Latest / Stephanomics / To Rebuild, Ukraine Needs Millions of Women to Return Home

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To Rebuild, Ukraine Needs Millions of Women to Return Home · Stephanomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, when people ask what the victory is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: for you for Ukraine, I usually agree with borders, coming
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: back to the borders of the nineteen ninety one. However,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: for me personally, victory is when Ukrainian families unite in Ukraine,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: not abroad.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Hello Stephanomics, here the podcast that brings you the global economy.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Ukraine needs its women to come home and soon. Almost
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: a year and a half after President Putin's invasion, the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: human cost for Russia's neighbor has been devastating. The Ukraine's
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: economy has also shrunk by at least a third, in
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: part because a large chunk of its female workforce is
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: no longer there. Policymakers in Kiev are acutely aware that
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: the longer those displaced families stay away, the more they
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: will put down roots in their host countries, and the
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: less likely it is that these vital workers will come home.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: In a minute, I'll talk to migration expert Marta Foresti
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: about the challenge facing Ukraine and the practical steps it
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  Speaker 2: could take to encourage its women to return. But first,
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  Speaker 2: here's our Ukraine Bureau chief in Kiev, Dasha Krasnoutska.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Oh here it is.
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  Speaker 4: They are. That's an air raid, an air raid siren,
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  Speaker 4: several of them going off here in the center of
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  Speaker 4: the Ukrainian capital.
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: When the Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine a year and
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  Speaker 5: a half ago, it's easy enough to forget the shock
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  Speaker 5: and cares that followed.
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  Speaker 1: Good morning from the Ukrainian capital Kiev.
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  Speaker 2: Gunfire and explosions have been heard here and in the
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  Speaker 2: second city of Kharkiv.
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  Speaker 5: Within days they had reached to the outskirts of Kiev.
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: There were gunfights in the city center. Millions of civilians,
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: mostly women with children, fled to safety abroad in a
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  Speaker 5: spectacle that was at the same time horrific and inspiring.
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  Speaker 5: Countries from Poland to Canada flunk opened their doors to
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  Speaker 5: take them in.
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  Speaker 6: Since Russian tanks rolled across Ukrainian borders, triggering a war
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  Speaker 6: that killed thousands of civilians, forced millions to flee, it was.
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  Speaker 5: Mostly women trying desperately to get their kids onto trains
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  Speaker 5: because men aged eighteen to sixty were banned from leaving
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  Speaker 5: the country.
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  Speaker 7: While many have returned already, there are.
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  Speaker 5: Still six point three million Ukrainian refugees abroad with no
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  Speaker 5: end to the war in sight. And that's a growing
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  Speaker 5: concern for Kiv because what if Ukraine's women don't come back.
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  Speaker 1: The majority of Ukrainian of people who left Ukraine, I
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  Speaker 1: would not rather call them refugees. I would call the
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  Speaker 1: people who temporarily left the country are women, and this
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  Speaker 1: are women with higher educational degrees. Secrety percent of women
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  Speaker 1: are with high educational degrees and although they usually have children,
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  Speaker 1: that's why they left.
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  Speaker 5: That's the Tiana Burshna, Ukraine's Deputy Minister for the Economy.
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  Speaker 5: Burshna is in charge of labor policies and is varied
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  Speaker 5: that the longer the women stay away, getting jobs, learning
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  Speaker 5: the local language, seeing their kids make new friends in.
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  Speaker 7: New schools, the less likely it is they'll return.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, when people ask what the victory is
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: for you for Ukraine, I usually agree with borders, coming
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: back to the borders of the nineteen ninety one. However,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: for me personally, victory is when Ukrainian families unite in Ukraine,
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  Speaker 1: not abroad.
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  Speaker 5: That matters for a lot of different reasons, but a
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  Speaker 5: big one is the The government has ambitious plans for
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  Speaker 5: Ukraine's recovery after the war. It aims to double the
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  Speaker 5: size of the country's badly damaged the economy by twenty
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  Speaker 5: thirty two. That's going to take huge quantities of investment.
