Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: FED Pivot Rug Pull + Stock Market News 10 June 2024

Transcript

Warning: FED Pivot Rug Pull + Stock Market News 10 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix there, welcome to this live stream, to another exciting week.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: It is, of course, a Fed week, it's also an Apple week and it's also time for this old banker to add some more white powder to his drink, as they teach us in banking.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Just get it, guys, it's just electrolytes.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Don't do drugs, children, and make sure your electrolytes are sugar-free, otherwise the hit you're getting is going to make you fat rather than more energetic.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Now what have we got in store today?
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We've got JP Morgan out with a big warning of what the Fed's about to do, and the Fed's going to do something fairly big in the middle of the week.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: We, of course, want to talk about Apple.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Because I know Nvidia is the big excitement, but Apple does still make the market huge.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Apple event today we walk through the numbers how to play it, how we can make money out of it and have absolutely everything else.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: If you enjoy this video, you know what to do.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: You destroy one of the buttons in front of you and ask me questions.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I will do my best to answer them.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Let's jump straight into it.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan and Citi have scrapped their rate cut bets for July after last Friday's abysmal jobs data.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Well, allegedly a lot of jobs were created in, you know, the basement of McDonald's or something.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Apparently, 10,000 jobs are at risk.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Mcdonald's jobs in California the rate hike, wage hike rather, mmm, that's good.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: California, the rate hike, wage hike rather that's good.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And basically saying, look stronger jobs.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Numbers mean the Fed can't cut right.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And if you look at markets expectations, now this isn't some stupid poll, not some clipboard wielding nutter who went around and asked everyone on Wall Street, these are Fed fund futures.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: These are traded instruments and we're now looking here at see the first rate cut is now priced in for December.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: What happened to six rate cuts this year?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: What happened to the first rate cut in March and then in July and then in September, and two, maybe one, is now what we're looking at and that should kind of be a bit of a kick in the nuts for us stock investors, especially if you're in tech.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: But is it really going to plan out that way?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I think that's what we kind of need to look at, right, so the Fed is still projecting.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: The Fed is now projecting in black here.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: That's the Fed, and I'm using a blue pen just to confuse you.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: That's the Fed in black and in blue.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: That's the market.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: The market is now more conservative, more hawkish than the bunch of sherry wielding nutters at the Fed, which is kind of peculiar, right.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So the market really has been shaken, not stirred, and is feeling rather worried about it.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So, again, till the end of next year, I'm going to have to find a black pen, aren't I?
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: To make this a little bit less confusing, in the end of next year, in 2025, the Fed is basically saying we're going to cut rates by minus 1.5% and the market going no, you won't, you might do 1.2% or so.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So there's a big discrepancy here with what the Fed's saying, what the market's expecting.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So what the Fed's about to say in the coming days really, really matters.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Here is some senior economist at Generali, paolo Cianciangheri.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, I made him Chinese, but you get the idea.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: What is he saying?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Well, he is saying the Fed should give a hawkish tilt to its stance without dismissing a state.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: A start of rate cuts in the second half.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Our base case is two cuts, with just one as the second, most likely scenario.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: These guys were screaming off the top of their you know whatever Italian buildings.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: They scream off Six rate cuts just a couple of months ago.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: So what the heck has actually changed?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Is the economy that much stronger?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Is that really likely?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Well, before we look at short interest and how to make money out of this and how to trade it and how to turn you into a truly profitable trader and I'm going to look at your questions in a second you see the thing at the bottom of the screen Live trading training.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I'll show you how I do this.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Last week I traded I think I traded live with you guys Monday, tuesday and I think on Wednesday, thursday, I traded on my own.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: You know, in my dark basement.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: We made $5,399.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: On how much money?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: How much money traded on my own?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: You know my dark basement we made $5,399.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: On how much money?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: How much money are we abusing?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: We're using about a $30,000 portfolio.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So last week we made $5,000 on a $30,000 portfolio and I'm not promising you that outcome.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: That would be illegal.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: But I promise to show you, like, how I do that, if you want to know how I do that.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And you think, oh, that was a fluke, june was a fluke.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe June was a fluke.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Was June a fluke?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at May.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: This is a tracker I use and you're thinking show me.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: In May I did almost nothing.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I was mostly traveling around the world enjoying myself, but we still finished the month with $4, again on 30K.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We did the same thing again in April and April we did 6,500.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So if you're saying, oh, felix, I don't believe you, someone always says that that's okay, let me show you the portfolio.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Do you know how options or brokers show profits?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: This is how Not particularly user-friendly, is it?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: That's why I show it to you on a calendar, some app, where you can connect it.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: It imports your trades and you can see it, because this would be a pain in the neck to go through.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: But that's the reason.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Current portfolio is also up another $4,000 here on the trades that are actually open.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We don't count those as profits until we've matched the chickens and all that kind of good stuff.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So, seriously, come and join me.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Go to phoenixfrontsorg slash training Takes you to this page, put in your name, sign up.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: It's completely free and you will learn my three-step trading system and we're going to do some live trading together, which will be fun.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfrontsorg slash training For you guys.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Already inside our community, you see that Live trading in 30 minutes as well, so for everybody in there as well.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Now we definitely have to talk about Apple, but before we do, let's just look a little bit more at the global wider story here, and that is that short interest show.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: The shorts are at the highest level since, well, two years, and that means some people are thinking we are peaking, we are topping, we are overly exuberant.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Hedge funds have sold tech for five days now in a row.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: They are feeling a bit like let's take some money out of it, right, and this, though, is B of A Bank of America.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: They've got a little indicator.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Up here, you're extremely bullish, up here, you are miserably depressed, and this goes back to like 2000.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: And right now we're here, so we're neither particularly bullish nor particularly bad.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: We're kind of in the middle, and that sort of implies that there is more room for upside, which I actually agree with.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I think there is more room for upside, but the two big things happening this week that we need to understand One is WWDC.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: What does that actually stand for?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Anybody know any Apple ratty lot here.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Apple has 1.5 billion iPhones out there installed.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: That's the installed user base, and the question is, how many of those can they convince to buy the iPhones at 16?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: .
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So I think they're going from iPhone 15 to 16, right?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: How many people can you convince?
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: The estimates are, if they can convince the world that you need a new AI phone.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So if AI is the lever as in your old phone, sucks, it can't do what you want to do then they might be able to sell something like 300 million new handsets, which would be a lot, be a lot of money, a lot of revenue for Apple.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: That would finally get them out of the declining revenue zone and I am kind of with them on that.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I think the both Macs, ipads and phones will go into this upgrade cycle JP Morgan says it too and it is going to be AI Now.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be the iPhone 16 Ultra Plus, whatever, but I think it'll come.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And it is going to be AI Now.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be the iPhone 16 Ultra Plus, whatever, but I think it'll come, and it'll come in the next 12 months.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I would think maybe 18 months.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Can we trade it?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Well, let's have a look at the chart first.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: It's a screenshot from Options Watch.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: And what have you got?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: You've got top, top, top, top, right?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So what happens if you connect those tops and you say top a lot, you lose your marbles, so that's sort of the thing.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So you would normally say, well, we're going to have to bounce and the stock's going to come down right Without any news.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I would agree with that.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: But with the news today, there is a significant chance it is going to moon, as is the technical term on Wall Street, and so far it's up a quarter of a percent this morning, pre-market.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Well, nvidia is down a percentage point.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean a lot, it's pre-market, it's early days and all that stuff.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: But is there a way to make money out of that?
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say there probably is.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: There's probably a trade.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: We might put one on today when I run my live trading.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: This is a suggestion.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I'm never recommending trades, obviously.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: This here would have a 75% chance of making us money.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: It would position us Wait for that.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: It would position us here, here, as Jean Moreau says and it basically would mean that let me get another color pen.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Apple could either go up, which would be great, or it could drop minus 4.7%, and we still make money, right, because that's how we have a high probability trade.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: We're positioned below the market.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: You want to learn how the hell that gobbledygook works and let me explain that to you a little bit more clearly.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Come and join me tomorrow live 8 pm Eastern time at FelixWensterdorfcom, and I'll really break it down for you as a systematic way.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Now a couple of other major things happening this week.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: We get inflation data on Wednesday, woo-hoo, and then we get the Fed interest rate decision.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: It will be nil point as in.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: It won't go up or down.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And we're going to get the Fed press conference but also the economic projections.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So you get a bit of an insight into is the Fed starting to see the economy slowing down?
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Because I do.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: But the question is, do the sherry pickled?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Lot of the Fed do, and if they do, that would make the market more bullish on things like tech and maybe a bit more conservative on things like discretionary consumer stocks and so on.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So very, very important Wednesday coming up.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: That's really pretty much the only thing that matters this week.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: If you want to just go to sleep, wake up after Wednesday, that'd be a fair thing to do.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Big day Wednesdays, as Ken, absolutely Ken.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Very, very big day.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Now there's something else that I explained from a muddy mountain on the weekend, and that is it's a little bit complicated, but I think it's worth for you to understand.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: This is a screenshot from optionswatchio.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: If you're not over there already, I'll put the link in the chat here optionswatchio Get yourself a free one-month trial of that.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: And what can you see?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: There are two lines here.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: There's a red bar here, right, and then there is that green bar here, and what do they mean?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Where they're sitting.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: What's the story?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: They're both sitting at 5,350, which is this is on the S&P 500, right, this is SPX S&P 500 index, and having these two there together means support and resistance are both at the same price.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: What does it mean?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: It pins the market to 5,350 for this week and Basically, what happens is market goes up, the dealers the market makers have to sell, so stock comes back down, stock drops, and the dealers they have to buy, so the stock goes back up.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So it pins the market around this 3-5-3-50 mode.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: And now it is, of course, possible that Apple or the Fed does something bizarre and we break out of this, but the likelihood is therefore that we stick here and can you make money out of that?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to set up a trade on that today live inside the live trading session that I'm about to do and you know you can do some interesting things with it.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could do something like this where you position yourself out somewhere and see that green zone there on the right.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: That's your profit zone, right.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: So you're just saying, okay, we stay in this range between 5 to 70 and 5 for 20 or something.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: You could make it wider.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: You'd make 44% by the end of the week, which wouldn't be too bad.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So you could go out a bit more.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: You could be a bit generous there and, you know, let it go a little bit.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Still making 24% by the end of the week with a now 69% chance of that happening Probably a little higher given the way the market's set up.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So there's stuff like that that we can do if we really understand what the heck we're doing.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: And I'd love for you to understand what the heck you're doing.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: So come and join me on Tuesday evening, felixfrenzelorg training and you're going to get into the actual systems and rules that we use here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So pre-market Nvidia down a bit.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: The rest of the market pretty flat.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, fat drugs are up, but other than that, pretty flat.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Walmart's up a touch.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Tesla is down half a point.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Nothing major AMD down 2.7%.