Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 390 - 11/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 390 - 11/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  543. 2. One all systems go with Josh
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  Applebaum starts now. Hello, and welcome to episode
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  390 of the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by
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  Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on? Everyone happy Thirsty Thursday.
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  The long wait is over. Wasn't much of A long wait, but
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  we got the NFL back tonight, big Thursday Night Football
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  showdown, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Denver Broncos.
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  I do have two plays on tonight's game.
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  I got to play on the total. I have an opinion on the side
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  and definitely the side is something we got to talk about
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  here. But I got to play on the total
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  with a great rhythm edge. And then also I got a player
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  prop for you. I'm looking at one of the two
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  quarterbacks to go over or under his passing yardage.
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  And I'm also gonna introduce you to a new piece of analytics that
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  we might be able to use with our analysis here.
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  When it comes to player props, we got great rhythm edges for
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  both this the side or the total I should say, and the player
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  prop. But then there's another AI
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  tool, it's called Opta AI. It's now available at vson.com.
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  And of course, if we don't know, I host this pod.
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  I'm an author, I'm an analyst, but I'm also a sports betting
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  analyst for vson.com. So there's this new tool that
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  Vson has added, which pretty much backs up the play on this
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  player prop here for tonight. So a little bit of a short and
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  sweet pod guys, because I do got to run here pretty quick for a
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  doctor's appointment. But I do have two plays for
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  tonight on Thursday Night Football, playing the total and
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  play on a player prop. Now looking back to her last
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  night, nice little 1 and O + 0.95 units.
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  Played that Kent State Ball State Under 47 1/2.
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  Didn't have to sweat too much. It was a 17 to 13 game, which
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  was pretty ugly if you're a football fan or played the over,
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  but it's beautiful if you played the under like we did.
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  Remember that was a contrarian play a little bit elevated are
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  inflated. Also, there was some wind in
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  that game too bad offenses that were at the bottom of the
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  barrel, low conversion on 3rd down pace of play was slow and
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  rhythm had around a 46. Were they also a juice reel
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  sharp mush under? So it's nice to get a little 1
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  and O + 0.95 unit night last night with our Kent State Ball
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  State under. So you can keep it going here.
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  Get a little bit of a hot streak going.
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  Fingers crossed, but let's waste no time and talk about this big
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  Thursday football game. Big matchup here in the AFC
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  West. Vegas and Denver now setting the
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  stage here. 8:15 PM Eastern Time.
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  Get your Amazon Prime locked and loaded.
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  And also just mention this. I noticed on my charges with
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  Amazon I was getting charged twice.
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  So make sure you know what you're getting charged for.
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  I have all these apps, all these different streaming services.
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  Turns out me and my wife are on the same plan.
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  Same family plan, but they're double charging us either I
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  signed up twice or she did, who knows, but luckily she's smart
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  with technology, got me a refund and now we're only paying one
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  payment of 1499 a month for the Prime Video and all that kind of
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  stuff. So double check, make sure
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  you're not getting double charged.
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  Little little PSA today, but anyway, going in this one for
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  tonight. The Raiders two and six.
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  They've lost two straight. Just came up short against the
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  Jags 30 to 29 in overtime last week.
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  Did cover though as a 2 1/2 point home dog.
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  Remember, that was a late addition for the ASG pod on
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  Sunday. On the other hand, the Broncos
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  seven and two flying high. They've won six in a row.
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  Don't remind me. They did beat the Texans 18 to
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  15, one outright as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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  That was annoying because the Texans there and CJ Stroud got
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  hurt. But anyway, what do we see
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  across the market? Well, almost kind of similar to
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  what we saw on Monday night with the Arizona Cardinals, A gross
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  team that no one believes in yet.
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  The line is moving in their favor because this game opened
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  with the Broncos around a 10 1/2 point home favorite and the
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  public says that line isn't too high.
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  Hey, Denver's going to roll. They're seven and two.
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  Raiders are two and six. They're terrible.
