Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly | MLB & WNBA & NFL | 9/20/26

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Sunday BEST BETS | The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly | MLB & WNBA & NFL | 9/20/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this mad.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Down, baby. Look at me now Hold on, hold on
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: pull you out That fella fights hard But he don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Sunday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: September 20th. You can go check out the NFL show
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: for today that I did last night. I have three
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: NFL plays this week, two of them today. All kind
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: of in the later part of the day, so you
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: can go check that out. It's pretty ugly, man. It's
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: the way that it is. Yesterday was pretty stupid. It
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: was a 1-1-3 day on the show, and you had
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: to get the right numbers, man. I mean, a bunch
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: of these games fell right on the number. Bowling Green
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: did not get there, so that was not a good
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: start to the day. It's just, yeah, it's a loser.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: What can you do? UTEP was the most frustrating one.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, they were never trailing in the game until
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: the very end of the first half. They were not
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: trailing at all. Michigan, as a 35-point favorite, Michigan did
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: not have a lead until they were winning 17-14 at
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: the end of the second quarter. They got a field
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: goal right before halftime. I'm thinking, yeah, this thing is
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: totally in the bag. And then what happens? Oh yeah,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: UTEP basically just doesn't show up in the second half.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Michigan puts their foot on the... I don't know why Michigan...
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know how it happened, first of all. But
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking, if UTEP has 14 points already, there's no
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: way they're not covering this. Because the.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Basically, the oddsmakers are telling you that Michigan was supposed
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: to win that game, I think, like... I forget exactly
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: what the projected score would have been, like 42-7 or
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: something like that. Yeah, if UTEP doubles that, then they're
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: not going to fail to cover this. No way. And
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: then what wound up happening? Yeah, Michigan wound up somehow
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: winning by exactly 35 and outscoring UTEP by whatever that
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: would have been. 32, is that what it was in the...
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Second half, absolutely ridiculous. The game was, it looked like
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: it was a sure winner. And it's even worse because
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: in my pick seven entry, it was a 34 and
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: a half in my pick seven entry. I'm like, whatever,
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: I'm going to put that in my, it's, you know,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: it's on my card anyway. It's a high number. It
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: shouldn't matter. And it wound up mattering. So I hate that.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: I absolutely hate that. UTSA was the only winner yesterday.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: They covered against Texas. Texas, not putting up a ton
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: of offense in that game. It got a little bit
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: questionable near the end, but Texas, they decided to just
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: kneel it out at the end, basically. Texas could have
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: possibly scored at the end on that last drive they had,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: but they ran out the clock instead, so that game
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: wound up being a winner on UTSA with the cover there.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: They didn't even score a touchdown, and they still covered.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: They lost, I think, 30-6. The game was looking pretty
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: good most of the way, though, because Texas is scoring
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: just wasn't really at a high level in that game.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: UCLA also really frustrating. When they got up 21-7, I
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: mentioned it on the show last night, it was looking
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: pretty good at that point. Like, yeah, UCLA's going to
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: run away with this. No, they actually fell behind in
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: the game. They actually gave up 17 points in a row.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: They swung it back around and they retook the lead,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: but they wound up pushing. They wound up just going
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: back and forth again between being up 7 and being
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: up 14. And I'm thinking, all right, just score one
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: more time in the fourth quarter. We can still get
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: this done. No, they wound up pushing on exactly the 14.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: And you know what's worse? I had them in my
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: pick seven, and that number was 14 and a half.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: So that one also lost by a half point. And
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: I wound up going, I think, three and four on
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: the week with two losses each by a half point
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: in that game there. It's so, so frustrating, dude. um
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: i don't know what else to say and obviously i
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: had bowling green in it and that was a loss
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: and i had utsa in it which was a winner
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: so the actual card that i had went one and
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: three in that game and then my other plays went
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: two and one or whatever um with um coastal uh
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: carolina not winning new mexico and charlotte did both covers
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: that's how i laid that one out all right let's
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: just do do this man i don't want this show
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: to take this long this is ridiculous I gotta find
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: a way to shorten the baseball crap. I mean, this
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: is ridiculous. All right, the first game up is Philadelphia
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: and the Mets. The Mets won each of the last
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: two games, I believe. So the Mets have been competing
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: in this series. They're obviously trying to win. Maybe Philly's gonna...
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: be a little bit more motivated here and try to
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: bounce back here this time. Philly is still fighting for
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: wild card positioning and whatever. I think technically they could
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: still also not even make the playoffs. I'm pretty sure.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the NL is kind of, it's in a
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: weird state right now where we pretty much know who
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: all the playoff teams are, except I believe San Diego
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: and Arizona, I think is the only team basically that's
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: not eliminated at this point. That's not in the playoffs
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: right now. So the NL picture is almost clear because
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Miami is eliminated now. But basically, if Philly or the
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Cubs have a bad stretch and Arizona starts winning a
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: bunch of games, then it's possible that Arizona gets in
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: and Philly doesn't or something like that. That's the only
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: thing that might actually change. Is that going to motivate?
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, is Philly going to be motivated and not fear?
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but they do have the better starting
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the mound in this one. The Mets have
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. The Mets used a bunch of guys yesterday, though,
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: five bullpen arms. Philadelphia used three. The Mets are in
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: the number six bullpen whip. Yeah, they're a pretty good bullpen,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: maybe not quite that good. Philadelphia's number 19, definitely not
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: as good as the Mets. Philadelphia is the better offense,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: although they're not really that good in that department either.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: They're number 22, tied with Baltimore right now. Better at
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: home than where they are now, which is on the road.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: The Mets are number 24. Mets, obviously not a good
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: offense either. Christopher Sanchez is getting the start for Philly,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: so they do have one of their best pitchers pitching here. 2.93 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: You'd like to see that whip be lower, though. That's
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: just not an elite-level whip. 3.95 road ERA, so he is...
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: A bit worse on the road. He's got a 292
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: road opponent batting average, which isn't really that good. And
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, he was too hittable, man. He's
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: given up 11 runs in his last 12 and a
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: third innings. That's not good. His walk rate's been a
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: little bit up recently. His strikeout rate's been a little
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: bit down. But more importantly, he's been very hittable in
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, which were against Houston and Washington.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: So Sanchez is not totally in good form right now
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: and not in his good home road splits here. However,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: he is usually good against the Mets. They have 109 at-bats,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: 220 average against them, 644 OPS, 34-10 strikeout walk ratio.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: So which Sanchez is going to show up here? I
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: don't know. And is it enough to justify them laying
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: minus 175? I kind of don't think it is because
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: the Mets have Jonah Tong pitching, and he's been good
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: in his last two appearances. I think he might actually
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: be good. He's young. He's got a 3.43 ERA now
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: this season and a small sample size, 1.19 whip, and
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: he has a zero ERA at home right now. which
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: was one appearance, oh no, two appearances so far. He
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: had a six-inning shutout, or six-inning zero-earned run performance, I
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: should say, one unearned run against Baltimore last time. And
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: they still lost that game, by the way. But Tong
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: was really good in that game. And in his two
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: starts in September, since they called him back up or whatever,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: he's got 13 strikeouts and two walks in 11 innings.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: A 3.270 RA, four runs allowed, earned runs, and eight
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: hits allowed. Tong is pitching well currently, man. Definitely good
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: command of his pitches based on those strikeout numbers and whatever.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Tong still doesn't have a great strikeout walk ratio, though, 2.2.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per nine is 8.6, but it is a little
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: bit higher his last two starts. Arias is the only
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: hitter on Philly who's ever faced him. He's one for
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: one off him with a single. an RBI single with
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: no strikeouts, obviously, and also no walks. This game, to me,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: looks like maybe an under might be the way to
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: look at this game. Yeah, I mean, I think that
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: might be what I would do. By the way, as
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: far as Sanchez is concerned, his hit rate's a bit
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: too high, man. He's got one hit per inning on
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: the season, which is kind of strange. Again, he's usually
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: a guy that his issue is usually being a little
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: bit wild, but he's been too hittable this year. Sanchez's
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: walk rate is fairly good, and his strikeout rate is
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: high as well for Sanchez. 4.9 strikeout walk ratio is good.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: 10 strikeout per nine is good. But anyway, yeah, I
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: think probably the under, I think would be the best way,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, to play this game. The total's at
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: eight in a couple of books, maybe seven and a half.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: So the odds makers have not put a high total
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: out there on this. They tend to think it's going
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: to be a low scoring game, it looks like. 93%
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: of tickets and 88% of the cash on the over.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: So it's a public over with less of the money
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: on it. So the market sort of indicating towards the
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: under as well here. Philly has 70% of the tickets
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: and 94% of the cash is like a minus 160,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: something favorite or minus 170 actually. I think that price
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: is too high to be honest on Philly. The way
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: that Tong is pitching right now, and he's in better
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: form than Sanchez. I think I would actually slightly lean
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: towards taking the Mets on like a plus one run
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: line or something like that in that game. But I
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: think I prefer the under in that one. All right,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's on the verge of a sweep.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Royals, not exactly a good team here.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Will Pittsburgh show up and really be motivated to try
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: to get the sweep here? I don't know. I mean,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: these teams are not going anywhere. Pittsburgh has a divisional
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: series next against St.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to be a look
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: ahead or not, but maybe. Maybe they overlook Kansas City here.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh used five relief pitchers yesterday. Neither of these bullpens
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: is that good, but Kansas City's is worse, although they
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: only used two. Relief pitchers yesterday. Pittsburgh's number 18 out
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen. Kansas City's dead last. I still think
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: they're better than the A's, but they're bad. Pittsburgh is
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They're number six right now, and they
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: tend to be pretty good at home. Kansas City is
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: moved up, I think, recently, but where are they at?
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: They're number 20 right now, which is, yeah, not great.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Michael Walker is getting the start for Kansas City here, though.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: And I think I would prefer him in this game
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: over a Pittsburgh bullpen game. Walker's got a 3.34 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: He's Kansas City's most steady starter, I would say. 3.7
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: road ERA, though, so he's a little bit worse on
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: the road. He's been pitching pretty consistently. I mean, he's
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: been not terrible recently. He's going six innings at least
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: in every one of these starts. Not giving up a
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: ton of runs here. He's got a low hit rate
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: on the season, a low walk rate. Doesn't really strike
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: guys out either, though. Three strikeout walk ratio, nonetheless, because
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really walk many guys. Contrary to his name, 7.1
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is not very high, but he is
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: pretty consistent, though, and he's been decent against Pittsburgh for
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: the most part. 37 career at-bats, 13 strikeouts, three walks,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: 243 average, 732 LPS allowed, so there's a little bit
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: of power going on here, but The two home runs
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: he's allowed to Pittsburgh were both Ryan O'Hearns, so if
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: he could pitch around him. Walker, I think, should have
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: a decent start here, more than likely. Pittsburgh's going with
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game. They got Lake Bashar, however you pronounce
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: his name, listed as a starter. He's been good, but
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: he's probably going to give you max two innings here,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: I would say, something like that. Kansas City has not
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: really done much against him in a small sample size.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's really enough. With Pittsburgh having
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: a taxed bullpen here to some extent and going with
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game, I think I'd rather lean towards Kansas
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: City here, although I think I'd only do it in
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the first five. It'll be Waka up against... basically bullpen
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: arms for pittsburgh for that entire time so i'd rather
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: be backing waka there although kansas city believe it or
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: not is actually a road favorite here but to me
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: that's the odds makers giving you a signal like why
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: would kansas city who has the way worse record why
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: would they be a favorite on the road here well
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: the odds makers are telling you They have the better
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: of the pitching matchup in this one. Kansas City is
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: about a minus 120 favorite. Although in the first five,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: they're going to be probably a heavier favorite than that,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: maybe minus 130. And the money is coming in on Pittsburgh.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: 50-50 on the tickets, 87% of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I don't understand that. You would think that Pittsburgh would
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: be attracting the public here in this one, although the
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: public is going to mostly be focused on the NFL
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: card today or the NFL board today. So these baseball
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: games are probably not going to get a ton of volume,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: but still. Yeah, I like Kansas City in the first
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: five in that one, plus a little bit extra motivation
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: maybe to try to avoid the sweep. That plus having
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitching setup there, in my opinion. Cleveland
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: against the A's. Cleveland is on the verge of a
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: sweep here. They may start looking ahead. Cleveland plays Boston next,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: so that's going to be kind of a big series
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: there with the Red Sox ahead. Red Sox are very
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: close to clinching a playoff spot at this point. I
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: think they basically need one more win at this point
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. So they're sitting pretty well right now.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is winning their division currently. And even if they weren't,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: I think they'd be in the top wildcard spot right now,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: I believe. I believe that the White Sox still hold
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: the current wildcard spot right now. So will Cleveland overlook
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: the A's here? I think that is possible. given that
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: they've already won this series. Cleveland needs to keep winning, though,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: so they can't really overlook any game. But again, they
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: might be looking ahead a little bit to Boston here.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is the better bullpen. There's no question about that.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: They used three relief pitchers in the game yesterday. They won,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: I think, rather easily yesterday. I think it was a
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: blowout win for Cleveland. I think it was like 10-3
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: or something, 10-5. The A's used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Let me see. What was the score yesterday? It was 12-6,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: so all right. I don't know where I was getting
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: that from. So very high scoring. That's one of the
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: highest scoring games you'll see out of Cleveland. That's ridiculous.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: That's the A's pitching for you. Even Cleveland, an atrocious offense,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: can score 12 on those guys, and it's not even
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: in the A's stadium either. Cleveland is number eight in bullpen.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: They're definitely a good bullpen. The A's are number 28,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: but I think they're the worst bullpen in baseball. The
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: A's are number 15 in offense. Cleveland is 28th tied
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: with Toronto. So the A's are the better of the
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: two offenses still. I don't think there's going to be
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: much offense in this game, though. It's a low total,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: and it's that way for a reason. Jack Perkins is
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: pitching for the A's. He is not as bad as
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: his ERA would suggest. 6.14 ERA, 1.48 whip. Those numbers
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: are not good, I know. But he's significantly better on
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: the road, away from the A's horrible stadium. He's got
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: a 5.04 road ERA, which I know is still not good,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: but definitely better than what he does at home. 237
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: road upon a batting average is definitely not bad. He's
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: been good recently, though. His last start was really good
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: in Tampa. Gave up nowhere in runs at 62 thirds innings. Still,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: his team did not win the game. That seems like
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: a theme here. Had eight strikeouts, one walk. So he
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: seems to be coming into form here. He's got 11 strikeouts,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: one walk in his last two starts, although the other
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: one was against Toronto, and they're not very good. But
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense is not very good either. Perkins' hit rate
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: is definitely too high right now. Those walk rates are
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: not really great either. His strikeout rate is pretty high, though,
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: and that's what I keep sort of latching onto. Like, yeah,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: this guy could be good if he stops allowing base runners.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: He strikes out a lot of guys. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, 10.4
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine. That tells you he does have the
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: ability to fool major league hitters. Cleveland has done nothing
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: against him. Cleveland, most of their hitters have faced him,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: and they're one for 19 off him. The only hit
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: they have against him is a triple from Adele, who
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: used to be in his division, I believe. on the Angels,
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: so Adele has like half of these at-bats pretty much.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Six strikeouts, no walks, 053 average, 258 OPS. So I
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: think Perkins actually will pitch well here, as he has
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: before against Cleveland. And he gets to be on the
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: road here where he's better. Cleveland's a bad offense. Perkins
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: looked good in his last start. Gavin Williams is on
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: the other side of this thing, and Williams is good
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland. 3.7 ADRA, 1.1 whip. He's got a 3.04
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: home ERA, so he's better at home. He's been pitching
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: still fairly well. His strikeout rate has been really, really
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: high recently, 31 strikeouts in 18 innings this month so far.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: His walk rate hasn't really been that good, though, seven walks.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: But he's striking out so many guys, and he's not
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: allowing many hits, so he's barely allowing any runs. He's
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: got a two ERA this month, so he is still
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: pitching well and only 10 hits allowed in 18 innings.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. His
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: walk rate is like a little bit high. His strikeout
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: rate is very high. He's one of the better strikeout
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: pitchers in all of baseball. 4.2 strikeout walk ratio this
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: year is the best that he's ever had. He's having
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: his best season ever, I'm pretty sure. 12.2 strikeout per
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: nine is like elite. Really, really, really good strikeout rate.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: And the A's have not been able to hit him well.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Not really a surprise, even though You'd think maybe some
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: of that would have been in the A's stadium, although
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure. They only have five hitters who
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: have faced him. They're one for 14. The only hit
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: is a single from Haim. Six strikeouts, one walk, 071 average,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: 205 OPS.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: I think this game is an under in the first five, man.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: And I kind of wanted to do it, but the
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: full game total is seven or six and a half.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: When do the A's ever have a full game total
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: that's like almost six and a half? It's so insane, dude.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: But the odds makers are telling you this game is
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: going to be low scoring, uh, six and a half,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: seven is crazy, but there's, I could not play this
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: full game though, because of the A's bullpen. They're just
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: way too bad. Like they could easily just surrender that thing.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: 91% of the tickets, 88% of the cash on the over.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: So the over is public, especially after yesterday's result. But
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: these offices are really not that prolific, man, especially not Cleveland's.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: If I was going to play this game, I would
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: play the first five under and, uh, I don't think
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I want it though. It's like, it's probably going to
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: be a three in this game. I just, I just
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: don't love it, man. So I got a pass, but
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: I think that would be the best way to play
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: that game. Maybe I just don't fully trust Perkins either.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Um, not 88% of tickets, 91% of
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: the cash on Cleveland. Cleveland's a very public side. It
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: just flipped a 92, 92 there. Um, Or not flipped,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: but it just shifted. Cleveland's a very public side, and
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: they're minus 230, basically, here on the money line. Even
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: more expensive than that, maybe. I don't really see a
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: great angle to really... Well, I mean, Cleveland's got the
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, and I guess the somewhat better starter, too. So, yeah, Cleveland...
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: should win based on the matchup but again I think
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: it's not a great spot for Cleveland I think you
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: can make an argument to play the A's in the
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: first five here and play Perkins to battle Williams here
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: and you you could get the run line on the
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: A's in the first five right like maybe even a
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: plus one run line in the first five to for
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the A's to maybe keep that thing close in the
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: first five I might lean that way as well Dirty
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Sock what's up thanks for hanging out Mr. Pinsey what's
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: up um I would not have done that. Ohio State,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: no shutout. Didn't they lose a shutout on some complete bullshit?
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: There was something really weird happening at the end of
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: that game. I think they were winning the game 52-0,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: and then they scored another touchdown. I don't know. Something
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: weird happened, I'm pretty sure, at the end of that game.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: I think Kent State scored a field goal literally right
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: at the end of the game or something. So.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think you, uh, you got really lucky on
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: that one. Um, there's no way I like, I would
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: not have played Ohio state to get the shutout. Okay.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Like I would not have done that because there was
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: obviously the chance that Ohio state would just pack it
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: in early in that game. Right. I'd be like, whatever
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: we won this game. I don't think they really were
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: that heavily motivated to actually get a shutout. Like who cares?
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Um, and Kent State would
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: have been motivated to at least try to avoid it
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: in their in-state big brother, little brother matchup. But the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: way that game was going, it looked like Kent State
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: was not going to score. I'm pretty sure they scored
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: literally right at the end of the game, if I
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: got that right. I saw some of the end of
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: that game, or I saw the highlights of it. I mean,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: it was not a game I was watching. Unwatchable game.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Red Sox-Tampa Bay, I'm going to have a play in
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't really fully understand what I'm seeing
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: in the market here, but you know what I'm doing, man.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: This is a Patrick Sandoval game. This game is going
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: to be an over, even though the numbers seven and
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: a half or eight out there. If you want to
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: play the eight at a less juicy price, you could
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: do that too. I found the over seven and a
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: half at minus 118, which isn't too bad. Even though
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: this is not a key, not like seven and a
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: half to eight is not a key number move. So
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: if you want to play over eight, I think that's
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: fine as well. And you can find that at like
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: minus 104 probably. I considered that, but I'm like, eh.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: If it's less than minus 120, I'm like, whatever. I'll
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: get the better of the half run there. Why not?
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Who knows? But I think this game is going to
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: be higher scoring, man. Tampa Bay won yesterday, so these
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: teams have split the series so far. It's a big series.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tampa's trying to hold off the Yankees, although
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: at least for them, the Yankees lost yesterday. And they're
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: also kind of trying to hold off Boston at the
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: same time. in a way so um Red Sox are
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: are really pretty much locked into the number two wild
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: card though the Red Sox are the Yankees are pretty
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: much locked into well I don't want to say the
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Yankees are locked into the number one wild card spot
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: but the Yankees are either going to be the number
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: one wild card or win the division at this point
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: and Tampa does not want to surrender surrender the division
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: at this point so Tampa probably does have a little
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: bit more motivation than the Red Sox do here um
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Red Sox used one relief pitcher yesterday, although it was Whitlock,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: who is basically their setup man. Red Sox need to
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: get some of these pitchers back though, man. Mostly Tyron
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Guerrero needs to get his way back. By the way,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet throwing off a mound now. Looks like he
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: may join the Red Sox roster soon. He's not going
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: to be in the starting rotation though, but that's going
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: to be pretty interesting if the Red Sox have Crochet
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen for their playoff roster. We'll see, man.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Some teams do stuff like that. The Red Sox had
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale in their bullpen when they won the World
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Series in 2018. Kansas City did something similar to this
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: in 2015, so I don't know. We'll see. Anyway, I
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: think the Red Sox are the better bullpen here. Tampa
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Bay used four relief pitchers, including ex-Red Sox Cam Boozer.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: That guy gets around. After he... He had a bunch of, like,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: drug and alcohol issues, and I think he never pitched
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: in the majors until he pitched with the Red Sox
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: when he was, like, in his mid to late 30s.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: It was kind of like a... It was a story
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: like The Rookie, that movie with... Is it... Dennis Quaid,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: is that who's in it? I think so, uh, where
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: he gets his shot to pitch in the majors for, like, the,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: for Tampa, I believe, uh, like, at a really old age, uh,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: you know, like, fulfilling his dream at, like, the very
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: last moment, it was almost like that, anyway, whatever, um,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, I get all dramatic, I'm like, yeah, who cares,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Red Sox number one in bullpen here, um, in both
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: ERA and WIP now, though they're tied with the Yankees
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: with the best ERA. Tampa Bay's number three in bullpen, WIP,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: tied with the Yankees and Atlanta in bullpen, WIP. But
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: I still don't think they're that good. I think Tampa
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: is not really a top five bullpen. I think maybe
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: they're a top ten bullpen. Tampa's number seven in offense.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are number nine, tied with Houston and Atlanta.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Both these offenses have been pretty capable, so that is
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: a decent sign for the over here. I think these
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: games in the series have been low scoring so far. Yeah,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: both games in the series have gone under. So I
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: think maybe the public might be a little bit hesitant
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: to want to try to play an over in this
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: particular game. But I think we can get there with
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: this one. You know I hate Sandoval, dude. Patrick Sandoval,
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: this guy... Should not even be on a major league roster.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. I know he does have the ability to
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, but he fucking sucks, dude. He's not
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: even as good as this 4.99 ERA would suggest, and
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: that thing is getting worse. He's got a 1.79 whip, dude.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: That is, like, he should be on the fucking Rockies. Like,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: that whip is, it's worse than all the Rockies starters.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: That is so fucking bad. Like, fuck this guy. 5.6
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Absolutely terrible. His opponent batting average is above 300,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: both at home and on the road. He's been awful
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: this month with an ERA of almost 8. He is
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: striking guys out, but he's walking a ton of guys.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: He's allowing a ton of hits. The Red Sox have
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: lost six of his last seven starts. Yeah, whatever. He sucks.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is ridiculously high. His walk rate is
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: also way too high. His strikeout rate is fine, but
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: everything else sucks. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio only because he
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: manages a 9.7 strikeout per nine. He's also not good
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: against Tampa. I know that's shocking. 53 at bats, 283 average,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: 873 OPS, 13 to five strikeout walk ratio. If I
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: sound like I'm mad, I am because this guy does
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: not even deserve a roster spot. He fucking blows, and
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: he is going to get absolutely torn a new asshole
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: in this game, and Griffin Jacks is on the other
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: side for Tampa. He's not bad, but I do think
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: he can give up enough runs to get us an
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: over in this one. 3.8 ERA, 1.2 whip. He is
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: slightly better at home, 3.76 home ERA. He's coming off
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: a five-inning shutout performance of the A's, but we know
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: the A's have been struggling offensively, and while Jacks Looks
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: like he was good in his last two starts. He
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: does have a 10-3 strikeout walk ratio this month. That's
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: not that bad. His last two starts look like they
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: were both fairly good, but his start prior to that
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: was awful against the Mets, and he's not going deep
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: into these outings. He's only going max five innings. So
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay may have to go to the bullpen a
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: little bit early here. Jacks, he's got an all right
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: hit rate, an all right walk rate, and a pretty
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: good strikeout rate. So those numbers are all good. 3.3
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 9.5 Ks per nine. But I just
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: don't think he's quite as good as maybe what his
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: numbers make him look. Neither pitcher, I think, is. But
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: also the Red Sox have been able to hit them
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are pretty familiar with them at this
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: point they have 45 at bats against them familiarity usually
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: helps the offense 10 strikeouts one walk is not good
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: for their hitting but they have a 289 average and
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: 815 OPS against them so both pitchers have struggled against
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: the opposing lineups here so yeah I think the over
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense in this one it is
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: going to be one of my plays And we don't
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: see any percentages on this yet, but I don't know
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: why the total is as low as it is. It's
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: seven and a half or eight. I think this game
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: goes over a 66% of tickets, 80% of the cash
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: on the red socks. Yeah, I don't think so. Uh,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is about a minus one 40, something favorite.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it might just be all about the price. Like, Oh,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: you're going to give me the red socks at, you know,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: that much of an underdog price. Well, okay. I guess that's,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: what the feeling is there, but it's Patrick Sandoval and
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: the Mounder. This is like the one guy that you really,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: really cannot back in the Red Sox pitching staff. Bayo
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: will have his moments like yesterday. Bayo was awesome in
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday, and the Red Sox still lost the
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: game in the bottom of the ninth inning. And they
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: ruined Bayo's best performance of his career. Isn't that just
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: great for the Red Sox? Bayo had like 11 strikeouts.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I think he pitched eight innings, I'm pretty sure. And
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: then I think Whitlock came in and lost the game.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: And he's one of the Red Sox' best relief pitchers. Yeah,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: that's just great. But I would lean Tampa in this game,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: at least in the first five probably. But you have
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: to lay a half run if you want to do that.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: But Jax is definitely better than Sandoval. Everybody is better
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: than Sandoval, so... Yeah, I hope this guy is not
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: on the team for much longer. At least once we
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: get to the playoffs, they better drop him from the roster, dude.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: There's no spot for this guy on the playoff roster, okay?
