Latest / The DEX Show: A Show for IT Change Makers / 🎙️ Reality Bytes: Waymo on the Tracks (2026 Predictions)
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Welcome it, change Makers to the Deck Show with Tim
- 0:05Speaker 1: Flower and Tom McGrath.
- 0:07Speaker 2: Let's get into it.
- 0:09Speaker 3: Hello change Makers, Happy New Year, Welcome to twenty twenty six.
- 0:13Speaker 4: On the Deck Show. Welcome to twenty twenty six. I
- 0:15Speaker 4: should say on Reality Bites because the Deck.
- 0:17Speaker 3: Show has already gone live this year, and it's almost
- 0:22Speaker 3: it's almost a consistent tradition that we bring the Reality
- 0:25Speaker 3: Bites team together to do our predictions for the new year.
- 0:30Speaker 3: But I have to say, Tim, right, I something I
- 0:34Speaker 3: did in preparation for this episode was I thought.
- 0:36Speaker 4: Well, I will I will go back and I will
- 0:38Speaker 4: briefly look at everyone's predictions last year.
- 0:41Speaker 3: Not the kind of like hyper I don't want to
- 0:43Speaker 3: intimidate everyone from anyone from making their predictions, right.
- 0:46Speaker 4: I don't want to hold anyone too much to account.
- 0:48Speaker 4: But I thought it'd be interesting.
- 0:49Speaker 3: I thought it'd be interesting, and I noticed we didn't.
- 0:52Speaker 3: I don't think we did it last year, but we
- 0:54Speaker 3: did do it the year before. And just a word
- 0:56Speaker 3: about those to him, you had the best one because
- 0:58Speaker 3: you spoke in the beginning of twenty twenty four about
- 1:02Speaker 3: consolidation in the deck sector, so you were kind of
- 1:07Speaker 3: twenty five twenty twenty four, So I'm going back two years,
- 1:12Speaker 3: all right, this is this is what I did, and
- 1:14Speaker 3: you spoke about consolidation in the deck sector. So hats
- 1:16Speaker 3: off to you, mate. Cool, you were, you were all
- 1:19Speaker 3: that you were, You were a step.
- 1:20Speaker 5: Call me Nostrodamus of.
- 1:23Speaker 3: It plus Tim, Tim tre Damas nostradimnus and and Dina.
- 1:29Speaker 3: You blew my mind a little bit, right, because it
- 1:32Speaker 3: was on that episode that you brought like how you
- 1:36Speaker 3: brought the theme to the discussion about how prescient The
- 1:39Speaker 3: Matrix is, right and it being your favorite movie, but
- 1:42Speaker 3: also just how how prescient is And since we have
- 1:46Speaker 3: that chat, Dina, I have since rewatched The Matrix. I
- 1:49Speaker 3: rewatched it about a month ago with my eldest. I
- 1:53Speaker 3: was watching it for the first time and my mind
- 1:56Speaker 3: was blown, Like it was it's so eerie, right, you're
- 2:00Speaker 3: like you yeah, and they're just like ais.
- 2:04Speaker 6: Especially when you watch all of them together, like in sequence,
- 2:07Speaker 6: it gives you a different different perspective than just watching
- 2:11Speaker 6: the first the first one, the first part what twenty
- 2:14Speaker 6: years ago more or less, and then the remaining ones.
- 2:18Speaker 6: I think the latest was released a couple of years ago, right,
- 2:21Speaker 6: So when you're watching all of them together, and then
- 2:24Speaker 6: you see back then it was something that might have
- 2:27Speaker 6: happened science fictional movies kind of things. But now that
- 2:31Speaker 6: you're in it, it just feels different.
- 2:33Speaker 4: I have to you're in it. Now that you're in
- 2:35Speaker 4: a matrix, the matrix hits differently. I have to have
- 2:38Speaker 4: to say.
- 2:39Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, that's the thing, cause I haven't
- 2:42Speaker 3: seen the other two, but the first movie obviously a classic.
- 2:47Speaker 3: But yeah, the fact that it's made in the nineteen nineties,
- 2:51Speaker 3: I'm pretty I'm pretty sure it's like nineteen ninety nine
- 2:53Speaker 3: or something, right, And I think so people were still
- 2:56Speaker 3: kind of easy, having to make sure no one was
- 2:58Speaker 3: using the telephone when they were online.
