Latest / Three For The Money / Thanksgiving NFL Gambling Picks, Cowboys Rule, Jets Drool, 9ers Roll
Transcript
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- 0:48MUSIC
- 1:04OK, OK, OK. We're here. We're back.
- 1:07And it's Thanksgiving break weekend, whatever.
- 1:12It's the Thanksgiving football games and we're going to talk about it.
- 1:16Week 11 is done. We're on to Thanksgiving.
- 1:21All right. I think I said like last year was like the halfway point.
- 1:27That's not right. I don't know what to think anymore.
- 1:31This week has been kind of bad, but we're not going to go over that because this is the Thanksgiving episode.
- 1:36That's for the...
- 1:38It's time to give thanks.
- 1:40Yes, it's time to give thanks for football and delicious food.
- 1:43But we'll go over that in the episode later on in the week where we give out the rest of our picks for the rest of the NFL slate.
- 1:54But yeah, I'm thankful for you guys.
- 1:59So sweet.
- 2:02OK.
- 2:04All right, thanks.
- 2:06LAUGHING
- 2:08And the people. I'm just kidding. I'm thankful for you too, Will and Sean.
- 2:13LAUGHING
- 2:16Yeah, sure.
- 2:18Well, I guess I'm thankful for you guys too.
- 2:22You're going to call me out both times.
- 2:26OK, I'm not thankful for you then. Is that what you want me to say?
- 2:29OK, I'm not thankful for you either.
- 2:31Well, that's what it made you sound like you wanted me to say. It's like, why did you call me out?
- 2:34I didn't. I was just saying I was thankful for you.
- 2:37I thought you were doing a bit.
- 2:39I thought the bit was being sincere to my friends. Apparently not.
- 2:45Anyway, let's talk about these games.
- 2:47All right, let's just get into it.
- 2:50It's early in the week. It's Monday.
- 2:52Lines might change. We're recording this during Monday night football, so lines will.
- 2:58It's going to be chaotic.
- 3:00Yeah, lines will probably definitely change.
- 3:02But we are going to get into it the first game on Thursday.
- 3:07I can't remember what time it starts, probably noon or something.
- 3:10Packers at Lions.
- 3:12Lions always play on Thanksgiving.
- 3:14This year it seems that the Lions are somewhat competent to put it lightly.
- 3:21They're actually like a good team.
- 3:23So we will see. We will see.
- 3:26I'm going to throw it to Sean to see what he thinks about this game.
- 3:31Well, I'm glad you threw it to me first because this game had my head in a red soul.
- 3:41This game starts at 1130 AM central time, by the way.
- 3:44All right.
- 3:45So we get 30 extra minutes of football than we would on a normal Sunday, which is great.
- 3:52But the Lions, historically, not good on Thanksgiving.
- 3:59Yes.
- 4:00Since 2006 to present day, they have won four Thanksgiving day games.
- 4:10Four in 17 years.
- 4:15They've been really bad.
- 4:17Yeah, that's what I was about to say.
- 4:20They were pretty good last year.
- 4:22They still lost.
- 4:24They were playing the Bills.
- 4:26I'll give it to them.
- 4:27I'll give it to them.
- 4:28Okay.
- 4:30Oh, yeah.
- 4:31Yeah.
- 4:34So.
- 4:36Lions versus Packers, historical matchup.
- 4:40In their last five games, the Lions are five and no against the spread.
- 4:46When playing at home against the Green Bay Packers.
- 4:50They are also eight and two in their last 10.
- 4:55I'm sorry, I read this wrong.
- 4:59In their last 10 matchups between the Packers, they are eight and two.
- 5:05But they have only been favored once.
- 5:09And it is.
- 5:10It was two and a half.
- 5:13Now, considering earlier this season, when these two teams played, the line was two and a half.
- 5:19And the Packers have yet to have a game where they have been an underdog by more than four points.
- 5:26I think I might lay the Packers here.
- 5:29Just for historical vibes only.
- 5:33This feel this line feels a little bit inflated.
- 5:37Lions barely won against the Bills last year or last week. Excuse me.
- 5:41Bears.
- 5:42Bills. Did I say bears? God damn it.
- 5:44No.
- 5:46I mean, I, I understand what's going on now.
- 5:50Very hot in this room at the moment.
- 5:55But yeah, I think, I think this line is a bit, bit heavy.
- 6:02I think this could be a, it could be tight. It could be a close one.
- 6:06So I think I'm going to lay the Packers plus seven and a half here.
- 6:10Chris.
- 6:12I kind of agree with you. I also didn't know what to do with this game.
- 6:18But then I thought back to last week and I said, the Lions shouldn't be favorite.
- 6:23Like with their defense playing as poorly as they are now, I know they got some guys banged up, but so does everyone at this point.
- 6:31But they, the Bears move the ball with ease on them.
- 6:35And the Bears are terrible.
- 6:38Seven and a half is a lot. Like I know it's Thanksgiving and yes.
- 6:43I don't, I mean, yes, they are historically terrible in Thanksgiving, but they're also just historically terrible as a franchise.
- 6:49Yeah, they're just historically bad.
- 6:52But I think I'm bringing up stats.
- 6:54Yeah, no, no. And they're, they're obviously correct. And I think I'm going to take the Packers plus seven and a half.
- 7:00I hate to do it. I feel like I usually bet on the Lions on Thanksgiving.
- 7:05But I guess I always lose because they always lose too.
- 7:08So let's go Packers plus seven and a half. I don't love it.
- 7:12I don't think I would love any bet in this game if I'm being perfectly honest with you.
- 7:16No, but I think you're right.
- 7:18I mean, the Lions just they're not playing great ball right now.
- 7:22Jared Goff was terrible last week.
- 7:25He was awful.
- 7:27So I'll take seven and a half is a big number. I'll take that.
- 7:31I like it plus seven and a half.
- 7:33What do you got?
- 7:35So I understand where both of you are coming from.
- 7:39And I agree with you half.
- 7:43I'm taking the over. I'm taking over 47.
- 7:46Very uncharacteristic of me. It's quite high.
- 7:49I'm going to be honest.
- 7:51But I mean, that line could definitely change.
- 7:55But as we've seen over the past 11 weeks, the Lions can put up points.
- 8:01And that is why they are favored by this much.
- 8:04But also their defense is terrible.
- 8:07So I will be taking the over.
- 8:09And I mean, last week the Packers were able to put up 23 on a terrible defense.
- 8:16Why can't they do it again?
- 8:1923. That's like almost half of 47.
- 8:24Lions will probably win this game.
- 8:28What's up?
- 8:30It's just you and your math skills again.
- 8:33It's just funny.
- 8:35Yeah, it's probably half.
- 8:38Who's to say, you know, like math is so uncertain.
- 8:46If one thing is constantly changing in this world, it's math.
- 8:50Yeah, without a doubt.
- 8:52So I will be, I will be taking that over.
- 8:56Lions outscore the Packers.
- 8:58But the Packers are going to keep it close, most likely.
- 9:01But I'm just going to take the over.
- 9:03I'm just going to root for points.
- 9:05It's Thanksgiving.
- 9:06I'm going to give thanks for football.
- 9:07Give thanks for points.
- 9:09And yeah, I like it.
- 9:11Yeah, that's the mentality I'm tackling here.
- 9:14All right, next game, the Manders at the Cowboys in Dallas.
- 9:20Dallas is favored by 11.
- 9:23Okay.
- 9:26I'm just going to come out and say it.
- 9:28I'm going to take the Cowboys here.
- 9:30The commanders are absolute ass.
- 9:33I know this is a divisional game.
- 9:35But like the commanders just shit their pants against Tommy DeVito.
- 9:42Like yesterday, because it's Monday.
- 9:47Oh my God.
- 9:49It's just why would why would anyone not take the Cowboys here?
- 9:55It's Lionel will probably inflate.
- 9:57Yeah, at home.
- 9:59They fucking destroy people at home.
- 10:02I'm just going to lay the 11 right here.
- 10:04Chris, what do you think?
- 10:06I completely agree.
- 10:09The commanders have been beaten by the worst team in football,
- 10:13being the New York Giants.
- 10:15Twice now this season.
- 10:19How can you put money on this team at all?
- 10:22You can't.
- 10:23It's Cowboys minus 11 all day.
- 10:26Little, little stat for you guys.
- 10:29Little Thanksgiving.
- 10:31Well, it's not Thanksgiving.
- 10:32It doesn't pertain to Thanksgiving.
- 10:34But Daxie Daxie in his career against division opponent is 26,
- 10:4010 and one against the spread seven and three in the last 10.
- 10:45So, and just their shit pumping all these terrible teams right now.
- 10:51Yeah, they'll do it again.
- 10:53Honestly, like though probably when the skim by 30 again.