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Fuck him. Bring back Crochet.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I'd rather have Bayo out there. I don't like Bayo
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: much at all, but I'd rather have him out there
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: than Sandoval. All right. Cubs and Reds, these teams have
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: split this series. The Cubs bounced back with a win yesterday.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Cubs are still trying to make sure they make the playoffs,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: and they're still fighting to have home advantage in their
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: wildcard matchup that seems inevitable at this point, really, between
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: them and the Phillies. The Cubs used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: They're the better bullpen over Cincinnati. Cincinnati, whoops. Cincinnati used
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: two relief pitchers yesterday it looks like yeah Cubs are
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen though they're number 15 the Reds are
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: number 25 Reds are not a good bullpen Cubs are
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: still the number one offense in baseball and Cincinnati is
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: a lot worse than that and number 25 and not
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: particularly good at home either. There might be some offense
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: in this game, though. It's a high total, and neither
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: of these pitchers are good, in my opinion. David Peterson
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: is getting the start for the Cubs. Not a good
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: season from him. 5.11 ERA. 1.55 whip is very bad.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: It's better than Sandoval, though. Peterson has been at least
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: not too bad on the road, though. 4.11 road ERA.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: He spent the majority of the season with the Mets.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Came over to the Cubs, and he's actually been a
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: little bit better. With the Cubs, I'm just not buying it.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: This is what I was thinking with the 15-10. I
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: was like, I remember there was a 15-10 strikeout walk
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: ratio in here somewhere. It's David Peterson in the month
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: of September. That's not a good ratio, dude. He's walking
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: way too many guys, and he's allowing a lot of
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: hits on top of that. Peterson is not really in
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: good form right now. His ERA this month is over 5,
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: even though his last couple starts, his last start especially,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: was actually good against Atlanta. His last two starts looked
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: like they were okay, but... The walk numbers are not
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: very good. He didn't go deep into the game against Milwaukee.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. His hit rate's way too high
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate's also way too high.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is mediocre. Two strikeout walk ratios, nothing
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: to write home about. 8.1 strikeout per nine is not great.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Reds are pretty bad. In 97 at-bats,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: 371 average allowed, 925 OPS, 22 to 10 strikeout walk ratios.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: None of those numbers are good. So, yeah, I don't
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: think Peterson's going to pitch well here. Rhett Lowder is
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: on the other side with Cincinnati. He's not good. 5.79 ERA, 1.52 whip.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: He is better at home, though, by quite a bit.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: He has an ERA that's more than three runs lower
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: at home, 4.16. He's definitely better at home. His opponent
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: batting average is a lot better at home as well.
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: He was decent last time out against the Dodgers. at home,
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: by the way, after his previous two starts were not good.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not ready to say that he's really in good form.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: With a 10-8 strikeout walk ratio this month and a
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: lot of hits allowed, that's not good. His hit rate's
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: high on the season. His walk rate's not very good.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's not good. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio is
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: really ugly. 7.1 case per nine isn't good either. His
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Cubs, though, they're actually pretty good. In
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: 51 at-bats, 196 average allowed, 658 OPS, 9-8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: That's the worst number here is that strikeout walk ratio here.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: It might sound insane, but I think Cincinnati first five
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: is actually the way to play this game. We don't
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: see the percentages on it yet. Cubs are around a
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: minus 150-something favorite here. Cubs are definitely a heavy favorite here,
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: and while they do have some advantages in this game,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: I think the one advantage Cincinnati might have here is
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup, believe it or not. I also
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: think this game probably does go over. Like, Cincinnati's bullpen
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: is bad. I don't think either pitcher is really good,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: so taking the over 9.5 makes sense here in this
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: game as well, or I guess it's 9.5 or 10.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: It's a high number there, and it's high for a reason. Actually, the...
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: The lean at the sharp Vegas book that we have
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: listed here is actually the higher number at 10. So
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: it seems like there might be a little bit of
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: a sharp lean towards the over in this game, which
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: I do agree with. Cincinnati first five, I think might
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: be the way to play this game, man, where you got,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe a little bit of pressure on the Cubs.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: Everybody kind of knows the Cubs have something to play
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: for laying a price like that with David Peterson on
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: the road. Seems like a bad idea to me. Both
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: pitchers are in their better home road splits though, but
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers do at least favor louder over Peterson
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: in that game. Garrett, what's up? Uh, what are you,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: what are you playing in the NFL? Um, Yeah, man,
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: if you watched my NFL show last night, I went
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: over the whole thing. I have no 1 o'clock bets.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: I don't like the 1 o'clock slate, really. My favorite
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: 1 o'clock game is the Titans plus the points, though,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: which almost made the cut for me, and I believe
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: it is going to be in my pick 5 entry
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: at least. But they're giving us a 6.5 on it.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Of course, watch them lose by 7, you know what
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I mean? You know that's what's going to happen. Just
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: like yesterday, we get the slightly worse number in these
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: games where the number is very fine-tuned, and I'm going
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: to lose that game by a half point. You know
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: that's what's going to happen. Hopefully Tennessee just wins outright
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: and we don't have to worry about it. But whatever.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Atlanta and Houston. All right, Garrett. Is
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: that why you come into the chat right when I'm
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: about to talk about Atlanta? Houston is a home team
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: that's going to be in desperation mode here, trying to
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep. So right away that has me leaning
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: towards Houston given the situation. Braves on the verge of
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: a sweep. The Braves do not need this game as
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: much as Houston does. Houston is one game behind Texas
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: now at this point in the AL West. I think
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: pretty much the way their easiest path to the playoffs
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: is to win their division because really they just have
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: to overtake Texas again rather than worry about the multiple
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: wildcard teams that are in play right now. And I
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: think this is a pitching matchup that does look like
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: it should give Houston the edge here, although when I
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: looked at the numbers here, that was really not the case.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: So that's why I'm not actually doing it, because otherwise
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: I'd be playing Houston in this game, and I still
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: think that is one of the options in this game.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Houston used four relief pitchers yesterday. Atlanta is the better bullpen, though.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Atlanta used three. Atlanta is ranked number two in bullpen
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: right now. They're one of the top five bullpens. Houston
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: is not terrible out of the bullpen either, though. They're
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: number 14, but not as good as Atlanta for sure.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: Houston is number nine offensively, tied with the Braves, by
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: the way, and the Red Sox. So both these teams
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: are tied in OPS. Atlanta's going with Martin Perez, though.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: He's not good, dude. I mean, he's definitely not as
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: good as his numbers make him look. 3.07 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, like I always say, give him credit for...
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: Pitching effectively this season, you know, as an aging junk pitcher,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: but he's not very good on the road. 4.6 road ERA.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: He's significantly worse on the road. He has more walks
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: than strikeouts this month. That is not good. That's not
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: a good sign. 10 walks in 16 and two thirds innings,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: along with 16 hits allowed and nine strikeouts. That's not
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: going to cut it. I know he's not allowing that
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: many runs, but you cannot sustain numbers like that without
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: giving up runs at some point. His hit rate's pretty
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: good on the season, though his walk rate is definitely
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: not good, and his strikeout rate is not good either.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio is absolutely terrible. 1.7%. Like, you
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: cannot continue pitching well with a strikeout walk ratio like that.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. It's just unsustainable. And 6.5 Ks per nine
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: is not good either. Perez is also not good against Houston.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: And 130 career at-bats, 285 average, 813 OPS, 19 to
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: 10 strikeout walk ratio. Altuve has done a lot of
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: damage against him and a huge amount of at-bats. These
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good for him, so yeah, I would
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: fade Perez in this one. And that was making me
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: think I was going to have a play on Houston here,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: because you know, I like the motivational aspect of this,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: the home team trying to avoid the sweep. Plus As
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: far as the playoff standings are concerned, more motivation on
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: the Houston side. I prefer Houston's pitcher. He's the pitcher
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: with the way, way higher ceiling. The younger, more talented pitcher,
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Hunter Brown, 3.43 ERA, although his 1.29 whip is not
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: great because he's been way too wild coming back from injury.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: He is a little bit worse at home, kind of 3.55
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Had 10 strikeouts last time out, and he's
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: got 24 strikeouts in his last 16 innings of work,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: along with only five walks. So he is pitching better recently.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: Still pitching kind of inefficiently, though. But he seems to
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: have come around, man, because he's allowed three or fewer
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: earned runs in all but one start, going all the
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: way back into late July now. He's got a low
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is his
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: only problem here. That's a high number, not good, but
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: he's also striking a ton of guys out at this point. 2.2
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio has got to get better, though. His
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: numbers throughout his career have been a lot better than
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: that because this year the walks are just really, really
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: hurting him. He's got a 10.2 strikeout per nine, which
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: is also pretty good. So I'm thinking, all right, Houston
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: looks like the right way to play this game, except
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: he's not good against Atlanta. 49 career at-bats, 306 average allowed,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: 862 OPS. six, seven strikeout walk ratio. So I do
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: still think Houston is the right side in this game,
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: but we have 63% of tickets, 82% of the cash
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta. So the money is backing Atlanta. I don't
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: really agree with that. Houston is around minus 140, but
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: I would say if you're going to play Houston, I
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: would do it in the first five. I think that
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: is one way of playing this game is to take Houston.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: You'd have to lay probably the minus half run in
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: the first five, but isolate the starting pitch where I
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: do think they have the edge plus the motivational edge there.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: But I think probably the better way to play this
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: game is to just take it over the total. The
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: total's around eight. It seems a little bit low. I mean,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: I think it's because the pitchers, I think, are just
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: being a little bit overrated by the market here. Perez
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: is definitely not as good as his ERA makes him look. Brown,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: I think, really is if he gets his walks fixed again.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: But we got 88% of tickets, 94% of the cash
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: on the over. it does look like a public over still,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: but I think that's the way to play this. I mean,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: both offenses are definitely capable. So yeah, I think the
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: over is the best way to play it. Secondary, I
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: would say lay the half run with Houston in the
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: first five in that one. Uh, what are we saying?
