Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 511 - 5/13/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 511 - 5/13/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome. To episode 511.
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  Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast.
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  Powered by rhythm, I am your. Host Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on, everyone? Happy Hump.
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  Day. That's right, it's.
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  Wednesday. That means we are officially.
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  Halfway through our work. Week early portion of the week
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  is over here guys before you know it'll be Thursday Friday
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  another big. Spring weekend.
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  Here with nothing but. Wall to wall.
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  MLB betting coverage. Again, I kind of joke about this
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  all the. Time.
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  I know there's NBA playoffs. I know there's NHL playoffs.
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  But I haven't found. An edge worth betting on either
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  of the post season. So what are we?
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  Going to do. Continue to grind a.
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  Sport where? We feel like we have an edge.
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  Based on our. Betting systems, our sharp mush
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  edges our rhythm edges as well. So we're.
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  Going to continue to look toward Major League Baseball for.
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  Today. So we have a.
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  Three pack. Of plays for you.
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  And the interesting thing about. Today's bets that they're all
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  dogs, baby. All three plus money dogs.
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  All three have line moves in their favor.
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  All three have a sharp. Mush edge for friends.
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  At Juice Reel, so it tells us that the.
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  Wise guys and wise. Gals like you out there
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  listening also are leaning on these plays and then also all
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  three. Have at least one.
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  Rhythm Green star recommendation?
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  One of which has all three. Rhythm Green Star recommendation
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  so. We always talk about.
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  How? Hey, we got a three pack.
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  Let's try to go. 2:00 and 1:00. If you're betting favorites that
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  are less. Than 200 you go 2 and 1 you have
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  a. Winning night.
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  Well, we go 2 and on. Some of these plus money.
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  Dogs, man, that'll. Be an even bigger night, so
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  let's see if we. Can get.
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  A couple dogs to bark for us. On a big Wednesday night MLB
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  slate. Looking back.
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  Toward last night, guys 1 and 2. -1. .26 units.
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  Cleveland Guardians. Were a nice win early for us.
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  They won three. To two over the.
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  Angels kind of back and forth they.
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  Always had a lead. And then the angels would always
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  kind of come. Back a little bit.
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  But thankfully, the Guardians. Hung on.
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  For a three to two. Win, but then unfortunately.
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  Our other two games. Again, this is what.
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  Happens when you have a three pack like you get the first one
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  like OK. Just got to go 1 and.
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  One with the next two and have a winning night.
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  Unfortunately, that didn't happen.
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  Because the. Cincinnati Reds were absolutely.
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  Pathetic, I know, Pete. Rose is.
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  Is shaking his head. From the The Big.
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  Casino in the sky. They lose. 3:50 against
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  Washington and the Arizona snakes.
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  Lose 7 to 4 against Texas. They were down 7 to 1.
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  Kind of made it interesting a little bit late, but came up
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  short. So 1 and 2 -, 1.26 units.
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  So we're going to see if. We can get.
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  Right back at it. And post a winning day here on a
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  big. Wednesday.
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  So that being said. Even though these aren't day
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  games. Let's waste no.
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  More time and. Get right to them.
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  We'll talk line, move, split, system matches, rhythm.
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  As well as juice. Rail.
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  And as always, again try to go 2 and.
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  One with some dogs barking for us.
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  Tonight, knock on wood. Fingers crossed so.
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  First put on the board I want to.
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  Talk about a six. 45 PM Eastern. Time first pitch.
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  Between the Philadelphia Phillies.
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  And the Boston Red. Sox.
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  Now Phillies come in. 20 and 22 on the year.
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  They won last night's interleague series opener 2.
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  To one hung on as a minus. 135 road favorite.
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  For tonight's rematch. We have the Phillies going with
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  the righty. Andrew Painter.
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  He is 1 and 4. With a six. .89.
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  ERA Red Sox, meanwhile, who are. 17 and 24.
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  They're going to go with the fellow righty Sonny Gray
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  veteran. Three and one 3.54 ERA.
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  So just seen across the market here.
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  Let's game open. Red Sox listed around a minus.
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  140 home favorite Philly around a + 120 Rd.
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  Dog and the public is split down.
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  The middle, they don't know what to do.
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  Yeah, the Red Sox haven't been great, but Philly hasn't been
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  great either. Red Sox are at home.
