Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Monday Night Football? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/7/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Monday Night Football? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/7/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby Look
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: hold on Let me pull you out That fell apart
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: by its heart But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: Happy Labor Day. Monday, September 7th. I'll be going to
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: a cookout in a bit. Hopefully people are doing something
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: fun with their day off. We're not having fun here
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: on this show. The weekend was terrible. I guess if
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: this is still the weekend, we can redeem it with
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: the two baseball plays I'm going to have today. Didn't
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: work out yesterday. Baltimore and Red Sox, what can you do, man?
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Red Sox had a three-run home run,
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: and then no more runs were scored after that. It
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: was 1-0 Orioles in the first inning, and then Peyton
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: Tolley completely settled down. He was awesome in the game yesterday,
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: and He was racking up a ton of strikeouts, but
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: they don't want to overwork the guy, so they only
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: had him go six innings. But he's had a couple
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: of starts where he could have gone for the strikeout record,
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: but they had to take him out, man. And yeah,
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: Eli White hit a three-run home run for the Red Sox.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's not something you expect, really. And that
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: was the entirety of the scoring in the game. Nobody
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: scored after the second inning or whatever. Whatever, man. And
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: then the Toronto-Kansas City over didn't hit either. Toronto had
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: a lot of hits. They stranded a lot of base runners.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, that game had opportunities to go over, and
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: it didn't happen. It looked really good early because it
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: was 5-0 Kansas City in, like, the third inning. So
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: that was looking quite good at that time. And then, yeah,
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Dobnok just continues to not give up runs. I just
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: don't get it, man. The guy sucks, so whatever. Let's
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: do this. We need to find some winners here today, man.
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: We have afternoon, a lot of afternoon baseball today. Atlanta
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: and Philadelphia is the first game up. This is actually
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: a wraparound series. This is a four-game series that goes
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: Friday to Monday. Atlanta has won two of the three.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: Pretty much every game in the series has been pretty close.
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: Pretty competitive. It's a big series. It's a big divisional series.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia trying to maintain at least a wild card spot,
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: but trying to gain some ground on Atlanta for the
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: division here. Atlanta's probably going to hang on to the division,
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: especially after, at worst, splitting this series. But it's a
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: big game for both teams, maybe a little bit bigger
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: for Philly. Philly does have the better pitcher on the
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: mound in this game. Atlanta has the better bullpen. Atlanta
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: used three guys out of the bullpen. Philly used three
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: as well yesterday. Atlanta, number three, based on whip, actually
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: tied with the Yankees for number two in bullpen whip
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: at this point. Yeah, I mean, they're top three or
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: four bullpens, no doubt about that. Philadelphia is number 18,
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: so the Braves have the edge there. Braves are also
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the better offense. They're number 11, tied with Miami, though.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: And Philly is number 19. Atlanta's got Grant Holmes going here.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: He's mediocre, 3.62 ERA, but a 1.31 whip tells you
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: his ERA should be higher than that. He's been good
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: on the road, though. He's been better on the road
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: this year, 2.66 road ERA with a low batting average
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: against two below 200. I don't know what happened to
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: him in his last game, if there was a rain
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: delay going on in there or something. He only threw
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: three innings against Washington, but he literally put nobody on base,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: at least not in any earned capacity. No hits, no walks.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: So he was good in that brief outing there. He's
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: been pitching pretty well over the last month. He's had
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: four shutout appearances, and all the other ones were six-inning shutouts. So, yeah,
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: he's pitching pretty well right now, although when he doesn't
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: pitch well, he gets kind of blown up. So that's
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: not exactly great. But he also has a low strikeout
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: rate recently and somewhat high of a walk rate. Kind
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: of the same across the whole season. Hit rate is
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: pretty low, but the walk rate's too high. The strikeout
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: rate's low. Strikeout walk ratio's pretty ugly at 1.9. That's
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: not good. Strikeout per nine is way lower than what
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: he posted the last two years. It's 7.1. So his
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is down this year. Against Philly, he's good, though.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: In 65 at-bats, 215 average allowed, 695 OPS, 15-9 strikeout
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So Holmes, he's in the better of his
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: home road splits. He's got a good matchup here. And
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: he's going up against Jesus Lizardo, who's been really good
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: for the last couple months. 3.02 ERA on the season, 1.12 whip.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: He's not as good at home, 4.52 home ERA, however.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: He's been better at home over the last two months.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: He has not had a bad home start for quite
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: a while now. So I think we can kind of
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: not completely throw that out, but his splits are not
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: as extreme recently as what that makes it look like.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: So he's been much better recently. He's allowed two reviewer-earned
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: runs in every start going back to the end of
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: July when he actually had a bad road start there.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: Lizardo against Atlanta, huge sample size, 176 at-bats and good
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: numbers for him. 233 average allowed, 672 OPS, 52 to
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: 13 strikeout walk ratio. That's all pretty good here. So
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: I think the under is the way to play this
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: game here. Looks like 62% of the cash and tickets
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: both on the over here, so slightly public over. The
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: total's at eight, so it's in nowheresville there. I think
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: that's how I would play it if I was going
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: to play this game. I would play the under. It was...
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: in consideration for me. I just don't know how much
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: I want to really trust Holmes in general. And Luzardo
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: is technically, I don't know. I still love his home
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: road splits, but I think we can kind of ignore
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: that at this point, but still, yeah, it doesn't make
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: the cut for me, but yeah, the under, I think
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: it's a decent play in that one. 72% of tickets,
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: 75% of the cash on Philly at about minus one 70.
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: I don't have, Too many thoughts on that. I mean,
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: usually if you like the under, usually like the underdog
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: to kind of hang around in that game, Holmes might
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: be able to kind of battle here. So I don't
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: have a great feel for that, although Philly should be
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: the somewhat more desperate team and Lizardo is the better
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher. If you take Philly, you should do it
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: in the first five, though, because Atlanta has the better bullpen.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: So that's what I'll say about that. Maybe... As far
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: as the side, maybe that is the approach is to
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: lean Philly first five, but I think the way better
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: way to play that game is to take the under.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: Mets and Miami. Miami is staying at home. They did
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: just beat the Cubs yesterday, so I was right about that.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: I'm pissed because I had a couple of plays that
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: I was right about. Well, not plays, but leans that
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: I was right about. I didn't like the pitching matchup
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: in that one, though, but it would have been all
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: about the situation. The Cubs were on the verge of
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: a sweep. Miami, one of those sweep-avoiding home teams, and
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: we picked the wrong one. And the Cubs had this
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: big series against Milwaukee coming up, so that was a
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: good spot, at least, to play Miami. And I'm even
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: more pissed because I almost went with the under in Anaheim-Pittsburgh,
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: and it was a complete under. It was a 1-0 game.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: Both starting pitchers were awesome, as far as I could
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: tell in the game, so I'm pissed about that because
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: that one was very close to making the cut for me.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: And we would have lost less money if that was
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: on the card, so I'm pissed. But we have Mets-Miami here.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: Miami could be in a little bit of a letdown, perhaps,
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: off beating the Cubs, and maybe they won't really pay
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: that much attention to the Mets here, even though this
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: is a divisional series. Mets have been playing decent baseball here.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: Mets just beat the Giants yesterday to win that series.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Now they're starting a road trip, which is usually a
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: focus spot, staying in the same time zone, whatever. Miami
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: may be more motivated, though, just because they, I guess,
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: I think they're still not technically eliminated from the playoffs.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: And they do have the more established starting pitcher on
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: the mound here. Miami does. Miami used a bunch of
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. They used, well, four. But it looks
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: like some heavy recent usage there. Mets a little bit
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: less than that. Mets used four, but less recent usage.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: Mets are the better bullpen. They're number six. Miami's number nine.
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: But I think there might be a little bit bigger
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: of a gap between these two bullpens than what that
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: would suggest. Miami's the better offense. They're number 11. Tied
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: with the Braves. Probably not that good, but the Mets
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: are number 26th. Mets are going with Jonah Tong, who
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: is a young pitcher who hasn't done much in the
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: major so far. He pitched last year. He made five
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: starts last year, and things did not go well. He
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: had a good strikeout rate. He does have strikeout stuff,
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: which is a good sign, but he was really wild.
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: He walked too many guys last year. And his hit
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: rate also was bad, so he was also too hittable
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: last year. So he's got some issues. He might eventually
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: be good. I don't know if I'd really want to
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: trust him yet. This year he's got a 3.6 ERA. 1.5
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: whip is not good, though, and he has a 5.68
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: road ERA, which is not particularly good. That pretty much
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: all came in his most recent appearance in the majors,
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: which was way back in June. He pitched in Seattle,
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: and he did not do well. And it was a
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly park, so that's not a great sign there. He
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: was okay in his other two outings, but he hasn't
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: gone deep in any of these. So if he's going
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: to start, he's probably not going that deep here. He's
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: probably going to give you about three innings in this game,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: I would imagine. But he's been in the minors for
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: a while now working on his stuff, so maybe he
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: is ramping up. Maybe they will try to let him
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: go deeper. I'm really not sure what they're going to
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: have him do here. I think if you're going to
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: play this game, You might just not want to even
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: pick a Mets starter here because they might put an
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: opener in front of them. Like, who knows what they're
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: going to do here. But you could pick Perez must
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: start for Miami because I think he is definitely going
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: to start here. That would be Uri Perez. Oh, right,
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: and Tong has faced Miami before briefly. Hang on, let
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: me show that. Miami has 15 at-bats against them, and
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: Tong actually had the upper hand against them. They only
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: have one extra base hit. a double from Lopez, and
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: in fact, their only two hits against them are both
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: from Lopez. So nobody else in this lineup has had
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: a hit against them. They have a 133 average, 388 OPS,
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: 3-1 strikeout walk ratio. So Tong did pitch well against
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: Miami specifically when he did face them. Yuri Perez is
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: on the other side here from Miami. He's good, 3.72 ERA, 1.11 whip,
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: good season from him. He's been particularly good at home. 2.81
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: home ERA. Wasn't good in his last two road starts,
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: but he isn't as good on the road, and maybe
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: he'll be better back at home after facing Washington and
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: then having to pitch in a hitter-friendly Kansas City park.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: He'll probably be happy to be back at home where
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: it's more pitcher-friendly, and he does pitch better. He's got
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: a low hit rate on the season. His walk rate
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: is pretty high, though. That's not good, and his strikeout
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: rate is also high, so that is at least good. 2.5
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is not great, though. Just way too
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: many walks, and it's down from what he did the
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: last couple years, which is not great, really. Strikeout per
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: nine is pretty high, 9.6. Against the Mets, he's been good,
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: and 54 at-bats, 185 average allowed, 637 OPS, 16-6 strikeout
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. I think the under is maybe in consideration
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: in this game, too, although the money looks like it
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: is kind of on the over. 70% of tickets, 87%
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over. The total's low. It's
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: at 7.5. It's low for a reason. Perez has the
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: good matchup numbers here. Tong in the brief appearances that
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: he did have against Miami was actually good against them,
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: and they're still somewhat unfamiliar with him. So the under
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: makes more sense to me than anything else. The money's
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: coming in on the Mets here. I don't know if
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: I would agree with that. I think I would prefer
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: Perez here. He's the more established pitcher. Minus 120 is
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: about the price on Miami here. Plus Miami might be
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: a little bit extra motivated if they still think they
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: can make the playoffs. But 66% of tickets on Miami,
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: 66% of the cash on the Mets. Some evil percentages there,
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: but the money is taking the Mets in that one.
