Latest / Financial Survival Network / Interest Rates, Fed Policy, AI Bubble And Market Trends with John Rubino #6008

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Interest Rates, Fed Policy, AI Bubble And Market Trends with John Rubino #6008 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
Leave them in the sn P five hundred and the S and P five hundred
0:03
is at all time hime. You take them out and it's in a bear
0:06
marketing. You know, those companies mean so much to the overall stock indexes,
0:11
and that's a sign of the end of a cycle. You know,
0:14
when the leadership of the market is so narrow that it's literally something you can
0:20
count on two hands, then that's the end of the cycle. And this
0:24
time it's narrower and more richly valued than it was in nineteen ninety nine.
0:29
So we basically while we weren't looking, a new tech bubble blew up.
0:33
That's the biggest tech bubble of all time. So that means the bus will
0:37
be commensurately huge when the time comes. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
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Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive
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Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift.
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever, and welcome you are listening to watching
1:08
the Financial Survival Network. I'm here, oh s Terry lutz A, We're
1:12
back from a beautiful Thailand. I'm going to do a special triple Let's report
1:19
on it. Tell you what I found there, why you might want to
1:22
think that there are other places in the world where you could possibly live.
1:26
But the big news this week, and to me it is the biggest story
1:30
that, of course the media is more or less neglecting because it doesn't fit
1:36
into the narrative, is libertarianism on the move in Argentina being implemented successfully thus
1:45
far. John sent you that article an Argentina merely took over I think less
1:53
than two months ago. Argentina hadn't had a balanced budget in over twelve years.
2:00
It went from deficit to surplus, a six hundred million dollars surplus,
2:05
which in a country the size of Argentina is substantial. I mean, I
2:10
guess you had to break a few eggs to make that Omelet you know,
2:14
but libertarian hism has gone from what you and I talked about as just being
2:22
a theoretical system where we know that things would probably improve, to actually being
2:30
implemented, and we're starting to see the fruits of it. Almost cause for
2:35
optimism here. Hey, Jerry, welcome back and yeah, you know,
2:39
you and I, as kind of sort of libertarians, walk around for most
2:46
of our lives not saying what we really think in a lot of ways,
2:47
because if we say what we would really like to have happen, it just
2:53
sounds crazy to noble people. Likely, Okay, close down the FBI,
2:57
lay off half the government, you know, that's the kind of stuff liberty
3:00
instead and the FED. Yeah, and there's no reason even to say stuff
3:06
like that in the US, by and large, because most people will just
3:08
hear that as like a cry for help from yeah. Yeah. But here
3:15
we are in Latin America with two different countries enacting the kinds of things the
3:22
libertarians only dream about. You know, in El Salvador they made bitcoin legal
3:28
tender and then they round it up all the gang members and just put them
3:34
in a supermax prison. And so El Salvador went from being one of the
3:37
most dangerous places in Latin America having one of the lowest crime rates, and
3:43
now in Venezuela or Argentina, like you said, this new guy comes in
3:49
he's a libertarian, and everybody thinks, okay, well, that'll last a
3:52
matter of weeks before he gets shut down. One he fired halts the government,
3:58
and it doesn't sound like the government is in chaos or anything. It
4:02
sounds like stuff is still getting done, but he's not paying those people anymore.
4:06
So now the government is running a surplus. So these are these are
4:12
heavy duty, big deal kinds of things to have happened in the world,
4:16
just because so few things like that have ever happened. And see, you
4:20
know, the Viker Maslami running for president here said something like, okay,
4:25
on day one, we fire seventy five percent of the bureaucracy, and everybody
4:29
assumed that was just a no name candidate trying to generate a little bit of
4:34
heat so he can have more than three percent in the polls. But suddenly
4:40
that's something that's demonstrably possible because it's been done in other places in the world.
