Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Ep. 696 ETF Inflows, Market Fear, and Why 2026 Looks Bullish with Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise

Transcript

Ep. 696 ETF Inflows, Market Fear, and Why 2026 Looks Bullish with Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise · CRYPTO 101

0:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the Crypto101 podcast, presented by Gemini.
0:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Your bridge to the future of money.
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Alright everyone, welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast.
0:18
[SPEAKER_00]: We are joined by Ryan Resmusion, he is the head of research over at Bitwise, and definitely a familiar face over here.
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We've had him a couple of times, we've had other members from the team on.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: But Ryan, welcome back and it's good to have you, my friend.
0:32
[SPEAKER_01]: It's great to be back here with you guys, excited to chat today.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely, man.
0:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's funny we were just talking to Matt not too long ago for people who don't know Matt's the CIO over a bit wise.
0:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They are one of the primary ETF contributors when it comes to the crypto market.
0:48
[SPEAKER_00]: They do a lot of other great work as well, always sharing just unique insights and statistics.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And they get a background view on everything that's happening in crypto.
0:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And they have this perfect blend.
0:58
[SPEAKER_00]: of understanding what's happening on the traditional side, but obviously just super deep on the crypto side, and we love getting to hear what they see and notice.
1:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Because it usually is stuff that is either, maybe the average person doesn't understand or it goes over their head, and they're able to kind of just bring it to us.
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're gonna be talking about the crypto ETFs, all those new altcoin ones that are coming out, the overall state of the market and just,
1:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The year is a hole as we begin to wrap up here and go into 2026.
1:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I know one of our favorite things is the legendary 2025 or should I say the annual predictions that you all put out Ryan and we're eagerly waiting and we'll get into this topic everyone so don't worry but we're eagerly waiting for those 2026 predictions and who knows.
1:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe by the time that this podcast is out they
1:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's good to see you again.
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's good to see you.
1:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, happy to be here.
1:56
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of kind words there.
1:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate them.
2:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We're eager to publish our 2026 predictions as well.
2:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So excited to come back and talk to you about them once those are live.
2:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And 2025 has been an incredible year and of itself.
2:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And so excited to be here today and talk to you about what we're seeing in the market and how we're thinking about the year behind us in the year ahead.
2:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and the thing about annual predictions is they're hard.
2:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You're aiming pretty much a year in advance, flying off of the data that we know the prior year, and giving a one year out price prediction, or not price, well, some of them might be price predictions, but giving a one year out prediction about anything is hard.
2:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things that we noticed when we were talking with Matt is that I think you guys had almost a 50% or something around a 50% hit rate for this year, which is,
2:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say it's pretty impressive again, aiming one year out.
2:47
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a long ways to throw a dart, man.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you're hitting 50%, it was fascinating.
2:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I appreciate that.
2:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think it's really difficult to make predictions a year out or, you know, 15 16 months out, particularly in an environment that we're in where we've continually had geopolitical shocks macro shocks would course the president is known for his kind of spur of the moment decisions that make a big splash.
3:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think it's.
3:14
[SPEAKER_01]: particularly difficult in this environment to make predictions that are year out.
3:17
[SPEAKER_01]: We're happy with the 50% hit rate.
3:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course the perfectionists in me want it to be 100%.
3:23
[SPEAKER_01]: But we also need to be bold with our predictions and really think about what's possible and it's hard to know all of the factors that are going to go into.
3:31
[SPEAKER_01]: to making those right so directionally I think we were above 50% but of course there were some areas like price targets where we perhaps were too bullish heading into 2025 and some of the headwinds that we worried would make those predictions not come true actually materialize and and yeah but excited to dive into any of those.
3:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, I think everyone was pretty bullish going into the air.
3:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you looked at that for a little bit of a time machine moment for everyone that's listening.
3:57
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look back at the end of 2024, we had that election rally.
4:01
[SPEAKER_00]: We went into new years with just a fire.
4:03
[SPEAKER_00]: The crypto market, just soaring Bitcoin and new all-time highs, salonish shortly after going into all-time like highs, just everything was exploding.
4:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we were looking at that and saying, oh, it could only get better from here.
4:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, low and behold, we got 230% pullbacks in Bitcoin and just a number of what I would say are borderline black swan events, just stuff that you couldn't have predicted that had a major impact on the price of Bitcoin, you know, you're looking at tariffs and that whole thing and then you're looking at the largest liquidation event and encrypt those history and two things that have affected the market.
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, you know, we're going to talk about 2026, but before we do that,
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's just talk about the state of the market and where we're at right now.
4:47
[SPEAKER_00]: You do have Bitcoin kind of
4:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Believing back down to the downside.
4:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You have the market kind of underperforming in comparison to some of these other areas and other risk on assets.
4:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the fear and greed index, it hit it 10.
5:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Historically, like one of the lowest points that it goes.
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[SPEAKER_00]: And we've only been under a 10, a handful of times.
5:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And even some of these daily and weekly RSIs were relative strength indexes are at the lowest years that we've seen
5:17
[SPEAKER_00]: 2022, 2023, those kind of levels.
5:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so overall in the crypto market, feeling a little bit of pain right now, uh, just walk us through what you see and what's happening.
5:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's really remarkable where we're at today, both from how much the market has matured and developed over the past one, two, three years.
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And also where sentiment and where price is at, I think there's this giant disconnect between fundamentally what's happened to the market and how the market has transformed over the past 12 to 24 months with where prices are at.
5:49
[SPEAKER_01]: That leaves me increasingly bullish for the outlook for crypto.
5:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And the way that I kind of think about what's happened over the past few years,
5:56
[SPEAKER_01]: is to contextualize the major events that have transpired.
5:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you think about two years ago, or rather three years ago, FTX had just collapsed, the industry was in a state of despair.
6:09
[SPEAKER_01]: The biggest exchange, the most public exchange with public crypto figure was turning out to be a fraud, and the entire world was turning against crypto.
6:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Fast forward a year from then or two years ago, we didn't have ETFs yet.
6:23
[SPEAKER_01]: We did not have the coin T.S.
6:24
[SPEAKER_01]: which now feel like every day element of the market.
6:28
[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't have Ethereum ETFs et cetera.
6:30
[SPEAKER_01]: A year ago, or yeah, about a year ago, ETFs hadn't existed for a year.
6:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We saw the Biden administration and go against their fighting crypto.
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: All the major crypto companies were still being sued.
6:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And then within this year in 2025, all of that changed.
6:47
[SPEAKER_01]: SVF is a long way behind us.
6:48
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been replaced by key figures in this space who are really pushing us forward, like Brian Armstrong and the like who are making their way through DC and actually
6:58
[SPEAKER_01]: showing a positive phase for crypto, making positive change with their lobbying and policy efforts.
7:03
[SPEAKER_01]: We have Bitcoin ETFs.
7:04
[SPEAKER_01]: We have Ethereum ETFs.
7:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We have Solana XRP ETFs.
7:08
[SPEAKER_01]: We have index ETFs.
7:09
[SPEAKER_01]: The market and the ways for institutional investors to access the market has transformed dramatically.
7:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And then of course, I think most importantly,
7:17
[SPEAKER_01]: We have this crazy regulatory tailwind where we have a pro crypto SEC pro crypto administration pro crypto president pro crypto congress both the national and state level we see bipartisan crypto supports all of those things had transformed the market for the long term in such a dramatic and remarkable way that it does surprise me that
7:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Quickly turn into excitement when I think about the outlook for crypto in 2026 and beyond.
7:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would agree, and I think that's where investors need to shift their attention towards because it's so easy in the moment to feel the pain of what's going on and get emotional about it and upset about it and it's funny because I always like to talk to my dad about this stuff and he's a big Bitcoin guy now that I've converted over the years and actually fun fact he came to me I can't remember if we talked about this our last time he came to me earlier this year and he's like, hey, I think I'm gonna
8:19
[SPEAKER_00]: going to get involved in one of these crypto ETFs and I was like all right just please like let me know before you do this I want to make sure you get into the right one spoiler he didn't let me know he went off and just did it by himself he's like now I got this guy that I trust he said like
8:34
[SPEAKER_00]: He really likes this one.
8:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It was bit wise.
8:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He comes back to me and he's like, I get wise.
8:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that a good one?
8:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I was like, yes, that's like a really good one.
8:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like, I'm glad that you did that.
8:43
[SPEAKER_00]: We love that.
8:44
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll fake you to your dad.
8:45
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the next Thanksgiving for his support and his trust in us.
8:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
8:51
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think people need to have this vision because he comes back to me and goes, it doesn't make any sense that you might see weakness in the dollar or that you see traditional financial fears or that you see panics or all these issues in the world.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: and people's solution is to get rid of Bitcoin.
9:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like, they're, their mind should work in a way that they see all this and they should go and be excited about getting more Bitcoin.
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And he sometimes has a hard time understanding, like, why don't people's brain kind of work like that?
9:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And I explain it on like, hey, like, that's probably the right approach is looking at all this stuff, not freaking out, but saying, man, like, this is the reason why Bitcoin's here.
9:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And we get the opportunity to really accumulate on some of these,
9:29
[SPEAKER_00]: these dips.
9:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And I totally agree with you, man.
9:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people should look
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: for that kind of lens to interpret what's going on.
9:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think one of the real things that people are wondering is like, what matters the most here?
9:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Because now we're at an interesting point where there's all these different talking points.
9:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we in a tech bubble?
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we in an AI bubble?
9:51
[SPEAKER_00]: How much do rate cuts matter?
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Do we need to worry about inflation or the labor market?
9:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Should we be looking at M2, ETF flows regulation?
9:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, there's all these different moving parts now, as we've kind of matured.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think is the most important here?
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, what do you think people should be looking at?
10:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think all of that matters, but in the grand scheme of things, none of that matters because it's all pro Bitcoin as you mentioned.
10:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think it's human to be short-sighted as many investors are and be so worried about what's the Fed going to do in 15 days at the next meeting?
10:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to cut by 25 basis points?
10:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to keep rates where they're at?
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And what does that mean for what's happening with AI investments and inflation or things?
10:38
[SPEAKER_01]: The reality is, is that if your time horizon is five, 10, 15 years out, you look at the mega trends, which is that we're in a pro-technology era, technology's never been more important than it is today.
10:50
[SPEAKER_01]: That was true 10 years ago, that was true 20 years ago, and it's going to be true in 10, or 20 years.
10:56
[SPEAKER_01]: The US debt has not been in control for a decade or two decades or three decades.
11:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, that was true then that's going to be true 10, 20, 30 years out.
11:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to be in a low rate environment, whether it starts in December or mid year next year or the end of next year for a prolonged period.
11:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's going to increase liquidity across the globe.
11:19
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to derive assets higher.
11:21
[SPEAKER_01]: AI is going to fundamentally transform the way the economy works and drive more capital into technology and into investments.
11:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's going to bleed into crypto and other risk on assets.
11:32
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd bring all this up because the long-term trends are all pointing to a
11:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Increasingly technology driven world a low liquidity environment from a macro perspective and a risk on environment and to me all of those are bullish tailwinds for crypto and then you add on the crypto specific tailwinds which is this massive regulatory flywheel that we're seeing where you have positive developments at every level of the government.
11:59
[SPEAKER_01]: and you have institutional access to crypto increasing through ETFs through more interesting products like index funds where traditional institutional investors finally feel comfortable allocating to the space.
12:12
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to compress volatility.
12:13
[SPEAKER_01]: There's just all of these
12:15
[SPEAKER_01]: beautiful tailwinds for crypto, whether they're kind of thematic in general to where the world is headed, whether they're macro related to the economy, both in the US and globally, or whether they're crypto specific with regulation and adoption, all of these things if you have a long enough time horizon are positive catalyst for crypto.
12:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I do think that these dips, as you mentioned,
12:38
[SPEAKER_01]: our gifts to investors have a long enough time horizon, but it's human to be short-sighted and it's, you know, surprising and not surprising to me that the fear index is so low today, despite the fact that we're in such a better place fundamentally than we were during 2022 or those other bear markets of the past.
12:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, you're spot on, man.
12:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things that you mentioned is this idea, is this idea of indexing, right?
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And we've started to see that get more popular.
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: We started to see more crypto indexes come out.
13:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, what is the case for crypto indexing?
13:13
[SPEAKER_01]: The case for crypto, yeah, so this is a great question.
13:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You know,
13:17
[SPEAKER_01]: If I were to think about like indexing five years ago or how I felt towards indexing, five or 10 years ago, I thought it was crazy and in my mind, I was like, look, I could just pick the best stocks and I can outperform any index or benchmark.
13:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the S&P, let me just go and pick whatever stocks I want to pick and I'll just outperform that and I'll make those index fund managers, look like they don't know what they're doing.
13:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And then time and time again, indexes outperform because human nature and behavioral finance plays a role.
13:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And you really just want to have broad exposure to the market when you're trying to invest in a theme rather than try to pick winners and losers.
13:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's particularly true.
13:56
[SPEAKER_01]: in crypto and I've really come around to thinking indexing is one of the most important ways to get exposure to any asset class.
14:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I would much rather use an index to invest in a space that I'm not that familiar with like AI or energy or other sectors of the economy than go and try to figure out what the right energy stock or what the right AI company to invest in is.
14:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So why for investors who aren't that familiar with crypto, which is majority even
14:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Why should they try to pick winners and losers instead of just try to index the space like it just makes sense and there's a there's an interesting stat when you actually zoom out and look at active investing which is trying to pick winners and losers index investing and I don't think there's any reason that this would be different in crypto than is another asset classes.
14:44
[SPEAKER_01]: but 90% or more of the time, index investing beats active investing, meaning that active managers under perform benchmark indexes across all kinds of asset classes, whether it's equities or real estate or commodities or private credit.
15:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, there's no reason in my mind that crypto would be any different from that.
15:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think that, you know, the case for indexing crypto is the same as the case for indexing
15:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I would just add to that, the last thing you want to do is be write about crypto in 2025 and then a 2035 look back and realize that you bought the wrong company and you bought the wrong blockchain and so you're right about the theme but you're wrong about the investment.
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So having broad-based exposure to all of the major assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, DeFi applications, stablecoin issuers, et cetera, in our mind is the right way for investors to get exposure to the broader trend of crypto and blockchain technology.
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and we see a lot of people on our end, they come in and they get in the crypto and they learn that there's these other altcoins and the next logical question is well, which one should I get you know I want to diversify a little bit outside of Bitcoin and that is where the answer can vary so much depending on who you talk to and what they like and what their bias about and their background and everything.
16:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And so you're going to have some people come to you and say, you don't need anything.
