Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / WARNING: Wall Street is DUMPING Stocks Fast + Stock Market News 03 April 2024

Transcript

WARNING: Wall Street is DUMPING Stocks Fast + Stock Market News 03 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: And good morning to you, echo.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you on this rather interesting day in the market, yesterday, obviously not looking particularly glorious.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So what's new today?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Well, plenty, plenty of Fed talk, plenty of things happening in the world, from earthquakes to other market chattering moves.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Futures are down once again, but not as dramatically, and I want to walk you through what the big guys are doing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: The big fund managers are doing.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: So you are a better, smarter, informed investor.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Before we get cracking, I've got one thing for you.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I've made the biggest dividend screener we've ever made, literally pretty much every stock.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: There is in the US about 2,500 stocks, and you can download this completely for free.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Felix and a half thousand stocks, and you can download this completely for free.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Pedixfriendsorg slash dividend and it shows you literally every stock there ever was, pretty much and you can filter by things like dividend yield, for example, and you can just say, well, I'd like that to be greater than, say, I don't know, 2% or something.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: And then you'd hit the OK button and then you'd see 1,368 stocks still paying a dividend of 2%.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So obviously we might want to move the number up a little, or not, I don't know.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Make it 5%.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: There's still 661 such companies, so play around on that.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know, make it 5%, there's still 661 such companies, so play around with that, and you can obviously also.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's not obvious at all, but we've also included things like gross profit margin, return on capital employed, so you know whether these are good companies or not.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I'm super happy to answer all your questions on that as well.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: If you want to ask about it, free cash flow how much has the stock actually gone up by in the last five years?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Because often the greatest dividend payers don't necessarily perform that well.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So, felixfriendsorg slash dividend.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I'll pop it on the screen here for you and then we run through a few things, just so you have it.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'll put it in the chat as well.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Right, it's also in the description, but felixfriendsorg slash dividend as well.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Right, it's also in the description, but felixfriendsorg slash dividend, and the point being to make you smarter, better informed.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: There it is, it's completely free, felixfriendsorg slash dividend, so download that and hit me with your questions.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Apple says I thought you hate dividends.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of dividends, to be honest with you.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You can't avoid the bastards, though, and if it's the one thing that incentivizes, encourages you to invest more, then I'm okay with that, because everybody needs something that motivates them, and for you that is dividend income, then cool, that makes you put more money into your portfolio.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I'm very, very happy.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So there it is, alrighty.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look at what is happening right now.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So we've had the Fed come out right Papa Powell speaking again, five more Fed presidents talking today and PIMCO, one of the largest, the largest asset management companies out there.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying we don't think the Fed's going to give us two or three rate cuts.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: We think it's going to be less, and they are already positioning their portfolio that way.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So the big guys are going yeah, we don't really believe the story that we are going to get rate cuts, that we are going to get rate cuts.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: The market pretty much, or the other officials yesterday.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Two others said yesterday they still expect three rate cuts.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Three rate cuts would be good at this point.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I think we take two right now.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We are also getting ADP employment data out today, which is a little bit less manipulated than other pieces of data.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So we look at that and look at that as a preview of what might hit us on Friday, because this Friday is very, very important in terms of the market.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Why are we actually down?
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Why are we suddenly like feeling a little bit antsy?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: It's really all about the manufacturing report that came out and it basically says well, after 16 months of manufacturing recession, it was positive for the first time.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So it's giving us this feeling that the economy might be stronger than people think.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: At least the market seems to believe that.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So Friday will really tell us what kind of landing are we going to get.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Is it the soft landing, the hard landing, or what does it look like?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: What does the bottom of the economic cycle look like?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Talking about bottom of cycles, earthquake hits Taiwan.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: The strongest earthquake in 25 years just hit Taiwan.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Now, somewhat thankfully, the place it hit is one of the less populated parts of Taiwan.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Now, somewhat thankfully, the place it hit is one of the less populated parts of Taiwan.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Most people live in Taipei, taichung and Kaohsiung down here, which is also where that high-speed railway goes up and down.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I used to go up and down there all the freaking time visiting customers all the time on that high-speed rail, which is very nice, but it was still fairly tiring which is very nice, but it was still fairly tiring.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And what happens in Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing, right, nvidia.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Have a look at NVIDIA pre-market here.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Smas hang on NVIDIA, okay, and we're on a week's chart not very useful.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: We're 1% down pre-market and that's basically the market feeling a little bit antsy about this earthquake because it's disrupting manufacturing.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, you need pretty stable stuff to make semiconductors, so that's definitely a story to pay attention to.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Semiconductors.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely a story to pay attention to.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: This is probably the first thing the Fed's ever done that I actually applaud, which is they blocked the climate nonsense rules for Wall Street banks.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: And, of course, that's lobbying from banks, which shows you the power of Wall Street.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: But yeah, europe basically the bureaucrats, the socialists in Europe wanted to include in bank lending requirements how much capital they need somehow climate change, which just to me, makes absolutely no sense.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So the Fed has said no and therefore that's basically the end of it, which is clearly a big win for Wall Street.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So you'd think banks would quite like that.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Today, if you look at the banks, they're looking all right.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan, slightly in the green, slightly smug here this morning, which you would would kind of make sense.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Meta in the green, fat drugs in the green, tesla down another 1.4%, nvidia down a percentage point, but Apple slightly in the green.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: So it's not quite the drama that we were seeing yesterday.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: The 10-year still looks scary, though, and it's really recovering.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: And what does that say?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Well, the 10-year goes up, stocks should go down.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: In theory, they can't really both go up together, and it's basically the market saying we don't believe in interest rate cuts.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So pay attention to this.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: We've also got all the moving averages crossing here, which you might call the golden cross, as in, it looks like it's going to go up some more, which is, of course, not what we want.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: We want bond yields to come down so the stock market can go up.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there we are.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So we are now expecting somewhere between two and three rate cuts for this year, down from six, six no longer, and there are a few miserable people out there who are now thinking there'll be no cuts at all.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'd like to know who they are and have them deported.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the six cuts, I mean, ok, there is just one guy high on something who's optimistic or hasn't read a newspaper since the middle of December, but that's an outlier.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So you've got to watch this data and see, are these bars moving further to the left or are they staying kind of centric around the three cuts?
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Three cuts would be glorious at this point, but it's looking more like two, I think.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: What about Tesla, then?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: This is Goldman Sachs' little note out today.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: They're saying our price target is $190 and we have a positive view of Tesla's long-term growth potential and position in the market, offset by what we believe is a full valuation in weaker and near-term fundamentals.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Downside risks are larger vehicle price reductions than we expect, more competition, delays with production.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Key persons risk, that's Elon and margins.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Operational risks with a high degree of vertical integration because they basically do everything right.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So cautious, but not terrible.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Holy Trinity, you joined me last night.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Alex is not expecting any rate cuts.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Oh, dear Alex, shall we block him now?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: No, I like.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I like disagreement, alex.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I welcome it.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Mike is talking about candlesticks.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Why are they thick and thin?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: What's the link to that handbook?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: We have Code.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, seriously, mike, go here.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: We made a whole 25-page document on this Felixfriendsorg slash code, as in the code to the market.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Download that, my friend, and you will get your questions answered regarding candlesticks and you will be the wisest man regarding candlesticks that's ever walked the earth.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So check that out.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Tesla, of course, has has, has, has, has has just had oh my God the biggest miss ever in terms of delivery numbers compared to market expectations.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Last time we were somewhere similar was 2018, a pretty long time ago.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Global financial crisis and all that kind of thing, and that's a biggie.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: And look at the outperformance over the last three years in the car sector three years in the car sector.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Gm and Toyota Motors have beaten Tesla over the last three years of the stock, which is pretty staggering stuff, isn't it?
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: And it's just proof that when something rallies massively, it's typically followed by a period of underperformance.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Statistically, that is just true.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So to all you Nvidia lot who hope it's going to go to $2,000, it might.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I hope it will for you, but the risk reward has changed right.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: So much of the good stuff's already happened, same thing that happened with Tesla.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Now, what does that mean with Tesla?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I think it makes Tesla more attractive.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I'm liking Teslas at these price levels.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I haven't got a position open, but I might just get into that at some point in the near future.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If you're just tuning in, get your hands on this please.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: If I could spell, it's also down below in the description.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Do you want to know what it is?
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Felixrensselaer slash dividend, the biggest dividend benchmark screener we have ever made.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: It includes how many stocks 3,500 stocks and it doesn't just have the dividend data, which you can filter by the little filter bars here next to each of them.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: You can go in there, file, make a copy.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Now you've got your own and you can mess with it and you can do whatever you like with it put notes and that sort of thing.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: But it also gives you shareholder yield, which I think is super important.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: It gives you margins, so you can tell this is a good business, gives you free cash flow, as in can they afford these dividends?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: And it also tells you what's the stock performance been over the last five years, because sometimes dividend stocks don't really do very well.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Let's give you revenue growth, profit growth.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: For how many months have they increased?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Or for how many periods rather quarters have they increased their dividends?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So say, who's this?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: 29 quarters in a row.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: What about this one here?
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: 53 quarters in a row dividend growth.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Who's that?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Johnson and johnson, okay, interesting.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: So check that out.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Also tells you how much debt.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: They have very high debt levels.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Be very, very, very afraid, so play with it.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: It'll make you a smarter investor, especially if you are into dividends.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I'm entertaining IB.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: That obviously wasn't intentional because I am German and we have no sense of humor.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Tesla at 150 I'll be starting a position, says AG.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I'm of a similar mind with you, honestly, I think at 163, of course, it's better there, and I mean I was at 190.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: But what are the lows we're gunning towards?
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: There's 154.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: That'll be some pretty decent support here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: That 152, actually, if you break through that, yeah, in theory you're heading for like 100 and a bit, but I don't know.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: The Tesla dip buyers are still around, I still think.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: But yeah, right now, look at the trend, look at the trend lines.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Right, we're just going lower and lower and lower.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Can we have some moving averages?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Let's see, if we may.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Why are these colors so miserable?
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: No one can even see that.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: What even is that color?
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Let's pick something a bit more bright and for the 200, we'll go for what shall we go for?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe that?
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that'll be a little bit easier to see.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Right, and look at the moving averages here Now I'm very, very colorful, everything is crossed, everything is going down.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So it's yeah, technically it doesn't look very good, I'm afraid Doesn't look very good.