Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / What will Netflix do with Warner Brothers?
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- 1:06Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
- 1:09Speaker 2: Friday here on the Financial Exchange, Chuck, Mike and talker
- 1:13Speaker 2: with you, And just a few minutes ago, at ten
- 1:16Speaker 2: am Eastern Time, we received the PCE, the Personal Consumption
- 1:22Speaker 2: Expenditures data for the month of September. Now, Mike, I
- 1:28Speaker 2: got a couple bones to.
- 1:29Speaker 3: Pick here, I bet you do.
- 1:31Speaker 4: Well.
- 1:31Speaker 2: It's it's really just one to be honest. So the BLS,
- 1:35Speaker 2: not the BOS. So this is a PC comes from
- 1:37Speaker 2: the Census Bureau rights deal. Well, yeah, Census Burero. Sorry,
- 1:42Speaker 2: so the Census Bureau needed some time to get you know,
- 1:46Speaker 2: spooled back up for the release of the PCE data. Mike,
- 1:50Speaker 2: what time does the PCE data normally come out on
- 1:52Speaker 2: the last Friday of every month. It's not ten am,
- 1:57Speaker 2: eight thirty am.
- 1:59Speaker 4: Why there need the X It always it's always an
- 2:03Speaker 4: extra hour and a half.
- 2:04Speaker 2: What they need the extra hour and a half for?
- 2:06Speaker 2: Like the the date is already two months out of date.
- 2:10Speaker 3: Are you guys sure that it comes out of a thirty.
- 2:12Speaker 4: Michael positive, I know that the BLS data does. Michael
- 2:16Speaker 4: didn't look at this guy, Michael, I am doubt ye.
- 2:20Speaker 2: Against buddy Buddy boy allow me to. Just as an example,
- 2:25Speaker 2: I'm gonna go forward. I'm pulling up my calendar for
- 2:27Speaker 2: the end of this month, and where are you just
- 2:31Speaker 2: even scheduled yet? Hang on, let me see if they
- 2:33Speaker 2: even have it on the calendar yet. December December fifth, Oh,
- 2:37Speaker 2: here we go, December twel I know that's uh the see,
- 2:40Speaker 2: everything's weird because they don't have the normal schedule. No,
- 2:45Speaker 2: this is GDP report. That's not gonna do it. But yeah,
- 2:47Speaker 2: it's it's a thirty. Okay again enough I will get
- 2:51Speaker 2: it every single month. It's a thirty. So like, what
- 2:54Speaker 2: do you need the extra hour and a half for?
- 2:57Speaker 2: Like what did you have to like run it over
- 2:59Speaker 2: to the White House or something that you have to
- 3:01Speaker 2: run it to the Treasury? Do you have to run
- 3:03Speaker 2: it to the Fed leg what's going on? Guys? You know?
- 3:08Speaker 2: Can you just get me the report at eight thirty?
- 3:10Speaker 2: But I digress. The good News report came in exactly
- 3:13Speaker 2: as expected, which is nice for something that didn't matter anyways,
- 3:16Speaker 2: because it's two months out of date. Core PC point
- 3:20Speaker 2: two percent for the month, headline point three percent for
- 3:23Speaker 2: the month, which means that we now have both core
- 3:26Speaker 2: and headline PCE at two point eight percent for the
- 3:29Speaker 2: last twelve months through September. Again not really going to
- 3:33Speaker 2: influence policy in any way, shape or form, simply because
- 3:37Speaker 2: this is old data. Also included in this report is
- 3:40Speaker 2: personal income and personal spending, which we don't really need
- 3:43Speaker 2: because we've already gotten retail sales data. Not retail sales data,
- 3:47Speaker 2: but retail earnings. For Q three, of which September is
- 3:50Speaker 2: part of, they were fine, personal income up point four
- 3:53Speaker 2: percent for the month, personal spending up point three So overall,
- 3:57Speaker 2: you look at this and look, if i'm grading it out,
- 3:59Speaker 2: I say, okay, it's a solid B. I'd like that
- 4:02Speaker 2: headline number to be zero point two percent rather than
- 4:04Speaker 2: point three, But everything else being equal, it's fine. It's
- 4:09Speaker 2: not gonna matter. And yeah, that's what I got on it. Yeah.
- 4:15Speaker 4: So, as Barons said, this is clearly the most important
- 4:19Speaker 4: day in markets of the year, I don't.
- 4:22Speaker 2: Know if it is. And p rose a whole ten
- 4:24Speaker 2: points after the release.
- 4:25Speaker 4: Maybe they meant for the rest of the year, even then,
- 4:28Speaker 4: I have a tough time. No, they didn't say that.
- 4:30Speaker 4: They said for the entire year. This was always going
- 4:35Speaker 4: to be just a confirmation report that only mattered if
- 4:39Speaker 4: it was amazingly bad or amazingly good, and it was neither.
- 4:43Speaker 4: It was just fine, and repeated the same information that
- 4:47Speaker 4: we already know, which is inflation remains somewhat uncomfortably high,
- 4:52Speaker 4: but not so high that the FED is all that
- 4:55Speaker 4: willing to do much about it.
- 4:57Speaker 2: Which I will say, this does set us up nicely
- 5:00Speaker 2: for next week, because next week we got some fun stuff.
- 5:03Speaker 2: We get jolts for the first time in I don't
- 5:07Speaker 2: know when's the last jolts that we got. It was
- 5:08Speaker 2: the August one, so that must have been in early September.
- 5:12Speaker 2: It was late September. It was September thirtieth that we
- 5:15Speaker 2: got it, yea. So we get jolts for the first
- 5:17Speaker 2: time in a couple months. Coming out on Tuesday is
- 5:21Speaker 2: at ten am. Jolts.