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: Plus seven at plus money on the Titans. Um, Maybe
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I would just hang around and see if you get
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: a 7.5 at this point, then. 7.5 is better than 7.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: But I would take at least a 7 if you're
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: going to play the Titans. That one is not on
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: my card, but it was the first game I left
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: off my card. Hubbard at 20 receiving yards at plus 160. Interesting.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: I'm not much of a prop guy, except I focus
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit on it to do some of the
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl ones, but... even though the numbers are always
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: tighter with the Superbowl. I, yeah, I mean, that might
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: be a good play. I honestly have no idea. Um,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: I'm probably playing Bryce young in, uh, in fantasy, a quarterback,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: because I don't really want to play an injured Joe
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Burrow against the Texans deep. And so I think I
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: am going to have Bryce young, uh, as my quarterback.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: So if Hubbard is getting a lot of receiving yards,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: that will not hurt me. Um, I don't think unless my,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think my opponent has him.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: You play a lot of props. All right. Um, Yeah, man,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, some guys, that is their focus, and a
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: lot of those lines are not that tight because fewer
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: people focus on the props, although the recreational guys do. But,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: you know, at this point, it's become more popular at
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: this point at least. All right, Detroit and the White Sox.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: The White Sox, they got to win, man. They're one
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: game behind Cleveland right now. I believe they're in the
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: top wild card spot. They're in the last wild card spot,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: excuse me, in the AL right now. But Chicago, they
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: got a win, man. They've won two of the three
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: so far against Detroit, but Detroit is going to show
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: up too, in my opinion. Detroit is going to want
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: to play spoiler in this series here. Detroit only used
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: one relief pitcher yesterday. The White Sox used two, so
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: not a lot of usage there out of the bullpens.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are all right. Detroit's number 12. The White
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: Sox are number 16. White Sox have the slightly better
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: bullpen ERA, though. White Sox are the better offense. They're
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: number 13. Detroit is not that far behind, tied with
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: the A's in 15th, though. So these teams are pretty
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: evenly matched. And, you know, as I've been saying, Detroit
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: has one of the best run differentials in the American League,
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: yet they're not going to make the playoffs at this point,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: pretty much. It's crazy, dude. They traded Scooble away, and
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: of course, some of their run differential was accumulated back
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: when they had him. But still, it's ridiculous to see
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: a team with a really good run differential like Detroit
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: has not making the playoffs. It's just crazy. Troy Melton
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: is getting the start for Detroit in this one. He's
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: pretty good. 2.52 ERA, 1.1 whip. He's even better on
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: the road. 2.28 road ERA. Wasn't good in his last
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: few starts, though. This month, he's actually been kind of bad. 7.24
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: ERA this month with a 10-6 strikeout walk ratio and
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: 18 hits allowed in 13 and two-thirds innings. The thing is,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: two of those three starts were against Minnesota, and Minnesota
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: specifically is his kryptonite. For whatever reason, he does bad
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota, and he tends to do well against everybody
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: else pretty much, except he was not good against Toronto
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: last time out, and I believe we took a loss
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: in the first five in that one. if I remember correctly,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: on the show. I thought Melton would bounce back and
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: be a lot better in that one because it seemed
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: like he was good against every team that was not Minnesota.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: But that didn't happen. He was bad last time. So
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Melton might actually kind of be in bad form right now.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: He's turned into Troy Meltdown. Will he bounce back in
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: this game, though? Maybe. He pitched against the White Sox
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: not too long ago at home, and he wasn't really
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: great in that one either, though. He gave up a
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: lot of hits, but I think the defense kind of
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: let him down in that one, and he had to
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: pitch to more batters than he would have otherwise. He's
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: faced the White Sox two other times, though, this season.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: He was much better in the other two starts, except
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio wasn't good in those two starts.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: But generally, he is good against them. They have 70
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: at-bats against them already, and they only have a. 214
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: average against them. 670 OPS is a little bit higher
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: than you'd think, though, because he has 10 walks against
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: them and 14 strikeouts, but he's still generally been pretty
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: good against the White Sox. White Sox are going with
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Davis Martin, who was really good for the first half
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: of the season. Not so much in the later half
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: of the season, though. I don't know if he wore
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: down or if maybe the first half was a little
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: bit of a fluke, because He's a decent pitcher, but
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: he's definitely not as good. I don't think it's what
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: he looked like in the first half of the season.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.96 ERA, 1.3 whip. He is good
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: at home though. 3.09 home ERA. He's starting to pitch
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit better again. And the fact that he's
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: only allowed two runs over his last 16 innings of
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: work this month, but his team has lost all of
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: those games. He's not going that deep into these outings
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: and he's striking basically nobody out at this point. So
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: that is not a good thing. Um, His hit rate
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: is right around one per inning, which is not good enough, really.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is somewhat okay. His strikeout rate is low,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: so these numbers aren't really that good. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio, 7.3
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine. Really just mediocre-ish numbers here. His numbers
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: against Detroit are okay, though. Again, I guess kind of mediocre.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: 60 at bat, 7.7 strikeout walk ratio is definitely not good.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: 250 average, 662 OPS, still.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I think maybe the best way to play this game
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: is still to look towards the under, though. Both pitchers
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I think are capable enough. Plus, both bullpens are fairly rested.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: And they're not bad bullpens. I think they could get
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: this thing there. I really don't want to do it,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: but I think the best way to play this is
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: to take the under eight in this game. I think
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: that would be my lean here. 87% of tickets, 94%
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, but it is a
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: public over at the very least. 71% of the tickets
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: and 65% of the cash on the White Sox. So
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: the money is fading the White Sox here. They're around
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: minus 116 on the money lines. The money is backing
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: Detroit here. I can kind of understand that. If you
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: think that Melton is better than Martin, and maybe he is,
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: and I think his matchup numbers are a little bit
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: better as well, so I probably agree. You could take
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: Detroit first five, because I'm not sure if either team
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: really has much of a bullpen edge here, but yeah,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit first five money line maybe is, if
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: I was going to play the side in that game,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: maybe that's what I would do. All right. Next up
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: is Washington St.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: And St. Louis is on the verge of getting swept here,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: so it might be extra motivation for St. Louis here
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: to try to avoid the sweep. Home team trying to
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep is usually a motivated spot. Neither of
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: these teams really have anything to play for. Washington plays
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: Detroit next. I'm not sure if that's really a major
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: look-ahead spot or anything like that. But I just think
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: maybe St. Louis will be a little bit extra motivated
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: here to avoid the sweep. Washington's bullpen is not good.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Yesterday's game, I believe, went extra innings. So you know
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: what I talk about when you have an extra inning game.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: Yesterday had three extra inning games, Washington, St. Louis, San Diego, Miami,
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: and Anaheim, Minnesota. And I talk about after an extra
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: inning game, a lot of times it means the bullpens
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: have seen more usage. So a lot of times I
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: look towards an over again in the next game because
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen usage. You can kind of fade that.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's an option in this game because you do
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: have two bad bullpens here and also in the Minnesota-Anaheim.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: game you do. Washington used six relief pitchers in that
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. They're one of the league's worst bullpens in
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: addition to that. St. Louis' bullpen is not that much
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: better and they used a bunch of guys too. They
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: used seven relief pitchers I think is what that is.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: So yeah, these bullpens are definitely in fade mode here.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: Not that they wouldn't be anyway, but St. Louis is
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: number 23 in bullpen. Their ERA in the mid four
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: is not good. Washington even worse, number 26 with one
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: of the couple. They're one of the three bullpens with
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: an ERA of over five. And you know who the
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: other two are, the A's and the Royals. Washington's a
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: good offense. They're number three. St. Louis is not so much.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: They're number 26. But still, this does look like it
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: maybe has the makings of an over here. It is
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: a high total, too. With the starting pitching, though, I'm
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: not so sure that I really want to do it.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Because I usually want bad bullpens and bad starting pitching
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: if I really want to play the over. Jake Irvin
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: pitching for Washington. I know he's not good. 5.51 ERA, 1.41 whip,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: but he is better on the road for whatever reason. 4.76
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: road ERA with a 2.13 opponent batting average. And this
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: is a more pitcher-friendly ballpark here. Irvin is walking too
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: many guys recently. Basically... What you get out of him
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: is he walks too many guys, but he also gets
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of strikeouts usually. His hit rate is okay
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: this season. His walk rate is definitely his major problem.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: It's way too high, and his strikeout rate is pretty
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: high as well. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio is not good.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: 9 strikeout per 9 is definitely good, though. So, I mean,
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: Irvin does have some talent in that he can strike
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: guys out, but His career just hasn't taken off because
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: he just has other problems. But he is good specifically
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: against St.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: They have 30 at-bats against him, a. 233 average,. 658 OPS,.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: 81 strikeout walk ratios. He's been pretty good against this
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: particular lineup. So Irvin... Might do okay while he's out there. St.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: Louis has kind of a wild card here. Quinn Matthews
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: on the mound, who I think is a rookie. And
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: he's shown glimpses of being pretty good. 3.62 ERAs. 1.39
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely not good, though. But he's been good
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: at home. 1.46 home ERAs. So I'm not really looking
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: to fade him either here. um he was good last
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: time out really good against san francisco and in fact
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: he said like pretty much four good starts in a
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: row i would say here except that he walked too
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: many guys and one of them against the dodgers but
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: his last four starts he's allowed two or fewer earned
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: runs he's got a lot of strikeouts recently the only
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: issue is his walk number has been a little bit
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: high recently but again really it was mostly because that
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: dodgers game he was walk heavy but everything else he's
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: been good Recently, he was good against San Francisco, two
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: starts in a row. They're not a good offense, but still.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Matthews looks like he is kind of in form right now,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: although on the course of the season, his hit rate
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: is just kind of okay. His walk rate's not too bad.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is decent. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio isn't
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: really that good, though. 8.7 Ks per nine, I mean,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: that's not bad. And he's also unfamiliar to Washington. So
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: he might have a little bit of an extra edge
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: here because I talk about that when a young pitcher
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: is unfamiliar to the opposing offense. They might have a
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra edge there. So this game
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: does seem like it would be a full game over here,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: but I think I like the under in the first
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: five in this game. I think it's more so what
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: I like in this one. I think both pitchers might
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: be able to get you there, although the full game...
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: market is coming in on the over 67% of tickets,
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: 87% of the cash on the over. It's at eight
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: and a half. It looks like at most places or
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: it's teetering on nine, which is that key number. But
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: I think I'd prefer to be on the under in
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: the first five in this one, given this pitching match.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: I think these pitchers might actually be a little bit
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: undervalued in this one. So first five under, you'd probably
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: get a four, four and a half. I think that
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: makes some sense here. The money is also back in Washington.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with that. 74% of tickets, 53% of
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: the cash on St. Louis. They dropped from an opener
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: of minus 149 all the way down to minus 120,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: so the market read, even though it's saying that the
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: money is now, even though the market read is saying
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in on Washington, I just don't agree.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: You got St. Louis looking to get the sweep here,
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: and I think Matthews has the higher ceiling than Irvin
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: does right now. Irvin, we pretty much know what he
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: is at this point, unfortunately, and he does have good
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, but I think Matthews He's in the better
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: form right now, and his ceiling is higher. Plus, St.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Louis has more motivation. So I lean St. Louis in
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: that one. Maybe first five because both bullpens are so...
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: unbackable even though washington's is worse i think st louis
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: first five you'd have to probably lay the half run
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: though and maybe not something you want to do with
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: kind of an unproven rookie but i still think that
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: might be the way that i would go there knowing
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: me i i am a guy that likes to play
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: on these uh pitchers that are unfamiliar though i've kind
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: of tried to change my approach a little bit recently
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: though toronto and texas oh i forgot to talk about
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: this game in my breakdown that was a push yesterday
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: too um Yeah, I mean, I'm not happy about it.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: The first five under would have hit because I think
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: it landed three. The game was six to two for
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: the last like three innings. And at that point, I'm
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: just like, don't allow any more runs. Just push the game, please.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: And that is what happened. So, you know, I'm not
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: thrilled about it. But each game in the series has
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: hit has landed eight. Now, Texas is on the verge
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: of a sweep. Texas might be feeling pretty high on
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: themselves right now because I know they need to keep
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: winning to try to win the AL West here, but
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: the fact that they're atop the AL West now and
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: they've beaten one of the other wildcard potential teams here,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays, one of their competition, they've beaten them
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: two games here. Blue Jays, I think, are going to
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: have a little bit extra motivation coming into this one, man.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: So I think the spot does kind of favor the
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays in this one. The situation does. The pitching
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: matchup might not, though. Maybe that's just me hating bullpen games, though.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: Although I backed one with the same setup. Toronto's bullpen
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: approach that they're using in this game, we got a
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: win on the show five games ago, the last time
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: they literally went with the same bullpen approach, with the
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: same opener. So it's been working for Toronto. Texas, they
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: used five relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen actually kind of
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: saved us yesterday with that under, even though I have
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: not been a fan of their bullpen this year. Toronto
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: used three guys. Toronto is the better bullpen. Toronto is
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: number 17. They got a decent ERA. Texas, not so much.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: They're number 20 with a much worse ERA. Toronto is
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: the worst offense. They're number 28 tied with Cleveland. Texas
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: is number 17 tied with San Diego. Usually lower scoring
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: games here in Texas, though. Pitcher-friendly park. Toronto going with
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game, like I said, opened by Spencer Miles,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: who does have good numbers, and it's worked for Toronto,
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: as we can see. So we got a win with
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: this approach last time. Last time Toronto did this, we
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: took them on the show, and they got the win
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. And in fact, with Miles being the opener...
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: Toronto's won 11 of the last 12 games where they've
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: done that. That's insane because you'd think there'd be a
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: lot of randomness with who the bullpen arms are that
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: they use after miles, but because he only goes one
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: to two innings, but every time he does, they win basically.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty crazy. And miles has good numbers against Texas,
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: but it's a small sample and you know, he's only
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: going to be out there for one to two innings.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: And then Toronto's going with that bullpen approach, but it's
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: a bullpen approach that has worked for them. Texas is
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: going with Jacob DeGrom. He's had a good season, even
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: though he's old. 3.79 ERA, 1.07 WIP. He's been really
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: good at home. 2.53 ERA at home with a below
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: 200 opponent batting average at home. They moved him up
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: to start against the Red Sox last time, and he
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: was pretty good in that start, although he only went
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: five innings. He was a bit inefficient, but he pitched well,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: and he got the win. He's been in really good
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: form recently, though. He's got a 27-2 strikeout walk ratio
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: this month, and over his last four starts, that goes
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: up to 35-2. Totally ridiculous, and his ERA is around
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: 2 over that stretch. So, yeah, he's pitching well currently.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: He's got good recent form. He's got a low hit rate,
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All those numbers are good.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: His only bad number really this year is the amount
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: of home runs that he's allowed, which you'd think would
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: be less pitching in a stadium like this, but whatever.
