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Construcción Plural - Programa 1164 · Construcción Plural - Radio Trend Topic

• 0:01
  Plural construction, the renowned journalistic program of political analysis and current in its twentieth
• 0:08
  season, with the leadership of Fernando Mauri and a team of prestigious analysts listen
• 0:15
  to it on radio train topic to be good afternoon. We command here on
• 0:26
  the street doing the construction opening, but stick in view of that for labor
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  issues, well we can' t be alive. We' re going to
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  find a little bit of political analyst Carlos Fara, relates the selections in the
• 0:38
  United States and our columnist in economists Alejandro Roffmann, Julio Gambina complicated the internal
• 0:46
  of the provide Bulrige Marces mat Greymante des or deletes me Macrey doesn' t
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  like me at all, like most of the political diligence, but the Burris
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  already ran out of the pathetic, the ambitious. He has a vocation of
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  power if this Nazi, but of course it is Figuresti all sign up sormal
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  Devil has gone through twenty- three different political formations, and so it is
• 1:07
  yesterday. Pablo Román with us. It criticized and shared and I do not
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  believe that this was the case in Parliament. The possibility that children under the
• 1:14
  age of thirteen may vote in the era of fleetingness, portability, cellulars,
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  portable life, all in one hand, in the hand of liquid times,
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  as Bauman, the already deceased sociologist, said. Well, vote on the
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  thirteen- year- old three plie. He looks like he' s looking
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  for votes in tik tok to the segment where he' s stronger. Milley
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  not sixteen to thirty a delusion and will not pass alone or through the passage,
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  many definitions of Agustín Montedora and super grateful economic matter. More Agustín,
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  we spent forty minutes, nothing less talking with him yesterday of all, speaking
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  of operations against the Government, of that stabilization of some of his colleagues with
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  sticks for his colleagues, including the potorno himself that integrates said presumably the Council
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  of Advisors of President Millay and expressed some criticism of the government closed in rows
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  with Millay and still running it on the right more orthodoxy. Agustín Monteverde speaking
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  of the impossibility of leaving the stocks that if it is devalued once, that
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  is certain, That carries an evaluation later, even if it is the fifteen
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  twenty later, it takes twenty or thirty. Well, the look of Agustín
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  Monteverde. Here with us there are fellow economists and colleagues of yours Fernando told
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  us to oppose, some with imprudence or freedom and others with abious interests,
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  seeking to try a bulation and do a business. That' s what Agustí
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  Monte Verde said yesterday, Streets with us the second day of financial calm,
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  when we are recording this a couple of hours from the beginning of plural construction
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  Blue dollars under the thousand four hundred. Let us remember that the wort,
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  on Tuesday, had touched one thousand four thirty, yesterday one thousand four hundred
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  and five. At this moment, two hours from the floor of the program,
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  we are recording this, which is under Mexico' s hundreds six thousand
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  three ninety corn risk is maintained a thousand grand records in these twenty- three.
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  Well, not even the scandal is in pro in the notisa of the
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  day with matrix trying to regain a little bit of independence. Like you always
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  know where you' re going. Milay milake Obs is doing well virtually absorbs
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  it in terms of voter base and it goes wrong. The pro falls on
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  the flips. It' s very complicated. One of the news of the
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  day has to do with an act in educational matters that is laudable in that
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  sense, which was their government. It' s going to be the ER,
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  go the structural issues. Then we will be able to do it if
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  the contents of the reform are aimed more at primary and especially goes to secondary
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  rather than university. And that' s right. We have to start there,
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  well, an act of the President of San Juan, where they had
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  an armed man. This does not mean that I want to tempt we will
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  see, but it is material before armed with better to shoot in the act
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  in San Juan Sessiona in the Senate says jol that the mining did not get,
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  that it is discussed use in the Jugulatoria probality, which is a beating.
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  Millay' s gonna have it against him and well, for an hour
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  he' s picking them up and picking them up. Cool less talking about
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  a scattered position, some perionism that doesn' t find its axis either,
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  which we don' t understand why it lost. And with the contunity of
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  the fight between the maximum Chrisne and axel Kislogs more than twenty days and the
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  wolf driving, now you see the governor on the weekend with this subject that
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  I ate myself although I did not tell to the air this topic of the
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  accident, for not following the police, for not following the subject I thought
• 4:32
  that, effectively able this theory to be true. Well, it says so
• 4:35
  here, but this must be so much about people. Unfortunately, it was
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  an accident. Well what did the operative that made holographisca very well today clarín
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  in so editorial page two. I think it' s the Julia Gambini,
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  which is the operation the governor did trying to find a success and which,
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  I know, was pretty pathetic and we still don' t know anything about
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  twenty- five years, more than twenty years after her disappearance. Okay,
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  well, here we go then let' s go for a break. After
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  that we come back and that' s where I' ll lend you to
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  introduce Fara Ganvine Roffman to our three audio testimonials from this week' s closing.