16:11
[SPEAKER_00]: All you need is Bitcoin.
16:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're going to get another group of people that say, well, you have to own XRP.
16:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the best.
16:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're going to get another group of people and they're going to say, you don't want XRP.
16:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It's horrible.
16:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're going to push you towards Solano or theory or more.
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, something that's even smaller and market-capped than a lot of these well-known ones.
16:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, everyone is a different opinion, and I think that is where people start to strain in your right.
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: The people who do try to pick these out, they tend to underperform, even against Bitcoin over the long-term, and then the further they kind of go away from that, and they try to create their own concoction, their own index that's usually weighted the wrong direction.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: they do tend to underperform.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm with you there and we've seen how popular all these indexes can be in the traditional financial markets.
16:59
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no reason to believe that they can't be equally as successful in the crypto market, especially now with crypto being this multi-chilling dollar asset class.
17:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the average person would like that, especially in some sort of retirement account or long-term account.
17:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people kind of lean towards indexes
17:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's exactly right.
17:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Imagine you're a financial advisor, and you meet with your clients two to four times per year.
17:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And the last time you met, they said, hey, we want exposure to crypto, and they told you that if you didn't get them exposure to crypto, they would move to a different financial advisor, which may sound crazy to some, but we hear all the time in our conversations with financial advisors that this is happening.
17:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So you meet with your client, they say, hey, we want exposure to crypto and you say great.
17:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And you go out and all you do is buy Bitcoin because naturally the thing to do if you want exposure to crypto is to buy Bitcoin.
17:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's say that was in June of 2025 and your next meeting was with them in September of 2025 and they come back and they say, hey, how'd you do?
18:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're like, well, we bought Bitcoin.
18:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It was up 6% in Q3.
18:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You should be super happy.
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they turned you and they said, well, yeah, what about Ethereum?
18:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, that was all over CNBC.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: That was up 65%.
18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: How come you didn't invest in Ethereum?
18:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Or what about Solana?
18:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We hear a lot of things about Solana.
18:20
[SPEAKER_01]: That was up 32%.
18:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, why didn't you invest in Solana?
18:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Or this chainly thing sounds cool?
18:25
[SPEAKER_01]: That was up 60%.
18:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And as an advisor, you have to sit there and explain to them why you missed those and instead bought Bitcoin.
18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, two things are true here.
18:35
[SPEAKER_01]: The first is at 6% return to quarter is remarkable, and this shows how ridiculous humans can be.
18:42
[SPEAKER_01]: But second, if they had just bought an index of the crypto space, the advisor could have said, hey, yeah, no, you have a theorem.
18:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You have salana, you have XRP, you have chain link, you have it index.
18:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of these, you had exposure to and you actually rub 15% on the quarter.
18:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So you outperform Bitcoin, just 50% in the market and you owned all of these things that are benefiting from the trends of positive regulatory.
19:04
[SPEAKER_01]: catalyst and tokenization and stablecoins, etc.
19:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So just from the way that people think about investing, whether you're managing money on behalf of clients or individually, having broad-based exposure allows you to sleep comfortably at night knowing that you may not have picked the right winner specifically by asset, but you have broad exposure to a space that you think is growing over the time.
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you're right, man.
19:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And I just see it kind of growing from here.
19:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I really do just see it growing
19:32
[SPEAKER_00]: we have these troughs and these valleys and everything else as we're going through the crypto market but that's just normal.
19:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think anybody who's been in the space for a long time realizes that volatility is just a part of the crypto market and you get used to it a little bit as time goes on.
19:51
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of things that continue to chug on and progress and move us forward and one of the big things has been these new ETFs
20:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I think when I looked during the government shutdown, there was like over a hundred of these things pending across the board they were everywhere and they had all different kinds you had ones that were You had some that were like short ETFs some that were two x three x leverage long ETFs.
20:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw one that was like a three x micro cap long ETF something crazy and I was like, oh my goodness, we're getting into this.
20:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But now we started to see a lot of these come out, and you all have had a couple of these.
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I was looking at a tweet that you had it.
20:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have it up, but I was looking through your ex account, and you said, the fact that Solana or that the Solana ETFs have seen 18 days straight of inflows, while the price has dropped over 25% is incredible.
20:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, just talk to us about that.
20:52
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a wild number.
20:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It is truly insane and blew my mind and I had to quadruple check the data sources before I published that tweet because I was convinced it was wrong.
21:05
[SPEAKER_01]: That's how remarkable of a fact that is.
21:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if you think about the psychology investors when an asset's drawn down 30%.
21:13
[SPEAKER_01]: you typically are worried and selling that asset.
21:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And what you see with ETF flows, for instance, with the S&P 500 or other funds wrapped around broad-based equities indexes is if you had a pull back of this extent, you would certainly have majority of days if not all of days without flows.
21:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you have this crypto asset salana.
21:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a brand new ETF it launches then the price draws down something like 25 or 30% and yet day after day after day, there's tens of millions of dollars flowing into this product, I think over 500 million of inflows have hit salana products while the price is drawn down 30% and you just don't see that in other asset classes.
21:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that speaks to the appetite for investing in themes like tokenization, in programming with blockchains and stablecoins, that investors have, and they're viewing this drawdown as a gift, a month ago they could invest in Solana, because there were no Solana ETPs, yet they wanted to and they saw the price was above 200.
22:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they have the ability to invest in Solana and the price is trading at a massive discount from where they wanted to invest in it a month ago.
22:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's why you see a remarkable fact that day after day after day.
22:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this has continued still even since I tweeted that we've seen positive inflows into Solana, ETP is every single day since they've launched despite the price falling 30%.
22:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It really is remarkable.
22:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it's like you said, I looked at that and I was like, I can't be right, can it?
22:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And sure enough, it is, and it's fascinating.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So for people who don't understand, when we're looking at inflows versus outflows, it's saying, hey, at the end of the day, did the money coming in?
22:56
[SPEAKER_00]: outpaced the amount of money coming out and inflows, meaning every single day for the last 18 days straight, despite price dropping over 25-30%, there's been more money coming in than coming out, specifically from the ETS, and I've seen people and they've already come to me, especially in our community and where we have our ties.
23:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And they say, Brendan, I thought the crypto ETFs were supposed to be a good thing.
23:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're supposed to cause inflows and make the price go up, especially for these altcoins.
23:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're like, they are.
23:24
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not the ones selling here, at least not for Solana, at least not yet.
23:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're seeing a lot of buying happened behind the scenes.
23:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're wondering, like, what's happening behind the scenes, look no further than some of these inflow charts, because they really are fascinating.
23:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And diesel was, which is your
23:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Solana ETF is is interesting because it has been one of the most successful ETF launches of the year, right?
23:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we're super excited about that.
23:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's remarkable that crypto ATP's, I think contextualizing that, it's not just one of the most successful ETF launches of the year in crypto terms, but against a backdrop of more than 850 ETF launches across every asset class in the US by every asset manager, crypto ETFs, like the Solana ETF, are the most successful or among the most successful,
24:22
[SPEAKER_01]: against all of those ETS, which is shows the demand and the appetite for crypto from investors who invest in ETS.
24:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is, and you all have some other ones coming out, right?
24:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I saw there was what XRP and I think a Dogecoin one coming out as well.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, so I can't speak to any particular filing for compliance reasons to be fair.
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: But in XRP, TF went live last week, and there are other ETFs on the way, of course, which I think James, say far and others post about these all the time.
24:56
[SPEAKER_01]: By the time this episode comes out, there will likely be more that have come to market.
25:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the broader signal of that is that the SEC has turned a corner permanently.
25:06
[SPEAKER_01]: on its view around crypto ETFs, right?
25:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Because in order to launch crypto ETF, it has to be approved by the SEC and go through a listing process that is overseen by the SEC, which is one of the largest financial regulators in the world.
25:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And previously, of course, was held by Gary Gensler, who hated crypto and had like a passion for suing crypto companies.
25:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And now is held by Paul Akin, who is pro-crypto and is leading the SEC towards a pro-crypto environment for decades to come and you see that reflected in these product listings.
25:39
[SPEAKER_01]: They're like the genius out of the bottle.
25:40
[SPEAKER_01]: You can't put it back in once they're out.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're super excited.
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: There's like over a hundred
25:45
[SPEAKER_01]: CryptoETP, filings that are active right now, buy a bunch of different asset managers, not just a bit wise, and I think that just goes to show how different of environment we're in today versus a year ago, and that's so exciting for us because investors can now start to access different products and different strategies to get exposure to crypto than before, which was just Bitcoin ETFs or just Ethereum ETFs.
26:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's talk about that a little bit further, because prior to this moment, it was largely, hey, people could go get access to Bitcoin and then a little bit later, they could get access to Solana, they've been largely successful.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of the most successful ETFs in all of history.
26:24
[SPEAKER_00]: What I think the average crypto native investor has felt is that altcoins have been a little bit underwhelming, maybe even underperforming during that same time horizon from early 2024 to the current day.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we have these altcoin ETFs coming out.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think that that means for altcoins?
26:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Because the big kind of, and I don't want to get in trouble, right?
26:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Say as much as you can here.
26:49
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, what do you think that that means
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: for altcoins and like could this be the kind of catalyst that gets us back to some of the glory days of altcoins.
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I know people are used to altcoin season, right?
27:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we call alt-season over here.
27:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't know.
27:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, could that could this be one of those catalysts to kind of get us back into that euphoric altcoin feeling, especially during holiday season?
27:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a good question.
27:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that crypto ETPs open the door for all types of investors to allocate.
27:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And the more that exists, just means that more and more investors can easily access different crypto assets.
27:28
[SPEAKER_01]: That could be Bitcoin.
27:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be other majors like Ethereum and Slana, or it could be a number of altz that meet the generic listing standards as they see laid out, which said, if an asset has a futures market and meets these other requirements, then it need to be can be listed.
27:40
[SPEAKER_01]: But importantly, that doesn't mean demand is automatically going to flow into these products and automatically send prices higher.
27:47
[SPEAKER_01]: It just means that that option is available and it's on the menu.
27:52
[SPEAKER_01]: If you think about like a menu at a restaurant and you go and you're an investor and you sit down at this restaurant.
27:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Most people are going to order the same thing time and time again.
28:02
[SPEAKER_01]: There's popular dishes and there's not as popular dishes and then sometimes someone's going to go out on on a whim and order the escargo or something like that and I think that's how you can think about these products is out there not for everyone.
28:15
[SPEAKER_01]: not everyone is going to invest in a salon or an XRP or the next altcoin ETP, but they don't necessarily all have to.
28:23
[SPEAKER_01]: These are smaller assets by market cap, which means that they don't need as large of inflows in order to push the price higher or impact the market dynamics.
28:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think not every ETP is for everyone.
28:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Does that, does it automatically mean when it needs to be as long as the price is going to go higher?
28:38
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I think it's important to be able to know that.
28:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It's one factor in the demand supply and market structure dynamics of a crypto asset.
28:46
[SPEAKER_01]: But fundamentally, our belief is over the long term crypto assets are really priced and returns are driven by a number of factors.
28:55
[SPEAKER_01]: The fact that investors can allocate to them in ETFs is one of those factors, but technological advancements, regulatory changes, consumer adoption, user adoption
29:04
[SPEAKER_01]: etc., also play a very, very big role in the long-term trend of these ecosystems in not every ETP that launches will lead to a massive run-up or even will be a winner.
29:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Many of these will actually close probably in two or three years from now.
29:18
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a fascinating thing that I didn't think about is the possibility of some of these clothes in which makes sense, right?
29:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And like not, I think it's a little bit silly to say everything's gonna be this massive success and everything's gonna perform the way that the Bitcoin ETF has performed for it like now the Solana ETF which has been very, very successful.
29:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a good point to just be level-headed when looking at these and say, hey,
29:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's not possible for every ETF to perform that way in the crypto market and you're going to see some of these probably underperform and maybe a couple of years later go away and things are going to change but as old things go away, new things come in and that's kind of the name of the game when it comes to the crypto market is that it moves at a million miles an hour and we've talked a lot like a lot today about like how successful this has been, try to find adoption, the ETF flows, regulation.
30:07
[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about all these things that are
30:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And Ryan, I think there's there's only one thought that comes to my mind here and I'll put it on the screen for everyone is that after considering all of these bullish catalyst.
30:20
[SPEAKER_01]: The coin has to be dead right it has to be dead it is we can declare Bitcoin dead for the 450 first time in this podcast right here.
30:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I've looked at these charts before, and there's a couple of different websites that do this.
30:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It's essentially a Bitcoin habituary of every time some sort of news or media outlet or economists or someone who has recorded Bitcoin or cryptos being dead, they plotted on this chart.
30:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And my favorite thing about this is how close you can see it like correlate to price and you have just the Bitcoin price over the long term going up into the right as Bitcoin continues to be pronounced dead and then the dots keep getting higher and higher and I think it's like the the most hysterical thing possible and my favorite ones are the ones that are going up where it's like
31:15
[SPEAKER_00]: As the market is bottoming out, they're claiming that it's dead and it's like, have we ever come back to these people?
31:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, do we ever go back to see if they like change their view or if they continue to like double down on it?
31:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the people who called dead at the bottom of 2022 or at the start of 2023 or a lot of these things, but um, this is something...
31:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, go ahead, good.
31:38
[SPEAKER_01]: How is it possible for an app how can the price keep going up for something that is deaf?
31:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It shouldn't happen.
31:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And we should go back to these to these folks.
31:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And on these websites, to the Bitcoin obituries website, they actually list out all of these dots on this chart where it's been a kind of side of the Bitcoin is dead.
31:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think two things are true.
32:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Many of the people or many of the media outlets who have said Bitcoin is dead in the past.
32:05
[SPEAKER_01]: have changed their stance when it's favorable for them to get headlines and clicks.
32:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And the second thing that is true is that it certainly doesn't capture every single time that someone has said Bitcoin is down.
32:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
32:16
[SPEAKER_01]: So 450, which is what this chart shows, is is by far and low, by far and wide, very, very low compared to what's actually been said.
32:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'd love to see.
32:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know what this exists going to ever look for, and I kind of just thought of this now.
32:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But what if you saw this for something like gold, like if you went back 2,000 years like and captured on a chart every single dot where where somebody somewhere said gold is dead and then push that against the price chart you can imagine what that would look like and I see the same thing happening for Bitcoin.
32:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a fun experiment to go through when things like this happen because time and time again people declared Bitcoin dead and time and time again Bitcoin is hit all time highs.
32:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't see this time as any different, right?
33:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're talking about this at the time of recording this, depending on how far in the future you're listening to this, you know, Bitcoin's in a dip right now.
