Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Gareth Kiernan: Grocery prices up last month

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Gareth Kiernan: Grocery prices up last month · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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  Speaker 1: New grocery data from Infometrics and food stuff costs from
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  Speaker 1: supplies to supermarkets rose by two point seven percent in June.
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  Speaker 1: Costs in all departments ruped this year compared to last year,
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  Speaker 1: and around two thousand items increased in price between May
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  Speaker 1: and June. Joining men Ows and for Metrics chief forecaster
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  Speaker 1: Gareth Cannon, Gareth, good morning. Forgive me, Gareth, I've got
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  Speaker 1: to turn you on myself. Gareth, Gareth, good.
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  Speaker 2: Morning, right, yes, yeah, keeping problems on the first day.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry about that. Good to have you on the show.
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  Speaker 1: So tell me why is this still going up?
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  Speaker 2: There are still a few pressures coming in from overseas
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  Speaker 2: which have affected things in the last month. We're still
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  Speaker 2: seeing higher prices for cooking oil, coffee, chocolate, those sort
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  Speaker 2: of things. And there are also a few higher produce prices,
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  Speaker 2: a few fruit rising and price this month as well.
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  Speaker 2: But I guess the key trend is, Look, we're not
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  Speaker 2: seeing the same extended price rises that we're getting eighteen
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  Speaker 2: months ago when the index was up more than ten
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  Speaker 2: percent on a year ago. So it's been moderating over
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  Speaker 2: the last twelve months or so and we're continuing to
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  Speaker 2: see that trend happening.
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  Speaker 1: Is that is that coming down at a steady pace
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  Speaker 1: or is it Are you seeing a sort of a
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  Speaker 1: reacceleration of some of these items.
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  Speaker 2: There's a few individual items in there, but the overall
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  Speaker 2: index is can it continuing to come down at a
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  Speaker 2: fairly steady pace. It's still sitting I guess the growth
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  Speaker 2: rate is above what we saw pre COVID, where prices
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  Speaker 2: or costs were rising it you know, sort of one
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  Speaker 2: to two percent random So we're hoping for more moderation
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  Speaker 2: to be coming through. But there are still a few
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  Speaker 2: little bits of sort of stickiness and in terms of
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  Speaker 2: some of those prices.
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  Speaker 1: Yet how important are these prices for the prices that
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  Speaker 1: we pay at the supermarket?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, there are a significant component, of course of what
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  Speaker 2: ends up the cost coming through you in terms of
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  Speaker 2: what you're paying at supermarket. They're not everything. Labor costs
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  Speaker 2: and you know, commercial rent costs and electricity all those
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  Speaker 2: sort of things also feed through into the costs that
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  Speaker 2: supermarkets face and therefore the price that they charge you
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  Speaker 2: as well.
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  Speaker 1: Do you have any indication, I mean, are you are
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  Speaker 1: you able to take these numbers and put them into
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  Speaker 1: a fancy graph and then work out when this will
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  Speaker 1: actually start coming down, you know, or perhaps even turn
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  Speaker 1: the other way and go negative.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not expecting it to go negative. I guess
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  Speaker 2: what we've seen across the whole economy is that what
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  Speaker 2: we've had over the last two or three years through
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  Speaker 2: the pandemic and the sort of aftermath of that, is
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  Speaker 2: that you've almost had a step up in the level
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  Speaker 2: of prices overall, and I think food prices are not
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  Speaker 2: immune to that either. We are expecting now, I guess
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  Speaker 2: over the rest of the course of this year and
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  Speaker 2: into early twenty twenty five that the sort of last
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  Speaker 2: little bits of inflation that are still causing problems in
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  Speaker 2: the system, that they will sort of be weeded out
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  Speaker 2: and you will get price growth back to what we
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  Speaker 2: were used to prior to Covida.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time this morning, right
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  Speaker 1: to heave you on the program sixteen minutes half to find.
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  Speaker 1: That was Gareth Kennan, informatric's chief forecaster. For more from
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