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  On Tuesday we' ll rest the olive radio, so we' ll
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  be back soon on Wednesday, after Wednesday' s holiday, we' ll
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  be back here on the air. Now the pause for gratitude always to the
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  people there will be seen to accompany us and chaulamos. We remind you that
• 5:32
  you can find us on social networks, on our website where we extend our
• 5:38
  journalistic work. We find ourselves on Twitter under Nick Arroba, approaches on Instagram
• 5:42
  fer M two thousand twenty- two. Ferm de Fermaury two thousand twenty-
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  two and, as always where we upload audios from the program analysis of specialist
• 5:51
  columnists. Our website links approaches, blogs. You' re a beef fan.
• 6:01
  Enter Argentine meat, organize and find the best tips, tricks and recipes
• 6:08
  to prepare the best meat in the world and enjoy it with family and friends
• 6:14
  in the second plural building block. As I point out to our name of
• 6:19
  many looks in the economy, in this case Oculio Dombina more donamina to the
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  left make it orthodox and take to the government of Agustín Monteverde now that of
• 6:30
  a minutitos of Alexander Roffman, Heterodors closer to the grinnerism. First political analysis
• 6:34
  by Carlos Fana, but always analyzing the role of diversity, as our name
• 6:39
  says. In this 20th season we went through, after our experiences in radio
• 6:44
  culture and now in the conversion of guitar to radio train play Carlos fara I
• 6:49
  talking about elections in the United States. There' s time to change Biden.
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  You can do a good campaign. I res put the other answer going
• 6:57
  in networks and you can also go three times this in November, more than
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  four months for the start of the poets in the so fara Gambini and Rosman
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  to close on Tuesday we do not see ourselves on holiday on the radio of
• 7:12
  rest live, so we meet on Wednesday at sixteen and on the other Wednesday,
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  this will be seventeen. We' ll do two hours in a row
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  to get it back next Tuesday. But well, the Martis tines and happy
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  independence program for everyone go to the homeland and on Wednesday and at four hours
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  late we find him. Thanks to Juan, as always you can' t
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  make me so happy much more and thanks to Sirvias working for preproduction. We
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  hear Fana, Gambine Roffman and we leave by vay Ioane Weekend for the two
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  of us Hello. It' s good. The second stage of economic policy
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  began, as the Minister of Economy told us in a press conference to the
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  President of the Central Bank, and there we learned that there was a second
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  stage and that there is a third stage. The first stage had to do
• 8:01
  with the fiscal deficit full and flat adjustment. The last act of fiscal adjustment
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  is more than 2, 000 layoffs over the end of weeks or the change
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  of month. According to the State Workers' Association, it is a medium
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  - and long- term perspective of continuity. The adjustment is a central rule
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  of the economic police and the second stage is now beginning, which has to
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  do with not issuing the interest paid by the Central Bank for the Central Bank
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  ' s debt to the banks. Banks receive deposits from individuals and banks redirect
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  these resources into one- day liabilities at the Central Bank. Well, the
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  Central Bank pays those interest by issuing. It says well, we' re
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  not going to issue any more, or we' re going to pass this
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  debt on to the Treasury and the Ministry of Economy. And it is the
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  Ministry of Economy that has to pay these interests and the Minister of Economy answers
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  at the press conference that good. What we are going to do to resolve
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  this issue is to deepen what we were doing in the first stage, that
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  is, if now the Treasury or the Ministry of Economy has to pay those
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  interests, well, it will have to subtract expenses from other sides. And
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  just as in this first stage he made a fiscal adjustment reduced public spending,
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  he stepped on spending, although he kicked the ball forward with good spending.
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  Now he' s going to go deeper into the line of adjustment. A
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  first- minute meeting with the presidents of the banks is called to discuss the
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  terms of the transfer of this debt from the Central Bank to the Treasury.
