Latest / Man in America Podcast / John Perez: Biggest Housing COLLAPSE in US History Has Begun, 60-70% Price Drop Expected

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John Perez: Biggest Housing COLLAPSE in US History Has Begun, 60-70% Price Drop Expected · Man in America Podcast

• 1:34
  Seth Holehouse: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Man in America. I'm your host, Seth Holehouse. So if you've been following me, you know that we recently went through the process of selling our house and moving. And it's interesting because going through that made me hyper focused on what's happening with the real estate market. Now, you know, I've covered real estate many times in the past.
• 1:55
  I've covered stock market. We cover a lot of financial news on here because I think that the financial system is something we need to be paying close attention to because it affects all of us and it ties into so many of these Great Reset and Agenda 2,030 plans. And so I over the past month, I started accumulating all this just data about what's happening with the real estate market and it was kind of mind blowing this information about the house prices, the debt to income ratios, the amount of inventory on the market, how things compared to 02/2008, how things compared back to the 80s and the in addition to this talking to a lot of my friends in real estate engaging on both the Ohio, the market in Ohio, how it was doing, but also the region that we're now living in, how the market was here, you know, because we're renting right now, but just kind of understanding the situation. And everyone I talked to basically said the same thing, especially the professionals I spoke with, they said, Seth, sell your house as quickly as possible, get the money out of your house, and hold tight.
• 3:00
  They said because things are going to get really bad really quickly. And now looking at prices, I'm seeing it and maybe in your area hasn't hit you yet. But I know for me, when I go online, at say Zillow listings, the price drop, price drop, price drop, price drop, you can see it happening. In addition to the inventory is so so dried up right now. And so joining us today is my good friend, John Perez.
• 3:26
  Now John Perez, silver is money. I had him on literally almost exactly one year ago where he was already saying folks, what we're getting ready for will be worse than 02/2008. And so we're going to take an updated look on what's happened in real estate the past couple of months, the past year, what the raising of the rates has done, and what he thinks is coming next. And what he's seeing is kind of because he's been in real estate since he was a kid. I mean, he really understands real estate, he also understands precious metals, the stock market, and geopolitics, bricks, the dollar, the deep state.
• 4:01
  I mean, this guy, it's great talking to him because he has a very broad picture. So folks enjoy this interview with John Perez. John Perez, it is so good to have you back on the show, man. How are you doing?
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: I'm doing great. Great to be back. Great to see you again. It's a, it's been a year since our last real estate show and, and you got a new hairdo too. I like it.
• 4:27
  Seth Holehouse: Yeah. It's funny because actually I just pulled that up this morning. So this was our last show that we did on real estate. And it was done September 15, which was within a week of where, you know, where when we'll be publishing this pretty much. And at that time, you were saying, look, folks, it's gonna get worse than 02/2008.
• 4:46
  The housing collapse is starting, it's gonna get ugly. And a lot of people came out and they said, oh, this is fear mongering or, you know, whatever was said. But I think it's it's a really good time for us to look back at kind of where we've come, but also where the market is at. Because as as the audience knows, as you know, we just sold our house. We just closed on our house on September 8.
• 5:13
  And I remember maybe two months before that, we were considering it's like, okay, do do we sell? Do we keep it? Do we rent? Do we, you know, stay here for a little while before the move? Called you, know, I said, look, I could really use your advice and you're like, Seth, sell as quickly as you can.
• 5:31
  Just go throw a for sale sign out there and you really, you warned me and what's happened in the market even in the last two months has been frightening. So I've got a bunch of data to show, but I'll just, I'll let you respond to that real quick before I get back to that, the data.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Well, good for you. Congratulations because it is. You're right. We are, we are, we've been in free fall from my perspective, but the last two, three months, it has accelerated to the point to where people are starting to panic publicly on you. Look at just, all you gotta do is look at the thumbnails on YouTube.
• 6:09
  You can make your decision. Okay. Thumbnail this. Everyone's got the, you know, falling off the cliff. Look, it's over.
• 6:16
  You know, we are going, we're in Armageddon. We are literally going down in flames right now. So good on you to make that move. In this business, as you know, timing is everything. Guessing that a market's going to crash is one thing.
• 6:32
  Having money and skin in the game in there, protecting it, profiting from it, or pulling out completely to protect your money. That's a whole nother ballgame. A million people can make their predictions, but how is that imp how what impact does it on their wallet, their clients wallets, and back and forth? And you took action. And in real estate markets, when it starts to move, the minute the herd moves, then the rug is gone overnight.
• 6:59
  It's just gone. And unlike a futures contract or a stock where you can just say, do, do, do, do, do, sell, selling a house is not what people think it is. It is a process. It takes time. There are pitfalls, there are potholes, there are things that can go wrong.
• 7:17
  Deals can fall out of line here. And you've got the greater fool theory where you got people buying. They may not know that, Oh, hey, hey Seth, I was going to buy your house. And then I saw that interview you did with Perez, you know, I'm going to cancel out of that contract, you know? Oh crap.
• 7:33
  I did the interview. I screwed myself, you know? So the market can change just like that in real estate, as opposed to a futures contract in silver or a stock in a mining stock market, we could just sell and be liquid. Real estate is a much bigger process. And that makes it, that can be dicey.
• 7:54
  You can't, you can't play games with the real estate market and say, oh, I'm just going to wait and see what happens. You know, all these fear mongers, when people say fear mongering, what they're really saying is I'm whistling through the graveyard in the middle of the night. Exactly. So anyhow, no fearmonger here.
• 8:14
  Seth Holehouse: Well, it is a good point because it, you know, we took a lot of work for us to get it ready because we had a lot of projects going on and whatnot. But, you know, from the day of listing, you know, by the time you list it, and you go through showings, and you go through the offers and the counters and the negotiation, and then you then you have you get you go into contract and then by the time you go into contract and then you wait for the bank and the title and all that stuff, it's a two month process. And you know, I've got you know, my mom is an example who lives in a really nice neighborhood, real estate's done really well there. And I've been warning her like, look, if you're gonna move, and she's always thought, look, you know, we're, you know, we'll have time, we'll have time, I'm watching the market. And it's like, well, once it, once that you hit the edge, it starts free falling, you might not have an extra week.
• 9:04
  I mean, you know, by the time it's like, the process it takes, unless someone comes up with a briefcase full of cash and says, look, I'm gonna buy it right now, which these days isn't happening. It's it's a different story. So, so John, I wanted to start off with, I've got maybe five or six different, bits of information, some graphs and some data that I'll run I'll run through pretty quickly. Because that's gonna I think help lay the foundation for our discussion. And for me, it's seeing this kind of information, because I'm watching this, this is the information I've saved over the past month or so, As I'm waiting for our closing to happen thinking, oh my gosh, if we don't close and I have to relist, I'll probably lose like $50.
• 9:45
  You know what mean? If not more. I mean, it was it was serious. So let me pull up just some of this information, then we can reference it and stop me at any point if you want me to anything, I'll try to get through it quickly. So here's one
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Oh, no. I'm gonna listen.
• 9:57
  Seth Holehouse: Okay.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: You're an expert right now after what you went through, you are an expert.
• 10:00
  Seth Holehouse: Well, it's like skin in the game. I mean, so I guess it kind of makes you that way. So this is something. So these are mostly posts from the CoBasey letter. This is an account I follow on Twitter.
• 10:11
  Phenomenal information. So here's Excellent.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 10:15
  Seth Holehouse: Housing inventory is now at its lowest point in This is crazy. In The US, there are a total of 950,000 single family homes for sale. To put it in perspective, there were 3,500,000 single family homes in 02/2008. Nearly four times as many houses that are for sale today. In 1987, there were three times the number of houses that are for sale today.
• 10:36
  So since '87, the population has jumped 40%. So what this chart is showing is that the actual inventory on the market is at its lowest point in history, which is that we can touch on that a little bit here. Continuing, mortgage demand is now at its lowest level since '95 and it's falling sharply. So to put in perspective, mortgage demand in 02/2005 was 300% above the current level. Since 2021, mortgage demand is down 60%.
• 11:11
  Meanwhile, existing home sales are down 16 already this year, their lowest since 2010. No one wants to sell and no one wants to buy. Okay, continuing. Monthly home payments are up more than 50% in two years. The median monthly home payment is set to cross 3,000 for the first time in history.
• 11:35
  So here they're showing that if you had a loan on a half of let's say a $500,000 loan at 3% interest rate in 2021 your monthly payment is 2,100. That same loan for half a million dollars just two years later is now costing 3,300. So an extra almost extra 50% more in what you're paying every month for your house, for your loan. Continuing, so this is this is this is bad right here. The debt to income ratio for all homebuyers in The US just hit 40% for the first time in history.
• 12:12
  Even in the two thousand and eight financial crisis, the ratio peaked at 39%. So what this is showing, and I'll pass back over to you shortly here, if you look at this chart, that the date debt to income ratio, that when that debt to income ratio basically mean that people are taking on so much debt compared to what they're they're making. So if you're at 40%, it's like you're every month, you're paying out 40% just in your debt payments. So if you look at this right before, this is another indicator, right, John? Right before the collapse of 02/2008, you hit a peak of 39% debt to income ratio right before the crash.
• 12:51
  But then look at look at this chart, and I apologize for the audio listeners, look at the difference though, of the debt to income ratio coming into 2023, it's almost a vertical line compared to where it was at in 02/2006. And here's another another indicator of consumer finances. So right now, here's from Zero Hedge looking at credit card debt versus personal savings. This is insane, showing that in 2020, so back, we'll go rewind back to 2017, you had typically the same amount of personal savings as you did credit card debt. What we're seeing now is something that is absolutely unsustainable, that personal savings look like they're at the lowest point they've been in a long time, and credit card debt is at historic high levels, which is quite concerning.
• 13:45
  Then we've also have all this information about how delinquency rates are at their highest level since 02/2008. So auto loan delinquencies, credit card delinquencies, all the delinquencies, the default rate on credit card loans from small banks hit a record of seven point five percent. And I think that they're saying that they expect it to go up to ten percent, where ten percent of people that have credit cards with small banks are not paying for their credit cards. And what they also did is interesting is that for the first time since, 02/2005, it's now cheaper to build a new house than it is to buy a new house. So that's just that's just a smattering of some information that that I found that I wanted to start the conversation with because, and I'll give my quick impression that I really want to hear your thoughts, there's two main points I pull out of that.
• 14:34
  One is that people can no longer afford to buy a home because of the interest rates, so people just aren't selling, so inventory is hitting record level levels or record lows because of that, But also, that Americans are more in debt than probably ever. And it's getting worse at a really, really fast pace. So it's like from both angles, not just the housing market, but also just the personal finances of people in America, it's hitting a point where it's getting ready to go off a cliff. So sorry, I kind of talked a little bit there, John. So I want to hear like, what are your thoughts on all this?
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I think you hit the nail on the head. I, in fact, I was not aware you're going to put these charts in the beginning of this interview. Perfect. It's kind of interesting because the very first one you came up, think it was the mortgage market index from the Kobe C letter and
• 15:31
  Seth Holehouse: that the mortgage demand, right?
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah. We're at nineteen ninety. Well, it's, it's, it's wavering between nineteen ninety five, 19 90 six levels. I didn't know you were going to put those up, but this is going to go back to this is the, this is the foundation of everything I'm going to, I'm going to talk about tonight.
• 15:47
  Seth Holehouse: Also this chart right here.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: It's right on the money. The difference is this though. It talks about the mortgage applications. And then the other chart you brought up was inventory so low, so low, but I believe that inventory chart, I believe that chart is deceptive. And I don't mean that in a, in a, you know, in a, a malicious way, but in my opinion here, hang on a second.
• 16:15
  Let me pull up this chart here. And in my opinion, the chart isn't really telling the whole story. It's talking about low, low inventory. Nobody's selling, nobody's selling, but I'll tell you, I'll get to that in a moment here. But regarding that chart and no inventory, it is a deceptive chart.
• 16:36
  The reason why the inventory, if you layer on top of that chart Airbnb inventory, Airbnb, which is crashing, on you layer the Airbnb on that chart, you'll see that the Airbnb listings went up as the inventory went down. So we had a decoupling there. So you see the chart and you see all the agents say there's no inventory, there's no inventory, there's no inventory. Nobody's selling. Well, I'll tell you what they did.
• 17:04
  They decided, hey, I'm going to go get me a DSR, DSCR loan here, which I have right here. And I'm going to get me a DSCR loan. What is that? That is an Airbnb loan. And here's the thing about the Airbnb DSCR loan.
• 17:23
  No credit score required. Where have we heard this before? Turn your clock back to 02/2005, '2 thousand and '6, '2 thousand and '4. No income. DSR loan, Airbnb.
• 17:36
  Imagine a loan getting a house, taking a house off the market. We think we can make this much. Great. Fill out the application. Here's your loan.
• 17:46
  No credit score. If you think you can make your payment, it's going to be 10,000 a month. You're going to bring in 12,000 a month sign right here. These are the reason why this, I believe this, I believe that the charts that are being reported, and you won't hear anyone else say this, I'll say this, The charts reporting the lack of inventory are deceptive. This is like, it's almost like saying, Oh, we have a million cars for sale.
• 18:17
  And all of a sudden, you know, someone comes in and rents 700,000 cars. Well, there's no inventory. We they're all gone. Oh, you, we, did you sell them? Did you rent them?
• 18:27
  Well, that's none of your business here. They're just not on inventory. So now we have 300,000. Okay, well where did they go? Well, they're just not here.
• 18:35
  We have a choice of 300,000. So those cars get rented out. Say 700,000 cars, term rentals. You know, no income loans, cheap loans, crummy loans, you know, subprime loans. Then all of a sudden they can't pay their bills.
• 18:49
  And here come the cars right back in, into the lot. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. That is happening in Airbnb is go you can look at a Airbnb bust. When all these charts go up and I see, I see them everywhere. And, I I subscribed to CoBC Letter.
• 19:08
  I there's a, there's a gentleman on, YouTube. I recommend that people watch him. Nick Gurley at Reventure Capital, Reventure Consulting. There is a list out there. You see the inventory going down, but then you layer the Airbnb inventory off of it and you can suddenly see the big X where you see inventory going down.
• 19:31
  It's like the skull and bones, the inventory, one bone inventory is going, and then the other bone going this way. So now you've got an X here, you know, and you've got inventory at Airbnb going up. Everyone's listening and gonna get make all that money, you know, cash flow that Airbnb while the inventory goes down.
• 19:53
  Seth Holehouse: Hey, folks. I've got a quick message for you. So I'm sure you've heard a lot of people, myself included, talking about the importance of buying precious metals, gold and silver. But what's really behind that? Is it just a thing of, hey, buy this gold, buy this silver.
• 20:08
  Right? Or is there something deeper that we should be looking at? So I recently came across some figures about house prices. So in 1930, the average family home was approximately $4,000. Fast forward to 2023, the average family home is just over $400,000.
• 20:25
  So you have to ask yourself, why is that? Is it because things have just gotten more expensive? No, it's actually because the dollar has lost 99% of its value since 1930. Right? When people talk about the collapse of the dollar or inflation, this is what it means.
• 20:39
  Now, let's take a look at gold. So in 1930, if you wanted to purchase your home in gold, it would take approximately 200 gold coins. So 200 gold coins would purchase the average family home in 1930, about $4,000. Now, if you instead of buying a home with that gold or cash, you set those aside. If you set aside $4,000 in cash in 1930, it would be worth $4,000 today.
• 21:06
  What can you buy with $4,000? Can you buy a family home? No, you can't even buy a crappy used car. But if you set aside $4,000 worth of gold coins in 1930, which is 200 gold coins, 1 ounce coins, that would be worth approximately $400,000 today. And this is the key lesson about precious metals.
• 21:27
  It's not about getting rich. It's about putting your money into an asset that protects you against inflation and against the destruction of the currency, which is what happens to all fiat currencies, especially now we're in the end days of the dollar. And so that's why it's important, maybe not all of your money, but a portion of your money, a portion of what you have, I highly recommend putting it into precious metals of gold and silver because what it's doing is it's protecting you. This is an asset that has stood the test of time, not just stood the test of time since the 1930s, we're talking about the rise and fall of civilizations. Gold was used to buy houses back in ancient Rome.
• 22:07
  It's still around. It's an asset that will forever have its value. So folks, if you want to do this and you need someone you can trust, there's no person I can recommend more than Doctor. Kirk Elliott. He's a very good friend of mine.
• 22:19
  He's a strong Christian patriot, and he's out to really help people to protect their savings and what you've worked for against the destruction of the dollar, not to mention also protecting it against the dangers of a central bank digital currencies. So to learn more about this, go to goldwithseth.com or call (720) 605-3900. Again, that's goldwithseth.com or (720) 605-3900. Both those places will allow you to set up a quick appointment where you can talk to a wealth advisor that will help get you started on this path. Again, goldwithseth.com, 7 2 0 6 0 5 3 9 0 zero.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: And what's happened is that people got these DSCR loans. Let me read this to you. Airbnb properties by their nature possess fluctuating income patterns based on seasons, local events, and traveler preferences. Traditional financial institutions with their rigid criteria might not always recognize the potential of such properties. DSCR loans, however, are designed with these very nuances in mind.
• 23:29
  Here's how they shine. Flexibility. Since qualification is based on property cash flow. You hear that? Qualification is based on cash flow.
• 23:38
  So you can be, out of work, no job, no income, but you got this house here that's got potential income. And like you need a DSCR loan. I think I can get $15,000 a month on this thing due to qualification based on property flow. Airbnb investors don't face the usual hurdles of documenting personal income.
• 24:07
  Seth Holehouse: This is it. Right?
