Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Why did the market sell-off yesterday?
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
- 0:03is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
- 0:05registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
- 0:09the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
- 0:11or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
- 0:14not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
- 0:17your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
- 0:20any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
- 0:23this program do not endorse each other or their services.
- 0:26Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
- 0:28for referrals and are not affiliated. This is The Financial
- 0:35Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mark Vandetti, your exclusive look
- 0:39at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
- 0:43your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
- 0:46and market trends plus breaking business news every day. The
- 0:50Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
- 0:53Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
- 0:57heroes by visiting DAV five Boston and making a donation today.
- 1:02The DAV five K Boston is presented by Veterans Development
- 1:06Corporation faces the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mark Vandetti.
- 1:14Speaker 2: Chuck, Mark and Chucker with you here today, and as
- 1:17we kick things off, we're kind of trying to recover
- 1:22from what was a tough start to September and a
- 1:25tough start to the week in markets yesterday, with all
- 1:27three major indices down at least one and a half percent,
- 1:31the S and P down more than two the NASDACK
- 1:33down more than three percent, and the headline on the
- 1:35Wall Street Journal this morning, or rather late yesterday when
- 1:38it was published, was fears of economic slowdown spark stock
- 1:43market selloff. This you know, I guess if you want
- 1:47to try to point to, you know, some proximate causes. Again,
- 1:49no one knows exactly why anything happens in markets, but
- 1:53yesterday morning we did receive some negative manufacturing data from
- 1:58the Institute of Supply Management as well as from S
- 2:01and P. Both of them conduct surveys of purchasing managers
- 2:05and both of them had those surveys come in in
- 2:07pretty downbeat territory. And so what started off is maybe
- 2:13about a half a percent to two thirds of a
- 2:14percent sell off in the morning grew over the course
- 2:17of the day into a much larger selloff of a
- 2:20couple percentage points, and so we opened today a couple
- 2:24points down or a couple percent down from all time
- 2:28highs at this point. Mark your take on kind of
- 2:30what we're seeing so far.
- 2:32Speaker 3: I guess it's pretty universally agreed on and hard to
- 2:36deny that. The data that we get in between our
- 2:39quarterly GDP, which is the big one we all wait
- 2:42for GDP, though it's a little bit backward looking a
- 2:45little bit stale by the time we get the data.
- 2:47The data since the most recent GDP report, and GDP
- 2:51was healthy in the second quarter. It's worth remembering that
- 2:53two point eight percent on an annualized reel that is
- 2:55after inflation basis, that's way above what most researchers think
- 2:59is the economies speed limit.
- 3:01Speaker 4: So it was.
- 3:01Speaker 3: Healthy, then has it deteriorated a lot since then? Some
- 3:05of the employment data we've gotten, Chuck is as you know,
- 3:08as we've talked about in the couple months or so
- 3:11since that last GDP reading, has suggested that the labor
- 3:14market is easy. Good news for inflation. Is it bad
- 3:17news for the economy? Possibly, But those employment decisions were
- 3:21made in the second quarter when we know GDP growth
- 3:23was growing at two point eight percent real annualized. So
- 3:27I'm not going to buck the consensus. I'm not a
- 3:29macroeconomist that updates is forecasts every day. I'll leave that
- 3:33to the professionals, including those of the Atlanta FED, who
- 3:36do helpfully do GDP. Now for us that you talk
- 3:38about a lot which suggests ongoing solid economic growth. So
- 3:42I don't know, as you could probably tell, I'm contradicting
- 3:44myself a lot here. I'm a little bit confused. We
- 3:46seem to be at somewhat of a potential turning point,
- 3:48but then again, arguably we always are.
- 3:51Speaker 2: And this is something where the data for the last
- 3:54month is kind of coming a couple different waves. At
- 3:56the start of August, we received some again rather beat
- 4:00economic data, kind of in late July as well, suggesting
- 4:03the economy was slowing.
- 4:05Speaker 4: Markets sold off.
- 4:06Speaker 2: The second half of August, we got better economic data
- 4:10and so market's rallied in response to that, and now
- 4:14kicking off the week at least a few different data
- 4:16points suggesting some slowing again. And again I don't profess
- 4:21to have any knowledge as to whether this is specifically
- 4:24going to lead to recession or not.
- 4:27Speaker 4: I've said all along that I.
- 4:29Speaker 2: Think will really you know, have a much clearer picture
- 4:32by early October, you know, so we're we're within four
- 4:36weeks I think of having you know, a pretty good
- 4:38picture of what the trends are showing us.
- 4:40Speaker 4: But as I've said for.
- 4:43Speaker 2: You know, the last month or two, look, the soft
- 4:46landing is not something that is linear in nature. There
- 4:50are some days where a soft landing is going to
- 4:52look like the economy is reaccelerating. There other days where
- 4:56it's going to look like you're heading into recession. And
- 4:59that's the very nature sure of the soft landing is
- 5:01you kind of have to navigate the path between those.