- 5:22Speaker 4: Is that job openings report, So you remember, you know,
- 5:25Speaker 4: telling us telling you that there were two job open
- 5:28Speaker 4: top two, oh my goodness, two job openings for every
- 5:31Speaker 4: person looking for.
- 5:32Speaker 3: Work back in twenty twenty one. That's where we get
- 5:35Speaker 3: that data point from.
- 5:37Speaker 2: So next week we've got that. On Tuesday, Wednesday, we've
- 5:40Speaker 2: got a FED meeting with a summary of economic projections.
- 5:44Speaker 2: So that's going to be fun to work through. I
- 5:48Speaker 2: will raise one interesting question for you, Mike, does the
- 5:51Speaker 2: summary of economic projections matter? Given that we are going
- 5:56Speaker 2: to have a new FED chair next year who may
- 5:59Speaker 2: try to influenced the Open Market Committee differently than Jay Powell?
- 6:04Speaker 2: Has interesting thought exercise, Hey, does the fedce projections for
- 6:09Speaker 2: interest rates and things matter? If you may see some
- 6:12Speaker 2: turnover there. Thursday, we're gonna be getting jobless claims, as
- 6:16Speaker 2: we always do on Thursdays, and then we're back into
- 6:20Speaker 2: the Fed speaker schedule with three of them scheduled for
- 6:23Speaker 2: Friday morning.
- 6:24Speaker 3: Fun.
- 6:26Speaker 2: So next week will be a fun one. But yeah,
- 6:29Speaker 2: this inflation report, I've got really nothing else on it,
- 6:32Speaker 2: quite honestly. Is there anything else you want to touch
- 6:35Speaker 2: on here?
- 6:36Speaker 1: No?
- 6:37Speaker 4: Again, this was a outdated report that I hate saying
- 6:42Speaker 4: that things don't matter on this program that we cover
- 6:45Speaker 4: because it doesn't matter. It only mattered if it was
- 6:49Speaker 4: really bad or really good, and it was just kind
- 6:51Speaker 4: of the same basic old fine that's indicating. Yeah, inflation's
- 6:55Speaker 4: running close to three percent and a lot of people
- 6:58Speaker 4: are uncomfortable with that.
- 7:00Speaker 2: Let's now turn speaking of inflation, this piece from the
- 7:02Speaker 2: Financial Times there's a black hole where central banks theory
- 7:06Speaker 2: of inflation should be. Michael, what is the black hole?
- 7:12Speaker 4: The black hole that they are describing, I guess is
- 7:17Speaker 4: whether or not we are trying to target back down
- 7:19Speaker 4: to two percent and whether that target truly matters in
- 7:22Speaker 4: today's age and today's age. Is that your view of
- 7:26Speaker 4: what they're trying to describe here, Yes, and.
- 7:28Speaker 2: I think two things can be true at the same time.
- 7:31Speaker 2: It's a conversation worth having. It's probably not a conversation
- 7:35Speaker 2: worth having just after you've come off the highest inflation
- 7:37Speaker 2: in forty years.
- 7:40Speaker 4: So you mean readjusting your targeted inflation level? Yes, yeah,
- 7:44Speaker 4: you lose all credibility if you go and do that.
- 7:47Speaker 2: I think you know exactly the time to discuss an
- 7:51Speaker 2: appropriate level of inflation is when you've already been at
- 7:56Speaker 2: what most people would consider to be an appropriate level
- 7:59Speaker 2: of inflation for an extended period of time. It is
- 8:03Speaker 2: not appropriate to discuss this at a time when hey,
- 8:09Speaker 2: like again, like you just look at the year over
- 8:10Speaker 2: your numbers, and that's that's all I'm doing here. I'm
- 8:12Speaker 2: not doing anything fancy. I'm not like trying to, you know,
- 8:16Speaker 2: make whatever happen. But two years ago, two and a
- 8:19Speaker 2: half really, Like, beginning of twenty three, headline inflation was
- 8:23Speaker 2: still at six percent? Are we really okay with two
- 8:27Speaker 2: and a half years after that? Being like, Hey, what's
- 8:30Speaker 2: the appropriate level of inflation that central banks should allow?
- 8:34Speaker 3: No, you go back, I'm not.
- 8:35Speaker 2: I'm not quite there. Now, there is a valid discussion.
- 8:39Speaker 2: Mark Fandady's talked about this a lot. Is two percent
- 8:43Speaker 2: like the right level to have? Thank you? Mark? Oh yes,
- 8:48Speaker 2: say right back at you. Uh? Is two percent the
- 8:51Speaker 2: right level to have?
- 8:53Speaker 1: Like?
- 8:53Speaker 2: How do you know what? You know? What level you
- 8:55Speaker 2: should be targeting? I think that's a reasonable question to
- 9:00Speaker 2: ask because there is a wide disagreement amongst economists who basically,
- 9:05Speaker 2: like the consensus that you get to is yeah, low
- 9:08Speaker 2: single digits of inflation is fine, but low single digits
- 9:13Speaker 2: can mean one, two, three, four, Like again, like, there's
- 9:15Speaker 2: there's a range that you get to there, and I
- 9:20Speaker 2: think that ultimately it's one of those where, in my
- 9:26Speaker 2: personal opinion, which doesn't really count for much, I'd like
- 9:30Speaker 2: to see central banks eventually, not now, because you need
- 9:34Speaker 2: the credibility now get rid of specific inflation targeting goals, which,
- 9:39Speaker 2: by the way, the FED only put in place in
- 9:40Speaker 2: the last decade. Like the FED never had a two
- 9:44Speaker 2: percent mandate before the mid twenty tens.
- 9:49Speaker 4: They also have redefined, already redefined that inflation target they
- 9:53Speaker 4: have in twenty twenty they said, no, we're not targeting
- 9:56Speaker 4: two percent exactly, We're targeting an average of two percent.
