Latest / Simply Bitcoin / INSIDER CONFIRMS You JUST Missed Your LAST Chance To Buy Under $100k?! | EP 1371
Transcript
- 0:00Yesterday was the second worst day for Bitcoin in 2025.
- 0:04The Bitcoiners. But Bitcoin has already bounced
- 0:07back $5000 since the drop to 98,000 dollar $98,000.
- 0:14Was that your last chance to buy Bitcoin under 100K?
- 0:18Let's hear an interesting framework from this Wall Street
- 0:21insider about the topic. And of course, then me and Opti,
- 0:24we'll talk about it. And the market for sort of
- 0:27crypto native retail is just more depressed than I've ever
- 0:31seen it. I think that market is close to
- 0:33a bottom. It's hard to find a crypto
- 0:35native investor who still has much enthusiasm for the market.
- 0:39I think the market is shifting into an institutionally driven
- 0:43market. And interestingly, that market
- 0:45is still bullish. When I go out and speak to
- 0:48institutions or financial advisors, they're still excited
- 0:51to allocate to an asset class that if you pan back and look
- 0:55over the course of a year is still delivering very strong
- 0:58returns. So my view of the market is we
- 1:00have to get through this retail flush out.
- 1:03We have to hit bottom from a sentiment perspective.
- 1:05I think we're very close to that.
- 1:07And then I'm optimistic that we rally into the end of the year
- 1:11and into 2026 as the institutional investors who are
- 1:15more maybe even keeled about what's going on at a fundamental
- 1:19level in crypto start to drive the market forward.
- 1:22So I'm optimistic, but we do have to finish this wash out of
- 1:25retail sentiment. And again, I think we're closer
- 1:28to the end of that than the beginning.
- 1:30But there, you know, there always could be a little bit
- 1:32more downside. So I mean, this is what we were
- 1:35talking about yesterday, right? And sorry guys, we had a
- 1:37technical difficulty with the first stream.
- 1:39I don't know what happened, but our streaming software has been.
- 1:41It literally kicked us off. We've been having issues the
- 1:43last we. Literally misbehaving the last
- 1:45couple days. So the first version of this
- 1:48show, it literally just ended abruptly while the numbers were
- 1:52climbing. So if you guys are enjoying the
- 1:53show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
- 1:56But the CIO of bitwise is talking about something that we
- 1:59were talking about on yesterday's show, right?
- 2:01Which is again, this is a totally different market.
- 2:04This is not a retail driven market anymore.
- 2:07This is an institutional driven market.
- 2:09And this is actually something I was talking about yesterday in
- 2:12the beginning of the show. I was basically making the case
- 2:14that, look, I talked to someone who has corporate experience and
- 2:18Fortune 500 companies worked there in the 90s and the 2000s.
- 2:22He said, listen, Nico, I, I'm looking at this from an
- 2:24outsider's perspective, from a macro perspective.
- 2:27I'm not a bitcoiner. I don't subscribe to the four
- 2:30year cycle, but I could tell you what it looks like from the
- 2:34outside looking in, right? He says like the the game has
- 2:38changed now that BlackRock is involved.
- 2:40BlackRock is now a buyer of last resort.
- 2:43President Trump's family is involved.
- 2:45President Trump owns the large, the 6th largest Bitcoin treasury
- 2:49company in the game, right? And what I think has been
- 2:52happening over the last year or so is Wall Street is trying to
- 2:57shake you out of your bags with boredom and with fear.
- 3:01So when you see the talk of the tariffs and the markets drop
- 3:04down like 25 to 30 to 40%, you don't think that people that are
- 3:09in the know aren't don't know that that's that announcement is
- 3:12about to be made and the fortunes that can be made with
- 3:15that type of information. You don't know that that you
- 3:18don't think that that's being talked about.
- 3:20You don't think that that's being said or done like this is
- 3:23what Wall Street does. Wall Street has been doing this
- 3:25for so long. They're extremely sophisticated
- 3:28investors. And that has not been the case.
- 3:32Wall Street has not was not involved in Bitcoin before the
- 3:35approval of the ETF, before Michael Sayler's involvement
- 3:38with strategy. And Wall Street was, by and
- 3:41large, ignoring strategy really until 2024, right until, you
- 3:46know, his company literally went parabolic before that, Like,
- 3:49Wall Street pretended like it didn't exist.
- 3:51Like Michael Sayler's strategy went sideways for like 20 years.
- 3:55And then 2020, when he made the first major announcement, he
- 3:58benefited from the first bull market.
- 4:00Then we went into a bear market. Then strategy went down with the
- 4:03Bitcoin price. Sailor paid his price to
- 4:06tuition. And then it's really this bull
- 4:09market. That strategy has proved that
- 4:12the Bitcoin treasury strategy is even viable.
- 4:15And then you started to see a bunch of copycats.
- 4:17And then you had the launch of the ETF in January of 2024.
- 4:21So if you put all of these things together, right, it shows
- 4:26you that the game has changed. This was like the first halving
- 4:28that we made an all time high before the halving even
- 4:31happened. And that was due to the ETF,
- 4:34right? So this is a completely
- 4:36different ball game. And I think this is the thing
- 4:38that Bitcoiners are finally digesting this cycle and coming
- 4:42to terms with the fact that it is a totally different ball
- 4:45game, right? And I think This is why 2025 has
- 4:48caught so many people by surprise is because we were all
- 4:52expecting Bitcoin to perform like it's performs every other
- 4:56cycle. And you know, you could say it,
- 4:58Nico, you're coping or Nico, you're saying this time is
- 5:01different. Fine, I am saying that.
- 5:04But this was the last October, the last October they just went
- 5:07through. This was the first October, the
- 5:10year after the halving that we didn't go up.
- 5:13We had a red October. That never happens.
- 5:17So we're already in uncharted territory now.
- 5:21Not only, you know, not only is Michael Saylor talking about
- 5:262026, not only are the institutional investors talking
- 5:30about 2026, not only, you know, is British Huddle talking about
- 5:342026. We read you a piece that was
- 5:38called the IPO of Bitcoin. Again, this concept that 2026
- 5:45will continue, right? It, it, it, it's, it's not
- 5:52unpopular anymore. It's starting to catch up.
- 5:55It's starting to catch on. And I think that as more time
- 5:59goes by and Bitcoin continues to behave differently, I think
- 6:06there will be more. It's going to catch so many
- 6:09people by surprise that if this time next year, in March of next
- 6:15year, we're not in a bear market, we're actually either
- 6:19either staying the same or actually going up.
- 6:23You know that's a market, right? Like the fact that everyone
- 6:28predicted that 2025 was going to be a bull year, the fact that
- 6:31everyone predicted that Q4 was going to be bullish, the fact
- 6:34that everyone predicted that October was going to be bullish.
- 6:37Like that's not how markets work.
- 6:39Markets do the exact opposite of what everyone thinks and this
- 6:42market is no different. So like digest that idea for a
- 6:46little bit, like could you imagine 2026, March of next year
- 6:50and we're still going up or we're still going sideways.
- 6:53Everyone is going to have no idea what's going on, but the
- 6:56institutions know what's going on.
- 6:58The institutions know there's only 21 million Bitcoin, there's
- 7:03not enough supply to buy if we wanted to.
- 7:07And eventually the math maths, it's Infinity divided by 21
- 7:12million. Eventually there's a eventually
- 7:14the O GS get exhausted. The there's not the O GS don't
- 7:17have more Bitcoin to sell. And then the price runs up.
- 7:22And I think that's what a lot of people are completely unprepared
- 7:25for. They're unprepared for a bullish
- 7:282026. Now, I'm not saying that's 100%
- 7:31going to happen, but I'm saying, but I'm saying that, you know,
- 7:35usually at the tops, a euphoria of a bull market.
- 7:39The last thing that happens is everyone thinks that we're
- 7:43heading into a bear market. Think about the sentiment on
- 7:47Bitcoin Twitter right now. Does that feel like euphoria to
- 7:51you? Does that feel like, Oh my God,
- 7:54we're all going to make it? Even when we hit 126 K, did that
- 7:59feel like euphoria? We we were all still kind of in
- 8:02this disbelief. We were like, yeah, it's all
- 8:05time high. But like, I kind of don't
- 8:07believe it because we've seen this before.
- 8:08We've seen these fake outs before, right?
- 8:11That's not the way it works, right?
- 8:14So of course I could be wrong here.
- 8:16I could just be seeing things and connecting the dots that
- 8:18just are not there. But again, this is my personal
- 8:21opinion. And here's Michael Saylor
- 8:23talking about what he sees is going to happen in the next 4
- 8:27years where the large institutional banks start to get
- 8:32into the game. Now it makes sense why Jamie
- 8:35Dimon changed his tune not too many days ago, right?
- 8:39We played you guys a video. Jamie Dimon was notorious for
- 8:43talking I'll about Bitcoin like he was notorious for it.
