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Sunday MLB + WNBA Bets 7/6/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man, with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all all in four that's
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man, with bookends the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack, Man,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: don't even know what day it is anymore. Man, back
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: have with you, as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Oh and five the worst month
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slumpy,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody? It's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: towed back with you for Sunday, July sixth? Is that
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: what day it is? I don't know. I never know.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Obviously you saw that intro. I never know what's going
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: on with day it is? Whatever? This is better off
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: dead two and one on the show yesterday. I do
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: know that as we started off a little bit rough.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: It's been rough, guys. Actually I've been doing pretty well recently.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Baseball is starting to heat up again. But the Milwaukee
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Brewers didn't get there for me yesterday, even though Chad
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Patrick did outpitch who the hell was pitching? Oh, Cal Quantrill,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: right was pitching from Miami. Patrick outpitched him. I mean
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: we had a situation early in the game, I think
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: maybe the second inning, maybe the third inning where Miami
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: or excuse me, Milwaukee had the bases loaded with one
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: out and didn't score any additional runs. So that was
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: very frustrating. And then Milwaukee, or excuse me, Milwaukee, I dude,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I keep talking about the opposite team that I mean
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: every single time. I can't get it right. Miami loaded
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the bases late in the game in a two to
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: two game at that point, and did get a couple
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: of runs home I believe, with two outs as well.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Very unfortunately, I wound up winning the game. So the
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: bullpens were the issue yesterday for the most part. In
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: that game. Did not go our way on that one,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: or my way at least, so that was a loser.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: The other two were pretty easy wins, though. On the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: San Francisco Giants that won seven to two. I gave
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that one out. I think I completely got that handicapped correct.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Severino not good. A's bullpen was a very good either.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's pitching good throughout the game, so that was easy.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And then the under in Pittsburgh Seattle was no sweat either.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: That was a one nothing final. I don't even remember
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: which team won the game. Seattle probably didn't even matter.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: The Borrows got us through five scoreless. For Pittsburgh. I
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: think Castillo didn't allow anything either. If I'm not mistaken,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I think the one run came home late in the game,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: so that was an easy under winner there. So two
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: and one winning day. Not bad. I'm gonna give out
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: two baseball players today. I do have a number of
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: baseball leans as well. I mean, you know me, I
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: talk about every baseball game it's out there. We have
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: some interesting starting pitchers pitching today as well. There are
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: a few unexpected pitchers going today. It's gonna be interesting
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: to talk about. At least we'll talk about WNBA first,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: even though I'm not gonna recommend to play on any
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: of these games, not a whole lot to even say, really,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: but we do have Seattle against New York. The money
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: looks like it is coming in on Seattle here, Liberty
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: or down for five and a half to five as
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: a home favor. It's sixty percent of tickets on them,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the cash they'll come in on
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Seattle Liberty. I mean, they've been struggling recently. Man still
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: think they're one of the top teams in the league,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: but they've been losing a lot of recent games. They
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: finally did bounce back once they got home. They beat LA,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: so they are sitting at home now. It's a little
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: bit of a revenge spot for them because they did
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: lose at Seattle during the recent road trip, so I
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: do think they're gonna remember that. So to me, I'm
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: not sure that I agree with where the money is
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: coming in on this, even though it seems like the
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: money is basically just saying, well, maybe we don't think
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the Liberty are as good as their numbers look, but
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: as it is right now, I mean, they've been really
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: looking bad recently, so I think there could be some
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: recncy bias involved here and maybe they should be a
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: little bit more of a favorite than they actually are.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: They're really good at home. There's seven and one at
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: home John Quell Jones or how every pronouncer nampt used
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: to be out though for the Liberty, which is kind
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: of a key injury there for them. But other than that,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they're intact. Seattle is coming off a big game, that
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: game where I gave out Seattle on the show and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: they did not cover the minus two but they won
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: by one. The line was down to one and I said,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: you could play money line if you wanted to win
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: that one. They did win pretty big game at Atlanta. Yes,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the Liberty are also going to be a big game,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: but they're playing a third straight road game here, two
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: big games in a row, so I don't think the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: spot is as good for Seattle. So I don't really
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: agree with the market move on that one. I'm definitely
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: not recommending a play though. Then we have Vegas at Connecticut.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Vegas just got absolutely stomped by Indiana, and that was
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Indiana without Caitlin Clark as well. Vegas they just can't
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: get it right, man. I mean it was their defense
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: and rebounding that was a problem earlier in the season,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: and now it looks like their offense is a problem.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, they got absolutely thrashed. Man. When you come
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: off losing a game by thirty points almost or well
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: whatever that was twenty seven and to a clerkless Indiana team,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I do think you're gonna be a little bit pissed
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and bounce back from that, even though it is a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: third straight road game, but they're playing Connecticut. Connecticut's the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: worst team in the WNBA, and I think significantly so.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But do you want to lay seventeen and a half
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: points on the road here? Probably not, even though this
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: is definitely a mismatch here and people are gonna look
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: at this and think, how am I laying seventeen and
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: a half of the team it's below five hundred. Well,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: that's just how bad Connecticut is. And I still think
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Vegas might be a little bit better than the record
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: would suggest. Of course, they did lose a couple of
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: games when Wilson was out, but she is back. This
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: lineup from sixteen to seventeen and a half, sixty seven
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, seventy five percent of the cash on the aces,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: so the money looks like it is coming in on
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the aces. I wouldn't really disagree with that when it's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: just a matter of that line just seems really really extreme,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: but maybe it's warranted because Connecticut is that bad. And
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: then Chicago at Minnesota. Chicago also a bad team, Minnesota
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: very good team. But Minnesota did just play yesterday, so
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is on a back to back. They beat Golden
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: State yesterday. They're not traveling, they're staying at home, but
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: they are obviously the team in the worst rest scenario.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: They're down from fourteen and a half to fourteen. Another
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: big number here, fifty percent of tickets, fifty three percent
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming into Chicago. I wouldn't disagree with
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: the Chicago side and that one just because you're kind
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: of fading the the lack of rest for Minnesota at
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the very least in Minnesota does have Phoenix up next
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: with is kind of a bigger game because Phoenix has
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: been playing pretty well, so they might not pay as
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: much of as much attention to Chicago. So those are
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on the WNBA. I know nobody cares, but
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I look for there are some money making opportunities in
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the WNBA. Man, Christopher, what's up man? Thanks for the reposts. Hinchy,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out with people. All right,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: let's go to baseball, I mean baseball. I always find
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: baseball interesting, man. I think we do have some interesting
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: things going on here, and I'm gonna give out a
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: play on this first game up here on the of Braves.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I like the Braves to avoid the sweet peer man
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore. I mean Baltimore. There's still not a good team, dude.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I know Atlanta is not playing well. I know they've
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: lost both games in the series so far, but I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna motivate Atlanta a little bit. You don't
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: want to get swept by Baltimore. Man, I mean that
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: is just disgusting. I still think Atlanta, just based on
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: their talent level, they have profar back now. I mean,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is not as bad as their record would tell
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: you that they are. After starting the season zh to seven,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: they haven't been that bad. Really. Baltimore maybe not as
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: bad as their record looks either, but they're certainly not good.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I still think Baltimore is the worst team in the
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: AL East, even though it's a good division. So I
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: think the Braves them being a home favorite is warranted.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: And I'm recommending splitting this beat half on the run
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: line minus one and a half runs at plus one
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: forty and half on the minus one forty two. If
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: you want to lay the juice, lay the minus one
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: forty two just to get them to win the game outright.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I think that's an okay move as well. I just
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: think the line is getting a little bit into the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: high range. It's mostly in the minus one fifties out there.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I just saw one book in Massachusetts that had a
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: line that was a little bit less than that. I
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: think it makes sense to do it, and of course,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: if Atlanta wins by one, you'll win a little bit
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: of money. If you do it this way, it's a
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: little bit more of a risk tolerant way to do it.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: You could lay a minus one run line as well
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: if you want to, and then it pushes if they
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: win by one, which is another way to do it
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: and get the price down a little bit on what
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: you're actually paying minus one and a half. I know
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit hard for a home team to
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: cover that because they don't get that final at bat
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: in the nineth thinning if they're already winning, But I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: think they might be able to just do it anyway. Man.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I just think Atlanta is the right side here in
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: this one. Michael, what's up man? Happy Sunday as well?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see get into the handicap for this one.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: The one thing that I do worry about a little
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: bit is that Atlanta did use a decent amount of
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: their bullpen yesterday because they had a bullpend game, which
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: of course was also part of the reason they lost
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: this game. I mean, do you really think they're gonna
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: win a game with bullpen game with Bummer being the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: first guy to take the mound. Probably not, even though
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Dean Creamer is also not good didn't do well yesterday,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: even though he was in good form. Though bleue Wit
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: also had an appearance against his former team and didn't
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: do well and gave up a run. But I think
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: we're okay going with Atlanta full game here because both
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: bullpens got really run out yesterday, and the Orioles bullpen
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: is the worst of the two. So I think we're
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: fine going full game on this. And if you're doing
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: a run line play, you kind of have to really
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: go full game on it. Just give your team the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: most opportunities to score those runs. We're fani Trevor Rodgers here,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: and I know he's been pitching well two point zero
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: five ERA, zero point eight to six whip. Yeah, he's
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: been good. He's given up runs on the road. He
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: hasn't given up any runs at home yet, but he
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: has given up some runs on the road at least.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: But I just don't think he's as good as maybe
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: his maybe he looked in his first game. He did
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: really well against the Red Sox, and he did really
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: well in one game against Texas. Their offense isn't that good.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: But his last start was facing Texas again right away,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: and Texas did a lot better against him the next
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: time out. He only went five and a third innings
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the next time instead of eight, gave up two runs,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: walk three guys. So in the month of June he
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: has six walks to thirteen strikeouts, which doesn't really make
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: me too confident in him. I mean, that is too
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: many walks. And again I keep pointing out with Rogers,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched for a while, or he hadn't before
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: this year. He'd been out of major League baseball for
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: a little while. If you looked at his Triple A
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: stats or his minor league stats this year, his numbers
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: weren't very good. His ERA was like in the five.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: So Rogers, I mean he when he's at his peak,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: he does have good stuff, but I'm just not really
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: sure that he is. And I mean, overall, his career
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: numbers aren't even that good. One point three to eight
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: whip on his career is quite high, four point two
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to five ERA. So I'm expecting some regression out of Rogers,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: not expecting him to do that well against the Braves.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the Braves have seen him before
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: because he was with Miami. Actually minus he did pitch
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: last year, I thought he missed last year, but he
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: did pitch last year. He was in the Braves division
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: all this time, so the Braves are one of the
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: more familiar teams with Rogers. I think that will help
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the Braves offense because they know how to hit him.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: They saw him last year. They have a lot of
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, one hundred and one at bats
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: twenty six to nine strike out walk ratio against some
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: two seventy seven average, seven to ninety two o ps.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: So the Braves do have decent batting numbers against Trevor
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Rodgers here. Especially a Kunya have six for fourteen with
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: three doubles, a home run, four walks. So if you
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: want some player props there, I recommend hits plus runs
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: plus RBIs Akunya does really well against Rogers. I think
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Rogers is the worst of these two pitchers here. Man.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: This is an early game, by the way, This is
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: starting in about an hour. He's going up against Grant Holmes,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: who has been decent for the Braves here. Three point
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: four to seven ERA, one point two to four whip
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: is a little bit higher than I'd like to see,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: but he has been good at home two point seventy
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: five homey ra and he's pitching well recently. Man. He
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: had ten strikeouts in his last outing against Anaheim. His
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate has been pretty high over the last several starts.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Real even those walk rate has been too high, Holmes,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: he's a hard thrower. He definitely walks too many guys.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I know the Braves haven't been that good
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: behind him recently. I mean they have. What is that,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: they've lost five of his last six starts. I understand
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: all that. A lot of that it wasn't really his fault.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, he didn't allow more than three earn runs
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in any of those starts, so the bullpen didn't help
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: him out in some of those games. The offense wasn't
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: behind him in some of those games. He had double
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: digit strikeouts in two of the last four. So he
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: is pitching fairly well, even though again I do worry
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: that he's walking multiple guys in every single start, but
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: overall he's limiting the damage, limiting the runs. Had a
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: three point five to one ERA in June, even though
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: thirty nine to fifteen startle walk ratio. That is really
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: really way too many walks. But it's a lot of
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: strikeouts too. He's getting a lot of strikeouts man and
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: up against other Orioles, they've never seen him before, so
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I think that's an another advantage to Holmes, where when
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: you have a guy who kind of knows what he's doing,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: he throws really hard. He's up against an offense that
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: hasn't figured him out yet. They haven't seen him before,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: they tend to take some time to try to figure
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: him out. So I do think Holmes does have the
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: upper hand here. He's the completely unfamiliar of the two pitchers,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: so I think familiarity wise, big advantage to the Braves there.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm going with the Braves in that game. And
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: I will clarify once again that I am not actually
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: betting these games right now, even though I'm giving them
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: out as if I were. I mean, I have been
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: doing it for like eighteen years. Because I lost my
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: actual job recently, I've kind of just taken a little
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: bit of a step back from it to try to
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: conserve some money, even though maybe I should be doing
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: it because I would be making money recently here on baseball.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: But whatever that is the case, I'm only gonna have
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: one more play I'm gonna give out, and it is
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: going to be on a total later down the line.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Here we do have the Red Sox against Washington Red Sox.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: They are on the verge of a sweep here, and
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I know, just like I said with with the Braves there,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I mean a lot of times teams will be a
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: little bit extra motivated try to avoid the sweep. I
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: don't think the Red Sox really have a look ahead
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Spidier because I think they're playing Colorado next when they
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: come back home, so I don't really think it's a
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: look ahead. But the Red Sox have looked very good
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: in the series, scoring double digit runs in both games.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox offensive has all of a sudden exploded
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: over the last like five games or so. After everybody
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: was making fun of the Devers tradeo, the Red Sox
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: can't hit anymore. Now, all of a sudden, they're just
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: blowing up. Their offense is blowing up recently, which is
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: good for me as a Red Sox fan. This is
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be interesting if they scored double digit runs win
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: two games and then they lose the game that Crochet
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: is pitching. That would be a very Red Sox thing
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to do, wouldn't it. But yeah, the Red Sox they've
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: dominated the series so far. Walker Bueller actually gave them
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a decent start yesterday, which I did not expect. Bullpen
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: usage pretty similar on both sides there. Washington does have
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two bullpens. Washington terrible bullpen. Have
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to keep that in mind. Garret Crochet obviously, he's one
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of the best pitchers in baseball, so you know you
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: pretty much know what you're gonna get out of him,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: more or less a two point three four ERA in
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the season one point oh four whip actually better on
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the road to two point oh one road ERA fifty
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: five to eight strike a walk ratio in six starts
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: in June, Red Sox won five of those starts. After
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox weren't giving him enough run support earlier on,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: they backed him quite well over the last several starts,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: had a two point nine ERA over that the course
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: of that month. He's just been excellent. Even though he
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: did allow five runs in a couple of those starts,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: he still went deep into both of those starts and
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: racked up nine strikeouts in each of those starts with
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: only one walk, so it wasn't even bad in those starts.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: One walk apiece. I should say so. He's still pitching well. Overall,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the Nationals only have nine at bats against some of
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: the they are three for nine off him. He has
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: given up a three thirty three average in oney op
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: to them. So not the greatest numbers for Crochet against Washington,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: although I'm not ready to say that, oh because of
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a small sample size there that means Crchet is gonna
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: do bad in this game. I don't really think so.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: But Washington we got a real wildcard here as they
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: are starting Shinosuke ogasawar Ogasawara is that he pronounces oga Sawara. Yeah,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: I'm like, wait a minute, there's some extra syllables in there.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: He's making his major league debut. He's twenty seven. I
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: think he probably was pitching professionally in Japan for a bit.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: And he is an interesting pitcher. He doesn't throw that
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: hard as fastball is like low nineties for the most part,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: but he has basically a seven pitch arsenal, and he
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: has like a weird arm motion, and he's like a
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: command pitcher, so he tries to locate his spots in
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: fool batters just by throwing so much weird off speed
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: stuff at them. I know, he has like a really
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: weird sweeper I guess, with a lot of movement on it.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: So of course the Red Sox have never seen this
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: guy before, so that might give the Red Sox a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of a problem early on in this game
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out this guy is you know, when
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: you're trying to figure out a guy who's a lefty,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: has a weird arm motion, he's thrown very odd breaking
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: stuff at you, you might take a little while to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: try to figure this guy out. So that might be
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an issue. And for Ogasawara, I
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: did look at his minor league numbers and they're like, okay,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Like I think it's Era is in the fours, which
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: isn't that great, but he's like his whip I think
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: is like one point two. It seems like he is
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: walking a few too many guys in the miners. But
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: other than that, I mean, I think he's ah. He
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: might be able to fool hitters early on man, just
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: because they don't know who he is. So I'm kind
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: of leaning to a first five inning under in this game.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to risk it though with Crochet,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: you know, having the bad matchup numbers there, even though
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size with Oga Sawara not being
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: very predictable at all, total is down for Mate and
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: have to eight a slight tick down, although we see
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of tickets eight and nine percent of
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over over the eight eight and
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: a half for the full game. But that's of course
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: taking into account how bad Washington's bullpen is. I could
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: see both offenses struggling in this game early in the game, though,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: so maybe a lean to the first five under, but
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: I really don't want to touch this game otherwise. Red
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Sox are too heavy a favorite here on the road
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: down for minus two sixty two to fifty five seventy
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: five tickets eighty four percent of the cash on them.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, Crochet is obviously the pitcher that's more predictable,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: so you can pretty much almost bank on him at
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: least getting you like a decent start there. But again,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: do you want to lay a price like that on
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: the road with the Red Sox maybe taking their foot
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: off the gas a little bit after they've dominated the series.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to do it, so I will.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I'll be staying off of that game for sure. The Angels. Yeah,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: is that your team? Ander? I mean, the Angels are terrible, dude, Like,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: they're bad. I keep pointing out that their record is
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: way better than they actually are, Like, they've won so
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: many close games. The run differential is terrible. They're minus
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: forty something runs on the season. I mean, they're gonna
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: be a below five hundred team probably for the rest
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of the season. They're bad, dude, they are bad. They
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: have one of the worst bullpends either. Starting pitching isn't
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: even good either. Their offense isn't even that good. Yeah,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: they're not good. They're again, They're just a bad team
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: and their record makes them look better than they actually are.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Philadelphia This is gonna be an interesting pitching
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: matchup as well. Uh. These teams have split the first
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: two games of the series, Philadelphia taking yesterday's game five
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: to one. Philadelphia got a good start out at Ron
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: your Suarez Again yesterday, Philadelphia used more of their bullpend though,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: so I don't love the bullpen situation from Philly. Is
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: their bullpen isn't really that great. Neither of these bullpens
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: are that great. But Philadelphia did use some of their
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: better relievers yesterday. They're gonna be going up against Chase Burns, who, Man,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: I made a mistake trying to back that under in
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: that game that he pitched against the Red Sox. He
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: is really difficult to figure out right now. Man. Burns
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: is a very talented young pitcher. He has really high
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: velocity stuff. He's a power pitcher. He's really good, although
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have that many pitches in his arsenal. He's young.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we're gonna get out of him
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: this time, Man, because he had eight strikeouts and five
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: innings in his debut against the Yankees, which is pretty good.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: But then he turned around and only got one out
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox, didn't strike out anybody, got absolutely
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: slammed by the Red Sox on the road. So I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: am worried man because he is facing another really good
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: offense here in Philadelphia, or a really good offense. The
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are an okay offense better at home. Philadelphia
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: has a powerful offense. Man, So even though I tend
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: to lean towards the young pitcher that the offense is
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: totally unfamiliar with, because obviously Philadelphia has never seen Burns before,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I tend to lean towards the picture in a case
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: like that young guy that has really good stuff like that.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: But after what he did last time out, I don't
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: think he's trending in the right direction right now. I mean,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, he can't possibly do as bad as that again,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: but still, I just don't think we could trust Burns
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: here right now, man, even though I would be kind
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: of leaning towards an under in this game anyway, just
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: because I think he does have an edge with the
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: fact that Philadelphia hasn't seen him before, I worry because
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: of Burn's last outing there. He's going up against Zach Wheeler,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: who obviously is very consistent and very good a two
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: point two seven ERA point nine to one whip, even
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: better at home two point five home ERA. He's been
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: really really good forty two to seven strike a walk
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: ratio in June Philly one to four of his five
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: starts point five eight e R during the month, at
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: least seven strikeouts in every game, at least eight in
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the last four double digit strikeouts last time out, allowed
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: no runs in three straight starts, only allowed two runs
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: in the entire month of June. I mean, he's pitching
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: insane right now. He's obviously in really great for him.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Right now, numbers against the Reds are decent. In fifty
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: four bats, he doesn't dominate them, but has held them
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: to a two fifty nine batting average in seven to
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: twenty two ops fifteen into six strike a walk ratio.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: So I still think Wheeler is trustworthy here, Burns, I mean,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: just because he is good and he's totally unfamiliar. I
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: still am kind of leaning towards an under of some
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: form of this game, probably an under first five innings.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I just think it's a little bit risky with Burns.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: We see fifty nine percent take. It's fifty six percent
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over here, so the money
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: looks like it is kind of coming in on the
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: under a little bit. It's a little bit less juiced
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: on the over eight and a half right now. First
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: five under is the way that I would probably lean
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: in that game. Uh, the Angels for Andrew here up
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: against a really hot Toronto Blue Jays team. Man, I'm
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: kind of expecting Toronto to to suffer a letdown at
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: some point. Man. I was expecting it in the first
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: game of the series, because they just swept the Yankees
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: before this in a four game series, overtook the lead
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: in the AL East. They're three games up on the Yankees.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: After the Yankees continue to lose, maybe the letdown comes
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: here man in the last game of the series, or
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Toronto is on the verge of a sweep here. Anaheim's
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: not really a team that's gonna draw your focus that much.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Toronto's really gonna be looking ahead
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: to the White Sox coming up next, So I don't
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: know what we really want to do about that. I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: don't think it's really a look ahead spot. Both games
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: in this series have been extra inning for three wins
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: for Toronto. Toronto does have the better bullpen, as I mentioned,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's bullpen is terrible, and Anaheim used more of their
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday. As I mentioned yesterday, I thought that Blue
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Jays had basically every advantage yesterday with a much more
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: like consistent starting pitcher. And I know he's old and
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: he's trying to work his way back, but Kolehanowitz is
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: just not a trustworthy pitcher man. Even though he actually
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: went deeper in the game than schurz Er did. Shures
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: are maybe they're kind of keeping an eye on his
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: pitch count a little bit expected Toronto to win yesterday.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: They did. I'm kind of expecting them to win again here, man,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: to be honest, even though yes, Anaheim's trying to avoid
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: the sweet but like I keep saying, sometimes you don't
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: want to run in front of a train like the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays Ara. Now, the Blue Jays have been really
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: good at home thirty one to six, thirty one and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: sixteen record at home. Angels, I mean again, they're still
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: not even as good as their record been indicating, even
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: though they're below five hundred, they're a bad team, dude.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: They're pitching is awful. Yeah, I just not expecting much
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: out of the Angels here at all, man. Their bullpen
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: is one of the worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: pitching for them, and he's one of multiple starters that
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: they have who I think started out the season okay,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: are and are regressing and predictably so. Anderson's not good
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: four point one two ERA one point three to four
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. That is a high whip. He's
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: been really bad on the road five point four to
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: eight road ERA. Had one good start last time out
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on the road with seven strikeouts, didn't allow any runs
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta. That actually really surprised me that he was
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: able to do that, because he was not in good
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: form prior to that, and I still don't really think
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: he is. He had a six point nine to three
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: ERA in June twenty four to nine strike a walk ratio.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: He still did walk to guys in the Atlanta game,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: so he's still kind of walking too many guys. He's
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: not really striking out that many guys some of these starts,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: he's not going deep. Toronto has good offensive numbers against him,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: two and ninety three at bats. They're definitely familiar with him.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Vlad Guerrera really does damage against him seven to thirteen
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: with two doubles, two walks, one strikeout. Overall, he's a
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: lot of two eighty average to Toronto eight thirty three
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: oh ps. And again, Toronto's starting to hit a lot
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: better right now as well, which is kind of expected
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: because they do have some talented hitters on that team.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think Anderson's gonna do well in that game. Man,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: He's up against Kevin Gaussman, who's been kind of a
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: roller coaster. It's kind of hard to predict what you're
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of him from start to start, he
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: could be really amazing. Once starting terrible in the next
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: four point one eighty r a one point one to
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: one whip, I mean, that's a good whip on the season.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse at home though, four
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: point four to three e RAM coming off only along
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: two runs against the Yankees, which is a decent start
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: for him, I mean against a really good offense. Yankees
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: definitely very familiar with him. Although he did walk four
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: guys in that start, you do have to worry about
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Gousman's walk numbers. Over the month of June, he had
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: a five point four six ERA twenty nine to thirteen
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. Walked multiple guys in all but
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: one start, Goussman mostly limiting the damage, though he did
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: have one really bad start against a good Arizona offense
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: give up seven runs. But other than that, he's been
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: pretty consistent recently, not allowing that many runs, which I
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: think might be the case here. I mean, Anaheim's not
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: a very good offense. His numbers are only okay against
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Anaheim and one hundred and five at bats twenty two
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratio is good. Two sixty
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: seven average seven to twenty nine ohps. Does have generally
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers against Anaheim and most of the damage
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: home run wise. Three of the four home runs he's
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: allowed to Anaheim have all been Mike Trout, who's eight
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: for twenty off him three home runs, two walks. Player
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: prop potential there for sure, if you want to go
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: hit plus runs with RBI's Trout does do damage against Houseman,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: but most of Vannheim's other hitters don't do that well.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: I'm leading Toronto in that game. The money seems to
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: disagree with that though, but again, I think Toronto has
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the better start, of the better bullpen and the better offense.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So it's like, if you're disagreeing with Toronto, you're really
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: just banking on the situation. You're banking on Toronto just
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: not having a lot of focus here. After winning the
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: last two games, seventy percent of tickets, only sixty four
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Toronto. They are down from
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty five to minus one eighty I don't
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: necessarily agree with the market read on that one, though,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: even though you tend to not want to fade the
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: market reads, and I know I faded them yesterday and
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: only went one to one in those two, which is
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: overall a loss. They're your wife's team, the Angels, they
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: become your team. Did you not have a team before that?
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, my wife is not gonna is not gonna
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: make me not be a Red Sox fan. And that's
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: just the way that it is. If I get married,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: even if she's a I mean, especially if she's a
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Yankee fan, if she's as a fan of some other team,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: I'll probably root for both teams sort of. But I'm
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: not gonna stop being a Red Sox fan. Man, I'm
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: from Boston. I mean, that's just the way that it is.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: It runs in your blood. Even though I stopped being
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a Patriot fan because fuck them, Fuck Belichick, fuck Brady,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean Red Sox. Yeah. I'm just not
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: gonna get off of that fandom train there. Man. And
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe if I find a wife, she won't be
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: into sports that she'll just root for who I root for?