- 9:59Speaker 2: And then this here with their framework revision, they said, well,
- 10:02Speaker 2: we might, you know, want to modify how we look
- 10:04Speaker 2: at that, and maybe that's not the best way to
- 10:06Speaker 2: do it either. So I think what it what it
- 10:10Speaker 2: comes back to for me is if there is a
- 10:14Speaker 2: two percent target and you never hit it, then is
- 10:16Speaker 2: it really a two percent target? The answer is no, right, yep,
- 10:22Speaker 2: you know that. That's like me being like, hey, you
- 10:24Speaker 2: know what, i'd like to be five eight, I ain't
- 10:30Speaker 2: gonna hit it like I'm I'm I'm just not. It's
- 10:33Speaker 2: it's I'm I'm locked in at five foot seven. So
- 10:37Speaker 2: I think ultimately, a goal and a target has to
- 10:40Speaker 2: be achievable in order for it to mean something. And
- 10:45Speaker 2: given that we have never hit two percent for you know,
- 10:49Speaker 2: a full decade, and given that some of the things
- 10:52Speaker 2: that even allowed us to get into the low twos
- 10:54Speaker 2: are reversing in terms of you know, globalization and things
- 10:57Speaker 2: like that. I don't know if keeping that two percent
- 11:00Speaker 2: target specifically is reasonable or if you know, we just
- 11:04Speaker 2: move back to you know, the FED wants to keep
- 11:05Speaker 2: you know, inflation in a low range for maximum price stability,
- 11:08Speaker 2: and they audiyatah, kind of lean that way. Anything else
- 11:12Speaker 2: that you want to add, Mike.
- 11:13Speaker 4: No, let's move on from the current talk about the
- 11:17Speaker 4: Fed and move on to some more exciting stuff.
- 11:20Speaker 2: Yeah, we got a fun one to discuss here, quick break.
- 11:22Speaker 2: Then Netflix and Warner Brothers trying to get together in
- 11:26Speaker 2: a merger. A lot of juice on this one. Will
- 11:29Speaker 2: discuss when we return.
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- 12:11Speaker 2: Right, So this one's got a lot of This one
- 12:16Speaker 2: might take more than a segment to get through because
- 12:18Speaker 2: there's a lot of juice in this one. So overnight
- 12:22Speaker 2: Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery agreeing to a seventy two
- 12:26Speaker 2: billion dollar cash and stock deal. Total value the deal
- 12:32Speaker 2: against seventy two billion dollars. There's some debt out there,
- 12:34Speaker 2: so enterprise values about eighty two point seven billion dollars.
- 12:39Speaker 2: First of all, this is something where we've been seeing,
- 12:41Speaker 2: you know, reports of bidding on Warner brother Discovery by
- 12:45Speaker 2: I think the three main suitors, Mike, if I'm familiar
- 12:48Speaker 2: with it. You've got Netflix who appears to have won
- 12:53Speaker 2: at least at this point, Comcast and Paramount.
- 12:57Speaker 4: Correct YEP, wanted to merge it with NBC and build
- 13:02Speaker 4: this new entire network that the CEO. This is the
- 13:07Speaker 4: surprising part to me, is like that deal would have
- 13:10Speaker 4: put the CEO of of Warner Brothers in charge of
- 13:14Speaker 4: NBC in this newly created network, and yet they're going
- 13:17Speaker 4: for the Netflix deal.
- 13:18Speaker 2: So there's a few different things that I want to discuss.
- 13:21Speaker 2: The first, not first, but like, just in no particular order,
- 13:25Speaker 2: what this would mean for you know, Warner Brothers, Discovery
- 13:28Speaker 2: programming and studios and and you know video and movies
- 13:32Speaker 2: and things like that.
- 13:33Speaker 4: Because remember they you know, beyond HBO which everyone's talking about,
- 13:37Speaker 4: they own what CNN, t N T all all the time,
- 13:42Speaker 4: all of the all of the Turner Broaditoria broadcasting stuff,
- 13:45Speaker 4: which is a lot of network television.
- 13:48Speaker 2: So I think that when you look at you know,
- 13:54Speaker 2: a like, what what could happen to that? That's one piece.
- 13:56Speaker 2: The second is how like we do do we think
- 13:58Speaker 2: it is that this deal and up going through? Because
- 14:01Speaker 2: I think that's a major piece here. And the third
- 14:04Speaker 2: thing that I also want to do is just and
- 14:06Speaker 2: I'm gonna kick things off with this, the freaking history
- 14:11Speaker 2: of this company at this point is just insane, Okay, like.
- 14:14Speaker 4: It it really is, Go ahead and start there because
- 14:17Speaker 4: that is useful context.
- 14:18Speaker 2: So remember so when you look at where this has
- 14:21Speaker 2: come from, Time Warner was formed through the merger of
- 14:25Speaker 2: Time and Warner Brothers back in the early nineteen nineties,
- 14:29Speaker 2: and basically you had them you know, merged together, and
- 14:34Speaker 2: at that point, like the big thing on on the
- 14:36Speaker 2: Warner side, you had the studios, you had the broadcasting,
- 14:39Speaker 2: and you at HBO, Like those were kind of the
- 14:41Speaker 2: three pieces there. Time Warner then decides, obviously go to
- 14:46Speaker 2: go through the AOL Time Warner merger, which I think
- 14:49Speaker 2: we all remember fondly, you know, like just just again,
- 14:54Speaker 2: like the the biggest bust of a merger in history,
- 14:59Speaker 2: one hundred and eight billion do it's just like absolutely nuts,
- 15:02Speaker 2: uh And then you see, you know, okay, that finally
- 15:06Speaker 2: gets you know, cleared out and you end up with
- 15:08Speaker 2: this slimming down and you know everything, and then AT
- 15:12Speaker 2: and T comes along and says, hey, we're gonna buy
- 15:14Speaker 2: you for one hundred and eight billion dollars as well. Okay,
- 15:18Speaker 2: like and we talked about it at the time. We're like, guys,
- 15:20Speaker 2: this is this is a horrible fit. You've got. You've
- 15:24Speaker 2: got a bunch of telecom people that are gonna try
- 15:26Speaker 2: to run a movie studio in HBO that doesn't seem well.