- 5:03But it's not like every data point just perfectly lines
- 5:06up there you're like, oh, good, like the soft landing
- 5:08is here. Like No, there's some days where you're gonna
- 5:10say this is bad, and there's some days where you're
- 5:12gonna say, Okay, this is fine.
- 5:14Speaker 3: I know the phrase soft landing is in common use,
- 5:17but I'll make a kind of philosophical point. We've talked
- 5:20about this too. The economy never lands. It's constantly being
- 5:24buffeted by outside forces. This is why you have people
- 5:28who call themselves macro economists, with their big, elaborate models
- 5:32that can only be run on modern computers that are
- 5:35constantly getting updated. I'll refer anyone who's interested again to
- 5:38GDP now yesterday GDP now, which is a snapshot at
- 5:43a point in time. It's not a forecast, but as
- 5:45of yesterday or the day before yesterday, the data suggested
- 5:48that GDP was running at about a two point five
- 5:51percent pace this quarter. As of this morning, with yesterday's
- 5:55aforementioned by Chuck data, that figure is now two percent.
- 6:00So the economies and constant flux buffeted by forces positive
- 6:04and negative, some of them from outside the US, some
- 6:06of them from within, some of them just inherent to
- 6:09the business cycle, which is why it's called a cycle.
- 6:13It never really lands. I think what we mean by
- 6:16soft landing is inflation, something we no longer have to
- 6:19worry about, and the evidence is increasingly pointing in that direction.
- 6:24Speaker 2: When we look at the economic data. The other piece
- 6:27that I think we always have to remember on this
- 6:29is that, in addition to the economy always being in flux,
- 6:34it's not like any of this is actually like the
- 6:39data and what I mean by that is these are
- 6:41all surveys and estimates, and so taking any one data
- 6:45point at face value as oh, this is what it is,
- 6:49and this is what it isn't it doesn't really do
- 6:53you any favors. There are two things that I think
- 6:56that you need to do in order to try to
- 6:58make sense of what's going on. The first is to
- 7:01look at trends, and you know, generally not just like
- 7:04trend from like one month to the next, Like two
- 7:06data points is not enough for a trend. You want
- 7:08to be looking at kind of like three four data points,
- 7:10like hey, is there something that's continued for a couple
- 7:13months here in the data. And beyond that, you want
- 7:15to be looking at different sets of data because any
- 7:18one of them can be skewed just by how things
- 7:20are collected. As an example, if you just did a
- 7:24survey of real estate professionals inside the one twenty eight
- 7:29loop in Boston, they'd be telling you, oh, there's no inventory.
- 7:33Speaker 4: It's still crazy, like people are still.
- 7:35Speaker 2: You know, spending whatever they can, blah blah blah. If
- 7:38you just surveyed real estate professionals in the Austin, Texas
- 7:43area where you currently have inventories that are above you know,
- 7:46twenty nineteen levels, they'd be telling you, yeah, like there's
- 7:49just too much inventory. The market's really slow, people are
- 7:52having to cut prices. And then if you ask, well,
- 7:55which one's right, the correct answer is well, both of them,
- 7:58because they're measuring different things in different ways in different places.
- 8:03So to look at, you know, any one measure of
- 8:06the labor market from you know, in one month doesn't
- 8:10necessarily tell you what's actually going on with the labor market.
- 8:14You want to look at trends in multiple data series,
- 8:16because none of these are the right number. And so
- 8:20the way to try to get more accuracy is find,
- 8:23you know, a few data sets that you know, have
- 8:25decent methodology and decent ways of you know, tabulating the data,
- 8:30and then look at them over time to see how
- 8:33they evolve and how they change together. And that's how
- 8:36you can kind of build a picture of what's going on,
- 8:38because ultimately, like we don't actually know how many people
- 8:43have jobs in the United States. We don't actually know
- 8:47how many you know, purchasing managers increase their orders last month.
- 8:51We don't actually know how many homes were sold. You know,
- 8:56this core like these are estimates, like we we get
- 8:59as close as we can, but they're estimates, and so
- 9:03you have to kind of, you know, take a step
- 9:04back and say, Okay, what do we think we're seeing
- 9:07here and what does it mean? And also, hey, when
- 9:10companies are given their earnings reports and their conference calls,
- 9:13listen to what they're saying because they have stories that
- 9:15they're telling as well, and you need to be able
- 9:18to distinguish between hey, what's fact you know that they're
- 9:20telling us and what is a story that they're trying
- 9:23to spin for their investors to you know, make things
- 9:26look as rosy as possible. So it's it's all you know,
- 9:30you're you're kind of like a bat, right mark.
- 9:33Speaker 4: You got this like echo location.
- 9:36Speaker 2: That you're trying to send out to figure out where
- 9:38the walls of the cave are that you're flying out of,
- 9:40and you're pretty sure you know where they are, but
- 9:43things bounce a little differently and you just kind of
- 9:45have to piece the picture together the best you can.
- 9:47Speaker 3: I can't really relate to that, but my impression is
- 9:50that bats are they reckon pretty well, Like they can
- 9:54hit a mosquito from you know, thirty feet away if
- 9:56we only had that kind of precision. But as you say,
- 9:59the the data that we use, they are called statistics
- 10:02for a reason. We don't know the true value. They
- 10:05come with youge errors, and oftentimes we use them for
- 10:08things they weren't meant to be used for.
- 10:10Speaker 4: Let's take a little break here. When we come back.
- 10:12Speaker 2: We did get some additional economic data this morning that
- 10:14Jolts report the job openings in labor Turnover Survey. We'll
- 10:18talk to you about what that showed this morning right
- 10:21after this.
- 10:22Speaker 1: Breaking business news as it happens only here on the
- 10:26Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube.
- 10:32Like our page and stay up to date on breaking
- 10:35business news all morning long. This is the Financial Exchange
- 10:38Radio Network.
- 10:41Speaker 5: This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to you
- 10:44in part by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism.
- 10:47Speaker 4: The US Virgin.
- 10:47Speaker 5: Islands are Saint Croix, Saint Thomas, and Saint John. Summer
- 10:51is just about over, so now's the time to start
- 10:53looking at a fabulous holiday vacation and there's no place
- 10:57better than the US Virgin Islands. Enjoy perfect way, other
- 11:00world class dining, incredible beaches and a vibrant nightlife. No
- 11:03passport is needed, there's no money to exchange. Take your
- 11:06next vacation in America's Caribbean paradise the United States Virgin Islands.
- 11:11Go to visit USVII dot com to book your trip.
- 11:14That's visit USVII dot com.
- 11:16Speaker 2: Mark This morning, we got data from the Job Openings
- 11:20and Labor Turnover Survey Report, also known as the Jolts Report,
- 11:26and just taking a look through it as as it's
- 11:29come out.
- 11:30Speaker 4: Some takeaways.
- 11:31Speaker 2: First, the number of job openings declined to seven point
- 11:35seven million. Previously was reported to eight point one that
- 11:37was revised down to seven point nine million for the
- 11:40prior month. That number that we came in at was
- 11:43below all numbers surveyed by Bloomberg, So a big miss
- 11:47to the downside in terms of the number of job openings. There,
- 11:51the hire's rate ticked up a little bit, the quits
- 11:53rate ticked up a little bit, the layoffs rate ticked
- 11:55up a little bit, So all, you know, kind of
- 11:57showing a little bit of modestly higher activity, but nothing
- 12:00meaningful there. And so again when we look at this
- 12:04in the context of, hey, this is a survey survey,
- 12:07response rates aren't great, but let's see if we can,
- 12:10you know, kind of figure out what's going on here.
- 12:13The trend over the last you know, six to twelve
- 12:15months is unmistakable now of a job market that has
- 12:19cooled significantly and in some respects is probably closer to
- 12:24like the twenty seventeen twenty eighteen job market in terms
- 12:28of where we stand today, rather than the very hot
- 12:31job market that we saw from twenty twenty one through
- 12:34twenty twenty three.
- 12:36Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 12:36Speaker 3: I think that's the unavoidable conclusion from this and other
- 12:39bits of information from reports public and private sector reports
- 12:43that we've been getting over the past couple of months.
- 12:47One question for me is, was the labor market so abnormally,
- 12:50so unnaturally if you like, hot, that even today, notwithstanding
- 12:56the recent easing of the extreme pressure that was prevailing
- 13:01over the past say, couple of years through roughly six
- 13:05months ago, is the labor market still hot enough to
- 13:08keep upward pressure on inflation, or at least keep inflation
- 13:13from falling to the Fed's target of two percent. I know,
- 13:16in the last segment I said, increasingly people are seemingly
- 13:20not worried about inflation. It's receding into the background as
- 13:23a concern, as it should be. But we're not a
- 13:27two percent in point of fact, even if unless you
- 13:29annualize very recent reads, which could be distorted by special factors.
- 13:35Just taking year over year, which isn't the best measure,
- 13:37it's so backward looking, but we're not quite a two
- 13:39percent yet. Is the labor market slowed enough to get
- 13:41us to two percent while not dragging us into recession?
- 13:45This is the balance the Fed is trying to strike,
- 13:48and we won't know that they've done that successfully for
- 13:51some time probably well.
- 13:53Speaker 4: And look, we've talked about this before.
- 13:55Speaker 2: The two percent target is kind of a dumb target
- 13:59for a number of reason, since one of which is
- 14:01that inflation is never averaged two percent. You know, you
- 14:05will get decades as a whole, and you can't find
- 14:09one in the post war period where inflation averaged two percent.
- 14:13The closest we got, I think was two point four
- 14:15maybe it was two point six percent in the two
- 14:19thousands or twenty tens, uh, but we've never actually gotten there.
- 14:24We're basically kind of at the post war average, especially
- 14:27if you exclude like the seventies, which you know got
- 14:30very hot. Most decades aside from the seventies, inflation was
- 14:33anywhere between two and a half and three percent on average,
- 14:36and that was kind of the norm what we are
- 14:39seeing here, And Mark, I know that you like to
- 14:42take a look at this occasionally what's known as the
- 14:44beverage curve or the beverage curve. Basically, you take the
- 14:48job openings rate and the unemployment rate and you plot
- 14:51those on a chart. And what we are unmistakably seeing
- 14:55right now is as the job openings rate has been
- 14:58coming down, you we are seeing the unemployment rates starting
- 15:02to move up, just as it has in other business
- 15:06cycles where we have this data for Again, we don't
- 15:09have the data going back too far, unfortunately, because the
- 15:11JILT report only started in two thousands, so we've got
- 15:15about twenty four almost twenty five years of data now.
- 15:18But this does match what we saw in other business cycles,
- 15:23where hey, as that job opening rate comes down, unemployment
- 15:26has gone up. And that is something that I think
- 15:29that we would likely point to as likely muting the
- 15:32possibility of inflation being a problem at this point in
- 15:37the business cycle.
- 15:38Speaker 4: Here.
- 15:38Speaker 3: I guess I'm not sure the inflation that we experienced,
- 15:42the extreme inflation we experienced, say two years ago when
- 15:44it was peaking, was a result of labor market pressure.
- 15:47It wasn't wages. It was we now know, special factors
- 15:50or supply shocks coupled with an excess of demand driven
- 15:54by stimulus. So I don't know that the labor market
- 15:57was ever the immediate cause or the problem, although the
- 16:01traditional relationship is, as economists like to think about it,
- 16:05between unemployment and inflation, or some proxy for unemployment, some
- 16:09proxy for output. It could be. It could be the
- 16:13Jolts number we're talking about this morning. It could be vacancies.
- 16:16It could be the extent to which GDP exceeds potential GDP,
- 16:19which researchers try to ballpark. So it's we are back
- 16:24to worrying. The FED is back to warring, and so
- 16:26should we be about whether the risks have shifted from
- 16:30warrying about unemployment to worrying about inflation excuse me, to unemployment.
- 16:35It seems weird that they're talking about cutting. I know
- 16:38I'm backing up here and veering a little bit off
- 16:40the immediate topic, but I'm trying to get to a point.
- 16:43I guess Fed's back fed. FED is now more concerned
- 16:46about the risks of a slowing economy than the risks
- 16:49of increasing or upward pressure on prices. And that's just
- 16:54kind of where this feels a lot more. This, this framework,
- 16:57this construct, the way we're thinking about this feels a
- 16:59lot more traditional to me. Frankly, it's a relief because
- 17:02nobody knew what the heck was going on two years ago,
- 17:05how long high inflation was going to persist, how much
- 17:08pain would be required to squash it. We seem to
- 17:13have lucked out in many ways. I don't necessarily attribute
- 17:16it to FED skill.
- 17:18Speaker 2: And the real question is is not does the FED
- 17:22cut fifty basis points in September or twenty five because
- 17:25one meeting ultimately is not what matters here.
- 17:28Speaker 4: What's going to matter is over.
- 17:30Speaker 2: The next six to twelve months, what is the path
- 17:34that the FED needs to follow as far as the
- 17:39number of rate cuts necessary and the eventual depth that
- 17:44they get to, as far as how much they need
- 17:46to cut. So if you're sitting here today and you say, okay,
- 17:49FED funds is between five and a quarter and five
- 17:51and a half, it's hey, when we're twelve months out
- 17:55from here, are we getting down to three and a
- 17:58half on the FED funds?
- 17:59Speaker 4: Rate. Are we getting down to four and a half?
- 18:01Are we getting down to two and a half? Like that?
- 18:03Speaker 2: That's the number that really that matters. And to a
- 18:07certain extent, also, Okay, is it gonna be something where
- 18:11the FED does that cutting, you know, in a four
- 18:15or five meeting period where they're basically done by March
- 18:19or May of next year, and Fed funds is you know,
- 18:22at three and a half or two and a half
- 18:24at that point, or is it something where hey, the
- 18:26economy you know, finds its footing a little bit and
- 18:29maybe the FED just does a quarter percent per meeting
- 18:31for the next you know, eight or nine meetings and
- 18:34finds itself in that three and a half percent range
- 18:37by the end of twenty twenty five. These are the
- 18:39questions that matter not so much, Hey are they gonna
- 18:42cut twenty five basis points or fifty at the next
- 18:44meeting unless you're actually taking an active bet on that,
- 18:48you know, through any of the millions of ways that
- 18:51you can do that in securities markets these days. But
- 18:55I think the more interesting question to me is, Hey,
- 18:58what's the path over the next six to twelve month
- 19:00how low do rates have to get? And that's going
- 19:02to be determined by how good or bad the economy is,
- 19:05which we still don't quite know, if we're being honest. Here,
- 19:10let's take a quick break as we head towards the
- 19:14bottom of the hour. When we come back, we got
- 19:17a couple things to do. First, we got Wall Street
- 19:19Watch coming up, and then after that we're going to
- 19:23be joined by the one and only Todd Lutsky, who
- 19:26is going to join us for this week's segment of
- 19:30Ask Todd All that is coming up right after this.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
- 19:44TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
- 19:49on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
- 19:54Street Watch. A complete look at what's moving market so
- 19:57far today right here on the Financially Exchange Radio Network.
- 20:02Speaker 5: After yesterday's sell off where the Nasdaq sank over three
- 20:06percent and the SMP five hundred was down over two percent,
- 20:10markets today are edging higher in positive territory. Right now,
- 20:14the Dow is up by a quarter percent, or ninety
- 20:16seven points, SMP five hundred is up by eight points,
- 20:20Nasdak also up by eight points. Whilster two thousand is
- 20:24flat ten. Your Treasure reeled down by five basis points
- 20:27at three points seven to eight percent, and crude oiled
- 20:30down one percent, trading just below seventy dollars a barrel
- 20:35after it's near ten percent plunge yesterday. And video shares
- 20:39are down one percent today after Bloomberg reported the chip
- 20:42maker had been subpoenaed by the Justice Department as it
- 20:45seeks evidence on antitrust violations. Meanwhile, in an interview with
- 20:50The Wall Street Journal, US Steel CEO David Burrett so
- 20:53the company would close steel mills and likely move its
- 20:57headquarters out of Pittsburgh if it's planned four fourteen billion
- 21:00dollars sale to Japan's Nippon Steel collapses. US Steel shares
- 21:04are up by three percent. Elsewhere, shares in Dick Sporting
- 21:07Goods down by seven percent after the retailer beats second
- 21:11quarter earnings expectations, where it's comparable sales climbed four and
- 21:14a half percent above forecasts of three point six percent.
- 21:18While Dix raised its full yure outlook, the forecast appeared
- 21:22muted compared with expectations. Sticking with the retail space, where
- 21:26Dollartree shares tumbling nineteen percent after the discount retailer missed
- 21:30second quarter earnings expectations and also cut its outlook in
- 21:35Hormale Foods, the parent company to food brands including Spam,
- 21:38underwhelmed on its quarterly results. The company also lowered its forecast,
- 21:43sending that stock down by eight percent so far. Today,
- 21:47I'm Tucker Silva and that's Wall Street Watch.
- 21:50Speaker 1: This is asked Odd on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 21:54If you have an existing estate plan or in the
- 21:56market for one, Tod Letskey is here to answer your
- 21:59questions and help you plan for a later life. Ask
- 22:02Todd is presented by Cushing and Dolan, serving Massachusetts and
- 22:05New England for more than thirty five years, helping families
- 22:08with a state and tax planning, Medicaid planning, and probate law.
- 22:12Visit Cushingdolan dot com. Now here's Todd.
- 22:15Speaker 4: Lutsky as promise.
- 22:18Speaker 2: We're joined now by Todd Lutsky from the law firm
- 22:21of Cushing and Dolan segment. Here is Ask Todd, and
- 22:25the premise is very simple. You get to ask Todd
- 22:29your estate planning questions live on air. We've got the
- 22:33studio lines open at eight eight, eight to zero, five
- 22:36two two six three. Last week I know we left
- 22:38Oney a hang in, so make sure that you call
- 22:40in early to make sure that you get in line
- 22:42to ask Todd your estate planning questions.
- 22:45Speaker 4: Again. That number is eight eight eight.
- 22:47Speaker 2: To zero five two two sixty three phone lines are open,
- 22:52So get all cued up there and we'll get to
- 22:54you as they come in again eight eight eight to
- 22:57zero five two two six three to be able to
- 22:59ask Todd Lutsky your estate planning questions.
- 23:02Speaker 4: Mister Lutsky, how are you today?
- 23:04Speaker 6: I am doing well in yourself.
- 23:07Speaker 4: A little tough, A little tough this week. What happened?
- 23:10Speaker 2: Well, open my uh paycheck on last Friday and all
- 23:14there wasn't There was a big thing of parsley.
- 23:16Speaker 4: Yeah, wagers are being garnished.
- 23:18Speaker 6: Yeah, you got to watch that.
- 23:20Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a real issue, Todd. I want to talk
- 23:22to you about some different kinds of trust today, just
- 23:25just to kind of clear my head on the whole topic.
- 23:28I want to start first with nominy realty trusts.
- 23:33Speaker 4: What are they? What do they actually do?
- 23:35Speaker 6: So this is one of the unfortunately most commonly used
- 23:41trust because lots of times, you know, real estate lawyers
- 23:44will will set them up for people just because they
- 23:47bought a piece of property. And they'll throw them in there,
- 23:49and and they're used just so frequently, but they're so misunderstood.
- 23:54What I mean by that is there, I know it
- 23:56sounds strange, but they're not really a trust at all.
- 23:59I mean, it's got the word trust in it, which
- 24:01just adds to the confusion. But a nominee realty trust,
- 24:06the word nominee means that it's more of a principal
- 24:09agency employer employee relationships. So what I mean by that is,
- 24:16and when you put assets in these trusts, these nominee
- 24:19realty trusts, you got to look to the schedule of
- 24:22beneficiaries because it's a complete flow through. So the schedule
- 24:27of beneficiaries is actually the owners and here's the power
- 24:33they have. There'll be language in the trust itself that
- 24:36says the trustee of the trust shall have no power
- 24:42to deal with the trust property unless directed by the beneficiaries. Well,
- 24:49that means that the beneficiaries really control this and they
- 24:52are really the owners of the property. So why this
- 24:55is so problematic? You say, well, that doesn't sound so
- 24:58much of a problem. Well, it generally is because people
- 25:03put this property, let's say they put their piece of
- 25:05property in the trust and then they list the schedule
- 25:09of beneficiaries as their kids, and they didn't mean to
- 25:12give their kids the property, but they did just that
- 25:16because they're the ones listed as the schedule beneficiaries, so
- 25:19they're really the current owners. And why that's a problem
- 25:22is what happens if one of the kids get a divorce, Well,
- 25:27mom and dad are living, they might not even realize
- 25:31they own it until the divorce comes, and I can
- 25:34assure you the divorcing parties will discover that this property
- 25:40is really theirs and now part of the marriage. And
- 25:43you could have parents, you know, having to buy out
- 25:47their own home not realizing they gave it away, And
- 25:51that to me is a big issue.
- 25:53Speaker 4: So lots of.
- 25:54Speaker 6: Other problems can come with it. But that's just a trust.
- 25:57Look at your schedule of beneficiaries and determine whether or
- 26:00not you've got the right people listed, and maybe how
- 26:02to undo it. And they are fixable, by the way,
- 26:07So at the end of the day, folks, that is
- 26:09something that you should consider. Now, let's let's look at
- 26:12one other thing in this case. If what if you
- 26:17put rental property in one of these nominee realty trusts.
- 26:21If you put rental property into the Nominee Realty Trust
- 26:25and the rent is going to you, Mom and dad.
- 26:29You put the rent property and you're getting the rent. Well,
- 26:32then you're not entitled to the rent because you don't
- 26:36own the property, and the IRS doesn't tend to like
- 26:40that too much. The IRS says, well, wait a minute,
- 26:43the rent might be tax at a higher rate if
- 26:46it went to the kids, and they're the ones really
- 26:49entitled to that rent. So at the end of the day,
- 26:53that could be an income tax problem on top of that.
- 26:57So lots to think about what these non many realty trusts.
- 27:03Speaker 2: Talking with Todd Lutsky from the law firm of Kushinggan Dolan.
- 27:06If you've got a question that you'd like to ask
- 27:08Todd about your estate plan, studio line here is eight
- 27:12eight eight to zero five two two six three. Again
- 27:16that is eight eight eight to zero five two two
- 27:20six three to get your question right over to mister
- 27:23Todd Lutsky there. We're going to take a quick break here,
- 27:27but when we come back it is going to be
- 27:29right to your questions with Todd. Again, we got room
- 27:31on the phone lines for you at eight eight eight
- 27:34to zero five two two six three quick break, then
- 27:38your questions when we return.
- 27:41Speaker 1: Ask Todd with Todd Lutsky every Wednesday at ten thirty
- 27:45only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. You're listening
- 27:51to Ask Todd with Todd Lutsky on the Financial Exchange
- 27:54Radio Network.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Still got a little bit more room on the phone
- 28:04lines at eight eight eight two zero five two two
- 28:06six three if you've got a question for Todd, But
- 28:09let's go first to Kenny and Twksbury.
- 28:11Speaker 4: Kenny, what's your question for Todd Lutsky.
- 28:14Speaker 7: Yes, I've got a piece of property. It's coming out
- 28:17of an irrevocable trust. It was May twenty years ago.
- 28:20Speaker 4: Huh.
- 28:20Speaker 7: There's five siblings and one sibling would like to buy out.
- 28:24The rest is their capital game.
- 28:28Speaker 6: Okay, So that's a it's a question that I can
- 28:31give you an answer to. But understand, not having read
- 28:34the trust, it's it's complicated for me to know. But
- 28:37here's what you need to look for. I'm assuming that
- 28:42your parents maybe put the property in the trust.
- 28:45Speaker 4: Is that correct?
- 28:47Speaker 7: Yes?
- 28:47Speaker 6: And when did they die?
- 28:50Speaker 7: Uh, there's one my mother is still living, James. I'm
- 28:56talking about in the future, I mean, oh, very old.
- 29:00Speaker 6: Okay, So so they it hasn't come out yet, and
- 29:04it's not coming out till she dies, correct, Yes, okay,
- 29:08so upon her death you'll have to determine whether or
- 29:12not the assets in that trust are included in her
- 29:17estate for state tax purposes. What I mean by that
- 29:20is irrevocable trusts are not always completed gifts. So when
- 29:25I take when we prepare an irrevocable trust at Cushing
- 29:29and Dolan for medicaid nursing home purposes, assuming that's what
- 29:32this was prepared for. Was it designed to protect the
- 29:35house from the nursing home.
- 29:37Speaker 7: Yes, with a living estate.
- 29:39Speaker 6: Oh so you're saying she kept a life estate in
- 29:43the deed, the right to live there. Yes, okay, so
- 29:46they put the remainder interest into the trust and retained
- 29:50a life interest. Yes, okay, that's entirely different. So now
- 29:55I don't need to read the trust. I don't need
- 29:57to know what the trust says, because when you retain
- 30:02the right to live in a property, the government says, yes,
- 30:05you gave away the remainder interest, but you retained the
- 30:10right to enjoy what it is that you gave away,
- 30:14and therefore the government says you didn't cut the string.
- 30:17You didn't make a completed gift, and the asset is
- 30:21going to be included or pulled back into the estate
- 30:24for state tax purposes, not for probate purposes, but for
- 30:30gross estate tax purposes, So the full value of that
- 30:33property will be included. I don't know if she's if
- 30:35that's going to push her over the two million dollar
- 30:37Massachusetts limit or not, but if it does, then there'll
- 30:41be a massive state tax. But the good news for
- 30:43you is there will be no probate or there will
- 30:47be a full step up in basis. So when the
- 30:50property comes out, if it's worth a million, it'll be
- 30:53as if the kids paid a million. They can sell
- 30:56it the next day for a million in their gain
- 30:58would be zero zero, So there'll be no capital gains
- 31:02tax when this property is sold. If it's sold shortly
- 31:05after the death of the decedent, I say shortly, you know,
- 31:09within six months, nine months, something like that. So hopefully
- 31:12that's helpful, and that's good news, folks. It's very important
- 31:14to understand these trusts. That's exactly what the new guide
- 31:17is all about this month, demystifying the seven top estate
- 31:23planning trust that I run into. And these trusts are
- 31:26all different. They all have different issues when it comes
- 31:29to taxation, whether it's a gift tax and income tax,
- 31:32a step up in basis issue like this, whether they're
- 31:36designed to protect assets from the nursing home or special
- 31:39needs children.
- 31:40Speaker 4: So this folks learn.
- 31:42Speaker 6: About how these trusts work, from taxation to operations to
- 31:48control while you're living. We're talking about irrevocable life insurance trusts,
- 31:52revocable trusts, irrevocable medicaid trusts, you name it. The top
- 31:58seven estate plan trusts are in this guide and they
- 32:02will help you better design your own estate plan and
- 32:06determine which ones are right for you. So please get
- 32:09the guide brand new for the month eight six six
- 32:12eight four eight five six nine nine or Legal Exchange
- 32:16Show dot com again eight six six eight four eight
- 32:20five six nine nine or Legal Exchange Show dot com.
- 32:25Speaker 2: Todd, I've got another caller for you here. Let's go
- 32:28to Hillary in Maryland. Hillary, what's your question for Tom Lutsky.
- 32:34Speaker 8: Yes, I have a living revocable trust and I was
- 32:38just going to put my property in that, but I
- 32:43also was thinking of putting it in a I guess
- 32:46it's a nominee land trust, but it would the land
- 32:48trust just for privacy purposes, and then have that trust,
- 32:53my living trust be the beneficiary of that, and then
- 32:59just you know, and then upon my death, you know
- 33:02my beneficiaries. I suppose with you know, I don't know
- 33:05if it's hard to unravel once you know, if you
- 33:07have a trust and a trust. But I was wondering
- 33:11if that's maybe what you're talking about when you're talking
- 33:13about this nominee land trust being a problem.
- 33:15Speaker 6: Well, I can tell you in Maryland. It's probably hard
- 33:19for me to speak too, because I'm not licensed in Maryland,
- 33:22but I can tell you if it's a nominee realty trust. Yeah,
- 33:26it's that flow through vehicle. And that's the way you
- 33:28could do it. You could use a nominee realty trust,
- 33:30make the beneficiary is a family revocable trust that you're
- 33:35speaking of, and that'd be okay because then it would
- 33:37be in the revocable trust. But you know, I don't
- 33:41think you need it. I don't think you need that
- 33:43intermediate step, is my point.
- 33:46Speaker 4: Right.
- 33:46Speaker 6: You can simply just need the property directly into the
- 33:50revocable trust. Now in Massachusetts we do this. We need
- 33:53it directly into the revocable trust and we do not
- 33:56put the revocable trust on record. That's got all your wishes,
- 34:00your you know, family wishes, where things are going to
- 34:03go when you die, and how they get there, and
- 34:05when they get there and why they get there.
- 34:07Speaker 4: That doesn't go on record.
- 34:09Speaker 6: A simple trustee certificate goes on record indicating that this trust,
- 34:14this revocable trust exists, so that you don't have to,
- 34:19you know, reveal any of that other information. So I
- 34:23would say, my only question to you would be the
- 34:25revocable trust would be enough, not the nominee realty trust.
- 34:29Speaker 4: But but how how old are you?
- 34:33Speaker 3: Fifties?
- 34:34Speaker 6: I'm sorry you beeped out.
- 34:35Speaker 4: How old?
- 34:36Speaker 8: Late fifties?
- 34:37Speaker 6: Yeah, so so you know, I don't know if you're
- 34:40starting to think about protecting assets from the cost of
- 34:43long term care. If you are, then you know, I
- 34:47bring it up when I meet clients, you know, sixty, sixty,
- 34:51sixty and over, sixty five and over. So you know,
- 34:54if you're like fifty eight or fifty nine and you're
- 34:56approaching sixty that quickly you might say, well, why would
- 34:59I want to set up something now that I might
- 35:02just have to, you know, redo in three years, five
- 35:06years if I want to protect them from a nursing home.
- 35:09And so if that's a concern of yours at all,
- 35:12then think about an irrevocable trust. And if it's not,
- 35:17then even with the revocable trust, I'm gonna mention, don't
- 35:21just stop with putting your house in. So with the
- 35:23revocable trust, I'd put in your bank accounts, your investment portfolio,
- 35:29you know, retitle it to the trust so it too
- 35:32will avoid probate and get to your family in exactly
- 35:36the manner that you want all those assets to go. Caution, though,
- 35:39one thing you don't put in a revocable trust or
- 35:43a medicaid irrevocable trust would be the IRA type assets
- 35:48of the world, your retirement accounts. That would be the problem.
- 35:51So don't put those in because those would then create
- 35:56a taxable event on the moment you transfer to the trust.
- 35:59So just some things to think about, folks, different kinds
- 36:03of trusts for different objectives that you want to accomplish
- 36:06in your estate plan.
- 36:09Speaker 4: Mister Watski, thank you so much for joining us today.
- 36:11Always a pleasure.
- 36:12Speaker 6: Thank you.
- 36:13Speaker 1: This has been asked Odd on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
- 36:17Ask Todd with Todd Lutsky has been presented by Cushing
- 36:20and Dolan, serving Massachusetts and New England for more than
- 36:22thirty years, helping families with the state and tax planning,
- 36:25Medicaid planning, and probate law. Call eight hundred three nine
- 36:28three four thousand and one or visit Cushingdolan dot com.
- 36:32The views expressed in this segment are solely those of
- 36:34Cushing and Dolan. Armstrong Advisory does not provide any legal
- 36:36or tax advice. Please consult with your legal or tax
- 36:38advisor on such matters. Cushing and Armstrong do not endorse
- 36:41each other and are not affiliated. Cushing and Dolan are
- 36:43experts in elder life planning and taxation. They know that
- 36:46every family is unique and that every estate plan must
- 36:49be different. Early planning is crucial if you want to
- 36:51stress free your retirement and trusts are oftentimes the document
- 36:55of choice to help protect your assets, but with so
- 36:57many kinds of trusts, you need to learn about which
- 37:00which one is right for your plan. Revocable and irrevocable
- 37:03trusts are most common, but there are several differences as
- 37:06well as numerous tax implications with each. If you are
- 37:08ready to start your planning or need to a fresh
- 37:10and existing plan. Call Cushing and Dolan and ask for
- 37:13their new guide called Dmistifying the Top seven Estate Planning Trusts.
- 37:17Learn how to protect your assets and potentially eliminate your
- 37:20estate taxes. Call eight sixty six eight four eight five
- 37:23six ninety nine right now and ask for your guide today.
- 37:26That's eight sixty six eight four eight five six ninety nine,
- 37:29or request it online at Legal exchange show dot com.
- 37:32The proceeding was State four and the views expressed are
- 37:34sole le those of Cushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan
- 37:36and or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offering legal or
- 37:38investment services. Cushing and Dolan and Armstrong Advisory do not
- 37:41endorse each other and are not affiliated