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: He's got a five strikeout walk ratio, which is still
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: basically an elite level number. 11.3 Ks per nine is
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: also very good. He's also good against Toronto. Not shocking.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: 26 at bats. It's a small sample. Only six of
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced him. Really the only one that's
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: done anything against him pretty much is Vlad Guerrero. Besides him,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: the only other hit is one single from Kirk. Overall,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: they have a 154 average against him. They only have
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: two hitters who have a hit off him. 377 OPS
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: is very low, 8-1 strikeout walk ratio. So I do
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: think this game is probably an under again. Well, not
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: again because yesterday pushed, but we don't see the percentages
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: on this. Oddsmakers seem to think so. The total is
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: low at 7.5%. And, yeah, I think that's how I
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: would play this. I think I would play the under
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: in this one. I don't think I really want to
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: fade DeGrom, even though it looks like maybe Toronto being
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit extra motivated to avoid the sweep. And
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: maybe Toronto is the slight way to lean here because
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: they do probably have a bullpen edge, but their bullpen
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: is going to be out there all game pretty much.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: And Texas is at minus 160, and that's where I
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: think maybe you get some value on Toronto is that
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: you know you have to pay extra for DeGrom. You're
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: going to overpay for DeGrom, basically. And for the way
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: that Texas has been playing recently, Texas has been playing recently,
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: I mean. So, yeah, maybe Toronto make it like a
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: plus one run line is possibly the approach to take
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: on the side. But I think the way to play
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: this game is definitely the under, though, if you're going
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: to play that game. You're looking at seven and a
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: half juice to the under. So the odds makers do
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: think it is going to be a low scoring game.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: And I tend to agree with that. Seattle and Colorado.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Colorado got the win yesterday. I told you I thought
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: they might have a decent shot at getting that win.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they did it in the first
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: five or not, though. Let me see. they didn't. That's ridiculous.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: So Colorado won the game because they had an outburst
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: in the seventh inning. So if you took them first five,
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't have won. Man, that is ridiculous. In the
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: return of Quintana, and yeah, Bryce Miller didn't really pitch
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: that bad yesterday. Anyway, Seattle, I mean, they're effectively, I
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: think they're pretty much eliminated at this point. So I
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: don't know how much motivation they're going to have, but
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: maybe after losing yesterday to a bad Colorado team, maybe
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: that'll motivate them. Seattle used four relief pitchers yesterday. Neither
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen has been good this year, but Seattle's is the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: better of the two. Colorado used three. Colorado's ranked 27th
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen. They're not good. Seattle, not that much better, really, though,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: at number 21. And their ERA is not really very good.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: Both ERAs in the mid-fours or worse. Colorado is the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number five. Seattle's offense has been a
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: struggle most of the season. They're number 27. Cade Anderson
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: is getting the start for Seattle. He should be the
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: better starter here, although he's young and hasn't done that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: well yet at the major league level. 5.33 ERA, 1.42 whip.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: I know he was tearing it up in AA, and
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Seattle skips AAA, but to me it seems like they
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: moved him up a little bit too quickly, and he
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good yet, and he has not been
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: good on the road. 7.27 road ERA, so that might
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: be a problem, having to pitch in a stadium like this,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: although he's not really that much of a fly ball pitcher.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit fly ball leaning, but not so
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: much that you really have to worry that much about
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: the home runs. I think, but I guess we'll see.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: But he's allowed four home runs so far in 25
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: and a third innings, two in his first outing, and
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: since then he's kind of settled down. His hit rate
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: is still too high, though. His walk rate is okay.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is just okay. He's got a 2.6
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio and 7.5 Ks per nine so far.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: That's not that dominance that we were seeing in AA,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: of course. The major leagues are a completely different animal, man.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: And Anderson, after he had his best start against Texas,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: he regressed, and he had a bad start last time
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: out against Anaheim. They hit him pretty hard, and Anaheim,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: not a good offense. So that is not a good
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: sign for Anderson. He is unfamiliar to Colorado, so at
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: least there's that. But I definitely have my concerns with
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: him bitching in this particular game and in this particular ballpark.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching for the Rockies. He's completely fallen off.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: He was 12-5 on his win-loss record at one point,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: and now he's 12-10. Yeah, he's completely fallen off, man. 5.49 ERA, 1.36 whip. Yeah,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe indicative of his ERA should be a
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: little bit better than that, but it's not great. He's
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: slightly better at home somehow, 5.35 home ERA, but.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty bad over the last month plus at
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: this point. Bad August, bad September. ERA around eight over
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: that entire span. Very, very bad. Colorado's lost almost all
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: of those games. They've lost all but one. They've lost
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: five of his last six starts, let's say. He's got
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: a high hit rate. His walk rate's not bad. His
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is really low, though. He allows a lot
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: of fly balls, so it seemed like it was not
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: going to be a good thing with him going to Colorado.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: And turns out it wasn't, even though he had kind
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: of a decent season for the majority of the season, though.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: But he's really, really been bad recently. 2.5 strikeout walk
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: ratio is not good. 5.4. Ks per nine is not good.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: 11 of five strikeout walk ratio over the past month
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: is not good. And his numbers against Seattle are a
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: little bit hard to figure. 34 at bats, 294 average
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: a lot is definitely high, but 697 OPS is low.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: So they've hit him for contact, but they haven't hit
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: him for power. Four strikeouts, one walk. I don't know
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: what we do with this game, man. I mean... There
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: are probably more indicators in this game towards an over
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: than anything else, but I wouldn't want to do it.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: And the total you know is going to be one
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: of those Coors totals. It's at 11. You might be
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: able to find a 10.5 with some heavy juice out there.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: The Lion book has it at 10.5 minus 120, so
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: that might be the best option for the over there
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: because you get it below that key number of 11.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: We don't see the percentages on the over or on
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: the total here, but yeah, I think maybe the over
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense, but it's a little bit high
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: given that these starting pitchers might not be bad enough
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: to start this thing outright, but I don't know, man.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: 71% of tickets, 87% of the cash on seattle at
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: about minus 160 something i probably agree with seattle i
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: think they should have the pitching edge really throughout this
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: game so maybe like a minus one run line with
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: seattle at least they'll bat guaranteed in the ninth inning
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: they probably bounce back and get the win there but
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: it remains to be seen man it's not a game
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: i'm interested in at all i'll be right back i'll
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: talk about the rest of these games i have one
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: more play in one of these you might be able
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: to figure out what it is maybe it's a And
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: then I do have a WNBA play today as well,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to talk about that as well in
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: a second. Yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: are on an 0-7 run over the last two days
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: after tonight. It was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season, man, with Wiccans. Slump.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: with you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, next
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: game up is Minnesota and Anaheim. This game, this is
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: an extra inning game. These next two games went extra
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: innings yesterday. And we know these are not good bullpens
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: in this one. Minnesota used a bunch of relief pitchers.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: They used six, I think is what that is. Although
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: it is September call-ups, so the bullpens are expanded here,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: but even so, Anaheim used six as well, it looks like.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: These are bullpens I would definitely be fading. Minnesota, number
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: 29 in bullpen. They're one of the bottom five at
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: the very least, and Anaheim is a little bit better
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: than that at number 22, but still not a very
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: good bullpen. Minnesota's the better offense, number 14. Anaheim is
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: still dead last at 30th. Dean Creamer getting the start
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: for Minnesota here. 5.35 ERA, but his whip isn't that
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: bad at 1.24, so I think he's a little bit
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: better than his ERA makes him look, although he has
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: not been good on the road. 6.11 road ERA. He's
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: been somewhat decent recently, though. His last two starts were
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: both pretty good. He had an 8-2 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: over that stretch against Detroit and the Yankees. So he's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: in decent recent form at the very least. He's got
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: an okay hit rate. His walk rate is low. He
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk, guys. His strikeout rate is okay, too.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: So his numbers aren't really that bad. He's kind of
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: a mediocre pitcher, even though I've never really been a fan. 2.8
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 8.6 Ks per nine. Those numbers are
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: not that bad. Against Anaheim, he is pretty good. 37 at-bats,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: 135 average allowed, 463 OPS. It's only six hitters that
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: have faced him, though. And a lot of them are
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: Josh Lowe, but he has not done much against him.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: Ten strikeouts, four walks. Three of those walks are low, though.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: And Trout is only one for eight off him with
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: a home run, though. But I think Kramer does set
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: up to actually pitch okay here. against a bad offense
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: that he matches up pretty well against. And I think
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: Ryan Johnson is actually underrated at this point as well
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: for Anaheim. He's got a 4.88 ERA, 1.34 whip. He's
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: better at home, 4.2 home ERA. He's pitching well recently.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: He's got an 18-3 strikeout walk ratio this month. He's
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of his
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: outings going all the way back through the beginning of August,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: although some of those were shortened outings. But yeah, he's
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: pitching well right now. He's in good form. And I've
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: been saying for a while, I think he's not quite
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: as bad as his numbers look. He's still really young,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: so they're seeing what they have with him since their
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: season is over. They're Getting him used to the majors, man.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonable hit rate here, not bad. His
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: walk rate's a little bit too high, though, or probably
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: worse than that, actually. His strikeout rate is not good,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: but it is getting better recently. 1.8 strikeout walk ratio, yeah,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: that's not good, but it looks like he is improving
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: upon that. And seven strikeout per night, it looks like
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: he's improving on all that. Minnesota has seen him a
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: little bit. They have seven hitters who have seen him.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: They have 11 at-bats against him. They're only one for
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: 11 in The one hit is a home run from
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: Royce Lewis, but they have an 0-91 average against him.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: 649 OPS, 1-3 strikeout walk ratio. That's not good, but
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: what I think you have here is two pitchers that
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: are actually better than their numbers suggest. They have decent
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here. This game, I would say first five
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: under is the way to play this one. The total
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: is not really that high at 8.5. 91% of the
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: tickets are on the over. 87% of the cash on
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: the over. You got to avoid the bullpens here, but
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: I'm tempted, man. I'm tempted to add this one to
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: my card. Let me see. Let me see what Action
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: Network looks like on this. Because I had a lot
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: of games where I had a little bit of an
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: opinion on it, and I'm like, eh, I don't think
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: it's strong enough. But let me see. What does the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: total look like in this one? Twins Angels. It's definitely
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: looking like a public over here. Let me see. In
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: the first five... You can get under 4.5 at minus
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: 110 at FD right now. At the Aaron Burr, Alexander
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: Hamilton book. You know what? Fuck it. It's going to lose,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: but let's do it. Let's add that extra play. I
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: like it, dude. I think it's a really sneaky one.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: I think it's under the radar. So this is Minnesota, Anaheim,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: first five, under 4.5. Sometimes you got to go, you know,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: you got to go with the sneaky plays, man. Uh,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: like ugly underdogs for one thing, but also games where like,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: nobody's going to want to touch something like this. You
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? But I think these pictures are
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: definitely better than their numbers suggest. And they match up
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: our right here. So twins angels under in the first five,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: only four and a half. At least we're not having
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: to deal with a three and a half there or
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: anything like that. So yeah, let's do that.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: Um, Next game is Miami-San Diego on ESPN Unlimited. San
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: Diego got another win yesterday in extra innings. Miami is
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: eliminated now, so that's going to be the question. Is
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: Miami going to be motivated to avoid the sweep here?
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Or.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: Are they just going to fizzle out? Are they like
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: dream crushed? You know what I mean? Because San Diego
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: is the only team with motivation to win here. But
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: the thing is, they have a big lead on Arizona now.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: So San Diego's motivation might be a little bit less
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: so right now because they might just be feeling really
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: good about their positioning right now, way ahead of Arizona
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: at this point. So I guess we'll see. But yeah,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, Miami technically is trying to avoid the sweep here.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: San Diego's got the better bullpen, but they used a
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: lot of guys in that extra inning game. They used
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: six guys out of the bullpen. Miami actually used fewer yesterday.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: They used four. Miami's not a terrible bullpen. They're ranked 11th,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: although I think they're a little bit worse than that.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: San Diego's ranked 7th, and I think they're slightly better
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: than that, though. But given the usage, San Diego's bullpen
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: edge is a little bit less. Miami has been the
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: better offense this year. They're number 8. San Diego is...
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: where where the hell are they they've moved up i
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: know they're number seven i'm used to looking way down
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: they're number 17 right now tied with texas sandy alcantara
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: is getting the start from miami good season from him 3.84
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: era 1.23 whip is all right he's not as good
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: on the road though 4.41 road era although this is
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark in san diego now as i
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: mentioned in that um Game where I think we had
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: the over the other day, and I believe it didn't
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: get there. Alcantara pitched him relief in that game. He
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: actually got a save in the game against Arizona. He pitched,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: I think, in the ninth inning then the other day,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: which is weird because it might throw him off schedule. Like,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: he's still pitching on schedule here. His actual start was
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: on the 14th. That was his last scheduled start. His
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: next scheduled start was going to be today anyway. And
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: I was like, well, are they going to pitch him today?
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: Because he pitched one inning in relief on the 16th,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: two days after he made a start. So I was
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: surprised they did that. And the answer is, yeah, this
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: is like some old school stuff right here, man. They're like, whatever.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Use Alcantara in relief a little bit, and let's have
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: him start on schedule again. Which, maybe keeping him on
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: schedule like that will... Help him. You know what I mean?
