Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Robert Patman: Otago University International Relations expert on China holding military drills around Taiwan in an attempt at political intimidation

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Robert Patman: Otago University International Relations expert on China holding military drills around Taiwan in an attempt at political intimidation · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Lots of texts coming on China, Taiwan, China's surrounding Taiwan,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and basically military drills yesterday. Good morning, Ryan. With America
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: currently led by a politically weak, lame duck president and
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: preoccupied with its election, it makes sense for China to
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: try and push the line of what's acceptable to try
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: and force political concessions from Taiwan right now, certainly before
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: a possible Trump presidency. Thanks Peter, Peter, thanks for your
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: call your text this morning. Robert Patman, the Ottaga University
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: international relations experts with me this morning. Robert, Good morning
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to you.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Good morning Ryan.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Do you reckon Pete's got a point?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I think he's got a point. We certainly are entering
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: what may be described as lame duck territory. But it's
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: fair to say that China has been quite concerned about
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: the president the administration running Taiwan for some time. William Lai,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: who's thought following in the steps of his predecessor in
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: saying that Taiwan is an independent country and that China
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: has no right to speak twenty three million people who
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: live in Taiwan.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's saying, you won't annex us. Basically and that's
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ut China is. Would they have done this if the
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: US wasn't busy in the Middle East, in Ukraine and
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: everywhere else, or would you think they would have done
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: this anyway?
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: I think they're testing the waters. This is part of
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: the long term policy. I mean, ideally, China would like
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: Taiwan to fall into their lap without the use of force.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: It's an attempt at political intimidation having these drills involving
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: warships and fipro jets. But Taiwan's having none of it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: It condemned the drills, and so it's military are holding
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: its positions at sea and in the air. And if
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: China hasn't ruled out use of force in the future,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: if it did decide to use force, it would find
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: out that Taiwan is formable faux potential foe if it
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: used force. Of course, Taiwan doesn't want that and China
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't want that, but they have inflicting political objectives. I
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: think the Chinese leadership is testing America's result. As you
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: quite rightly say, America's distracted, particularly by the events in
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the Middle East recently, but before and to some degree
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: also by the Ukraine situation and the Chinese are very
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: mindful that mister Trump will be cutting America's commitments to Ukraine,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: and that would give mister Putin a China ally unti
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: factor of victory in Ukraine. And this is something to watch.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I think it's not just the lamb Duck actor, which
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: I think is real, but I think even Biger factor
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: is a doubt whether mister Trump, despite his rhetoric, would
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: actually have the same determination to support allies as mister Biden.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: At least see mister Trump as much more of a
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: transactional president who moves from issue to issue and studies
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: everything case by case.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Can you give us a very quick update Ukraine? Obviously
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: these oil energy prices outside of the human cost of
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: these wars. But for little old place like New Zealand,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: you know Ukraine, you get your changes to oil prices
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the Middle East. We've got our trade routes affected. What
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: would a blockade of Taiwan mean for New Zealand financially.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: Well, it's a very bad news. We have excellent relations
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: so in Taiwan. I think it's the sixth or seventh
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  Speaker 2: biggest trade partner of New Zealand. And of course China
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: is our biggest trade partner, so it's potentially a double
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: where me if those two countries got involved in conflict
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: and the other thing is At the moment, New Zealand
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: is struggling to maintain what's called international rules based order,
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: and the conflict there would only further who rode that process.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Why doesn't you need an international rules based order because
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: we trade with more than one hundred countries around the
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  Speaker 2: world and we need rules. Rules are there for the week,
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: not for the strong. And if you had a superpower
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: flecting its muscles and ignoring international law, again a pattern
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: we've seen with Ukraine now, Gaza now and possibly Taiwan,
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  Speaker 2: that would be very bad news for small and middle
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  Speaker 2: powers in the world, which are the majority but don't
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  Speaker 2: actually have majority saying what happens.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Robert Petman, thank you very much for your time. I
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Tiger University International Relations expert responding near to the military
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: drills being conducted by China around Taiwan yesterday.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.