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Cleveland. Detroit is looking for a sweet peer
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: as well, so they might maybe overlook Cleveland here, even
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: though it's a divisional matchup. Cleveland is just awful. They've
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: been terrible recently. Especially offensively. Detroit does have Tampa next.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Tampa playing pretty well, so maybe they'll consider that to
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: be a bigger series. Maybe they'll overlook Cleveland in this
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: one a little bit. Yesterday, I mean, this series has
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: been kind of crazy, dude. Detroit won two to one
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: and one to nothing some very low scoring games in
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: this series. Detroit used only two relievers. Yes, not really
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: their greatest relievers. So I think Detroit they have the
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen advantage coming into this game. They have the better
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: bullpen anyway, and the more rested bullpen here, but they
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: might not even need to use it because it is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: schooable day Schoolble is pitching for Detroit Zo. It looks
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: like it's fairly likely Detroit is gonna get the sweep here.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: With him on the mound two point one five ERA
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: point eight three whip, I mean, he's a heavy favorite
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: to win the cy Young. He's really good both home
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: and away, it doesn't even matter. He's pretty much dominating.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: In the month of June, Detroit won every single one
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: of his five starts thirty nine to seven, strike a walk,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: radio one point eight to nine ERA, win at least
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: six innings, and four of the five went seven or
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: more than three of the five. I mean he's you
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: know school, I mean, you know what you're gonna get
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: out of school. For the most part, he's dominant, although
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is familiar with him. He has decent numbers against
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Cleveland anyway, though in one hundred eight at bats, really
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: nice looking thirty one to four strike a walk ratio
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: held him with a two to fifty average six oh
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: one ops. So not complete domination, but still good numbers
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: for school against this pretty weak Cleveland offense. And he's
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: going up against Gavin Williams, who, even though he has
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: a three point eight six ERA, a one point four
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to six whip is not good, dude, so his ERA
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: should be higher than it is. He's been a little
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: bit better at home three point seven two ERA, but
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: I don't see how you can have a whip that's
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: that high and keep getting away with it. And he's
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: not really an extreme ground ball pitcher either, Like some
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: of these heavy walk guys, a lot of times they
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: get away with it by inducing a lot of ground balls,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: which Williams did do that in the month of June, though,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: where he had two point five to seven ERA and
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: awful though twenty to thirteen strike a walk ratio, but
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: he induced a lot of ground balls. But I just
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: don't think he's that good. He's not in good form.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's lost four of his last five starts. He's allowed
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: at least three runs in all but one of those starts.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: It's not like he's pitching exactly that well. He's not
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: going terribly deep into games. He's getting them through it.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's at least kind of keeping them in
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the ballgame. But I mean he's not very good. Obviously.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Schooble is the way better of the two. Williams does
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: surprisingly have good numbers against Detroit though, in fifty seven
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: at bats nineteen to five strike at walker ratio one
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: ninety three average five point thirty nine ohbs. The Williams
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: actually has some better matchup numbers than even school ball does.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: But I mean, there's no way that you could say
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: that Williams has the upper hander. I think Detroit has
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the upper hand with the starting pitching, with the bulp,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and with the offense. They have every single advantage here.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of price on Detroit here other
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: off minus too to end to minus two twenty here
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: cash they are public. It looks like some of the
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: money is actually back in Detroit as well. Do you
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: want to do that though, When they're on the verge
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: of a sweep and you're laying that much of a
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: price on the road, I would say you should not
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: do that. And Detroit has not been winning by margin
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: in this series, so it gets a little bit dicey
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: laying a price like that. Man, this could be another
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: under type of game here. Man, We're probably you're not
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: gonna get a whole lot out of Cleveland here. Seventy
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets on the under, only fifty nine
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. But it does
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: look like the money has come in on the under,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the seven and a half. It it's a very low total,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: So odds makers they're only gonna put a total up
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: like that if they think it's gonna be a low
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: scoring game. And I know, maybe there's some recency bias
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: in there because this has been a very low scoring series,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: but I mean, it looks like the oddsmakers are basically
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: telling you it should be a lower scoring game, So
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: maybe under could be worth a look. I don't know
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: if you trust Williams enough. Though, even those matchup numbers
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: are good against Detroit. So we will see Milwaukee at Miami.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: This one is an interesting pitching matchup. Man, we have
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: two bullpens that aren't very good though, so that's something
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind here. Of course, the bullpen let
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: us down with Milwaukee yesterday. A lot of bullpen usage
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: from the Marlins yesterday, very surprising. The Marlins didn't allow
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: any runs out of their bullpen yesterday. The bullpen pitch
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the majority of the game and had a clean sheet basically,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: which is not what you would expect against a Brewers
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: team that's a good hitting team on the road. So
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I don't understand that. But Miami is at the bullpen
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: disadvantage here. They are at a bullpen disadvantage. I should
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: say Milwaukee has a somewhat better bullpen even though it's
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: not good, and they're the more rested bullpen, so I
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee is a bullpen edge. Starting pitching very interesting.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Brandon Woodrooff is gonna be starting for the Brewers here, mean,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: unless they've changed something. I mean, you gotta make sure
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I go look at a pregame here because they're more
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: up to date with who the starting pitchers are gonna be,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: and Houston did change their starting pitcher by the way,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: which I'll get to and once I get to it.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Woodrooff though for Milwaukee, he's thirty two years old, he
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: has not pitched in the major since twenty twenty three,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: and he's coming off some major injury issues here right.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I believe that he must have had some sort of surgery.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Let me see, I don't see what the what it
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: is actually, but Woodroff is coming back. I guess he
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: had a setback a month ago. He is coming back now,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: though I don't know. Man, he's had a rough Rehabit
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: looks like, though, so what are we gonna get out
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: of Woodroffe? Very tough to figure out. His numbers over
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: his career are actually quite good. He pitched his entire
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: career with Milwaukee between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty three
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: and had a three point one ERA one point zero
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: five whip really nice amount of strikeouts one hundred something
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: more strikeouts than ANYS pitched four point five strike a
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is really good as well, not a lot
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: of walks, so his numbers all look quite good. High
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate, not a high walk rate. He's a very
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: talented major league pitcher man, very low whip, very impressive actually,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: so Woodrooff, if he is back in form, he should
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: be quite good because he's been consistent over his entire
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: career and people kind of forget who he even is.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: But he is good. So if he's able to come
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: back from injury, and that is the big question mark here,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: he should be good. But again that is the question,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: how is he going to be in his first game back?
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: And I know, again handicappers have differing opinions on this,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: but I think if you have a guy, even if
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: he's a veteran, if he's had like an injury that
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: he hasn't really had yet throughout his career and it
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: sidelined him for over an entire season, I don't think
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: that's good. Like if you have a guy who's just injured,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: you know, for a couple of months or something, and
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: he's a veteran, he's used to coming back from that.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: But Woodruff is not used to being away from baseball
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: for like an entire year man entire season. So it
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: does remain to be seen what we're gonna get out
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: of him. I didn't look at his minor league stats
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: in his rehab starts. Because I didn't, I decided I
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: wasn't gonna play this game. So that is something you
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: should look at and see how he was in the minors.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: If you do want to try to play this game,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: he might do okay, but he also might be on
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: a pitch count. Remember, so he's coming back from a
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: long injury. They might not want to try to injure
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: him again. They might try to limit his pitches quite
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: a bit. In a small sample size, he has been
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: good in his career against Miami. Eighteen at bats, six,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: one strike, a walk, ratio oh fifty six average, only
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: have one hit, which is a triple from Derek Hale,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: and a very low two seventy two oh ps. So
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Woodruff very good over his career, very good against Miami
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: as well. But again, the whole question is how long
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: is he gonna go in this game and what is
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: he gonna look like, and that is what you have
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to try to predict. He's going up against Edward Cabrera,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: who has been sneakily quite good for a while now
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: for the Marlins three point four to one, ERA one
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip is still a little bit high,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: but he has been good overall. He's been good both
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: home in a way a little bit better at home
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: pitching well. Recently had a nice seven inning, two hitch
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: shotout against Minnesota with six strikeouts, one of his best
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: starts of the season last time out, so I think
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: he is in good form. His biggest issue is his walks.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: He throws really hard, he gets a lot of strikeouts,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: but he walks too many guys and he wasn't going
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: that deep into some of these games. In the month
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: of June two point eight ninety Ray was quite good,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: but a twenty one to ten strang a walk ratio
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: was a high strikeout range a very high walk rate,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: so again, he's got to keep those walks down. He's
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: not a very hitable pitcher, though again he throws hard,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: he's tough to hit, so overall, I do like Cabrera
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: and I think he still has a really high ceiling
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: with how good is stuff is. His numbers against the
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Brewers are good as well. In twenty four at bats
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: six to one strike a walk raight jo one sixty
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: seven average allowing four to eight ops. So it all
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: depends on what you think you're gonna get out of
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Woodruff here, man, I think the under first five inning
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: is probably the way to look in this game. The
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: totals down from eight just to the over to eight
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent to take a sixty two percent ash
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: on the over. But if you think Woodruff is gonna
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: get you maybe four at least four or so innings
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: into this game, you don't have to worry about the
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: bullpens that much. And if he's back in form and
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: pitching the way that he has been able to throughout
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: his career him versus Cabrera, it does seem like an
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: under type of game at least early in the game.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: And don't worry about the bullpen. I mean, the bullpens
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: are definitely a concern if you want to try to
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: go under. So I would limit it to first five innings,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and that might be the best way to look at
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: that game. Yankees Matt Subway series. Here, Mets have taken
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the first two games. After the Mets are playing real bad.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: They've won four games in a row. Now Sengo looks
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: like he's coming back as well, so maybe the Mets,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: you know, are gonna be in a better mental state
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: because of that, because he's been such a good pitcher
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: for them. Being without Senga definitely has hurt them a
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: little bit, and with him on the horizon coming back,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Mets might be thinking, yeah, we can definitely do something
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: this year. Problem is the Yankees are probably gonna be
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: very focused here trying to avoid the sweep, and the
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Yankees have their ace on them mound here. Max Freed
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: two point one to three ERA, point nine to four
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. Obviously, he's been really good, a
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: little bit worse on the road two point three seven ERA,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: but still really good. Been slightly worse recently but still
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: quite good. Thirty four to five strike out walk ratio
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: in June one point nine to one ERA. And then
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: his most recent start was actually maybe his worst of
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the season. He gave up four runs at Toronto, and
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I mentioned his numbers against Toronto actually weren't particularly good,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: so I did mention you might not do that well
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: against Toronto. He only had two strikeouts in that game
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: and two walks, so even though he limited the damage,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: they lost the game. And that was his worst start
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: of the season. But Freed has been pitching so well.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of more of a blip for him.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I expect him to probably bounce back here. The only
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: issue is because Freed was on Atlanta for so long,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the Mets are very familiar with him because he was
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: in their division for so long. But he has been
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the Mets, even though they have a
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: ton of at bats against him, two hundred and one
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: at bats he sell him to two twenty nine average
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: over on that entire span and six twenty five ohps
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: sixty one to twenty one strike a walk ratio is
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: not that great of a ratio that has too many walks,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: but overall he's pretty much held the Mets offense and
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: check even though the Mets are good, so so I'm
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: gonna keep in mind there. Uh, Freed probably will do
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: well in this game though, and he's going up against
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: a bullpen game for the Mets, which I don't think
