Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 19: Talking Texas Primaries, with Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune

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Episode 19: Talking Texas Primaries, with Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: As always, everything's bigger in Texas and there's a ton to talk about.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: This is now the most expensive Senate primary anywhere.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Runoffs in Texas do tend to favor the more conservative,
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: grassroot-sy candidate because turnout is lower.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: Is it possible,
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 0:12
  that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is going to find itself
• 0:15
  havingto
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: defend Paxton as the Republican nominee?
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's interesting,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: so far through early voting,
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: we've seen Democrats out voting Republicans.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: The Republican electorate that's been turning out has been old.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's been definitely the biggest feature.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: I have a feeling this one is going to be close.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Geoffrey Skelley, your host, the chief
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: elections analyst here at DDHQ.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, it's almost primary time!
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: This coming Tuesday,
• 0:53
  March 3rd,
• 0:54
  three states — Arkansas,
• 0:55
  NorthVarolinaandTexas—willholdtheirregular
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: primaries to nominate candidates for various federal and state offices.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: This will
• 1:03
  begin a six-month run of primaries across 50 states and the District of
• 1:07
  Columbia,
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: with the final races occurring all the way in mid-September.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: But on March 3rd, Texas will be hosting the biggest contests.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: In the state's U.S.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: Senate race,
• 1:17
  Republican Senator John Cornyn is caught in a three-way primary clash with
• 1:20
  State
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt,
• 1:24
  with a potential runoff on May 26th looming because no candidate looks
• 1:27
  likelyto
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: win a majority.
• 1:29
  And Texas is one of a few southern states that requires a majority to win a
• 1:33
  nomination.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile,
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: on the Democratic side,
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: we have two sort of fast-rising Democratic candidates,
• 1:39
  up-and-comers in Representative Jasmine Crockett and State
• 1:42
  RepresentativeJames
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Tallarico,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: who are both hoping to put the state in play in November.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Down the ballot, some U.S.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: House primaries have grabbed their own share of headlines.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: Most notably,
• 1:54
  Representative Tony Gonzales faces a tough primary challenge under a cloud
• 1:57
  of
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: scandal regarding an alleged affair with a staffer.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: The staffer committed suicide last September.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: And earlier this week,
• 2:04
  texts that showed Gonzales had sent explicit messages to the staffer came
• 2:09
  out,
• 2:09
  which has led even some Republicans in Congress to call for his resignation.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: Beyond that race,
• 2:14
  Texas' redistricted map has precipitated a number of heated primary
• 2:17
  contestsfor
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: both parties.
• 2:19
  And so,
• 2:20
  as always,
• 2:20
  everything's bigger in Texas,
• 2:22
  and there's a ton to talk about.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: And to get into what's happening in the Lone Star State,
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: I am very thrilled to welcome Gabby Birenbaum,
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: the Washington correspondent for The Texas Tribune.
• 2:32
  Gabby joined us back in December to talk about Texas at the filing deadline.
• 2:37
  Now she's back to help us get a handle on everything that's happening on
• 2:40
  Tuesday.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, Gabby, welcome back to the podcast.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy how quickly this primary season has gone.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: It feels like it was just filing deadline day.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, Texas is one of the first states to vote.
• 2:52
  Though the fact that there's the possibility of some primary runoff
• 2:55
  stretchingthis
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: thing out for another two and a half months or so,
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: nearly three months,
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: may make this a little longer for some of the races.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess, actually, maybe that's the natural place to start.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: which is with the US Senate race and the Republican primary,
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: where Republican Senator John Cornyn looks to be in some trouble.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: And so I was I was kind of curious if there's been some talk,
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 3:20
  in the last few days here at the end about some attack ads being run against
• 3:24
  Wesley
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: Hunt,
• 3:25
  whoissortofthethirdcandidateinthisracewithwithJohnCornynandKen
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: Paxton.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I was sort of curious.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: Hunt has made this out to be like evidence that he's rising.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: and maybe catching up here at the end.
• 3:38
  And there was a poll that just came out that found Hunt only a little bit back in
• 3:45
  third place.
• 3:46
  AndsoIwasjustkindofcuriouswhatyourtakeisatthispointonsortofthe
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: competitiveness of this three-way contest.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think you can sort of take it two ways.
• 3:53
  I think the Hunt camp would certainly argue they don't want to face us in a
• 3:57
  runoff
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: because he could win.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that might be true.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Hunt has something up on both Paxton and Cornyn.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: On Paxton,
• 4:04
  he'slongmadethecasehecanbothexcitetheMAGAbasethewayPaxtondoes
• 4:10
  without turning people off because of the ethical baggage that Paxton
• 4:13
  carries
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: between various
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: investigations and his recent divorce and things like that.
• 4:19
  And so I think he would probably in a head to head matchup in a runoff be
• 4:22
  formidable.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: The question is, can he get there?
• 4:25
  Both campaigns and I should say the super PACs supporting Paxton and Cornyn
• 4:29
  have
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: both spent a lot of money against Hunt.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think what that tells me is they would rather run against each other.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's sort of been the case all along.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think both feel better about beating the other, if possible.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: And most every poll has shown Hunt in third place.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: Most every public poll and, you know, non-internal from the Hunt camp.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 4:51
  and so you mentioned sort of running ads and maybe the Cornyn side and Paxton
• 4:57
  side
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: would,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: all things considered,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: prefer to run against each other,
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: probably because it was sort of their plan from the outset.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Hunt didn't get into the race until October.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: as sort of a third option forever.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: It just seemed like a Cornyn and Paxton largely head-to-head matchup.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I've now brought up on screen,
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: I wanted to talk about this for a second,
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: because according to AdImpact...
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: which tracks ad spending and contests.
• 5:25
  This is now the most expensive Senate primary anywhere that they have on
• 5:31
  record
• 5:32
  with now just a bit over $110 million either spent or in bookings in the next
• 5:38
  few
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: days.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's interesting because overall of that,
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: $64 million has gone to supporting John Cornyn.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: And yet he finds himself
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: In a,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 5:51
  basically running even with Ken Paxton in the polls here and still well short
• 5:57
  of
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: 50%.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess it's,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: is there really any sign of a Cornyn late surge here recovering or,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: he's clearly a very beleaguered incumbent.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 6:11
  And I think what I'm really interested to see is what exact number do each of
• 6:17
  these
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: candidates come in at next week?
• 6:18
  Because I think there's a big difference between a Paxton-Cornyn runoff
• 6:22
  where
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Paxton is over 40,
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: and let's say Cornyn is in the low 30s.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think that definitely will set off alarm bells for donors.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: If it's really close,
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: like a lot of the polls have been showing,
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: I think maybe that's proof positive for what
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: These D.C.