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  And what we see is more adjustment and increase of debt with the conditionalities of
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  debt, whether debt starts or is debt in dollars, and a third stage
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  is announced that is linked to the elimination of exchange restrictions, what is called
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  the stocks and with that growth policies. The reality is that this third stage
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  will begin when the Government sees that there is an impact of what has just
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  been passed in Congress, the basic law that, on the one hand,
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  gives the President extraordinary powers to continue to function by decree and new decrees will
• 10:37
  appear. It gives it the opportunity to privatize and even those companies that did
• 10:43
  not enter into privatization will be able to present new draft legislation from, among
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  quotation marks political success obtained by the Government with the approval of the Basic Law,
• 10:58
  a letter showing to external creditors, especially to the fundamental international, and
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  that it has received greetings and applause because it has shown that, with little
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  legislative weight, it has had the capacity to resolve essential instruments to govern,
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  and the Government is preparing to continue with this political dynamic, build its own
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  political strength and try in the half- shift elections, achieve improvements in the
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  correlation of forces in Parliament and be able to deepen a continuity of this line
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  of adjustment and restructuring. And the third stage of growth will come if the
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  suggested investments come in the incentive regime for large investments, for which regulation is
• 11:54
  needed, the provinces need to open up to the regime and, therefore,
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  many investments that are predisposed to exploit the common goods of Argentina. If lithium,
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  copper, non- conventional hydrocarbons or even the primary production cycle is an
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  exporter linked to agricultural crops, they will be linked to these decisions of the
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  incentive scheme to large investments. And if the provinces adhere or do not adhere,
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  it will be the destination of those investments and, therefore, the pressure
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  on the large producers and exporters for return at the immediate juncture is slowed down.
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  And this is a push- button where the Government is trying to demonstrate
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  in the country and the world, especially to creditors, that it has the
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  ability to define the good course. So far, reality is giving it results.
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  It achieved the electoral consensus. First, it is now showing a capacity
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  to discipline the parliamentary political bureaucracy, regularly trying to condition the communicational journalistic bureaucracy
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  in large media and maintaining levels of consensus in society. With expectation of this
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  change. Perhaps that is the point of changing the political balance in contemporary Argentina.
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  That is why we say this is a push, a push among the
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  big economic operators that he twisted the arm of the different governments in recent years,
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  and a government that wants to become strong and set the course for the
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  economy. Let' s say we' ll have to see if this is
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  resolved in the middle- term ortho nl. That' s the big question.
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  But this is a trick between the government and real power, where real
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  power puts pressure on devaluation and the government insists it reaches. With the adjustment
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  and restructuring that these newly adopted legal instruments induce and with the special powers and
• 14:18
  new laws, it will try to deepen the line of backward restructuring of the
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  economy, of the politics of the Argentine society until the next Hello. How
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  you' re worth speaking Alejandro Rofan in his weekly column. We are already
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  in the moment of recording sight, passing almost half the week and the economic
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  situation is of great uncertainty. No one can deny it, even if they
• 14:50
  share the policy of the Government. From different angles, economists are linked to
• 14:56
  forgiveness to official politics and who even advises on the government show him their annoyance
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  at the steps the Ministry of Economy has taken on Friday to try to save
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  a situation that was going to lead us all to face unsettlingly. The serious
