Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold’s First Monthly $2000+ Close -- John Rubino #5959

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Gold’s First Monthly $2000+ Close -- John Rubino #5959 · Financial Survival Network

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Okay, the FED is going to have to use pretty soon, which normally
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would be good for bitcoin. And we've got the you know that's going to
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cause inflation, which also would be good for bitcoins. Yeah, we've got
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the ztfs coming online. And you know, we have to remember cryptos,
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Bitcoin and the theireum at least together or not that big of a market.
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If you take the whole crypto of universe, it's pretty good size, but
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for the two main coins, it's not that big. So if a lot
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of generalists money flows into these ETFs and they have to buy, I don't
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want to say physical Bitcoin and physical ethereum, because that's not how that works.
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and welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network on your
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earths. Carrie Lutz, Well John Rabino's with us. John, We've had
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conversations about gold and silver. You know, it's almost thirteen years now,
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if you could believe it, and it's always been kind of the same conversation,
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except today, right, hey, Jerry. Yeah, Well, there's
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been some thrills and chills in the precious metals market. In the last week,
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gold finished an all time monthly high, and overnight just last night it
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broke through twenty one hundred before getting smacked back down. So basically now it's
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a question of support and resistance because traders humans like big round numbers, so
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we tend to cluster for our buying and selling at the big round numbers.
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And so for over the past three or so years, gold has gotten up
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to two thousand, which is the biggest of big round numbers in gold's history,
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and each time it's gotten smacked back down because so many sales came in.
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And I posted a thing on substack a while ago about the gold resistance
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is finite, and the you know, the idea is that eventually, if
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you keep trying the big round number where there's resistance, eventually you soak up
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all the selling and then you could break through and then the old resistance becomes
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support. So that's what we got to see next with gold was you know,
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well, whether it drops back down to two thousand and then bounces off
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of that on its way up to twenty one or twenty two hundred, and
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if that's true that happens, then we're in a boole market because what used
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to be resistance is support, and there's no real resistance before twenty five hundred
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in terms of psychologically important big round numbers. So it'll be a hell of
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a ride if that happens, and we could find out this week, you
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know at least, or actually we could find out today gold was getting whack
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today. And if it drops the two thousand, bounces off, then my
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thesis is supported and we should expect a nice long run from there. Well,
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I'm going to go out, I'm going to go out on the line
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and say, this is two thousand and eleven on steroids. Remember twenty eleven,
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twenty eleven in the years that followed were life changing experiences for me.
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So yeah, I remember twenty eleven definitely. Everything that happened then is Look,
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I knew when the crash hit, and it really hit and gold went
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down under one thousand, that's when I was buying and I was buying silver
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six to eight dollars an ounce, and I never bought any more after that.
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A couple of little bits here and there. I bought some war nickels,
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just to prove that you could buy silver for less than its melt value,
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because the war nickels at the time, those were nickels produced during World
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War II two. They didn't have any copper nickel, and then they just
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had silver and they're thirty five percent silver, and they were selling below their
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mouth value. And I just did that to prove that it could be done.
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Two hundred bucks worth on eBay. But this seems to me. Now
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I could be wrong, but I think this is we're getting to the backup
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the truck moment. I think we will have a pullback here and they'll drive
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it below two thousand, so everybody will say a goal, that faked us
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out again, another head fake, and that's when it goes. And maybe
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eighteen hundred is that bottom. I don't know. Well, yeah, there
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are macro reasons why that's very reasonable, and that is because we're heading into
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a recession right now. You know, people were a little bit the third
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quarter GDP ratings were really strong. They were like five percent annualized growth,
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and then after that every macro indicator that you can think, and a bunch
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that you probably have never heard of before all turn negative. And so so
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now we're probably into recession. And the way that works with the equities markets
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is they tend to have a relief rally when the FED stops tightening. But
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then we see why the Fed stop tightening, Corporate profits plunged, stocks plunge,
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and then the FED starts easing and stocks really drop during the first the
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time of the first couple of easons. So you know, if that's the
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first half of the next year that we're looking at, then that's probably bad
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for precious metals. They don't get sucked down with everything else. So we
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could indeed see eighteen hundred dollars again, but that would be a prelude to
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the FED having to panic cut and the like you said, it's twenty eleven
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on steroids, because same basic macro set up, but the numbers are all
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exponentially worse. So everything that hit in two thousand and eight, two thousand
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and nine ten to panic the FED into using will be much much worse this
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time around. The banks will get hit harder, real estate will will just
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collapse, and that's what looks like is happening now. Junk bonds forget it,
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you know, anything else you could think of will be heading south in
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a hurry. So that's that's very possible. And if it happens, you
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want to be short the stock market, and then you want to be buying
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precious metals when it gets down into like you said, eighteen or change something
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like that. And so one theory, and I don't remember if you and
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I explored it or not, is that gold. Actually the price goes up
