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Friday BEST BETS | Friday Focus | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/21/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
0:20
Speaker 1: your checks.
0:21
Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt. Man, you look like a mess.
0:25
Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
0:31
Speaker 3: Like they made you this man.
0:33
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet?
0:35
Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
0:39
Speaker 1: something on somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
0:45
Speaker 1: look at me.
0:46
Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on, nothing.
0:54
Speaker 3: Nice not now, hold on, hold on and me.
1:10
Speaker 2: But it an'll get the crown.
1:14
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 2: Now, what's up, burd buddy, it's towed back with you
1:30
Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports for Friday, August twenty. First, we had to
1:35
Speaker 2: win on the show you say it with the Atlanta
1:37
Speaker 2: Braves two to nothing, but they kind of dominated that game.
1:42
Speaker 2: Grant Holmes had a no hitter, I'm pretty sure until
1:44
Speaker 2: the seventh inning. So if you don't win that, there's
1:48
Speaker 2: something wrong with you. Pretty much. Atlanta didn't really capitalize
1:51
Speaker 2: on the offense that they did have, though, I mean,
1:55
Speaker 2: they had way more base runners in the game. I
1:56
Speaker 2: think they won the hit battle ten to one, ten
2:00
Speaker 2: to two, something like that. Maybe it was eight to one,
2:02
Speaker 2: eight to two. Whatever it was. Atlanta had way more hits,
2:05
Speaker 2: probably should have won more easily. Don't listen to me
2:08
Speaker 2: on many other things though. NFL preseason very unpredictable. Crazy
2:14
Speaker 2: finished to the Raiders game last night, but it is preseason,
2:17
Speaker 2: so maybe Aidan O'Connell should be their starter and the Raiders, yeah,
2:23
Speaker 2: I mean, I think their kicking battle has been decided.
2:28
Speaker 2: I didn't realize the Raiders had two guys competing for
2:30
Speaker 2: the job, and one is Matt Gay, who I thought
2:32
Speaker 2: was still a pretty good kicker, and some other guy
2:36
Speaker 2: who've never heard of, who's Japanese. I think that guy
2:38
Speaker 2: can't make a fucking kick. So obviously that guy's not
2:41
Speaker 2: gonna make the roster. Like, I don't know what we're
2:43
Speaker 2: doing here. He missed I think two extra points yesterday
2:47
Speaker 2: or whatever. Anyway, let's get into baseball here. I'm gonna
2:52
Speaker 2: give out two baseball players that I don't love this
2:54
Speaker 2: board much at all. Let's go through it. Man. We
2:59
Speaker 2: do have an an afternoon game, late afternoon game Atlanta
3:03
Speaker 2: and Milwaukee, which is ESPN Unlimited. It is a an
3:08
Speaker 2: elite pitching matchup in this game, and it's a big
3:10
Speaker 2: weekend series. Maybe That's why this game is getting kind
3:13
Speaker 2: of isolated here so people can watch it and it
3:16
Speaker 2: looks like one of those games where the under is
3:18
Speaker 2: gonna make sense. But this is probably the lowest total
3:21
Speaker 2: that I've seen all season in baseball, so I'm like, yeah,
3:25
Speaker 2: I don't really want it. We do have two good
3:28
Speaker 2: bullpens in this one. Atlanta used three relief pitchers yesterday.
3:31
Speaker 2: Both teams did play yesterday, Milwaukee used three as well.
3:38
Speaker 2: As far as the travel though, Atlanta's playing a third
3:40
Speaker 2: game in three days, all in different cities because they
3:43
Speaker 2: were in Minnesota, got swept there. Then I took them yesterday,
3:47
Speaker 2: as you remember, and they were in Chicago and played
3:50
Speaker 2: a makeup game against the White Sox. Now they're going
3:53
Speaker 2: to Milwaukee. Good news for Atlanta though, is that that's
3:56
Speaker 2: not a lot of travel between Chicago and Milwaukee, and
3:58
Speaker 2: really they're just kind of staying in the Midwest area here,
4:02
Speaker 2: So it could be worse playing three days in three
4:05
Speaker 2: different cities. It's a rarity in baseball, but the travel
4:08
Speaker 2: spot definitely could be worse for them than it is.
4:11
Speaker 2: Milwaukee is staying at home, which is obviously better for them.
4:15
Speaker 2: They just won the series against the Mariners yesterday. Milwaukee.
4:22
Speaker 2: I think Milwaukee probably has the better bullpen at this point.
4:24
Speaker 2: They're number five, Atlanta's number three. These are both good bullpens,
4:28
Speaker 2: though they're both like top five bullpens. Milwaukee probably is
4:32
Speaker 2: the better offense at this point as well. There's seventh,
4:34
Speaker 2: Atlanta's dropped to fourteenth, and Atlanta has not been hitting
4:37
Speaker 2: well recently. Milwaukee might be the better team here man,
4:42
Speaker 2: and they might have the better starting pitcher on the
4:44
Speaker 2: mound here too. It might be like a changing of
4:47
Speaker 2: the guard here, but we will see, because you're gonna
4:49
Speaker 2: have the old timer against the young gun here. Chris
4:52
Speaker 2: Sales pitching for Atlanta. The old timer. I think the
4:57
Speaker 2: age cap in this starting pitching matchup is like what
4:59
Speaker 2: like fourteen years. Sale has had a really good season
5:03
Speaker 2: two point one six ERA, one point oh two whip.
5:06
Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse on the road two point
5:08
Speaker 2: sixty nine. Roady Ira. I don't really care that much
5:12
Speaker 2: about that though. He's still pitching well, a lot of
5:16
Speaker 2: strikeouts recently, just not doing anything that's really that bad.
5:20
Speaker 2: Low hit rate, really low walk rate on the season,
5:23
Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. All that stuff is good. You know
5:26
Speaker 2: that means yeah, case case for nine and strikeout walk
5:29
Speaker 2: ratio are all good. Still, he hasn't even seen really
5:32
Speaker 2: that much of a drop off from what he's looked
5:34
Speaker 2: like throughout his career. Jacob Mizierowski is pitching from Milwaukee.
5:38
Speaker 2: One point seven five ERA for him, iner point seventy
5:42
Speaker 2: five whip just ridiculous. Like opposing offenses can't even reach
5:46
Speaker 2: base against this guy. Uh, this is maybe a say
5:50
Speaker 2: young battle, but it's mis Zierowski's to lose here, man, Like,
5:53
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna win it. He has the same
5:55
Speaker 2: ERA at home and away. It doesn't even matter his
5:59
Speaker 2: opponent bad average is ridiculous, by the way, it's like
6:02
Speaker 2: one fifty or less. I think in both cases it's
6:06
Speaker 2: a little bit above one fifty at home, but that's
6:08
Speaker 2: still insane. He's pitching really well still as well, good
6:12
Speaker 2: command numbers here. Coming into this year, the question was
6:16
Speaker 2: is he gonna get his walk number down? And yeah,
6:18
Speaker 2: he definitely has. He's basically unhittable. I think he might
6:21
Speaker 2: have the lowest hit rate in baseball. He doesn't really
6:24
Speaker 2: walk many guys at this point either, and his strikeout
6:27
Speaker 2: rate is insane. It might be the highest strikeout rate
6:30
Speaker 2: in baseball as well. Strike up walk ratio is really high.
6:34
Speaker 2: Strike up for nine is pretty insane. Like I said,
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Speaker 2: thirteen point six, his numbers against Atlanta nineteen at bats,
6:42
Speaker 2: two eleven average, four to sixty one oh ps, five
6:45
Speaker 2: to one at strikeout walk ratio, no extra base hits
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Speaker 2: agains him. It's a small sample, but I don't expect
6:50
Speaker 2: him to do poorly obviously. I don't expect Sale to
6:53
Speaker 2: do poorly either. Sail by the way against Milwaukee, because
6:56
Speaker 2: I forgot to look at that, I'm all over the
6:59
Speaker 2: place here. He's held them to a two forty four
7:02
Speaker 2: batting average, five to ninety six ohps, eighty six at bats,
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Speaker 2: thirty four strikeouts and six walks, So those numbers are
7:09
Speaker 2: pretty good as well. I mean, I think there's no
7:12
Speaker 2: way to really look besides the under in this game.
7:15
Speaker 2: The problem is the totals at six. Like I said,
7:19
Speaker 2: I think it's the lowest total that I've seen all season,
7:22
Speaker 2: and maybe rightfully so. I mean, this is an elite
7:24
Speaker 2: pitching matchup here. I wouldn't want to be on an over.
7:28
Speaker 2: You got good bullpends too. I mean, the under is
7:31
Speaker 2: probably really the only way to look at this game,
7:33
Speaker 2: but I don't want to do it when the total
7:35
Speaker 2: is that low. Although the oddsmakers are telling you something
7:39
Speaker 2: by putting the total that low, they think it's gonna
7:41
Speaker 2: be a very low scoring game as well, And you'd
7:44
Speaker 2: have to be insane to think otherwise. Probably it's just
7:46
Speaker 2: a matter of how low is it gonna go. Uh
7:49
Speaker 2: seventy per ticket, seventy three percent of the cash on
7:51
Speaker 2: the over. I'm not really sure that a lot of money,
7:56
Speaker 2: like professional money, is really actually hitting the over in
7:59
Speaker 2: this game. I wouldn't think, so, It's just it's a
8:01
Speaker 2: stay away from me, Like I like the under, but
8:04
Speaker 2: at that number, I just don't want to do it.
8:06
Speaker 2: Uh seventy one percent of tickets, eighty five percent of
8:08
Speaker 2: the cash on Milwaukee at about minus one thirty something here.
8:13
Speaker 2: So again, it could be a changing of the guard here.
8:15
Speaker 2: Both pictures should be up for this. Missierowski is probably
8:19
Speaker 2: gonna be excited to go against one of the h
8:21
Speaker 2: like a future Hall of Fame pitcher and Chris Sale,
8:24
Speaker 2: and Chris Sale probably wants to hold down the fort,
8:27
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like, yeah, you're you're not
8:29
Speaker 2: going to take over this thing yet, young man, you
8:33
Speaker 2: know what I mean, So probably motivation for both pictures here, Zach,
8:37
Speaker 2: what's up? Happy for Friday? I thinks for hanging out, Uh,
8:41
Speaker 2: your kids' city Royals. I believe they're on a five
8:45
Speaker 2: game win streak, so there you go, Saint Louis and Philadelphia. Philadelphia,
8:50
Speaker 2: I believe was off yesterday and they just got a
8:53
Speaker 2: Nester Cortes for some reason. Who if you remember Cortez.
8:58
Speaker 2: I forgot about this. He does this weird like twist
9:01
Speaker 2: during his wind up that I think is a back like.
9:03
Speaker 2: I don't know how they allow him to do what
9:05
Speaker 2: he does where it's like he stops his wind up
9:07
Speaker 2: and then continues it. The dude like, I don't know
9:10
Speaker 2: how it's allowed. It's bizarre. I don't think he's that
9:13
Speaker 2: good of a pitcher, but Philly picked him up. We'll
9:15
Speaker 2: see what happens with that. I mean, he'll if he's
9:18
Speaker 2: actually on the team, he'll be like their number five
9:21
Speaker 2: starter in the rotation, which it can't really get much
9:24
Speaker 2: worse than Andrew Painter right now, so whatever. Anyway, Philly
9:27
Speaker 2: has won six games in a row. They just swept
9:31
Speaker 2: the Marlins. They're staying at home. I believe Philly was
9:34
Speaker 2: off yesterday and Saint Louis had to play yesterday, so
9:37
Speaker 2: Philadelphia has a rest advantage and they're not having to travel.
9:40
Speaker 2: Saint Louis just won in a crazy, high scoring game
9:43
Speaker 2: against the Reds yesterday. They won that series, and now
9:46
Speaker 2: they're coming into this game traveling here. So some advantages
9:51
Speaker 2: to Philly here, and the starting pitching is going to
9:54
Speaker 2: favor Philly as well, and that's gonna be kind of
9:56
Speaker 2: the problem here is Philadelphia probably is the right side,
9:59
Speaker 2: but they're way too heavy of a favorite here. Saint
10:03
Speaker 2: Louis used four relief pitchers yesterday, well, Philly didn't play,
10:07
Speaker 2: so that should give Philly the bullpen edge here. Phillies
10:10
Speaker 2: ranked eighteenth in bullpen, but I think they're worse than that.
10:12
Speaker 2: Their era is not that good. Saint Louis has the
10:15
Speaker 2: better era, but the ranked twenty first. They'll given the
10:19
Speaker 2: lack of rest for Saint Louis, I'll give the bullpen
10:22
Speaker 2: edge to Philly in this game, but I don't think
10:23
Speaker 2: it's that significant. Neither offense has been very good. Philly's
10:28
Speaker 2: getting a little bit better, and they're better at home.
10:30
Speaker 2: At least they're nineteenth. Saint Louis twenty fourth, so I'll
10:33
Speaker 2: give Philly an offensive edge as well. Hunter Dobbins is
10:36
Speaker 2: pitching for Saint Louis. He's he's alright. I mean like
10:40
Speaker 2: he's a guy that usually will come in there and
10:42
Speaker 2: be decent enough that you won't be dead in the game.
10:46
Speaker 2: But is that going to be good enough going up
10:47
Speaker 2: against one of Philly's good pitchers. Probably not. Dobbins three
10:52
Speaker 2: point four to two ERA one point three whip. The
10:55
Speaker 2: whip indicates his the IRA should be higher than it is.
10:58
Speaker 2: He's been so somewhat good on the road. His opponent
11:01
Speaker 2: batting average on the road is low two sixteen. He's
11:04
Speaker 2: not pitching too badly here, except that his walk rate
11:07
Speaker 2: looks like kind of an issue here. Seventeen to ten
11:10
Speaker 2: strike out walk raceier this month and sixteen or third innings. Yeah,
11:14
Speaker 2: you can't really keep getting away with walking that many guys.
11:17
Speaker 2: He did face Philly two starts ago in Saint Louis,
11:20
Speaker 2: and he only allowed one on and run in five
11:22
Speaker 2: innings in that one, but was kind of walk heavy.
11:24
Speaker 2: He walked three guys in that one. He does have
11:27
Speaker 2: kind of a low hit rate here. He walks too
11:29
Speaker 2: many guys his strikeout rate is okay, so the bad
11:33
Speaker 2: number for him is the walks. But it was kind
11:35
Speaker 2: of weird that he wasn't anywhere to start the season
11:38
Speaker 2: because he was decent enough for the Red Sox last year.
11:41
Speaker 2: You think that some team would have had him to
11:43
Speaker 2: start the season. And he's obviously like he's capable of pitching,
11:47
Speaker 2: like he's nowhere close to the worst pitcher in baseball
11:50
Speaker 2: or anything like that. His straight out walk ratio is
11:53
Speaker 2: not great, though straight up for nine is actually kind
11:57
Speaker 2: of hide. It's gone up from where it was last year,
12:00
Speaker 2: but it's a small sample size here. Uh. Dobbins against
12:04
Speaker 2: Philadelphia has been good, although a lot of it was
12:07
Speaker 2: that last start. He had eighteen at bats two twenty
12:09
Speaker 2: two average, five fifty six OPS six to three strikeout
12:13
Speaker 2: walk ratio, So I don't necessarily want to fade him.
12:17
Speaker 2: He's not the better pitcher though in this matchup. Hezus
12:20
Speaker 2: Lozardo's pitching for Philly really good season from him three
12:24
Speaker 2: point two to three RA, one point one five whip.
12:27
Speaker 2: He was getting unlucky, I felt early in the season,
12:30
Speaker 2: and his homy array still hasn't completely gone down. It's
12:33
Speaker 2: four point six to three, so he has been worse
12:35
Speaker 2: at home, but he's been better at home recently. Like
12:38
Speaker 2: his home rray was over six for a while, so
12:41
Speaker 2: he's gotten that way down. He's been better at home,
12:43
Speaker 2: Like I said, recently, his last home start he kind
12:46
Speaker 2: of dominated Toronto. Although it is Toronto, they suck offensively,
12:50
Speaker 2: but prior to that he had good home starts against
12:53
Speaker 2: Washington against the Yankees. So even though the Yankees are
12:57
Speaker 2: struggling offensively right now, that's still pretty impressive. He's in
13:01
Speaker 2: good form right now. Twenty eight to five strike out
13:03
Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. Philly's won all three of his
13:06
Speaker 2: starts this month. Yeah, this is he's putting up some
13:09
Speaker 2: good stuff here. Low hit rate, his walk rate isn't
13:13
Speaker 2: really too high either. Strike out rate is quite high,
13:16
Speaker 2: so those numbers all look good. Strike out walk ratio solid,
13:20
Speaker 2: even though if he does have any issue, it is
13:22
Speaker 2: still the walks, but it's not too bad. His strike
13:25
Speaker 2: out rate is the highest that it's been in his
13:27
Speaker 2: career actually this year, so he is debatably actually having
13:31
Speaker 2: his best season of his career here against Saint Louis,
13:36
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be that intimidating of an offense. They
13:39
Speaker 2: have twenty at bats against him. Five of their hitters
13:41
Speaker 2: have faced him. It's a small sample, two fifty average,
13:45
Speaker 2: five point fifty oh ps three, zero strikeout walk ratio.
13:50
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Philly probably should have the edges
13:53
Speaker 2: in this game because they do have the rest edge.
13:56
Speaker 2: Like I said, they have the better pitcher on the
13:58
Speaker 2: mound here. Probably they have the bullpen edge because of
14:01
Speaker 2: the rest here. You gotta pay for it though, they're
14:04
Speaker 2: like minus two hundred above minus two hundred seventy eight
14:07
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash on them.
14:11
Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to do it at that price. It
14:14
Speaker 2: looks like Saint Louis is actually undecided right now, so
14:16
Speaker 2: I don't even know if if it's gonna be Dobbins
14:18
Speaker 2: or not. That makes this more difficult to figure out.
14:22
Speaker 2: If it is Dobbins, I would say first five under
14:25
Speaker 2: makes some sense here. The full game totals at eight.
14:28
Speaker 2: The money is kind of indicating on the under fifty
14:31
Speaker 2: to fifty on the ticket percentage there on the total
14:35
Speaker 2: fifty three percent of the cash on the under. Yeah,
14:38
Speaker 2: if it's Dobbins Lozardo, they both do have good matchup numbers.
14:42
Speaker 2: So I could see that being a first five under,
14:44
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't really want to deal with the Bullpens,
14:46
Speaker 2: especially not Saint Louis, so that might be a way
14:49
Speaker 2: to look at it. The first five under. I think
14:51
Speaker 2: Philly will win, but there isn't really a great way
14:54
Speaker 2: to play that. I mean, I guess you could lay
14:57
Speaker 2: the run line the minus one and a half with
14:59
Speaker 2: Philly and take your chances with it, but they won't
15:01
Speaker 2: bat in the ninth inning potentially, and that might hurt
15:04
Speaker 2: you because then if they're winning by one, you're gonna
15:06
Speaker 2: lose your bet. But it's a game that Philly might
15:09
Speaker 2: be able to win by multiple runs there, so I
15:11
Speaker 2: don't think the run line is off the table for
15:14
Speaker 2: that one. Toronto and the Yankees. Yankees just swept Baltimore,
15:20
Speaker 2: completing that series yesterday. They're coming back home, so the
15:23
Speaker 2: Yankees are in a return home spot coming back from
15:26
Speaker 2: Toronto and Baltimore. So they just were in Toronto. Toronto
15:29
Speaker 2: actually beat them two out of three in that series.
15:32
Speaker 2: Yankees might get up for this because of that, and
15:36
Speaker 2: because it's probably still sticking in their mind that Toronto's
15:38
Speaker 2: the team that eliminated them last year. So the Yankees
15:41
Speaker 2: probably still will get up for games against Toronto. Toronto
15:44
Speaker 2: will get up for it too. I mean, Toronto's playing
15:47
Speaker 2: to win against these teams, right They played well against
15:49
Speaker 2: the Yankees. They just played reasonably well against Tampa Bay.
15:53
Speaker 2: I would say, so yeah, And it's not a great
15:57
Speaker 2: spot for the Yankees returning home from a road you know,
16:00
Speaker 2: I always talk about that teams could get a little
16:02
Speaker 2: bit distracted in a spot like that. Yankees obviously are
16:06
Speaker 2: gonna make the playoffs. It's just a matter of can
16:08
Speaker 2: they catch up the Tampa in the division, which yeah,
16:11
Speaker 2: they want to do, but they're they have a big
16:13
Speaker 2: lead in the wild card. They're sitting atop the wildcard
16:17
Speaker 2: race and they're probably not gonna fall out of that spot.
16:20
Speaker 2: So Red Sox are four games behind them right now.
16:24
Speaker 2: Red Socks did not play yesterday. Toronto is coming in
16:26
Speaker 2: from beating a Tampa Bay. So I was correct about that.
16:29
Speaker 2: Shane bieb or good start yesterday from Toronto. Man, I
16:33
Speaker 2: don't think he's done yet. Uh. They're coming in from
16:36
Speaker 2: that game that was a big win. They're still not
16:38
Speaker 2: going to overlook the Yankees though, So I do think
16:40
Speaker 2: both teams will show up for this uh. As far
16:44
Speaker 2: as the bullpen usage, the Yankees only use one guy
16:46
Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen's rested. Toronto
16:50
Speaker 2: only used two, but they used Viarland their closer, even
16:53
Speaker 2: though I don't know why they did that in a
16:55
Speaker 2: game where they had a four run lead. Doesn't really
16:58
Speaker 2: totally make sense because you knew you're gonna have to
17:00
Speaker 2: face the Yankees, So why are you using your closer?
17:03
Speaker 2: I don't know. But the Yankees have the better bullpen here.
17:05
Speaker 2: They're ranks second in bullpen. It's close between them and
17:08
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Toronto is sixteenth, but decent bullpen, but
17:12
Speaker 2: the Yankees are better. Yankees. Despite all their offensive struggles,
17:16
Speaker 2: there's still the better offense over Toronto. There's sixteenth, Toronto's
17:20
Speaker 2: twenty eighth right now. Cleveland is a last again here,
17:24
Speaker 2: Toronto's tied with Seattle in twenty eighth. Yeah great. Toronto
17:28
Speaker 2: has not decided on a starting pitcher, and if you
17:30
Speaker 2: go back five games ago, it looks like it's a
17:33
Speaker 2: bullpen game for Toronto here and that is not good.
17:36
Speaker 2: So if you wanted to fade the Yankees in the
17:38
Speaker 2: return home spot, I would not be doing that in
17:41
Speaker 2: this game. I just I can't trust the Toronto bullpen game, man,
17:45
Speaker 2: I just can't do it. And the Yankees look like
17:48
Speaker 2: it was gonna be Cam Schlittler, but they're actually undecided.
17:51
Speaker 2: Don't know, it looks like it is. Yeah, So Fluardi
17:53
Speaker 2: is actually now the listed starter for Toronto. He's a
17:56
Speaker 2: relief pitcher, so yes, it's a bullpen game for Toront
18:00
Speaker 2: on him, and it will be Schlitzler for the Yankees.
18:04
Speaker 2: For Schlittler really good season, two point one ninety or
18:07
Speaker 2: a point nine to four whip, he's ahead of He's
18:11
Speaker 2: ahead in the Cy Young race still for the al
18:14
Speaker 2: The thing you have to worry about with him is
18:17
Speaker 2: his innings count here. He's above one hundred and fifty
18:19
Speaker 2: innings now this season, and it's by far the most
18:22
Speaker 2: that he's ever thrown. So the question is is he
18:26
Speaker 2: gonna like have a drop off here? You could argue
18:29
Speaker 2: it's kind of already happening because two of his last
18:31
Speaker 2: three starts weren't really that good, and the Yankees have
18:33
Speaker 2: actually lost his last four starts, although two of them
18:37
Speaker 2: are really good. Against the White Sox in Atlanta, didn't
18:40
Speaker 2: really pitch well at all against Saint Louis and then
18:42
Speaker 2: he had some more walk issues against Toronto last time out,
18:45
Speaker 2: although he did enough that the Yankees could have won
18:47
Speaker 2: that game. But the Yankees put up no offense in
18:50
Speaker 2: that one, so that's what happened in that one. Schlitler, Yeah,
18:54
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think he's done yet, but I
18:56
Speaker 2: think you probably shouldn't treat him as like the most
18:59
Speaker 2: elite pitcher right now, just because of the amount of
19:01
Speaker 2: innings that he's thrown. But I think you should still
19:04
Speaker 2: treat him as a good pitcher. And he is going
19:05
Speaker 2: up against the Toronto lineup that sucks. Toronto did just
19:10
Speaker 2: see him, but I don't know if that really matters
19:12
Speaker 2: that much. Schlittler low hit rate, high strike out rate,
19:15
Speaker 2: low walk rate, and you know, all that stuff is good.
