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Episode 184 - 12/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:00
  Hello, and welcome to episode 184 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:07
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:09
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:17
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena
• 0:20
  guys, and we got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
• 0:23
  I have a 5 pack of sweats for you, including three college
• 0:27
  basketball sides with some good line moves and rhythm and Ken
• 0:31
  Pump system edges. And then we're going to look
• 0:33
  towards some kind of important games here, One in college
• 0:36
  football, a bowl game with a couple interesting things here
• 0:39
  happening in terms of one team getting a lot of line movement
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  and there's a reason for that because they're locked and
• 0:44
  loaded in. This other team just fired their
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  head coach and has a lot of opt outs.
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  So we'll talk about that and how to handle that.
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  I'm actually going to be looking toward the total in that game.
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  And then also a play for the NBA Cup.
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  That's right out in Vegas. We got the Bucks and the
• 0:58
  Thunder. And did you guys know that the
• 1:00
  winning team, every player on the winning team gets $308,000.
• 1:05
  So SO3O8K for the winning team. If you're, if you're Giannis and
• 1:09
  you're making, I don't know, 60 million a year probably doesn't
• 1:12
  mean that much. But if you're a bench guy, maybe
• 1:13
  making, I don't know, a million a year, that's a pretty good
• 1:16
  chunk of change. So we'll see how that one plays
• 1:18
  out, but I do have a play on the total on that one as well.
• 1:21
  So A5 pack overall as we jump back into the arena on a big
• 1:25
  Tuesday. Now, I do want to remind
• 1:26
  everyone we just started something new with rhythm.
• 1:29
  You're probably used to or have maybe jumped on some of the
• 1:32
  Sunday sweats. Myself and James Santor every
• 1:35
  NFL Sunday from 11:00 AM Eastern Time to to noon.
• 1:38
  We got some, we got something new going on.
• 1:40
  Started last week doing it again this week.
• 1:42
  So it'll be every Tuesday moving forward.
• 1:44
  So today at 4:00, if you have TikTok and I have now been
• 1:48
  introduced to TikTok and I thought maybe we're going to
• 1:51
  we're going to ban TikTok, but it sounds like Trump maybe wants
• 1:53
  to keep it. So that's a whole other story.
• 1:56
  But I am now a Tik Toker. So I will be hosting a rhythm
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  college basketball TikTok breakdown today.
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  So if you have TikTok and you want to call, you want to join
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  4:00 today, you can join the conversation.
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  We'll answer questions, kind of show, show the way around to use
• 2:11
  rhythm to your advantage, and then I'll give you some plays
• 2:13
  that I'll be betting on here for tonight.
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  So that's on tap later today. Now, unfortunately, we're stuck
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  in the abyss. We're stuck in the darkness,
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  guys. It is brutal out there.
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  Honestly, I can't remember a stretch like this for quite a
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  while. O 5:00 and 1:00 last night -5
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  units. And boy, was it just another one
• 2:31
  of those nights where not only did we lose, but we lost in the
• 2:34
  most heartbreaking fashion. So we'll give you a couple
• 2:36
  examples here. The one game we pushed was Vegas
• 2:39
  +6. And why was that frustrating?
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  Because Vegas scored a touchdown late the the Vegas Raiders, all
• 2:45
  they had to do was kick the extra point.
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  It was 15 to 9. They kick the extra point, it's
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  15 to 10. We cover the +6.
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  But of course, the way our luck's going, nothing's going
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  our way. And what happens?
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  The extra point gets blocked. So they lose 15 to 9.
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  Again, it's better than a loss, but that should have been a win.
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  Instead, it's a push. Jacoby Myers over 59 1/2
• 3:06
  receiving yards. What does he land on 59?
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  I mean, you can't make this stuff up stuff up guys.
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  It just feels like, well, it's personal recently, like we're
• 3:13
  being punished or for whatever reason.
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  Grand Canyon, sharp dog to fave line move.
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  They couldn't come through Bears plus seven.
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  Boy, was that a rough sweat. Their opportunities there to
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  possibly push or cover didn't happen.
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  Cole Comet. I still don't get why he isn't
• 3:29
  targeted more. He had one catch for 14 yards
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  going into halftime. I said, oh, we only need what,
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  11-12 yards to to catch that in the second-half.
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  He doesn't get a single target. So that was fun.