- 3:02Speaker 5: And like you go on it.
- 3:04Speaker 3: It feels uncanny that it was able to, you know,
- 3:08Speaker 3: symbolically and in storytelling, just just nail the next like thirty.
- 3:14Speaker 4: Years seemingly right. Yeah, it is.
- 3:17Speaker 3: It is bizarre and extremely powerful, and you're bringing that
- 3:19Speaker 3: to the table, Dina.
- 3:21Speaker 4: Felt like a prediction in and of itself.
- 3:23Speaker 6: So we are thinking the same this morning, that we
- 3:28Speaker 6: should reflect on what our last predictions were.
- 3:31Speaker 4: Did you go look them up as us?
- 3:33Speaker 7: Yeah?
- 3:34Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So it's been, and I think moral
- 3:37Speaker 8: it's not just only on the predictions, on many of
- 3:40Speaker 8: the like multiple occasions throughout the year, we have hit
- 3:44Speaker 8: lots of things that are actually becoming a trend or
- 3:47Speaker 8: now is business as usual.
- 3:49Speaker 3: Not just our predictions dinner, but everything we say here
- 3:52Speaker 3: is gold.
- 3:52Speaker 4: Of course, it's all it's all gold. It's all unalloyed gold. Absolutely,
- 3:57Speaker 4: I completely can curry it.
- 4:00Speaker 3: Were there any of it you came across? Because I did.
- 4:01Speaker 3: Mine was a very quick look, Dean. Was there any
- 4:03Speaker 3: you came across this? We're you know from that those
- 4:06Speaker 3: episodes or others that felt particularly prescient to you from
- 4:09Speaker 3: anybody on the generally.
- 4:12Speaker 9: The ones where we are talking about how the new
- 4:16Speaker 9: use of the GPTs and such things will just remain personal.
- 4:19Speaker 9: But then now it becomes more and more into the
- 4:22Speaker 9: enterprise aspect of things, and companies are adopting it more
- 4:26Speaker 9: or less. So this is where it became interesting for
- 4:30Speaker 9: me to see.
- 4:31Speaker 6: But my predictions for twenty twenty six would be around
- 4:35Speaker 6: that transformational challenges and integration, meaning having the agentic enterprise
- 4:43Speaker 6: in action or seeing the agentic enterprise and action moving
- 4:46Speaker 6: from the pilots and the testing of all the GPTs
- 4:49Speaker 6: that we've been doing into real use cases and finding
- 4:53Speaker 6: KPIs or measures for the impact and the value of
- 4:57Speaker 6: what would be automated, maintaining of course the quality and
- 5:01Speaker 6: the compliance and efficiency of whatever we're doing on the smaller,
- 5:05Speaker 6: smaller tasks and day to day tasks versus what could
- 5:08Speaker 6: remain human controlled or needs to remain human centric. And
- 5:13Speaker 6: of course this highlights the human fingerprint and I think
- 5:16Speaker 6: we've spoken or mentioned this on the show a few
- 5:19Speaker 6: episodes ago, so not just in the day to day tasks,
- 5:23Speaker 6: but the overall value and how to get into the
- 5:27Speaker 6: journey aspect of things, not just to get a task done,
- 5:29Speaker 6: but have that correlative aspect of thinking ahead, just finishing
- 5:35Speaker 6: that task off, what is it going to be used
- 5:37Speaker 6: for next, and how you can keep on building on
- 5:39Speaker 6: top of it.
- 5:41Speaker 9: The last predictive bit is training humans to train AI
- 5:45Speaker 9: and AI to train humans, So it needs we need
- 5:47Speaker 9: to build that ecosystem of continuous improvement for both how
- 5:52Speaker 9: we are feeding information into AI and how it will
- 5:54Speaker 9: benefit us to actually help us train our songs to
- 5:57Speaker 9: get better at the task and automation aspects that we
- 6:01Speaker 9: do not just from the enterprise aspect, but I think
- 6:05Speaker 9: also on the personal use the improvement and the more
- 6:11Speaker 9: use cases are going to be there, the better quality
- 6:14Speaker 9: it would become very cool.