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: And I would say if you're going to take Miami,
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: maybe consider first five, although you might have to pay
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: a little bit more for it because the Mets probably
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: have the bullpen advantage here. But those are my thoughts
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: on it. I think I would prefer the under on
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: that one, but I like the under in the Atlanta-Philadelphia
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: game more than that. This next game is a play
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: for me. And this is on not an under. We're
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: going to take over in Anaheim-Boston, even though Red Sox
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: are returning home from the road, but it was only
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: a single series road trip to Baltimore, so it shouldn't
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: be that bad for them. I do like to fade
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: teams returning home from road trips, And the Red Sox
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: are in that spot, so it could maybe be a
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: fade spot. But they were only away for one series,
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: like I said. Not far from home. So I don't
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: really care about that. But they did sweep the Orioles
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: on that road trip. And now they're coming back home
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: from that. The Red Sox in pretty solid positioning to
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: get at least a wild card spot here, obviously. But
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: they're only one and a half games back of the
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: Yankees at this point. Because the Yankees lost again yesterday.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: So the Red Sox might be thinking bigger here. However...
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Do you really think they're going to have their eyes
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: really set on Anaheim here? I don't really think so,
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: and the pitching setup is bad for the Red Sox here,
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: although I think it's kind of bad for both pitchers,
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: for both teams, I should say. Anaheim is coming in
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: from Pittsburgh, where they got shut out twice in the
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh series, and they put up runs in one of
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: the games, the one that they actually won. I think
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: Anaheim might be able to score more here. I mean,
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: this is an afternoon game at Fenway. It's a pitcher-friendly park.
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: I know it is cool up here, though. I'm in
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: Boston right now, though it will be 73 at game time.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: It was down in the 50s last night, but it
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: will be at least in the 70s for this game,
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: so that's not too bad. We want it to be
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: warmer for an over, typically, but this is really about
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: the pitching. I do not like the starting pitching here,
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: and I don't like Anaheim's bullpen. The Red Sox bullpen
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: is good. They used three guys yesterday, but they did
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: use Chapman. They do have a tendency to overuse them,
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: but I don't know if they'll use them in this game. Whoops,
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: I didn't mean to pick Baltimore here. Anaheim didn't use anybody.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: So if that's accurate, I think Urania just basically went
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: the whole game for them yesterday, which would have been
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: eight innings, I guess, because Pittsburgh probably didn't have to
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: bat in the ninth. So Anaheim's bullpen is very rested here,
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: even though they stink as far as their bullpen ERA
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: is concerned or whatever. Yeah, Anaheim's 23rd, excuse me, and
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: bullpen whip, excuse me, but their ERA is bad as well.
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: My mind is not working right now. Red Sox are
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: the number one bullpen and whip. They're number two in
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: ERA behind the Yankees. Red Sox are number eight offensively,
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: so they've been good on offense for a while now.
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is not. Anaheim's dead last, 30th. And yes, I'm
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: still playing the over here, and it's because of the
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup. Grayson Rodriguez is pitching for Anaheim. Not had
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: a good season. Speaking of Baltimore, he used to be
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: on Baltimore, and... He looked like he was going to
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: be good, at least decent for Baltimore. An injury totally
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: derailed his career. He's trying to make a comeback now.
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a 6.03 ERA, 1.52 whip. He's been better
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: on the road, though. Way better, actually. 3.9 road ERA.
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: So why do I want to fade him here by
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: way of the over? And also, he's been pitching better recently.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: His last three outings have been good at Houston and
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: then at home against Cleveland. And at home against the Yankees,
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: he gave up some runs recently. but he had a
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: 7-2 strikeout walk ratio in that one in six innings,
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: so I don't really think that was that bad of
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: a start. But he threw over 100 pitches in that one.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: That's the first time he did that this year, and
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: that's the first time he's done that in a major
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: league game since two years ago, so that might not
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: be great that he's coming in and maybe being a
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: little bit overworked here. Yeah, he's made a couple of
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: good starts in a row here basically, but I think
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: he might fall back a little bit here. Because the
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have seen a bit of him. They've been
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: able to hit him. It's only five guys that have
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: faced him. But they have 23 at-bats against him. They
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: have a. 304 average and. 870 OPS against him. 7-0
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, though. Although, yes, pretty much all the
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: damage is William Abreu and Jaron Duran, who cut his hair,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: by the way. I don't know if I like the
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: Duran short hair. He's done it before, but I kind
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: of prefer the long hair, man. Anyway. I don't really
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: trust G-Rod here, and I certainly don't trust Brian Baio,
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: who is going to be a starter again for the
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: Red Sox here, I guess. Although what I will say is,
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: if you're going to play this game, you know, I
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: would say... Play it action on the Red Sox side.
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: Maybe pick G-Rod must start. Don't pick a starter for
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox because they might put an opener in
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: front of Baio because that's been the thing, right? Whenever
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: Baio starts, as a starting pitcher this year, Baio's ERA
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: is above 10. But as a relief pitcher, his ERA
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: is in the ones. And that's why they started putting
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: an opener in front of him because it's some mental thing.
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: He has the yips. He pitches way better when he's
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: a relief pitcher. However... His last couple outings as a
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: relief pitcher, he was awful. So I don't trust Baio
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: at all. I just don't think he's a good pitcher.
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: I think that was just kind of a fluky thing
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: that happened. He's got a 5.07 ERA, 1.46 whip. Obviously,
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: those are not good numbers. Yeah, he's slightly better at home, whatever, 4.34.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: Home ERA, not great. Last two outings, which were not starts,
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: he was awful against the Yankees and against Seattle. Very,
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: very bad. Putting him back in a starting role where
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: he tends to really, really suck. Assuming he does start here,
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: that's not going to go well. And Anaheim has beat
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: him up. They have 59 at-bats against him, 339 average,
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: 916 OPS. 13-5 strikeout walk ratio, so I do not
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: trust Bayo here at all. The money is actually coming
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: in on the... Anaheim side here. I mean, the Red
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: Sox are favored at about minus 170 here, down from
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: minus 180. Should Bayo really be a favorite like that? No,
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: I would say no. And the Red Sox have 90%
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: of tickets, only 79% of the cash on them. But
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: instead of trying to figure out the side here, although
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: if you really wanted the side, I would say play
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: Anaheim in the first five only because their bullpen is
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: still worse than the Red Sox. But we're playing the
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: over here. It's mostly at eight and a half, but
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: there's not much of a difference between eight and eight
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: and a half. So I think either way is fine.
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: 78% of the tickets and 91% of the cash on
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: the over. I think the money is agreeing with this.
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: I found the over eight. It looks like DK has
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: a really good number on this. It's around what I'm
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: showing here. The numbers were kind of all over the
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: place when I looked this morning. It was all eight,
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: eight and a half, but there were just various amounts
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: of juice on each one. I saw like eight and
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: a half at even money out there too, but whatever.
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: We're going over in that game. All right. Arizona, Kansas City.
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: The AI pick yesterday with Kansas City first five, that one,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: but the Blue Jays couldn't capitalize on any of their
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: base runners. They could not beat Dobnok, and they lost.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Fuck that guy, dude. Dobnok, seriously. He actually did pitch well,
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: even though, yeah, I mean, he didn't walk anybody, and
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: that kind of hurt us. Arrighetti was terrible, and that's
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: what we needed, man. We needed both pitchers to do terrible,
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: and Dobnok did not, and that was the thing, although
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: still we had 15 hits in that game, and only
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: seven runs came home So Toronto definitely, uh, failed to
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: do their part. Uh, as far as they just stranded
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: a bunch of base runners, like I said, anyway, Arizona's
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: playing Kansas city now. So Kansas city is coming up,
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: beating Toronto yesterday. Arizona's coming in off a couple of
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: big wins over Houston. Arizona's going to have more motivation
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: here because they're trying to make the playoffs. Kansas city
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: is not. However, Arizona has not announced a starter here. Um,
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: I think they moved Erod up because I went five
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: games ago for Arizona. It was Erod pitching, and he
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: pitched yesterday, I'm pretty sure. So I don't know what
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: Arizona's doing here. I have no idea who's going to
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: be their starter in this game. So Kansas City might
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: be worth a look in this game just because we
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: know who their starter is, and he's fairly solid. Kansas
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: City used four relief pitchers yesterday. I would not want
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: to deal with their bullpen. Their bullpen's awful. Arizona also
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: used four, Arizona's number five in bullpen, although I still
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: don't like their ERA being above four, but Kansas City's
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: a terrible bullpen, they're ranked dead last, we all know
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: what I always say, they're not as bad as the A's,
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: but they're the second worst bullpen, Arizona offensively is worse
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: right now, they're number 22 tied with Baltimore, although Baltimore
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: just got knocked down because they had to face the
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, and Red Sox pitching tends to knock offenses down,
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: although that's not what I'm banking on in the game today.