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  And then, of course, Colorado Avalanche Sharp Rd. favorite
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  line move here. Great bet split, they lose 3
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  nothing. So I'm at my wit's end here,
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  guys. But as always, we're not going
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  to quit. We're not going to complain,
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  we're not going to cry. We're just going to keep
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  grinding. And again, as bad as it's been
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  recently, that just that just kind of weeds out, you know
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  what, you know what, in a way, guys, when when you're on a
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  losing streak, I think it really shows and proves to you what
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  what you have inside. What kind of guts do you have?
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  Like, are you the type of person who again is doubling down,
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  tripling down, chasing? Or are you the type of person
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  that says, screw this betting thing, It's not fun.
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  I'm making sharp bets and I'm losing, so I might as well just
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  quit. Again, I totally get it.
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  It's it's totally, you know, I guess normal or it's a human
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  emotion to feel that way. But as as hard as it is, and
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  here's the other thing, my wife kind of annoyed me last night.
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  I love her to death, but she's like, how are your games going?
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  I'm like, oh, just another bad losing night.
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  And she's like, maybe you should change your process.
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  And that really frustrated me because no, I'm a data-driven,
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  sharp contrarian better. I'm not going to start taking
• 4:43
  teams getting 80% of bats. I'm not going to go against
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  sharp line moves. It's just a really rough stretch
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  where for whatever reason the planets are not aligning here.
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  So let's stick with it. Let's continue to grind even
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  saw, and this is again, totally understandable.
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  But when you're, when you're struggling and nothing's going
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  your way, I think your first thought is, oh, let me just fade
• 5:02
  myself. So I've been seeing a lot of
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  this on Twitter, including maybe maybe you saw this as well.
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  But certain people who are struggling just like us, and I
• 5:11
  get it. It's, it's the ultimate
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  frustration here when you're making bets and they're losing
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  because it just makes betting not fun.
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  It's not fun to lose. And again, losing nights happen.
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  One night you're up, one night you're down.
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  But when you're down consistently for going on a week
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  now, it can really just make you pull your hair out, make you go,
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  make you go crazy a little bit. And again, I, I totally get that
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  because I'm dying for some wins here too.
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  This is rough on me as well, but I noticed someone who said, let
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  me fade myself. And I, I said to myself, I get
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  it. If you're losing, the easy
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  thought is ho, if I'm losing, I'm making bad bets.
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  Why don't I just go against my bad bets and therefore I'll win?
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  But when you're getting to the point of resorting to fade
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  yourself, maybe sports betting just isn't for you.
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  You got to have faith a little bit and not from an emotional
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  standpoint, but from a, a mental or, you know, analytical
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  perspective to stick with the model, stick with a blueprint.
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  It's not that every day is going to be a winning day.
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  You're going to have bad stretches, bad weeks.
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  But if when you get to the point of I, I, I don't know what to do
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  anymore, you know, I'm, I'm freaking out.
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  I keep losing and therefore I'm going to fade myself.
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  I'm going to look for the games that I like based on my criteria
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  and go the other way. I think maybe maybe that's the
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  point at which you retire from sports betting when you get to
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  that point. I think that that's that's just
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  not something out the road I would want to go down because
• 6:28
  again, you fade yourself and what if, what if you lose?
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  And if you're like, oh, if I just stuck with my original
• 6:33
  bets, you know, I would have won.
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  So there's part of that too as well.
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  So totally get it. It's rough out there.
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  We're still in the darkness. We're trying to find the light,
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  but as always, we never give up. We get right back up when we get
• 6:44
  knocked down. So with that being said, can we
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  dear God, get some winners here for it tonight?
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  I want to start off with some college basketball because it's
• 6:51
  a big college hoops day. And again, I invite you all to
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  jump on TikTok. 4:00 PM Eastern Time today, late afternoon,
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  early evening, whatever you want to call it.
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  We'll be breaking down a bunch more games, but I got 3 for you.
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  So first one on the board. 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
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  We have a added game extra matchup between North Florida in
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  North Carolina Asheville. So this one caught my eye just
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  on the standpoint of, as we've talked about many times on the
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  pod, added game extra game game three O 651-530-6516.
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  If we have a low bet game that the public can't find on their
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  app yet, we identify a sharp line move.
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  We're going to go with the sharp line move because again, it's
• 7:28
  not the public moving the number, it's the professional
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  betters. So going into this One, North
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  Florida is 7:00 and 4:00. They've rotated wins and losses
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  over their last four games. Just took down UNC Greensboro
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  8977, covered as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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  Meanwhile, UNC Asheville, six and four.