- 6:16Speaker 4: I'm keen. I'm keen.
- 6:18Speaker 3: I have to say to hear particularly keen to hear
- 6:21Speaker 3: orion Is today because I think as a bit similar
- 6:24Speaker 3: oreon Or.
- 6:25Speaker 4: Is that right, we have a bit of a crossover path.
- 6:27Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, I is going to say I totally agree
- 6:32Speaker 2: with a lot of what Tina's saying around One of
- 6:36Speaker 2: the biggest things I think we're going to see this
- 6:37Speaker 2: year is organization is trying to figure out how to
- 6:42Speaker 2: measure the impact of AI. That's something that I've been
- 6:45Speaker 2: talking to a lot of our customers about and it's
- 6:48Speaker 2: a big challenge and people are approaching it from a
- 6:50Speaker 2: lot of different angles. And I know that one of
- 6:53Speaker 2: the big components to that too is that I think
- 6:55Speaker 2: we're getting a little bit past the hype cycle into okay,
- 6:59Speaker 2: but what does AI really do right? And how can
- 7:02Speaker 2: it also go wrong? How can it be misused? How
- 7:06Speaker 2: do we make sure that we are using it in
- 7:09Speaker 2: human centered ways but also in business centered ways?
- 7:12Speaker 5: Right?
- 7:12Speaker 2: Like, both of those things are our major concerns on
- 7:15Speaker 2: the enterprise level, and I think on the personal level too.
- 7:21Speaker 2: We have both of those concerns. Right, There's how do
- 7:24Speaker 2: we make sure that it's giving us good information? And
- 7:27Speaker 2: then there's how do we make sure that we're using
- 7:29Speaker 2: it the right way. Two of the biggest things I've
- 7:32Speaker 2: heard in the conversations with our customers is, you know,
- 7:38Speaker 2: we kind of know which tools we want to use.
- 7:40Speaker 2: We know how to build some safeguards. But even with
- 7:45Speaker 2: approved tools, right, even when you have a good ecosystem
- 7:49Speaker 2: and process in place, there are still risks if you
- 7:53Speaker 2: put the wrong data into the AI, if you ask
- 7:56Speaker 2: AI the wrong questions, right. And I think that's one
- 7:58Speaker 2: of the most interesting ones, is which tasks do we
- 8:02Speaker 2: want to use AI for and which don't. And I
- 8:05Speaker 2: think that's one of the things we're going to hear
- 8:06Speaker 2: a lot about, is trying to figure out what is
- 8:09Speaker 2: an appropriate use of AI because AI means so many
- 8:13Speaker 2: things now, some of which are really incredible, like borderline magical,
- 8:17Speaker 2: and some of which are really dangerous. And I think
- 8:21Speaker 2: we're going to start seeing that sift out this year.
- 8:26Speaker 4: Would it be fat as a in a way or
- 8:28Speaker 4: on it? It sounds a bit like.
- 8:31Speaker 3: One way I was thinking about putting it myself, was like,
- 8:33Speaker 3: we'll see the first true AI crises this year, do.
- 8:36Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
- 8:37Speaker 4: And I don't even mean that as like a negative
- 8:39Speaker 4: prognosis on AI. I just mean whenever you have.
- 8:41Speaker 3: Something epical and epical technoquy, you know what I mean,
- 8:45Speaker 3: There's going to be crises, is going to be unpredictable
- 8:48Speaker 3: elements of it, right, Yeah, And we're.
- 8:50Speaker 2: Allready's starting to see that a little bit, right, So,
- 8:52Speaker 2: I mean I'm interested. I've been looking at some of
- 8:54Speaker 2: the lawsuits that are coming up right where AI gives
- 8:57Speaker 2: bad data and it can tend to business, and right
- 9:00Speaker 2: now it's mostly small businesses, and I think we're going
- 9:03Speaker 2: to start to see that scaling up. We've seen businesses
- 9:07Speaker 2: try to change their business model and then pivot back
- 9:10Speaker 2: because they realized that it wasn't quite sustainable yet. And
- 9:13Speaker 2: I think these really big gambles, I mean, you know,
- 9:18Speaker 2: sometimes really big payoffs and sometimes really big glasses, and
- 9:21Speaker 2: we want to start to I think I have more
- 9:23Speaker 2: frink discussions about that.
