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A Deep Dive Into Jobs, The Markets, And Crypto · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's get over
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to the chief economist at KPMG. Constance Hunter joins us
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: with her take on the jobs report and the economy. Um. Constance,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Always great to get
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: your take. I wonder if, first off, what you think
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: what you thought of the numbers? One thousand better than
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the street was looking for, better than the whisper number
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: as well, and we had wages up, although not faster
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: than inflation as the presidents at earlier four point nine percent,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: which is better than a stick in the eyes. My
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: stockbroker always tells me, yeah, well, I agree with you.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: It's uh. It's a strong report and and it shows
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: broad based job scheme. So when we look at things
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: like the diffusion index, right, we see it at a
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: at a at a high UH, and it shows that
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: employers are adding workers. We also saw some things which
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: might seem counterintuitive at first. For example, we saw hourly
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: weekly hours work to go down slightly, and this has
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: been at an all time high after the pandemic because
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: workers are Employers are having difficulty finding workers, so they're
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: taking the workers they do have and adding more hours
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: onto them. And those are not necessarily hours that all
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: those workers want. So when we take it in total,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: it's a very good sign. We have momentum. We have
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs coming back, especially in autos. We've leaves are
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: in hospitality jobs coming back. So overall, a great report,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: and it suggests we're the speed bump from the delta
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: brea that we saw in the third quarters is passed
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: up constant for the time being. Forgive me, because I'm
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit of the perma bear here at Bloomberg.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: And this labor force participate patient rate, Yes it's stable,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: but it's still not moving. So you know, how do
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: we get that number to start making some gains? And
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I'll use a Muhammedalarians term here and say, you know
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: it was a disappointment. Yeah, Well, so what we saw
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and what I looked at was the also the female
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: labor force participation, which went up two tenths of a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: percentage point. But we have a considerable sticking point here,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: and this is that we still have temper cent fewer
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: childcare workers than prior to the pandemic. UM and this
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: creates knock on effects, right because if you can't find childcare,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: you're you yourself then may not be in the labor
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: force because you have to be home taking care of children.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Between six to eight percent of the labor force has
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: children under the age of six UM and so so
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: this creates knock on problems. And the question is when
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: do those childcare workers go back or do they go
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: back if they start to look for other jobs. Will
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: will they not fully go back until children under the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: age of six are vaccinated? Will they not fully go
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: back until we have you know, really UM, widespread remediation
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: if you if you catch COVID for example, like this
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: fisor product that was announced this morning. UM. And I
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: think what we're seeing is that this pandemic in the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: rear view mirror is something we keep expecting to happen
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: in the next month and the next quarter, and the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: virus keeps coming back and it is it is where
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: we see these sort of persistent problems in labor force
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: participation and in the ability of the economy to completely recover.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not just here, but but globally constance. Today is
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: my birthday. I know how thank you I'm getting older.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I'm getting old. I'm I'm four twelve year old. That's
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: also cooler. Thank you. It makes me think about the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: older people as well. UM plus in labor participation is
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: not climbing back to the pre pandemic levels. I think
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: part of that is and I know a lot of
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: people who have been able to retire a little earlier
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: and they thought they would, um, they didn't feel like
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: dealing and therefore, oh one case did really well? Are
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: we is that part of what we're seeing a little
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: bit of a structural change. So there was a great
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: paper presentative Jackson Hole this year that addresses sort of
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: this issue of retirement and participation and what happens during
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: recessions and then what happens during recoveries and expansions, and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: so the longer the expansion, the more likely it is
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: some of those people who are retired or did retire
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: temporarily come back to the labor force. UM and and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: that depends on the on the length of the expansion
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: and the variety of UH opportunities available, as well as
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: people's personal circumstances. So we think that eventually that participation
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: rate does start to return. But you bring up a
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: good point. The probability of people over the age of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: fifty five returning is lower than the possibility of prime
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: age workers who say they're retired returning, and and it
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: does bring us to this sort of long term UH
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: so called deficit of consumption, which is one of the
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: reasons why we've had the disinflation and deflation of the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: last several decades, and one of the reasons that people
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: think the inflation is transitory. I'm going to use the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: T word transitory is state dependent, not time dependent. So
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the state that the transitory inflation is dependent upon is COVID.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: The problem is that state COVID is lasting much longer