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  They're hot right now, though they've won three in a row.
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  Just took down Western Carolina 7861, covered as a 7 point home
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  favorite. So what are we seeing across the
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  board here? Well, it's a low back game, but
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  it's got a sharp move toward North Carolina.
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  Asheville. Asheville opened as around a 1
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  1/2 point home favorite. Now they've been steamed up all
• 8:01
  the way to -3 So that tells us right off the bat, low bet game.
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  Sharps have gotten down on the home team, North Carolina
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  Asheville. You'll get DraftKings to getting
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  71% of bets and 82% of dollars. So it may not seem like a huge,
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  huge deal there, but 71% of bets typically is public.
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  But this is an added game, extra game.
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  So it tells me it's not really public.
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  It's more of a predominance of sharper betters with North
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  Carolina Asheville here. A bunch of advantages for UNC
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  Asheville. Free throw shooting which could
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  be important in a close game. 69% as a team versus 62% for
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  North Florida. Better defensive efficiency. 228
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  in the country doesn't sound great but North Florida is one
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  of the worst in the country. 318 Asheville is only giving up 74.2
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  points a game. North Florida is giving up
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  nearly 82. Also home Rd.
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  North North Carolina Asheville is 3 and O at home this year.
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  Now, Ken Palm does have Asheville winning by two, and if
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  you look at our friends at Rhythm, they're a little bit
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  more bullish on NC. Asheville -2.8 or -3 Those are
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  my two models here, so you guys know the drill.
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  I'm not going to lay a 3 here and lose by one or two, or win
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  by one or two and lose my bet or win by three and push.
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  So I money lined UNC Asheville. I got them.
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  I want to say -155 and we did see some over money here.
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  It's a high total 158, but now it's all the way up to 161 1/2.
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  I noticed an interesting bet split at DraftKings.
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  Only 39% bets, but 67% dollars run that over.
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  So maybe this is a higher scoring game here, which
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  typically does benefit a short favorite because more points
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  easier to cover that short number.
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  But again, add a game extra game at home.
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  Hot Asheville team, good line movement good.
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  You know, Ken Palm win straight up as well as Rhythm, hopefully
• 9:47
  covering that number. But I'm going to mitigate some
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  risk here. I'm going to go NC Asheville, I
• 9:51
  believe, are they the Bulldogs? But let's go Asheville on the
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  money line. I got him at -155 keep on
• 9:58
  cruising. Next one for you, Marist and
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  Stony Brook. It's not an added game, extra
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  game, but it's a very low bet Regular game 6O56O6 but saw
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  another sharp move on this one as well.
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  Marist comes in six and two. They've won six of their last
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  seven games, just outlasted Manhattan 82 to 75 covered as a
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  2 point Rd. favorite. You know, Stony Brook three and
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  seven just snapped A5 game losing streak.
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  However, they won 72 to 55 over Rider.
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  They won out right as a six point Rd. dog.
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  What do we see across the market here?
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  Well, low bet game, but obscure sharp line move toward Marist.
• 10:32
  I like Marist on the money line. Marist open this game around a 1
• 10:36
  1/2 point Rd. favorite. Marist has now been up to -2 1/2
• 10:39
  and now -3 at quite a few shops. So pretty clear movement in
• 10:43
  favor of Marist. Now, if you look at Circa,
• 10:46
  Marist is getting 80% of spread bets, but over 95% of spread
• 10:50
  dollars. So the wise guys out in Vegas,
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  as you know, Circa prides themselves on taking in sharp
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  money, Not, you know, not not limiting someone or refusing
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  outright their action, which I think is smart because the book
• 11:02
  gets more Intel. Even though they might have to
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  pay out some sharp bets, they're going to get more insight into
• 11:07
  how to adjust or mold the line, which overall is a good thing.
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  But anyway, we've seen this move toward Marist.
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  If you look at our friends at Rhythm, they have Marist winning
• 11:18
  by or basically with a spread of -3.6.
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  So again, you want to leave the three or you can maybe find a 2
• 11:24
  1/2 save the juice. I totally get it.
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  But Ken Palm only has Marist winning by two.
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  So that's why this is a money line play for me.
• 11:31
  I got Marist on the money line at -150 and Marist has a lot of
• 11:35
  advantages in this game. Number one, better offense,
• 11:38
  offensive efficiency, 249 in the country versus 313 for Stony
• 11:42
  Brook. Better defensive efficiency, 210
• 11:45
  in the country versus 298 for Stony Brook.