- 9:25Speaker 4: That's very fair and let's build up to you, Tim.
- 9:28Speaker 3: I think as our as our chief.
- 9:31Speaker 4: Prognostician, as our nostratenders, We'll hurt to yours last, But
- 9:37Speaker 4: I will because I'm going to insert my own one
- 9:39Speaker 4: here because the way I was thinking about it is
- 9:45Speaker 4: is okay. I mean, it might be just a bit
- 9:46Speaker 4: too generic and obvious a thing to say that it will
- 9:49Speaker 4: be a crisis around it. Of course, a lot, as
- 9:51Speaker 4: you just said, Orio so well, there's going to.
- 9:53Speaker 10: Be multiple ones, small ones, medium ones, and large ones.
- 9:56Speaker 10: But I want, I want to make a prediction that
- 9:58Speaker 10: may or may not come to pass about a particular
- 10:00Speaker 10: type of large scale crises that I anticipate. I think
- 10:05Speaker 10: there's going to be a crisis. It might be like
- 10:07Speaker 10: inside an industry or inside the economy, and the broader sense,
- 10:12Speaker 10: whereby some function that we you know, we we kind
- 10:16Speaker 10: of typically take for granted, could be could be HR,
- 10:19Speaker 10: could be accounting something like that which has been quietly
- 10:22Speaker 10: transformed through AI, has been quietly transforming itself through AI
- 10:27Speaker 10: and automating much more and outsourcing much more of what
- 10:30Speaker 10: it does to are they'll suddenly will suddenly notice something
- 10:32Speaker 10: isn't quite right working in a macro scale.
- 10:36Speaker 4: With that function.
- 10:37Speaker 3: We'll suddenly notice there's some kind of like mediocrity or
- 10:41Speaker 3: failure that's entered that function that people aren't quite sure
- 10:45Speaker 3: what it is, but there'll be a general agreement that
- 10:49Speaker 3: what it is in fact has been incautious or over
- 10:52Speaker 3: zealous or simply unpredictable, you know, an unpredictable consequence of
- 10:57Speaker 3: FAI transformation. So I'm going on a limb team. I'm
- 11:01Speaker 3: trying to follow your follow your lead there and say something.
- 11:05Speaker 4: Bold and that can be made, you know, that can
- 11:07Speaker 4: be way to the end of the year and hopefully successfully.
- 11:10Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'll I'll give you my kind of two cents.
- 11:15Speaker 5: It's not going out too far on a limb here,
- 11:18Speaker 5: But you know, AI conversational AI. We've been at it
- 11:23Speaker 5: for a couple of years now, but I think twenty
- 11:25Speaker 5: twenty five, this last year, we really got good at
- 11:29Speaker 5: prompt engineering, which basically means we've learned how to talk
- 11:32Speaker 5: with AI and it's learned how to talk with us.
- 11:36Speaker 5: Twenty twenty six. If twenty twenty five was the conversational
- 11:40Speaker 5: year of AI, twenty twenty six is going to be
- 11:43Speaker 5: the operational year of AI. And I think you've all
- 11:45Speaker 5: touched on this a little bit, but here's what I mean.
- 11:49Speaker 5: In twenty twenty six, AI is now going to move
- 11:53Speaker 5: from and we had a customer phrase it as I
- 11:55Speaker 5: don't want to chat bot, I want to do bot.
- 11:58Speaker 5: And it's going to do more of the work. But
- 12:01Speaker 5: right now, the co pilots and other agents that we're
- 12:04Speaker 5: working with, they answer questions, they provide advice and guidance.
- 12:09Speaker 5: But we're moving to a place where it's going to
- 12:11Speaker 5: take action and we're already seeing it right fixing issues,
- 12:14Speaker 5: making changes, orchestrating workflows, giving us AI coaching. And what
- 12:20Speaker 5: we're seeing though this year is it does it without
- 12:24Speaker 5: being prompted by a human. The human in the middle
- 12:27Speaker 5: isn't needed anymore, and that's where we run into the
- 12:30Speaker 5: big paradox. What's more important a productivity boost or a job?
- 12:37Speaker 5: Right it's coming down, So just trying to figuring that out.
- 12:41Speaker 5: So I think if I can kind of make maybe
- 12:43Speaker 5: make the parallel into the dex ops teams, dex is
- 12:49Speaker 5: digital employee experience, but dex is going to need to
- 12:54Speaker 5: start supporting the actual digital employees as well as the humans.
- 12:59Speaker 5: Right think about we've touted this concept of the death
- 13:03Speaker 5: of the help desk, Well there's this concept also of
- 13:07Speaker 5: the death of SaaS the death of software AI is
- 13:09Speaker 5: just going to run it all for us. But think
- 13:11Speaker 5: about the ecosystem that we operate in, all of the
- 13:15Speaker 5: cloud applications, all the local applications, the integrations that happen,
- 13:19Speaker 5: the variability and configurations that can differ from one app
- 13:22Speaker 5: to the next, and to replace that for AI to
- 13:25Speaker 5: come in and broadly replace that as a huge effort.
- 13:28Speaker 5: So what we're seeing and what we'll continue to see
- 13:31Speaker 5: in phase one is AI is just going to operate
- 13:35Speaker 5: the as is environments, but without the human. Right, just
- 13:40Speaker 5: automate things. Agents are going to log in, they're going
- 13:42Speaker 5: to execute tasks and run run our processes. But what
- 13:46Speaker 5: happens when that fails? Right, if the application crashes or
- 13:51Speaker 5: something's done wrong, there's no human to call the help
- 13:54Speaker 5: desk anymore. You have no tickets because there's no human
- 13:57Speaker 5: to call the help desk. So I give you an example,
- 13:59Speaker 5: and you talked about catastrophe. It could have been a catastrophe.
- 14:04Speaker 5: But I saw this video today. Think about what Uber
- 14:07Speaker 5: did for the taxi service. Right, it automated the orchestration,
- 14:11Speaker 5: but you still needed the driver. WEIMO is automating the driver.
- 14:15Speaker 5: You don't need the human to get you from place
- 14:18Speaker 5: to place anymore. But here's the catastrophe in the making
- 14:21Speaker 5: the video. I saw just today, Tom. There was a
- 14:24Speaker 5: weimo on a city street, busy city street, but the
- 14:29Speaker 5: street was the rails for the commuter rail going down
- 14:34Speaker 5: the middle of the city. And the weimo was right
- 14:37Speaker 5: in front of the commuter train. And thankfully the commuter
- 14:41Speaker 5: train was only going two or three miles hour. He
- 14:43Speaker 5: was able to stop and the passenger hopped out. He
- 14:45Speaker 5: didn't know what to do. But if that was a
- 14:47Speaker 5: if that was a speeding bullet train, there's a catastrophe,
- 14:51Speaker 5: and who takes the blame for it. There's nobody, no
- 14:53Speaker 5: driver to blame. So that that automation piece, I think
- 14:57Speaker 5: has got a long way to go. But so here's
- 14:59Speaker 5: my prediction is we're going to see that continue to
- 15:01Speaker 5: evolve and get better, and we're going to have more
- 15:03Speaker 5: and more of that paradox of productivity versus employment.
- 15:10Speaker 4: I got to bring it.
- 15:10Speaker 3: Back to you or honor, if you don't mind thinking
- 15:13Speaker 3: about that, that very that very vivid illustration of him
- 15:18Speaker 3: on the tracks, and the themes that Tim picks up.
- 15:23Speaker 4: On where you have that, you know that what what's
- 15:27Speaker 4: more important?
- 15:28Speaker 3: How did you put it him what's more important productivity
- 15:30Speaker 3: or a jobactivity or a job?
- 15:33Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a big question.
- 15:35Speaker 3: And I know this is a it's a theme you've
- 15:37Speaker 3: picked up on consistently in the past story, I know.
- 15:39Speaker 3: But what do you think that that points to you
- 15:41Speaker 3: for twenty twenty six?
- 15:44Speaker 2: I think I want to I want to almost challenge
- 15:47Speaker 2: that question a little bit, if it's okay. I think
- 15:49Speaker 2: one of my concerns is that you know, and here's
- 15:53Speaker 2: my thing. Anytime we ask and like two option questions,
- 15:57Speaker 2: I always ask, okay, but what's the third factor we're forgetting?