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  Speaker 5: The World Bank says four hundred and eleven billion US
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  Speaker 5: dollars over a decade and is going to take a
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  Speaker 5: lot of people. The government says it needs to find
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: four point five million more workers in order to succeed,
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  Speaker 5: and getting all working age women back from abroad would
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  Speaker 5: cover about half that deficit. Alexeisakov at Bloomberg Economics ran
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: some calculations to estimate what the cost would be to
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  Speaker 5: the economy if none of the working age women among
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  Speaker 5: the refugees should return. The answer twenty billion US dollars
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  Speaker 5: a year, of ten percent of the economy. Even before
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  Speaker 5: the war's rank it by almost a third. So will
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  Speaker 5: they come back?
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  Speaker 8: All decisions about the buying made the women's.
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  Speaker 5: So this is all the Horokhovsky, co founder of Monobank,
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  Speaker 5: a mobile only bank service provider. If you didn't catch him,
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  Speaker 5: he said, all decisions about buying are made by women.
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  Speaker 7: In his own opinion, of course.
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, without women's and kids, economy will not worse. I'm
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  Speaker 8: sure his.
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  Speaker 5: Business has still grown since the start of the war.
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  Speaker 5: In part because it's easy for people to set up
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  Speaker 5: an account and bank on his app when they're on
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  Speaker 5: the move. But he has no illusions about that continuing.
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  Speaker 5: If the overall economy cannot grow too, it would.
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  Speaker 8: Be a super hard project because because of war can
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  Speaker 8: continuous quite a long time. Now continuous a long time
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  Speaker 8: more than one year. Yeah, people assimilate in a new places,
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  Speaker 8: the kids start going who their mothers, start working and
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  Speaker 8: find some job. So Ukraine has to motivate Ukrainians to return.
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  Speaker 5: In many ways, Ukraine will have to start from scratch.
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  Speaker 5: Antoine cities have been decimated in some basic infrastructure that
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  Speaker 5: had already been neglected for the thirty years since the
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  Speaker 5: Soviet collapse was damaged further, even without the constant threat
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  Speaker 5: from Russian missiles, this would be a very difficult task.
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: Here is mccola Capacina, who owns roadsted Terminal concord ALC,
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  Speaker 5: a shipping services company in Miclile.
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  Speaker 7: It's a port city in the.
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  Speaker 5: South that was on the front lines for much of
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  Speaker 5: the war, getting sheld on a near daily basis.
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  Speaker 3: The other side of the medal is that there's no
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  Speaker 3: jobs still for those Michelife citizens who want to come back,
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  Speaker 3: the logistics is still in the worse condition. The porter
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  Speaker 3: is blocked and all these facilities are blocked, completely blocked.
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  Speaker 3: So to make Mike alive absolutely attractive, the critical point
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  Speaker 3: is to restart the port activity.
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  Speaker 5: And for women, especially those with children, there are even
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  Speaker 5: simpler questions.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I would need to be sure that the situation
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  Speaker 4: in Ukraine is safe for my son on the first place.
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  Speaker 7: That is a very little coal.
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  Speaker 5: A forty two year old businesswoman who used to run
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  Speaker 5: a company in Kiev that help multinationals like Paramount Pictures
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  Speaker 5: to sell licenses in Ukraine. Now she has a job
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  Speaker 5: marketing consumer products in Frankfurt and her twelve year old.
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  Speaker 7: Son goes to school there.
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  Speaker 5: Two Valeria is well educated and speaks multiple languages, as
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  Speaker 5: does her son, which has made their transition a bit easier,
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  Speaker 5: but others are far more limited.
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  Speaker 4: There are a lot of people who flitted without knowledge
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  Speaker 4: of any language except the Ukrainian and Russian, and for
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  Speaker 4: them it's way way more complicated to get themselves to
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  Speaker 4: integrate in the society and so on. So most of
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  Speaker 4: those people are planning to get back to Ukraine just
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  Speaker 4: because they don't find themselves here.
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  Speaker 5: That won't be enough to attract those four point five
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  Speaker 5: million workers. Ukraine is developing several programs, such as bloans
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  Speaker 5: for soldier spouses to start their own businesses. It's also
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  Speaker 5: trying to reform labelers to close the genter pay gap.
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  Speaker 5: In Nikolai and other cities, schools and bus stops are
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  Speaker 5: getting bomb shelters.
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  Speaker 1: Because we know that even if the victory comes this
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  Speaker 1: Russia will be at our borderline, at our borders forever.
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  Speaker 1: That's why we need to be prepared to any other attacks,
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  Speaker 1: so the efforts and the safety measures will be better
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  Speaker 1: than before the full scale innovasion in Kiev.
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  Speaker 7: I'm Dorina Krasnosko for Bloomberg.
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  Speaker 2: News, so let me catch up briefly with Alex Iakov,
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  Speaker 2: who's a Russia and Central Eastern Europe economist currently based
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  Speaker 2: in Dubai, who I had asked to take a look
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  Speaker 2: at this question of the missing women refugees who've left
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine and what kind of hole that represents in Ukraine's future,
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  Speaker 2: and he very kindly came up with some numbers, a
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  Speaker 2: couple of which were included in that piece, but I
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  Speaker 2: wanted to get into it a little bit more. Alex,
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  Speaker 2: Thank you very much for joining us. It's a very
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  Speaker 2: striking estimate that you have that if if none of
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  Speaker 2: the around three million working age women who have ar
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  Speaker 2: reestimated to have left Ukraine since Russia's invasion, if none
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  Speaker 2: of them ever return, it would cost the economy twenty
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars a year, or about ten percent of the
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  Speaker 2: pre war GDP. I know that's a worse case, But
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  Speaker 2: how did you get to that number.
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  Speaker 6: We've basically had done our analysis into steps. First, we've
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  Speaker 6: looked at the employment rates among the prime age females
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  Speaker 6: in Ukraine and tried to understand which kind of proportion
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  Speaker 6: of these nearly three million females will be employed working.
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  Speaker 6: And then we've looked at the pre war data on
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  Speaker 6: the distribution of essentially a added venue produced by various
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  Speaker 6: industries in which those females have been employed before Russia's invasion.
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  Speaker 6: So what we do is we essentially account for both
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  Speaker 6: the volume of labor Ukraine lost and the productivity like
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  Speaker 6: the distribution between industries of that labor. And in additionally,
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  Speaker 6: as a third step in this cost we include the
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  Speaker 6: labor lost due to the families reunited abroad. Ukraine's Deputy
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  Speaker 6: Economy Minister Titiana brish Nai. She said, like the victory
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  Speaker 6: of Ukraine would be when Ukrainian families could be reunited
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  Speaker 6: within country, not outside the country. So even economic terms,
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  Speaker 6: families uniting outside the country will be costly for the
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  Speaker 6: country and will contribute to this loss of around twenty
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  Speaker 6: billion dollars of added value each year.
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  Speaker 2: And we see that impact. I guess already in what's
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  Speaker 2: happened to Ukraine's economy in the last year, because the
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  Speaker 2: sectors were you were looking at this that the sectors
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  Speaker 2: where women were most likely to be employed are also
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  Speaker 2: some of the sectors that have been most hard hit.
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  Speaker 7: Is that right? Yes? Correct?
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  Speaker 6: So Ukrainian economy has lost a third of its GDP
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  Speaker 6: last year to be precise, twenty nine percent, and we
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  Speaker 6: see that the largest damage has been incurred by the
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  Speaker 6: sectors that have like the largest gender imbalance. So if
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  Speaker 6: you look at hospitality and trade, this has the largest
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  Speaker 6: share of female employment and has been hardest hit. And
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  Speaker 6: or the other hand of the spectrum, the mobilization and
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  Speaker 6: other kind of things that are related to war has
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  Speaker 6: hit the predominantly male employment industries such as construction and.
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  Speaker 2: Transfer, and I guess it's striking. I mean, was the
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  Speaker 2: labor force participation in Ukraine higher than other countries. Of
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  Speaker 2: the women's labor force participation.
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  Speaker 6: That's true, So this is I think a deeper point
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  Speaker 6: which has like probably some upside to it. The labor
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  Speaker 6: participation rate in Ukraine for women is not that high.
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  Speaker 6: It's actually lower than for most of the developed countries.
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  Speaker 6: But on the other hand, the share of women in
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  Speaker 6: the labor force in employment is forty eight percent, and
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  Speaker 6: it's actually pretty high. So it's higher than in Germany,
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  Speaker 6: in the United States, in most of the European countries.
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  Speaker 6: And this is mostly due to demography. So this is
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  Speaker 6: not like a high participation rate, but it's actually related
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  Speaker 6: to the fact that women live longer, participate in the
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  Speaker 6: workforce longer than man, and there are more of them.
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  Speaker 6: So like this is the question mostly of demography, not
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  Speaker 6: of high participation rates. The upside here is that and
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  Speaker 6: we see that actually in a lot of post war
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  Speaker 6: reverse mitigration staties, is that when refugees former refugees go
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  Speaker 6: back to the company, they actually bring a lot of
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  Speaker 6: like social values and approaches to work, et cetera, et
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  Speaker 6: cetera from their host countries. And we could expect that
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  Speaker 6: labor participation for women post war will be higher.
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  Speaker 2: That's interesting. So it's not that they're more likely to participate,
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  Speaker 2: it's just that there are more women. But potentially we
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  Speaker 2: might see they might even be more valuable if we
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  Speaker 2: can get them back, if Ukraine can get them back,
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  Speaker 2: they might be even more valuable to the economy than
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  Speaker 2: they were before. And I guess final question, now it's
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  Speaker 2: used most of your time looking at the Russian economy.
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  Speaker 2: We've mentioned that the Ukraine economy has shrunk by a
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  Speaker 2: third since Russia's invasion. What's happened to the Russian economy?
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  Speaker 6: Russia lost a little bit more than two percent last
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  Speaker 6: year and it's on track to grow around one percent.
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  Speaker 6: Like it's mostly government spending. It's mostly given by a
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  Speaker 6: large expansion of public spending related to war and related
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  Speaker 6: to various subsidies. So it's probably not that sustainable and
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  Speaker 6: the growth race in the future will be much lower
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  Speaker 6: than they were in the past. But Russian economy seems
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  Speaker 6: to be like faring better than consensus expected.
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  Speaker 2: As you say, potentially not sustainable, but a pretty stark
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  Speaker 2: contrast with what's happened in Ukraine. Alex Kisikov, Thank you
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  Speaker 2: so much.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks Evanie.
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  Speaker 2: So we can round out this special program on the
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: missing women and children of Ukraine now by talking to
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Martha Foresti, a senior fellow from the UK Development think
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: tank ODI who was previously it's Europe director and senior
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: migration expert Marta. We've identified in this program a very
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: large hole in Ukraine's reconstruction plans, which Ukrainians are well
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  Speaker 2: aware of, but I'm not sure it's a big part
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  Speaker 2: of conversations outside the country. How important are those absent
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  Speaker 2: women to Ukraine's future?
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  Speaker 9: Thank you, Stephanie. And this is fascinating.
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  Speaker 10: Because, of course is a very particular feature of the
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  Speaker 10: terrible conflict in Ukraine and Russian's invasion that has men
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  Speaker 10: that so many women have fled, and now Ukraine is
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  Speaker 10: in this position and he needs, you know, to really
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  Speaker 10: find ways to attract them back. But we forget that
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  Speaker 10: this is a challenge that many countries have in trying
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  Speaker 10: to get people who leave who are often the most talented,
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  Speaker 10: the most you know, those with resources, those with degrees,
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  Speaker 10: and those with ambitions to come back to either a
• 16:44
  Speaker 10: construct or contribute to economies. And so it's useful to
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  Speaker 10: think about Ukraine given this specific aspect of the story
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  Speaker 10: that relates specifically to women. Also to challenge the perception
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  Speaker 10: that often is just men who flee, and so that
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  Speaker 10: there is no value to those who flee a country
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  Speaker 10: in search of protection and better future. So there are
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  Speaker 10: lots of lessons here and lessons in other countries, including
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  Speaker 10: you know, in other you know, European neighbors are all
• 17:13
  Speaker 10: struggling actually to attract back to their economies, both their own,
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  Speaker 10: you know, people who have left, but also to attract
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  Speaker 10: new migrants from neighboring countries to contribute to the future.
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  Speaker 10: And it's interesting that there is this debate in Ukraine
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  Speaker 10: already about whether you know, for the reconstruction it will
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  Speaker 10: be important to attract the women back, but also reach
• 17:34
  Speaker 10: out to try to attract other young migrants from neighboring countries.
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  Speaker 2: And I mean it is somewhat of a special case that,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the vast bulk of the people who've left
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  Speaker 2: the country have been women, and that's obviously there's a
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: very practical reason for that. But men are not allowed
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  Speaker 2: to leave given the security situation and the need to
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: be to be defending the country. But it's just as
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: as a byke as specialist. What special challenges does that
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: represent when you're thinking about a predominantly female migrant population.
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  Speaker 2: That's it's dispersed as we've heard, you know, we hear
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: in the program about they're in Brazil, they're in Germany,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: they're in Poland, they're in the UK. They are now everywhere.
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  Speaker 10: So the first thing to say, which is an important reminder,
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  Speaker 10: is that if you look at global migration figures, people
• 18:26
  Speaker 10: tend to forget that women migrate as much as men globally.
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  Speaker 10: Of course, there are very specific differences. We just mentioned
• 18:32
  Speaker 10: Ukraine with a very particular story. There is obviously more
• 18:37
  Speaker 10: men and younger men to you know, leave Africa towards
• 18:41
  Speaker 10: towards Europe. But generally speaking is important to recognize that
• 18:45
  Speaker 10: these days women migrate as much as men when it
• 18:48
  Speaker 10: comes to Ukraine. Of course, women's are key players in
• 18:54
  Speaker 10: modern's economies and so many countries around Europe. Think about
• 18:57
  Speaker 10: how many Southern European countries really struggle precisely because they
• 19:01
  Speaker 10: have low participation of women in labor markets. So it's
• 19:04
  Speaker 10: not surprising that attracting women back in such a priority
• 19:08
  Speaker 10: and in terms of the challenges that this particular experience.
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  Speaker 10: Of course, you know, a lot of these women fled
• 19:13
  Speaker 10: with children, and so the countries hosting in the first
• 19:18
  Speaker 10: place had to step up efforts with things like places
• 19:22
  Speaker 10: in schools and housing. But it's interesting to see also
• 19:26
  Speaker 10: in your article how many women have actually found opportunities
• 19:30
  Speaker 10: to contribute to local economies. Do we know that people
• 19:33
  Speaker 10: who leave, whether they live by choice or they are
• 19:36
  Speaker 10: forced to do so because of conflict. We know that
• 19:39
  Speaker 10: people who leave tend to be the most resourceful, those
• 19:41
  Speaker 10: who have talent, energy, often financial resources to do so,
• 19:45
  Speaker 10: so it's not surprising that they find opportunities where they go.
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  Speaker 10: But of course, with time, these women are now making
• 19:53
  Speaker 10: life and contributing to societies and economies elsewhere, and so
• 19:59
  Speaker 10: like other countries. In my own country where I'm now
• 20:01
  Speaker 10: in Italy, you know, interestingly enough, has a similar challenge
• 20:05
  Speaker 10: that you know, there are too many young, talented people
• 20:09
  Speaker 10: leaving the country and the country needs to attract them
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  Speaker 10: back to contribute to the future. And this goes hand
• 20:15
  Speaker 10: in hand with demographic trends which are common all over Europe.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: If we think of the sort of broader experience of
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: displaced populations and the challenge that potentially war torn countries
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: face in trying to attract these people back, people that,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: as you've identified, are often the most economically important and
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: skilled members of a country. In the case of the
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Bosnian War, there's still a large chunk of the people
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: who left have not returned. But elsewhere in the world
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: are there lessons for Ukraine.
• 20:50
  Speaker 9: So there are lots of lessons to learn.
• 20:52
  Speaker 10: And it's fascinating how bad we are at learning lessons
• 20:56
  Speaker 10: when it comes to people to move, because tragically it
• 20:59
  Speaker 10: interacts with, you know, such toxic and heightened sort of
• 21:02
  Speaker 10: political debate. It's sometimes it's really hard to see the
• 21:05
  Speaker 10: wood for the tree in terms of what's going on.
• 21:08
  Speaker 9: I mean, I think it's both things.
• 21:09
  Speaker 10: Are true that, you know, some people are reluctant to
• 21:12
  Speaker 10: go back, partly because they do find a life in
• 21:17
  Speaker 10: host countries and communities, But it is equally true that
• 21:20
  Speaker 10: so many people are the longing to come back to
• 21:22
  Speaker 10: where they're from, and particularly people who were forced to
• 21:25
  Speaker 10: flee because of conflict. Really, you know, there is a
• 21:29
  Speaker 10: real determination and willingness to go back and find other
• 21:34
  Speaker 10: ways to contribute to reconstruction to wherever people are are from.
• 21:39
  Speaker 10: I have first stand experience of Si Leone, which is
• 21:42
  Speaker 10: a country that was until recently affected by a terrible
• 21:48
  Speaker 10: violent conflict. And I mean I've been working closely with
• 21:51
  Speaker 10: the mayor of Freetown, the capital of Serlio and who
• 21:54
  Speaker 10: are selfs spent you know, many of the war years
• 21:58
  Speaker 10: in the UK were she became an accomplished accountant and
• 22:04
  Speaker 10: got a degree from k universities and now you know,
• 22:07
  Speaker 10: is back as a mayor of the capital city and
• 22:10
  Speaker 10: determined to.
• 22:11
  Speaker 9: Make a contribution.
• 22:12
  Speaker 10: And I've been working with artists and creatives, designers based
• 22:18
  Speaker 10: in Freetown, and I was really struck how many of
• 22:20
  Speaker 10: them were so called the retornees, so people who chose
• 22:24
  Speaker 10: to go back after the conflict. We all know how
• 22:27
  Speaker 10: much remittances matter for local economic development, and of course
• 22:32
  Speaker 10: people bring back those resources when they return. But importantly
• 22:36
  Speaker 10: an after overlooked is the know how is the knowledge?
• 22:40
  Speaker 9: Is the network?
• 22:41
  Speaker 10: Is the you know, the inspiration that people find away
• 22:45
  Speaker 10: from home and they bring it back. And so I
• 22:48
  Speaker 10: was struck by how many of the local creatives that
• 22:52
  Speaker 10: are you know, really determined to support the reconstruction of
• 22:56
  Speaker 10: Seri Leone through the creative sectors. The creative economy that
• 23:01
  Speaker 10: so much can do to also portray a different story
• 23:04
  Speaker 10: about the value and the beauty of what gets made
• 23:07
  Speaker 10: in Sera Leone, and to attract the people to the
• 23:09
  Speaker 10: beautiful country that Sera Leone is. How many of them
• 23:14
  Speaker 10: are returnees, how many of them are women, and how
• 23:16
  Speaker 10: many of them are making the most of the connections
• 23:18
  Speaker 10: they built in the US, in the UK and elsewhere
• 23:22
  Speaker 10: to in you know, to make that happen. It doesn't
• 23:26
  Speaker 10: come without challenges. You know, there are also tensions between
• 23:29
  Speaker 10: returnees and those who do not have a chance to
• 23:33
  Speaker 10: leave again. Once again, people who leave tend to be
• 23:36
  Speaker 10: the better off, and so it's not you know, inclusion
• 23:39
  Speaker 10: doesn't come automatically. But I was really inspired by the
• 23:43
  Speaker 10: potential and the determination and the economic contribution and.
• 23:48
  Speaker 9: The know how.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: I wonder whether there are specific policies that in Ukraine's
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: thinking about how they approach online schooling, for example, which
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: many of the displays Ukrainian children are doing, but they
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: want to not have it, perhaps not offer it anymore
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: from September as a way of encouraging people to return.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: But of course it could have the opposite effect of
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: loosening the ties that had to continue to exist between
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: the children and their home country. Just from your experience,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: are there any particular policies that would be more supportive
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: of women thinking of coming back.
• 24:33
  Speaker 10: Well, let me let me let me mention two of them.
• 24:36
  Speaker 10: One you would expect, which is what again, a number
• 24:39
  Speaker 10: of European countries are all experimenting with, which of course
• 24:41
  Speaker 10: are fiscal policies and so making it easier and create
• 24:45
  Speaker 10: fiscal incentives, particularly for people who are likely to bring back,
• 24:49
  Speaker 10: also some you know, some financial resources to facilitate that
• 24:53
  Speaker 10: investment and to make it attractive taxation wise. And so
• 24:59
  Speaker 10: that's something that happens in a number of European countries
• 25:02
  Speaker 10: that can be sort of studied and applied and adapted to.
• 25:06
  Speaker 9: Different to other countries.
• 25:08
  Speaker 10: The other one, which might sound a little bit a counterintuitive,
• 25:12
  Speaker 10: but it's something I'm increasingly interested in, is that it's
• 25:15
  Speaker 10: really important to make sure that you know to to
• 25:18
  Speaker 10: make sure that those who come back can also leave again.
• 25:22
  Speaker 10: I've been looking, for example, recently at visa policies. If
• 25:26
  Speaker 10: you know, if somebody has a life and has connections
• 25:29
  Speaker 10: in another country, and if returning means that you're never
• 25:32
  Speaker 10: going to be allowed to leave again, you're really going
• 25:35
  Speaker 10: to think twice before you do so. So to really
• 25:38
  Speaker 10: create mechanisms and visas that can facilitate the movement of
• 25:43
  Speaker 10: people between you know, the countries of origin, but also
• 25:46
  Speaker 10: the countries where they're likely to have built at least
• 25:48
  Speaker 10: part of their life will be really really important. Again,
• 25:51
  Speaker 10: going back to my example of Sera Leone, it is
• 25:54
  Speaker 10: extraordinarily difficult through asierli national to obtain say a business
• 25:59
  Speaker 10: or visitors visas to Europe. We've done some analysis on
• 26:02
  Speaker 10: that and it's quite shocking, and it's the same in
• 26:04
  Speaker 10: a number of African countries.
• 26:06
  Speaker 9: Now.
• 26:07
  Speaker 10: It may well be that some of those returnees would
• 26:09
  Speaker 10: have acquired passports in the process and they may come
• 26:12
  Speaker 10: back with you know, as we do, a nationality.
• 26:15
  Speaker 9: But that's not true for everyone. Not every country allows.
• 26:18
  Speaker 10: You to do so, and so thinking of visa regimes
• 26:21
  Speaker 10: that really facilitate your ongoing movement may be may well
• 26:27
  Speaker 10: be one incentive to facilitate returns as well as obviously
• 26:32
  Speaker 10: programs to ensure that can be successful or integration, particularly
• 26:36
  Speaker 10: when there are you know, say, drivers of the conflict
• 26:41
  Speaker 10: that mean that people the return might find themselves in
• 26:44
  Speaker 10: difficult circumstances, both financially but also in relation for example,
• 26:47
  Speaker 10: to ethnic tensions and other and other you know, and
• 26:51
  Speaker 10: other challenges. But these are some of the practical things
• 26:54
  Speaker 10: that could be thought of, which again in migration debates
• 26:57
  Speaker 10: are very very rarely consider that, given that all efforts
• 27:01
  Speaker 10: are still in trying to keep people away and not
• 27:03
  Speaker 10: to encourage people to go back.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: And that's a fascinating thought. I think I should definitely
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: get I hope it's already on someone's list in in
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Brussels or in the capitals, because as you say, it's counterintuitive.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Continuing from that, we clearly have made something of an
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: exception in our kind of political conversation in Europe. For Ukraine,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: the Ukrainian migrants are being considered just very differently to
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: migrants from other countries. Do you get a sense, Martha,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: that this conflict and these migrants have started to humanize
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: the face of migrant change the attitude to refugees more generally.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Are you hopeful on that? Not?
• 27:48
  Speaker 9: Really? Sadly not.
• 27:49
  Speaker 10: I wish I could say I wish I could say
• 27:52
  Speaker 10: I was, But it is precisely because this exceptionalism of
• 27:56
  Speaker 10: this crisis, but many other crisis you know, this tendency
• 28:00
  Speaker 10: to just deal with each of them as one ops.
• 28:04
  Speaker 10: It's something where somebody makes a superhuman effort rather than
• 28:08
  Speaker 10: really focus on the reality of people's movements across borders,
• 28:12
  Speaker 10: you know, looking for opportunities and jobs, to really try
• 28:15
  Speaker 10: to find the narrative around the movement of people that
• 28:18
  Speaker 10: challenges some of the you know, the scare mongerity and
• 28:21
  Speaker 10: the fears. And unfortunately, a crisis of any kind does
• 28:25
  Speaker 10: not resolve that. And in fact, my slight worry is
• 28:28
  Speaker 10: that we go from crisis to crisis, and at every
• 28:31
  Speaker 10: crisis we make it worse. The next one coming up
• 28:33
  Speaker 10: is the climate crisis, where we're all going to be
• 28:35
  Speaker 10: terrified of people being displaced a result of climate emergency.
• 28:40
  Speaker 10: And again, that doesn't make it easier to think of
• 28:43
  Speaker 10: policies and political narratives that take away the anxieties and
• 28:47
  Speaker 10: the fears and work with the practicalities of allowing people
• 28:52
  Speaker 10: to work.
• 28:53
  Speaker 9: Like that's a very concrete example.
• 28:54
  Speaker 10: Has the Ukraine crisis changed the dial and made any
• 28:59
  Speaker 10: programs on liberalizing policies to make it so that in
• 29:03
  Speaker 10: different European countries those who are seeking asylum can work.
• 29:07
  Speaker 10: The answer is no, largely we have created pockets of
• 29:11
  Speaker 10: you know, humanitarian response. We've seen you know, people opening
• 29:15
  Speaker 10: their houses to refugees, which is great, but that's not
• 29:19
  Speaker 10: what's needed. What is needed is a form of pragmatic,
• 29:23
  Speaker 10: rational and realistic, you know, suite of policies not just
• 29:29
  Speaker 10: about migration and migration control, but critically labor market skills, shortages,
• 29:34
  Speaker 10: demographic trends, where people come into a country, a country
• 29:38
  Speaker 10: being attractive to other people is actually a good thing politically,
• 29:44
  Speaker 10: and we're very far away from having made a case
• 29:47
  Speaker 10: for it.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Martapest, thank you so much.
• 29:49
  Speaker 9: Thank you, Stephanie.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Well, that's it for this entire series of Stephanomics. But
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: you can and the rest of your summer with Bloomberg's
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: economic insights and news on the Bloomberg Terminal website or app.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Mangus, Henrisson, Yang Yang and
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: Summer Sadi. The reporters on the Ukraine story were Mark Champion,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Andrew Langley, and Alexandra Kudritsky. It was narrated by a
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: Ukraine Bureau chief in Kiev, Dasha krasno Lutska. Special thanks
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: to alex Isikov and Marta Forresty. Molly Smith is the
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: executive producer of Stephanomics and the head of Bloomberg Podcasts
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: is Sage Bowmen.