Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Small Ball | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football | 9/19/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Small Ball | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football | 9/19/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on, hold on Not.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Tonight, not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: fella fights hard But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. Saturday,
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: September 19th. Go check out the football show. I'm on
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: no sleep.
• 1:39
  Speaker 6: I did football late last night. I gave up four
• 1:42
  Speaker 6: plays on that show. I'll reiterate them on this show today.
• 1:47
  Speaker 6: One of them goes at noon, so go check that out.
• 1:49
  Speaker 6: I had a somewhat strong lean in the 11.30 a.m.
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: Game as well, so go check that out.
• 1:55
  Speaker 6: Hopefully this show is done before that so I can
• 1:58
  Speaker 6: get my picks in order here for my pick-ems that
• 2:02
  Speaker 6: I'm in and whatever.
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: Let's do this, man. The show's going to be baseball
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: and WNBA. I don't like anything.
• 2:09
  Speaker 6: Anything that I'm seeing on this board here, really. I'm
• 2:11
  Speaker 6: giving out one baseball player.
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: That is it. Garrett, what's up?
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Mr.
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: Pinsey, thanks for hanging out, everybody.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:21
  Speaker 6: Oh, we did win yesterday with Washington. I forgot to
• 2:23
  Speaker 6: mention that. 1-0 on the show yesterday. Washington Nationals, first five.
• 2:28
  Speaker 6: They were up 8-0 at the end of five, so
• 2:31
  Speaker 6: it was an easy win.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: I mean, what else can you say? It was the
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: right call.
• 2:35
  Speaker 6: They had the pitching matchup edge big time. it wasn't
• 2:39
  Speaker 6: as crazy as it looked because Washington did score more
• 2:42
  Speaker 6: runs than they had more runs than hits. So they
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: scored more runs than they probably should have, but they
• 2:48
  Speaker 6: still won that game legitimately regardless. They wound up winning
• 2:51
  Speaker 6: the full game as well.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: Nine to one.
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: I think it wasn't as lopsided as the score made
• 2:57
  Speaker 6: it look, but yeah, they definitely were winning play.
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: And the right side and that one. So, all right.
• 3:02
  Speaker 6: Um, 210 Eastern is the first game of baseball. Baseball,
• 3:06
  Speaker 6: I'm used to afternoon baseball on Saturday, man, but there
• 3:09
  Speaker 6: isn't really that much of it. It's mostly evening baseball here,
• 3:13
  Speaker 6: but the first afternoon game is Detroit and the White Sox.
• 3:18
  Speaker 6: White Sox are still in a battle trying to win
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: the AL Central. They're one game behind Cleveland still. Detroit
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: won the game yesterday, so these teams have split the
• 3:26
  Speaker 6: series so far. Both teams are putting in effort in
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: this series. I think that's pretty obvious. Big divisional series
• 3:33
  Speaker 6: for Detroit. At the very least, they get a chance
• 3:35
  Speaker 6: to maybe spoil Chicago's season if they can. The White
• 3:40
  Speaker 6: Sox used a ton of relief pitchers yesterday.
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: They used six. Detroit used five.
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: It makes it look like it was an extra inning game,
• 3:46
  Speaker 6: but it was not. Both teams just used a lot
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: of bullpen arms yesterday. As far as these bullpens, I do.
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: Not have this arranged by whip right now. Here it is.
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: They're both decent bullpens.
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: Detroit's number 13, the White Sox number 16, arranged by whips,
• 4:02
  Speaker 6: so the bullpen battle.
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: Is close here.
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: Detroit's number 15 in offense. They've been moving back up
• 4:09
  Speaker 6: offensively recently. Chicago is number 12, tied with the Yankees.
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: Jackson Jobe getting the start for Detroit here. On the surface,
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: it looks like he is not the better of these
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: two pitchers, but Current form, I think, would favor him here.
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: He's got a 3.89 ERA, 1.27 whip. He's pretty good
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: on the road, 3.1 road ERA. His last two starts
• 4:33
  Speaker 6: were both really good. He had a lot of strikeouts there.
• 4:36
  Speaker 6: But how much do you take away from that when
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: they were against Cleveland and at home against Colorado, where
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: Colorado does.
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: Not hit as well on the road? I'm not so sure, man.
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: Also, Jobe did face the White Sox once this year
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: at home, and he was awful in that start. It
• 4:52
  Speaker 6: was his worst start of the season, but it was
• 4:56
  Speaker 6: only his second start of the season, though, so I
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: don't know. What do you want to take away from that?
• 5:00
  Speaker 6: His hit rate is not great. His walk rate's fine,
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: I guess. His strikeout rate's pretty good. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, 8.8
• 5:07
  Speaker 6: case per nine.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: Pretty mediocre.
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: Numbers there and again his numbers are not good against
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: the White Sox as you could expect.
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: Because the majority of this is that one start that
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: he had.
• 5:18
  Speaker 6: That was not good 27 at bats 370 average 1137
• 5:22
  Speaker 6: OPS 5 to 2 strikeout walk ratio I don't really
• 5:28
  Speaker 6: expect Jobe to actually do that well here I mean
• 5:30
  Speaker 6: it looks like it's not the greatest matchup for him
• 5:32
  Speaker 6: I don't really trust him Sean Burke is on the
• 5:35
  Speaker 6: other side for the White Sox. Good season for him,
• 5:38
  Speaker 6: but he has not been as good recently. 3.47 ERA, 1.2 whip.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: I think maybe he's.
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: Kind of wearing down towards the end of the season
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: because he's pretty young and has not thrown this many
• 5:48
  Speaker 6: innings before. He hasn't been as good at home, 4.14
• 5:51
  Speaker 6: home ERA, so he's in the bad home road split here.
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: He did have a decent start last time out against Cleveland,
• 5:59
  Speaker 6: a good bounce back, I guess, from a horrendous start
• 6:02
  Speaker 6: against Pittsburgh the game before that, but he's not going
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: as deep into his outings right now. His current form
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: doesn't really look good to me. 12-8 strikeout walk ratio
• 6:11
  Speaker 6: this month, that's not good. Overall in the season, pretty
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: good hit rate here. Walk rate is a little bit
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: too high. Strikeout rate is pretty good, though. Three strikeout
• 6:22
  Speaker 6: walk ratio, I mean, I wouldn't.
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: Complain about that. That's not bad.
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: 9.7 Ks per nine is pretty good as well. So
• 6:29
  Speaker 6: his season's been good, but he's not as good recently.
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: He is decent against Detroit, usually.
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: 52 career at-bats, 250 average, 712 OPS, 8.6 strikeout walk
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: ratio is not good. Last time he faced Detroit at Detroit,
• 6:44
  Speaker 6: he actually did not do well. Gave up four runs
• 6:47
  Speaker 6: in four and a third innings. And I believe he
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: faced them earlier this year. Yeah, he faced them earlier
• 6:51
  Speaker 6: this year at home, and he was fairly good in
• 6:53
  Speaker 6: that start.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: So.
• 6:56
  Speaker 6: Do what you want with all that info, but I
• 6:57
  Speaker 6: don't know. I'm thinking this game might make more sense
• 7:00
  Speaker 6: as an over. I struggle with a lot of these
• 7:03
  Speaker 6: games today. I mean, there's not a lot that I
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: like on this board whatsoever. The money doesn't even agree
• 7:09
  Speaker 6: with this. 89% of the tickets, 87% of the cash
• 7:12
  Speaker 6: on the over.
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: Public over with less money on it. The total's eight.
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: So it's not a high total in this game. So
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: the odds maker's I think it's going to be more
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: of a low-scoring game. I guess maybe because both pitchers
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: have decent season-long numbers, but I don't know, man. Between
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: Job's bad matchup numbers and Burke not being in good
• 7:33
  Speaker 6: form and the bullpens being very taxed here, it seems
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: like a little bit more of an over to me,
• 7:40
  Speaker 6: but I have not much else on that game. Possibly
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: the White Sox would be a way to look at
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: this game too. That was my thought when I first
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: looked at this. The money's not agreeing with it at all, though.
• 7:51
  Speaker 6: 67% of tickets on the White Sox, 74% of the
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: cash on Detroit. But Burke does at least have the
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: matchup edge here, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, we saw that already.
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: So the money's not agreeing with it, though. The money's
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: coming in on Detroit. I think it's more like Chicago's
• 8:07
  Speaker 6: in the must-wins. You have to pay more for them.
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: So you're getting charged extra if you want to back Chicago, basically.
• 8:14
  Speaker 6: Minus $ 130- something is the money line there. Maybe a little
• 8:17
  Speaker 6: bit too high of a price given... what the matchup
• 8:20
  Speaker 6: looks like here. My thoughts are not strong on that.
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: Charles, what's up? Embo, what's up, man? Yeah, Joven, yes.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: Is that an I love you, man?
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: I just went to the two Rush shows in Boston
• 8:42
  Speaker 6: last week or about a week ago.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: William Phelps, one of the founders of Dorchester. All right.
• 8:54
  Speaker 6: I do not know of his name, but I know Dorchester.
• 8:58
  Speaker 6: I'm not that far away from it, kid.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: All right. Milwaukee and Baltimore.
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: This game did go over yesterday, and that was my lean,
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: but it took extra innings sort of to do it.
• 9:10
  Speaker 6: It was 5-5 at the end of nine, though, so
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: there was only one run scored in extra innings.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: The Brewers.
• 9:15
  Speaker 6: scored the one run in extra innings and wound up
• 9:17
  Speaker 6: winning the game that way. But four runs scored in
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: the ninth inning, too, though. So it did go over,
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: but it was maybe a little bit of a questionable
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: lean for me there, but not a play for me.
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: Baltimore might have a little bit more motivation here.
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee, the thing that they're playing for is the number
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: one seed in the NL, and I don't know how
• 9:40
  Speaker 6: much that really matters. Baltimore's trying to stay alive in
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: the playoff race. Baltimore used seven relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: that's not good. Milwaukee has the better bullpen.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: They used six.
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: I mean, given that it was only a 10-inning game,
• 9:53
  Speaker 6: that is a lot of bullpen usage, man.
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: So I don't love either bullpen setup in this one
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: to me.
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: Honest, even though Milwaukee is the better.
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: Of the two.
• 10:03
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee's number eight in bullpen. Baltimore number 10, but Milwaukee
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: definitely is the better bullpen. Their ERA is almost half
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: a run better. Milwaukee's the better offense.
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: They're number four.
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: Baltimore number 20, tied with Kansas City and Arizona.
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: Not really a good sign.
• 10:20
  Speaker 6: Robert Gasser is pitching for Milwaukee, 4.3 ERA, 1.27 whip,
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: really mediocre numbers, not good on the road, 5.01 road ERA.
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: Pretty good in his last start against the Reds, but
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: that's a Reds team that just can't hit. He failed
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: to make it five innings in his prior two starts,
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: which were both against the Cubs. He's not allowing many runs,
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: but he's not going deep into these outings. His hit
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: rate is, well, not one per inning, but it's somewhat close.
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: It's not great. His strikeout rate's all right. His walk
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: rate's all right.
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: He's got a three strikeout walk ratio, so again, that's
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: not too bad. 8.6 strikeout per nine. Those numbers are
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: not bad, and Baltimore is unfamiliar with him, and I
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: do talk about that when a young pitcher has some talent.
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: A lot of times, being unfamiliar to the opposing offense
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: will be an extra advantage to them. I'm still not
• 11:10
  Speaker 6: so sure I want to trust Gasser, though. He's definitely
• 11:12
  Speaker 6: not one of the better pitchers that Milwaukee has at
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: this point, and Not good on the road, so maybe
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: the unfamiliarity won't help him enough here. I think Trevor
• 11:21
  Speaker 6: Rogers is the better of the two starters here. He's
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: more proven, at least. He's proven himself with Baltimore over
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: the last two seasons. Turned his season around this year,
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: and he's had a decent one overall. 4.22 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: He's been a little bit better at home. 4.01 home ERA.
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: He is in pretty good form right now, especially a
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: 22-to-1 strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: His command numbers have been excellent. over the last couple months.
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: So he's in pretty good form, even though he did
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: a lot of four runs last time out against a
• 11:52
  Speaker 6: bad Toronto lineup.
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: But he's still commanding.
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: His pitch as well, it looks like here. So I
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: think he's in good form. He has been a little
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: bit too hittable this year, though. But he doesn't walk, guys.
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate's all right. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio is
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: definitely not bad. 8.2 Ks per nine is also not
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: too bad.
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: Rodgers against Milwaukee. is sort of on the negative side, though.
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: 33 at-bats, 273 average allowed, 769 OPS, 8-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: These numbers are not horrible for him, but they're a
• 12:26
  Speaker 6: little bit in favor of Milwaukee against him here.
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: So I think this could be an over again as well.
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: I mean, again, you've got bullpens that look like they're
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: kind of fadable with how used they are. The total's
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: at 7.5 or 8. So, again, the oddsmakers are telling
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: you they think it's going to be a low-scoring game.
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: I'm not so sure about that. I don't think I
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: trust these pitchers enough, man. So I think maybe the
• 12:49
  Speaker 6: over is.
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: The lean here.
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: 81% of tickets, 89% of the cash on the over.
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: I'm not seeing the board well today, man, just to
• 12:56
  Speaker 6: warn you. These are not strong opinions at all for me.
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: And it looks like the market is strongly indicating towards
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: Baltimore in this game. 73% of tickets, 51% of the
• 13:07
  Speaker 6: cash on Milwaukee. Milwaukee's about a minus 130 favorite. I
• 13:11
  Speaker 6: think I probably do agree with Baltimore here. I mean,
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: I think you might be getting the better starter with
• 13:17
  Speaker 6: rogers although his matchup numbers are not really.
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: Great i.
• 13:20
  Speaker 6: Think i would trust him over gasser though uh and
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: you're getting him as an underdog basically although i would
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: say you'd have to go first five with baltimore because
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: they're not gonna have a bullpen advantage here so first
• 13:33
  Speaker 6: five baltimore makes some sense here it'll probably be a
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: little bit closer to a pick'em price if you do
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: that but milwaukee really doesn't have that much to play
• 13:40
  Speaker 6: for so they're I mean, they're headed to the playoffs, man.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: They're going to be one of the top two seeds
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: in the NL. That's just how it is. Yeah, whereas
• 13:51
  Speaker 6: Baltimore is in desperation mode, fighting to make the playoffs.