- 15:29Speaker 2: And they go through like sixty four different names for
- 15:31Speaker 2: HBO during the ownership, and finally after like two and
- 15:34Speaker 2: a half years, they're like, no, we we didn't mean
- 15:37Speaker 2: to do this. We can can can we take it back? No,
- 15:40Speaker 2: we can't take it back. Okay, we got we gotta
- 15:42Speaker 2: spin this off because this is not a good fit
- 15:44Speaker 2: for us, and we're sorry that we ever tried to
- 15:46Speaker 2: do this. So AT and T says, hey, kick all
- 15:49Speaker 2: the Warner stuff back out, but in doing so, it
- 15:52Speaker 2: goes through this whole mess of a thing that ends
- 15:55Speaker 2: up finally basically ending up with Warner having to merge
- 15:58Speaker 2: with Discovery in order to make an entity that anyone
- 16:01Speaker 2: actually wanted to own in that format. So now you've
- 16:05Speaker 2: got Warner Brothers Discovery out there, and pretty much, you know,
- 16:09Speaker 2: Warner Brothers Discovery is like, yeah, you know, we've kind
- 16:14Speaker 2: of been having some trouble operating, you know, on our own,
- 16:18Speaker 2: and a year ago they say we might try to
- 16:21Speaker 2: you know, sell ourselves and spin off the linear television,
- 16:23Speaker 2: which we've talked about like why companies are doing that.
- 16:27Speaker 2: And so the thing that's kind of wild to me
- 16:30Speaker 2: is that Warner's just had this run for the last
- 16:32Speaker 2: thirty forty almost forty years now, thirty five years, where
- 16:37Speaker 2: it's just gone through failed merger after failed merger after
- 16:40Speaker 2: failed merger, and somehow HBO has kept kicking along despite that.
- 16:48Speaker 2: It's basically the only thing that's been working there. And
- 16:52Speaker 2: you know, you've got the the intellectual property beyond that
- 16:58Speaker 2: is you know, there's so interesting things there. I mean,
- 17:01Speaker 2: they've got the DC comic stuff that no one's really
- 17:04Speaker 2: been able to do anything with Batman and Superman. They've
- 17:07Speaker 2: got Harry Potter, which I don't know what anyone really
- 17:10Speaker 2: does with it now. It had a good run series characters.
- 17:13Speaker 4: Yeah, HBO has been producing a brand new, entire new
- 17:17Speaker 4: series of shows.
- 17:18Speaker 2: You how much time stuff. You've got Game of Thrones,
- 17:21Speaker 2: which was a big hit. Lately, the you know, spin
- 17:23Speaker 2: offs of that have been you know, mixed, and then
- 17:25Speaker 2: they got all like the cartoons and all that stuff. Sure,
- 17:28Speaker 2: but so like you look at this and to me,
- 17:30Speaker 2: the big the two big questions are what would Netflix
- 17:35Speaker 2: do with the movie studio in terms of theatrical releases?
- 17:39Speaker 2: And do they let HBO just be HBO or do
- 17:42Speaker 2: they try to bring it into the rest of Netflix's
- 17:44Speaker 2: streaming realm.
- 17:46Speaker 4: Your thoughts, huge questions So on the movie studio piece, right, Like,
- 17:51Speaker 4: they did not have a Hollywood movie studio, and I've
- 17:55Speaker 4: listened to other people described this as whether you want
- 17:57Speaker 4: it or not. Netflix felt as though they had to
- 18:00Speaker 4: go and do this. They've got a lot in Hollywood
- 18:02Speaker 4: now which farbia from me, I don't fully understand why
- 18:06Speaker 4: that's that important, but seemed hugely important to them, and
- 18:09Speaker 4: so they felt they needed to buy it. But yeah,
- 18:14Speaker 4: what do they do with that? I mean, Netflix doesn't
- 18:16Speaker 4: release movies like every other movie.
- 18:18Speaker 2: Studio, and they've said as part of this, one of
- 18:22Speaker 2: the things that could be coming is a compression of
- 18:24Speaker 2: the theatrical window, which means, hey, how much time does
- 18:28Speaker 2: a movie have as an exclusive in theater as opposed
- 18:32Speaker 2: to being able to be released onto Netflix or HBO
- 18:36Speaker 2: or However they would decide.
- 18:37Speaker 4: To do it right, and they weren't really big enough
- 18:40Speaker 4: as themselves to move the rest of the industry in
- 18:42Speaker 4: that direction, they suddenly would be right if they want
- 18:46Speaker 4: to say with this acquisition that hey, we're now going
- 18:49Speaker 4: to really apply the pressure to movie theaters, which already
- 18:51Speaker 4: are sucking wind. But if we really want to apply
- 18:54Speaker 4: the pressure, they can afford to do so now with
- 18:56Speaker 4: this acquisition.
- 18:58Speaker 2: So I think ultimately then we get to the question
- 19:02Speaker 2: that is the biggest one out there, which is will
- 19:07Speaker 2: this deal actually be allowed to come to fruition If
- 19:12Speaker 2: it were estimates that it would close somewhere in the
- 19:15Speaker 2: next twelve to eighteen months, so probably end of twenty six,
- 19:19Speaker 2: maybe first half of twenty seven is what we're looking at.
- 19:23Speaker 2: But will the deal actually be allowed to close. Let's
- 19:26Speaker 2: take a quick break and then we'll discuss that when
- 19:29Speaker 2: we return.
