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Fed Sparks Rally?📈Crypto Market Update🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Did the FED spark a market pump today. We'll break
0:02
Speaker 1: it down for you. Don't want to miss it, let's
0:04
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Speaker 1: to trade crypto. Let's go over to a couple other
1:09
Speaker 1: points I want to hit on, and this, of course
1:10
Speaker 1: is kobec hitting on bitcoins on track for its biggest
1:14
Speaker 1: daily gain since May of twenty twenty five, nearing ninety
1:17
Speaker 1: one k as timer recording, we had just clipped over
1:20
Speaker 1: ninety two thousand. We'll show you guys the charts here
1:22
Speaker 1: in a minute. In the last sixty minutes, one hundred
1:25
Speaker 1: and forty million shorts have been liquidated. We're starting to
1:28
Speaker 1: see market maneuvers happening after Chair Powell's announcement last night.
1:32
Speaker 1: I'll break that down, but there are a few things
1:35
Speaker 1: that could be causing some of this retlacement, and this
1:38
Speaker 1: is happening across all the all coins as well. I
1:40
Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick because this
1:42
Speaker 1: will break down ken stocks rally to the year end.
1:45
Speaker 1: Take a look.
1:46
Speaker 2: I was talking to somebody last week about what's like
1:49
Speaker 2: the most obvious thing that you think is going to
1:51
Speaker 2: happen that people still aren't expecting, even though it's obvious,
1:55
Speaker 2: like kind of joking around and the end. But the
1:58
Speaker 2: truth is they're going to buy these seven stocks. And
2:01
Speaker 2: I know how badly people want there to be a
2:04
Speaker 2: new narrative. I know how sick and tired people are
2:07
Speaker 2: seeing the same ten stocks at the top of the
2:11
Speaker 2: leaderboard quarter after quarter.
2:13
Speaker 3: Year after year.
2:14
Speaker 2: And I understand how people went overweight healthcare and energy
2:18
Speaker 2: and staples and some of the other areas that started
2:21
Speaker 2: to rally in late November as the AI story started
2:25
Speaker 2: to get a little bit shakier. But like in the end,
2:29
Speaker 2: these are the biggest, most liquid stocks, and contra the
2:33
Speaker 2: bubble narrative, you're not even expensive. Meta is a twenty
2:37
Speaker 2: two times forward pe. Like, what are we talking about?
2:41
Speaker 2: You're gonna tell me Costco at forty five is cheaper.
2:46
Speaker 2: In Nvidia is the second cheapest stock in the mag seven.
2:49
Speaker 2: It's got a forward pe now at twenty four. And
2:53
Speaker 2: I understand all the stories about competition, et cetera, et cetera.
2:57
Speaker 2: Not dismissing that, but again, this is the best company
3:01
Speaker 2: on earth and it's twenty four times forward earnings a
3:04
Speaker 2: multiple you have never been able to pay for a
3:08
Speaker 2: name with execution at this level all right.
3:11
Speaker 1: One thing to think about, guys. I wanted to go
3:13
Speaker 1: back to the late nineties and I want you to
3:16
Speaker 1: just go do a little history tour, because he is
3:19
Speaker 1: exactly right. There were a lot of stocks that many
3:22
Speaker 1: people were saying, Hey, the bubble is here. This is
3:24
Speaker 1: prior to two thousand when we did see the dot
3:28
Speaker 1: bomb occur and saw almost eight trillion come off the
3:30
Speaker 1: market cap of these stocks. But the point being is
3:32
Speaker 1: that there were a lot of companies that came out
3:35
Speaker 1: on the other side. And I think that's the real
3:36
Speaker 1: question is what winners are going to come out on
3:39
Speaker 1: the other side of the AI narrative. But also some
3:43
Speaker 1: of these mags seven because some of these are going
3:44
Speaker 1: to win, some of them are going to lose. I
3:46
Speaker 1: don't know which ones. But the point he's getting at
3:48
Speaker 1: this is still early, whether we like it or not.