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: is gonna be great as the Mets have kind of
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: used a decent amount of their bullpend here and Devinsky
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: is listed as their starter. He actually was in the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: game yesterday and they're listening him as a starter today.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: A three point three eighty R a point nine for
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: a whip on the season. Sure, good numbers, but he
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: pitched a third of an inning yesterday, and he's gone
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: at most two winnings in any outing so far this year,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: and he's actually only been in what is his five games,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: so he's only pitched in five games this season. He
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed to run since his first appearance way back
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: in April, so he's been scoreless since then in basically
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: one inning appearances since then. It looks like he was
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: out for about a month twice, so I don't know
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: if he was in the minors and they brought it
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: back up. I don't know what the deal is here,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: but Davinski after he pitched yesterday, he only threw five pitches,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: so yeah, he should be good to go again here.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna let him just pitch the first inning here,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: so you're gonna get him for the first inning and
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: then you're gonna get the Mets bullpen coming in up
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: against Max Freed. Doesn't look great for the Mets to me.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Man Yankees have actually seen Devinski as well, so maybe
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: that one inning duwell either He won't dwell either in
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: that one inning twenty one at bats. They have a
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: four to twenty nine average against him. One thousand and
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: two thirty four ohps six to four strike a walk ratio.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: So I think you gotta say the Yankees have a
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: lot of advantages coming into this game here, maybe though
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: the Mets generally, I would say, have a better bullpen
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: and have an offense that can at least compete with
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. But Freed versus a Mets bullpen game just
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: looks like way too much of a lopsided game here
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees trying to avoid a sweet But the
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: Yankees are public and the line has moved way against them,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: dropping from minus two to fifteen to now minus one
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: seventy five. Probably the professional money just thinking well, you're
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: getting tax for the Yankees because they're the Yankees. So
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: you can't really lay a price like that on the road,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of ticket, sixty eight percent of the cash.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: I would stay away from it as well. I don't
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: think you can lay a price like that with the
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Yankees on the road. I think if you want to
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: do something with the Yankees, I would say maybe play
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: their team total over because they might get to Davinski
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: early and then you're gonna get a bullpen game for
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: the rest of the game, which might not work out
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: that well from the Mets, so maybe that's the way
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I would look at that game. Next up is gonna
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: be the other play that I have, and it's you
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: know me. This is a first five inning under Tampa Minnesota,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: and I'm keeping it first five just because the bullpens
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: have seen some usage in the series recently, so I
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: worry a little bit about the bullpens in Minnesota's bullpen
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: actually has been pretty bad as of late, so I'm
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: just gonna exclude the bullpens and just look at the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: starting pitching here, and I like how it shapes up here.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Man Minnesota is actually on the verge of a sweep
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: peer as well, and as I mentioned Tampa Bay, they
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: do have a fairly big series coming up next against Detroit,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: so it is possible that I don't know if Tampa
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: will overlook them though when when Tampa's also trying to
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: avoid a sweep though, so Tampa might show up focus
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: here as far as the side is concerned, but we're
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: not looking at the side here. We're looking at the
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, and I like both starting pitchers. Rasmussen
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Rays. He's been quite consistent this
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: year two point seven to eighty RA one whip. He's
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: basically the most consistent pitcher for the Rays. He's been
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road three point one
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: two ERA, which is still certainly not bad. He had
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: a bad start last time out against the A's. He
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: gave up four runs only went three innings. Might consider
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: that to be a little bit of a blip, though,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: because Tampa Bay had won seven of his previous eight starts.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: He had allowed four and runs and only one other
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: one of those starts, and he'd allowed zero in five
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: of those starts and two in the other two starts,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: so he was pitching quite well in most of those starts,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of them against bad offenses, though, but one
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: of them was a six inning, one hit shoutout against Minnesota.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: So the one thing you do have to worry about is, yes,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: this offense did just see Rasmussen. So a lot of
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: times when an offense just saw this guy, they tend
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: to do a little bit better next time out. But
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I just think Rasmussen is pretty consistently good, and I
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: just think he might match up well against the Minnesota offense.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: It's not very good. We don't need him to go
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: six innings to give up only one hit and no
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: runs this time. We just need him to be good
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: enough to get us under this total here and there
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: early going here. His numbers against Minnesota and his career
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. Fifty seven at bats, He's onto a
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: one ninety three average, five to seventy nine oh ps,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: good numbers, eleven to four strike out walk ratio not terrific.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, Rasmus is not really that much of a
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: strikeout guy, but again, he's limiting the damage. He looks
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: like he has a good matchup here, and he's up
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: against Joe Ryan, who's actually the better of these two pitchers.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Two point seven to five RA point eight to seven
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: whip been very good both home and away. It doesn't
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: even really matter for him. Joe Ryan, he's pitching well,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: even though his team has lost three of his last
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: four starts. It's not really his fault. The bullpen imploded
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: in one of the games and he got no run
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: support in the other games. He's been pitching well. I
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: had a three point four to ninety IRA in the
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: month of June, thirty two to eleven strike out walk racios.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: His walks We're kind of getting a little bit dicey
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: because he's not a guy that usually walks that many guys,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: but his walks have gotten back onto wraps. Last two outings,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: he hasn't walked anybody, and he's struck out twelve and
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: when at least six innings, and both starts only allowed
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: eight hits over fifteen innings in one run total against
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: Seattle in Miami. And I know Miami is not a
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: good offense. Seattle's okay, but Ryan looks like he is
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: coming back into form and he is usually good and
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: a pretty consistently good pitcher. He did pitch well against
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Tampa back on May twenty seventh, had a similar start
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to what Rasmussen's was. He went six innings, only allowing
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: one run five hits, so he had a good start
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: against Tampa. So again, yes, I know both offenses are
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be recently familiar with these pitchers, but these pictures
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: are not a mystery anyway, man. So it gets to
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: a point where it's like, ah, these are just veteran
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: pitchers that pitch pretty well, and they match up pretty
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: well against these particular opponents. And again, I don't think
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense is very good. Tampa's is okay, but Ryan
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: is a good enough pitcher to hold them down, and
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: in forty seven at bats against him, he's held him
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: to a two thirteen average, five eighty five ops fourteen
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio. So I like the
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: under early in this game, Man under first eight. This
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: is a more predictable one, even though it looks like
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: conflicting market read because the total drop from eight juice
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to the over to a straight eight. But now we
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: see sixty eight percent tickets in the under fifty three
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over on the full game,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: so I worry about that with a cash percentage. Disagree
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: with me, But the initial move was towards an under,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: so the move on a total itself. So that's what
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going with. And the money does look like it's
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: coming in a Minnesota to complete the sweep here for
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: won twenty five. I might have won twenty six seventy
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on them, but seventy four
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on Tampa. So the money seems to be
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: backing Joe Ryan and Minnesota in this one. Uh. That
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: seems a little bit diceing to me, even though I
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: would generally agree Joe Ryan is the better of those
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: two starting pitchers. Uh, but again, I think under is
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: the way to look there early in that game and
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: just discount the bullpens. White Sox are at the Rockies
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: in this battle of the worst. The Rockies have lost
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: both games too, which is kind of crazy. What are
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: we gonna get in this game? I have no idea, man,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a very hard to predict series.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: We did get not a whole lot of bullpen you
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: suggest today from either team, so the bullpends are actually
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: kind of intact, but both bullpends are bad. Shane Smith
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: this pitching for the White Sox, and he was having
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: a good season, but he seems to be starting to
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: wear out a little bit. Man, A lot of times
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: these rookies because they're not used to pitching long seasons.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: And I know we're only at the halfway point of
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: the season, but he looks like he's starting to wear
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: out because he's been a lot worse recently, or maybe
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: the league's starting to figure him out a little bit.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: But three point eight six e ra in the season
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: one point three to one whip not a great whip,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: and he was pitching really well again, like I said,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: until recently, not quite as good. Has a three point
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: six road he ra although he is having to pitch
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: up at Colorado now, so even though he's been good
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: on the road, generally it might not work out from
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: incurse Field. And again, his last three starts have been bad.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: He's allowed five or more runs in all three strike
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio has become worse in those recent starts.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: He has not been as good man, so he's faltering
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: as of late, and I think he's just kind of
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: running out of steam. Yes, Colorado has never seen him before,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: so usually a young pitcher will have an edge against
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: an offense, especially a bad offense in Colorado that's never
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: seen him before. But I don't know if we could
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: trust Smith, and I think we could say the same
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: thing about Dollander on the other side, who's been pretty
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: bad all season. Unfortunately in his rookie season six point
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: six y five eram one point five to one whip
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: not good. He's been really bad at home nine point
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: six two e rram, not being able to limit the
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: damage at all. Of course, Field and he hasn't been
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: pitching well as of late either, walking way too many
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: guys giving up a lot of runs. He's given up
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: multiple runs in every start going all the way back
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: to the beginning of May. He's given up at least
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: five and two of the last five at least three
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: and four of the last five. Not pitching particularly well
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: at all. And again the White Sox, they're a bad offense.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Who hasn't seen Dollander either, so it is possibly un
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: familiarity with these pictures can kind of help the pictures
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but I wouldn't really want to bank
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: on that the money is coming in on Colorado, as
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Smith has really started faltering here. White Sox down for
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: end of minus one oh six. Again I mentioned how
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: bad Colorado is. There like almost a home underdog here
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: against the second worst team in baseball. Basically, fifty three
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on the White Sox, sixty
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash coming into Colorado though, So
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the money is coming into Colorado, and I don't really
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: know if the White Sox are gonna have like a
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: or I don't know if it happened yesterday or today
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: because I don't know when the news came out. But
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: of course Bobby Jenks died even though he was in
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: his forties. Man, I think he had stomach cancer and
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: he was living in Portugal and he was a closer
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox when they won the World Series
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and five. He wasn't around for that long.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he was kind of too overweight
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: to kind of sustain his career. And I think he
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: was actually on the Red Sox very briefly at the
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: end of his career as well. He didn't have a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: long career, but he was mostly known as being a
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: closer for the White Sox for a bit. But unfortunately, Yeah,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: he died. So I don't know if that will kind
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: of motivate the White Sox a little bit to try
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: to play for him. But I don't necessarily know. But
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: the money doesn't go. It's coming in in Colorado and
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: this is not in Chicago, So we'll see what happens
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: in that game. Houston at the Dodgers. Houston is on
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: the verge of a sweepier over the Dodgers. Crazy man,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: But I mentioned yesterday the Dodgers. They had Otani as
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: the starter. He did fine, but a Dodgers' bullpen game
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: bringing in Robleski first guy out of the bullpen hoos today.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: I didn't think that was gonna be a good idea,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: and Houston was able to win from ber Valdez was
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: the way to look, which I mentioned yesterday. Houston was
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: able to get the job done. But in this game,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think Houston is the right side In this game,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: man La trying to avoid the sweet pier. I think
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to do it in this one.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Even though ESPN does have a Colton Gordon listed as
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: the starter, I think pregame is correct, and I think
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: it is gonna be Ryan Gusto in this game. But
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I would agree with the Dodgers regardless of whether it's
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Gordon or Gusto. But I think if it's Gusto, I
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: think the Dodgers are stronger play if it's Gusto. We
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: can bring up Gusto here because I think it is
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be him or Gusto. I don't know how he