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: Yes, you are. This is, this is the housing derivative of mass economic destruction in housing. This will be the greatest crash in the history of housing because of the Airbnb bubble. It will be the greatest destruction. I did a bunch of work on this and it didn't take too long.
• 24:31
  I mean, they just tell you flat out. Airbnb investors don't face the hurdles of documenting personal income. This is especially beneficial for those with multiple income sources or variable earnings that might be hard to document comprehensively. And you know, and I know documenting things in housing, it's everything. Now here we've got the ninja loans.
• 24:55
  We've got the liar loans. We've got the no income, no credit loans here. We've got the stated income loans. We have the subprime loans. We have all of the nuclear bombs that went off in the February all wrapped up into one big colossal TDSCR nuclear weapon here.
• 25:16
  It is gonna be the greatest crash in history. It's only been in the last ninety days, I thought, because I was looking for this. I'm like, where is, you know, where where would where's where is the big nuke? Well, so now back to your chart there. So all this inventory is going.
• 25:32
  Everyone is saying the same thing. And of course, I question every chart. There's gotta be there's another side to this. And lo and behold, no income, no problem, credit score, no problem. Lock this house up.
• 25:46
  The house goes gets sold with a DSCR. It goes off the market and suddenly the real estate agent, well, there is no inventory. Well, where did it go? There are empty houses everywhere. No one's living in it.
• 25:59
  They're investor homes. They're they're investors, which means you don't have families in there. And now the revenues are down twenty, twenty five, 30, 30 five percent down from last year. We are in free fall. We have probably, I'm going to say this, it is now 09/20/2023 by the, by Halloween, by Halloween here.
• 26:21
  And people in real estate are going to just suddenly have this eye opening re, realization that Perez was right. And now here's another one here. The efficiency traditional loans often involve a labyrinth of paperwork, income verifications, and checks with a focus on the property's revenue potential. It's all based on potential. And you know potential is you what do you, what do you think you're going to make?
• 26:46
  How much do you want? I want 15,000 a month. Okay. So what's your potential? 20,000.
• 26:52
  20 thousand. There you go. 25 or 20,000. 20 thousand. Sign right here.
• 26:56
  Here's your loan. Traditional loans often involve a labyrinth of paperwork, income verifications, and checks with a focus on the property's revenue potential. DSCR loans streamline the process, leading to quicker approvals and less bureaucratic red tape. Well, where do I sign up for that loan there? I'm going Airbnb.
• 27:20
  I'm gonna sign up loan after loan. You get 10 houses. I think I can make $20 on each house. Great. Let's get a DSCR loan.
• 27:28
  You bring in 20,000, we'll get you a loan for 20,000 a month so you can get this. So you got guys out there have daisy chained these loans. There's you look at this, this can't be for real. I have 10 it's like, you could walk in. I got 10 houses here.
• 27:45
  They have this much potential to cashflow 10,000 a month. 10 houses times that's a hun, that's a, you know, a hundred thousand dollars right there a month. Great. Let's sign right here. Here are all the houses.
• 27:56
  Here's the potential here. Third clause here, Whether you're eyeing a chic apartment in the city center of a beachside villa or a rustic cabin in the mountains, DSCRs accommodate a wide spectrum of property types. They recognize that diverse properties can have equally diverse income potential. There's that keyword, potential in the Airbnb market. Risk management.
• 28:22
  By emphasizing the property's earning capability, hear that? By emphasizing the property's earning capability, both lender and borrower have a clear picture of the potential risks and returns. This can lead to more informed decisions and better aligned financing terms. As the Airbnb platform evolves and diversifies, so must financial instruments, financial instruments to support it, which means derivatives, loan, debt based DSCRs emerge as the ideal match resonating with the unique rhythms and potentials of Airbnb properties. This now, so in a nutshell, back to your original chart, there's no inventory.
• 29:07
  I will tell you right now, anyone who tells you there's no inventory does not know what they're talking. All these real estate agents, there's no inventory. There's no inventory that either they're ignorant or they're willfully ignorant, or they're just not that bright. You know, I went through the last three, four housing markets, predicted them all, got out, got the clients out, made a bunch of money, you know, and it was just great. Everyone said, you're crazy.
• 29:29
  You know, it's fear mongering. We got out people. We saved, we saved millions. We made a lot of money. We did it again.
• 29:35
  Now this market here, now I found the derivative of housing Armageddon here. It is the DSR loan. When they, when someone tells you, you can look on CNBC, there's no inventory, no baloney, baloney. Why? Because a DSR loan, the DSCR loan took all the inventory and you can layer the charts on them.
• 29:58
  You can see Airbnb listings going straight up, and you can see inventory going down. And it is a shadow, shadow removal of low, basically the highest risk loans took that inventory out, therefore presenting the buyer with very little to choose from, supply and demand. Supply is down, write that offer, interest rates are going up, sign it right now. Boom, people are in here. This DSCR loan, this is the weapon of mass derivative destruction.
• 30:33
  When the history books are written, housing in 2023 will have gone off the cliff, and I have not even mentioned what's gonna happen when every single loan will be called when the stock market crashes down 1,200 to 2,000 points, and it will in red October here. This here will be overnight a colossal rug pull because there are loans that were written on people that were based on what? Speculation of the potential income. And that will vanish overnight. It's already vanishing now, but now it's going to go overnight.
• 31:08
  But I don't think anybody in the real estate industry has taken this seriously. No one has calculated. I will be right on the money on this here. And most people will be scratching their head saying, come we didn't see this? Not even talking, taking consideration when this stock market goes, all these banks are going to roll over because these regional banks are buried in debt because they wrote these loans here.
• 31:32
  They wrote these, you know, potential loans, potential, potential, potential, potential. So the regional banks are going to be buried. There's going to be margin calls day and night. They're going to call these loans in. It is going to be a wipeout of absolute epic proportions here.
• 31:46
  And probably on the other side, you're going to see big companies like BlackRock and Vanguard come in probably in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five. And to take things to the next level, at Silver's Money, we have a club called the Real Real Estate nine eleven. I have a channel called Real Estate nine eleven. And I said, this is going to be like nine eleven real estate. And many of my people that joined me in the Silver Gold Stocks Club, they probably sold, you know, fifty, seventy, 80, a hundred houses.
• 32:15
  We got out at the top. Everyone's out. They're in cash. They're into silver now. They're into gold.
• 32:21
  They're buying mining stocks here. They're diversifying here, taking cash at home. They got rid of their real estate liability. And now every single day. Oh my gosh, Sean.
• 32:33
  Thank you. Thank you for It was that interview I did with you, Seth. Now now I'm just coming clear to announce this DSCR. This is it's housing Armageddon. And Seth, it's now.
• 32:44
  It's not. This is not three, four. Literally between now and Halloween, we are going to see a pullback in real estate like we've never seen before. And between now and Christmas to your numbers, the credit card delinquency, dollars 1,000,000,000,000 plus. People have no money.
• 33:03
  And when you have no money, what do you do? You go to credit. They're maxed out all time highs. Second, they're going to be pulling out any money they can out of their homes. Equity to pay more bills because they have no cash and their credits maxed out.
• 33:17
  Boom. I think it was yesterday, Nick Gurley on Reventure Consulting said that up to 10 to 11% of houses have no homeowners insurance here. The, the, the consumer is tapped. We have gasoline now here in California, six twenty nine. California gasoline is going to $10 a gallon here.
• 33:39
  That is a, that is a tax that's gonna wipe out everyone. It crosses all lines here. It's an instant tax too. It's instant. We're gonna see $10 gas.
• 33:47
  Then we got, we got a hundred dollar a barrel oil coming here. That is another invisible, you know, you know, parasitical destruction of the cash buying power for the, for the, consumer here. So the average person here right now is dealing with high gas prices, high fuel prices, all these different things out there, and nobody sees. Nobody sees this. This is like the iceberg that sunk the Titanic.
• 34:14
  You know? It's like the guy on time. I'm the guy on the Titanic looking around freezing his iceberg. DSCR loans, this is the iceberg. You can't see it on the surface.
• 34:25
  It says Airbnb. Under Airbnb, it's DSCR loans. And when you look at the qualifications on it, it's like, wait a second here. All I gotta do is find a house and give a number of its potential. That's it.
• 34:38
  Sign right here. And nobody's covering this. It's going off the cliff, but I put together, I'm a big picture guy regarding the stock market, gold, crude oil. The crash in the stock market in red October, because this October here, this stock market is going to correct. Whether it's a flash crash or a crash starting in October going all the way into March, April, May of '20 '20 '4.
• 35:04
  Once that market crashes here, the rug's gonna be pulled out from the banks. And that is when this Airbnb thing is going to be like, well, they, they printed so many dollars. They raised the interest rates and yeah, that's another thing. Raise the interest rates, pal. You realize what's going to happen here.
• 35:22
  He's going to sink it here. So again, I can go down the line here on these DSR loans. This was a big surprise when I looked into this, I thought, wow, this is it. This is subprime. This is ninja loans, this is liar loans, this is stated income loans, and just simply no credit, no income.
• 35:44
  This is actually, this is lower than subprime. Why? Because they lent out more money for bigger speculation. The revenues have pulled back and now we've got a crashing stock market. We've got no one's got credit.
• 35:59
  We've got rising fuel prices and we've got rising interest rates. Man, housing, it's it's over. Stick a fork in housing. It is over. I love real estate.
• 36:10
  I've been in real estate since I was a child. And, this was a, this is a, I've shared this story before. You know, the reason why I'm so sensitive to this is because my father went through this back in the eighty seven crash and to back to that 1996 number here. This is very important. A lot of people don't know this.
• 36:28
  The average housing price in 1996, back to the original number, 1995, '19 '90 '6. In 1995, '19 '90 '6, the average house, I believe it's either Orange County or it was a national average. In 1996, I specifically remember reading this, the average housing price in 1996 was lower than the housing price of 1987 when the housing market crashed. We were just peaked out, Then it went straight down. It peaked out.
• 37:03
  So the average housing price '87 was higher than 1996. So now we have mortgage applications in 1986. Guess what? We are going to see 1992. We're going see 1991 to 1996 housing prices in the real estate market.
• 37:23
  I guarantee it. I used to say 55 to 65%, losses in houses. I got to update it. It's we're going to see 55, 60 five, 70 five percent equity losses in real estate. It'll be right on the money here.
• 37:39
  Silver will be launching at that point. Gold will be launching here and people will be running out of real estate. They're just going to be, they're going be going to the bank and just dropping the key off. Here's your DSR loan. Here's your DSCR loan here.
• 37:52
  Here's your Airbnb loan. Boom. Keys, keys, keys, keys, keys, keys here. And a lot of people really got suckered into these things. You know, I saw these guys on YouTube all day long.
• 38:02
  Cashflow, cashflow, cashflow, other people's money, other people's money. But I noticed, I just see a lot of young people doing this. You know, if you're managing money, you're working with people here, you have to know what you're doing. You can't, this is Vegas. This, real estate has turned into a casino and people are playing the cards out there.
• 38:20
  They don't realize this is a casino. You're not getting out of real estate in and out that badly, that quickly here. But, again, here, a couple more pieces here to the DSR loan. Investor friendly. DSCR loans aren't just about properties, they are about investors.
• 38:37
  Investors, I trust a homeowner coming in to buy a house, but it might be a little bit different with an investor. They recognize the entrepreneurial spirit behind Airbnb ventures. Entrepreneur. Yes. Let's make money here.
• 38:54
  Whether you're a first time host or looking to expand your portfolio, DSCR loans are designed to cater to a variety of investment scales and strategies. Lower down payment Given the right property, given the right property with a proven or projected high rental income, some lenders might offer DSCR loans with reduced down payments. There you have people. That little 1% teaser, 1% down, 2% down. This can be instrumental in reducing initial capital outlay, allowing investors to diversify or allocate funds to other ventures.
• 39:30
  Yeah. I'm going to buy this house and then I'm going to take the down payment and then I'm going to lock in the house next door and we're going to our potential income here. Greater leverage for savvy investors. Savvy. I can only think of what Johnny Depp and the Pirates of the Caribbean for savvy investors.
• 39:51
  DSCR loans can be a tool to leverage. By focusing on property income, investors can sometimes secure financing for multiple properties. Let's get a whole bunch. Who needs a credit score? Just show us the potential.
• 40:06
  Seth Holehouse: Alright, folks. I've got a quick message for you. I have one simple question. If today you could no longer go purchase more food for your family with the food stores that you have in your home, how long would you be able to feed your family? Would it be a week, three weeks, a month, two months, a year?
• 40:26
  This is a really important question folks that we have to be very realistic about because the elites are proactively trying to put us into a state of food crisis and a state of famine. I'm sure you've seen all of the different food processing plants and farms that are blowing up. You've got cattle dying by the tens of thousands. They're proactively trying to collapse our food system because they know if they can control our food, they can control us. And so one of the best ways to be outside of their control is to be able to have our own stores of food and to be able to produce our own food.
• 40:59
  So there's really two things I would recommend. One is having heirloom seeds that you can grow your own food with, making sure that they're non GMO heirloom seeds that that way you can harvest your seeds this year, use them next year. You can use these seeds for generations. Literally, it's how it will work. The other thing though is this high quality storable food.
• 41:18
  This is food that's sitting somewhere, it's hidden in your basement, buried in your backyard, whatever it ever it is. So that way if there is a crisis, if there is an emergency, you might have three months set aside to get through that time period. And so for this, I would highly recommend a company called Heaven's Harvest. This is an amazing Christian owned patriot company, and what they're doing is they're making high quality storable food. Again, lot of the food companies, they say these food buckets, they're all about maximizing calories per dollar.
• 41:49
  They're filling the buckets with a bunch of filler and junk like sweet beverages, etcetera. But Heaven's Harvest, they focus on very high quality food that will last up to twenty five years on the shelf. They also sell heirloom seeds. You can buy all of your seed, you can buy all of your restorable food. And look folks, personally, I would recommend having at least three months per person in your household, if not six months or even a year.
• 42:13
  Again, depends on your budget, but I'll definitely make sure you have some seeds because that seed those seeds could be worth their weight in gold, if not more in the future. So to go ahead and do this right now, go up a new tab and go to heavensharvest.com. And if you use the promo code Seth, that's s e t h, promo code Seth, you'll save 15% off of your entire order. So again, folks, the time is running out and you'd rather be three months or one year early than one day late. Again, heavensharvest.com and use promo code Seth to save 15% today.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: Concurrently. Multiple properties concurrently based on each property's earning potential. I love that potential part. How much potential are thinking out of there? State of number, stated income, you know, liar loan, how much you need?
• 43:04
  Well, I think you need 15,000, right? 15 it is here. Sign right there.
• 43:09
  Seth Holehouse: Basically, these these Airbnb loans are really, in many ways the Achilles heel, I mean, of but not the Achilles heel of a healthy fit fighter the Achilles heel of, of a soldier that's already getting ready to die anyway, right? It's the final.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: This is morphine. It's morphing.
• 43:27
  Seth Holehouse: You know, so I want bring up a few points. Kind of covered a lot of things. Gonna jump in and just hit a few of the points that you brought up. So one is that, let's let's go back to this chart right here. Credit card debt versus personal savings.
• 43:40
  Okay, when you look at the fact that, think in a lot of ways because of the the COVID relief money, right, that was coming out in the 2020, '20 '20 '1, which was really just imprinting my trip, pressing that print button, right, you know, just pumping money into the system, right, you know, look at this, okay, why do you think the stock market is doing so well? Because, you know, it's like when you inject all this capital into the into the market, into people, right? They're gonna put it places. Americans, now that maybe the Chinese, like I noticed there's some Chinese as an example, if they make $10, they're gonna save $1, right? In America, if you make $10, you use that $10 to borrow $100, right?
• 44:19
  It just it's a different perspective. So if you look at this right here, what we saw is that there's a peak in savings. Now Airbnb is primarily it's it's leisure, right? It's maybe it's work, but primarily people are traveling, they want to stay in a nice place. It's extra income, right?
• 44:37
  It's not their it's not a core expense that people would have to, you know, be purchasing Airbnb. So I imagine that in the 2020s, '20 '20, '20 '20 '1, etc, all this extra savings, people were saying, hey, let's go spend some money, right? So there probably was that but when we look at that 2023 and see the credit card debt that high, when people have already maxed out all of their credit cards, are they still gonna go on vacation and rent that Airbnb? No way. No way.
• 45:10
  So it's, it's just, it's another another part that that paints the bigger picture because that's what this is about, right? Because everyone's wondering, most people that are watching are either paying rent or they own their house, right? Like it's just the majority of people this affects both of those aspects of living. But looking at the bigger picture of this, and where this all where this is all headed, and I want to kind of I want to talk to you more about that in a second here. But these if you look at what happened in 02/2008 with all these junk loans, you know, the people are just handing out, you know, for most people that saw the big short, you know, these all the, you know, the people that this the one stripper who had like six different properties, and are people that had their dog's name on the loan, right?
• 45:57
  So they because these banks were just giving all these loans and repackaging and repackaging and reselling them and yet this huge market tied to that. It seems like what with what you're saying here that these Airbnb loans are playing a similar role, but then on top of that, you look at the rise in interest rates, the cost in all these different, you know, basics of livings, you know, they tell us, Oh, the CPI has only gone up point 3%. It's like, No way. Inflation I think inflation is well over 20%. I mean, if you look at the cost of food and gas and everything, it just seems like what this spells is that we're we really are hitting the edge of the cliff.
• 46:36
  And so I want to, you know, so you mentioned a few things I want to hone in on here, actually two things in particular. One, you talked about the stock market. And because let's just say that someone owns their home, say they bought it twenty years ago, they bought their home for $200,000 it's paid off, even though it's worth 500,000 on Zillow, it's like, well, you know, if it goes back to $200,000, I'm okay with it because I'm not going underwater because of it. But that per se person might have $200,000 in an IRA, or in their four zero one ks, or in a Vanguard, you know, account, which is tied to the stock market. So the stock market is the the bigger picture of this.
• 47:17
  But you also mentioned that you saw housing prices going down, you mentioned fifty, sixty, 70 percent. So meaning that let's just say at the peak of the market, like I'll say like, say right now, say someone bought a house in 2010 for 400,000 and say they're in Florida, and that house is now worth 1,000,000, they go to their Zillow Zestimate says $1,000,000 and they're thinking, this is amazing, maybe the house is worth a million dollars. So what you're saying is that correction is going to take us back to what you see as being almost pre 99 levels, right? So ninety five ninety six levels, which so that same house might drop down to being worth $250,000 instead of a million. So you're seeing that type of correction happening?
• 48:06
  And what duration? What's that look like? That's, that's major.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah. This is going to be a wipeout that we've never seen before. And it goes back to the original number, your mortgage application's at 1996, '19 '90 '5 numbers right now. 2023 is matching 1996. Now recall that 1996 housing, that was the bottom of the bubble from the 1987 crash.
• 48:42
  How the stock market crashed in '87, housing crashed with it. It didn't bottom till 1996. Housing normally bottoms for two years from where its technical bottom should be. It keeps going down. So technically the bottom was between 9496.
• 48:59
  Well, in the COBC letter, they talked about mortgage applications being at 1995 levels here. So a lot of people don't understand that when the stock market crashed in 02/2008 and it bottomed in 02/2009 housing didn't bottom till, till five years later. So we got a long way to go. But the difference is, is that in this market here, you had, in the last crash you have people losing their houses, they got incomes, they got families, they got, you know, jobs. Now you've got, basically you have speculators holding millions of houses with DSCR loans.
• 49:38
  They're just going to drop the key off. It's not going to be the process of getting in because they're empty. They'll be on the market overnight.
• 49:46
  Seth Holehouse: So it's like overnight, you're gonna have, you could have potentially you know, three, four, five hundred percent increase in inventory. I just checked, it's crazy because you said between 6075% roughly is what you saw. Looked up the average home price in 96, 1 hundred and 20 thousand, 1 hundred and 18 thousand. Average home price right now, 400,000. So what is that?
• 50:11
  Yeah. 65% drop? Yeah. Or wait, maybe it's even more than I'll calculate that while
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: More than that. No, that's more. It's about 65, 70 percent. And I'll tell you, here's another thing too. Something that's
• 50:29
  Seth Holehouse: It's a 70% correction.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Yes. Yeah. This is good. How how are we gonna make up? We we have spent billions money sending to Ukraine.
• 50:42
  Our infrastructure is collapsing. We have an unemployment number that's not legit. It's far worse than it appears. Inflation is not running at 3.8. We're running at 20%.
• 50:56
  We're already in what I would call a, it's not a walking pneumonia, it's like a walking depression. We're already seeing right now hyper deflation right now. We've got record, I think it's like 20,000 car repossessions daily, all time. So they're already taking the credit card maxed out. Cars repossessed.
• 51:22
  DSCR loans brought, Airbnb dropped 25, 30 five up to 48% in some areas here. We've got gold and silver just sitting in the bullpen ready to make its big move here. We've got oil at 90¢, 90 5 dollars per barrel this morning here, dollars 6 gasoline in California. We're past the unsustainable phase. We are in the implosion phase.
• 51:48
  The only thing that's that that what we're seeing now is everybody is just hanging on trying to keep a straight poker face. No one, you know, right now is the time to say, we got problems here. We gotta, we gotta take a strategic pullback. We gotta get tactical move here. These numbers here are real.
• 52:03
  Math is a lie. And again, at 1995 mortgage application levels there, at that time, that was the bottom of the market. And I know because we were, my family was in real estate. And I remember when it came down back in '91, '90 '2, '90 '3, my dad and I were talking to how's this property doing? We had bought a bunch of property in the sixties and the seventies.
• 52:26
  So we were in the money on a lot of stuff, but my dad had to unload some properties to pay for some debt from some corporate loans that went down that were recourse loan. So he was forced to unload cash real estate to pay off loans from company corporate debts that went down at 87 a year, and he was still crashing. So even though it crashed in '87, he was still dealing with this in 1992. And we finally bought him between 1994 and 1996. So the mortgage applications again, again, the price of houses in 1996 were lower than the average price in 1987.
• 53:02
  So we're going, we're, our mortgage application, we're already at 1996. It's just don't, there's no one filling out applications. And if, what's his name? Powell raises interest rates. We're going to go, we're going go to '19, I think 1991 when the Gulf war started in 1991.
• 53:20
  There's no way if we're at 1996 mortgage application prices here. And the reason why a lot of them are low is because some of these loans went to DSCR loans. So there's no applications. Well, where'd they go? They're getting DSCR.
• 53:34
  Well, those are easier loans to get. Didn't you, didn't you hear the description by Perez on man in America? You know, it's based on potential. So all this inventory is gone, but it's sitting in the hands of speculators. So when the rug drops on the, on the stock market, because a lot of people don't talk about, when you talk about the housing bubble, you, you look at the regional banks are done.
• 53:57
  They're underwater. They're in with these all the, they're in the commercial loans. That's a whole nother story there. They're in the commercial loans and real estate and little mom and pop banks that decided, Hey, we want to get in on those DSR loans and get that commission. Well, they're just sign right here, sign right here, sign right here.
• 54:13
  Get my commission here, get my baseball cap, turn it sideways and let's go get the Lambo. Those days are coming to, they're done. They're over. So during the last crash when the stock market pulled back, if you had your $4.00 1 ks and you were embarrassed turns like Jim Kramer said, 125 a share, do not pull your money out of that stock market. Two days later, stocks at $2 a share.
• 54:38
  Want your $4.00 1 ks on top of your housing equity, but the banks are going to call all these loans in. And these people here, remember they came in with basically what I would call, we're not even talking about the fraud yet because I looked at the fraud here. The co, COVID fraud is at the department of justice going through the treasury down there. The the COVID fraud is so off the chain. Now the Airbnb fraud is even worse.
• 55:08
  So we have not seen it. So when that stock market goes, that is what happened a lot when that market went down in o eight. People say, oh, the, you know, the housing crash of o eight. It looks like, wait a second here. Obama was voted in.
• 55:22
  He came in, stock market began its crashing. It marched all the way down, all the way down to March, March, 02/2009, it went down to June into the S and P May. Well, I think we're going to see the same thing here in the next couple weeks. We're going to see the same. And it's very short notice here, very short notice.
• 55:43
  And we're going to start. The, the math doesn't lie. Again, the, the credit card, the, the, you have no credit card. What do you're gonna have to go to your house and pull cash out or you're gonna get hard money loans or you're gonna do this. You can't go to you can't go to Airbnb anymore.
• 55:59
  Why? Because if the customer's tapped, they don't have the luxury money to go do a rental in Airbnb. And now some of the numbers I'm seeing, I saw some numbers yesterday from Reventure talking about how many houses there's like, in some cases there's three, four, five hundred, seven hundred percent more empty houses locked in with Airbnb loan versus the amount of houses for sale. So you might go to a small town, we've got 20 houses for sale. That's not much inventory.
• 56:34
  Well, that's right. But there's 200 empty houses. They're locked into Airbnb and they can't rent them out. They're empty. This, this, this, this is the new Big Short.
• 56:48
  If there was a Big Short part two, a margin call movie part two, it's going to be about Airbnb. It's a movie script, Seth. It is a movie script here, and nobody's talking about it, but this is my specialty. I'm, I'm, you know, I'm a contrarian guy. You know, when Michael Burry was doing all his work during, back in, oh, you know, 05/2006, I was following him closely cause real estate here too.
• 57:13
  And now I'm looking at this, I'm waiting for him to come out. He needs to comment on Airbnb, but Airbnb, no doubt this is the weapon of mass housing destruction in the real estate market here. And to your point regarding luxury capital there, people just, the consumer is tapped. They lied about the CPI numbers. They lie about the unemployment numbers here.
• 57:36
  And let me just add this. Biden is about to lock everyone down on a new COVID adventure, and it's just gonna wipe everyone out next to $10 gasoline, the oil cuts by the Saudis here. I mean, the list goes on and on and on. And, at this stage of the game, it's pretty much put on your helmet and get in the bunker and fricking get ready because nobody's talking about this. And I, you know me, I like to talk about the things that nobody's talking about.
• 58:10
  Seth Holehouse: Exactly. So one question I had in East, you touched on it a little bit, right, is that everyone talks about the housing crash of a wait, but I think what really, really, you know, caused catastrophic damage was the stock market crash that that followed, right? I mean, it was, they're interlinked. And so we saw the all the, you know, the imagery from Wall Street, people walking out with their cardboard box of their pictures and, you know, their their their, you know, lava lamp they had on their desk, you know, working for the big banks and whatnot. And that was just like that really, really hit every American regardless of what your house was worth or regardless of whether you're trying to sell your house or not, it hit everyone's savings and their wallets.
• 58:52
  And so with what what we've kind of laid out here in terms of the where the housing market's at and agents that I've talked to, because I've got a handful of friends that are in real estate and ones I've talked to, especially because you know, we're renting now, right? So we sold our house, we got out, this is my thought, like, look, our house was at its maximum value for over the past ten years, at its peak. My thought was like, okay, sell the house, take whatever equity we had in it, probably put it into silver, right? And we're not gonna we're not and so we're renting right now. So we're renting so that we can just watch the market.
• 59:28
  I think we're gonna build, because, know, we're not gonna rush in to go buy a house right now. So we're just kind of pausing and watching what happens, right? Which I think is even though rents higher than it was two years ago Smart.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: It's a smart thing to do.
• 59:43
  Seth Holehouse: You know, it's like I'm not I'm not hitching to, you know, having, you know, so much money sitting in an asset that could go up or down so quickly like that, like the housing market. So but in terms of looking at how okay, this market collapse you're talking about, as I mentioned, these real estate people I've talked to, they're saying, look, the prices are already coming down. They're seeing it, right? And even like, if you look at Zillow in different regions, I'm always tracking and in the area where I'm at, because I'm thinking, okay, maybe we do want to buy this curious, you know, it's kind of maybe the perfect house pops up, hypothetically. What I'm seeing is listings, listing dropped 20,000 listing dropped 30,000 listing dropped 40,000 listing dropped 6,000, you know, on Zillow for thirty four days, on Zillow for thirty eight days, on Zillow for sixty three days.
• 1:00:32
  That's not what things looked like a year ago. I mean, a year ago, it was everything was selling for 10% over asking, I mean, it was wild, but what you're seeing now is that prices are the the the the descent has already started. So how you you talk about housing going back to say 96 in what you you know, dropping upwards of 70%. Right now, you know, today, Dow Jones is at almost 35,000. I think this is what makes a lot of people think there's nothing wrong.
• 1:01:05
  They say, Well, stock market's doing great. What do you see happening to the stock market over the next six months?
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Well, in our last conversation, I talked about $15,000 Dow Jones and a one to one reset of gold being at $15,000 an ounce and the Dow Jones being at 15,000. That remember, we're in an artificial stock bubble. I mean, this stock market should not be where it's at right now. The only reason why it's there is because it's being managed. The stock market has now become the silver market.
• 1:01:44
  The same pressures that hold silver and gold down are the same pressures holding the Dow Jones up. So that game is is coming to an end. And that's what happened last time too. During the last crash, people didn't see that's when gold and silver took off. 02/2008, I think silver was at 02/2008.
• 1:02:03
  I think we were at $13.14, $15. In 2012, boom, we're at $50. You know, housing down, silver and gold went up. A lot of people are not going to be able to see the current market. And I know in my group, on my show, I call it the rubber duck economy.
• 1:02:21
  I tell people they came in, they grabbed the canary in the coal mine and they removed the canary in the coal mine. And what did they do? They put a rubber duck in the cage there. So in the old days, if you were a mining guy, you went into a mining situation. If you saw, if if you saw a, the canary in the, in the coal mine, the cage, like, you know, roll over, it's like, he's, he's not doing so well.
• 1:02:47
  He's dead because they're very sensitive to oxygen. You knew to get out of the mine. There's something wrong here. The canary's dead. That's where that term comes from.
• 1:02:54
  Canary in the coal mine. I call it the rubber duck economy. I tell people right now you're in the mine. You walk by, you see that little rubber duck smiling at you. They, well, everything must be just fine.
• 1:03:05
  The rubber duck's still smiling. You know, everybody's dead. You go by. The rubber duck is still there smiling. The canary's dead.
• 1:03:13
  It's gone. We're looking at a fully managed market right now that is being led up and artificially held up because you look at all the metrics we're talking about. I mean, if everything I'm saying is true, then why isn't the stock market going down? Because the stock market is somewhat of a psychological bellwether for everyone. Well, John, the stock market's not down yet.
• 1:03:35
  Well, gold and silver aren't going anywhere yet. Oh, don't worry when they go, you know, that old saying here, it's better to be an hour early than it is to be a minute late. And that's the way it's going to be in the markets. When the Dow finally goes, you know, it's going to go, we're going to get a 1,200 to 2,000 record drop in the Dow, most likely in October. And this next drop, we get the big flash crash, this is when people are going to wake up and say, oh my God.
• 1:04:05
  But when you get to that OMG moment, it's too late. You're not, you know, that's when, that's, that's another thing too. When the stock market crashed, boy, because I, you know, I was in real estate. I had sold it, got everyone out. Everyone's out.
• 1:04:19
  We're out, we're out, we're And of course my job was, I didn't have a job. I was working for a while. That's how it got me into precious metals. Excuse me, I got some contractors up here working. Hear some noises here.
• 1:04:30
  Seth Holehouse: Oh, I thought maybe you were kind of dancing under the table there.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: Okay. And so now what's happened is this, is when the stock market finally pulled back, when it finally went down, all the loans were called in, people called in their loans, and then what happened? I mean, it was at like the circus came in town. Every single street corner in Newport Beach. I mean, there was like 10 signs on all four corners.
• 1:05:01
  It was a circus. And it got worse and worse and worse. Why? Because what did people do back then, which they're doing now, not as much, is that they were taking out loans based on the value of their stock and securing home loans to secure their homes because that's what they were doing. Once the stock market pulled back, what happened?
• 1:05:27
  The stock went down, boom, margin call. So we have not even seen the margin calls on the people who have secured and leveraged items based on the value of their stock. That is still to come too. That happened last time. That was kind of like the invisible crash.
• 1:05:42
  By the time the market was crashing in, you know, full fledged, you know, wipeout, no, people were basically trying to stay alive, survive, do what they could, but nobody was really listening to the news when it came to the secured loans using assets, you know, your value of your stock. So by holding those stocks up right now, people are feeling comfortable about it. Guess what? They're, they have a, they have a level of security that's not legit. I got roofers here.
• 1:06:09
  They're like ripping the roof off right now. Hope that's not coming in too loud.
• 1:06:12
  Seth Holehouse: It's, it's, it's pretty subtle. I mean, it's okay. The thing is, is that I think people are gonna be so focused on what you're saying that it's not gonna, you know, it's not gonna matter. So it's, gosh, it's crazy. So, so, I mean, you're talking about a six, that's a 60% drop in the Dow, you know, or 55% drop, which gets you from 35 to fourteen, fifteen.
• 1:06:34
  So but what's interesting though, you're you're seeing that it is, it's not just you, a lot, a lot of people I've talked to that I think are much more of the the visionary people. They're not the ones just, you know, that the Vanguard financial planner and so I'm gonna tell you exactly what to believe. They're saying, know, a lot of people are saying that they're gonna see precious metals skyrocket, you know, a common term, a common thing mentioned is silver at 600 an ounce is is very So you think that so it's interesting because in my in my kind of case, you know, I'm I'm I'm probably a representative of like my average audience listener, you know, we're we're, you know, middle class, we're not, you know, we're not like rolling millions of dollars and, you know, buying and selling houses, all kinds of crazy stuff. You know, we we work really hard and and we've saved some money. So, you know, for us, we sold our house, we took out, we had some equity that we had gained on that because the market got better.
• 1:07:31
  And, you know, thankfully with where we're at, we had some improvements. And so my perspective was like, okay, pull out of this asset, which was for us, it was a house. And because we wanted to move anyway, so I mean, look, if I was if that was my house, that was the only place I had to live, I wouldn't just sell it and go rent somewhere and move my whole family to avoid that, you know, I think that wouldn't really work. But for us, it was pull money out of that asset. And right now it's sitting in a bank account because we just got, you know, got paid a week and a half ago.
• 1:07:58
  And I'll probably try to put a lot of that into silver. Right? Just, you know, it's like, okay, safe safe place. So so you think that, like that's really like that's the analogy right now. It's about looking at housing market, stock market, like these things are reaching this they're reaching the the edge of the cliff and they've already started falling, especially the housing market.
• 1:08:25
  And in fact, it's like the housing market has this 10 foot chain that ties it to the stock market. So the housing market goes off the cliff and start falling stock markets are not touched until a chain hits and before you know it, right, it goes with it. So what do you see I mean, amidst this, what do you see precious metals doing? Silver and gold primarily and why? Why do you see that you know, why do you see that outcome that you're gonna be talking about?
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: Out the gate, I expect, straight to $50. I'm expecting, I'm expecting right now a 3 to 5 to $7 1 day move in silver here to the upside. And it may coincide with the price of gasoline moving up 50¢ a dollar in the same, at the same, at the same time. I'm expecting a $3.05, $7 move to the upside, just a big spike. And that's when everyone's going to, the herd's going to panic.
• 1:09:23
  And then you're going to see people roll into silver. But we've got all the demand of solar tech, you know, the the the electrification of America and the demand in solar technology, I think it's, I believe it's bigger when it seems here. We have no major silver fines. Production has gone down here. So we're going to get a super spike in silver and it's going to march up like a soldier and it's not going to slow down.
• 1:09:47
  It's going to go boom, boom. As fast as housing goes down and people are saying down, down, down, down. And people say, is it going to stop? It's like, I don't think so. I don't see it slowing down.
• 1:09:58
  Stock market down, down, down. And silver is going to be up, up, up, up gold, palladium, platinum here. So I expect a move to $50.60 bucks here. Simultaneously it'll be in the news. The gold bugs will be happy.
• 1:10:11
  The silver people will be crazy. You know, the Wall Street silver guys will be crazy. The Wall Street apes, everyone will be going crazy. Oh my gosh, we've been waiting for all this. Then we'll get to $50 and then you're going to see people kind of like dance around.
• 1:10:24
  It might pull back for a little correction, but we're going to bust right through $50, head towards 75. And I don't think we're going to slow down until we get to $2.25, but I think it's gonna, I think it's going to continue because remember we still, the bricks are coming in. We have the rejection of the U S dollar is happening worldwide. And I do believe when the stock market pulls back and the dollar really starts to, I'm sorry, the stocks really start to take off, I think we're going to see countries like China and Russia, they're going to make aggressive moves. They're going to really, okay, let's just really dump, get rid of these dollars, get rid of it.
• 1:10:59
  They're going to be dumping like, you know, so that's, that's a geopolitical outside force that's going be coming out there. We're going to see a lot of military moves from countries that may have scores to settle while America is over there, you know, dealing with its madness there. You're going to see moves being made. We still have a different theaters of operation, the South China Sea, the conflict with China out there. I mean, these things are all, they're ready to go right now.
• 1:11:25
  So in terms of the stock silver moving up here, I think we're going march right on through to 02/25, '3 '20 '5, '4 '20 '5 and 05/25. I think we'll be, I think this is the, my, my mark is the $1,000 silver to $1,200 silver mark. That's what I'm expecting here. If we go with the model of the one to one, one ounce of gold, 15,000, 1 share of the Dow fifteen thousand, they can reset the stock market at 15,000, which means guess what? Housing is 65% down.
• 1:12:00
  Dow Jones, sixty five percent down. Well, let's face it. These are deep state derivative housing number. The bubble in the stock market, it's fake. It doesn't exist.
• 1:12:11
  Just like the prices in housing. People don't realize it's a bubble, man. They created it. Obama came in, saved the market, started printing, and suddenly people got on their knees and said, Oh, this must be real. No, they've been printing the money out here.
• 1:12:23
  When do we find out the derivatives of markets, the market makers have been doing to sustain these markets here? Airbnb was like a blessing in disguise for the people writing derivatives. Cause imagine all those DSCR loans, what they got sold, they got packaged just like Marge, the big shore, boom, you got fricking, Margo Robbie naked in the bathtub again saying, you know, talking about how those DSR loans came back again, big shore part two, and she'll be describing these DSCR loans here. All this is going down and it's going be nothing but upper pressure. And I do believe we're going to see moves by China, India, and other countries.
• 1:13:04
  They're going to go all out and they're going to promote gold and silver because they know we're in a military, we're in a geopolitical arms race right now, economic arms race to get rid of the dollar. The bricks are in there. So they're gonna be making their moves against the United States government, against our economy, against everything. And how are they going to do that? They're going to promote gold and silver, and they're going to go all out here.
• 1:13:27
  Oil making their big moves. I expect, Iraq, the Iraqi Dinar to make a move because because oil is going to be sold in Iraq to China and using the local currency. So we're going to see currency start to move around as the dollar boils up here, but I expect silver to March. I, silver is going to March like a soldier. It's going to go for seven, six, eight, nine years.
• 1:13:51
  Silver's not going to go up and pull back like you've seen. We're going to see something we've never seen. We're going see silver going up like Tesla stock year in, year out going out. Why? Cause the fundamentals are perfect for gold and silver.
• 1:14:03
  How are you going to change that? We got a weakening dollar here. I think we're going to see the Euro is going to completely collapse. The Euro will cease to exist. I will not be surprised if America comes in, pulls the rug out on the Euro and shoves the U S dollar in there just to put a put, I mean, you know, a, a, a bid under the dollar here cause the Euro's collapsing as it is right now.
• 1:14:23
  So we've got some serious, very serious global geopolitical, events coming up. But I see silver marching like a soldier for six, seven, eight, nine years. It's just going to grind and grind and grind up. Just like housing is going to grind down. And like I said, the stock market crashed in 1987 and the bottom of the market didn't come till 1995, '19 '90 '6.
• 1:14:47
  Hence the MBA levels where we're at right now in the market index here. Now go fast forward to 02/2008 stock market crashed in 02/2008 bottom in 02/2009, but we did not hit the bottom in housing until when Fourth of summer, fourth quarter of '20 '12, which is what? Four years later. But the only reason why we hit a bottom is because Obama came in there and he turned on the printing press. If he didn't turn on the printing press, we would have been going all the way down into 2016.
• 1:15:17
  And that's really important to know because there will be no printing press this time around. There's not going to be the bazooka. We're not going to have anyone. What are they going to do? We have, they have the interest, we have the debt, which is what trillion dollars a day or in interest loans, what are you keep printing money?
• 1:15:36
  I mean, are, we are imploding on ourselves and that's why every central bank is just piling into gold. More gold here, more gold. They're repatriating their gold because they know. Those guys are like, man, that Perez guy, we see what he sees. Get more gold, get more silver here.
• 1:15:54
  What are we gonna do? You know? And and, I've saw this the last time. There are so many different pitfalls that people don't see. But then 02/2008, crash, we didn't have the dollar being rejected.
• 1:16:08
  We were thrown out of the Middle East. We've moved soldiers into Yemen. We've moved soldiers into Iraq and to say in a defensive position here. The Arabs are coming together. They're gonna throw out the Americans out of the Middle East to with the dollar.
• 1:16:22
  Out goes the dollar. Out go your troops down because that was a deal that Kissinger made with the Saudis. Hey, we'll give you the protection racket. You sell your oil and dollars. We'll give you a military protection.
• 1:16:35
  Well, fast forward 2023, Ben Salmon's like, not so fast. He fact, he said yesterday, I want security guarantees. Well, what are we going to offer them? We're running out of ammunition doors, sending it over to freaking Ukraine. What are we going to what guarantees we're going offer them?
• 1:16:49
  None. We have nothing. We can we got our border leaking here at the southern border falling apart. We have infrastructure falling apart. We have creditors.
• 1:16:57
  We have homeless people. Hundreds of thousands of homeless. Millions of illegals coming in here. And Ben Salmon, hey, what's my security guarantee? There's gonna be no security guarantee.
• 1:17:10
  And what what's happening right now, they're practicing bombing raids on the Iranian nuclear reactor right now. I'm not kidding you. Right now they're practicing the bombing raids on the nuclear act. Think, well, that'll do to gasoline. We're gonna go to $1.50 per barrel.
• 1:17:25
  Then we're going to $2.20 and JPMorgan. This is not a joke. JP Morgan put out a forecast of $380 per barrel crude oil. That's gonna put us at $16.18, $19.20 dollar gasoline. And of course, these maniacs out there in the climate change world are saying, it's climate change.
• 1:17:45
  It's climate change. You better get an electric car. Know, I like, oh my gosh, you know, I'm gonna get a headache listening to this stuff here. It's we really are in a place where we've never been before. Of course, I research this stuff every single day, so it's on the tip of my tongue, but we're going to see silver March for years.
• 1:18:02
  Silver is going to march like a soldier and it's going back. Think about it like this. We're trading at 45% of our 1980 highs for silver in 1980. Okay? So housing, where was housing at this point?
• 1:18:18
  Housing, you look at where, housing was back then, how it grew, and for some reason inflation never hit silver. Silver magically kind of missed the inflation bullet. Well, guess what? Everything's going to deflate. Everything except silver is going to take off simply because it w silver is like the magic bullet.
• 1:18:38
  It's like you go after a werewolf, you need a silver bullet. You're gonna go, you're gonna go after the banks, you're gonna need silver bullets. You're gonna go after the federal reserve, you're gonna need gold bullets here. And that's why it's kryptonite. They gotta hold it.
• 1:18:52
  They gotta let it go because at this stage of the game, if The United States continues on the pace of trying to hang on to fiat here, sooner or later they're gonna have to say, they gotta go to honest money. Because the whole world will know that America is dying because of dishonest money printing and debt, debt, debt, more debt based system here. Therefore, silver has to march, it will march, it will not stop for years to come. Can it overshoot? I think we can go at, at one to one, down, Dow fifteen thousand, gold at 15,000, they're one to one.
• 1:19:29
  If we are a 10 to one gold to silver ratio, then we're looking at silver at $1,500 an ounce, a gold at 15,000 rounds on a 10 to one ratio with a gold and silver. And then we got the Dow here. I think that, I think to me on paper here, this is one scenario I've gone over this. A $10,000 Dow, dollars 10 thousand gold, dollars 1,000 silver. That's another scenario.
• 1:19:51
  The other scenario is I think realistically $15,000 Dow, dollars 15 thousand gold, and $1,500 silver is a, is a place where governments can sit back and say, you know, because we're going, we're going, we're on the Titanic. There's, we've not been here before. This is new. We're on the USS Dow. The USS Dow Jones.
• 1:20:14
  Not to mention the fact that we are a bankrupt corporation here. We sent all our money to, to, Ukraine, the China in the last forty eight hours. They are just dumping treasuries and they're trading it for gold, trading it for gold. So we really already are in we're like a jet, it's like the old films, know, a B 17 bomber getting hit. It's like slow, looks like slow motion.
• 1:20:38
  That's, that's The US's economy. And it, but nobody wants to admit it. You know, we're ready for my our group, silver is money, we prepared for it, we're ready for it. I was preaching this stuff two years ago. Everyone's ready.
• 1:20:53
  They've got their water. They've got their food. They got their silver. They got their cash. They got their bullets.
• 1:20:58
  They have their god, you know? And they're got guns and gold, man. This is like, this is never happened before. I mean, I'm an Armageddon, you know, researcher here. I'm looking at this.
• 1:21:10
  I was like, this is warm up. It's gonna get a lot worse. It's gonna get a lot worse here. So silver is marching for six, seven, eight, nine years like a soldier. There's no stopping silver.
• 1:21:23
  Nothing's gonna stop a year because it's simply, it's not available. And the minute people realize, you know, when the whole population is panicking, where do I put my money? There's only gonna be one or two places. Gold, silver man. What else?
• 1:21:37
  Seth Holehouse: What's like
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: What else you get? You know.
• 1:21:40
  Seth Holehouse: Cliff High said, Cliff High recently, he said, Silver will become unobtainium. It's like, what's that?
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: Yes. Overnight.
• 1:21:47
  Seth Holehouse: You can't
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: get it. You
• 1:21:49
  Seth Holehouse: won't even be able to get it. And the people that have it won't want to sell it because it's gonna be skyrocketing. So, John, unfortunately, we have to come to a close so I could sit here for another three hours with you and talk this stuff. I want to make sure if folks are on Telegram, your Silver is Money chat is phenomenal. That's, you know, that's where a lot of people can follow you.
• 1:22:13
  I'll make sure I put that link in the description for people, just a direct link to the Telegram channel. That's where I follow you and interact with you sometimes. And it's a wealth of information. So aside from silver is money, telegram, any other places people should be going to look for look for hearing more of you?
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: You know, I I just I have a Rumble channel, so I'm putting some I'm putting select shows on Rumble. I'm at Real John F Perez. John F. My father loved John F. Kennedy, so he gave me my middle initial F.
• 1:22:44
  Real John F Perez. I'm on Instagram, real John f Perez there. And I'm slowly migrating here. So there's gonna be more made for rumble shows on there where Telegram is really raw. This Telegram is rated x adult and adult intellectual nudity on there.
• 1:23:01
  So unleashed on on telegram. Telegram, we have a radical fun channel. I mean, on there. I mean, there's some you have so many fans on my channel. There's a everybody loves Seth on Matt.
• 1:23:12
  So many people have come on board and they've listened in. And, to, you know, to your question regarding silver, I had created a group called the one thousand ounce real estate club, and that is one thousand ounces to join the club. You got to have a thousand ounce physical, you know, theoretically here, the silver gold stockers. And you pick seven properties that you will want to buy when their price goes down 70%. Seven properties minus 70%.
• 1:23:40
  Thousand ounces of silver at a thousand dollars an ounce, that's a million dollar per, That's a million dollars. That means a million dollar property down 70% puts it at 300,000 at a thousand dollars silver. You've got a million bucks. You can grab that property a hundred grand. You've got 700 cash about your tractor, ahead do your homesteading, start your garden.
• 1:23:58
  You got your money in the bank there. And it's a speculative, exercise and it's, and it's, it's a lot of fun though. Silver's money. I'm on telegram. It's great.
• 1:24:06
  Ton of fun here and, unleash too. Got new microphones, new headsets, new cameras going here. I got some new stuff, all kinds of stuff going on. Tons of fun.
• 1:24:16
  Seth Holehouse: A lot of fun. Well, John, it's always good having you on. And we'll have to do an update video probably in two or three months and just see what things are looking like because I think the situation is changing quickly. So thanks again for coming on. You're just I've been following you closely and you're really what is it that someone called you the Nostradamus of
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Mike. Had it. Nostradamus. Crypto Nostradamus. Yeah.
• 1:24:42
  About crypto is a whole another story.
• 1:24:44
  Seth Holehouse: Oh, it's a whole Yeah.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: The regulators are like, woah. So we're if if if we get a 10 a 1,000 or 1,200 or 1,500 crash and you say, Perez, give me an hour notice. I want to get you on a show. Dude, I'll be there. I'll be there.
• 1:25:00
  Seth Holehouse: I'll
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: I'll be there. I feel like a football announcer here. Here we're going down 800 points here. It's like,
• 1:25:07
  Seth Holehouse: Well, John, thanks again, man. It's, it's, it's great sitting down with you.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Great. Thank you, Seth. And so, appreciative to be back on the show again here. Thank you to your audience.
• 1:25:18
  Always have wonderful people here. I've met so many wonderful people that are huge fans of manic. I'm a huge fan. And I love, I love telling people go to man in America, go watch that. Go check out.
• 1:25:31
  He's got some great stuff on there.
• 1:25:32
  Seth Holehouse: I appreciate it. I really appreciate it. Alright, take care, man. Alright, folks, I hope you enjoyed that interview with John Perez. I hope it didn't come across too much as just fear mongering, because I feel like it's just a sober look at what's going on and that's why I wanted to start that discussion with data.
• 1:25:49
  I wanted to show you like these are all the charts and when you see all these charts doing the same thing going up, down, up, down, or you see the spiking spiking like that it indicates that a significant event is is about to happen and I genuinely believe that and you know you heard me talk to him towards the end of the show about our own process of selling our house and you know choosing to put some of our assets into silver. So you know, obviously, talked to Kirk Elliott a lot. And one of the main, you know, affiliates I have is that of gold and silver. And you could say, well, does that make you biased? Of course, you think gold and silver is good and which, you know, I fundamentally do, but look, I would never recommend something to you that I don't personally fully believe in.
• 1:26:35
  And look, I'm in a situation right now, we just sold our house, we've got a little bit of extra money. I'm not gonna go try buy another house, I'm gonna rent for now, but I'm in a situation where I'm saying, look, the only safe place I feel like this money can be sitting is in silver. That's just where, you know, even sitting in the bank makes me nervous, cause we're seeing these bank accounts getting shut down, like, Joseph Mercola and coin dealers. And so that's the last thing I want to have happen is get notification from the bank saying, look, we've shut down your account for whatever reason. So precious metals, I mean, literally for me, that's the safe haven.
• 1:27:10
  I'm not taking any of this money and putting it in the stock market or speculating. I'm just saying, look, if I can just keep it secure in this, that's gonna that's what I'm looking for. Now, what John's talking about also echoes a lot of what other people that I trust a lot have said, in that once the the mechanisms that are suppressing the price of gold and silver are removed, which John says, are the same mechanisms that are holding up the stock market artificially that you're gonna see the price of silver and gold skyrocket. Now, you'll notice I'm not coming on here and saying, Hey, buy silver, it's gonna go up a lot, buy gold, it's gonna go up a lot, because I think that's that's a very tricky sales tactic that I don't want to get I don't want to get pulled into that because for me it's just like, hey, it's safe. That's the key.
• 1:27:54
  But on the flip side of that, if it does go up, like these experts are talking about, then I think that what it does is it, like what I'm looking at it is that it lays a foundation for my children and their children. It just really helps the generations and gives us security in, I think the turbulent times to come. So again, I hope you enjoy the interview with John Perez. He's a riot. He's a lot of fun.
• 1:28:18
  And the guy's he's like in his mid sixties. It's incredible. He just takes such good care of himself. And if you're interested in either buying storeable food or silver and gold, the information is in the description below the URLs. So heaven's harvest for food, promo code Seth, then gold with Seth is where I recommend, you know, look, I've vetted a lot of people, Kirk Elliott, he's a good friend of mine.
• 1:28:41
  And I looked at his pricing, his pricing is fair. It's not a deal, it's not a steal, you don't get that in precious metals. It's a commodity, you can hope for a fair price, and that's exactly what he does in a fair service. So again, that's goldwithseth.com or the phone number (720) 605-3900. Alright, folks.
• 1:29:00
  Enjoy your day. God take care, and God bless.