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: than people anticipated. So I also want to switch gears
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: here a little bit and talk about that's a great point,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: though let's I mean, I just want to linger on
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: that for a second, because I haven't heard that, and
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. Being transitory is state
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: dependent and not time dependent. It reminds me a little
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: bit of you know, I was um having a discussion
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: with Anna Edwards this morning about our fossil fuel use
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: and she said, yes, the President wants OPEC to pump more,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: but this is just for the short term, until you know,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to bridge this period until we can get UM into
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: more renewable use. And I think that's a pretty good comparison. Um,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: it's the state that we're in rather than a specific
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: time chunk of time that we that we could guess,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that we could estimate. Yeah, I do want to switch
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: gears a little bit because this number has been particularly
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: concerning throughout this entire pandemic, and it's that unequal recovery,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the idea that Black unemployment is seven point nine percent
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: while the rest of the country is facing, you know,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: an average four point six percent unemployment rate for Hispanics,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: it's five point nine percent, still little or no change
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: over the month. So why is that? And what can
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: be done to start make these numbers more even? M M.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: That's a really great question. And if you let me
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: take up the rest of your show, I'll be about
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: all the details, um, which is to say, this is
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: is this complex but not complex? Right? And what we
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: see across America is large firms like KPMG announcing initiatives
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: to make sure that our recruiting is more diverse, right
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: that that we are reaching out and having diverse slates
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of candidates to choose from, and then really being aware
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: of biases that might cause us not to choose a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: more diverse slate of candidates. And and while you can
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: skeptics and look at this and say, ah, well, you
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: know that's not enough. If every firm does this, on balance,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: you're going to see gradual shifts. I would hope in
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: in the outcome, that's that's the goal anyway. Um, and
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: obviously you know we're we're hoping to make bold shifts.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: But but I think realistically, if you look economy wide, um,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: there isn't awareness that this is a problem. When we
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: don't have people, an entire group of people in our
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: economy fully employed, we are missing out on a lot
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: of GDP, we are missing out on a lot of growth.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I think you know, and and and it's great for
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: KPMG as well, because I'm glad to bring this up
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to I don't know if you know Mindy Grossman, she's
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: a good friend of mine if you don't got to
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: take you both out for drinks. Um. She tells a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: story she started out at Ralph Lauren and then she
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: went to Nike and did some other stuff. Now I
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: think she runs weight watchers. She tells a story about
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: being the only woman in the Nike boardroom with like
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: twenty other guys, and they were asking the question, how
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: can we sell more shoes to women? And the entire
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: room looked at her, you know, and of course she said,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: maybe if you got a couple more of me, we
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: could do that. Right, Because um, diversity, it's not just
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: for the sake of diversity. It's not just to be
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: a responsible civic um citizen. It's just you can also
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: look at it as as a profit driver, as a
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: revenue growth driver. It will help to build GDP, right
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: because you can reach more people that way and get
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: your product out there well. And if you have more
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: people participating in the economy and fully participating in terms
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of their full potential in terms of education, you're going
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: to have greater innovation, You're going to have greater wealth creation,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have greater productivity. I mean, it is absolutely
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: ridiculous that we would systemically hold back people in our population.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: It just it makes no economic sense and it makes
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: no moral sense. Quite frankly, Constants. Always great to get
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: your take, and I really appreciate you joining us today.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Constance Hunter there is the chief economist at KPMG. I'm
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna hook you up with Mindy Grossman. Maybe
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I'll take shetionale. Why don't get drink, No, I will.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I'll bring you guys all to the club or whatever,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: and then I'll and then i'll just uh set you
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: free and I'll go do whatever. Um, thanks so much.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Always great to get your take. Constant Hunter is the
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: chief economist at KPMG talking to us about the job's number,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: adding five one thousand. UM. We had average hourly earnings
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: growing four point nine percent year over year. Labor participation though,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: is the problem here. It's the sticking point. Sixty one
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: point six percent was the actual number we wanted to see,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: sixty one point seven percent. So no growth there. We're
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: working on it. This is Bloomberg. Now, as he said,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get over to Peter Anderson right now from
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Anderson Capital Management. UM. He is going to give us
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: his outlook on markets. And first off, Pete, I want
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: to get your take on the job's number looking pretty healthy,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: especially the wage growth number for nine not quite the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: level of inflation, but it's almost there. Well, good morning everybody,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And yeah, that number was, in a word, fantastic. And um,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I don't place too much emphasis on the monthly job
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: numbers because I do think and recovery things are very messy,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: and you know, we don't hang our hats on successive
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: data like that. But when you do get a fairly
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: vague but improving picture of the economy in the labor market,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I think it's all very positive. Let me let me
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: ask you this. I get that you don't uh, you know,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: one data point a trend does not make or whatever.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: But we did get some pretty amazing news from Fiser.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: If their treatment can reduce hospitalizations and death by eight
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: nine in high risk cases, is that not a game changer?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I personally do think that I totally agree with you.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a major announcement I would say,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: equal to or maybe even greater than the vaccines themselves.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: And the reason I say that is, you know, there's
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: still uh contentions out there about anti vaxer's um mandatory vaccinations,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: that kind of thing. We're all going through that this country.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: But if you have a treatment for this, that kind
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: of obviates that entire tension between different opinions about, you know,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: whether or not to be vaccinated, etcetera. So I do
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: think it is probably the most major turning point in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: this whole messy situation we've been in for the past
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: year and a half. You know, there are some COVID
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: you know, stock market darlings, if you will, like Peloton,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: when people were you know, staying at home and working out,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: and now the stock today is down, by the way,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney used to be on that thing every single
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: day during lockdown and since that, since the last couple
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: of months, has just been hanging his coat on it. Yes,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I'm filling in. I've got to fill in for Paul Sweeney,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and let's talk about this Peloton issue, because you know,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: it's the thing that we're seeing here with Peloton. Are
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: there other companies exposed to this kind of issue where
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: people used it during the COVID times and now they're
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: walking away. Well, you know, I've always said market timing
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: based on COVID news. Really it's like standing on a trapdoor.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, we just didn't know this development. I mean,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: as evidence even by today Viser's News. So I think
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: it really is a foolish thing to try to time
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: investments based solely on the way you think they will
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: be UM attractive during a COVID lockdown. I think we're
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: seeing that the first damaged stock, frankly for that thesis
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: is Peloton. We're seeing that playing out right in front
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: of us. It's so fascinating. What do you think about
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the economy UH more generally overseay the next year. I mean,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the cops are going to get harder as we get
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: into um Q four, Q one, Q two. On the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: other hand, so you've got to think the supply chain
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: is going to ease a little bit and the labor
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: crunch has to soften somewhat. Yeah, that's right, Matt. And
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: you know a lot of people think I'm maybe a
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: mindless optimist on this, but believe me, I spend a
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: lot of time thinking and analyzing UH to formulate a
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: hypothesis in our opinion, and I remained bullish. I mean
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I was bullish throughout this entire period a year and
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: a half, and I continue to stay optimistic, and I
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: do think maybe next year, you know, we will be
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: wringing our hands a bit saying, maybe we've overshot our
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: estimates for earnings. But what a fantastic position to be in.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: If that's the case, then we would be truly I mean,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to worrying about that, because then we
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: would be truly in the rear view mirror all this
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: stuff about COVID vaccinations, COVID treatments, UH, supply chain issues,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: interest rates, all these things that we've been worrying about
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: and frankly worrying about in the dark. I mean, this
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: is a totally new period we've been through, right, We've
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: never had a history like this, and so that's why
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I urge investors to take it a little bit in stride.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: You know, don't hang your um your opinions on the
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: news of the day. You really do have to step
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: back and try to appreciate the mosaic that's slowly evolving
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: as we get out of this mess. So as we
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: get out of this mess, we're again we're still at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: record highs in the stock market. We've been up every
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: day this week. Not too messy if you're fully invested, right, yeah,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: so what do you buy now with valuations this high? Well,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you know, and you earlier asked, let's just finish this
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: other point about you know, are there other companies that
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: might be in peril? I'll Peloton, and I do think
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: there are. There are companies that anything that investors have
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: invested in based on this is a hot topic for
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: lockdowns I would stay away from. So I've never invested
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: during that period market timing based on certain industries instead.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: For instance, Peloton I never thought was attractive even before
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: the COVID came, and I didn't think always attractive during,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: nor do I think it is attractive after. But certain
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: other industries, uh, escape that and are more attractive. Let
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: me throw out some data security for instance. That's not
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: going to be a COVID timing matter, data storage, cell
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: phone towers, uh, anything that is less dependent on what
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I would call UM supply chain in more on intensity
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: of say, software development is a pretty good place to