• 13:54
  Speaker 6: And getting a team like that as a home underdog
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: a lot of times is.
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: The way to go. All right.
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: And, yeah, I mean, Gasser probably just shouldn't be favored
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: like that on the road, really. Boston at Tampa Bay.
• 14:08
  Speaker 6: The Red Sox got the win yesterday, 4-2-2. some good
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: pitching out of the Red Sox yesterday. Suarez was pretty
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: good in the game. Bullpen held up pretty well as well.
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: Some bad fielding in the ninth inning when Tampa scored
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: one more run there against Miller. It wasn't really Miller's fault.
• 14:26
  Speaker 6: The fielding was pretty awful behind him for whatever reason.
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: But anyway, as I pointed out, Tampa is a very
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: good home team. Tampa's still trying to make sure that
• 14:35
  Speaker 6: they stay ahead of the Yankees here, which I keep
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: thinking they might not. So they lost one game against
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: the Yankees yesterday because of the Red Sox beating them.
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: But the Red Sox are pretty much locked into the
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: number two wildcard spot at this point.
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: Will Tampa turn it around and win today?
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: They might, because it was supposed to be Peyton Tolley
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: in this game, but the Red Sox, I think, are
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: pushing him back because they don't want to overwork him
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: or whatever, so it is not going to be Tolley
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: in this game today. He also doesn't have good numbers
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: against Tampa, by the way. which kind of surprised me
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: because he pitched against them twice this year, and he
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: wasn't bad in those starts.
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: So I don't know. Maybe he faced them.
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: Last year because I think Tully did pitch a very
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: little bit last year, although he's considered a rookie this year.
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: But whatever. He's not pitching today. I don't think at least.
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay used three relief pitchers yesterday. The Red Sox
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: also used three. The Red Sox have the better bullpen,
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: even though Slayton is out for the year at this point.
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: Guerrero is supposed to come back, although he's still on
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: the DL right now.
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox are the number one.
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: Bullpen in whip uh atlanta is or excuse me tampa
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: is tied with atlanta and the yankees and whip but
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: tampa's got the worst era out of all of them
• 15:43
  Speaker 6: so technically i guess they're ranked fourth right now do
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: what you want with that but the red sox have
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: the somewhat better bullpen tampa's the better offense they're number
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: seven red sox number 10 tied with atlanta both teams
• 15:57
  Speaker 6: are capable of putting up some.
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: Runs though but it.
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: For all Red Sox fans here, that is not good. Bayo,
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: the experiment has not worked, man.
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: What can I say?
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: He had most of the season, he was just way
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: better as a relief pitcher than as a starter. But
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: then he started not doing well as a relief pitcher
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: as well. So what can we say about him other
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: than he's not good? 4.74 ERA, 1.43 whip. That's not good.
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: He's not good on the road. 5.53 road ERA.
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: He's coming off an appearance that I think was a
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: bullpen appearance where he Did have a one and two-thirds
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: inning shutout performance against Texas. And he hasn't allowed a
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: run in his last six and two-thirds inning, so there
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: is that, I guess. So he pitched well in his
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: last two outings, at least, against Anaheim and Texas. I mean,
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: those are offenses that are not as good as Tampa.
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: Baio has a high hit rate. His walk rate is
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: actually down this year, and the walks have been one
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: of his main issues. So he has kind of fixed that,
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: but he's also just not striking anybody out. He's a
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: pretty extreme ground ball pitcher. Which can kind of mask
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: some of your other deficiencies. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio, not good. 6.8
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: Ks per 9 is not good either. Bayo against the Rays,
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: they've hit him for a lot of contact, although not
• 17:17
  Speaker 6: a lot of power. They have 96 at-bats against him,
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: which is a lot. 19-8 strike-out walk ratio is not
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: a very good ratio for him. 292 batting average is
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: very high against him, but they only have a 686
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: OPS against him. They only have four extra base hits,
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: all doubles, so their OPS is not good, but they
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: have definitely hit him for contact and put guys on
• 17:37
  Speaker 6: base against him. Freddy Peralta is getting the start for Tampa.
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: Not a good season for him, pitching with the Mets,
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: but he's definitely pitching better recently, and I thought being
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: traded to a contending team would help him, and it
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: seems like that is true. 4.67 ERA, 1.34 whip overall.
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: Obviously not great here, but he's been a good home
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: pitcher this year. 3.66 home ERA. And like I said,
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: he's pitching well recently. Tampa Bay has won his last
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: four starts. He's allowed no more than one run in
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: any of them. Two of them were shutouts. Last time out,
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: he had a no-hitter through five innings.
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: And they took him out of the game.
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: We had a win with him on the show, I think,
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: in the previous game against Atlanta. He's pitching a lot
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: better right now, and we knew he was capable of
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: pitching a lot better than what he was doing with
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: the Mets because we've seen what his career looked like
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: with Milwaukee, and he was pretty good. But yeah, since
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: he's joined Tampa, he had a couple of bad starts
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: early on, but he's completely turned it around. Four really
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: good starts in a row, so he's definitely in good
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: form right now. Overall, his hit rate is just okay.
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is not great. Has allowed too many
• 18:44
  Speaker 6: home runs this year, and his strikeout rate is mediocre.
• 18:47
  Speaker 6: But again, everything's getting better pretty much with Tampa, though. 2.5
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio on the season is not good, but
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: it's better since he's been on Tampa. 8.3 strikeout per
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: nine overall, and actually his strikeout rate has gone down
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: with Tampa, but everything else about how he's pitching is better, so...
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: I think Tampa Bay's pitching coaches probably saw something and
• 19:08
  Speaker 6: tweaked what he's doing. And it seems like it's worked
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: out for the better. Peralta has not been good against
• 19:13
  Speaker 6: the Red Sox though. In 65 at bats, 277 average allowed,
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: 866 OPS, 18 to 10 strikeout walk ratio. So that's
• 19:22
  Speaker 6: not good. So it's like, well, where do we go here?
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: Do we weigh current form or do we weigh matchup numbers?
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: Uh, The money is coming in on Tampa, so it
• 19:33
  Speaker 6: looks like the professional money is saying current form and
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: that Peralta's just better than Bayo, which I probably agree
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: with that.
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, I definitely agree with that.
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: 60% of tickets are on the Red Sox, 78% of
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: the cash on Tampa. I probably do agree with Tampa.
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: I think if you play Tampa, you've got to play
• 19:49
  Speaker 6: them first five. though, because I would not want to
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: fade the Red Sox bullpen, really. You have to lay
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: probably about a half run with Tampa Bay in the
• 19:59
  Speaker 6: first five, though, if you do that, because they're about
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: minus 150. So I think that is maybe the better
• 20:04
  Speaker 6: way to play this, though. And I think I would
• 20:06
  Speaker 6: lean over, but it's another game with a low total
• 20:09
  Speaker 6: where I just don't like the under. The total is
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: at 7.5, so it's supposed to be a low-scoring game,
• 20:14
  Speaker 6: but that might have been when it was totally against Peralta,
• 20:18
  Speaker 6: but it is not now. It's Bayo against Peralta. Peralta's
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: got bad matchup numbers. Bayo's just bad.
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 20:27
  Speaker 6: I see this being more of an over game, but
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: probably the better way to look at.
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: This is to play the.
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: The Tampa Bay first five inning run line. All right.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: What?
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: Can you not read my hat? I've worn this hat many,
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: many times on the show, man. There it is. Let's go.
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: Um, No, you should not like overs. If you want
• 21:05
  Speaker 6: to be winning better, unders cash more than overs do.
• 21:10
  Speaker 6: That's the way that it is. The public plays overs.
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: The overs are square pretty much. I will play overs
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: when I think that it's right, and I've given out
• 21:20
  Speaker 6: at least three of them within the last week or so,
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: which I think all hit, or maybe one of them didn't.
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but whatever. It's all about the spot,
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: but no. Unders... Overs are the square way to look.
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: Overs and favorites.
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: That's what the public likes. So I tend to not
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: have as many of those.
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: All right. Philadelphia and the Mets. I was correct about.
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: The Mets winning yesterday. They broke a long losing streak.
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: So they've lost five games in a row. And a
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: lot of times when a team breaks a losing streak,
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: they'll have new positive momentum moving forwards. That could be
• 21:56
  Speaker 6: a good thing for the Mets here. I think the
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: pitching matchup actually probably does favor the Mets here in
• 22:01
  Speaker 6: this game. People are going to look at this, and
• 22:03
  Speaker 6: yet again, I'm going to say the same thing I've
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: been saying for a week now. Why are the Mets
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: favored in this game against a team that has a
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: better record than they do? The public's going to look
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: at that and think, oh, I get Philly as an
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: underdog here. Let's take them. But I think that might
• 22:17
  Speaker 6: not be the right approach. The Mets minus 124 here.
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: They're favored for a reason. The odds makers are telling
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: you they're supposed to win. Although, in this case, it
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: looks like the money is coming in on Philly. And
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: there are some reasons to maybe not want the Mets here.
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: 61% of tickets, 91% of the cash on Philly. Looking
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: at the bullpens, the Mets do have the better bullpen.
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: The Mets used two guys out of the bullpen in
• 22:41
  Speaker 6: yesterday's game.
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: Philly used three. Mets definitely have the better bullpen. They're
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: number six. Their ERA is.
• 22:47
  Speaker 6: Significantly better than the Phillies. Phillies number 18. The Mets
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: are a terrible offense, though. Number 25. Philly has not
• 22:55
  Speaker 6: been much better, though, at number 23. And Philly's not
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: that good on the road. Philly's going with Andrew Painter here.
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: He's really kind of the question mark in this game. Like,
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: how do we determine what he's going to do in
• 23:08
  Speaker 6: this game?
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: He's a rookie. His season has not gone that well.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: 5.54 ERA.
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: 1.44 whip, although he's actually a little bit better on
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: the road. 5.05 road ERA. And as I pointed out
• 23:20
  Speaker 6: not too long ago, they send him to the minors.
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: in like mid June and didn't bring them up until
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: the end of July. And he was pitching a lot
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: better since then. He's had basically two bad starts since then.
• 23:32
  Speaker 6: So the majority of his starts since then have been good.
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: And Philly has won the majority of his starts since then.
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: So he's definitely pitching better. Although his walk rate in
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: his last start is a little bit concerning, but I
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: think painter where he was like a, like complete fade
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: early this season. He's not really that right now. He's
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: not that bad right now. His hit rate is still
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: too high in the season. His walk rate's not great either.
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is a little bit low as well.
• 23:57
  Speaker 6: So those numbers season-long don't look good. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio, 7.8
• 24:02
  Speaker 6: strikeout per nine. Those are not great numbers. So I
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: don't know if Painter is ever really going to be
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: that good. But the Mets haven't seen him yet. Even
• 24:10
  Speaker 6: though they're in the same division as him, he just
• 24:12
  Speaker 6: hasn't faced them ever. Uh, so he might have a
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: little bit of an unfamiliarity edge here against the Mets.
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: That could be an edge to a pitcher, at least
• 24:21
  Speaker 6: if he's pitching well, where the offense on the other
• 24:24
  Speaker 6: side has to figure him out on the fly. Christian
• 24:27
  Speaker 6: Scott is pitching for the Mets. I backed him on
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: the show a couple of times this year.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good.
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: 3.76 ERA, 1.26 whip. You'd like to see that be lower,
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: but it's not awful. 3.61 home ERA, so he's a
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: little bit better at home. He's coming off a really
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: nice start against the Yankees, where he got no run support,
• 24:45
  Speaker 6: and they lost the game anyway. Pitched pretty well in
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: the previous start, too, although didn't go deep into the start.
• 24:50
  Speaker 6: He was inefficient in his start against San Francisco, but
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: he still struck out a.
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: Ton of guys.
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: So his strikeout rate's been good recently. In August, he
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: was walking way too many guys, though. September, not so much, though.
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: So what do we do with him? He's a little
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: bit all over the map here. He does have a
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: low hit rate. His walk rate is too high. His
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate is really high as well. And with these
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: young guys, you do like to see a strikeout rate
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: be really high, in this case 10.9, because it means
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: he's missing bats and he's fooling hitters. That's good. The
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: advanced analytics like that as well. His issue is he's wild,
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: so he's got to fix the walk issue. 2.8 strikeout
• 25:28
  Speaker 6: walk ratio. But overall, I think Scott's a pretty talented pitcher,
• 25:32
  Speaker 6: and he does have good numbers against Philly when he's
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: faced them.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: 38 career bats.
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: I think he faced them twice this year, and he
• 25:38
  Speaker 6: was all right both times, if I'm not mistaken. 11 strikeouts,
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: two walks, 211 average allowed, 592 OPS.
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: So those are good numbers.
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: Yeah, he had a five and two-thirds inning shutout against
• 25:49
  Speaker 6: them on the road with no walks. And then actually,
• 25:52
  Speaker 6: he wasn't that good against them in his home start
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: here back in June.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: He was.
• 25:56
  Speaker 6: inefficient, didn't make it five innings in that one, so
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: that start wasn't really that good, but his matchup.
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: Numbers are pretty good here.
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: I think it's another lean for me to the Mets
• 26:05
  Speaker 6: in this one, but the money's not agreeing with me. 61%,
• 26:07
  Speaker 6: or I already said, 61% of tickets, 93% of the
• 26:11
  Speaker 6: cash on Philly.
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I just disagree with it. It's not a play
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: for me.
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: I think I felt stronger about the Mets in the
• 26:18
  Speaker 6: last two games than in this game, but the Mets
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: have their three best pitchers all pitching in this series,
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: so And they're all young. McLean, Thornton, who got the
• 26:28
  Speaker 6: win yesterday, I'm pretty sure, and then Scott. So the
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: pitching rotation is set up well for the Mets in
• 26:34
  Speaker 6: this series, at the very least.
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: This could be an under.