• 11:49
  Better effective field goal percentage, 53% versus 44% and
• 11:53
  better three-point shooting 35% versus 30%.
• 11:56
  Now I mentioned Ken Palm has Marist only winning by two, but
• 11:59
  he also has them ranked quite a bit higher 240 in the country
• 12:02
  versus 318. Another reason why I like the
• 12:05
  money line aside from, you know, not having the agony of laying a
• 12:09
  three or two and a half and winning by one or two.
• 12:11
  It's at the draftking splits look really good on the money
• 12:13
  line. Only 72% money line bets, but
• 12:16
  89% of money line dollars. And we do have a rest advantage
• 12:19
  for Marist, which college kids, you're young, you know, rest
• 12:23
  isn't that important as opposed to being older and being a
• 12:26
  professional. You just look at like in the
• 12:28
  NFL, bye week can be really beneficial, especially favorites
• 12:32
  coming off a buy a system that we love historically.
• 12:35
  But to me with college, the the extra time is beneficial because
• 12:40
  it means you have more practice time in the gym and and you
• 12:43
  really have more coaching and you're excited to get back out
• 12:45
  there again. I noticed that Marist hasn't
• 12:47
  played since December 8th. Stony Brook played on December
• 12:50
  14th, so I thought that was was notable there.
• 12:54
  But add it all up here guys. Let's go.
• 12:56
  Marist to win the Steam game. Got him on the money line -150
• 13:00
  last part of the night in college, 3 bets.
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  Can we find a way to get two out of out of three here?
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  Kendrick Lamar, Lamar University against Southern Miss.
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  This is an added game, extra game and you guessed it, an
• 13:11
  obscure sharp line move. This is game three O
• 13:13
  652-930-6530. Lamar comes in five and five
• 13:18
  started off pretty rough, but they've actually been really hot
• 13:21
  recently. They've won four straight, just
• 13:22
  crushed Louisiana 74 to 45. They went out right as a
• 13:26
  three-point Rd. dog. You know a Southern Miss kind of
• 13:29
  the opposite here. They've dropped two straight,
• 13:31
  just got steamrolled by Ole Miss 77 to 46.
• 13:35
  Didn't cover as a 23 point home dog.
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  Now this line open with Lamar listed around A2 or 2 1/2 point
• 13:41
  Rd. favorite. And we've seen a lot of books go
• 13:44
  from -2 two and a half up to three.
• 13:47
  Most books are kind of back down to 2 1/2, but all the juices -2
• 13:50
  1/2 -, 115 toward Lamar. So it kind of tells you, you
• 13:54
  know the movement, the liability at least open throughout the day
• 13:57
  current to now has been toward Lamar with the favorite here on
• 14:00
  the on the road, but also Lamar lot of advantages here, better
• 14:05
  offensive efficiency, 221 in the country versus 319 for Southern
• 14:09
  Miss, better defensive efficiency, big advantage here,
• 14:12
  139 versus 212. Offensive rebound percentage 35%
• 14:18
  versus 27%. Better three-point shooting 36%
• 14:21
  versus 31%. Any big advantage free throw
• 14:24
  shooting 71% versus 59%. Now our our guy Ken Palm has
• 14:31
  Lamar winning by three. He does how however, have them
• 14:34
  ranked way higher, 176 in the country versus 282 for Southern
• 14:39
  Miss. And Rhythm has Lamar -3.1.
• 14:42
  So both Rhythm and Ken Palm have Lamar run a 3 point favorite.
• 14:47
  And again, they're basically -2 1/2 in the market, but all
• 14:49
  movement liability has been in their favor.
• 14:52
  Now the other angle here I like is the defensive prowess of
• 14:56
  Lamar. They're only giving up 66 points
• 14:58
  a game. Southern misses giving up eighty
• 15:00
  points a game and we have seen a good bet split to the money line
• 15:03
  at circa. Only 50% of money line bets are
• 15:06
  on Lamar, but they're taking into account over 90% of
• 15:09
  dollars. So I money line Lamar got him
• 15:13
  around -150 and Lamar, by the way, is on A5 game road trip and
• 15:17
  they've gone 3 and O their first three games.
• 15:19
  So another another trip on the road, I think.
• 15:21
  And you know, I'm not going to, I'm not going to say, oh, when I
• 15:23
  played my glory days, but I remember in baseball, playing
• 15:28
  baseball in high school with my buddies, anytime we're on a road
• 15:30
  trip, it was kind of really good bonding experience.