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- 20:19Speaker 1: For all you've done. Time now for Wall Street. Watch
- 20:24Speaker 1: a complete look at what's moving markets so far today
- 20:27Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 20:30Speaker 5: Market term positive territory to close out the week as
- 20:33Speaker 5: traders react to a core PCE index for the month
- 20:36Speaker 5: of September that came in line with forecasts. Outside of
- 20:39Speaker 5: the inflation reading, the big news comes from the media world,
- 20:43Speaker 5: where Netflix has agreed to a deal to buy Warner Brothers.
- 20:47Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is up four tenths of a
- 20:49Speaker 5: percent or two hundred and four points. Highre SMP five
- 20:52Speaker 5: hundred and up over half a percent, NASDAC up nearly
- 20:55Speaker 5: three quarters of a percent or one hundred and seventy
- 20:58Speaker 5: one points. R US two thousand is edging higher. Tenure
- 21:01Speaker 5: treasure yield up one basis point at four point one
- 21:04Speaker 5: point one eight percent, and crude oil up one percent higher,
- 21:08Speaker 5: trading just above sixty dollars a barrel. As we discuss,
- 21:12Speaker 5: Netflix struck a seventy two billion dollar deal for Warner Brothers,
- 21:16Speaker 5: beating out bids for from Comcast in paramount. With the deal,
- 21:21Speaker 5: Netflix will add Warner's TV movie libraries, as well as
- 21:24Speaker 5: HBO and HBO Max shows. The deal is expected to
- 21:28Speaker 5: close in twelve to eighteen months, pending regulatory approval. Netflix
- 21:33Speaker 5: shares are now up over one percent after seeing losses
- 21:36Speaker 5: in pre market trading, while Warner Brothers is up three percent. Meanwhile,
- 21:40Speaker 5: digital document signing company DocuSign lifted its annual sales outlook
- 21:45Speaker 5: after quarterly results beat expectations driven by subscription growth. However,
- 21:49Speaker 5: the stock is dropping six percent as some analysts believe
- 21:52Speaker 5: the company's guidance may be conservative. Elsewhere, shares in Victoria's
- 21:56Speaker 5: Secret surging seventeen percent after the launder and apparel company
- 22:01Speaker 5: posted a narrower than expected quarterly loss in a nine
- 22:05Speaker 5: percent increase in net sales. The company also raised its
- 22:08Speaker 5: full year outlook, saying it's will positioned for a successful
- 22:12Speaker 5: holiday season. All to Beauty raised its full year sales outlook,
- 22:15Speaker 5: sending shares on the personal care care retailer up sixteen
- 22:19Speaker 5: percent and shares in Hewlett Packard Enterprise dipping after the
- 22:23Speaker 5: server in cloud software company logged lower than expected revenue
- 22:27Speaker 5: as customers hit delay in developing their AI products. I'm
- 22:34Speaker 5: Tucker Silva and that is welst You're watch and remember
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- 22:56Speaker 2: All right, so we're discussing the Netflix Warner Brothers Discovery
- 23:01Speaker 2: merger and at let's see nine twenty six am this morning,
- 23:07Speaker 2: CNBC pushed through an alert with this headline, Trump administration
- 23:12Speaker 2: views Netflix and Warner Brothers deals with quote heavy skepticism.
- 23:16Speaker 2: Senior official says, uh, and obviously you've got you know,
- 23:21Speaker 2: Paramount lawyers are already saying. And basically what this boils
- 23:24Speaker 2: down to is Paramount really wants to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
- 23:29Speaker 3: Yes.
- 23:29Speaker 2: Uh. And the Paramount is it the the CEO or
- 23:33Speaker 2: what's the what's the what's what? David Ellison is, that's
- 23:38Speaker 2: the CEO? Yeah, with Paramount. So David Ellison is Larry
- 23:44Speaker 2: Ellison's son. Larry Elson runs Oracle and has a really
- 23:48Speaker 2: good relationship with the Trump White House. And so, you know,
- 23:53Speaker 2: one of the thoughts on this while this bidding was
- 23:55Speaker 2: going on was kind of, hey, like, Paramount probably has
- 23:58Speaker 2: to be seen as the front runner because it would
- 24:01Speaker 2: be just you know, again, it just fits when you
- 24:04Speaker 2: look at the ease of kind of navigating the regulatory landscape.
- 24:09Speaker 2: So Paramount is basically already pushing back on this. The
- 24:13Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal reporting that They've already filed a letter
- 24:18Speaker 2: to lawyers from Warner Brothers Discovery saying, quote, acquiring Warner's
- 24:22Speaker 2: streaming and studio assets will entrenched and extent Netflix's global
- 24:25Speaker 2: dominance in a matter not allowed by domestic or foreign
- 24:28Speaker 2: competition laws. So this gets at the real question, which
- 24:32Speaker 2: is is there an anti trust case to be made
- 24:36Speaker 2: against Netflix being able to buy Warner Brothers Discovery or
- 24:42Speaker 2: will it be able to go through?
- 24:45Speaker 4: So the second piece to this all too, is is
- 24:48Speaker 4: Paramount's antitrust side any better than Netflix's. That's the second
- 24:54Speaker 4: side of that question that you really have to answer
- 24:56Speaker 4: as well.
- 24:57Speaker 2: So the place that I get to is the one
- 25:01Speaker 2: company that I think can definitively say it's not in
- 25:04Speaker 2: a better position from an anti trust perspective is Comcast.