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  Philly won last night. You know again.
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  You can make the case for taking.
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  Plus money with. Philly since they fired Thompson
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  and brought in. Mattingly, they haven't.
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  Been playing better. But then again, Red Sox
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  relatively short. Chalk number at home.
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  So Publix down the middle. 5050 Now what?
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  Do we always talk? About again.
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  I think a big. Part of the all.
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  Systems go pot is not just. I hope you.
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  Don't just listen. Just for the plays and give me
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  the plays and you know. Hope they win but.
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  Really the. Thought process here is.
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  Trying to teach. The data-driven approach and how
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  to identify sharp bets so. Then you can make.
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  Sharp bets on your own you. Don't need me to.
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  To walk you through every game. By listening, you pick up on
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  the. The the.
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  Kind of the philosophy. And you're able to.
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  Make bets even when we don't have a.
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  Pot. That's really the ultimate goal.
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  So we always mention this and I always.
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  Try to reiterate that. When you look at the ticket
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  split, so we're just talking raw tickets or?
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  Bets. Has nothing to do with money.
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  These are the actual. Wagers place the number of raw.
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  Tickets placed when it's 5050, right down the.
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  Middle number one, throw away contrarian.
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  There's no contrarian. Value because the public.
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  Is split in order to go contrarian.
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  Need heavy betting on one side and.
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  Then you go. The other way.
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  So it's 5050. And you would think in a vacuum.
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  Tickets are down the middle. 5050 OK.
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  Line really shouldn't. Move it all.
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  Because theoretically. In that.
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  Vacuum odds makers have balanced action that.
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  Means they don't have to bring the number.
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  Up or down, they've set. Basically a perfect number with
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  two way action. However, 5050 and yet you.
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  See the line move. That's when I start to pay
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  attention because. If a line shouldn't.
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  Remove it off. The bets are even if.
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  It. Does move when the bets are
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  even? That tells me that even though
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  the. Public may not know.
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  What to do? Wise guys, Sharp.
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  Money respected. Money has taken a position.
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  So. 5050, Philly. 'S Red Sox yet?
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  This line has fallen. Away from Boston, we've seen the
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  red. Sox fall from. -140 down to -130
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  simultaneously, the line has. Moved toward Philly.
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  Plus 120 down to +1. 10 So that tells.
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  Us that a 5050 line move? Right down the middle of
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  tickets. Well, looks like the smart
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  money, the big money is going. Philly.
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  With some plus money. Here and to.
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  Kind of validate this if you look at circa.
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  Out in Vegas. Philly's getting. 55% of money
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  line. Bets.
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  So it's basically right down the middle. 5050 at DK. 55.
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  Percent tickets at Circa. Slight.
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  Tiny little lien Philly, but 73% of money.
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  On the money line. Here for the dollars are going
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  with the. Philly, so 55.
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  Percent bet 73% money on Philly and the lines moving toward
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  Philly. Tells me the wise guys in the
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  desert also. Taking the plus money.
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  With the Phills now. Philly would have some betting
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  system value correlative betting dog high.
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  Total Total in this game is 9. So more expected run scored.
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  More variance, more upset opportunities.
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  I'm. Going to make on the Phillies.
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  Hopefully getting to Sonny. Gray I know.
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  Painter worries me. He's got an ERA.
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  Almost of seven, but. Red Sox also are again, I'm a
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  Sox fan. They're terrible this year.
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  Their offense is terrible. Hopefully painter pitch as well,
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  but also hope the bats of Philly can get to.
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  Sonny Gray, because. The Phillies.
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  Are hitting 394 slugging percentage, 172 runs.
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  Scored Red Sox 3. 50 slug, 157 runs scored.
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  So 5050 but. The lines moving toward Philly,
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  we got a good bet split. We got the better bats.
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  We also have a 16. Percent sharp mush edge.
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  On the fills from. Our friends at Juice Reel and
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  also have one rhythm recommendation also.
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  Letting up on Philadelphia? So Phil's won last night.
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  See if they can do it again. Here tonight, guys.
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  I was able to use a 5% odds booster coin boost.
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  Token at bet MGM. So Phillies, mostly.
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  Plus 110 everywhere. I got him up.