• 15:33
  You know, it's like US against the world.
• 15:35
  You know, you kind of feel like you got something to prove chip
• 15:37
  on your shoulder. I kind of like the fact that
• 15:39
  Lamar is really playing well on the road.
• 15:41
  And they got another Rd. test here tonight.
• 15:43
  So I'm going to play Lamar and we're going to, we're going to
• 15:46
  pump some Kendrick Lamar and rock Lamar tonight.
• 15:48
  But I got Lamar on the money line.
• 15:50
  Win the damn game around -150 So 3 money lines.
• 15:53
  Can we find a way to get two of them, NC Asheville, Marist and
• 15:57
  Lamar? Now let's go to a bowl game
• 16:00
  tonight. That's right.
• 16:01
  All the got all these bowl games starting here, which typically
• 16:04
  provides a great opportunity to bet against the public because
• 16:07
  these are one offs. They're extremely heavily bet.
• 16:10
  There's a lot of public bias that comes into play, which
• 16:12
  basically says, hey, take the over, take the favorite or take
• 16:15
  whoever had the better, you know, ranking or record during
• 16:17
  the regular season. But typically, you know, with
• 16:20
  the oddsmakers knowing that there's an opportunity to kind
• 16:23
  of buy low on these teams that are unpopular and sell high on
• 16:26
  the teams that are. Now, let me give you kind of the
• 16:28
  low down here of the way the market is moved on this game.
• 16:31
  By the way, this is the Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl in Frisco,
• 16:35
  TX. It's an outdoor stadium, Toyota
• 16:38
  Stadium. That's part of my cap here as
• 16:39
  well. But going into we have Memphis
• 16:42
  10 and two. They're ranked 25th in the
• 16:44
  country. They won three straight WVU Take
• 16:47
  Me Home Country roads six and six, and they've lost two of
• 16:50
  their last three. Now it's pretty clear here that
• 16:53
  we've got some big line movement toward Memphis.
• 16:56
  Memphis Open this game at one point as low as like a
• 16:59
  three-point favorite through all the way up to basically -6 So
• 17:03
  part of me says, hey, everyone's on Memphis.
• 17:05
  They're getting over 70% of bets at DraftKings, over 80% of bets
• 17:10
  at Circa. If I'm laying a six, though, it
• 17:13
  gives me a little bit of heartburn because again, I'm
• 17:15
  with the public getting the worst of the number.
• 17:18
  And then I said to myself, oh, I'm not afraid to take a 20%
• 17:22
  contrarian inflated line play in West Virginia.
• 17:25
  But then I started reading about this matchup and this is what
• 17:27
  kind of scared me off of playing West Virginia.
• 17:30
  You have a lot of variables in this game.
• 17:32
  So on the one hand, you have Memphis locked and loaded ready
• 17:35
  to go. Everyone's playing full coaching
• 17:37
  staff. Their quarterback is a senior
• 17:39
  playing his last game. So it's kind of, you know, win
• 17:41
  one for the Gipper here basically.
• 17:43
  And there's an angle there where I think if with a win, they
• 17:45
  finished top 25, which is like the first time in quite a while.
• 17:48
  So this means a lot to Memphis. West Virginia, on the other
• 17:52
  hand, is kind of a dumpster fire.
• 17:54
  Like I'm certainly rooting for West Virginia to cover this
• 17:56
  number just from a contrarian standpoint.
• 17:59
  But they just fired their head coach.
• 18:01
  There's an interim coach coaching this game.
• 18:03
  They just rehired Rich Rodriguez.
• 18:04
  He used to be with West Virginia years and years ago.
• 18:08
  And then also you have a bunch of opt outs, transfers, guys
• 18:13
  going in the portal. Basically, you know, Rodriguez
• 18:15
  is coming in bringing his own guys.
• 18:17
  A lot of these old guys are now either kind of feel like they're
• 18:20
  getting pushed out or leaving for greener grass.
• 18:23
  So do I want to play a West Virginia team with an interim
• 18:26
  coach with kind of nothing to play for with a lot of guys
• 18:28
  opting out? No, I, I that worries me.
• 18:31
  So what I did is I looked at the total and I noticed one thing
• 18:33
  with a total. It opened as low as 56 1/2.
• 18:37
  That was the very early opener. Now it's all the way to 60 1/2.