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: I mean, Painter is pitching better recently. He's unfamiliar to
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: the opposing offense. Scott is pretty good and has good
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: numbers against Philly. Totals at eight. The bullpens may be
• 26:49
  Speaker 6: able to hold up here. At least they're rested, and
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: you have one good bullpen, at least with the Mets.
• 26:53
  Speaker 6: Phillies isn't so bad that you have to, like, completely
• 26:55
  Speaker 6: avoid them. So, yeah, I think the under is a
• 26:58
  Speaker 6: way to look in this game as well. But the
• 27:00
  Speaker 6: money is coming in on the over in that one.
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: So I'm not agreeing with the market on anything, man.
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: I think I am agreeing with it on the football
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: stuff that I have. But baseball is just a totally
• 27:08
  Speaker 6: different handicap, dude. It's just it messes with your mind
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: a lot. A's in Cleveland, and it's mostly because the
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: pitching matchups, I think, matter. And that kind of takes
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: away from the situational aspects of it. Cleveland's playing well
• 27:22
  Speaker 6: right now. They've won three games in a row. They're,
• 27:25
  Speaker 6: at least so far, taking advantage of playing a bad
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: A's team as Cleveland got the win yesterday. And they
• 27:31
  Speaker 6: were able to cover, if you laid like the minus
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: one run line or whatever, minus one and a half even,
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: you covered that barely yesterday. Cleveland remains atop the AL
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: Central for the time being. They got to keep winning,
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: whereas the A's... Don't really have that much motivation left here.
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: Do they care about playing spoiler against Cleveland? I don't know.
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: Probably not really.
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: And this should be a pitching matchup that favors Cleveland
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: in this game as well. Just generally, they have the
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: better pitcher on the mound. The A's bullpen is also awful.
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: They used four guys yesterday. Cleveland has the better bullpen.
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: They used three guys. Cleveland is the number nine bullpen
• 28:10
  Speaker 6: right now.
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: A's are... ranked 28th, but again, they're the worst bullpen
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: in baseball.
• 28:16
  Speaker 6: I'm going to keep saying it. Cleveland is not a
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: good offense. They're number 29. The A's are number 16,
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: so the A's have the better offense, although they've been
• 28:24
  Speaker 6: not so good for a while now. Jacob Lopez getting
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: the start for the A's.
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: He's not good.
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: 5.02 ERA, 1.48 whip, not very good. He's a very
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: streaky pitcher, though. Like, he was pretty bad most of
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: the season, but recently he went on this nice stretch
• 28:40
  Speaker 6: where he was pitching well. I think that stretch has subsided,
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: although he is better on the road. which makes sense
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: because the A's stadium usually destroys pitchers. He's got a 4.37
• 28:50
  Speaker 6: road ERA, so at least that's more tolerable. But like
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: I said, his hot streak has kind of ended. His
• 28:56
  Speaker 6: last two starts were not good. He had one strikeout
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: and gave up four runs against a bad Toronto lineup
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: and then against a bad Seattle lineup. He got mashed
• 29:05
  Speaker 6: in that game, although both of those starts.
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: Were at home.
• 29:07
  Speaker 6: So maybe you shouldn't totally read into that because his
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: last couple road starts were good. He's had three good
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: road starts in a row. His hit rate's too high, though.
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: It's not great.
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: His walk rate's not good either. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 29:22
  Speaker 6: He's mostly a breaking ball pitcher. He has a really
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: crazy curveball that's his best pitch. He's not a hard thrower.
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: He's got a 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, which is not good.
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: He's got to command that curve, man. Command your woman's curves. 8.4
• 29:42
  Speaker 6: strikeout per nine, I mean, which is an all right number.
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: Lopez is not good against Cleveland, even though their offense
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: is bad. They've been able to get to him in
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: 27 at-bats, 296 average, 914 OPS allowed. Those numbers are
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: not good. Tanner Bybee is pitching for Cleveland, he is
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: the better of the two pitchers. 4.16 ERA doesn't exactly
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: look great, but a 1.18 whip is not that bad.
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: He's consistent, pretty much. I mean, he's got really similar
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: home and road numbers. Was good last time out at Minnesota,
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: although the previous two starts actually both went poorly for him.
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: But I think he's all right, even though, yeah, his
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: recent numbers are not great here. I guess 12 to
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: 8 strikeout walk ratio this month. He's got a pretty
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: low hit rate here, which is good. His walk rate
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: is not too good, though. Strikeout rate is also pretty low,
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: so that's not good. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is a
• 30:37
  Speaker 6: little bit worse than what he's done in the past, which.
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: Is not great.
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: 7.1 strikeout per nine, same deal there. His numbers against
• 30:44
  Speaker 6: the A's are... A little bit hard to read with
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: 35 at-bats here. Most of their hitters have faced him.
• 30:50
  Speaker 6: Ten strikeouts, one walk. That is a good ratio, but
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: a 314 average allowed. That is very high. A lot
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: of the damage coming from Butler and Gelof.
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: Gelof?
• 31:00
  Speaker 6: I don't know how you pronounce these guys' names. I
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: know how to pronounce Butler, all right? 670, unless he
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: pronounces it in some weird way.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: No.
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: 676 OPS allowed isn't bad, though. They only have one
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: extra base hit against Bybee. A double from Gelof. What
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: do we do with this game, man? I mean, Cleveland
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: is the more motivated team, and they have the better
• 31:19
  Speaker 6: starter on the mound, but the thing is, everybody knows this.
• 31:22
  Speaker 6: You have to lay minus 180 if you want Cleveland here,
• 31:26
  Speaker 6: and the money's coming in against them. 92% of tickets,
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: 78% of the cash on them. I still think Cleveland
• 31:32
  Speaker 6: is the right side here, though. Like I said yesterday,
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: I expect that they will win this game somehow. I
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: think they have the better starter, and they do have
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: the better bullpen here, so... That makes sense to look
• 31:43
  Speaker 6: at Cleveland maybe on the run line again. You're making
• 31:46
  Speaker 6: a minus one run line just to get the price down.
• 31:48
  Speaker 6: And then as long as they win, you won't lose money.
• 31:51
  Speaker 6: But maybe the better way to play this is the over.
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: I mean, we just saw neither pitcher really has great
• 31:55
  Speaker 6: matchup numbers here. Even though Lopez is in the better
• 31:59
  Speaker 6: of his home road splits here, and Bybee's OPS against
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: is not bad. But the money is slightly indicating on
• 32:05
  Speaker 6: the over. 53% of tickets, 63% of the cash on
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: the over. The first market read that I actually really
• 32:10
  Speaker 6: agree with. The total is kind of low, though, at eight.
• 32:14
  Speaker 6: But some of that is just because Cleveland's offense is pathetic.
• 32:17
  Speaker 6: But they might be able to do something against a
• 32:19
  Speaker 6: pitcher they usually hit well. Or at least they have
• 32:22
  Speaker 6: in a somewhat small sample size. So yeah, I think
• 32:25
  Speaker 6: the over maybe makes some sense there in that one.
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: Well, they're going to have to wait. The A's are
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: not moving yet. They're in the stadium again next year.
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: They're not going to be in Vegas until at least 2028.
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: So good luck with that. Yes, correct. Sydney Sweeney, she
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: has a boyfriend. All right.
• 32:52
  Speaker 6: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati. I like her ads, though. Cincinnati
• 32:58
  Speaker 6: won yesterday, 6-4. So Cincinnati, they're at least showing up,
• 33:02
  Speaker 6: it looks like, for this series, trying to get some
• 33:05
  Speaker 6: wins here against a divisional opponent.
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: That's better than they are.
• 33:09
  Speaker 6: Chicago doesn't have a ton to play for here, really,
• 33:11
  Speaker 6: because they're pretty much locked into one of those two.
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: Wild card spots.
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: The thing is, though, probably ideally for them, they'd want
• 33:18
  Speaker 6: to get home advantage, though, against Philly. that series because
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: it's pretty much inevitable that that is going to be
• 33:24
  Speaker 6: the wild card series there between Chicago and Philly but
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: yeah it's it's up in the air which team is
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: going to host it right now uh so that is
• 33:33
  Speaker 6: the uh the motivation if there is any for both
• 33:35
  Speaker 6: those two teams I should have mentioned it with Philly
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: as well the Cubs only use one relief pitcher in
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: the last two days because I think they might have
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: been off on Thursday so they have a very rested
• 33:44
  Speaker 6: Bullpen here, and they're better than the Reds' bullpen. The
• 33:47
  Speaker 6: Reds used four guys yesterday and played the day before that,
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: so the Cubs definitely have a bullpen advantage here. They're
• 33:54
  Speaker 6: number 15 in bullpen. The Reds are number 25. Cubs
• 33:58
  Speaker 6: are the number one offense still. They've been very good
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: in that department. The Reds have not at all. The
• 34:03
  Speaker 6: Reds are number 24, and for whatever reason, the Reds
• 34:06
  Speaker 6: have not hit well at home either, even though it
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: is a hitter-friendly ballpark here. So the Cubs have a
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: lot of advantages here. Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs.
• 34:16
  Speaker 6: He's all right, 4.16 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: He's significantly better on the road.
• 34:23
  Speaker 6: His road ERA is over two runs better than it
• 34:26
  Speaker 6: is at home, so maybe it's the Wrigley wind effect
• 34:29
  Speaker 6: that's kind of fucking with him, but he's got a 2.95
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: road ERA, so he is way better on the road
• 34:34
  Speaker 6: for whatever reason. He's pitching okay recently, really mediocre, but
• 34:39
  Speaker 6: the Cubs have lost six of his starts in a row.
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: And I think we lost one in there somewhere on
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: the show. I don't remember which game it was, though. But, yeah,
• 34:48
  Speaker 6: he's not pitching that badly over most of that stretch,
• 34:51
  Speaker 6: but he's also, yeah, getting not a lot of run
• 34:54
  Speaker 6: support here, and occasionally the bullpen isn't backing him up
• 34:56
  Speaker 6: that well.
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: I think he's a decent pitcher, though, and he's pretty
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: good on the road. He's got a hit rate that
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: you'd like to see be a little bit lower, but
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: it's not awful. His walk rate's fine.
• 35:07
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is low, though, so advanced analytics guys
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: come in again and– Well, definitely not like that. 2.5
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is not great. 7 strikeout per 9
• 35:18
  Speaker 6: is also not great. Boyd against the Reds is also
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: not great. In 49 at-bats, 286 average allowed, 772 OPS, 12.6
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio.
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: Those numbers are not very good.
• 35:32
  Speaker 6: So, even though Boyd seems like maybe he is the
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: way to go with this game, the Cubs seem like
• 35:38
  Speaker 6: they do have the advantageous most areas of this game
• 35:41
  Speaker 6: Boyd is better on the road and I think he
• 35:44
  Speaker 6: might still be the way to look here against Lodolo
• 35:47
  Speaker 6: I don't really want to back him with the Reds
• 35:49
  Speaker 6: being able to hit him fairly well Nick Lodolo is
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: pitching for Cincinnati this has been a pretty lost season
• 35:54
  Speaker 6: for him after he was pretty good the last couple
• 35:56
  Speaker 6: years not this year which I think some injuries have
• 36:00
  Speaker 6: kind of messed with them and he's got a 5.12
• 36:02
  Speaker 6: ERA 1.49 whip that is not good he is better
• 36:03
  Speaker 6: at home though 4.58 home ERA and He pitched reasonably
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: well last time out against the Dodgers, given that it
• 36:14
  Speaker 6: was the Dodgers, though he still walked four guys.
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: But he only gave up three.
• 36:18
  Speaker 6: Hits in seven innings, so that's not that bad. Two
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: of his last three starts have been okay, but I
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: don't know, man. I mean, he's not exactly in the
• 36:26
  Speaker 6: greatest form here, really. 15-9 strikeout walk ratio in this month,
• 36:30
  Speaker 6: that's not good. His hit rate is too high on
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: the season. His walk rate's not great. Allows a decent
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: amount of home runs, too.
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: That's not good. His strikeout rate is mediocre.
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: 1.9 strikeout walk ratio is very bad.
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: So that walk rate is a problem.
• 36:44
  Speaker 6: 7.4 strikeout per nine is really mediocre as well. So
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: Lodolo is not really done very well. He's not good
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: against the Cubs either. And 141 at bats, 298 average allowed,
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: 880 OPS, 36 to 16.
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio. I think this is an over.
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: I mean, again, feels like broken record, but it looks
• 37:05
  Speaker 6: like the public is kind of on the over to
• 37:07
  Speaker 6: 85% of tickets. 89% of the cash on the over,
• 37:11
  Speaker 6: but both pitchers have poor matchup numbers here. The total's
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: at nine, so it's expected to be a higher-scoring game
• 37:17
  Speaker 6: than most, as this is the highest total we've encountered
• 37:20
  Speaker 6: so far on the board. So the oddsmakers do seem
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: to be kind of agreeing, yeah, this is going to
• 37:25
  Speaker 6: be a high-scoring game here. I do agree with it,
• 37:29
  Speaker 6: and you have one bad bullpen out of the two
• 37:31
  Speaker 6: as well. Don't really trust either pitcher. And that's the
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: way that it is, man. I think the Cubs should
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: win this game, too, though, and bounce back after yesterday.
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: Cubs are in the minus 130-something price range, but I
• 37:42
  Speaker 6: still think Boyd has the upper hand over Lodolo. Plus,
• 37:45
  Speaker 6: you get the significantly better bullpen and offense with the
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: Cubs there. And the price is not that high on them. However,
• 37:53
  Speaker 6: it looks way too easy, right? to play the Cubs here.
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: The public is all over that. Although, again, it looks
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: like the money is also slightly indicating in that direction.
• 38:03
  Speaker 6: Now 87% of tickets, 89% of the cash on the
• 38:06
  Speaker 6: Chicago side there.
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: All right. Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
• 38:12
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh got the win yesterday in what I thought was
• 38:15
  Speaker 6: maybe a letdown spot for them, but they still won.
• 38:18
  Speaker 6: Kansas City, not good. Yesterday's game was high scoring. We
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: do have two not-so-good bullpens here. Pittsburgh's is the better
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: of the two, though. Pittsburgh used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 38:29
  Speaker 6: Kansas City used four, so Kansas City slightly less rested
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: in the bullpens as well. Pittsburgh is— where am I looking?