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  To plus 1/15. Using that bet MGM.
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  Boost so I'll be sweating. Phil's plus 1:15 tonight.
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  But again, you should. Easily find.
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  Plus 1/10. That's pretty widely available.
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  Let's go, Phillies. Next bet for you.
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  Let's look at a 7 O 7:00 PM. Eastern Time, first pitch.
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  Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Toronto Blue.
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  Jays now the Rays. Break them up.
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  They just can't keep they just can't can't stop winning.
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  Hope they. Win again tonight.
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  Hint, hint. But the rays are. 28 and 13.
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  They won last night. Series opener, 7:00 to 6:00.
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  And extra innings. Came through as a. -120 Rd.
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  Favorite rematch for tonight? Rays are going to go.
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  With the righty opener. Griffin Jacks 1 and 2.
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  ERA of five blue. Jays, meanwhile, who are. 18 and
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  24, they're going to go with the fellow ready.
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  Dylan Cease. Remember, they gave him.
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  Big money in the offseason He's. I would say.
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  Paying it off, right? Now 3 and 1. 2.58 ERA so just.
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  Sitting across the market. This game open Toronto listed.
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  As high as a -, 160. Five home favorite Tampa Round A
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  + 145 Rd. Dog and the Public.
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  It's not a 5050 ticket. Count here, they're pretty
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  clearly on Toronto. Toronto's getting 62%.
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  Of money line bets at DraftKings.
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  So public is saying. Toronto.
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  Cease has been good. At home.
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  This is a Toronto play. So nearly. 2/3 of bets are on
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  Toronto. But here's where it gets
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  interesting. Even though Toronto.
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  'S getting nearly. 2/3 of tickets the open -1. 60. 5
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  They're not up. To -175 -. 180 No.
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  The lines fallen. Down from -1. 65 to -155 some
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  shops -150 so line is falling. Away from Toronto, even though
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  they're getting a clear majority.
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  Of tickets so. This would be a classic RLM
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  play. Reverse line move.
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  When the betting line goes away from the popular side toward the
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  unpopular side, so. Again, think about it.
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  If 2/3 of. Bets are on Toronto.
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  Then why are the odds makers dropping the?
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  Price of the Jays when the. Public's already betting them
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  to. Begin with.
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  Basically, the odds. Makers are saying, oh, you like
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  Toronto? 2/3 of tickets on Toronto here.
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  Let me drop. 10-15 cents and make.
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  It even cheaper for you to play. Toronto I always got.
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  To think why are the? Odds makers moving a #1.
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  Way or the other. Especially.
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  Compared to the splits. So.
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  Tells me you got RLM on the Rays.
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  They've gone from plus 145 down to plus 1/30. 5 some shops.
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  Now plus 130 DK's got some good splits on the Rays. 38% bets,
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  45% dollars. Nothing huge but sharp
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  contrarian, but circa get a load of this 71% money line bets 97%
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  money line dollars on the Rays. So both DK and Circa, especially
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  Circa in Vegas with some good sharp.
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  Splits on the Tampa Bay Rays. Rays also match.
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  Quite a few systems. So they're just a classic
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  divisional dog built in familiarity levels, the playing
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  field or upset opportunities. Benefits the team getting plus
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  money but dogs off a win. With a line move in their favor
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  matches with the Rays here, those teams are 48 and 4453
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  percent, 13% ROI this year. If you're a divisional.
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  Dog off a win? So just dogs off a win.
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  With a line move are good now your divisional dog off a win 40
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  and 3454 percent 23% ROI this year and if you're a sweet.
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  Spot dog between plus 1/20 and plus 150.
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  Those teams are 92 and 99, only a 48% win rate, but.
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  Because of the plus. Money a 12%.
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  ROI. Rays also.
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  Have the better bats. Hope they can get to cease
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  hitting two. 58330 on base percentage. 186 runs scored.
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  Jays hitting 240-7308 on base 175.
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  Runs scored. Lastly, Tampa Bay's been good on
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  the road, 14 and 9. They've been good in night games
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  16 and seven. Toronto just 12 and 11 at home,
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  barely above 509 and 13 in night games.
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  So we have a. Public play to.
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  Toronto, but the Lions. Fall into Tampa.
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  And kind of a rare opportunity. To get a really good Tampa Bay.