- 16:00Speaker 2: Because that's just my approach as a researcher. And when
- 16:05Speaker 2: we say is, I feel like the question is sometimes is.
- 16:08Speaker 4: The question between productivity and a job?
- 16:10Speaker 2: Because that seems counterintuitive to me in a way. And
- 16:16Speaker 2: I think one of the problems that I'm seeing is
- 16:20Speaker 2: that we're asking these questions and forgetting to look at
- 16:23Speaker 2: the context, and they don't see we as in us here,
- 16:27Speaker 2: but rather like socially at large. It's going to be
- 16:30Speaker 2: very easy to pose that question and then try and
- 16:34Speaker 2: weigh the pros and cons of two things that aren't opposite, right,
- 16:38Speaker 2: It's really what will help us achieve productivity, and I
- 16:44Speaker 2: think often the job is part of that, and sometimes
- 16:48Speaker 2: the job has to change, right, And I think that's
- 16:50Speaker 2: one of the things that we'll see is changing jobs.
- 16:55Speaker 2: My concern is a skeptic is often that they're not
- 16:58Speaker 2: going to change for the better. They're going to change
- 17:01Speaker 2: for the short term profit. And we've talked about this before,
- 17:05Speaker 2: right the sort of race to the bottom where you
- 17:08Speaker 2: can invest for long term productivity, profitability, sustained growth, or
- 17:15Speaker 2: for short term profit maximum impact that does not serve
- 17:21Speaker 2: your business in the long run. And I think that's
- 17:23Speaker 2: really to me. The question is, are you going to
- 17:26Speaker 2: invest in AI to make sure that you are on
- 17:28Speaker 2: the leading edge of adoption, or are you going to
- 17:31Speaker 2: invest in AI in a way that builds sustainable, repeatable
- 17:36Speaker 2: workflows that are going to support your human employees in
- 17:41Speaker 2: being more effective, maybe even be able to reduce burnout
- 17:45Speaker 2: because you are reducing that you know, boring work. Or
- 17:49Speaker 2: are you going to implement it in ways that increase
- 17:52Speaker 2: the dehumanization of work, that make work feel even more
- 17:56Speaker 2: impersonal and that remove a lot of the things that
- 18:00Speaker 2: make working in complex and challenging tasks enjoyable. Right, Because
- 18:06Speaker 2: I think all of us need some amount of challenge
- 18:09Speaker 2: in our work. That's what makes it fun and interesting.
- 18:13Speaker 2: And I want to do more of that and not
- 18:15Speaker 2: have the AI do that and have me having to
- 18:18Speaker 2: be like a spell checker for the AI. Right, should
- 18:22Speaker 2: be the other way around. So let's let's loose my
- 18:25Speaker 2: take going to be my take. Let's make sure the
- 18:27Speaker 2: AI is doing the laundry so we can do the
- 18:30Speaker 2: art and engineering, not the other way around.
- 18:33Speaker 4: Right, nice, less so less a prediction, more kind of.
- 18:40Speaker 3: Yeah, like a pertinent kind of crosswords or.
- 18:44Speaker 4: The overhanging theme or question.
- 18:46Speaker 3: Mark over the year, if you will or like it.
- 18:50Speaker 7: Maybe my prediction is there's going to be some like
- 18:53Speaker 7: optimistic and pessimistic takes on this. And the optimistic part
- 18:57Speaker 7: of me thinks that there's some companies who are really
- 18:59Speaker 7: going to kneel all that, and the pessimistic part of
- 19:01Speaker 7: me thinks that a lot of places are going to
- 19:04Speaker 7: do it wrong.
- 19:05Speaker 5: First, if that.
- 19:09Speaker 3: Makes sense, you heard it here first, everybody there will
- 19:11Speaker 3: be good and bad in twenty twenty six. That's at
- 19:15Speaker 3: best we can hope for. Perhaps, And Tim, I think
- 19:19Speaker 3: you've given us the title for the episode way Mo
- 19:21Speaker 3: on the tracks there more of a drugs cool way
- 19:24Speaker 3: on the tracks twenty twenty six predictions.
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- 19:51Speaker 1: Until next time,