Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - ‘Hours’ Away from Financial Crisis! | Bear Market in ‘Striking Distance’ + Stock Market News 03 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - ‘Hours’ Away from Financial Crisis! | Bear Market in ‘Striking Distance’ + Stock Market News 03 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Absolutely bleeding, miserable, miserable red morning.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: This morning it is, of course, all about the Trump tariffs, and I want to take the next, say, 15 minutes or so to walk you through what actually matters.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Not run you through the headline numbers because you've seen those, but actually give you some insight into what this means and where the opportunity lies.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: And I've got a nice little surprise for you there as well.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: The good news is that Winston is taking it in his stride.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: He's not too worried about the whole thing, but let me walk you through there.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: He is what we've got in store for you to make sure this is max value for you, the kind of briefing you get if you're working on Wall Street.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: That's always my intention.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: So the first question is is Wall Street actually surprised?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We need to answer that.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: How bad can this get?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: How much lower can we go?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'm sure many of you are thinking that today.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: If you're thinking that today, by the way, just put a two in the chat, and I know you're thinking about that.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: What about job cuts?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Are they adding to the fire?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: It's a story that's getting a little bit forgotten here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: And is there any good news?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: There must be something, surely right?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can dig something up and let me ask a question and answer it for you as well.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: What if this doesn't matter that much?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Seems odd today, but I'll explain.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: And where there is a crash, there is opportunity.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I want to focus on that a little bit today because, okay, a lot of twos here.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I'm loving that, because every crash is followed by what?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: A recovery, a rally, right.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: So there is an opportunity here.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: But we need to know, we need to position ourselves and we need to train ourselves to spot what is the opportunity here, because it isn't just the whole freaking market.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I can assure you that.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: And will the fed bail us out?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you when we're going to find that out.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: And before you buy, check this.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you one simple thing to check and we're going to find that out.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: And before you buy, check this.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you one simple thing to check and we're then going to look at some of the popular stocks, if we can bring ourselves to do that and then we're going to run a Q&A or, as I call it, a therapy session, because I think that's probably what we need today.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Does that sound good?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Is that going to deliver value to you, right Value in the chat.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So I know this is something that'll be useful for you and Winston and I will put up more of these.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: And Winston is thinking can you wrap this up so we can go and play with my ball please?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So we're going to do that.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: We're going to run through this as quick as humanly possible to make sure you get max, max, max, max, max, max value from this.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: That is entirely my intention here, so let's jump straight into it.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, loving all the values there.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Thanks, guys, a lot of values there.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant, okay.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So headline right from Bloomberg Trump tariffs set to wipe out nearly $2 trillion from US stocks.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: They're guessing the market isn't open yet, but they're not that far off.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: This is the pre-market.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Ah, nvidia down 6%.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Apple 7.7%.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Meta down 5.8%.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Amazon down 7%.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Tesla down 6%.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: These are not even the bad ones.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is worse in there and it's just across the board.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Absolutely everything, with the exception of a little bit of safety, fleeing into the likes of Philip Morris and Procter Gamble and Coca-Cola the sort of addictive drug pushers out there, but very, very little.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you've got something green in your portfolio today, you're one of the chosen ones.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: That one's, that's for sure.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So Now was Wall Street actually surprised?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: This is from Goldman Sachs, the bankers with a heart, some of the smartest investment bankers out there.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: It doesn't take a lot, but you know what I mean.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: In all seriousness, they are probably the most prestigious investment bank out there.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: What do they say?