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  Team being contrarian and sharp with that, RLM noticed a 26%
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  sharp mush edge on the raise from our friends.
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  At Juice Rail and also. To Rhythm Green Star
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  recommendations from the Rhythm AI model, also on Tampa Bay.
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  So I got Tampa. At plus 132 at FanDuel.
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  Shop around. A lot of books around plus 130
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  now plus one. 25. Last bit of the night, 7:15 PM
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  Eastern Time. Let's go to.
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  Atlanta where the Atlanta. Braves are hosting the.
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  Chicago Cubs now the. Braves are 29.
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  And 13. Again, if the world.
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  Series was right. Now it wouldn't be.
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  Raised in the. In the Braves.
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  Probably. I doubt it.
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  It will because usually. What you think will?
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  Happen doesn't, but just goes to show.
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  Another team was crushing it this year. 29 and 13.
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  Overall, Braves won last night. Series opener 5 to 2, cashed.
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  As a -. 125 home favorite. So in tonight's rematch.
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  The Cubs, who are 27 and 15, they're.
• 11:58
  Going to go with the. Lefty Shota and Managa 4 and 2.
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  2.28 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Braves.
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  Ready Jr. Ritchie One and O. 3.6. 3 ERA
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  so. What we've seen across the
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  market will this game opened. With the Cubs.
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  Around a -, 140 Rd. Favorite Atlanta around a?
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  Plus 120 home. Dog and the Public.
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  Leaning. Slightly toward Chicago.
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  They got a managa. On the bump again bounce back
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  spot they lost last night. Public is leaning.
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  Chicago So right now. 53. Percent of money line bets at
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  DraftKings. Are going to.
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  Lay the the wood. Here with the cubbies.
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  However, even. Though Cubs are getting.
• 12:34
  A slight majority of tickets. The line is.
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  Falling away from. Chicago, they went from -1. 40
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  down to minus. 135. Some shops even down to minus.
• 12:42
  1:30. So that tells.
• 12:43
  Us, we got some sneaky sharp. RLM on the Braves as line is
• 12:46
  going. Toward Atlanta.
• 12:47
  Plus 120 down to plus 1/15. Even though they're the.
• 12:51
  Unpopular play? Now over at Circa.
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  Good sharp split on the Braves. 67% bets. 87% money line.
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  Dollars so big low. Bets higher dollar sharp split
• 13:01
  on the Braves in. Vegas system match same.
• 13:04
  One that just matched. With Tampa Bay.
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  Dog off a win with a line. Move in their favor. 48 and
• 13:09
  4453%. 13% ROI this year. Home dogs off a win. 53 and
• 13:16
  4952. Percent 12% ROI Atlanta's bats.
• 13:20
  Pretty darn good. Hitting 272, 233.
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  Runs scored, Chicago. Hitting two 48217 runs scored.
• 13:28
  Now in Managa. He's been incredible.
• 13:30
  At home 1.74. ERA on the Road 3.3.
• 13:33
  One so not terrible, but worse on the road.
• 13:36
  But did you know Braves? Hitting 280.
• 13:38
  Five at home, that's. Number one in baseball.
• 13:40
  They're hitting 271 against lefties.
• 13:42
  That's also. Number one in baseball, so at
• 13:45
  home facing a lefty tonight. That's been a spot the Braves
• 13:47
  have done. Well, in knock on wood.
• 13:49
  Cubs 9 and 10. On the road.
• 13:51
  They got an incredible. Record at Wrigley but.
• 13:53
  Losing on the road? Braves are 13 and six at home.
• 13:55
  They've been one of the better home teams in baseball.
• 13:58
  So we have public. Chicago slightly, but.
• 14:00
  Lines dropping toward. Atlanta.
• 14:02
  Atlanta. Also has a 12.
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  Percent sharp mush. Edge in their favor.
• 14:06
  From the the. Wise guys and wise gals who have
• 14:08
  downloaded Juice Reel. And this is the game that where.
• 14:11
  All three. Of the rhythm recommendations.
• 14:13
  Are green star predictions in favor of Atlanta?
• 14:17
  So the. Rhythm AI model likes the Braves
• 14:19
  tonight, and so do I. So the third dog.
• 14:22
  Got the Braves, I got them plus. 118 at FanDuel.
