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Best Bets NFL Week 5 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is our week five Thursday NFL episode. This is the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: episode where we get feedback from the wise guys who
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: listen to the show. We make our survivor pick and
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: build our money line Underdog Round, Robin Parlay, Big Big Week.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: For that last week, we give out our Foxhole bet.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: We give out our Big Balls bet of the week.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We narrow down our picks for the free to play
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: contest because it is our old pal Colin Cowhard likes
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: to say there is a sea of money out there,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: because there's a sea of money out there. If you
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: want to follow along with our official bets, you can
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: check them out on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: dot com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action Network app,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: you can also track all the bets. Simon and I
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: lock in by following two accounts, The Fhaves five and
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in my co host,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compatrick, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: He oh, so I'm in dude. Last week everything seems
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: so clear, we were locked in. This week a little
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: bit of a murky mass of short lines and conflicting
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: market moves.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh, we'll get into in the sharp calls.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: A lot of split people this week, a lot of
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: guys going against each other, a lot of different opins
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: and you know that we're getting into no more. You
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: don't know what these teams are, who they really are yet.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: You're kind of figuring out what teams really are and
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: who they are at this point, and that's going to
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: make for a lot of conflicts and a lot of
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: people think in their opinions rights for what you just said.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Last week fell pretty easy. This week, I'm having a
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: tough time getting to the five chat. I'm not gonna lie.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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  Speaker 1: At bet three six five. You must be twenty one
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  Speaker 1: and over or eighteen and over in Kentucky and present
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  Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or Virginia. Sorry,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: gambling problem. Call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or one eight hundred bets
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Week
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: five is approaching opportunities we think are all over the board.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Let's not deal you, d Ally Simon. It's time for
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: sharp calls.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do man?
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I'll start off by given given chat as flowers Chat
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: was all over this line. You saw it not? I
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: poo pooed him on it the Titans. I told him, yes,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: we did a show, and I told him a really
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: smart group was coming in heavy on the Titans. I
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: don't know. I'm pretty stubborn. Chat. I've just been betting it.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: I've taken the two and a half on the cold.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: It's like, I'm not phased by this group, but I
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: should be because they're really good. But again, the game
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: we're going to dive into, I don't really get it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: The love of the Tennessee just feels like it's overboard
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: about what happened last week. Like I understand they looked
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: incredible against the Bengals. For the line to move now
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: what is it three and a half? Four points?
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this one's moved to If you're seeing two and
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: a half, that is astonishing to me, dude. It was
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: at one and a half Indie minus one and a half.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Now Indy plus two and a half. Jesus Christ.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, money moves, bro. But at the same time, I
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: love it where it's like if I like aside and
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: the number moves against me. Obviously I respect these guys
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: and everything like that, but there's certain times where it's
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: like I got to put my foot down if I
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: believe in a team, and in this spot with this
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Colts team, I just I think they're undevaluating how good
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richard is going to do against this Titans defense.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: So that's the first one that jumped out, just because
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: I knew you're all over that one. I've been betting
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: the Colts. It went against me. Sucks, but that's gonna
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: happen one game you were on that I was just
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: unsure of. And it's probably gonna be in either a
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: big Balls or a Foxhole bet. It's that Pittsburgh number.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Talk to a lot of guys that love that number.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: They're all over Pittsburgh in this spot. They're really though again,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: everyone's different about how they go about it. I feel
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: like most of the people I'm talking to that love
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh spot or the old school trend guys, And
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: like I guess there's a bunch of trends that point
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: to this. I think I saw another trend of it
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: was something I had to do with them getting blown
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: up by twenty points like the last two years or
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: four and oh in these in these spots ats after
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: they lose a game by twenty points or more. So,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: it kind of caters to what Chad said of Tomlin
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: usually gets his guys up after bad losses and they
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: bounce back in these games. You ain't new to us
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: no more, now you know what I mean. I'm trying
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: to get there with this one. It's just really hard
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: for me knowing it's Kenny Picketer, Mitch Trubisky that I'm backing.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: I just don't have much faith in them. But it's
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: more of a faith faith bet in Tomlin in this defense.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: So not shocked at that. I talked to a bunch
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: of guys and they love that number. Another game we
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: can't do for contest. The pros love They like the
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Jaguars playing the Bills. They just like the whole scenario
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: of the Jaguars staying in London, the Bills traveling neutral site.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: This Bills team is on fire. Everyone's gonna wake up
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: slam this number. Would not be shocked to see this
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: number go back up, but now I've seen it come down,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: so I've seen it a couple of fives. Now it's
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: move from five and a half. So definitely a game
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: to keep your eye on. Again. The game will go
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: through quick so we can break it down ourselves Atlanta.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: The Pros love that it feels the same suppli as
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the Colts, where it's like we're buying low on a
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: team playing against a team that is getting all the
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: hype this whole week, and that's what this Houston team is. Like,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: everyone's talking Houston this whole week. So the number has
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: not moved it like I think we gave it out
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: here at two and a half one and a half
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: and it's it's kind of stayed there. So definitely another
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: interesting one of there's pros on both sides. And the
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: final one again we talked about we missed the best
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: of the number, especially for contest. They love the Cardinals
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: this week against the Bengals. Chad, we've seen this number
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: now come down from when it opened at six five
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: and a half to five, to four and a half,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: to three and a half to three. Now it's at
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: two and a half at a couple of books. So
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: I know we said we were like, yeah, we'll take
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: the Bengals, and I guess at two and a half,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we can Chad like it, just
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: not even the fact that I know really smart guys
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: on the other side, it's like Selim's fishy here if
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: the books are begging now for your two and a
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: half money on the Spangles team. So yeah, definitely a
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: week where we're splitting a lot of ones and another
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: game we didn't even talk about Denver. I love that spot.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: Another really smart group. I respect. They really like this
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: spot for Zach Wilson, and my argument against it is like,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: this kid is inconsistent. This is such a letdown spot
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: for Zack Wilson after having the game of his life
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: against the Chiefs in primetime. Chad, I might let me
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: put this one in. Who knows, because we have a
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: bunch of games like this where it's like like a
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Lake Minnesota, I like the forty nine ers, Like, we
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: have a lot of games we do like. But it
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: is interesting where we're getting Denver under a field goal
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: at home against Zach Wilson. It's like, how do we
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: not take this number here? So, uh, definitely a fun
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: week to dive into on all these games.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Let's just get into it because like every game you
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: talked about, I feel like it is split down the middle.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a lot of different different opinions and
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: different models and views on different teams and how there
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: are seasons will play out right now. So a lot
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: of head buttons this week.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of the
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: favorites live on YouTube. For those who are doing it
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: right now on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. So the other
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: day on Tuesday, when we were doing the podcast, you know,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams will give us these amazing stats, and I
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: chose one to make the theme of the week was
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: that for the past five years, when there were fifty
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: one percent or more of the bets, meaning the public
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: is on a side, that side would usually be the
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: losing side for the past five years in aggregate at
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the end of the season. Right now through four weeks,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the public is winning more often than not against the spread.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So that was the theme for Tuesday, the theme for today,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: and it's why it's relevant to what Simon was just
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: talking about with with the Colts and the Titans. Is