3:52
Speaker 1: McKenzie also came out with a big report here and
3:55
Speaker 1: there were some interesting points that they hit on that
3:57
Speaker 1: I think you need to pay attention to. First, is
4:00
Speaker 1: this right here, here's the last twenty years. I've seen
4:02
Speaker 1: a radical reshuffling. This is my point. Look at back
4:05
Speaker 1: in two thousand and five, you had Microsoft at number three,
4:08
Speaker 1: look at that, you don't even recognize any of these
4:10
Speaker 1: companies other than Walmart. Bank of America was in there,
4:12
Speaker 1: Johnson and Johnson, HSBC now number one in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Aramco, Meta, Tesla,
4:23
Speaker 1: and TSMC. That's the difference that we've seen in this
4:27
Speaker 1: market in a very short period of time. If you
4:29
Speaker 1: look further into their chart, which I thought was interesting,
4:32
Speaker 1: is the positioning ranking that started to move, including a
4:35
Speaker 1: lot of companies in twenty twenty three around revenue share
4:39
Speaker 1: and market share of revenue. You got new players in
4:42
Speaker 1: there like Huawei, Jaumi, etc. That are playing a huge
4:46
Speaker 1: role in how technology is moving up. Further in this point,
4:51
Speaker 1: a report that I thought was also interesting is the
4:53
Speaker 1: investment by big tech players that escalate a near forty fold.
4:56
Speaker 1: So I don't know if this is the dot bomb
5:00
Speaker 1: era or not. What I do know is has a
5:02
Speaker 1: lot of similarities of new industries being birthed overnight and
5:07
Speaker 1: starting to ramp up quickly. And what I'm talking about there,
5:10
Speaker 1: of course, is crypto and AI. Those are the two
5:13
Speaker 1: categories that you've got to watch going forward.
5:15
Speaker 4: Here.
5:15
Speaker 1: For sure, there are some effects though that the market
5:18
Speaker 1: is starting to hit on crypto. One of them, course,
5:20
Speaker 1: is the Vanguard effect. Here's Balshun is talking about this.
5:23
Speaker 1: Bitcoin jumps six percent right around the US open on
5:27
Speaker 1: first day after the Bitcoin ETF ban was lifted. Coincidence,
5:32
Speaker 1: not necessarily. Vanguard, of course seems to have a little
5:35
Speaker 1: bit of a dj in in them, and of course
5:37
Speaker 1: that is what we're seeing right now. Do you think
5:39
Speaker 1: that is the case here? I don't know. Vanguard has
5:42
Speaker 1: not been a big proponent of bitcoin in the past.
5:44
Speaker 1: Now all of a sudden, guess what they are now
5:47
Speaker 1: on the bitcoin boat. So let me know what you
5:50
Speaker 1: guys think. Is Wall Street really the key here to
5:53
Speaker 1: putting the nail into the market to maybe get it
5:57
Speaker 1: to this next level or is this just a short pump?
6:00
Speaker 1: It was Hunter Horsley of bit Wise, now eighteen ETF's
6:04
Speaker 1: publicly traded funds in the US. I mean, this is
6:07
Speaker 1: crazy to have this many ETFs out there. In terms
6:10
Speaker 1: of open markets, diversified single asset equity options are coming,
6:15
Speaker 1: all these kind of things. This is a very interesting
6:19
Speaker 1: time because we were talking about Walmart, or excuse me,
6:21
Speaker 1: we're talking about Wall Street that is reshuffling the entire
6:25
Speaker 1: way that they're doing business and of course companies like
6:28
Speaker 1: Big Wise leading the pack there. Black Rock also hitting
6:32
Speaker 1: full steam ahead, with bitcoin ETF volumes surpassing one point
6:35
Speaker 1: eight billion in the first two hours two hours of
6:39
Speaker 1: trading today, so activity very active again on bitcoin. President
6:44
Speaker 1: Trump is course calling for the Federal Reserve to cut
6:47
Speaker 1: interest rates. What's new You've got? Diamond said that Powell
6:50
Speaker 1: should reduce rates. Now, that's an interesting new statement coming
6:54
Speaker 1: from Jamie Diamond. But I think what many people are
6:57
Speaker 1: looking at is the announcement that we saw last night
7:00
Speaker 1: by Chair Powell, and that was that Chair Palell didn't
7:03
Speaker 1: do anything. One thing though, that is coming, is this
7:07
Speaker 1: announcement right here. Trump says he's going to deliver a
7:09
Speaker 1: major announcement today. As we're recording, it has not been delivered,
7:12
Speaker 1: but my anticipation is probably something around the Fed assignment,
7:16
Speaker 1: whether that is Hassett or if he's got something else
7:19
Speaker 1: up asleep. You got it. With Trump, he comes out
7:22
Speaker 1: with these no kind of no win announcements and then
7:27
Speaker 1: he hits one out of the park. So you don't
7:28
Speaker 1: know what you're going to get. We'll see, hopefully later
7:31
Speaker 1: this afternoon. Other thing you've got of courses Chairpal did
7:34
Speaker 1: not comment on the economy. You've got all of the
7:37
Speaker 1: world waiting at bated breath of what you're about to say,
7:41
Speaker 1: and he doesn't even talk about the economy. I don't
7:44
Speaker 1: know if he's trolling or if that was just something
7:47
Speaker 1: they're setting up for December the tenth. But one thing
7:51
Speaker 1: is for sure. They confirmed quantitative tightening is ended. And
7:55
Speaker 1: I think the fact that the market is pumping and saying, well, okay,
7:57
Speaker 1: he didn't hurt the market and tightening has ended, we
8:01
Speaker 1: have that confirmation. Where does easing begin? I mean people
8:04
Speaker 1: look to January as the possibility where easing could begin.
