I Found a Profitable Under 3.5 Goals Strategy on Betfair

Betfair Trading Community Podcast · Sep 10, 2026 · 14m

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Under 3.5 Goals sounds like one of the simplest football strategies you could trade.

But simple does NOT automatically mean profitable.

So I put an Under 3.5 Goals strategy through the backtesting software to see what would actually happen over a large sample of matches.

And the results got interesting.

In this episode, I break down:

The exact Under 3.5 Goals strategy

The backtested results

Profit and ROI

Strike rate

Losing runs

The filters that made the biggest difference

Whether I’d actually trade it going forward

This is exactly why I like backtesting.

You can take an idea…