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: closing line valuable? Closing line value, Simon, We've talked about this,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: like what is the value of getting closing the line?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So asked Evan to look it up the last five years,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: how valuable was it to get the best of the number.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So for those who are listening for the first time,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Simon and I always talk about this, like getting the
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: best of the number, is an all betting axiom, and
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: what it means is you want to be when the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: number is in the giving you the best advantage. So
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: with the Bengals and the Cardinals game that Simon just
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: mentioned on Sunday night, when Simon and I did the podcast,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that line was Bengals minus six on the road at Arizona.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: While we were doing the podcast, it moved to five
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: and a half and then nine to five. Simon is saying,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: it's now at two and a half. If you still
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: like the Cardinals, you're going to be at a disadvantage
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: if you bet the two and a half because it
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: opened at six. Following the line movement versus the opening line,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you win it a fifty eight percent clip, meaning if
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: you've gotten the best of the number, if you have
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: bet the six, you'd have a better chance of covering
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: against the spread over the past five years than if
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: you're betting the two and a half. So it's something
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to think about.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: You want me to push you back against it?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, do it.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: It was six'm Sunday night. That's where we're going off
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: of right here. For this example, there is like eight
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: dudes who got down one hundred bucks on that number. Like,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, it's always great to get the best
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: of the number. You get no money down. I get
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: where people come from about that. I hate to throw
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: that I got the best number of people's face because
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: I got pennies down. Like books aren't taking big bets
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: at seven thirty on Sunday on week two. They're letting
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the pros come in, take a little taste, and then
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: they move the number. So of course it should be
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: a really high percentage that the pros who get a
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: little bit down on the best number is always going
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: to be better than the guy running in at eleven
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: fifty or twelve fifty to get his bets sound right
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: before kickoff. A great example. We took that Saints plus
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: one and a half all week going against that Green
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Bay team, and then two hours before kickoff it totally flipped.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: That to me is even better example where it's like
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: that best of the number really didn't matter and you
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: would all week to get it. Me and chatter and
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: the risk, we don't mind buying out of positions if
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: guys get hurt or things come out. If you're a
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: small time guy with not that much money to put down,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: be patient. Right, use your resources. You have these podcasts,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: different things like that before you make all your bets
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: like we do early in the week because i love
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: closing line value, but I'm also like, I'm not going
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: to just stay away from a line because it's like, oh,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: well the value is gone like that jets one. People
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: are like, are you still going to take it? It's
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: only seven and a half down. It's like, don't be
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: mad if you missed it in the lands on eight.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: You are taking a risk there, but at the end
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: of the day, it usually doesn't matter like that seven
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: and a half. Me and Chad would have got burned
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: with our nine and a half. So my home scored
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: that touchdown even though we had a great number. So
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day the ten which me
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: and you got and popped up for maybe twelve hours,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: we're not here to shove our number in your face
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: and we're like, oh, we got the best number. We
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: covered that anyway. It's like, don't kick yourself if you
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: miss the best number.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Although we're giving you a lot of tools to not
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: miss the best of the number. Because you can listen
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night, you can listen on Tuesday, you can
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: follow us in the Action Network gap. So if nothing else,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: make your choice based on the inform that we're giving you,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: basically in real time. We got them narrow down these games,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: which is hard because we got a lot of games
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: that were on the fence about We were talking the
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: other day about the Jets the New York Giants in Miami,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: both coming off of big losses, the Giants looking terrible,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Miami expecting to rebound. That game was at nine before
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Monday out of football. Now it's at eleven. We were
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: wondering if we were going to talk ourselves into Miami
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: at minus eleven. I still don't have a read on this.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: It feels like a big number to me. If you're
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: talking about trends. Evan has a great stat. Teams that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: scored three points or less the previous week cover sixty
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: one percent of the time the last twenty years. The
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: following week, the Patriots, the Giants, and the Bengals are
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: in that That makes for this week when two teams
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: get blown out, the team that is ends up being
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: favored the next week if they're playing each other, actually
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't do very well against the spread the following week.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: So I think I would lean Giants, but it's not
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: a game. I'm thinking I got to put in the contest,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: so I don't if you don't feel strongly, we don't
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: need to spend a ton of time on it.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, like I told you, I hate this one because,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: like you just said, everything everything about we do it
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: makes me want to take the Giants. They're getting no tickets,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: no money. I talk to twenty five incredibly sharp groups
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: in the last two days. Not a single person brought
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: up the Giants or that they're taking the Giants, And
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: like I didn't bring them up either, but no one
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: else did. Which if there's usually eleven point dog and
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: no one's betting on, there's always gonna be one or
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: two guys. It's like, yeah, I'm gonna take that number.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: So could be a huge trap for Miami betters, but
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be right there with them. I'm just I
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: don't see how the Giants keep up with Miami, and
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: I don't see defensively, like you just said, I think
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: they had the least amount of pressures right now in
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: football the Giants D line, So we know the only
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: way to stop Tua is to get it pressure on
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: him and make him uncomfortable like the Bills. That was
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the perfect game plan they had of getting pressure on
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: him somehow, you know, get him off his spots, get
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: him out of rhythm. If the man has rhythm and timing,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: you're dead. Me and I have seen this a thousand times,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: and it's scary as hell, where it's like you're taking
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: a huge favorite on a team getting no money, no bets,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: in a spot that I normally would love them. But
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: you know, my argument keeps being this Miami team is
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: just different than other teams where it's like their offense.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: I still don't think the books have caught up to
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: these offenses. So the books don't care like they can have.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: They're happy to lose this game. They'll get it back
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: another game. So it's the few times I'm good dride
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: with the public here and I'm still on this one.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Like I told you, I make this number thirteen. I
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: do whatever we do, like a little spreadsheet me Chris
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Sean Stucky. We put in our numbers. I'm by far
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: the highest on Miami. I don't think any of those
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: guys are above ten. So clearly most people up there
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: aren't going to model this number so big. It's just
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to overreact to what happened in Buffalo, Like,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I still think this team is right up there as
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the AFC. But it
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: was interesting seeing those guys so much lower on this
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: number than I was.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: He's referring, of course, to Stucky and Chris Raybond, who
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: co host the Action Network Thursday podcast, and Sean Kroner,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: who is our predictive analysts and one of the creators
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: of the Luck Rankings, three guys we mentioned on the
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: show all the time. You must check out the Luck Rankings.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: You must listen to the Thursday podcast for the Action Network.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going to bring it up a couple times because
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: games we're on Chris and Stucky are against. Also, I
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: feel like you just said one of the smartest things
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: you've ever said. If the man has rhythm and timing,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: you're dead. That goes for football, that goes for basketball,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: that goes for a shootout at the OK Corral. If
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: you are against someone with rhythm and timing, you're fucked
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: New Orleans at New England. Look, this is a game
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned Stucky and Raybon Stucky like the Patriots.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: This was my exact decision. I don't care, like I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: think this is the right move here. The Patriots are
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: in trouble. I think Mac Jones is just terrible. I
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: don't think that is something you can make up for
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: with scheme. I think Matthew Judahn and Christian Gonzalez being
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: out is a hard thing to overcome. I don't think
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: you can make it up with scheme and better coaching
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: from Bill Balichick over Dennis Allen. Are we still together
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: on this?