- 25:09Speaker 2: Comcast again already owns literally like the distribution of cable channels,
- 25:15Speaker 2: already has movie studios, already has its own, you know,
- 25:18Speaker 2: intellectual property. It's got the whole thing. And it's revenue
- 25:20Speaker 2: is one hundred and twenty three billion dollars. In every respect,
- 25:24Speaker 2: it's a bigger company than the other two. Netflix does
- 25:27Speaker 2: about forty three billion dollars in revenue. They again don't
- 25:32Speaker 2: really do anything on the movie side, but they've got,
- 25:34Speaker 2: you know, a significant market share on the streaming side.
- 25:38Speaker 2: But the question is, like how big is that market share?
- 25:41Speaker 2: And like, what are you actually comparing Netflix to Netflix?
- 25:46Speaker 2: Is going to make the comparison. Hey, our biggest competitors
- 25:49Speaker 2: are not just other streaming companies. It's YouTube, it's TikTok,
- 25:53Speaker 2: it's video games. Because these are things that they've said
- 25:55Speaker 2: all along, by the way.
- 25:56Speaker 4: And I buy that this is competition for I it's
- 26:01Speaker 4: genuinely by that. The real competition definitely is Disney and
- 26:07Speaker 4: Hulu and Hbo Max that they are buying Apple. These
- 26:13Speaker 4: are prime video. I forgot to mention, they're right up
- 26:16Speaker 4: there in terms of subscribers. But go look at what
- 26:20Speaker 4: your kids and grandkids are watching easily as much eyeball
- 26:24Speaker 4: time as going towards YouTube and TikTok and other social
- 26:28Speaker 4: media video streaming sites as these dedicated ones. And so
- 26:33Speaker 4: I don't know, I mean, I don't claim to fully
- 26:36Speaker 4: understand the direction that anti trust goes and whether or
- 26:38Speaker 4: not this actually goes in front of a court or
- 26:41Speaker 4: you know, the administ you know, the White House can
- 26:43Speaker 4: really pressure this away. But I compared to other deals
- 26:49Speaker 4: that have gone through. Have a really tough time saying
- 26:51Speaker 4: that this is a monopolistic concern of mine.
- 26:56Speaker 2: You know, Paramount Skydance does about twenty eight billion in
- 26:58Speaker 2: revenue compared to Netflix at forty three, so it's about
- 27:01Speaker 2: two thirds of the size. But already has movie studios,
- 27:04Speaker 2: already has you know, streaming, already has cable channels. So
- 27:07Speaker 2: you look at and you're like, okay, like there's you know,
- 27:09Speaker 2: there's all this stuff that already exists there where which.
- 27:13Speaker 4: One do you think more jobs get eliminated by? I
- 27:16Speaker 4: know that's not the anti trust. I think that honestly,
- 27:20Speaker 4: Paramount buying you end up killing more jobs than if
- 27:23Speaker 4: you have Netflix buying.
- 27:25Speaker 2: Because of the if they take a hatchet to the studio.
- 27:28Speaker 3: I think Paramount would Yeah, why wouldn't.
- 27:30Speaker 2: You Maybe you want to produce just more movies? I
- 27:34Speaker 2: I I don't know. I mean, if you have the
- 27:36Speaker 2: dollars and the IP, wouldn't you want to produce all those?
- 27:41Speaker 2: Like if if let's say Paramount buys this, and like
- 27:45Speaker 2: you think about the intellectual property that's there, is Paramount
- 27:48Speaker 2: going to say, hey, we're just not gonna make Harry
- 27:50Speaker 2: Potter movies anymore.
- 27:51Speaker 4: No, I think they definitely do, and they just kill
- 27:54Speaker 4: half the writers. But I guess here's the not literally yes,
- 27:59Speaker 4: don't literally killing here. Here's here's the place that I
- 28:04Speaker 4: get to though, Like Paramount already has its own stuff
- 28:06Speaker 4: that it's producing. Yep, if your existing writers are already
- 28:11Speaker 4: busy doing that, don't you need the new writers in
- 28:15Speaker 4: order to produce the additional content?
- 28:17Speaker 3: Well?
- 28:18Speaker 2: Or are we just gonna AI ourselves AI the living
- 28:21Speaker 2: hell out of this? Well, then screw this like that.
- 28:23Speaker 2: No one should produce content. It's gonna suck.
- 28:26Speaker 4: So in either case, what I come back to, I
- 28:29Speaker 4: don't know whether or not this deal gets accepted. I
- 28:31Speaker 4: don't know that the White if the White House, you know,
- 28:34Speaker 4: exerts enough pressure to have Netflix abandon the deal. I
- 28:38Speaker 4: personally have zero concerns about this from an antitrust perspective.
- 28:41Speaker 3: None.
- 28:43Speaker 4: I do not think this is a big enough deal
- 28:45Speaker 4: to be concerned about. HBO, Max and Discovery, from what
- 28:48Speaker 4: I saw, had something like one hundred and twenty million subscribers.
- 28:51Speaker 4: Netflix is at three hundred million. Amazon's got two hundred million.
- 28:55Speaker 4: I know that's because they're prime members. Disney has one
- 28:58Speaker 4: hundred and twenty eight plus million, and then YouTube, I
- 29:02Speaker 4: mean paid's YouTube premium has one hundred and twenty five million.
- 29:05Speaker 4: Forget about just the ones that go to it without paying.
- 29:10Speaker 4: I have no concerns about this, especially given that they
- 29:13Speaker 4: are rolling off the network TV and not participating in
- 29:17Speaker 4: that that's going to go get acquired by somebody else.
- 29:19Speaker 4: I'd have more concerns about that side. From a competition perspective, It's.
