Latest / Combat Veteran News / Russia’s Recruitment & Worker Crisis Deepens!!

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Russia’s Recruitment & Worker Crisis Deepens!! · Combat Veteran News

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We've all seen that idiot CEO who fires
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their entire cyber security department
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and then asks why they're getting hacked
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all the time. Buddy, you're the one who
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sent them all pink slips. Well, Vladimir
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Putin seems to be having the exact same
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problem as a Russian labor and
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recruitment crisis is rocking the
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Russian military and civilian sectors.
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And inexplicably, the Russians seem to
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have no idea why. But even more
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interesting is that the Ukrainians are
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actually having the opposite problem.
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Let's talk about it. So according to
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CNN, this is from an analysis by a
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Russian economist, Russian recruitment
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is estimated to be down about 20%. This
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is a huge crisis for Russia because the
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Ukrainians have made explicitly their
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goal to grind out 30,000 plus casualties
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from Russia every single month. But if
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Russia is only bringing in now 26,000 a
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month, well, it's obviously that gap is
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the difference between well winning and
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losing the war. Now the the economist
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estimates that this 20% drop is
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comparing first quarter last year with
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first quarter of this year. But this is
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been something that is also subjectively
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there's evidence for this subjectively
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as well. We know that Russia has
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recruited from prisons. We know that
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they have recruited North Koreans.
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They've recruited African migrants. Uh
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they have recruited uh they've offered
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uh debt payments of up to 200,000 USD.
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They've offered the waving of charges
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for individuals in pre-trial detention.
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They've found targeted university
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students in danger of failing out of
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school. They have targeted essentially
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every possible group who might feel
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backed into a corner and could possibly
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be lured away uh by these lucrative
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salaries.
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But there's a problem. Russia's defense
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industry is operating at full capacity
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and it's harder to expand the Russian
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military production to equip a and arm
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these fighters. uh as well. In order to
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do so, you have to have workers in
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plants and well, you can't take your
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able-bodied men and send them to die at
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war and also have them work in factories
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simultaneously. In fact, the entire
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Russian economy is is suffering from the
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most severe labor shortage in history.
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This is actually so severe that I think
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it's causing part of the decline of the
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Russian economy. This is something
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that's
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into the realm of the impossible. It's
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sort of like saying how can uh you can
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print so much money that people do end
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up becoming poor. Similar problem. How
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can everyone be poor if you all have
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money? Well, how can the economy fail if
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there's so much work to be done that
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there's no one to do it? Well, here we
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are. The this what's interesting is that
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the solution appears to be just like the
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Kremlin recruiting foreign fighters to
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fight. Uh they're also recruiting
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foreigners to work. Uh India, North
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Korea, and African countries are
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actually seeing large waves of
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recruitment into Russia, not to fight
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necessarily, but to work on construction
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projects. And it's
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very interesting because again, the only
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real option left to Putin is a forced
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mobilization, a draft. And this would
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exacerbate massively the economic crisis
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because again it would take those
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able-bodied workers and gut them out of
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the economy. But it would also create a
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a political crisis for Putin as well.
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But that's really it seems like the only
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option left for him because ultimately
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as we have talked about as long as the
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the recruitment efforts are voluntary or
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voluntary
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you have this situation where there are
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is a strata of Russian men who say I'm
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not going to serve in the military at
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any price and after a million casualties
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that's actually just a a reasonable
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stance to
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It's completely rational. And at some
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point economically, even in a country of
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90 million people, you're going to just
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run out of enough men every month who
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are willing to raise their right hand
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and say, "Sure, feed me to a Ukrainian
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drone, please."
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And it actually is a problem for Russia
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that there is a labor shortage because
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well
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you there's it's not like that shrinking
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pool of native men are short for work.
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They can earn comparable salaries in
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construction where there are well fewer
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Russian or fewer Ukrainian drones. And
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this is well a problem for Russia.
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Again, reportedly Russia needs about 2.3
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million workers. You may think, but
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Paul, there's only been a million
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casualties, a little more, 1.3 million
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now. But the answer is because that when
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the war started, many Russians fled the
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draft mobilization. And the more rumors
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of a mobilization spread, the more
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Russians are actually going to try to
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flee their country. But not all Russians
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fled equally. The people who fled Russia
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are almost always men because they were
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the ones who would have been drafted.
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But more importantly, they were men who
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had reasonable opportunities to work
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abroad. If you are a functioning
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alcoholic in a rural village in Russia
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with an intermittent work history,
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Germany or Poland or Turkey or Armenia,
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they're not clamoring for you to come to
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their country. If you're a Russian
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surgeon, if you're a Russian data
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analyst, a computer programmer,
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you know what? Someone will hire you in
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Germany, in Armenia. And that's a
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problem for Russia because again these
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are physically capable
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military-aged men who have fled
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disproportionately meaning that they are
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now short a lot of workers and they are
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recruiting again Indian men in a lot of
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cases. Uh they profile this article from
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Reuters profiles one man who says quote
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I have a contract for one year in the
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rubbish disposal business. The money is
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good. Uh interesting that they speak
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likely Hindi and English, not Russian.
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But I think this is actually really
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interesting because it reflects just uh
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how desperate Russia is. Prior to
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invading Ukraine, uh there were only
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about 5,000 work permits given to Indian
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nationals. Last year, that number
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increased by about um by about 35 times.
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72,000 permits were given to Indians. Uh
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and makes sense. Typically migrant
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workers in the postsviet country come
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from well central Asia uh Usbekiststan,
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Tajjighstan, Kazakhstan, uh etc. But
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they're literally out of Central Asians
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willing to go likely because some of
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them have been recruited and well
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there's already 2.3 million legal
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foreign workers that have entered Russia
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and it's still not enough.
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And there's a bunch of I mean there the
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problems every time you peel back a
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layer you find another problem that's
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sort of the situation rushes in at this
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point. Sure let's say you could wave
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your hand and get all the Indian
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laborers you need in and somehow they
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all speak Russian for some reason. Even
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if you did that there's a deeper problem
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and that is the Russian propaganda
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machine. See, Putin positions himself
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and has to position himself like every
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oligarch, like every wealthy uh
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dictator. He positions himself as the
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defender of the Russian people. Why?
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Because if he was just the the governor
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of a democracy and was like, I exist to
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serve voters. Well, those voters lives
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are marketkedly worse. And the voters
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have a lot of questions about Putin's
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massive personal wealth, about his
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network of corruption and unbelievable
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uh uh multi multi multi-billionaire
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uh allies in the Russian oligarchy.
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And that well, it can win you one
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election as we've seen in the United
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States, but it can't sustain you can't
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sustain an electoral win like that. And
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so in order to obtain popular support,
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what these guys do is say, "Yes, you're
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a poor Russian with no running water,
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and I control hundreds of billions of
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dollars and live in a life of luxury."
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However, um we are both tied through
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this thread of being Russian, and we are
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the Russian people. And even though our
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lives have nothing in common, uh I still
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identify myself as your representative,
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the representative of Russianness. And
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the we see something similar with
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Xihinping in China, right? With
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Hanchinese, right? The Hanchinese and
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the Mandarin speaking is the right way
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to be Chinese. And for example, say
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being a Muslim weaguer or a Tibetan is
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the wrong way of being Chinese and the
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Chinese state enforces that. It's not an
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accident. It's a feature of these
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systems where you don't you substitute
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the actual mandate of ele of an election
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win with the fantasy of well he looks
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kind of like me and speaks my language
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and says he's the same ethnicity as me
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and cultural group therefore he
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represents me even without an electoral
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process. All of that falls apart when
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Vladimir Putin imports millions of
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Indians.
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It's it's an ideological problem. And we
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know because Russia has pushed on the
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West, the anti-migrant narrative, the
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anti-immigrant narrative, spinning
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migration as a massive threat to the
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West despite the data being overwhelming
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that it's actually an economic boom for
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the West and actually is worse for
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Russia because Russia well has a is in
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demographic crisis. So
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this reality that Putin has boxed
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himself into is that he either needs to
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stand in front of the Russian public and
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be like surprise actually we need a lot
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of foreigners here to offset the
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Russians that fled the country or he
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needs to you know not bring in
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foreigners but say listen I I can't keep
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this war going mobilizing he has only
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these absolutely awful choices but
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what's really even more interesting is
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that Ukraine
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doesn't quite have the same problems.