8:08
Speaker 1: You look at this right here in terms of poll
8:11
Speaker 1: we put out, was the Fed announcement of flop? What
8:14
Speaker 1: might trigger the next major moving crypto? Right now, regulatory
8:17
Speaker 1: process holding up very slightly at twenty eight percent, rate
8:21
Speaker 1: cut number two at twenty six percent, So people are
8:24
Speaker 1: really pushing the rate cut and the regulatory process, And
8:28
Speaker 1: of course I've talked to two analysts out of DC
8:30
Speaker 1: over the last thirty days. Everybody is still pointing at
8:33
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. And the concern is whether or not
8:37
Speaker 1: it actually gets done in the first few months, because
8:39
Speaker 1: you Remember, the government shutdown could happen again in January.
8:43
Speaker 1: You also have to have this huge defense bill that's
8:45
Speaker 1: going to be going through Congress. All of this could
8:48
Speaker 1: take a lot of power out of Congress and push
8:52
Speaker 1: what we will see in terms of the next crypto
8:55
Speaker 1: bill maybe down the road. And that's the concern that
8:57
Speaker 1: everybody has. Will Bitcoin hit one hundred and fifty? If
9:00
Speaker 1: you look at this December thirty first chart on poly market,
9:05
Speaker 1: we kind of zoom in on the graph right here.
9:07
Speaker 1: Look at the way that this kind of zoom in
9:10
Speaker 1: on that for you guys. Look at the way this
9:11
Speaker 1: is performed. It was almost forty percent just a couple
9:13
Speaker 1: of months ago. Look at the failure in this market now.
9:17
Speaker 1: People definitely not saying that that is the case for
9:21
Speaker 1: a December one fifty number, And that is the kind
9:24
Speaker 1: of scenario that we are seeing in the market now.
9:27
Speaker 1: Many people would say, well, maybe that is the time
9:29
Speaker 1: in which a market could actually spring forward. Some points
9:33
Speaker 1: right here would say, all right, if that's not the case,
9:36
Speaker 1: maybe all coins are on the move and many people
9:39
Speaker 1: leave that's the case that we could see all coin
9:42
Speaker 1: off season rally again into new highs in December. Let
9:46
Speaker 1: me know what you guys think, is that where you
9:48
Speaker 1: stand on this poll? Drop some comments down below. If
9:51
Speaker 1: you're not subscribed to the show, take some time get
9:54
Speaker 1: that subscription button right there. We do appreciate it. And
9:57
Speaker 1: there's a lot of you that are brand new viewers,
9:59
Speaker 1: and I know you're coming in from maybe stocks and
10:01
Speaker 1: bonds and maybe the traditional market real estate, a lot
10:04
Speaker 1: of investment guys that are starting to look at crypto
10:06
Speaker 1: in a different way. Well, welcome in. Let me go
10:09
Speaker 1: to a quick clip here, because this is where Bloomberg
10:13
Speaker 1: is talking about the market capacity for more pain. Take
10:17
Speaker 1: a look.
10:18
Speaker 3: I don't think the pain is over for crypto overall.