• 6:34
  establishment groups that have been supporting Cornyn and donors have been
• 6:37
  saying
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: that,
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: if you can get,
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: a Trump endorsement or if we can keep pumping money into this,
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: we can get him over the line.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be difficult,
• 6:44
  especially because runoffs in Texas do tend to favor the more conservative,
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: grassroot-sy candidate because turnout is lower.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: when you look at all the money that's already been spent on Cornyn,
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: the idea behind this is if we can get Cornyn through the primary,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: we being sort of Republicans sitting here in D.C.
• 7:02
  as well as his allies in Texas,
• 7:04
  then they don't need to worry about Texas.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: They can spend money where they want to spend money in North Carolina.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: in Maine, in Michigan, we're all over the map.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think the Paxton camp would point out,
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: okay,
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: but you've already spent tens of millions of dollars.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: This is really sort of the money saving move that you planned.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think it's gonna be really interesting to see
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: what happens in the runoff.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: all that money spent on the Cornyn campaign so far,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: like you mentioned,
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: has brought him and Paxton about even.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: It has made a difference,
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: though,
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: because,
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: when Paxton first entered the race last spring,
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: he was winning by like a double digit margin.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: So it's definitely closed the gap.
• 7:40
  It just hasn't,
• 7:41
  you know,
• 7:41
  launched Cornyn passed 50 percent or anything like that.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's a really good point that you make.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: Back when it was a head-to-head race before Hunt got in,
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: the Decision Desk HQ polling average definitely showed Paxton leading.
• 7:54
  I think the challenge for Cornyn is that kind of what it showed is Paxton lost
• 7:59
  support.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: But Cornyn wasn't necessarily picking up a lot,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: sort of like voters moving into maybe the undecided camp saying,
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: maybe I don't want Paxton,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm still not necessarily favoring Cornyn here,
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: which then maybe,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: that may have played into why Wesley Hunt thought,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: you know what,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: I am going to go ahead and go for it.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: He was,
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 8:17
  spent some money trying to broaden his name idea around the state before he
• 8:21
  got
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: into the race.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: But he but I think perhaps that
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: may have actually opened the door a little bit.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be kind of a funny thing, right?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: The Cornyn spending,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: lowering support for Paxton,
• 8:32
  but not necessarily boosting it for Cornyn could have maybe encouraged Hunt
• 8:35
  toget
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: into the contest.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mentioned it sort of there at the outset,
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: but from those AdImpact numbers,
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: you do see that the anti-Hunt spending,
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: there has been a little bit here toward the end.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I, and, you know, to me, it's, it's,
• 8:54
  the thing that I've been telling people who've been like looking at the polls
• 8:56
  and
• 8:56
  whatnot is,
• 8:57
  Idon'twanttowriteoffHuntbecauseprimariesareweirdandthere's
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: more polling error.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: And even if,
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: and I'll bring it up right now,
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: we haven't actually had a chance,
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think to add in the latest poll,
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: to,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: to the Decision Desk average that just came out in Texas.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: But it wouldn't really change the broad strokes here,
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: which is that Paxton and Cornyn are locked in the low to mid 30s.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: And Hunt is hovering somewhere between or somewhere around 20,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: maybe a little bit above 20,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: maybe a little below percent.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: And just thinking about
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: polling error and knowing how primaries work,
• 9:37
  you could have some voters who are thinking about voting for Hunt who get to
• 9:41
  the
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: polls on Election Day and have seen some Cornyn ads that are like,
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know what,
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just going to vote for Cornyn.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: He's probably the safer bet here.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Or you'll have some Cornyn voters saying,
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 9:52
  that are some voters who've been thinking about voting for Cornyn saying
• 9:55
  like,
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: man,
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: Hunt's actually maybe rising here at the end.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: And he'd probably be a better bet to beat Paxton.
• 10:02
  And then the sort of way voters are thinking about this stuff is not
• 10:07
  necessarily
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: straightforward.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've run into any of that in your coverage of this.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think what was sort of striking to me throughout polling,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's tightened up as early voting has begun.
• 10:19
  But the number of voters who were undecided was always like at least 20
• 10:22
  percentin
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: nearly every poll.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's interesting,
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: so far through early voting,
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: we've seen Democrats out voting Republicans.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: The Republican electorate that's been turning out has been
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: old.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's been definitely the biggest feature.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that plays into the race at all.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: Hunt has sort of made an age-related push,
• 10:41
  sayingthathecansortofcarryontheTrumpagendalongafterTrumpisoutof
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: office,
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: and certainly Cornyn and Paxton,
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: who are both older than him.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: So I wonder if that matters as well to voters based on who's turning out.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: it was always an uphill battle for Hunt,
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: just given that those,
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:59
  Paxton and Cornyn are both statewide names who have run and won statewide
• 11:03
  multiple
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: times,
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: over decades.
• 11:05
  But yeah,
• 11:06
  I mean,
• 11:06
  polling in Texas for primaries is notoriously difficult.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: So I definitely wouldn't write them off.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: In terms of just because if this does go to a primary runoff,
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: a big part of the conversation is going to be about
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: if it's Paxton versus Cornyn,
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: which does seem like the most likely matchup,
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_01: clearly there's going to be,
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: and you mentioned it already a little bit,
• 11:27
  but the conversations about is Paxton a weaker general election candidate?
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: And some of the general election polling,
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: it's early,
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: so I don't want to take it all to the bank,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: but it does seem to suggest that at least to a little,
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: at least a small extent,
• 11:42
  that Paxton is in a closer race with either of the Democratic potential
• 11:47
  nominees.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: And so I guess...
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: I guess for Republicans who are looking to keep this off the board,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: is there something else they can throw it,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: sort of throwing spaghetti at the wall?
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I say this because you actually had,
• 12:02
  IsawjusttheadtodayfromtheJohnCornyn-NRSCsortofjointfundraising
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: committee.
• 12:10
  They put out an ad where they basically are just going after Paxton so hard.
• 12:14
  And is it possible though that the National Republican Senatorial
• 12:17
  Committeeis
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: gonna find itself having to defend Paxton?
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: as the Republican nominee.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's a strange situation.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: it's sort of unprecedented,
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: how much they've been attacking a fellow Republican,
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: sort of breaking the Buckley Rule there,
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: who could very well be the nominee,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: has been leading most polls,
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: tied or leading most polls to be the nominee.
• 12:37
  I think everybody acknowledges that Texas will certainly be closer than it
• 12:41
  wasin
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: 2024,
• 12:42
  just given that this looks like a better cycle for Democrats than last year
• 12:45
  was.
• 12:45
  And depending on who the Democratic candidate is and what exactly the
• 12:48
  matchup is,
• 12:50
  I think Republicans might have to spend some level of money there on the
• 12:53
  Senate
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: race.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps regardless,
• 12:55
  I think certainly people in the Cornyn camp would say Cornyn can take care of
• 12:58
  it
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: himself.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: He's a good fundraiser.
• 13:00
  All that doesn't necessarily need all this air cover like he's getting now in
• 13:03
  the primary.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think in terms of general election competitiveness,
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: it's not the top of the board for the Democrats.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's not Maine, it's not North Carolina.
• 13:16
  I'd say it's not even maybe Ohio and Alaska in terms of how they're thinking
• 13:20
  about these races.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: But I would definitely say that,
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: and again,
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: depending on what exactly the general election matchup is,
• 13:26
  there'scertainlygoingtobealotofintrigueinthisraceandnotjuston
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: Senate,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: but I think,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:30
  peopleforgetBetoO'Rourkein2018whenhelostbyabouttwoandahalftoTed
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Cruz.
• 13:35
  What did happen was that down ballot Democrats flipped two congressional
• 13:37
  seats.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: two state Senate seats.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: I think they flipped like 12 seats in the State House.
• 13:42
  Sothat'sthekindofstuffwhereitmightreallymatterexactlywho'sonthis
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Senate race and exactly what the margin is at the top,
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: even if,
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: as has happened every time for the last however many cycles,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: the Republican wins.
• 13:54
  No,
• 13:54
  that's an excellent point about the potential sort of down-ballot impact.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: And thinking back to the 2018 example,
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: Beto O'Rourke raised gobs and gobs and gobs of money,
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: but obviously came up just a little bit short against Ted Cruz.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: And so actually,
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: maybe this is a good time,
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: thinking about Beto O'Rourke,
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: who was looking at this race potentially,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: or running for governor again,
• 14:16
  or was part of some of those conversations among sort of leading Democrats
• 14:19
  behind
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: the scenes,
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: but ended up not running.
• 14:24
  Maybeit'sagoodtimetoswitchovertotheDemocraticracewherewehave
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico.
• 14:31
  And,
• 14:32
  you know,
• 14:32
  there was some new polling that just that had Crockett up by 56% to 44%.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that was notable,
• 14:41
  given that we hadn't actually had any public polling of this race that had
• 14:45
  been
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: conducted since late January.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's interesting because on the one hand, we have
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: some polling evidence here,
• 14:55
  andIthinkthere'salsobeensomecasesmadethatearlyvotinghasshownthat
• 14:59
  areas where Crockett would be expected to do well have turned out pretty well
• 15:03
  so
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: far.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: But at the same time,
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: it does seem like,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: not to just bring prediction markets into it,
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: but it just seems like there's a lot of good vibes around James Talarico.
• 15:13
  And so sorting out sort of trying to,
• 15:15
  you know,
• 15:17
  truthfromfictionhereabout
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: Crockett's probably favored, all things considered.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: New poll came out this morning from UT that showed her up 12, right?
• 15:28
  And it was a small sample and a pretty high margin of error,
• 15:31
  but the margin was well beyond.
• 15:33
  I would say,
• 15:34
  just given that her name ID throughout has been higher than his,
• 15:38
  right?
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that can't be discounted even if the sort of
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: Online buzz and the prediction markets,
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: like you mentioned,
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: sort of seem to be around Talarico.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: Crockett is someone that Democratic voters know,
• 15:49
  and she absolutely has that sort of fighter personality and mentality that
• 15:53
  voters
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: have said they're looking for.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: Talarico,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: a much more,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: barnstorming the state has been for months,
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: tons of events.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: He's sort of everywhere.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: They're both really active on social media and online.
• 16:08
  So I think it's I saw this described as sort of a political science question of
• 16:11
  likea
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: traditional well-run campaign apparatus with Talarico versus,
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: name ID and Crockett,
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: who's really good at earning earned media,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: as we call it.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:21
  So,
• 16:21
  you know,
• 16:21
  not necessarily not having to buy an ad to get in front of people's faces.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: She's really good at generating attention and generating media.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to be really interesting.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Like I said, Texas primary is notoriously difficult to pull.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: I have a feeling this one is going to be close.
• 16:36
  And I would say the main thing that people should look at is how Latino voters
• 16:39
  break.
• 16:41
  I think it's,
• 16:41
  you know,
• 16:42
  undoubted that Crockett is going to win Black voters by huge margins.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's what we've seen across polls.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: Most polls show Talarico winning white voters,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: sort of some by smaller margins,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: some by larger margins.
• 16:51
  I think the Latino vote,
• 16:53
  as it often is,
• 16:54
  will probably be determinative in this primary.
• 16:56
  Ithinkrightnowthelatestwesawinearlyvotingisthatthey'recominginat
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say over a third of the Democratic electorate.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: So this is a huge, huge chunk of voters.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: The primary electorate,
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 17:08
  is much younger and much more Latino than we're typically seeing so far
• 17:11
  through
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: early voting.
• 17:12
  There's still several more days of early voting and,
• 17:14
  of course,
• 17:14
  Election Day.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_00: So that could change.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: And polls have shown a bit of a mixed bag.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: Some have shown Talarico winning the Latino vote by 10-ish.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: Some have shown the one that came out today.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think Crockett was up by six.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's really anyone's guess.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, it could be different.
• 17:31
  Both have made campaign stops in the RGV,
• 17:33
  talking to Tejano voters in the Rio Grande Valley.
• 17:36
  But there's tons of Latino voters more in Houston,
• 17:39
  in Dallas,
• 17:40
  of course,
• 17:40
  in San Antonio,
• 17:41
  Austin.
• 17:42
  So the regional differences there will be interesting to me as well when all
• 17:45
  is
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: said and done on Tuesday.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: I know that Tallarico has at times,
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: and let me just say,
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: actually,
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: I've brought up our primary average.
• 17:52
  We still haven't added that new University of Texas poll on this one either.
• 17:55
  So Crockett would probably be ahead by a little bit more than the five points
• 17:59
  orso
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: she's leading.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: in our average.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe call it eight, 10, once we factor that new poll in.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: So kind of close to what that latest result said from Texas.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: we hadn't had any public data in a long time,
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: either no campaign internals,
• 18:15
  which I also think is interesting that neither side was releasing data
• 18:19
  eitherto
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: spur donations,
• 18:21
  whichissooftenthefocusandthereasonyoureleasepollsthataredoneon
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: behalf of your campaign,
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: but we'd see nothing.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: over the past almost nearly a month.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: But I was gonna say that Talarico,
• 18:34
  speaking of Latino voters and thinking about their importance in the
• 18:37
  primary,
• 18:38
  it does seem like Talarico has made a concerted effort to connect himself to
• 18:41
  some
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: down-ballot candidates who are Latino.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: candidates.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: Was it Bobby Pulido?