33:09
[SPEAKER_00]: We're coming in at the very kind of end part of 2025 here.
33:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin tagged 80,000 on the low.
33:17
[SPEAKER_00]: We've recovered some since then.
33:18
[SPEAKER_00]: We've bounced around and chopped around.
33:20
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, we're coming off of a decent move to the downside, right?
33:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see this time as being anything different.
33:27
[SPEAKER_00]: We just viewed that chart if you're on YouTube, you saw it, if you're on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or anywhere else.
33:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You got to go to our YouTube to see the visuals and the charts.
33:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't see this time as being anything different.
33:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I don't think that different kinds of wealth managers or financial advisors are either.
33:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's one of the last things I wanted to talk to you about before we get into maybe 2026 is like, what do these financial advisors and wealth managers think about Bitcoin?
33:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And like, what other kind of things are they interested as we're clearly down off the highs?
34:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so they wise we spend every single day talking to wealth managers at some of the largest financial institutions in the world and smaller RAAs or mom and pop shops where they maybe aren't managing hundreds of billions of dollars, but they're certainly managing a meaningful amount of wealth.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And the trend that we've continued to see in this drawback is they want to know why it's happening and what's driving it, but they also want to know, is this the right time to allocate how much more should I be allocating and which crypto asset should be allocating too, which is a new question they're asking today that they weren't asking a year ago a year ago it was all just Bitcoin.
34:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that a long-term institutional investors, which are the wealth managers and the financial advisors that manage pension funds and endowments and our high school teachers and college professors and parents, retirement funds and investment funds, these are a long-term oriented investors.
34:59
[SPEAKER_01]: They are used to adding to positions as the price draws down because they've been in the market long enough and they've studied financial markets and assets long enough.
35:09
[SPEAKER_01]: to know that over the long-term majority of major assets like Bitcoin increase in value over time.
35:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's what we're seeing here in these conversations is we were getting questions about the drawdown, but it wasn't, oh my god, I need to sell, I need to sell.
35:27
[SPEAKER_01]: It was, hey, I think that this is a good opportunity to buy.
35:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think it's bottomed out?
35:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And why is it crashing?
35:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And we just have those conversations and I can tell you time and time again, we leave those conversations and the investors have higher conviction in where Bitcoin's headed and they appreciate the fact that they can buy Bitcoin at a discount to where they think it's going over the next one to three to five to ten years.
35:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
35:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So what I'm hearing is that these, uh, well, the advisors and financial managers and all these people, they're not saying that they have a new decree that Bitcoin allocation should be 0% after what we've witnessed.
36:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we're not seeing here, right?
36:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Correct, it's actually opposite, you know, these are very systematic investors.
36:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And when a position draws down, they rebalance their portfolio and they add to it.
36:12
[SPEAKER_01]: And then when it goes up, they trim the position and rebalance the other side.
36:16
[SPEAKER_01]: That's one reason that volatility will continue to fall for Bitcoin over the long term is because as you have more institutional investors coming into the space or professional investors coming into the space, they're a bit more systematic about how they invest and how they trade, but overwhelmingly from what we're seeing over this past.
36:33
[SPEAKER_01]: month, month and a half since the 1010 crash is majority of the financial advisors and professional investors that we speak to are looking at this dip a bit coin as a gift and as a time to increase allocations rather than run for the hills.
36:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, it's I think that's what we need to pay attention to here.
36:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, let's talk about these these
36:55
[SPEAKER_00]: the future.
36:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk about 2026 and what we got going on.
36:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's finally we were talking right before this all started and we were just catching up and every single year for people who don't know bit-wise, you know, specifically Ryan and Matt put out their annual predictions for the crypto market and
37:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Historically, as we said earlier, like you guys have been really spot on with these, and especially when it comes to even ones that might not be technically wrong, you've gotten the overall theme and direction right.
37:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think it's always interesting to pay attention and watch out for these.
37:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You're saying that they're not finalized yet.
37:37
[SPEAKER_00]: But they should be finalized in the coming weeks.
37:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Can we get any kind of sneak peek?
37:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing official.
37:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Is there anything that is, maybe worth watching or paying attention to or anything that's your eye as we go in the 2026?
37:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, certainly, the predictions are an annual piece that we put out.
37:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a passion project of mine at the OS.
38:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I really enjoy putting these together.
38:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Because what we do is be kind of gather the hive mind at bitwise.
38:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And we talk about what are people seeing in the conversation they're having every day.
38:11
[SPEAKER_01]: That can be with advisors.
38:13
[SPEAKER_01]: That can be what they're seeing in social media or our crypto conferences.
38:17
[SPEAKER_01]: We also have active and alpha strategies that go in,
38:20
[SPEAKER_01]: invest with hedge funds and market makers, et cetera.
38:23
[SPEAKER_01]: So we really span the entire crypto ecosystem.
38:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And we all come together and we debate what we think is going to happen.
38:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And we distill that in 10 predictions for the next year.
38:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We've done that already for 2020, 6.
38:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's just kind of coming around and finalizing these things, which we'll do over the next few weeks.
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think directionally the themes that I've pulled from those conversations,
38:44
[SPEAKER_01]: are that we believe that Bitwise 2026 is going to be an up year for the major crypto assets and for crypto equities.
38:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do I mean by that?
38:54
[SPEAKER_01]: We think that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana, XRP, the other major crypto assets, the L1s, the Bitcoins of the world are going to do very well in 2026, with the many of them will set new all-time highs.
39:07
[SPEAKER_01]: For crypto equities, the Coinbase
39:12
[SPEAKER_01]: we also believe they're going to do very well in 2026 and many of them will set new all-time highs as well.
39:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So fundamentally we're bullish on where assets are headed.
39:23
[SPEAKER_01]: from a performance perspective.
39:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We're also very bullish on other themes in the crypto space.
39:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Some that I've continually had conversations with folks that bit-wise about are the excitement around prediction markets and the adoption we're seeing across prediction markets.
39:39
[SPEAKER_01]: We're also really excited of course about stablecoins and tokenization.
39:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are themes that we believe are in an uptrend for the foreseeable future the next five to 10 years.
39:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're really excited about defying,
39:53
[SPEAKER_01]: following this pro-crypto regulatory environment.
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So really excited to see what defy projects can do now that they can turn on things like the fee switch with Uniswap and what that means for integrating with FinTech and other financial applications and consumer-facing products and things.
40:10
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think those are kind of the mega trends that we're seeing across the space.
40:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, infrastructure is a super interesting play because this was essentially the year of crypto IPOs right you had all these different crypto and this that was one of your predictions is that this will be the year of the crypto IPO and we got a lot of of crypto companies that want public this year, you know,
40:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So, man, I grew through there.
40:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Ryan, it's always a pleasure having you on.
40:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, did we miss anything?
40:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Was there anything that we missed here that you're like, everyone needs to know about?
40:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I would just say, you know,
41:00
[SPEAKER_01]: First of all, thank you for having me on.
41:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I love coming and talking with you, Brendan, and would love to do it again after we publish our predictions and in the new year.
41:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But I would just say is really these are the times where it's important to think about what kind of investor you are.
41:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're a long-term oriented investor,
41:16
[SPEAKER_01]: these pullbacks are gifts.
41:18
[SPEAKER_01]: If your thesis is still that we're moving towards an increasingly digital technology driven world that AI and crypto and blockchain are disruptive innovative technologies that are going to play a bigger impact in the way the world functions and we operate day-to-day from payments to using our computers to using our phones to everything in between.
41:37
[SPEAKER_01]: then I would just say these are a gift.
41:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And it looks to us from a worse than the habit wise that many professional investors view this draw down as a gift as well.
41:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're long-term oriented, then I would just survey the space and see what looks attractive to you.
41:52
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're short-term or oriented, maybe this is a good opportunity as well, we're just not quite as short-term oriented at bitwise.
41:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So really excited about 20, 26, really excited to head into this holiday season while you have this gift of Bitcoin trading.
42:07
[SPEAKER_01]: another acid trading in the discount as what we believe they should be and excited to come back and talk to you in 2026.
42:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
42:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, man, if that's not a borderline cliffhanger for everyone waiting on, you better make sure that you hit the like and subscribe button and that you stick around with us because we're going to have Ryan or Matt or maybe both of you at the same time here on after New Year's to talk about these 2026 predictions and I know the audience loves it, so we'll definitely have to make sure that we have you back here.
42:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Ryan, once again, appreciate you coming on here with us before we let you go where can people track and learn more about not only what you're doing, but bit wise as well.
42:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, well, Matt and I would love to come back on and talk with you guys.
42:49
[SPEAKER_01]: It's always fun to podcast with him.
42:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to both able to to align our calendars.
42:54
[SPEAKER_01]: You can find me on Twitter at rasterly rock or rasterly rock REST to ERLY ROCK.
43:00
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like cashily rock from Game of Thrones, but with an R.
43:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And all of our research and educational materials are available for free on bitwiseinvestments.com.
43:10
[SPEAKER_01]: We publish our predictions piece, quarterly reports, long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, and everything in between on our website and Matt writes a weekly memo every single week.
43:21
[SPEAKER_01]: That's 500 words or less, takes five minutes or less to read on how he's viewing the market.
43:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And you can subscribe to that on our website as well.
43:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Other than that, thank you so much again for having me on and I'm excited to come back and chat with you soon.
43:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
43:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Alright everyone, and that's gonna wrap us up for this episode.
43:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you all for coming in and listening to another one of these.
43:45
[SPEAKER_00]: We're constantly making sure that we're pumping these out, bringing in leaders from all areas of the industry, really all the industries.
43:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you like this and you want more, again, hit that like and subscribe button.
43:55
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44:03
[SPEAKER_00]: We love hearing what all of you are saying and we'll look forward.
44:06
[SPEAKER_00]: to have an all the on for another great podcast at the same time at same place next week.