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have bad pitching in the next two games, man.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: They really need Garrett Crochet back or something. And as
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: far as, what are we talking about? Oh, Kansas City.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Their offense is number 15, and they are better at home.
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: We don't know who's pitching for Arizona, but Noah Cameron
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Kansas City. He's been pretty good for
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: the last couple months. Turned his season completely around. He
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: was pretty good last year. 4.08 ERA, a 1.22 whip
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: for him. Not bad. He's not as good at home, though. 4.95
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: home ERA. He struggles in this new Kauffman Stadium with
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: the walls moved in. Wasn't great last time out here
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: at home against Miami, although he did have seven strikeouts
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: and only one walk. Gave up four runs in five innings, though.
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: He was pitching pretty well other than that, though. He
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: had a really good month of August here, so he's
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: not that bad. He was decent in July, too, so
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: he definitely turned his season around for the most part.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: He does have a pretty low hit rate here. His
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: walk rate is mediocre, I would say, and his strikeout
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: rate is kind of low. Cameron, 2.8 strikeout walk ratio.
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's not great, but it's fine-ish. Eight strikeout
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: per nine is all right. Numbers against Arizona, they've barely
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: seen him. Only Arenado and Newt Barr have ever seen him.
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: They're one for ten off, and the only hit is
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: a single from Newt Barr, and they have one strikeout,
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: no walks. So 100 average, 200 OPS there. I'm going
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: to link Kansas City first five here. I mean, even
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: though Cameron's not good at home, really, I don't want
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: to really trust it, but he's better than whatever Arizona
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: is going to put out there, I would say. So
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: that's probably the lean here. Let me see. Where's Casey? Yeah,
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: Kansas City has 52% of tickets, 91% of the cash
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: on them. So the money seems to be indicating on
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. A lot of books don't have a number
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: out on it right now, but it looks like they're
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: going to be a little bit of an underdrive. It
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: looks like Law is the starter for Arizona now, whoever
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: the hell that is. D.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Law.
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Not Ty Law. New England Patriots player. Hold on. Who
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: is D. Law? Can we even find him in here? No,
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: I see Jordan Lawler. Derek Law, I just saw him.
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: Where was he? Come on. There he is, Derek Law.
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: He's going to be the pitcher here. Looks like he's
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: a relief pitcher. He's 35 years old. Yeah, so he's
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: going to be an opener. He's barely pitched this year.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: He does have good numbers this year, but he's a
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: relief pitcher. His career numbers, I don't know, his whip
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: is pretty bad in his career, so I don't trust
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: what Arizona's doing. So, yeah, I would say I think
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: that's the right approach is to take KC in the
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: first five there. I'm not going to make that a play.
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: And I'm not exactly sure what number you're going to
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: get on that. They'll probably have to be a favorite
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: in the first five, though. But I think that's the
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: way to go is take Kansas City first five, avoid
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: their bullpen. And the money's coming in on the over
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: nine in that game, too. I mean, I probably wouldn't
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: disagree with that. Hold on. What happened to my tabs here, man?
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: What?
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: Oh, I think it was because I did the search
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: in the window that I had opened. Yeah, there we go.
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: I wanted the schedule back.
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: But anyway, yeah, the over makes some sense in that game, too.
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, you get Kansas City's bullpen behind you. Arizona
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: going with a bullpen game, I'm assuming won't work out
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: too well, so that's what I think in that game.
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: You could also take Kansas City team total over or
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: something like that if you wanted to, but I don't know.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think Kansas City first five is the
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: preference there. Oh, and I skipped Cleveland-Baltimore, so hang on.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: I've got to go back to that. But by the way,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: I did also forget to go over the overview of
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: G-Rod and Bayo here. G-Rod has a high hit rate
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: on the season. This is for the Anaheim and Red
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: Sox game. I keep thinking Rodriguez is on Baltimore. His
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: hit rate's not great. His strikeout rate is okay. He's
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, so that's lower overall.
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: than what he was posting in his career before his injury,
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: so he's still struggling a bit. 8.3 strikeout per nine
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: is also dropped from what he used to do. And
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: Brian Baio, I mean, I don't even want to see
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: how bad these numbers are. Yeah, he's got a 2.1
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. That's pretty bad. I mean, I don't
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: want anything to do with that. And a 6.5 strikeout
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: per nine. This guy sucks, dude. He doesn't even strike
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: people out. I mean, give me a break. He's a
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: ground ball pitcher, though, so that's what he does, but whatever.
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: Cleveland and Baltimore, I skipped over it, but I'm going
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: back to it right now. Baltimore's staying at home. They've
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: lost six games in a row. So they might show
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: up here, man. I mean, they're still not eliminated from
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: the wildcard race, technically. And Cleveland is atop the wildcard
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: race right now. Or maybe they might be tied, actually,
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: with Toronto somewhere around there. No, I think Cleveland's one
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: game ahead of Toronto. Cleveland got the win yesterday against
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: the Tigers. So Cleveland could be in a letdown spot here.
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: Big series win against the Tigers, winning three out of four.
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: Kind of effectively eliminating the Tigers, I would say, from
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: the wildcard race. And Cleveland maintaining their position atop the
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: wildcard race. And they're still not out of the division either.
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: So big series for Cleveland. maybe they're going to be
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: in a little bit of a letdown here. Baltimore could
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: be in a bounce back here and looking at the
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: starting pitching on the service, it does look like Baltimore
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: has the better starter on the mound here. So Baltimore
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: is worth considering. I would say, but when I dug
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: into the matchup numbers and I really didn't like them.
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: So that's, what's keeping me off of this game. But
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: I think Baltimore has the better situation here, maybe more
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: desperation mode for them. And I think they generally do
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: have the better starting pitcher here. Um, Bullpen-wise, I think
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: it's close between the two teams. Cleveland used three guys yesterday.
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: Baltimore used four. Cleveland is ranked 13th. They've been pretty
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: good recently out of the bullpen, actually, so they are
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: probably better than Baltimore. Even though Baltimore's number 11, Baltimore's
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: ERA is a little bit higher. So Cleveland probably the
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: slightly better bullpen there, but they're both decent. Baltimore number
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: 22 offensively, tied with Arizona. Cleveland 28th, tied with Seattle.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: So neither of these offenses are very good. Baltimore is
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: the better of the two offenses, though. Cleveland going with
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: Joey Cantillo here. 3.81 ERA, fine, but his 1.48 whip
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: is pretty bad. He's basically the same home and away,
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: although his road opponent batting average is a little bit worse.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: So I think you could say he is a little
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: bit worse on the road. Didn't really pitch too well
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: last time out against Toronto. He was very hittable in
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: that game. Although the fielding didn't help him. Like a
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: lot of the runs that came home were unearned in
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: that game. And he was pitching pretty well for the
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: most part throughout August, except the fact that he was
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: walking a ton of guys. That's his problem, man. You
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: cannot walk this many guys. His hit rate is okay.
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is good, but his walk rate is
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: a huge issue, and it's knocked his strikeout walk ratio
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: all the way down to 2.1. You can't do that, man,
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: especially when you have a a 9.6 strikeout per nine.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: He's just walking way too many guys, even though he
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: has good strikeout stuff. He's been good against Baltimore. It's
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: a small sample, 27 at-bats, but the majority of their
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: batters have faced him. Only Jackson Holiday has an extra
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: base hit against him, one double in there. 5-6 strikeout
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, though not a good ratio. Again, Cantillo with
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: all the walks, man. But he's held him to a
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: 185 average of 556 OPS, so he does pitch well
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: against Baltimore in general. Trevor Rogers is pitching for Baltimore.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: He is the better pitcher in general. 4.3 ERA makes
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: it not look that way, but his whip is way
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: better at 1.23. Even though that's not great, it's a
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: lot better than Cantillo, so he is... the somewhat better
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: pitcher here. He is slightly better at home, although his
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: numbers are pretty close home and away. He's coming off
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: an 11 strikeout, two-run effort, 62 thirds innings, no walks
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: in Colorado. Didn't give up any home runs. That's a
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: pretty good sign. He pitched really well in Coors Field there.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: Wasn't good in St. Louis before that, which is weird, though,
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: because that's a pitcher-friendly ballpark there. I don't know, but
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: for the most part, he was pitching pretty well, I
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: would say, in the month of... august prior to that
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: he gave up uh three or two on runs and
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: all the other starts he had a really good command
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: ratio in that month uh so after he started out
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: the season really rocky he was really good for like
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: july and august uh he's got a hit rate that's
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: a little bit too high still though but his walk
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: rate's pretty good his strikeout rate is fine uh he's
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: got a 3.6 strikeout walk ratio because he does not
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: walk many guys and his strikeout per nine 8.2 not
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: spectacular but fine Numbers against Cleveland, though, not very good.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: 39 at-bats, 256 average allowed, 868 OPS is kind of
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: a problem. Jose Ramirez does a lot of the damage, though.
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: He's got two of the three home runs here, the
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: other one being Fry. 11-6 strikeout walk ratio overall there
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: for Rodgers against Cleveland. So I don't want to do it,
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: but a lot of the signs do point to Baltimore here.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: They're around a minus-120 favorite, down from minus-126. They got
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: 53% of tickets, 74% of the cash on them. So
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: it does look like the money is coming in on Baltimore.
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: And like I said, the situation does favor Baltimore here.
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: The problem is the starting pitching matchup. Looking at the
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers, it actually favors Cleveland slightly. So I don't
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: want to get involved in the game. I want the
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers to kind of line up for me. Maybe
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: it's too autistic of me or whatever, but I want
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: all that stuff to line up in my favor. But
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: Baltimore would be the situational play, and that is where
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: the money is. But the matchup, the pitching matchup kind
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: of says Cleveland here. And if you want to take Baltimore,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, there is an argument to play it only
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: first five as well. You might have to pay a
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: little bit more for it, I'm not sure. But their
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: bullpen is, I think, slightly worse than Cleveland's. So do
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: with that info what you want. The total's at 8.5.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: The money's slightly indicating towards the over, but I don't
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: really have an opinion on the total there at all.