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: I'm just wondering if him pitching out of the bullpen
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: is going to throw him off schedule a little bit.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll see, I guess. Over the course
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: of the season, his hit rate's a little bit too high, really,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate's low. His strikeout rate is also
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: too low, though. So he's kind of changed the way
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: that he pitches. He's got a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: You know, he went through Tommy John surgery or whatever.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: He still does throw, like, upper 90s fastball, though. But
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: you'd think its strikeout rate would not have dropped as
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: much as it has. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 6.5
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: Ks per nine is definitely not great. Against San Diego,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: he's not as good as you would think. At 74 at-bats,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: 297 average allowed, 761 OPS, 13 to 5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: So given... That Alcantara's not excellent against San Diego, and
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: he's not that good on the road. This might be
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: a spot where you actually kind of fade him, but
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: do you want to back Walker Bueller here in this one?
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: Do you want to fade Miami trying to avoid the sweep?
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure, but maybe that Miami's now officially eliminated.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe they will, you know... not have as much motivation.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: Walker Bueller is kind of hard to back, though. He's
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: obviously the lesser of these two pitchers in general. He's
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: got a 4.58 ERA, 1.37 whip. He is better at home, though,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: so he has the better home road split here, 4.11
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Not really in good recent form. He's just
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: not going deep into these outings. His walk rate is
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit too high is really what it is.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if I really want to trust
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: him here. He's got a hit rate on the season
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: that's too high. His walk rate is not great. His
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate isn't really that great either. 2.3 strikeout walk
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: ratio is not really that good. 7.7Ks for nine is
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: all right, but still all right-ish, I guess. Bueller is
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: pretty good against Miami, though, and 29 at-bats, 207 average,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: 648 OPS, 9-4 strikeout walk ratio. Not a good ratio,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: but the rest of these numbers are pretty good, so...
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: Given the pitching matchup here, I probably do lean San
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: Diego in this one. They have 86% in tickets, 93%
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: in the cash on them. They're around minus 130-something here
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: on the price. Money seems to also be maybe backing
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: the over, but it's a public over here. The total
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: is around 8, 8.5%. I don't know. I think maybe
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: San Diego gets another win here. They might be the
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: right side as they maybe continue to play with motivation
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: to try to completely seal this thing up. But Miami
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: is still trying to avoid the sweep, so maybe there
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: will be some motivation there. Generally, Alcantara is still the
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: better pitcher, so I don't know. Next game up will
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: be a play for me in Yankees and Diamondbacks. And
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: I'm focusing on the starting pitching in this one. And
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: this will be, if I get this wrong, I'll be
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: double pissed because it is going in the same direction
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: as my bias. We're going to take Arizona in the
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: first five here. I mean, you're looking at a desperate
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: Arizona team here, man. Arizona did win yesterday, so they
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: seem to split the series so far. But Arizona, they
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: got to win games to have any shot at making
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: the playoffs at this point because San Diego just won't lose.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are obvious. They've already clinched a playoff spot,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. It's just a matter of can they really
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: catch Tampa Bay at this point. So the Yankees, to me,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: it seems like they have a little bit less to
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: play for. Arizona's playing for their lives pretty much at
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: this point. So they're a desperate home team at this
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: point here. Arizona is not the better bullpen, so that's
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: why I'm going to cut them out of the equation here.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: They used four relief pitchers yesterday. The Yankees used three.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are the better bullpen. They're ranked fourth here,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: but they're tied in second in whip, and their ERA
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: is tied in first with the Red Sox, so they're
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: still one of the top two bullpens in my opinion.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: Arizona is number five, which isn't too bad, but I
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: think they're not quite that good. There may be... Top
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: 15 bullpen, I would say, is really more accurate for them.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are the better offense. They're number 12, although
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: I think Judge is hurt again, as I mentioned yesterday.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: Arizona is number 21 right now, but maybe the Yankees'
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: offense will struggle a little bit more. I'm pretty sure
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: Judge is out, right? Let me make sure of that.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: Look at their depth chart here. Seems like he just
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: can't stay healthy yet. Judge is out, and Jazz Chisholm
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: looks like he's out right now as well. and Spencer
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: Jones' day-to-day. But this is really mostly about the starting pitching.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: I think we get the better starter with Arizona here.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees. I know the
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: last time I think I tried to fade him, it
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: didn't work out, which was in a game where I
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: played an over, and it did not hit. But he
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: has a 3.89 ERA. 1.36 whip is not really that good, though.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse on the road, 3.96 roadie.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a hitter friendly park here
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: although the yankees park is also hitter friendly warren i
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: mean he's not going deep into a lot of his
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: recent outings here he's definitely not allowing a lot of
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: runs so i'll give him that but I don't know, man.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think this is going to be a
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: difficult assignment for him that he's not really as good
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: as maybe those numbers make him look. His hit rate
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: is too high on the season. It's over one per inning.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: He's given up a decent amount of home runs. His
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: walk rate is mediocre. His strikeout rate is fairly good,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: which is his one good number. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio, 8.9
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: case per night. Even that's lower than what he posted
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: the last couple of years. But the clincher for me
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: is that he's not good against Arizona, although it's only
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: 21 at-bats, but most of their hitters have faced him.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: Four strikeouts, three walks, 286 average, 804 OPS. So I
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: think Warren might give up something here in this one,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: and I hope that it's enough that we will be
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: able to win by backing Corbin Burns here, who returned
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: not too long ago, and he's had one good start
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: and one bad start so far. And we backed him
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: in the good start, and we only got a push
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: in that one, I'm pretty sure, in the first five.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: But Burns has a 5.87 ERA. 1.17 whip, though, tells
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: you that he is not pitching poorly, though, really. So far,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: he's got six strikeouts, two walks, seven hits allowed in
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: seven and two-thirds innings. Five runs allowed last time out
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: against Miami because he allowed two home runs. And that
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: was his home start. So he did pitch badly in
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: his home start. But Burns has been an elite pitcher
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: throughout his career, man.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: And.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: Now that he's kind of getting back in the swing
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: of things, and Arizona won both games that he pitched
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: so far. They were both close, so that is true.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: But I think Burns, if he's anywhere near the level
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: that he used to be, I think he should be
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: able to get us the win here. And the other
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: thing I like about this is they're letting him go
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: deeper into each start. They held him to below 60
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: pitches the first time. They let him go 75 the
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: next time, and he almost made it five innings. And
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: that's pretty much what we need here is we need
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: him to go five innings, and I think he is
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: definitely capable of doing that. I think they may let
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: him do that here in this one. And Burns against
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, he's been decent in his career against them.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: 113 at-bats, 230 average, 681 OPS. I believe Burns was
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: on Baltimore at one point, right? Yeah, so the Yankees
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: probably saw a lot of him that year. It was
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: only for one season, though. 34-13 strikeout walk ratio. But, yeah,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: I think we get the better starting pitcher here, man.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: And maybe he's a little bit under the radar right
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: now because people forgot about him and because his ERA
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: doesn't look that good.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: He's definitely capable, and if he's pitching, I would say,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: even if he's not at 100% of what he used
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: to be, I think he should be able to get
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: this done in this matchup. So that's what we're doing.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: D-backs first five here. Let me see. Yankees look like
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: they're getting the money, though. 72% of tickets, 86% of
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: cash on the Yankees. But the thing is, Arizona's like
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: a slight favorite here in this game. it's around a
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: pick them price and the, uh, for whatever reason, they're
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: not that much heavier. They're not even a heavier favorite
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: at all in the first five, which doesn't make any
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: sense to me. You'd think that the biggest advantage they
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: have here is the first five, the starting pitching. So
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: that is kind of weird to me, but whatever. But
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: you think the public would be looking at this and
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: thinking Yankees have the better record. Like I get them
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: as the underdog and the public would be leaning towards
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: grabbing the Yankees as the underdog. Oh, by the way,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: the line did flip the Yankees open as the favorite.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: And now the, uh, D-backs are the favorite here, and
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: I think they're the favorite for a reason, man. Yeah.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: I just think it's desperation times for Arizona here, man. So, yeah,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: even though we have 72% of tickets, 86% of the
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: cash on the Yankees or whatever, my play is the
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: D-backs first five. Stacks, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: All right, San Francisco and L.A., we have no idea
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: who the Dodgers are starting here. It looks like it
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: was supposed to be Yamamoto. It would be his turn
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: in the rotation, but maybe they're skipping him. You know,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: Dodgers kind of getting ready for the playoffs at this point,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: so maybe they're pushing him back. I don't know who's
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: going to start for them here in this game, so
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: that makes this game pretty difficult to predict. The Dodgers
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: are obviously the better team in a lot of ways, though.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: They used four relief pitchers yesterday in what I believe
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: was another win, I'm pretty sure. They beat San Francisco.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: So San Francisco is trying to avoid the sweep here. Yeah,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers have crushed them in this series. The Dodgers
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: have outscored them 18-6 in the two games in this series. But,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: you know, San Francisco maybe a little bit extra motivation
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: just to try to avoid the sweep here at least. Dodgers,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: the only thing they're really playing for at this point
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: is to try to get the number one seed because
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: it's between them and Milwaukee at this point. Dodgers do
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: have the better of the two bullpens here. They're number 13,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: and San Francisco's number 24. Although they're bullpen ERA, San
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: Francisco's isn't really that bad. It's not that much worse
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: than L.A.'s. L.A. 's the number two offense. They're definitely
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: way better offensively. San Diego's 19th, and I don't even
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: think they're that good. As I keep saying, San Francisco
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: is going with tugboat. Matt Wilkinson is the starter here.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: Still doesn't have his picture up. on ESPN, he's got
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: a 4.58 ERA so far, 1.12 whip is not bad,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: but they're really limiting him, he's only really had one
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: full-fledged start, which was actually a pretty good appearance from
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: him against Arizona, but other than that, he's not gone
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: deep into his outings, his last two outings, he's only
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: gone five combined innings, and he hasn't allowed any runs,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: so he's pitching alright recently, it's just they're not letting
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: him go a lot of pitches right now, I guess
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: because San Francisco's going nowhere, they don't want to overwork
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: him and whatever, and He might wind up being a
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: relief pitcher. I honestly don't really know what the plan
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: is with him. His hit rate's all right. His walk
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: rate's pretty low. His strikeout rate is also low, though.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: He's not really a strikeout pitcher. He's got a three
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I think he, even though he's a
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: big dude, I think he relies more on off-speed stuff
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: and fooling guys that way. He's got a 5.5 strikeout
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: per nine, which is really unimpressive. The Dodgers have never
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so maybe Wilkinson could give you a
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: few good innings here against an offense that's unfamiliar with him.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: But this game is just massively, massively unpredictable, man. I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: don't even know if I want to give out a
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: lean at all on this game because you have no
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: idea what's going to happen. The total is 8.5. The
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are about a minus 270 favorite here. I think
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: who the Dodgers decide is starting here is going to
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: matter quite a bit here in this game potentially, so...