- 29:24Speaker 2: Tough for me to say I have no antitrust concerns
- 29:27Speaker 2: because I mean, quite honestly, in a perfect world, I
- 29:31Speaker 2: wouldn't want any of these mergers to go through. Sure,
- 29:34Speaker 2: like if you just look at it just from a
- 29:36Speaker 2: dollar value perspective, which is not like the perfect way
- 29:39Speaker 2: to look at this, I know, but like, let's just
- 29:42Speaker 2: just just hear me out for a second. The nineteen
- 29:45Speaker 2: nineties saw two mergers that would have been that are
- 29:49Speaker 2: bigger from a dollar value perspective. The two thousands saw
- 29:54Speaker 2: four mergers that were bigger from a dollar value perspective,
- 29:59Speaker 2: not an inflation justin terms, but I'm just talking like
- 30:01Speaker 2: nominally even in inflation adjusted, you know, it's it's bigger.
- 30:05Speaker 2: In the two thousands, they were seven that were bigger
- 30:07Speaker 2: than in the nineties there were you know, a dozen
- 30:10Speaker 2: or so, But like you also look at some of
- 30:13Speaker 2: these ones that fall into that category, and you say,
- 30:16Speaker 2: should we have been comfortable with these deals happening?
- 30:20Speaker 1: Like?
- 30:20Speaker 2: Do do we like as an example, that in twenty nineteen,
- 30:25Speaker 2: United Technologies was allowed to buy raytheon I dope because
- 30:29Speaker 2: now there's far less competition for government contracts, which means,
- 30:33Speaker 2: you know, let's less problems with bidding. Do we like
- 30:36Speaker 2: that in twenty fifteen ab InBev was allowed to buy
- 30:38Speaker 2: sab Miller. I don't know, like it makes it harder
- 30:42Speaker 2: to compete in the beer space. Do we like that?
- 30:47Speaker 2: You know in I don't know, like do we like
- 30:52Speaker 2: here's a recent one twenty twenty two. Do we like
- 30:54Speaker 2: that Microsoft was able to buy Activision Blizzard and now
- 30:56Speaker 2: they're starting to do the exact things from an availability
- 30:59Speaker 2: and price standpoint that every anti trust person said, what
- 31:02Speaker 2: happen as a result of that deal?
- 31:04Speaker 4: Let me take my words back then, I do have
- 31:06Speaker 4: concerns about it from a competition perspective, and I, if
- 31:12Speaker 4: I were able to judge these things, would prefer that
- 31:14Speaker 4: none of this gets rolled up in the context of
- 31:18Speaker 4: all the deals that you meant just mentioned that we're
- 31:20Speaker 4: perfectly allowable and we didn't have any administration shut down
- 31:27Speaker 4: or the court system shut down.
- 31:29Speaker 3: I don't see how you can judge this one any differently.
- 31:32Speaker 2: Which I think is fair, which is given all of
- 31:35Speaker 2: the other deals that have been allowed to go through.
- 31:38Speaker 2: It's kind of a tough put to look at this
- 31:40Speaker 2: one and be like, Hey, Netflix, Warner brother Discovery is
- 31:43Speaker 2: the straw that breaks the camel's back, right with it.
- 31:46Speaker 2: It's kind of a tough putt. Let's take a quick
- 31:49Speaker 2: break when we return. What do we want to talk
- 31:53Speaker 2: about when we come back. Let's see, Yeah, let's talk
- 31:59Speaker 2: about retirement, kind of year end portfolio review.
- 32:03Speaker 1: After this text, does six one seven, three, six, two
- 32:07Speaker 1: one three eight five with your comments and questions about
- 32:09Speaker 1: today's show. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The
- 32:15Speaker 1: Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our page
- 32:19Speaker 1: and stay up to date on breaking business news All morning.
- 32:22Speaker 1: Long Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 32:27Speaker 5: The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
- 32:29Speaker 5: American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Planning is well underway for
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- 33:00Speaker 2: Mike, we get a piece in Barns. Retirerees, it's time
- 33:02Speaker 2: for your year end portfolio review. Here's what to do.
- 33:06Speaker 3: I do so first things first, if you're actually talking
- 33:09Speaker 3: about a year.
- 33:10Speaker 4: End portfolio review, the main thing to just make sure
- 33:14Speaker 4: you've done is the stuff that has to be done
- 33:16Speaker 4: by December thirty.
- 33:17Speaker 3: First, make sure you do it the required.
- 33:18Speaker 4: Minimum distributions, the tax loss harvesting, if you're going to
- 33:22Speaker 4: try and do so like those are items that actually
- 33:25Speaker 4: must be done by December thirty.
- 33:27Speaker 2: First.
- 33:27Speaker 4: If you're in good shape there, then I think you
- 33:29Speaker 4: can move on to the things in this article which
- 33:31Speaker 4: are genuinely helpful.
- 33:33Speaker 3: And I've got a few to add to the lists.
- 33:35Speaker 4: So one they you know, especially for retirees, I think
- 33:38Speaker 4: this is incredibly important consolidation. And I don't just mean
- 33:42Speaker 4: this when it comes to investment accounts. I mean this
- 33:44Speaker 4: when it comes to all financials. Right, if you have
- 33:47Speaker 4: bank accounts at three different banks, really ask yourself why
- 33:52Speaker 4: we really really drive down there, because it's going to
- 33:55Speaker 4: become more and more difficult to handle that plus the
- 33:58Speaker 4: four oh one ks plus five everything else down the road.
- 34:01Speaker 4: And even if you are perfect at it, just accept
- 34:04Speaker 4: the fact that if you're heading towards retirement, there's going
- 34:07Speaker 4: to come a day where you won't be able to
- 34:09Speaker 4: handle it and you're gonna need somebody else to try
- 34:11Speaker 4: and pick it all up. And that's a lot more
- 34:13Speaker 4: difficult when it's in nineteen different places. I'm not telling
- 34:16Speaker 4: you to trust any one individual with all of your money.
- 34:20Speaker 4: I am saying that simplify things as you get older
- 34:25Speaker 4: and throughout life is a pretty good general advice that
- 34:29Speaker 4: you can take because, well, Chuck, I'm sure you've seen
- 34:32Speaker 4: it too, but the time I've spent with loved you know,
- 34:35Speaker 4: client's children, trying to map out all the stuff it's.