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: Cubs and Milwaukee on ESPN Unlimited. This will be a
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: big series here. Although Milwaukee in that last series, because
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: I think they won three out of four against the Cubs. No,
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: did they split? No, they split. Here it is. Milwaukee
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: just played in Chicago two series ago, and they split
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: the series. But in doing so, Milwaukee maintained like a
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: seven or eight game lead in the division pretty much. Now,
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee did just lose to the Reds, which is not good.
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: But they're returning home from a road trip, and that's
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: not good. So two series road trip, returning home from
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: the road. You know I always talk about that. When
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: a team returns home from the road, It's a negative.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: They've got to get back to home life. They can
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: potentially get distracted here. They do still have a seven-game
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: lead over the Cubs, so they might not fully take
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: the Cubs seriously, even though they did just split that
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: last series against them. And they did just lose badly
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: to the Reds. The Cubs just had a bad loss yesterday, though,
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: to the Marlins. So the Cubs might come in here
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: with a little bit of extra fire here. Cubs are
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: also not a bad road team. They're well above. 500
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: on the road. Milwaukee is excellent at home, but we're
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: looking at two good teams here, man. It's not a
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: great pitching matchup, and you remember last time these two
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: pitchers faced off, Boyd and Gasser, I gave out the
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: over in Wrigley Field on the show, but I think Wrigley,
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: I think it was kind of skewed because of the
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: wind blowing out there too, so the total in that
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: game I think was 10.5, and it hit. We won
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: on the over in that one, but the thing about
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: that was Boyd is actually worse at home, and he
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: was at home there. Gasser is actually worse on the road,
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: so both of those things lined up towards the over there.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: We don't have either of those going for us here,
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: so I don't really want to play the over in
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: this game. As far as the bullpens are concerned, the
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: Cubs used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Milwaukee
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: used four. Milwaukee's bullpen is the better one, though, as
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: I accidentally closed that tab. Milwaukee is number eight in bullpen.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: They're a top three or four bullpen here, man. The
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: Cubs are number 15. They're decent, but Milwaukee is better.
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: Cubs are still number one offensively, and by quite a bit,
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: they're definitely raking. milwaukee number five though milwaukee also a
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: good offense matthew boyd as i said pitching for the
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: cubs he's mediocre 4.05 era 1.23 whip he's way better
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: on the road though that was part of the reason
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: i like the over in that home game his road
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: era is like two and a half runs better at 2.83
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: so i don't really want to fade him on the
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: road he's much better on the road He still didn't
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: even pitch that bad in that start against Milwaukee, but
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: he wasn't great. It was bad enough that we still
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: got the over to come home in that one. He
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: was pitching somewhat well prior to that. Actually kind of mediocre.
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio was definitely not good in the
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: month of August, and it's not that good on the season.
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: He does have a hit rate that's okay. His walk
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: rate is a bit too high. His strikeout rate is
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: definitely low, though, so he's not striking guys out. 2.5
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is down from what he did the
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: last couple years, so that's not exactly great. He's got
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: a 6.9 strikeout per nine. That's kind of the issue.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate's gone down this year, so he's not
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: really fooling hitters at this point. And part of the
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: reason why I faded him last time, Milwaukee does hit
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: him well. They have 110 at-bats against him, a 273 average,
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: 788 OPS, which I think those numbers actually got a
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: little bit better after he pitched against him last time,
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: but whatever. 23 to 10 strikeout walk ratio. Still not good.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: I think he is still probably slightly fadable here. Robert
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: Gasser getting the start for Milwaukee. He's got a 4.57 ERA. Now, 1.29 whip.
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: Those are not great numbers. He's better at home, though. 4.05
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: home ERA. So when I faded him last time, he
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: was on the road. He didn't pitch that well in
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: that game against Chicago. Didn't make it five innings, although...
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee wound up winning because they used their bullpen advantage
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: in that game to get that win. Gasser has not
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: been pitching deep into some of his recent starts here.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: He's not really pitching particularly well, although I guess he's
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: pitching a little bit better than Boyd is recently for
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: the most part. Gasser's got kind of a high hit
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: rate here on the season. He doesn't walk as many
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: guys as Boyd. Well, actually, I don't know. His walk
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: rate's around the same, actually, I guess, given the amount
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: of innings pitched here. Gasser is a better strikeout pitcher
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: at this point than Boyd, though. even though I don't
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: think he exactly throws gas. He's got a three strikeout
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, which is better than Boyd. 8.5 strikeout per
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: nine is definitely better. And after last start, Gasser, going
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: into that start, he had some bad numbers against the Cubs,
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: but these numbers aren't really that bad right now. 37
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: at bats, 243 average, 678 OPS. So I think he
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: kind of got those numbers down a bit, unless I
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: misread the numbers last time, but we still won on
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: that play. Nine to three strikeout walk ratio there. So
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: I do not want to play the over here. Now,
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: it looks like Milwaukee does have the pitching edge here.
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to do it because they're returning
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: home from the road, and the money is actually backing
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: the Cubs. Cubs are going to be the more motivated
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: team here. Boyd is the more established starter, if you will. Milwaukee,
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: 60% of tickets on them, 51% of the cash on Chicago.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's in the minus 120s here. But yeah, it is
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: still a road trip return for Milwaukee. So even though
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: they think they have a slight starting pitching edge, I
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: don't really want to do it. The money's also back
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: in the under 8.5, for whatever that's worth. Both pitchers
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: are in their better home road split here, at least,
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: but I don't exactly love the numbers. So I played
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: the over for a reason the last time these two
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: starters faced off. I won't play the over here, but
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to recommend an under here either. I
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: don't have a great read on this game. It's a very,
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: very hard game to read for me. You do have
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: two good offenses here, though, but good pitching defeats good offense,
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: although I'm not sure this qualifies as good pitching. What
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: I will say is if you're going to play the
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: Cubs here based on the situation and whatever, I would
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: only do it first five because I think Milwaukee will
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: have a bullpen edge there. All right, Minnesota and Detroit.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Let's see if Minnesota has not decided on a starter yet.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: Detroit's returning home from the road, and I'm wondering if
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: they're going to be in a dream crusher mode at
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: this point. because they just played Minnesota on the road.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: They did lose that series though. So maybe they do
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: want quick revenge here or whatever. So Detroit, maybe they
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: won't overlook the twins completely. Like even if Detroit, they
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: did just lose in Cleveland three out of four. So
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: Detroit's probably effectively eliminated at this point. Are they going
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: to feel bad about that? And is that what their
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: mental state is going to be? Or are they going
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: to be like, fuck Minnesota? Like if, Like, basically, if
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: we're not going to make the playoffs, you're not going
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: to make it either. Are they going to show up
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: to try to spoil it for Minnesota, especially since they
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: just lost in Minnesota two out of three? Maybe they will.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know. But I don't like the road trip
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: return spot. You know me. A team returning home from
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: the road, a negative spot, returning back to home life, whatever,
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: especially when they could potentially be in a bad mental.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: state so I don't want Detroit here even though they're
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: starting pitching like the pitcher they have going is is
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: Melton he's pretty good generally but you'll see in a
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: minute why I don't want to back him even even
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: if Detroit wasn't in a return home spot I don't
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: think I'd want to back him Minnesota just lost to
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: the White Sox, and they're coming in. Quick trip for
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: them from Chicago to Detroit. They lost pretty badly yesterday, 10-1.
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: Minnesota might be a little bit more motivated off a
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: loss like that coming into Detroit. It's a better situational spot,
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: I think, for Minnesota here. Now, I'm pretty sure that
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: it is going to be Connor Prelip from Minnesota here
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: because he's not injured. He'd be in the next up
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: in their rotation, but They might put an opener in
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: front of him or something. So I think if you're
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: going to play this game, well, you have to. If
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: you're going to play this game, you have to pick
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: Melton must start. Well, you don't have to, but I
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: think you should. Pick Melton must start, but don't pick
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: a starter from Minnesota. But I believe it is going
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: to be pre-lip in this game. And I tend to
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: be right about these things. I could be wrong, though.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: And for Minnesota, I know we haven't seen Joe Ryan
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: for a while. That's because he's hurt. Maybe that's the holdup.
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: Maybe Joe Ryan, is he about to come off the DL?
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: Let me see. He's likely to return to make his
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: next start, but when is that going to be? Maybe
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: he's already scheduled for it. Let me see. Because I
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: want to make sure I get this right, you know,
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: as far as guessing who the starter is going to be.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: Make his next start, which is when? Unless he didn't
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: know over pitch yesterday. So, oh, you know what? Well, no,
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: because Prelip isn't listed at all in this thing here. So, yeah,
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, unless they're going to shove all
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: their pitchers back. Ryan is not listed in the schedule
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: here right now, so this is tough. So it could
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: be Joe Ryan pitching in this game. So this is
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: a difficult game to figure out, actually. And you know
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: Joe Ryan's generally good. So let's just check his numbers
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: here against the Tigers really quick here. You know, Ryan,
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: he's kind of mediocre against the Tigers. But, you know,
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: whether it's Ryan or Prelip here, the handicap is going
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: to kind of remain the same for me. I think
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: either way, I kind of like Minnesota in the first
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: five here. Obviously, I don't like their bullpen. But let
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: me see. Prelip, if he pitches here, I know he's
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: not that good. 5.28 ERA, 1.37 WIP. He's coming off
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: a five-inning shutout against these very Detroit Tigers, though, at home. Although,
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: Prelip is better at home. I would worry about him
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: a little bit on the road. 6.4 roadie array with
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: a way high opponent batting average, over 300. So, I
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: would worry about him a bit on the road. Although,
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: he actually pitched reasonably well his last road start against Anaheim.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: The reason to like him here, though, is that he
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: is good against Detroit. Only 18 at-bats, though. I think
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: that might have been the first time they faced him, really.