10:22
Speaker 3: Part of the reason that I have been negative, or
10:24
Speaker 3: the main reason I've been negative on crypto over the
10:26
Speaker 3: past five weeks and hence worried about the volatility seeping
10:29
Speaker 3: into the broader market, is the whole digital asset treasury
10:33
Speaker 3: company dynamic that with all the atfs and the leverage
10:37
Speaker 3: that is built around that, they are now a multiplier
10:39
Speaker 3: on the way down in the same way they're a
10:40
Speaker 3: multiplayer on the way up, so they amplify the moves
10:43
Speaker 3: in both directions, and many of them are turning into
10:45
Speaker 3: a negative kind of death spiral that as the stock
10:49
Speaker 3: price trades below their crypto holdings, the only logical move
10:52
Speaker 3: is to start selling down their crypto holdings to exacerbate
10:54
Speaker 3: the moves and the downside. Now most these companies have
10:58
Speaker 3: kind of chased it and are related to the trade.
11:00
Speaker 3: Micro strategy is the big one, and it's really important,
11:02
Speaker 3: and that's why their statement yesterday is a big relief.
11:04
Speaker 3: We know the seasonals are generally good. People chase your
11:07
Speaker 3: own trades. They talk about the Santa Rally. There's this
11:10
Speaker 3: idea that this is the time to kind of position.
11:12
Speaker 3: If you think we're going to make fresh records, why
11:14
Speaker 3: would you not get bullishnaire I am more worried about that.
11:17
Speaker 3: I think that we're probably going to get a hawkish
11:19
Speaker 3: cut from the Fed next week, which is going to
11:21
Speaker 3: be problematic in the margin, and I think that the
11:23
Speaker 3: crypto sector is going to have more and more downside
11:25
Speaker 3: and that's going to hurt the retail sector. When we've
11:27
Speaker 3: already got a K shaped economy pressuring through the cost
11:30
Speaker 3: of living and rising on employment at the lower end
11:32
Speaker 3: of the income spectrum. I think that's going to prectic
11:35
Speaker 3: pressure investor sentiment across the spectrum, which is going to
11:38
Speaker 3: add to volatility and make it harder in the short term.
11:41
Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of points he hit on there.
11:43
Speaker 1: One was the statement he talked about where Pal's going
11:46
Speaker 1: to have a hawkish cut. I don't know that I
11:49
Speaker 1: would agree with that in its entirety. The point that
11:52
Speaker 1: I would look at with palell is that he is
11:54
Speaker 1: holding on to this two percent target by the Fed
11:57
Speaker 1: in terms of inflation. Remember, a lot of you don't
12:00
Speaker 1: realize inflation is accumulative, so it continues to go up
12:04
Speaker 1: no matter. What the key is is what percentage does
12:07
Speaker 1: it go up? And what's acceptable for the American economy
12:11
Speaker 1: what's not acceptable right now? And I think this is
12:13
Speaker 1: where Powell is trying to fade the heat on. It
12:16
Speaker 1: is the job's position that we're in right now. If
12:19
Speaker 1: he comes in with a cut, which I think he
12:21
Speaker 1: will in December, I think the next steps moving forward
12:25
Speaker 1: is going to be forcing his hand because of the
12:28
Speaker 1: replacement that's going to be coming in right behind him
12:30
Speaker 1: that whether that is Hassett or someone else, the likelihood
12:33
Speaker 1: it's going to be a pro Trump administrative selection, and
12:36
Speaker 1: it's going to start. They are going to start cutting
12:39
Speaker 1: at will. We could see a full one point cut
12:43
Speaker 1: in the FED fund rate, and I think this will
12:45
Speaker 1: start to move the markets forward. Now whether that comes
12:49
Speaker 1: in March, April or May is the big question, because
12:54
Speaker 1: this is how the market will play into it. I
12:57
Speaker 1: want to go to a clip here from Brad Gersner,
12:59
Speaker 1: who's coming in from Altimeter, And you got to remember
13:02
Speaker 1: Brad is a one of the biggest vcs out there
13:05
Speaker 1: in Silicon Valley. He's been around forever, very tech oriented guy,
13:09
Speaker 1: and he made some interesting statements here. I want you
13:11
Speaker 1: to listen to take a look.
13:12
Speaker 5: As a hedge fund, we run very limited leverage. We
13:15
Speaker 5: certainly would not be levered bitcoin, and in fact, I
13:18
Speaker 5: commented on Twitter about it with respect to micro strategy.
13:21
Speaker 5: It works incredibly well on the way up, but I said,
13:24
Speaker 5: I didn't understand the strategy. And when I can't understand
13:27
Speaker 5: something that somebody explains, you know, time after time after time,
13:31
Speaker 5: that's a warning sign to me. And I think you're
13:33
Speaker 5: seeing kind of some of the unlevering that is occurring.
13:37
Speaker 5: Bitcoin this year is down ten percent, Gold is up
13:39
Speaker 5: fifty or sixty percent. I hope we can dispel the
13:41
Speaker 5: myth right one is a risk asset and one is
13:44
Speaker 5: not right. And so it doesn't mean that you should
13:47
Speaker 5: know own bitcoin. I own some bitcoin, and I might
13:50
Speaker 5: might be buying a little bit more, you know, as
13:52
Speaker 5: it comes down. But it is a speculative asset that
13:55
Speaker 5: over time will have more and more utility. But we
13:59
Speaker 5: have to be honest with what it is today, all right.
14:02
Speaker 1: So I think a lot of people do understand that.
14:04
Speaker 1: I think most people will follow our channel understand Yes,
14:07
Speaker 1: it's a speculative asset, and with these speculators of asset
14:10
Speaker 1: you have these wide swaths. I think the real question
14:13
Speaker 1: was how much will bitcoin come down? And I think
14:15
Speaker 1: the factor that we're going to see in terms of
14:18
Speaker 1: unwinding in the market is going to be triggered by
14:21
Speaker 1: a lot of these digital asset treasuries. To the point
14:23
Speaker 1: that Gershner is talking about, which is micro strategy going forward.
14:28
Speaker 1: Now with that, you've got to consider one other one,
14:31
Speaker 1: and of course that is BMNR. The leader of bm
14:34
Speaker 1: and R is Tom Lee. Tom Lee is predicting bitcoin
14:37
Speaker 1: win a new all time high before the end of
14:39
Speaker 1: January still and he's not given up on that because listen,
14:44
Speaker 1: they're not blinking on eth either eith just fell in
14:47
Speaker 1: their thirty percent, the treasury slid fourteen billion down to
14:51
Speaker 1: nine point seven billion, the stock is down twenty five percent,
14:54
Speaker 1: and they bought another one hundred thousand ethereum and now
14:57
Speaker 1: hold three percent of all ethereum and openly are chasing
15:01
Speaker 1: the five percent mark, which would be a huge amount
15:04
Speaker 1: of accumulation. And remember we've got the Fusaka upgrade. We
15:07
Speaker 1: just had Drake on to talk about that and what
15:11
Speaker 1: this might mean around not only the upgrade of what
15:14
Speaker 1: we'll see with eth a FED pivot possibly in play.
15:18
Speaker 1: Could the January shareholder meeting get dicey for mister tom Lee.
15:23
Speaker 1: I don't know. And again, some of this just may
15:26
Speaker 1: be playing into the cycle of where this market is
15:28
Speaker 1: going now for the market in general. This is Paul Atkins,
15:33
Speaker 1: new CC chair confirms crypto Innovation Exemption is launching in January.
15:37
Speaker 1: So that's a positive thing. We'll continue to see the
15:40
Speaker 1: SEC being pro crypto, which is all very good. Projects
15:43
Speaker 1: can now launch tokens and products fast without full SEC
15:46
Speaker 1: registration for the first time ever. That in itself will
15:49
Speaker 1: be a positive thing. But he was asked specifically around
15:53
Speaker 1: the issue of what could happen if we don't see
15:56
Speaker 1: Clarity go through. And what I'm talking about is the
15:58
Speaker 1: Clarity Act. What is the SEC do to deal with that?
16:02
Speaker 1: Let me go to this clip right here. Take a look.
16:04
Speaker 4: Can you do what needs to be done with crypto
16:08
Speaker 4: without legislation?
16:10
Speaker 1: And do you think that that can happen before the
16:12
Speaker 1: end of the year.
16:13
Speaker 4: But you know, we'll see. I can't prognosticate that, but
16:17
Speaker 4: we have enough authority to drive forward. I'm looking forward
16:20
Speaker 4: to having an innovation exemption that we've been talking about.
16:24
Speaker 4: Now we'll be able to get that out in a
16:28
Speaker 4: month or so, is what I'm hoping. We were impeded
16:31
Speaker 4: a bit by the government shutdown, obviously we couldn't work
16:34
Speaker 4: on things during that time. That we're on track and
16:38
Speaker 4: we will be able to forge forward with a crypto area,
16:43
Speaker 4: all right.