- 10:57So yeah, Cowboys minus 11.
- 10:59Sean, do you agree?
- 11:01I do.
- 11:03I do agree.
- 11:05Cowboys minus 11 all damn day.
- 11:08Cowboys are looking to continue their home record of whoop.
- 11:12And ass by at least 20 points.
- 11:16They are undefeated at home by 20 points or more.
- 11:20And they're still in the middle of the game.
- 11:23The Mander's just lost to a quarterback who still lives with
- 11:27his parents who cook and clean for him.
- 11:30That's embarrassing.
- 11:32I don't know.
- 11:34It is embarrassing.
- 11:37Like what five minutes away from the facility.
- 11:40Sure. He's also still, he's just graduated college.
- 11:44I mean, I understand.
- 11:46I understand.
- 11:48But it is a little embarrassing.
- 11:51It is. If you're a Mander's fan, you are a little embarrassed by that.
- 11:56Oh, I, yeah.
- 11:58Yeah.
- 11:59I don't know if that's the reason I would be embarrassed, but I would be embarrassed.
- 12:02Got beat by a third straight quarterback.
- 12:05That would be like the sixth reason I'd be embarrassed.
- 12:10Yeah.
- 12:11Well, the Cowboys last two games have also been double digit spreads.
- 12:17They're two and O against the spreads in these situations.
- 12:21These teams suck.
- 12:24Cowboys love to just.
- 12:27I'm going to do a little Thanksgiving pun here. They love to eat.
- 12:31They love to eat against bad teams.
- 12:34And that's exactly what you, what they're going to do.
- 12:37Lay the points here. Cowboys minus 11. It's a big number.
- 12:41Don't be scared of it. Take it.
- 12:43Before it goes up. Take it.
- 12:46Yeah, I probably do that before these lines change.
- 12:51Well, the next game is the 49ers at the Seahawks in Seattle.
- 12:58Seattle are home dogs by six and a half as of recording.
- 13:06Chris, you go first this time.
- 13:10I would love to. I'm going to take a page out of your playbook. Well,
- 13:17prime time under under 44.
- 13:19At least that's what it was when I was doing research today. I don't know if it's changed yet.
- 13:22Gino might not play.
- 13:25Even if he does, I have no confidence in the Seahawks being able to move the ball
- 13:30against, against San Francisco.
- 13:33I think San Francisco.
- 13:35They've been put, they've been running up the score a lot. They're on short rest.
- 13:39They're just getting in. Let's get the dub. Let's get out.
- 13:42I think that's going to be their philosophy. They're not going to try to do anything too fancy.
- 13:45So under 44, especially, especially if Gino doesn't play, which it's kind of looking like he won't give in what's three days, four days rest.
- 13:56So I like, I think the Niners want them personally, but I'm saying away from the spread.
- 14:02So I'm going to take under 44.
- 14:05Sean, what do you have?
- 14:08I'm going to actually double dip in this game.
- 14:12Yep.
- 14:14Chris, I love that under pick.
- 14:17Let me give you another little, little tidbit about this under, besides it being a prime time under under with a home underdog.
- 14:29They hit 62% of the time over the past two seasons.
- 14:34Really?
- 14:36Yes.
- 14:38That's a juicy little nugget.
- 14:40I know. I'm glad I found that today, which is a game changer, honestly.
- 14:45It is.
- 14:46So yes, I'm going to rock under 43 and a half. This is another one when I would grab it as soon as you see this.
- 14:54I think this line will definitely move down.
- 14:58It's going to keep going down.
- 15:00I think Gino Smith is expected to play, but I'm not sure if he's like,
- 15:07He won't be 100%
- 15:09No, he's, he won't be 100%. He is expected to play her.
- 15:15My, my fantasy on Yahoo. That's what they say.
- 15:20Because I have Gino Smith as a backup quarterback.
- 15:24But onto my next pick, I'm going to, I'm going to lay the points at 40 49ers minus six and a half.
- 15:3249ers have the best team in football.
- 15:36When they are healthy, when they are healthy.
- 15:40And no one has even come close to beating the Niners when they have their offense at 100%.
- 15:49And I really, I don't think this banged up Seahawks team is going to be the first to do it.
- 15:55They're not, they're not going to be the first to do it.
- 15:57I'm going to lay the points here.
- 15:59I am a little weary about it.
- 16:02But I'm going to do it. It's Thanksgiving night. I'm going to be so full that I'm just going to want to relax, just watch football and, you know, win money.