• 18:41
  So I'm like, OK, looks like there was a lot of over money
• 18:44
  that came in. But here's the thing.
• 18:46
  This is a 9:00 game on ESPN. It's a prime time heavily back
• 18:50
  game. The total is really, you know,
• 18:53
  risen here quite a bit. And this is a very public over
• 18:56
  72% of bets at DraftKings are going over, 83% of bets at Circa
• 19:00
  are going over. And think of it this way.
• 19:02
  Yes, the total rose. But again, if you're playing
• 19:05
  over 60 1/2 right now, you're with the public getting the
• 19:07
  worst of the number. So my thought process is let's
• 19:10
  sell high, let's go under here, Let's go primetime contrarian
• 19:14
  under only game in town. Everyone's everyone's again
• 19:18
  playing Memphis in the over. So we can basically sell high
• 19:22
  and get the high watermark hopefully.
• 19:23
  And I do see a couple books that are 60 1/2 under -115.
• 19:27
  So I I already bet under 60 1/2. I'd love to see this thing start
• 19:31
  to fall back down to 60 between now and and and kick off here.
• 19:35
  But I like this inflated line opportunity.
• 19:37
  Now. Rhythm is kind of right on the
• 19:39
  number there at 60.1, but it's a contrarian play and heavily back
• 19:42
  game. The game is outdoors.
• 19:44
  I mentioned that Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX, eight mile per
• 19:48
  hour winds 5th gusts up to 15 mph.
• 19:51
  So it's a little bit of a windy under and we probably know
• 19:54
  Memphis will put up their points.
• 19:56
  Memphis. Memphis is averaging 35 points a
• 19:58
  game. West Virginia is averaging
• 20:00
  around 29 points a game. West Virginia is giving up 31 a
• 20:04
  game. Memphis is giving up around 23 a
• 20:06
  game. But here's my thought process.
• 20:08
  Like if Memphis is up big. And it becomes a run the ball 2
• 20:12
  out to the clock, that sort of thing that bodes well for the
• 20:15
  under. So to me, this is more of a
• 20:18
  value play than it is a sharp play.
• 20:19
  Like it's not like Publix on the over it open at, you know, 62
• 20:23
  and now it's down to 60 1/2. It's kind of the opposite.
• 20:25
  It's still a really good contrarian play.
• 20:27
  That's a very heavily back game. But basically we're we're
• 20:30
  selling high at the ultimate high watermark again with a
• 20:34
  little bit of weather and hopefully again, if it proves
• 20:37
  that West Virginia is getting rolled here tonight, get up big,
• 20:40
  take your foot off the gas of your Memphis.
• 20:42
  So I'm going to play that under I'm going Memphis WVU Take Me
• 20:47
  Home to the under Country Rd. Shenandoah River under 60 1/2.
• 20:52
  Last part of the night again for our five pack here.
• 20:55
  Let's go to the NBA Cup. I mentioned this at the outset,
• 20:58
  but again, if you're telling me I win, if I have a winning night
• 21:01
  time in betting, I get $308,000. Oh, I'll be scratching and claw
• 21:04
  and do whatever I can to hopefully cash those those
• 21:07
  tickets. We have the Bucks and the OKC
• 21:10
  Thunder 8:30 PM Eastern Time tonight on ABC.
• 21:13
  Now, in terms of the side, we've seen this line move a little bit
• 21:18
  toward the OKC Thunder. You know, some books for -4 1/2
• 21:21
  now up to five. It's pretty much staying pretty
• 21:24
  steady here at 5 at DraftKings, you're getting 56% of bets on
• 21:29
  OKC. At Circa, it looks a little bit
• 21:32
  better for Milwaukee, 40% bets, 61% dollars.
• 21:35
  So I didn't really have much there on the side, but what I
• 21:38
  did like is the total, I'm going to go under 216 now.
• 21:43
  It's a little bit like that Frisco bowl because the total
• 21:45
  did open around 214 1/2 and it got bit up now to 216.
• 21:50
  But I'm starting to see the juice on the under thinking that
• 21:52
  maybe this 216 is the high watermark.
• 21:55
  And just like we talked about the college football bowl game,
• 21:58
  it's a inflated line opportunity to go under in a contrarian
• 22:02
  spot. So everyone's watching this one.
• 22:03
  It's extremely heavily bet 77% of bets on DraftKings are on the
• 22:07
  over. However, the under only getting
• 22:10
  23% of bets, but 34% of dollars. Now rhythm has this pretty much
• 22:15
  exactly at 2:16, so it's not a huge rhythm edge.