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when interest rates go up interestingly enough, because banks make loans generally when they
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get more money, and when the interest rates were low and they got there
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guaranteed one percent from the Fed parking their excess reserves, there no incentive to
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make loans, no growth of the monetary supply. Now, on the other
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hand, we know that the velocity of money has been in the pits,
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but the base m zero skyrocketed from the pandemic, and the banks are like,
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you know, besides the banks that are going out of business, the
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other banks, the majors are sitting on tons and tons of cash and they're
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still I don't know about you, I'm still getting credit card offers and they're
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still making car loans less mortgage is evidently, but that's a function of demand,
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not a function of supply. So will higher rates lead to higher gold
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prices? So far the answer is yes. Well, the relationship between goal
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and the interest rates depends on why interest rates are moving. It can work
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either way. Actually, because in nineteen seventies interest rates went up and gold
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went up, but interst rates were going up. They were actually both going
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up because inflation was running out of control, and so that was gold moving
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in response to inflation, not interest rates. And then post Great Recession,
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interest rates went down and continued to go down for a really long time,
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but gold went up for a while, went up into you know, it
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peaked and I think twenty eleven, and it could be twenty twelve, right,
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it was nineteen hundred and change right around there, but interest rates had
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been falling for quite a while. Oh, June of twenty eleven, I
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think, yeah, Okay, in September as I literally started doing this full
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time, expecting gold to take off to the moon, and three months later
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it had peaked. So I remember that those lessons only too well. So
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yeah, and then so after twenty eleven, interest rates can continued to fall,
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but gold fell too because everybody perceived that we might be in a depression,
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and you know, the FED was going to have no choice but to
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ease like crazy, and so falling interest rates were good for gold in that
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case. So I don't think it's a hard and fast rule, but I
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think that in the coming few years, the FED might have to ease really
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aggressively and they might have to go back to chewe want steroids and push interest
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rates down because the economy is imploding, and that would probably be really good
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for gold and silver. So they would benefit from falling interest rates and from
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the perception that eventually that's going to cause inflation, and from the perception that
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were bankrupt financially and there's no choice but to devalue the dollar on a massive
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scale. You know, it could be a perfect storm for gold at some
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point in the not too distant future. And that's that's what we want to
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be in this market for you know this, Oh it's going to go to
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twenty five hundred dollars an ounce, that's fine, that's okay, But it's
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the the discontinuity with gold and silver and the dollar that I think is going
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to be really interesting when when you know we have the monetary reset and all
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of a sudden, goald is ten thousand dollars an ounce. That's that's what
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we're holding on for, and I think we're closer to that than we've ever
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been reached. More agreed, agreed, definitely, Hey not to mention Bitcoin's
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back over forty thousand, that's a surprise to me. But is it purely
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a result of the ETFs or is this flight to perceived safety? Is bitcoin
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really a safe even asset now? Well, we might already be having the
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perfect store for bitcoin because we've got the okay, the FED is going to
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have to use pretty soon, which normally would be good for bitcoin, and
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we've got the you know that's going to cause inflation, which also would be
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good for bitcoins. And we've got the ETFs coming online. And you know,
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we have to remember cryptos, Bitcoin and the Faerium, at least together,
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are not that big of a market. If you take the whole crypto
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universe, it's pretty good size, but for the two main coins, it's
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not that big. So if a lot of generalist money flows into these ETFs,
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and they have to buy I don't want to say physical bitcoin and physical
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ethereum because that's not how that works, but they have to load up on
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bitcoin and ethereum. It could be that that is a significant new source of
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the demand that sends these guys up dramatically, and maybe they're anticipating that this
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might be the crypto market program humming the generalist cash that comes in, so,
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you know, so we don't know where it tops out, but right
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now it looks very positive for cryptos because of these because you know the immediacy
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of these of the ETFs that are coming along. Yeah, it could make
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all the difference and probably makes it very easy to manipulate because there has to
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be a lag time before tw between when you buy the crypto and when the
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trade actually goes through with a crypto, your dollars get converted to crypto right
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in the ETF. I don't know how that's going to play out. They're
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sort of an end so theoretically they keep buying more and more crypto as more
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funds flow into the fund. Right, how some atfs work is that they
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have a net asset value and when demand goes up and that pushes the price
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of the ETF's stock up above the net asset value. They sell more shares
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and then go out and buy at basically net asset value, and that increases,
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you know, marginally persistent net asset value. So when when the underlying
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asset is very popular, that's when these ETFs grow, and that's when they
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take more of the underlying asset off the market. So what there's a good
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chance of happening is that people will buy these ETFs without looking at the net
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asset value. They'll be like, okay, here's an ETF where I can
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buy cryptos with a mouse click. Let me buy some. Yeah, And
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then the ETF goes to a twenty percent premium over net asset value, and
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then they issue a bunch of new shares, use the proceeds to buy a
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bunch more ethereum and bitcoin, and that pushes the price up even further.