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: pronounced his name, but I go for the Gusto though.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: But Gusto, I mean, yeah, he's a guy who's very
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to opposing offenses because he hasn't been in the
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: league for very long. But he hasn't been very effective
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: recently four point nine ERA, one point four to nine WHIP.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, you cannot put one and a half guys
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: on basin inning man better r on the road three
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: point eighty six. But he's been bad recently, giving up
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: at least four and runs and two straight outings. That's
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: not good. He's just not been very good overall in
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the month of June. Five appearances five point three three ERA,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: even though he had a good twenty nine to four
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: streke out walk ratio. So I look at that and think, oh,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: he was actually pitching pretty well, but he was getting
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: hit pretty hard. He allowed four home runs. He allowed
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: more than one hit per inning, So streke out walk
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: ratio can tell you he's he has good command, But
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: then it looks like he's just putting way too many
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: pitches over the player. His pitches are just too hitable man.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: So I don't like Gusto, even though the Dodgers haven't
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: seen him before. I think that he is the significantly
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: worst of the two pitchers he's going up against Emmett Shean,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: who I think is actually a legitimately good pitcher when
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: he has pitched this year very limited playing time so far,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: two point two five ERA point seventy five whip. Now,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: he had his rookie season last year with the Dodgers.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Four point nine to two ERA wasn't very good, but
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: a one point one to nine whip was certainly not bad.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: He just walked too many guys last year. His strikeout
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: rate was pretty good. Again, he was he was a
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: bit wild. I'll give him a little bit of a
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: pass because it was a rookie rookie year for him.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: He's been doing pretty well in the minors, and he
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: throws hard. Man. I know he doesn't have that many
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: pitches in his arsenal, but he throws like a really
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: he's mostly fastball change up, but his fastball is like
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: high nineties. Can probably reach one hundred on the gun
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: at some point. He is a hard throwing pitcher. Man
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: his ones start. He only has won start so far,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: and it was recently. It was mid June against San Diego.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: He went four innings, one run, six strikeouts, no walks,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: three hits. That was a pretty good start for she
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: and Man, and they were limiting his pitches. Sixty five
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: pitches actually pretty efficient over four innings as well, So
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know how limited he's going to be in
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: this game, but he's facing a not very good offense
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: necessarily in Houston. Even though Houston, I know, has put
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: up a lot of runs in this series, but I
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: think Houston is a step down actually from San Diego's offense.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Shean against Houston, they've actually seen him before, but they're
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: only one for eight off him. They have a one
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: twenty five average. Obviously you can do the math. Du
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Bond does have a home run off him seven to
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: twenty two ops overall, but I like Shean. I think
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: he is by far the more talented pitcher over Gusto,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: So I think LA is the way to look in
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: this game. They're rough for minus one eighty to minus
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: one ninety five. Money is agreeing with me on this.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of tickets, eighty three percent of the cash.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: This is close to play for me, because I was
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: trying to think of, well, I kind of want to
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: back Shean in this game. I don't know how you
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: want to do it, though, because the Dodgers' bullpen is
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get into this game somewhere around the middle
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: of the game, and I don't know how trustworthy the
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: Dodgers' bullpen is Houston does have the better bullpen, although
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: I think they might have used some of their higher
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: leverage relief pitchers yesterday. I would have to go back
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: and look. Although Houston probably does get the NOD bulpend wise,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: but Houston's bullpen might be in this game earlier than
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Las because Gusto is not very good. So I'm thinking
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: LA and I mean, maybe just play them run line
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: full game might be the right way to look at this.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: You could maybe also play either LA over their team
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: total or Houston under their team total. But some way
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: back in she and I think does kind of make
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: sense in this game because I think he does have
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: good stuff and he may do well in this game. JC.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: What's up man? Yeah, thanks for hanging out everybody. Yeah,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: so she and I told you there are a lot
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: of like young talented pictures man, which I like talking about. Man,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I'm like John Gruden here. So that's the way that
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I look at that game. Kansas City at Arizona. Arizona
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: was able to break their lost street with an easy
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: seven to one win yesterday. Ryan Nelson pitched well yet
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: again yesterday, and I mentioned I actually liked Arizona in
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the game yesterday and they were able to get the
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: win today. Maybe not so much. I mean, well, I
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: don't know man Arizona's bullpen. They're not a good bullpen.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, though, is gonna have Michael lorenz And start.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Even though Kansas City does have a good bullpen, I
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: don't think lorenz And is very trustworthy. Four point nine
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: to five ERA, one point three to seven whip, that's
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: not good. A five point six' eight road erara is
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: certainly not. Good he's been pretty bad on the, road
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: bad home road, splits and he hasn't been pitching well recently.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Either had a six point three to ONE era In
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: june twenty one to nine strike a walk race even
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: though he was getting backed by a lot of runs.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Support so his team has actually won four of his
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: last six, starts including one At seattle where he allowed
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: three runs and only four and two, thirds which is
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: also not very, impressive but his team got him some
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: runs even though The royals offense. Sucks he didn't have
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts no walks in that game at, least so
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: at the very least you can Say lorenzen he hasn't
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: walked anybody over his last two starts but he's allot
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: fourteen hits in whatever that, is ten whatever. Innings that's not.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Good ten and a third, INNINGS i think is what that.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: Is IF i can do the math. Right three home
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: runs in that, span seven runs in that. Span none
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: of that is. Good seven earned, RUNS i should, say
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: So lorenzen don't really want to back. Him he's not
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: in good, form but he does surprisingly have good numbers
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: against the D. Backs even Though lorenzo's bad on the,
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Road he's been bad. Recently this is a hitter friendly,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: park so it's like something's got to give here, man
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: AND i THINK i probably would lean towards him being
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: in bad form more so than him having good numbers Against.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: Arizona but it is in fifty three at, bats nine,
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: average five sixty six oh, bs so he does have
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: good numbers against a pretty good offense for the D.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Backs it looks Like Corman, CARROLL i guess has come
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: back from his. Injury he's a talented rookie For. Arizona
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be good for them to have him back
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: in the lineup because he was hurt for a. Bit
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: lorenzo has a seventeen to seven strike a, walk ratio Against,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: arizona which that number is not very. Good that is
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: not a good. Ratio but he is going up Against
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: anthony Di sclafani For arizona. HERE i, MEAN i like
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: these guys with Its allian, names BUT i don't know
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna do that. Well he's thirty five years.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Old he's got a four point eight TWO era this,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: year one point one eight whip this, year been a
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: little bit better at, home four point one FIVE era at.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Home his whip is pretty. Good but he's basically a
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher. Man he's only made four appearances all, season
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: even though his team has won the last three appearances
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: of HIS i don't know if we could trust him,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: man although he's gone five shutout innings across his last two,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: outings which is a decent. SIGN i guess he's pitching,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Okay but, again he's kind of an older. Dude what
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: are we gonna get out of this? Guy his career
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: numbers are, okay four point two to one, here one
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: point two to seven whip is a little bit. High
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: he has been a starter throughout a lot of his,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: career so he's not really just a converted. Reliever he's
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: been mostly a starter throughout his, career even though he
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: hasn't made a start yet For. Arizona he's new To
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: arizona this, year and before this year he had n't
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: pitched its twenty twenty three in the major SO i
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: don't know if he was dealing with injuries or, what but,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: yeah he's been out of baseball for a, bit so
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit. Concerning as. Well he almost missed
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: all of twenty twenty two as, well SO i don't
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna pitch deep into this, game, man even
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: though he has been a starter throughout his. CAREER i
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: think you're probably gonna get two three innings out of
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Days Sclaffoni, dscliffani and you're probably gonna Get arizona's bullpen come.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: In and that is not what you. Want you do
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: not Want arizona's, bullpend, Man they are a bad. Bullpen
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: SO i think over might make sense in this. Game
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: we're looking at seventy six percent of tickets and cash
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: on the over sitting at nine and a, half so
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: osmy are kind of telling you what that nine and
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: a half number they expected to kind of be higher.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: Scoring this is an afternoon game In, arizona so it's
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be hotter. Out it's a pretty hitter friendly. Park
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: based on all, That, YEAH i think an over might
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: be the way to look in this. Game money is
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: also coming in In, arizona maybe surprising up for twenty
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: five to one tickets seventy nine percent of the ash
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: coming in In. ARIZONA i Mean arizona obviously they're big
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: advantages that they have a way better offense Than Kansas city.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Does but even that being, SAID i, mean do you
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: really want to deal with An arizona bullpend game and
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: put money on? THEM i would say, No, Yeah lorenzo does. Suck, Zach,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: yeah hopefully for your, sake The, ROYALS uh help you out.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: There BUT i DON'T i don't, know, MAN i don't
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: know about that. One, Uh pittsburgh At. SEATTLE i went
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: under in this game, Yesterday and this looks like a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: very under type of. Matchup, man Between skeens And. Kirby
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: you got two quite good pitchers here in this, one
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: so this looks like it will be a pitching. Duel
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: but the odds makers are basically, like, yeah go ahead
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: and do, that as they put up a seven juice
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: to the under as the opening. Number now it's all
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: the way down to six and a. Half juice the,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: under and you know, ME i don't think you can
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: play a full game under six and a. Half, MAN
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: i just don't think you can do. It seven is
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: a very key number in baseball because it breaks the
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: three to three. Tigh SO i would just avoid. That
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: even if you do think it's gonna be a nice pitching,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: duel if you go under first five, inages you're still
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking at going like under three probably in
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: the first five, inches which is very dicey as. Well
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: and WHEN i show you the pitching matchup, stats you'll see.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Why even THOUGH i like both pitchers and they should
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: probably do well, here their matchup numbers against these opposing
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: lineups are actually not. Good we have sixty two percent
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: and ticket sixty seven percent of the cash on the
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: under and this, one so the money is also coming
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: in on the. Under, yesterday of, course was a very under.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Game that was the GAME i think to play the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: under in the. SERIES i went with. IT i gave
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: it out as a. Play mariners use some of their
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: best relievers. Yesterday their bullpen's fairly good in, general even
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: though they did use two of their best relievers. Yesterday
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: pittsburgh's bullpen only gave up one run, yesterday which was
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: the only run in the. Game pittsburgh's bullpend not very,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: good but they were good enough to get us to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: the under, yesterday of, course BUT i don't think we
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: could Trust pittsburgh's bullpen And Paul skean's. MAN i, mean
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: he's he's still got to get used to pitching long
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: major league, seasons, man as we saw him wear out
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit last year in his rookie, season even
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: though of course he's a very good, pitcher but he's
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: starting to go a little bit less deep into games
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: recently here as. WELL i think The All star break
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna help schemes. Man but, overall obviously he's been
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: really good two point zero three E ra point nine
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: two whip even better on the road one point seven
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: to NINETY r and of course we have a very
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: picture friendly park In seattle. Here but over his last four,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: starts he's only gone beyond five innings, once which is
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a. Concern did shut Out Saint
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: louis last time out for five, innings five, strikeouts one,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: walk so he's still pitching. Well, OBVIOUSLY i mean. Schens
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: you're not gonna get a whole lot of not pitching
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: well from. Schemes but, AGAIN i think he is maybe
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: kind of wearing out a little, bit and his pitch
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: count hasn't been as high over some of those last
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: some of those recent starts and against The. Mariners he
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: actually doesn't have great numbers in his career twenty one at.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Bats it's a limited, sample but two eighty six, average
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: eight seventy six obs not that great eight to three
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: strike out walk. Ratio it's difficult to decide what you
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: want to do with schemes, here, Man so we gotta
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: figure that. Out atlanta And. Baltimore, MAN i gotta finish
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: this video here SO i can give out My atlanta
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: play on the show on the On? Instagram? Man SHOULD
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: i do it right? Now? While let me do it right? Now,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: actually While i'm alive, Here i'm Gonna i'm gonna post
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: it To instagram right? Now how about? That SHOULD i do?
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: It SOMETIMES i have to do multiple. Takes let's just
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: do it. Here what DO i even want to? Say,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: WELL i give it out On instagram, Here let's. See
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: i'm Gonna i'm gonna make a quick. Here i'm gonna
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Go Atlanta braves here. Today split bet half on the run,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: line half on the money. Line. HERE i just Think
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: Grant holmes has a big upper edge in this pitching,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: matchup or upper hand of this pitching, matchup Over Ty,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: rogers WHO i still don't Trust. ROGERS i, mean he
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: wasn't doing that well on The. Miners Grant holmes has
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: never been seen before by The, orioles And rogers was
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: pitching in THE Nl east for basically his entire, career
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: so The braves are very familiar with. Him SO i
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Think holmes does have the upper. HAND i think The
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: braves are gonna be a little bit extra motivated because
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: they're trying to avoid the sweep. Here SO i think
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: It's braves. Man both bullpen's got really burned out yesterday
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: and The orioles bullpen is, worse SO i think we
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: can go full game on. THIS i think The braves
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: probably also have the better, hitting especially With profar. BACK
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: i assume he's. Back he did come back from The
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: peds so and hopefully he's still on. Them for our sake,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Here braves are going to be the play in this early.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Game it's starting at ten minutes. Though all, RIGHT i
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: don't know how good that video. Was one, take, baby single.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: Take i'm Gonna i'll blow that To instagram right, now
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: baby follow better off dead On. Instagram, man we're gonna
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: go with that. One let's let's do it. Here i'm
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: gonna post this and let me. See, NO i don't
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: want to create a. Sticker, man just post this, thing all,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: right let me. See i'm not even gonna put a
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: description on it. Yet i'm just gonna post it. There it.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: Is all, Right let's keep going with. This gotta give
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: the fans what they want in a timely. Fashion, man
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: with ten minutes to go before the game. Starts all, right,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah So Pittsburgh. SEATTLE i was in the middle of
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: this talking about this game. Here George kirby is pitching
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: For seattle, here and he's starting to pitch well. AGAIN i,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: know his four point eighty five yr doesn't look. Good
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: one point one seven whip obviously is pretty. Good he's
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: been basically the same home and, road but he is
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: definitely starting to pitch way better. AGAIN i, Mean, kirby
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: he was trying to come back from, injury he had
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: a delayed start to the, season and he's been really
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: good recently And seattle's won four of his last six.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Starts he had a thirty three to six strike a
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: walk ratio over that span in the month Of june
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: three point one eighty Ra he only allowed more than
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: tour in runs once in any of those, starts so
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: he is definitely in good form. Again pitching, Well he's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: up against a Bad pirates. Offense, however in forty at,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: bets The pirates actually have good numbers against. Him three
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: different batters have home runs against. Him he's allowed a
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: three twenty five average oneenty twenty two ops six to
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk, ratio so both pitchers actually have
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: bad matchup numbers against these, lineups which is kind of.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: Crazy SO i think you're really taking a risk if
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: you want to take a shot with the under in this,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: game even THOUGH i kind of do think both pitchers
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: should do okay, here BUT i think the lean is
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: probably To seattle if you want to play this. GAME
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: i Think seattle on the money line actually might be
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: the way to look because they do have the better,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: bullpen AND i think as long As kirby Can attle,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: schemes WHICH i think he does have the ability to. Do,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: here you get all the rest of the advantages on
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: The seattle. Side, Man their bullpen is, Better they're hitting is.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Better SO i think that's the way to Lean seattle's
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: flip from plus one oh nine to minus one Seventeen
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: oddsmaker's brought Out schens is a. Favorite so, again it's
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: like you're always paying attacks with. Skeens. MAN i Think
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: kirbby with his for whatever era is actually being underpriced
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: in the. Market And pittsburgh is public because the public
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: they see schemes and they want to jump on. It.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Man seventy one percent of, tickets only fifty nine percent
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: of the cash, Though SO i think if you Take,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: seattle you're actually taking an anti public home favorite that's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: actually the better team and at a pretty reasonable. Price
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: So i'm almost talking myself into a play On. Seattle
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: i'm not gonna quite do, it BUT i lean To
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: seattle in that. One Saint louis at The. Cubs guess, what,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Man Saint. Louis two things happened. Yesterday Saint louis finally
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: scored some, runs SO i guess they'd scored runs in
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: the previous game. Two But Saint louis finally won a
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: game And Drew palmers finally gave up. Runs he hadn't
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: given up any runs this, season ALTHOUGH i know it
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: was only like twenty one something innings or, whatever twenty three,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: innings but still very. Impressive The pomerans hadn't given up any,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: runs but you knew that had to regress a little.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: Bit pomeran's got the opener yesterday and he did not do.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: Well so, YEAH i mean that was kind of. Expected
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: Saint louis finally got the win. Yesterday AS i told you,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: YESTERDAY i kind of Liked libratore versus like A cub's bullpend.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: GAME i Thought libratore had the edge in that. Matchup
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: we saw a lot of bullpen usage on both sides, here,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: MAN a lot of guys came out of the bullpen
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: for The. Cubs all of The cardinals' best relievers came
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen. Yesterday so that's worrisome for both teams. Today, really,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Man so do, YOU i, mean do you back The
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: cubs here even though their bullpen's very. OVERWORKED i don't
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: Know Eric fetti is pitching here not good numbers on
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: the season at all for The cardinals four point five
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: to SIX, era one point four to TWO. Whip he
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: has a better road though at three point eighty. Six
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: he's been bad. Recently he's given up seven or in
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: runs and two straight, starts one against this Very cubs.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: Team he does not have good numbers against The, cubs
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: and then Against. PITTSBURGH i, mean that is just egregious
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: if you give up that many runs Against. Pittsburgh he
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: didn't even strike anybody out in that. Game it was
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: on the, road where he's been better on the, Road
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: so he is in terrible for him right. Now and
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: he gave up four home runs in those two games,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: Too so doesn't look good For Eric. Fetti And chicago
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: just saw him and they have good numbers against him.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Anyway in ninety six at, bats he has a pretty
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: good twenty to four strike a walk, ratio but they
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: have five home runs off, him five different, hitters three
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: twelve batting average eight to seventy one. Ohps SO i
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: don't Think fedti is gonna do well in this, game.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: Man and he's up Against Matthew, boyd WHO i think
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: is the much more preferable of the two. Starters AND
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: i actually gave out a play last TIME I boyd
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: pitched Against Saint. LOUIS i gave out The cubs in that,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: game AND i think it might have Been boyed Against.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Feedti wasn't, it let me, SAY i think it was
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: the same pitching, match, right it, was and it Was
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: fetti at home where he's worst. Doing feedti Got. Rocks
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: so that was an easy win THAT i gave out
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: on the Show man in that. PLAY i Liked. Boyd
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: boyd has been pitching quite well two point six y
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: five yarra one point oh wait. Whip he's been good
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: on the. Season he's been really good recently, too one
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: point seven eighty r In, june eighteen to Six strigle walk,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: ratio and then he came through with a seven, inning
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: two run performance Against. CLEVELAND i Know cleveland is a bad,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: offense but five to One strigle walk. Ratio boyd just
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: continuing to be in good, form pitching really, well basically
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: good both home and, away it doesn't even. Matter and
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: he's pretty much Dominated Saint louis forty three at bats
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: against him ten to two striggle walk radio one sixteen,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: average three eighteen. Ops So boyd has been, Good, YES
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: i know Though Saint louis did just see him, Recently
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: SO i Like boyd in this matchup, Though SO i
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: lean to The cubs in this game. STILL i, MEAN
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: i just Think boyd definitely has the upper hand Over,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: fetti just like he did last. Time they're down for
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: minus two, hundred minus, one ninety, five eighty percent of,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety seven percent of the cash coming in on The,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs so the money does look like it's coming in
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: on The. Cubs you could play a run line on
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: The cubs might be the way to look in this,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: game maybe BECAUSE i think you have the upper hand
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: there with that pitching, Matchup so maybe that's the way
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: to go in this. Game i'm staying away from, it
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: but that might be the way to. Go even though
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: they are a. PUBLIC i think the money is joining
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: the public on that. One and it's a low total
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: flipping from seven and a half juice to the over
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half juice to the, under sixty
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets on the, over fifty four percent
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the. Unders the money is coming
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: in on the under and with the oddsmakers putting up
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: a low total like this At Wrigley. Field they're basically
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: telling you the wind is blowing in Off Lake. Michigan
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: so that's why the total is like. That BUT i
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: would be very hesitant to do that BECAUSE i think
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: both bullpens are in bad. SHAPE i Think FEddi is
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get lit up again, Here SO i don't
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: think the under makes a whole lot of sense in that,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: game even THOUGH i THINK boyd might be a good
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: uh way to go, here and that's gonna be an
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: Esp we have AN espn. Doubleheader, actually we have that
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: game and then THE Espn Sunday night game after, that
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: which is usually usually you just get THE Espn Sunday night,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: game but they're giving you a double header this. Time
