Latest / Best of Business / Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Nathan Guy being appointed as New Zealand’s special agricultural trade envoy

Transcript

Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Nathan Guy being appointed as New Zealand’s special agricultural trade envoy · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk ZEDB. Follow
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• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Jamie mckaye is with us from the Country.
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  Speaker 1: Jamie.
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  Speaker 2: Good evening. Gooday, Ryan, Now we've got the Fonterra. You know,
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  Speaker 2: the downgrading, lowering the forecast farmgate milk price for the
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  Speaker 2: second time this season.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Like, well, to take you back a wee
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  Speaker 3: bit in time, they started the season off with the
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  Speaker 3: forecast range of eight to eleven dollars. Strangely, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: logic would suggest the midpoints nine to fifty, but they
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  Speaker 3: went with a ten dollars midpoint. They've had to subsequently
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  Speaker 3: reduce that to nine fifty, and today they've changed that
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  Speaker 3: midpoint from nine to fifty to nine dollars, so that
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  Speaker 3: range is now eight point fifty to nine fifty. There's
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  Speaker 3: quite a bit of talk in the industry about maybe
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  Speaker 3: the milk price starting with an eight, which wouldn't be
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  Speaker 3: so flash, but it's not a surprise. This follows yesterday's
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  Speaker 3: and we talked about this one on Cheernesday Evening. Ryan
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  Speaker 3: follows yesterday's four point four percent drop on the GDT
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  Speaker 3: auction down a whole milk powder down five point seven percent,
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  Speaker 3: the ninth drop in a row since mid August. The
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  Speaker 3: record is ten. It looks like we could well beat
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  Speaker 3: that when the first auction comes back. In early January.
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  Speaker 3: Chief executive Miles Hurrell said, strong milk flows in both
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand and globally, particularly out of the United States
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  Speaker 3: and Europe, continues to put downward pressure on global commodity prices.
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  Speaker 3: And the other factor that's slightly coming into play is
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  Speaker 3: the stronger New Zealand dollar. It's now training at fifty
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  Speaker 3: eight or US fifty eight cents. It was at fifty
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  Speaker 3: six or fifty seven. But I'm imagining the hedging department
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  Speaker 3: at Fonterra Ryan has probably got a lock a lot
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  Speaker 3: of their currency locked in for this season, so that
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  Speaker 3: may even be a next season story. So Bucklin, I
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  Speaker 3: don't think we're over the drops yet. But the good
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  Speaker 3: news is because it is Christmas, and I don't want
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  Speaker 3: to be the good news Ryan, is as we look
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  Speaker 3: out further, we are expecting this thing to come back
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  Speaker 3: and still very good future for protein.
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  Speaker 2: And you know everyone talks about the break even price, Jamie,
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  Speaker 2: eight dollars fifty is that I think the average four
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  Speaker 2: farmers for dairy farmers. That sounds like it's getting quite close.
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  Speaker 2: Is you know that must be worrying or is there
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  Speaker 2: more to that?
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  Speaker 3: No, I think it's worrying. It's interesting the that's the
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  Speaker 3: from the E contractor tracker at Dairy and Z eight fifty.
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  Speaker 3: I know a lot of dairy farmers, and I know
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  Speaker 3: a lot of them who are whose cost of production
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  Speaker 3: is considerably below eight dollars fifty. Maybe it's a few
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  Speaker 3: of the big players with high debt that is dragging
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  Speaker 3: that average up. But you're dead right, Like at a
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  Speaker 3: cost of eight fifty a ten dollars payout, it is
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  Speaker 3: a good business to be if that payout is beginning
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  Speaker 3: with an eight and the cost of production is eight fifty,
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  Speaker 3: not so flash. But there are things that are mitigating this.
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  Speaker 3: Lower interest rates are really going to help farmers in
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  Speaker 3: the coming season or the rest of this season. That
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  Speaker 3: has of course been factored into the eight point fifty.
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  Speaker 3: But yeah, watch this space a bit of the shine
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  Speaker 3: coming off dairy prices.
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  Speaker 2: I see Nathan Guyn has got a new role for himself.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, he has. The former Minister of Primary Industries under
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  Speaker 3: the well he was under the key and I think
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  Speaker 3: the English government. I'll have to check my do my
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  Speaker 3: homework on that one. Yeah, he is named as the
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  Speaker 3: new Special Agricultural Trade Envoy. We've had some good ones
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  Speaker 3: of these over the years. Mike Petterson for instance, comes
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  Speaker 3: to mind. Nathan guy replaces Hamish Maher, a mid Canterbury
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  Speaker 3: arable farmer who's held the role since twenty twenty three.
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  Speaker 3: Nathan will take over on the first of January, which
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  Speaker 3: is only a couple of weeks ago. Look, he's going
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  Speaker 3: to with his background not only in politics treading the
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  Speaker 3: corridors of power, but also in farming. He's a practicing farmer.
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  Speaker 3: He's a horror for New a dairy farmer. He's an
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  Speaker 3: agg gred business leader. He's the chairman of the Meat
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  Speaker 3: Industry Association at the moment, he's also the independent chair
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  Speaker 3: for Appiculture New Zealand. He's got a finger and a
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  Speaker 3: lot of pies. He's very well connected and he will
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  Speaker 3: do a very good job. Now Minister Maclay has said
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  Speaker 3: he wants Nathan to concentrate with a particular focus on India.
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  Speaker 3: Obviously they're looking for the FTA there and the GCC markets.
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  Speaker 3: Now I don't know about you, Ryan, but I know
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  Speaker 3: what a GC is. I don't know what a GCC
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  Speaker 3: market is, but whatever it is, Nathan's concentrating on it.
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  Speaker 2: You're driving with the GC. Yes, no, quite right. Well,
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  Speaker 2: he's he's quite adept, he used to. I've been on
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  Speaker 2: a few trade missions with Nathan Guy in the years
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  Speaker 2: gone by, Like we went to Brazil, we went to Argentina,
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  Speaker 2: I remember going to Mexico. I mean, he knows his stuff.
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  Speaker 2: He'll be out there pushing the business, doing the good
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  Speaker 2: thing for New Zealand. So that's great. Jamie, appreciate it.
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  Speaker 2: Jamie McKay, host of the Country.
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