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  Broncos will easily win by, you know, double digits.
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  However, even though you're getting 61% of spread bets at
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  DraftKings, laying it with the Broncos, we've actually seen
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  this number fall toward the Las Vegas Raiders.
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  So those 10 and a halfs are down to 9 1/2, some shops down to
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  nine, couple shops even down to 8 1/2.
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  So we have seen this line move toward Vegas.
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  Even though the public is hammering, Denver tells us smart
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  money here is going Vegas in the points.
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  Now, if we look at some more splits here at DraftKings, 39%
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  bets, but 49% dollars on the spread in favor of Vegas.
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  So a little bit low bets, higher dollars in their favor.
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  And then we look at some system matches here.
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  Primetime dogs, again, I was a analysis by paralysis,
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  overthought and laid off that Arizona Cardinals play because
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  I've been hurt so many times with dogs this year in primetime
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  that I kind of cost myself a win.
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  And again, primetime dogs this year are 16 and 12 against the
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  spread, 57%. They're 157 and 138 ATS, 53%
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  with a 2% ROI since 2020. But if you just isolate the big
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  primetime dogs, the German shepherds, the the Beethoven
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  dogs, the Bernese Mountain dogs, those big dogs getting 6 1/2 or
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  more in primetime, they're six and three against the spread
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  this year, 67%. They're 59 and 41 ATS 59% with a
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  13% ROI since 2020. Now Vegas, of course, would be a
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  divisional dog. So because that divisional dog
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  built in familiarity levels, the playing field benefits the team
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  getting points, we have seen these divisional dogs go 319 and
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  279 against the spread, 53 percent, 3% ROI since 2019.
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  If you isolate Rd. divisional dogs, kind of the ultimate buy
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  low spot, they're 196 and 160 ATS, 55% with a 6% ROI since
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  2019. Dogs off a loss playing an
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  opponent off a win. Another buy low sell high play
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  Raiders a match here. They're 24 and 28 TS this year,
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  55% with a 4% ROI this season. Pete Carroll covered last week
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  as a dog. He's been pretty good
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  historically. Well, again, a lot of that times
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  with of course, the Seahawks, but he's the second best dog
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  coach behind or active dog coach behind Mike Tomlin. 54 and 38
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  against the spread 59% with a 14% ROI as a dog in his career.
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  Bill Vinovich lead ref 57% ATS to the road team historically.
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  So again, to me it's Raiders or nothing.
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  It's a decision you guys are going to make.
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  I'm going to lay off because I got a little scared off by
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  there's a lot of systems on short weeks and teams who just
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  went to overtime. So that would kind of be a
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  negative toward the Raiders. But this is clearly a Raiders or
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  nothing play. The reason why I'm not going to
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  play the Raiders, I'm going to lean and root like hell for
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  everybody who's on Raiders in the points is that I like this
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  total more. And again, I don't think you
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  want to force multiple plays, but if there's one play where
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  it's a lean but then another play where everything's lining
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  up perfectly, I'm going to go with the the game or the side or
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  total that I'm more confident. So the play for me is the over.
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  I'm going over 42 1/2 now. It's interesting, the total open
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  at 42 1/2, pretty low number. At one point few days ago, it
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  got down as low as 41 1/2, but then it's gotten back up to 42
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  1/2. And if you look at the 42 1/2
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  right now on game day, all the juice is leaning over.
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  So it's 42 1/2 / -, 115 -, 120. And I'm seeing a couple shops
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  that are even at 43. So you open 42, you're still 42.
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  Again, if you don't pull up the line history or look at the
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  juice, it seems like nothing's going on here.
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  But a closer look leads me to believe that late movement
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  liabilities going over and I do like that at Circa the over is a
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  big pro and Joe Bet split out in Vegas to a higher scoring game.
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  78% bets, 80% dollars on the over and again Circa.
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  Don't worry about public with Circa because it's a sharp book
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  out in Vegas has a smaller clientele, but that clientele is
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  much sharper and they don't get limited overs this year, 72 and
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  6254 percent, 2% ROI. Thursday Night Football overs 5
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  and 456 percent, 4% ROI. But here are some other angles
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  to play the over when the total is 43 or less, what I would
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  define as a low total, the overs 18 and 13 this year, 58 percent,
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  11% ROI. This is crazy.
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  I had to double check Bill Vinovich.
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  Bill Vinovich, did you know? Again, this isn't the only
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  reason I'm playing the over, but it's kind of crazy Bill
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  Vinovich's last 12 games that he's been the lead ref.
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  The over is 12 and O. So again, maybe that's BS, maybe
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  it's coincidental, but maybe calls a lot of penalties and
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  maybe get some pass interference and more scoring and stopping
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  the clock. Now weather shouldn't be an
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  issue at all. Looks like a beautiful night at
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  Mile High, low 50s, high 40s, cloudy skies, two to five mile
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  per hour winds. So nothing really in the way of
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  weather. So we have seen this total stay
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  the same but juiced up and we have a lot of system matches to
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  the over. But here's what really made me
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  play the over. I popped open rhythm and I have
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  two rhythm green star recommendations on this game and
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  they are both on the over. So my NFL model is predicting a
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  green star over with a final score of 45.4 and my second
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  green star play, my Josh model is 46.8.
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  So the juice is leaning up, the late movement liability game day
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  is is leaning up. We have splits, we got system
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  matches, we have low total overplay.
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  We have two green star recommendations to the over.
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  And then the other angle for me is again, you know, it's it's a
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  low total that is, is providing a rhythm edge and it does have a
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  5% sharp much edge to the over as well.
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  So I took a shot on the over 42 1/2.
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  Now again, the goal is to always get the best juice price.
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  So I got over 42 1/2 I believe it was -112 at FanDuel, but a
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  lot of other books are -118 -, 120 and a lot of books are at
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  43. So again, 2 Green Star rhythm
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  recommendations, system matches, splits.
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  I took the over 42 1/2 Raiders Broncos tonight.
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  Now my second play for the game is a player prop and it is the
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  Geno Smith over passing yards. Now my thought process here,
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  couple things going on. One is that we have a very clear
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  Green Star Rhythm recommendation if you go to and by the way,
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  shout out to Rhythm. We do have our live stream
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  tonight, the Rhythm rundown at 6:00 PM.
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  But Rhythm also just totally changed up their layout.
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  It looks great. But if you go to the player
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  props here, there is a Green Star recommendation on Geno
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  Smith over 212 1/2 passing yards.
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  Rhythm is predicting 251. So that is a 38 1/2 yard
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  discrepancy between the market and what Rhythm is is
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  predicting. Now if you do some research
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  here, you'll notice that it's pretty much 212 1/2 at every
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  book, but at DraftKings it's over two O 8 1/2 at -111.
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  So I jumped on DraftKings over two O 8 1/2 at -111 and my
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  thought process here is OK. One, we have a similar plate to
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  two up. Remember we lost the the IT was
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  disgusting. Don't remind me, the Dolphins in
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  the points where we catch that over to a passing prop.
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  I'm thinking Gino's in the same spot.
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  You're a dog, you're expected to lose.
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  You're probably going to be trailing.
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  You're probably not going to just continue to run the ball if
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  you're down by 14. So you're probably have to throw
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  it to keep pace. And maybe we get a lot of
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  garbage yards. You know, second-half, fourth
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  quarter. Also no Pats or Tan.
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  So one of the best cornerbacks in football may be the best
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  corner other than Sauce Gardner, who just got traded to the
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  Colts. Not going to play in this game.
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  Gino is 3 and 1 to the over to this number in his last four Rd.
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  games. And then here's a little cherry
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  on top. Rhythm has a 251 we can get over
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  to a nap. Great value there discrepancy
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  Green star recommended over, but I wanted to just mention Opta
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  AI. Opta AI is a new just AI model
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  that rhythm that that V sin now shows vsin.com and they've done
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  really well. And I've kind of been paying
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  attention from afar and I'm starting to really focus on it
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  because I keep seeing it do well in cash.
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  But Opta AIA little bit like rhythm.
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  It's just an AI model that predicts player props and final
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  scores. But for Geno Smith, OPT AI is
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  predicting 236.1 passing yards. So even if you take OPT AI 236.1
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  rhythms 251, we can get over two 8 1/2 on a guy that is a dog and
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  probably has to throw the ball. I'm going over two O 8 1/2
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  passing yards with Geno Smith at DraftKings at -111 along with
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  the over 42 1/2. So that about does it for
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  today's pod. Episode 390, of course is going
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  to be a short spiel because I got to get out of here.
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  As always, if you do enjoy this pod, thank you.
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  It means the world to me. If you wouldn't mind giving it a
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  five star review on Spotify or iTunes, you would really make my
• 12:30
  day. Recommend the pod to a friend.
• 12:32
  Again, word of mouth is always great to to get someone turned
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  on to something. Next, if you do enjoy the
• 12:38
  insights, the approach, the data analysis and you want to learn
• 12:41
  more about data-driven bedding, please go to Amazon.com and go
• 12:45
  buy my book, one of one or both of my books, the NFL sharp
• 12:48
  betting playbook, the everything guide to sports betting.
• 12:50
  Bring one or both to the sports book.
• 12:52
  I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer.
• 12:54
  Make sure you download Rhythm and Juice Reel, my two favorite
• 12:56
  sports betting apps, Rhythm for their AI backed models and
• 12:59
  predictions. Remember 6:00 tonight we have
• 13:00
  our live stream, myself and Kate Harper and Juice Reel where you
• 13:04
  can get the all systems go best bet picks, support the team for
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  $4.99 a week. And then you also get the Robo
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  Next you need a live odds page. Give a shot to odds logic.
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  You got to have a an odds logic live odds page.
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  So if you want to try it out, seven day free trial, 50% off
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  your first month, go to oddslogic.com/josh 123 Novig.
• 13:40
  Novig is a great sports betting exchange, not just as it's not a
• 13:43
  sports book, but again, you're going to get better juice prices
• 13:46
  because you don't have to bet with these -110 -, 115 -, 1
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  twenties. You're going to get -1 O 5 - 1 O
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  8 plus one O 2. So you can win at the same rate
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  you would at a book, but turn a better profit because you're
• 13:57
  risking less juice. So download the Novig app and
• 14:00
  when you do, when you fund your account, there should be a
• 14:02
  little little coupon code or promo field put in Josh 123.
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  You'll get 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks so that about dozen
• 14:10
  guys. I know it's short and sweet, but
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  I got to get out of here to make my doctor's appointment.
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  But as always, two final thoughts.
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  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
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  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
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  Sundown in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
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  Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the
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  woods in Nashville, New Hampshire on the border of Mass
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  or out in the desert at Circa, whether it's South Point as
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  well. You're going to walk up to me.
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  Show me a beautiful Kent State Ball State under ticket.
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  Nice to catch a very slow, very quiet, slow and low scoring game
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  there. First one's on me, next one's on
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  you. Will post about the book
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  Sweatsharp Contrarian plays all night long.
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  So as always, guys coming off A1 and O or an O and one good
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  night, bad night, winning night, losing night, hot, cold,
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  somewhere in the middle, grinding.
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  Just got to keep sticking with it.
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  Staying true to the model discipline with our bankroll.
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  If we can find the plays that fit our model against the
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  public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
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  and get that COV. If we can do that, we're going
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  to be successful sports vetters. So have a great night everybody
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  enjoy Thursday Night Football. Let's get the over in the game.
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  Let's get the over with Gino and I'll see you at 6:00 tonight
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  Eastern Time for the rhythm rundown live on Twitter.
• 15:17
  You can follow me at Josh under score insights.
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  We'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big Friday
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  edition episode 391 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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  podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
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  great Thursday night.