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Now, before we talk about exactly why, I
10:47
want to mention, guys, that we are
10:48
fundraising for Ukraine's best unmanned
10:51
systems units. Um, we are getting them
10:54
so much the gear they need, uh,
10:55
particularly ground drones, something
10:57
that is hugely popular and in massive
10:59
demand at every unit because, well, they
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literally save lives and resupply
11:04
forward positions and evacuate wounded
11:06
soldiers in ways and from places that no
11:08
human being can get to. and heavy lift
11:10
transport drones for that last mile of
11:12
logistics and more. So, if you want to
11:13
help these guys out, uh the link is in
11:15
the description. This is a US501c3. It's
11:17
taxdeductible. Uh I think it's also
11:19
registered as a UK charity. Yeah, EU
11:22
donors. Uh again, it has an IBAN
11:25
account. Uh so, thanks to all you guys
11:27
that do support us. The link is in the
11:28
description. Now, here's the interesting
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thing. Ukraine has actually announced
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the opposite that they are exploring and
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figuring out programs to actually begin
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to rotate long-erving combat troops out
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of the military. Ukraine is planning on
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hiking military wages and recruiting
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more fighters abroad. Now, this says
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that the army is facing a manpower
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shortage after four years of Russia war
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with Russia. I don't I mean I think
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that's true but I think it's actually
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less of a manpower problem and instead
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focuses on instead on more quality of
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life issues. For example, Ukraine has
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obtained, thanks to a hundred billion
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dollar loan from the EU, uh, has the
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ability to actually increase the salary
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of its basic military wages by $700 and
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increase the salary of infantry soldiers
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to being 10 times that, $7,000 a month.
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And that also they're saying, listen,
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you can have a limited contract term for
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10, 14, or 24 months for direct combat
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duties. meaning that Ukraine actually is
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saying, "Listen, we may be able to
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rotate troops off of frontline
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positions, which is uh I'm going to go
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ahead and say that the rotation system
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for the Russian Federation is somewhat
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more draconian, i.e., you get put in
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position and you remain there until you
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get killed by a drone." Ukraine also
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wants to create more opportunities to
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recruit for foreign volunteers into the
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Ukrainian army. And I this is part of a
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long-standing effort, right, where to
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date about 10,000 foreign volunteers
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have joined the Ukrainian army from more
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than 70 countries. But Kee wants to see
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more of this. And I've heard
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subjectively that almost all units now
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have foreign recruitment efforts uh
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including even traditionally Ukrainian
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units like the 25th Airborne. You also
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see a lot of even foreigners serving in
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things like air defense units. And I
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think this is part of the idea to say,
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listen, foreigners can contribute
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manpower in whatever capability uh
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they're willing to. And I think also
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$7,000 a month is very appealing, right?
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I think it is just like Russia has
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recruited foreigners, I think a $7,000 a
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month paycheck would get a lot of
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people. It is shown already that
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Colombians, one of the uh South
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America's poorer countries and one that
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has had a very active insurgency going
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on for decades, has a really unique
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overlap where experienced uh multi-deade
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veterans of the fight against FARC say,
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"Listen, my military pension is very
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meager here in Colombia, and an extra
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700 to even $7,000 every month would go
14:10
a long way for my family, and I have one
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skill. kill, which is combat. And those
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guys say, "Well,
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I know where I can get helped out." In
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fact, in some of the Ukrainian foreign
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uh Legion, they say, "Listen, you can
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either speak Russian or Ukrainian,
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English or Spanish. You have to speak
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one of them." But that's but the fact
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that Spanish is one of the options is a
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sign of just how many Colombians are
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fighting in Ukraine.
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And again, a lot of these Colombians,
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uh, reportedly upwards of 7,000
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Colombians have fought in the Ukrainian
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armed forces, which is crazy. That
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implies, of course, that either the
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10,000 number is low, which I think does
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sound kind of low, and or uh the
14:54
the
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idea that seven and 10 foreign fighters
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are Colombians. I I you know, I actually
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could believe it. 40% of all foreigners
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fighting today in Ukraine are Colombian.
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I I kind of believe that.
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And I think
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this is a sign that again I think the
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foreigners may believe they're going to
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get a fair shake in Ukraine. I think
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that's probably true. Um but I think the
15:21
deepest story is again that in Ukraine
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it's not just
15:27
a military service members. It's not
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just air defense crews. It's not just um
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uh infantry units. It's also regular
15:35
workers too because remember Ukraine has
15:37
also had a lot of people flee Ukraine.
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There's expect estimated to be about a
15:42
million military aged men who have fled
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Ukraine at the start of the war as well
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as huge numbers of women and children. I
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think the number is something in in the
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realm of 6 to 8 million Ukrainians are
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living abroad. That's a problem for
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Ukraine because well again having been
15:57
there in in December of last year the
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civilian economy continues to function.
16:02
You can go to you can get McDonald's in
16:04
Kev. The Hark Mall is great, is awesome.
16:08
Uh the Hark Mall food court is like
16:12
phenomenal. As good as the best food
16:14
courts in the US. Maybe not the best,
16:15
but it's definitely a top 10%. Every OKO
16:18
gas station, by the way, slaps at things
16:21
rocks. Okay, so I say this because
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there's this thriving civilian economy,
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but a civilian economy needs workers and
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not always dramatic ones, right? Yeah.
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construction workers. Absolutely.
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Remember, every Russian bomb that hits
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has that building has to get rebuilt by
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somebody, by somebody who's, you know,
16:40
physically strong and capable. And well,
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those people tend to be in the military.
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So, you see increasingly that Ukraine is
16:48
bringing in migrant workers from India.
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Now, they profile, for example, a uh
16:54
apartment complex where the cleaners are
16:56
going to be an Indian company. They say,
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quote, "Our company is forced to take
16:59
this step due to a critical shortage of
17:00
workers." Now, on Ukrainian social
17:03
media, people are like, "Yo, what the f?
17:06
Ukrainian men are being killed and they
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say the nation is deliberately
17:11
destroyed. These Indian citizens are
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being shipped into us."
17:15
And I understand the frustration, but
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the reality is that a lot of these guys
17:18
aren't or migrant workers. And the key
17:20
with migrant workers is that they leave.
17:24
So I think this is something that is
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going to be a reality.
17:30
But again, Ukraine says, "Listen, we
17:33
need to have a clear and controlled
17:34
system to attract workers." Quote, "If
17:36
Ukraine seriously wants to attract
17:37
workers from Asia, Africa, or Latin
17:39
America in the future, migration
17:40
procedures will need to become faster
17:41
and simpler while remaining regulated
17:43
and controlled."
17:46
And of course, because there is no
17:48
Ukrainian airport operating, uh these
17:50
migrant workers also need visas to
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transit through neighboring countries.
17:54
Again, this is something where nobody
17:55
asks me as an American uh whether or not
17:57
I'm going to be like working illegally
17:59
in Ukraine. It's it's trivial. Uh but
18:05
I think the reality is, yeah, we talk
18:08
about the Ukrainian economy, the
18:09
Ukrainian agricultural economy. Sure,
18:11
this is all true, but there also needs
18:13
to be workers manufacturing. Someone
18:16
makes these drones. Someone makes those
18:17
UGVs and they need people, too. And so I
18:21
I I think what you're seeing again, this
18:23
there's a theme here that's emerging on
18:25
this channel because it's a theme in
18:26
real life, which is that we think of war
18:29
as being two guys in dirt shooting at
18:32
each other. But when you zoom it out and
18:34
you say, "Oh, well, they need bullets
18:35
and logistics and medical care and
18:37
strategy and tactics and planning and
18:38
observation and reconnaissance." But
18:40
then you zoom it out again and you say,
18:42
"No, they need to be part of a
18:43
strategy." But then you zoom out one
18:44
more time and you say, "Oh, they're part
18:46
of an economy. They're part they need to
18:49
have a salary. That salary has to buy
18:51
something. They have to know that their
18:52
families can are fed. There needs to be
18:54
food, water. They need to know that
18:56
there's medical care, a hospital staffed
18:58
by good people with proper equipment to
19:01
treat their injuries." You zoom all the
19:03
way out and you say the Ukrainian
19:06
government needs to collect tax revenues
19:07
to fund those things and you need to
19:09
collect tax revenues with a real
19:10
economy.
19:12
And when you zoom out, you realize that
19:13
the war is it's all of those things.
19:17
It's all of those things and more. It's
19:20
part of what makes modern war surreal
19:23
and so complex. It's the reason why the
19:25
Russian Minister of Defense is a career
19:27
economist. It's the reason why Ukraine
19:32
focuses its efforts on destroying
19:34
Russian logistics and that the Russian
19:38
troops they're become casualties just as
19:42
a trivial followon effect
19:45
and
19:46
you know the
19:49
like
19:51
labor in an economy is so important.
19:54
It's one of the two key components and
19:56
it's why when Ukraine gets a huge influx
19:59
of capital, of money, of euros, it it
20:02
changes the game. And then when you also
20:05
give them an influx of labor, you have
20:08
the two most important components to the
20:11
building blocks of an economy. And then
20:13
all you need there to make your economy
20:15
really rip is technology. And we know
20:18
that Ukraine has that in spades. Anyway
20:21
guys, thanks to Brandon, Alfred, Peter,
20:22
Mike, William, Thomas, Deborah, Paul,
20:24
and Jeff, as well as all the lieutenant
20:26
here folks. We couldn't do it without
20:27
you guys. We appreciate your support so
20:29
much, and we'll see you in the next one.
20:30
Cheers.