• 14:26
  Shop around a lot. Of books.
• 14:27
  Down to 115 or plus 1/10. So Phillies, Rays, and.
• 14:32
  Braves all three plus. Money dogs, See.
• 14:35
  If you can get some dogs to bark tonight, try to get 2 out of 3.
• 14:38
  And post a winning night. So that about does it for
• 14:40
  episode 511. Of the all systems go sports
• 14:43
  betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 14:45
  This is the part of the pot where we wrap things up.
• 14:47
  And I always start first by saying.
• 14:49
  Thank you. Thank you.
• 14:50
  For listening. Thank you for tuning in, thank
• 14:52
  you for grinding in the arena. With me.
• 14:54
  Every single day through. The winning days losing.
• 14:56
  Days, the hot streaks, the cold streaks.
• 14:58
  The UPS and the downs. We love.
• 14:59
  Betting. We love the challenge, we love
• 15:02
  placing, getting some action down each night.
• 15:04
  We like doing it in a. Strategic approach.
• 15:08
  Betting based on our head and on our heart, based on what the
• 15:10
  numbers are telling us. And the market?
• 15:12
  Not what? Our gut, our bias, our gut.
• 15:14
  Instinct is telling us if you do enjoy this pod.
• 15:17
  Please could you do me a solid? Just give it a quick five star
• 15:19
  review. On Spotify or iTunes.
• 15:21
  Leave a nice comment. If you feel so inclined, click
• 15:23
  the follow button. Recommend the pod to.
• 15:25
  A friend retweet the pod on. Twitter when I put it out at
• 15:29
  Josh under Score Insights. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 15:32
  sports betting, breakdown. Data-driven.
• 15:34
  Sharp. Contrarian betting focusing on.
• 15:36
  Line moves, bet split system matches taking a contrarian
• 15:39
  approach. Leaning on AI models that are
• 15:41
  backed up by. Data, not opinion.
• 15:44
  This style of betting has appealed to you.
• 15:46
  You want to learn more? About data-driven betting.
• 15:48
  Or maybe you have. Someone in your.
• 15:49
  Life who could use? Some data-driven tips.
• 15:51
  Or maybe you just enjoy the pod. You want to.
• 15:53
  You want to make my day. You want to let me know you
• 15:54
  appreciate the insights. I would love for you to go to.
• 15:57
  Amazon.com. And type in the.
• 16:00
  Everything guide to sports betting or type in.
• 16:02
  The. NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 16:04
  And grab a copy. For you or a friend.
• 16:07
  Bring them the sports book. I'll sign them for you or.
• 16:09
  I'll buy you a beer and. We'll sweat some games together.
• 16:12
  Next, have you downloaded? Rhythm in Juice Reel yet my.
• 16:15
  Two favorite sports. Betting apps, Rhythm for their
• 16:17
  AI backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 16:21
  Obviously, we talked baseball. Quite a bit, but WNBA if you.
• 16:23
  Want to bet WNBA? Rhythm has got some great
• 16:26
  predictions line up for player props and game bets.
• 16:29
  And then also Juice Reel. So many great.
• 16:31
  Features of Juice Reel you can sync up your sports books.
• 16:34
  Get a running report. Card of your action.
• 16:36
  You can also. Get the robo.
• 16:37
  Jackson best bet picks. Based on the.
• 16:39
  AI model. They come out a pair of plays
• 16:41
  every day at noon. You get the sharp mush
• 16:43
  indicators, the arbitrage. Plays the shop for the best line
• 16:45
  features. And you can also.
• 16:47
  Support the pod. By getting the all.
• 16:49
  Systems go official best bets. From the Juice Reel.
• 16:52
  App cost $4. And $0.99 a week, but again, I'm
• 16:56
  hinting. At it and might go up to 999.
• 16:58
  That means 9. Dollars and $0.99 a week.
• 17:01
  But either way. Guys, it's a great way to
• 17:03
  support the pod and I consider it a tip jar.
• 17:05
  Pod is free. So if you.
• 17:07
  Enjoy the insights and hopefully helps.
• 17:09
  You cash a ticket or two, go drop in a.
• 17:12
  Week's worth of plays for 499 a week and that would be very much
• 17:15
  appreciated. But download rhythm.
• 17:17
  Download Juice Reel. Give them both.
• 17:18
  A five star review. In the App Store.
• 17:21
  Next, do you have? A live odds page.
• 17:23
  If you don't have one, you need one.
• 17:25
  It's. Such a critical tool.
• 17:26
  You want to bet on sports? You got to be.
• 17:28
  Able to have your finger on the. Pulse of the betting market.
• 17:30
  The betting markets. Always.
• 17:31
  Moving lines are changing. You know, big money's coming in.
• 17:34
  Causing, you know. Lines to to shift.
• 17:37
  Up or down? You need to be.
• 17:38
  Aware of lines. Moving and you can do that.
• 17:41
  With the live odds page. So you will get every game
• 17:44
  listed. All different sports start times
• 17:46
  live. Scoring live in game wagering
• 17:48
  odds if you're alive. Better and then also a lot of
• 17:51
  work you're going to do preflop or.
• 17:52
  Before the game. Starts is from the odds logic,
• 17:55
  live odds. Page so you can compare the
• 17:56
  opening column. To the current odds, identify
• 17:59
  which. Direction the line is moving.
• 18:01
  Pull up the line history, identify where the buyback took
• 18:04
  place. Find the book giving you the
• 18:06
  best number. And of course.
• 18:08
  You know, looking at identifying Steam.
• 18:10
  I also love. Doing that when lines get a.
• 18:11
  Little lit up and red, you know they're.
• 18:12
  Moving. So if you want to bet that game,
• 18:14
  you better jump on it now. Before the the good number
• 18:17
  leaves you, but again you can. Do it all with odds logic.
• 18:20
  So I highly recommend. Going to oddslogic.com.
• 18:24
  Slash Josh, 12. 3. That's going to give you a 7.
• 18:27
  Day free trial and 50% off your. First month of service.
• 18:31
  So that about does it for episode 511.
• 18:34
  Of the ASG. Pod as always guys, two final
• 18:36
  thoughts before we get out of here.
• 18:37
  One whether I. See you at the.
• 18:39
  Borgata in Atlantic. City, Twin River.
• 18:41
  In Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods.
• 18:43
  Or Mohegan. Sun down in Connecticut at the.
• 18:46
  Encore in Boston. Plainridge park casino MGM
• 18:48
  Springfield or the. Nash and my.
• 18:50
  Neck of the woods. On the border of.
• 18:51
  Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Route in the desert.
• 18:54
  Where the true. Grinders get down where?
• 18:55
  Billy Walter sends his. Number runners where?
• 18:57
  Lois true as possible. Is found at the South point.
• 19:00
  Or sweat and sharp. Contrarian plays.
• 19:02
  Jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you.
• 19:04
  Cash a big ticket at Circa. Whatever it may be, you're going
• 19:06
  to walk up. To me, don't.
• 19:08
  Show me Reds or snakes, they let us down.
• 19:10
  But show me a Guardians ticket. Nice to see the Guardians come
• 19:13
  through. For us last night.
• 19:14
  First one's on me next. One's on you will.
• 19:16
  Post about the book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays.
• 19:18
  All night long. So as always, guys coming off a
• 19:21
  one and two or a two and one and O and three or three and OA.
• 19:24
  Winning night a losing. Night a hot.
• 19:25
  Streak a cold streak. We just got to stay the course.
• 19:28
  Can't get. Too high when things are going
• 19:29
  well, can't get too low. When things aren't going our
• 19:31
  way, we. Just got to be.
• 19:33
  Disciplined with our bankroll management.
• 19:34
  Avoid the. Games with red flags.
• 19:36
  And get down on the. Games that are.
• 19:38
  Checking off our boxes. Games that are against the.
• 19:40
  Public with the house with the pros Flat bet avoid.
• 19:44
  Parlays and get that CLV if we can do that.
• 19:46
  We're going to be successful. Sports bettors so if.
• 19:48
  Everyone has a great Wednesday night.
• 19:50
  See if we can get a couple dogs to bark.
• 19:52
  And I'll be right back at it tomorrow for a Thirsty Thursday
• 19:55
  edition. That'll be episode 512.
• 19:57
  Of the all systems. Go.
• 19:58
  Sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 20:02
  Good luck everybody and enjoy the Wednesday sweats.