- 8:47Like every every press event that he did, you know, they
- 8:51would like the journalist would always egg him on and like throw
- 8:54him a Bitcoin question. He's like, stop asking me about
- 8:56Bitcoin. This last event that he did, it
- 8:59was like a round table. He actually talked positively
- 9:02about, you know, not Bitcoin specifically, but about crypto
- 9:05in general. He says it's not going anywhere.
- 9:07Do you think that's a coincidence?
- 9:08Do you think all of a sudden he's part of a charity?
- 9:11Do you think all of a sudden he's found Satoshi and he's
- 9:13like, oh, I see the light. You know, this money's broken
- 9:16and Bitcoin's going to fix things, and it actually gives
- 9:19the opportunity to the young to make it.
- 9:21No, of course not. He sees an opportunity to make a
- 9:24profit. And that didn't come.
- 9:27That didn't come. And that announcement, that
- 9:31change in tune didn't come too much, long too much after the
- 9:35fact where he basically conceded and he said, you know what,
- 9:39we're going to allow our customers to buy Bitcoin, right?
- 9:43I don't like it, but we're going to allow our customers to buy
- 9:45Bitcoin. Why is he saying that?
- 9:47Because he probably had a lot of customer demand and then all of
- 9:51a sudden when he sees the customer demand and he sees the
- 9:53money that he's making for it, He's the same reason that Larry
- 9:56Fink changed his mind. Do you think Larry Fink changed
- 9:59his mind from calling Bitcoin an index of money laundering to
- 10:02hey, you know what, like preaching Satoshi's gospel to
- 10:06the world and saying, hey, you know what?
- 10:07Bitcoin is a non sovereign alternative to Fiat money.
- 10:11You think Larry Fink is just doing that for, you know, shits
- 10:13and giggles? No, Larry Fink is doing it
- 10:16because the Bitcoin ETF is the most profitable successful ETF
- 10:20launch in human in history. That's why he's doing it.
- 10:23He's doing it because he's looking out for his bags, right?
- 10:26And this is the beauty of bitcoins alignment, alignment of
- 10:28incentives. Now Sailor has another
- 10:30prediction. Now, Sailors been pretty on
- 10:32point with his predictions, his price predictions, we'll put
- 10:36that aside. But his predictions about
- 10:38Bitcoin in general, what was going to happen, the regulatory
- 10:42environment, you know, all these things, Sailors been pretty on
- 10:45point. So in his latest prediction for
- 10:47one of his latest interviews, he's talking about the
- 10:50involvement of the big banks in the United States and how
- 10:53they're going to get involved in the Bitcoin industry, offering
- 10:57Bitcoin custody and actually buying Bitcoin themselves.
- 11:00So let's check out the clip and of course me and Opti shall talk
- 11:04about it like always. You guys know the deal here on
- 11:06Simply Bitcoin, so let's let's line it up.
- 11:08We'll play it and then we'll talk about it.
- 11:11You can imagine that the banks were afraid to get involved with
- 11:13crypto under the previous administration.
- 11:16You know, getting a supportive White House, a supportive
- 11:19cabinet, a supportive head of the Treasury, and then a law
- 11:23that says that it is legal for you to do this, I think was
- 11:26pretty important. Then that has resulted in an
- 11:31avalanche of institutional adoption.
- 11:34And now you have companies like JP Morgan, right, and Bank of
- 11:39America and Wells Fargo and B&Y Mellon and PNC Bank and City
- 11:45that are all announcing their support for this asset class.
- 11:50And if the trillion dollar banks are willing to custody and
- 11:53they're willing to extend credit and they're willing to handle
- 11:56the asset class and they're willing to bank the crypto
- 11:58industry, that's really the necessary condition to 10X from
- 12:03here. Like Bitcoin got to 100,000
- 12:06without their help, but getting to 1,000,000 requires the banks
- 12:10to to bank the asset. And so the next four year period
- 12:14is really about banking Bitcoin and, and the support for digital
- 12:18assets in general by the major establishment of bankers in the
- 12:22United States and everybody else in the world, right?
- 12:26You can imagine the bankers in Australia, Canada, Singapore,
- 12:29the Middle East and Europe, Mexico, Southern, they all
- 12:34follow the US banking standard. And So what you have is an
- 12:38avalanche or a sea change here and the tail, the headwinds have
- 12:42become tailwinds. OK, so that's what got us here.
- 12:45Let's just talk about the short term 2025 year end.
- 12:48Where does it end up because I've heard everything from 100
- 12:51to 200,000. Yeah.
- 12:52Well, the consensus of all the equity analysts and there's like
- 12:55a dozen of them that cover our stock is north of one 5100 and
- 12:5950,000. Our our corporate guidance is
- 13:03targeted at $150,000 by the end of the year.
- 13:07Right. So there you have it.
- 13:09You have Michael Saylor again dropping 150K.
- 13:12That's what he thinks is going to happen towards the end of the
- 13:15year. I don't know if we have enough
- 13:16time to do that. Like we have less than two
- 13:18months. To be honest with you.
- 13:19I think that's an overly bullish target.
- 13:21I mean, could you imagine us telling ourselves that in the
- 13:24beginning of the year? Like I think we would have been
- 13:26a little bit depressed. Thank God we don't know the
- 13:28future, but that's not to say that I think 2026 is lining up
- 13:34to be an incredible year. And I will say this, right,
- 13:38Michael Saylor dropped a lot of of alpha in in that
- 13:42conversation, right? He's saying about look like the
- 13:44regulatory environment has completely changed.
- 13:47These banks now know that if they get involved in the
- 13:51industry, they're not going to be attacked.
- 13:53From a regulatory perspective, the Genius Act, the Stable Coin
- 13:56Act passed not too long ago and the Clarity Act is on the verge
- 14:00of being passed in the not too distant future, right?
- 14:04So banks have clarity, right? It's it's literally the name in
- 14:07the act, right? And they feel like they're like,
- 14:10OK, we're not going to get attacked.
- 14:11From a regulatory perspective, if we start getting involved in
- 14:14the industry, we start offering custody for the industry.
- 14:18And what sailors saying is that that's actually a necessity for
- 14:22Bitcoin to go from $100,000 to the next price, which is
- 14:26$1,000,000, which, you know, I think that's what all Bitcoiners
- 14:31are anticipating, expecting. I hate to use those words, man,
- 14:34because 2025 was the year of Bitcoin taking your expectations
- 14:40and just grinding them into very small particles of Satoshi's,
- 14:45right? And saying I got different
- 14:47plans. But that's how markets work.
- 14:49Like if the mainstream is telling you something's going to
- 14:53happen with Bitcoin, from all my years in Bitcoin, what I've
- 14:56noticed is that Bitcoin does the exact opposite.
- 15:00And I think this time is no different.
- 15:02What I'm paying attention to, what I'm noticing is right now
- 15:07the consensus is 2026 is going to be a bear market.
- 15:11The non consensus is 2026 could actually just keep going and it
- 15:17it could be this weird thing where you don't have this crazy
- 15:21parabola, you don't have this like crazy, you know, 50-60
- 15:27seventy, 80% market drop. It could be this like slow
- 15:32consolidated stairway to heaven, like that's that could be what
- 15:36you're witnessing, right? So it could be that Bitcoin
- 15:38pumps drops 1020%, consolidated a little bit, drops maybe 30%,
- 15:46chop solid 8 for six months and then it pumps up from there.
- 15:49I think that could be the market.
- 15:51I think things have changed since the institutions are here.
- 15:54And you know who got it right? The moment he came on the show
- 15:57and I think we were still in the Nile.
- 15:59Mauricio called it when Mauricio Co founder.
- 16:03And that was like 6 months ago. Co founder of lead and when he
- 16:06came on the show he said look Nico, I think I think things
- 16:10have changed and I'm like, what do you mean things have changed?
- 16:12He's like, look like, I think what you're going to see now,
- 16:14since the institutions are involved is this staircase, you
- 16:19know, up to the moon. You're not going to see this
- 16:22crazy retail driven parabola. And if I were to ask you guys,
- 16:26where is retail? Retail doesn't even know Bitcoin
- 16:28exists right now. Like if you look at the Google
- 16:31Trends, like when was the last time you got into a cab or an
- 16:36Uber and you heard the Uber driver talk about Bitcoin?
- 16:40That hasn't happened to me since like 2017, bro.
- 16:43Right? Hasn't happened to me.
- 16:45So retail doesn't believe Bitcoin exists.
- 16:50Retail got absolutely wrecked with the mean coin mania at the
- 16:53end of last year. And now you have institutions
- 17:00that are slowly, methodically and strategically gobbling up
- 17:05all the supply that's being sold to them by the OG bitcoiners
- 17:11that bought Bitcoin for under $100.
- 17:14And I think that's where we're at right now.
- 17:16But if I were to describe that whole situation to you, right,
- 17:20what I just described to you what what was the essence of
- 17:222025, right? The end of the year could be
- 17:24different, but what was the essence of 2025?
- 17:27If I were to describe that to you, you would say this is this
- 17:32is different. Like we're in uncharted
- 17:34territory. Like Bitcoin is behaving
- 17:36differently. It's not the same as it was
- 17:39before. And I think this is what a lot
- 17:41of us are coming to terms too. Like if you're, you know, a
- 17:45retail individual participant taking buying Bitcoin and
- 17:48putting into self custody, you're looking at it and you're
- 17:50like, you know, what happened to this thing?
- 17:52This used to be fun. Like we can't even be gold, bro.
- 17:56Like Peter Schiff took us out to lunch this year.
- 17:59Like what's going on right? So I think the good times are
- 18:03coming, but I think the institutions need to get their
- 18:06bags packed first before the plane takes off.
- 18:10So anyways, I do want to say hi to everybody smash the like
- 18:14button if you guys are enjoying the show.
- 18:15If you're watching us on YouTube, Brahma, we just broke
- 18:17500 live viewers surprisingly on YouTube because the first stream
- 18:21just got. I don't know what happened over
- 18:23here with our streaming software, but we had to start
- 18:26the stream up over again. So we're back and you know the
- 18:31streaming, you know we're able to make it to 500 live viewers
- 18:34on YouTube, which is always a good sign.
- 18:36Shout out to the Rumble audience as well.
- 18:39I love you guys, appreciate it and of course, shout out to the
- 18:42X audience as well. If you guys are enjoying the
- 18:44show on any of those platforms, including the podcasting
- 18:48platforms, make sure to smash that like button.
- 18:51Give us a follow. Really, really helps with the
- 18:54algos and unfortunately, we're not able to stream to Nostra
- 18:56today. We tried the first time, but
- 18:58then I don't know what happened, so I'm going to pass it on to
- 19:01you my friend. 2 great clips, first from Matt Hogan, CIO of
- 19:06Bitwise and then Michael Saylor. And I don't know if you saw the
- 19:12the lower third of that Michael Saylor clip, but the lower third
- 19:17literally said banking Bitcoin, right?
- 19:20Banking Bitcoin? What taste does that leave in
- 19:23your mouth bro? Like pennies, like a a bunch of
- 19:27dirty pennies in my mouth to to say the least.
- 19:30But I, I really want to talk about the Matt Hogan clip
- 19:33because one, I think this is the general sentiment that we're all
- 19:39feeling right now. Well, actually rewind a little
- 19:42bit from everyone that I've been talking to and I was telling you
- 19:45guys this yesterday. Even the most bullish people
- 19:48that I know right now are feeling as if the bull run is
- 19:52over. As I told you yesterday, you
- 19:54know, even Luke was feeling bearish yesterday.
- 19:57And I was actually feeling kind of bullish because as as I made
- 20:01the case. I think the 50 week moving
- 20:03average is what's holding up the price and as I was I was talking
- 20:06about this on the show yesterday, it was below the 50
- 20:09week moving average. But if you look back at what
- 20:11happened yesterday and the close of it all, the 50 week moving
- 20:14average held it up perfectly. And why am I bringing this up
- 20:17again? It's because it sounds exactly
- 20:21what Matt Hogan said, but in a different kind of respect.
- 20:24The main take away that we've been talking about and kind of
- 20:27relaying to you guys and maybe wrapping our heads around for
- 20:30the last couple of weeks is retail was nowhere to be found
- 20:33in 2025. Obviously retail chases the
- 20:35price pumps, they're nowhere to be found.
- 20:37And you could say that's a few different things.
- 20:39One, Bitcoin hasn't really done anything.
- 20:41And two, I think retail really just has no money right now.
- 20:44I mean it, if we're going to use some examples of where just Main
- 20:50Street is right now, I think looking at to or looking to what
- 20:53New York just did last night is probably a good example of where
- 20:57kind of the mainstream consciousness is from someone
- 21:00that's not in Bitcoin really not traditionally financially savvy.
- 21:04You know, just look at their new mayor and it kind of explains a
- 21:06lot of things. Fiat money, most people are
- 21:09broke right now and they have no excess, excess.
- 21:12Well, so that they're they're basically looking for handouts
- 21:15at this point and so one Bitcoin hasn't done anything We all know
- 21:19retail chases bitcoin's price 2 they don't even have any money
- 21:23to invest in Bitcoin and I think that's like the biggest thing
- 21:26I'll. I'll add to what you're saying,
- 21:28dude, I, I think the result in New York last night, you know,
- 21:32and of course we're talking about Mandami reached winning
- 21:37the election. I think the significance of that
- 21:39is that he was running on a purely socialist platform.
- 21:44Like he openly calls himself a socialist now.
- 21:47You know, there's 100 years of and you guys know we're free
- 21:49market maximalist here at simply Bitcoin.
- 21:52We don't really, you know, throw our hat in the ring politically
- 21:55unless, you know, certain political candidates back up pro
- 21:59Bitcoin policy. Not a big fan of what happened
- 22:02to the samurai wallet developers.
- 22:03So, but again, beggars can't be choosers and politics is messy.
- 22:08But I think one of the reasons as to why Mandami won in New
- 22:13York yesterday and people, you know, forget the lessons of the
- 22:16past and think, hey, you know, let's try this socialism thing
- 22:20is I think he tapped into something specifically in the
- 22:23youth and I think he's absolutely correct.
- 22:26And the, the affordability crisis and the inequality that
- 22:30the that the United States is going through right now, most of
- 22:33the West, like the fact is that if you're a Gen.
- 22:36ZR or if you're a millennial, you can't afford anything.
- 22:40And I think Mandami tapped into that.
- 22:42And I think that's why he won the way he won.
- 22:45Now I think the solution that he has proposed has been tried and
- 22:50tested for over. 100. And for over 100 years and
- 22:55different continents and different countries and it just
- 22:58doesn't work. That's not a good solution in my
- 23:00opinion. But why did he get elected?
- 23:04That's something to pay attention to.
- 23:06And if you're going to these out, like, I'll put it to you
- 23:11bluntly guys, socialism is going to continue to look like a good
- 23:17idea as long as the Fiat money printer exists.
- 23:22As long as there's a central bank, the very idea of socialism
- 23:26seems viable because money comes out of thin air, right?
- 23:31As long as the money is broken, people are going to continue to
- 23:35vote for solutions like Mandami. And I don't blame them because
- 23:40they inherently know that the system is rigged, that the
- 23:44system is broken, that they that it's crazy that they cannot
- 23:49afford anything. Like they 100% are correct about
- 23:53that. Where I think we differentiate,
- 23:55we, we, we differ in terms of our solutions because we've
- 24:00tried Mandami's model for a long time.
- 24:03We've tried it over and over again, always leads to the same
- 24:06results. Like, you know, government run
- 24:08grocery stores, there's no price signals there, right?
- 24:11Like we know what the outcome is like, right?
- 24:15But again, do you blame people? Do you blame people?
- 24:18They can't afford rent? And he's going out there and
- 24:20saying, hey, I'm going to freeze the rent.
- 24:23Of course, like as a young person who can't afford
- 24:25anything, you're going to be like, that sounds like a
- 24:27fantastic idea. Let's effing go.
- 24:31And Mandami could promise all of those things because, again,
- 24:35even if they don't collect enough money through tax
- 24:37revenue, they can just print the difference, right?
- 24:41So of course, he's just going to promise everything, right?
- 24:44And then it gives the illusion that it's free, but it's not
- 24:47free. You're paying through it through
- 24:49currency debasement, which is a form of taxation, right.
- 24:52So anyways, but it it was pretty crazy.
- 24:55Yeah, Yeah. And I mean, but not surprising.
- 24:57It wasn't surprising at all. I mean, I, I wasn't even going
- 24:59to go that deep into it. I was just going to say that it,
- 25:02I think it very clearly explains what the kind of mainstream
- 25:07normie perspective is right now is like one, we're obviously
- 25:10super broke and have no money. And of course we differ on what
- 25:14the solutions to these problems are, but I think it does sum up
- 25:17where the majority of people are.
- 25:18Now, of course, New York isn't the entire United States or the
- 25:22the entire West, but again, they are the, you know, financial
- 25:27capital of the world. They are kind of culturally
- 25:30relevant. And if they're feeling this, of
- 25:32course they they do lean more blue.
- 25:35I think more people are feeling this.
- 25:36Anyways, the reason I was bringing that up is because what
- 25:39we are seeing and connecting this back to Matt Hogan, what he
- 25:41said, I think is the driving factor.
- 25:44Retail is no longer in control for whatever reason you want to
- 25:48pick on. It's the institutions that are
- 25:50here. And if the institutions are
- 25:52here, I've been kind of trolling for the last couple of weeks
- 25:55that look, you, you think the institutions are here and they
- 25:57don't want the games. Like I think they want the
- 25:59games, but before they get to the games, they want to pack
- 26:02their bags and get a good position.
- 26:03And I think this is what's going on, Hence why I was telling Nico
- 26:06to kind of explain this Wall Street analogy that we were
- 26:10talking about before the show or sorry, beginning of the show and
- 26:12then on yesterday's show, because I think this is what's
- 26:15going on and everyone is feeling it.
- 26:17Even the most hardcore people in our chat that were trolling me a
- 26:21couple of weeks ago are like Opti you, you were right.
- 26:24Like I this stable coin all year long going sideways has been
- 26:28pretty brutal, even though all of us view it the same way like
- 26:32we are going to acquire Bitcoin no matter the price.
- 26:34But I think we did have a lot of expectations about what was
- 26:37going to happen this year and none of that came through or at
- 26:40least so far none of it has come true.
- 26:42No one has no idea what's going on and we're like, can we get
- 26:46just some pump in Q4? Which is, which is how markets
- 26:48work, right? Like I think this is like, you
- 26:51know, this is how markets work. Like markets aren't supposed to,
- 26:56you know, not every, the majority of people are not meant
- 26:59to be correct. They're not meant to be right,
- 27:02Right. Like think about every like if
- 27:04you guys have been in Bitcoin for a little bit, like think
- 27:06about every previous cycle for a second, right?
- 27:10Like if you think about 2021 and you think about 2017, in 2017 at
- 27:1720 K, we thought this thing was going to go to 100K back then,
- 27:22right? Like people were piling in at
- 27:24$20,000. Looking back the year after, we
- 27:28were like, dude, like why the why the heft did we do that?
- 27:31Like it was so obvious. This thing was toppy. 2021, you
- 27:35had that similar kind of expectation.
- 27:37People thought Bitcoin was going to go way higher.
- 27:40So what happened? People piled in at 69 K.
- 27:45If you think about this cycle, I'm not getting those same
- 27:49vibes. Like I'm not hearing people
- 27:51saying, oh dude, you know, I'm piling in at a hundred 100,000
- 27:57'cause this thing's going to 500,000.
- 27:59Like people are like reducing their expectations.
- 28:03I I'm not going to name any names.
- 28:04But I'll stand up. Can we just beat inflation at
- 28:07this point? Can we beat the S&P 500I?
- 28:10Saw I'm not going to name any names cause a lot of these
- 28:11people are my friends, but I saw like a predominant analyst who's
- 28:14very well respected in the, in the community and he was like,
- 28:17I'm adjusting my, my price target to 130,000 by the end of
- 28:22the year, right? Like.
- 28:23I think he said 120 from 180 to 120.
- 28:26Is that the same 1 was? It was it I.
- 28:27Could. Yeah, I saw 180 from 180 to 120.
- 28:30I think I saw, yeah, I think it was one, it was something along
- 28:33the lines, but this is what I'm talking about.
- 28:36And and here's the thing, like the markets do the opposite of
- 28:41what the majority thinks, right? And what does the majority think
- 28:44right now? The majority thinks, if you look
- 28:47at your favorite influencers, whatever the majority thinks
- 28:50we're heading into a bear market in 2026.
- 28:54And we could be, we could be. But again, I think that would be
- 28:58unprecedented because I I would say that this entire year was a
- 29:02bear market. Well, well, we're still, we're
- 29:05still green on the year, dude. When Trump?
- 29:08When Trump. OK, fine.
- 29:09Trump's presidency has been a bear market.
- 29:13Trump's presidency has been a bear market.
- 29:15That's a banger tweet. If anyone wants to steal a
- 29:18tweet, there you go. Trump's presidency so far has
- 29:23been a bear market. When he was inaugurated and he
- 29:26launched Trump Coin, Bitcoin price was at 109 K.
- 29:31It's at 104 K right now. Everything else I'm super happy
- 29:37that he kept his promise. Like I'm so team Trump with all
- 29:42the end of Operation Choke Point O freeing Ross Albrecht.
- 29:46I am 100% MAGA in that end, right?
- 29:51But when it. Comes to price action, bro, do I
- 29:56miss Joe Biden bring President Biden back?
- 30:03Because the price action during Biden was like, God damn, bro.
- 30:08We were flying like this rocket ship.
- 30:10We were like, we were taking off, bro.
- 30:14But so far in Trump's presidency, dude, it's not been
- 30:18too good. It's not been too good, man.
- 30:21It's not been too good. 109KA104K today and I'm eleven
- 30:26months older it's true I'm eleven much older so you're
- 30:32right for the year for the year you're for the for the year
- 30:36you're right you're right for the year you're like Nico, we're
- 30:39up for the year you OK fine I'll I'll give you that Optimus
- 30:43fields I'll give you that but for.
- 30:46Chat saying hot take Nico. But for Trump's presidency, I
- 30:51don't know, man. There's a little voice in the
- 30:54back of my head. I'm hearing Kamala Kaklin, and
- 30:58I'm thinking, I'm like, oh, man, why didn't I do that?
- 31:03Wait. Wait, you you know things are
- 31:05bad, Nico. Wait, Nico is is calling Trump
- 31:10bearish. That's how you know the price
- 31:12action's bad. No, someone.
- 31:14Someone in the chat saying Trump took us to 100K though, dude,
- 31:18Trump took office and the price was 109 K Inauguration day.
- 31:22All right, it's at 104 K today and I'm eleven and I'm eleven
- 31:27months older, right? So, you know, that's the only
- 31:32promise. That's the only promise.
- 31:34I, I that I, what I, I listen, I was, I was at the Bitcoin
- 31:39conference. I'll give you guys a little bit
- 31:40of inside baseball. I was at the Bitcoin conference
- 31:43at 2024 in Nashville and we were at the desk.
- 31:47We were at the news desk, you know, the one that that our
- 31:49friends over at Bitcoin mag host.
- 31:52And I remember vividly, like it was like, and this is like when
- 31:55the numbers were high and it was like they got like 1,000,000
- 31:58views off that off that video. And they're like, hey, Nico,
- 32:01like would you want to go on the desk?
- 32:03And I'm like, actually, no, I want to go see Trump talk,
- 32:07right? Like I like like I want to go
- 32:09see Trump talk in the audience 'cause I thought it was a
- 32:12historical moment and you know, I was clapping and I was like,
- 32:15this is fantastic. We survived operation choke .2
- 32:18point O. This is great whoop Dee Doo dah,
- 32:22you know, but he did promise was we were going to go to the moon.
- 32:26So he kept every other promise, but the most important promise.
- 32:32Bitcoin hasn't moved bro. Bitcoin hasn't moved.
- 32:35Nico, Yeah, I got a question for you.
- 32:38Yeah. Are you trusting the plan yet?
- 32:42I don't know man, I don't know dude.
- 32:45I don't know what to believe at this moment.
- 32:47I'm I'm having mixed feelings, bro.
- 32:50I'm having mixed feelings like when I see the price starting to
- 32:54come alive and we get all excited like this last time
- 32:58where we went to 126 K right, The price was coming alive right
- 33:02Opti? We were like, yo bet.
- 33:05You know what you say, Bet. Like that?
- 33:08Big bet. We're going higher.
- 33:10This is fantastic. This is great.
- 33:13Trump goes on Truth Social and he's like 100% tariffs against
- 33:16China. Boom, massive crash.
- 33:21Like at least Biden couldn't even twist.
- 33:27Wait, wait, wait, Nico, are you having fun playing with your
- 33:30bitcoins yet? At least Biden couldn't even
- 33:35tweet bro like, you know, oh. Man, well, you know one thing's
- 33:45changed in 11 months. What?
- 33:47That you can make that joke right now.
- 33:50What do you mean? I'm, I'm not going to rehash it
- 33:52'cause that was a, that was a wild joke.
- 33:55That was a wild. Anyways, let's dude, if you
- 33:58didn't catch it, then we're good to go.
- 34:00If you didn't catch it, then we're good to go.
- 34:01But Sophie caught it. Sophie caught it and anyways, we
- 34:07are 11 months older price of 5K down.
- 34:12I am actually a little more. That was actually that was a
- 34:15great, great, great Nico Jones rant fundament.
- 34:23Wait, get me off screen. Oh man, Nico's a Nico's missing
- 34:35Kamala, apparently. I'm just, I'm hearing, I'm
- 34:38hearing her, her, her cackling in the back, bro, I'm hearing
- 34:41her cackling. Yeah, I I should load it up to
- 34:45the sound. Anyway, Nico, let's keep it
- 34:47going. We've been going kind of long.
- 34:49People are loving it. They're like, this is a comedy
- 34:51skit. It is a comedy skit anyways.
- 34:53Of course we love the Trump administration.
- 34:55I think what they've done for Bitcoin has been fantastic.
- 34:57And of course, just the Republican Party has had a more
- 35:00pro Bitcoin, you know, policy. Of course the price has been
- 35:04disappointing and you know, that's that I'm looking at it
- 35:08like that. But of course, I'm just speaking
- 35:10my mind. This is why you guys tune into
- 35:12the show, right? To get entertained.
- 35:13Are you not entertained? I wish I had the gladiator meme
- 35:17playing right now. But anyways, let's see as we
- 35:20head into the midterms next year, you know, 2026 is a
- 35:23midterm year. It's very important guys that
- 35:26you support pro Bitcoin candidates, anti CBDC
- 35:30candidates, regardless of political party.
- 35:33Now, as things stand, you know, it's it's it's a little bit
- 35:36partisan right now, but you know it Hopefully that things those
- 35:40things change into the future. Anyways, guys, before we move on
- 35:44to the rest of the show, I do want to give a very special
- 35:48shout out of course, to our lead sponsor.
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- 36:52All right, everybody, no more to lay.
- 36:54Let's jump straight into the show.
- 36:55We have tons to talk about today.
- 36:57We're going to be right back in just a bit.
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- 38:18All right everybody, we are back.
- 38:21At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $104,060.
- 38:25Block height 922,353 market cap 2.08 trillion Bitcoin versus
- 38:33gold market cap 7.73%. We just broke 104 K Fantastic
- 38:40decline from all time high -17.5%.
- 38:45In the grand scheme of things, it's not too bad.
- 38:48It's a 20% dip. Feels like the Sky's falling.
- 38:52Dude, it's a dip for ants. Come.
- 38:54On it's a dip for ants Anyways, so before I went into full
- 38:59Kamala mode in the beginning of the show, jokingly cause 2025
- 39:04has been a sideways here. You know, I do want to give a
- 39:08shout out again to, you know, I, I think that this year from a
- 39:13regulatory perspective and it has been bipartisan.
- 39:17I do have to give credit where credit is due.
- 39:19The genius act and the the clarity Act, of course, majority
- 39:25were supported by Republicans, but there were Democrats that,
- 39:29you know, supported both those bills.
- 39:30So both those bills actually have bipartisan support, which I
- 39:34think is extremely important, right.
- 39:36So I have to give credit where credit is due.
- 39:38But anyways, I do want to give a shout out to the Bitcoin
- 39:41senator, Senator, Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and I
- 39:47want to play you guys this clip that she did recently.
- 39:52There's been some discussion about converting some of the US
- 39:55government's gold holdings into Bitcoin.
- 39:57Have you seen it? Any traction on that?
- 40:00I have not. I think the administration is
- 40:04looking at ideas other than using our our gold certificates,
- 40:10marking them to market, and then converting them to Bitcoin.
- 40:14There are other ways to have a strategic Bitcoin reserve other
- 40:19than converting our gold certificates.
- 40:21And so Secretary Besant, Treasury Secretary, is looking
- 40:25at those matters as well as the folks at the White House.
- 40:29I'm glad they're embracing the notion of a Bitcoin strategic
- 40:34reserve. It's an asset that will grow
- 40:37over time and help offset the burgeoning growth in our
- 40:42national debt. So.
- 40:52Did you call me all that? 10 man.
- 40:56But no, I mean it's I'm making I'm I'm cracking jokes, guys.
- 41:01I'm cracking jokes. I'm cracking jokes because 2025
- 41:06has been, you know, at least if the price were going down, we
- 41:09would feel something, right? Dude, I felt something
- 41:12yesterday. You felt alive.
- 41:14I felt alive again, dude. I like volatility at least.
- 41:17At least it's not just sideways action.
- 41:20We felt something, remember, We wanted volatility.
- 41:23We weren't specific on which way it was going to go.
- 41:27Actually posted about that the other day.
- 41:28I said, dude, we got a, we got a 10K candle.
- 41:32It just went the wrong way. It just didn't go the way we
- 41:35wanted it to. We got a 10K candle.
- 41:37It just went the, IT just went the opposite direction, so.
- 41:41It's someone in the chat. Quit doing that.
- 41:45So no, I mean, look, Senator Lummus has been fantastic.
- 41:49I absolutely love her, support her office and what she's done.
- 41:53What she's done for the Bitcoin movement in the United States
- 41:55has been incredible. You know, she, she, she was, she
- 41:59joined the, the Senate Banking Committee, which I think was a
- 42:02huge, huge deal. I got to had the honor of being
- 42:06able to interview Senator Lummus in, in, in DC earlier this year.
- 42:11So, yeah, I mean, I think what she's doing is fantastic.
- 42:14But again, I think it was expectations.
- 42:16I think the keyword here is expectations, right?
- 42:21I think that 2025 was the year of humbling expectations right?
- 42:25Now, to be to be fair again, we did get so much positive
- 42:30executive executive orders coming out of the White House,
- 42:36out of the Trump administration, freeing Ross, which is
- 42:39fantastic, ending Operation Choke .2 point O.
- 42:42Finally, I actually have a clip from the White House press
- 42:45secretary. And so the president is
- 42:48correcting that wrong, and he has officially ended the Biden
- 42:51administration's war on the cryptocurrency industry.
- 42:54And I think that's the message he sent with this.
- 42:55Pardon, Karen. Yes, I'm back on.
- 42:58So again, you know, pardoning a lot of of executives from the
- 43:03industry from from CZ to Arthur Hayes.
- 43:07So again, I, I think, you know, I think, I think it, it's been
- 43:11extremely positive and much better to where we were last
- 43:15year, where we literally felt like our industry was under
- 43:18attack. Opti and I were seriously
- 43:20considering moving to El Salvador because things are
- 43:23getting dark. And I, I could even make an
- 43:26argument that their stance, and I'm not the first one to say
- 43:29this, I think their stance towards Bitcoin, I think might
- 43:34have cost him an election, to be honest with you.
- 43:36Because Trump was able to build a coalition, including some ex
- 43:41Democrats like Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Junior that I don't think he
- 43:44would have ever built, you know, in normal circumstances.
- 43:48So I think he was able to get some voters that normally
- 43:52wouldn't vote in that direction because, you know, the the
- 43:57hostile stance towards the industry that happened last
- 44:00year. Now, I think what is yet to be
- 44:04determined is whether, and I mean, we, we do see some
- 44:09positive development here right from, you know, from Democratic
- 44:14Party with these by part with the bipartisan support of these
- 44:18last two bills. So I, I think that that's
- 44:21definitely a step in the right direction.
- 44:23But again, one of the most trouble, one of the, one of the
- 44:25most worrying things for me was there was a bill that would
- 44:29specifically ban CBD CS and the bill was voted like it, it, it
- 44:35went, it went across party lines.
- 44:38So you had the majority of Republicans voting for the bill
- 44:42that would ban the federal government from launching ACBDC.
- 44:45And then you had the majority of Democrats voting for the bill,
- 44:49voting against the bill that would ban the federal government
- 44:52from launching ACBDC and a single issue voters here, it's
- 44:55simply Bitcoin. All jokes aside, right?
- 44:58You want to support politicians in your country that are pro
- 45:03Bitcoin, anti CBDC, because that is the future at hand.
- 45:06The future at hand is a a Bitcoin future or a central bank
- 45:10digital currency future. There is no in between.
- 45:13They're trying to get rid of cash and you have to decide on
- 45:16which side you stand, right? So I know that Fiat politics is,
- 45:20is, you know, it pushes away a lot of Bitcoiners.
- 45:23But during this transitionary period, I think one of the
- 45:27things that we've learned as a community, as a movement is
- 45:31that, hey, if we come together, we actually make a very, very
- 45:36powerful voting bloc. And that's how we were
- 45:39ultimately able to get Ross Ulbricht free.
- 45:42So Opti, I know we're running long.
- 45:43I'm, I'm ranting today for some reason.
- 45:47What are your thoughts on this? We could actually continue this
- 45:50conversation. We could do a a quick break
- 45:52we're gonna do. A quick wait, wait, wait.
- 45:53I, I, I don't, I'm, I don't have much to say on this, to be
- 45:55honest. I, I think if you look at the
- 45:58clip on itself on the surface, obviously extremely bearish
- 46:02considering that we were all told and SBR is coming and the
- 46:05fact that Senator Lummis is like, there's nothing's been
- 46:08going on, though. I think the more bullish take on
- 46:11this is they are looking at other ways to figure this out.
- 46:15Maybe they will eventually scrap the budget neutral kind of
- 46:19handcuffs there. And I, I have AI have a very
- 46:22easy way for them to do this. It's not going to be really
- 46:24beneficial for the American public, but I would love to see
- 46:28a capitulation where the Fed just prints money to buy
- 46:30Bitcoin. I mean, very easy solution here.
- 46:33You print money for other things.
- 46:34Let's let's let's just get it over ways.
- 46:36RIP the Band-Aid. I.
- 46:37Think that's what Michael Saylor said needed Like the first
- 46:40country that did that would win by default, right?
- 46:43He said. The first country.
- 46:44Are you tired of winning yet? I am tired of this winning.
- 46:47Yeah, for sure. I don't know what winning.
- 46:50I mean again, dude, it's so like, there's nuance to that
- 46:54question. That's an unfair question like.
- 46:57Are you winning, son? Like we are winning from a
- 47:00regulatory perspective from not being witch.
- 47:03Hunting. Somebody's giving me the eyes of
- 47:04it. From from my wife is just saying
- 47:07no. She's not she's she's tired.
- 47:10She's not. She's tired of not winning are.
- 47:13You are you team Kamala 20280 she.
- 47:16She wow, she said. Yes.
- 47:18Oh no, she's not. She's just kidding.
- 47:22She's just kidding. So it it's so crazy what it
- 47:26boils down to. It's like number go up.
- 47:29Hey, I vote for anyone to pump my bags.
- 47:32If we if we if we learned anything from the New York
- 47:35election, I will vote for anyone to pump my bags.
- 47:40Anyways, guys, we're going to be right back in just a bit.
- 47:41We're going to hit the new segment.
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- 50:20Hi everybody, we are back. I do want to give a shout out to
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- 50:59OK anyways, back to the show. So bro, I do want to talk about
- 51:08some things during the news segment today.
- 51:11This is why you guys have tuned in.
- 51:14So let's start off with this Eric Bakunas.
- 51:17Even with the pullback, Bitcoin is up 300% since BlackRock filed
- 51:22for an ETF 30 months ago. That's nearly 80% annualized.
- 51:27Relaxed, right? And of course, it's coming after
- 51:29the drop. Josh Mandel prophetic post.
- 51:34People think that all of this was a mistake, an error, not
- 51:38possibly planned market manipulation, right?
- 51:43And of course he's reposting Adam Livingston, who's saying
- 51:46the entire $2.5 trillion wipeout happened because two world
- 51:50leaders can't read. Trump misread export controls as
- 51:54export ban. She thought tariffs meant trade
- 51:57deal. Billions in liquidations.
- 51:59Lives ruined. And Josh Mandel said people
- 52:03think that all this was a mistake and error, not possibly
- 52:05planned market manipulation. Again, this is what I was saying
- 52:08in the beginning of the show. Pay attention, ladies and
- 52:11gentlemen. I get it.
- 52:12We're an entertainment show, but we do drop some signal while we
- 52:15entertain. He said, OK, so when it happens
- 52:19again in the first week of November, don't have a heart
- 52:24attack, please. That came out October 12th.
- 52:29Boy oh boy, did he have another call.
- 52:32He called it, did he not? I don't like this call as much.
- 52:36He called it. He called it and it and it goes
- 52:39back to what I was saying, man, like you don't think Trump and
- 52:45she some of the most the smartest powerful people in the
- 52:49world, misinterpreted some words and then the market slipped
- 52:582030% and you're trying to tell me that Barron Trump wasn't on
- 53:05his platform of choice just they're like.
- 53:08Hyper liquid. He's the hyper liquid whale.
- 53:12Oh, Dad's about to tweet short. Are you telling me that's not
- 53:18happening? Like, you know, again, put on
- 53:23your big boy pants. I think that's exactly what's
- 53:25happening. I think they're wait, what was?
- 53:29I think they're trying to shake you out.
- 53:30I think they're trying to shake you out, in my opinion but
- 53:33anyways. No, without a doubt.
- 53:34But wait, Josh Mandel called the November 1st week of November
- 53:37drop. It's what it just said.
- 53:39In the middle of October. OK, OK, I missed that part.
- 53:43In the middle of October, he predicted the the drop because
- 53:47he said I wouldn't be surprised if the Trump administration said
- 53:50something again that would make the price to fall now.
- 53:54Not much of A prediction bro. He's wild with them tweets.
- 53:57With with all that being said, I'm I do want to end it with a a
- 54:02positive note because we weren't promised a Bitcoin age, but we
- 54:10were promised a golden age and gold has been having its age.
- 54:14Here's we really got to take. It along with Wall Street.
- 54:17Here's Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, who's an absolute Chad
- 54:23who wished Bitcoin happy birthday the other day, posted
- 54:28on his X handle and everything, and he's saying, look, you know,
- 54:33America's golden age is coming. Now, does that include Bitcoin
- 54:37or does that only include gold? I don't know, but I'll play you
- 54:40guys a clip and of course me and Opti shall talk about it.
- 54:45I think next year we're going to go back to what we had in
- 54:48President Trump's first term, which was very solid high, not
- 54:52inflationary growth. So we're going to see very
- 54:56strong job growth. And Jesse, I think we're going
- 54:59to have what I call parallel prosperity.
- 55:02Main Street can do well. Wall Street can do well.
- 55:05It's been a long time since Main Street's done well.
- 55:07And that's what happened in Trump. 1.0 hourly workers did
- 55:12better than supervisory workers. The bottom 50% of households had
- 55:16a net worth increase. It was higher than the top 10%.
- 55:20So we are going to see Main St. surge here along with Wall
- 55:23Street, which we've already seen.
- 55:25So I think it's going to be a great year next year.
- 55:28I think inflation's going to come down.
- 55:30You know, we're seeing gasoline prices come down.
- 55:34We're seeing we should see interest rates come down, which
- 55:37will help the housing market. Now I cut out the last part of
- 55:40that where he says and Bitcoin's gonna absolutely RIP.
- 55:45Yeah, I totally missed that part.
- 55:46I'm. Kidding.
- 55:47He didn't say that. But all those other things are
- 55:49extremely good. That's extremely good.
- 55:52And it actually confirms the theory about an extended bull
- 55:56market into 2026. And I wouldn't even call it an
- 56:00extended bull market 'cause if you call it an extended bull
- 56:03market, it makes it seem like an extended bull market is out of
- 56:07the abnormal. But I remember British Hodl
- 56:09talking about this. He's like Nico, we only have
- 56:11three data points to go out to go off of.
- 56:14Like we've only really had three cycles, man.
- 56:16Like. I've been saying.
- 56:17That too. You're you're you're really
- 56:18gonna go off three data points to say that these cycles are
- 56:21like, you know, a lay of the land, right.
- 56:25So I think that was a really good point as well.
- 56:27Now if Scott Besson is feeling very optimistic about the next
- 56:31year, specifically for Main St. and gold had a run, I wouldn't
- 56:38be I saw Larry Leopard not too long ago in in in Canada at the
- 56:43Canadian Bitcoin conference and he's like Nico, I'm feeling so
- 56:46bullish right now. I'm like Larry, like why do you
- 56:48think that He's like because the way that gold ripped was
- 56:52absolutely crazy. And if you take a look at the
- 56:58gold's to BTC chart, which I think is incredibly important to
- 57:04look at, take a look at this. So if you look at the gold to
- 57:10Bitcoin chart, Bitcoin really hasn't made an all time high in
- 57:17gold terms. Can you zoom in a little bit?
- 57:20Is it possible? Yeah, I just don't want to ruin
- 57:22it. That's what happened.
- 57:23Totally ruined it. I'll I'll zoom.
- 57:25There you go. I'll zoom in with my screen.
- 57:28So Bitcoin hasn't really made all time highs in gold terms,
- 57:33right? And gold terms, it's basically
- 57:37gone sideways since 2021, right? So this is what I'm looking at.
- 57:43This is really what I'm looking at, right?
- 57:45Like, unless we do this, Peter Schiff just going to make fun of
- 57:48us the entire time. So this is what I'm paying
- 57:52attention to. I think bitcoins going to do it
- 57:55sooner rather than later, but we'll see.
- 57:59We're going to have to wait and see.
- 58:01But Treasury Secretary feels good and also they have the
- 58:04pressure of the midterms. Like if the economy isn't doing
- 58:07good for for Main Street next year.
- 58:12The repubs after last night. I don't know if you saw the Poly
- 58:15market odds bro no. It didn't.
- 58:19It dropped 15% that the odds that the, the Repubs keep the
- 58:26House in 2026 after the, the, the election results last night,
- 58:31right? So I think that puts a lot of
- 58:33pressure on the Trump administration to really do good
- 58:37by Main Street so that Main Street feels motivated to get
- 58:42out to vote and, and, you know, let the Republicans keep the
- 58:46House, right? So, you know, I'm putting two
- 58:49and two together, right? I think like this, this crazy
- 58:52choppiness of these crazy 'cause if you, if you take a look at
- 58:56the last two crazy Bitcoin corrections, the one that
- 59:00happened over the summer and then this last one, they all
- 59:03happen because of Truth Social Post, right?
- 59:07So, and, and then Josh Mandel is like cryptically saying some
- 59:11things and he's prophetically, you know, pointing out some
- 59:13things, I mean. He got lucky twice.
- 59:18He just. Got lucky twice, right?
- 59:21No, but I mean, to your point, look, personally, when I hear
- 59:26Scott Beston talking, well, rather in that clip, 'cause I, I
- 59:30think they do project and Telegraph a lot of the moves
- 59:32that they're going to make. I think in that clip in
- 59:35particular, and, and maybe I'm wrong, it does seem like it
- 59:39sounded like a hope that's what they want to happen.
- 59:42Now, will the markets and the interest rates and liquidity
- 59:47respond in a way that they want to happen?
- 59:51I think is is really the big question as everyone's been kind
- 59:54of asking themselves this year, considering all the things we've
- 59:58seen. The the big question I think
- 1:00:01most people should be asking themselves are do they actually
- 1:00:03have the mechanisms to control the markets like they think they
- 1:00:06do? It does seem like they they are
- 1:00:09trying to rein in the beast. Now the real question is will it
- 1:00:14react in the way that they wanted to?
- 1:00:16Now, one of the things he did say that I found very
- 1:00:19interesting was when he correlated this to what happened
- 1:00:24in the last Trump administration, which is
- 1:00:27actually true that Main Street and Wall Street, you know, with
- 1:00:32your average person or if you were a wealthy person, like you
- 1:00:35were better off. And I have a very like
- 1:00:37particular conversation in mind where I was talking to my mom
- 1:00:41and she's not very politically savvy.
- 1:00:43She just kind of follows the narratives around Trump and she
- 1:00:46was kind of being very, very bearish on Trump.
- 1:00:49And I obviously, I, I wasn't like, yeah, we're pro Kamala
- 1:00:54here, but my mom kind of was obviously, or maybe not so
- 1:00:58obvious, but you probably know the reasons why.
- 1:00:59Anyways, we both agreed on one thing.
- 1:01:02And when my mom agreed to it, it made me think like, oh, OK, you
- 1:01:06know, she's not totally lost in the sauce and there is some
- 1:01:09reason that can get through to her.
- 1:01:10And, and it was exactly that point that, yes, the economy was
- 1:01:14better for everyone in the Trump administration before the Biden
- 1:01:17administration. So she conceded to that point.
- 1:01:20So I do think they have it in them to figure it out now.
- 1:01:23I'm just wondering whether they'll be able to.
- 1:01:25It does seem like a lot of the things that the Trump
- 1:01:27administration has been doing is like kind of clearing house and
- 1:01:32prepping for what's to come. But like you're saying, Nico,
- 1:01:35you know, the midterms are coming up very soon.
- 1:01:38So they're going to have to most likely make some drastic moves
- 1:01:44to get people on board, especially if you're seeing
- 1:01:46those, what was it polling market odds where, where they're
- 1:01:49losing support right now. So it's really up to the Trump
- 1:01:52administration or rather the Republicans right now.
- 1:01:55Like it's, it's theirs to win or lose at this point, I think.
- 1:01:58And if there is, as someone said in the chat, and I, I kind of
- 1:02:02totally agree with this. I did troll about this a minute
- 1:02:04ago, but like, what are they doing for our bags here?
- 1:02:08Like what are we benefiting here?
- 1:02:10And until we can materially see the benefit, then they have an
- 1:02:14uphill battle. So I do think they are doing a
- 1:02:17lot of things economically that is shaking the board around and
- 1:02:21it, it could positively affect all of us in in the best way
- 1:02:25possible. But it who knows exactly what's
- 1:02:27going to happen here. I think that's kind of like the
- 1:02:30big question. There's still time left in this
- 1:02:33year. Obviously, they're going to have
- 1:02:35at least part of 2026 to kind of, you know, get their stuff
- 1:02:39together before the whole midterm campaigning starts to
- 1:02:44get into OverDrive. So I think there's still some
- 1:02:46time. I I think there's some time for
- 1:02:47them to figure it out. But yeah, Scott Besson is
- 1:02:50actually Nico, you know, an interesting metric that I saw
- 1:02:53the other day. And I, I didn't double check
- 1:02:56this yet and I don't have it for the receipts for you guys.
- 1:02:59But I did see that Treasury cash, it's finally higher than
- 1:03:04Fed balances here. So it does look like the move
- 1:03:08of, remember, we've been covering the war kind of between
- 1:03:12Trump and Jay Powell. It's really, you know, Scott
- 1:03:15Besson versus Jay Powell. And it does look like Treasury
- 1:03:19is getting the Federal Reserve under control, or rather maybe
- 1:03:24claiming their dominance here. Again, Treasury cash for the
- 1:03:27first time in a very long time is higher than Fed balances
- 1:03:31here. Now, I know they're doing crazy
- 1:03:33stuff in the repo market, so they're going to add liquidity
- 1:03:35into the system. So that could change.
- 1:03:37But it does seem like they are reordering the chess book, the,
- 1:03:41you know, the, the chess match here.
- 1:03:44So maybe, maybe they can pull it out and, and everyone will
- 1:03:47benefit from this now. I think it'll be a like a
- 1:03:49Herculean effort, but I want to see everyone do better.
- 1:03:53I I'm not really on any party lines here, I just want to see
- 1:03:56everyone do better. I, I think we all want that,
- 1:03:59man. I think we all want that.
- 1:04:01I think, you know, I think Bitcoin gives people that
- 1:04:05ability without having to pick a side.
- 1:04:09I think both sides inherently do the same thing.
- 1:04:12Elon, I think went in there and try to fix it and he wasn't able
- 1:04:17to just because I think the system is so used to the money
- 1:04:21printer. Now, all that being said, again,
- 1:04:24I like you know, and I told this to Opti for a long time, like
- 1:04:28you really have two choices in the US because it's a two party
- 1:04:31system. So you obviously want to pick,
- 1:04:34you know, the side that is is better for your for, you know,
- 1:04:38for what you want. Obviously, as Bitcoiners, we
- 1:04:40wanted a positive regulatory environment.
- 1:04:43I think the Trump administration has come through and the
- 1:04:46Republican Party has come through on that front.
- 1:04:48I think the only missing element that me and Optia have been
- 1:04:51joking about for like more than half the show is like, all
- 1:04:54right, but like you guys did all this fantastic stuff, but you
- 1:04:58literally forgot the most important part, which is number
- 1:05:01go up, right? So, you know, of course, we've
- 1:05:05been kind of like half joking. And, you know, obviously the
- 1:05:09Trump administration isn't completely responsible for
- 1:05:12number going up. But those true social posts
- 1:05:16aren't really helping with 100% tariff announcements, right?
- 1:05:21But again, I think eventually, as the pressure comes from the
- 1:05:25midterm year coming, I think that they're incentivized for
- 1:05:29Main Street to to do really well and for Wall Street to do well,
- 1:05:33like all sectors of the economy have to be doing well for the
- 1:05:36Republicans to even stand a chance at keeping the House next
- 1:05:40year. And after last night, after the
- 1:05:44blue wins in Virginia and New York City and New Jersey, you
- 1:05:50know, I think that's a, that's a, that's a shot across the
- 1:05:53ballot. That's a, that's a warning sign.
- 1:05:55Like take this seriously, right? So, you know, at the end of the
- 1:05:59day, human beings are creatures of incentives and let's see what
- 1:06:03happens. But my, my personal opinion is I
- 1:06:06think 2026 could surprise everybody.
- 1:06:10I could be totally wrong. And in two or three months we
- 1:06:13could be. But that's been our, the story
- 1:06:15of the show this entire year, bro.
- 1:06:17Just we've been just talking about the vibes and the current
- 1:06:20moment. I think that's all you have.
- 1:06:22You all. All you have is the present,
- 1:06:23right? What is the source?
- 1:06:25My vibes. Vibes, vibes, vibes, simply
- 1:06:29vibes. All right, everybody, we're
- 1:06:31going to get to the culture. I feel like this entire show was
- 1:06:34the culture, so I don't even know how the culture could one
- 1:06:37up this entire show so far, but I'm excited to see what Opti has
- 1:06:41cooking. Let's check it out.
- 1:06:43We're going to be right back in just a bit.
- 1:06:46Now I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive digital
- 1:06:49technology. Why Hive in 2025, unstoppable
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- 1:07:31I want to give a shout out to our partner Bitcoin Ben dot IO.
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- 1:08:42freedom. All right, everybody, we're back
- 1:08:49and it seems like our theater crew was watching the show.
- 1:08:52What's this? I can't read it.
- 1:08:54Let me hold on. I got to change the let me make
- 1:08:56it full screen. Let's let's see that so.
- 1:09:02I. Closed my shorts.
- 1:09:03Yeah. Baron Trump's open a 200 inch
- 1:09:07long. Baron, I closed my shorts open a
- 1:09:09200 inch long. Liquidate the bears, Father
- 1:09:11Trump. Beautiful.
- 1:09:12Nobody longs like we. Oh my God, that's hilarious.
- 1:09:19So anyways, Opti floor is yours. What's the culture?
- 1:09:23Well, I I think I don't. Know how you're going to one up?
- 1:09:25Honestly, I'm not I I really can't.
- 1:09:27I don't know. Should we just keep the?
- 1:09:28Pants with Kelly. I really can't one up this dude,
- 1:09:33but we do have a kind of a continuation of a lot of the
- 1:09:36stuff I've been showing you guys on the show.
- 1:09:39Cena dropped this. I don't know if you guys follow
- 1:09:41Cena. So the the culture has become
- 1:09:44the macro. Dude, I'm it's, it's macro Opti
- 1:09:47hour, the macro, macro, macro Opti 15 minutes.
- 1:09:53But I think this is showing a lot of strength in the market.
- 1:10:00I know we've really been joking about the fact that the Bitcoin
- 1:10:02price has been going sideways for so long and everyone's just
- 1:10:06kind of wanting to see it go up. But I think we're under
- 1:10:10estimating just like how strong the market has been structurally
- 1:10:14considering there's been, I don't know, like it seems like
- 1:10:18millions of coins hit the exchange this year from O GS
- 1:10:22selling, maybe rotating into ETFs, JPMorgan collateral type
- 1:10:27products, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
- 1:10:30I think the fact that we saw this much movement from the
- 1:10:34quote UN quote long term holders is really showing us the
- 1:10:38strength of the network and and remember going back to that IPO
- 1:10:42article, it is showing that there is a distribution going
- 1:10:46on. So I want to read a little bit
- 1:10:47and goes last week we wrote that during this period, the long
- 1:10:51term holder supply declined from 15.95 million Bitcoin to 15.05
- 1:10:56million Bitcoin, reflecting a net decline of 900K Bitcoin.
- 1:10:59This contraction shows that selling activity has outpaced
- 1:11:02new coin maturation, signaling that OG investors are still
- 1:11:05realizing profits rather than rebuilding positions.
- 1:11:09The magnitude of the cell pressure is comparable to that
- 1:11:11of previous distribution wave observed in December 2023, April
- 1:11:1522 April 2024 and October 2024 to March March 2025.
- 1:11:19Notably, the downtrend has yet to stabilize, suggesting that
- 1:11:23selling momentum may persist in the short term, but a healthier
- 1:11:26structure would require long term holder supply to flatten
- 1:11:28making a balance phase for consolidation.
- 1:11:31Until then, downward pressure is likely to suppress any sustained
- 1:11:34uptrend. So that's probably what we saw
- 1:11:36yesterday. Obviously, you've seen these
- 1:11:39kind of things play out in the past is where we've gone
- 1:11:43sideways for so long and we are currently in one now.
- 1:11:47Again, I think what we're looking at is wondering like how
- 1:11:51much more selling can actually take place and at what point
- 1:11:56does the buying pick up so that it absorbs this.
- 1:11:58But remember you got to with a seller, there is a buyer here.
- 1:12:02So the fact that we have been able to maintain above 100K this
- 1:12:05long, I think it's showing that there is this unlimited bid
- 1:12:08which Nico and I have been talking about of Wall Street,
- 1:12:10this institutional, very slow methodical buying opportunity
- 1:12:15here. And it's not as sexy as we're
- 1:12:17used to. It's not as explosive.
- 1:12:20But the fact that we're seeing this much coin hit the exchange
- 1:12:24is just showing, showing us that there is this unlimited bid
- 1:12:27right now. Remember, Nico, do you remember
- 1:12:29the bear Bear. Well, back in the day, yeah.
- 1:12:31Of. Course.
- 1:12:33Do you remember the number of coins that he sold during that
- 1:12:36time? No.
- 1:12:37It was like 30,000 coins, 30,000 was the biggest and that was the
- 1:12:42biggest at the time, which really goes into this IPO moment
- 1:12:45where someone with billions of dollars can actually exit their
- 1:12:49position without taking the market.
- 1:12:51Well, we just saw throughout this whole year, 900K Bitcoin
- 1:12:59hit the exchange and we're still holding on very strong.
- 1:13:02And so we are seeing literally billions of dollars hit the
- 1:13:05exchange and Bitcoin is absorbing this.
- 1:13:08I, I think we, I think it's hard for us to really understand what
- 1:13:12that means in the context of what's going on because it's
- 1:13:15just going sideways and we're being completely bored to death.
- 1:13:18And frankly, it's just remarkable that the price has
- 1:13:21been going sideways like it is. But here well, well, you know,
- 1:13:26we'll we'll end the show with with a little bit of bull sauce
- 1:13:29here shows with the Bitcoin archive.
- 1:13:31They posted this this morning and it goes just in the Bitcoin
- 1:13:34supply to loss reaches 30%. This level is historically
- 1:13:38preceded major rallies. So again, I've been connecting
- 1:13:43this with the 500 week moving average that seems to be what's
- 1:13:47holding up right now. A lot of the indicators right
- 1:13:50now. I I literally I had my boy
- 1:13:51yesterday text me. It's like if we don't break 100
- 1:13:55all time high 126 K by like March or something like bear
- 1:13:59market confirmed. I'm like, yeah, dude, like we're
- 1:14:01all waiting till March of 2026 to see what the hell is going on
- 1:14:05in the price. But I think we're seeing like a
- 1:14:09new setup play up play out right now.
- 1:14:12And I don't want to I don't want to chart boy on you guys, 'cause
- 1:14:14I 'cause I was chart boying. But I'm feeling extremely
- 1:14:18bullish this morning. I, I literally came into our
- 1:14:21morning meeting with Nico and was just unleashing the opium on
- 1:14:26him and he goes like, don't even say it, dude, do not say that.
- 1:14:32So I can't say it on stream because Nika thinks that the
- 1:14:36algorithms are listening to me. So I, I can't get as bullish as
- 1:14:39I want for you guys here because it's literally me spec.
- 1:14:42I might, I might drop a thread on it later just for shits and
- 1:14:45giggles because everyone's chart boying on Twitter right now and
- 1:14:48I'm like, I got some chart boy, man, I got some chart boying
- 1:14:51here. You got to follow Opti's pay
- 1:14:53group. Yeah, my, my paid group is this
- 1:14:55show, so I hope you're following.
- 1:14:59Speaking of that guys, we drop some merch if you guys want to
- 1:15:04support the show. Wait, they're saying say why
- 1:15:06Opti? Say why Opti?
- 1:15:08If you guys want to support the show and keep Opti fed, go to
- 1:15:13simplybitcoin.com and get some of our newest merch.
- 1:15:16It's been literally flying off the shelves, so get yours while
- 1:15:19supplies last literally like every single day we're making.
- 1:15:24They're just people are buying the merch.
- 1:15:26So this is a limited drop. We do not drop ship any merch.
- 1:15:30We focus on quality over quantity.
- 1:15:34So everyone has a custom simply Bitcoin logo and design.
- 1:15:40It says Bitcoin or slavery on the back.
- 1:15:42It's really, really cool. We pay attention to detail and
- 1:15:44the quality of the material. I guarantee you that this is the
- 1:15:47type of hoodie that you'll buy and you're not going to want to
- 1:15:49wash it because that initial comfort, right?
- 1:15:51You'll be like, wow, this is so comfortable.
- 1:15:53So if you guys want to support the show, of course, you know,
- 1:15:57take care of your stack first. But if you guys want to support
- 1:16:00the show, of course, check out all our partners and check out
- 1:16:03simplybitcoin.com today and see us next week at Mining Disrupt
- 1:16:09in Dallas, TX, November 11th through the 13th.
- 1:16:12Again, you can get a a a discount using the description
- 1:16:17using the link in the video slash podcast description.
- 1:16:20Guys that was the end of the show.
- 1:16:21I hope you enjoyed it. We took a more entertainment
- 1:16:25focused. Approach.
- 1:16:26I had way more fun today. Today.
- 1:16:29We made some jokes. That was fun.
- 1:16:30That was, that was, that was a good time.
- 1:16:32And Nico didn't yell at me for jokes today.
- 1:16:34We made Nico made jokes if. If you guys alike this approach,
- 1:16:39let us know in the comments right, because we had we had a
- 1:16:41whole lot of fun making today's show.
- 1:16:43You know what the curveball was? It was.
- 1:16:46It was the. Freaking stream.
- 1:16:47It was the. Stream.
- 1:16:48The first stream just disappeared off the face of the
- 1:16:51planet and I was like, all right, you know what?
- 1:16:54Like that kind of bummed me out a little bit and then I just
- 1:16:58kept going hard in the paint and I just saw the the numbers kept
- 1:17:00going up. So if you guys like this form of
- 1:17:04simply Bitcoin, this form of entertainment.
- 1:17:06We need a optimax on the show. Please let us know down in the
- 1:17:09comments. We'd love your we love your
- 1:17:13smashing the like button. We love you guys subscribing.
- 1:17:16So if you guys like this form of entertainment, please let us
- 1:17:19know. And of course, we'll be back
- 1:17:21tomorrow for a brand new episode of simply Bitcoin Live.
- 1:17:24Take care everybody go outside, get some sun, touch some grass,
- 1:17:27eat some steak, spend time with the family.
- 1:17:30Love you guys and we'll be back tomorrow for any episode.
- 1:17:33Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
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