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: That's all I can really say about it. I just
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: have no clue. I would not blindly play this game, though.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: All right. But San Francisco's bullpen is probably going to
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: pitch a lot of this game, though. So I guess
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: if you're going to play this game blindly at all,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: Dodgers' team total over maybe is the way to go here,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: even though they might struggle to get anything off of Wilkinson.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: They should be able to get something at least off
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: of San Francisco's bullpen, but then the problem is if
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are winning, they won't hit in the ninth inning,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: but they've gone over their total in both games in
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: the series so far. If you do it, you'll need
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: them to get to about six runs here probably, though,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: so we will see. And then Milwaukee-Baltimore is the peacock
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: night game here. Baltimore is trying to hang on for
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: their lives here, man. They're not eliminated yet. They're trying
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: to desperately hold on to any hope of making the playoffs.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: It's not going to happen. They'd have to overtake all
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: of Toronto. They'd have to overtake Toronto, one of Texas
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: or Houston, depending on which one doesn't win the division,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: and either Cleveland or the White Sox, depending on who
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: wins the division. So, Baltimore would need to overtake three
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: different teams. And it's not even known which teams those
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: are at this point. So, I don't think they're making
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. But Baltimore is also on the verge of
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: getting swept here, and they're playing a night game against
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: the Brewers. So you got to think there will be motivation,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: at least, on the Baltimore side here to try to
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep at home. They've only lost each game
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: of the series by one run, which is a tough break.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: Problem is, if you want Baltimore here, you got to
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: fade Jacob Mizurowski in this one. Do I want to
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: do that? No, although you're probably having to pay way
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: too much of a price if you want to back
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee in this one. Milwaukee used two elite pitchers yesterday.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: They are the better bullpen here. Baltimore is an okay bullpen.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: They used one guy yesterday. Milwaukee is number nine in bullpen,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: but they're like a top five bullpen. Baltimore is number 10.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: That's probably about right for what they are. Milwaukee's the
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number four. Baltimore number 22, tied with Philly.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: Jacob Mizurowski pitching from Milwaukee. I mean, sorry, Garrett, but yeah,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: Miz has bounced back nicely from that one bad start
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: he had against the Cubs. He's going to win the
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: Cy Young. He's got a 1.89 ERA,. 81 whip. He's
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: not even that bad on the road, 2.23 road ERA.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: Still really good there. Milwaukee's won his last seven starts,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: including the one where he didn't even pitch that well
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs, and they've won 10 of his last
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: 11 as well. He's still pitching the way that he
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: usually pitches, except he's been slightly wild recently, but... Other
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: than that, he's pitching really well. He does have a
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: little bit of wildness to him, but he's mostly had
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: that down this year. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, even given that he has a little
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: bit of wild tendencies. I mean, he throws ridiculously hard,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: so sometimes those pitches are a little bit off. Sometimes
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: it helps a little bit. Sometimes a little bit of
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: wildness helps keep batters On their toes, you know what
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: I mean? Off guard. You can't just throw everything over
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: the plate. Even if you are throwing hard, batters can
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: hit that. You know what I mean? This is the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: modern baseball. modern Major League Baseball. Pretty much every batter
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: can hit a 100-mile-an-hour fastball at this point. But Miz
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: throws 103, man, consistently. He's got a really high strikeout
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: rate as well, one of the highest in baseball. 5.8
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 13.1 Ks per nine. Yeah, we get it.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: He's elite. Baltimore only has one hitter who's faced him,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: Pete Alonzo, 0 for 2 with a strikeout off him.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: No walks. So do I think Mizurowski's going to pitch poorly? Obviously,
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: I do not. The rare starts that he has that
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: are not good are pretty much unpredictable. Brandon Young is
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the Orioles. He's been okay, 3.65 ERA, 1.37 whip.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse at home, though, 3.95 home ERA.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: He looks like he was good last time against the Mets.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: One run allowed in five innings, but he walked five guys.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: So his command has been a little bit off. Didn't
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: pitch well the previous game. Gave up a bunch of
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: runs to Cleveland. So I don't really think he's in
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: great form right now. I don't really want to back
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: him here. He's got a high hit rate kind of
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: on the season. That's not good. His walk rate is
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: even worse than that. So he does put too many
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: guys on base. And his strikeout rate's not really that
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: good either. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio. 7.3 Ks per nine.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are not great. Milwaukee only has one guy
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: who's faced and bone ailer is over one with a
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: walk off them. Um, do with all that info what
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: you want. I mean, I guess because of young's unfamiliarity,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: I guess maybe the under in this one, uh, it's a,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: it's a low total of seven and a half. So
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: the odds makers are kind of telling you it should
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: be low scoring, but we have 67% of tickets, 91%
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, but I think maybe
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: the pitching is good enough. Um, I think the starting
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: pitching might be good enough, plus the bullpens might be
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: good enough to get you the under. That might be
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: the way I would lean here. Also, Milwaukee's minus 200
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: on the money line, and the money is coming in
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: against them. 79% of tickets, 72% of the cash on Milwaukee.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree situationally with trying to grab Baltimore
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: here in some way, like on the run line, but
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: they just don't have an advantage anywhere here, man. They
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: don't have the better starter. They don't have the better bullpen.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: You know, it's baseball, so maybe motivation might get it
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: done for them, but I don't know if it's enough, man.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: For me, the way that I handicap it, it isn't,
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. Maybe I'm just not good
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: at handicapping baseball at this point. I don't know, man.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: We'll go over to WNBA. I'll give you a WNBA play,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: and then I will get out of here, and I'm
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: going to answer a Stacks question in one second here.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: Let me see. All right. Steelers, yeah. You can go
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: check out my show from last night as well. I
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: talked about it there. I think New England covers. New
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: England has extra time off. Even though people will say, well,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: New England just had a big game against Seattle in
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl revenge. Yeah, but it was a really
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: ugly game where New England didn't score much at all,
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: and they wound up losing to a backup quarterback. So
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think New England's going to get much credit.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: in the public's eyes for that performance. New England has
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: extra rest here, and the Steelers, they didn't look good
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. The one good thing for the Steelers, though,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: is that they got that first game out of their
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: way with the new coach, McCarthy, even though Rogers is
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: familiar with him, but a lot of the teammates aren't.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh probably should improve a little bit offensively from
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: that gross offensive performance they had against Atlanta in the
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: first game, but I still think the Patriots probably get
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: this one done here in this one, and Technically, it's
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: revenge for last year, and maybe it means something because
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: New England only had like two home losses last year,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: and one of them was to the Steelers, or three actually.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: The second of the three was to the Steelers, and
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: it was a very misleading result. If you look at
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: that game, the Patriots had a bunch of turnovers in
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: that game, and that's why they lost that game. Statistically,
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: they should have won it, but it is a different
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: Steelers team this year, although the Steelers are going to
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: be without Michael Pittman in this game, but the Patriots
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: are without A.J. Brown, so both teams Teams are without
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: their top wide receiver here. So, I mean, I don't know.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: Maybe also an under. I don't really do many totals there.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: But it would seem like the Patriots would be correlated
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: to more of an over. The money is slightly tilted
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: towards the over. The money in that game is coming
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: in on New England, which I'll do kind of a
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: final market read with the NFL in a minute, though. WNBA,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: hold on here. This site is not... I think it's
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: just JavaScript. It's just not triggering fast. All right, let's
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: try to get through these. Minnesota at Connecticut. I don't
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: have much on this game, but Minnesota did just lose
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: at home kind of badly to the Liberty. As I'm
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: going to point out when I talk about the Liberty game,
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: this is a little bit misleading. Minnesota had a really
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: bad shooting performance, and the Liberty shot well. It was
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: like an outlier. The Liberty, I think, had like seven
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: more three-pointers made in the game. So it was a
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: bit of an outlier where you should see some regression happen.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: So the Lynx should definitely do better at some point here. Plus,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's got to win here, man, because otherwise they're going
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: to fall out of the number one seed here with
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: Golden State only a half game behind them as we
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: have a few games left. of the regular season here
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: I think Minnesota doesn't want to lose the number one
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: seed here if they could help it so I think
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: they at least have that motivation but will they actually
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: cover a massive number on the road here against Connecticut
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: maybe not I mean Connecticut looked awful in their last
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: game against Atlanta yeah they're coming back home but they're
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: only returning home from a single road game because remember
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: there was a huge break in here for the World
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: Cup of basketball or whatever So I wouldn't lay it
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: with Minnesota. I mean, it's 17 and a half on
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: the road. That is just not something in my repertoire,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: especially not doing it with the best team in the league.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: 87% of the tickets and 91% of the cash on Connecticut.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think the public is really playing
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: this game. So I think it's mostly professional money. And
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: if you like Connecticut plus the points, the good thing
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: for you is it's a low total in the 160s,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: so that is a little bit better for the underdog
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: to cover if it's going to be a lower-scoring game.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: So I would slightly link Connecticut there, but that is
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: not my play, needless to say, even though I am
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: known for these ugly plays, though. And, oh, it's ugly.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: It's ugly. It's a very similar play to that. Well,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: it's not that similar because we're fading... The other team
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: that was in that New York-Minnesota matchup that was the
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: team that looked too good in that game. That's what
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: we're going to do here in this one. We're taking
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: Toronto plus 14.5 here in WNBA. We're going to fade
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: New York. Even though I know New York is fighting
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: for playoff positioning and whatever, but... How much motivation does
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: that give them, really? They're somewhere in the bottom half
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: of the playoff standings right now. They're going to wind
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: up somewhere between 6 and 8. And yeah, ideally they
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: want to not have to face Minnesota, but you don't
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: even know if Minnesota is going to be 1 or
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: 2 right now either, though, so it's kind of stupid
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: to really look at that. But I just think that
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: New York is in a sandwich spot here, man. So
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not really looking at the motivation that much here.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: Toronto is out of it. They're not making the playoffs.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: But this is going to be one of Toronto's biggest
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: games remaining. You know what I mean? Now, for New York,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to have that much motivation
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: in this game. They just beat Minnesota on the road, man.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: That was a huge win, a huge upset win for
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: New York on the road. I didn't expect it to happen.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: But if you look at what happened in this game,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: Minnesota was an awful game. They just had an awful
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: shooting performance. 39% from the field, terrible. 27% from three,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: while like I said, the Liberty hit seven more threes
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: and shot 45% from three. That's going to regress. I mean,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: 46% from the field is a bit normal, but 45%
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: from three, huge outlier in this game for the Liberty
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: hitting all these threes. So I think this was a
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: little bit of a misleading result here. The game was
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: close statistically otherwise. It was close in rebounds, close in
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: number of possessions. So I don't think this game was
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: exactly what it looked like. And the final score was
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: the largest lead the Liberty had in the game. So
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: I think at that point, the game got a little
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: bit out of control probably at the end. And the
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: Liberty did pull away in the fourth quarter. So the
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: game was closer than that for most of the game.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: So it's a misleading result, plus it was a huge
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: win for the Liberty. And not only that, but the
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: Liberty have a bigger game on deck against Atlanta, and
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: in fact, I believe they finished the regular season with
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: two games against Atlanta. So what's the game that they
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: have remaining that they're going to focus the least on? Yeah,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: it's going to be this Toronto game. You know what
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: I mean? Plus, well, the last time they played in Toronto,
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: they actually lost the game, 93-91 in July, but I
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: just don't think they're going to I don't think that's
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: going to help motivate them enough, man. I don't. I
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: don't think revenge for some game a couple months ago
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: matters much. The Liberty just beat Minnesota on the road, man.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: And they got Atlanta in the remaining two games back
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: at home. And those games are TV games, whereas this
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: is not. So this looks like a really tough spot.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: It's a sandwich spot for the Liberty. I do not
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: think they're going to be focused enough to cover this number.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: And for Toronto, yeah, they've had a bad inaugural season, whatever.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: They haven't won since August 21st. It's before the World
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: Cup break. They lost again coming out of the break.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: They lost to Indiana, pretty ugly. They're staying at home, though,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: so Toronto's not even traveling here. New York has to
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: come in from Minnesota here, so New York is traveling.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: Toronto is not. Toronto's staying at home, and you've got
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: to think this is Toronto's biggest remaining game. It's their
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: final home game of their inaugural season, so you've got
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: to think they're going to step it up, try to
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: give their home crowd a win, whatever crowd shows up.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: Try to give the crowd that wants to go and
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: see the trans mascots, man. I know I'm playing on
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: the team that has those, but this is just... Dude,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: I want to give out winners on the show, and
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: that's just what this is. is hopefully we're going to
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: get a win with this it's the way that I
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: handicap man we need to get back on the winning
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: side of WNBA I think we're like two games below
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: 500 right now Toronto Yeah, this is obviously their biggest
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: remaining game. Like, the road games against Chicago and Connecticut,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: playing out the stretch, whatever. This is their biggest game
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: remaining because they get one more shot at a playoff team.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: They were able to beat them here at home once before,
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: like I said, so it's not unprecedented here. And we
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: don't even need them to win. We only need them
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: to cover here. New York has 83% of tickets, 89%
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. They're 14 and a half, but... Yeah,
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think the.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: Professional money is really going to play new york in
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: this one i think the way that i handicap is
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: um leading me to the right uh play in this
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: one so let's do it we've had some bad breaks
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: in the wmba this year too though man like a
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: decent number of bullshit losses and this better not be
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: another one of those if it's a loss it better
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: just be a legitimate one uh but yeah i like
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: toronto in this one the total is not that low
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: it's in the 170s but even so um I say
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: we take Toronto plus the points. It's all about the spot.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: Washington and Indiana, these two teams are both going to
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs. So we will see. Indiana had
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: that win over Toronto. I believe that was their first
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: game coming out of the break. Now they're back at home.
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: Both teams, I think, probably will show up for this.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: It's an NBA TV game. It's I don't know if
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: I'm going to say it's a playoff preview, but both
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: of these teams are playoff teams here. Washington out of
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: the break. I don't know if they've played one or
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: two games since then, but they beat the Sky in
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: their last game very easily. What do we do with
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: this game? I kind of like Washington just because they
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: have the better defense, man, and that's really what it's about.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: Indiana's laying six and a half here, 83% of tickets,
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash. I mean, know how hyped Indiana
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: is with Kaitlin Clark and whatever. They're the team the
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: public's going to want to play. If the public is
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: playing any of these teams today, they'll probably play Indiana.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: Washington has more of an ugly style where they play
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: good defense, and they're the better defense. And you know
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: that's what I like when I don't really have another–
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: like situational angle to look at. Plus the money is
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under here. And I think that's
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: correlated at least to Washington. I think if Washington is
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: going to be able to cover here, they're going to
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 2: ugly the game up and make it a lower scoring game.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: It'll be tough because usually the better team and home
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: team control the pace. And that's Indiana. And Indiana wants
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: to go fast. But Washington is the better defense. And
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: I think they can muddy this up. And I would
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: lean towards Washington covering in that game. Although it is
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: definitely a high total, though. At 178.5, which does indicate...