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: This is their summary of this, and they're saying not good, this will hit GDP growth, push inflation higher, keep pressure on US stocks.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Uncertainty has not been tamed.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: With what we know right now, we are clearly looking at a very challenging day for the US stock market.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow Feels like a down 4%-ish type of session.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: We don't feel a lot better.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Not good, as some of my Germanic friends are writing in the chat here, as some of my Germanic friends are writing in the chat here, exactly so, okay, so we were surprised by just how bad this is right.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: How bad can it get?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Well, sorry to show you this chat.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: These are some of the bigger drawdowns in recent history and at present let me get a pen you might actually be able to see.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: At present we are here, as the French would say right, that is you, or rather the stock market, and, as you can see we've gone lower, right.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: This was 2020.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: This was 1987.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: This was 2022.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: This was 2007.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: This was 2000.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting, by the way, this is a 2000 type event.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting there's an anyway shape or form, because the economy is in pretty decent shape.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: But you could see how we might go somewhat lower right than the minus 10% we are right now.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: We might be minus 14% down by the end of today, the end of today.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So what do we do next?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, you'd think the economy is strong.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: That's a good thing.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Well, there is just one person, just one person who's cutting jobs faster than anybody, and that, of course, is Elon Musk, and he has cut an extraordinary amount of jobs 200-something thousand at federal workers.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: And that's what's spiking here unemployment, kind of feeding into this slowing economy story.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Right, it's like we've never seen a government try to do so much unpopular shit so quickly, which is, I think, why the market's surprised.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: They're like hang on, I thought we donate all this money to you guys, you just keep this machine rolling.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: And they're like no, no, we don't care.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: The market's surprised.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: They're like hang on, I thought we'd donate all this money to you guys to just keep this machine rolling and they're like, no, no, we don't care.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: It's a very, very unusual setup.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Now is there some good news?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, there is some good news.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Well, first of all, to understand, really, the tariffs, you've got to break it down by area.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So the Americas, as we shall call it.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Basically, tariffs are, as expected, on the lower side.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Canada, mexico, weren't part of this round.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: What about the Europeans?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Well, they're in lines.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Actually, america gets two ticks because we were lower than expected.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Europeans were as expected.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Asia is what got really, really hit very, very hard countries like vietnam and china, and you know that whole space got extremely hammered.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Taiwan also.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: But there are exceptions.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: There are exceptions steel and aluminium exceptions, auto and auto parts exceptions, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber bullion, and energy and other certain minerals are exempted.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So say to me why, uh why, nvidia is down six percent this morning when there is a specific exception in there for semiconductors?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: And that's the opportunity, of course, is that there is opportunity in this, but we don't want to be too early to it either.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Don't forget the Falkland Islands.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Yes, apparently the penguins need to pay something Now.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So what if this actually doesn't matter all that much.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Do you know what the US economy actually looks like?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: This is the US economy, us economy, slightly potato-shaped.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Now, 70% of that is you, the consumer, consumption, the US consumer, drives the vast majority of the economy.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: As long as you guys go out and you swipe that plastic, it's all good.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Nothing else really matters.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: And then imported goods and services are only about that much 14%.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Really not very much so in the scheme of things and I know the headlines are screaming and everyone's panicking and this is mainstream media and everybody trying to get their clicks, but this isn't actually all that much.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So this isn't going to collapse the US economy.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: We're not going to see the greatest recession of all time.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: We're not going to see queues of unemployed people.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Large companies like Microsoft and Meta and Netflix are not going out of business.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Walmart isn't going out of business.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Amazon's business model isn't over.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: No, that's all noise and nonsense and fear.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: And that's your opportunity if you understand that, if you understand what actually makes a fundamentally good company, and then you take the opportunity that the noise and the fear brings, and that's when you strike and that's when you make a lot of money.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: That's when you accelerate your journey towards early retirement significantly.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So where there is a crash, there is opportunity.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Just look at fintech stocks.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Explain to me how fintech is affected by tariffs.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Say, you're SoFi, you have student loans and mortgages and that sort of things.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: There are no tariffs on student loans or mortgages, or, you know, online trading or any of that.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: What about domestic software?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: What about something like Palantir?
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Right, predominantly in US business, us commercial, us government.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Tariffs don't feed into this.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Actually, they might benefit from tariffs because companies with complex supply chains might now spend more money on Palantir.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So there is opportunity here and I want to do something for you and I was working on something I was going to make available to some of you guys, probably in about two or three months, because I was just starting to work on it.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: But, given what's happening here and giving the many, many, many, many messages I've been getting from you guys in email and on Twitter and obviously also in our community, I'm going to pull this forward for you and I've been working on this all day, and I'll work on this all day tomorrow and all day Saturday so to make sure we are ready for you.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to run for you a live educational session and it is literally this I want to teach you how to pick great long-term stocks so you bounce back from this crash, you retire sooner, because these things are golden freaking opportunities, right?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: That's really what it's all about.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: And there is an element, of course, of protecting your money, and we talk about that a lot here, which is what I pinned it to the top of the chat here.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Actually it was TJ Pitt you wrote thank you very much, felix.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: You've already saved me over $100,000.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Please give Winston my regards, which I shall here.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: He is Winston.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: You hear that.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Yes, and that's obviously part of it.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: It's just to actually help you guys out.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So let me put that link for you in the chat here and I will pin that to the top of this chat.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: You can sign up there.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: We'll take a thousand people, it'll be live.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: We'll probably go for two hours, maybe an hour and a half, two hours depending on how many questions you want to ask me and I will give you the actual criteria that the most successful stock investors look at and that separates for you, purely with facts, the noise from the really good companies, because there are a lot of really good companies which are on sale right now, but don't rush quite yet into buying them.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Just come and join me on Saturday there that's 11 am, new York time at FelixRensselaerorg webinar, and I'll literally teach you how to pick great long-term stocks and it'll help you retire sooner, it'll help you retire better, and it's like, literally messages like this that make me do this, like C Danu.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: You wrote to me this morning, felix and Winston.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I'm so happy I listened to you, set up my hands, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: And we've been having a lot of chats and calls with our students over the last couple of weeks to talk them over.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Quite a few ledgers here and here.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I screenshotted that one as well.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So Garden Therapy signed up Brilliant, let's go.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So if you're joining me on Saturday morning, right, let's go in the chat and I'll, I'll know that you'll be there, and, and we're going to have some fun and we're going to, we're going to, we're going to make your portfolio great again.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Is that slogan overused?
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Yet I think it probably is on a day like this, right?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So, um, uh, brilliant.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: If you're in, yeah, right, right, let's go in the chat.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: If you, if you're joining me on set, uh, and, and I'll, I will.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: I woke up, smiling, honestly.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I looked at this and I was like Winston, this is freaking brilliant and and yeah, so you know we focus a lot on the trading community here.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I get that because I enjoy that sort of my passion, but more than half my money is in long term stocks and therefore I also you know study that I've got a lot of mentors in that space, so we know what works and I'm going to teach you that I'm loving all the let's goes there.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Brilliant guys.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: So will the Fed bail us out?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Well, there is one thing that I'd watch out for and this is a screenshot from our trade vision and that is tomorrow, at the auspicious hour of 11.25, not 11.20, not 11.30, 11.25.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: If the man is precise, fed Chair Powell speaks.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Listen to what he says, or at least read a summary of it.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I'll give it to you, of course, and that will be our first indicator of what does the Fed make of this.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're also getting Jefferson speak today, cook speak today, but there are the lesser Fed presidents we're looking for to the chair, we're looking to the anointed one himself, and that'll be at 11.25 tomorrow.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: So let's check that out.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Loving all the let's-goes here in the chat guys.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I look forward to seeing you there on Saturday.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: We're going to have some fun with this and actually just make investing fun, make retiring fun, make the money work for you so you can quit the wage slavery earlier.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: And you don't let crashes like this derail your plans right?
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: That's the worst thing.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Some people like this derail your plans right?
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: That's the worst thing.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So people work like 20, 30, 40 years and then boom, they're about to retire and something like this happens, you know, or something worse than this happens, and they get derailed and I want to avoid that.