• 15:22
  problem of Argentina' s economy is that, in the face of an undivided
• 15:28
  income, perhaps conditioned by an export process that has grown to us mainly this
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  year as it was desirable, it faces a series of commitments, mainly the
• 15:41
  result of the necessary import of goods for the national industry and the external bending
• 15:48
  that every day implies, the drainage of uses for interest payments and the ambrotization
• 15:54
  of bonds from you that this month we have about a billion dollars to pay
• 16:03
  for the external eudation that I have accumulated in recent years, both in capital
• 16:08
  and in interest. And there is no real prospect that the Central Bank is
• 16:15
  in contritions, it is facing that commitment. There is no income of new
• 16:22
  dollars for financial agreements, because the international system including the Monetary Fund, is
• 16:30
  not satisfied with the ability of payment that the government does not at this moment
• 16:33
  have the external ovation and the neck of two of it, which implies the
• 16:38
  lack of tibrisas, provokes an explosion like that we are facing that we have
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  already had in the last forty fifty years many experiences, the most recent the
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  one of the two thousand eighteen, but we had in the thousand nine hundred
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  eighty- two thousand nine eighty- nine the drama that was positioned of you
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  economy when at the beginning of this one the Macrie government had no ability to
• 17:12
  face the external commitments and asked for help to Salvador of the prolomo that was
• 17:17
  the credit of the Monetary Fund. If we are once again faced with a
• 17:21
  situation that was to appear as it was not reinvigorated with the huge credit that
• 17:26
  Octaword Fund was capacity to export. Under these circumstances, the Government began carving
• 17:33
  seven months ago in the quest to tackle the problem of high inflation and external
• 17:42
  logging, with totally wrong tools. External bending is present and difficult to cope
• 17:52
  with. What is sought with the first steps taken by the new government to
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  evaluate very strong to stimulate export. But that does not happen because when the
• 18:07
  producers, fundamentally those of lagro, have to put all their effort in that
• 18:12
  direction, they produce important volumes like that of this year of Soka and Maíz,
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  which are the two exprotating stars, but they do not deliver their productions
• 18:26
  to the market in the desirable quantity, because they expect an evaluation. As
• 18:32
  they know that the Government will not face a critical situation in the external sectarianist,
• 18:37
  they are sure that it will have to devalue in order to emerge from
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  the crisis. It is that it is wrapped five dollars, there is no
• 18:45
  way out and, moreover, that it has been able to moderate the increase
• 18:52
  in prices and have managed to eliminate fiscal defitit, at least temporarily. They
• 18:56
  are very weak outflows because they are going to be, in the case of
• 19:00
  prices, comparing forward increases in tariffs that are indefensible and that would surely have
• 19:08
  caused very high price index values. And in the case of State resources,
• 19:15
  they cannot be increased because there is no effective capacity for economic growth in the
• 19:26
  midst of a sharp contraction of wages, of informal sectors, of pensions,
• 19:32
  all to achieve, in the latter case, retirement, the cessation of public
• 19:37
  works, a fiscal superior who fails to stimulate the income of dollars. We
• 19:44
  are then at a very dangerous crossroads, a crossroads that we already had in
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  the recent past several similar experiences. The crisis of two thousand one was perhaps
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  the one that most resembles the one we are beginning to face. The reula
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  cannot be paid, there are no dollars, the State does not stimulate production,
• 20:07
  which aims to replace imports and give boosts to exports and we are armed
• 20:14
  with these imbalances that we are facing today. What is the picture of the
• 20:19
  non- financial economy? We were talking about the financial crisis and now we
• 20:26
  know that knowing how that financial crisis has been dragging them down by measuring them
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  completely regressive from the national government to the economy as a whole, to its
• 20:38
  growth capacity and to increasing the income of those working. There are two very
• 20:44
  important reports that relate to the real economy, the economy of every day,
• 20:48
  that which involves employment, supposes wages, represents an improvement in the distribution of
• 20:55
  income and a decrease in the odes of collective impoverishment. The first piece of
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  information that it deserves is very important if it is the one that the Government
• 21:08
  of the City of Buenos Aires has just provided with statistics on poverty and indigence
• 21:15
  in the first quarter of this year. As you will return to the national
• 21:19
  level, it is for semesters and will only be known in September. This
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  first statistical report by the government of the city of Buenos Aires was the revealer
• 21:30
  of the very high social cost it has produced to a wrong policy of national
• 21:36
  government. The only thing that has led to is the fall of the consumption
• 21:41
  capacity and the noticeable decrease in the income of the passive workers, who lose
• 21:49
  between fifteen twenty percent today their purchasing power in relation to that that they had
• 21:56