- 34:39Speaker 3: It can be really messy. We talked about this one yesterday.
- 34:42Speaker 4: Diversify and actually diversify, which is more difficult to do
- 34:46Speaker 4: now than previously harder.
- 34:49Speaker 2: With the S and P is concentrated as it is,
- 34:51Speaker 2: You've got you know, a number of stocks, five or
- 34:53Speaker 2: six of them that make up five percent or north
- 34:56Speaker 2: in the S and P five hundred. You're not necessarily
- 35:00Speaker 2: a diversified as you think you are. If you just
- 35:03Speaker 2: own the S and P five hundred. It doesn't mean
- 35:05Speaker 2: that it's inherently, you know, good or bad. It just means,
- 35:09Speaker 2: from a diversification perspective, you've got more concentration risk in
- 35:12Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred than any other time
- 35:14Speaker 2: in its history.
- 35:16Speaker 4: Morning Star points out usefully, if you had a sixty
- 35:18Speaker 4: forty portfolio a decade ago, given where stocks have run,
- 35:22Speaker 4: you're now sitting in an eighty twenty portfolio. So that
- 35:25Speaker 4: stallication and maybe rebalancing, Yeah, you know, those are pretty
- 35:28Speaker 4: basic but important ones. They have a whole section about
- 35:32Speaker 4: bonds being back, you know, compared to previous times. I
- 35:37Speaker 4: won't debate that interest rates are higher than twenty twenty.
- 35:40Speaker 4: I will just say that it's not clear to me
- 35:44Speaker 4: that there won't be problems in the bond market, especially
- 35:46Speaker 4: in some corners of it.
- 35:48Speaker 3: So It's not.
- 35:49Speaker 4: Exactly a fool proof idea to say, oh yeah, all
- 35:54Speaker 4: bonds are back, as this article, you know, pretty boldly
- 35:58Speaker 4: poses in one of their subsections managing your Taxes. We
- 36:02Speaker 4: talked a bit about that other ones. There was a
- 36:05Speaker 4: piece that a client sent me Wednesday, Tuesday or Wednesday.
- 36:10Speaker 4: It was a piece about boomer candy, which we've talked
- 36:12Speaker 4: about a few times. Here's what I'm just gonna say
- 36:14Speaker 4: about investment products. Generally, you've seen the SMP now return
- 36:20Speaker 4: twenty percent, more than twenty percent per year for the
- 36:23Speaker 4: last three years trailing. When that happens, there's a lot
- 36:27Speaker 4: of different things. There are a lot of different schemes
- 36:29Speaker 4: that start popping up of ways to make money, and
- 36:33Speaker 4: some of them are completely untested. There's also a lot
- 36:36Speaker 4: of fomo fear of missing out that I think starts
- 36:40Speaker 4: to take place. And I would just very simply state,
- 36:44Speaker 4: when you're being sold in new investment product, make sure
- 36:47Speaker 4: that you understand what it is and how it's actually
- 36:49Speaker 4: going to benefit you, because a lot of the ones
- 36:51Speaker 4: that I've seen recently benefit one group, and that's the
- 36:54Speaker 4: people selling them. In any case, it's important to do
- 36:58Speaker 4: year end planning for your overall financial strategy. It's even
- 37:01Speaker 4: more important if you're on the cusp of retirement. If
- 37:05Speaker 4: you are sitting there and thinking that this stuff might
- 37:08Speaker 4: apply to you. Armstrong Advisory has a roadmap to help
- 37:12Speaker 4: you along that path. The numbers eight hundred three nine
- 37:15Speaker 4: three for zero zero one. This is what Chuck and
- 37:18Speaker 4: myself do with the rest of our day after doing
- 37:21Speaker 4: the financial exchange, and we would love to help you
- 37:23Speaker 4: out too. The number again, eight hundred three nine three
- 37:26Speaker 4: for zero zero one, or you can check us out
- 37:28Speaker 4: at Armstrong Advisory dot com.
- 37:30Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
- 37:32Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
- 37:35Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
- 37:38Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
- 37:41Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong make contact you to offer investment
- 37:44Speaker 1: advisory services.
- 37:45Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal with the headline two types of shoppers
- 37:48Speaker 2: are powering holiday spending, the wealthy and deal hunters. Mike,
- 37:51Speaker 2: is that ever different?
- 37:52Speaker 4: I was gonna say what I wrote down is like
- 37:54Speaker 4: as opposed to broke college bros and people that love
- 37:59Speaker 4: overpaying for products.
- 38:00Speaker 2: What are you?
- 38:00Speaker 4: What are you talking about? Who's had not been funded
- 38:03Speaker 4: by this group of individuals.
- 38:05Speaker 2: It's it's just I'm really struggling with this mic. Yeah,
- 38:10Speaker 2: I'm really starting to struggle with it. Yeah.
- 38:12Speaker 4: Usually when I go to the mall, it's all seven
- 38:14Speaker 4: year olds who are emptying their piggyback who usually do
- 38:17Speaker 4: all the holiday shopping.
- 38:19Speaker 2: You know, like I don't know. Yes, the people who
- 38:23Speaker 2: typically are shopping are people who either have money and
- 38:28Speaker 2: aren't concerned about price, or people.
- 38:30Speaker 4: Who the dogs, all of our pets are power. No,
- 38:36Speaker 4: it's always the wealthy and or people that want to deal.
- 38:40Speaker 4: It's always been the case, has been for a hundred years.
- 38:43Speaker 4: It's not going to change.
- 38:44Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here and when we return,
- 38:47Speaker 2: we got our two coming up. Paul Monica joins us
- 38:49Speaker 2: then as well, just a bit