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we exactly what we said. It was like,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: we wanted to be on the Patriots right if their
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: defense with healthy, this would have been a great spot
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: for them against Derek Carr going outside and struggling offense.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Their studs are gone, Like I know they made it
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: a trade for Jackson from the Chargers. That guy ain't
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: coming there to fix what's happening there. This week we
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: kind of talked out. We thought the number would eventually move.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Some books are making the Saints favorites now minus one.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: It's just gonna be back and forth. Yeah, yeah, Chad,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Like I'm still right there with you. This is just
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: a week of like a lot of these numbers have
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: just calm down to a pick where the book even
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: themselves are like, we don't really know what to do
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: any of these teams. And that's how it feels with
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: this one, where the Saints have a ton of potential,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: but we don't know how badly Derek Carr is hurt,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: and we don't know how bad this Patriots defense is
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: going to be without arguably their two best defenders. So
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I'm still confident our position just because I think the
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Saints defense is really good and they're healthy. Don't we
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: wish it was still one and a half plus two maybe,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: like we'd feel a lot better about the Saints. The
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: fact that now you have to get minus one it's
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: making the value leave a little bit.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And also it's always very tricky. Evan will tell
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: you that the trends don't favor teams that go from
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: short dogs to short favorites. For the record, speaking of
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: closing line value against the opening line, I bet the
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Saints at plus one and a half. I put it
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: in the app. If you follow me in the app,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you would have seen that. We talked about it on Tuesday.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Just something to keep in mind, all right, Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Look,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: we talked about this on Tuesday also, and we've said
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are coming in on this during sharp calls.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: This one does scare me a little bit, like I
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: think we have three games that we're debating between Big
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Balls and Foxhole, and this is one of them. Because
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Evan gave us all those stats the other day about
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: this series right over the last twenty years, which is
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: basically covering Tomlin and Harbaugh's entire careers. Underdog in this
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: series twenty eight, twelve and three when the line is
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: three or more since two thousand and five twenty one,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: three and three, underdog has covered eleven straight in this rivalry,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: fifteen one and one against the spread, and when when
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh and Tomlin face each other twenty two to five
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: and three to the underdog.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: I just want to see your face. We win the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: damn game we are living.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: And we've got Lamar Jackson, who has been terrible as
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a favorite.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: When you're trying to be great, it's going to be negativity.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: But you know, they hated Jesus and I'm not Jesus,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: so I'll want me to worry about it.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: And we've got the Steelers, who always overperformed as an
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: underdog at home over a field goal. I betted it four,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: but it makes me nervous because I don't think this
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: is the same kind of Steelers team as years past.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: This defense isn't nearly as good.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: That's why we got to make our big balls better
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the week shed.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Big balls better the week Pittsburgh Steelers plus four at
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: home against the Baltimore Ravens. I wonder what Mike Tomlin
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: is going to say about that.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: You know, he didn't urinate down his leg. Man, that's
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: a great place to begin. This takes some skajones to
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: make this bet here. It's like you're betting a team
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: that you're right they don't have. It feels like the
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: same type of dogs on defense that we're used to.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Normally I would be like, you know what, let's just
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: wait and see. But you were spot on giving out
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: all these stats, and these are the reasons. You just
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: don't miss on these numbers where we're just playing the
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: long term game with a lot of these bets were making.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Never in my life if I probably rememss this miss
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: this opportunity to take a Tomlin team at home in
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: a divisional game after they lost by more than twenty points.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: It's too good of a number to pass on. Man
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: like what we're talking about. No doubt, having the four
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: feels a lot better like grabbing the four now, that's
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: that's such a key number. So if you can get
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: the four to four and a half, obviously we want
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: you to grab it now. But I could I could
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: see this being three and a half by kickoff. It's
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: just the Joe's versus pros. It's going to be the public.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: I mean we can look in the app. I'm assuming
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the tickets and everything like that will be on at
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: raven and all the cash is on Pittsburgh.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: This is a very public dog. Sixty six percent of
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Pittsburgh, eighty two percent of the money
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh, and the wise guy money is coming in
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh a because of the number of what we've
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: seen with this rivalry for the years. But there are
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: significant injuries for the Ravens. I mean, they're just banging.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: And Pittsburgh has injuries too, but not as bad as
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: the Ravens.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Not as bad as the Ravens, and also not as impactful,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: right like the Ravens secondary is in big trouble the Steelers.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Like you play Mitch Trubisky, you play Kenny Pickett. I'm
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: not sure it fucking matters.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: We're just gonna trust the number here and take it.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: I'm happy these our big balls better the week because
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: of all our bets are making. This one feels like
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: the Jets last week, where it's like I know it's
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: the right number, it's the right's about to take it.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: It's it's really taken a lot for me to put
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: them money down on it. It's just this. This Pittsburgh
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: team is bad.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: That's what makes it so fun. They're at Detroit. Listen,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: we said on Tuesday we wanted to wait until this
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: number got to ten to make a call. It's really
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: hard to pull the trigger on this Carelina team. And
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: this Detroit team has been so dominant. You said it's
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: climbing up in your power ratings. Me, Dallas, I got
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: a couple of things here. Jared goff rewinder most profitable
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: against spread QB the past five years and by the way,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: much much better in the dome. Not surprising, so, you know,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: for uh, for the film room stuff and for other
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: stuff that we do. I was doing a little research
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: on on Aiden Hutchinson, and he is grading out as
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: one of the top pass rushers according to Pro Football Focus,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: not that far behind Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons three
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: and a half sacks the past two games. The Panthers
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: O line has no one grading out at a top
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: thirty pass blocker. Nobody so and we got Bryce Young.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: So it's a hard one to put. We know the
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: right side is Carolina, and I fucking hate it.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I took I'm taking the ten, but I'm right
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: there with you, like I just I wish I had
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: the juice and the hope and the push you to
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: take the ten here. But man, it's really hard to
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: convince you. And Evan just point in our chat that
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the tickets right now in Detroit,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: they would have more than eighty percent twenty twelve. It's
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: only happened only times in the last twenty years. They've
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: had this make tickets since twenty twelve, So, oh god, yeah,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: that's that's terrifying. If you're a Detroit fan, it's terrible. Yeah, no,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: we got I know. If you're gonna be like, why
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: don't you take the Giants it's kind of the same thing,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: but it's it isn't it isn't it's it's tough. But
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: I told Chad I would take this at ten I have.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: I've thrown a little on it. I just don't know
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: if I'll make it. What of our contests play with
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: it where it probably should be. I can't stomach it
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: right now, Like I every what all the film I
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: watch on Bryce Young, he is bad.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Terrible, remarkable difference between Anthony Richardson, CJ. Stroud and Bryce Young.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: And look, we talked about this non stop heading into
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the draft. It's not pee wee football. Why has everybody
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: focused on a guy who's my size and my weight?
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it just made no sense. So I'm gonna
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: put Carolina plus ten on ourary final list, not our
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: final final list. Like right now, we've got New Orleans
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh on there, depending on the number for New Orleans.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: But it's possible that when we decide, this might be
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: one of the best numbers available.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: A lesson if you're new to listen to the show.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: I shout on Bryce Young for six months saying I
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: had him a second round grade and I had to
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: get a lot of like, what the fuck do you know?
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: You're an idiot? What did I tell you? I said,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: I didn't think the kid had the body for the league.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think he would hold up. I think he
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: already missed a game this season from taking a hit.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: So I'm not a hater guys like this is literally
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: my job is to evaluate talent and give an opinion
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: on that said down, so do I won't bryce Shung's
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: creator look like shit.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: No.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: I want the kid to have a great life, to
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: succeed in life. But my job is to shit on
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: people like That's what this job is. And yeah, me
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: and Shaw are joking. I had a fan reach out
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: send me some clips from our draft show, and I
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: went back and listened to a couple of Then, yeah,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: we all have a couple of misses. But Dan when
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: we dead on about CJ being much better than Bright
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: Young So it sucked that I lost a lot of money,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: but it just shows how he nept this Carolina front offices.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: And I love that I saw that they're looking for
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: a number one receiver. Now it's just hilarious. If the
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Bears just send DJ back and get another first round
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: pick from him, that would be hilarious if they just yeah,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: get they're not next year. The year after, it's like, yeah,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: we'll send you guys a receiver. So Carolina fans, I
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: feel bad for you guys. It just looks like in
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: a draft that two really really great prospects through the
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: first couple of weeks in CJ and Richardson. It sucks
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: you don't have one, Cuz, I mean, look at the
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Colts and Houston fan bases right now. They are truly
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: living the dream.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: We got to pick up the piss pretty soon. Matt
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Mitchell's going to send. It's a nasty message, Houston, Atlanta. Listen,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: everyone's got to check out the Favorites Film Room. It's
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the YouTube exclusive Simon and I do in which we
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: break down key plays. We use the NFL All twenty
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: two and we think about how these players will impact
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: our bets this weekend. I did the Falcons run game
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: this week. You and I like the Falcons at minus
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: two against Houston on Sunday night. It was at three
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. We said we're waiting to get them
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: to three. It got down to one. It's now backup. Wise,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: guys have come in on Atlanta. This is a dominant
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: run game for the Falcons. Dominant as long as it
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: goes right. And this is what we talked about in
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the film room. Fourth highest success rate in the NFL
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: running right, No surprise. Center Drew Dollmon, fourth best overall
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: graded by PFF. Number one rated run blocking center. Chris Linstrom.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Chris Linstrom right guard, third best overall guard acording to PFF.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Caleb McGarry right tackle, six best run blocking tackle. So
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: you get this team running right, whether it's inside Tyler Algier,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: outside Bijon, they have an advantage. I think they have
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: an advantage at home. We still like it the minus two.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's also people are gonna start picking up
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: themes here where it's like we like riding the hot
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: teams and then we try to jump off. We try
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: to sell high. It's like stock. So we were all
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: over Houston last week. Now we're fading them all over
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the Bills last week. A lot of pros now are
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: going on the Jaguars up for the following week. It's
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: like you're trying to not just time the market, you're
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: trying to sell low on these teams. And if you're
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: on Houston and you didn't get the three and a half.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Chat's talking about closing numbers. You're buying high in a
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: team at a bad number now. And my hope was
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: that this was gonna be like the Colts game, where
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: this was gonna flip and Lanto would be a home dog.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: That would have been amazing. Sadly, the Pros couldn't chill
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: and they had to come in and buy the number
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: one and a half and one and now, like Chad said,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: it's up to two and one and a half still,
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: So nothing's changed for me here, Like CJ hasn't been incredible.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: He's gonna get he's gonna get caught, He's gonna hit
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: a wall. Eventually the book will be out on them.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: That's just how it is. Teams are gonna find your
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: weaknesses and they attack it. They build game plans around it.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Me and Chad at talk all the time. There's a
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: reason these rookies fall off. As the season goes along.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: It's a very long season. They're getting more and more
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: tape on you. So whatever he likes to do, the
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: defense is gonna start counteracting that. And Atlanta, it's not
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: so much that me and Chad are just betting them
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: because of their running style on offense, it's more about
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Houston doesn't have any of the guys to stop it.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Like you go through their defense, they are thin, especially
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: against the run and run stop or so that's why,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: like Chad was right on the same page with me
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: where he broke down those two guys, and it's like,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: that's why I like a land here. It's not that
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: I have zero faith in the ridder. He can still
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: make some of the throws. But if we're ever gonna
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: mean a game where I know it's gonna be like
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: a shootout, like say this game was in Houston, probably
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: would be on Houston, right, that's you're going a good
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: number for them. The fact that it CJ on the
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: road in this kind of environment after you know, they
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: had this big win in Jacksonville. He made some throws,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: but that wasn't all him that Pittsburgh game. That was
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: really a great game by him. So that's why it's
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: like the public everyone now seeing that they're all over
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: this with CJ. Where pros like us are like, yes,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: this gets talented, but this number should be three, Like
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: this should be three or above the fact we're getting
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: under a field goal here with this Atlanta team. It's
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: another game where it just feels like we have to
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: have it in the contest.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: All right, Look, same scenario, Tennessee at Indy. The only
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: difference is that the Tennessee number did move the way
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: we thought Atlanta might move. They opened it at about
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: one and a half or two. We betted at one
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: and a half. Indy now a two point underdog. Your
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: film breakdown on the Faves Film Room of Anthony Richardson
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: was awesome. This is our foxhil Why is guys, Titans?
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: This has to be our Foxhall. Let's clide down into
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the foxhole.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I'm in. Yeah, and it feels like a fox old
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Chad that we are alone on this one. My friend, Yes,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: that's what I was gonna say, if it feels like
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: we're pretty alone, because I know plenty of guys are
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: just gonna stay away from this now. Can't help it.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Like we're getting such a good number here against a
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Tennessee team that is crazy over valued right now. Their
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: defense is suspect. They do have some dogs up front,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: but the rest of the defense has a ton of
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: holes in it. And obviously, if Jonathan Taylor came back
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: that I'd be amazing. It's not that big of a
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: deal to me. Me and Chad broke down the film room,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: like this kid Richardson is making great reads and great throws.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: You're always gonna catch a stinker bet in these rookies.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: Like if if you bet Houston this week and CJ
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: just completely lays a stinker, you shouldn't be shocked. It's
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: a rookie. If Anthony Richson comes out and it just
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: plays like he did in that first half against the Rams,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: it would suck for me and Chad. But the reason
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I'm okay with back in Richson is he has the legs,
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: and like, that's such the cheet code to what he is,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: where it's like if the arm isn't working, he can
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: always go back to his legs. And that's what I
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: loved when we broke down that film room. He was
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: not relying on his legs the second half. He was
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: trusting his arm talent and taking the windows he had
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: and then throwing guys into windows, which was the craziest
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: part of that breakdown where it's like, you know, if
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: guys weren't open, he would do a fake scramble, so
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: he'd run up to the line like he's gonna run.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: The linebackers would step up, and then he would do
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: a little dump off to the guys like his tight
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: end or his running back. That's a veteran play by
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: a guy who is in his first year. So we
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: might get caught here. I'm happy to pay for that price,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: especially if we get two and a half in the contest. Like,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: no brainer, I'll be on this Colts one. Evan gave
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: us a static. We talked about guys that go from
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: dogs to favorites. Which Tennessee did. They were an underdog,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: now they were a favorite. It's what, Chad, They hit
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: it at less than fifty eight percent, I believe. Yeah, yeah,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: So you know, that's a nice, nice trend for us
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: to back. But not only that, I think we're getting
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: a great number of this Colts team. So definitely a
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: battle for a division game here, but another division dog
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: just like Pittsburgh. We're gonna take the points.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Here's a good stat that Evn't just gave us. When
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: teams won by twenty or more the previous week the
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: past twenty years, the next week, there are forty two
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread. That's the Titans, also the Texans.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: So yeah, true.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: So I like I was on Sunday night, I was
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: leaning Titans. You were prickly with me about it, and
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: then I had come around to your side.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: And that was a good read. Again though, That's why
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: I gave you your flowers. That was a good read, Balue,
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: because you're getting the best of the number for the Titans.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: But it turns out I think I'm on your side now,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: and so we're in this together. Brother. There we go
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: a fox hole in it. We're in the foxhole Cinci
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: at Arizona. So Arizona was a three point favorite at
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: that three, six, five, two and a half other places. Basically,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: books are begging for sincim money at this point, like
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: we said at the beginning, opened at six. The biggest challenge.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: I thought.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Raybund did an incredible job of breaking this game down
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast and also got this Sunday
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: six pack on YouTube where him and Stuck you go
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: through their six best games. This is one of his
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Arizona and Arizona's better than we think, and we have
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: enough of a sample size now where this is what
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is this season. He's not Joe Burrow of
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: years past. What he is is what we're going to get,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and that's not something you want to bet on. So
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I understand why people are betting on Arizona for me
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: for a contest play like I'm passing on this. Yeah,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I don't have any interest. I don't know about you.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: If you don't, I'm stand away, stand away because I
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: want I want to take them. Now that's down to
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: this point out at two and a half like I
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: thought we would. But you know, guys like Chris who
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: I respect, and there's other pro groups I really respect.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: They're coming in on the three threes and a half
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: the reason the number is being bet down, so it's
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: like I respect them. I'm like Chad, like we got
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: whatever it was four or four and a half. I
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: got that Sunday Monday. I'll just smile and hold that
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: tick and be like, I don't have no read on
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: this game because to me, it's another reaction. I think
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: this line's moved too much in the values on the Bengals.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: But Chad just said it like it's hard to have
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: any type of faith in Joe Burrow. You can't complete
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: the ball twenty yards downfield. Joe Burrow like the guy
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: who can miss downfield, can't complete passes. Now, he's losing
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: T Higgins. It's just oh man, it's just a nightmare
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: scenario right now for them. And again, the Cardinals team
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: can run the ball. So it's like, yeah, everything, everything
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: I want to do is on the Cardinals. But it's
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: a shit number now. So we talked about the time
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: close line value. I feel like I'm getting the real
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: closeline value here technically is on the Bengals, but it
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't feel like value, right Chad. It feels like a
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: little stinky, stinky line at.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: This point, Philadelphia at the Rams, Rams are four and
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: a half, undefeated team versus undefeated team against the spread
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: line line has moved in the Rams direction, kind of
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: settled at four and a half. Yeah, Cooper punk maybe
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: back Stafford is slinging it. The Eagles have incredible have
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of injuries in the defensive backfield. Here's my
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: take though, And I've been hesitant to bet this game
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: even though it's not the Eagles at four and a half,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: and it's I like the number for the Eagles. They
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: because they've got a Pats mid two thousand vibe to
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: me like their coaching is great. They've got great players
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: who don't make stupid mistakes. They have confidence, but not
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: like over confidence. These are the kind of games the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Eagles win even when they're ugly, and they win them
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: by a touchdown.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's hard where it's I think everything you
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: just said is so true. It's like the matchup's good
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: for this offensive Stafford, Like Sam Howe just had his
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: way with his secondary. Now you're getting Stafford with maybe
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: a healthy Cooper Cup added to the mix. I'm right
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: there with you, Chad. So it's one of those games.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I'll bet the four and a half and I'll be
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: all over it. I don't I just don't know. Who knows.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Maybe someday will wake up and feel different, but right now,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: I just don't have it in our contest with us.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: But I do like the number. But everything Chad said
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: so true where it's like sometimes these numbers I look
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: really good, they're they're kind of fake and they sucky
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: in with it where it's like why isn't this down
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: to three and a half. I don't get why it's
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: still four and a half. That's like my biggest issue
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: with it. Where it's like, who doesn't think they're getting
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: great value? Here. Maybe general public doesn't. Maybe they're thinking
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: they're getting great value in the Eagles, but I don't know.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I just feel like the Rams have played so well
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: and people have seen them playing well, and it's just
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked that they've that many doubters. But yeah, Eagles
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: talent wise, they are light years ahead of this Rams team.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Like they haven't been punting first round picks the last
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: ten years. They've been taking studs from Georgia. So it's
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: literally two totally different teams how they're built out. And
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: you know, a game that again, if it's Sunday and
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: we can't get a fifth game, me and Chad might
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: them having this one in there just as we sit
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: here right now. It's hard to get there.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: When you say you bet the four and a half,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: you didn't say if you bet the Rams or the Eagles.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna keep doing that. Eagles first half. I
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: know we got slaughtered last week last week. Yeah, I'm
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: gonna keep taking it. Even last week they just they
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: just played sloppy, where Eagles tend to bounce back the
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: following weeks after complaining like that. So that's another reason.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: It's just making me scary to take the four and
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: a half. It's like, this number is so big, why
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: isn't this lower?
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: We don't have to spend too much time on this one.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Kansas City and Minnesota. I liked it Sunday night it
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: was about five and a half. The number of the
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: wise guys came in on Minnesota. I think I still
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: like Minnesota, but I don't like four. So for me
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: as a contest play, it's a pass. As a bet,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: it's on Minnesota. You you disagree, Yeah, I might be
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: able to get there with you.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: On the Vikings at four and a half, I mean,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: really smart money's coming out on them, and I think
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: everyone's kind of on board what I've been saying with
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs, where it's like they are great. We have
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: no doubt about this Chief's team. They're just something's different
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: since Eric left and went to Washington offensive coordinator. The
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: offense just different. And I don't think Mahomes is totally
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: comfortable in this new offensive scheme. So a game that
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: sucks because we're betting a horrible Vikings team that have
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: a horrible defense, but we're taking Kirk at home in
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: a game we think he should be attract meet. So
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Kirk tends to burn us in these spots, but on
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: the flip side, Mahomes it's over four four and a half. Chat.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: This is usually when we fade them. So it's just
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: like the Rams where it's like we're getting a good
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: home dog against the team that people are kind of
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: betting on what they were last year, not so much
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: what they were did this year, and it feels like
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: another inflated number. So it's like, I like this number,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: me and Chat won't be shocked at all when Kirk
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Cousins throws his third pick six and we're down twenty
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: one in the fourth quarter. But that's how you have
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: to bet it. You have to bet these dogs and
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: these kind of spots and these numbers against public received
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: teams from the previous year that you know, whatever it was,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: I think it was six, you're right, Chad, And then
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: all this money came in on Minnesota. Now it's all
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: the way down to four and a half. I'm hoping
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: by Sunday more money just comes back into the Chiefs
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: because everyone's gonna put them in teasers of their money
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: line Parlais and we get back to that five and
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: a half six maybe, So I've been betting the four
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: and a half. But I'm with Chad, don't don't. Don't
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: grab the four unless you're really half to, unless you're
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: really worried, or maybe you're busy this weekend. You know
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: when you'll be betting again. Okay, grab the four. Try
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: to wait, try to see if it goes back up
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of books, because I do think four and
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: a half is such a key number. It's it's better
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: to get that than just grab the four.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: New York Jets at Denver. We talked about this in
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the beginning. We said, we like Denver public is back
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: in the Jets. You got some intel that the wise
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: guys like the Jets. Since we've been talking at two
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. Since we've been talking, this line has
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: moved from one and a half to two and a half.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: It's back up.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Denver's now two and a half.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: So I'm a bitch. So yeah, that was like a game.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Like I loved it. We were getting, we were getting.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: We're still under a field goal, so I still like it.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: But we joke all the time. Two and a half
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: now is like an important number. It's not what he
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: used to be like the way it is now two
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: and a half does matter. So so I'm a bitch.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: That was one of those where it's like, bitch, keep
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: coming bet in the Jets, like give me, give me
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: a pick on Denver here. Like I said, Russell is
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: not the problem for Denver, it's their defense. You won't
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: get a better game to get right than Zach Wilson
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: after he had the game of his life, and hey,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: maybe you figure something out. Maybe all these Jets fans
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: are right where this guy's found it now, like he's
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: he's finally taking with Rogers teaching, he's putting on the field.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: I'm more than happy to pay and be wrong then
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: bet on Zach Wilson, like to actually be that. So
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: Denver's defense, mean, Chad broke them down on film. They
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: are horrible in every way. They kind of found something
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: in that second half against the Bears. Like their defense
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: in the first half couldn't do anything. The second half
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: they were flying around. I couldn't believe how it was
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: night and day. Where Like their pass rush had zero
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: pressure in the first half. Second half they're all overfield.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: So this is a team that you know, I don't
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: even know. I'd have to check my ratings, but they
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: might be my thirtieth ranked defense, like they are truly
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: horrible right now, Denver. I don't think they're actually that bad.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Like last year they were fourteenth graded out DBOA defense
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: in the entire season. They're not the fourteenth best defense
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: in football, but I don't think they're the thirtieth. I
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: think like they'll they'll slowly start creeping up to the
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: mid twenties. And this is kind of the game where
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: they should get right at home against a Jets team
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: that they gave it all against that Chiefs team that
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: fell short. I don't see them rebounding from that. Where
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: on the flip side, Denver is coming off such a
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: big win that kind of you kind of think, okay,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: they'll push them forward the rest of the year. We
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: could be wrong, but again I'm happy to fade Zach
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: Wilson under a field goal with a home team. We
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: did it already. We won a game somehow with Mac
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Jones against Zach Wilson as under a field goal. I
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: gotta do it again. So I'm gonna not let what
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: happened with that Chiefs game scare me off of it.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep fadan Zach Wilson under a field goal.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Dallas at San Francisco, biggest bet of the week, biggest
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: game of the week. Very chucked San Francisco with this
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: number stucky is against us.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, what was his reasoning though?
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Uh, I didn't love the reasoning, to be honest.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say what possible reason it could there be?
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: I think he was discounting the Cardinals game and felt
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: like the uh, the reaction to the Cardinals loss was
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: too big, and felt like San Francisco had won big
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: games and looked impressive against some not great competition.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: The not great competition that just smoked the Cowboys. So yeah,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: like anyone that's trying to get men argument the Cowboys,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: because I did have a couple of guys bring it
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: up there, like what are you doing with this one?
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: And I mean you already kind of talked about it. It's
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: like we're taking the better team at home. I mean,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Evan probably knows is I think it's what Chant hands
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: up to eleven straight call as a home as a
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: home favorite. He's been on a role as.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Nine consecutive home games, nine consecutive home games they've covered.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: So I mean, if it ain't broke, don't fix it,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: like I love to be the guy. It's like, well
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: they're due, then Dallas is due. It's just there's no
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: reason for me to get on Dallas. I can't find
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: any reason. Uh yes, is Dak more experienced and probably
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: a better quarterback than Perty, Sure, but in there's each
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: of their own systems. Who's playing better. Right now, Party's
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: been mistake free. I mean, if you grate him out,
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty incredible on the throws he is making.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Where I told you a little things I didn't like
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: from him was I think I still don't trust him
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: making checks and calls of the line, Like those are
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: little things I look for that doesn't really matter. Guys
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: in his second year, Kyle's kind of giving him more
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: freedom now, which he should like. He should be letting
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: him make calls of the line. Purdy almost always checks
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: and they're just running the ball, which not a bad
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: thing you have McCaffrey, but there's many times where he
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: needs to make the throws. Hopefully that changes the season
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: goes along. But again, there's nothing for me to see
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: in the forty nine ers that can just get me
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: on Dallas. If this was four and a half, I
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: honestly would start thinking Dallas there because I we talked
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: about like this number at four kind of made sense,
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: but at three and a half, you're getting value on
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. So I'm right there with Chad.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: I've just been betting this number all week. It's gonna
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: be my most public bed of the week. All the
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: public has just coming heavy on this forty nine Ers team.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: The pros haven't really made a remove. I know a
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: couple of guys who took the Cowboys, but I told
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: you I did the same thing when I just did
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: with what stuck you. It's like, tell me why you're
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: doing it, and they really can't. They're just like, well,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: it's a good number. These teams are power rated right
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: by each other, Like I'm just gonna take the doll
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: here three and a half. And it's like, all right,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: that's that's your reasoning. But I feel like we have
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: good reasons taking this forty nine ers team. The run
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: blocking scheme, the coaching advantage with the forty nine ers,
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: the way the forty iris defense is playing without any
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: injuries to that defense as well. It just feels like
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: it's all there for this one. So another game I
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: was going to make my big Balls of the Week,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: but I thought Matt Mitchell out for taking the forty
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: nine ers of big Balls by the week because this
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: one is tough. We're just we don't really take prime
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: time favorites like this and all the money's on, so
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: we love this number here with forty nine.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think also, I don't think it takes big balls.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Like we've been on this from Sunday night, our opinion
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: hasn't changed. Nobody has told me anything that to make
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: to change my mind that I don't want to be
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: in the Niners. You just you just said it. You're
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: preaching it, better coach, better system at home. Matt Mitchell
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: was saying in the chat, this is the regular Genitals
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: bet of the week. He doesn't think it takes big balls.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: I agree. We're just taking the team that we think
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: is better at home, that has better history and better coaching.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: That's it, all right. Last game, we got to do
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Green Bay at Las Vegas. This line has moved. It
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: was Las Vegas plus two now it's Las Vegas plus one.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Sucks because the last guys came in on Vegas. We
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: love Vegas at plus two.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: And I said it sadly like my my stuff cut out.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: I was like, I'll break this game more down on Thursday.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: I loved lud Vegas love that number. It's gone. We
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: all bet it, everyone bet it, and it's gone. So
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: no opinion this this won't be one of our five.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: But if it was still a two and a half,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: I was like, yeah, this is this is a great number.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: I didn't I didn't another one. I didn't care who
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: the ratest quarterback was going to be. You break down
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love's film. He has moments and he flashes, but
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: overall he's just he's I don't know. I have a
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: lot of questions right now about Jordan Love. And I
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: said it coming to the season, and again I took
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of shit from the green fans Green Bay fans.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: I was like, he has to come in and be
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: a pro bowler his year one for your team to
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: be good and to make the playoffs this year, and
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: he just has not been that. And a lot of
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: their guys who we talked about hyped up on their
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: defense have not shown up either, Like Green Bay's defense
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: has struggled as well, where they look great on paper.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: So another team that you know Jordan Love. Maybe next year, right,
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: that that's when we'll see the improvement. But this year
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: you're just hoping to see little moments from him, which
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: you have, But I have no faith of him consistent
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: and no faith in him. On the road is a
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: favorite to get these kind of wins. So I'll be
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: on the dog here. But like Chad said, we missed
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: the best number and this will not be in our contest.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: By the way, breaking news, breaking news from the Action
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Network news desk via Evan Abrams line change. New Orleans
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: Saints are now favorites over the New England Patriots. Man,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: that fucking sucks. We got we got the number we
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: want to, but I'm not sure it'll be a contest.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Play Simon, Simon, my friend, can you name the fastest
• 46:35
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• 46:38
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: That's right, my friend, it's our sponsor, game Time. I
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: love game Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor
• 46:47
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  Speaker 1: of which I'm going to get time right now from
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: my house here in Connecticut. What am I going to
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: go see?
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: Woo?
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Well, I got a New York Jets football game coming
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• 47:35
  Speaker 1: All right, Before we get to the money Line Underdog
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Round Robin parlay, reminders that the Week five contest tiebreaker
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: is length of the Raiders first drive. Our predictive analyst
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Billy Ward writes a tiebreaker strategy article every week, and
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: a link to that article can be found in the
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: episode's description. If you want to leg up in the contest, simon,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: who's going to be our money line Underdog Round Robin?
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Last week we hit four games out of five, so
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: we did some people some good. Dog blocks your dog,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Your dog blocks mot dog.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: We gotta go Stealers, no brainer. Gotta go with our Colts, Steelers.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Colts needs me to say it, but it's a good number.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Gotta go with the.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Rams Steelers, Colts Rams.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: I can't get there the Minnesota can you get there?
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I was just gonna say.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Can you get there? Kirk winning over?
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I could just see, like, I like, fuck, the variants
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: on the Vikings is so high that I could just
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: see it happening right actually off of a big game
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, the Vikings need to get back in track,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: and like, oh my god.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: I'll do it because right now I'm looking at a
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: book and only like eleven percent of the bets are
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: on the Vikings money line. So I like that no
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: one's believing, which I don't either, honestly.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Burg Pittsburgh, Indie, Minnesota Rams.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: I want to do Jacksonville. That's another one though, where
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: it's like that's just crazy to wrap my head around
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: at Trevor Lawrence beaten. But it is in England, man,
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: Like it's it's weird. It gets weird over there. Cardinals
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: like that better than Jacksonville. I can't. I can't see
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville win an hour.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: I like that one better, all right, money Line Round
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Robin Pittsburgh, Indie, Minnesota, Rams, Arizona. Okay, Simon, I want
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: you to make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza
• 49:36
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• 49:41
  Speaker 1: watching football, Simon and ordering Little Caesars your favorite NFL
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  Speaker 1: parlay this week. Yes, Chad, order online during our Pizza
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Pizza pregame one hour before NFL games and get ready
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: for some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: pizza or pick the toppings your crave Simon. I don't
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: know if I'm gonna like this answer. Do you judge
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: people by the toppings they order in their pizza?
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: Always?
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Well, I like to get a lot of vegetables in
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: my pizza. But however you order your pizza, you win.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. All right,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I'm a survival for the Survivor Pool Pick of the Week.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: It feels like there's only one answer and we're gonna
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: lose on it, but we got to use them Detroit. No,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: there's no way to sugarcoat that I'm an asshole. So's
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: that's about the best way to put it. And I
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: hate it.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, Oh, Miami's not bad either, but
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know when else we'll we use Detroit.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: All right, use Detroit.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Put Miami's are too, but I figure we'll be able
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: to use Miami again down the road where Detroit. This
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: is like, this is the classic. This team is peaking
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: in September October, and that's just going to be rough
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: sledding for them November December. So I would prefer to
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: use Detroit now, all right.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit it is. As a reminder, the favorite podcast is
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• 52:02
  Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Before
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: we get out of here, we're joined by Action Network
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Director Research, Evan Abrams, the engine behind the great stats
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: and nuggets you hear on this show and across our network.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, you get the last word.
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: What's up, fellas? So last week I was really nice
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: to you guys. I gave some good stuff to back
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: this week. With Halloween coming up this month, I'm get
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: a little scarier, so I apologize ahead of time.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: But you guys talk.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: You guys talked about public sides, Chad, you talked about
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: how good they're doing this season. So let's continue with
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: that with a little bit of line movement stuff, which
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: is a little scary because I don't think it's going
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: to continue. But right now, if you follow the line
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: movement this year, so that's any line that moved in
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: the direction from the opening the closing line, so minus
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: five to minus six. So if you follow the line
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: movement this year, you are thirty six and twenty one
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: straight up thirty twenty four to three against the spread
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: versus the closing line. The previous two seasons you were
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: fifty games under five hundred in that spot. Even scarier
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: teams to move two points or more so far this year,
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: so that's like minus five to minus seven, are seventeen
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: and seven straight up, fifteen to eight and one against
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: the spread. That fifteen to eight in one mark is
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: the second best start for those big line moves through
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: four weeks, so we've almost never seen the closing line
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: kind of not matter with those big leaps, so like
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: this week, that would be Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, New Orleans, Miami.
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: There's a lot this week so far, so follow Action Labs,
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: follow Action Network, you can follow the line movement and
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: two points or more. It's been an unreal start, so
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: it's a little scary, but I figure it's good information. Okay,
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: moving on to number two. So this is a cap
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: tip to Brandon Anderson who found this last year and
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: it's continued so far. So the Falcons will play the
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: Texans this week after their London game without a bye week.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: Only ten times in NFL history as a team returned
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: home from Europe without a bite week, every one of
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: those teams has been tied or trailing in the fourth
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: quarter of the following week. So maybe this is a
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: live tip because we hope the Falcons win for your picks,
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: but so far not the greatest start, a little bit
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: tough without the rest. Also, I want to mention this
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: the Falcons continue their journey this year. They have zero
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: games with a positive rest differential all season, so this
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: continues in that same spot, so hopefully they continue. I'm
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: on Atlanta, so hopefully that all happens as well and
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: we'll end here.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: So listen.
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: I know this is a picking spreads, picking sides pod,
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: but I know Chad loves three things in life, healthy food,
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: referee trends, and weather. So in the next ten days
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: we have some windy games, games with ten plus mile
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: an hour. Wins are higher at kickoff ninety six and
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: fifty to the under. That's sixty six percent in the
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: last three seasons, and that's fifty seven over the last
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: twenty years. This year so far four and over to
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: the under by almost ten points per game. Right now,
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: that's Baltimore and Pittsburgh, New England and the Saints and
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: actually Denver in Kansas City currently on Thursday Night football
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: next week. So again, keep up with Action Labs, Action Network,
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: bet Labs check the wind because there could be some
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: advantages there.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Thanks fellows, Evan, do you speak my love language? It's
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: just amazing. All right, here's a recap our Foxhole is
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: in d plus two and a half. We are alone
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: on that one. Big balls is Pittsburgh plus four. Exec
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: decision from earlier this week was New Orleans plus one
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. Look, folks, that line moved. It is
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: now New Orleans is a favorite minus one. Simon says,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: is Atlanta minus two our round robin money line round
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: robin underdog parlay Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Rams, Minnesota, Arizona. Simon,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: we had to make five contest picks right now, Here's
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: where I think we'd be the Saves five, Pittsburgh plus four,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta minus two. I think we'd be San Francisco minus
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I think we'd probably be the
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Rams plus four and a half. And then it come
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: down to Denver minus two and a half Minnesota plus four.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I was just looking, we're like all in
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: on these Lake games. There's only four Lake games day.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: I think we're like deciding between three of them. So
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: only one that I'm like, okay, we have to have
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: it in right now is that we didn't talk about.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Did you mention Colts?
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: Oh shoot Colts, Yeah, no, we should do.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: That's one of those where if it's two and a half,
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: I feel like, all right, that one's automatically going to
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: be in because that's such a good number. So yeah,
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: me and you will wap off this car and we'll
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: get our five. And like we did last weekend, you know,
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: we didn't make a single change. So what you're hearing
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: right now, probably me and Chat are going to go
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: with like the one or two team might be in
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: our and out, but as we see it right now,
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: like the Vikings the Rams, I could see them being
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: on the outside and I was taking a lot of
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: these short home dogs.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, if I had a guess, Pittsburgh plus
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: four Atlanta my two Indie plus two and a half
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: San Francisco minus three and a half might end up
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: being Minnesota plus four, Rams plus four something like that,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Like it all right? Reminder Simon and I will be
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: back with our week five recap episode live on the
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page every Sunday seven thirty pm Eastern.
• 57:20
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• 57:30
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• 57:36
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