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: Where is Pittsburgh? number 19 in the bullpen.
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: The Royals are ranked dead last, although, again, I think
• 38:44
  Speaker 6: they're probably like the second-worst bullpen behind the A's, but still, obviously,
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh's is better. Pittsburgh's offense has been good the majority
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: of the season, number six, and they've been pretty good
• 38:55
  Speaker 6: at home. Kansas City, not as good offensively, number 20, tied, though,
• 38:59
  Speaker 6: with Arizona and Baltimore. Kansas City going with one of
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: their better pitchers here though Noah Cameron he's pretty solid
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: he was good last year he was shaky early this
• 39:09
  Speaker 6: year but he's been a lot better recently he's obviously
• 39:12
  Speaker 6: completely turned his season around 3.84 ERA 1.19 whip for
• 39:17
  Speaker 6: the season that's good he's also good on the road 3.18
• 39:20
  Speaker 6: road ERA his team has not been backing him recently
• 39:25
  Speaker 6: his last two starts were both very good against Arizona
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: and the Red Sox and his team lost both games.
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: Wasn't really his fault.
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: I mean, he did his job in those games and
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: he's the majority of his recent starts.
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: He's been good.
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: He's allowed one or zero earn runs in four of
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: his last six. And he's only allowed more than two
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: once in that span. So yeah, he's pitching well right now.
• 39:47
  Speaker 6: And the, New home stadium, well, the home stadium that
• 39:51
  Speaker 6: they redid and brought the walls in has been hurting
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: him at home, but he's on the road here today. Granted,
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh does hit well at home, though. Not an easy
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: matchup for him here in this game, but he does
• 40:01
  Speaker 6: have a pretty low hit rate here.
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate is somewhat okay.
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: 2.9 strikeout walk ratio, 8.1 strikeout per night. I mean,
• 40:10
  Speaker 6: those are not excellent numbers, but he's still pretty good.
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: Pittsburgh has not been able to hit him well. They
• 40:16
  Speaker 6: only have five hitters who have faced him, though, 12 at-bats.
• 40:19
  Speaker 6: They have two hits against him, no extra base hits.
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: Davis and Reynolds are the only hits against him. One strikeout,
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: two walks, 167 average.
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: 452 OPS against.
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: So Cameron has done well against this offense when he
• 40:32
  Speaker 6: has faced them, but they're also not that familiar with him.
• 40:35
  Speaker 6: He's better on the road. So, yeah, I do think
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: Cameron should pitch well here. Bubba Chandler on the other
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: side for Pittsburgh, I think he's more of a question
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: mark because he's He's good.
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: He's talented. He's young.
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: Happy birthday to Chandler, I guess, because he just had
• 40:48
  Speaker 6: his birthday five days ago. He's got a 4.28 ERA, 1.35 WIT,
• 40:53
  Speaker 6: mediocre stuff.
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: He's wild, dude. That's the thing.
• 40:57
  Speaker 6: He looked really good last year when he pitched, but
• 41:00
  Speaker 6: his walks have been a major issue, including his last
• 41:03
  Speaker 6: start against the Cubs. He didn't allow that many runs there,
• 41:05
  Speaker 6: but he was inefficient with his pitches, and he walked
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: way too many guys.
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: And that continues to be the case. Too many walks.
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: 15-7 strikeout walk ratio this month. Not good.
• 41:16
  Speaker 6: His hit rate is pretty good on the season. He's
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: kind of hard to hit. His walk rate is way
• 41:19
  Speaker 6: too high, though. And his strikeout rate is okay. He
• 41:23
  Speaker 6: was a better strikeout pitcher last year, too, so I
• 41:25
  Speaker 6: don't know what the deal is with that.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: But it was a small sample size last year.
• 41:28
  Speaker 6: 1.8 strikeout walk ratio. That's really bad, dude. And most
• 41:34
  Speaker 6: of it is because the walks are ridiculous. He has
• 41:37
  Speaker 6: to not walk, guys, man. I mean, get that number
• 41:40
  Speaker 6: down at least. He has one of the highest walk
• 41:42
  Speaker 6: rates in baseball probably, so he needs to fix that. 8.1
• 41:47
  Speaker 6: strikeout per nine is not too bad. Chandler has basically
• 41:50
  Speaker 6: not been seen before by the Royals. Only Isaac Collins
• 41:53
  Speaker 6: has ever faced him. He's one for two with a single,
• 41:55
  Speaker 6: no strikeouts, no walks. So Chandler does have the unfamiliarity
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: edge here in this one. Maybe there's a case for
• 42:03
  Speaker 6: a first five under here. Obviously, I would not want
• 42:05
  Speaker 6: the bullpens involved in any sort of under here, but
• 42:08
  Speaker 6: there is a case to be made for the first
• 42:09
  Speaker 6: five under. While these starting pitchers are out there, you
• 42:13
  Speaker 6: may see a lower scoring game. The oddsmakers seem to
• 42:16
  Speaker 6: kind of think so as they put up a 7.5
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: or 8 on this game, but the money is not
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: really agreeing. What else is new? 79% of tickets, 94%
• 42:25
  Speaker 6: of the cash on the over, but that's full game, remember.
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: First five under, I think, maybe is a consideration here.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: You're going to be looking at a three and a half.
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: Maybe, well, because the number's eight a lot of places,
• 42:38
  Speaker 6: you'll probably get four in the first five there, which
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: isn't too bad. So that would be one of my
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: opinions here. Perhaps the better opinion, though, is to just
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: take the Royals in the first five, though. Cameron's the
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: more proven pitcher, man. He has fewer walk issues than
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: Chandler does. And he's got more of a sample size,
• 42:55
  Speaker 6: a little bit, that we can dig into with the
• 42:56
  Speaker 6: matchup numbers.
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: And he's better on the road.
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: 77% of tickets and 69% of the cash on Pittsburgh
• 43:04
  Speaker 6: so the money is fading kind of a public Pittsburgh
• 43:07
  Speaker 6: side here so the money does kind of agree with
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: that so yeah I mean Kansas City first five might
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: be the the best way to play this game to
• 43:15
  Speaker 6: be honest I just heard something outside I don't know
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: what's going on here let me see it doesn't really
• 43:21
  Speaker 6: look like there's anything going on here I don't know
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: anyway Yeah, Kansas City first five, maybe the best lean
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: in that game for me. But, yeah, like I said,
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: I'm treading very lightly with baseball today.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 43:36
  Speaker 6: Yesterday it worked out with an easy win, but most
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: of them don't come.
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: That easily, all right?
• 43:42
  Speaker 6: And, in fact, good segue by me not even realizing
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: it because this next game is going to be the
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: one baseball play I'm giving out here. which is Toronto, Texas,
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: and we're going to take this game under eight here.
• 43:59
  Speaker 6: There were some seven and a halves out there, so
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: I am kind of worried that there is money actually
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: kind of coming in against me here on the over,
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: but this looks like an under to me, man. You
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: have two pitchers that are not really household name pitchers here,
• 44:12
  Speaker 6: so they kind of go under the radar. One of
• 44:14
  Speaker 6: them I actually think sucks, but he's just been good
• 44:17
  Speaker 6: this year, so I don't know what to tell you.
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: We have a A matchup of not great offenses here,
• 44:22
  Speaker 6: especially Toronto's. And this is a pitcher-friendly park, so I
• 44:25
  Speaker 6: think we have a lot of makings for an under
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: in this one.
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: I know we have to deal with the bullpens here.
• 44:30
  Speaker 6: I know Toronto did use five guys out of the
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: bullpen yesterday, but they mostly went with a bullpen game,
• 44:37
  Speaker 6: so their better relief pitchers are pretty much available here,
• 44:39
  Speaker 6: which is like Varland, Fluardi, whatever. Those guys are rested here,
• 44:44
  Speaker 6: so they can use those guys today. So I'm kind
• 44:46
  Speaker 6: of okay with it here. They've been a decent bullpen
• 44:50
  Speaker 6: this year. Texas is not that good, but they only
• 44:52
  Speaker 6: used two guys out of the bullpen, even though really
• 44:55
  Speaker 6: one guy, because Alexander opened the game, and then they
• 44:57
  Speaker 6: used Trevor Williams, and it looks like they basically didn't
• 44:59
  Speaker 6: use anybody else. Texas, even though I don't like their
• 45:04
  Speaker 6: bullpen this year, I think they're okay enough.
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: They're ranked 20th.
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: I don't love that, obviously, but they're not a bullpen
• 45:11
  Speaker 6: that's like, So disastrous that you need to avoid them.
• 45:15
  Speaker 6: Toronto's number 17, but their ERA is pretty solid. Toronto's,
• 45:18
  Speaker 6: it's almost a run better than the Rangers. Neither offense
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: is good. Like I said, Toronto's number 27 tied with Seattle.
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: That's not good.
• 45:27
  Speaker 6: Texas is number 17, tied with the Giants and San Diego.
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: But I still don't think their offense is that good.
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: And we're looking at two good pitchers here in this
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: specific matchup, I would say. I don't think, like I said,
• 45:41
  Speaker 6: Cal Quantrill, I think he actually is not a good pitcher.
• 45:44
  Speaker 6: But this year has... Made me rethink that to some extent.
• 45:50
  Speaker 6: Jose Soriano's on the other side. I think he's pretty
• 45:52
  Speaker 6: good for Toronto. He got traded from Anaheim at the
• 45:55
  Speaker 6: trade deadline. Toronto's going to be motivated. By the way, Toronto,
• 45:59
  Speaker 6: they got obliterated in yesterday's game. Just to point that out. Texas,
• 46:04
  Speaker 6: they're playing with motivation right now, man. They're really trying
• 46:07
  Speaker 6: to win this AL West here. They're tied with Houston.
• 46:09
  Speaker 6: They've won five of their last six games. They beat
• 46:11
  Speaker 6: Dylan Cease yesterday. Cease got unlucky, though, man, I will say.
• 46:15
  Speaker 6: He didn't last long in the game, but Five unearned
• 46:18
  Speaker 6: runs scored against Cease, so it looks like Cease got
• 46:21
  Speaker 6: crushed in this game, and he was wild. He walked
• 46:23
  Speaker 6: too many guys in the game, but only one of
• 46:26
  Speaker 6: the runs he allowed was earned, so it was like
• 46:28
  Speaker 6: the defense just lapsed, and he couldn't get out of
• 46:30
  Speaker 6: whatever inning he was in, so that's kind of what
• 46:33
  Speaker 6: happened in that game. I think it was kind of
• 46:36
  Speaker 6: a fluke for Cease, but we're not looking at Cease here.
• 46:38
  Speaker 6: We're looking at Soriano, who people don't talk about as
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: much as Cease, and yeah, he's obviously not as good,
• 46:43
  Speaker 6: but 3.56 ERA, 1.27 whip, not bad. And one thing
• 46:48
  Speaker 6: we know about Soriano is what? Oh yeah, that he's
• 46:51
  Speaker 6: better on the road. 3.39 road ERA, although his opponent
• 46:55
  Speaker 6: batting average is a little bit higher on the road
• 46:57
  Speaker 6: this year, but still he's generally a better road pitcher
• 47:00
  Speaker 6: than home pitcher over the last couple years. He's in
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: pretty good form-ish recently. He hasn't allowed that many runs
• 47:05
  Speaker 6: in most of his recent starts at least. He's doing
• 47:08
  Speaker 6: all right. He's going deep into the majority of his
• 47:10
  Speaker 6: starts here at least, so At least six and a
• 47:13
  Speaker 6: third and three of his last four at least. He's
• 47:15
  Speaker 6: allowed four or fewer earned runs than all of them
• 47:17
  Speaker 6: and three or fewer in three of the four. He's
• 47:20
  Speaker 6: got a low hit rate on the season. His problem
• 47:22
  Speaker 6: is usually the walks. He does walk too many guys.
• 47:25
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is all right. He's got a 2.2
• 47:28
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio because the walks are just.
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: A problem, man.
• 47:32
  Speaker 6: 8.5 strikeout per nine is not bad, though.
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: But he's good against the Rangers.
• 47:37
  Speaker 6: He's seen a decent amount of the Rangers because, of course,
• 47:39
  Speaker 6: he was in their division. And in fact, Soriano faced
• 47:43
  Speaker 6: Texas in Texas when he was with Anaheim earlier this
• 47:46
  Speaker 6: season in early July, and he pitched well in that start.
• 47:49
  Speaker 6: He went six innings, gave up two runs on two hits,
• 47:52
  Speaker 6: two walks, four strikeouts. So he was good there. He
• 47:55
  Speaker 6: is generally good against Texas in 74 at-bats, 17-7 strikeout
• 47:59
  Speaker 6: walk ratio is not good, but 243 average allowed, 655 OPS.
• 48:04
  Speaker 6: Those are good numbers there. So he could definitely pitch
• 48:07
  Speaker 6: well against this particular lineup. So I think it's a
• 48:11
  Speaker 6: decent matchup for him. He's in the better of his
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: home road splits. And Cal Quantrill on the other side,
• 48:15
  Speaker 6: I guess give him credit, man, because it's been a
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: good season for him.
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: 2.9 ERA, 1.05 whip.
• 48:22
  Speaker 6: A lot of it has been coming out of the bullpen,
• 48:23
  Speaker 6: but he is in the starting rotation right now. So,
• 48:26
  Speaker 6: I mean, if you want to play this game as
• 48:29
  Speaker 6: Soriano must start but go action on the Texas side,
• 48:32
  Speaker 6: you can if you want. I do think Quantrill is
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: going to start this game, though, Quandrell's been good at home, man. 2.28
• 48:39
  Speaker 6: home ERA, so that's really good. He's been definitely good recently.
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: What else can you say? He's not allowing many runs.
• 48:45
  Speaker 6: He's not allowing many hits. His team has won five
• 48:47
  Speaker 6: of his last six starts. He's faced some good offenses
• 48:50
  Speaker 6: in here like Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and he did well
• 48:53
  Speaker 6: in both of those. He had a seven-inning shutout against
• 48:56
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay here at home. He's pitching well. I don't
• 49:00
  Speaker 6: know what else to tell you. He's gone at least
• 49:02
  Speaker 6: six innings in his last six starts straight, basically since
• 49:06
  Speaker 6: he's been entrenched in their starting rotation. He's got a
• 49:09
  Speaker 6: low hit rate. He doesn't really walk, guys. He does
• 49:11
  Speaker 6: not strike guys out, though. So that's the one thing
• 49:13
  Speaker 6: the advanced analytics guys will have a problem with. But 3.2
• 49:17
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is one of the best that he's posted.
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: So that's a good number for him.
• 49:21
  Speaker 6: 6.7 strikeout per nine not very good but that does
• 49:25
  Speaker 6: tell you he's walking very few people And Toronto has
• 49:28
  Speaker 6: not been able to do anything against them when they
• 49:30
  Speaker 6: have seen them. They have 26 at-bats against them. Basically,
• 49:33
  Speaker 6: everybody in their lineup has faced them. They only have
• 49:36
  Speaker 6: one extra race hit, which is Vlad Guerrero with a double. Guerrero,
• 49:40
  Speaker 6: by the way, finally hit a home run at home
• 49:42
  Speaker 6: the other day. Believe it or not, Guerrero went almost
• 49:44
  Speaker 6: this entire season without hitting a home run at home,
• 49:47
  Speaker 6: which is ridiculous.
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: But he is on the road here.
• 49:50
  Speaker 6: Uh quantrill has held toronto to 154 average of 407
• 49:53
  Speaker 6: ops so he has better matchup numbers than soriano does
• 49:57
  Speaker 6: even though i don't think he's the better of the
• 49:58
  Speaker 6: two pitchers we're going under in this one man at
• 50:01
  Speaker 6: the very least it looks like the over is public
• 50:04
  Speaker 6: here 84 of the tickets 90 of the cash on
• 50:07
  Speaker 6: it the odds makers are kind of telling you they
• 50:09
  Speaker 6: think it'll be low scoring because they threw up a
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: seven and a half or eight on this and i
• 50:14
  Speaker 6: think maybe, you know, public action, maybe it's driven this
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: up to an eight.
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: Although I don't know, I don't think the public, given that.
• 50:21
  Speaker 6: This is a huge football day, I don't really think
• 50:23
  Speaker 6: the public is going, Oh yeah, let me take the
• 50:25
  Speaker 6: over in the, let me play the blue Jays Rangers game.
• 50:29
  Speaker 6: Even though going over is a, is a public move. Usually, um,
• 50:33
  Speaker 6: they're not going to be doing it in this game.
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: Even if they're looking at baseball overs, like their eye
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: is not going to gravitate towards this game. So, um, Whatever,
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: but I do like the under in that one as
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: my only play.
• 50:44
  Speaker 6: All right, in baseball. We're mostly going football today, man.
• 50:49
  Speaker 6: Hopefully my gauge on the football slate is good. All right,
• 50:52
  Speaker 6: not gauge jump. Atlanta and Houston. I was correct about
• 50:56
  Speaker 6: Atlanta getting the win yesterday. I think behind Molly yesterday,
• 50:59
  Speaker 6: Atlanta did get the win. I believe I also said
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: under in that game, and I believe that... That was right.
• 51:15
  Speaker 6: Got more motivation here, though, man. They got to bounce
• 51:16
  Speaker 6: back here. They're tied with Texas. They're desperately trying to
• 51:20
  Speaker 6: make the playoffs. The Braves are going to make the playoffs.
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 51:24
  Speaker 6: They have a decent padding in their division right now.
• 51:26
  Speaker 6: They don't have to worry as much as Houston does.
• 51:28
  Speaker 6: So I think Houston's going to be the team that
• 51:30
  Speaker 6: has a lot of urgency here. The Braves do have
• 51:32
  Speaker 6: the better bullpen, though. They used two guys out of
• 51:34
  Speaker 6: the bullpen yesterday. Houston used three guys. The Braves are
• 51:39
  Speaker 6: number three in bullpen right now, which I would say
• 51:41
  Speaker 6: is about accurate.
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: The Astros are number 11.
• 51:47
  Speaker 6: They're an okay bullpen after they were really bad early
• 51:50
  Speaker 6: in the season. Houston's number nine in offense, and the
• 51:53
  Speaker 6: Braves are, where are they? Number 10, a tie with
• 51:57
  Speaker 6: the Red Sox. So they've both been pretty capable offenses here.
• 52:01
  Speaker 6: Atlanta's got Grant Holmes on the mound here today.
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: He's not as good as his ERA looks, let's just
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: say that.
• 52:07
  Speaker 6: 3.49 ERA, but 1.3 whip isn't really that good. He
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: puts too many guys on base. He's been better on
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: the road this year, which is opposite of what he
• 52:16
  Speaker 6: did last year.
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: Last year he was.
• 52:17
  Speaker 6: Better at home, which makes more sense given that his
• 52:20
  Speaker 6: name is Holmes. But 2.43 road ERA this year, so
• 52:23
  Speaker 6: he is good on the road. But he's not going
• 52:26
  Speaker 6: deep into most of his outings recently, so that's a
• 52:28
  Speaker 6: little bit concerning. He's not really striking guys out. I
• 52:31
  Speaker 6: don't know, there are some things to not really love
• 52:33
  Speaker 6: about the way that he's pitching right now, even though
• 52:35
  Speaker 6: he has not allowed that many runs recently either. He
• 52:39
  Speaker 6: does have a low hit rate on the season, so
• 52:40
  Speaker 6: that's good, but his walk number has been an issue.
• 52:43
  Speaker 6: He walks too many guys, and his strikeout rate is
• 52:45
  Speaker 6: not very good. So in come the advanced analytics guys
• 52:48
  Speaker 6: again to point out that he has a 1.9 strikeout
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: walk ratio, which is definitely not good. And I agree,
• 52:55
  Speaker 6: I don't love that either. His strikeout rate has just
• 52:57
  Speaker 6: gone way down this year. last two years he was
• 53:00
  Speaker 6: over nine, but this year seven. So he's not striking
• 53:03
  Speaker 6: out as many guys. That's not really a great sign.
• 53:06
  Speaker 6: He is decent against Houston, but it is a small
• 53:08
  Speaker 6: sample size, 13 at bats, three, three strikeout walk ratio
• 53:11
  Speaker 6: is not good, but they only have a two 31
• 53:13
  Speaker 6: average against them.
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: Six 83 OPS.
• 53:16
  Speaker 6: They have one extra base hit a double from Lamont
• 53:19
  Speaker 6: Wade jr. Is that a Lamonte Wade jr. I don't
• 53:22
  Speaker 6: know the full Monty, whatever. Um, That's what we got
• 53:27
  Speaker 6: going on here. Six of their hitters have faced him,
• 53:29
  Speaker 6: but I think I trust Wisniewski more out of these
• 53:32
  Speaker 6: two starters here. Hayden Wisniewski is pitching for Houston.
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: He's a guy that I think everybody kind of forgot
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: about him because I think he missed at least one
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: entire season with an injury, but he was decent prior
• 53:42
  Speaker 5: to that, and he's been pretty good this year when
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: he's pitched. He hasn't pitched that much, but he's got
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: a 3.7 ERA, 1.13 whip. He's been really good at home.
• 53:48
  Speaker 6: 2.86 home area with a 169 opponent batting average. Wasn't
• 53:56
  Speaker 6: good in his last start against Tampa Bay, although four
• 53:59
  Speaker 6: of the runs he allowed were unearned in that game.
• 54:01
  Speaker 6: So the defense definitely did not help him out in
• 54:04
  Speaker 6: that game at all. But prior to that, he was
• 54:06
  Speaker 6: pitching well. He had four good starts in a row.
• 54:09
  Speaker 6: Prior to that, he was starting to ramp it up
• 54:11
  Speaker 6: and pitch well. And I don't know that he's necessarily
• 54:14
  Speaker 6: just totally fallen off of that one bad start against
• 54:17
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay.
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: I'm kind of leaning towards no. He's got a.
• 54:21
  Speaker 6: Towards that he has not fallen off. He's got a
• 54:24
  Speaker 6: reasonably low hit rate here. His walk rate is okay.
• 54:27
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is not great, though. 2.4 strikeout walk
• 54:31
  Speaker 6: ratio is definitely lower than what he's posted in the past.
• 54:33
  Speaker 6: He did actually pitch a little bit last year. And
• 54:36
  Speaker 6: he was on the Cubs up until that point. But yeah,
• 54:39
  Speaker 6: I think he got injured, so he didn't really pitch
• 54:41
  Speaker 6: that much last year. But his career numbers are good.
• 54:43
  Speaker 6: He's got a seven strikeout per nine this year. His
• 54:46
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate so far is not as high as it
• 54:48
  Speaker 6: once was, but he might be able to ramp that up.
• 54:50
  Speaker 6: He hasn't pitched much yet. So one good thing for
• 54:53
  Speaker 6: Houston is that he's fresh at the end of the season.
• 54:56
  Speaker 6: If he's pitching all right and he hasn't thrown that
• 54:58
  Speaker 6: many innings, that'll be good for Houston, especially if they
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: actually make the playoffs here.
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: Wisniewski has been good against the Braves in 36 career at-bats.
• 55:06
  Speaker 6: 139 average allowed, 455 OPS, 4-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 55:12
  Speaker 5: Good numbers there.
• 55:15
  Speaker 6: He's allowed one home run to Austin Riley and one
• 55:18
  Speaker 6: double to Kyle Farmer.
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: But that's it.
• 55:20
  Speaker 6: He's got good numbers here against them. So, yeah, this game,
• 55:24
  Speaker 6: I'm going to lead Houston here. I think Wes Neskey
• 55:27
  Speaker 6: has the upper hand here. The money doesn't agree with me.
• 55:29
  Speaker 6: 59% of tickets, 95% of the cash on Atlanta.
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: So money's coming in on Atlanta. I think I would
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: say Houston first five, though.
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: Because Atlanta's got the bullpen edge here. So I think
• 55:40
  Speaker 6: I would take that out of the equation. Take Houston
• 55:42
  Speaker 6: first five, I think is how I'd play this. They're
• 55:45
  Speaker 6: around minus 130, though, on the money line. So for
• 55:48
  Speaker 6: the first five, you might have to lay a half
• 55:50
  Speaker 6: run with Houston. And that starts getting a little bit sketchy.
• 55:53
  Speaker 6: Because I do also lean under in this game. And
• 55:56
  Speaker 6: the money is coming in that way. 64% of tickets
• 55:59
  Speaker 6: on the over. 57% of the cash on the under.
• 56:02
  Speaker 6: The total is $ 8.
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: 50.
• 56:04
  Speaker 6: I can see both pitchers doing all right here. They
• 56:06
  Speaker 6: do both have decent matchup numbers. They're both in the
• 56:09
  Speaker 6: better home road splits here. We have two pretty capable
• 56:11
  Speaker 6: bullpens here as well. So under does make sense here
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: in this one. And, you know, maybe under is actually
• 56:20
  Speaker 6: better than looking at Houston first five, but I do
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: think Houston has the better starting pitcher on the mound
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: here and more motivation on their side.
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: So Dakota, what's up, man? You can DM me if
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: you want.
• 56:34
  Speaker 6: I don't know what we're talking about here. Scammed by
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: a sports betting discord. Don't fall into the scams, man.
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: Just don't believe anybody. But I don't believe you either, though.
• 56:44
  Speaker 6: I don't trust you.
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: You can DM me about it if you want, man.
• 56:47
  Speaker 6: But I don't know if I'm going to have a
• 56:48
  Speaker 6: whole lot to say about it. I'm not going to
• 56:50
  Speaker 6: be able to get a discord shut down or anything.
• 56:52
  Speaker 6: I think my only advice is to just Dude, you
• 56:56
  Speaker 6: got to tell him to get out of that Discord.
• 56:58
  Speaker 6: That's all I can say. If he's getting scammed or whatever,
• 57:01
  Speaker 6: don't give people you don't know money. And don't listen
• 57:05
  Speaker 6: to these people.
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: Just get out of the Discord. You know what I mean?
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: I'm not scamming you on the show. I'm giving you
• 57:11
  Speaker 6: my actual plays here and just my opinions here.
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: So at least there's that.
• 57:14
  Speaker 6: And I'm not asking anybody. I mean, I do have
• 57:16
  Speaker 6: a Patreon if you want to give me money. But
• 57:18
  Speaker 6: I'm not asking for money.
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 57:21
  Speaker 6: And I'm not claiming that I'm going to give you
• 57:23
  Speaker 6: anything that I'm not. We all know what this is,
• 57:26
  Speaker 6: and I'm giving you my record. I'm tracking my record
• 57:28
  Speaker 6: here on the show, and it's all documented on the
• 57:30
  Speaker 6: show anyway, so.
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: There you go.
• 57:34
  Speaker 6: All right, so you know what you're getting by listening
• 57:38
  Speaker 6: to me, and I'm giving it out for free anyway.
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: Washington and St.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 57:43
  Speaker 6: This looks like a decent pitching matchup to me is
• 57:46
  Speaker 6: my thought on this game.
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: We have a pitcher-friendly ballpark here.
• 57:50
  Speaker 6: We got the win yesterday with my one baseball play
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: with Washington, my only play of the day yesterday. Easy
• 57:55
  Speaker 6: win with Washington in the first five yesterday. They won
• 57:58
  Speaker 6: the full game as well. Like I said, it was
• 58:00
  Speaker 6: slightly misleading that they were winning 8-0 at the end
• 58:03
  Speaker 6: of 5. They scored more runs than the amount of
• 58:05
  Speaker 6: hits that they had, but they still obviously won the
• 58:07
  Speaker 6: game legitimately.
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: Will St. Louis bounce back here? I don't know, man.
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: Neither of these teams has anything to play for, really,
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: at this point.
• 58:16
  Speaker 6: They're both just playing off the stretch, but maybe because
• 58:18
  Speaker 6: yesterday's game was a little bit embarrassing for St.
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: Louis, maybe they'll play better here. Washington used like three
• 58:26
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday. St.
• 58:27
  Speaker 6: Louis' bullpen is very clean right now. They only used
• 58:30
  Speaker 6: one guy yesterday, a guy named WinQuest. That guy should
• 58:34
  Speaker 6: be a professional gamer. Yeah, hello, I'm Cade WinQuest. What
• 58:39
  Speaker 6: quest am I going to be doing today in World
• 58:43
  Speaker 6: of Warcraft or whatever? All right. Do people still play that?
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 58:47
  Speaker 6: I haven't played video games for the most part in
• 58:49
  Speaker 6: quite a while, man. I used to play a lot
• 58:51
  Speaker 6: of them.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: Including WoW, but I was not one of those guys
• 58:56
  Speaker 6: that never left my room, you know what I mean?
• 58:59
  Speaker 5: I played it in college, but I still left my
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: room a good amount. Yes, correct. All right.
• 59:10
  Speaker 6: What was I– where was I? Oh, yeah, bullpens here. Yeah,
• 59:12
  Speaker 6: Washington's not a good bullpen. Number 25, St. Louis is
• 59:16
  Speaker 6: not that much better at number 23, so I don't
• 59:18
  Speaker 6: like either bullpen, but St. Louis is the better and
• 59:20
  Speaker 6: more rested one. Might want to avoid both of them still.
• 59:24
  Speaker 6: Washington's the better offense.
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: They're number three.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: St.
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: Louis, where are they? Number 26. So yeah, obviously Washington
• 59:32
  Speaker 6: better in that department. I think Washington's pitcher is the
• 59:36
  Speaker 6: one that has more actual talent and a higher ceiling,
• 59:40
  Speaker 6: which is Andrew Alvarez here.
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good. 3.35 ERA, 1.27 whip.
• 59:43
  Speaker 6: You'd like to see me a little bit lower, but
• 59:50
  Speaker 6: watching him pitch this year. I think he does have
• 59:51
  Speaker 6: some talent here and he's been pretty good on the road.
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: 3.27 roadie. All right. Uh, he's coming off a seven inning,
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: one hit shutout of Anaheim.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 6: Although he was wild. He walked four guys and he
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 6: is wild. That's his one problem is he walks too
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: many guys. That was Anaheim. I mean, Anaheim's offense sucks,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 6: but still he's had two shutouts in his last three appearances.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: And one was against Miami.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 6: And there were at least a more capable offense than
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 6: Anaheim is. Um, Alvarez has a low hit rate, so
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 6: he is hard to hit. His walk rate is his
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 6: only problem. He walks too many guys. His strikeout rate
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 6: is not bad, though. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio is still
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 6: That's telling you the walks are a huge concern with him. 8.7
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 6: strikeup per nine is all right, but he's got to
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 6: stop walking, people.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: I feel like I say that a lot. He might
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: have the upper hand here. St. Louis has never seen
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: him before.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 6: So this is a pitcher from the park against a
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 6: pretty weak offense that is not familiar with him. So
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 6: I think Alvarez does have an upper hand here against them,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 6: given that they're going to have to figure him out
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 6: first time seeing him. So I do like Alvarez to
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 6: pitch well here. Michael McGreevy on the other side, advanced
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 6: analytics guys, you know, ripping their hair out pretty much
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 6: over this guy. 3.83 ERA, 1.24 whip. Not great, but
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 6: not bad. He is very consistent. He's pretty much the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 6: same home and away, although his opponent batting average at
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 6: home is a little bit worse. even though it's a
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 6: pitcher-friendly park, but he's still not allowing that many runs.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 6: He got blown up once here in the stadium in
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 6: late August against Baltimore, but he's allowed two or fewer
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 6: earned runs than all but one other start since the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 6: beginning of August. And that other one was at the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 6: Dodgers where he allowed four. So he's not that bad,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 6: although his walk rate's gone a little bit up recently.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 6: He has an okay hit rate. His walk rate is
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 6: pretty good. His strikeout rate is really low, though. So, again, that's, again,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 6: why the advanced analytics guys do not like him. 2.5
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio. Doesn't really walk many guys, at least. 6.3
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 6: strikeout per nine. Yeah, I know, that's not impressive. He
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 6: doesn't strike guys out, but he's still not putting too
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 6: many guys on base. He's got a decent ground ball
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 6: ratio here. He's good against Washington, too. It's 16 at bats,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 6: 188 batting average allowed, 375 OPS allowed. They have no
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 6: extra base hits against him. One strikeout, no walks. So
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 6: he's been good against Washington in his history. So like
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 6: I said, I think the best way to play this
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 6: game is to take the first five under, man.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: I don't love the bullpens, obviously. Washington's especially not.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: So I would take them out of the equation, and
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 6: I would take the first five under if I was
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 6: going to play this one.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: Both pitchers, starting pitchers, I think might do all right here.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: The money's back in the over. I don't really get it.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: Yet again, another market read that is not agreeing with me.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: 67% of tickets, 90% of the cash on the over.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 6: The total's eight and a half. Yeah, I would go
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 6: first five under, though. You might be able to find
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 6: a four, four and a half on that. That's the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 6: way I would lean in that game. The money's also
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 6: coming in towards Washington. I probably agree with that. It
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 6: would be the first five, though.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: 70% of tickets, 61% of the cash on St.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 5: At about minus 118 or so here.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: St.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: Louis did drop for minus 130 something. So some real
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: money back in Washington.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 6: And yeah, I do think Alvarez is the pitcher that
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 6: has the higher ceiling here. But both pitchers have good
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 6: matchup numbers, man. You could go Washington first five. Like
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 6: I said, avoid their bullpen.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: But St.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 6: Louis had an embarrassing loss yesterday too. So I don't
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 6: really want to fade them here because they might bounce back.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 6: So I prefer the first five under in that one.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 6: All right, I'm going to be right back. I'll talk
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 6: about the other five games here and then WNBA really
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 6: quick and do the final college market read, I guess,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 6: real quick.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: All right, I'll be right back.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 6: Yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We were on
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 6: an 0-7 run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 5: It was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 5: don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 6: I have never seen anything like this, man. With the
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 6: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 5: I just have not had a good season, man, with weekends.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Slumped.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 5: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 7: March 8th?
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 5: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 5: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 5: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 5: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 6: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 5: 0-5, the worst month.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 6: That I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 6: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 6: The slump continues.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 5: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 6: What I should do at this point other than potentially.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: End it all. All right.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I have no idea what that means. South Park.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 6: What?
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 6: Seattle and Colorado. Colorado not playing well, obviously. Seattle got
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 6: the win yesterday. Seattle really the only team with anything
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 6: to play for if they really have anything to play for.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 6: I think they're technically not eliminated yet, and they did
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 6: get the win yesterday. Colorado's lost every game recently, except
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 6: they stole one game against San Diego, but that's about it.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 6: Seattle's the better team here, but I don't know if
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 6: I love Seattle in this particular game. Colorado, obviously, they
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 6: don't have a good bullpen. They used four guys out
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 6: of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: Seattle, I'll use five.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 6: Seattle's bullpen has not been very good either. They're number 21,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 6: but Colorado's worse, number 27. Seattle's been very bad offensively,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 6: number 27 tied with Toronto. Colorado number five, so Colorado's
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 6: the better offense. Seattle's going with Bryce Miller here. He's
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 6: been good for the most part, 4.19 ERA, 1.16 whip,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 6: but he's not as good on the road. 4.6 road
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 6: era so he pitches in seattle that's also a problem
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 6: seattle's pitchers i mean woo was good enough yesterday but
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 6: seattle has a very pitcher friendly ballpark and colorado is
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 6: the opposite of that so sometimes these pitchers are not
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 6: going to do well having to make that shift and
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 6: in fact miller didn't really pitch that well in his
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 6: last start at the a's at least they kind of
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 6: got to Playing a pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I mean,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 6: to get used to it. But Miller was wild in
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 6: that game. He walked five guys. He's walked eight guys
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 6: in his last eight and two-thirds innings. That's not good, man.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 6: Miller is not pitching well right now. He was really
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 6: bad in the month of August. He's in pretty bad form, really,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 6: right now. He's not going deep into some of these outings.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 6: And things are not going well for him, although he
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 6: has a pretty low hit rate on the season. Doesn't
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 6: really walk that many guys. Does get a decent amount
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 6: of strikeouts.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: 3.1 strikeout walk ratio, 8.9 Ks per nine.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 6: That's all pretty good. Colorado has not really done much
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 6: against him offensively. They have six guys who have faced him,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 6: 24 at bats, eight strikeouts, no walks, 250 average, 625 OPS,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 6: but I still don't trust Miller. I just don't, even
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 6: though his numbers are all right here against Colorado. Small
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 6: sample size. He's in bad form.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: He's not good on the road. So I don't like that.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 6: And Jose Quintana is getting the start for Colorado. It
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 6: looks like a name I have not.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 5: Heard in quite a while.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 6: He had a decent season last year with Milwaukee from
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 6: completely out of nowhere. He's an older dude. He's been
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 6: around forever. He's a junk pitcher, but he's still out
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 6: there doing it, man. Although this year with Colorado... Was
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 6: not going well for him before he got injured. 5.27 ERA, 1.51 whip.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 6: Although he actually was pitching better at home in this stadium. 4.03
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 6: home ERA. So the home road splits actually favor Quintana here.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 6: And I do actually like backing pitchers like him that
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: are total veterans, that are coming back from a long.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 5: injury stint like this because i.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 6: Think people tend to underrate them and they're obviously they're
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 6: only putting him out there because they think he could
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 6: do it they think he's ready he's gone through that
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 6: rehab a lot of times he's excited to get back
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 6: out there and if the team respects him you know
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 6: because he's been around for forever the team's going to
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 6: want to go out and play well behind him you
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 6: know what i mean so i think you can have
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 6: kind of a rallying effect so i think that will
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 6: possibly motivate colorado here a.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: His hit rate was too high. His walk rate was okay.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate, very low, though. 1.2 strikeout walk ratio. Very,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: very bad. There's no doubt about that.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 6: 4.4 strikeout per nine is horrific as well, but maybe
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 6: he was injured or something, man, because he is better
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 6: than that throughout his career.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: And i think he's not totally done yet.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 6: At the age of 37 uh and the way that
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 6: he pitches should give him longevity like he doesn't pitch
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 6: that um he doesn't throw hard you know what i
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 6: mean uh whoops that was the wrong thing here hang
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 6: on no I hate it, dude, when ESPN takes the
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 6: batter versus pitcher tab down when the guy's on the
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 6: IL or whatever.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: I hate it. Quintana's been good against Seattle in the past.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 6: They have 36 at-bats against them, 7 batters to face them,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 6: 111 batting average, 422 OPS, 11 of 4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 6: So the ratio's not excellent, but the rest of these
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 6: numbers are pretty good. So Quintana has been pretty good
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 6: against them.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 7: Is it?
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 6: Man, I mean, does it sound crazy to say that
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 6: maybe Colorado first five is possibly worth a look here?
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 6: I mean, Seattle's minus 150 or something here. They're pretty
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 6: much a dead team here. 93% of tickets, 87% of
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 6: the cash on them. And I was thinking Seattle might
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 6: be the only team with somebody to play for, but
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 6: maybe not because maybe Colorado will rally behind Quintana coming
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 6: back here.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 5: That might be in consideration here, man.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 6: Maybe I'll look at towards Colorado in the first five here,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 6: not including their bullpen, obviously, but maybe that motivational effect
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 6: will be there. Uh, I was also thinking maybe the over,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 6: I just don't think I liked what I've, what I've
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 6: seen for the most part out of these pictures, man,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 6: the total is 11 though, 11 and a half, you know,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 6: it's a course field total. The money is coming in
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 6: towards the over. Um, This game is very, very difficult
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 6: to figure out. So, yeah, I don't want to deal
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 6: with it at all, but those are my thoughts on it,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 6: at least. World of Warcraft, that episode was out.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 5: When I was in college. I remember it.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 6: New York and Arizona... Yankees and Arizona, I was wrong
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 6: about yesterday. I thought Arizona had the upper hand in
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 6: the first five yesterday.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 5: That did not happen. The pitching matchup looked like it
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 5: was good for them. This one does not.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 6: Although Arizona, the other reason why I leaned Arizona yesterday
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 6: is because they are in real desperation mode, man, because
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 6: Arizona keeps losing and San Diego keeps winning. San Diego's
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 6: running away with that last wild card spot right now.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 6: I think they're five games up. Arizona needs to stop
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 6: the bleeding. They have to get a win here. But
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 6: the problem is they're going to have to do it
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 6: against Schlittler in this game. Arizona used two guys out
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 6: of their bullpen yesterday. Yankees have the better bullpen.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 5: They used three.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 6: Yankees are the number two bullpen. Well, they're ranked fourth
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 6: right now, but they're one of the top two bullpens.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 6: They got the best bullpen in the second-best whip tied
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 6: with Tampa and Atlanta for the second-best whip. and just
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 6: ahead of the Red Sox in ERA and behind them
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 6: in whip.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are a good bullpen.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 6: Arizona's number five, but they're a bit worse than the Yankees,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 6: so that's what I have to say about that. The
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 6: Yankees' offense had been turning it around. They're number 12,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 6: tied with the White Sox, but Aaron Judge, I believe,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 6: is back on the injured list, man. I mentioned it yesterday.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 6: He had gotten hurt in the previous game, and I
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 6: wasn't sure if he was going to play yesterday. He
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 6: did not play yesterday. The Yankees still put up some
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 6: runs in the game, though. So we will see, but
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 6: we saw that Judge being out had an effect on
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 6: their offense. It was pretty noticeable, so that might happen again.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 6: Arizona's ranked 20th, as I said, in offense, tied with
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 6: Baltimore and Kansas City. Cam Schlittler is pitching for the Yankees.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 6: Like I said, I don't really want to fade him.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 5: He's got a 1.95 ERA,. 9 whip. He's got the best.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 6: ERA for qualifying pitchers with as many innings as he's thrown.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 6: I think maybe in the entire league, except maybe Mizurowski's
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 6: is better.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: I don't know. Schlittler's been really good on the road. 1.14
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: road ERA with a 153 opponent batting average.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 6: That's really good. He's been really good in his last, well, like,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 6: several starts at this point. He's allowed one or zero
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 6: run in seven starts in a row, mostly one run
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 6: in most of those. High strikeout rate over that span
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 6: as well. His walk rate did go up in late August,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 6: but it's back down in the month of September, so
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 6: his command has been really good again over his last
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 6: three starts. He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 6: high strikeout rate. All those numbers are very good. 5.2
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is very good. 11.1 strikeout per nine
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 6: is also quite good. Arizona basically hasn't seen him. The
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 6: only hitter that's faced him is Jesus Sanchez, and he
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 6: has hit him well. He's four for 12 with three
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 6: walks and four strikeouts, but he's only one guy, and
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 6: the rest of this lineup has never seen him. So
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 6: Schlittler should have the upper hand here against a lineup
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 6: that's pretty much unfamiliar with him. Arizona's going with Brandon Fott,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 6: who has a 3.77 ERA and 1.17 whip.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 5: Pretty good numbers this season.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 6: A little bit worse at home, 4.14 home ERA, but
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 6: his opponent batting average is actually better.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 5: At home. Fott, kind of similar to, who was the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 5: other pitcher today?
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 6: There were two pitchers today who got better.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 5: Oh, Andrew Painter.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah, kind of similar to Painter, although Fott is not
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 6: as young as that. But both these guys got sent
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 6: to the minors and did well after coming back up.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 6: So Fott went down to the minors.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 5: When was that?
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 6: In the middle of June, pretty much for the whole
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 6: month of June. He came back and he's been pretty
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 6: good for the most part. He's allowed more than Torn
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 6: runs only three times since coming back. However, those all
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 6: happened in his last five starts, though, so he's not
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 6: pitching as well recently.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 5: So that's the problem.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 6: It seemed like going to the minors helped him, but
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 6: he's not in good form right now. He got beat
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 6: up by Texas in his last start, although he had
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 6: good command numbers there, but he was very hittable in
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 6: that game. His hit rate's not great on the season.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is low, though. He doesn't really walk, guys.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 6: But his strikeout rate is also low. 2.9 strikeout walk
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 6: ratio is the lowest that he's ever posted. 6.1 strikeout
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 6: per nine, same deal. So for whatever reason, his strikeout
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 6: stuff has diminished this season. And he has not been
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 6: good in his career against the Yankees. And 52 at-bats,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 6: 269 average, 931 OPS, 9-2 strikeout walk ratios. All right,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 6: but the rest of those numbers, not good.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: So....
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 6: I think the Yankees should get the win here, but
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 6: the money's coming in against them. 93% of tickets, 87%
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 6: of the cash.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: On the Yankees. The money is fading them.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 6: The Yankees, yeah, I mean, ideally for them, they'd want
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 6: to somehow steal the AL East, but Arizona's got way
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 6: more to play for because they're just trying to stay
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 6: alive here in this race.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: Desperation mode.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 6: However, the matchup pretty clearly favors the Yankees here, though.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 6: So I don't think I'd fade the Yankees here. They're
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 6: around minus 140 or so, but the money is fading them.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 6: for whatever that's worth. The money's coming in on the
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 6: over 7.5.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: I was thinking an under made some sense because Schlittler
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 5: is just Schlittler, and Fott had been good since he
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 5: got sent down to the minors, but his recent, recent
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 5: form is not good, and his matchup numbers are not good,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 5: so I don't love that. 7.5 is the total in
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 5: the game, though.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 6: All right, Miami and San Diego. I think if I
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 6: played that game, it would be the Yankees, to be honest,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 6: but really don't want to. The market read is sort
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 6: of warning against it. San Diego beat the Marlins yesterday,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 6: so they're continuing playing hot baseball here. They've won all
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 6: but one game over the last, I don't even know
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 6: how many games this is at this point, that Rockies
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 6: game where the Rockies stole that game. The Rockies have
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 6: lost all their other recent games, and San Diego's won
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 6: all their recent games. San Diego does have a nice
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 6: padding over Arizona now, though, so will San Diego finally
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 6: have their foot off the gas and maybe get caught here? maybe,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 6: because Miami might have the better pitcher on the mound
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 6: in this game. San Diego does have the better bullpen.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 6: They used four guys out.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 5: Of the bullpen.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 6: Miami used five. Miami's bullpen ranks pretty high. Well, they're
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 6: number 12 now, so they have fallen off a little bit.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 6: I think they're a mediocre bullpen. San Diego is like
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 6: a top five bullpen, even though they're ranked seven right now.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: Miami has been the better offense. They're number eight. San
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 5: Diego is... What did I say?
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 6: Oh, they're 17 now, so they have moved up a bit.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 6: Tied with the Giants and Texas. San Diego better in
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 6: the second half. Uri Perez getting the start from Miami.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 6: He's been pretty solid. 3.99 ERA, although he's a little
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 6: bit wild. 1.24 whip. He's not as good on the road. 4.54
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 6: road ERA. This will be a pitcher-friendly park that he's
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 6: pitching in here today, though. He bounced back all right
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 6: with a pretty good start last time against the Dodgers,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 6: who he actually does have good numbers against the Dodgers today.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 6: And I said I thought Miami would win that game,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 6: and they did. Perez was bad in the three starts
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 6: leading up to that, though. But maybe Perez is coming
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 6: back into form a little bit here after he was
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 6: out of form for a few starts in a row.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 6: Although the fact that he didn't pitch well against the
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 6: Mets is not a good sign, and against the Royals, really,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 6: although that was at least at Kansas City. where it's
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 6: easier to hit now. Perez has a low hit rate.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is too high, though. Like I said,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 6: he's wild. He strikes out a lot of guys.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: Too, though. 2.4 strikeout walk ratio is still not really
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: that good. It's his worst, actually, that he's had.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 6: 9.7 Ks from 9. He's got to stop walking, guys, dude.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: That's the deal. He walks too many guys.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 6: He's pretty good against San Diego, though, and 40 at-bats,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 6: 8-3 strikeout walk ratio, 225 average, 629 OPS allowed. So
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 6: he might pitch well here against San Diego. Casey Mai
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 6: is pitching for San Diego, 3.69 ERA, 1.14 whip. He's
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 6: been a good home pitcher this year, 3.14, but he
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 6: hasn't been that good with San Diego. They got him
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 6: from Detroit. He had a good season with Detroit. Came
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 6: over to San Diego and kind of struggled, man. He
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 6: settled down a little bit, but he's still not really
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 6: pitching that well recently he's not going deep into some
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 6: of these games had no strikeouts in his last outing
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 6: which is not good that was a coarse field but
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 6: he got lucky he gave up eight eight hits in
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 6: that game and only allowed two runs and struck out nobody,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 6: so I think he got kind of lucky there. Mize
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 6: looks like he's not really in form right now, man.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 6: His hit rate's all right on the season.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's low.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is not great, but he does not walk, guys, really, though. 3.5
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is still pretty good. 7.7 case per
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 6: nine is not excellent. Mize against the Marlins has.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 5: Been pretty good.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 6: They have a small sample size against them, six hitters,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 6: 17 at-bats, 4-1 strikeout walk ratio. Both extra base hits
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 6: are doubles from Lopez. Nobody else in this lineup has
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 6: an extra base hit against him. 235 average, 631 OPS allowed.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 6: So yeah, I still think maybe the way to look
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 6: at this game is still the under. I mean, that
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 6: was kind of my initial instinct on this. Total seven
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 6: and a half. So again, it's expected to be a
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 6: low scoring game. But again, the market doesn't agree with me.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 6: It's not agreeing with me on anything.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 5: 71% of tickets, 93% of the cash on the over.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 6: But I think the under makes more sense here. You've
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 6: got decent pitching, I think, throughout this game. Mize is
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 6: a little bit of a question mark, though. And San
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 6: Diego's got some good padding in the wild card race now.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 6: They're not going to catch the Dodgers, obviously. San Diego's
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 6: around minus 150. 92% of the tickets, 81% of the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 6: cash on them. So San Diego's public because of all
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 6: that and because they have the better record. But the
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 6: money is fading them. And I do probably agree with
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 6: a Miami first five play.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: I think Perez....
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 6: Can out pitch Mize here I like what we saw
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 6: in Perez's last start more than what we saw in
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 6: Mize's so maybe the current form is there and I
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 6: think Perez is the pitcher that has more talent so
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 6: that's what I would say there San Francisco and the
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 6: Dodgers San Francisco has not decided on a starter because
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 6: Logan Webb was supposed to be up for his turn
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 6: in the rotation but he's injured so Logan Webb is
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 6: not going to pitch here I don't know what San
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 6: Francisco is going to do.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 5: Might be a bullpen game. No idea. They might call
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 5: somebody up to make the start. No clue. So that
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: makes this a bit of a mystery. The Dodgers won yesterday, 8-2.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 6: I guess ideally San Francisco is going to try to
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 6: get some wins here against the Dodgers. They might not
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 6: be able to do it. Dodgers are a massive favorite
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 6: in this game, by the way. Might be the biggest
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 6: Moneyline baseball favorite we've seen all season.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 5: And it's not against the Rockies. That's crazy.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 6: Dodgers used three relief pitchers yesterday. San Francisco used three
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 6: as well. Dodgers have the better bullpen.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 5: They're ranked 14th. They've been all right.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 6: The Giants a little bit worse than that at 24th,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 6: but not a huge gap there. There is a big
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 6: offensive gap, in my opinion. The Dodgers are number two.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 6: San Francisco's number 17. Tied with San Diego and Texas,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 6: although I don't think they're really that good.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 5: Of an offense.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 6: Tariq Scooble will be getting the start for the Dodgers.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 6: He's got a 2.7 ERA,. 95 whip. We know he's good, man,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 6: although he's been slightly worse as a home pitcher this year. 3.4
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 6: home ERA, but of course the Dodgers got him from
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 6: Detroit because the Dodgers can just get whoever they want.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 6: He's been good since coming over to the Dodgers. He's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 6: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start. They've
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 6: won all but two of them, so they're 6-2 with
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 6: him pitching. Although before his last start, they won every
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 6: win that they had against him. Every win that they
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 6: had with him starting was by one run until they
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 6: finally beat the Reds by three last time he pitched.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 6: But a lot of that's not his fault. I mean,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 6: look at how low-scoring these games were. So the Dodgers
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 6: were just not scoring behind him. But we know he's good.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 6: I mean, he's got a low hit rate, really low
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 6: walk rate, high strikeout rate. Yeah, there's nothing wrong with
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 6: him here, even though... People were suggesting that there was
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 6: something wrong with them earlier this season.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, there's not. 5.2 strikeout.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 6: No, sorry, 6.9 strikeout walk ratio on the season. It
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 6: is lower with the Dodgers, but I don't know. Maybe
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 6: they have them pitching in a little bit of a
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 6: different way, but whatever he's doing is working. 10.6 strikeout
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 6: per nine is pretty good. Giants only have two hitters
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 6: who have faced him, Harris and Neal.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 5: Knizner? I have no idea who that is. Knish? Is
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 5: that something? I feel like that's a dish, right?
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 6: I should know as a food fan, but whatever. They're
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 6: 0 for 5 off him. Two strikeouts, no walks. I
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 6: hear a bunch of shit going on outside right now.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 6: I don't know what the fuck is going on out there.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 6: Out on the streets. Not gunshots, though. I mean, it
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 6: sounds like somebody's banging some metal or something. I don't
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 6: know what the fuck's happening. Somebody unloading something out there.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 5: I don't know. Anyway, 2-0 strikeout walk ratio here.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 6: Scooble is unfamiliar to the Giants because he's pitched in
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 6: the AL for his whole career, I guess. They haven't
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 6: really seen him. So I think Scooble should do well here.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 6: We have no idea what San Francisco is doing as
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 6: far as their pitching. Have they announced a starter?
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 5: No, they have not.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 6: The total is still 7-7.5. Money is slightly tilted towards
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 6: the over, although it's a public over.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 5: But, I mean.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 6: For that line to be justified on the 7-7.5, San
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 6: Francisco would have to have a decent pitcher here, you
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 6: would think.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 5: Otherwise, you would think the number should be a little
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 5: bit higher, maybe, like 8, 8.5.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 6: I don't know, but Scooble, you got to take him
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 6: into account, obviously. Dodgers are around a minus 400 favorite,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 6: so good luck trying to play them on the money line. Uh,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 6: you'd have to, on the run line, you'd probably have
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 6: to lay like three runs with them. Uh, are they
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 6: going to win by three when they've only done that
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 6: once with Scooble and they've won by one and all.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 5: His other starts? I would say probably not.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 6: Um, Scooble, at least if you do like the under
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 6: Scooble tends to not get run support.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 5: So there you go. But I don't have a great
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: feel for the game.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 6: The Dodgers should definitely win the game, but that's all
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 6: I could say on it. Um, It's an unplayable game,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 6: pretty much. And the oddsmakers like it that way. They
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 6: don't want you to be able to play the game.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 6: But there's no great way of playing it, really, unless
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 6: maybe you could go San Francisco under their team total
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 6: and go with Skubal to just dominate them. But you'll
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 6: need them to score two or less, and you never know, man.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 6: With the Dodgers' bullpen coming into play, maybe San Francisco
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 6: could score more than that. Minnesota at Anaheim is the
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 6: final game here.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 5: These teams have played twice.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 6: We did get the win with Anaheim in the first
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 6: game of this series, and it should not have been
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 6: as difficult as it was. The Twins bounced back and
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 6: won yesterday 3-0, and as I say, a lot of
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 6: times teams will bounce back after they get shut out
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 6: at home, so Anaheim might be in a little bit
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 6: of a better bounce-back spot here. My first instinct in
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 6: this game, though, is that, well, both pitchers are good,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 6: so there should be a first five under here. Maybe
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 6: it should be, but when you look at the matchup numbers,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 6: it doesn't look that way. Minnesota has a bad bullpen.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 6: They used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Anaheim's
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 6: is not good either. They used two guys as well.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 6: Minnesota's number 29 right now. I don't think they're quite
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 6: that bad, but they're like a bottom five bullpen. Anaheim's
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 6: a little bit better than that at number 22. Anaheim's
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 6: the worst offense in baseball, ranked dead last still. Minnesota's
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 6: much better in that department. They are number 14 at least.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 6: Joe Ryan is getting the start from Minnesota. I'm not
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 6: going to back him in this one, man, because it
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 6: puts a curse on him whenever I back him, and
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 6: it then curses me, and then I start cursing. Ryan,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 6: it's like every time I back him, he's awful. I
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 6: don't know what else to tell you. Ryan is good usually, though.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 5: 3.84 ERA, 1.16 WIP.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 6: His team has not backed him with runs, though. He's
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 6: got a bad win-loss record, but it's not really his fault.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 6: He's a little bit worse.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 5: On the road, kind of.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 6: 3.92 road ERA, but opponent batting average better on the road.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 5: Either way, he's pretty consistent. However... He's been bad since
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 5: the All-Star break. He pitched in the All-Star game.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 6: He had three bad starts, went on the DL, and
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 6: he came back, and he hasn't been good in either
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 6: of his starts since coming back either, and his team
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 6: has lost every one of those games.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 5: So Ryan is not pitching well right now.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 6: He's obviously capable of pitching much better than this. Now, Minnesota,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 6: I don't know if they still think they can make
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 6: the playoffs here or not, so I don't know where
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 6: the motivation might be. He's got a hit rate that's
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 6: a little bit higher than he usually does, but it's
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 6: still not that bad. He really doesn't walk anybody, and
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 6: he still strikes out a lot of guys. Five strikeout
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 6: walk ratio is still a really good number. 9.8 strikeout
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 6: per nine, not bad either. So Ryan, he is still
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 6: a good pitcher, man, in general, and he is good
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 6: usually against Anaheim. 63 at bat, 17 to one strikeout
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 6: walk ratio, 206 average allowed, 520 OPS. That's all good,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 6: but I worry about his current form, man. His current
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 6: form's not good. And on the other side, Reed Detmers
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 6: is pitching for Anaheim. His current form is definitely good.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 5: He's good, and nobody talks about it because he's on Anaheim.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 6: I talk about it, though. 3.36 ERA, 1.05 whip.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 5: He's good at home. 3.29 home ERA. Good form recently.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 6: 25-2 strikeout walk ratio this month with a 189 opponent
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 6: batting average. And he faced the Yankees and the Red
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 6: Sox in two of those games. And he was actually
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 6: worse against Seattle. in his most recent start, the worst
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 6: of all those offenses. Dedmers, he's allowed one or fewer
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 6: earned runs in five of his last six starts. It
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 6: was five in a row before that last start against
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 6: San Diego. So yeah, he's pitching well right now. He's
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 6: had an ERA in the ones for like two months now. Yeah,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 6: really good stuff here. Good command numbers. He's got a
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 6: low hit rate on the season, low walk rate as well,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 6: high strikeout rate, really good numbers across the board. 4.3
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio is the best he's posted.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 5: That's good.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 6: 10.3 strikeout per nine, also good. Problem is, he's actually
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 6: not good against the Twins. They have 7 batters who
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 6: face him it is a small sample 26 at bats
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 6: but not good numbers for him 2 strikeouts 5 walks
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 6: 385 average allowed 1215 OPS none of that is good
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 6: so what do we do with this game Joe Ryan
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 6: has the better matchup numbers So does that mean we
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 6: should play Minnesota? I don't really think so. Detmers is
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 6: in the better form. Does that mean we should play Anaheim?
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on Anaheim.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 6: 71% of tickets on Minnesota, 79% of the cash on
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 6: Anaheim to maybe put Minnesota completely out of their misery here.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 6: Anaheim's a slight favorite, actually. And it does look too
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 6: easy to play Minnesota. It's like, oh, Minnesota has Joe
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 6: Ryan on the mound.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 5: We all know who he is. He's got name recognition.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 6: He's got a name, like the Jim Croce song. We
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 6: know that he's good, man, usually. So the public's going
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 6: to gravitate towards Minnesota with the name pitcher on the
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 6: mound with the better record. But it looks like the
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 6: money is saying to not do that.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 5: And maybe I somewhat.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 6: Agree just because Detmers is also a really good pitcher
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 6: and in better form right now.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 6: Whatever you play here, I think maybe you should avoid
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 6: the bullpens. I guess I learned my lesson, and it
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 6: got really close for comfort in that first game. We
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 6: still got the win, because thankfully Minnesota's bullpen is still
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 6: worse than Anaheim's, but maybe not even risk it. Maybe
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 6: just take Anaheim first five here, but I don't like
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 6: that the matchup numbers don't agree with it. The oddsmakers
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 6: did put a low total here, seven and a half,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 6: and my first instinct was that this looks like an under.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 5: 68% of tickets on the over, 81% of the cash
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 5: on the over, but.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 6: I still think first five under is probably a lean
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 6: for me in this game, even though Detmers doesn't have
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 6: good matchup numbers. But I'm worried about Ryan's current form, though.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 6: That's kind of the issue. It seems like current form
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 6: kind of matters a little bit more than other things.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 6: So maybe Anaheim first five is the right way to
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 6: go here. I would slightly still lean under first five,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 6: but you're going to be looking at a three, three
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 6: and a half, which I don't love. And that will
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 6: do it for the baseball portion of the show.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 5: What San Francisco... well, I don't know. I mean, I
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 5: think maybe that was some of their pitchers. I don't
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 5: really remember. Their outfielders certainly do not. So, no. San
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 5: Francisco is definitely a mixed bag. And yeah, whatever. Yeah, Knish,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 6: I think I've probably had one before. Phoenix at Dallas
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 6: in WNBA. These teams both have played a game. I
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 6: think every team that's playing today has already played a
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 6: game since coming back from.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 5: The World Cup break. The World Cup of basketball.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 6: Dallas won their game easily coming back against LA. Dallas
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 6: is going to make the playoffs. It's just a matter of,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 6: I think they're playing to try to avoid having to
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 6: play Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs. So
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 6: maybe Dallas does want to keep winning for that reason.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 6: They get Phoenix here. Phoenix, I think, is an underrated team,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 6: but they are dealing with a lot of injuries.
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 5: Here, man.
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 6: And they're not making the playoffs, of course. They did
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 6: beat Phoenix. That was the only thing I was right
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 6: about in WNBA the other day. They won that game.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: Excuse me, they beat Portland. Excuse me, Phoenix did.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 6: Now they're having to travel to Dallas from Portland. Maybe
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 6: not that easy to do here. Dallas, do they have
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 6: a big game up next?
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: Let me see.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 6: No, they played Phoenix twice in a row. So there's
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 6: not a lot to really dig into as far as
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 6: this matchup. Dallas is getting the money. They're a 10, 10.5
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 6: point favorite here, though. 64% of tickets, 88% of the
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 6: cash on them. It's a fairly high total. The first
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 6: two games have a high total. In the 170s, Dallas
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 6: just plays that way. They play fast-paced, scoring. Their defense
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 6: isn't as good. I don't know if I like it,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 6: but Phoenix just has too many injuries for me to back,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 6: but my instinct was to lean towards taking the points
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 6: with Phoenix, but the money's saying otherwise, and I have
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 6: no good read on that game at all. Chicago at
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 6: Atlanta on Amazon Prime. That first game's on CBS and
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 6: Paramount Plus in the afternoon. Atlanta murdered Connecticut in their
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 6: first game coming back from the break, and I did
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 6: not think Atlanta was in a good spot in that game.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 6: Didn't even matter. They won by a ridiculous margin. They
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 6: won by whatever that is, 44 points, I think is
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 6: what that is.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 5: Ridiculous.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 6: They shouldn't do that well here against Chicago, who is
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 6: at least better than.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 6: Connecticut is Chicago lost their first game coming out of
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 6: the break against Washington.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 5: Does Atlanta have a bigger game up next? I think
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 5: they play New York, if I'm not mistaken. Let me see.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 6: If this would load faster yet, Atlanta does play New
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 6: York in the remaining two games of the regular season.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 5: They're playing New York for both of them. So possible
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 5: look ahead here.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 6: This is the last home game for Atlanta, though, so
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 6: maybe they will get up for it because it is
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 6: their final home game.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: But it's not, you know, senior night.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 6: It's not a college football game or whatever or basketball game,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 6: so whatever. I'd probably lean slightly toward Chicago here. Atlanta
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 6: is trying to win, though, because they're trying to get
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 6: at least home court. They want to at least be
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 6: one of the top four seeds here. in the playoffs
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 6: so they at least get a home series to start
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 6: the playoffs, but maybe that's not enough motivation. Atlanta's very public,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 6: 92% of tickets, 93% of the cash on them. It's
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 6: a high total in the mid-170s, so the money is
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 6: coming in towards the.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: Under in this one as well.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 6: Atlanta's a 13.5-point favorite. I think I would lean Chicago
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 6: here and fade the public in that one. It looks
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 6: like more of a public side on Atlanta, by the way,
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 6: than there is on Dallas, so And then we have
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 6: Seattle and Golden State also on Amazon Prime. It's a doubleheader,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 6: I guess, in the nighttime. Golden State did not get zigzagged,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 6: and they still covered against Portland in their most recent game. Again,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 6: Portland didn't shoot that well, man.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 5: It is what it was.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 6: Portland was close to covering. I think they missed the
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 6: cover by a few points there. Golden State, very good team.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 6: Will they have that much motivation against Seattle here, though?
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 6: Golden State's going to be one of the top few
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 6: teams in the playoffs anyway. They only have Portland yet
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 6: again next, so I don't think they really care about that.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 6: Seattle got killed in their first game coming back from the.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 6: From the break they got destroyed by the aces so
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 6: they might be in kind of bounce back mode here
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 6: and if you do like the underdog in this one
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 6: this is by far the lowest total it's in the
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 6: 150s it went up five points from a really low
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 6: total but it's still a low total so that makes
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 6: it it makes more sense to take the underdog in
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 6: a game like that uh the number is 12 and
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 6: a half 13 and a half here on Golden State.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 6: It did drop a little bit. Golden State has 87%
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 6: of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. But I
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 6: would lean to the dog in this one too with Seattle.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 6: I just think that all the favorites are going to
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 6: be a little bit overvalued and I just don't really
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 6: have a situation to grab onto in those games. So
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 6: I don't want any part of any of it though.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 6: And that's what we got, man. So we'll finish it
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 6: off here. We'll finish the show off. The plays today
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 6: are going to be.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 6: I don't know why StreamYard had the whole thing highlighted here.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 6: So you can go watch my football show still if
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 6: you want, but we have a bunch of football today.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 6: We're going to be on Bowling Green plus the points.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 6: Try to get the 24 on that because it is
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 6: a key number.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 5: Hopefully you can.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 6: UTEP plus 35, that's a key number as well, but
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 6: it gets less key when you get really high numbers
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 6: like that. But hopefully you can find that number too.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 6: UTSA plus 30 and a half. I know some ugly
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 6: big dogs again this week, but I like the spots
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 6: for all of those. I don't think we can find
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 6: a 31 on that. I'd rather have 31, but 31
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 6: out of the numbers that we have here, 31 is
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 6: the least key of these three games.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 5: And then we're also laying the 14 with UCLA.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 6: Although in my pick seven, they're making me lay 14.5
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 6: in that one. But I like the spot, so I
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 6: might be putting that on my pick seven anyway. And
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 6: then we have the one baseball play, Toronto, Texas, under eight.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 6: Those are the plays here today. We could do a
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 6: final market read if you want to here with my
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 6: plays here. Where's Bowling Green? I almost typed blowing.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 5: There it is. Uh, Bowling Green.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 6: The, the money's still agreeing with that fading the public. It's,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 6: it's a really low total. So you're getting a ton
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 6: of points. So that's good.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 5: It looks like you won't be able to get the 24,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 5: although I'd still do it at 23 and a half. Uh,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: the game's at noon.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 6: So I guess you could hang around a little bit
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 6: longer and see if you can find it. You're not
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 6: going to get worse than 23 and a half, but
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 6: it looks like the 24 is only were up there
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 6: briefly and they got taken out by the professionals.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 5: Probably a UTEP.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 5: It looks like you'd definitely get a 35 on this.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 6: Um, One book, I mean, well, that's Kalshi, so I
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 6: don't even know if I'm allowed to say their name,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 6: but I don't think you're going to get the 35
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 6: and a half anymore, but I think you will be
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 6: able to find a 35 on that. And the money
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 6: is actually kind of not agreeing with that at this point,
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 6: although Michigan is public, a little bit more money coming
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 6: out of Michigan. Hopefully that shifts before that game starts.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 6: For UTSA, the money is agreeing with that one still.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 6: That one's down to 30, so you're not going to
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 6: be able to get a better number than 30, 30.5
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 6: on that, but I think I would still agree with
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 6: it on that one, even though that is the highest total.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 6: But it looks like the market moves are agreeing with
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 6: me on these, man. And then UCLA, you could still
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 6: lay the four-team at UCLA at multiple outlets, it looks
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 6: like here. including the Roman Emperor's book and the Lion
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 6: Book of the M. And it still looks like Purdue
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 6: is a very public underdog in that game. So I
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 6: do like all four of those plays.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: So let's do it. That's going to do it. Learn
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: to Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone on Instagram. Like,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 5: subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 6: You'll get notified when I go live, like probably tonight
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 6: when I have to do the NFL show. Probably won't
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 6: be as late as it was last week because I'm
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 6: not going to a concert this time.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 5: Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Check it out. Uh,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 5: what else?
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 6: Covered in uke on YouTube. Uh, that'll be my, that's
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 6: my ukulele channel. Patreon.com slash learn to tote.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 5: If you want to support me that way, loser cast
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 5: every Tuesday night and the giants G spot podcast. No
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 5: idea if it's happening or not. That's going to do it.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 5: I appreciate everybody.
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 6: Um, yeah, that's because there are powerful people that are
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 6: behind all these market sites.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 5: So, um, I don't like it. I don't like them.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 5: Thank you, sir.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 6: I did not think this show was good at all,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 6: but baseball is very boring to a lot of people.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 6: It's not boring to me, but it's boring to a
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 6: lot of people, and I don't like the method of
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 6: handicapping for it. I'm just much more of a situational guy,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 6: so I feel way more confident.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 5: With the football stuff.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 6: Although baseball has been my second best sport pretty much
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 6: over the entire time that I've been doing this, so
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 6: behind NBA.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 5: That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 7: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 7: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 7: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 5: On Let me.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: me now Hold on, hold on.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 5: You're still here now.