  in November of the two thousand twenty- three. The acts of government of
• 22:00
  the city through its lending direction, imply that in the first quarter of this
• 22:07
  year, the level of poverty reached is thirty- five percent of the population
• 22:11
  in that of indigence. Fifteen percent of the population almost doubled the case of
• 22:19
  indigence and more than 100 percent increase in the case of poverty. The data
• 22:27
  of the first quarter of the two thousand twenty- three, that is,
• 22:33
  we have had very strong of this social gold without being able to satisfy the
• 22:42
  income needs sufficient to feed on nothing less than fifteen percent of the population of
• 22:47
  the city of Buenos Aires, the richest city in the country. This fifteen
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  percent is approximately four hundred fifty thousand porteños that do not reach them. The
• 22:57
  income to eat was practically the mical a year ago and much more than a
• 23:06
  year ago. Yes, in nine years, when Cristina Fernández' s term
• 23:11
  as President ended, it was six percent. That is to say, those
• 23:18
  who do not have enough income to eat have increased by 150 percent once and
• 23:22
  a half. Here, in our city of Buenos Aires. This concrete result
• 23:30
  of the real economy must be added in the increase in the civil regress,
• 23:37
  in the distribution of income. I say he lives. The distribution of income
• 23:42
  shows a strong perioro in the low- income sectors, compared to an increase
• 23:48
  in those that have the greatest resources to survive, and this index is the
• 23:56
  worst in the area of poverty in the last twenty years. So it is
• 24:03
  not illogical to think that the crisis that we are establishing these days, with
• 24:08
  the increase of the exchange rate for any of the variants in which the value
• 24:15
  of the dollar is expressed and the increase of risk, country that supposes the
• 24:22
  increase of the interest to be paid for contracting credits abroad. Now they do
• 24:27
  not even hire, but theoretically it would be a strong blow to the finances
• 24:37
  of the city and the inhabitants of the city if they had to pay an
• 24:41
  interest rate in accordance with the detheoblation of the risk index or country. We
• 24:47
  are then at a very complex crossroads, that there is no way out of
• 24:55
  the trap of dollar misdeeds. At the same time, the policy pursued by
• 24:57
  the government or national authorities accentuates this situation in Italy, even at the expense
• 25:03
  of the income of the people' s sectors, of the sectors living on
• 25:08
  the retirement of SMEs, etc. I really do not know how it will
• 25:18
  finally turn out that this phenomenon we are describing, considering, above all,
• 25:23
  that it has already inherited a lot of the same one for cymos one.
• 25:29
  I stood a similar crossroads with a very painful result for those who least want
• 25:37
  the possibility of changing Biden' s candidacy for some other alternative. It clearly
• 25:45
  exists. Let' s say it' s, when the river sounds water
• 25:52
  brings, it doesn' t mean it' s going to happen necessarily,
• 25:55
  but it' s clear that that' s a topic. It' s
• 26:00
  early July. The election is not month seven. The election is the first
• 26:06
  days of November. He' s the one that' s got four months
• 26:08
  left. The point here is vaid Not so bad from the point of view
• 26:21
  of the difference in the average of polls but the problem is whether Biden can
• 26:30
  win in some key states that allow him to control the electoral college, which
• 26:36
  is complicated today. Let' s not say right now the site sees Clear
• 26:42
  Politics, which is constantly updating with new national polls, making a difference of
• 26:49
  almost three points in favor of Trump. But that is not the most important
• 26:56
  thing, because, as happened in the year two thousand sixteen GIS with more
• 27:00
  votes and trump the President because he won in some key states, with which
• 27:04
  he turned the electoral college in his favor from anyway, Camala Javis, of
• 27:18
  which was talked about his eventual possibility, is not a figure that is having
• 27:22
  good, that already had good repercussions on public opinion, but is not a
• 27:27
  good replacement of Biden. The issue is already in March the Democratic Party'
• 27:40
  s top capitotes had begun to move chips to see if they would replace it,
• 27:48
  although the discussion on the issue of age had moved there from Obama to
• 27:53
  Bill Clinton himself. That didn' t work out. As time goes by,
• 28:00
  these operations are more complicated and, in addition, it needs to be
• 28:07
  very well designed, because you can play a big chip and if it goes
• 28:11
  wrong, that is the first impression, it goes wrong and then why did
• 28:17
  you change it? Let' s not say. A whole internal debate begins
• 28:18
  on whether they made an absolutely unprecedented move and that does not have the expected
• 28:27
  impact. I guess there must be a lot of characters measuring alternatives, not
• 28:37
  just at the national level. I insist if not on the key states,
• 28:41
  where he finally stayed with the election in the two thousand sixteen times to install
• 28:48
  a new figure that he can win there is because the times of public opinion
• 28:56
  have considerably shortened with the context of social networks. In order not to go
• 29:03
  further than others, Miley not only a phenomenon because they are a pccider,
• 29:11
  but also because of the speed in which he settled as a presidential candidate with
• 29:15
  possibilities. So there' s a different timing issue than at any other time
• 29:21
  in history, and that gives you more opportunity to turn the tobacco around in
• 29:26
  the short term. That said, they are always very complex operations and you
• 29:33
  have only one card to play in your hand. You don' t have
• 29:37
  more than one chip and the chip that If the chip goes wrong it is
• 29:45
  badly played, obviously you are very complicated the possibilities and channels. And behind
• 29:49
  that a fundamental thing in the United States, which is fundraising to solve a
• 29:53
  powerful campaign.