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: the night game Is Texas San. Diego teams have split
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: these two games so far in the. Series Of texas winning,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: yesterday let's see the bullpen you suggest. Today texas used
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of their relief pitchers, yesterday man So texas
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is in a little bit worse. Shape both
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: teams generally have good bullpens this, year But San diego
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit better shape coming into
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: this game probably For San diego is we don't know
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: who their starting pitcher is gonna. Be it's, undecided and
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: the lines dropped from minus one twenty seven to minus one.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: Seventeen so you're getting maybe a call, up maybe a
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: bullpen game For San, diego which probably doesn't look good
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: going up Against Jack, lighter who is actually starting to
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: pitch pretty well For texas here four point two to NINETY,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: ra one point three. WHIP i know those numbers don't look.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: Good he's been a little bit worse on the road
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: four point five to five THE. Ra but this is
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: a picture. Friend and even Though texas has lost five
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: straight starts of his lost seven of his last, EIGHT i,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: mean This texas offense has not helped him. Out. Really
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: their offense is. Terrible, yeah he had a little bit
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: of a. Hiccup he had a few bad starts in
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: there in the month Of june five point four to
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: seventy r In june twenty two and nine strike a walk.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: Ratio but his last outing six, innings one, run allowed seven,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: strikeouts no walks Against. Seattle so that's maybe an indicator
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: that he is returning to form. HERE i, mean it
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: could just be one good start though AGAINST i mean
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: it was against a mediocre offense, though SO i don't,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: know so it's. Impressive, nonetheless he had a good start,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: there so Maybe lighter is returning to form a little bit.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: Here Only sheets has ever faced him, before So San
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: diego is very unfamiliar with. Him he's won for two
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: with a single and a, strikeout But San diego effectively
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: has never even Faced lighter, before So lighter might have
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an extra edge there with the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: fact That San diego's bats have never seen him, before
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: and Getting texas is at a bit of an underdog
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: price with at least a guy who you kind of
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: know what you're gonna get out of, him maybe is
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: the way to. Look but if you do, THAT i
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: would probably limit it to first five innings BECAUSE i
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: think once it shifts to the Bullpenz texas bullpen is
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: overworked right, now SO i probably Lean texas maybe in
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: the first five, innings but we don't even know who's
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: starting For San. Diego and then to finish it, off
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: The battle of The Bay San francisco and The. A'S
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: i gave Out San francisco to bounce back yesterday and
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: it happened after The a's blew them out In game.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: One San francisco got the easy win, yesterday WHICH i
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: thought was a play that had to be made. YESTERDAY
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: i would lean towards this zig zagging back to The a's, here,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: though Because Hayden Bird's song is gonna be pitching For San,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: francisco and even THOUGH i Know San francisco does have
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: the better, bullpend, though you might want to limit this
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: to first five innings because The a's bullpen really is
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: something you don't want to have your money on more
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: often than. Not so maybe limit this to first five
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: innings on The a's, here BECAUSE i think the starting
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup very much favors The. A's Hayden Bird's song
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: is pitching for The giants four point THREE era one
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: point four whip that's not very, good and he's been
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: in bad form, recently going fewer than five four and
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: one third innings or fewer in his last three. Starts
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: San francisco's lost his last four. Starts he's allowed at
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: least three runs in all four of, them not pitching
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: well at, all walking too many guys as. WELL i,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: mean these numbers are just bad, overall a couple of
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: those starts against bad, offenses a couple of them against better.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: Offenses he's been good against The a's in a very
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: limited eleven at bat sample size four, strikeouts one, walk
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: ohn ninety one, average two forty five. Ohps BUT i
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: still think Bird song he's just struggling so much, recently
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: and this ballpark is a very tough ballpark to pitching as,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: well which he's used to have pitcher friendly ballpark At
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: San francisco and having to go pitch at This sacramento
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: stadium probably not a good thing for Bird. Song his
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: home road splits are pretty, insignificant but he's just in
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: bad form right. NOW i much Prefer Jacob, lopez SO
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: i think has the way higher. CEILING i, Mean i'm
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: becoming A lopez. Believer three point eight EIGHT, era one
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: point three four whip isn't. Good he's had some weird,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: start so he's just put too many guys on base and.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: Whatever but he's actually been really good in this ballpark.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Somehow two point seven FOUR, era he doesn't allow that
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: many home, runs so that kind of helps as. Well
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: even though he's a fly ball. PITCHER i guess he
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: induces like a lot of pop ups because somehow the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: fly balls for him are not sailing out of this,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: ballpark even though it is a home run friendly. Ballpark
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: two point seven FOUR. Era at home in this, park
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: he's been. Good he's a, lefty which can kind of
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: fool hitters that haven't seen him. Before The a's have
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: won five straight starts Behind lopez after they lost his first.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: Six he's really started becoming quite good. Man two point
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: six FOUR, era thirty nine to nine strike a walk
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: ratio in six starts In. June he had one bad
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: start last time out At, tampa which is kind of
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: similar to this park and that it's a very hitter
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: friendly park as. Well he had a bad start in that,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: one only went three and a, third gave up three
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: or runs only one. Strikeout maybe that that's a little
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: bit of a, blip, though because he was so good
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: and most of the starts prior to, that giving up
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: zero runs in three of the four starts prior to,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: that in one run in one of the others against
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: some bad offenses and some somewhat better. OFFENSES i Think
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: lopez might actually be trustworthy and he actually has pretty
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: good strikeout. Stuff so he's able to strike out guys
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: at the major league. Level, Here he's facing a Weak
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: San francisco offense, here and they only have four at
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: bats against some only three of their Hitters i've ever
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: seen it. Before adamis does have a home run off.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Him that's the only hit that they have off. In one,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: strikeout no, walks two fifty average one two fifty oh.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: Ps SO i Think lopez is the way to, look
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: AND i would limit it again to first five innings
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: here BECAUSE i don't think you want anything to do
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: with this Awful a's. Bullpen the numbers down for my
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: is one to nineteen and mins one. Thirteen you do
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: get a cheap price on The a's here because The
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: a's aren't. Good fifty percent, tickets sixty four percent of
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on The. A'S i think you
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: do get the better starting pitcher and the better offense
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: here with The. A's so first five, inning the money
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in on The a's as far
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: as the ash, percentage that's the WAY i would lean
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: would be to The a's in that. ONE i like
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of these leans, today, man But i'm limiting
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: my plays to just The, braves which is about to
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: start right, now half on the run, line half on
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: the money line there and then under in the first
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: five innings In rays And, twins the only Games i'm
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: actually recommending plays on that's gonna do. It learn To
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: town On. Twitter thanks everybody for hanging. Out Happy sunday.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: Everybody and, YEAH i mean you can check out my other.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: Stuff Better Off dead is on all the audio platforms
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: On instagram as. Well if you listen to the, audio
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: it helps me OUTCAUSE i actually have it, monetized so
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: please do. That please, review give me, ratings, obviously subscribe
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: watch on YouTube as, well you, know interact common help
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: me out and we can get YouTube modetized as. Well
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: maybe if we keep this thing, going hopefully the picks
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: continue to be good as. Well AND i also have
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: covered In, yuke which is my yuke channel that's out,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: there that's on. YouTube Everything i'm putting up On twitter
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: for My yuke, Covers i'm starting to just double post
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: them And i'm posting them all to, YouTube AND i
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: am gonna be running A patreon pretty. SOONER i Think
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: i'm gonna give you Extra yuke content at Different patreon
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: Levels i'm gonna give you A spotify feed with the
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: audio of all the yuke Stuff i'm putting, out And
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: i'm probably gonna slow drip stuff That i've already, posted
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: BECAUSE i have so much Stuff i've already posted On
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: twitter That i'd never posted on, YouTube SO i might
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: just post those two YouTube and slow drip them out
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: on YouTube as. Well that's a plan as. WELL i
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: gotta get it going, though, man and maybe hopefully we
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: can make some money out of This patreon, thing, man
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: hopefully people want, that and then at a higher, LEVEL
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: i might let people REQUEST i Know i've been doing
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: requests for, free BUT i might stop doing that and
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: just prioritize requests From patreon, people and hopefully the requests
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: are things THAT i can actually, do because there are
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: certain SONGS i won't really be able to, do But
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: i'll at least, try and maybe i'll give, you like
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: a different one from the same artists or. Something, jacob
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: what's up, man that's right The Reds. MAN i Give
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: the Reds is a play two days, AGO i, think,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: right and that was a. Winner what's up? Man thanks
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: for hanging. Out you getting right under the gun, man
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: Because i'm about to get out of. Here the games
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: are starting right. Now came out of play on the braves.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: Here hopefully people saw My instagram post BECAUSE i only
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: gave it out with ten minutes. Warning that's gonna do.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: It peace, out, EVERYBODY a Happy, sunday, everyone