19:18
Speaker 2: Strike out walk ratio is very high. Strike up for
19:20
Speaker 2: nine is also very high. Schlitler against Toronto. Toronto was
19:27
Speaker 2: actually getting to him until the last time out. He
19:29
Speaker 2: actually improved his numbers against Toronto last time out. They
19:33
Speaker 2: have eighty nine at bats against him. Now, it's still
19:35
Speaker 2: a bad strike out walk ratio for Schlitler. Here, twenty
19:38
Speaker 2: two strike cuts is good, but eleven Walks is kind
19:40
Speaker 2: of crazy, so he's had some command issues against Toronto.
19:44
Speaker 2: But Toronto, I believe, was hitting like two to eighty
19:47
Speaker 2: often with seven seventy ops or something prior to last start.
19:52
Speaker 2: Now we're looking at a two fifty eight average at
19:54
Speaker 2: six forty three ops against him, so he got his
19:56
Speaker 2: numbers against them down. I don't think Schlitler's gonna pitch
19:59
Speaker 2: badly here, but if you want the Yankees, you have
20:01
Speaker 2: to pay a massive price for it. They're at like
20:04
Speaker 2: minus two thirty here down for minus two to fifty,
20:06
Speaker 2: so some actual money is back in Toronto here eighty
20:09
Speaker 2: three percent of the tickets fifty one percent of the
20:11
Speaker 2: cash on the Yankees, so they're a heavily public side
20:14
Speaker 2: with a lot less of the money on them. Looks
20:17
Speaker 2: like kind of a pros versus Joe's market here with
20:20
Speaker 2: the Yankees being the Joe's side. And yeah, I mean,
20:24
Speaker 2: it's about the price, and probably I guess because the
20:26
Speaker 2: Yankees are in a return home spot. So those are
20:31
Speaker 2: indicators that maybe it makes sense to be looking towards Toronto.
20:34
Speaker 2: But it's such a disadvantage with Toronto having a bullpen
20:38
Speaker 2: game against Schlitler. I don't see them coming away with
20:41
Speaker 2: the win here, man, I would be pretty surprised. The
20:45
Speaker 2: total is low though it's it's seven or seven and
20:48
Speaker 2: a half, and the money is kind of indicated towards
20:50
Speaker 2: the under. I wouldn't really want to risk it on
20:52
Speaker 2: that either, but it might make sense because these offenses
20:55
Speaker 2: have both been bad recently, so the under there are
20:59
Speaker 2: some things that sort of indicate that way. And the
21:02
Speaker 2: last time these two teams played two series ago, I'm
21:04
Speaker 2: pretty sure that the games were pretty low scoring, so
21:07
Speaker 2: there is that. So it's more a product of how
21:10
Speaker 2: these offenses are playing recently, I would say. But maybe
21:13
Speaker 2: the under makes some sense. I don't think I would. Yeah,
21:17
Speaker 2: I mean I think I would lean more towards an
21:19
Speaker 2: under than an over in this game, let's put it
21:21
Speaker 2: that way. I don't have a good feel for the
21:22
Speaker 2: side though. I mean, it's just the matchup should favor
21:26
Speaker 2: the Yankees enough that they should win. But if you're
21:29
Speaker 2: gonna play the Yankees, you gotta lay a minus one
21:31
Speaker 2: and a half. And I would not do that, especially
21:33
Speaker 2: not in that situation that they're in. And I don't
21:35
Speaker 2: think the price is quite right on that. It's a
21:38
Speaker 2: very hefty price, and you pretty much know you're gonna
21:41
Speaker 2: have to pay extra for Yankees with Schlitzler Zach. Yes, yeah, Royals,
21:48
Speaker 2: great season. They just swept the Athletics. Man, come on
21:51
Speaker 2: in a four game series, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
21:53
Speaker 2: for hanging out. Thank you for the jewels. I still
21:56
Speaker 2: haven't figured it out, but the jewels might translate into
22:00
Speaker 2: like money. I'm not sure. It seems like the episodes
22:02
Speaker 2: where you give me the jewels, like it gives me
22:04
Speaker 2: like a buck for every ten or something like that.
22:08
Speaker 2: I don't know, but thank you, sir San Francisco at
22:11
Speaker 2: my Boston Red Sox here. And of course, you know
22:15
Speaker 2: a game where the Red Sox have one of their
22:17
Speaker 2: better starters on the mound, of course they have to
22:19
Speaker 2: go up against San Francisco's best starter in this game.
22:22
Speaker 2: And then tomorrow the Red Sox are putting sand of
22:24
Speaker 2: all out there, who should not even be on the
22:27
Speaker 2: team at this point. Oh god, the Red Sox might
22:31
Speaker 2: lose both these games, man, and the Red Sox have
22:33
Speaker 2: no business losing to the fucking giants in Boston. Red
22:37
Speaker 2: Sox should at least be the more motivated team because
22:40
Speaker 2: they're trying to maintain their wildcard spot. Giants don't have
22:43
Speaker 2: a whole lot to play for, although this is the
22:46
Speaker 2: the Dever's battle, although the Red Sox already played against
22:50
Speaker 2: the Giants after that trade happens, so I don't know
22:53
Speaker 2: if that really matters either. Red Sox had yesterday off,
22:56
Speaker 2: the Giants played yesterday, so the Red Sox do have
22:59
Speaker 2: a rest advantage. Red Sox are staying at home. They
23:02
Speaker 2: lost in extra innings in the last game to Arizona,
23:05
Speaker 2: which was kind of bullshit. Red Sox had the lead
23:09
Speaker 2: or only in the game they blew the lead. Then
23:11
Speaker 2: they had a huge home run from Mickey Gasper, who
23:14
Speaker 2: homered in every game in that series. Even though Gasper's
23:18
Speaker 2: like thirty one and he's never done anything in Major
23:21
Speaker 2: League Baseball, but he was like crushing in Triple A.
23:23
Speaker 2: So they're like, all right, we have too many injuries
23:26
Speaker 2: right now, let's call him up. And now he's hitting
23:28
Speaker 2: a home run in every game. It makes no fucking sense,
23:30
Speaker 2: Like I don't even think he's good, but whatever. Anyway,
23:35
Speaker 2: Red Sox have a rest advantage here. They're staying at home.
23:37
Speaker 2: San Francisco is having to travel in from Cleveland, where
23:40
Speaker 2: they played yesterday and Cleveland got back on the winning
23:44
Speaker 2: track with a win there. Cleveland, you know, I said,
23:46
Speaker 2: maybe stick a fork in them if they lost that series.
23:49
Speaker 2: But Cleveland has a lot of weak opponents that they're
23:51
Speaker 2: facing here, including Colorado starting tonight. So Cleveland is not
23:57
Speaker 2: done yet because they're facing a bunch of bad teams
24:00
Speaker 2: coming up here and they're in the middle of that
24:02
Speaker 2: right now. San Francisco used three relief pitchers yesterday. This
24:06
Speaker 2: will also be the Marcelo Meyer battle kind of. But Meyer,
24:10
Speaker 2: I guess it's not playing in this series. Red Sox
24:12
Speaker 2: traded him to the Giants for Eric Miller. Miller will
24:16
Speaker 2: certainly be pitching in this series at some point unless
24:19
Speaker 2: he gets hurt anyway. Red Sox are the number one
24:22
Speaker 2: bullpen still, although they have injuries here Whitlock one of
24:25
Speaker 2: their best relief pitchers. They're set up, man, he's not back.
24:28
Speaker 2: Slaton is hurt right now as well. The Red Sox
24:31
Speaker 2: bullpen is struggling right now without some of these guys here, man, Like,
24:34
Speaker 2: they can't get it together, so that's not good. They're
24:37
Speaker 2: still better than the Giants, though the Giants twenty fourth
24:41
Speaker 2: not really having a good season. In the bullpen department.
24:44
Speaker 2: Red Sox are up to eighth offensively, tied with Miami.
24:47
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to continue or not,
24:49
Speaker 2: but their offense has come alive over the past month
24:52
Speaker 2: or so after it was miserable at the beginning of
24:54
Speaker 2: the season. And a lot of it is team chemistry, man,
24:58
Speaker 2: because they still don't have a really stacked life line
25:00
Speaker 2: up here. They have a few guys in the lineup
25:01
Speaker 2: that are good, like Wilson Contreras and whatever, but he
25:04
Speaker 2: can't run the bases right now because he's got that
25:07
Speaker 2: injury that he's dealing with or whatever, and the home
25:10
Speaker 2: crowd is booing him. I'm like, fuck you, dude, Like
25:13
Speaker 2: he's still going out there and getting hits for you,
25:16
Speaker 2: so whatever. He's not really known for his base running
25:20
Speaker 2: prowess anyway. San Francisco pretty weak offense. They're twenty first.
25:24
Speaker 2: Like I said, I thought they were gonna plummet back down,
25:27
Speaker 2: although the Red Sox do play in a more hit
25:29
Speaker 2: or friendly ballpark. Logan Webb is pitching for San Francisco.
25:33
Speaker 2: He's their best starter. He apparently had a back slash
25:37
Speaker 2: shoulder issue in the last game, but it looked like
25:40
Speaker 2: he pitched like a full start in that one. It
25:41
Speaker 2: was against Colorado. I don't know he pitched well in
25:44
Speaker 2: that one and then got taken out. I guess I
25:46
Speaker 2: didn't even know that he did, because it looked like
25:48
Speaker 2: he went his full workload there. Webb has had a
25:52
Speaker 2: good season three point five y RA one point six whip.
25:55
Speaker 2: He's usually not quite as good on the road, and
25:58
Speaker 2: his ERA is a little bit higher on the road
26:00
Speaker 2: this year, three point six. But he's not that bad
26:02
Speaker 2: on the road obviously, So I guess you could tell
26:04
Speaker 2: that he got pulled early in that Colorado game, even
26:07
Speaker 2: though it was a six inning performance. Web a lot
26:09
Speaker 2: of times goes deeper than that into these games. And
26:12
Speaker 2: he only threw eighty pitches, so that is that's a
26:15
Speaker 2: low pitch count for him. They usually let him go
26:18
Speaker 2: up to about one hundred and then they take him out.
26:20
Speaker 2: He goes out there and throws a lot of pitches,
26:23
Speaker 2: man like, they just let him do it. That this
26:24
Speaker 2: is just what he does. He's just used to it.
26:26
Speaker 2: Web has been in good form recently. He's allowed no
26:29
Speaker 2: more than one and run in Navis starts this month
26:32
Speaker 2: with a seventeen to two strikeout walk ratio. His last
26:35
Speaker 2: start in July was also good. Yeah, he's in good
26:39
Speaker 2: form right now. He's got a low hit rate on
26:40
Speaker 2: the season, low walk rate on the season, strikeout rate
26:43
Speaker 2: is not high. He gets a lot of ground ball
26:46
Speaker 2: outs though, and his strikeout walk ratio is still not
26:48
Speaker 2: too bad because he walks very few people. His strikeout
26:52
Speaker 2: for nine, though, is the lowest that it's been in
26:54
Speaker 2: his career, so he doesn't really have strikeout stuff right now.
26:58
Speaker 2: A little bit weird because he's not really at this point,
27:00
Speaker 2: so I don't know what the deal is with that.
27:03
Speaker 2: The Red Sox have actually been able to hit him though,
27:05
Speaker 2: in thirty four at bats three twenty four average eight
27:08
Speaker 2: thirty two ohps, eight to two strikeout walk ratio. A
27:13
Speaker 2: few guys in the lineup here that have seen him
27:15
Speaker 2: have hit him pretty well, so, including some of the
27:19
Speaker 2: left handers the Red Sox have. So the Red Sox
27:21
Speaker 2: actually do hit him pretty well. Sonny Gray is pitching
27:24
Speaker 2: for the Red Sox. Really really good season for Gray,
27:28
Speaker 2: better than I thought it would be. Like Gray is
27:30
Speaker 2: a guy that he's up there in age, so it
27:32
Speaker 2: seems like he kind of gets over work to most
27:35
Speaker 2: seasons and then kind of fades at the end of
27:38
Speaker 2: the season. Maybe the Red Sox have managed him a
27:40
Speaker 2: little bit better. I'm not sure, but this has been
27:42
Speaker 2: one of his better seasons. Even though he's thirty six,
27:45
Speaker 2: two point six five ERA, one point one five whip.
27:48
Speaker 2: He's been good at home two point four to five
27:50
Speaker 2: Homie Race, so he's better at home. Just threw a
27:53
Speaker 2: seven inning shutout in Pittsburgh. Really good start there against
27:57
Speaker 2: an offense that is pretty intimidating in their home stadium,
28:01
Speaker 2: and he got through that pretty much with ease. He's
28:04
Speaker 2: been really good this month. He has a point nine
28:07
Speaker 2: to five ERA, nineteen to four strike out walk ratio.
28:10
Speaker 2: He's allowed zero runs in two of the three starts.
28:13
Speaker 2: The only start where he allowed runs was against Toronto. Yeah,
28:17
Speaker 2: I mean Toronto not a good offense. So that's why
28:21
Speaker 2: I'm laughing, because he shut out the White Sox and Pittsburgh.
28:25
Speaker 2: That White Sox. When was the last time he was
28:26
Speaker 2: at home. He's actually had a lot of starts on
28:28
Speaker 2: the road recently. Gray low hit rate here, low walk rate.
28:33
Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's not really that high, but he doesn't
28:36
Speaker 2: put a lot of guys on base at all. His
28:38
Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is not too bad here, although it's
28:41
Speaker 2: gone down from what it was when he was with st.
28:43
Speaker 2: When he was with Saint Louis, it went way up
28:46
Speaker 2: for some reason. It's gone kind of back towards his
28:49
Speaker 2: career average here this year, but that's still not that bad.
28:53
Speaker 2: His strike up for nine is down. I don't know
28:55
Speaker 2: how he was striking out that many guys with Saint Louis,
28:58
Speaker 2: but you could tell, like because he kind of took
29:01
Speaker 2: a nose dive at the end of the season. It
29:02
Speaker 2: does seem like Saint Louis was overworking him, and it
29:05
Speaker 2: looks like maybe he's pitching a little bit differently this
29:08
Speaker 2: year to sort of maintain his health a little bit more.
29:12
Speaker 2: Let's say maybe that's a good thing. I don't know.
29:15
Speaker 2: Man against the Giants, his numbers or I wouldn't say
29:20
Speaker 2: they're great low average two twenty seven. Batting average with
29:23
Speaker 2: the Ops is high eight oh two. This is in
29:26
Speaker 2: sixty six at bats, sixteen strikeouts, fourteen walks. Though I
29:31
Speaker 2: don't know what the deals with the walks, but it
29:32
Speaker 2: looks like it's because he's pitching around a Damas who
29:35
Speaker 2: has eight of those walks. A Damas has hit him well,
29:38
Speaker 2: like nobody else in this lineup has really hit him
29:40
Speaker 2: that well, except Devers has been okay against him. Other
29:43
Speaker 2: than that, not really a whole lot going on there.
29:46
Speaker 2: But it's those are their two best hitters San Francisco.
29:48
Speaker 2: So whatever the money's coming in on the under in
29:53
Speaker 2: this game, I don't think I would do it. I mean,
29:55
Speaker 2: these two pitchers don't have good matchup numbers here against
29:58
Speaker 2: these opposing offenses, and you're getting no leeway with the total.
30:01
Speaker 2: Really it's it's seven and a half juice to the under.
30:04
Speaker 2: So it's teetering on seven fifty to fifty on the tickets,
30:08
Speaker 2: fifty two percent of the cash on the under. It
30:10
Speaker 2: looks like it would be an under on the surface,
30:13
Speaker 2: but when you dig into those numbers a little bit,
30:15
Speaker 2: I don't want to do it. I mean, I don't
30:17
Speaker 2: necessarily disagree with the under. I mean it definitely could
30:20
Speaker 2: be a good pitching for the starters here in this game,
30:24
Speaker 2: at least. I mean, I guess maybe if you're really
30:26
Speaker 2: worried about San Francisco's bullpen, you can make it a
30:28
Speaker 2: first five. But I'm not gonna risk it. But maybe
30:31
Speaker 2: the under is still the better way to play this game.
30:34
Speaker 2: The money is indicating sort of on San Francisco, but
30:37
Speaker 2: I don't think I really agree that one would really
30:40
Speaker 2: be about the price though the Red Sox around minus
30:42
Speaker 2: one seventy. That is a heavy price, like getting Logan
30:46
Speaker 2: Web is an underdog, Like that does seem kind of tempting, right,
30:50
Speaker 2: because if you think this is gonna be a pitching
30:51
Speaker 2: duel and you're getting San Francisco is a big underdog,
30:56
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, if you're gonna play San Francisco
30:57
Speaker 2: at all, though, I would say do it in the
30:59
Speaker 2: first five because they will not have a bullpen edge.
31:01
Speaker 2: I wouldn't think ninety one percent of tickets eighty eight
31:04
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Red Sox here. But
31:06
Speaker 2: the Red Sox are rested. Remember they do have the
31:08
Speaker 2: rest edge here and the travel edge and their starting
31:12
Speaker 2: pitcher as, the better matchup numbers here, and the better
31:14
Speaker 2: home road splits. So there are more indicators towards the
31:17
Speaker 2: Red Sox than towards the Giants here, and plus the
31:20
Speaker 2: motivation I think is there as well. But the Red Sox, yeah,
31:23
Speaker 2: they're a very public side and they're way too heavily priced,
31:26
Speaker 2: so I don't think you could do it, Like, if
31:28
Speaker 2: you're gonna do it, you would have to lay minus
31:30
Speaker 2: one or something with the Red Sox, like make up
31:32
Speaker 2: minus one run line. I wouldn't want to do that.
31:34
Speaker 2: The Red Sox still aren't really as good offensively at home,
31:38
Speaker 2: and they're still below five hundred at home. By the way,
31:40
Speaker 2: as soon as they got to five hundred at home,
31:43
Speaker 2: they lost again, and now they're below five hundred at
31:45
Speaker 2: home again. But I will say that since the All
31:48
Speaker 2: Star break, the Red Sox are obviously above five hundred
31:51
Speaker 2: at home, but a lot of the damage they've done
31:53
Speaker 2: has come on the road, so the Red Sox are
31:54
Speaker 2: actually still a better road team than home team. All Right,
31:58
Speaker 2: Washington and Miami, this is an ugly pitching matchup in
32:01
Speaker 2: this one. Miami, I believe. Yeah, Miami didn't play yesterday,
32:05
Speaker 2: but they're returning home from a road trip. So Miami
32:07
Speaker 2: does have a rest advantage here because Washington played yesterday,
32:10
Speaker 2: but the road trip return is a negative. So it's
32:13
Speaker 2: one of those spots where you have the team returning
32:15
Speaker 2: home from a road trip bad spot, but they also
32:18
Speaker 2: have a rest advantage. So it's like, what do you
32:19
Speaker 2: do with that? That means both teams kind of have
32:22
Speaker 2: a negative going on there. Miami returned from Cincinnati and Philly,
32:28
Speaker 2: and they got swept in Philly. But you know, I
32:30
Speaker 2: talk about him. A team returns home from the road
32:31
Speaker 2: a lot of times, they won't be up for that game.
32:34
Speaker 2: Washington is behind Miami and the standings of the Miami
32:37
Speaker 2: I think, is I guess still trying to fight for
32:39
Speaker 2: a wildcard spot here. Washington, I think at this point
32:42
Speaker 2: is kind of resigned themselves to knowing they're not going
32:45
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. But Washington might get up for
32:48
Speaker 2: this game against Miami, you know, and it might be
32:50
Speaker 2: a more distracted spot from Miami. Washington maybe has a
32:53
Speaker 2: chance to play spoiler here Miami in the return home spot.
32:56
Speaker 2: It is a negative, but I don't really want Washington
32:59
Speaker 2: either because they played yesterday. But that's also not the
33:03
Speaker 2: only concern with them. The pitching set up for them
33:06
Speaker 2: is concerning. Washington used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're not
33:10
Speaker 2: a good bullpen. Miami's ranked eighth in bullpen, although I
33:13
Speaker 2: don't think they're that good, but they're a better bullpen
33:16
Speaker 2: than Washington. Washington twenty sixth plus having less rest Washington's
33:21
Speaker 2: definitely at a bullpend disadvantage here. Washington is still the
33:24
Speaker 2: better offense. They're number two. Miami tied in eighth with
33:28
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. As I mentioned, this is gonna be
33:31
Speaker 2: a bullpen game for Washington. Our friend Brad Lord is
33:35
Speaker 2: pitching in this game for the Nationals. He'll be the opener.
33:38
Speaker 2: He'll probably go somewhere in the vicinity of two winnings here.
33:42
Speaker 2: I don't think he's a great pitcher, but he's He
33:45
Speaker 2: does okay somewhat for the most part when they have
33:48
Speaker 2: him go out there. Though actually recently he hasn't really
33:51
Speaker 2: been that good. I mean, his last outing was terrible
33:53
Speaker 2: against the Mets. He walked four guys and only got
33:56
Speaker 2: two guys out and allowed a hit in two runs. Yeah,
33:59
Speaker 2: that's not good. So I don't know, man, I don't
34:01
Speaker 2: think we need to really go into Lord that much
34:03
Speaker 2: because he's not gonna be out there for that long.
34:05
Speaker 2: But I think it's a negative for Washington. I don't
34:09
Speaker 2: like their pitching setup, and you're gonna get their bullpen
34:11
Speaker 2: for about seven innings here. Probably that doesn't look good
34:15
Speaker 2: to me, or at least six innings. I guess, yeah,
34:18
Speaker 2: that bad of a bullpen. You don't want to back that.
34:21
Speaker 2: But on the Miami side, it's also not good. Ryan
34:23
Speaker 2: Gusto is getting the start for them. Sometimes they put
34:26
Speaker 2: an opener in front of him to I would say,
34:29
Speaker 2: if you're gonna play this game, by the way, I
34:30
Speaker 2: would say, just play at action. Don't pick either starter
34:33
Speaker 2: or because probably I mean, you basically know what's happening.
34:37
Speaker 2: Lord probably is opening, but it's not totally guaranteed. But
34:39
Speaker 2: you know you're getting a bullpen game on the Washington side,
34:42
Speaker 2: and you know you're getting like a pseudo bullpen game
34:44
Speaker 2: from Miami here with possibly an opener in front of Gusto.
34:49
Speaker 2: Possibly Gusto just opens the game or starts the game,
34:52
Speaker 2: I should say, and he'll probably be out there for
34:54
Speaker 2: like four plus innings. But he's not good. Gusto is
34:58
Speaker 2: a four point seventy R one point three two whip
35:01
Speaker 2: not great. He is better at home, a bit four
35:04
Speaker 2: point five six homey ra It is a more pitcher
35:06
Speaker 2: friendly ballpark here. He's not really pitching deep into games
35:10
Speaker 2: here though, athough he has a fifteen to one strike
35:12
Speaker 2: out walk ratio this month, so give him credit for that.
35:15
Speaker 2: In fourteen to two thirds innings. Good command numbers here,
35:19
Speaker 2: so he's actually pitching a little bit better this month,
35:22
Speaker 2: so I will admit that. But his hit rate is
35:25
Speaker 2: still high on the season, doesn't really walk that many guys.
35:28
Speaker 2: His strike up rate is okay, but he is usually
35:30
Speaker 2: too hittable and that is his problem. His strikeout walk
35:33
Speaker 2: ratio is actually pretty good this year though, and his
35:37
Speaker 2: strike up for nine is a too bad either. Like
35:39
Speaker 2: I said, so maybe he's not as bad as I
35:41
Speaker 2: think he is, but I still don't think he's that good.
35:44
Speaker 2: And against a powerful lineup like Washington, maybe a little
35:48
Speaker 2: bit of an issue. They only have twelve at bats
35:50
Speaker 2: against him, though they have five hitters have faced him
35:52
Speaker 2: three point thirty three average seven eighteen ops isn't really
35:55
Speaker 2: as high as you would think. No extra base hits
35:58
Speaker 2: off him. That's why three strikeouts, one walk. I still
36:02
Speaker 2: think the over is probably the way to look at
36:04
Speaker 2: this game. Although I know it's a more hit or
36:06
Speaker 2: it's more excuse me, it's a more pitcher friendly park
36:09
Speaker 2: in Miami, but it's just bad pitching, dude. I mean
36:13
Speaker 2: it's just as simple as that. Like as soon as
36:14
Speaker 2: I saw that matchup, I was like, probably an over
36:18
Speaker 2: I don't actually want to do it, and a lot
36:20
Speaker 2: of times they get caught trying to fade these Washington
36:22
Speaker 2: bullpend games and they turn out better than expected. I
36:25
Speaker 2: don't know if you could fully trust Miami's offense. Washington's
36:28
Speaker 2: offense is taking a little bit of a dip since
36:30
Speaker 2: the trade deadline totals at eight. It's it's a reasonable total,
36:35
Speaker 2: and the money is indicating sort of on the over here,
36:37
Speaker 2: seventy nine percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
36:40
Speaker 2: on the over If I was gonna play this game,
36:42
Speaker 2: that is what I would do. I would play the over.
36:44
Speaker 2: Miami's getting some of the money fifty nine percent of
36:47
Speaker 2: tickets and sixty nine percent of the cash on them.
36:49
Speaker 2: They're about minus one forty five here. It's interesting that
36:54
Speaker 2: Miami is a favorite by that much against Washington. Some
36:57
Speaker 2: of it has to do with the pitching set up here, though,
37:00
Speaker 2: but Washington's been the better team on the seasons. Just
37:03
Speaker 2: kind of weird to see them as an underdog like that.
37:04
Speaker 2: Plus it's a return home spot for Miami. Like I said, so,
37:10
Speaker 2: it is a fade spot for Miami. But the one
37:12
Speaker 2: thing they do have going for them is well two things.
37:15
Speaker 2: I guess they have an actual starter sort of on
37:18
Speaker 2: the mound Miami does, and they have a rest advantage.
37:21
Speaker 2: But whatever I think over is the better way to
37:23
Speaker 2: play it. But you know, when teams are turned on
37:27
Speaker 2: from the road and they have a rest advantage, though,
37:30
Speaker 2: a lot of times that hurts the offense because the
37:32
Speaker 2: offense can cool off a little bit and the timing
37:35
Speaker 2: can be off and maybe distracted a bit. So I
37:37
Speaker 2: will say that, all right, there's an Apple TV, not
37:42
Speaker 2: a doubleheader, but Apple TV has two games on at
37:44
Speaker 2: the same time, and one of them is probably more
37:48
Speaker 2: interesting than the other, which is this AL East matchup
37:51
Speaker 2: between Tampa and Baltimore. That one, this one is probably
37:53
Speaker 2: gonna get more of the views than the other one.
37:57
Speaker 2: I mean, Anaheim is playing in the other one. Do
37:59
Speaker 2: you think anybody's going to want to watch the other one?
38:01
Speaker 2: Anaheim in Texas? Probably not Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Here Baltimore,
38:07
Speaker 2: I mean, they're in last place in the AL East,
38:09
Speaker 2: though they're not eliminated from the wild card yet. That's
38:12
Speaker 2: how bad the AL is. Baltimore's lost four games in
38:16
Speaker 2: a row though, but they're staying at home. They just
38:18
Speaker 2: got swept by the Yankees. They're still gonna get up
38:21
Speaker 2: for games against Tampa Bay, you know, because they get
38:24
Speaker 2: to possibly play spoiler or whatever. They get to play
38:27
Speaker 2: against another divisional foe who's ahead of them, So they're
38:30
Speaker 2: not gonna just throw throw out these games. I wouldn't
38:33
Speaker 2: imagine Tampa Bay has not been playing well recently, though,
38:37
Speaker 2: Neither team is coming into this game playing that well.
38:39
Speaker 2: Tampa's lost five of seven. They just lost the series
38:42
Speaker 2: to the Blue Jays, and the only game they won
38:44
Speaker 2: they barely won. So, like I said, that Blue Jays
38:47
Speaker 2: did play well in that series. Now, Tampa Bay is
38:50
Speaker 2: starting a road trip here, which usually is a decent
38:53
Speaker 2: focused spot, especially if you're not playing well at home.
38:56
Speaker 2: One of the better things you could do is just
38:57
Speaker 2: forget about that go on the road. So it's not
38:59
Speaker 2: a horrible spot for Tampa here. We have the same
39:02
Speaker 2: pitching matchup in this game that we had in the
39:05
Speaker 2: previous series between these two teams, and I played Tampa
39:09
Speaker 2: in that one. I'm pretty sure I gave ut Tampa
39:10
Speaker 2: as a play on the show and it did not
39:12
Speaker 2: work out well. In this same pitching matchup, I'm not
39:16
Speaker 2: gonna do it again. Here. I'm not gonna try to
39:17
Speaker 2: do it again, but you know, I might still lean
39:21
Speaker 2: that way. Though Tampa Bay used two relief pitchers yesterday,
39:25
Speaker 2: Baltimore used two as well. Tampa Bay is ranked higher
39:29
Speaker 2: in the bullpen at fourth, Baltimore is twelfth of the
39:33
Speaker 2: Baltimore's era is slightly better. Kind of tough to gauge, man,
39:38
Speaker 2: I guess maybe Tampa is a little bit better. I
39:39
Speaker 2: don't think either bullpen is that good, though, I think
39:41
Speaker 2: they're both kind of mediocre bullpens. It's close between the
39:45
Speaker 2: two bullpens. Tampa is the better offense. Their ranked six,
39:50
Speaker 2: Baltimore seventeenth, So Tampa does have an offensive edge here
39:53
Speaker 2: by a bit. Freddie Peralta pitching for Tampa Bay. They
39:56
Speaker 2: picked them up the trade deadline. I still can't figure
39:59
Speaker 2: the out man, Like, why all of a sudden he's
40:03
Speaker 2: just having a like I mean, I thought that it
40:04
Speaker 2: was because he was on the Mets for this for
40:07
Speaker 2: this season, and the Mets just we're uninspiringly bad. That's
40:11
Speaker 2: why I thought Parolta was pitching badly, because he's had
40:13
Speaker 2: a really good career with Milwaukee and this year his
40:16
Speaker 2: numbers are bad. Five point two seventy RA one point
40:20
Speaker 2: four to eight whip Like, we're talking about way worse
40:22
Speaker 2: than what he's done throughout his career. And he's not old,
40:24
Speaker 2: he's thirty, So what the hell is going on with him?
40:27
Speaker 2: I was like, well, maybe he just isn't motivated pitching
40:30
Speaker 2: for the Mets. Okay, so now he's on Tampa and
40:33
Speaker 2: by the way, a bad indicator for Paralta last time
40:36
Speaker 2: I backed him at home. He's been a better home
40:38
Speaker 2: pitcher this year, but on the road six point eighty
40:41
Speaker 2: three ERA with an above three hundred opponent of batting average,
40:45
Speaker 2: that's pretty bad. So yeah, I wouldn't want to back
40:48
Speaker 2: him on the road here. I thought a change of
40:50
Speaker 2: scenery would help him. Switching over to pitching for Tampa Bay,
40:55
Speaker 2: pitching for a contender, it hasn't really helped him much.
40:58
Speaker 2: His strikeout rates kind of with them. It's walk grates
41:01
Speaker 2: kind of high, ten to five strikeout walk region, fourteen
41:04
Speaker 2: to a third, sixteen hits allowed, twelve runs allowed. This
41:07
Speaker 2: is bad, dude. Although the worst that he was was
41:10
Speaker 2: at Colorado, it was cors Field, maybe a given a
41:13
Speaker 2: pass for that. He pitched fairly well against the A's
41:16
Speaker 2: in the A's stadium, so I thought that was a
41:18
Speaker 2: good sign. I thought that maybe it was just an
41:20
Speaker 2: adjustment thing, and okay, now he's pitching better, and that
41:23
Speaker 2: was in another hitter friendly ballpark. But he had a
41:26
Speaker 2: bit of a setback last time against Baltimore. He only
41:28
Speaker 2: allowed two runs though, so it looked bad because we
41:31
Speaker 2: took a loss on that on the show and it
41:32
Speaker 2: was a ten to two loss, But it wasn't really
41:35
Speaker 2: Peralta that did that. Like Tampa Bay's bullpen did not
41:38
Speaker 2: help the cause at all in that game. So Peralta
41:42
Speaker 2: was mediocre in the game, and you know, it wasn't
41:45
Speaker 2: entirely his fault. Now Paralta, it is still the case
41:48
Speaker 2: that he's good against Baltimore, which was part of the
41:50
Speaker 2: reason why I liked Peralta in that last game, even
41:53
Speaker 2: though he was very mediocre in that start. They have
41:56
Speaker 2: fifty three at bats against him and they still only
41:58
Speaker 2: have a one seventy average against him. Five ninety six
42:01
Speaker 2: oh ps seventeen to eight strike out walk race yer
42:03
Speaker 2: not the best ratio there, but Peralta he does have
42:07
Speaker 2: some walk issues throughout his career, but this year his
42:10
Speaker 2: numbers have just all been worse like this year is
42:13
Speaker 2: a strike out for nine and strike out walk raceier,
42:15
Speaker 2: both lower. So I don't know what's going on with him, man. Yeah,
42:20
Speaker 2: Like you can see, his numbers have been much better
42:22
Speaker 2: throughout his career, and I think his walks have gotten
42:24
Speaker 2: worse this year as well, like I said, which usually
42:27
Speaker 2: that's his only issue, is that he's a little bit wild.
42:30
Speaker 2: I don't know, but he is good against Baltimore, so
42:32
Speaker 2: I he might still be backable in this game, even
42:36
Speaker 2: though he's bad on the road this year. Trevor Rodgers
42:38
Speaker 2: is pitching for Baltimore, though he's had the better overall
42:41
Speaker 2: season four point one to five YRA, one point two
42:44
Speaker 2: to five WHIP. He found new life with Baltimore last
42:47
Speaker 2: year and had a good season last year. He's a
42:50
Speaker 2: little bit worse at home though this year four point
42:52
Speaker 2: three to one homye RA. But he's in really good
42:55
Speaker 2: form right now, Like he's in way better form than Peralto.
42:58
Speaker 2: There's no way around that. Rogers has only allowed more
43:02
Speaker 2: than two runs in one start going all the way
43:04
Speaker 2: back to early June, and in that one he allowed three,
43:10
Speaker 2: So he's only allowed more than two and runs twice
43:12
Speaker 2: since the beginning of June and no more than four
43:16
Speaker 2: in any of them. His strike out walk ratio has
43:18
Speaker 2: been really good recently, nineteen to three this month. So yeah,
43:21
Speaker 2: he's pitching well right now. His hit rate is higher
43:24
Speaker 2: than you would think. It's mediocre kind of he doesn't
43:26
Speaker 2: really walk many guys though. In His strike out rate
43:28
Speaker 2: is a little bit low though as well, so kind
43:32
Speaker 2: of mediocre numbers from him really strike up walk ratios alright,
43:37
Speaker 2: strike up for nine? What are we looking at? Yeah?
43:39
Speaker 2: Is alright, So I don't think he's quite as good
43:42
Speaker 2: as maybe he looks, but he is in good for
43:44
Speaker 2: him right now. However, the other reason that I faded
43:47
Speaker 2: him in that last game and took Tampa was that
43:51
Speaker 2: Rogers is not good against Tampa. They have sixty five
43:53
Speaker 2: at bats against him, three point thirty eight average, nine
43:56
Speaker 2: oh nine ops, ten to five strike out walk ratio,
43:59
Speaker 2: So he's against Tampa. Although in that last start he
44:02
Speaker 2: was good against them. He went six innings a lot
44:04
Speaker 2: of two runs, so he did outpitch Paralta on that one.
44:08
Speaker 2: So this is gonna be a stay away from me.
44:10
Speaker 2: But I still think I'm gonna lean Tampa here. The
44:13
Speaker 2: money's all coming in on Baltimore. So the market is
44:16
Speaker 2: very much disagreeing with that. Fifty five percent of the
44:19
Speaker 2: tickets on Tampa, seventy three percent of the cash on Baltimore.
44:22
Speaker 2: Baltimore's it might's won twenty something here, you know. I mean,
44:26
Speaker 2: I think some of it is kind of a market
44:28
Speaker 2: read type of thing, like the public's coming in on
44:32
Speaker 2: Tampa because they're like, oh, Tampa is the team with
44:34
Speaker 2: the way better record, like it's first place versus last place, right,
44:37
Speaker 2: so it looks way too easy to take the first
44:39
Speaker 2: place team as an underdog against the last place team.
44:42
Speaker 2: And people kind of know the name Peralta, I guess whatever,
44:45
Speaker 2: So it does look way too easy to take Tampa,
44:47
Speaker 2: and that does worry me in this game. But the
44:50
Speaker 2: pitching matchup iything does actually favor Tampa here. I mean,
44:54
Speaker 2: I guess maybe you could you could argue going first
44:56
Speaker 2: five with them as well, because the bullpens are just
44:58
Speaker 2: kind of a miss really to me in this game
45:01
Speaker 2: as far as not being able to figure out which
45:03
Speaker 2: one is better than the other. The totals at eight
45:06
Speaker 2: and the money is actually coming in on the under
45:08
Speaker 2: for whatever that's worth, So the under money does seem
45:11
Speaker 2: to think that both pitchers are actually gonna do okay here.
45:14
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, It's a game I don't want
45:16
Speaker 2: to deal with, though, I don't really want to back
45:17
Speaker 2: Parolta on the road. You know, he has significant home
45:22
Speaker 2: roads splits Rogers doesn't really they're negative for Paralta here.
45:26
Speaker 2: So all right, Mets and the White Sox. The White
45:29
Speaker 2: Sox had to play yesterday in that makeup game, so
45:32
Speaker 2: I believe the Mets didn't play yesterday, right, Yeah, So
45:36
Speaker 2: the Mets have a rest advantage here. The Mets are
45:40
Speaker 2: coming in from playing San Diego and they're starting a
45:42
Speaker 2: road trip here, and they're playing well right now. They've
45:45
Speaker 2: won five of their last six games. So the Mets
45:47
Speaker 2: starting a road trip with a day off with momentum.
45:50
Speaker 2: I think that's a positive spot for the Mets starting
45:53
Speaker 2: a road trip. So I think the situation does favor
45:55
Speaker 2: the Mets. They got the bullpen rest edge here, probably
45:59
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen as well. The White Sox, though,
46:03
Speaker 2: I wouldn't necessarily want to fade them because they're coming
46:07
Speaker 2: off a game where they got shut out at home
46:09
Speaker 2: and we won. That was the only play I gave
46:11
Speaker 2: out on the show. Yes today. The Braves White Sox
46:14
Speaker 2: I thought were kind of in a negative spot after
46:16
Speaker 2: playing huge series against Detroit and against the Cobs, but
46:21
Speaker 2: now coming off a game where you get shut out
46:24
Speaker 2: at home. A lot of times in baseball, it is
46:26
Speaker 2: typically a positive spot to play on a team after
46:29
Speaker 2: they get shut out at home. So the White Sox
46:31
Speaker 2: might bounce back from that here. And they're staying in
46:34
Speaker 2: Chicago here, so you don't have to worry about them
46:36
Speaker 2: playing three different series in three days here because all
46:40
Speaker 2: of the games are in Chicago, so they're staying in
46:42
Speaker 2: the same city. So that helps the White Sox kind
46:45
Speaker 2: of mitigate that a bit. So you know, it's a
46:47
Speaker 2: worse spot for Atlanta having to travel to an actual
46:50
Speaker 2: different city here. But anyway, what was I gonna say, Oh, yeah,
46:56
Speaker 2: I Mets in Chicago here, right, the White Sox did
46:59
Speaker 2: you some relief pitchers yesterday? They used three while the
47:02
Speaker 2: Mets were off, So the Mets definitely have a bullpen edge.
47:05
Speaker 2: The Mets have a decent bullpen. They rank sixth. I mean,
47:07
Speaker 2: the White Socks, I would say their bullpen's decent, and
47:09
Speaker 2: the Mets bullpen is actually good. White Sox even though
47:13
Speaker 2: the Mets traded some guys away. White Sox fifteenth in bullpens,
47:18
Speaker 2: so they're not bad, but the Mets have the better
47:19
Speaker 2: one and the rest that year. White Sox definitely have
47:22
Speaker 2: the better offense. They're ranked twelveth. The Mets are twenty
47:25
Speaker 2: fifth high with the Reds, although the Mets have been
47:27
Speaker 2: better recently. Mets have Sean Manaiah pitching, and this is interesting.
47:33
Speaker 2: I think he will start because he's been starting recently.
47:35
Speaker 2: They're just they've pretty much made him a staple of
47:38
Speaker 2: the starting rotation now, you know, like I believe, although
47:42
Speaker 2: if you're still worried about that, you could if you're
47:45
Speaker 2: gonna play this game, you could pick Burke must start
47:47
Speaker 2: for the White Sox and not pick a starter for
47:49
Speaker 2: the Mets, if you're still worried about that. But it's
47:51
Speaker 2: probably gonna be Mania, and at worse, they're gonna put
47:55
Speaker 2: an open in front of him. But Manaiah is actually
47:57
Speaker 2: pitching fairly well recently. The Mets have won is last
48:00
Speaker 2: four starts. He's allowed more than two hour runs only
48:02
Speaker 2: one time over that span, last time out against Washington,
48:05
Speaker 2: and they still won the game. He went fairly deep
48:08
Speaker 2: into the game and had a lot of strikeouts. His
48:10
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio not too bad over this recent
48:13
Speaker 2: run here twenty nine to nine. It is a few
48:16
Speaker 2: too many walks. Manaya is kind of known for doing that,
48:19
Speaker 2: walking too many guys. But you know, he looks like
48:22
Speaker 2: he's pitching pretty well right now, and it might be
48:25
Speaker 2: more the old Manaiah's coming back here where it seemed
48:29
Speaker 2: like throughout a lot of this season Mania had become
48:31
Speaker 2: too hittable, but he wasn't walking as many guys he
48:33
Speaker 2: usually does. Now it seems like he's walking guys again,
48:36
Speaker 2: but he's become less hittable again, So I don't know,
48:39
Speaker 2: he's trying to find that balance possibly. But his hit
48:44
Speaker 2: rate on the season is not great. It's just below
48:47
Speaker 2: one per inning. His walk rate is lower than he
48:49
Speaker 2: usually get out of him, and his strike out rate
48:51
Speaker 2: is actually pretty high. It's above one per inning, So
48:53
Speaker 2: that's good Manaiah. Yeah that His strike out walk ratio
48:57
Speaker 2: is not too bad here. It's kind of around what
49:02
Speaker 2: he's been doing the recent years. Last year it was
49:04
Speaker 2: way higher, but it was a small sample size. Strake
49:07
Speaker 2: up for nine still pretty good here, Like I said, yeah,
49:10
Speaker 2: I mean, Manaia, I think he might be backable here man,
49:13
Speaker 2: and he is actually a little bit better on the road,
49:16
Speaker 2: believe it or not, four point seven roadra His numbers
49:20
Speaker 2: against who are we talking about? I already forget White Sox, right, yeah,
49:24
Speaker 2: the White Sox, Manaia, He's been decent against them, although
49:28
Speaker 2: they only have five hitters who have faced him. But
49:30
Speaker 2: it is fifty one at bats here two sixteen average allowed,
49:34
Speaker 2: six to seventy eight ops. The only number in here
49:36
Speaker 2: that's kind of bad is the walks, as you could guess,
49:39
Speaker 2: ten strikeouts, five walks. Greed Chuck is like the only
49:43
Speaker 2: guy that really does like a considerable amount of damage
49:46
Speaker 2: against I guess Ben and Endy does pretty well as well,
49:49
Speaker 2: but greed Chuck's the guy that really hits him for
49:51
Speaker 2: power here. But to me, yeah, you're looking at Manaya
49:55
Speaker 2: does have pretty good numbers here against the White Sox,
49:57
Speaker 2: so I think he may be backable here. On Burke
50:00
Speaker 2: is the better of the Shawn's this year pitching for
50:03
Speaker 2: the White Sox. But for Burke, you gotta worry a
50:06
Speaker 2: little bit about his innings count here. He went one
50:08
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty four and a third last year. He's
50:10
Speaker 2: up to one hundred and forty this year, and this
50:12
Speaker 2: has been his best season so far. And he's still young,
50:15
Speaker 2: and you know, his innings pitch is going up. You know,
50:19
Speaker 2: it might be a little bit of an issue for
50:22
Speaker 2: him in the coming starts. You know, like once you
50:24
Speaker 2: get up to that number where you haven't done it
50:27
Speaker 2: before and it becomes unfamiliar territory, Like a young guy
50:30
Speaker 2: like this might wear out a little bit because he's
50:32
Speaker 2: not used to it. I don't know if it's gonna
50:34
Speaker 2: happen yet, because Burke has been good a three point
50:36
Speaker 2: one five ERA, one point one to one whip. He's
50:40
Speaker 2: been basically the same home and away era, a little
50:43
Speaker 2: bit worse at home, opponent batting average a little bit
50:46
Speaker 2: better at home. So not allowed to see there now.
50:48
Speaker 2: Burke wasn't good in his last start though against Detroit.
50:51
Speaker 2: Gave up four runs of four and a third innings,
50:53
Speaker 2: walked three guys. He was a bit all over the
50:55
Speaker 2: place there, and actually two of his last three starts
50:58
Speaker 2: were kind of questionable and he didn't make it five innings,
51:01
Speaker 2: both on the road, though the other one was against
51:03
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. His last home start was very good
51:06
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. Does have a low hit rate on the season.
51:11
Speaker 2: His walk rate is really the only number that isn't
51:13
Speaker 2: that good as the walks, and then the strike out
51:16
Speaker 2: rate is high, but the walk number is still not
51:17
Speaker 2: really that bad. Good strike out walk ratio here, good
51:20
Speaker 2: strike outs per nine. So yeah, Burke is good against
51:25
Speaker 2: the Mets, though small sample here, but it's only eight
51:28
Speaker 2: at bats only four hitters will face him, but they
51:31
Speaker 2: do have a three seventy five average against him in
51:33
Speaker 2: one thousand and sixty nine ops two to one strike
51:36
Speaker 2: out walk ratio. I wouldn't put too much weight into this,
51:39
Speaker 2: but Burke does look like he's starting to struggle a
51:42
Speaker 2: little bit like his recent form isn't that good? Manaia
51:45
Speaker 2: has the better recent form. The Mets have the rest
51:47
Speaker 2: advantage here. I think the Mets have a bullpen edge
51:50
Speaker 2: as well, So I would play the Mets if I
51:53
Speaker 2: was gonna play this game. And you know, maybe a
51:56
Speaker 2: little bit weird that the White White Sox have to
51:58
Speaker 2: play three different teams in three days. The money seems
52:01
Speaker 2: to agree with me. Seventy six percent of ticket sixty
52:04
Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on the White Sox. This
52:07
Speaker 2: almost made the cut for me. Man one of the
52:08
Speaker 2: only issues is that the White Sox, you know, I mean,
52:12
Speaker 2: they're still staying at home and they're coming off an
52:14
Speaker 2: ugly shutout loss at home, so I don't think they're
52:17
Speaker 2: gonna overlook the Mets here for that reason. But minus
52:20
Speaker 2: one forty is the price on the White Sox here.
52:23
Speaker 2: I think you're getting a team with a decent amount
52:25
Speaker 2: of advantages here with the Mets at a pretty decent
52:29
Speaker 2: underdog price, you know, so you'll be able to get
52:31
Speaker 2: the Mets probably plus one twenty something. That's what I
52:34
Speaker 2: would do. I would just play the Mets on the
52:35
Speaker 2: money line in this one, and the money again seems
52:38
Speaker 2: to agree with it. The money's also playing the over
52:41
Speaker 2: seven and a half or eight. I don't really have
52:42
Speaker 2: a great gauge on that. To me, it seems like
52:46
Speaker 2: a little bit more of an under game because Manaia
52:48
Speaker 2: is pitching better recently and isn't really that bad and
52:51
Speaker 2: Burke uh both teams, both pitchers are sort of in
52:54
Speaker 2: the better home road split a little bit, and Burke
52:56
Speaker 2: has been good on the seasons, So it seems more
52:58
Speaker 2: under issue than over ish to me. But I don't know, man,
53:03
Speaker 2: the better way to play this. I'm pretty I would
53:04
Speaker 2: say is the Mets though, like I was saying, take
53:07
Speaker 2: advantage of that rest advantage, and I almost did it
53:10
Speaker 2: like I said. But I guess my other hesitation is
53:11
Speaker 2: just that Burke is generally better than Manaiah, so that
53:15
Speaker 2: worries me slightly. That that shouldn't really keep you off
53:17
Speaker 2: of a game. But they're just a couple of things
53:19
Speaker 2: that give me a little bit of pause there. But yes,
53:21
Speaker 2: I like the Mets there all right.
53:24
Speaker 3: A is in.
53:25
Speaker 2: Houston, Houston, mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
53:34
Speaker 2: Houston is coming off just a disgusting loss yesterday to Anaheim.
53:38
Speaker 2: They just lost this series to Anaheim. Houston's still atop
53:42
Speaker 2: the AL West right now, but you lose eighteen to
53:44
Speaker 2: three to an Anaheim team that can't hit it all.
53:47
Speaker 2: I think it was a Tatsuya Emi going in there.
53:50
Speaker 2: He was pitching in relief there and he got blasted
53:53
Speaker 2: in that game. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't read too
53:56
Speaker 2: much into that. I think, if anything, Houston's gonna want
53:58
Speaker 2: to bounce back after that. That was just a hideous loss.
54:01
Speaker 2: Houston can't keep doing that, so I expected them to
54:04
Speaker 2: be focused here. However, the A's should be focused as well,
54:08
Speaker 2: because they just had a gross four games sweep at
54:11
Speaker 2: the hands of the Royals. Terrible series for the A's
54:14
Speaker 2: although they're not a good team, but coming off of that,
54:17
Speaker 2: they could be in bounced back mode as well, and
54:19
Speaker 2: they get to play a divisional foe and get to
54:21
Speaker 2: potentially play spoiler in this series for Houston. So I
54:24
Speaker 2: think the A's will be motivated here as well. Can
54:28
Speaker 2: they actually do it here? I don't know. I mean,
54:30
Speaker 2: I actually I do think the A's have the better
54:31
Speaker 2: starting pitcher in this game, which sounds weird, but I
54:35
Speaker 2: think that is accurate. Although Gage Jump I thought that
54:38
Speaker 2: was the case with him yesterday and he didn't get
54:39
Speaker 2: the job done. The A's have a terrible bullpen. They
54:43
Speaker 2: used two guys yesterday on the bullpen. Houston also used two.
54:47
Speaker 2: Houston definitely has the better bullpen. The ranked tenth. The
54:51
Speaker 2: A's are twenty ninth, but they have the worst ERA
54:54
Speaker 2: as I would say they're the worst bullpen. The whip
54:57
Speaker 2: isn't that much better than the Royals. A's fifteenth in offense,
55:01
Speaker 2: but Houston's better in that department too. Houston's tenth tied
55:04
Speaker 2: with Minnesota so the A's have disadvantages for sure in
55:08
Speaker 2: this series, except again, I do think the A's have
55:10
Speaker 2: a better starting pitcher going in this specific game, which
55:13
Speaker 2: is JT Ginn, who is actually not that bad. Three
55:17
Speaker 2: point five to three RRA, one point two to two
55:19
Speaker 2: WHIP and considering he has to pitch in that Sacramento
55:22
Speaker 2: stadium half the time, those are pretty good numbers, and
55:26
Speaker 2: he is He's still a little bit better on the road,
55:28
Speaker 2: which makes sense getting him away from that stadium. Three
55:31
Speaker 2: point four to nine. Roady Ray in a very good
55:33
Speaker 2: one to eighty nine opponent batting average on the road,
55:36
Speaker 2: so he's good on the road, and he's a style
55:38
Speaker 2: of pitcher that's actually a little bit better for pitching
55:40
Speaker 2: in the A's stadium. He's not too heavy of a
55:43
Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher really at all, and doesn't allow that
55:47
Speaker 2: many home runs, so that's why he's more successful in
55:49
Speaker 2: a ballpark like that. He's been pitching okay this month,
55:53
Speaker 2: I mean, nothing spectacular, but definitely not terrible. Has a
55:56
Speaker 2: low hit rate on the season. His walk rate is
55:58
Speaker 2: kind of the only concern that number a little bit high.
56:01
Speaker 2: Strike gout rate is a little bit low, so his
56:03
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio is not really that good, and
56:05
Speaker 2: it is lower than it was last year, which was
56:08
Speaker 2: his first like kind of full ish season or close
56:11
Speaker 2: to full season, but it's still not too bad and
56:15
Speaker 2: in ways he's pitching a little bit better this year,
56:17
Speaker 2: but his strike cut rates gone down a bit this
56:19
Speaker 2: year from where it was last year. Still, I think
56:22
Speaker 2: he's not too bad of a pitcher and Houston. Houston
56:26
Speaker 2: has hit him well though, that is one issue if
56:28
Speaker 2: you want to try to back him here thirty eight
56:30
Speaker 2: at bets too eighty nine average, seven to eighty nine ops,
56:33
Speaker 2: ten to three strike out walk ratios. You know it's
56:36
Speaker 2: not the greatest matchup for again potentially in this one,
56:40
Speaker 2: but he is generally not too bad of a pitcher.
56:42
Speaker 2: Hayden was Nesky's pitching for Houston. He's trying to make
56:45
Speaker 2: a comeback after he was injured and he didn't pitch
56:50
Speaker 2: much last year. He's had a decent career though, when
56:52
Speaker 2: he's actually been able to pitch, but a lot of
56:55
Speaker 2: it was out of the bullpen for the Cubs, and
56:57
Speaker 2: then they kind of use him as a starter a bit.
57:00
Speaker 2: Houston was using him as a starter last year and
57:02
Speaker 2: he didn't pitch much because he got hurt. Now he's back,
57:05
Speaker 2: but this year his numbers don't look great. Five point
57:07
Speaker 2: one six ERA, one point three to two WHIP. It's
57:11
Speaker 2: not good, but it kind of indicates the vray maybe
57:15
Speaker 2: should be a little bit lower than it is, so
57:16
Speaker 2: maybe it's a little bit misleading. He struggled at home though,
57:20
Speaker 2: six point three homey RA. That's not good. Struggled last
57:23
Speaker 2: time out here at home against Seattle, which is not
57:26
Speaker 2: a good offense, So that's not a good sign there.
57:29
Speaker 2: But the rest of his numbers don't look too bad here.
57:31
Speaker 2: His hit rate is a little bit too high, but
57:33
Speaker 2: he doesn't really walk that many guys here. His strike
57:35
Speaker 2: out rate is okay, so I don't think he's that bad.
57:39
Speaker 2: He's probably not quite as bad as his ZRA makes
57:41
Speaker 2: him look. If you look at his career numbers, they're
57:45
Speaker 2: a bit better than what he's shown so far this
57:47
Speaker 2: year and this year. It's a small sample size, but
57:49
Speaker 2: he is trying to bounce back from injury that bad
57:53
Speaker 2: Seattle starts skewing his numbers though, and that was I
57:55
Speaker 2: think his worst start. His struggle walk ratio is not great,
57:59
Speaker 2: but it's better throughout his career than it is this year,
58:02
Speaker 2: and same thing goes for his strikeouts for nine against
58:05
Speaker 2: the A's lineup. They don't have much experience against him.
58:08
Speaker 2: They only have two hitters of face that McNeil and
58:11
Speaker 2: Alika Williams, whoever the hell that is. But they're three
58:14
Speaker 2: for three, often with a home run for McNeil. No
58:18
Speaker 2: strikeouts obviously, and also no walks. So wes Nesky has
58:22
Speaker 2: not recorded an out against the A's. But it's such
58:24
Speaker 2: a small sample size, I don't know if it matters
58:27
Speaker 2: too much. Houston looks like they're getting some of the money.
58:30
Speaker 2: I don't really totally agree with that. They dropped for
58:34
Speaker 2: minus one ninety seven all the way down to minus
58:36
Speaker 2: one seventy eight here eighty percent of tickets, ninety one
58:39
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Houston. I think I would
58:42
Speaker 2: lean A's first five and this one still, I think
58:44
Speaker 2: I prefer again over Wesneski, although I know you have
58:47
Speaker 2: a bigger sample size there and his numbers don't look
58:49
Speaker 2: too good against Houston, So I mean, I think the
58:52
Speaker 2: other option here is to play the over. Uh. I
58:55
Speaker 2: would say the totals at eight, I would lean over
58:58
Speaker 2: in the total seventy five percent tickets ninety four percent
59:01
Speaker 2: of the casual on the over. Maybe that is the
59:02
Speaker 2: better way to play it because both pitchers don't have
59:05
Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here. Really yeah, I mean over might
59:09
Speaker 2: be worth considering there. The total is not high at eight,
59:12
Speaker 2: so although you know, when it's not high, I worry
59:15
Speaker 2: a little bit about the over. When it's eight, I
59:17
Speaker 2: don't worry too much about which way I think I
59:20
Speaker 2: when it's eight or eight and a half. I'm relying
59:22
Speaker 2: solely on the handicap pretty much, and not really on
59:25
Speaker 2: trying to read what the oddsmakers are saying, because they're
59:27
Speaker 2: saying it's gonna be a game that's, you know, just
59:30
Speaker 2: an average total game. All right, Detroit and Kansas City.
59:34
Speaker 2: I know I have two plays. I haven't given out
59:37
Speaker 2: either of them yet. I know you have to wait
59:39
Speaker 2: until some of the later games for that. Kansas City
59:44
Speaker 2: is coming off a sweep of the A's and they're
59:46
Speaker 2: staying at home. They've won five games in a row,
59:49
Speaker 2: but those wins were against the Angels in the A's.
59:52
Speaker 2: I mean, those are pathetic teams. Like debatably, the Royals,
59:55
Speaker 2: the A's and the Angels. I think it's no debate
59:57
Speaker 2: those three teams are the worst teams in the America
1:00:00
Speaker 2: in league. So is it really that impressive that Kansas
1:00:03
Speaker 2: City beat those other two really bad teams? Not really.
1:00:06
Speaker 2: They have to step it up to play the Tigers,
1:00:08
Speaker 2: who are an actual team here that has a good
1:00:11
Speaker 2: run deferential. So right away I was looking at this
1:00:13
Speaker 2: and thinking the Tigers might be worth a look here,
1:00:16
Speaker 2: and they have one of their better pitchers on the mound.
1:00:18
Speaker 2: Detroit does. However, Kansas City also does. Detroit's not favored
1:00:23
Speaker 2: by that much. But then that kind of words because
1:00:25
Speaker 2: it looks too easy to play Detroit here. Detroit is
1:00:29
Speaker 2: also they have a rest edge by the way, Kansas
1:00:31
Speaker 2: City is staying at home, but they played yesterday and
1:00:35
Speaker 2: Detroit did not. Detroit's coming in from Pittsburgh with a
1:00:38
Speaker 2: day off, and they've been playing pretty poorly over the
1:00:40
Speaker 2: last couple of series. They've lost five of six. So
1:00:43
Speaker 2: Detroit's got to turn it around here, man. They're still
1:00:46
Speaker 2: fighting to make the playoffs here. So the spot to
1:00:49
Speaker 2: me looks definitely better for Detroit because they have a
1:00:52
Speaker 2: rest advantage. They're gonna have the better bullpend here as well.
1:00:55
Speaker 2: On top of the rest advantage, I think debatably. They
1:00:57
Speaker 2: have the better starter as well and the better team,
1:01:00
Speaker 2: so there are a lot of things that do kind
1:01:02
Speaker 2: of line up on the Detroit side. Here. Kansas City,
1:01:06
Speaker 2: how many relief pitchers did they use? They used a
1:01:08
Speaker 2: lot of their bullpen. They use five relief pitchers yesterday,
1:01:11
Speaker 2: and their bullpen sucks. They're ranked dead last, so I
1:01:13
Speaker 2: think they're better than the A's, but that's not saying much.
1:01:17
Speaker 2: Detroit definitely is the better bullpen. They're ranked fourteenth, They're
1:01:20
Speaker 2: a decent bullpen, and they're rested. Detroit is also the
1:01:23
Speaker 2: better offensive team. They're thirteenth Kansas City twenties, so Detroit
1:01:27
Speaker 2: has those edges as well. Detroit's going with Troy Melton here,
1:01:31
Speaker 2: who's been pretty good since they brought him up to
1:01:34
Speaker 2: the major league team last year. I don't think he's
1:01:36
Speaker 2: as good as these numbers look like. These numbers are unsustainable,
1:01:39
Speaker 2: but he is good. A one point seven to one ERA,
1:01:41
Speaker 2: point nine to seven whip. He's been really good on
1:01:44
Speaker 2: the road point nine to nine. Roadyra not good last
1:01:48
Speaker 2: time out though he struggled a The fielding behind him
1:01:51
Speaker 2: kind of ruined the game for him, and I think
1:01:53
Speaker 2: we may have lost on the show on that when
1:01:55
Speaker 2: against the White Sox, I don't remember, but he had
1:01:58
Speaker 2: to stay in the game, like the defense failing behind him,
1:02:02
Speaker 2: I think kind of messed with him and made it
1:02:04
Speaker 2: so that he had to pitch two more guys to
1:02:06
Speaker 2: get out of whatever inning he was in there. He
1:02:08
Speaker 2: didn't make it through the fifth inning there, but prior
1:02:10
Speaker 2: to that he was pitching really well. He's only given
1:02:13
Speaker 2: up more and even in that one, he only give
1:02:15
Speaker 2: up one armed run, so he's only given up more
1:02:17
Speaker 2: than two arned runs once all season. He has a
1:02:20
Speaker 2: really low hit rate, doesn't really walk that many guys either,
1:02:23
Speaker 2: but his strike out rate is kind of more in
1:02:25
Speaker 2: the mediocre range. But his strike out walk ratio is
1:02:29
Speaker 2: fairly good because he doesn't really walk that many guys.
1:02:32
Speaker 2: Strake up for nine is just okay, But I still
1:02:34
Speaker 2: think he's a good pitcher. I would say Melton against
1:02:39
Speaker 2: Kansas City, they're not a good lineup, though they are
1:02:42
Speaker 2: better in their home stadium. Though Kansas City has actually
1:02:44
Speaker 2: hit him, so that is a concern that I would
1:02:47
Speaker 2: have if you do want to back Detroit. So this
1:02:50
Speaker 2: is the first indicator that was negative for me for
1:02:53
Speaker 2: Detroit because I was thinking Detroit was gonna play for
1:02:55
Speaker 2: me here. Then I started looking at this and I'm like,
1:02:58
Speaker 2: maybe not. Kansas City has a two to seventy three
1:03:01
Speaker 2: average in nine to seventy six ops against him in
1:03:05
Speaker 2: five to four strikeout walk racials. I don't love that.
1:03:08
Speaker 2: Although Melton might pitch better here for sure, but those
1:03:11
Speaker 2: numbers do worry me a bit. Noah Cameron is on
1:03:14
Speaker 2: the other side, so it is not one of Kansas
1:03:16
Speaker 2: City's worst pitchers going here. In fact, he's one of
1:03:19
Speaker 2: their better pitchers. He had a good season last year.
1:03:21
Speaker 2: He wasn't good for the first half of this year,
1:03:23
Speaker 2: but he's really turned it around. He's been pitching a
1:03:26
Speaker 2: lot better recently, and his overall numbers this season are
1:03:29
Speaker 2: pretty good four point one sixty RA, one point two
1:03:32
Speaker 2: to WHIP. He's not as good at home, though, so
1:03:35
Speaker 2: moving the walls in I think hurt him here five
1:03:38
Speaker 2: point one to seventy RA and a much worse opponent
1:03:41
Speaker 2: batting average at home as well too, eighty seven, so
1:03:43
Speaker 2: he is significantly worse at home. He just had a
1:03:46
Speaker 2: complete game shutout against the Angels with one hit, so yeah,
1:03:50
Speaker 2: he completely dominated the Angels. He's coming off an awesome
1:03:53
Speaker 2: performance there. Four of his last five starts, he's gone
1:03:56
Speaker 2: at least seven innings and allowed zero or one or
1:04:00
Speaker 2: run and only had one kind of questionable start in here,
1:04:02
Speaker 2: which was on the road against the Dodgers, and one
1:04:05
Speaker 2: of those starts was against Detroit. By the way, the
1:04:08
Speaker 2: first one of those those three shutouts in there was
1:04:11
Speaker 2: at Detroit. He pretty much dominated them, and the only
1:04:15
Speaker 2: concern kind of was that his walk number is a
1:04:17
Speaker 2: little bit high, but it's gone down this month, so
1:04:19
Speaker 2: he's in very good form right now. However, he threw
1:04:22
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteen pitches in the last start against Anaheim.
1:04:25
Speaker 2: Maybe that's a little bit of a concern. When a
1:04:27
Speaker 2: young guy like this like exceeds their usual pitch count
1:04:30
Speaker 2: and now he's thrown over one hundred and three straight starts.
1:04:33
Speaker 2: Sometimes they'll be in a little bit of a letdown
1:04:35
Speaker 2: spot after that, you know what I mean, because they
1:04:36
Speaker 2: get a little bit overworked. So that might be a
1:04:38
Speaker 2: little bit of a bit of a concern for him.
1:04:42
Speaker 2: He's right at the same amount of innings he pitched
1:04:44
Speaker 2: last year, exactly the same amount of innings that he
1:04:46
Speaker 2: pitched last year, So maybe that's a little bit of
1:04:48
Speaker 2: a concern as well, because he's young, so he's about
1:04:51
Speaker 2: to exceed his highest innings pitch count ever. But he's
1:04:55
Speaker 2: in good form right now. He's and he's got a
1:04:57
Speaker 2: low hit ran on the season. Now, his walk rate's
1:04:59
Speaker 2: not too bad, his strike gout rate is okay. So
1:05:01
Speaker 2: his numbers overall are still pretty good here, strike out
1:05:06
Speaker 2: walk ratio, pretty good, strake up for nine. He's actually
1:05:09
Speaker 2: increased his strike gout rate this year, although his walk
1:05:12
Speaker 2: number has gotten worse this year, but the strike up
1:05:14
Speaker 2: for nine has gone up. His numbers against Detroit, I
1:05:20
Speaker 2: believe they're good. Let me see, Yeah, he's been good
1:05:23
Speaker 2: against Detroit twenty three at bats. It's not a big sample,
1:05:26
Speaker 2: but one seventy four average, six p oh one oh
1:05:29
Speaker 2: ps nine to four strike out walk ratio. So I
1:05:32
Speaker 2: started out looking at this leaning towards Detroit. I think
1:05:35
Speaker 2: Detroit has numerous edges here, especially the situation, and Detroit
1:05:40
Speaker 2: may have the more motivation here. However, Kansas City might
1:05:43
Speaker 2: show up to try to spoil the party, you know
1:05:46
Speaker 2: what I mean. The Kansas City's probably gonna still be
1:05:48
Speaker 2: motivated because they get a chance to knock Detroit out
1:05:51
Speaker 2: of the playoffs sort of. The money is coming in
1:05:55
Speaker 2: a Detroit, which was my initial instinct, sixty three percent
1:05:58
Speaker 2: of tickets eighty eight percent of the cast on them.
1:06:00
Speaker 2: The situation does favor Detroit, and Detroit's the better team.
1:06:04
Speaker 2: But the problems I have it looks too easy to
1:06:07
Speaker 2: play Detroit because everybody knows that the better team and
1:06:09
Speaker 2: it's basically a pickham price here, and Kansas City wins
1:06:14
Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup. That's the other issue that I
1:06:17
Speaker 2: have with it is Cameron wins the pitching matchup against
1:06:20
Speaker 2: Melton as far as the matchup numbers. Even if you
1:06:23
Speaker 2: think Melton might be the better of the two pitchers,
1:06:24
Speaker 2: Cameron's also in better current form looking at his last start,
1:06:29
Speaker 2: so that's a bit of a concern. The money's also
1:06:30
Speaker 2: coming in on the under pretty strongly eight. If you're
1:06:33
Speaker 2: gonna play the under, I would say do it in
1:06:35
Speaker 2: the first five. I won't necessarily disagree with it. I
1:06:38
Speaker 2: kind of like both starting pitchers in general, so the
1:06:41
Speaker 2: under maybe makes some sense here as far as first five.
1:06:45
Speaker 2: Definitely wouldn't do it for the full game, though I
1:06:48
Speaker 2: still think I would leave Detroit in the full game,
1:06:52
Speaker 2: just I don't like the matchup numbers, Man, I just don't,
1:06:55
Speaker 2: and it still looks too easy, but the situational spot
1:06:59
Speaker 2: seems to favor them fairly substantially. I think I still
1:07:03
Speaker 2: like the Mets better, though. I think more things line
1:07:05
Speaker 2: up for the Mets. And I still haven't gotten to
1:07:07
Speaker 2: my actual plays. Maybe I'm mean too selective, and maybe
1:07:09
Speaker 2: it's gonna fuck me. This next play will be a
1:07:11
Speaker 2: play for me, and you know it's gonna lose because
1:07:13
Speaker 2: the last time we had the same pitching matchup this
1:07:16
Speaker 2: is Anaheim in Texas. We had the same pitching matchup
1:07:19
Speaker 2: like last week in Anaheim, and it was definitely an
1:07:24
Speaker 2: under and I didn't give it out as a play.
1:07:26
Speaker 2: It was a lean for me. It wasn't a play.
1:07:29
Speaker 2: This time it's going bag and uh, that probably means
1:07:32
Speaker 2: it's gonna lose. I mean, I've won six in a row, man,
1:07:38
Speaker 2: and I know we were in need of a bounce back.
1:07:40
Speaker 2: But we're not gonna continue getting every single play right.
1:07:42
Speaker 2: But we're gonna take this game under the total Anaheim
1:07:45
Speaker 2: Texas under seven and a half at minus one eighteen.
1:07:48
Speaker 2: You could go first five if you want to. And
1:07:50
Speaker 2: I know I don't love these two bullpens, but they're
1:07:53
Speaker 2: not the most disastrous bullpens, and the rest scenario is
1:07:57
Speaker 2: not too bad for these two bullpens. So I'm just
1:07:59
Speaker 2: gonna take the hook on the full game the under
1:08:02
Speaker 2: seven and a half. Like I said, the last time
1:08:04
Speaker 2: these two pitchers matched up was in Anaheim, and Mackenzie
1:08:08
Speaker 2: Gore is pitching here, and he's way better at home
1:08:10
Speaker 2: than on the road, and he was still really good
1:08:12
Speaker 2: in that game in Anaheim. Some of it is a
1:08:14
Speaker 2: function of these offenses just not being good. But in
1:08:18
Speaker 2: that game, it was a four to one game. I
1:08:20
Speaker 2: forget which team won, but it went into extra innings,
1:08:23
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, so I think it was a one
1:08:25
Speaker 2: to one gamer. It might have been zero zero actually
1:08:27
Speaker 2: at the end of nine innings. So that was an
1:08:30
Speaker 2: absolute under in that game. And we don't need it
1:08:32
Speaker 2: to be that low scoring here to get the job
1:08:34
Speaker 2: done here in this one. So I'm gonna actually play
1:08:37
Speaker 2: it this time, even though I probably should have in
1:08:40
Speaker 2: the last one. It didn't. It looks better for an
1:08:44
Speaker 2: under here, though it obviously couldn't really get better than
1:08:46
Speaker 2: what it was last time. Last time it was just
1:08:48
Speaker 2: an easy under, like one of the easiest you'll ever get.
1:08:51
Speaker 2: It's not gonna be that easy this time. Probably, I
1:08:53
Speaker 2: hope it is, but I think it's I think we're
1:08:55
Speaker 2: still gonna get it. We should still get it, but
1:08:58
Speaker 2: now that I settle that, we're not gonna get it.
1:09:00
Speaker 2: But you know, Gore is just way better at home,
1:09:02
Speaker 2: and I think that sets this one up to be
1:09:04
Speaker 2: a nice underplay here. Plus you know Texas with how
1:09:07
Speaker 2: they trend under at home, even though that trend is
1:09:09
Speaker 2: kind of waned recently, I still think it's the right
1:09:13
Speaker 2: way to look in this game. And yes, I wasn't
1:09:18
Speaker 2: you know, I wasn't too excited about the Texas under yesterday,
1:09:21
Speaker 2: but it happened easily yesterday to nothing game. Mister Pinsey,
1:09:24
Speaker 2: you asked about that game. I agreed with it, and
1:09:27
Speaker 2: it won if you went first five or full game,
1:09:30
Speaker 2: you won it with the under in that one yesterday.
1:09:32
Speaker 2: I had my concerns about it, but Texas de Grom
1:09:36
Speaker 2: definitely held up his end of the bargain there. But anyway,
1:09:39
Speaker 2: Texas is coming off a very low scoring game at home.
1:09:42
Speaker 2: Both these teams did play yesterday, and you know, usually
1:09:44
Speaker 2: I like to look for rested bullpens, but still Texas.
1:09:48
Speaker 2: They only used three guys out of the bullpen, although
1:09:50
Speaker 2: yes they did use lots, so I believe they use
1:09:52
Speaker 2: as a closer. But still I think they're both been
1:09:56
Speaker 2: The rest in area is not too bad. They're going
1:09:58
Speaker 2: up against a bad offense, so hopefully they can get
1:10:00
Speaker 2: it done here in Anaheim. I know they're not a
1:10:02
Speaker 2: good bullpend, but they only use one guy out of
1:10:04
Speaker 2: the bullpen, so I'm this full game. Although, like I
1:10:08
Speaker 2: was saying, you could go first five on this as well,
1:10:10
Speaker 2: it's mostly three and a half so but I did
1:10:12
Speaker 2: see a four, but you had to lay minus one
1:10:14
Speaker 2: twenty five for it. I'd consider maybe doing that the
1:10:18
Speaker 2: under four minus one twenty five. But my hope here
1:10:20
Speaker 2: is that the starting pitchers are gonna get us a
1:10:22
Speaker 2: little bit deeper into this game, and I think that's
1:10:24
Speaker 2: more likely the Debt Merse to do so than Gore here.
1:10:28
Speaker 2: But even if one of them does, I think that's
1:10:30
Speaker 2: gonna help us out here, and Debt Meurse is pitching
1:10:33
Speaker 2: for the team that has the lesser of the bullpen,
1:10:35
Speaker 2: so if it's him that gets us deeper, that is
1:10:38
Speaker 2: a plus. Anaheim is the twenty second ranked bullpen Texas
1:10:42
Speaker 2: twenty aethough the Texas era is worse, but they're not
1:10:45
Speaker 2: like the most disastrous bullpens. Like I said that, we're
1:10:48
Speaker 2: not looking at Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, as Kansas City. Maybe
1:10:53
Speaker 2: the Reds like those are the ones that you really
1:10:55
Speaker 2: really need to avoid. As far as the hitting, I
1:10:59
Speaker 2: think that helps this under as well, because these teams
1:11:01
Speaker 2: don't hit well. Texas twenty second, Anaheim twenty seventh. Yeah,
1:11:05
Speaker 2: that's not good. Not good offenses here, reed debt mers
1:11:08
Speaker 2: Like I said, he's pitching for Anaheim. Havent backed him
1:11:11
Speaker 2: in a while, and he screwed me a few times,
1:11:13
Speaker 2: which pisses me off. Because he's a good pitcher, a
1:11:16
Speaker 2: three point seven to eighty RA one point zero six whip.
1:11:19
Speaker 2: He's not as good on the road, but still not
1:11:21
Speaker 2: too bad Ale though four point one ninety RA doesn't
1:11:23
Speaker 2: really look that good, but a two twenty nine upon
1:11:25
Speaker 2: a batting average on the road pretty good. It's just
1:11:27
Speaker 2: his walk rate does go up on the road, so
1:11:30
Speaker 2: that is something to be aware of. But he's pitching well.
1:11:33
Speaker 2: He just had an eight inning shutout of Kansas City
1:11:35
Speaker 2: with eleven strikeouts and he only threw ninety two pitches,
1:11:39
Speaker 2: so he wasn't overworked in that game at all, So
1:11:41
Speaker 2: he pitched well in that one. He's pitching pretty well recently.
1:11:45
Speaker 2: He's allowed more than touring runs only once in his
1:11:48
Speaker 2: last six starts. So yeah, he's in good form right now.
1:11:51
Speaker 2: Got a low hit rate on the season, his walk
1:11:53
Speaker 2: rate's not too bad, strike out rate is high. All
1:11:56
Speaker 2: those numbers are good. Nice strike up for nine actually
1:11:59
Speaker 2: the best that he's had in his career. A nice
1:12:02
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio, excuse me, best in his career.
1:12:05
Speaker 2: I always do that. The strikeout for nine is actually
1:12:07
Speaker 2: a little bit lower than the last couple of seasons.
1:12:09
Speaker 2: But he is still a very good strikeout pitcher. And
1:12:12
Speaker 2: he's going up against a Texas offense here that does
1:12:15
Speaker 2: not do too well against him in ninety four at bats,
1:12:17
Speaker 2: So we have a big sample here. One ninety one average,
1:12:20
Speaker 2: six fifty two oh ps, thirty nine to ten strike
1:12:23
Speaker 2: out walk ratio. It's a lot of strikeouts. Even though
1:12:26
Speaker 2: the walk number looks a little bit high, it's still
1:12:29
Speaker 2: not a bad ratio there at all. So those are
1:12:31
Speaker 2: pretty good numbers from debt meurs against Texas. Texas is
1:12:35
Speaker 2: going with Mackenzie Gore. I think he's a decent pitcher.
1:12:38
Speaker 2: He's got decent strikeout stuff. His problem is always just
1:12:41
Speaker 2: he's too wild. He's got a four point four to
1:12:44
Speaker 2: five year array, one point two to six whip. He
1:12:47
Speaker 2: is good at home though three point two seven Homie
1:12:49
Speaker 2: arrays better than it's more than two runs better. So
1:12:52
Speaker 2: that was one of the things I was worried about
1:12:54
Speaker 2: him on the road. Still bitch really well in that
1:12:56
Speaker 2: start on the road there against Anaheim last time, but
1:13:00
Speaker 2: he's better at home. He went only five and a
1:13:03
Speaker 2: third in that one, but he only allowed one run
1:13:05
Speaker 2: and it was a four to one win in ten
1:13:07
Speaker 2: innings for Texas in that one, Gore, I mean, he's
1:13:11
Speaker 2: not going that deep into these outings, which might worry
1:13:13
Speaker 2: me a little bit, but he's not allowing that many runs,
1:13:15
Speaker 2: so I think he can kind of hold down the
1:13:18
Speaker 2: fort here in this one. He's got a low hit rate. Again,
1:13:20
Speaker 2: his walk rate is the one main issue with him.
1:13:22
Speaker 2: It's a bad walk number, but he does strike out
1:13:24
Speaker 2: a lot of guys too, so that's keeping a strike
1:13:27
Speaker 2: out walk ratio in a decent at a decent number
1:13:31
Speaker 2: there at three. I think pitching in Texas helps him
1:13:34
Speaker 2: out a little bit too. Strike out for nine is
1:13:38
Speaker 2: pretty good, although it's gone down a little bit this year,
1:13:40
Speaker 2: but it's almost ten, so that's still pretty good. And
1:13:43
Speaker 2: Gore against Anaheim. They're a weak offense, dude, and I
1:13:46
Speaker 2: believe they do not do well against Gore. Yeah, Gore
1:13:49
Speaker 2: has the upper hand against him. In seventy seven at
1:13:51
Speaker 2: bats two thirty four average, six point fifty two ops,
1:13:54
Speaker 2: twenty four to nine strike out walk ratio isn't exactly
1:13:57
Speaker 2: that good. Gore again, kind of walking too many guys,
1:14:00
Speaker 2: but still he has the upper hand in this matchup.
1:14:04
Speaker 2: And if you're wondering, Detmer's in that start. That last
1:14:07
Speaker 2: time these two pitchers faced off against each other in
1:14:11
Speaker 2: what was a pitching duel. Detmers went six innings in
1:14:14
Speaker 2: that one, although he walked four guys, which is a
1:14:16
Speaker 2: little concerning, but he only allowed one run on three hits,
1:14:19
Speaker 2: so he was still pretty good in that one. We're
1:14:21
Speaker 2: taking this one under. I believe the money agrees with
1:14:25
Speaker 2: me on this. Where is it? Let me see? Uh, yeah,
1:14:29
Speaker 2: we have fifty five percent of tickets, sixty six percent
1:14:32
Speaker 2: of the cash on the under. Seven and a half
1:14:34
Speaker 2: is the number here. I found it at a decent price. Again,
1:14:36
Speaker 2: if you wanted to go first five, I'm not going
1:14:38
Speaker 2: to disagree with that. And usually I do want to
1:14:41
Speaker 2: exclude Anaheim's bullpen and Texas bullpen has really disappointed me
1:14:45
Speaker 2: this year, but in this particular matchup, this particular spot,
1:14:49
Speaker 2: with the bullpen rest scenario not really being that bad,
1:14:53
Speaker 2: I'll extend it to the full game. Hope the pitchers
1:14:56
Speaker 2: may go a little bit deeper than we need them
1:14:58
Speaker 2: to here, and also roll with some bad offenses here
1:15:02
Speaker 2: to help us out, and we get the hook on
1:15:04
Speaker 2: that full game. So let's go under seven and a
1:15:06
Speaker 2: half full game there, all right, I'm gonna be right back.
1:15:10
Speaker 2: I do have one more play here, and I will
1:15:11
Speaker 2: talk about WNBA in preseason as well. This show is
1:15:16
Speaker 2: taken way longer than I wanted it to. I've a
1:15:18
Speaker 2: right back yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're
1:15:26
Speaker 2: on own seven run over the last two days after tonight.
1:15:30
Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
1:15:33
Speaker 2: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
1:15:36
Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
1:15:39
Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
1:15:41
Speaker 2: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
1:15:46
Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
1:15:49
Speaker 2: four that have not had a good season. Man with
1:15:54
Speaker 2: wookends slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached
1:15:59
Speaker 2: into peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hack Man,
1:16:04
Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
1:16:07
Speaker 2: Arch epe is that what it is? I don't even
1:16:09
Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man?
1:16:13
Speaker 2: I don't know what DAT is amo, I don't even
1:16:15
Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. Man's back with you after
1:16:19
Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
1:16:22
Speaker 2: you as I always am until I die at least
1:16:26
Speaker 2: oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not go well
1:16:29
Speaker 2: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
1:16:33
Speaker 2: had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know
1:16:35
Speaker 2: what to even tell you about this anymore. The slumpers,
1:16:38
Speaker 2: the slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:16:45
Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
1:16:47
Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all all right? Next game
1:16:57
Speaker 2: is Cleveland? Call rad Like I said, Cleveland getting some
1:17:03
Speaker 2: weak opponents here, but this is in Colorado. Colorado also
1:17:07
Speaker 2: has a rest advantage here and they're staying at home.
1:17:09
Speaker 2: They just got swept by the Dodgers at home, so
1:17:14
Speaker 2: they do have a rest edge. Is that gonna be enough?
1:17:16
Speaker 2: Maybe not? Because they suck. Cleveland did have to use
1:17:20
Speaker 2: some relief pitchers yesterday. They use four guys out of
1:17:23
Speaker 2: the bullpen, so Cleveland's bullpen they use their closer as well.
1:17:26
Speaker 2: I believe Cleveland. Yeah, their bullpen is in worse rest shape.
1:17:30
Speaker 2: They are starting a road trip here, having to go
1:17:32
Speaker 2: out into elevation maybe not. May not be the easiest
1:17:36
Speaker 2: spot for them. Did you just beat the Giants at home?
1:17:40
Speaker 2: So yeah, rest edge for Colorado, But I don't really
1:17:43
Speaker 2: think I want to come in and try to back
1:17:45
Speaker 2: Colorado here. Cleveland bullpen is better than Colorado even with
1:17:50
Speaker 2: the rest disadvantage. Probably they still are better. They're seventeenth.
1:17:55
Speaker 2: They're not a horrible bullpen. Colorado is Colorado's twenty seventh. Offensively,
1:18:01
Speaker 2: Colorado is the better team. They're fifth and Cleveland dead
1:18:05
Speaker 2: last thirtieth. Cleveland, yeah, has really struggled offensively. Cleveland will
1:18:10
Speaker 2: have the starting pitching edge here with Joey Cantillo He's
1:18:14
Speaker 2: a decent strikeout pitcher, although he does walk too many
1:18:17
Speaker 2: guys three point eight e Ra one point four to four.
1:18:20
Speaker 2: Whip is pretty high though, and he's not as good
1:18:23
Speaker 2: on the road four point oh two Roady Ray, that
1:18:25
Speaker 2: would be a little bit concerning here. He's pitching alright recently,
1:18:31
Speaker 2: decent strikeout numbers from him here. His hit rate is okay,
1:18:34
Speaker 2: his strike his walk rate is too high. Like I said,
1:18:37
Speaker 2: strike out rate is pretty good, So that's what you
1:18:39
Speaker 2: get out of him. Recent form is interesting because there
1:18:42
Speaker 2: was one game where I don't know what happened, rain
1:18:44
Speaker 2: shortened or something really went one inning against the White Sox.
1:18:47
Speaker 2: But his other two starts or other few starts recently
1:18:50
Speaker 2: have all been okay. Again, his whip is too high though,
1:18:55
Speaker 2: just the walks are just way too high. It's dragging
1:18:57
Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio down. His strike up's nine are
1:19:00
Speaker 2: good though at ten so again, he is a good
1:19:03
Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher, but he walks too many. Cantio against Colorado,
1:19:09
Speaker 2: only Willie Castro has ever faced him, and he's zero
1:19:12
Speaker 2: for four with a strikeout in a walk against him.
1:19:14
Speaker 2: The other thing you do have to worry about is
1:19:16
Speaker 2: is he a fly ball pitcher, and he's not really
1:19:18
Speaker 2: that extreme a fly ball pitcher, so maybe that'll help
1:19:22
Speaker 2: him out here. He did pitch in the A's Stadium
1:19:24
Speaker 2: earlier this year, which is a hitter friendly park, and
1:19:26
Speaker 2: he did not do particularly well in that start, mostly
1:19:29
Speaker 2: because he was wild, though, So I don't think the
1:19:33
Speaker 2: pitching of course Field is that bad for Cantillo's style,
1:19:37
Speaker 2: but I don't know if I fully want to trust
1:19:38
Speaker 2: him here. Colorado is going with Tanner Gordon, although they
1:19:42
Speaker 2: might be going with some sort of bullpen game here
1:19:45
Speaker 2: because he's kind of been a relief pitcher. So I
1:19:47
Speaker 2: would say, if you're gonna play this game, you might
1:19:48
Speaker 2: want to pick Cantillo must start, and not pick a
1:19:51
Speaker 2: starter for Colorado, because who knows Gordon as a five
1:19:55
Speaker 2: point five to five v. One point four to four whip.
1:19:57
Speaker 2: He's really bad in course field seven point eight two
1:20:01
Speaker 2: ARA at home. Not good. He's been basically getting a
1:20:03
Speaker 2: starter's workload recently, and Colorado's lost the last five games
1:20:07
Speaker 2: he's pitched him, which is not really that surprising overall. Yeah,
1:20:11
Speaker 2: I mean, he doesn't really walk too many guys, but
1:20:15
Speaker 2: his numbers are not great. He's very hittable, and he
1:20:18
Speaker 2: los a lot of fly balls and a lot of
1:20:19
Speaker 2: home runs, so that obviously doesn't translate well into course field.
1:20:23
Speaker 2: He's too hittable by far. He doesn't walk a lot
1:20:26
Speaker 2: of guys at least at His strike up rate is okay,
1:20:28
Speaker 2: but he's kind of going out there and serving up
1:20:31
Speaker 2: batting practice man, which is not good. Even though his
1:20:34
Speaker 2: strike up walk ratio looks good. So the advanced analytics
1:20:37
Speaker 2: guys should be like, oh, yeah, man, like this guy's
1:20:40
Speaker 2: actually pretty good. But no, they probably are also seeing
1:20:44
Speaker 2: that he's given up so many hits that it's not good,
1:20:46
Speaker 2: and his strike up for nine is actually not that good.
1:20:48
Speaker 2: It's just that his walk rate is really really low.
1:20:51
Speaker 2: But again he's just putting pitches over the plate and
1:20:53
Speaker 2: getting hammered. Gordon probably does not have too much experience
1:20:57
Speaker 2: against Cleveland. Let me say they have twelve at bats,
1:21:02
Speaker 2: five hitters of face and they have a five hundred
1:21:04
Speaker 2: average twelve oh five ops. Yes, I did look at
1:21:07
Speaker 2: all this earlier. I just forget. Yeah, twelve oh five ops.
1:21:11
Speaker 2: That is high, small sample size though one to one
1:21:14
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio, you know, I mean, Colorado has
1:21:18
Speaker 2: the rest edge Cleveland should probably still win the game,
1:21:21
Speaker 2: but they're like minus one fifty here. I wouldn't want
1:21:24
Speaker 2: to do it. Cleveland's a bit public too, because everybody
1:21:27
Speaker 2: kind of knows Cleveland needs to win to stay in
1:21:29
Speaker 2: the wild Card hunt. Here eighty three percent of tickets,
1:21:32
Speaker 2: eighty six percent of the cash on Cleveland. They're a
1:21:35
Speaker 2: public side. I mean you could, I guess, maybe look
1:21:38
Speaker 2: towards an over. Totals at ten and a half, so
1:21:40
Speaker 2: it is below that key number of eleven. It's a
1:21:43
Speaker 2: cors Field total. Money is definitely coming in on the over.
1:21:47
Speaker 2: But Cantino might actually pitch well here, So I don't know, man,
1:21:50
Speaker 2: I would worry about it a little bit. You could go, I, man,
1:21:53
Speaker 2: would you really want to go Cleveland over their team
1:21:56
Speaker 2: total though a team that can't hit at all? I
1:21:59
Speaker 2: don't no, man. We'll see what Cleveland could do offensively
1:22:02
Speaker 2: in this Colorado series, but I don't have a good
1:22:05
Speaker 2: read on that one. Cincinnati and Arizona, this is kind
1:22:08
Speaker 2: of the battle of the advanced analytics hatred because those
1:22:14
Speaker 2: guys hate both pitchers. In this game, Arizona beat the
1:22:19
Speaker 2: Red Sox to finish their road trip after losing that series.
1:22:24
Speaker 2: They're coming back home from a road trip. They were
1:22:26
Speaker 2: off yesterday, I believe. Yeah, so Arizona has a rest
1:22:28
Speaker 2: advantage here. But the problem is they have a disadvantage
1:22:31
Speaker 2: because they're returning from the East Coast, so it's not
1:22:33
Speaker 2: a great spot for them, having to readjust to a
1:22:36
Speaker 2: late night time and having to play late night baseball again,
1:22:40
Speaker 2: so it might mess with their biological clock. Plus the
1:22:42
Speaker 2: return home spot tends to be a distracted spot, not
1:22:45
Speaker 2: really that good, and they might overlook a team like
1:22:47
Speaker 2: Cincinnati that's going nowhere. However, Cincinnati played yesterday against Saint Louis,
1:22:53
Speaker 2: so they were involved in a divisional battle and it
1:22:55
Speaker 2: was a tough game where a lot of runs came
1:22:58
Speaker 2: home in that game. So Cincinnati is not exactly in
1:23:00
Speaker 2: the greatest spot here, and they're also having to travel
1:23:04
Speaker 2: from the Central time zone in their case out to
1:23:07
Speaker 2: the well whatever times on Arizona's in but they're playing
1:23:11
Speaker 2: a game that's almost the latest that you could be at,
1:23:14
Speaker 2: not quite the late late games, but still not great.
1:23:18
Speaker 2: So I don't know, neither team is really in a
1:23:21
Speaker 2: great spot here. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen here. They
1:23:25
Speaker 2: use five relief pitchers there no four relief pitchers. Yesterday
1:23:29
Speaker 2: Arizona was off. Arizona's the number seven bowlpenal, though I
1:23:32
Speaker 2: don't think they're that good. They're better than Cincinnati. Cincinnati's
1:23:36
Speaker 2: twenty fifth offensively, Arizona I think ranks a little bit
1:23:41
Speaker 2: higher as well. Yeah, they're eighteenth and they're playing better
1:23:43
Speaker 2: recently Cincinnati twenty fifth, So Arizona does have the better
1:23:46
Speaker 2: offense as well. Arizona probably has the better starting pitcher
1:23:50
Speaker 2: to Nick Ludolo's pitching for the Reds not really very good.
1:23:54
Speaker 2: Four point five two Era one point four to Whip
1:23:57
Speaker 2: pitched a bit better than this. I think really kind
1:24:00
Speaker 2: of throughout his career he's been better than this, but
1:24:02
Speaker 2: this year he's had some issues. I think he's had
1:24:05
Speaker 2: some injuries and some blister issues. I don't know what's
1:24:08
Speaker 2: going on with him. He's a little bit better on
1:24:10
Speaker 2: the road though four point two to one. Rodio Ray
1:24:13
Speaker 2: was decent in his last start against Miami at least. Still,
1:24:17
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say he's necessarily in great form here. Start
1:24:20
Speaker 2: before that was pretty ugly against the White Sox. So
1:24:23
Speaker 2: though you could argue that most of his recent appearances
1:24:26
Speaker 2: have actually been more good than bad, so at least
1:24:28
Speaker 2: there is that his hit rate is still too high.
1:24:30
Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk that many guys. Strike out rate
1:24:33
Speaker 2: is kind of low, though not really a whole lot
1:24:35
Speaker 2: to love here. Strike out walk race is still pretty low,
1:24:38
Speaker 2: given that it's kind of a mediocre walk rate and
1:24:41
Speaker 2: not a great strikeout ray. His strike out rates way
1:24:44
Speaker 2: down this year. Actually, he used to strike out way
1:24:46
Speaker 2: more guys, so it seems like his stuff isn't really
1:24:50
Speaker 2: there right now, so I don't know what's going on
1:24:52
Speaker 2: with him. His numbers against Arizona are actually pretty good though,
1:24:57
Speaker 2: forty at bats two hundred average, five eight and nine
1:24:59
Speaker 2: OHP nine to one strike out walk ratio, so he
1:25:02
Speaker 2: does have good matchup numbers here. The question is is
1:25:05
Speaker 2: Lodolo going to return to some sort of form like
1:25:08
Speaker 2: he has been in the like he's looked in the past.
1:25:10
Speaker 2: He's not that old, so I don't know. Man. And
1:25:13
Speaker 2: then E rod is pitching for Arizona Eduardo Rodriguez. He's
1:25:17
Speaker 2: been good on the season. Two point seven one ERA,
1:25:20
Speaker 2: one point two to one wipth does indicate his RA
1:25:22
Speaker 2: should be higher, though, and the advanced analytics guys hate
1:25:25
Speaker 2: this because he's not striking guys out, so they keep
1:25:27
Speaker 2: expecting regression and he keeps still pitching decently. He's a
1:25:31
Speaker 2: little bit worse at home ray wise, but his opponent
1:25:34
Speaker 2: batting average is better at home, so not really a
1:25:36
Speaker 2: lot to take away from that. Last two starts are
1:25:39
Speaker 2: both pretty good. He's got a really good command ratio
1:25:42
Speaker 2: this month eighteen to two and eighteen to two thirds innings.
1:25:45
Speaker 2: That's pretty good. That's the strike out walk ratio. He's
1:25:48
Speaker 2: been too hittable this month, but most of his recent
1:25:52
Speaker 2: starts have been pretty good. He's allowed two or viewer
1:25:54
Speaker 2: ear runs, and all the two starts going back to
1:25:58
Speaker 2: the beginning of July that going all the way back,
1:26:01
Speaker 2: I would say, yeah, going all the way back to
1:26:02
Speaker 2: early June, that's been the case. Al though the two
1:26:05
Speaker 2: starts that weren't those good ones were both pretty bad.
1:26:08
Speaker 2: Though his hit rate is actually pretty low in the season,
1:26:11
Speaker 2: it's not bad. His walk rate isn't really too bad either,
1:26:14
Speaker 2: but his strikeout rate is low, so he doesn't have
1:26:17
Speaker 2: his strikeout stuff anymore. Strikeout walk ratio is not great
1:26:21
Speaker 2: because the strike out rate is so low and the
1:26:22
Speaker 2: walk rate is kind of okay. His strike out per
1:26:25
Speaker 2: nine is way down, which is kind of what the
1:26:28
Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys are talking about. It's gotten. It's the
1:26:31
Speaker 2: lowest that it's been in his career by far, so
1:26:34
Speaker 2: his strikeout stuff just isn't really there anymore. However, he
1:26:39
Speaker 2: is good against the Reds and their offense is not
1:26:42
Speaker 2: very good fifty one at bats to sixteen average, six
1:26:45
Speaker 2: forty four ops, thirteen to seven strike out walk ratio.
1:26:48
Speaker 2: The only problem there really is the walks. It kind
1:26:51
Speaker 2: of sounds insane and I don't really want to do it,
1:26:54
Speaker 2: but given the matchup numbers being that good and the
1:26:57
Speaker 2: market agreeing with this, I would say first five on
1:27:00
Speaker 2: in this one. I don't want to deal with the
1:27:01
Speaker 2: Reds bullpen here, but totals at eight and a half,
1:27:06
Speaker 2: you'll probably get a four or four and a half
1:27:08
Speaker 2: here in the first five, which is pretty reasonable. Although
1:27:11
Speaker 2: we are looking at a hitter friendly park here, and
1:27:14
Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys are waiting for these well, waiting
1:27:17
Speaker 2: for Erod to implode, and they don't like Lodolo, and
1:27:20
Speaker 2: it looks like there's kind of something wrong with both pictures,
1:27:23
Speaker 2: to be honest with, they're both having their worst season
1:27:25
Speaker 2: of their career. Kind of as far as some of
1:27:27
Speaker 2: their numbers will go. The e Rod his numbers like
1:27:30
Speaker 2: the ERA and whatever are some of his best, but
1:27:33
Speaker 2: his advanced analytics numbers are like some of the worst
1:27:36
Speaker 2: that was seen out of him. It's insane. It's so
1:27:39
Speaker 2: hard to figure these guys out. But yeah, I think
1:27:41
Speaker 2: if I was gonna play this game, I would play
1:27:42
Speaker 2: the first five under though, and just go with the
1:27:46
Speaker 2: pictures to actually do well enough in this one, I
1:27:49
Speaker 2: don't want to do. It seems too risky. But seventy
1:27:51
Speaker 2: two percent of tickets on the over fifty percent of
1:27:53
Speaker 2: the cash on the out. Of course, you got to
1:27:54
Speaker 2: take risks when you're doing this, but the goal is to,
1:27:57
Speaker 2: I think, find the the more risk averse plays, let's say,
1:28:02
Speaker 2: the ones that are at least kind of more predictable
1:28:05
Speaker 2: in a way. But now that I've said that, we're
1:28:06
Speaker 2: gonna have a losing day today, man. Anyway, Yeah, seventy
1:28:10
Speaker 2: two percent of the cash in the over fifty percent
1:28:12
Speaker 2: of the cash on the under in that one. Money's
1:28:14
Speaker 2: seemingly indicating on Arizona a little bit, but they're public
1:28:18
Speaker 2: as well. Eighty percent of tickets eighty seven percent of
1:28:20
Speaker 2: the cash on them and everybody's gonna see e Rod
1:28:22
Speaker 2: as the better era and everybody knows that Arizona's trying
1:28:26
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. Here they're in the wild card
1:28:28
Speaker 2: race and Cincinnati is not really so that's that's being
1:28:34
Speaker 2: factored into the line here and jacking up the line
1:28:36
Speaker 2: on Arizona a little bit. They're about minus one fifty here.
1:28:39
Speaker 2: I don't have a good read on the side really
1:28:42
Speaker 2: I would. I don't think I'd want to play the
1:28:43
Speaker 2: Reds though, you know, I mean, e Rod is still
1:28:45
Speaker 2: the better of the pitchers. Arizona does have the arrest edge,
1:28:48
Speaker 2: but Arizona returning home from a road trip is not
1:28:51
Speaker 2: something I'm interested in either, all right, Minnesota and San Diego. Uh,
1:28:58
Speaker 2: san Diego is returning home from a road so that's
1:29:01
Speaker 2: a negative. I believe both teams are off yesterday, but
1:29:05
Speaker 2: san Diego's are turning over from the East coast. You know,
1:29:07
Speaker 2: I talk about that returning from a road trip in
1:29:10
Speaker 2: general is bad because you got to get back to
1:29:12
Speaker 2: home life. Whatever. Although both these teams are fighting for
1:29:15
Speaker 2: wildcard positioning right now, san Diego having to adjust to
1:29:19
Speaker 2: the Pacific time zone as well, maybe not the greatest
1:29:23
Speaker 2: thing biological clockwise. Minnesota has to do that too, but
1:29:26
Speaker 2: they're coming from the Central times on and however, they
1:29:29
Speaker 2: might be in a letdown spot because they just swept
1:29:31
Speaker 2: the braves. So I don't really love the spot that
1:29:34
Speaker 2: Minnesota's in, although it's still better than San Diego's because
1:29:37
Speaker 2: San Diego is still in the return home spot. San
1:29:40
Speaker 2: Diego does have the better bullpen, obviously, they're one of
1:29:42
Speaker 2: the best, better than that Minnesota twenty eighth. They're definitely
1:29:49
Speaker 2: not a good bullpen. Minnesota is the better offense. They're
1:29:52
Speaker 2: tenth tied with Houston and the world looking get a
1:29:54
Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park here. San Diego is twenty third. They've
1:29:57
Speaker 2: been hitting a little bit better recently. Connor pre Lip
1:30:01
Speaker 2: is pitching from Minnesota here. He's had some struggles. I
1:30:05
Speaker 2: think he's a rookie this year. He's better than his
1:30:07
Speaker 2: five point three four e RA makes him look, but
1:30:09
Speaker 2: one point three to eight whip is still not very good.
1:30:12
Speaker 2: He's way worse on the road. Six point one five
1:30:15
Speaker 2: ROADYRA with the over three hundred component batting average on
1:30:19
Speaker 2: the road. That's not good. His last home start, he
1:30:22
Speaker 2: got shelled by Philly. Minnesota's lost his last three starts,
1:30:25
Speaker 2: and he hasn't really been particularly good in any of them.
1:30:27
Speaker 2: He's walking too many guys, so pre Lip is not
1:30:30
Speaker 2: in good form right now. He's got good strikeout stuff,
1:30:33
Speaker 2: his hit rate is mediocre, his walk rates a little
1:30:36
Speaker 2: bit too high. The strikeouts are there, so if he
1:30:38
Speaker 2: can fix his command and stuff he's he might wind
1:30:42
Speaker 2: up being a good pitcher, but right now the walks
1:30:45
Speaker 2: are his biggest concern. His strike out rate is good,
1:30:47
Speaker 2: so he can fool guys at the major league level
1:30:49
Speaker 2: at least. Strikeout walk ratio is still not great because
1:30:52
Speaker 2: of the walks. Shrek out for nine is pretty good,
1:30:55
Speaker 2: though pre Lip against San Diego they basically haven't seen
1:30:59
Speaker 2: him when he is zero for three, often with two strikeouts.
1:31:02
Speaker 2: Nobody else in this lineup has faced him, and Randy
1:31:05
Speaker 2: Vazquez is on the other side for San Diego. He's
1:31:07
Speaker 2: no good four point three ERA one point three eight
1:31:11
Speaker 2: whip not very good, so both pitchers have pretty bad
1:31:13
Speaker 2: whips here. Vazquz, for whatever reason, doesn't do well in
1:31:17
Speaker 2: San Diego, even though it's a pitcher friendly ballpark. Four
1:31:20
Speaker 2: point seven to eight ERA here two eighty four U
1:31:22
Speaker 2: point A batting average that is not good. He's worse
1:31:25
Speaker 2: at home. He doesn't really strike out a lot of guys,
1:31:28
Speaker 2: even though he's not allowing that many runs recently. Don't
1:31:31
Speaker 2: be fooled because he doesn't strike guys out a lot
1:31:33
Speaker 2: of times. He walks too many guys, even though he's
1:31:35
Speaker 2: gotten the walk rate down again recently. He doesn't go
1:31:38
Speaker 2: too deep into his starts. He's very hit able. He's
1:31:40
Speaker 2: allowed way too many hits. His walk rate is just okay,
1:31:43
Speaker 2: it's better than it usually he is. At least. Strike
1:31:46
Speaker 2: out rate is quite low though, so strike out walk
1:31:49
Speaker 2: ratio is ugly. Although actually his walk grade's lower than
1:31:52
Speaker 2: it usually is, so that's a good thing, I guess.
1:31:55
Speaker 2: But he still doesn't strike anybody out. A strike up
1:31:57
Speaker 2: for nine is very low. Strike out walk ratio still bad.
1:32:00
Speaker 2: Advanced analytics guys definitely don't think he's good. His numbers
1:32:04
Speaker 2: against Minnesota. I mean, only Josh Bell has ever faced him.
1:32:09
Speaker 2: He's one for two with a home run though, no strikeouts,
1:32:12
Speaker 2: no walks. I mean, I don't trust either pitcher here.
1:32:17
Speaker 3: Man.
1:32:17
Speaker 2: I'm thinking maybe the over is the better way to
1:32:19
Speaker 2: look at this one. But with both offenses getting the
1:32:22
Speaker 2: rest yesterday and that might throw off the offenses a
1:32:25
Speaker 2: little bit, so I don't really want to do that,
1:32:27
Speaker 2: and the return home can kind of throw off the
1:32:29
Speaker 2: offenses too, But the market reid isn't very strong, and
1:32:33
Speaker 2: on either the total or the side here eighty six
1:32:35
Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
1:32:37
Speaker 2: the over, so it's a public over. The totals at eight.
1:32:40
Speaker 2: But I think if I was forced to give a
1:32:42
Speaker 2: play on this, I would probably say the over eighty
1:32:44
Speaker 2: nine percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash.
1:32:46
Speaker 2: On San Diego. They're a small favorite down for minus
1:32:49
Speaker 2: one forty eight all the way down to minus one sixteen.
1:32:51
Speaker 2: They might have switched pitchers. Maybe that's why the number
1:32:55
Speaker 2: looks like it does, or why it moved like that,
1:32:57
Speaker 2: because the money didn't do that. I think they must
1:33:00
Speaker 2: have had another starter schedule and then they switched to Vazquez.
1:33:03
Speaker 2: That would definitely knock the line down on San Diego
1:33:06
Speaker 2: because Vasquez is not good San Diego public eighty nine
1:33:09
Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on them.
1:33:13
Speaker 2: It's a return home spots. I would not want San Diego.
1:33:16
Speaker 2: Although pre lip isn't kind of the worst form here.
1:33:18
Speaker 2: But pre Lip has the higher ceiling out of the
1:33:21
Speaker 2: two pitchers, and San Diego in the return home spot.
1:33:24
Speaker 2: I guess maybe you could lean Minnesota first five here
1:33:27
Speaker 2: obviously exclude their bullpen, but I don't want to do it.
1:33:30
Speaker 2: Next game up is my last play, and I think
1:33:39
Speaker 2: I'm going against the market read here, and I am
1:33:43
Speaker 2: playing on a team that is having to go out
1:33:45
Speaker 2: to the Pacific Coast, so we have to worry about
1:33:47
Speaker 2: that a little bit. They think that's gonna affect both
1:33:49
Speaker 2: teams a little bit here, but we're gonna play the
1:33:51
Speaker 2: Chicago Cubs against Seattle here. Man, I don't like the
1:33:55
Speaker 2: spot for Seattle for a number of reasons. Here. Seattle's
1:33:58
Speaker 2: returning home from a long road But they went to
1:34:00
Speaker 2: New York to play the Yankees. In Houston, then Milwaukee,
1:34:04
Speaker 2: they played some teams that are all in the playoff
1:34:07
Speaker 2: races there, big series. Now they're returning home from all that.
1:34:10
Speaker 2: It's the longest road trip return I think out of
1:34:12
Speaker 2: any team today. So you know me, I like to
1:34:14
Speaker 2: fade teams returning home from road trips. Even though they
1:34:16
Speaker 2: are facing the Cubs, who are a good team, they
1:34:19
Speaker 2: might get up for it still, but it's a bad spot. Man.
1:34:22
Speaker 2: Returning home from the road like that, you got to
1:34:25
Speaker 2: get back to family life might be a distraction. They're
1:34:28
Speaker 2: calling up the top pitching prospect in baseball Anderson. They
1:34:31
Speaker 2: actually brought them up from Double A. And I guess
1:34:33
Speaker 2: there's something where the Mariners, I guess, have their pitchers
1:34:36
Speaker 2: skip Triple A, skip all A because I guess Nipple A.
1:34:41
Speaker 2: I guess their Triple A park is at some high elevation,
1:34:44
Speaker 2: so they skip it. It doesn't make any sense to me, man,
1:34:48
Speaker 2: And I think there a Double A team is actually
1:34:50
Speaker 2: in Arkansas or something like that. I don't know, man,
1:34:53
Speaker 2: but they're calling them up. He's got really good numbers
1:34:56
Speaker 2: in Double A. But you know, going from Double A
1:34:58
Speaker 2: directly to the major pitching today. By the way, I'm
1:35:01
Speaker 2: just saying, it makes no sense to me to make
1:35:04
Speaker 2: this call up, like I would have at least had
1:35:06
Speaker 2: him pitching Triple A a little bit, because if you're pitching
1:35:09
Speaker 2: in that bad elevation environment, going from there to then
1:35:12
Speaker 2: Seattle should be a bit of a relief, you know
1:35:14
Speaker 2: what I mean, And you get to at least face
1:35:16
Speaker 2: Triple A competition. So I don't know, I don't know
1:35:19
Speaker 2: if I love this move. Plus the Mariners, what are
1:35:22
Speaker 2: their main issues? Their issues are hitting and bullpen. The
1:35:25
Speaker 2: hitting has been awful and their bullpend hasn't been that
1:35:28
Speaker 2: good either. They're starting pitching. They have one of the
1:35:30
Speaker 2: best rotations in baseball. Oh, let's call up a starting pitcher. Yeah,
1:35:34
Speaker 2: that makes sense. I don't get it. Man. However, I
1:35:37
Speaker 2: will say that the guy who's pitching that we're fading
1:35:39
Speaker 2: here in this game today is gonna be the guy
1:35:41
Speaker 2: that loses the spot in the rotation. If Anderson is
1:35:44
Speaker 2: going to join the rotation, I don't know if he
1:35:46
Speaker 2: will or if the Mariners might have him in the
1:35:48
Speaker 2: bullpen or they might do like a six man thing,
1:35:51
Speaker 2: So we'll see. But yeah, that might motivate Handcock in
1:35:54
Speaker 2: this game a little bit because I think if the
1:35:55
Speaker 2: Mariners are gonna remove one guy for the rotation, it's
1:35:58
Speaker 2: gonna be him, right Because it's not gonna to be Gilbert,
1:36:01
Speaker 2: who's probably their best picture right now. It's not gonna
1:36:03
Speaker 2: be Woo's borderline elite, even though he struggled on the
1:36:07
Speaker 2: road this year. Kirby is kind of a stable of
1:36:10
Speaker 2: the rotation. I don't think he's that good but I
1:36:12
Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna take him out of the rotation either,
1:36:15
Speaker 2: And then who else is in their rotation? Oh, Bryce Miller. Yeah,
1:36:19
Speaker 2: they're obviously not Yeah, they're obviously not taking him out either.
1:36:23
Speaker 2: So Miller has been one of their best pitchers, so yeah,
1:36:27
Speaker 2: so it would be handcocked. But whatever. It's an interesting scenario.
1:36:29
Speaker 2: But still I don't like the spot for Seattle. They
1:36:32
Speaker 2: are going from Central to Pacific, so they're having to
1:36:35
Speaker 2: adjust their biological clocks the same as Chicago does, so
1:36:38
Speaker 2: that's a wash, right. So even though yes, both teams
1:36:42
Speaker 2: are going going to have to adjust their biological clocks here,
1:36:47
Speaker 2: I think the spot sets up a lot better for Chicago.
1:36:49
Speaker 2: The Cubs had yesterday off and the Mariners didn't, so
1:36:52
Speaker 2: that's another advantage to the Cubs here. So that's why
1:36:55
Speaker 2: I like this. You're fading a team returning home from
1:36:57
Speaker 2: a road trip, which is a negative, and Seattle used
1:36:59
Speaker 2: three elite pitchers yesterday while the Cubs were off, so
1:37:03
Speaker 2: that means the Cubs have a little bit more time
1:37:05
Speaker 2: to adjust to the time zone as well. So I
1:37:07
Speaker 2: think bigger than Maris all around, man, they're making basically
1:37:11
Speaker 2: the same travel they're both Mariners are coming from Milwaukee,
1:37:15
Speaker 2: Cubs are coming from Chicago here, both having to adjust
1:37:18
Speaker 2: to the late night time here. Mariners had to play yesterday,
1:37:21
Speaker 2: Cubs did not. Cubs starting a road trip is usually
1:37:23
Speaker 2: a focused spot, especially after they got shut out at home.
1:37:26
Speaker 2: So that's another reason why I like the Cubs. You
1:37:28
Speaker 2: know what I talked about earlier in the show. A
1:37:31
Speaker 2: team that just got shut out at home a lot
1:37:33
Speaker 2: of times will bounce back and do better in their
1:37:35
Speaker 2: next game, So I like that for the Cubs. Usually
1:37:39
Speaker 2: the first game of a road trip is a focused
1:37:41
Speaker 2: spot here. So even though the Cubs are kind of
1:37:43
Speaker 2: just sitting there with not a whole lot of movement
1:37:46
Speaker 2: possible here, for the Cubs, they're very likely to wind
1:37:49
Speaker 2: up been second place in the NLS Central and wind
1:37:51
Speaker 2: up in the I believe, the top wildcard spot. Yes,
1:37:54
Speaker 2: in the National League. The Cubs are sitting pretty there.
1:37:58
Speaker 2: But yes, I know Seattle is desperate right now. I
1:38:02
Speaker 2: get that, And they lost yesterday. We played Seattle two
1:38:04
Speaker 2: days ago and got the win with that one. Seattle
1:38:07
Speaker 2: is in desperation mode, now, I get that. But this
1:38:10
Speaker 2: is not a good spot for them, and it's not
1:38:11
Speaker 2: a good pitching matchup for them either, and I think
1:38:13
Speaker 2: the Cubs have the better bullpen at this point. Theyuring
1:38:16
Speaker 2: thirteenth and bullpen the Mariners have struggled. They're nineteenth, so
1:38:20
Speaker 2: I think we'll get a bullpen edge here, especially given
1:38:22
Speaker 2: the rest scenario here. Offensively, the Cubs are without a doubt,
1:38:26
Speaker 2: way better. They're number three. Seattle's number twenty eight, tied
1:38:30
Speaker 2: with the Blue Jays, very battle though. Yes, this is
1:38:33
Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park here, but still better offense against
1:38:37
Speaker 2: the worst offense here. And we're gonna back Matthew Boyd
1:38:39
Speaker 2: here after the Cubs. I backed him once recently and
1:38:42
Speaker 2: he did get a win in that one. Maybe this
1:38:44
Speaker 2: is a spot to back him again. Man, even though
1:38:46
Speaker 2: he's been kind of mediocre four point two ERA one
1:38:49
Speaker 2: point two to four whip. He's had a little bit
1:38:51
Speaker 2: of a shortened season because of some injuries, but for
1:38:54
Speaker 2: whatever reason, he's way better on the road anyway. And
1:38:56
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a very picture friendly road ballpark here,
1:39:00
Speaker 2: two point five to seven Rodier Race, So yeah, he's
1:39:02
Speaker 2: definitely better on the road this year. I think we
1:39:05
Speaker 2: could back him on the road. He was off the
1:39:07
Speaker 2: last time out against Saint Louis. There's no question about that.
1:39:09
Speaker 2: He allowed a ton of home runs there. His home
1:39:12
Speaker 2: run rates have been bad recently, but that last start
1:39:15
Speaker 2: was at home. His last road start was pretty good
1:39:19
Speaker 2: at Kansas City, although he walked too many guys there.
1:39:22
Speaker 2: Storr before that was at home, and he was mediocre
1:39:25
Speaker 2: against the Dodgers. I would say that Saint Louis won.
1:39:27
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give him a pass for it, though, because
1:39:29
Speaker 2: Saint Louis had just seen him recently. He blew them
1:39:32
Speaker 2: away on the road, and he was pitching really well
1:39:35
Speaker 2: throughout the month of July. So I don't know what's
1:39:37
Speaker 2: going on with him in August right now, but I
1:39:39
Speaker 2: think if he's gonna bounce back and get out of
1:39:41
Speaker 2: this funk, which really is just one game here against
1:39:44
Speaker 2: a team that had just seen him, it's gonna be
1:39:47
Speaker 2: something like this where he gets to pitch against a
1:39:49
Speaker 2: very bad offense in a pitcher friendly ballpark. So I
1:39:52
Speaker 2: think it sets up nicely for Boyd to bounce back here,
1:39:55
Speaker 2: especially given that he's way better on the road this year,
1:39:57
Speaker 2: and you know what's coming here. He's good against Seattle
1:40:01
Speaker 2: in thirty one career bats. They only have one extra
1:40:03
Speaker 2: base hit, which is a home run from Big Dumper,
1:40:06
Speaker 2: who has the only dumping he's been doing recently is
1:40:10
Speaker 2: all over the field because he's been god awful. He
1:40:13
Speaker 2: went from MVP caliber last year sixty home run man,
1:40:18
Speaker 2: home run derby winner as well to absolute disaster. I
1:40:22
Speaker 2: have no idea what the deal is there, but whatever. Overall,
1:40:26
Speaker 2: Mariners have a two to twenty six average, six to
1:40:28
Speaker 2: seventeen obs, nine to three strike out walk ratio against Boyd,
1:40:32
Speaker 2: so I like how Boyd matches up here. Also, his
1:40:35
Speaker 2: overall numbers this season are not too bad, except his
1:40:37
Speaker 2: strike out rate going down is concerning. But he has
1:40:41
Speaker 2: a low hit rate. He doesn't really walk many guys.
1:40:43
Speaker 2: The strike out rate is a bit of an issue though,
1:40:45
Speaker 2: so I don't know what's going on with him there.
1:40:48
Speaker 2: His strike out walk ratio is still okay, but it's
1:40:50
Speaker 2: not as good as it was the last couple of years,
1:40:52
Speaker 2: so something. I don't know what's going on with it.
1:40:55
Speaker 2: He's got to figure something out because he has strike
1:40:57
Speaker 2: up for nine has gone down a bit, but I
1:40:59
Speaker 2: still like him in spot. So I say we back
1:41:02
Speaker 2: Boyd here and we fade the Mariners in a bad
1:41:04
Speaker 2: spot and we fade Emerson Handcock even though he's had
1:41:08
Speaker 2: a decent season, which is another reason why I was like,
1:41:09
Speaker 2: why are they calling up Anderson when the first man
1:41:13
Speaker 2: out of the rotation is going to be Handcock and
1:41:15
Speaker 2: he's got a three point three RA one point one
1:41:17
Speaker 2: to one WHIP and he's at least got experience over Anderson.
1:41:21
Speaker 2: So I don't know what the Mariners are doing. Man,
1:41:23
Speaker 2: They're making desperation moves here. Hancock's been good at home,
1:41:27
Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that. His overall numbers are good
1:41:29
Speaker 2: and he's got a three point one to three homye RA.
1:41:32
Speaker 2: He isn't better form than Boyd right now as well,
1:41:34
Speaker 2: because his last start was pretty good at Houston, although
1:41:37
Speaker 2: it started before that really wasn't good against Tampa Bay.
1:41:39
Speaker 2: He gave up a lot of hits and he got
1:41:41
Speaker 2: kind of lucky to escape that only along two runs.
1:41:45
Speaker 2: I was only mediocre against Detroit before that, so his
1:41:48
Speaker 2: last start was good, but prior to that, he wasn't
1:41:50
Speaker 2: really pitching that well. His hit rate is pretty good,
1:41:53
Speaker 2: his walk rate is pretty good, his strike out rate
1:41:55
Speaker 2: is okay, so he does have decent numbers here. Strike
1:41:58
Speaker 2: out walk ratio is by far the best that it's
1:42:01
Speaker 2: been in his career. So he is having a career
1:42:03
Speaker 2: year here in a way, and to strike out per
1:42:05
Speaker 2: nine has gone way up, so he's figured out how
1:42:08
Speaker 2: to strike guys out to some extent. However, he's going
1:42:11
Speaker 2: up against a really good Cub lineup here, and the
1:42:13
Speaker 2: Cubs have been able to get to him. In thirty
1:42:15
Speaker 2: two at bats two fifty average one OHPS, Cubs have
1:42:19
Speaker 2: four home runs off him, so the Cubs have been
1:42:22
Speaker 2: able to get to him a bit seven to one
1:42:24
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. I don't think the market's agreeing
1:42:27
Speaker 2: with me on this, and this is mostly about the spot,
1:42:30
Speaker 2: but I say we do it. I say we play
1:42:31
Speaker 2: the Cubs. I think we get the better matchup numbers.
1:42:34
Speaker 2: Also on the side of Boyd here, the money is
1:42:36
Speaker 2: agreeing with me now. Actually, so there you go, sixty
1:42:39
Speaker 2: five percent tickets, eighty two percent of the cash on
1:42:41
Speaker 2: the Cubs. That's why sometimes you gotta stick with your
1:42:44
Speaker 2: handicapping to some extent and then use this just as
1:42:47
Speaker 2: kind of like a check, you know what I mean.
1:42:49
Speaker 2: And sometimes I will still just fade these market reads.
1:42:51
Speaker 2: But I love seeing the market read come into line
1:42:54
Speaker 2: with what I'm thinking, because that means the professional money
1:42:56
Speaker 2: is agreeing with me. The line kind of flipped to
1:43:01
Speaker 2: Seattle being a slight favorite here, but you'll get a
1:43:03
Speaker 2: price like around this on the Cubs. I say, we
1:43:05
Speaker 2: do it sixty five percent of tickets eighty two percent
1:43:08
Speaker 2: of the cash on the Cubs. The money's also strongly
1:43:10
Speaker 2: back in the over eight here, which I could see that.
1:43:13
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not really an elite pitching matchup here,
1:43:16
Speaker 2: so maybe, but I don't love overs in Seattle, obviously
1:43:20
Speaker 2: because it's a pitcher friendly park. But yeah, Cubs will
1:43:23
Speaker 2: be my play there, and then we have one more game.
1:43:26
Speaker 2: This is a long fucking show. Not happy about this.
1:43:29
Speaker 2: The last game is Pittsburgh and the Dodgers. They both
1:43:31
Speaker 2: were off yesterday. The Dodgers are returning home, but only
1:43:35
Speaker 2: from a series in Colorado they swept. I mean, I
1:43:37
Speaker 2: don't think it's a big deal there. They're not returning
1:43:39
Speaker 2: home from a long road trip, so I don't consider
1:43:41
Speaker 2: it to be a really negative spot for them necessarily,
1:43:44
Speaker 2: And it's gonna be an easier time adjustment going from
1:43:47
Speaker 2: Mountain time to Pacific time, whereas Pittsburgh is having to
1:43:51
Speaker 2: come in from I believe the eastern time zone here,
1:43:54
Speaker 2: that's not good going east to west, so Pittsburgh's gonna
1:43:57
Speaker 2: have to do a big or biological clock shift here.
1:44:01
Speaker 2: So that's a negative for Pittsburgh. Plus, they're gonna be
1:44:03
Speaker 2: looking at a pitching matchup that definitely favors the Dodgers here.
1:44:08
Speaker 2: Dodgers bullpen wise, neither bullpen got used yesterday. What am
1:44:11
Speaker 2: I saying? Both teams are off. Dodgers' bullpen is number eleven.
1:44:14
Speaker 2: They're not great, but Pittsburgh is worse at twenty third,
1:44:18
Speaker 2: so you're looking at two kind of mediocre bullpens. I
1:44:20
Speaker 2: would say the Dodgers offensively are number one, again, not
1:44:25
Speaker 2: surprising there. Pittsburgh is pretty good as well at fourth,
1:44:28
Speaker 2: although pitters good hitting on the road, and believe it
1:44:31
Speaker 2: or not, the Dodgers are not as good at hitting
1:44:33
Speaker 2: at home, so there might be some room for maybe
1:44:36
Speaker 2: looking towards Unders in this series. I don't think I'd
1:44:39
Speaker 2: want to do it here, though, mostly because Bubba Chandler
1:44:42
Speaker 2: is pitching for Pittsburgh, and even though he is pitching
1:44:45
Speaker 2: fairly well right now and at the end of last season,
1:44:47
Speaker 2: he was really good for his last few starts and
1:44:50
Speaker 2: I think he will be good at some point. He
1:44:52
Speaker 2: has good strike up stuff. His walk numbers are still
1:44:56
Speaker 2: very concerning, so I still worry about that. Four point
1:44:59
Speaker 2: two to three for him, one point three to seven
1:45:01
Speaker 2: whip is not really that good. He's basically the same
1:45:05
Speaker 2: home and away. He has a worse home ray by
1:45:07
Speaker 2: a little bit, but his opponent batting average on the
1:45:09
Speaker 2: road is a little bit better. Not a lot to
1:45:11
Speaker 2: take away from Matt. He was pretty good against the
1:45:13
Speaker 2: Red Sox last time out. Pittsburgh has won his last
1:45:16
Speaker 2: three starts. He's been pretty good in all three of them.
1:45:19
Speaker 2: But he's still kind of walking guys here, which is
1:45:21
Speaker 2: definitely an issue, and that's been his main issue throughout
1:45:24
Speaker 2: his career so far. He doesn't allow that many hits.
1:45:27
Speaker 2: He walks too many, and his strike gut rate is
1:45:29
Speaker 2: actually kind of low for what I thought that it
1:45:32
Speaker 2: was going to be, like, I think last year his
1:45:34
Speaker 2: strike gout rate was a little bit better last year. Actually, well,
1:45:40
Speaker 2: that's kind of weird. Last year he actually didn't really
1:45:41
Speaker 2: walk anybody. I don't know what I was thinking. Last year. Yeah,
1:45:44
Speaker 2: he was good. Last year, he basically didn't walk anybody,
1:45:47
Speaker 2: So maybe that was a bit of a mirage because
1:45:50
Speaker 2: he didn't pitch that many innings last year, but yeah,
1:45:53
Speaker 2: this year, the walks have been a major issue for him.
1:45:56
Speaker 2: Strake up for nine is a little bit lower this year.
1:45:59
Speaker 2: Like I said, I his strikeout rate has gone down
1:46:01
Speaker 2: a little bit this year from what I thought it
1:46:03
Speaker 2: was going to be. I thought he was a better
1:46:04
Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher than this. But yeah, strake out walk ratio
1:46:08
Speaker 2: is way worse this year than it was last year,
1:46:10
Speaker 2: and it's because of the walks. So he's got to
1:46:12
Speaker 2: figure that out. His numbers against the Dodgers are not good,
1:46:16
Speaker 2: although they only have twelve at bats against him, six
1:46:18
Speaker 2: hitters have faced him four seventeen average, thirteen thirty three
1:46:22
Speaker 2: oh ps, one strikeout, no walks, so Chandler hasn't really
1:46:26
Speaker 2: been that good against the Dodgers. Yoshinoba Yamamoto is pitching
1:46:30
Speaker 2: for the Dodgers. He's obviously the more established and better
1:46:33
Speaker 2: starter here. Two point sixty RA point eight nine whip
1:46:37
Speaker 2: is really good. He's a little bit worse at home
1:46:39
Speaker 2: three point one to four homer RA, but still a
1:46:41
Speaker 2: below two hundred and pound a batting average at home.
1:46:44
Speaker 2: He's still pitching well right now. I don't think there
1:46:46
Speaker 2: are too many concerns with him here. Generally he's gonna
1:46:49
Speaker 2: pitch well when he goes out there. He has a
1:46:50
Speaker 2: really low hit rate. He doesn't really walk many guys either,
1:46:53
Speaker 2: strikes out a decent amount of guys, so his strike
1:46:56
Speaker 2: out walk ratio is pretty good. Strake up for nine
1:46:59
Speaker 2: is actually lower this year than it was the last
1:47:01
Speaker 2: two years, interestingly, so his strikeout stuff is kind of
1:47:04
Speaker 2: diminished a little bit, which is a little bit weird.
1:47:06
Speaker 2: But he's still bitching quite well. His numbers against the
1:47:10
Speaker 2: Pirates are pretty good in fifteen of bats, small sample
1:47:14
Speaker 2: again though, six hitters of base, but they have no
1:47:16
Speaker 2: extra base hits two hundred average, four to fifthy ops,
1:47:19
Speaker 2: five strikeouts, one walk. So the Dodgers seem to set
1:47:24
Speaker 2: up better in this game. In my opinion. Money's fading
1:47:28
Speaker 2: them ninety four percent of tickets, ninety percent of the
1:47:30
Speaker 2: cash on them there. They drop for minus two forty
1:47:32
Speaker 2: all the way down to about minus two twenty here,
1:47:34
Speaker 2: So some money is playing Pittsburgh here. I don't think
1:47:37
Speaker 2: I like it. I think the Dodgers do have the
1:47:39
Speaker 2: match up ed here. I don't think it's that bad
1:47:40
Speaker 2: of a return home spot or anything like that. I
1:47:43
Speaker 2: think the Dodgers might be still the way to look here.
1:47:46
Speaker 2: But if you do that, you gotta lay the run
1:47:47
Speaker 2: line and you're going against the market read, so I
1:47:50
Speaker 2: don't really want to do that. The money is also
1:47:52
Speaker 2: coming in in the over eight here, I'm not so
1:47:55
Speaker 2: sure about that either. Good pitching usually beats good hitting,
1:47:58
Speaker 2: and I think you will have good pitching on the
1:47:59
Speaker 2: one side with the Dodgers. I don't know about Pittsburgh
1:48:02
Speaker 2: with Chandler though, But if it's gonna be an over
1:48:05
Speaker 2: and you think the Dodgers are gonna win, I guess
1:48:06
Speaker 2: you could consider Dodgers over their team total and they're
1:48:10
Speaker 2: facing the weaker of the pitchers here, who hasn't really
1:48:13
Speaker 2: been that good against them. But I don't know, man,
1:48:16
Speaker 2: because I think the Dodgers in the return home spot
1:48:19
Speaker 2: with a day off, their offense might be a little
1:48:20
Speaker 2: bit cooled off. And if you do play them over
1:48:23
Speaker 2: their team total, I think you're gonna need him to
1:48:24
Speaker 2: get to six probably, which is a bit of a
1:48:28
Speaker 2: tall order. So I don't really want to do it.
1:48:31
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not one of the it's not the
1:48:33
Speaker 2: type of game that I am interested in all right.
1:48:36
Speaker 2: WNBA Minnesota Washington interesting matchup here. Minnesota is not favored
1:48:41
Speaker 2: by that much, but I will say it's because Collier
1:48:44
Speaker 2: is getting a rest game here and Olivia Miles is
1:48:47
Speaker 2: actually hurt, but it looks like she is probable. So
1:48:50
Speaker 2: Miles is playing in this game. She is Minnesota's rookie
1:48:53
Speaker 2: who is definitely gonna win Rookie of the Year. Collier,
1:48:56
Speaker 2: who's one of the best players in basketball, in women
1:49:00
Speaker 2: in basketball, excuse me, She's getting a rest day from Minnesota.
1:49:04
Speaker 2: So that's why they were initially gonna be a six
1:49:05
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite, and now they're a two
1:49:07
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. That's because Collier is out.
1:49:12
Speaker 2: So I don't really want to try to fade Minnesota
1:49:14
Speaker 2: at that lower price, like I was thinking maybe Washington here,
1:49:17
Speaker 2: and the money agrees with that, seventy seven percent of
1:49:19
Speaker 2: tickets on Minnesota, fifty seven percent of the cash on Washington.
1:49:23
Speaker 2: You have a really low total in this game at
1:49:25
Speaker 2: one sixty. Both these first two games both have low
1:49:28
Speaker 2: totals one sixty four and a half. You know, I
1:49:31
Speaker 2: look to look towards underdogs with low totals because the
1:49:34
Speaker 2: points are worth more and Washington is a good defense.
1:49:37
Speaker 2: So getting a good defense at home getting points, I
1:49:40
Speaker 2: do like that type of scenario, but getting fewer points
1:49:44
Speaker 2: now because Collier is gonna be out. It's possible the
1:49:46
Speaker 2: line overreacted a little bit to that and maybe Minnesota
1:49:49
Speaker 2: will step up a little bit more. So I don't
1:49:51
Speaker 2: really love that. Although I don't necessarily love the spot
1:49:54
Speaker 2: for Minnesota here, you know, I still think it's kind
1:49:56
Speaker 2: of a negative spot for them. They're on fire. I mean,
1:49:59
Speaker 2: everybody knows that the best team in the league. Whatever.
1:50:01
Speaker 2: They just beat Vegas and then follow that up with
1:50:03
Speaker 2: a win over Golden State, where I thought Golden State
1:50:06
Speaker 2: had a good chance to win that game and that
1:50:08
Speaker 2: didn't happen. Now Minnesota's having to travel all the way
1:50:11
Speaker 2: across the country to finish this road trip in Washington,
1:50:14
Speaker 2: and then they play Golden State again when they come
1:50:17
Speaker 2: back home. So it is kind of a sandwich spot here.
1:50:20
Speaker 2: So I don't love the spot from Minnesota coming off
1:50:22
Speaker 2: two big wins and then they have that other big
1:50:24
Speaker 2: game coming up against Golden State. So I was thinking
1:50:27
Speaker 2: Washington might be a play here, and the market Reid
1:50:30
Speaker 2: agrees with it. It's just I don't want to do
1:50:31
Speaker 2: it at the lower number, you know what I mean?
1:50:34
Speaker 2: With Collier being out here, I'm just gonna stay on
1:50:36
Speaker 2: the sidelines for it. Man, another day where I'm not
1:50:38
Speaker 2: gonna have a WNBA play. Just is what it is.
1:50:41
Speaker 2: But if you force me, I would still say I
1:50:43
Speaker 2: guess I would take the points with Washington here, but
1:50:46
Speaker 2: you could have gotten three to three and a half
1:50:48
Speaker 2: this morning and now it's like two to two and
1:50:49
Speaker 2: a half. I don't know. I don't love it. Washington
1:50:54
Speaker 2: is in the better spot though Washington's staying at home.
1:50:58
Speaker 2: They just beat Toronto who came, so the spot is
1:51:02
Speaker 2: better for Washington for sure. Golden State at Chicago. Chicago
1:51:07
Speaker 2: just beat the Liberty in a return home spot nonetheless,
1:51:11
Speaker 2: so Chicago is coming off a big game. And while
1:51:13
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna overlook Golden State, but that
1:51:16
Speaker 2: was a big win for them over New York. And
1:51:18
Speaker 2: they do have Indiana next too, which is always big
1:51:21
Speaker 2: because they get a lot of hype and it's a
1:51:23
Speaker 2: national TV game on NBC. So I don't know, man,
1:51:26
Speaker 2: I don't love the spot for Chicago. They shouldn't overlook
1:51:30
Speaker 2: Golden State, but I don't want to play on them
1:51:32
Speaker 2: after coming off an upset win over New York and
1:51:35
Speaker 2: with Indiana next potentially maybe being a bigger game in
1:51:38
Speaker 2: their minds. I don't know, man, So I don't necessarily
1:51:41
Speaker 2: love that. I don't love the spot for Golden State
1:51:43
Speaker 2: really either, because they just lost a win streak and
1:51:47
Speaker 2: they're in a Minnesota sandwich. They're in a juicy lucy,
1:51:50
Speaker 2: which sounds way worse when it's in a women's sport. Gross,
1:51:55
Speaker 2: unless it's beach volleyball, then give me all the juicy
1:51:58
Speaker 2: Lucy's juicy lucy. That's a yeah that describes beach volleyball
1:52:06
Speaker 2: women's asses. Actually Golden State, I used six or excuse me,
1:52:11
Speaker 2: they lost a six. I'm still in baseball mode. They
1:52:13
Speaker 2: lost a six game win streak, and you know I
1:52:15
Speaker 2: talked about this when a team loses a win streak,
1:52:17
Speaker 2: especially in a big game like that against Minnesota. Although
1:52:20
Speaker 2: the game wasn't really close, they didn't come close to
1:52:22
Speaker 2: winning it, but still they lost a six game win
1:52:26
Speaker 2: streak in a big game, and a lot of times
1:52:28
Speaker 2: that will hang you over into the next game, and
1:52:30
Speaker 2: while they are starting a road trip, it usually is
1:52:32
Speaker 2: a focused spot. They play Minnesota again next. Like I said,
1:52:36
Speaker 2: it's a Minnesota sandwich. It's a much bigger game up next,
1:52:39
Speaker 2: So it's a bad spot for Golden State. It's a
1:52:42
Speaker 2: sandwich spot plus the potential hangover off losing the win streak.
1:52:46
Speaker 2: I can't really get on board with Chicago after they
1:52:49
Speaker 2: beat New York, but Chicago would be the only way
1:52:53
Speaker 2: I'd be able to play this though. I think it's
1:52:55
Speaker 2: a worse spot for Golden State, you know, and having
1:52:59
Speaker 2: to travel here while Chicago stays at home. Golden State
1:53:02
Speaker 2: six and a half point favorite here, or it looks
1:53:05
Speaker 2: like some books have about a six year they're very public,
1:53:08
Speaker 2: ninety one percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
1:53:11
Speaker 2: on them. Golden State also more of a defensive team
1:53:13
Speaker 2: than an offensive team, in my opinion, and the odds
1:53:16
Speaker 2: makers tell you that the total is even lower. In
1:53:19
Speaker 2: this game, it won sixty three and a half one
1:53:20
Speaker 2: sixty two and a half. So again, taking points with
1:53:23
Speaker 2: the home team makes a lot of sense with a
1:53:26
Speaker 2: low total like that, especially when you're getting a lot
1:53:28
Speaker 2: of points like that six and a half and the
1:53:32
Speaker 2: team that's that you're fading is more of a depfensive
1:53:35
Speaker 2: team and on the road yeah, I like Chicago in
1:53:38
Speaker 2: that one, but I can't do it. It's I don't
1:53:40
Speaker 2: really love the spot for either team. The money is
1:53:42
Speaker 2: playing the over for whatever that's where, and sometimes that
1:53:45
Speaker 2: is the way to look when two teams might have
1:53:47
Speaker 2: issues focusing or might have some issues with defensive fatigue.
1:53:53
Speaker 2: So maybe, but yeah, I would play Chicago in this
1:53:56
Speaker 2: one if I was gonna play it, taking the points
1:53:58
Speaker 2: there and again, yeah, you're fading the public again in
1:54:01
Speaker 2: that one. Now it's ninety four percent of tickets eighty
1:54:04
Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Golden State. And then
1:54:06
Speaker 2: we have the ugly matchup of the two expansion teams,
1:54:10
Speaker 2: Portland and Toronto, and it looks too easy to play Portland.
1:54:15
Speaker 2: Portland's a favorite even though they're on the road. So
1:54:17
Speaker 2: the oddsmaker's telling you Portland is the better of these
1:54:19
Speaker 2: two teams, but they have a better record by enough
1:54:22
Speaker 2: that it looks way too easy to play Portland. In
1:54:24
Speaker 2: my opinion. Toronto's playing really, really poorly though they've lost
1:54:28
Speaker 2: I don't know how many games in a row. This
1:54:30
Speaker 2: is at this point twelve. They've lost twelve games in
1:54:34
Speaker 2: a row and they just went to Washington. Now they're
1:54:36
Speaker 2: coming back home again. They're playing a third game in
1:54:38
Speaker 2: four days, though that's really difficult to do with travel
1:54:42
Speaker 2: between every game. They did lose in Portland not too
1:54:45
Speaker 2: long ago, and they played Portland otherwise. They lost at
1:54:49
Speaker 2: home to Portland earlier this year. I think those are
1:54:51
Speaker 2: the only two. I think they're zero and two against
1:54:53
Speaker 2: Portland this year. But even though they might get up
1:54:55
Speaker 2: for this because in Portland had overlooked them, right because
1:54:58
Speaker 2: Portland's already beat in Toronto twice. Toronto's been awful recently.
1:55:02
Speaker 2: But I don't want to play on a team that's
1:55:03
Speaker 2: playing the third game in four DA's man, which is
1:55:06
Speaker 2: a rarity in the WNBA. I don't want to do it.
1:55:09
Speaker 2: Portland is playing better basketball right now, however, I think
1:55:12
Speaker 2: maybe they look a little bit better than they really are.
1:55:14
Speaker 2: Their defense still sucks. Both of these DEFENSI suck. Portland's
1:55:18
Speaker 2: won four of the last five games, but those wins
1:55:21
Speaker 2: were against Toronto, Seattle twice, and then Phoenix was the
1:55:24
Speaker 2: best win they had, which was their last game. But
1:55:26
Speaker 2: they're also way more rested. They haven't played since Sunday,
1:55:30
Speaker 2: so Portland has a huge rest that year, and that's
1:55:32
Speaker 2: part of the reason why they're favored by as much
1:55:35
Speaker 2: as they are. Oh god, this is just such an
1:55:38
Speaker 2: ugly game, dude. It looks way too easy to play Portland.
1:55:42
Speaker 2: They got seventy five percent of tickets, ninety percent of
1:55:44
Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're at two and a half.
1:55:48
Speaker 2: I think I would lean Toronto, but oh god, I
1:55:51
Speaker 2: mean they have such a rest disadvantage. I don't want
1:55:54
Speaker 2: to do it, man, even though nobody's gonna want them.