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: be right now, and it probably will be the best
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: place to be even as we come out of this
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: COVID mess. All right, That makes that makes sense. Um
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: data security is something that we're gonna need, and healthcare
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is something I hear a lot about pete you know,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: from the tech side, from the UH read side, um
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: um just a pure play investment in that. It seems
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: like healthcare just still has a long way to go.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: It does as it always will, and I think COVID
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: has placed a you know, macro emphasis on that industry.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I will tell you another industry that I've been very
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: successful investing is pet care. Pet care business, whether or
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: not it be medications for pet care such as Zoetis
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: or the health insurance for pets called Trupanion UH, the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: health care of animals is probably even more has more
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: potential for increase, and I think frankly, it's simpler to analyze.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: You know, when you get into health care for humans,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: there is a whole specialization of that and you really
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: do almost have to have a PhD in biochemistry to
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: understand that. But when you look at pet care, you know,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the humanization of pets is a trend that maybe was
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: highlighted even more during r in COVID, but it's still here.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: It's here to stay. And as I said, when we
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: look in the rear view mirror, that will be another
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: industry that will be very, very attractive for sure. I mean,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: you know, I remember when I was reticent to get
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: an m R I because of the costs, and yesterday
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I just m R I. My dog. He's okay, he's okay.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I just want to make you make the point I
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: wasn't as worried about me as I was worried about Steve,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: and Steve is gonna be okay. Pete, thanks so much
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: for joining us. Great. Always great to get your intake.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Really appreciate you joining us on this program. Peter Anderson
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: is the founder of Anderson Capital Management. Now, one of
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: the things that we have made almost a central part
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: now of our data checks and business flashes, et cetera
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: is um Crypto prices Bitcoin right now down three quarters
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: of one percent to sixty thousand, nine hundred and eleven
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: dollars apiece Ethereum down just over one percent right now
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to four thousand, four hundred and sixties seven dollars. I
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: want to talk about cryptos with Scott Freeman. He is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the co founder and partner at j ST Capital. Talk
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: to me first about what JST does. Scott, where do
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: you guys do a JST Capital? Hey, Matt, good to
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: speak to you. Yeah, we are an institutional player in
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the crypto space. We do everything digital and service institutional investors, clients, exchanges, protocols.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: We've been in the business for well over four years,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: so that's a that's an eternity in UH in the
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: crypto world. What do you think about the institutional adoption?
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: What do you think about people making crypto part of
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: their portfolios? How long until we get to a point
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: where this becomes, uh, you know, as normal as holding
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know any other commodity. Well, yeah, I think honestly,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: we're well on our way there already. We're from the
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: retail side. It's very easy for people to get access
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to it these days, especially with the recent launch of
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the ETS and with the growth of the U S
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: futures market. I think it's just it just continues to
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: grow day by day, week by week, year by year.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: The e t F I think very interesting, but it's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: not as uh, it's not as powerful as having a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: product that's backed by the underlying that buys actual bitcoin.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: For example, we just get the futures and there's royal
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: risk and another number of other things related to that.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: When when do we get a real product that um,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: you know, mom and pop investors can really sink their
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: teeth into you know, Listen, that's a good point. I think, Yes,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: the future's et F is not as efficient as the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: cash based ETF, and we would expect maybe first second
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: quarter next year, it's likely the s see we get
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: more comfort with this is just an evolutionary process. The
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: fact that the futures et F with gone tho smoothly.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: The world hasn't ended, um, And I think that's a
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: good sign. More broadly, and we would expect to see
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: more e t s next year. We'll expect to see
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: a cash based goodcoin. We expect to see e t
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: s as well next year. So one of the big problems, UM,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: with this in investment is the volatility. You know, yesterday, Um,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the new mayor of New York, Eric Adams, asked to
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: get his first few paychecks in bitcoin, and people immediately
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: talked about the risk associated with that. It has come
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: down though, Um, but is this kind of volatility, I mean,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: is it here for for years for decades? When does
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: when does it? When does it get to a point
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: where your average investor can stomach it? Yeah, listen, I
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: think volatility at some levels all relative right, the bitcoin
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: is a very bottle. Asset volatilities have come down over
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the past few months. But what we've seen in the
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: past and what we do expect, there will be periods
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: of extreme volatility in bitcoin and in crypto, and I
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: think people should expect that. I think you don't go
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: into these assets hoping for lower volatility. Of course not,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: but it's at this point it's too volatile for um