• 22:17
  But here's my other angle to play this under.
• 22:20
  This game is played in Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena.
• 22:24
  And what does that mean? It means it's a neutral court.
• 22:28
  So neutral court, typically you lean under because it's an
• 22:31
  unfamiliar situation. The players haven't played there
• 22:34
  before or if they have, it's been a while or you know, it's
• 22:37
  kind of a rare situation and you don't really know the backboard,
• 22:40
  the rims, the court, the sight lines.
• 22:42
  The sight lines are kind of really what screw you up in
• 22:45
  terms of being unfamiliar. So there's neutral court.
• 22:47
  And then I looked at the last two games, OK C, the last two
• 22:52
  games that were played in Vegas in this arena, OK C beat Houston
• 22:56
  111 to 96 and Milwaukee beat Atlanta 110 to one O 2.
• 23:00
  So you had two pretty much lower scoring games in a neutral site.
• 23:04
  Now both teams are 14 and 11 to the under this year, and both
• 23:08
  teams are top 13. Defensive efficiency.
• 23:11
  OKC is actually #1 Milwaukee is number 13.
• 23:16
  But the angle here for me is a heavily back game, the only game
• 23:19
  in town everyone's going over yet this 216 looks like it's
• 23:24
  maybe point of resistance, maybe starting to come back down a
• 23:27
  little bit. And I'm not going to say this is
• 23:29
  game seven of the NBA Finals, but hey, this is a game where it
• 23:34
  is technically a championship game for the NBA Cup and maybe a
• 23:37
  lockdown on defense in a neutral court and hopefully get a lower
• 23:40
  scoring game, which again, is what we've seen from these teams
• 23:44
  in their last games in at T-Mobile.
• 23:46
  And overall they've been under teams.
• 23:47
  So I'm going to go under here under 216 and see if we can get
• 23:52
  a lower scoring game in this one.
• 23:53
  So give me Bucks Thunder under 216.
• 23:58
  So that about does it for today's pod, episode 184 of the
• 24:02
  ASG Podcast here Powered by Rhythm.
• 24:04
  This is the part of the pod where, First off, I thank you.
• 24:07
  I thank you for tuning in, for grinding, for sticking with the
• 24:11
  crew and the team and the mindset and the thought process
• 24:13
  when things are not going our way, to say the least.
• 24:16
  But again, sports betting is easy when you're winning.
• 24:18
  It's fun when you're winning, when you're losing and you have
• 24:21
  consecutive losing nights and you have a bad week.
• 24:23
  That's really when you find out what you're made of here.
• 24:25
  So let's not overreact as rough as it is, you know, going the +6
• 24:31
  in the missed extra point, you lose by lose by 6 instead of
• 24:35
  cover. Again, sometimes these things
• 24:37
  happen, but let's kind of let's try to not get emotional about
• 24:40
  it, not freak out, not go nuts. Let's just continue to stick
• 24:43
  with it and wait for this thing to turn because this thought
• 24:47
  process, even though the data-driven approach is not
• 24:49
  treated us well over the last week, it treats you well long
• 24:52
  term. So you just got to kind of deal
• 24:54
  with these little blips in the radar when you're when you're
• 24:56
  when you're flying through the clouds.
• 24:58
  Let's see if we can find some sunlight here.
• 25:00
  But anyway, guys, thank you for tuning in.
• 25:02
  If you would like to do me a solid, do me a huge favor.
• 25:05
  Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
• 25:08
  Maybe not for the performance of the best bets, but hopefully the
• 25:11
  performance of the insights, the breakdowns, Hopefully they
• 25:15
  provide a little bit of value because again, a lot of podcasts
• 25:17
  out there, lot of people though, we're betting based on gut
• 25:20
  instinct and bias and not even paying attention to the market.
• 25:24
  This is a different kind of pod. We're going to stay true to what
• 25:27
  the market is telling us and trying to make smart bets based
• 25:30
  on our head and not our heart. But if you enjoy the pod, please
• 25:33
  Amazon, Spotify, iTunes, YouTube, however you listen,
• 25:37
  please give it a five star review.
• 25:39
  That would mean a lot to me. And if you want to click the
• 25:41
  follow button or recommend it to a friend, that would be great as
• 25:44
  well. Secondly, as we have Christmas
• 25:47
  getting closer and closer each day and you're freaking out what
• 25:50
  to get a for a stocking stuffer for that person in your life who
• 25:53
  you haven't gotten a gift yet for.
• 25:55
  I got an idea. Make it easy.
• 25:56
  Go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
• 25:59
  betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
• 26:01
  buddy or a colleague or a friend or family member.
• 26:04
  Let's get everything I've learned in the industry, how
• 26:06
  lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement,
• 26:09
  how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
• 26:12
  online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 26:15
  management plan. Chapters on all the major
• 26:17
  sports, including how to deal with bad beats and losing
• 26:20
  streaks, which again, it is part of the part of the game we play
• 26:22
  here guys. But grab one, bring it to the
• 26:25
  book. I'll sign it for you.
• 26:26
  I'll buy you a beer and I'll we'll take some shots together
• 26:29
  cuz, cuz what can you do the other than drive yourself to
• 26:32
  drink when you keep when you keep swinging and missing
• 26:35
  recently. But anyway, guys, also if you
• 26:38
  haven't done it yet, great time to download the rhythm as well
• 26:41
  as the juice reel apps 2 great sports betting apps that help us
• 26:45
  to cash some tickets. Of course, rhythm with their AI
• 26:48
  back models and predictions for game bets and player props Juice
• 26:51
  Reel where all the all systems go best bets are located.
• 26:55
  You can also follow the robo Jackson best bets, which are
• 26:58
  from an AI model and then also you get the arbitrage plays
• 27:01
  sharp mush indicators shop for the best line for futures makes
• 27:04
  it really easy and of course, don't forget to sync up your
• 27:07
  sports books to the apps. You can get a running report
• 27:09
  card, which, which again, when I'm losing and I'm having a
• 27:13
  terrible week, I don't even look at my results.
• 27:15
  I know they're bad. So hopefully we can claw a few
• 27:18
  units back. But getting those results in
• 27:20
  that report card, it keeps you honest at least, which I think
• 27:22
  is important here. But as always guys, that about
• 27:25
  does it for the pod. So leave you with a couple
• 27:27
  things. One, whether I see you at the
• 27:29
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 27:31
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun and the
• 27:35
  Encore in Boston or Plano Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
• 27:38
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 27:40
  Around in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 27:42
  Where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 27:44
  as possible is found at the South Point.
• 27:47
  Or Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium
• 27:49
  swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 27:51
  Circo, wherever. Maybe we are going to exercise
• 27:55
  the demons. We are going to pray to the
• 27:57
  gambling gods. Vegas +6 with a mixed mess.
• 28:00
  Extra point. Jacoby Myers over 59 1/2, Lance
• 28:03
  59. You can't make this stuff up.
• 28:06
  RIP them up, recycle them, see if we can get some winners here
• 28:08
  for tonight. So as always, guys, stay sharp,
• 28:11
  stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
• 28:14
  side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 28:16
  never against it. Will smart money when?
• 28:18
  Every time, No. It seems like smart money is
• 28:20
  losing here recently, but that doesn't make us abandoned the
• 28:23
  process. If the weather man tells you
• 28:25
  it's going to rain and it doesn't rain, does that mean
• 28:27
  next time he tells you it's going to rain, you don't bring a
• 28:29
  raincoat or an umbrella? No, sometimes they're wrong.
• 28:32
  Sometimes the sharps are wrong, but long term they get it right
• 28:35
  most of the time. So let's stick with the process,
• 28:38
  stick to the blueprint against the public, with the house, with
• 28:40
  the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
• 28:44
  If we can do that, I'm pretty confident long term that we will
• 28:46
  be successful sports bettors. So have a great Tuesday night
• 28:49
  everybody. We got a 5 pack here.
• 28:52
  Let's see if we can find a way to get three or more.
• 28:54
  And of course, I hope to see you at 4:00 for the TikTok.
• 28:58
  I can't believe I'm saying this, but the TikTok Rhythm, college
• 29:01
  basketball, can we call it a seminar?
• 29:03
  I guess you'd call it a seminar. How about a live stream,
• 29:05
  Whatever you want to call it. I'll be breaking on games there
• 29:07
  at 4:00, so hope to see you guys there.
• 29:10
  But as always, we'll be right back at it for tomorrow.
• 29:12
  Rain or shine, win or lose, we keep grinding.
• 29:15
  So I'll see you guys tomorrow for episode 185 of the All
• 29:19
  Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 29:22
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.