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: 167 average, 433 OPS. But the problem is, you know
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: what I talk about with these young pitchers. 5-to-1 strikeout
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, by the way. The only extra base hit
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: was a double from Torkelson. But you know what I
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: talk about. These young pitchers, they have an unfamiliarity edge
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: when the opposing offense hasn't seen them before. But then
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: once the offense has seen them once, a lot of
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: times they do better the next time, especially when it's
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: quick and they see him again in quick succession so
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: that might hurt a little bit if it is going
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: to be pre-lip here now as far as the bullpens
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: are concerned Minnesota obviously has a terrible bullpen Detroit used
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: five guys out of their bullpen yesterday though Minnesota used
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: five as well Minnesota's a bad bullpen they're ranked number
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: 29 I think they're probably maybe better than Kansas City
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: and they're definitely better than the A's I would say
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: but they're not a good bullpen they're like they're completely
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: unbackable Detroit, number 16 in bullpen, obviously is the better
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: bullpen here. Minnesota's the better offense. They're number nine, tied
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: with the White Sox. Detroit has fallen off offensively. They're 20th,
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: tied with Cincinnati. Troy Melton, as I was about to
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: get to, is pitching for Detroit. He's had a good season.
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: He was good last year, too. 2.2 ERA, 1.03 WIP.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit worse at home, but it's not
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: really significant. 2.36 home ERA. Wasn't good last time against Minnesota, though.
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: He was pitching really well up to that point. He
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: hadn't allowed more than four earned runs in any start
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: this season, and the four only happened one time, but
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: it was also against Minnesota. So he's allowed three or
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: fewer earned runs in all but two starts this entire season,
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: and both of those starts are against Minnesota. So his
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: two worst starts of the entire season, both against Minnesota,
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: one at home, one on the road. Minnesota just appears
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: to have his number, man. I don't know what to
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: tell you. Minnesota has 44 at-bats against them at 295 average, 1,038 OPS.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: So I would not back Melton here. 7-1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: And it's a return home spot for Detroit. So I
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: like Minnesota in the first five in this one. I
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: don't think you can back their bullpen. You know, I mean...
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Maybe just play it now because it looks like you
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: can get them as a little bit of an underdog
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: price here. 72% of tickets on Detroit, 57% of the
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: cash on Minnesota. The money's coming in on Minnesota. If
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: Joe Ryan comes back, you're going to get less of
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: a good price on this. Minnesota will wind up being
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: a favorite if Joe Ryan comes back. Although that makes
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: it better for Minnesota. I mean, obviously, because the oddsmakers
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: know that. They're going to move the favorite over to
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: Minnesota if that happens. At least on the first five.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: It is. There it is. It just refreshed. Joe Ryan
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: will be making his return. You know what? I think
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: I might add this to the card here. Because you
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: know I like veteran pitchers coming back from the injured list.
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: And Ryan's numbers, I already showed you his numbers. They're
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: not bad here. He's got a 3.65 ERA, by the way. 1.14 whip.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: He is slightly worse on the road, kind of. 3.88 ERA,
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: but who cares? he wasn't good, um, going into that injury,
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: but he had two bad starts in a row against
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, I mean, I don't know, and he wasn't
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: good before that at all against Cleveland, so I don't
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: know what happened here, man, the all-star break maybe threw
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: him off, but he's way too good of a pitcher
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: to be just permanently destroyed like this, you know what
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, like, he's going to bounce back, he's only
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: 30 years old, that's not bad, and I think it
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: might start here, right, you know, um, Now, he did
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: pitch against Detroit earlier this year. He was very mediocre
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: in that start at home against Detroit. But overall, he's
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: got a pretty low hit rate. He doesn't really walk anybody.
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate. 5.1 strikeout walk ratio
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: is excellent. Strikeout per nine, 9.9 is also very good.
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: And as I said here, against Detroit, he has good
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: enough numbers here. They have 76 at-bats against him, a
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: 250 average, 742 OPS. It's mediocre, but... I don't think
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: it's that bad. Uh, 27 to eight strikeout walk ratio there.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: And veteran pitchers, when they come back from an injured
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: list stint like this, they tend to do well, man.
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: Like I think he's used to something like this. I
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: think he can come back pitch. Well, I didn't see
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: what he did in his rehab stuff, but you, you know,
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: you spend time getting ready to go. Like you're only
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: going to be out there when you're ready to go.
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? And this is desperation time
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: for Minnesota here. It's a bad situational spot for Detroit
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: as well. Um, I think we have to do this now.
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: The line's going to move almost immediately here because of
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: the Joe Ryan announcement. Let me see what we can
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: get for the number on this. So my apologies. This
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: is happening live while this is happening. First five, you
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: can still get them as a plus 115 underdog at
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: the M book. DK is pretty close as well. Let's
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: do it, man. I say do this right now. because
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: the line's going to move. Although Melton does get respect,
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: so I don't know, but I think Minnesota's going to
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: wind up being a favorite here, but grab Minnesota in
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: the first five, man. That's what we're going to do here.
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: I'm adding a play on the fly. I already liked this,
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: but I'm going to do it now that Joe Ryan's
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: coming back. Good spot to play it. He's a pitcher
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: that I trust, although, dude, Joe Ryan sucks every time
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: I play on him, so I guess I will caution
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: you in that way, but... He's not a bad pitcher, dude.
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: It's just, I don't know. Joe Ryan, whenever I bet
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: on him, I curse him. So, Joe, please forgive me, man.
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: Please forgive me. Or maybe I should be mad at you. Like,
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: don't let me get in your head, Joe. Come on. Like,
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: he obviously is a listener of this show, and whenever
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: I bet on him, it puts extra pressure on him, man.
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: Come on, Joe. Don't worry about that. Don't worry about me.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: What do we have next? We have Washington and San
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: Diego here. San Diego, good weekend series beating the Yankees. Obviously,
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: I am happy about that. It was a close series.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: Each win that they had was a one-run win, and
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: the first one was a walk-off against the Yankees' closer. Padres,
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: they got to play with motivation here, man, because they're
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: trying to make the playoffs. They're in this heat with
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: Arizona right now. They got to keep going, man, because...
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: Cubs are there in the wild card race. Phillies are there.
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's really only one spot. To me, Cubs
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: and Phillies are both making the playoffs. It's just a
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: matter of it's going to be San Diego versus Arizona
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: for the final wild card pretty much. So they got
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: to keep winning. They're a half game behind Arizona right now.
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: They got to make it, man. Washington won't have as
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: much motivation here, unless they care about playing spoiler here
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: against a team that they don't care that much about.
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: I'm not really sure that they care. Now, they are
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: staying in California. Padres are staying at home. Washington's only
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: traveling down from L.A., which is easy, but they just
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: got swept in L.A., and it was a close series, dude.
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: They almost beat the Dodgers every one of those games,
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: pretty much. They lost every game by one or two runs,
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: and last night, they were winning the game in the
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: eighth inning, I'm pretty sure, and Mookie Betts hit a
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: three-run homer in the eighth inning to get the Dodgers
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: the win. Yeah, that's kind of a brutal loss for Washington,
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: coming off a big series like that and falling just short.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: So I don't know if Washington's going to have a
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: ton left in the tank. And remember, that was a
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: late-night game, too. So quick turnaround time. That was a
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: weird late-night game. Oh, by the way, Minnesota did play
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: the night game on Peacock, so I will caution you
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: about that. And you know me, I usually like to
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: fade the team's coming off the night game, but at
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: least Minnesota got obliterated in that game. So that's a
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: good thing that on a national spotlight game, they got
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: their asses handed to them. So sometimes I do like
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: to play on a team that, yeah, that got just
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: ass whooped in a very public game like that. Cause
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: the public doesn't tend to want them as much and
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: they tend to flip the script, but yes, be aware.
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: Minnesota does have a shorter turnaround, but it is a
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: night game here for Minnesota and Detroit. Oh no, no, sorry.
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: It is an afternoon game.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Fuck.
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: So Minnesota does have a short turnaround time there, but
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: I still like them. Okay. And Detroit's still returning home
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: from the road, so whatever. Let me see.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: And.
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: What else was I going to say? Oh, yeah, Washington
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: played the late, late-night game, so be aware of that.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: But they're at least playing an evening-ish game here, but
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: quick turnaround time there. Now, this game gets a little
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: bit interesting because San Diego's bringing back a starting pitcher
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: who I completely forgot about, which I shouldn't have because
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: he was on the Red Sox recently. San Diego used
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: three relief pitchers yesterday. They clearly have the way better
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: bullpen here. Although Washington looks like they didn't use anybody.
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: Is that right? I mean, it seems like they would
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: have used some relief pitchers in that game against Detroit,
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: but maybe they just went with one of their extra
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: starters just to eat up the rest of the innings.
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: What did they do? Alvarez started, yeah, then they used
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: Lord and Dion. I guess those guys aren't considered to
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: be relief pitchers. So, yeah, Washington's better relievers are available here,
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: but who cares? They suck. San Diego, number seven in bullpen,
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: but they're really like a top five bullpen. Washington's number 26th.
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: They might be one of the worst three. I mean,
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: they have a 5-plus ERA, so that's not a good bullpen.
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: San Diego, clearly the better bullpen. Washington is the way
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: better offense, though, number three. San Diego is number 25, although, again,
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: post-All-Star break, they've definitely been better. Jake Irvin is getting
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: the start here for Washington. He's not very good. 5.57 ERA, 1.4 whip.
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: He's better on the road, though. 4.76 road ERA with
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: a 198 opponent batting average on the road. So he
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: is significantly better on the road. He's coming off a mediocre,
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: kind of short outing against Atlanta. A little bit of
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: a bad sign that his last couple outings have been
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: really short. Now, Irvin, he's got a decent hit rate.
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high. His strikeout rate is high, though,
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: so he does strike guys out. So he's got some
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: strikeout talent here, and I have backed him before for
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: that reason, but he walks too many guys. He's got
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, and he has a really
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: nice 9.1 strikeout per nine, which is the highest he's
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: ever posted. He's got to get his walks under control, though, man.
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: That's been a major issue for him. But against San Diego,
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: we've got a pitcher-friendly park here, and he does do
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: fairly well against them, but they really are unfamiliar with him.
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: They have five hitters who have seen him. The only
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: guy that has a hit off him is Ty France
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: with two singles. They're combined two for eight off him,
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: two strikeouts, three walks, though, 250 average, 705 OPS. But
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: given that Irvin's better on the road, this is a
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly environment, San Diego's kind of unfamiliar with him and
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: haven't had success off him otherwise. I think Irvin might
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: actually pitch well here. And San Diego will be bringing
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: back Nick Pavetta, which is what I was referring to.
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: I forgot about him, man. I apologize, even though he
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: was a Red Sox pitcher like two years ago probably.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: Pavetta's a decent pitcher, man. He's not old, and he's
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: been out for almost the entire season. You know what
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: I say about this? Veterans coming back from the injured list,
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: although when it's a longer injury stint, sometimes that will
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: throw them off a little bit. But usually they're ready
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: to go when they come back. They've worked all this
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: rehab out. Pavetta's got to be excited. You got to think, man,
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: because he hasn't pitched since like April or whatever. And
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: he's on a team that's right there trying to make
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. So you got to think he's going to
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: come in excited for this. He had a 4.5 ERA,
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: but 1.13 whip pretty solid before he went down. He
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: only pitched in March and April. He made four starts
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: before he went down. He pitched pretty well. Had a
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: nice strikeout rate, pretty high. Didn't really walk that many guys.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: Had a low enough hit rate. But you want to
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: look at his career numbers, right, which are, you know,
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: admittedly somewhat mediocre here. But for San Diego, he pitched
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: the full season in 2025, and he was excellent. Like,
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: pitching in that pitcher-friendly park, I think, really, really helped him.
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: So you could look at that and be like, yeah,
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: this guy is definitely good. And maybe that is what
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: you want to look at. He was really good at
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: home last year. So he might be able to kind
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: of continue that type of thing here. Nick Pavetta against Washington.
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: Let me see here. He's been good against them. It's
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: only 28 at-bats, though. They have seven guys who have
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: faced him. A 179 average allowed and 448 OPS. Good
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: numbers for Pavetta against Washington. They have really had very
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: limited success. One extra base hit. Ruiz with a double here.
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: Nine strikeouts, two walks. So I think the under is
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: actually the best way to play this game. The total
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: is at eight or even eight and a half at
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: some places, which is pretty reasonable for a San Diego total.
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: 82% of the tickets on the over, 89% of the
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: cash on the over, but I think it's a public over.
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: I like the under here. I think both pitchers might
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: pitch well enough. They're both probably going to be in
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: their better home road splits here. The money is back
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: in Washington. I don't really see that. Pavetta's the better
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: pitcher here, but it's all about the price, right? Like
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: San Diego, everybody knows San Diego must win because they're
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: trying to make the playoffs, and they're minus 200 here.
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: So you have to pay a real, real steep price
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: for San Diego here. Pavetta's definitely the better pitcher, though.
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: San Diego's the better team. They got the better bullpen
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: as well. The only advantage Washington really has is the offense.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: 82% of the tickets on San Diego, 66% of the
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: cash on Washington. So the money is back in Washington. But, yeah,
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, I would think that San Diego should win
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: this game, but I would not lay a price like this.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: You got to worry about their offense a little bit, too,
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: because you'd have to lay like a minus one and
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: a half run line or something. But obviously... Like I
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: already said, I would play the under if I was
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: going to play this game. I think both starting pitchers
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: might do all right there. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: for hanging out.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: Let me see. I'm thinking, like, should I take a break?
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, we have three games left. We have another
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: NBC Peacock night game because it's Labor Day, so it's
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: like functionally a Sunday here. Like we have a bunch
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: of afternoon baseball. Feels like Sunday. And then there's one
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: NBC Peacock night game. And then for whatever reason, there
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: were two late night West Coast games as well. And
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: there was one late game last night as well. And
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: one of the teams in that late game was Washington.
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: The other is L.A., the Dodgers. And they're also playing
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: tonight with a quicker turnaround time. I'll be right back.
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: I do have one more play here, and you can
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: probably guess what it is based on what you see
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: with these remaining three. I'll be right back. I'm going
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: to give up that play. I'll talk about the remaining
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: three baseball games, and then we do have Monday Night Football,
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: but it's college football, not NFL. I'll talk about that game, too.
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5.
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: never seen anything like this. With the slump continuing. Two
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4. I
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: just have not had a good season, man. With weekends.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Slumped.
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: March 8th?
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all. All right, St. Louis,
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: San Francisco, NBC Peacock, national TV night game here. Looks
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: like it could be a pitching matchup on the surface
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: here with McGreevy against Webb, um and it's in San
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: Francisco pitcher friendly park that's not what I'm gonna really
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: recommend here though San Francisco's returning home from a road
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: trip where they had to play a makeup game in
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: Atlanta then they played in Pittsburgh and in New York
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: so they're traveling cross country back home to play a
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: night game you know I talk about that It's like
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: a double negative because a return home spot, which is
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: a negative anyway, because you're having to get back to
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: home life, whatever. San Francisco's not going anywhere this year.
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: A losing team in a spot like that against another
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: team that's not going anywhere. St. Louis, it's a bad
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: spot for San Francisco, man. I don't think they're going
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: to really necessarily get up for St. Louis. Plus, they're
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: going to have this time zone shift to have to
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: deal with. At least they're not playing a 10 p.m.
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: game here, Eastern, but even so... 8 p.m. Eastern. They
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: still have to kind of adjust their bio clocks to
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: this thing, so it's not a good spot for San Francisco. Yeah,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: maybe that does affect their offense or whatever. St. Louis
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: is coming in from Colorado. They've had a weird schedule.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: They were out on the West Coast for L.A., then
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: they went into the mountains to play Colorado. They won
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: both series somehow. Well, I mean, somehow. I mean, Colorado's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: not good, but somehow they beat the Dodgers as well.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: Now they're going back to the West Coast here, and
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: they're playing in San Francisco. But shifting one time zone
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: over is going to be easier for St. Louis to
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: do than what San Francisco is doing, moving three time
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: zones over plus returning back home. So definitely a negative
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: spot for San Francisco here. I don't love either bullpen.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is, they only used two relief pitchers yesterday. St.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: Louis used four, it looks like. San Francisco is number
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: 24 in bullpens. St. Louis 22. I would fade both bullpens. St.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: Louis' ERA is worse. than san francisco so they might
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: be the worst of the two i don't like either
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: offense even though san francisco is 18th right now i
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: keep saying they're not that good and they're definitely not
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: that good at home st louis is not very good
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: offensively either they're 24th so some things do make this
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: look like an under right like san francisco's offense could
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: be thrown off by the return home and the time
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: zone shift and whatever i don't think either pitcher is
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: bad and um Both offenses are bad, but when you
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: start digging into this a bit, Michael McGreevy pitching for St. Louis, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: His numbers have gotten a little bit worse recently, although
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: he is actually better on the road somehow. 3.89 road ERA,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: even though St. Louis has a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but so
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: is this ballpark in San Francisco. McGreevy has not been
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: good recently, though, and the advanced analytics guys are patting
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: themselves on the back because McGreevy's had two bad starts
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: in a row. Maybe he bounces back. I mean, the
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: last start was actually kind of mediocre against the Dodgers,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: and he actually won the start because he got a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: ton of run support. That was that crazy 13-8 game.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high, though. His walk rate
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: is not bad. His strikeout rate is very low, which
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: is why the analytics guys hate him. He's got a 2.6
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, which is not exactly great. 6.2 strikeout
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: per nine, very unimpressive there. He doesn't strike guys out, man,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: but he doesn't put that many guys on base typically. Now,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: against San Francisco, McGreevy has not done well, but only
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: five of their hitters have faced him. It's a small sample,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: 13 at-bats, 385 average, though, 1376 OPS. That is not good,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: but it's pretty much all Devers doing the damage, though.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: Three for five with two home runs and a walk.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: But the rest of these guys do have some hits
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: off them as well, so... I don't love McGreevy's matchup here,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: but some of San Francisco hasn't seen him before. If
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: he's able to pitch around Devers, maybe he can do
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: okay here. Logan Webb is pitching for San Francisco on
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: the other side. I think Logan Webb does have the
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: matchup advantage here, which I don't like because that means
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: the matchup advantage is in conflict with the situation, right?
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: Because San Francisco is in a bad situation. But they
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: got one of their better starters here. 4.21 ERA for Webb,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: but he's better than that. He's got a 1.16 whip,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: which would indicate his ERA should be better than this.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: He's better at home. That's been the way throughout his career. 3.39
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: home ERA. His road ERA has gotten way worse. His
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: road ERA has shot up to over five here. He
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: was really bad last time out against Pittsburgh. And yeah,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: we fucked up on that one. That under came nowhere close.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: Of course, a Webb versus Skeens game. Of course, it's
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: going to be 13-12. Yeah, give me a break. Webb
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: was awful in that start. His home starts have all
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: been good recently, though. He's had two bad starts recently,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: and they were both on the road at Boston and
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: at Pittsburgh. So he's still good. I think he's good.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: He's good at home. I think he should bounce back
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: from that bad start. Pittsburgh, they put up a lot
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: of offense at home. Webb has a pretty low hit
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: rate here. He doesn't really walk anybody. He doesn't really
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: strike many guys out either, though. He is a ground
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: ball pitcher, but this is just the way that he's been.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: He's been very consistent. His numbers throughout his career have
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: been pretty good. He's got a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: this year, which is lower than what he's posted throughout
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 4: most of his career. So, yeah, that's not great, but whatever.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate's gone a bit down to 7.2, but
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: he's still been fairly effective here, and he's facing a
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: weak St. Louis lineup here. And they have not really
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: done too well against them in 35 at-bats. 257 average,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: 640 OPS. Webb has done reasonably well against them. 11-2
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. I don't know what to do with
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: this game because it's a bad spot for San Francisco.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: Webb pretty clearly has the pitching matchup edge, I would
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: say here. And he's just the better pitcher throughout his career.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: 64% in tickets, 90% in the cash on San Francisco.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: They're at like minus 130 here. The total's at 7.5.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: The money is sort of indicating towards the over, but
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: it's kind of a public over as well. I don't
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: know what to do with this. I mean, the oddsmakers
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: are basically telling you they think it's going to be
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: a low-scoring game. If it was not a return home
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: spot for San Francisco, I would say, yeah, San Francisco
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: makes sense here. The matchup says San Francisco. If you
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: want to play San Francisco, I think you could do
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: it full game because I really don't like St. Louis' bullpen. But,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't want to play on San Francisco
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: in a return home spot with a three-time zone shift here.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: I can't do it. So I have no clue what
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: to do with this game, to be honest. I mean,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: maybe it is still an under type of game, man.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: It could be. I mean, you have to worry about
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: the bullpens, though, and about McGreevy. So that does worry me.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: I think if you go under, you got to go
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: first five, but then you're looking at like a three,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: three and a half. I don't like this game. Like, yeah,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: that game is a complete pass for me. The next
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: game is my play, which maybe people could have figured out.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: And StreamYard's kind of delaying here or something on trying
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: to bring up those images. We're going to take Cincinnati
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: in the first five. What else is new? Yeah, Chase
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: Burns is on the mound. Cincinnati first five. It's automatic, man.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: And we're getting him as a nice underdog here. I
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: found plus 124 at, I think, maybe the M book.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: Or it might have been the book with the Roman emperor.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 4: I forget, but whatever. I mean, there are some good
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: numbers out here. You'll get them as an underdog even
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: in the first five, which... They should not be an
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: underdog in the first five, man. It's going to be Burns,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: and it's... I don't know who LA is going to
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: pitch here, but I don't even really give a shit.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: I think Burns is going to have the upper hand
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: against anybody that it might be. Now, Yamamoto is supposed
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: to be next in the rotation, but he's not pitching
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: today because he'd be on four days rest because they
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: haven't had a day off. So they're not going to
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: pitch Yamamoto. And in fact, I looked at the schedule,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: and he's supposed to start Wednesday now. So... LA is
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: kind of getting ready for the playoffs. They don't want
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: to overwork these guys either. So they're actually pushing Yamamoto
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: back an extra day. So it's not going to be
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: Yamamoto here. So we don't have to worry about that.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: Because I was going to say, if it's Yamamoto, then
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: like a first five under is going to start making
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: some sense. But nope, that's not what it's going to be. Now,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: Eric Lauer would actually be up in the rotation if
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: they were sticking to that rest schedule here. But he's hurt.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: So it's not going to be Lauer either. And Lauer
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: was not pitching well over his last couple starts or whatever.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: But he's now hurt. So I honestly have no idea
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: who LA is pitching here. And I don't think it's
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: going to be anybody good enough to take us off
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: of this thing. And the money's completely agreeing with me
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: on this. 80% of the tickets, 57% of the cash
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: on LA, despite not knowing who their pitcher is going
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: to be. So the money is fading them. They're like
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: a minus 150 something favorite here without even knowing who
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: the hell their starter is. We're going to avoid the
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: bullpens because Cincinnati's bullpen is awful. They used, what, five
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: guys yesterday, it looks like. L.A. used four. But, yeah,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: we're going to avoid the bullpens. L.A. is the better bullpen.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: They're number 10. Cincinnati is number 25. So, yeah, we're
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: definitely avoiding the bullpens. They're a pretty terrible bullpen. Yeah,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers have the better offense. Everybody knows that. Number two, Cincinnati,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: number 20, tied with Detroit. But this is all about
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: backing Chase Burns against a pitcher who's probably going to
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: be worse than him. And L.A. played in the late-night
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: game last night, right? So that's another thing that I'm
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: looking at here. They played in the late, late game here.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: I know this is going to be a night game
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: as well, but it'll be a longer turnaround time for
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: the Reds here. And the Dodgers are coming off a
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: nice weekend sweep of Washington, so they might feel pretty
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: good about that, even though, yes, I know the Dodgers
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: did get a scare or two. in that series. They
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: might still be kind of focused here, but I don't know, man.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Dodgers might kind of be just playing
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: out the stretch a little bit here. And yes, I'm
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: aware the Dodgers have a good home record. Cincinnati is
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: not good on the road, although it's like... Dodgers are
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: just good either way. And Cincinnati is just not good
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: either way. So it doesn't really matter. Like the road
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: record is not like abysmally bad or anything. Now the Reds,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: they just beat the Brewers. So I know it could
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: be a letdown spot for them. That worries me a
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: little bit. Huge win for them against the Brewers. And, yes,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: they're having to travel out to the West Coast for
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: a late-night game. So, yes, that does worry me a
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: little bit because I don't like that time zone shift.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: But the good thing about it is we only have
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: to rely on Chase Burns here. We do not have
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: to rely on– well, we do have to rely on
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati's hitting a little bit, I guess, to get us
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: some runs here. But I think they could do it.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm a little bit worried about that, but yeah,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: I think we should do it. Burns, I mean, he's good, man.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, he makes you money when you back him
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: in the first five. So he's got a 15-3 record
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: despite being on a terrible Reds team. So that tells
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: you something. 2.79 ERA, 1.16 whip. He's not as good
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: on the road, 3.5 road ERA, but whatever. I mean,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: that's still pretty good. He really doesn't seem to be
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: running out of steam, even though he's allowed a few
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: more runs recently. He's coming off facing the Cubs, and
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: he did pretty well in that one, so he's used
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: to facing these top-tier offenses here. Has a really good
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio still, so normally I'd be worried that
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: he's getting up there in his innings. He's getting close
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: to 150, but it looks like he's still striking out
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: guys at a high rate, so I'm not too worried
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: right now. He's got a low hit rate. His walk
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: rate is a little bit high. His strikeout rate is
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: quite high, though, so his strikeout walk ratio is still
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: pretty good at 3.4, 10.6 strikeout per nine, and he's
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: good against L.A., believe it or not. Uh, they have
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: a two 38 average against them in six 19 OPS
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: in 21 at bats against them, a five zero strikeout
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So he's done fairly well against LA. He,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: I believe he did face them once this year. Um, no,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: he didn't. Oh, I don't know. I thought he did.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: I guess I'm wrong about that. Well, that might help
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: us because LA hasn't even seen him recently. So they're
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: going to kind of be unfamiliar with them still. So yeah,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: we're doing it. Um, You know, the situational spot's not
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: really necessarily great for either team, but it just comes
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: down to the pitching matchup in that one.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: Mr.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: Penzi, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right, and
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: then the last game is pretty hideous. Toronto and the A's. Now,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: everybody knows Toronto's going to be motivated because Toronto is, like,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: they're right there. They're, like, one game out of the
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: last wild card spot, believe it or not. And they
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 4: got Dylan Cease on the mound, so you know you're
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: going to have to pay a huge price for Toronto here.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: They're a massive... road favorite here, and I just see
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: no way of being able to play Toronto here at
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: a price like that. The A's do suck. The A's,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: let me see, they're staying on the West Coast, I believe. Yeah,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: they're in Seattle. They did just lose a win streak.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: They almost swept Seattle. Seattle finally got the win there.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: Like I said, Wu was pitching. I was like, he's
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: got to come in there and be the stopper, man,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: and he was. So the A's did just lose a
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: four-game win streak there. Now they're returning home, but it's
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: technically a road trip return. for the A's, so that
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: is a negative. A's returning home from Texas and Seattle,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: but at least they're already readjusted to the Pacific time
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: zone here. But still, return home spot, not good. A
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: lot of times teams get distracted, you gotta get back
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: to home life. I don't know if they really care
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: that much about spoiling Toronto's season, because these are not
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: rivals or whatever. Now, Toronto does have to shift time zones.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: They were in the central time zone. They also lost
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: a four-game win streak, so that could hang them over
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: a little bit with that loss to the Royals yesterday.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: Now they've got to travel out for a late-night West
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: Coast game. They've got to adjust two time zones over.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: You know, I always talk about how that's a problem.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: So this is a negative for both teams here, and
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: that could affect the hitting. So I'm starting to think
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: that maybe, like, looking at some sort of under in
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: this game is actually going to be the way to look.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: I already think this because I already looked at it. But, yes,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: I think the... Some way of playing the under, I
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: actually think it's going to be the better way to
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: play this game, even though it kind of sounds crazy.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: Toronto does not have a good offense, though, so there
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: is that. Toronto used three relief pitchers yesterday. The A's
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: used three as well. The A's bullpen is god-awful, so
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: if you're going to play the under, you've got to
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: exclude their bullpen. They're number 28, but they're the worst bullpen.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: They suck. Toronto's fairly good in the bullpen department. They're
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: number 17, but I think they're a little bit better
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: than that. Offensively, the A's are number 13, so they're
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: a pretty capable offense, although they have some injuries still,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: I think. Toronto's bad, 27th, but I think that will
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: help us because the better pitcher is going for Toronto,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: so he can silence the A's better offense here, while
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: Toronto's bad offense might struggle a little bit against the
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: worst of these two pitchers here. Cease pitching for Toronto.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: We know he's been excellent. 2.25 ERA, 1.04 whip. He
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: might try to make maybe a late case for the
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: Cy Young here. He's been awesome on the road. He's
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: been insanely good on the road. 1.54 road ERA, the
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: 153 opponent batting average. Yeah, that's good. He's pitching really
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: well recently. Doesn't really show any signs of slowing down.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, we know what he is at this point.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate. He's basically unhittable.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: He strikes out a ton of guys recently. Does walk
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: too many guys, though. That's his one issue. And for
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: pitching in the A's stadium, you've got to worry about
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: fly ball rate. His is not that bad. Plus, he
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: strikes out so many guys. He doesn't allow many home runs, man.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: So he should be fine, even in this horrible stadium.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the A's are fine, and 43 at-bats,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: 256 average, 621 OPS allowed, 15-4 strikeout walk ratio. That's
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: not bad. They only have two extra base hits against him.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: Doubles from Gelof and Haim. So, yeah, I think Cease
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: should pitch well here. Jacob Lopez on the other side
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: is more of a mystery. I mean, he has not
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: had a good season, and I don't think he's that good. 4.71 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: He's worse at home, sort of. 5.11 home ERA, but
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: his home opponent batting average is actually better, which is interesting.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: You'd think he would be worse at home, and maybe
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: he is. His walk rate is worse at home. But
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: he's been pitching way better over the past, like, almost
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: two months at this point. He's allowed two or fewer
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: runs going all the way, in every appearance, going all
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: the way back into early July. Lopez is a very
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 4: streaky pitcher, man. He's been awesome over the last two months,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: which is, I don't know, man. He did this last year, too.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: He was really bad at various points, and then he
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 4: had one stretch where he looked awesome, and now it
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: looks like he's doing that right now. He might actually
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: pitch well here. He has a hit rate that's kind
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: of mediocre. His walk rate is too high. His strikeout
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: rate is decent, though. He's not a hard thrower. He
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: throws these nasty breaking pitches. So I think the way
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: he pitches, when he's pitching well, his breaking stuff is
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: really working. And when he's not, I think he's just
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: hanging those pitches in the zone. You know what I mean?
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: He's got a two strikeout walk ratio, which is really
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: not good. 8.8 strikeout per nine is mediocre. He was
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 4: better last year. He had a much better strikeout rate
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: last year. But even so... Based on what he did
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: last year and what he's doing right now, I think
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: he is better than his numbers would suggest. And we
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: got to look at his matchup numbers here against... Who
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: are we talking? I never remember. Oh, against Toronto. Their
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: offense is ass. Yeah, against Toronto. He sucks against Toronto, though,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: and that's the problem. 25 at-bats, 320 average, 10-10 OPS,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: 6-2 strikeout walk ratio. It's not a big sample, though,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: and only six of their hitters have faced him, so...
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: I do still think that the under in the first
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: five is a lean in this game. Let me see.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: The money, it looks like it is actually agreeing with that.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets, 70% of the cash on the under.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: And this is a crazy total for an A's game.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: Eight and a half. In an A's home game, this
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 4: has to be the lowest total in the stadium all season.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: And you know it's because of Dylan Cease. But... You know,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: even with Cease on the mound, you would think this
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: number would be like 9, 9.5, so I guess Lopez
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 4: is getting some respect there too. I mean, that's crazy,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: but the oddsmakers are telling you they think this is
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: going to be a really good pitching game based on that.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, you don't see totals this low in this
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: piece-of-shit stadium. So, whatever. I mean, I still think first five.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: You cannot back the A's bullpen. I still think first
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: five under is maybe worth a look, but it's going
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: to be a low number, man. It's going to be
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: like 4-5. Or 4.5, which is a little bit low
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: for an A's home game, I will say. And I
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: still don't disagree with Toronto. It's just they're unplayable at
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: a minus 200 price, you know what I mean? So
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: I think if you want to back Toronto, I guess
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: you could go with the A's team total under or something,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: but that's really pushing it. You're going to need the
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: A's to score at most three runs, but probably two
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: runs in a home game. That's kind of dicey, man. So, yeah,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: that's a game that I can't find a real good
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: approach to really play that game. But, yeah, that's it, man.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: And then, well, we do have college football as well,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: so let me get that up here, which I do
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: not have the schedule up, but there's only one game here.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: Hold on. All right. Oh, and I did not bring
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: up the returning starters, so let me do that. Yes,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: college football returning starters. I don't think we have coaching
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: changes in this one. So this game is SMU and–
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: Florida State here. By the way, the most anticipated matchup
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: of the week, basically the only ranked versus ranked matchup
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: kind of lived up to the billing there. I watched
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: the end of that game, Louisville and Ole Miss. Louisville
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: made like a multi touchdown comeback late in the game,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: tied the game where they should have gone for two.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: man in my opinion but it wound up not really
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: mattering because Ole Miss got down to field goal range
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: and got a field goal to win the game anyway
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: a 48 yarder from a kicker their kicker is good
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: but he was bad in the game last night but
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: he got the game winner there it was a crazy
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: game dude so yeah it lived up to the hype
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: anyway Number 19, SMU at Florida State in this ACC
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: matchup here. This will be on ESPN. SMU was the
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: better team last year. We all know this, but SMU
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: is bringing back a bunch of their starters here. Yeah,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 4: the stupid ad block thing. SMU bring back 11 starters,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: including Jennings, their quarterback. This offense should be able to
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: hit the ground running again, man. He's got a couple
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 4: of his wide receivers back, one running back back, and
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: Three-fifths of the O-line are coming back, so this SMU
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: offense should be good again. They shouldn't really miss a
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: beat here, so good continuity here. Bring back four guys
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: on defenses, whatever. Florida State is only bringing back six guys,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: so they're definitely kind of overhauling here. They were not
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: good last year, but they have a good transfer class,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, though. I don't remember who their quarterback is,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: but Florida State's still a big program, so they still reload.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: They've been bad the last two years, but that might
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: make them a little bit undervalued here, you know what
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: I mean? And they do have a game under their
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: belt already. I forgot about that, so you know I
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 4: talk about that. Teams that have a game under their belt,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: I think they have an advantage, even though... Thinking about
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 4: how sports work just over all of history, basically, that
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: should be an advantage, although I know some of the
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: guys have crunched the numbers, and I believe the team that...
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: didn't play in week zero if they're playing a team
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: that did play in week zero i believe the team
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: that didn't play actually might have a slight edge but
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: that edge goes away when um it involves a home
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: underdog the home underdog with a game under their belt
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: since 2021 they only have one against the spread loss
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: and guess what that game was yeah it was my
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: stanford play the other day so the home underdogs in
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: the The team that already played a game spot like that,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: they were 4-0 until Stanford didn't cover for us the
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 4: other day. So I'm pissed off. Since 2021, since the
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: transfer stuff started, I mean. So I'm pissed about that. Anyway,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: Florida State falls into that category. They're a home underdog.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: And you know the public's going to be on the
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: ranked team, SMU, especially because SMU was the better of
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: these two teams last year. And they still are based
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: on the spread here. SMU being favored on the road.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: Oswego's telling you they're the better team here, but Florida
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: State could be a little bit under the radar here.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're a program that's been really good throughout
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: their history, so you got to expect that the program
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: won't be down for this many years in a row,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: and maybe they start kind of moving back up. Now,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: they did already play a game, and they didn't look
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: that good. They only won by 17 against New Mexico State,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: and they were only winning by 10 late in that game, but...
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: You know, it was the first game of the season.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: Florida State's got a bunch of new faces here. Their
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: quarterback is this guy Daniels, I guess. I don't know
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: much about him, but whatever. If you look at what
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: happened in this game, Florida State, they won the game
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 4: pretty decisively, though, on the stat sheet. It wasn't really
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: necessarily as close as maybe it looked. I mean, whatever.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: They won the game yardage-wise by 100 yards. Possession-wise, they
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: didn't really dominate, though. So whatever, but yeah. Florida State,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: because they didn't look that great, there might be some
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: value there too because now they got a game under
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: their belt. I believe they're staying at home, so they
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: already played in this stadium. That should help them a
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: little bit. It's a little bit of an odd travel
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: spot for SMU because they're kind of new to the ACC.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 4: They don't typically have to play in Florida when they're
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: a Dallas, Texas team. So, yeah, I kind of like
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: Florida State in this one, man. I don't really want
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: to fade SMU because of all the continuity they have here, though.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: SMU is 75% of the tickets. They're public. They do
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: have 76% of the cash, though, so some of the
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 4: money looks like it is kind of leaning towards them
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 4: right now. I'm not sure that's going to be the
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: case when the game kicks off, though. Money's also back
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: in the under in this game, for whatever that's worth,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 4: at 53.5. I don't agree with that. like I think
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: the over actually might be the best way to play
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: this game because you get SMU. Yeah. They might start
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: a little slow, but they got all that continuity on
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 4: the offense and their offense was good. Like they put
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: up 32 points a game last year and believe it
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: or not, Florida state put up 33 points a game
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 4: last year, even though the Florida state has a new
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: offense here, but they did put up 34 in their
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: first game. I know it was against a bad team,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: New Mexico state, but whatever. Um, The offense, like Florida
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: State now has rhythm, right, because they played a game already.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: So their offense got a game under their belt. They're
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: in rhythm. And SMU shouldn't really need that that much
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: because of all the continuity there. So, yeah, I think
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: the over might be the best way to play this game,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: even though I don't really do totals much. And the
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: money is not agreeing with that. I'd also leave Florida
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: State slightly, plus the points here. But I don't really
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: exactly love it. SMU, with all that continuity, might be
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: able to take advantage of that. If you want Florida State,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: I would probably try to find the three. Man, the
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: three is the key number. It looks like it's two-and-a-half
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: juiced in most places right now, but I would just
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: wait because you're not going to lose much if it
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: goes from two-and-a-half to two. You know what I mean?
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: I would wait because it's the only football game of
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: the night. You know this game is going to have
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: the biggest betting handle. Everybody loves to bet football. This
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: game is going to have more handle on it than
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: any of the Major League Baseball games. I would just wait.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: This is going to be the most bet game of
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: the night. That means the public is going to be involved.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 4: They're going to be on SMU in this one. That
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: might get you there to that three again on that number.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: It looks like it is three right now at DK,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 4: but it's going to be juiced pretty heavily on the
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: Florida State side there. That's going to do it, man.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: I do have three baseball plays today, so let's get
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: this done. We're going to be on the over... in
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: Anaheim and Boston. I think the pitching is just a
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: disaster in that game for the most part. We're on
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: Minnesota first five in the return of Joe Ryan, fading
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: Detroit in what I think is a bad spot and
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: taking advantage of the only team that destroys Troy Melton
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: is Minnesota. So I like that. And we're also going
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: to be on the Chase Burns first five play again.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: I really like the price on this, man. Getting Burns
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: is that much of an underdog in the first five.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: Let's do it. Let's get back on track, man. Let's
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: get some fucking wins here. This has been bad recently.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 4: We got to get back on track. That's going to
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: do it. We're going to get back on track with football.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: I already got ideas for week two. I mean, week
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: two was always way better for me than week one.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: I mean, it couldn't be worse than week one going 0-3.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: We're not going to do that bad again unless we
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: go 0-4, but I don't think that's going to happen.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: I got some ideas already. I mean, you know me.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: The situation is really arising. Everybody overreacts to what happened
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: in week one. So week two sets up some nice opportunities.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it, though. Thanks, guys. Have a
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: good Labor Day. I got to get out of here.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: It's almost cookout time. Let's do it. Eat some burgers
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: and dogs, baby, while it's still warm-ish out. It'll still
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: be around 70 degrees here, so it'll be nice. That's
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 4: going to do it.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: to lose this round alone.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: On, not tonight.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: Out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: The crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: Guitar solo Thank you.