16:44
Speaker 1: So one thing to consider here, because the SEC has
16:46
Speaker 1: been in this position before where they're forward thinking or
16:50
Speaker 1: forward looking, both on a anti crypto position and now
16:54
Speaker 1: on a pro crypto position. If Atkins is saying what
16:58
Speaker 1: he means, and that is that the innovation exemption would
17:03
Speaker 1: essentially open the market up to no action, because that's
17:07
Speaker 1: the big concern everybody has is I'm not going to
17:09
Speaker 1: get accent on by the SEC until clarity can match
17:11
Speaker 1: up to it. Then this still may be a good
17:14
Speaker 1: enough kind of scenario playing into next year of where
17:18
Speaker 1: a lot of major companies could move quick because I
17:21
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are starting to realize if
17:23
Speaker 1: we don't move now, we miss the next major wave.
17:27
Speaker 1: So it's very possible. You can see even banks coming
17:29
Speaker 1: into this area. You could see major companies coming into
17:32
Speaker 1: this area because of the innovation carve out that they're
17:36
Speaker 1: talking about, and if it works, that could be all
17:38
Speaker 1: we need going forward. Now let me go to another thing,
17:41
Speaker 1: because this is getting into a clip from Raul Powell
17:44
Speaker 1: that talks about this cycle, because this is what everybody's asking,
17:48
Speaker 1: isn't this cycle not matched up with the previous cycle, etc.
17:51
Speaker 1: And I know everybody's a cycle person out there, but
17:54
Speaker 1: listen to what Raoul had to say about this. Take
17:56
Speaker 1: a look.
17:57
Speaker 6: Remember we've always said it's the business cycle stupid, is
18:00
Speaker 6: always the business cycle stupid. But basically it's following the
18:03
Speaker 6: ism and rates have been following the same pattern. You see,
18:08
Speaker 6: rates should have come lower. They need to come lower
18:11
Speaker 6: because we need to roll the debt we've talked about this.
18:14
Speaker 6: That's part of the everything code fundamental part an ism.
18:18
Speaker 6: Because rates are so high has meant that main Street
18:20
Speaker 6: has been screwed while Wall streets made money from debasement
18:24
Speaker 6: earnings versus scarce assets. This is the issue that they
18:30
Speaker 6: need to solve and they need to get rates lower.
18:32
Speaker 6: Why do we have an elongated business cycle that looks
18:35
Speaker 6: like virtually no other real other time? Is that in
18:38
Speaker 6: twenty twenty one to twenty two that actually extended the
18:41
Speaker 6: maturity of the debt from four years to five years,
18:45
Speaker 6: So that extension of the maturity of debt has pushed
18:48
Speaker 6: out the business cycle a year. The four year cycle
18:51
Speaker 6: this time around is a five year cycle. We don't
18:53
Speaker 6: know what the next one will be until we see
18:55
Speaker 6: where they all get end up getting refinanced when it
18:58
Speaker 6: comes back to four because they mustice to get some
18:59
Speaker 6: stuff the long end, or whether they shorten it because
19:02
Speaker 6: everything's in the short end. We don't know yet. But
19:05
Speaker 6: this one is a five year cycle, and this is
19:07
Speaker 6: what it looks like. Five point four year sign curve.
19:10
Speaker 6: Five point four year is the exact average weighted maturity
19:13
Speaker 6: of the debt. The ism should peak by twenty twenty six.
19:18
Speaker 1: Okay, two points sit on that. One is what he
19:22
Speaker 1: stated there in terms of the last debt cycle where
19:25
Speaker 1: it was elongated in terms of to basically place the
19:29
Speaker 1: debt into position, and what they're talking about is exactly right. Ism.
19:33
Speaker 1: If you go back here to this chart, this is
19:35
Speaker 1: twenty twenty to around twenty twenty two, and when it's
19:38
Speaker 1: above fifty, which is what we're zooming into right there,
19:41
Speaker 1: you can kind of see where we are today versus
19:44
Speaker 1: where we were back then. If it's above fifty, this
19:47
Speaker 1: of course indicates that the market is in alignment with
19:50
Speaker 1: it outside of the tech sectors, so everything butt tech,
19:54
Speaker 1: all this is basically going into what Roll's talking about,
19:58
Speaker 1: this business cycle, and we're not. So if he does
20:02
Speaker 1: think that this is happening, then seeing this going into
20:05
Speaker 1: the next cycle, and I'll throw out twenty twenty because
20:08
Speaker 1: that's the big COVID dip that we saw right there.
20:10
Speaker 1: But if you go back here even to twenty sixteen,
20:13
Speaker 1: there's the run up right there, small dip and then
20:16
Speaker 1: a boom in the ism moving on into what we
20:20
Speaker 1: saw in twenty seventeen eighteen. Of course that was when
20:22
Speaker 1: crypto was very young, but the point was the markets,
20:25
Speaker 1: of course, saw some big movements at that same time.
20:28
Speaker 1: So it's possible that he could be correct on this
20:31
Speaker 1: around business cycles because of the debt structure and the
20:34
Speaker 1: way it was done, and we don't know yet how
20:36
Speaker 1: it's going to be restructured. Because we're dealing with high
20:39
Speaker 1: interest rates, which is why we need lower interest rates.
20:41
Speaker 1: All of that plays into a thesis that could be
20:44
Speaker 1: going forward to what Raoul was talking about. And one
20:47
Speaker 1: thing that does play into the thesis is this right here.
20:51
Speaker 1: This surprised me, but Bank of America now is officially
20:55
Speaker 1: recommending clients to put up to four percent of their
20:58
Speaker 1: portfolio into bitcoin and crypto. Now this is a conservative,
21:03
Speaker 1: major conservative bank. If a conservative bank is pushing to
21:06
Speaker 1: four percent, imagine what a private office is doing. What
21:10
Speaker 1: we're seeing around family groups, trusts, and then going in
21:14
Speaker 1: to manage capital. All of that could now be pushing
21:17
Speaker 1: into above the five percent, into maybe close to ten.
21:20
Speaker 1: That's where we are leading right now, and unlocking capital
21:24
Speaker 1: is a big trigger going forward. This is something I
21:26
Speaker 1: talked about with an analyst here recently. Is the capital unlock.
21:31
Speaker 1: I want you to think about this for a second.
21:33
Speaker 1: The amount of assets that are going onto RWA tokenized
21:36
Speaker 1: assets over the next eighteen months, compared to what we
21:40
Speaker 1: have assets available that are tokenized right now to what
21:44
Speaker 1: they will be in eighteen months, is dwarfed in where
21:47
Speaker 1: that market is going. What I mean by that is, imagine,
21:50
Speaker 1: if you're an old school investor, you've never had the
21:53
Speaker 1: ability to sweep accounts go out into DeFi do all
21:56
Speaker 1: sorts of yield farming on stable coins, et cetera that
22:00
Speaker 1: was available prior to now. Now if you look at
22:04
Speaker 1: the amount of market that is out there in terms
22:06
Speaker 1: of liquidity that could have access to that, those are
22:09
Speaker 1: the other things that could cycle into what Raul is
22:11
Speaker 1: talking about, which is liquidity flooding the market because of
22:15
Speaker 1: its ability to move so much faster in these new
22:18
Speaker 1: instruments that are being launched by Wall Street. So think
22:21
Speaker 1: about that. A lot happening in the market out there.
22:23
Speaker 1: We're going to continue to cover this because there is
22:25
Speaker 1: a lot happening right now. Bitcoin, of course on a
22:27
Speaker 1: huge run for the day, We're holding it about six
22:30
Speaker 1: point nine percent up on the day. Look at where
22:32
Speaker 1: we are on Salana also a ten percent move right here.
22:36
Speaker 1: Suy made a monster move almost twenty percent up on
22:39
Speaker 1: the chart right now, even link chain Link moving up
22:43
Speaker 1: eleven percent, XRP up seven percent, back up to twenty
22:47
Speaker 1: almost and of course as we get to get into
22:49
Speaker 1: some of the other assets, onto up some pengu one
22:53
Speaker 1: of the meme coins that we think still has an opportunity,
22:56
Speaker 1: up twenty five percent. Let me know what you guys
22:58
Speaker 1: are doing out there. Are you trading this cycle right
23:01
Speaker 1: now or are you looking for a retracement for Bitcoin
23:05
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23:08
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23:11
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23:13
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23:17
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23:20
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23:22
Speaker 1: out there on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you
23:25
Speaker 1: next time right here on the Paul Baron Show