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: for a risk averse investor to to get an involved um,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: you know, other than just throwing a small piece at
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: it as a punt. You know, it's more of a
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: gamble than an investment. And that's not the case for
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of other asset classes, and it's a big problem. Yeah,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I guess we would we would postulate a little bit
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: differently on that. We would say, listen, if you're going
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to go into it, expect there will be volatility. You
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: could be up or down on any day to day,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: a week to week. But for a long term investment,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: for you know, a small piece of your your portfolio,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: or even for you know, parents and grandparents who want
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: to set up their their children for college, things like that,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: we don't think it's a bad idea to put a
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: small portion of investment, and as a long term investment,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: we wouldn't encourage you to speculate around this. We think
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: long term bitcoin of cryptos more broadly are a good
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a good place to have a small percentage of your portfolio.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: All right, if you step back and look really long term,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: then Scott um, don't governments have an interest in crushing
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: these cryptos, you know, and especially as they come out
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: with their own digital assets. Yeah, I think there will
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: be regulatory or more clarity, a lot of regulatory side
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: going forward. I think there's already been some progress in
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the US, especially around the stable coins UM. I think
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: that will continue with evolve. I think for those of
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: us in the industry were big proponents of greater regulatory clarity.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: We think lack of regulatory clarity has been UM has
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: been an issue. We think going forward that will help.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: We obviously we hope that they're they're disciplined about how
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: they impose regulation. We hope it's still allows people to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: maintain some of the exciting and new things that we
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: think or bring a lot of innovation to the space.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Beyond stable coins, do you think there will be any
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: cryptos that we can use on a daily basis like cash.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: You know, I spent a couple of weeks back in
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: two thousands a team living on bitcoin and not using dollars,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: which was fun, But you can't really live that way
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: on a regular basis, especially now as transaction times get
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: so long and um, it's expensive to transact with bitcoin.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Is there anything that you think people are going to
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: be using to transact? You know, I think the more
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: likely scenario that people will be doing things on the
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: blockchain without even knowing it. Like people are already building
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: apps today, whether their web browsers or apps on your phone,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: that allow you to earn incremental revenue for just day
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: to day activity and people don't necessarily need to know
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: that bitcoin or crypto is behind it. But I think
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: they'll be able to extract value from day to day
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: activities where they can't do that today. And I think
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: that's when you start really saying the power of a
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: blockchain and crypto a big future and defy absolutely. Yeah,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: We're we're big believers in space. We're allocating more and
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: more people on capital to the space, and we think
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: we're not even in the first inning. It an ether,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: all right, Scott, to get your thoughts thanks so much
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: for joining us. Scott Freeman there co founder and partner
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: at j ST Capital and institutional player in the crypto space.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: And you know we're covering this more and more. Obviously
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: I have been interested in it for a decade, but UM,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I think everyone is starting to look at quotes on bitcoin,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: quotes on ethereum. You can get it on the terminal
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: see our yp go is where you can see our
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: screen of crypto or cryptocurrency monitor and you know, more
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: and more UM you're getting e t F s. It
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: started in Canada. Now we have the future z E
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: t F here in the US. And as regulation increases,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the question is are we're gonna see UM more of
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: these products that UM retail investors can get into that
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: institutional investors are going to adopt and accept. And it
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: seems like the answer is yes, at least thus far,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: and will continue to cover it for you. This is Bloomberg.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Let's get over now to the founder and CEO of
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: a hiring firm that always gives us such incredible insight
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: around UM. These data points we've got, of course, the
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: non farm payrolls number. It was an addition of five
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: thirty one, which was better than anticipated, even better than
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the whisper number, and we got um wages up four
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: point nine, almost as much as inflation. So that's pretty
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: good news. Tom Gimbal joins us out of Chicago. Tom,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: let me get your take first off on the participation rate,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: because this is the big problem. Everything else looks great,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: but for some reason we can't get this all important
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: participation rate number. To Budge, it's at sixty one point six.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: We were hoping to get it up to sixty one
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: point seven. What is keeping people out of the labor force.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: My belief on that is we still have the kids
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: problem with UH, not the you know, now it's changed
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: with the approval from UH the abillity to get the
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: kids the vaccines, but with kids in school not having
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the vaccine, you still have parents that were on the