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's more of an Indiana total for sure.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: But the money is coming in on the under for
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: what that's worth. Portland at LA. I mean, these two teams... Yeah,
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, they have nothing left to play for here,
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: but it is a home game on USA Network for L.A.,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: so given that, maybe L.A. has a little bit more
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: motivation here to show up and look good in a
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: home TV game. The records, I think, are a little
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: bit misleading. Portland's record is slightly better than L.A. 's,
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: but I don't think Portland's really that much the better
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: team here. The odds makers have them as slightly better,
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: with L.A. being a 1-1.5-point favorite here, but I think
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards the home team team here and
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: really for this one it's mostly because of the rest
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: situation Portland is not in a good rest situation here
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: Portland's playing their third game in four days so they
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: played two games out of the break they lost both
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: of them one was tough at home against Phoenix they
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: went out to Golden State now they're coming down to
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: LA but a third game in four days all in
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: different cities that's not easy to do man so I
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: think that's The biggest edge that L.A. has in this
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: game is the rest situation. L.A., they did play at Dallas,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: but that's the only game they played out of the
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: break so far. So they have not played since Thursday.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: So L.A. is playing one fewer game in that stretch here.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: So I think they have the better situational setup here.
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: So I would lean to L.A. in this one. We
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: have 87% of tickets, 94% of the cash on Portland, though.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: But maybe Portland's a public side.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: And then the last game, we don't even have a
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: line on it. Seattle and Vegas... This is USA Network
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: and CNBC. Vegas just beat Seattle in Seattle, and boy,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: did they beat them. They beat them 114-77. Vegas, I mean,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: it wasn't exactly misleading. Vegas dominated the game statistically. It
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: was not a close game, but any score that's that
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: much of a blowout has got to at least be
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: somewhat misleading. You know what I mean? But Was it
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: misleading enough that Vegas shouldn't cover a 15.5, 16.5 point
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: favorite here? I'm not so sure. But I do kind
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: of lean to Seattle here just because it is kind
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: of that zigzag situation where it's a road revenge angle,
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it. Vegas, everything went so
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: well in that game for them against Seattle. Vegas, they
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: got nothing to fix here, you know what I mean?
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: Whereas Seattle... will have adjustments to make at the very
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: least and try to show up for this game. And
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: Vegas has not been that dominant at home this year,
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: even though Seattle's very, very bad on the road. No
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: doubt about that. But Vegas is only 13-7 at home,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: which is good, but not excellent. So, yeah, I would
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: play Seattle. I think Vegas does not have a big
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: game on deck remaining, though I don't think it's a
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: look ahead. I think they're playing some weak team in
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: their last game. Well, they're playing L.A. next, on ESPN
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: at least, though, but then they're playing Phoenix. Maybe they
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: look ahead to that just because it is a home
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: ESPN game against one of the original teams in the league, LA.
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: So maybe that is a little bit of a look ahead.
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: And Vegas, I believe Vegas used to be the San Antonio,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: what the hell were they? Whatever the hell the San
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: Antonio team was. The San Antonio Stars, is that what
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: they were? Whatever it is, they used to be them,
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. And then they moved to Vegas, so whatever.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: It's why Becky Hammond is there. She was a player
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: for San Antonio back in the day. She is Vegas' coach. Anyway,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Seattle here because I think, if anything,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: that last game, you know, it was just such a
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: blowout that I don't think Vegas is going to repeat that,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: at least. You know what I mean? And it's a
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: high price to lay for Vegas, minus 16.5. I would
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: lean towards taking the points to Seattle here just because
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: I think maybe they'll clean some things up from that
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: last game. Vegas might just not really care about this
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: game enough to really cover that number or something. Totals
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: in the mid to high 170s, though, like most of
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: the games are, which is kind of a high total.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: But I am still doing that with Toronto. All right,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: let's look at the NFL market read before I get
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: out of here real quick. So the market read is
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: still indicating on the Jets as the home underdog against
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: Green Bay. Although last night I talked about how I
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: kind of lead Green Bay in this one. Like, I
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: just think... the situ like from a situational standpoint it's
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: not really a fade spot for green bay there so
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: except for the fact that it's a road out of
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: conference game that game is tricky for me though so
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: i don't know uh it depends on which like i
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 2: don't know which one i'm gonna pick in my uh
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: pick them pools either so you know like which way
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: do you lean do you lean with the market here
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: or do you um Lean with Green Bay was way
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: better than they looked in the game against Minnesota. Well,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: you can go watch my show and you'll see my
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: analysis on that. I like to do the market read
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: quick here. The market is still agreeing with me on
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: playing Minnesota, plus the points here against what I think
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: is still an overrated Chicago team. Minnesota will be a
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: better defense that they have to face than Carolina was.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is going with Carson Wentz here at quarterback as
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: Murray is hurt. So technically that makes it an injured
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: player theory spot for Minnesota. So it might mean they'll
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: step it up a little bit extra. My problem is
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: Minnesota looked too good in that game against Green Bay
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: and they were not as good as that, but neither
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: team was quite as good as they looked. So I
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: do lean Minnesota. The market agrees with that. As I
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: already mentioned, the market does change. Agree with me in
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: the lean towards New England. Carolina's extremely public against Atlanta.
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great situational read on that one,
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: but to me it looks like you probably should fade
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: the public in that one and look towards Atlanta as
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: ugly as it is. It'll be sort of, well, not
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: really an injured player spot because Atlanta started Cooper Rush
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: last game, so that was the injured player spot last week.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: Cooper Rush will be starting against. I don't really exactly
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: want Atlanta either in that one. I don't love that
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: game by any means. The money is slightly indicating towards
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay here against Cleveland, although they're very public. It
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: is a low total. I would kind of lean towards
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: Cleveland still, plus the points in that one, low total.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: But Tampa Bay is probably my survivor pick at this
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: point because they have low future value, and they should
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: win this game. Hopefully they do, man. That's what I
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: got to say about that. The money is slightly indicated
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: towards Houston, but my read on this game was to
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: slightly lean Cincinnati based on the outcomes last week. And
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 2: I think I might still agree with myself on that one.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: The market read is not that strong on Houston. The
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: market is slightly indicating against Baltimore, but I said I
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: slightly lean Baltimore just because New Orleans had such a
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: crazy game last week in close call. I think that might...
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: put them in kind of a difficult spot here. So
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: that was kind of my opinion on that game. Well,
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: thank you stacks. I appreciate it. Uh, yeah, that's right. We,
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: we're monetized now on this channel, baby. Let's go. I appreciate,
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: I believe that's the first super chat. Uh, so thank you, sir.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: I think that's the first one we've gotten, uh, which
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: is sad. I know. Um, All right, and then we
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: got Philadelphia is definitely a heavily public side with the
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: money basically kind of disagreeing with it. It's hugely public. Plus,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: as I mentioned, the line has not moved above that
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: key number seven. So the books have not tried to
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: tease or kill this thing. I talked about teaser killing
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: and teasers last night. Go watch my show if you
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: want to learn more. something about that but what that
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: indicates to me is that the books are not scared
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: of the teasers that are going to come in on
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia so the books actually think Tennessee has a decent
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: shot to win this game and it is a low
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: total in that one too so I like Tennessee in
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: that one I agree with that I like the Chargers
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: to bounce back after their hideous performance in week one,
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 2: even though they're going to be without Ladd McConkie here. But,
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're getting the Chargers at, like, lower than
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: a touchdown here against the Raiders. I mean, come on, man.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: Even though, yeah, the Raiders may step it up because
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional game, but come on, man. The Chargers,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: nobody's going to really want them after last week's performance. So,
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: the money looks like it is agreeing with the Chargers here,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: and there isn't that much public action on them. So,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: I agree with that side on the Chargers there. I
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: like Denver to win against Jacksonville, though the money is
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: kind of indicating on Jacksonville still. Although I thought they
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: were going to wind up being a public underdog. I'm
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: still going to lean Denver in this one, though, because
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: they looked horrendous on Monday night. And there's that little
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: revenge aspect maybe for getting blown out by Jacksonville here
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: last year, which was Denver's only home loss last year
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: besides the playoff loss was that one against Jacksonville. So
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: I think that will make them remember that. And it
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 2: was in a bad spot where Denver had to turn
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: around and play on Christmas in four days against Kansas City.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: So it was a big look-ahead spot for Denver back then.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: So I like Denver in this one. They looked too bad.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: in front of a big crowd there, so yeah. The
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: money is indicating on Dallas against Washington, and I do
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: agree with that. Washington just had a tough game, man,
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: where they fell just short of Philadelphia. Turning around and
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: having to play in Dallas is going to be difficult,
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: whereas Dallas, yeah, they played the Sunday night game, but
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 2: it was an ugly performance kind of on national TV,
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: so I think Dallas will turn around and play better here.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: The money is indicating against Seattle, but I kind of
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 2: like Seattle against Arizona. Seattle, they're all the way down
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: to 3.5, 4 here, and the number was going to
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: be 10. So the number has dropped like six points
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: basically just because of the quarterback situation. Darnold is not
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 2: playing in this game. That's why the line is where
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: it is. I think Arizona could be in a letdown
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: spot after that ridiculous double-digit upset of the Chargers. Yes,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: this is a divisional game, so Arizona won't overlook it,
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: with Seattle but if they're gonna ever overlook Seattle it'll
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: be in a game where Drew Locke is playing for
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle you know what I mean uh so Seattle going
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: with their backup QB I talked about it last night
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: but he's definitely capable so I disagree with the market
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: on that one I would I would only lean Seattle
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: in that one um Miami at San Fran the money
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: still agrees with me on that one that is that
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: is one of my plays on Miami unfortunately I don't
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: well I don't know Like I said, wait around to
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: see if you can get 14 on this, and maybe
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: it is still possible. But, yeah, I really like Miami
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: in that spot. I think San Francisco having to readjust
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 2: back to the Pacific Coast time, even though they have
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: extra time to do it, off of that massive win
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: against the Rams where they looked way better than they
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: probably actually are, at least. Miami staying on the Pacific Coast,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 2: by the way. They never went home because they were
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: in Vegas yesterday. where they lost to the Raiders. Miami's
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: just a laughingstock right now, man, so nobody's going to
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: want them. San Francisco's on top of the world right now,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: and San Francisco does have a divisional game next against
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: Arizona as well. So this spot screams Miami to me,
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: and that is one of my plays. Indy in Kansas
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: City is also one of my plays. I am on Indianapolis.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: We're not going to get the seven on this, unfortunately,
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: so I would say just take the six, six and
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: a half with Indianapolis probably. Even though the public is
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: heavily on Kansas City and the money's coming in against them,
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: what this tells me is that the money is so
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: strong on Indianapolis. The money on Indy is so respected
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: that this line has moved towards Indy and counter the
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 2: public activity in what's going to be a really public
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: game late at night, but more of the public will
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: come in late. So I guess if you do want
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: to wait on that, I would still probably wait just
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 2: on the off chance that maybe the public will drive
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: this number back up a little bit. I don't think
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 2: it's going to happen, but I think you'll at least
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 2: be able to get the six, six and a half
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 2: on that by game time. I could be wrong about
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: that though, but I still like Indianapolis plus the points there.
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 2: And then Money is still agreeing with me on my
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: other play too, which is the Rams on Monday night.
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: Laying the seven with the Rams, which is actually an
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 2: anti-public favorite. So that's what I got. Oh, yes. Correct.
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: You were first. Yes. Football. That's it. My plays today.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: We got a bunch of plays. We got to get
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: the Instagram videos out. We got... Let me see here.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: What do we have? We have... In the NFL, we
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 2: got Miami plus 13.5. I don't think we're going to
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: get the 14, but maybe we will. Indianapolis plus 6.5.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: Probably won't get better than that. Rams minus 7, although
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: that's tomorrow, though. So I'll reiterate that tomorrow. We got
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: over 7.5 in Red Sox, Rays in baseball. First five under, 4.5
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 2: in Twins Angels, which I added on the fly. A
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 2: lot of plays today. We got six plays today. Arizona,
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 2: first five. Arizona Diamondbacks in the first five. And Toronto Tempo,
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: is that their name? Plus the 14 to have at WNBA.
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Learn a ton on Twitter.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 2: Learn a ton on Instagram. Let's have a winning day today.
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 2: Yesterday was a slight loss of a ridiculous game where
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: every game pretty much pushed. If you got the right number,
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: and if you didn't, I apologize. You got to get more...
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 2: More books at your disposal, man. That's just what it is,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: but some of those were brutal losses. The UTEP one
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: is going to piss me off for a while, even
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: though it was a push for me. That's still going
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: to piss me off. Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 2: to Tote on Instagram. It was a loss for me
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: in my money pick seven, though, so I'm pissed. And
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: so was UCLA. Learn to Toad on Twitter. Learn to
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: Toad on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Hype
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: it up. Leave comments, all that. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 2: Help me out in that way as well. Covered in
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: Uke is my Uke channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash Learn
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 2: to Toad. You can support me that way. Losercast every
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: Tuesday night and the New York Giants G-Spot podcast. I
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: don't know if we're going to do a live streaming
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: of it tomorrow or not, like a live watch thing.
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 2: Me and Ben, we'll see. Maybe Adam Nutter.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: We'll see. But for now, that's going to do it.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Thanks, everybody. Peace.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: the crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 2: On Stay with me now
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo