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The ONLY Property Strategy That Survives Budget 2026 | Australian Property Experts · The Follio Property Podcast

• 0:00
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• 0:31
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• 0:56
  Fifth economic shock in less than 20 years. House prices have decoupled from incomes. Over 400% will limit negative gearing for residential property to new builds from July next year. Replacing the 50% capital gains tax discount with inflation-adjusted indexation.
• 1:13
  Those that were just buying and holding and set and forget, it's game over. So it is the death of your lazy investor, your mum and dad investor that just buy, hold and hope. Lock-On's been a big week in our world and Australia in general pays budget. This has been the most significant shift to our landscape. And if you're not pivoting, then you are going to get left behind.
• 1:31
  Is it the death of the mum and dad investor who was hidden and hoping? Without a doubt, things just got a whole lot more complicated and the gap between the rich and the poor just got greater. Two major changes that the government proposed last week was negative gearing and CGT. Most significant political change in the property market since 1985. They do want to understand the data and that's our job. Do you think history is going to repeat itself here in Australia? Rents will rise 20, 30% in the next two years. My prediction, we're going to see...
• 2:01
  You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast. I'm Rhys Beddell. I'm here each week with my co-host Lachlan De La Hunty. Okay, Lachlan, big episode today off the back of the budget week last week. We were addressing a lot from, I guess, the government and the policy perspective and where we see that going in Australia in 2026. We've also touched on some live examples from a CGT perspective as well that you've recently seen with your clients.
• 2:25
  Yeah, I'm going to go through exactly what this means with the Australian property market and where I see the opportunity raised, and I think that's really important. So much noise. I don't think I've seen the property segment as a whole get so much attention than it has in the last week off the back of the budget.
• 2:40
  Hey guys, quick thing to share. If you're serious about investing in Australian property right now, you need to see what we put together. It's called the National Investment Report and it's our brand new monthly deep dive into exactly where the market is moving, what the data is saying and what the smart investors are looking at right now. You can get the first access completely free. Just scan the QR code on the screen right now or click in the link below to fill out the form.
• 3:04
  I think we've addressed the budget over the last couple of weeks, and I think today's now, okay, let's talk about what we think is going to happen to the property market off the back of the budget. We've been getting some feedback on some recent episodes where people want to stick to the strategies, they don't like the political take. I mean, the big thing is, it's been a big change in the industry. It's been the biggest change in our industry.
• 3:25
  at least in the last decade, if not much longer than that. So I understand people are like, we're not a political podcast and we will not ever try to be one. But you've got to understand, this has been the most significant shift to our landscape. And if you want strategies, advice, and you want strategy podcast, I can't give you a strategy unless I understand the landscape that we're playing in. Because the strategy now, Rhys, is extremely different to what the strategy was two weeks ago. And that's just, and if you're not pivoting,
• 3:54
  then you are gonna get left behind, and left behind by the pack of what will now need to be sophisticated investors. Those that were just buying and holding and set and forget, it's game over. Is it the death of the mum and dad investor who was hitting and hoping? Without a doubt. This will be the hardest period moving forward to A, understand the market, but B, get ahead in real estate in Australia. Do not underestimate how significant this is, and I'm not talking
• 4:23
  what it means for the markets. We're going to cover that today, right? Today we're covering what does this mean for Australian markets? What will happen? And I'm going to talk through that. But you as an individual investor, things just got a whole lot more complicated and the gap between the rich and the poor just got greater. So it is, yeah.
• 4:39
  The death of your lazy investor, your mum and dad investor that just buy, hold and hope. It's game over. There's plenty of opportunities out there and we'll be getting back to our roots in the next couple of episodes with some strategies. But as we said today, let's see what has happened previously when we've had changes like this in Australia or New Zealand as a case study. And let's go through where you predict sort of what's going to happen to the property market moving forward in 2026.
• 5:05
  It is, and people want answers, and I know it's, you know, when we went live with this episode Tuesday when it was launched, I was on the fence whether we should do that episode because I said to you, Rhys, I need to understand this, and I need typically days, if not months, if not at least weeks, to digest the information, to research and understand what it fully means before I give advice. And the same, you know, history repeats itself. The same thing happened when COVID hit, although a different example, it's...
• 5:34
  a significant change to our industry. So you need to understand it, and then we need time to research it, digest it, to then be able to provide informed advice based on data. That's all it is. No one wants to hear my opinion. I don't think anyone cares about it.
• 5:48
  your or my opinion about things, Rhys, political, analytical, but they do want to understand the data. And that's our job, I believe, as a property podcast, is not talk through my biases, it's talk through data. And that's what we've done. We're going back in history, we've gone back to periods in time to look at what actually happens when significant political change takes place in the Australian market.
• 6:09
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• 6:38
  Let's talk through negative gearing as this was, you know, the two major changes that the government proposed last week was negative gearing and CGT. I thought we'd touch on negative gearing where we can look at an example from New Zealand, what happened to the market there and the feedback, I guess.