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think I'm thinking of.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they had a cross endorsement.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: They had to play together and did a podcast, I think.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then Crockett actually endorsed his primary opponent,
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Ada Cuellar,
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: who's also Latina,
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: further left than Bobby Pulido.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: So it's played out.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: This Crockett-
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: Talarico,
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_00: which has turned a little ugly in the last few weeks,
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: has been playing out across these down-ballot candidates too.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: and in terms of it turning ugly,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: I know one major news item was the claim that Talarico basically said,
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: Colin Allred,
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: who had previously been in this race,
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: former congressman,
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: and is actually running basically for his old seat in the House,
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_01: or more or less what is his old seat under the new map,
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_01: that Talarico had said behind the scenes,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: had
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: I said, like, a mediocre Black man or something.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: That was the allegation, yeah.
• 19:40
  The allegation is that Talarico said,
• 19:43
  I didn't call Allred a mediocre black man.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: I said his 2024 Senate campaign was mediocre.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: So that's just been a sort of, yeah, a very online sort of a primary.
• 19:53
  Allred very quickly then openly endorsed Crockett after saying that he
• 19:57
  hadn't
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: planned on endorsing,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: but then basically that was enough to get him off the fence on that.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: or at least engage in terms of endorsing.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I guess if there,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: is there also,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:12
  I think there does seem to be a line of conversation among national Democrats
• 20:16
  who
• 20:16
  areworriedthatCrockettisnotasgoodofageneralelectioncandidateas
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: Talarico would be.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: Whether or not that's actually true,
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think the polling marginally shows that,
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: but again,
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: not massive differences.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it may matter who the Republican opponent is too.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I was kind of curious what,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: What is actually the view in Texas politics about this?
• 20:38
  Because it's really getting into a lot of issues of race and gender and
• 20:42
  obviously
• 20:42
  the Democratic primary electorate is very diverse and it can be
• 20:47
  contentious.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I think Republicans, no doubt, would rather face Crockett.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think they've made no secret of that.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: The NRSC,
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: the National Republican Senatorial Committee,
• 20:56
  sort of boosted Crockett with a bit of an astroturf campaign before she
• 20:59
  announced.
• 21:01
  Governor Abbott has already sort of used her in some early advertising he's
• 21:05
  doneas
• 21:07
  one of several Democratic villains that he thinks can help juice
• 21:10
  Republicansto
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: turn out.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: And they have different theories of the electorate.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: So Talarico,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:15
  has not been shy about saying we need independent voters and moderate
• 21:20
  Republicans.
• 21:20
  And he feels like he can speak to them,
• 21:21
  especially sort of connecting over faith.
• 21:23
  He's really led with being a Christian and sort of a progressive Christian.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: Crockett has sort of dismissed that and said,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: Texas has really low voter turnout relative to the rest of the country,
• 21:35
  that there are these sort of legions of disaffected non voters or infrequent
• 21:39
  voters
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: that she feels like through her sort of
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: non-conventional style that she could turn out.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's a bit of a persuasion versus turnout debate,
• 21:48
  not dissimilar actually to sort of the Paxton-Cornyn debate about what kind
• 21:51
  of
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: electorate they want,
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: ironically.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 21:55
  I think the Talarico model of speaking to independents and moderate
• 21:59
  Republicans,
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's what worked for Taylor Rehmet,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: the state Senate candidate in Tarrant County who just flipped a seat.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: He got, I think,
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: the vast majority of the independent support in that race,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: off cycle and,
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: special election and all that.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:16
  those are the sort of arguments that are playing out and you see Democrats
• 22:19
  come
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: down on both sides,
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: but no doubt Republicans,
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: would rather face Crockett.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: And sort of just thinking about the final,
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to turn back to this ad spending data,
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: it does seem like
• 22:30
  To your point about sort of Talarico running maybe a more conventional
• 22:33
  campaign
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: than Crockett,
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: you do see Talarico between his campaign,
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: which I know has raised more than Crockett's,
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: and then also outside spending help,
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: Overall,
• 22:43
  AdImpact had the data as of February 23rd at Talarico having close to $18
• 22:48
  million
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: in ad support and Crockett having a little more than $4 million.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: So you're talking more than a four to one advantage for Talarico.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: And that seems striking.
• 22:59
  And given that Talarico has a lower name ID,
• 23:02
  as you mentioned,
• 23:02
  than Crockett,
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: Is this maybe the reason why we're still seeing,
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: regardless of the polls,
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: seeing some of the like,
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: Talarico can win this kind of conversation?
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think if you live in Texas,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: you're seeing more Talarico ads than Crockett ads,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: mailers,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: what have you.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this has just been a better funded campaign thus far.
• 23:23
  And he also had,
• 23:23
  he's been campaigning since September,
• 23:26
  I believe is when he launched.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: Crockett sort of got in at the last minute in December.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, that's part of it, too.
• 23:32
  Hehadmonthsofrunwaytobuilduphiscampaignandpeoplewereseeinghimand
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: knew he was running for Senate,
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: all that.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 23:38
  I think that that definitely has been the advantage that Talarico brings is
• 23:42
  that
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: sort of much,
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: much better funding.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: So much better spending so far,
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: higher spending and has outraised Crockett,
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: even though she's been one of the most prolific fundraisers in the U.S.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: House as a Democratic congresswoman.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 23:56
  thatwasthepartaboutitthatwasparticularlyinterestingtomewasthat
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: Crockett has been such a strong fundraiser when it came to her house,
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: her house account,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: but that Talarico was doing so well relative to her.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's not like she wasn't raising anything.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's just Talarico was raising a lot.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so maybe this is...
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: What do people,
• 24:22
  are people saying anything about sort of a James Talarico-Beto O'Rourke
• 24:25
  comparison
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_01: here?
• 24:26
  'Cause I know that there's gonna,
• 24:27
  there's gotta be at least some,
• 24:28
  somelineof—
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think you hear it.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think you hear it for sure.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think, you know, he barnstormed the state, right?
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: He went to every county.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: Talarico is not doing that, but he's certainly, I think going to,
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: They're what, 200 and how many?
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: 254.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there you go.
• 24:45
  I was like,
• 24:46
  I know there are more than 200 and I couldn't remember if it was 40 or 250.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: Quite a few.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Talarico, you know, I think just this week he was at Texas A&M.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to University of Tyler or he already did.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: I can't remember for a rally.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: Crockett, too.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I think they were both in Lubbock recently.
• 25:00
  So,
• 25:01
  I mean,
• 25:01
  they're not just doing Houston,
• 25:03
  Dallas,
• 25:03
  Austin,
• 25:03
  San Antonio,
• 25:04
  right?
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: RGV.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're both making a point to
• 25:07
  to crisscross but tell tell Rico right I mean Crockett goes to DC every week,
• 25:11
  Talarico doesn't have to do that so yeah I mean he's had tons of events all over
• 25:14
  big
• 25:15
  rallies tons of attendance standing room only so I think definitely um
• 25:19
  peopleare
• 25:20
  alwayslookingforforshadesofBetoO'RourkerightDemocratsinTexasandI
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_00: think yeah that comparison has been made
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: Cool.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, close race.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: There is a very slim chance that this could go to a runoff.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: There is a third minor candidate on the ballot,
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: but odds are these two candidates will be winning almost all of the vote,
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: and so someone will probably clear 50%.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_01: But that would be just sort of the amusing.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen this happen before.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_01: Very tight race in a state that has runoffs.
• 25:51
  I remember Thad Cochran and the Republican primary in 2014 famously managed
• 25:57
  tosurvive
• 25:58
  inpartbecausehenarrowlywastrailinginthefirstroundagainstamore
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: conservative Republican opponent.
• 26:05
  but the the third candidate in the race got a couple percent and they both were
• 26:09
  just
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: under 50% and it forced them into a runoff.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously with a May 26 runoff date, that
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: would be a lot more time for advertising, a lot more things a lot more
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: developments could happen in the race.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: But obviously it seems more likely to
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: happen on the Republican side.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: To transition over to the US House picture,
• 26:29
  we're not going to cover every US House race because there are a lot of
• 26:32
  interesting
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_01: primaries in the US House.
• 26:34
  But I did think that one interesting thing that could be going on here in
• 26:39
  Texas,
• 26:39
  and we mentioned this actually in our previous conversation back in
• 26:42
  December,
• 26:43
  but we could see potentially near-term record turnover in the House
• 26:51
  delegationfrom
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Texas.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: So right now, at least,
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: One of Al Green or Christian Menefee is not going to win their primary.
• 27:00
  So assuming one of them,
• 27:01
  including one of them,
• 27:02
  we don't know who will be yet.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll talk about that in a minute.
• 27:06
  You're going to have at least 10 incumbents who are currently serving are not
• 27:10
  going
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: to be there anymore.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: And that number could rise to as many as, I think, 13.
• 27:14
  I mean,
• 27:16
  who knows,
• 27:16
  theremightbeanothersurprisewaitingbutthepointisthatwouldbe—
• 27:19
  And then it depends if some general election losses could happen,
• 27:22
  toosoyeah
• 27:23
  Correct,
• 27:24
  yes,
• 27:24
  I'mjustthinkingabouttheprimariesyesrightyeahsosoatthis
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: point uh about
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know, 10 of 38 incumbents will not be back at the very least.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's about 26% of the delegation,
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: which puts it kind of close to some high points that we saw 2018,
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: 2004,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: 2004
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: famously after another redistricting cycle,
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans redistricted the state ahead of the 2004 elections.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: And then also in 1996, like 30%.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so I only went back to the early 90s on this stat, but
• 27:55
  uh it's very possible that if you get you know if you get like two more
• 27:58
  basically
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: you jump up to up higher than any of those in like 32% or so.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: I was curious
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: just thinking about that, this is a potentially
• 28:12
  one of those cycles to remember in Texas in terms of maybe a changing of the
• 28:16
  guard
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: in politics there.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: it's going to be a really different delegation that we see come 2027,
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: particularly on the Republican side.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_00: You have six retirements.
• 28:27
  You have the potential for up to five new people coming in with these
• 28:31
  redistricting
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: seats if they were to win all five.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: But even if they only win three, let's say that's three new people.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, a lot of the people leaving are those more senior members.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_00: And Texas Republicans, because they send more Republicans to the U.S.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: House than any other state,
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_00: if they band together and they want something historically,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: they can speak with a really loud voice in the Republican Conference.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_00: But as Republicans
• 28:52
  the delegation has gotten less senior and also just more ideologically
• 28:55
  divided
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: where,
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:57
  some of these members might see themselves as a Freedom Caucus person first
• 29:00
  anda
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_00: Texas delegation member second,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 29:02
  And you've got people spanning from problem solvers to Freedom Caucus and
• 29:05
  everything in between.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_00: That sort of Texas power,
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 29:08
  has definitely diminished and will only more so diminish as some of these,
• 29:13
  Michael
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: McCaul,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: Jodey Arrington.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: Former committee chairs or current committee chairs leave.
• 29:18
  And it'll be really interesting with these primaries to see not all of them
• 29:21
  have
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: like an establishment versus grassroots, MAGA,
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_00: whatever you want to call it.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: Not all of them have that dynamic, but some do.
• 29:29
  Andit'llbeinterestingtoseesortofwhatwingsofthepartyorwhatthese
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: new members represent or what interests they bring to the table,
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: because it is going to be a really new looking delegation.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, obviously, a fascinating time for watching US House races.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: Texas,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: as I mentioned,
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: one of the states that redistricted.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: Sort of kickstarted perhaps this national
• 29:50
  redistrictingwarinthe2026cyclebydrawingamapthathastheintentionof
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: picking up five more House seats for Republicans.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: Remains to be seen if they'll actually get that.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like they'll get at least two.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: And then from there, it's maybe three's
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_01: the most likely, or four, but will they actually get all five?
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: They've targeted a couple Democrats in South Texas,
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: in Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez,
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_01: who could maybe hold on and Trump-won seats,
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: especially if Latino voters swing back to any substantial degree.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_01: toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_01: But thinking about another border representative,
• 30:33
  I think this is a good time to shift over some of the specific House races we
• 30:36
  want
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: to bring up.
• 30:37
  And we're going to start with the one that's really been making all the
• 30:39
  headlines.
• 30:39
  AndthatisthetheTonyGonzalesraceagainstBrandonHerrerainthe23rd
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_01: Congressional District,
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: which stretches from outside of El Paso over to around San Antonio.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: And Gonzales is obviously,
• 30:54
  it's been in the news been lurking in the news for a while that he that this
• 30:57
  former
• 30:57
  staffer of his had committed suicide,
• 31:00
  thatshethere'sallegationsthathe'dhadan
• 31:02
  affair with her,
• 31:03
  butreallyinthelastcoupleweeksitseemslikeatonofstuff
• 31:06
  has come out and I have to think it's it's pretty damaging to Gonzalezs's
• 31:10
  reelection
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: hopes.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah so credit to the San Antonio Express-News, who sort of broke
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: the story,
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: they were the first outlet to get sort of evidentiary,
• 31:21
  to get evidence that they had a screenshot of a text message initially in
• 31:26
  whichthe
• 31:28
  staffer who ended up killing herself was texting a coworker mentioning she
• 31:31
  hadan
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: affair with their boss.
• 31:33
  And then the lawyer for the widow of that staffer released text messages from
• 31:39
  the
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: ex-staffer's phone between Gonzales and the aide,
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: which were really damning,
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: very explicit.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, I mean, this story has really taken off in the last week or so.
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: You've had some
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: Some of the more conservative right wing members of the U.S.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: House,
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_00: some of whom we're already supporting as primary opponent,
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: Brandon Herrera,
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: say that Gonzales should resign.
• 32:02
  You've had a few members of the Texas delegation say that Gonzales should
• 32:06
  drop out of the race.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_00: Primary's next week, so we'll see.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_00: Last cycle, these two ran against each other.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: Herrera was a first-time candidate, went to a runoff.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_00: And as you can see here, Herrera only lost by less than 400 votes.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_00: So I think even without this, this was going to be a close race.
• 32:22
  And now with this looming over Gonzales,
• 32:24
  I think it's it's certainly going to be difficult.
• 32:27
  And it's I think it's you know,
• 32:28
  it's a district that's pretty well-drawn for Republicans.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: It would take a lot for a Republican to lose,
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: but it's an awkward situation,
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: certainly for Republican leadership,
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_00: who's back to Gonzales.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_00: particularly because Herrera is very far right,
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_00: is associated with some of these Freedom Caucus types,
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_00: and I think would definitely be,
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: to talk about the politics of it,
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_00: would be a much more difficult member to manage for leadership.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 32:53
  I've brought up on screen the 2024 primary and primary runoff results
• 32:59
  between
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: Gonzales and Herrera.
• 33:02
  And yeah,
• 33:03
  Gonzales finished below 50% in the primary,
• 33:06
  which wasn't a good sign.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: And then he narrowly, very narrowly,
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: one in the runoff.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: And it took a lot of help.
• 33:11
  He had a lot of outside help from from more establishment Republican types in
• 33:16
  that
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: runoff,
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of spending on his behalf.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now this time around,
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think a couple months ago,
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: we,
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: even when we chatted in December,
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: how endangered Gonzales was,
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think that there was expectation that it would be competitive again,
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: because Herrera had done well and Gonzales,
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: especially,
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: things like he had supported some some
• 33:35
  some gun safety legislation because Uvalde is in that district after the
• 33:38
  shooting
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: in Uvalde,
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: the school shooting in Uvalde,
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_01: has maybe,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_01: maybe opened up the door for Herrera.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: Who's, who's literally like a gun, a gun influencer online.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_01: But Gonzales had Trump's endorsement, which he didn't have the last time.
• 33:55
  And so I was kind of this seems to your point about sort of Republican
• 33:59
  leadership
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: having backed Gonzales maybe more clearly this time.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: This has put them in maybe a tough spot.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 34:07
  And I think you've definitely seen a wait and see approach from the speaker.
• 34:12
  I think a lot of people probably are more hesitant because the primary is
• 34:15
  literally
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_00: a week from yesterday and early voting had been ongoing.
• 34:18
  But I'll be curious to see right exactly what the result comes in on Tuesday.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then,
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 34:24
  we know that the matter has been referred to the ethics committee in the
• 34:26
  House.
• 34:26
  Iwouldassumeareportwillcomeoutatsomepointandjustsortofhowthishow
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_00: this snowballs from there.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 34:32
  my understanding is that the House Ethics Committee rules basically don't
• 34:35
  allowit
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: to release reports,
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_01: within 60 days of an election dealing with the members.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess if they go into a runoff, does that still qualify?
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: There's time.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_02: There would be like time at the beginning.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, all things considered.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that makes sense.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, it's almost three months away.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_01: So yes, there would be time.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you did have a runoff,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_01: which is possible,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: again,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: there are multiple candidates besides those two running again.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: Probably won't get a lot of the vote.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_01: Although one is Quico Canseco,
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: who is a former congressman in his own right,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: who's running,
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: though I don't think he's really run much of a campaign.
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think a Herrera internal had Canseco at maybe 4%.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_01: and it's worth noting that Herrera,
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_01: most recent Herrera internal,
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: did have him up 45%-21% over Gonzales,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: which is a pretty rough spot for an incumbent to be in.
• 35:35
  but you know it is possible to have a runoff anyway Gonzales may be now,
• 35:39
  Gonzales
• 35:39
  might be the most endangered incumbent on the ballot,
• 35:42
  ButIthinktomoveontosome
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: other possibilities, there's also Al Green in the new 18th
• 35:50
  Congressional District,
• 35:52
  isfacingnewlyelectedrepresentativeChristianMenefee
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: Menefee was elected to the old 18th in a special election
• 36:00
  that just took place or just finished off basically at the end of January.
• 36:04
  And Menefee now is turning around and running for the regular term in the new
• 36:09
  18th
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_01: against Green.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: And now Green made some news at the State of the Union,
• 36:13
  as he did actually at the previous State of the Union or the previous
• 36:16
  presidential
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_01: address in 2025 as well.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: But he was holding up a sign.
• 36:19
  I think this said,
• 36:20
  you know,
• 36:20
  "Blackpeoplearenotapes"inreferencetoa
• 36:25
  video on social media that President Trump retweeted that had images of
• 36:30
  Barack
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: Obama,
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: Michelle Obama as gorillas.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_01: And that got Green removed from the chamber.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: And I couldn't help,
• 36:42
  but obviously there's like a lot more going on with that situation than just
• 36:45
  the
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_01: electoral politics of it.
• 36:47
  But seeing as Menefee has released a number of polls showing him ahead of
• 36:51
  Green,
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_01: I wondered about this being
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: a reminder to voters back home that Green has been a very vocal,
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: vocal,
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_01: progressive member of the House.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: For sure.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Green's a recognizable guy.
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_00: He carries around his cane.
• 37:07
  If if you've seen a picture of him,
• 37:09
  you probably know who we're talking about.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: He's been in the House for 20 years.
• 37:13
  But this is basically his first competitive campaign since he actually
• 37:17
  unseatedan
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_00: incumbent in the 2004 election.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: And he really has not had any any difficulty since then.
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: and Menefee,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: by contrast,
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_00: has been running for almost a year for the old 18 and now the new 18.
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: He's got a very active campaign apparatus.
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's, you know, that's a muscle that's warm for him.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: And for Green, that's not a muscle he's had to flex in a while.
• 37:38
  So I was actually down in Houston before the special election in January
• 37:42
  talkingto
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: folks about this.
• 37:44
  And I think the other dynamic to remember here is that all around the country,
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 37:48
  we're seeing Democratic primaries where age and sort of generational
• 37:53
  changeare
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: factoring into people's decisions.
• 37:56
  Menefee's in his 30s,
• 37:57
  Greens in his 70s,
• 37:57
  but they're both incumbents,
• 38:00
  right?
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_00: But the sort of,
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_00: the extra dynamic here is that the last two occupants of this seat,
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: Congressional District 18,
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_00: both died in office.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_00: Sylvester Turner, the former mayor of Houston,
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: died just two months into his term, about a year ago.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_00: And then Sheila Jackson Lee,
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: who was the longtime representative for that seat,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: died in office in 2024.
• 38:18
  So this is a seat,
• 38:19
  and only about 25% of the nude version of the seat is the old one.
• 38:23
  But if you're in Houston,
• 38:25
  you know about this situation,
• 38:27
  if you follow politics,
• 38:28
  most likely.
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_00: And I think this is something that's on voters' minds,
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: from what I could tell when I was down there talking to folks.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: because that's the thing with the new district map,
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_01: the old ninth district,
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_01: which is Al Green's current seat,
• 38:41
  has been redrawn very dramatically into one of those new Republican leaning
• 38:44
  seats
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_01: that the GOP intends.
• 38:47
  And that's one of the ones that they're almost certainly going to capture in
• 38:50
  November.
• 38:52
  But nearly two thirds of Green's old 9th District ended up in the new 18th.
• 38:57
  And whereas only as you mentioned,
• 38:59
  only about a quarter of the current 18th is in the new 18th.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: And so in that sense,
• 39:03
  the voters who will be voting in this primary are more familiar with Green.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: But as you did say,
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: in terms of running ads,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: Menefee has been active,
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_01: politically campaigning for such a long time.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: And at the end of the day,
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of that's going to hit you in Harris County,
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: regardless of where you are,
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I would assume that that's another part of the dynamic here.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, for sure.
• 39:25
  Andthensortofthelastthingthereisthataprocryptogroupisnowspending
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_00: against green for Menefee as well.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_00: And that's sort of the first race they've waited on in Texas this cycle.
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, that's that's some air cover, too.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_01: So that's yeah.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that that.
• 39:44
  You get a little extra outside spending coming in and you might already be
• 39:48
  ahead
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: and that might be enough for Menefee to win.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_01: Now, again, one of these two is going to lose.
• 39:57
  So that's part of that group of 10 that I already mentioned will be on the outs.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: Possibly Gonzales might join them.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: That might be 11.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 40:06
  SPEAKER_01: another safe Democratic district we'll turn to,
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_01: but in the Dallas area,
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_01: we have Representative Julie Johnson,
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: and she is facing former Representative Colin Allred,
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: who represented much of the same turf,
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_01: but when he ran for the Senate in 2024,
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_01: Johnson won the open seat to succeed him.
• 40:23
  But now Allred dropped out of the Senate race and decided to run for what is
• 40:28
  more
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_01: or less his old seat,
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: but run against Johnson for this new version of their old seat,
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: if you will,
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_01: in the 33rd District.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: And I know there really hasn't been much polling of this race.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of times in House races and House primaries,
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_01: there's not necessarily a ton of polling.
• 40:43
  But the Allred campaign did have an internal back from mid-December that
• 40:47
  showed him well ahead.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I was curious sort of what the dynamics are looking like in this seat.
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_01: which I'm going to actually bring this up on the map here.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_01: The new 33rd, which is worth noting,
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_01: There was so many,
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: Marc Veasey,
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think was talked about as potentially running in this seat,
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_01: but then he decided to run for a different office,
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: but then dropped out of that race and is now just retiring.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_01: So part of the redistricting mess, if you will.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: And it really was a mess in DFW, in the Metroplex.
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, this race is definitely interesting.
• 41:20
  Allred put out that internal,
• 41:21
  but in December,
• 41:22
  right,
• 41:22
  that showed him up big.
• 41:24
  Certainly would imagine his name ID is much higher,
• 41:26
  just given that he ran statewide.
• 41:29
  This district is about a third of what was both Johnson and Allred's old
• 41:33
  district.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of them,
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: it's new voters,
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_00: but again,
• 41:37
  Allred'sbeenontheirballotbeforebecausehewastheirDemocraticSenate
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_00: candidate.
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand, Allred went up with a negative ad against Johnson.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see how that plays.
• 41:47
  ButIthinkthefactthathewentnegativeshowsitmightbecloserthanthat
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_00: initial poll might have suggested.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_00: This is a majority minority district.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_00: Allred is Black.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_00: Johnson is white.
• 42:00
  And so Johnson- Well,
• 42:01
  the largest group is,
• 42:02
  sorry to interrupt,
• 42:03
  the largest group is Latinos.
• 42:05
  SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_00: So it's a really interesting one.
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_00: And Johnson has a lot of support from the sort of
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_00: Democratic leadership.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_00: She got an endorsement from AOC, a bunch of groups up here in D.C.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: So this is an interesting one.
• 42:19
  And I really am not entirely sure how that will play out,
• 42:22
  but we'll know soon.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_01: and yeah,
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 42:27
  drawn to be a safely Democratic seat as part of the basically they turned,
• 42:32
  theRepublican
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_01: map drawers,
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_01: map makers turned Johnson's old 32nd,
• 42:37
  SPEAKER_01: which only is only part of that,
• 42:38
  SPEAKER_01: as you said,
• 42:39
  isinthisnew33rdintoamuchredderseatthatRepublicanswillverylikely
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: capture in,
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_01: in November.
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_01: Those are sort of the 32nd,
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: the new,
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: the new 9th and the new 32nd are sort of the,
• 42:51
  the two more or less sure things for Republicans on the on the map that they
• 42:55
  drew
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_01: in terms of the five that they want to take.
• 42:58
  The other three are all seats that Trump won by around 10 percentage points.
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: depending on the environment,
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_01: could not could maybe don't work out as well as Republicans had hoped,
• 43:08
  SPEAKER_01: at least in this cycle.
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_01: But thinking about one other one other wrinkle, I guess, is that Johnson
• 43:16
  uh is a member of the LGBTQ community and I know that that was a at least
• 43:21
  initially
• 43:21
  when Allred dropped down there were definitely some attacks from from
• 43:24
  groupsthat
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: support candidates who are, who are LGBTQ.
• 43:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 43:30
  SPEAKER_01: and so I was kind of curious if there had been any more on,
• 43:33
  SPEAKER_01: on that front,
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_01: in terms of, is a,
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: is a,
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_01: a thing that people are using against Allred.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there, those groups are all supporting Johnson for sure.
• 43:42
  Um,
• 43:42
  there was also,
• 43:42
  I think some sort of gender back and forth at the beginning.
• 43:45
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Johnson made a comment about,
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_00: women aren't just,
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_00: some,
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_00: something to the effect of,
• 43:51
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 43:52
  SPEAKER_00: "women aren't seat warmers" basically type thing.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah,
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 43:56
  this has definitely gotten a bit personal and it'll be interesting to see how
• 44:01
  it
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_00: goes out.
• 44:03
  SPEAKER_01: And actually,
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_01: as a point of comparison,
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_01: even though we've moved on to this race,
• 44:08
  SPEAKER_01: I was curious if there was any of that
• 44:10
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of feeling in the 18th District race between Green and Menefee,
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_01: sort of the personal element of it.
• 44:18
  Cause it does feel like the Johnson-Allred contest has gotten,
• 44:21
  gotten nasty.
• 44:22
  And obviously Herrera and Gonzales were nasty in 2024 and it was already
• 44:26
  pretty
• 44:27
  SPEAKER_01: ugly just before even all this other stuff was sort of came to light.
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that one, not so much.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_00: No, I don't think it's been as personal between Greene and Menefee.
• 44:36
  They've sort of just focused on their own lands and both sort of blamed
• 44:40
  Republicans
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_00: for redrawing and being in this position.
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's not been as sort of mudslinging back and forth.
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_01: Got it.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_01: Just, we're gonna go over one more here.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_01: There are other races of note.
• 44:55
  I plan on having a Texas primary preview in our next newsletter on Monday,
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_01: where I will go into,
• 45:01
  SPEAKER_01: try to go into,
• 45:03
  SPEAKER_01: at least to some extent,
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_01: all the races of interest.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_01: But the last one I wanted to mention here is another incumbent.
• 45:08
  SPEAKER_01: And this one is down back in the Houston area.
• 45:12
  SPEAKER_01: And this is Dan Crenshaw,
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_01: who people may know,
• 45:17
  SPEAKER_01: military veteran,
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_01: has been in the House for a few years now,
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_01: wears an eyepatch,
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_01: kind of well-known figure.
• 45:26
  But he has a challenger from the right in State Representative Steve Toth.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_01: Toth?
• 45:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think I'm pronouncing that correctly.
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_01: And Toth just got an endorsement from Senator Ted Cruz.
• 45:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 45:38
  And I think there is some thought that he could end up defeating Crenshaw at
• 45:43
  the end of the day.
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, this is definitely a competitive race.
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_00: I believe there's only two other candidates in the race,
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_00: both receiving small amounts of support.
• 45:50
  So certainly a chance that this could be ended in the primary one way or the
• 45:53
  other.
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: Toth,
• 45:55
  one of the most right-wing conservative members of the state house has sort
• 45:59
  of,
• 45:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 45:59
  he's gone and talked about this race with Tucker Carlson and some local sort
• 46:03
  of
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_00: Houston conservative radio czars who have been supporting him.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_00: On the other hand,
• 46:07
  Crenshaw has tried to attack Toth over some votes he's taken in the Texas
• 46:12
  Houseon
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_00: some hot button issues,
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_00: both in the area,
• 46:15
  SPEAKER_00: especially flooding.
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is an area that's had a lot of issues with flooding,
• 46:19
  SPEAKER_00: especially with Hurricane Harvey in 2017,
• 46:21
  SPEAKER_00: which people remember,
• 46:23
  SPEAKER_00: as well as property taxes,
• 46:24
  SPEAKER_00: which is just a hot issue around the state,
• 46:27
  SPEAKER_00: but especially among Republicans right now.
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to be an interesting one.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_00: Toth,
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_00: if people remember,
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_00: 10 years ago,
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_00: launched a primary against Kevin Brady,
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_00: the longtime representative from Texas's 8th District,
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_00: former Ways and Means chair.
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_00: And Brady did win outright in the primary,
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_00: but it was with his lowest percentage since his first race,
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_00: I believe,
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_00: at 53%.
• 46:51
  So Toth has a history of running competitive,
• 46:54
  but he wasn't able to do it in 2016.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_00: So
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how it plays out this time.
• 46:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think the Cruz endorsement yesterday, definitely a big news point here.
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: so it does feel like,
• 47:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 47:03
  SPEAKER_01: I know Crenshaw has also come under some scrutiny for potentially some
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_01: alcohol-related behavior on some international trips.
• 47:15
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just,
• 47:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 47:16
  SPEAKER_01: has become a figure,
• 47:19
  SPEAKER_01: besides maybe some personal conduct things that have come up,
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_01: it's also,
• 47:23
  SPEAKER_01: it seems like maybe...
• 47:25
  SPEAKER_01: the MAGA universe has cooled on him a bit?
• 47:29
  I think definitely the people who are really into more isolationist foreign
• 47:33
  policy
• 47:34
  SPEAKER_00: feel like,
• 47:35
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 47:35
  SPEAKER_00: he's someone who was in the military,
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_00: supports funding for Ukraine,
• 47:39
  SPEAKER_00: for example.
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think some of the most ardent isolationist,
• 47:45
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 47:46
  SPEAKER_00: people in that wing of the party,
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: certainly he's been a figure that they've been upset with for a while.
• 47:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and this is a safely Republican seat.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_01: So the winner of the GOP nomination will win in November.
• 47:59
  This isn't one that's going to come on the board as a competitive general
• 48:03
  election
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_01: contest,
• 48:04
  SPEAKER_01: even if Toth ends up maybe being a weaker general election candidate.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_01: If he wins, TBD, obviously.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 48:10
  SPEAKER_01: Hey,
• 48:10
  SPEAKER_01: there's a ton more,
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_01: and we're not going to touch on any more of it in this episode,
• 48:16
  butIwillsaythatpeopleshouldgocheckoutyourwritingandthatofyour
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_01: colleagues over at The Texas Tribune.
• 48:22
  I don't know if you want to say anything about the Texas Tribune for a minute.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Texas Tribune.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_00: We are a statewide, nonpartisan, nonprofit.
• 48:30
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely check us out.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_00: We've got a lot of great politics coverage.
• 48:34
  We'll have it through the primary,
• 48:36
  through the runoff,
• 48:36
  and through the general.
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's, I think, texastribune.org, if I'm mistaken.
• 48:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_01: And definitely check that out.
• 48:44
  SPEAKER_01: They have tons of good articles.
• 48:46
  I spent a fair amount of time prepping,
• 48:49
  reading over things there for this podcast.
• 48:51
  And we'll certainly be linking to them a fair amount in my Texas primary
• 48:54
  preview.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, this has been great.
• 48:59
  Gabby Birenbaum,
• 49:00
  thank you so much for joining me on this podcast to talk about Texas.
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_01: It is always an interesting state,
• 49:07
  but obviously with the redistricting and having a potentially competitive
• 49:10
  general
• 49:10
  election for the Senate and two highly competitive primaries for the
• 49:14
  Senate,
• 49:15
  SPEAKER_01: it's maybe even more interesting than usual.
• 49:18
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be fun.
• 49:20
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you so much for having me.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's been great.
• 49:22
  And so I'm Geoffrey Skelley,
• 49:24
  again,
• 49:24
  the host here at the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 49:27
  Thank you so much for listening and make sure to check out my Texas primary
• 49:30
  preview on Monday.
• 49:32
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you again, Gabby.
• 49:33
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much.
• 49:34
  SPEAKER_00: I really appreciate it.
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 49:36
  SPEAKER_01: Take care.