4:46
So all of a sudden, I mean, I still think, obviously
4:48
we built up all this stat we're heading for a financial crisis on a vast
4:53
scale. But the fact that before that happens, you know, because when
4:58
we're at the very bottom trying to rebuild from the rebel, lots of experiments
5:01
will take place. But now, before the big crash, we've got people
5:06
experimenting in interesting ways. And I think that's that's very helpful because if it
5:12
works, then all of a sudden, it freeze lasi libertarians out there to
5:16
say start saying what they really think, and maybe some of these ideas become
5:20
politically marketable in the US. You know, Ron Paul got a few votes
5:26
by saying undefed, but veif Ramaswami got some votes by saying we'll close down
5:30
the FBI and we and the Education Department and fire three quarters of you know,
5:35
nobody took it seriously, but it made him noticeable and he got some
5:40
votes. So now that these things are actually conceivable, that makes it a
5:46
more interesting political platform because maybe you can actually do it, you know,
5:50
cool, I would think, I mean, really, you know the paradigm,
5:58
it's totally anti libertyism, it's anti personal freedom, it's anti economic freedom,
6:04
all of these things. And yet here we are and people are actually
6:11
doing it. And is it perfect. No, we're not trying to get
6:15
perfection here. But I think that the knowledge, so the basis thesis of
6:24
libertarianism in terms of free markets is that prices are the most effective communication tool
6:30
that we have. And when you have unlimited participants in a market, and
6:34
the price is being set freely. The market allocates resources more efficiently than if
6:41
the government. As you know, then if Russia has a guy at the
6:46
bakery, the communist bakery, allocating bread saying all right, you get one
6:51
loaf, you get two, you get three, that it works better.
6:57
And now we're actually getting the opportunity to through the thesis, right. And
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I don't know if we're so dumb down that people won't even know nirvana when
7:09
they experience it as close to nirvana as you get, right, But this
7:15
experiment is really exciting. Yeah, it really was. It's fascinating to watch
7:24
and see we in the last let's say a decade or so, maybe a
7:28
little longer, we've seen some guys come along who have kind of opened the
7:32
Overton window in American politics where there's more stuff you can talk about as feasible
7:38
now. And Ron Paul did that to an extent, but he was way
7:42
ahead of his time. And Trump comes along with a basically America First populist
7:48
platform, which both the Republicans and the Democrats thought that was just absolute lunacy.
7:54
But he comes in and all of a sudden, you know, forty
7:56
percent of the population will vote for something like that, and now all of
8:01
them everybody's thinking, wow, okay, maybe you know, building that wall
8:05
can really be done. It's not just a campaign slogan. And maybe bringing
8:09
our jobs back from China is an actual possibility. Things like that have become
8:16
legitimate goals now instead of just campaign slogans that you're going to forget about the
8:20
minute you get elected. Right, And then the stuff in Latin America is
8:24
kind of adding to a list of things that you can cobble together into a
8:28
somewhat libertarian political platform. So this can't be good. I mean, there's
8:35
no guarantee that the stuff that's being done now succeeds, but the fact,
8:39
yeah, but the fact that it's being tried and that the initial results are
8:45
good is a very big deal. So so far, so good, and
8:50
if we go back, all right, there are examples where libertarianism worked and
8:54
it's still working, all right. Hong Kong is a perfect example where they
9:00
had new resources and you know, basically it was a free for all economy
9:07
and it became very wealthy till they gave it back to the communists. And
9:11
then Singapore, i would argue, is a place where that has happened.
9:16
And you can even make the argument of Monaco, but Monica is a place
9:20
where people already had money just fled to to not have to pay taxes.
9:26
But this was the function of the democracy in America, having these states as
9:33
the laboratory for all these ideas, and then the good ideas would beat the
9:37
would win out over the bad ideas, and the good ideas would be implemented.
9:43
But somehow we've gone totally astray. And yet these small Latin American countries
9:48
have picked up the gauntlet and they're actually doing kind of living the American dream
9:54
if you will. You know, it's amazing, Yeah, it really is.
10:00
You know, the earlier version of the United States was closer to the
10:05
libertarian ideal, just because government was so much smaller. You know, if
10:09
government is ten percent of the economy, then ninety percent of the economy is
10:16
largely operating on its own right, just free people pursuing their own dreams.
10:22
But when the government gets up to forty fifty percent of the economy, then
10:26
you know that the whole free individual idea becomes an ideal that doesn't actually happen
10:33
in real life. And that's where we are now in the US. You
10:35
know, the government has has gotten more and more powerful over time and gotten
10:39
bigger and bigger. But see when it crashes, when we have the currency
10:46
crisis and the death bust and all these things that we're headed for at an
10:50
accelerating rate, then one of the things that will become conventional wisdom is that
10:58
we can we can't have a government this big because we can't afford it,
11:03
and so we have to shrink it in order to not continue to take on
11:07
debt at bankrupt us again. So that that's going to open up a lot
11:13
of rhetorical space or ideas for getting by with a smaller government. And you
11:20
know that's going to be fascinating. We've got to we've got to stay healthy,
11:22
cherry, So we participated. Now when the time domes, Hey,
11:26
I'd never thought I would live to see this, John, you know,
11:30
I really never thought I would. But here we are, and it's pretty
11:35
darn exciting. Yeah it is. I mean, we're barely seeing it now
11:39
though, because the countries that are doing it they're not they're not globally consequential
11:43
or anything, but they're they're interesting laboratories for this stuff. So you know,
11:48
here's hoping that the results are good enough that they're not discredited. Yeah,
11:54
and if it's if it's debatable two years from now how these countries are
11:58
doing, that'll be good enough. That means that, you know, everybody's
12:03
system is debatable all around the world. And then here we've got a couple
12:05
of libertarian ones that are doing at least as well as some others. So
12:09
that's a very big deal if it happens. Hey, big deal, and
12:13
big deal. Well, there's still other things happening in the world, even
12:16
though it's hard to believe. Hey, so the AI bubble, but in
12:22
theory AI artificial intelligence is unlimited, so the bubble could be unlimited. Right,
12:31
Well, boy, this just came out of nowhere, didn't the day
12:33
I was a concept two years ago and then it became a reality almost instantly.
12:39
It's amazing. Yeah, when when you combine artificial intelligence, which is
12:48
is now basically increasing in power exponentially, with quantum computers, which is another
12:54
thing that's apparently coming along pretty quickly, you know, in which computing power
13:01
is not just the orders of magnitude, but whatever comes afterworders of magnitude,
13:07
faster and more accurate than what we have. So you've got AIS operating with
13:13
basically brains that are strongly super human, you know, so the world is
13:18
going to get very interesting very fast. But then the AI bubble, though
13:24
in the stock market, is one of those things that is not just going
13:28
to be lending her or exponential or anything like that. It's it's going to
13:33
burst because bubbles burst. And right now you know that you've got the AI
13:39
mania pulling up the NASDA and by extension, the S and P five hundred.
13:43
But that's not very many companies doing that. There's like ten companies.
13:46
You take them out of the S and P five okay, lead leave them
13:50
in the S n P five hundred, and the S and P five hundred
13:52
is at all time hime. You take them out, and it's in a
13:56
bear market. You know, those companies mean so much to the overall stock
14:00
indexes, and that's a sign of the end of a cycle. You know,
14:03
when the leadership of the market is so narrow that it's literally something you
14:09
can count on two hands, then that's the end of the cycle. And
14:13
this time it's narrower and more richly valued than it was in nineteen ninety nine.
14:18
So we Basically, while we weren't looking a new tech bubble blew up.
14:22
That's the biggest tech bubble of all time. So that means the bus
14:26
will be commensurately huge when the time comes. Yeah, I'm inclined to agree
14:31
with you there, John. You know, it's hard to assess these things
14:37
until after the thing blows up. And remember, like we talked about it
14:43
many times, like very hard to know you're in a bubble until after the
14:50
bubble bursts, right, I mean that's what we really see over and over
14:56
again, where if you know Green Span, you know, oh, we're
15:03
not in a bubble, We're not in a bubble, And the next thing,
15:05
you know, yeah, maybe we are in a bubble, right,
15:09
Yeah, Yeah, that's the people who are benefiting from the bubble choose not
15:13
to think of it as a bubble, and the people who missed it tend
15:18
to see it really clearly as a bubble. So you know, and I'm
15:24
definitely in the camp of people who missed the AI bubble. But well,
15:28
you know, bubble's always burst We've seen so many of them so over the
15:33
past forty years they've all burst in and this one is in its form no
15:41
different than any of those other bubbles you've got massive valuations. Well, this
15:45
time it's different because it's part of the everything bubble, because there's a housing
15:48
bubble at the same time, there's the AI bubble, and commercial real estate
15:54
was sort of kind of a bubble for a little while. Now it's it's
15:56
bursting. And so of course government bonds were a massive bubble, you know,
16:03
in the sense that negative interest rates by definition are a bond bubble.
16:08
So yeah, we have so many bubbles going on at the same time that
16:12
the AI bubble may not even be the biggest one, but it's definitely the
16:18
most spectacular. And then you know cryptos. You could argue that fifty or
16:23
fifty thousand dollars bitcoin is it back to being a bubble again. So this
16:29
is a crazy world. And once they start popping, I don't know.
16:33
I don't know how one bubble survives if the others start to blow up.
16:37
And I don't think that's well in there. I think one old burst,
16:40
whichever one it is, and it'll take the rest of them down. Yeah,
16:42
ride they'll all go. When one goes, they all go, right,
16:48
I think that most certainly don't. I don't think there's any way around
16:51
it. Yeah, but you know it's hard to just so hard to know
16:55
which one is Furst. Yeah, well you'll know when they go though,
17:00
right that there won't be any question about it when they pop, and they
17:06
always do. I really want, I really want to be short the Nasdak
17:11
when this happens, and that hasn't worked so far in the past year.
17:15
But remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solid.
17:21
Oh yeah, I found that out a few times in the slash. But
17:25
you know, shorting in Vidia is the kind of a knee jerk obvious thing.
17:30
But that's that is just too crazy, dangerous because you just don't know
17:37
how far the AI bubble is going to run, like you said, But
17:41
shorting that the Nasdak is a little easier because then you don't need in Vidia
17:47
to collapse. If Apple, you know, iPhone sales slow down and their
17:52
new virtual reality thing doesn't work out, and that's Google has a butt light
18:00
moment with it its new AI and everybody starts leaving. You know, yeah,
18:04
did you see that about that was hilarious? I mean it won't do
18:10
a picture of a happy white couple, right, I mean, like,
18:14
what's that about they built extreme woke into an AI and then released it in
18:22
the world. I would just like to know, you know, what their
18:26
thought process was leading up to that, Like, did they think it was
18:30
going to convince everybody that that was actual reality and convert the world to not
18:37
that point of view? It's insane? Yeah, or I think nobody would
18:41
notice. See, those are the two things that at least makes sense as
18:45
a belief, But they're both crazy right there. It's hard to imagine that
18:49
anybody, especially people working for a corporation, would have thought either of those
18:53
things. But those are the only two explanations because they couldn't have thought that
19:00
they were doing something that was unassailable, you know, that it was just
19:03
exactly the right way to do it. They were they were working an angle
19:07
here, but I just don't know what the angle was, you know,
19:11
and they blew it big time. I mean that that was super, super
19:14
humiliating for them to have the whole world going, WHOA, what a?
19:18
You know? Bullshit? Will who ki? What did you do? You
19:21
know? It's your bud light moment and danger will run that. That cannot
19:26
be pleasant for the guys at Google. Right now, Hey, will it
19:30
be go? Woke and go broke. Right, Well, you know it,
19:36
it definitely hurt their brand to do something this blatantly weird. Right,
19:42
So the question is does it matter to something like Alphabet that has some multiple,
19:51
multiple billion dollar income streams or is it something that it does matter because
19:56
its stock price is so richly value. I don't know, we'll see.
20:00
I think it's just a weird that, you know, because it arguably it's
20:04
a bubble too, right, I mean, it's done nothing but go up
20:08
all these years. Right, Yeah, you know, I heard an interview
20:12
with Bill Lackman, the hedge fun guy, a while ago, mean,
20:15
was saying he's long Alphabet because its valuation has moved into a range that he
20:22
thinks is acceptable. So I don't know, And it's possible, but they
20:27
grew so much, they grew into their meet their pedrasuo or something. But
20:33
oh so I don't know. So I have to just recount a great story
20:37
here. Maybe maybe there is a blowback happening. They found some interview I
20:45
did two or three years ago that was talking about the global health issue,
20:49
but not in any objectionable means whatsoever, and they cited it and they suspended
20:56
it, and I clicked the appeal button and I won the appeal. Job,
21:02
I actually won the appeal. It's like what never happened before in my
21:07
life? So, how have you been an appeal? How do you think
21:10
their appeal process works? You think it's humans or do you think it's their
21:12
AI? Because if it's their AI, it's got to be a AI.
21:18
But that AI would not have sided with you in the appeal, right,
21:23
it's got to be their AI. Right, it has to be. But
21:26
yeah, how could I win if it's it makes no sense? Right?
21:33
You know? It could be that they're they're just humming to realize that the
21:38
psychological and political tide is turning. Now they're going to have to adapt to
21:44
it. Like have you seen any interviews with Jamie Diamond lately? Yeah,
21:51
he's been sounded like a regular MAGA guy. He sounds like he's going to
21:56
run for president on the Republican Party. Chick. Well, I mean,
22:00
he sounds like he's preparing for something like that. I actually don't think he
22:03
would do it, but that saying things like what he said is what you
22:07
would do to prepare the ground for something like that. In other words,
22:11
he was saying, yeah, Trump was right, about this, and Trump
22:12
was right about that we need to respect his voters and stuff. So I
22:17
think that's another sign that the political tide is turning, and some big players
22:23
are trying to get on board with what they see as an evolving collective consciousness
22:30
in the US. You know that were it's no longer tolerable to be hyper
22:37
woke for a billion people. Yeah, and so the marketplace of ideas is
22:44
having to adapt to that. So that's good. You know. That means
22:48
the thing was kind of a temporary derangement of the system instead of a really
22:55
profound cultural change. I think we wanted to be permanent. Yeah, speaking
23:00
of which, we should talk about this. Even though it's political and this
23:03
is a family show, we don't easily talk about it. But Trump's judgments
23:08
there in New York, Now, this happens to be a topic that I
23:12
know a little something about, having practiced law in New York for thirty years
23:18
in run a legal printing company where we were filing appeals to the Appellate Division.
23:26
So you lose in the Supreme Court, and then you have the Appellate
23:30
Division of the Supreme Court, and in Manhattan, that's the first apartment okay,
23:36
and that's your appeal of right. Every case can be appealed there,
23:40
and then when you lose there or you get reversed there, then you appealed
23:45
to the Court of Appeals, which is the highest court in New York State.
23:49
So the way it works is, if you get a money judgment against
23:52
you, all right, you have thirty days to file a notice of appeal.
24:00
Basically, enforcement can begin from the day that that judgment is entered.
24:06
However, you can either do one of two things to stop a judgment from
24:11
being enforced, and in this case, seizure of his buildings is properties is
24:18
the enforcement that she's threatening. Number one is you can pay the money into
24:26
court for the judgment. So you write a check four hundred million dollars,
24:30
you pay it into court, and then while the appeal is underway, the
24:37
money isn't touched, okay. And the other way you do it is through
24:41
a surety, an insurance company or a bonding company, and generally ordinary people
24:48
put up ten percent that's the cost of the bond. In this case,
24:55
he would have a surety and those are early licensed insurance companies in New York
25:02
State, and he would agree with them what their fee would be which probably
25:07
in his case can be one or two percent, and he could also put
25:11
up a letter of credit. So you know, all this talk about seizure,
25:18
that's one thing, but that's just not going to happen because he's going
25:22
to appeal it. Same thing with the other case, the the defamation case
25:27
where he got an eighty four million dollar judgment against him, and these judgments,
25:33
you know, normally the courts are not going to allow judgments of these
25:37
size. In this case, the business case, the four hundred million,
25:41
I think there's really good grounds for reversal vacating it. But the backlaw,
25:48
the backlash that's happening with trucker is saying they're not going to go to New
25:52
York City. I don't know if that's real or not, because most truckers
25:56
in the right mind don't want to go to New York anyway. It's such
25:59
a big castle. They get premium pay for it. But if ten fifteen
26:04
percent John decide they don't want to go to New York City, that's going
26:08
to have dramatic effects upon the New York City economy. Oh yeah, well,
26:15
you know, these verdicts are barely politicized and they'll be reversed out more
26:19
than likely. But here's what's funny about this. The strategy on the part
26:23
of the Democrats was, well, we tie Trump up in court so he
26:27
can't campaign. He's going to be sitting in court all day long and the
26:30
publicity's going to be terrible and everything. But the way it turned out was
26:34
that Trump goes to one of these court hearings, then he goes out to
26:37
the courthouse steps, it's rolled by reporters, and he makes a campaign speech.
26:44
So it's actually better as far as campaigning goes, for him to go
26:48
to court come out because you know, he goes to like, you know,
26:52
the state fair in Boise Idaha or something like that. Yeah, some
26:57
people see him, but it doesn't make the night news. But he stands
27:00
on the court house steps in New York and makes his speech and it's everywhere.
27:06
Everybody sees it. So he's actually getting more campaigning done under under all
27:11
these politicized lawsuits than he would otherwise, or at least more exposure. So
27:18
it's actually about right. Everybody who sees it comes to the conclusion that it's
27:22
politicized. So then the percentage of people who think he's being unfairly persecuted goes
27:30
up with time with each of these work cases, so they're actually helping him,
27:33
that's the point, you know. Yeah, And he's probably it's probably
27:37
physically easier for him to spend the day, you know, sitting in court
27:41
than make a speech afterwards. Then it would be to travel to five different
27:44
places to make stump speech. So it's actually easier on physically, and it's
27:48
working for him politically. Yeah, it's any consequences, they're everywhere. This
27:56
is the craziest thing. And you know, these all these cases appear to
28:02
be blowing up, and you know, the closer we get to the election,
28:07
they for this strategy doing work. They needed to eliminate him six eight
28:11
months ago, but now you can't in the United States. I don't see
28:15
it. You know, convict your principal opponent in the upcoming election and sends
28:23
them to jail six months before before the election. I mean, how do
28:29
you do that? I just don't see it. Job highly unlikely, You're
28:33
right, So where they're going to do instead? I'll just say it because
28:37
do you saw that Mike Ben's interview with Tucker Carlson. Problemly right? Yeah,
28:41
Okay, because basically what they will do, based on what he said
28:45
in that interview, what they'll do is they'll just steal the election again,
28:49
so you know, they'll they're trying to get Trump run into jail. That's
28:53
not going to work. So their their fallback is, well, one of
28:57
two things. One is you sard of war. Yeah, a major false
29:03
flag of some sort. It makes the election all about not changing horses and
29:08
in the live the stream things like that, or they just flat out and
29:12
steal the election. So that's that's the strategy. And then now you got
29:17
Republicans talking about, well, if they're going to do it, we're going
29:18
to do it. And so now the Republicans are going to do vote harvest
29:22
sting and stuff like that too. So so it might just be whoever's better
29:27
at stealing elections, it will be the next president. You know. That's
29:32
how it's going to work out. Oh man, it's a cynical job.
29:37
But speaking of cynical, so what about these interest rates? Yeah, oh
29:44
funny. The interest rate was supposed to come down the Fed funds, right,
29:48
and the tenure treasury yield we're supposed to be falling hard by now leading
29:52
up to the election because it's an election year. Yeah, you know,
29:56
we got a couple of inflation numbers that went in the other direction. The
30:00
are at the CPI for services core indexes pretty that's pretty obscure. But it
30:08
went up by an annualized rate of eight percent just lately, and then the
30:14
PPI services went up dramatically too, So now the Fed can't cut interest rates
30:21
with any inflation measure rising at an annual rate of eight percent, So they're
30:26
making hawkish noises now like they're not going to cut interest rates at all for
30:30
a long time. And the ten year treasure yielded from the drop from five
30:36
percent to three eighty, then now it's back up to four thirty, which
30:41
means mortgage the mortgage interest rate is up above seven percent, which means the
30:48
housing market is frozen and will continue to be frozen until prices dropped by forty
30:52
or fifty percent. So it's a it's a mess out there when the Fed
30:59
tightens and and then doesn't immediately turn around and lose it again, you know,
31:03
because we're just gonna have tight money for a while. It looks like
31:06
it certainly would appear to be the case, wouldn't it. And the only
31:10
reason the stock market is up now is because of AI, right, because
31:14
if you've got the FED talking about higher for longer and the ten year treasury
31:19
yield going up by twenty or thirty basis points, that's bad for equities that
31:26
would normally give us an equities bear marketing. But thanks to AI, stocks
31:32
are up at the same time interest rates areround but huts. Yeah, then,
31:37
yeah, because you know, historically, when the FED cut, all
31:41
you had to do was track the discount rate, and you knew when the
31:45
FED raise rates, recession stocks go down. When the when the Fed you
31:52
know, cuts rates, stocks go up with a lag in each kick.
31:57
Yeah, we'd wait a few months after for invest then, but that was
32:00
kind of a foregone conclusion, right, Yeah, yeah, not so much.
32:07
Well, now you have so many cross currents out there because we've got
32:09
the ADI bubble, and we've got brazy geopolitics right now, and we've got
32:15
a really contentious election going on right now, and you know, there's there's
32:21
apparently a lot of cash on the sidelines, in part because the government deserving
32:25
such massive deficits. You know, there's there's more money in the system that
32:30
you would normally think with interest rates going up. So yeah, there's a
32:34
lot of stuff happening, and in the end fundamentals will win out, but
32:38
not quite yet. It looks like, ay, the market can stay irrational
32:45
longer than you can stay solvent and never forget it. Right. Hey,
32:49
So gold gold is like kind of holding steady. It looks like it's in
32:52
a holding pattern. Above two thousand, it had that one dash below you
32:57
could see that they're setting it up up to kind of see you'll have these
33:01
tests of two thousand. Maybe it'll go below for a while, but two
33:07
thousand looks like that's it. Well, so far, so good. That's
33:10
been support for a couple of months. And the longer it stays support,
33:15
in other words, the longer gold doesn't go down and stay down below two
33:19
thousand, the more we start to trust it. And that's not bad for
33:22
the gold mining stocks. Because this was earning season, so a lot of
33:28
the big gold miners reported, and they had generally okay earnings because they're wages,
33:35
wage costs were up. Energy was a little more expensive, but gold
33:37
was higher. There was high enough to give them wider margins and better earnings
33:44
and more cash flows. So I think the miners are the big beneficiaries of
33:49
gold staying above two thousand for a while because it allows us to build higher
33:54
levels of cash flow into our projections for the gold miners and maybe makes them
34:00
or interesting investments. You know, Stanley Druckenbiller, the big hedge fund guy,
34:06
just sold some tech stocks and bought some gold miners. He is highly
34:09
unusual out there, you know, So that that's ah, yeah, all
34:16
right, go ahead, sure, yeah, I was just I'm just going
34:22
to say that that potentially gives more people permission to buy gold miners because somebody
34:28
like that is doing the end true. All right, Well, that is
34:30
it for today. We'll be back in a couple of weeks. Make sure
34:32
you go over to John's substack rabinosubstack dot com and sign up for his newsletter
34:39
there and his prolific writing, and sign up for our newsletter Financial Survival Network
34:45
dot com. John. Good catching up, and we'll talk to you a
34:49
couple of weeks. Thanks caring See, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
34:53
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35:00
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