- 16:14Basically.
- 16:16Will, what do you got?
- 16:18I'm a Niners Niners minus six and a half. It's just, this is just a textbook. Don't overthink it.
- 16:24Niners are going to steamroll Gino Smith.
- 16:28You know, he's probably not going to be 100%.
- 16:31And you know, if drew lot comes in, it's, it's like 10 times the lock. No pun intended.
- 16:40But yeah, Niners minus six and a half. Keep it simple.
- 16:45That's, that's really all I got to say. I feel like we said everything about this game, but
- 16:49Well, real quick, another reason I probably love this action. Another reason I love this under.
- 16:55I'm probably asleep.
- 16:58Yeah, this is prime after late afternoon nap.
- 17:03Yeah, if I, so if I'm not going to be watching it, might as well bet the under.
- 17:09Accurate.
- 17:11100%.
- 17:13Yeah.
- 17:15Who was it?
- 17:19Fuck.
- 17:20All right. How about you explain to the people what's happening right now?
- 17:25Okay, go ahead.
- 17:27No, it.
- 17:29Chris, I instigated it.
- 17:32I told Chris delay where she rice first touchdown score.
- 17:37And it didn't happen.
- 17:40So it's all right.
- 17:42It's okay. It's just, it's just adding to. Okay, we still got that. We still got the chiefs though tonight.
- 17:48Yep.
- 17:49So it's okay.
- 17:53Who scored the backup tie in whatever his name is.
- 17:58Justin Watson Watson.
- 18:00Okay.
- 18:03All right.
- 18:05Cool. Okay.
- 18:07Those are all.
- 18:09Those are all of the Thanksgiving games, but we are going to talk about the black Friday game.
- 18:17The dolphins at the jets, divisional matchup jets are home dogs by 10.
- 18:24The jet stink.
- 18:26It seems like they've all given up.
- 18:28Is this a trap?
- 18:30I don't know.
- 18:32I don't really, I really don't have anything circled here. I was hoping maybe either you two could swing me.
- 18:38I feel like if I take the dolphins here, that's a lot of chalk.
- 18:41But do any of you guys have a have a play you are confident in this game that can swing me one way?
- 18:50Yeah.
- 18:51Okay.
- 18:52Are we joking?
- 18:54I'm scared.
- 18:55Are you doing a bit?
- 18:56No, the dolphins are going to win the skin by 100 points.
- 19:00Yeah.
- 19:02100%.
- 19:03The jets can't move the football.
- 19:07Yeah.
- 19:08They're starting Tim Boyle.
- 19:09Tim Boyle who like, I don't even know who that guy is, but that's not a winning quarterback name.
- 19:15That's the guy from the fairly odd parents that had the big boil on his face.
- 19:21Exactly.
- 19:22That would like speak evil thoughts into his brain.
- 19:25Oh my God.
- 19:26I was wondering what happened to that guy.
- 19:28I don't want a key memory in my.
- 19:31He is now a starting NFL quarterback.
- 19:36Yeah.
- 19:38Yeah.
- 19:40Need I say more?
- 19:44No, you shouldn't.
- 19:46The dolphins are going to win this game by as many points as they want.
- 19:51Like, and actually their defense actually looks pretty good now, especially the jail and ran to come back.
- 19:57This is easy.
- 19:58I'm surprised this isn't like 13 and a half.
- 20:01Like, I know the dolphins don't look great against the Raiders.
- 20:05Playing with their hair on fire right now.
- 20:07The jets have given up.
- 20:09They don't care.
- 20:10Nobody on that team cares.
- 20:12It's dolphins minus nine and a half all day.
- 20:15And I'm not even really worried whatsoever.
- 20:19Sean, do you agree?
- 20:22I want 100% no 115% agree.
- 20:29Here's, I think I can, I think I can sway you to this line will.
- 20:34But the dolphins average a league high of 30 and a half points per game.
- 20:43Do you know what the jets points per game is?
- 20:51It'd be more than 10.
- 20:55It's actually 15.
- 20:58But the dolphins have doubled.
- 21:03Average points per game.
- 21:05Right.
- 21:06Before, before Zach Wilson through that touchdown last week, the jets have not scored an offensive touchdown in 15 quarters of football.
- 21:16In the NFL.
- 21:18Yes.
- 21:19How are they averaging 15 points if they haven't scored a touchdown in weeks?
- 21:27I don't know.
- 21:29It has to be their defense, something with their defense.