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So you get kind of a pertetual motion machine until people figure out that hey,
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this thing is thirty percent over net acid value. That's not a good
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deal, you know, and they's out about it. Yeah, it's it's
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going to be interesting to see how these things function and what effect they have
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and you know, there's just so many other things going on that affect crypto
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and perceptions larger markets for it. So we're going to have to see,
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what about what's going on in the Middle East. They're like shooting missiles that
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are ships, not hitting them, but they're hitting commercial ships. Yeah,
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now we have to see just how evil the people running the US are.
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And you know, we know they're they're somewhere on the evil scale, but
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if they are way out there on the blood thirsty psychopath side, then basically
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they're going to stage a false flag attack like I did for Korea and like
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it is for Vietnam. Well, they blow up one of their ships and
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say, oh my god, Iran just new jar ship, you know,
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something like that, and they're going to use that. Yes, they're going
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to use that to get into this war that they really want, because I
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think there are you know, more than a few people in the US government
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who would love a US, a US Israeli alliance that goes out there and
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destroys all our perceived enemies in the Middle East, just you know, one
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one big year of knockdown, drag out technological warfare, and we are in
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Tehran, you know, we take it over. Iran got all their oil,
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and we've wiped out everybody else who looks like they're in our way Exteria,
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And you know, wouldn't be a surprised if that's something that they're planning.
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So ray that there's somebody who's saying in the room with these guys and
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says, no, you can't do that. There's no sane people left in
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DC. They've all been deported in other parts. Yeah, but but anyhow
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so so we you know, we don't know at this point. When the
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government says our ships are being fired on, we honestly don't know what's happening
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because it might be real, or it might be made up, or it
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might be you know, they shot one little homemade missile and we're going to
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blow up a battleship of ours to attend there was a major league Iran and
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high tech missile STYMP. We'll see, you know. We we can't trust
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the people in charge, so we should not. So really what they say,
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So whatever happens out there, verify, find out if there's anybody out
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there who's a whistleblower who's willing to come forward and talk about this. Yeah,
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well, I guess we're going to find out to fairly soon what the
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deal is here, because it looks like it's heating up for sure, and
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that combined with next year being a recession year, they need to do something.
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Huh, Well, it's not just a recession year, it's an election
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year. Yeah, So if you can't run on the economy, you start
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a war and or or have some other kind of big scandal. You know,
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it could be that they like the old saying goes I think it was
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Hughey Huey Long in Louisiana. He used to say, yeah, you know,
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if you want to get me, you have to catch me with a
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dead girl or a live boy or something like that. So maybe a scandal
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at that level that they use against the Republican nominee a week before the election,
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and that that satisfies them. They don't feel like they need a war
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after all. So we'll see. But you know, you combine a big
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recession with a presidential election with a bunch of psychos run away show, and
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basically anything could happen. So oh my god, Okay, so what about
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this election we got. You think RFK is going to be in it to
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the end. You know what RFK is has made it a three million raise,
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and which adds a really interesting flavor to this because this is you know,
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RFK is in the high teens, low twenties right now in polling,
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and this is before debates. But if you know, you've heard RFK speak,
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right, So what happens when he's standing next to Biden on a stage
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and they're discussing world affairs and public policy? I mean, you know he
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might you never know which debates how they're going to go, but it's completely
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possible that RFK holds his own with Trump because they were talking about different things
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and obliterates Biden. So they come out of it, you know, with
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a two man race, let's say. And at that at that point,
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Biden has to quote unquote have a health emergency and then then then Gavin Newsom
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has to step up. And you know, if that happens with a couple
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of months before the election, and boy, that's going to be a unique
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thing. We've never had that happen before. That's like what happened in New
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Jersey. I remember what was his name. They began with a t an
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Italian guy, the senator. He got indicted and then Frank Lautenberg just jumped
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into his position and won, So there's precedent for it, but not at
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a national level. But hey, what about peer? Let me interrupt,
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because the one more thing about this election thing is, you know, it's
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possible that Trump gets convicted of something while all of this is going on.
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So you got a convicted felon somebody who is, you know, one one
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exciting moment away from a stroke, and RFK, who doesn't need an have
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Secret Service protection, very candidated it to attempts. I mean, they won't
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do it. Yeah, So this this could be, you know, an
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absolutely unique election with stuff going on that has never happened before and hopefully it
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will never happen again. Okay, so what about the debate with Gavin Newsom
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and DeSantis. It looked like I didn't watch the debate. I don't watch
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them because but this one actually looked like a real debate, didn't it.
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Well, I mean, this has two sitting governors of major states are arguing
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about stuff, which I think is just inherently interesting because they have two different
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philosophies of governance, two sets of policies and everything. So I didn't watch
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the debate either, but I think because of the nature of the policies that
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are being debated that could possibly have been interesting. I don't know, you
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know, they didn't get very good reviews, and there was you know,
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there was sort of consensus on the news sites that I was looking at,
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in other words, the legit news sites, not the cable news guys that
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neither either governor won. You know, they both scored some points, neither
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one of them. It looked exactly presidential, but it would. You know,
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it was a non event from a presidential campaign standpoint, but it was
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probably better than the Republican debates that they've had so far. Yeah, definitely.
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You know, still my favorite guy is still the Baker Ramaswami as far
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as political mediator goes. He's like the most fun guy to watch. And
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who knows, he's so young now that he could easily be like chief of
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staff or a president or something like that and then come back and run with
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a little bit of government experience. And actually he might he might actually be
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a president at some point, which at this point I think would be cool.
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You know, it won't happen this time around, but sometime while you
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and I are still doing interviews, carry. I think it's complete possible that
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we have a president around the slummage. Yeah, well, they're all actors,
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you know. So Trump was the only real candidate because there was no
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grooming, There was no you know, positioning, marketing. Like remember that
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movie The Selling of the President I think it was. It was a book
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about forty fifty years ago, and basically they sell the president like they sell
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dog food, you know, only absolutely the dog food is probably more beneficial.
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Well, you know, you could make the case that Trump is just
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a higher level marketer so that it doesn't look like there's marketing going on.
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You know, he's he's the guy with no filder who says what he thinks
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he's gonna you know, he makes all these really grandiose promises. That could
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be a brand, you know, it could be a bought out brand,
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although I actually don't think so. I think Trump literally doesn't have a filter,
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yeah, and actually is saying what he thinks and in any given moment,
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you know. So, but yeah, you know, it could be
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that he's a convicted fellon who gets elected presidently, which that alone, you
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know, leave all the other stuff aside. That right there is pretty unique.
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Can you know, so twenty twenty four shaping up as a existentially threatening
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year that if it doesn't involve the nuclear war, might be just hilarious.
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You know, these just might be a lot of fun to watch. So
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we'll say, oh, remember Doctor strange Love was funny too, you know.
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Well, hen Henry just injuryus died. So that's that's another eerie kind
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of coincidence there, that the guy who Doctor Strangelove was a mobled after just
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just kicked. Yeah, that's right. I forgot how he would say after
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that. So hey, yeah, well we won't have any more entertaining movies
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like that again. We just can't laugh about the bomb anymore. It's just
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not funny anymore now that so many countries have it. Well, I think
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we'll leave it at that. Make sure you go over to John's work at
23:11
Robino dot substack dot com link in the show notes below and the sign up
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for every newsletter Financial Survival Network dot com. I'm sure we'll have lots more
23:22
to talk about in two weeks. John, you be well and we will
23:26
talk soon. Thanks carriy see yah, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
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Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times For the latest, go to
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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever