Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 85 - 7/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 85 - 7/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 85 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by. Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Monday, a new week begins. Our.
• 0:39
  Final week here in July. Let's see if we can.
• 0:41
  Wrap up a good July with the last.
• 0:43
  Few days here as the calendar. Flips all the way to.
• 0:45
  August, Can you believe it? Football season is.
• 0:48
  Right in front of us guys. Anyway.
• 0:50
  Hope. You guys had a fantastic
• 0:52
  weekend. I know I had a good weekend and
• 0:54
  I think you had a good weekend too because we extended our UFC
• 0:58
  biting win streak to seven straight.
• 1:01
  Bouts. That's right, our guy Mokaev,
• 1:04
  Mikayev. Mikayev however you want to.
• 1:06
  Pronounce his name came through absolutely massive for the team
• 1:09
  and when we talk about how to approach UFC from a data.
• 1:13
  Driven betting perspective. That was the Hall of Fame
• 1:16
  blueprint there because we had Mikayev younger.
• 1:19
  Taller. Longer reach line.
• 1:21
  Move and a great bet split. Remember, he was 23.
• 1:24
  His opponent was thirty. He was 5 foot six.
• 1:27
  His opponent? Was 5 foot.
• 1:28
  Four, he had a 70 entry. Each his opponent had a. 68 inch
• 1:32
  he was only getting half the tickets but. 75% of dollars.
• 1:35
  He moved from -122 -, 165 I think we got CLV there too cuz
• 1:39
  he closed down like. -175 minus. 180 and the.
• 1:44
  Home Octagon advantage? That's right, he immigrated from
• 1:48
  Dagestan. To the UK and even when he won
• 1:51
  the bout. He gave a shout.
• 1:52
  Out to the UK for taking him in. As a as an immigrant, so.
• 1:56
  The home Octagon came through. For us but seriously guys,
• 1:59
  Younger, taller, longer reach line.
• 2:01
  Move, bet, split, intangibles all on Mikayev and.
• 2:05
  Mikayev got it done bigly. Unanimous decision.
• 2:09
  Mohammed The Punisher. Mikayev.
• 2:13
  So we got a good hit in the UFC there guys.
• 2:15
  Let's see if that we can take. That momentum into the.
• 2:17
  Final leak here in July, now turning the page here to a
• 2:21
  Monday. I have a four pack of sweats for
• 2:23
  you. Major League.
• 2:24
  Baseball. That's right, getting right back
• 2:25
  in onto the diamond. 4 bets overall.
• 2:28
  Including three sides 2. Of which are dogs.
• 2:30
  Let's see if we can get a couple dogs to bark.
• 2:33
  And we do have one total here because as as I always like to
• 2:35
  mention, I don't bet a lot. Of totals on the Dos Equis guy.
• 2:37
  I don't always bet totals, but when I do they scream to me,
• 2:40
  hey, come play me because. You're checking off all the
• 2:42
  boxes. So for three sides, one total
• 2:45
  for overall in today's. MLB Slate.
• 2:48
  Now one thing I do. Want to mention real quick.
• 2:50
  Because this ties into the first bit that I have pay attention.
• 2:53
  To. Scratch starting pitchers and
• 2:55
  trades. Because we are.
• 2:56
  Entering the trade deadline, I think when is it?
• 2:58
  It's this week, is it Tuesday or?
• 3:00
  Wednesday or Thursday, I don't know.
• 3:01
  It's this week. Anyway, it's coming up close
• 3:03
  here and you're starting to see a lot of moves we made and
• 3:05
  you're starting to see guys. Get traded, get scratched,
• 3:09
  there's going to be movement in the market.
• 3:10
  So again, be aware going into a game and Twitter's really a
• 3:14
  place for like, will you like? To go to get this information,
• 3:16
  I'm never going to call it X sorry, Elon Musk, it'll.
• 3:18
  Always be Twitter to me. But that's where we get our
• 3:20
  information first. So following local, following
• 3:24
  the big reporters here, you know, the guys like Jeff Passan,
• 3:27
  John Heyman, Rosenthal, you know, the big guys, the big
• 3:30
  names, you'll hear about it there.
• 3:32
  But of course, also if you wanted to follow, one of my
• 3:35
  favorite follows in Major League Baseball, which is great for
• 3:38
  trades as well as acquisitions, but really what I love them.
• 3:42
  For is just immediately putting out the MLB lineups as soon as
• 3:44
  they. Come out underdog, under score
• 3:47
  MLB. That is going to be.
• 3:49
  My go to when it comes to. Starting lineups.
• 3:52
  So that being said, let's start with ignore sweats here for
• 3:54
  today guys. Now I wanted to mention.
• 3:56
  Being aware of changes because of trades and stuff, because we
• 3:59
  had one here today. This is a game.
• 4:00
  That I bet earlier. Today there was a pitching.
• 4:03
  Change and I had to go read bet it.
• 4:05
  So I'm talking about 6. 40 PM Eastern Time, the Cleveland
• 4:08
  Guardians facing the Detroit Tigers.
• 4:11
  Now going into this one. We have the Cleveland Guardians
• 4:14
  60. Four or sorry?
• 4:15
  63 and 42 Just took two of three against the Phillies.
• 4:19
  They won yesterday's series. Finale 4 to 3 as a + 110 Rd.
• 4:22
  Dog flip side tigers. 52 and 55 they just.
• 4:27
  Dropped two of three. Against the.
• 4:28
  Twins they fell 5 nothing yesterday as a + 130 home dog.
• 4:33
  So for tonight's series opener, this is important.
• 4:35
  No changes for the Guardians. They were expected to start.
• 4:38
  Tanner BB. The righty.
• 4:40
  And he is going to start eight and four 3.5 O ERA.
• 4:43
  However, we have seen a change. When it comes to the Tiger
• 4:46
  starting pitcher? It was supposed to be Jack
• 4:48
  Flaherty, who looks like he might be getting dealt, because
• 4:51
  he was. Scratched.
• 4:52
  No injury. Typically when a starting
• 4:54
  pitcher has their name on the trade block and then there's
• 4:57
  their start gets scratched. Probably it's because there's a.
• 4:59
  Trade in the works here, so hey, by the time you're listening to.
• 5:02
  This pod maybe Flaherty will be on a new team.
• 5:04
  But anyway, as soon as Flaherty was scratched here, we have a
• 5:08
  new starting pitcher and I had to wait.
• 5:09
  On this. And it looks like it's going to
• 5:11
  be Bo Brisky. Bo Brisky.
• 5:14
  Is a right-handed pitcher 26 years old?
• 5:16
  On the year, he's one and one with.
• 5:18
  A 4.3. Three era he's a reliever, so
• 5:20
  I'm wondering if he's just going to be the.
• 5:21
  Opener here tonight. We have seen a big adjustment in
• 5:24
  the market ever. Since that news came down.
• 5:26
  That Flaherty got scratched and. Brisky will get the start so
• 5:30
  when we thought it was going to be Flaherty against against BB.
• 5:35
  This game opened a very. Short favorite for Cleveland.
• 5:36
  Cleveland. Was like -110 we saw a Detroit
• 5:39
  around a + 1. 100 home dog and immediately when I wrote about
• 5:42
  this game for visen.com. Which you can always check out
• 5:44
  around noon. Eastern Time for my Twitter.
• 5:46
  Account at Josh under Score Insights.
• 5:48
  You can get your homework. Done or maybe your appetizer
• 5:51
  before you get to the main course with the all systems go
• 5:53
  pod, but I was talking about hey.
• 5:55
  I like Cleveland early because Cleveland.
• 5:57
  Went from -110 up to -120. And they're getting about. 67%
• 6:01
  of money line bets. 70% of money line.
• 6:04
  Dollars they had about. A $0.10 Steam move in their
• 6:06
  favor, matching quite a few systems here.
• 6:08
  Sweet. Spot short Rd. favorites -130 or
• 6:11
  less. 1:53 and 1:28. 54. Percent this year, 2%.
• 6:16
  ROI. Cleveland, by the way.
• 6:18
  Great as a chalk bet. When they're favored, they tend
• 6:20
  to come through. 45 and 2168% with a 19%.
• 6:24
  ROI, they're the best. Chalk team in baseball and at
• 6:28
  the time we had a favorite. Low total, So total in that one
• 6:31
  was seven for your amount of expected run scored, again more
• 6:34
  likely. To come from quote UN quote that
• 6:35
  better team BB by the way. Three, uh, a on the road versus
• 6:39
  3.99 at home. So obviously he's been better on
• 6:41
  the road than at home. So I said hey, looks like.
• 6:44
  The play here is Cleveland getting a good Guardians team.
• 6:47
  At a pretty short price around -120 so I made that bet.
• 6:50
  Listed pitcher. Why listed pitcher?
• 6:53
  Because of situations like this. Now in this regard, listed
• 6:56
  pitcher is going to hurt. You a little bit because if you
• 6:57
  had bet Cleveland action and. I don't want to like paint the.
• 7:01
  Picture of this. Is why you should always bet
• 7:02
  action. They're just sometimes, like 99
• 7:05
  times out of 100, listed pitcher is going to.
• 7:06
  Protect you. Sometimes it hurts you slightly,
• 7:08
  for example Cleveland I bet listed.
• 7:11
  Pitcher at minus. 120 now with Detroit.
• 7:14
  Starting pitcher getting scratched and.
• 7:16
  Brisky coming in now. For Flaherty, the line came off
• 7:19
  the board, it reopened and now it's.
• 7:21
  All the way up to Cleveland -150.
• 7:24
  So if I had bet. Action I'd be happy.
• 7:26
  Right now I'd be locked. Into a -, 120 when now it's -1.
• 7:29
  50 but. Because I bet listed pitcher my
• 7:33
  bet. Is voided because Detroit.
• 7:34
  Starting pitcher got scratched and now one of the great things
• 7:38
  about. Listed pitcher is if you still
• 7:39
  like Cleveland, which I do, you can just go rebet the game.
• 7:42
  It's that simple, so. Now I'm going to play.
• 7:45
  Cleveland at -1. 50 because again.
• 7:48
  We had this pitching change line shot up.
• 7:51
  We did see the total tick up a. Little bit 7 up to 7 1/2.
• 7:53
  But you still have Cleveland. Favorite low total, but now you
• 7:56
  have Cleveland matching some other systems here.
• 7:58
  Rd. Favorites with Steam. $0.10 or
• 8:00
  more 63 percent 5% ROI. Favorite with steam versus team
• 8:04
  who missed the postseason Rd. Favorites we still have.
• 8:07
  Cleveland has a great chalk team here.
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  So you Add all up again. This is what we.
• 8:11
  Got to be aware of when we're entering the week.
• 8:13
  Of the MLB trade deadline, pitchers getting scratched and
• 8:16
  that can really mess up a handicap.
• 8:18
  And think of it this way, like if you flip.
• 8:20
  It the other way like let's. Say I like Detroit earlier today
• 8:24
  when this is just, you know. I don't.
• 8:25
  I'm on Cleveland. But let's just say for the sake
• 8:28
  of argument that I liked Detroit when they were around plus 100.
• 8:31
  Well, if. I bet.
• 8:32
  Listed PIT if I bet action on Detroit plus 100.
• 8:35
  I'd be screwed right now because now they're all the.
• 8:37
  Way up to plus 1:30. So I lost $0.30 if I had bet.
• 8:41
  Detroit, obviously, if you bet. Cleveland, you would have saved
• 8:43
  $0.30. My whole point being, don't get
• 8:46
  it in the guessing game of hey, hopefully this breaks by the
• 8:48
  way. Hopefully it doesn't always bet
• 8:50
  listed pitcher, you can just re bet the game.
• 8:52
  Can we? No.
• 8:53
  Longer get -120. Yes, unfortunately.
• 8:55
  But we can get a. -150. And hopefully we have a better
• 8:58
  chance of winning now that Detroit has a lesser pitcher on
• 9:00
  the bump. So that's just a test case
• 9:02
  action versus listed pitcher. Why it's?
• 9:04
  Important to know the difference.
• 9:06
  And how to attack it once something?
• 9:08
  Changes like a pitcher getting scratched either way whether you
• 9:11
  did. Bet Cleveland -120 action or
• 9:13
  you're going to bet them right now -150 that's going to be our
• 9:16
  bet here for today's pod. Cleveland at -150 Keep on
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  cruising. 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's go to the Big
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  Apple for an interleague match up here between the Minnesota
• 9:27
  Twinkies and the New York Mets. Now going into it, the.
• 9:30
  Twins are 58 and 40. Six.
• 9:32
  They just took two. Or three against the
• 9:34
  aforementioned. Tigers one.
• 9:35
  Yesterday's series finale 5. Nothing as a -, 1. 40 Rd.
• 9:40
  favorite conversely. The Mets, they've turned it on.
• 9:43
  They're. 55 and 50. Remember they had a terrible
• 9:45
  start to the year. I think at one point they're. 5
• 9:47
  and 16. Another five games, about 500.
• 9:50
  But they split A4. Game series against the Braves.
• 9:51
  They won. The first two, they lost.
• 9:53
  The next two they lost. Nine to two yesterday.
• 9:55
  As a -. 110 home favorite so. For tonight's Inter League
• 9:58
  Series opener. Let's look at the pitching
• 10:00
  matchup as of now. No issues both these teams.
• 10:03
  Again. Looking for a postseason spot?
• 10:05
  Probably not going to trade these starters, so I think we're
• 10:08
  good on this one, but. Simeon Woods Richardson, a
• 10:11
  righty going for the Twinkies. He's three and one with a three.
• 10:14
  .27 ER a. He'll be opposed by the lefty
• 10:17
  Jose Quintana. Who's five and six with a four?
• 10:19
  Point O2 ERA. So what have you seen?
• 10:21
  Across the market here well. This line opened with the New
• 10:25
  York Mets. Listed around a -. 125 home
• 10:28
  favorite Minnesota around a plus one O 5 row dog.
• 10:31
  And the public is leaning. Toward the Mets.
• 10:33
  At home, bigger name team. Obviously they've played pretty
• 10:36
  well over the last month or so. So right now you're getting 56.
• 10:39
  Percent of money line bets on the New York Mets.
• 10:42
  However, despite a majority of bets on the Mets, the Mets line
• 10:46
  is dropping guys. Mets open -125 They're now down
• 10:49
  to. -120 - 1. 15. So this line is falling.
• 10:54
  Away from. The Mets toward Minnesota,
• 10:56
  Minnesota. Went from getting a little.
• 10:58
  Plus money plus one O 5 to now laying it around -1 O 5 S the
• 11:02
  line, even though the Mets are the popular bet is going away
• 11:05
  from the. Mets toward the unpopular play.
• 11:07
  Minnesota so you. Guys know what that.
• 11:08
  Means right when the line goes away from the popular side.
• 11:11
  Receiving majority of bets. And toward the unpopular side.
• 11:14
  Receiving the minority. Bets that is called RLM reverse
• 11:19
  line movement. So it tells me we got.
• 11:22
  Smart money here grabbing. Minnesota as the lines.
• 11:24
  Going in their favor. Again, despite being the
• 11:26
  unpopular play, Minnesota has a pretty good bet split.
• 11:29
  The twins are only getting. 44% of bets.
• 11:32
  But. 57% of dollars, so a nice sharp contrarian.
• 11:35
  Low bets, higher dollars, bet split in addition to that line
• 11:38
  move in their favor. Twins, meanwhile, are 12:00 and
• 11:42
  5:00. In Woods, Richardson, 17, starts
• 11:44
  when he takes. The bump, Typically they play
• 11:46
  route, they play pretty well. He has a 2.86.
• 11:49
  ERA and four July starts. He's only given up seven runs in
• 11:52
  22 innings. Pitched and by the way.
• 11:55
  Minnesota Twins are facing a lefty tonight, Jose.
• 11:58
  Quintana the veteran, Did you know?
• 12:00
  Minnesota is the number one team in baseball.
• 12:03
  Batting average. Against lefties, They're hitting
• 12:05
  277 against lefties this year. 1st in all of baseball.
• 12:10
  So this is a. Blueprint play for us guys from
• 12:12
  a data-driven perspective. Publix on Mets yet lines going
• 12:15
  to Minnesota They have a good bat split pitcher on the bump
• 12:19
  has. Performed well and we have.
• 12:20
  Some good bats here going up against a lefty.
• 12:22
  So you Add all up, I'm on the Minnesota Twinkies, guys.
• 12:25
  I was able to get Twinkies at. Plus 100.
• 12:27
  So even money. Now you're looking at Twinkies.
• 12:29
  Around -1 O 5 Let's go Minnesota now.
• 12:33
  Let's look at a divisional showdown here.
• 12:35
  Kansas City Royals. And the Chicago White Sox now
• 12:39
  going to this one. We have the.
• 12:42
  Kansas City Royals just pull. This up for you guys coming in
• 12:46
  with a record of 50. 7 and 49 now.
• 12:49
  The Royals, in their last series, lost.
• 12:52
  Two or three against the cubbies.
• 12:53
  They've lost 4. Of their last five, scuffling a
• 12:55
  bit here, but not as bad as how the White Sox are scuffling.
• 13:00
  They're 27 and 81 on the year they have.
• 13:02
  Lost. Let me count this up.
• 13:04
  Oh my God, 123456789 They're they're O and 10 since the All
• 13:10
  Star break. So if you want to bet against
• 13:12
  the White Sox, I'm not going to blame you here.
• 13:14
  Now I'm going to. Attack this game but not.
• 13:17
  From a money line perspective, I was intrigued.
• 13:19
  By just laying it with Kansas City.
• 13:21
  You know, the line did move a little bit in their favor.
• 13:23
  They open -165 -, 170. They're creeping up to -175 I
• 13:28
  did have some system matches. The one thing that scared me
• 13:30
  though is they're getting like 95% of bets, so it's just an
• 13:33
  obvious play to take. KC if you did want to go -1 and
• 13:37
  a. Half, I mean that's.
• 13:38
  Available to you at like. -110 - 1. 15.
• 13:41
  But I located a bet here on the total which caught my eye and
• 13:44
  with the bet that I located is the OVA.
• 13:47
  That's right, I'm going to go over.
• 13:48
  I'd rather hopefully cash A a juice bet around. -120 to the.
• 13:53
  Over versus laying a minus. 175 S anyway.
• 13:56
  Let's talk about the pitching matchup, then I'm.
• 13:57
  Going to tell you why. It's so important to get this
• 13:59
  triggering number, although it's moving now and I don't know if
• 14:02
  it'll be available once you hear this pod.
• 14:04
  But anyway, going into it, we have big reason why I like the
• 14:08
  over pitching matchup. We have Alec Marsh.
• 14:10
  Going for Kansas City, he's. Seven and seven with a 4.75 ERA,
• 14:14
  but in the month of July and four starts he has an ERA of 7.8
• 14:18
  O you look at the flip side here with Chris Flexen two and ten
• 14:22
  5.25 ERA he has a 5. .6 O ERA. And five July starts.
• 14:26
  We have two pitchers here. High eras on the year.
• 14:30
  And getting worse as the season. Goes on they really gotten
• 14:32
  smashed here in the last last month now big reason why I like
• 14:37
  the over so it open at 9:00. What's notable to me is it open
• 14:40
  nine under -115? -120 now it's nine over -120.
• 14:46
  And I do see some shops. Going to 9 1/2.
• 14:48
  So this is super important if you guys remember.
• 14:50
  Last week. What's funny is.
• 14:52
  You know, sometimes you. Forget your wins, but you.
• 14:54
  Never forget your losses. And if you guys remember, I
• 14:57
  forget, was this Thursday night, Friday night anyway.
• 15:00
  Took the over Oakland A's and the.
• 15:03
  Angels remember that was a nine that got bet up to 9 and a half
• 15:07
  and they. Screwed us because they.
• 15:08
  Had nine runs I think through 7 innings.
• 15:11
  In the last three innings, they didn't score a single run.
• 15:14
  But anyway, the game landed. On Nine and Wise Guys.
• 15:17
  Bet the over 9 up to 9. And a half.
• 15:19
  So we got a bad nine and a. Half we lost the wise guys who
• 15:22
  betted. Early pushed.
• 15:24
  Obviously you'd rather push than lose, so whole point being is.
• 15:27
  Here is. Try to get the.
• 15:29
  Over 9, Shop around. I see.
• 15:31
  Maybe only not one. .1 or two books at 9:00.
• 15:34
  Over -120 if. Not I will go 9 1/2.
• 15:37
  Over again, I don't love it. But you get still getting.
• 15:41
  A lot of respected. Money to this over the whole
• 15:43
  point being? Is the triggering number is
• 15:45
  critical, so if. All you have available to you is
• 15:47
  9. And a half right now, I'd wait
• 15:49
  this thing out. Because it's an 810.
• 15:50
  Game you know between now and then maybe it does take back
• 15:54
  down to 9. Or of course, use this as
• 15:56
  another reason why you should shop around.
• 15:58
  Open multiple accounts at several different.
• 16:00
  Sports books so you can. Find that time.
• 16:02
  But here's why I really like the nine in particular over 9 or 9
• 16:06
  1/2 now I guess if you're playing this number.
• 16:08
  Only 65% of bats. Are on the over, but 92% of.
• 16:12
  Money, money, money, money is on the over.
• 16:15
  That is a nice what is that 27% smart money discrepancy?
• 16:21
  Also the weather. Looks pretty good in the windy
• 16:23
  Windy City. It's about 70. 5° but wind is
• 16:25
  blowing out to dead center. 5 to 10 mph now.
• 16:29
  It doesn't hurt that when you're on an over.
• 16:31
  The home team is the. Dog because theoretically you're
• 16:34
  probably going to get that extra half inning at bat on the in the
• 16:37
  bottom of the ninth if you're on an over with a.
• 16:39
  Favorite. That's the home team.
• 16:40
  You know, you may not get that last at bat, but also I'm going
• 16:43
  to. Bank on these bullpens hopefully
• 16:45
  getting lit up because the Kansas City Penn has an area of
• 16:48
  4.27. That's the 8th.
• 16:49
  Worst in baseball The White Sox pen has an area of 4.69, the
• 16:53
  third worst in baseball. So you have a #9 that's been bet
• 16:58
  up to 9 and a half of many books across the market. 2 pitchers
• 17:02
  who have gotten lit up. Good weather, wind blowing out,
• 17:05
  home dog last at bat too bad bullpens.
• 17:08
  Great bat split. Smells like an over to me guys.
• 17:11
  Again. I was able to find 9 / -, 120.
• 17:14
  Do everything you can to. Find the nine over.
• 17:17
  If not, you want to play the 9 1/2.
• 17:19
  Hey, that might be your only. Option, but at least wait it out
• 17:21
  to try to see. If it can come back down to 9
• 17:25
  prior to our first pitch here, so.
• 17:27
  Either way, Kansas City over 9. 9 1/2.
• 17:30
  I'd hate to see a repeat of it landing on 9 and we lose if we
• 17:32
  got a late 9. And a half, but hopefully this
• 17:34
  is a 12 to four-game. How about that?
• 17:37
  And we cash this over. So let's go over 9 / 9 1/2
• 17:40
  Kansas City and the White Sox now.
• 17:42
  Last game of the night that I cannot wait to sweat.
• 17:44
  Because it features the. Best and most electric young
• 17:48
  pitcher in baseball. But I'm going to bet against
• 17:51
  that electric young pitcher. Pittsburgh Pirates.
• 17:54
  Houston Astros, 8:10 PM. Eastern Time.
• 17:56
  First pitch background here. We got the Buckos coming in. 53
• 17:59
  and 52. Just dropped two or three.
• 18:01
  Against the D backs but did avoid the.
• 18:03
  Sweep they won six to five an extra innings yesterday, cashing
• 18:06
  as a plus one O 5 road dog. On the other hand, the Stroh.
• 18:09
  'S 55 and 50. Similar to the Mets little bit,
• 18:12
  they struggled early. They've turned it on five games
• 18:15
  below 500. Just took two of three against
• 18:17
  the Dodgers, but. Could not get the sweep.
• 18:19
  They lost the finale yesterday. 6:00 to 2:00.
• 18:21
  As a -. 130 home favorite, so pitching match up here.
• 18:25
  You guys know who that? Rookie phenom is.
• 18:27
  Paul Skeens 6 and. 11.93 ER a he'll be.
• 18:31
  Opposed by the righty Jake. Bloss, Owen 16.9 for ER, a So
• 18:36
  this game open with the Pirates pretty hefty favorite around
• 18:38
  -150 -. 155 Skeens versus Jake Bloss as Sounds like the
• 18:45
  rematch. The mismatch of the century,
• 18:46
  right? Pittsburgh all day.
• 18:48
  Well, the public's going Pittsburgh, they love.
• 18:50
  Skeens I. Remember when I was younger?
• 18:52
  Pedro Martinez. That was my favorite picture of
• 18:55
  all time. It was appointment viewing every
• 18:57
  time Pedro took the bump. Now Skeens is kind of like the
• 19:00
  new Pedro. But anyway.
• 19:02
  Skeens is where the. Public wants to go.
• 19:04
  They're going to back. The rookie phenom. 72% of bets
• 19:08
  are on the Pirates, but the Pirates open -155 they're down
• 19:12
  to -130 Why is the line going? Away from Pittsburgh and toward
• 19:16
  Houston. If Pittsburgh is the big popular
• 19:19
  bet here tells me we have sharp reverse line movement on the
• 19:22
  Astros. I want to get behind that sharp
• 19:24
  movement. So the Astros went from getting
• 19:26
  plus 140 now down to plus one. 15 some shops even.
• 19:30
  Inching down to plus 110 so I love the fact that the lines.
• 19:33
  Going to Houston, even though everyone's backing skeins.
• 19:36
  Again, tells me smart money's on the Stroh.
• 19:37
  'S now Houston. Going to bank on their.
• 19:40
  Bats hopefully getting the skeins and getting to him is.
• 19:43
  Can you give up like three runs? He usually gives up zero or
• 19:45
  none, but anyway. Stroh's are hitting 262 on the
• 19:49
  year. 4. 192 runs. Scored Pittsburgh.
• 19:51
  'S hitting two 32436 runs. Scored Stroh's, meanwhile.
• 19:56
  Are 8:00 and 7:00. 53% with a 12%.
• 19:59
  ROI as a dog against the team who missed.
• 20:02
  The playoffs the previous year, that's the situation they're in
• 20:04
  tonight. And also Houston, they're
• 20:06
  batting 262 against righty's. Second best in baseball?
• 20:10
  Pittsburgh. 'S only hitting 227 against
• 20:12
  Righty's, ranking 26th, but this is the most heavily.
• 20:15
  Bet Game of the night, everybody and their mother is on
• 20:17
  Pittsburgh, yet the sun keeps. Dropping toward Houston.
• 20:20
  So I think this is a good opportunity to.
• 20:21
  Back the Stroh's I got Houston guys at +1. 15 now some.
• 20:26
  Books again inching down closer to plus 110.
• 20:29
  So for tonight. Can we get a couple?
• 20:31
  Dogs to bark. Twins in Houston, can we get
• 20:34
  Cleveland to come through? With that pitching change.
• 20:36
  And can we get the Kansas City White Sox?
• 20:38
  Over. Let's get ten runs or more over
• 20:41
  9 / 9 1/2, depending on what number you got.
• 20:43
  Let's try to get three or four. And eke out a.
• 20:45
  Winning night now that about does it for episode 85 of the
• 20:49
  all systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm but of
• 20:53
  course this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up I
• 20:55
  give you some insight some information and then you.
• 20:58
  I ask a favor of you. So let's start with the the
• 21:01
  thank you that. I would like to give you a thank
• 21:02
  you for listening each day. Pulling up a chair to the a
• 21:05
  virtual bar, sweating, sharp contrarian plays with me on a
• 21:08
  daily basis means the world that we've created this data-driven.
• 21:11
  Community. To bet with our heads and not
• 21:13
  our heart. Monitoring the market.
• 21:15
  Not betting games based on favoritism or bias.
• 21:19
  So if you enjoy the pod, if the pod has helped you.
• 21:21
  To cash some bets if the pod has helped you.
• 21:23
  To become a UFC biting. Fanatic making data-driven bets,
• 21:27
  left and right cash and tickets. Then let me know you appreciate
• 21:31
  the pod by please giving it five stars.
• 21:34
  If you're able to review this podcast wherever you get your
• 21:36
  podcasts, whatever platform. But ideally Spotify or iTunes.
• 21:40
  Those are the two most popular ways to listen.
• 21:42
  If you could give it five stars, that would mean a lot to me.
• 21:44
  It would really help us to rise up the charts, rise up the
• 21:47
  ratings, gain more eyeballs, gain more credibility.
• 21:49
  Also if you want to. Hit the follow button so that
• 21:52
  you get alerted as soon as the. Pod drops, that'll be great.
• 21:55
  And if you want to recommend it to a friend, I always love
• 21:57
  trying to grow something organically.
• 21:59
  Not paying for an ad, but hey, word of mouth, maybe your buddy
• 22:02
  says, hey, I've been listening to this pod.
• 22:04
  I kind of liked his approach to betting.
• 22:05
  It's all about the numbers. It's not opinion.
• 22:07
  Oh, what's it called? Oh the all systems go pod boom.
• 22:10
  You're much more inclined to listen if your friend tells you
• 22:13
  or your colleague or Co worker or family member versus you
• 22:16
  know, you know someone else paying for a Facebook ad or
• 22:19
  Twitter ad. So that's first.
• 22:21
  Secondly, if you enjoy this pot and you want to make my day, let
• 22:25
  me know. You appreciate the hard work
• 22:26
  that I put in grinding in the arena covering the sports
• 22:29
  betting market from a data-driven perspective.
• 22:31
  Guess what? You can.
• 22:32
  Make my day by buying my book. That's right, I'm an author.
• 22:35
  I'm not just a sports betting analyst.
• 22:37
  I wrote a book. It's called the.
• 22:38
  Everything Guide to sports Betting.
• 22:40
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 22:41
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 22:44
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 22:47
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 22:49
  a bankroll management plan chapters in all the major
• 22:52
  sports. It's all included in my book The
• 22:54
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 22:55
  So support the team, buy it for that.
• 22:57
  Friend of yours who parlays everything and has no bankroll
• 23:00
  management plan mean a lot to me.
• 23:02
  Guys, just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
• 23:06
  Sports. Spending when I see at the book
• 23:07
  I'm. Going to sign my book for you at
• 23:09
  the book. I'm going to buy you a beer or
• 23:11
  buy you a ginger ale. But seriously guys, thank you so
• 23:14
  much. Of course, if you haven't done
• 23:16
  it yet. I want you to go.
• 23:17
  Go sign up for my two favorite sports betting apps.
• 23:21
  The first, of course, is Rhythm. Rhythm does a fantastic job of
• 23:24
  powering this podcast. Rhythm is hard at work.
• 23:27
  I actually have a call with one of the members at Rhythm to go
• 23:30
  over some suggestions. And get ready for the football
• 23:33
  season. So we already have data-driven
• 23:36
  analytics, predictions and models that are popping up,
• 23:39
  right? Now for NFL Week 1.
• 23:41
  For college football week one. But rhythm, of course, what I
• 23:44
  love about it, it's all data, no opinion data and it's AI driven
• 23:48
  data, AI from data scientists and.
• 23:50
  Machine learning engineers from MIT providing models.
• 23:54
  Either the rhythm models or you can create your own.
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  Models, which is awesome then. Alerts you to system matches.
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  So rhythm is great. Obviously right now for golf,
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  that's your main one if you're betting golf or.
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  The AI caddy hole to hole. Advantage, opportunity, or of
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  course. WNBA.
• 24:09
  Although that's off right now because of the Olympics, but
• 24:12
  WNBA will be will be back. Soon, and then pretty soon.
• 24:14
  We're going to football back, which I cannot wait for.
• 24:16
  And then NBA is not. I guess that's October, maybe
• 24:19
  that's not far either. So sign up for Rhythm, give it a
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  7 day free trial. I think you're going to like it.
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  You can even start your. Get a leg up on handicapping for
• 24:27
  the upcoming football season. Secondly, go sign up for a.
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  Juice Reel membership that's. Right Juice Reel, My buddy Ricky
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  Gold. Right right now we got Robo
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  Jackson on fire. Robo is the hardest working.
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  AI bot. It basically Combs all the data
• 24:41
  and shoots out two best. Bets each day at noon.
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  Robo Jackson is 1/7 of the last. 8.
• 24:47
  Bets there, so if you want to follow those bets.
• 24:49
  Or if you want. To follow the arbitrage bets
• 24:51
  I've been. Tweeting a lot about arbitrage
• 24:53
  bets because I think it's. Just really fascinating, you
• 24:56
  know, in terms of, hey, betting is really hard, but if you
• 24:58
  actually you don't. Find these situations which.
• 25:01
  Are almost impossible to find on your own, but basically with the
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  the juice field membership. It automatically gives you
• 25:08
  system matches. So Alec Bohm.
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  Double s. You bet 100.
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  Bucks at, you know, FanDuel at some you know -110 and then you
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  bet 100 bucks on you know, over at.
• 25:19
  DraftKings at plus 1/15. Or you bet, 100.
• 25:22
  And 15 Whatever the case may be, Juice field will give you the
• 25:25
  exact ratio you need to guarantee you're going to make.
• 25:27
  4 bucks and what's funny is I've been tweeting this out and a
• 25:30
  couple people are like 4 bucks. Who cares?
• 25:33
  Why are you even tweeting about four bucks?
• 25:35
  That's not really the point. The point is that the membership
• 25:37
  which costs. 899 a month, you hit a couple.
• 25:40
  Arbitrages it already pays for. Itself and if you want to grind
• 25:43
  out. Think of it this way, I don't I
• 25:46
  I tweeted it the other day but if you get like 3 bucks a day.
• 25:50
  You do it each day. That's. 21 bucks a week.
• 25:53
  That's 80 bucks a month. That's I'm bad at math.
• 25:57
  What is that? It's it's a lot in terms of a
• 26:00
  year. So the whole point being is you.
• 26:02
  Extrapolate these free cups of coffee.
• 26:04
  That's what I consider them cups of coffee $2.50 cents, $4.80,
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  six dollars, $3. They're little bites at the
• 26:12
  apple, but it kind of it allows you to build your bankroll and
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  if you like, you know, if you have multiple accounts, it's
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  it's a great way. To just consistently.
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  Get little money deposits there each time to help you.
• 26:25
  That you can use. To bet your regular games, so
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  whether it's arbitrage, sharp mush opportunities, the robo
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  Jackson best bets. All included as well as.
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  Syncing up your sports book to the sharp bets there with Juice
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  Real. Go sign up for Juice Real.
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  Believe me, it's awesome and it's worth it, but both juice.
• 26:41
  Really. And rhythm.
• 26:42
  You can sign up. Very easily by clicking the
• 26:44
  custom link located in the bio description.
• 26:47
  Of this podcast, you can also click the link that is pinned to
• 26:50
  the top of my Twitter page at Josh under score insights.
• 26:53
  So that about does it for a big Monday as we wrap up the last
• 26:57
  few days here in July. But this is the part of the pod
• 27:01
  where, number one, I give you my parting words, which are as
• 27:04
  always and as following. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 27:08
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode.
• 27:09
  Island the brook in New Hampshire.
• 27:11
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut.
• 27:13
  At the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
• 27:17
  Springfield, the my neck of the woods and Massachusetts or of
• 27:20
  course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 27:22
  Where? Billy.
• 27:22
  Walters sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible
• 27:25
  is found, the South Point or Sweat, and sharp contrarian
• 27:28
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 27:30
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 27:33
  you're going. To walk up to me.
• 27:34
  And you're going to show me a Mokaev, Muhammad, the Punisher
• 27:37
  Mokaev. Biting UFC best bet pick.
• 27:41
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 27:43
  you. We're going to post about the
• 27:44
  book Sweat. Sharp contrarian plays all night
• 27:46
  long. I'll be honest guys, I'm already
• 27:48
  looking at the MMA slate for the third of the 3rd of August,
• 27:53
  which is this upcoming Saturday. I cannot wait for our next
• 27:56
  sweat. In the Octagon.
• 27:58
  But that about does everyone another pot in the.
• 28:00
  Books here. I'll leave you with this, of
• 28:02
  course. As always, stay sharp, stay
• 28:05
  contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
• 28:07
  side of the house. Always be with.
• 28:09
  The smart money never against it will smart money when every
• 28:12
  time. Unfortunately, not.
• 28:14
  Betting's crazy. You know unforeseen things can
• 28:16
  happen bad. Beats team.
• 28:18
  Doesn't come through for us. You taking over their snake bit,
• 28:21
  you taking under. They score a million runs,
• 28:23
  that's going to happen. That's just betting.
• 28:25
  Betting is basically risking an unknown outcome.
• 28:28
  But here's the thing. If we consistently stay true to
• 28:31
  the model. Against the public, with the
• 28:33
  house, with the pros. Flat bet.
• 28:35
  Avoid parlays. Get that?
• 28:36
  Closing line value if we. Can do that long term make beds
• 28:39
  with her make bets with her head and not our heart we're going to
• 28:41
  come out on top we're. Going to be successful.
• 28:43
  Sports betters, so enjoy the sweats every night tonight,
• 28:46
  guys. Let's see if we can get three
• 28:48
  out of four of these MLB plays. Go Guardians.
• 28:50
  Go twins. Go Stroh's.
• 28:52
  Let's get a lot. Of Runs KC White Sox.
• 28:55
  But I wish you the best of luck. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 28:57
  episode 86 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
• 29:02
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 29:04
  Have a great Monday night.