Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on New Zealand's economic outlook being downgraded by experts

Transcript

Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on New Zealand's economic outlook being downgraded by experts · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk SEDB. Follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. Now.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: An international research group has downgraded our economic outlook. BMI
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: is a division of Fitch Solutions, which also includes Fitch Ratings.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: But they all insist the completely independent of each other
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: and there's nothing to worry about. Here's the problem. BMI
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: is predicting GDP will grow by just one percent this year.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: That's down from one point two percent, which it was
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: previously thinking. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor at
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: large ALM. You know, okay, so they're basing this by
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the sounds of things on the first quarter.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, they and looking out at some of the
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: risks and things coming at us. They're looking at consumer spending.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: They look at some pretty detailed secondary type data that
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Product Producers Index and the PMI and that kind of
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: stuff for what's happening with manufacturing. I mean, you know,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: it's not wildly out of line with some of the
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: gloomy outlooks from the banks and so forth right now,
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: but it just shows you that that the trend is
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: still not good. So they're seeing it deteriorating, you know,
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: and I should add there's there's always that upside. They
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: still see interest rate cuts this year. In fact, they
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: still see two of them. I think they're.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: Probably really when how do we fit two in?
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: I guess November. I think there's an October as well.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, so they must be an October November.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: I think that's pushing it. But of course what that
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: means is that they're in the camp, and the sort
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: of is two camps. There's the camp that's worried that
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: this non tradable inflation is just going to be sticky
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: and stay there for Yeah. There's the other one that goes,
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: oh no, no, New Zealand's going off a cliff, the
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: economy's falling.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Which one do you fall into?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Well?
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I fall into that we're going off a cliff and
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: we're going to have to do something.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: It's weird that that's the more optimistic one. But I think,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: like you, I've been in the let's pull the band
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: aid off quick camp for a while and I think
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: I think things are, you know, slowing pretty fast. And
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: I mean it's possible that non tradeable inflation, the service
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: sector stuff and ensuring and rents or just you know,
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: keeps sticking there for longer. But actually, you know, if
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: the economy really starts tanking, yeah, it could also just
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: come off a lot faster than what the Reserve Bank
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: is talking about. They have to talk to if they
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: have to, you know, until they see the whites of
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: its eyes or whatever.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: But a lot of a lot of the big international
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: players are sticking with these earlier cut forecasts and you know,
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: pretty downbeat about the prospects for the next year ahead
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: for us.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Is this going to affect what Fitch Ratings does?
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: It shouldn't, I mean, but they will read it. They'll
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: read it. They'll read it. They'll read all the economic stuff,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: but the stuff coming from the guys down the corridor,
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: I guess they would be weird if they didn't pay
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: attention to that. Yes, it also reads fairly similarly to
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: the kind of commentary that we had all that that
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: it was a business test story. Actually I wrote about
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: where de lepe Fonseca talked to the Fitch Ratings guy
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: and he said similar things to this. And there's the
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: warning there that, hey, you know, if China, China's economy
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: doesn't bounce back, or if it slows a bit more
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: then the numbers could look even worse for us, because
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: you know we're still so reliant on that.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. Hey, have you like this is so weird?
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: And I'm sorry to do this, yere, but I thought
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: of you when this came out. Have you seen the
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: surf park that's going to be built in Auckland?
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pretty cool.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Are you going to go?
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Well, it's a long time since I got up any
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: sort of speed on a surfboard, but these waves are
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: perfect right there. Yes, I thought you were more of
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: a surfing well I did used to leave live and
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: breathe it a long time ago. I'm know Scott Robertson,
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: you know he's out there dreaming up you know how to.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Well listen would be Would this be your return to surfing?
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: It could be because the thing that got me with
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: surfing right is that if you're not doing it all
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: the time, the bit where you get out the back
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: and paddle through all the way hard, the hard bit. Yeah,
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: that's the bit that sort of put me off because.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Would you pay ninety bucks for an hour? Oh?
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Look, I've been and done this skiing up in north
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: of Auckland. You know it's it's worth a go, isn't it. Yeah, Yeah,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: I properly would go to God, and I might shout
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: the kids. You know, they're sort of more likely to
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: get up fast on them.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I might shout the kids. What a generous father, Liam,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much, really appreciated. That's Liam dand The
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Herald's Business editor at largest.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: For more from News Talks at B, listen live on
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio