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Best Bets NFL Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:14
Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: Today is our week sixteen Thursday NFL episode. This is
0:24
Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys
0:26
Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We will make a survivor
0:30
Speaker 1: pick for a listener one of my favorite emailers. We
0:34
Speaker 1: will build our money line Underdog Round Robin. We'll give
0:39
Speaker 1: out our Foxhole bet, our big Ball's Bet of the week.
0:41
Speaker 1: We will narrow down our picks for the free to
0:44
Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pig contest. Because,
0:51
Speaker 1: as our old pal Colin Cowherd likes to say, he
0:54
Speaker 1: know ya, holy shit?
0:57
Speaker 2: Where's the title all?
0:58
Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
1:01
Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites
1:04
Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before
1:07
Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award
1:10
Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can also track all the bets.
1:14
Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, the
1:16
Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorites Podcast let's bring in my
1:20
Speaker 1: co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF professional better
1:25
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter head O Solomon.
1:29
Speaker 2: Hello, Hot Chad feeling.
1:31
Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm feeling particularly sort of animated
1:34
Speaker 1: and excited to be with you today. I'm feeling nostalgic
1:37
Speaker 1: that we're at the near end of the season and
1:41
Speaker 1: we have made it through a gauntlet of podcasts and work.
1:46
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm just feeling nostalgic for the end of the year.
1:49
Speaker 1: Last week, Simon, we were so perfectly aligned. I got
1:53
Speaker 1: the picks in early, we never wavered. It all worked
1:57
Speaker 1: out great this week. Every game we liked on Sunday
2:01
Speaker 1: I had moved by Tuesday, either from professional money or injuries.
2:05
Speaker 1: The pickings are slim. The biggest games of the week
2:09
Speaker 1: have found us on opposite sides. Although I might be
2:12
Speaker 1: coming over to your side. Welcome to the Favorites, the
2:17
Speaker 1: Therapy edition. That's basically where we're at. We're gonna have
2:21
Speaker 1: to work through a lot of issues together today to
2:24
Speaker 1: get to a final five. As a reminder, the Favorites
2:27
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by bet three sixty five. Bet three
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Speaker 1: gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.
3:05
Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. All right, Week sixteen kickoff is nearly
3:13
Speaker 1: upon us. No more daily dally. It's time for sharp calls.
3:22
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there?
3:23
Speaker 3: I'm talking rain range telephone range, somebody saying maybe what
3:29
Speaker 3: you do?
3:30
Speaker 2: Man?
3:31
Speaker 3: Silent and we'll go in order. This was a week
3:34
Speaker 3: of a lot of back and forth. I'm the opposite
3:37
Speaker 3: side of a lot of pros here. The boys like
3:40
Speaker 3: the Saints against the Rams tonight, and I just can't
3:44
Speaker 3: get there. But I get their reasoning they think the
3:47
Speaker 3: Saints defense isn't as bad as they've looked, and I
3:49
Speaker 3: think they've just played bad offenses and they've been able
3:52
Speaker 3: to have a very easy schedule. So we'll find out
3:55
Speaker 3: who is right tonight. I think the public is right
3:57
Speaker 3: betting the Rams. But I woke up, I mean an
4:00
Speaker 3: hour ago, and I just checked. Yeah, Evan just put
4:03
Speaker 3: our chat eighty four percent of the tickets on the Rams.
4:07
Speaker 3: But the number at two of the most public books
4:10
Speaker 3: right now has moved from four down to three and
4:12
Speaker 3: a half. So pretty interesting the fact that the money
4:17
Speaker 3: has coming for the professionals on the Saints team.
4:21
Speaker 1: I don't mind being on the Rams side at all here.
4:23
Speaker 1: And I would say, you know, you did a favorite
4:28
Speaker 1: Film Room YouTube exclusive on Kyron Williams. We posted this yesterday.
4:33
Speaker 1: I did Christian mccaff or, you did Kyrien Williams. I
4:35
Speaker 1: thought your breakdown was perfect. I think he can have
4:37
Speaker 1: a dominant game. I think the Rams run away with us.
4:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.
4:41
Speaker 3: My only fear is it's just like when I tell
4:44
Speaker 3: people you're on the opposite side of me. You might
4:45
Speaker 3: be right, but you've gone from a fifty fifty chance
4:49
Speaker 3: no matter what to below forty percent, and that's that's
4:52
Speaker 3: what you're doing here if you're taking the Rams. So
4:54
Speaker 3: you might win tonight, but I'm telling you long term,
4:57
Speaker 3: this is statistically a loser, just because I know the
5:00
Speaker 3: guy's wrong the other side. So I just wanted to
5:03
Speaker 3: bring it up real quick, just because I thought it
5:04
Speaker 3: was interesting where it's like, I think we talked much
5:06
Speaker 3: about it.
5:07
Speaker 2: I thought the Rams were the play and it's just interesting.
5:09
Speaker 3: There are actual professional groups now coming into the Saints Pittsburgh.
5:13
Speaker 3: We'll keep it moving though, not much to say there.
5:14
Speaker 3: Everyone knows the pros are gonna be on Pittsburgh. It's
5:16
Speaker 3: just the play. Yeah. Split on the Chargers, Buffalo. There's
5:21
Speaker 3: people like us who like the Charges at that big number.
5:23
Speaker 3: There's other guys that I talked to there, just like,
5:26
Speaker 3: what do you bet on the Chargers? Like what you
5:27
Speaker 3: don't even know you're getting from stick? The defense is
5:30
Speaker 3: banged up, kind of giving up. It's just a bad team,
5:32
Speaker 3: so totally again why they don't want it. I'm happy
5:35
Speaker 3: we can't put that in our contest.
5:36
Speaker 2: To me too, we.
5:38
Speaker 1: Would have to, and everything about it makes me sick.
5:42
Speaker 1: I haven't bet it yet because i'm sort of just waiting.
5:43
Speaker 1: I'm counting on the public coming in on Saturday and
5:47
Speaker 1: pounding this thing. But yeah, it's terrible.
5:50
Speaker 2: I did.
5:51
Speaker 3: I did talk to the group that I believe were
5:52
Speaker 3: the ones that hammered the Falcons news, and basically my
5:57
Speaker 3: view is they got info early about Heinek, and they
6:00
Speaker 3: hammered it, and I don't think they realized it was
6:04
Speaker 3: going to move as much as it moved. And even they,
6:07
Speaker 3: I mean even the guy I was talking to was like,
6:09
Speaker 3: I mean, the Colts probably a good value now, and
6:12
Speaker 3: I agreed with them. But this is when I think,
6:14
Speaker 3: me and you what, we'll just stay away from right.
6:16
Speaker 3: It's just moved too much in either direction.
6:18
Speaker 1: I don't know. I was going to make a case
6:20
Speaker 1: for it. We'll talk about it. I still feel pretty
6:22
Speaker 1: good about the Falcons here.
6:24
Speaker 3: I like Atlanta too. I just don't know what to
6:25
Speaker 3: do with it because it's moved so much. A game
6:29
Speaker 3: me and you loved Tennessee. I do think it is
6:33
Speaker 3: going to be Tannehill, which does make me feel a
6:35
Speaker 3: little better, just because we always talk about those kind
6:38
Speaker 3: of spots of the veteran guy who's giving up on
6:41
Speaker 3: he's had two months now watching someone else play that.
6:44
Speaker 3: I mean, people want to die, but it actually is
6:46
Speaker 3: good for you to watch someone else because you kind
6:48
Speaker 3: of notice little things that you could do differently or better.
6:52
Speaker 3: We're getting that right with Tannehill. Like they're they're begging
6:54
Speaker 3: for Tennessee and money. So a couple of guys I
6:58
Speaker 3: talked to, they're just waiting and they're open to get
7:00
Speaker 3: the three. Once Gino Smith gets fully cleared. They think
7:03
Speaker 3: you'll get the three. I disagreed. I've been taking it
7:06
Speaker 3: to an half because I do think it'll go down
7:08
Speaker 3: as soon as he gets cleared. I think people think
7:11
Speaker 3: it's gonna bounce up, and I just don't. I think
7:13
Speaker 3: the professionals will come in on the Tennessee Titans. But
7:17
Speaker 3: we'll see Genos doesn't been cleared. We already talked about Panthers.
7:22
Speaker 3: We'll break it down again. It's a game I'm like
7:24
Speaker 3: uncomfortable now that I've made my Simon says, but I
7:27
Speaker 3: talked to a couple of guys who like it too,
7:29
Speaker 3: but unfortunately talk to some guys on the other side
7:32
Speaker 3: of it. So that's another split game between the professionals
7:34
Speaker 3: where I thought it was gonna be all pros and
7:35
Speaker 3: the Panthers. Some guys feel like they got really lucky
7:39
Speaker 3: betting the Panthers last week, and this Green Bay team
7:43
Speaker 3: got really unlucky against the Bucks. And this is a
7:46
Speaker 3: nice spot for this Green Bay team. And I just disagree.
7:48
Speaker 3: I disagree with that opinion. So we'll go into that
7:50
Speaker 3: one more. I'll fire these offers because I know, just
7:54
Speaker 3: taking a while Arizona, a game we didn't really talk
7:56
Speaker 3: about much.
7:57
Speaker 2: That's the pros like the I think it was five
7:59
Speaker 2: or four and a half.
8:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's skip that one because I I put
8:04
Speaker 1: it into the script. Okay, you talk about is adding
8:07
Speaker 1: because you did talk about it a little bit on Tuesday.
8:09
Speaker 1: But the wise guys like it, then that's just more
8:12
Speaker 1: fodder for the conversation it.
8:14
Speaker 3: I thought it was too big of a number, So
8:15
Speaker 3: it makes sense a game me and chat were split on.
8:19
Speaker 3: I knew the Pros would be on the Ravens. It's
8:21
Speaker 3: just the spot the pros are going to take the Ravens,
8:23
Speaker 3: no surprise the public.
8:25
Speaker 1: Well, that's the game that I've been wavering on, even
8:28
Speaker 1: though I made it my exact decision. You're nervous about
8:31
Speaker 1: your assignment, says I'm nervous about my exact decision. I
8:34
Speaker 1: have reasons why. It's one of the reasons why I'm
8:36
Speaker 1: calling this the therapy session, because I have a lot
8:39
Speaker 1: of reasons why I ended up on the niners that
8:41
Speaker 1: forty eight hours later, I'm like, I made an emotional decision.
8:46
Speaker 3: Yeah maybe, so it wasn't shocking though hearing that the
8:49
Speaker 3: pros like the Ravens. What it is shocking This numbers
8:52
Speaker 3: held a couple five and a halfs out there. I'm
8:54
Speaker 3: seeing one or two books show four and a half,
8:57
Speaker 3: So I guess some pro money's hit it. But my
9:00
Speaker 3: hope is this was going to get the six. I
9:02
Speaker 3: should have known better. It was never gonna get there.
9:04
Speaker 3: Just the pros weren't gonna let it. I thought this
9:07
Speaker 3: would be a more split game. It's really not. It's
9:11
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be public all over the forty nine ers,
9:13
Speaker 3: and what the pros think is what I think. It's like,
9:15
Speaker 3: you're getting one or two free points here. You just
9:17
Speaker 3: take the Ravens and live with the results. So not shocking.
9:22
Speaker 3: And there's a bunch of games that are just split.
9:23
Speaker 3: I mean, like, we don't have that. We're not gonna
9:25
Speaker 3: die too much into it. But yeah, the pro is
9:28
Speaker 3: like the Giants, but it's not like a six figure bet.
9:31
Speaker 3: Most of the guys I talked to are just throwing a
9:32
Speaker 3: little taste on the Giants. That's when I'm happy that
9:35
Speaker 3: me and you really had no opinion on it. I
9:37
Speaker 3: kind of want to stay away from it. The game
9:40
Speaker 3: we talked about a little bit Denver Broncos. You know,
9:44
Speaker 3: they think it's too high. But once again, it's not
9:47
Speaker 3: like it's a big bet for people. It's just an
9:49
Speaker 3: opinion where it's like, you know, I'll be on New England.
9:53
Speaker 2: I get.
9:53
Speaker 3: I wanted to be on Denver honestly because they're at
9:56
Speaker 3: home it's supposed to be a snowy game because I
9:59
Speaker 3: try for us in that position rather than Zappi. But
10:03
Speaker 3: now that it is supposed to be one hundred percent
10:05
Speaker 3: guarantee of snow game, I'll probably just stay away from it.
10:08
Speaker 3: It's it's a game where I already wanted to be
10:11
Speaker 3: on the under. I think it's dropped, Evan maybe from
10:16
Speaker 3: the chat. I'm almost positive dropped since the news came
10:18
Speaker 3: out that the weather. But me and Chad weren't really
10:21
Speaker 3: in love with this one anyway. But we'll probably just
10:24
Speaker 3: end up staying away from it. Now that there's supposed
10:25
Speaker 3: to be like Evan just from the chat, supposed to
10:27
Speaker 3: be really cold with snow, but no real win.
10:29
Speaker 2: So nothing too crazy there.
10:32
Speaker 1: All right. As a reminder, you can catch every episode
10:34
Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
10:38
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
10:40
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. And by the way, reminder,
10:45
Speaker 1: after our huge, huge event earlier, this month's The Favorites
10:50
Speaker 1: podcast returns for another live event to the Shepherd in
10:55
Speaker 1: the Knucklehead in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey. Wild Card weekend
11:00
Speaker 1: January fourteenth, at Sunday, doors open at four pm. Simon
11:03
Speaker 1: and I will be there. We'll have drinks, we'll have hugs,
11:07
Speaker 1: we'll have sweating live the games that day. We'll record
11:11
Speaker 1: our show live at seven point thirty. We have a
11:14
Speaker 1: second live event that Saturday, Wildcard Watch Party with Stuckey
11:19
Speaker 1: with Chris Raybond with Sean Kerner, also at four o'clock.
11:23
Speaker 1: That's Saturday, January thirteenth. Check out the RSVP for these events.
11:26
Speaker 1: There are links to the RSVP in the episode description.
11:30
Speaker 1: I mean I can't say it enough. I get so
11:32
Speaker 1: nervous for these events, huge social anxiety, huge worry that
11:37
Speaker 1: people aren't going to be there. The last event was
11:41
Speaker 1: incredibly warm and happy and it was great to be
11:45
Speaker 1: with everybody. So I'm looking forward to running it back.
11:49
Speaker 1: All right, we got to get into our games. We
11:50
Speaker 1: got to find our foxhol We've got to find our survivor,
11:52
Speaker 1: at least the survivor we're going to talk about with
11:54
Speaker 1: our emailer. And of course we got to get to
11:57
Speaker 1: the big balls bet of the week. A couple things
12:01
Speaker 1: that Matt Mitchell spoke to our contest overlords about the
12:07
Speaker 1: least popular game for contest picks so far, Washington and
12:11
Speaker 1: New York Jets least popular team this week. A little
12:15
Speaker 1: foreshadowing here, Chicago Bears. All right, Simon, here we go.
12:21
Speaker 1: We gotta find five. The first tup we talked about
12:25
Speaker 1: the other day, Detroit at Minnesota. When we talked about
12:28
Speaker 1: it on Sunday, we were bet in Minnesota. Minnesota plus
12:32
Speaker 1: four and a half, Minnesota plus four, Minnesota plus three
12:35
Speaker 1: and a half. It's down to three. It's a hard
12:41
Speaker 1: one to do. Like I've been thinking about this game.
12:45
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about doesn't it make sense to take
12:48
Speaker 1: Detroit at minus three? Then I listened to the Sunday
12:51
Speaker 1: six pack with the Raymond and Stuckey, and Raymond made
12:55
Speaker 1: a really good point. Jared Goff number one ranked passer
12:58
Speaker 1: when he's not blissed according to Pro Football Focus, number
13:02
Speaker 1: twenty nine when he is. The Vikings defense not not
13:05
Speaker 1: only does it glits practically every passing down, but they've
13:09
Speaker 1: been incredibly effective against the run and incredibly effective against
13:13
Speaker 1: the pass. I'm wavering on our belief that Detroit minus
13:17
Speaker 1: three isn't automatic. We got the number at the right
13:21
Speaker 1: place now side.
13:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's fair.
13:27
Speaker 3: You know that's the only the only reason you're backing
13:29
Speaker 3: the Vikings is because of all the defensive stats. Yea,
13:33
Speaker 3: the defense has been playing incredible this season. You know
13:38
Speaker 3: they're one of those teams that they had one of
13:42
Speaker 3: the worst defense in all football last year. They made
13:45
Speaker 3: a change of their DC and you've seen how good
13:48
Speaker 3: their defense is playing this year. And it's pretty incredible
13:51
Speaker 3: how important coaching is in the NFL. So you know, Chris,
13:56
Speaker 3: Chris has been a Viking better feels like all season, right,
14:00
Speaker 3: I've really been all.
14:00
Speaker 2: Over this Vikings team.
14:02
Speaker 3: And I didn't get it because he was betting them
14:06
Speaker 3: with Dobbs and he was betting bad numbers and it
14:08
Speaker 3: was working because somehow he was making it work for
14:12
Speaker 3: that Vikings team, and then he flamed out. Right now
14:14
Speaker 3: he's their third stringer. They've they've kind of kept rolling
14:19
Speaker 3: despite all these different quarterbacks. It's because of what me
14:23
Speaker 3: and I just talking about is the defense and the
14:25
Speaker 3: scheme they run an offense just all has been working.
14:28
Speaker 3: So yeah, the the pros I talked to, they loved Minnesota.
14:33
Speaker 3: They didn't love him at three. They we talked about,
14:36
Speaker 3: like this number keeps popping three and a half. I
14:37
Speaker 3: mean last night before I went to bed, it was
14:39
Speaker 3: three and a half again.
14:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it moved this morning to three.
14:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, woke up this morning is back then to three.
14:44
Speaker 3: So if you're wondering one side of the pros are
14:47
Speaker 3: on Chad, I just told you, like they like the Vikings,
14:49
Speaker 3: this defense, they have the numbers to.
14:51
Speaker 2: Back it up.
14:52
Speaker 3: I guess I'm still at the point chat which just
14:55
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to do where it's like I'm
14:57
Speaker 3: getting three with golf against a fourth string quarterback.
15:03
Speaker 2: It's tough where it's.
15:04
Speaker 3: Like Okay, say the blitz does work, right, they have
15:07
Speaker 3: golf in a weird position.
15:08
Speaker 2: He's not comfortable.
15:10
Speaker 3: He's still gonna get his like they got a great
15:14
Speaker 3: oc and Ben Johnson like they're gonna make the adjustments right.
15:17
Speaker 2: So I'm with Chris.
15:20
Speaker 3: Maybe this will throw me off and I won't want
15:22
Speaker 3: to take it as much. But I mean, if we
15:24
Speaker 3: get off this call chat, it's two and a half
15:26
Speaker 3: on Detroit, are really going to be mainly enough to
15:29
Speaker 3: pass on that number?
15:30
Speaker 2: I mean it's tough to not take that number.
15:32
Speaker 1: I think that I think the number in the contest
15:35
Speaker 1: is going to be key. Yeah, yeah, I think it's
15:38
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be It's gonna be the
15:40
Speaker 1: defining factor. You know. It's interesting. So, and we've said
15:43
Speaker 1: this a lot going back to the beginning of the year.
15:47
Speaker 1: We gave Brian Daboll so much credit for his ability
15:51
Speaker 1: to for for how he coached the Giants last year,
15:55
Speaker 1: and the Giants and the Vikings were the two teams
15:58
Speaker 1: that won the most one score games, And this year
16:04
Speaker 1: we gave the Vikings no credit, Kevin Stefanski no credit
16:08
Speaker 1: for his coaching ability and putting them in a position
16:11
Speaker 1: to succeed and fighting the regression from last year. It
16:15
Speaker 1: turns out it was Stefanski who really knew how to
16:19
Speaker 1: coach this team up no matter what the circumstances, albeit
16:23
Speaker 1: with a much better defense, although he has a hand
16:25
Speaker 1: in hiring and deciding who the coordinator is, right, Brian
16:28
Speaker 1: dave All hired Mink Martindale Nick Kevin Stefanski went out
16:31
Speaker 1: and got Brian Flores. So I feel like we we
16:35
Speaker 1: didn't give Kevin Stefanski enough credit for his coaching chops
16:38
Speaker 1: when we came into this year. I just want to
16:40
Speaker 1: say that flowers for Kevin Stefanski.
16:42
Speaker 3: Yeah that's fair. You know, they as much I want
16:46
Speaker 3: to give them flowers. They did have some of the
16:48
Speaker 3: most insane players ever.
16:49
Speaker 2: Like that.
16:50
Speaker 3: As soon as you said some of that Bills game
16:51
Speaker 3: popped them. I had that win over the Bills last year.
16:53
Speaker 1: It was just like, dude, the win over the Colts.
16:56
Speaker 3: Yeah right, right, So we had a reason. They say
17:00
Speaker 3: there was gonna be a regression there, but yeah, probably
17:03
Speaker 3: gonna lose. I mean, we got two three weeks to
17:06
Speaker 3: go here, but probably gonna lose this under bet on
17:07
Speaker 3: the Vikings as they're what seven and seven here? So yeah, incredible,
17:12
Speaker 3: incredible coaching job. You're spot on, like the head coach,
17:15
Speaker 3: the DC, all of it. For the Vikings, it's the
17:18
Speaker 3: definition of not having that much talent but making it
17:22
Speaker 3: what it should be, right above what everyone's predicted, because
17:26
Speaker 3: you know it's the NFL, Like all these guys are
17:28
Speaker 3: crazy talented. The difference is so minis school. So it's
17:33
Speaker 3: it's interesting. I mean, and we just had haven't put
17:35
Speaker 3: in here. Golf is spaced the fourth most dropbacks while
17:40
Speaker 3: blitz this season, so the league knows, right, he's been
17:44
Speaker 3: blitzed this year, there's still ten and four. So I
17:48
Speaker 3: do like that staff from Chris. But my guess would
17:52
Speaker 3: be if any team could counter what the Vikings are doing,
17:55
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a team like Detroit, right, they know
17:58
Speaker 3: what they need to do here in this position against
18:00
Speaker 3: the blitz where he's.
18:01
Speaker 2: Been facing all season.
18:02
Speaker 3: Everyone knows that's kind of been his achilles heel, right,
18:04
Speaker 3: his whole career is golf rushed.
18:06
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, we'll take a look at that one
18:10
Speaker 1: Washington at the New York Jets. It's another game we
18:12
Speaker 1: talked about the other day, the big news.
18:14
Speaker 2: What's that I said, did we we.
18:16
Speaker 1: Did a little bit. We don't have to spend too
18:18
Speaker 1: much time on it. I don't think it. I don't
18:20
Speaker 1: think it ends up. The big news is basically Aaron
18:22
Speaker 1: Rodgers was activated from IR. Zach Wilson was announced as
18:26
Speaker 1: the starter if he clears the concussion protocol. If not,
18:30
Speaker 1: Frevor Simmeyon is the quarterback. He went fourteen twenty six
18:33
Speaker 1: two picks, one hundred and ten yards in relief against Miami.
18:37
Speaker 1: H Let it be said if we decided because we
18:39
Speaker 1: did like the Jets at minus three, it's only about
18:44
Speaker 1: betting on the defense here. Yes, and the commander is
18:47
Speaker 1: completely flailing offense. But I do not feel any compunction
18:53
Speaker 1: to put this into the contest.
18:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm scared I can't.
18:58
Speaker 3: Do it, but uh through it. It's just it's just
19:02
Speaker 3: hard to back this Jets team where Chad's right, Like,
19:04
Speaker 3: I know, we probably should.
19:05
Speaker 2: It's a good spot for their defense. Sam Howe.
19:08
Speaker 3: I think I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure
19:11
Speaker 3: he's like, you know, number two or three interceptions number
19:14
Speaker 3: one and getting sacked. He's just been an absolute train
19:18
Speaker 3: wreck as of late. Especially Yeah, expected Jets after being
19:23
Speaker 3: embarrassed right like they got literally embarrassed the week before
19:28
Speaker 3: to come home and put up put up a good
19:29
Speaker 3: game here. But the fear is that they've quit on Salah,
19:33
Speaker 3: so that that's kind of what you don't know.
19:34
Speaker 2: You're betting the unknown.
19:35
Speaker 3: So I'm with Chad, like I wanted to bet the
19:39
Speaker 3: Jets defense at home here, but got nothing, got nothing
19:43
Speaker 3: to do or do with this game.
19:44
Speaker 1: Really, I think it's hard that having the Saturday games,
19:48
Speaker 1: because that that just limits so many, Like we love
19:51
Speaker 1: so many the Saturday games so hard. Green Bay at Carolina,
19:54
Speaker 1: Carolina plus five right now, I bet three six five.
19:58
Speaker 1: Let's take a little bit deeper on this, because we
20:01
Speaker 1: promise we wouldn't do this again to people, and yet
20:03
Speaker 1: here we are doing it again. The good news the
20:06
Speaker 1: good news, Simon. Our luck rankings have the Panthers as
20:09
Speaker 1: the thirty first most unlucky team in the NFL. According
20:15
Speaker 1: to our numbers, they should be a four win team,
20:16
Speaker 1: not a two win team. So there is that. Here's
20:19
Speaker 1: the problem. The Green Bay Packers also very unlucky this year,
20:25
Speaker 1: twenty fourth in our luck rankings, So that means, you know,
20:29
Speaker 1: two bottom ten teams in the luck rankings. Right now,
20:34
Speaker 1: I feel like this is a scale. I think the
20:37
Speaker 1: Panthers are the right side, but I think it's a
20:39
Speaker 1: hard one to It's a hard one to stomach.
20:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the pushback I got on it from another
20:46
Speaker 3: pros I talked through or they just don't see any
20:48
Speaker 3: of it from Bryce Young where it's like you need
20:51
Speaker 3: to get so lucky to win or cover these games
20:54
Speaker 3: when you're back here in Bryce Young, because he's not
20:56
Speaker 3: going to do it for you, Like you're going to
20:57
Speaker 3: need other guys to really step up. And that's asking
21:01
Speaker 3: a lot here, Jordan Love. We've seen him make the throws.
21:04
Speaker 3: I mean last week, Yeah, you had a down week,
21:06
Speaker 3: you still put up what twenty points, which in Bryce
21:09
Speaker 3: s Young's career, that ain't never happening, right, this kid,
21:12
Speaker 3: this kid has to die just to get across ten points.
21:16
Speaker 3: So yeah, I got I get the pushback in your
21:19
Speaker 3: argument against it. It is a it is a back
21:23
Speaker 3: though on this Panthers defense at home, Like we've only
21:26
Speaker 3: seen them really get blown out by Ray teams, right,
21:29
Speaker 3: like the Cowboys came down there. I think we backed
21:31
Speaker 3: it unfortunately and they got blown out, right, they got rolled.
21:35
Speaker 3: But when it's kind of teams that have question marks
21:37
Speaker 3: that aren't as competitive, which as Green Bay teams say
21:41
Speaker 3: what you want, they aren't right, They're not consistent. Their
21:44
Speaker 3: defense is bad, like if you go through that tape.
21:47
Speaker 3: I know they've had some injuries, but I mean they
21:50
Speaker 3: could run it anyway they wanted last week. And that's
21:52
Speaker 3: what Caroline wants to do with Hubbard, Like Hubbard's been
21:55
Speaker 3: incredible for them running the ball, not Miles Sanders, the
21:57
Speaker 3: guy they paid, which another reason never pay these running backs.
22:01
Speaker 2: But yeah, the Panthers one Chad.
22:03
Speaker 3: I I'm trying not the waiver on it, but it
22:06
Speaker 3: does make me uneasy knowing that if we get down
22:08
Speaker 3: fourteen to nothing, it is dead like that is a
22:11
Speaker 3: dead bet. If it's fourteen to nothing at any point
22:13
Speaker 3: in this game, We're just not gonna get there with
22:15
Speaker 3: this Panthers offense. But I'm gonna stick to back in
22:19
Speaker 3: this Panthers defense at home at a big number against
22:21
Speaker 3: Jordan Love on the road, I just think it's too
22:24
Speaker 3: many point two points too high, like there should be three,
22:27
Speaker 3: three and a half. It's still five. I'll take the
22:30
Speaker 3: value there. It's just trusting the number and trusting this
22:32
Speaker 3: Panthers d and knowing that this is by Sunday going
22:36
Speaker 3: to be one of the most public plays of the week.
22:37
Speaker 3: Everyone's gonna be all over Green Bay. So you know,
22:41
Speaker 3: my thought was a prosn to come in. This was
22:43
Speaker 3: gonna be down to four by the show. Clearly that's wrong.
22:46
Speaker 3: It's still a five. So yeah, my bad for the
22:49
Speaker 3: Simon says, but it was gonna be big balls regardless.
22:51
Speaker 2: So you're gonna be in on this one anyway. People.
22:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, we owe with big balls, we
22:57
Speaker 1: owe a foxhole. Have we ever doubled up? Have we
23:03
Speaker 1: ever had a game that was that was a Simon says,
23:06
Speaker 1: an exec decision and one of the other two we did.
23:10
Speaker 3: With you like, I think you had an exact and
23:12
Speaker 3: we loved it so much we made it a big ball,
23:14
Speaker 3: but we said we would never do it again.
23:16
Speaker 1: All right, Well, some stats to back us up here, Okay,
23:20
Speaker 1: Jordan Love is four and two against the spread versus
23:22
Speaker 1: teams above five hundred, two and five against the spread
23:25
Speaker 1: under five hundred. Panthers average time per drive fourth longest
23:31
Speaker 1: in the NFL, behind Dallas, Philadelphia and Buffalo. They eat
23:34
Speaker 1: the clock. The problem is in the red zone, twenty
23:37
Speaker 1: ninth in red zone percentage and red zone touchdowns, Bryce Young,
23:46
Speaker 1: best quarterback in the NFL against the spread when trailing
23:51
Speaker 1: at half this year, all those things make me feel
23:54
Speaker 1: a little bit better.
23:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just we can't avoid it. I hate it,
23:58
Speaker 3: Like this is what we do. We have to bet
24:01
Speaker 3: a team that has two wins here in December, when
24:03
Speaker 3: they're catching over five points at home.
24:05
Speaker 2: It's like I don't need back in them either. Off
24:07
Speaker 2: wul win.
24:08
Speaker 3: Like that's another thing that's making me pause where it's
24:10
Speaker 3: like we're backing a team off such a huge emotional win,
24:13
Speaker 3: basing a team that just got embarrassed and blown out
24:15
Speaker 3: at home. I wanted to be on Green Bay, but
24:18
Speaker 3: the line just never got there, Like the value was
24:20
Speaker 3: just on Carolina. So as much as people want us
24:22
Speaker 3: to avoid this one, I just I can't do it.
24:24
Speaker 1: I just had a flood of ideas for the money
24:27
Speaker 1: line underdog round robin when we were talking about Carolina,
24:30
Speaker 1: and then I put down some other teams and oh
24:32
Speaker 1: my god, it's so gross. I can't wait to talk
24:34
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Speaker 1: fifty percent off. All right, you mentioned Atuana, I think
25:44
Speaker 1: we should have Atlanta in the contest. Atlanta is right
25:47
Speaker 1: now one point favorite at home, and my feeling on
25:52
Speaker 1: this game is I know it moved and I know
25:55
Speaker 1: we bet Atlanta as underdogs. I got them at two
25:58
Speaker 1: and a half.
25:59
Speaker 2: That's why I feel a bad beat.
26:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know what, like we talk about this
26:02
Speaker 1: all the time, right, like we sort of have to
26:04
Speaker 1: think about the spot and the personnel and the situation
26:11
Speaker 1: as well as the trends and and you know, people
26:15
Speaker 1: even in the chat last week were blown up like
26:17
Speaker 1: you're you're talking too much about the trends. And I
26:19
Speaker 1: get that, but the trends are one part of the system,
26:24
Speaker 1: like electrons, as you're thinking about all of these things,
26:28
Speaker 1: and we know that, like the trends are going to
26:32
Speaker 1: be against a team that started as a underdog and
26:37
Speaker 1: now moved to a favorite, although Evan would point that
26:40
Speaker 1: the Falcons opened as a favorite, then moved to a dog,
26:43
Speaker 1: and moved back to a favorite. So so I'm discounting
26:48
Speaker 1: the trend a little bit. Okay, I don't mind Taylor
26:52
Speaker 1: Heineke as a one point favorite, and I feel like
26:58
Speaker 1: in this moment right now, Indy is just not that
27:02
Speaker 1: good of a team. Like their defense isn't very good.
27:06
Speaker 1: They've had some really wins against really bad teams. They've
27:12
Speaker 1: beaten the Titans twice, they've beaten the Panthers. They've beaten
27:15
Speaker 1: the Bucks, they've beaten the Steelers. Like I think they're
27:18
Speaker 1: going on the road against a team that is going
27:20
Speaker 1: to be healthier. One of the reasons we were worried
27:22
Speaker 1: about Atlanta last week, while we didn't like them against
27:25
Speaker 1: the Panthers, is because their offensive line is incredible and
27:30
Speaker 1: a lot of their guys were questionable or out and
27:33
Speaker 1: so I think their offensive line is going to be
27:35
Speaker 1: better this week. It just feels like and look, arther
27:39
Speaker 1: Smith is playing his coaching for his job right now,
27:42
Speaker 1: so I say we stick with the Falcons.
27:48
Speaker 3: Let the record show if he got fired, I would
27:51
Speaker 3: give everything as an Eagles fan to get him as
27:53
Speaker 3: o OC like this man took the corpse of Ryan
27:57
Speaker 3: Tannehill and drag it to be a one seed. I
27:59
Speaker 3: know that's part of v Abel, right, Rabel's magic, But
28:02
Speaker 3: if you go back and look, that was Tannahill's best
28:03
Speaker 3: season ever passing wise, and yeah, a lot of blame
28:07
Speaker 3: can be put on him, but it's like, but I
28:08
Speaker 3: see all the time, if you don't have a quarterback,
28:12
Speaker 3: you're kind of dead here. And they don't have a
28:14
Speaker 3: quarterback in Atlanta, and heinike. I'll ride it with you, Chad.
28:18
Speaker 3: But it's gonna be it's not gonna be a enjoyable experience. Right,
28:23
Speaker 3: we know we're gonna we're gonna be.
28:25
Speaker 2: It's gonna be.
28:25
Speaker 3: We're gonna be up seven in the fourth quarter. He'll
28:28
Speaker 3: throw a pick on his own twenty. Minshew's gonna tie
28:31
Speaker 3: the game up. I mean, you're gonna both be sitting
28:33
Speaker 3: there and be like, this is why it sucks bettering
28:35
Speaker 3: this Atlanta team. But you're right, Like the Colts have
28:39
Speaker 3: overachieved more than any team of football this year. We
28:41
Speaker 3: talked about it, like the job Shane Steikin's done, like
28:44
Speaker 3: the whole thing incredible, Like he probably should win Coach
28:49
Speaker 3: of the Year with what he's done with the Colts
28:50
Speaker 3: this year. Because they don't have talent on defense really, right,
28:54
Speaker 3: They've had some big injuries. They've had to let go
28:56
Speaker 3: of some of their best old time veterans just because
28:59
Speaker 3: they're not good anymore. It's kind of a rebuilding process
29:02
Speaker 3: on that defense and then offense. We already talked about
29:04
Speaker 3: like what he's done with Minshew has been incredible.
29:07
Speaker 1: Incredible, Minshew Gardner, Minshew, He's got him playing at a
29:11
Speaker 1: playoff level. He's got a guy who's got them in contention, Gardner,
29:16
Speaker 1: Minshew before the season had won two games as a starter.
29:21
Speaker 1: Like he's tripled his number.
29:24
Speaker 3: So yeah, the thing, the big thing for you for
29:26
Speaker 3: me is the fact that Pittman might be missing this
29:28
Speaker 3: game for the Colts yep. And if you've seen them
29:31
Speaker 3: this season, he's been huge for them on third downs.
29:34
Speaker 3: I mean, they really do draw up a lot of
29:36
Speaker 3: the plays to get him the ball on third down,
29:37
Speaker 3: just because anytime he gets the ball in any type
29:40
Speaker 3: of space, he's going to make a big play and
29:42
Speaker 3: he can make the first guy miss. Usually he's so big,
29:44
Speaker 3: strong and fast. He hasn't practiced all week. He might
29:48
Speaker 3: miss this game, den Shaid, I would automatically be all
29:51
Speaker 3: in on this one. Like that would give me a
29:53
Speaker 3: ton of confidence because that's really taken away a huge
29:56
Speaker 3: key to their offense. What Minshew needs, right, Minshew needs playmaker.
30:00
Speaker 3: Because we say it all the time, Minshew, He's gonna
30:02
Speaker 3: have a bunch of weaknesses, and one of the strength
30:05
Speaker 3: that was getting the ball into the best player's hands.
30:07
Speaker 3: So I could be convinced that Atlanta, like you only know,
30:10
Speaker 3: I bet Atlanta. I like Atlanta I liked them in
30:12
Speaker 3: the spot, Like you just said this, this is the
30:14
Speaker 3: classic thing of the whole season. They know this is it,
30:18
Speaker 3: Like they have to win this to keep up with
30:20
Speaker 3: the Bucks and to keep up with the Saints for
30:24
Speaker 3: their division.
30:24
Speaker 2: So this is their season. So I'm right there with you.
30:27
Speaker 3: It's like, I love these kind of spots here in
30:29
Speaker 3: late December where it's like it's do or die. That's
30:32
Speaker 3: your right here is we're back in Heinike as a
30:34
Speaker 3: favorite simon.
30:36
Speaker 1: As you were talking about it when I first proposed it,
30:39
Speaker 1: you were like, ah, this is a terrible idea. How
30:42
Speaker 1: do I tell Chad I want to I want to
30:44
Speaker 1: be with my guy on this.
30:46
Speaker 2: Well avoid it?
30:47
Speaker 1: How do I tell him? And then like as you
30:49
Speaker 1: were talking, You're like, wait a second, Wait a second,
30:52
Speaker 1: this totally makes sense. It's exactly what we should do,
30:55
Speaker 1: which is how I felt. It's how I felt when
30:58
Speaker 1: I was doing my notes last night in this morning, like,
31:01
Speaker 1: oh my god, we got to take the Falcons in
31:03
Speaker 1: the contest. I can't post Yeah, I can't believe. We
31:06
Speaker 1: have to do it all right right now. We're going
31:08
Speaker 1: to talk about it after because look, we're going to
31:09
Speaker 1: put our picks in after the show, and then we'll
31:12
Speaker 1: evaluate a gun on Sunday, and that's when we'll get
31:14
Speaker 1: a chance to see Pittman and his impact. He's in
31:16
Speaker 1: the concussion protocol right now, all right, Seattle at Tennessee.
31:20
Speaker 1: We don't spend too much time on this, Like, look,
31:24
Speaker 1: you're selling high on Seattle, you're buying low on Tennessee.
31:27
Speaker 1: Vrabel as a dog twenty six and twenty eight straight
31:31
Speaker 1: up as a dog thirty twenty three and one against
31:34
Speaker 1: a spread in his career fifty seven percent. Like he's
31:37
Speaker 1: one of the most profitable coaches the past twenty years.
31:40
Speaker 1: We're just taking Tennessee.
31:42
Speaker 2: Are we making this big balls? By of the week?
31:45
Speaker 1: I would do it big balls better than week Tennessee Titans.
31:53
Speaker 1: We're rolling with Nashville.
31:56
Speaker 3: A pretty interesting game that I'm across the board, Like
31:59
Speaker 3: I'm looking the actual app right now. It's minus one
32:01
Speaker 3: point fifteen for the minus two and a half for
32:04
Speaker 3: the Seattle.
32:04
Speaker 2: So if you do think.
32:06
Speaker 3: This could get the three, I can understand if you
32:09
Speaker 3: want to wait, But I just don't think it's gonna happen.
32:11
Speaker 3: I just I do think this will come down before kickoff.
32:13
Speaker 3: So I've been grabbing the two and a half just
32:16
Speaker 3: because of that. I just don't don't see it getting
32:18
Speaker 3: at the three. But yeah, if it does, that'd be great,
32:21
Speaker 3: But I just can't see it here where Seattle after
32:24
Speaker 3: that huge win Gina Smith forcing himself back in. Yeah,
32:30
Speaker 3: it's just just historically this is usually a spot that
32:33
Speaker 3: Seattle will lose, and this is the kind of game
32:36
Speaker 3: that the betting public they're going to hammer the Seattle team.
32:41
Speaker 3: I mean, Tennessee couldn't have a more embarrassing loss last week, right,
32:45
Speaker 3: we already talked about that. So the fact that actually
32:49
Speaker 3: it's actually pretty split in our app the betting and
32:52
Speaker 3: the tickets right now, which I'm actually pretty surprised by.
32:55
Speaker 3: But at one of the more public books out there,
32:58
Speaker 3: it's eighty percent of the ticket all right, I'm sorry,
33:01
Speaker 3: ninety percent of the tickets right now are on Seattle.
33:09
Speaker 3: So they're shaped up people with the more public teams
33:12
Speaker 3: of the week grabbing the minus two and a half.
33:14
Speaker 1: I don't know how I didn't make the exec decision Tennessee.
33:16
Speaker 1: That was you know, I'm blinded by emotion. Terrible, terrible
33:21
Speaker 1: call on my part.
33:23
Speaker 2: It's late, man, it's week fifteen, it's.
33:25
Speaker 1: Week fifteen, like and like some of these futures, I'm
33:28
Speaker 1: sorry sixteen, Week sixteen, I'm not going to lie to you,
33:31
Speaker 1: and we'll get to this, the Christian McCaffrey future. Like,
33:34
Speaker 1: I'm just so excited about that opportunity. It's in my head.
33:37
Speaker 1: But look, we like Tennessee. It's our big balls better
33:40
Speaker 1: of the week. Another game that we liked, that you
33:43
Speaker 1: liked all the way back on Sunday night. I didn't
33:45
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion about it. I'm starting to feel
33:48
Speaker 1: better about it. For lack of any true games that
33:51
Speaker 1: we any gains, we truly love Dallas Cowboys plus one
33:55
Speaker 1: and a half. I did bet Dallas Cowboys this morning.
33:59
Speaker 1: So who lose by seventeen or more playing a team
34:02
Speaker 1: that won by seventeen or more the previous week are
34:07
Speaker 1: fifty against the spread the past twenty years, two teams
34:10
Speaker 1: fit that criteria this week, Los Angeles Chargers Dallas Cowboys.
34:19
Speaker 2: I wish I could love it. I bet it. I
34:21
Speaker 2: like the Cowboys, I'm betting them. But love is tough.
34:25
Speaker 2: It's just we just don't know with either of these teams.
34:29
Speaker 3: Like we say al the time, the Cowboys haven't beat anyone,
34:32
Speaker 3: especially on the road this year, and this is a
34:34
Speaker 3: huge test for them, and then same goes for Miami.
34:36
Speaker 3: But what Chad said is why I like Dallas where
34:39
Speaker 3: it's like they just went through a week a hell
34:41
Speaker 3: for practice and they should be fired up for this game.
34:44
Speaker 3: Where Miami they're gonna be feeling pretty good all week, right,
34:47
Speaker 3: Like this is gonna be smoke plump their butt all
34:50
Speaker 3: week and matchup wise, you know, the fear here for
34:56
Speaker 3: me would be we just saw the Cowboys get absolutely
34:59
Speaker 3: gashed by James Cook in that run offense. Now we
35:02
Speaker 3: have Miami, one of the best running teams in all football,
35:05
Speaker 3: playing against them, Like that's a quick quick turnaround for Dallas.
35:08
Speaker 3: Have to fix that, Uh, fix those holes right now
35:11
Speaker 3: in their defense. So I get I get the split,
35:14
Speaker 3: Like again, why I talked to a couple of pros where
35:16
Speaker 3: they're like Miami. I just feel as chat fields where
35:18
Speaker 3: it's like you just either bet Dallas, you just don't
35:20
Speaker 3: pick aside in this game. It's like that's that's the
35:23
Speaker 3: logical side, that's the side the trends will like. Matchup wise,
35:26
Speaker 3: it feels like Dallas is just a little bit ahead
35:29
Speaker 3: of where Miami's at just from the standpoint of, you know,
35:35
Speaker 3: I kind of trust Dallas' defense more.
35:38
Speaker 2: I trust, obviously Dak more than I do to A
35:40
Speaker 2: for some for some reason, I.
35:41
Speaker 3: Don't know why, but I do, just because I feel
35:44
Speaker 3: like Dak in these kind of spots, he does usually
35:47
Speaker 3: bounce back where Miami they've kind of disappointed in these
35:50
Speaker 3: kind of positions. So, yeah, if you're a Miami s fan,
35:53
Speaker 3: it's this is kind of a big deal, right You
35:56
Speaker 3: guys need to win this one to believe in your
35:58
Speaker 3: team could do anything in the playoffs. And same goes
36:01
Speaker 3: for Dallas, where it's like they've just been so disappointed
36:03
Speaker 3: against these teams.
36:05
Speaker 2: That's what sucks about trying to make us one of
36:07
Speaker 2: our five chat.
36:08
Speaker 3: It's like I can already see us kicking ourselves and
36:10
Speaker 3: being like, why did There's so so many other ugly dogs.
36:12
Speaker 2: We like, why did we force in Dallas here where
36:15
Speaker 2: it's like such.
36:16
Speaker 1: A we don't have to, we don't have to, Like
36:18
Speaker 1: I think we're I think we're getting to a point
36:20
Speaker 1: where there might be six games that that we're talking
36:25
Speaker 1: about and four that we feel good about, and two
36:30
Speaker 1: that we're gonna have to make a decision on. Yeah,
36:34
Speaker 1: it's Dallas is a coin flip.
36:35
Speaker 3: To me, Yeah, like Dallas cointh where I liked it.
36:39
Speaker 3: I told you I was just hoping I was gonna
36:41
Speaker 3: get to two. The pros are never gonna let that happen, right,
36:43
Speaker 3: I'm seeing some books now I think I haven't even
36:45
Speaker 3: put in the chat where it's like it's there's a
36:47
Speaker 3: bunch of ones popping up across the board now. So yeah,
36:50
Speaker 3: I guess the pros like Dallas.
36:52
Speaker 2: Like we do.
36:52
Speaker 3: But this, this, this number is good like this, this
36:55
Speaker 3: is a coin flip game. It should just be a
36:57
Speaker 3: pick remnus one on either side. So it's the number
37:00
Speaker 3: is right where it should be.
37:02
Speaker 1: When two teams meet, winning by seven plus points per
37:05
Speaker 1: game on the year in November or later, the favorite
37:09
Speaker 1: forty one percent against the spread the past twenty years.
37:12
Speaker 1: That includes Miami, that includes San Francisco. So when we
37:19
Speaker 1: talk about trends, because I think it's an important topic
37:23
Speaker 1: to me, the trend is to help compliment a lean
37:28
Speaker 1: or walk me back from a position where I'm not
37:31
Speaker 1: doing my best research and I can't figure put my
37:34
Speaker 1: finger on it, and the trend will help me walk
37:36
Speaker 1: away from a bad decision. It is not the reason
37:39
Speaker 1: to make the bet. It's sort of a it's the
37:44
Speaker 1: final layer of the cake that we're building, and if
37:48
Speaker 1: I don't have it, I'm still going to enjoy the cake,
37:51
Speaker 1: but it just makes it a little bit more comfortable
37:54
Speaker 1: for me.
37:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say I find them fun. The biggest
37:59
Speaker 3: thing they're trying to get PEP. There's so many shows
38:01
Speaker 3: out there that are going to give out tons and
38:03
Speaker 3: tons of numbers, and this is this guy's get off
38:06
Speaker 3: speed on the edge, and this is why he is
38:07
Speaker 3: a better opportunity to get sacks than this offensive lineman
38:11
Speaker 3: who's get off speed is this on the other line? Like,
38:13
Speaker 3: I try not to do all of that because it's
38:14
Speaker 3: going to be boring to people over a course of
38:17
Speaker 3: eighteen weeks of the season.
38:19
Speaker 2: We're trends.
38:19
Speaker 3: It's kind of like the dumb person version of we
38:23
Speaker 3: can give you these stats. They're easy, they're smooth, especially
38:25
Speaker 3: when we get them from Evan, where it's like we
38:27
Speaker 3: can really make them very simple for everyone and it's
38:30
Speaker 3: easy to wrap a head around it, where it's like
38:32
Speaker 3: here's this number, here's a situation, this is how over time,
38:36
Speaker 3: how it plays out. That's what I like about trends.
38:38
Speaker 3: But yeah, people, if you're near to the show me
38:41
Speaker 3: and chat out. I don't think ever make bets just
38:43
Speaker 3: solely based off a trend, but if it's a trend
38:46
Speaker 3: that matches up with our opinion idea where it's like
38:48
Speaker 3: we like this number. Now, Evan's giving me a stat that,
38:51
Speaker 3: you know, the Mahomes stat. Mahomes is whatever it was
38:54
Speaker 3: nineteen and six against the spread when he's a dog
38:57
Speaker 3: or under a three point favorite.
38:59
Speaker 2: That's real.
39:00
Speaker 3: That's something to me and Chad like, we're going to
39:01
Speaker 3: use long term because we know it's a winner as
39:04
Speaker 3: long as that matches up back in the number we like.
39:06
Speaker 3: So those are just you know, end all be all trends.
39:09
Speaker 3: It's just a simple version of us giving you, you know,
39:12
Speaker 3: these numbers about why we might be on one side
39:15
Speaker 3: because the trends back.
39:16
Speaker 1: It probably worth it. At some point we should do this,
39:18
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell in the offseason, like remind people what we're
39:21
Speaker 1: thinking about when we like first pinpoint games. I'm looking
39:25
Speaker 1: at market overreaction. I tend to lean to look for
39:31
Speaker 1: are their home underdogs. Are there teams that have recently
39:35
Speaker 1: been blown out that are playing teams that recently blew
39:38
Speaker 1: someone out. Like to me, it's all about line inflation,
39:41
Speaker 1: and like, is there going to be that halfpoint point
39:43
Speaker 1: value in the line. For example, the Chicago Bears are
39:48
Speaker 1: hosting the Arizona Cardinals. You said the other day we
39:52
Speaker 1: should be taking the Cardinals. I was a little bit
39:54
Speaker 1: blind to it in the moment. I have some breaking
39:58
Speaker 1: news here, did some research. I'm a reporter, as you know,
40:03
Speaker 1: my Chicago contingent who you know for shadow reasons we
40:09
Speaker 1: should be running the Bears. We've decided to trade Justin Fields.
40:13
Speaker 1: We haven't announced it to the world yet. Justin Field
40:16
Speaker 1: is still going to play, is going to finish the
40:17
Speaker 1: season with us. And we decided, Kayleb Williams, we should
40:20
Speaker 1: be the number one pick that we take, and we
40:23
Speaker 1: decided we're going to trade Justin Fields to the Atlanta Falcons.
40:26
Speaker 1: Did some reporting. It's what I do the market. According
40:29
Speaker 1: to an NFL executive, fourth Fields will be a second
40:33
Speaker 1: round draft pick and a fourth round draft pick. I
40:35
Speaker 1: think we should get that from the Falcons, and I
40:37
Speaker 1: think we should also get one of their excellent interior linemen.
40:41
Speaker 1: That's my opinion. Meanwhile, like you said, we take the
40:45
Speaker 1: Cards here.
40:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully you got the four and a half. It's
40:52
Speaker 3: just the Bears have been bled, have been better. They've
40:55
Speaker 3: been playing much better too than the Cardinals. But are
41:00
Speaker 3: they worthy of being a minus four favorite at home? No,
41:04
Speaker 3: This is a team that me and Chat talk about.
41:06
Speaker 3: They get these leads, they're definitely a better team on paper,
41:09
Speaker 3: but they can't hold these leads like they struggle, especially
41:12
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter.
41:14
Speaker 2: We've seen them have a couple games and they just
41:16
Speaker 2: let teams come back in It.
41:17
Speaker 3: So way too big of a number, especially for Kyler Murray,
41:21
Speaker 3: who is also auditioning to be probably on a new
41:23
Speaker 3: team next year, which again nothing said in Stone we
41:28
Speaker 3: talked this offseason. I heard a bunch of rumors that
41:31
Speaker 3: they were trying to move them and people couldn't make
41:33
Speaker 3: the money work because it was like fifty million against
41:35
Speaker 3: the dead cap. And you know, Kyler to me is
41:38
Speaker 3: still a very highly elite talent player, even when he's
41:43
Speaker 3: got a crap team there in Arizona. I mean, they're
41:45
Speaker 3: always still fighting, you know, against a really good point
41:49
Speaker 3: Natters defense.
41:50
Speaker 2: Last week, he was moving the.
41:52
Speaker 3: Ball pretty well Arizona, Like they're they're just a team
41:56
Speaker 3: that you know, I get why the public is totally
42:01
Speaker 3: off of them, but I am shocked how the public
42:04
Speaker 3: is coming so heavy on the Bears in this position,
42:06
Speaker 3: Like it's just a team that me and you talk
42:10
Speaker 3: all the time when they're a dog, especially over three points.
42:12
Speaker 3: We love them because we know they're gonna be in
42:13
Speaker 3: a close team, close game. Now they're a favorite at
42:17
Speaker 3: minus four. It just feels like that's too much for
42:19
Speaker 3: a BEARSS team that doesn't really deserve that kind of respect.
42:21
Speaker 3: So a little scary in the fact that I've heard
42:24
Speaker 3: for a couple of games, this feels like a professional
42:28
Speaker 3: trap where like it's just gonna be pro money being
42:30
Speaker 3: sucked in in here on Arizona.
42:32
Speaker 2: It's no public money.
42:33
Speaker 3: It just feels a little weird where they're giving us
42:35
Speaker 3: so many points, like why is this not three?
42:38
Speaker 2: Why are they giving us the extra four and a
42:40
Speaker 2: half four? So that's my only thing.
42:42
Speaker 3: I'm a little weary on it, where it's like they
42:44
Speaker 3: know what they're doing, they know like guys like me
42:47
Speaker 3: are gonna be sucked in on this number.
42:48
Speaker 2: So definitely a game.
42:49
Speaker 3: I'm I'm I'm happy to bet maybe make one of
42:52
Speaker 3: our five, but I'm definitely a little weary of the
42:54
Speaker 3: four because it's such a big number for this Chicago
42:57
Speaker 3: team to be catching minus four.
42:58
Speaker 2: It's crazy.
43:00
Speaker 1: Fifteen five and two against the spread on.
43:01
Speaker 2: The road like that, That's what I like.
43:05
Speaker 1: All right. So look, I made the San Francisco forty
43:09
Speaker 1: nine ers, who are five point favorites at home against
43:11
Speaker 1: Baltimore my executive decision. It may have been an emotional decision.
43:18
Speaker 1: In fact, it's purely an emotional decision. I just don't
43:21
Speaker 1: want to be rooting against Christian McCaffrey and our twenty
43:24
Speaker 1: five to one futures MVP bet. Knowing that he's got
43:30
Speaker 1: to have a massive game and the Niners need to win,
43:33
Speaker 1: that bet is worth more to me than the amount
43:37
Speaker 1: that we would potentially bet on this game or the
43:39
Speaker 1: value of this pick, even though I know in my
43:43
Speaker 1: head Baltimore is the right call.
43:47
Speaker 3: So that's that might be the most amateur you've sounded
43:49
Speaker 3: this season, Chad talking about your point, and I love it.
43:52
Speaker 2: I think I'm on the same boat where I want
43:54
Speaker 2: the MVP to come through.
43:55
Speaker 3: Dude, But I have I don't know, say I have
43:58
Speaker 3: five or six thousand hole invested in McCaffrey to get MVP,
44:02
Speaker 3: which would be a nice payday if it hits. I'm
44:05
Speaker 3: gonna have what ten times that amount this week on
44:09
Speaker 3: the Ravens. So it's like like I love futures, I
44:11
Speaker 3: love them to come through, but you talk to any professional,
44:14
Speaker 3: it's like, I don't give a damn about those futures.
44:17
Speaker 3: I want to win this week, this game. It's such
44:21
Speaker 3: a crapshoot with those futures that it's like, I get
44:23
Speaker 3: where you're coming from, But anyone listening to this, you
44:26
Speaker 3: cannot think that way.
44:27
Speaker 2: Ever when you're betting.
44:28
Speaker 1: It's just I made I admitted it.
44:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm just letting people know where it's like,
44:34
Speaker 3: you can't think that way. Maybe in Week eighteen, right,
44:37
Speaker 3: we take positions and we hedge. I mean last year
44:39
Speaker 3: was we had the dream of all dream scenario. We
44:42
Speaker 3: basically had the Jaguars at ten to one, eleven O
44:45
Speaker 3: one seven, eight to one to win the division. Last
44:47
Speaker 3: year they played against the Titans in the final week
44:50
Speaker 3: of the season and it's the easiest edge of our life.
44:53
Speaker 3: We literally took whatever it was, half the amount of
44:56
Speaker 3: money we were gonna win easy hedge, put it all
44:59
Speaker 3: on the hes at whatever that was plus six plus seven.
45:03
Speaker 2: The game landed on four or five.
45:05
Speaker 3: Me and Chad hit our Tennessee on the number, and
45:07
Speaker 3: we hit the Jags season long. So it's a little
45:11
Speaker 3: harder to hedge these MVP bets. But at the same time,
45:14
Speaker 3: it's like, don't have to worry about this week. We'll
45:17
Speaker 3: deal with that in week eighteen. Maybe we'll be able
45:19
Speaker 3: to find a position to take. But yeah, I'm happy
45:21
Speaker 3: you came around in the Ravens. It's like it's not
45:23
Speaker 3: a play I'm going crazy about where It's like you
45:25
Speaker 3: got to take the Ravens. No, the forty niners are incredible.
45:28
Speaker 3: We could easily get blown out here. It's more that
45:30
Speaker 3: we're just playing the number. That what I said, like
45:32
Speaker 3: this numbers too inflated. Evan gave us the trends about
45:35
Speaker 3: the Ravens as an underdog. Lamar is an underdog.
45:38
Speaker 2: He's been very profitable, especially in this spot where the
45:41
Speaker 2: number is this big. He's been good to us. I mean,
45:43
Speaker 2: me and Chat talked about like the time we won
45:46
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs.
45:47
Speaker 3: We won by like I think a point, Like we
45:48
Speaker 3: got really lucky and covered with the Chiefs against the Ravens,
45:51
Speaker 3: and that's why I remember the game because I remember
45:53
Speaker 3: sweating it really hard, and me and Chad needed it
45:55
Speaker 3: think for a five and oer week, and Lamar scares
45:59
Speaker 3: the hell out of you, like he's always putting his
46:01
Speaker 3: team in the best position.
46:02
Speaker 2: So that's why we're doing it right.
46:05
Speaker 3: We're getting a battle tested veteran quarterback here against as
46:08
Speaker 3: much I want to say pretty, he's not tested.
46:11
Speaker 2: He's not like. He's kind of a.
46:13
Speaker 3: Guy that this year when they had that bad run
46:15
Speaker 3: they lost those three games, he was concussed they didn't
46:19
Speaker 3: have Trent Williams. I think Deebo might have been out
46:21
Speaker 3: of those games too. He's really had when all the
46:24
Speaker 3: pieces are there. He's been really, really dominant in party.
46:27
Speaker 3: So totally get the hesitation for people out there. They're like,
46:30
Speaker 3: they don't they were with Chad and they want to
46:32
Speaker 3: have been in the forty nine er side.
46:33
Speaker 2: I know some pros are on the forty nine er side.
46:35
Speaker 3: I can tell you most of the pros I talked to,
46:37
Speaker 3: most of the guys betting this, they're on me and
46:40
Speaker 3: Chad or I guess Chad's side. Now the Ravens. It's
46:43
Speaker 3: like you just backed the Ravens here in Long term.
46:46
Speaker 3: We say all the time, this will be a winner.
46:48
Speaker 3: The trends back it up. It's a good spot to
46:50
Speaker 3: back them. So it's a game that I wasn't sure
46:53
Speaker 3: was gonna be our five because we were split on it.
46:55
Speaker 3: I felt like in my head I was getting ready
46:57
Speaker 3: for you to be like, No, I got to force
46:58
Speaker 3: in the forty nine ers and it was like, all right,
47:00
Speaker 3: I'll let chat put in this four nineers. But no,
47:02
Speaker 3: it makes me happy to know you've come around. And yeah,
47:05
Speaker 3: if we can get five and a half in contest,
47:06
Speaker 3: that'd be amazing. For five and a half on the Ravens.
47:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll check it out. And look, this is a
47:10
Speaker 1: Monday night game, so a reminder, we don't have an
47:13
Speaker 1: episode on Sunday for Christmas Eve. We want you all
47:15
Speaker 1: already we spend it with your families. But the good
47:17
Speaker 1: news is we can talk about it on Tuesday. On Tuesday,
47:21
Speaker 1: one of us will have been right. Both of us
47:23
Speaker 1: will have been right, one of us will have been wrong,
47:25
Speaker 1: one of us will have been wrong.
47:27
Speaker 3: Right on such a role that even Sata himself flew
47:30
Speaker 3: in to see if they were for real. And on
47:32
Speaker 3: Christmas Day they made believers of even the forty nine ers.
47:36
Speaker 1: We're gonna win regardless because we're going to get great
47:39
Speaker 1: content on Tuesday from the Monday night game. Before we
47:42
Speaker 1: get to our money line Underdog round Robin. Reminder that
47:45
Speaker 1: the week sixteen contest tiebreaker is total passing yards on
47:50
Speaker 1: Monday night. Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes
47:55
Speaker 1: a weekly article about the tiebreaker strategy, and the link
47:58
Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode. If
48:00
Speaker 1: you want to like up in the contest, good luck
48:03
Speaker 1: all right, dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot Doll.
48:11
Speaker 1: Some teams that I wrote down for our money line
48:13
Speaker 1: Underdog Robin, just to make it, you know, get some
48:17
Speaker 1: Christmas miracles going Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona.
48:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fun.
48:26
Speaker 1: We need one more. You put Minnesota, right, I didn't
48:30
Speaker 1: put Minnesota in there.
48:31
Speaker 3: I mean that's interesting. Houston, Texans are interesting. Let's go. Yeah,
48:37
Speaker 3: let's do uh undera say, I'm trying to find a
48:41
Speaker 3: good faith the public. I guess the Minnesota would be
48:43
Speaker 3: the best one, even though I have zero, zero, zero
48:45
Speaker 3: faith in that one. That's why maybe go find another one,
48:49
Speaker 3: just because I really don't have faith in it.
48:54
Speaker 1: The Ravens.
48:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do that. That'd be fun.
48:58
Speaker 1: All right, So let's do Baltimore Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina Arizona, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona.
49:11
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna do a special treat this week.
49:13
Speaker 1: One of my favorite emailers of the podcast. His name
49:20
Speaker 1: is Matthew O. Donnell. Okay, great guy, big fan of
49:25
Speaker 1: his and he's a big fan of ours. He has
49:28
Speaker 1: been emailing me about the Survivor picks because you know,
49:32
Speaker 1: we're out of it, but he's desperate for some advice
49:35
Speaker 1: because he's in a big money pool. He survives with
49:39
Speaker 1: Kansas City last week. He's down to ten guys left
49:43
Speaker 1: seven can use Philly his best options right now, Packers,
49:50
Speaker 1: Rams Denver. He's leaning towards the Packers.
49:55
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's why I hate Survivor. It's like
49:57
Speaker 2: I like all three of them. I don't know.
50:00
Speaker 3: I guess Packers right, like they need that win, but
50:03
Speaker 3: they're on the road.
50:04
Speaker 1: They're on the road.
50:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, Survivor. I like to tend to go with the
50:07
Speaker 3: home team. Oh man, oh yeah, we did, we did.
50:14
Speaker 3: We skipped the foxhol chat.
50:15
Speaker 2: God damn it.
50:16
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, we skipped the Foxhole. Um, well, let's
50:20
Speaker 1: finish Survivor and we'll go back to Foxhole. Let's finish
50:23
Speaker 1: Survivor and then my.
50:25
Speaker 3: Foxhil okay, uh here we go. I don't know what
50:29
Speaker 3: do you want to do here? I want to tell
50:31
Speaker 3: the guy to take the Packers, but they're on the road.
50:32
Speaker 3: Are we supposed to take Denver in the fucking snow
50:35
Speaker 3: again or.
50:36
Speaker 1: The Rams on Thursday night against a team the wise guys? Are?
50:41
Speaker 1: I think it's the Packers?
50:43
Speaker 2: Packers?
50:43
Speaker 3: All right, brother, we'll tell you got's a couple of losers.
50:47
Speaker 2: Tell you to go Packers, Maddie O D.
50:49
Speaker 1: We're taking the Packers. Meanwhile, I think our foxhole. I
50:53
Speaker 1: want to say it's Arizona, but we also know that's
50:55
Speaker 1: the least popular team. They're playing the least popular pick
51:00
Speaker 1: and the Bears. Was it really fox Holy?
51:02
Speaker 2: Right?
51:03
Speaker 1: You know at Atlanta?
51:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do Atlanta. That's a good Foxhole.
51:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's the only one left.
51:10
Speaker 2: Taylor Heininike is a favorite.
51:12
Speaker 1: Seriously, you know what you say like that, we're in
51:15
Speaker 1: the foxhol You know me, regardless of what's going on,
51:17
Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy.
51:18
Speaker 2: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
51:20
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
51:22
Speaker 1: Atlanta is the foxhol Sorry about that, Matt Mitchell. Thank
51:25
Speaker 1: you for Matt Mitchell. That was bad hosting. That was
51:28
Speaker 1: that was my fault.
51:29
Speaker 3: I know you guys are too busy with visions fucking
51:32
Speaker 3: sugar plums dancing in your heads to do your jobs.
51:34
Speaker 2: But I'm glad, glad, I'm here.
51:36
Speaker 1: Listen, Matt. I appreciate you, and this will be its
51:38
Speaker 1: review season. I'll make sure that in the review when
51:40
Speaker 1: I credit you for pressing record on every podcast this year,
51:44
Speaker 1: which isn't always the case. Nice job. Everyone, give a
51:47
Speaker 1: hand to Matt Mitchell. I'll make sure to knock myself
51:50
Speaker 1: down for this and appreciate you for reminding us. Simon,
51:53
Speaker 1: let's make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor
51:56
Speaker 1: of the NFL, part of your game today. The holidays
51:59
Speaker 1: are new, hear Simon. If I climbed up on your
52:02
Speaker 1: roof and toss some Little Caesar's pizza down your chimney,
52:06
Speaker 1: would you still eat them?
52:08
Speaker 2: Yes? Chad. I would order.
52:10
Speaker 1: Online during our pizza pizza pre game one hour before
52:13
Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
52:16
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings
52:20
Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new motto?
52:24
Speaker 1: I just invented to delight your nostrils with that holiday
52:30
Speaker 1: musk fill your home with crazy crust. However you order
52:36
Speaker 1: your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning, everybody scores
52:40
Speaker 1: with convenient delivery or our in store pizza portal pick up,
52:44
Speaker 1: grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game. Also,
52:49
Speaker 1: don't forget catch every episode of the Favorites live on
52:53
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube,
52:56
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like, subscribe to the
52:58
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Simon, Remind everybody of your biggest
53:01
Speaker 1: bets this week.
53:06
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, because the last week was so good,
53:08
Speaker 3: I'm not going too crazy this week. Big bets I've
53:13
Speaker 3: made there right now that I guess sustantially for me
53:15
Speaker 3: would be I mean, right off the top, Ravens hit
53:19
Speaker 3: that one, hit the Panthers Atlanta, and then.
53:25
Speaker 2: I guess, I guess we're closing here.
53:26
Speaker 3: I'll probably canna end up bigger on Tennessee, probably end
53:30
Speaker 3: up a little heavy on the Texan, especially if it
53:31
Speaker 3: gets the three. But like, yeah, games I was better,
53:36
Speaker 3: like early in the week one of my bigger bets
53:38
Speaker 3: with the Buccaneers. I haven't put a single penny on
53:40
Speaker 3: that really since the numbers moved. So it is tough
53:43
Speaker 3: where It's like some of these games we don't know
53:45
Speaker 3: where the quarterbacks are, and that's why I'm a little
53:47
Speaker 3: hesitant to really get a lot of money down with
53:49
Speaker 3: the Tennessee number.
53:50
Speaker 2: I want to bet Tennessee. I need to know for
53:52
Speaker 2: a fact it's Tannhill.
53:53
Speaker 3: If it's you know, one of the other backups, I
53:56
Speaker 3: won't feel as confident betting Tennessee or so definitely be
53:59
Speaker 3: careful your people or we're lady in the season here.
54:02
Speaker 3: It's just you kind of want to save that bankrolling
54:05
Speaker 3: out at this point for the playoffs.
54:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was. You know what's funny, I was feeling
54:10
Speaker 1: the same way, like I have not been firing away.
54:12
Speaker 1: I'm feeling a little bit like I want to get
54:15
Speaker 1: to the games that really count in January either.
54:20
Speaker 3: I mean, most people are you know, they're a little
54:23
Speaker 3: tight in the pockets. They've just spent all this money
54:25
Speaker 3: on their damn yeah snip and other You don't just
54:27
Speaker 3: be blowing it on the on the Carolina Panthers, right,
54:30
Speaker 3: it's it's it's a.
54:31
Speaker 1: Little tight in the pockets. We're busy paying for auto
54:35
Speaker 1: repairs to the cars that your kids may or may
54:39
Speaker 1: not have hit the side of the house with when
54:42
Speaker 1: they were pulling out of the garage. We can't be
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Speaker 1: before we get out of here, it's time for Action.
55:27
Speaker 1: Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, the engine behind the
55:32
Speaker 1: great stats and nuggets you here on the show and
55:33
Speaker 1: across our network. Evan, you get the last word. The
55:38
Speaker 1: last word With Evan Abrams.
55:41
Speaker 4: We're finished talking what's up guys, So in honor of
55:45
Speaker 4: our producer Tito, we have to start with my favorite
55:47
Speaker 4: game of the weekend, which is Miami Dallas. Right now,
55:50
Speaker 4: you talked about it Miami minus one, but that minus
55:52
Speaker 4: one's getting very light, so Dallas might become a favorite soon.
55:55
Speaker 2: But let's talk about two stats.
55:57
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott six and thirteen right up in his career
56:01
Speaker 4: on the road versus over five hundred teams. That is
56:04
Speaker 4: one hundred and fourteenth of one hundred and sixteen quarterbacks
56:08
Speaker 4: since he was drafted in money line profitability. Now flip it,
56:11
Speaker 4: because I'm gonna give you this stat in a second.
56:13
Speaker 4: It's gonna explain why. So the Dolphins haven't beaten a
56:15
Speaker 4: team with a winning record since the Bills in Week
56:18
Speaker 4: three last year. They are zero to seven, the only
56:21
Speaker 4: team in the NFL without a win against the team
56:24
Speaker 4: over five hundred this week Cowboys Dolphins. First game between
56:28
Speaker 4: teams with twenty plus combined wins but just one win
56:31
Speaker 4: or fewer versus team's above five hundred and during the
56:34
Speaker 4: week in history never happened the Fraud Bowl. It's gonna
56:38
Speaker 4: be great. I can't wait. Moving on, I'm backing up
56:42
Speaker 4: you guys. So teams off will win and overtime are
56:46
Speaker 4: sixty four and seventy seven straight up forty five percent,
56:49
Speaker 4: sixty three, seventy seven and one also forty five percent against.
56:52
Speaker 2: The spread the last decade.
56:54
Speaker 4: The week after that is Cincinnati and Houston this week,
56:57
Speaker 4: so a bit of a tough spot. One more, were
57:00
Speaker 4: five hundred teams with a negative average point differential this
57:04
Speaker 4: late in the season one seven one, seventy nine forty
57:07
Speaker 4: five percent last twenty years.
57:09
Speaker 2: The only team the Bengals.
57:11
Speaker 4: So Zach Taylor three and eleven straight up on the
57:14
Speaker 4: road versus the AFC North.
57:16
Speaker 2: It'sis this season.
57:17
Speaker 4: It is Rudolph time, boys, So let's go Pittsburgh.
57:20
Speaker 1: Ah Evan made a Christmas.
57:23
Speaker 4: Pun finally the Chargers. We've all said it, We're all
57:26
Speaker 4: going to go with it. But teams as double digit
57:29
Speaker 4: underdogs after huge losses last twenty years after thirty five
57:32
Speaker 4: plus it's nineteen four and one eighty three percent, twenty
57:36
Speaker 4: eight plus thirty three to two twenty two and one
57:39
Speaker 4: sixty percent. So the more you lose by the better
57:43
Speaker 4: it is. So nineteen four and one for the Chargers.
57:45
Speaker 4: Let's see if they can get inside that number easton
57:47
Speaker 4: stick season boys.
57:49
Speaker 1: Oh man, that is the ugliest one on the board
57:52
Speaker 1: that I know. When it gets to thirteen on Saturday Night,
57:55
Speaker 1: and then to have to bet it to recap our
57:57
Speaker 1: Foxhole Atlanta's mind Atlanta one, Simon says, Carolina plus five
58:03
Speaker 1: exec Decision, San Francisco minus five and a half. Don't
58:06
Speaker 1: hate me when we put Baltimore in the contest Big Balls,
58:09
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus two and a half Our round, Robin Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona,
58:16
Speaker 1: the Faiths five for now, for now. If we had
58:20
Speaker 1: to put the picks in right now and again, we
58:22
Speaker 1: will do that after the show. If I look at
58:25
Speaker 1: my notes, Carolina, Atlanta, Tennessee, Arizona, Baltimore like Simon, all right?
58:34
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