1:55:56
Speaker 2: It looks way too easy to play Portland. I think
1:55:58
Speaker 2: Portland looks better better than they really are because the
1:56:01
Speaker 2: wins recently have mostly been against bad teams. It is
1:56:03
Speaker 2: a little bit of a revenge spot for Toronto, if
1:56:06
Speaker 2: that means anything. I might at least mean Portland might
1:56:09
Speaker 2: overlooked them a little bit. Portland is playing Washington next,
1:56:12
Speaker 2: which is a better team at least, so maybe they
1:56:15
Speaker 2: do look ahead to that a little bit. But yeah,
1:56:18
Speaker 2: I can't do it, but maybe slightly into Toronto here
1:56:20
Speaker 2: for me. I mean, it looks like the type of
1:56:23
Speaker 2: game that should be an over. But the total is
1:56:25
Speaker 2: crashed from one eighty six and a half down to
1:56:27
Speaker 2: one eighty two and a half. Oddsmakers are onto it.
1:56:29
Speaker 2: I mean they know these are too bad defenses and
1:56:33
Speaker 2: these two teams are going nowhere as we play out
1:56:35
Speaker 2: the stretch here, We're getting close to the end of
1:56:36
Speaker 2: the season WNBA, so the oddsmakers kind of know this
1:56:40
Speaker 2: is going to be more of a scrimmage type of game.
1:56:43
Speaker 2: It's two bad teams that are going nowhere and they
1:56:45
Speaker 2: don't have good defenses. So usually that's the type of
1:56:48
Speaker 2: game it's gonna result in an over. But the total
1:56:51
Speaker 2: has dropped and the money looks like it is actually
1:56:54
Speaker 2: indicating on the under here. I don't know about that.
1:56:56
Speaker 2: I mean I would slightly lean over there, but yeah,
1:56:59
Speaker 2: I don't have a good and that is it for
1:57:01
Speaker 2: the WNBA, and we have some NFL stuff. Raiders pulled
1:57:06
Speaker 2: that win out of their ass yesterday, and they should
1:57:09
Speaker 2: have won more easily in my opinion. I mean, if
1:57:11
Speaker 2: you saw early in the game, Houston scored immediately, but
1:57:14
Speaker 2: then Vegas was driving with no problem at all driving
1:57:19
Speaker 2: down the field, and then Mendoza threw a pick six
1:57:22
Speaker 2: in the red zone, it was gonna be at least
1:57:25
Speaker 2: at worst, it was gonna be a seven to three
1:57:28
Speaker 2: Houston lead over Vegas. If Vegas was at least gonna
1:57:31
Speaker 2: score a field goal. Probably they were gonna score a
1:57:33
Speaker 2: touchdown the way they were going. Instead they throw it
1:57:35
Speaker 2: back the other way, and all of a sudden, what
1:57:37
Speaker 2: would have been maybe a seven to seven game is
1:57:39
Speaker 2: now fourteen nothing. Yeah, so whatever, and they still wound
1:57:43
Speaker 2: up winning anyway. The late night game, I was way
1:57:45
Speaker 2: off on San Francisco scored a shit ton, and I
1:57:48
Speaker 2: guess it was because of their I don't know, they
1:57:51
Speaker 2: decided to roll out their other quarterbacks and see what
1:57:54
Speaker 2: they have with their other quarterbacks. It's really hard to
1:57:56
Speaker 2: figure out what these teams are gonna do here, man,
1:57:58
Speaker 2: And some of these quarterbacks have already got injured too.
1:58:00
Speaker 2: I think one of the quarterbacks on the teams last night,
1:58:04
Speaker 2: I think got injured, like for the season already. I
1:58:07
Speaker 2: forget who it was. If it was one of the
1:58:10
Speaker 2: Raiders qbs, let me say, no, I don't. I don't
1:58:16
Speaker 2: even know who it was. It must have been one
1:58:18
Speaker 2: of Houston's qbs. I'm just looking real quick because I
1:58:22
Speaker 2: want to refresh my memory. Yeah, it was Graham Mertz,
1:58:24
Speaker 2: that's right. He tore his acl or something absolutely ridiculous
1:58:29
Speaker 2: when they were trying to see what they had out
1:58:31
Speaker 2: of him. But yeah, whatever. So anyway, tonight's games we
1:58:35
Speaker 2: have NFL Network doublehead of The first game is Jets
1:58:39
Speaker 2: and Steelers, I mean whatever. I guess the Steelers won
1:58:43
Speaker 2: their first game in a blowout of the Packers, which
1:58:46
Speaker 2: I was right about that. I like the Steelers to
1:58:48
Speaker 2: come out with some energy because the Steelers have a
1:58:51
Speaker 2: new coach, and usually the teams of the new coach
1:58:54
Speaker 2: play better in that first preseason game. In this game,
1:58:58
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the Steelers seem to really
1:59:00
Speaker 2: like Drew Aller. I never liked him when he was
1:59:03
Speaker 2: at Penn State, but maybe it was the system at
1:59:05
Speaker 2: Penn State and that's why they fired James Franklin. Maybe
1:59:09
Speaker 2: a little bit of a preview for my college football
1:59:13
Speaker 2: preview that I'm gonna do soon. Bet Drew Aller might
1:59:16
Speaker 2: get this. Will Howard is still young, so the Steelers
1:59:19
Speaker 2: might unleash this offense a little bit because they might
1:59:23
Speaker 2: just want to see more of what they have with
1:59:24
Speaker 2: these guys. Mason Rudolph has the experience Rogers I don't
1:59:28
Speaker 2: expect to get in this game, but we'll see. Rudolph
1:59:31
Speaker 2: at least has some experience for the Jets. I mean,
1:59:35
Speaker 2: I don't know how seriously they're going to be taking
1:59:37
Speaker 2: this thing. They don't even have a new coach. Aaron
1:59:39
Speaker 2: Glenn is still there. I don't even know why. But
1:59:42
Speaker 2: they do have Club Nick, I guess is their number
1:59:44
Speaker 2: two qbing now, so I guess they will bring him
1:59:46
Speaker 2: out there and see what they have with him. And
1:59:48
Speaker 2: then Brady Cook is still young and Zappi is whatever.
1:59:51
Speaker 2: He's been in the league for a while. But maybe
1:59:53
Speaker 2: the Jets will kind of roll out some offensive scheming
1:59:58
Speaker 2: to try to figure out, like, see what they have
1:59:59
Speaker 2: at these two guys, and they'll they'll let them cook
2:00:02
Speaker 2: pun intended maybe, And I don't think Geno Smith. Maybe
2:00:06
Speaker 2: Geno Smith will get into the game a little bit.
2:00:08
Speaker 2: I don't really know. I don't have a good feel
2:00:10
Speaker 2: for this game at all.
2:00:11
Speaker 3: Though.
2:00:13
Speaker 2: The money seems to be back in the under and
2:00:15
Speaker 2: we have seventy six percent of tickets seventy five percent
2:00:17
Speaker 2: of the cash on Pittsburgh, So the money is indicating
2:00:20
Speaker 2: on the Jets. Pittsburgh is favored, or excusely the Jets
2:00:23
Speaker 2: are favored. Pittsburgh's a public side. I think the public
2:00:27
Speaker 2: is just looking at this. Why would the public ever
2:00:29
Speaker 2: play the Jets, you know what I mean, they're looking
2:00:31
Speaker 2: at this and thinking, how am I getting Pittsburgh as
2:00:33
Speaker 2: an underdog? Basically, but this is preseason, man, some teams
2:00:37
Speaker 2: will be the better, like a lot of the better
2:00:39
Speaker 2: teams just won't be motivated. I don't know if I'd
2:00:42
Speaker 2: really want to come in and try to play the
2:00:43
Speaker 2: Jets here. I mean, to me, this game almost seems
2:00:46
Speaker 2: like more of an over to me. And the total
2:00:48
Speaker 2: is a little bit higher, although the money's coming in
2:00:50
Speaker 2: on the under. The total is at thirty nine and
2:00:51
Speaker 2: a half, and usually you see these preseason game or no,
2:00:55
Speaker 2: it actually drops. Sorry, it did drop to thirty seven
2:00:58
Speaker 2: and a half after it opened thirty nine and a half.
2:01:01
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't do much with totals here,
2:01:02
Speaker 2: but to me, it seems like these offenses might actually
2:01:05
Speaker 2: want to see what they have with these quarterbacks, so
2:01:08
Speaker 2: they might actually be trying to score here. I don't know, man,
2:01:12
Speaker 2: it's tough to gauge. These preseason games tend to all
2:01:14
Speaker 2: have low totals, and then you have to kind of
2:01:16
Speaker 2: figure out which offensees are gonna go vanilla in which one.
2:01:19
Speaker 2: And I was definitely wrong about the San Fran and
2:01:22
Speaker 2: Chargers game. So do with that invo what you want,
2:01:26
Speaker 2: I guess, but I'm trying to think. I think, oh,
2:01:32
Speaker 2: I was gonna say. Yeah. One thing that I did
2:01:34
Speaker 2: get wrong is Ryan's the coach for Houston. He does
2:01:36
Speaker 2: actually try to win preseason games, so I did have
2:01:39
Speaker 2: that a little bit misgauge on the Vegas still won.
2:01:42
Speaker 2: ESPN Unlimited has Carolina and Jacksonville the Battle of the Cats.
2:01:46
Speaker 2: I think these were the two expansion teams that came
2:01:48
Speaker 2: out at the same time when I was a kid,
2:01:50
Speaker 2: if I remember that correctly. Jacksonville won their first preseason
2:01:54
Speaker 2: game against the Saints, which I actually thought. I kind
2:01:56
Speaker 2: of liked the Saints in that one. And Carolina has
2:01:59
Speaker 2: already played twice because they played the Hall of Fame
2:02:02
Speaker 2: game beating the Cardinals, and then they lost to the
2:02:04
Speaker 2: Bills in their last preseason game. I don't put much
2:02:07
Speaker 2: wede into any of that, but I look at like,
2:02:09
Speaker 2: what are the what are the rotations gonna be here?
2:02:13
Speaker 2: Both of these teams don't have new coaches here, I
2:02:15
Speaker 2: don't believe, so they're not gonna be doing anything that crazy.
2:02:19
Speaker 2: I don't think Haines King is questionable for Carolina, Bryce Young,
2:02:23
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's gonna get out there all.
2:02:24
Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett probably will see a decent amount of action
2:02:27
Speaker 2: here a though I don't think he's that good, but
2:02:29
Speaker 2: he is experienced, but they probably keep it a bit
2:02:31
Speaker 2: vanilla for him. Haines King, they will not keep it
2:02:34
Speaker 2: vanilla for him. They like to see what he has
2:02:36
Speaker 2: because he's a dual threat quarterback and he's injured right now.
2:02:41
Speaker 2: He's questionable. So I think a lot of this hinges
2:02:43
Speaker 2: on how much is King gonna play in this game,
2:02:45
Speaker 2: if at all, because I think the more he plays
2:02:47
Speaker 2: in this game, the more offense you're gonna get out
2:02:49
Speaker 2: of Carolina, because they're gonna unleash him again probably and
2:02:52
Speaker 2: see what he has. And then they have Trask. I
2:02:54
Speaker 2: don't really know much about him, but I think it
2:02:56
Speaker 2: comes down to how much is Haines King gonna play,
2:02:59
Speaker 2: and that will If he's gonna play more, it's gonna
2:03:02
Speaker 2: make me like Carolina a little bit more and like
2:03:04
Speaker 2: the over a little bit more. And as far as Jacksonville,
2:03:08
Speaker 2: I mean, we know Trevor Lawrence is their guy. I
2:03:11
Speaker 2: don't expect him to be in this game for much
2:03:13
Speaker 2: if at all, but they have kind of a boring
2:03:15
Speaker 2: quarterback rotation. I'm sorry, but Nick Mullins, I mean, he's
2:03:19
Speaker 2: been in the league for a while. I don't think
2:03:20
Speaker 2: they really have much to see with him here. I
2:03:24
Speaker 2: don't know who Bradley and Aggie are really are. I mean,
2:03:26
Speaker 2: maybe Aguilar. Maybe they want to try to showcase them
2:03:30
Speaker 2: a little bit and see what they have with them.
2:03:32
Speaker 2: I have no idea, but I don't know. I mean,
2:03:35
Speaker 2: to me, this seems like it's Carolina is the side
2:03:37
Speaker 2: in this one. But again, it's preseason. It's really hard
2:03:40
Speaker 2: to figure it out. Seventy nine percent of tickets, sixty
2:03:43
Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on the Jags, Carolina is
2:03:45
Speaker 2: the favorite. It seems like nobody wants Carolina. Everybody's high
2:03:48
Speaker 2: on Jacksonville, man, because they were. They had that unexpectedly
2:03:52
Speaker 2: good year last year. Though I said, I thought Jacksonville
2:03:56
Speaker 2: was the play to make as far as winning that
2:03:58
Speaker 2: division last year, and they did. And I kind of
2:04:00
Speaker 2: think they take a little bit of a step back
2:04:02
Speaker 2: this year, to be honest, because I think they overperformed
2:04:04
Speaker 2: a little bit too much. Although I'm not really high
2:04:06
Speaker 2: on Carolina this year, I think Carolina overperformed last year too, though,
2:04:10
Speaker 2: But in this game, the public likes Jacksonville. Here they
2:04:14
Speaker 2: were a two and a half point favorite, and now
2:04:16
Speaker 2: Carolina is a one and a half point favorite. But yeah,
2:04:18
Speaker 2: I would lean Carolina if you're gonna play that one.
2:04:21
Speaker 2: And then green Bay and Denver. Green Bay got smoked
2:04:25
Speaker 2: in their first game and a lot of times in
2:04:27
Speaker 2: the prese even though it's preseason teams that do that badly,
2:04:30
Speaker 2: which I forgot to mention that when handicapping the other
2:04:33
Speaker 2: games that we talked about. Yet the ones that we
2:04:35
Speaker 2: talked about yesterday, which Houston fell into this category. A
2:04:39
Speaker 2: lot of times when teams do bad in their first
2:04:41
Speaker 2: preseason game, they do a lot better in their next
2:04:43
Speaker 2: preseason game after that because they still I mean you
2:04:47
Speaker 2: want to I mean, you're you're embarrassed, you know what
2:04:49
Speaker 2: I mean when you go out there and you don't
2:04:51
Speaker 2: have a good game, even if it's a game, it's
2:04:52
Speaker 2: a little bit meaningless. So maybe green Bay will have
2:04:55
Speaker 2: a better goal of it here. But Denver Sean Payton,
2:04:58
Speaker 2: he tries to win. Man. I thought the Falcons had
2:05:01
Speaker 2: a better setup in that game with the quarterback rotation. Nah,
2:05:04
Speaker 2: the Falcons are terrible in that game. Tua was awful.
2:05:08
Speaker 2: Pennix is very like. I think Pennix is going to
2:05:11
Speaker 2: wind up being the starter for the Falcons at some point,
2:05:14
Speaker 2: not in the not too distant future, but I don't know.
2:05:17
Speaker 2: I mean he was last year too, Tua. I don't
2:05:21
Speaker 2: know if Tua was ever even actually good, to be honest.
2:05:25
Speaker 2: But Sean Payton, what we know about him is he
2:05:27
Speaker 2: tries to win in the preseason. I believe he's on
2:05:30
Speaker 2: some sort of win streak again in the preseason, so
2:05:33
Speaker 2: he's gonna try to win this game. But I think
2:05:35
Speaker 2: Green Bay might try to win it as well because
2:05:37
Speaker 2: they had an ugly loss to the Steelers. So this
2:05:41
Speaker 2: game possibly an over, but the total is the highest
2:05:45
Speaker 2: on the board at forty and a half or thirty
2:05:47
Speaker 2: nine and a half. But the Oswegers are telling you something,
2:05:50
Speaker 2: and the money is strongly indicating on the over in
2:05:52
Speaker 2: this one, and I think that might be the right
2:05:54
Speaker 2: way to do it. But it's already gone up through
2:05:56
Speaker 2: the key number of forty one to forty one and
2:05:59
Speaker 2: a half, So if you want the you've already missed
2:06:01
Speaker 2: the boat on it, like I would have done it.
2:06:04
Speaker 2: You know, if you're gonna do it. I would have
2:06:05
Speaker 2: tried to do it below forty one when it was
2:06:07
Speaker 2: still thirty nine to forty, you know, because in football,
2:06:10
Speaker 2: forty one is a key number. But the oddsmakers and
2:06:13
Speaker 2: the professionals all seem to think this will be a
2:06:15
Speaker 2: higher scoring game, and maybe that will be the case.
2:06:18
Speaker 2: These offenses might show up with a little bit more
2:06:22
Speaker 2: doing a little bit more after those well, because Sean
2:06:24
Speaker 2: Payton just wants to win. But green Bay after there,
2:06:28
Speaker 2: they were a bit embarrassed in their first game. Although
2:06:30
Speaker 2: green Bay doesn't really have much to showcase though maybe
2:06:33
Speaker 2: with Kyle McCord. But you're gonna see a lot of
2:06:34
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor probably, but he is a dual threat quarterback
2:06:38
Speaker 2: and he has to be a little bit thrown off
2:06:41
Speaker 2: by the dual threat. Although Denver does have a good
2:06:43
Speaker 2: deepfense obviously, but I don't know how many defensive starters
2:06:46
Speaker 2: are really gonna play that much in this game. And Denver,
2:06:49
Speaker 2: I mean, they don't really have much to showcase either,
2:06:51
Speaker 2: so that does worry me a little. They have Stidham
2:06:53
Speaker 2: and Ellinger Eeling or however pronounce his name whatever, but
2:06:58
Speaker 2: they're both experienced quarterback I think Stidham is a little
2:07:01
Speaker 2: bit underrated. Denver is getting the money. He's sixty four
2:07:04
Speaker 2: percent of taket seventy two percent of the cash on them.
2:07:06
Speaker 2: They're up to a six point favorite. I I don't
2:07:10
Speaker 2: really agree with that. I think in preseason laying an
2:07:13
Speaker 2: amount of points like that is just ridiculous because the
2:07:15
Speaker 2: total is always still on the lower side and getting
2:07:19
Speaker 2: points is just always there's more value there. So I
2:07:23
Speaker 2: don't know, I mean taking the points makes a little
2:07:25
Speaker 2: more sense. I think the over makes the most sense
2:07:27
Speaker 2: in that game still, And that's it. Man. Finally, the
2:07:31
Speaker 2: end of the show. Way too long of a show today,
2:07:36
Speaker 2: dirty sock. Yes, Gino Smith went to West Virginia. I mean,
2:07:41
Speaker 2: I don't know, why wouldn't he hang run? He was
2:07:43
Speaker 2: a starter last year for the Raiders, did not have
2:07:47
Speaker 2: a good season, but the Raiders system is also complete shit.
2:07:50
Speaker 2: I mean Smith was a capable ish quarterback when he
2:07:55
Speaker 2: was in the Seahawks system. I don't think he's actually good,
2:07:58
Speaker 2: but he's good enough to start on various NFL teams,
2:08:03
Speaker 2: and he's he's on a team that has that has
2:08:05
Speaker 2: nobody better, or he's on the Jets, right, Yeah, they
2:08:08
Speaker 2: don't have anybody better, so unless one of their newcomers
2:08:13
Speaker 2: rises to the occasion. Brady Cook didn't look good when
2:08:16
Speaker 2: he got into those NFL games, though, maybe Club Nick
2:08:19
Speaker 2: has something. But Club Nick did not have a good
2:08:21
Speaker 2: season with Clemson last year either, So I don't really know.
2:08:25
Speaker 2: The Jets are ass I mean, they're just such a
2:08:28
Speaker 2: bad organization. They never have like even when they do
2:08:32
Speaker 2: have talent, they don't use it appropriately, and they seem
2:08:35
Speaker 2: to never really have a good quarterback where when they do,
2:08:37
Speaker 2: like Aaron Rodgers, he gets injured immediately. So I don't
2:08:40
Speaker 2: know that's gonna do it. My two plays today are
2:08:44
Speaker 2: under seven and a half in Angels Rangers. We're going
2:08:47
Speaker 2: all baseball again as usual, Cubs money line. Those are
2:08:50
Speaker 2: my two plays today. Let's have another winning day here man. Yeah,
2:08:56
Speaker 2: that's all I got to say. Learn a tone on Twitter,
2:08:58
Speaker 2: learn a tone on Instagram, like subscribe to that you
2:09:00
Speaker 2: here and you'll get notified when I go live college.
2:09:03
Speaker 2: When does college football actually start? Because I got to
2:09:05
Speaker 2: do the college football preview before that. Let me see
2:09:10
Speaker 2: college football first game is I'm looking at this. They
2:09:14
Speaker 2: always have the stupid Week zero thing with the Ireland
2:09:17
Speaker 2: game and whatever the heck I'm looking at week one here.
2:09:20
Speaker 2: What Oh they're calling it week one now, is that right? Yeah?
2:09:25
Speaker 2: I think that's right. It looks like it's Saturday the
2:09:27
Speaker 2: twenty ninth, Yeah, because I see the Ireland game where
2:09:30
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick is going to have to go out there
2:09:32
Speaker 2: for that one in a possible revenge game against TCU.
2:09:37
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'll talk about those games then, but
2:09:41
Speaker 2: I got to do the the College Football preview, I mean,
2:09:43
Speaker 2: and then I'll do another NFL preview probably, but subscribe
2:09:47
Speaker 2: and you'll get notified when I go live. We're also
2:09:49
Speaker 2: on audio Apple, Spotify Spreaker numbers going up a little
2:09:53
Speaker 2: bit there, so I am happy about that at least,
2:09:54
Speaker 2: but they need to be way better. People don't want
2:09:57
Speaker 2: to listen to me rambling man, But I think the
2:10:00
Speaker 2: information's good on the show. Obviously, it's translating into wins here,
2:10:03
Speaker 2: and that's been the case since I've started the show,
2:10:05
Speaker 2: although I haven't tracked the number on a bann or
2:10:09
Speaker 2: like that until recently. If you follow me an Action
2:10:12
Speaker 2: Network or whatever, all the picks that I can have
2:10:13
Speaker 2: it on the show throughout the entire history of the show.
2:10:17
Speaker 2: We're all on there so and it goes I think
2:10:19
Speaker 2: earlier than that too. H Actually, I don't know. Maybe
2:10:23
Speaker 2: I don't want to say that without knowing for sure,
2:10:25
Speaker 2: but at least most of the picks I've going on
2:10:27
Speaker 2: the show, I forget which one I did first. Did
2:10:29
Speaker 2: I start Action Network first or the show first? I
2:10:32
Speaker 2: actually forget anyway covered in Yuke on YouTube my Yuke channel,
2:10:36
Speaker 2: you can check that out out. I've done a couple
2:10:38
Speaker 2: of Weezer covers for the new album that was released today,
2:10:42
Speaker 2: which I actually do like. You know, they've been a
2:10:46
Speaker 2: real mixed bag, but they're one of my favorite bands
2:10:48
Speaker 2: and I will see be seeing them in September. What
2:10:53
Speaker 2: else paground Dot Conversation learned to Tony you want to
2:10:56
Speaker 2: support me that way? Loser cast every Tuesday night, New
2:10:58
Speaker 2: York Giants Jeez Podcast. No idea if it's happening or not,
2:11:03
Speaker 2: but we'll see. That's gonna do it. Thanks everybody. Let's
2:11:08
Speaker 2: have a good Friday. Let's start the weekend right, uh peace.
2:11:16
Speaker 1: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, let
2:11:21
Speaker 1: somebody and so let somebody know you do.
2:11:26
Speaker 2: Not have to.
2:11:28
Speaker 3: Lose this round. Longe hold on.
2:11:35
Speaker 1: Hold on noth tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on.
2:11:46
Speaker 1: Let me pull you out that bad lock by time,
2:11:54
Speaker 1: but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on,
2:12:02
Speaker 1: stay with me, now, hold on, hold you're still here
2:12:14
Speaker 1: now