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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: See the talk station.
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  Speaker 2: Justh I have a thirty one to fifty five KCD
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  Speaker 2: talk station. I'm very happy Tuesday to you. Always made
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  Speaker 2: extra special because it's this time of week when we
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  Speaker 2: get the Daniel Davis Deep Dive with retired Lieutenant Colonel
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis getting his analysis of the war. Lately, the
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  Speaker 2: war has not been focused over with Russia and Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: but this situation with US and Iran. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to have you on the fifty five
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  Speaker 2: KRC Morning Show.
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  Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to be here, Brian, Thank you, all right.
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  Speaker 2: Sort of a maybe it's rhetorical question, Daniel Davis, but
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  Speaker 2: here's the way I view it. If you're in the middle
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  Speaker 2: of a ceasefire and both sides of the ceasefire start
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  Speaker 2: firing at each other, isn't it definitionally that the ceasefire
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  Speaker 2: is over?
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  Speaker 1: Oh well, according to the Secretary of Defense, just a
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  Speaker 1: couple of minutes ago, I literally just jumped off of
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  Speaker 1: an NBC news hit on there where we were watching
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  Speaker 1: live this press conference in the Pentagon, and he was
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  Speaker 1: specifically asked that question, and they said, nah, it's still
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  Speaker 1: in place. This just kind of low level stuff. It
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  Speaker 1: doesn't meet the threshold, is what the way it was
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  Speaker 1: just so, I guess it doesn't count unless something gets
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  Speaker 1: hit or blown up of sufficient nature because apparently the
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  Speaker 1: Iranian side attack us our ships, and General Kine actually
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  Speaker 1: said that there had been ten such attempts but none
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  Speaker 1: had been successful so far, and apparently there we have
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  Speaker 1: been successful at at least we claim that we knocked
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  Speaker 1: down six of their fast boats. We'll see how that
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  Speaker 1: that's been disputed on the other side. But that's the
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  Speaker 1: claims back and forth. But the bottom line is that
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  Speaker 1: it's not in our interest yet to end the cease first,
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  Speaker 1: and we'll say it's just you know, low level noise,
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  Speaker 1: if that's what you want to call it, unless we're
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  Speaker 1: ready to go back into it. And I think that
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  Speaker 1: would only be done if there was a decision made
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  Speaker 1: to go back in big and I certainly hope we
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  Speaker 1: don't ever do it. I hope we figure a way
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  Speaker 1: to get this over with, But that seems to be
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  Speaker 1: where we are right now.
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  Speaker 2: See, it's been a bit of an Orwellian news speak.
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  Speaker 2: You know, if you say it's not a war, if
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  Speaker 2: you say the seafire is not over it's not over
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  Speaker 2: even if you're shooting each other. But the USS Truxton
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  Speaker 2: and USS Mason, US ships military hardware did come under
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  Speaker 2: what has been described as sustained Iranian attacks. They got
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  Speaker 2: a whole bunch of missiles launched at them in various
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  Speaker 2: I guess a smartar mosquito fleet going after him as well.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's interesting. They also said. One of the
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  Speaker 1: questions that from the press gallery was what are these
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  Speaker 1: fast boats armed with? And both he Secretary of Hecseth
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  Speaker 1: and General Kine both said, oh, it's just small arms
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  Speaker 1: stuff AK forty seven's. They said there was some shore
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  Speaker 1: batteries that had been launching some small cruise missiles anti
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  Speaker 1: ship cruise missiles that he said those were knocked down.
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  Speaker 1: But they ascribed only machine gun fire to these fast boats,
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  Speaker 1: which doesn't make sense to me either. Why would someone
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  Speaker 1: in a fast boat attack a warship with a machine
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  Speaker 1: gun which is just like mosquitos and would just bounce
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  Speaker 1: right off this stuff the whole, So that doesn't seem
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  Speaker 1: to make sense to me, But that's what they're reporting.
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  Speaker 2: Well, and I would seem a fairly easy thing if
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  Speaker 2: you can get us one of those fast boats up
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  Speaker 2: close enough to a ship that you can actually hit.
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  Speaker 2: It wasn't it the USS coal that was attacked that way?
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  Speaker 2: A small bud blew a giant hole in the size
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  Speaker 2: of one of our ships so many years ago.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I did. That was a suicide boat. And Iran
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  Speaker 1: does have those, especially with these other drone boats that
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  Speaker 1: they have, like their Ukraine side does against Russia. But
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  Speaker 1: we haven't seen those employed yet. Well against the US.
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  Speaker 1: We did see them employed against some of the tankers
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  Speaker 1: in the first few days when we saw a lot
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  Speaker 1: of that dramatic you know, scenes of these tankers on
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  Speaker 1: fire in the Gulf. So they have been used before.
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  Speaker 1: They haven't been used lately though.
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  Speaker 2: Well. Obviously the United States is projecting that it wants
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  Speaker 2: to break the stranglehold on the Straight of Horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: That's this project freedom that Trump talked about over the weekend,
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  Speaker 2: providing safe passage to the state of Horror, the state
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  Speaker 2: of horrormus or the Straight of Horror moose for various
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  Speaker 2: shipping companies who you know. He says they're unfairly impacted
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  Speaker 2: by this, and I understand that argument, but it's a
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  Speaker 2: defensive shield. It isn't a physical escort like a US
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  Speaker 2: warship escorting any given ship, but it's sort of a
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  Speaker 2: standback and provide this shield for folks going through. Apparently
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  Speaker 2: many of the shipping He's just saying that's good not
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  Speaker 2: good enough assurances and are relying on in pointing to
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  Speaker 2: these missile launches from the Iranians against various ships, including
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  Speaker 2: the South Korean one that was actually hit. So conceptually
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  Speaker 2: it sounded like, well, won't that work helping people get
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  Speaker 2: through the Strait of horn moves with military power defending them,
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  Speaker 2: or is that an impossibility. We've talked about the mines before,
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  Speaker 2: and there's been wide reports that they have actually removed
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  Speaker 2: some minds over the past several weeks, and that several
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  Speaker 2: boats just the other day are ships I should rather
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  Speaker 2: state have actually gotten through the strait of horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: So is this a strategy that could work?
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  Speaker 1: No, it's not, And listen, whatever whatever we may say
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  Speaker 1: we want to do. They described it as a red
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  Speaker 1: watten and blue bubble. A shield is now they just
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  Speaker 1: described it here that you know, has one hundred planes
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  Speaker 1: in the air and I don't remember how many ships
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  Speaker 1: and some other cassets and I don't know why But
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  Speaker 1: the eighty second Airborne was sited as one of the
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  Speaker 1: organizations that was helping out with this to provide protection.
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  Speaker 1: But I I don't know how you provide protection without
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  Speaker 1: a physical discord, and they said it wasn't a physical escort,
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  Speaker 1: even though there are two apparently warships in the gulf
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  Speaker 1: itself and apparently have transited this strait of horror moves
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  Speaker 1: towards what end. I have no idea why you would
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  Speaker 1: want to send two ships by themselves into that, but
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  Speaker 1: that's allegedly what we've done. But then the biggest issue
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  Speaker 1: is in the Chairman of the Joint Jesus Staff, General Kaine,
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  Speaker 1: said there are hundreds of ships lining up to come out,
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  Speaker 1: but none have And as you pointed out, two ships
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  Speaker 1: work at the South Koreana and one other were attacked
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  Speaker 1: by run yesterday. Look all they've got to do. If
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  Speaker 1: they can't shoot cruise missiles at the US warship, they
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  Speaker 1: certainly can at any tanker because the thing is it's
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  Speaker 1: like a whale. I mean, the thing can't move and
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  Speaker 1: it has no defenses. So if Iran decides they're going
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  Speaker 1: to attack the ships, there's nothing we can do to
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  Speaker 1: stop it, and this shield won't do anything to help
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  Speaker 1: one of these ships, and that's why there hasn't been
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  Speaker 1: one hundred ships moving, only lining up. So so far
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  Speaker 1: we've seen no effective this whatsoever.
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  Speaker 2: So obviously they want to sustain the closure, the straight
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  Speaker 2: upfour moves to bring about the economic pain on the globe.
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  Speaker 2: This is their only leverage at this point, and we
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  Speaker 2: obviously are trying to keep their ports shutdown as well,
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  Speaker 2: which means their economy is continuing to struggle. And lots
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  Speaker 2: and lots of reporting how terrible the Iranian economy is,
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  Speaker 2: and I guess I wonder do the Iranians are the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians hoping to hold off and sustain this. I'll call
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  Speaker 2: it a stalemate for one of a better word on
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  Speaker 2: the fly here until after the November elections, for example,
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  Speaker 2: to bring about some pain to the Trump administration.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, there are. I mean, it's a stalemate of sorts,
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  Speaker 1: but it's dueling blockades and the Iranians, no matter what,
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  Speaker 1: they're suffering at home, and they have mitigation factors for this.
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  Speaker 1: Even they can see that they are. They're hurting and
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  Speaker 1: lots of shortage, et cetera. But they are everybody that
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  Speaker 1: I've talked to, and every report that I've seen, and
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  Speaker 1: I'm talking about on the West and on the Uranian side,
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  Speaker 1: says that they are definitely prepared to suffer for a
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  Speaker 1: long time. They've got history forward and got experience. It's
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  Speaker 1: religious issue. They can suffer for a long time. And
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  Speaker 1: they're saying, hey, we'll drag this out for months, no problem,
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  Speaker 1: we can survive. All they want to do is survive
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  Speaker 1: because it is a literal life and death issue for them.
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  Speaker 1: And so they say, but we don't think you can
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  Speaker 1: because there's already and it's not even November, we're going
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  Speaker 1: to start suffering severe economic contraction about the end of
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  Speaker 1: this month, in the first of June, according to many
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  Speaker 1: of the experts I've inquired about. So I think they're
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  Speaker 1: looking at those dates and they're saying, yeah, you want
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  Speaker 1: to do this blockade, We'll keep doing the blockade, but
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  Speaker 1: we can hold longer than you can. That seems to
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  Speaker 1: be their strategy.
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  Speaker 2: What of our larger foes in the world, the Chinese
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  Speaker 2: and to some extent, the Russians, although I think they've
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  Speaker 2: been given a lot more projected, a lot more strength,
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  Speaker 2: and actually have my subjective opinion, but seems to me
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese and the Russians might have a vested interest
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  Speaker 2: in continuing the thorn that is on our side. Along
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  Speaker 2: these lines, Are they providing any financial or other material
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  Speaker 2: support to the Iranians behind the scenes, because as I understand,
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese are having a difficult time with the straight
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  Speaker 2: of horror moves closure themselves.
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  Speaker 1: They are in both cases they are having some problems
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  Speaker 1: with the oil not coming out, but they also have
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  Speaker 1: a massively bigger strategic patroleum reserve that can last nine months,
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  Speaker 1: which is way bigger than what we had even percentage wise,
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  Speaker 1: so they can weather this storm for a long time.
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  Speaker 1: Though they are trying to get some ships out. But
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  Speaker 1: the one thing they had they have done is they
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  Speaker 1: directly contradicted something that Scott Bessen put out this past weekend.
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  Speaker 1: I think it was about some more sanctions on anybody
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  Speaker 1: helping anybody taking into these oil that tries to break
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  Speaker 1: the our blockade, and China says, yeah, no, you're not.
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  Speaker 1: And they said these five Chinese entities that we said
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  Speaker 1: are sanctioned, they said no, they're non sanctioned, and we
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  Speaker 1: got back We're going to back them up. The corporations
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  Speaker 1: that are working on this, so they are directly contradicting
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  Speaker 1: our attempts to sanction anybody else. And they do want
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  Speaker 1: this to come out. And there has been reports of
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  Speaker 1: both Russia and China bringing airlift of unknow quantities or supplies.
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  Speaker 1: We just know that ships, I'm sorry, planes are coming in.
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  Speaker 1: We just don't know what's being unloaded.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I only brought that up because it is something
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  Speaker 2: we need to take into consideration. The Iranians by themselves,
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  Speaker 2: and that any assistance from outside, you know, might face
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  Speaker 2: economic collapse. But if they're getting help and they can
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  Speaker 2: help them sustain this war of attrition or this stalemate,
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  Speaker 2: obviously that are nearest to their benefit and to the
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  Speaker 2: detriment of the United States of America and the global economy.
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  Speaker 2: Do you see anybody any of our maybe call them
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  Speaker 2: former allies, I don't know, like to think of NATO
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  Speaker 2: is still at least NATO countries and the European Union.
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  Speaker 2: We still trade and and play nicely with them, relatively speaking.
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  Speaker 2: They're hurt big time on this. So do you see
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  Speaker 2: them changing course and maybe capitulating and offering any assistance
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  Speaker 2: down the road. I know you've been saying no for
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  Speaker 2: quite some time now, any any landscape change on that,
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, there hasn't been. As a matter of fact
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  Speaker 1: that the South Rans are still saying no. And over
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  Speaker 1: the weekend you had Menuel Macron say, listen, he was
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  Speaker 1: asked that question at a press conference on Sunday, I
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  Speaker 1: believe it was, and and he said, listen, we had
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  Speaker 1: a plan in place. There was fifty European nations to
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  Speaker 1: get together. I think you and I mentioned this before,
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  Speaker 1: where we weren't invited and they were trying to figure
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  Speaker 1: out ways to get the Strait opened up and all this,
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  Speaker 1: and he said, and then in the middle of it,
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  Speaker 1: America puts a blockade on it, which undid everything we
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  Speaker 1: were working on it. So no, we have no plans
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  Speaker 1: to come and help this military blockade. We won't even participate.
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  Speaker 1: So he's saying, no, that's not going to work, and
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  Speaker 1: it won't and I think that they recognized it. So
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  Speaker 1: nobody's going to send their ships into a suicide mission.
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  Speaker 1: We're not even putting our ships. And until we have
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  Speaker 1: our ships and say we're going to escort something out,
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  Speaker 1: nobody else is even going to possibly come and do
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  Speaker 1: what we won't do. And I think that's really where
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  Speaker 1: the rub comes in.
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  Speaker 2: So as we part coming today, Daniel Davis, this again
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  Speaker 2: stale me war of attrition. Whatever you see this continuing
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  Speaker 2: down the road with no hope for any negotiated piece.
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  Speaker 2: Is that kind of where you are right now?
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  Speaker 1: I mean that's where we are. And listen, I've getting
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  Speaker 1: reports from those at the front line. General Cain mentioned
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  Speaker 1: it again just a few minutes ago. Everything is locked
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  Speaker 1: and loaded. All this is is a political choice. The
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  Speaker 1: minute that President Trump says, are I'm sick of this,
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  Speaker 1: I'm impatient that this didn't work. Go with that. They
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  Speaker 1: can do it on a minute, I mean in a heartbeat.
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  Speaker 1: The problem is that what we're doing now has no
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  Speaker 1: prospect of succeeding getting this done, and that prices of
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  Speaker 1: old goes up every day, and the amount of fertilizers
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  Speaker 1: and things coming out is not and that is causing
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  Speaker 1: problems with our farmers, with their allies. These things just
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  Speaker 1: you can't just keep kicking this can down the road.
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  Speaker 1: We have weeks and we're going to have to do
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  Speaker 1: something to either diplomatically open that straight, or we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: do something even more foolish and try to force it
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  Speaker 1: militarily anyway, and catastrophe, that's how I see it.
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  Speaker 2: You mean, blown off the face of the earth if
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  Speaker 2: they attack US vessels, that kind of thing. Daniel Davis, you.
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  Speaker 1: Could use that phrase. I don't know where it came from.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know that.
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  Speaker 2: I just saw somebody who was quoted as saying that
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  Speaker 2: the other day. Daniel Davis Deep Die I find his
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  Speaker 2: podcast where you find your podcast. Tune in every Tuesday
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  Speaker 2: at eight thirty for the Daniel Davis Deepdive here in
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  Speaker 2: the fifty five carssee Morning Show. Appreciate your analysis, Daniel,
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  Speaker 2: as always, have a great week. We'll do it again
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  Speaker 2: next Tuesday.