- 21:34It's something with that, that chargers game, because they had to pick six right in that game.
- 21:40The chargers game.
- 21:41I think so.
- 21:44Well, they lost 27 to six.
- 21:46So I don't know.
- 21:50Well, I was looking at their scores and they had like a three week stretch where they scored 20, 31 and 20.
- 21:58Other than that, they have not broke 15.
- 22:02Except for weak point against the bills.
- 22:06Well, where they had, where they had a punt return for a touchdown.
- 22:10Right.
- 22:11Okay.
- 22:12Well, I saw it on the internet. So it must be true.
- 22:15Of course.
- 22:16But regardless, regardless, I don't want to place any of my hard earned money on a jet's quarterback.
- 22:25That's true.
- 22:26No, no, I don't.
- 22:29I would rather spend my money on to a tongue of I loa with his new cornrows.
- 22:36Those weren't cheap.
- 22:38Those weren't cheap to get.
- 22:39Probably not.
- 22:40I don't know.
- 22:41I don't know the hair.
- 22:42I don't know the price of that hairstyle.
- 22:45I've never had cornrows.
- 22:47I've never had cornrows.
- 22:48I may shock some people, but I've never had cornrows.
- 22:53I've never had cornrows.
- 22:56I've never had cornrows.
- 22:58But this line actually opened up at six and a half.
- 23:02I think you'd be lucky to get it at nine and a half.
- 23:04So this is another one.
- 23:06That we're going to warn you now take it while you can.
- 23:09At nine and a half.
- 23:10I'd play this. I'd play this up to 10.
- 23:12But I'll play. I mean.
- 23:14I would, I would personally, but.
- 23:17Again, nine and a half is a great number. Get it while you can.
- 23:21I'm not going to bet on the jets. I'm betting on the dolphins.
- 23:24But the fact that this opened at six and a half.
- 23:27Like.
- 23:28Is Tyreek Hill.
- 23:29Dead.
- 23:30What, what.
- 23:31This was this.
- 23:32Why was that surprisingly.
- 23:34Well, surprisingly, this was before.
- 23:37They played.
- 23:39On the look ahead. The look. Okay. Yeah.
- 23:42The look ahead.
- 23:43Okay.
- 23:44Because these games start.
- 23:46Yeah.
- 23:47This week.
- 23:48So yeah, I was.
- 23:50I was like, I was like, I'm not going to,
- 23:52but that almost makes me want to take the jets. But like, I mean,
- 23:55there's a.
- 23:56I'm not placing harder money on a man.
- 23:59Yeah.
- 24:00Yeah.
- 24:01There's.
- 24:02There's a number of reasons why this, this went up.
- 24:05You know, they thought Zach Wilson was going to start and they got
- 24:09this.
- 24:10Fucking rookie.
- 24:11Out here now.
- 24:12So.
- 24:13I mean, there's a number of reasons why this went up, but.
- 24:16I'm not going to.
- 24:17I'm not surprised in the slightest, if I'm being honest.
- 24:20I was thinking about the, the kid from fairly odd parents with the
- 24:24boil.
- 24:25That's all I'm thinking about right now.
- 24:27It has evil thoughts.
- 24:28In the reception.
- 24:30They're at to jail and Ramsey one on one.
- 24:33Do it.
- 24:35God.
- 24:37Okay.
- 24:38Okay.
- 24:39I'm going to go with the.
- 24:40I'm going to go with the.
- 24:41I'm going to go with the.
- 24:42I'm going to go with the.
- 24:43I'm going to go with the.
- 24:44I'm going to go with the.
- 24:47Okay.
- 24:48Well, that's the Thanksgiving show.
- 24:52Yes, Chris.
- 24:53Just one more little bonus bet.
- 24:56Thanksgiving.
- 24:57Mississippi state plus 11 and a half against Ole Miss.
- 25:00At home.
- 25:01They got a new coach.
- 25:03They got interim coach.
- 25:04He wrote a four wheeler.
- 25:06Into the locker room.
- 25:08That was awesome.
- 25:09For that reason and that reason alone.
- 25:11I'm going to go with the.
- 25:14Mississippi state plus 11 and a half.
- 25:17Okay.
- 25:18Love a good vibes play.
- 25:19Love a good vibes play.
- 25:21Okay.
- 25:22Cool.
- 25:23Yeah.
- 25:24Thank you so much for listening and watching.
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- 25:35Great.
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- 25:38Yeah.
- 25:41That's it.
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