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: sidelines making sure they could be home with their kids
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: if something happened with COVID in the classroom or their
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: kids got COVID to make sure they were there. As
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: COVID goes down, participation rate will increase. It's very confusing,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: right because on one hand, you're we're talking about kids
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: in schools, but education was also the big laggard in
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: terms of hiring here. What was going on? Well, I
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: think education is is always interesting when you have the
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: schools and the classrooms, you've got people that have moved
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: into different areas, and and teacher hiring will go in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: when there's when there's a baby boom so to speak,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: that that we don't need excess hiring in that area
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: right now. And there's been uh, for lack of a
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: better word, of glutt of teachers on the market for
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: for a decade or so in that capacity, and it's
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be a big change there. Where
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: we really want to see the change is in travel,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: in hospitality and the service sectors. And that means that
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: the world is getting back to normal. And when you
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: see a job's number like five one thousand jobs uh
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: last month, you got to look at it and say,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: this thing is working. And political affiliation aside. This is
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: without an infrastructure bill getting passed. This is based on
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the decline of COVID, This is on the vaccines. People
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: are getting back to work, companies are continuing to hire,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: record profits, stock market, we are in a really good
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: situation coming out of the pandemic. Well absolutely, and then
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: we get this blockbuster news from Fiser. They have a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: pill that they claim, at least in clinical trials, UM
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: reduces hospitalizations and deaths in high risk patients eight nine. Now,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: if that's the case, Tom, is that not a game
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: changer for the U. S. Economy? Oh, it's it's like
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: getting cholesterol medicine, you know, fifty years ago. I mean,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: this thing is legit. And when you get that in
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: clinical studies that it's that big for people who have disease,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: older people, You've got a real fight here to do that.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Now that the challenges if that is what people gravitate towards,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: and it doesn't allow people to keep getting the vaccine
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: because they go out, I'll just take the pill and
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have the same effects. I think the next
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: thing is going to have to be for the CDC
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to roll out how the pill works in conjunction with
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the vaccine, with the booster shots and where things are moving.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: But with more and more companies coming forward and being
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: a vaccine only environment, you're seeing the last uh, the
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: last straw to fall, so to speak, that people are
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: going to get the vaccine so they're not missing out
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: on opportunity. I'm kind of curious about this tension between
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: vaccine mandates and workers. You know, in this Goldman study
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: that President Biden, Marty Walsh has all pointed out. A
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: point that Goldman makes is that point six percent of
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: healthcare worker has left their jobs following employer vaccine man dates. Now,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: that's not a terribly big amount, but it is still
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: an amount. So how do you see this tension starting
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: to continue to play out? Well, I think there's tensions
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: across the board, and I think it's it's interesting. Right,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: We've also got a situation in the labor market where
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: the administration is saying we're going to give bigger tax
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: breaks to union organizations for electric vehicles the non union organizations,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: and I think that's what happens. We have a Secretary
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: of Labor who is so union friendly and that's how
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: they got got elected to be political office in Massachusetts,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: and that's where the legislation is going. So I think
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: we actually have an intersection of where the rubber is
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: going to meet the road right now, with the election
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: of the Republican governor in Virginia followed by the strong
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: jobs numbers, is going to say people want moderation, they
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: want respect in the in the community. If people leave
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the healthcare field, they didn't leave because they love the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: job and they were upset about it. They left because
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: they don't love the job. And then there was the mandate. Right,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: people don't quit abs they love because they don't want to.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: They feel their civil rights you're being taken away. People
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: quit jobs they hate and they use that as an excuse. Yeah,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's a it's a pretty good um, it's
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: a pretty good theory. I think I'm gonna go with that.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: There was just there was a statistic. There was a
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: statistic about the year and a half ago and no,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: two years ago, before COVID, and it said sixty percent
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: of the workforce is disengaged. Okay, that was before COVID,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: before remote work, before everything else. Oh, now, all of
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: a sudden, you can work from home to three, four
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: or five days a week. Now you're engaged more. I
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: don't think so. Now you like the fact that you
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: don't have to commute more, You're not more engaged in
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: the job. And that's the problem is we still have
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: people doing jobs out of necessity, which is what they're
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: passionate about. And those are bigger, deeper, societal is amen.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Brother Tom great. Always great to get your take. Thanks
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Thanks for listening to the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller N seventy
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: three and on Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio