Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rose in April and Hiring Picked Up

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US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rose in April and Hiring Picked Up · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: I Paulus pointing out earlier that we got some of
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  Speaker 2: that economic data. Factory orders lower for April. You also
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  Speaker 2: had Jolt job openings coming in better than expected. The
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  Speaker 2: quits rate also slightly better, although we are seeing more
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  Speaker 2: people getting fired or laid off, So I want to
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  Speaker 2: take that into account. With Ira Jersey, Boomberg Intelligence Senior
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  Speaker 2: US interest rate strategist, you're seeing a little bit of
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  Speaker 2: selling on that front end. Hey Iira, what's your.
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  Speaker 3: Take on these numbers?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I disagree with that take. Actually, the way that
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  Speaker 5: I look at quits being down a little bit and
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  Speaker 5: then layoffs being up a little bit is actually weak
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  Speaker 5: for the economy because if you're if you're not thinking
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  Speaker 5: you can find another job, that's the reason you don't.
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  Speaker 5: You don't quit your job because you need to stay
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  Speaker 5: where you are. And then obviously with layoffs up, that's
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  Speaker 5: not particularly positive. Either, but it's it's all very incremental.
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  Speaker 5: This isn't These aren't huge moves, and certainly job openings
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  Speaker 5: being up a little bit in April, it's still.
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  Speaker 3: Not back to February levels.
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  Speaker 5: So again, like you know, we're talked about maybe you know,
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  Speaker 5: lower highs here in terms of the downtrend. But but
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  Speaker 5: some of the other data is also important to look at.
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  Speaker 5: So you think about factory orders, those missed to the downside,
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  Speaker 5: plus they were revised down as well the prior month.
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  Speaker 5: So so overall this is you know a little bit
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  Speaker 5: of a weak economy and you know the front end
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  Speaker 5: selling off. So two year yields being a little bit
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  Speaker 5: higher here is a little bit surprising because yes, the
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  Speaker 5: data isn't terrible, but it's also not particularly good.
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  Speaker 3: Kind of no matter how you slice it, IRA, it
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  Speaker 3: seems like this fetter reserve is not really getting any
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  Speaker 3: clear signals what to do next, which I guess for
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  Speaker 3: a lot of folks means let's do nothing here. How
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  Speaker 3: do you think they're going to interpret today data?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, well, well I think that they're going to not
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  Speaker 5: be pleased with today's data, but at the same time
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  Speaker 5: they're waiting for the next shoot to drop on inflation, right,
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  Speaker 5: so next to so next week's inflation print is going
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  Speaker 5: to be is going to be important as well as
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  Speaker 5: this Friday's payrolls report. But you know that the likelihood
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  Speaker 5: that the Federal Reserve does anything at the June meeting
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  Speaker 5: is near zero because you're waiting to see what the
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  Speaker 5: fallout is of all the tariffs. Will that increase prices?
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  Speaker 5: Will how will that affect inflation and the inflation outlook.
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  Speaker 5: So all of those things probably mean that they sit
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  Speaker 5: on their hands. In fact, the minutes last week, according
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  Speaker 5: to our natural language processing model, suggested that they were
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  Speaker 5: as neutral as we want to be at the at.
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  Speaker 3: The last meeting.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, he does this thing and it's really cool.
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  Speaker 2: You put it in FED speak and then his model tells
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  Speaker 2: them whether they're on the bullish or the bearish side
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  Speaker 2: or I guess hawker dove side if we're putting it
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  Speaker 2: in FED terms. So walk me through what you're expecting
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  Speaker 2: then for Friday and how are positioned in the market,
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  Speaker 2: because honestly, it's it's been pretty calm the last two days.
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  Speaker 5: Well, so one of the one of the things that
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  Speaker 5: we've noted, and I was talking to to our derivative
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  Speaker 5: strategist Tander Sandu that just this morning, and he noted
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  Speaker 5: that for the for long end, right, So we've had
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  Speaker 5: this lot of angst with what's going on in the
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  Speaker 5: thirty year debt and even then your debt because of
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  Speaker 5: the fiscal situation and the fact that we're not really
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  Speaker 5: removing paying down deficits very much. That that people are
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  Speaker 5: long puts, right, So people have gotten out of the
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  Speaker 5: money puts on long bonds. So so therefore it might
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  Speaker 5: be more difficult for the long end to sell off
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  Speaker 5: just because people are appropriately hedged. But I do think
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  Speaker 5: that there's a lot of people who are, you know,
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  Speaker 5: kind of waiting and seeing what the economic outcome is
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  Speaker 5: going to be. But you know that being said, there
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  Speaker 5: are people who are think are nibbling at the edges,
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  Speaker 5: particularly when you get up to that five percent level
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  Speaker 5: in thirty year bonds because liability driven investors, so insurance companies,
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  Speaker 5: pension funds and a few others, they're really interested in
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  Speaker 5: treashjuries at five percent. So I think that's another reason
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  Speaker 5: why you keep on seeing a bit every time we
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  Speaker 5: kind of get above that five percent level on the
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  Speaker 5: long bond.
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  Speaker 3: Long ago Lisa Bronwitz taught me to look at the
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  Speaker 3: two tens spread there, and right now it's about fifty
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  Speaker 3: basis points of steepening. That feels kind of normal to me.
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  Speaker 3: Are kind of reasonable to me. How does it look
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  Speaker 3: to you?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, so, actually on a historical basis, is actually still
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  Speaker 5: kind of low. Normally, when you look at the twos
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  Speaker 5: tens curve, it's somewhere closer to one hundred basis points
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  Speaker 5: on average. We do think there's some structural reasons why.
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  Speaker 5: I'm not sure that we'll get up to where it
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  Speaker 5: has during other cycles, but I do think that steepening
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  Speaker 5: is still probably the trade. Whether it's bull steepening or
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  Speaker 5: bear steepening, We're more likely to see steepening than we
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  Speaker 5: are significant flattening. I think over the next six months,
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  Speaker 5: you know the fiscal situation and will likely keep the
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  Speaker 5: long end where it is, or maybe even actually have
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  Speaker 5: that cheapened, so we yields go a little bit higher.
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  Speaker 5: But as the economy slows, which is our base case scenario,
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  Speaker 5: over the course of this year, it will become more
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  Speaker 5: obvious that the FED is going to cut rates, and
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  Speaker 5: cut rates, maybe more aggressively than what's currently priced, and
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  Speaker 5: that will cause two year yields and the front end
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  Speaker 5: of the yield curve to rally and yields go lower,
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  Speaker 5: So that will steep in the yield curve. So we
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  Speaker 5: think that over the course of this year, one way
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  Speaker 5: or the other, whether it's buller Bear, we'll see more
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  Speaker 5: steepening of the guild.
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  Speaker 2: Curve, right, buller Bear, Like, do you get it on
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  Speaker 2: the front end and that's why the curve goes up?
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  Speaker 2: Or do you get it on the back end and
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  Speaker 2: that's selling in the long end, and do we get
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  Speaker 2: that higher?
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  Speaker 3: Ira?
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  Speaker 2: Thanks a lot, Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence TFUs interest rate strategist.
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  Speaker 2: Joining us there.
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  Speaker 3: Today, the OECD, which is international trade orization based in Paris,
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  Speaker 3: they slashed its government economic forecast due to Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 3: trade policies, citing the impact of tariffs and uncertainty on
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  Speaker 3: confidence and investments. Maybe we're starting to really see some
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  Speaker 3: impacts there globally, Zoe Shay Shaney WECE joins this here
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  Speaker 3: Western Europe Economy team leader. She's based in Frankfurt. Zoe,
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  Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us here. Specifically, what is
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  Speaker 3: the OECD calling out for the US and for the
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  Speaker 3: global economy?
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  Speaker 6: So overall, the OECD, as you just mentioned, just cut
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  Speaker 6: its forecasts across the board and look, for the world,
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  Speaker 6: they were predicting for this year three point one percent growth,
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  Speaker 6: now it's just two point nine. Similarly for the US
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  Speaker 6: more drastically, actually, for the US they're pre predicting two
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  Speaker 6: point two and now they's just say one point six.
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  Speaker 6: And they're also next year for the US just present
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  Speaker 6: predict one point five percent growth. So overall, these are
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  Speaker 6: quite dramatic numbers and throughout the whole report. The reason
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  Speaker 6: they give for this is Trump tariffs and that this overall,
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  Speaker 6: this combative trade policy that's coming from the US just
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  Speaker 6: just hurting the world all over but the US here
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  Speaker 6: in particular.
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  Speaker 2: But so I wonder what their baseline is for tariffs.
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  Speaker 2: Is it that ten percent? Are they taking into account
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  Speaker 2: the tariffs that are currently in place? Like what's the
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  Speaker 2: tariff scenario?
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  Speaker 6: The tariff scenario is just general uncertainty. So they are
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  Speaker 6: very aware that because of the constant change and of
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  Speaker 6: Trump policy that he says one tariff one day and
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  Speaker 6: then changes again the next and then goes back and
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  Speaker 6: forth all the time, that they're just this inherent uncertainty
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  Speaker 6: here that will just hurt trade overall. If you look
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  Speaker 6: at the charts that's say, what trade would do if
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  Speaker 6: you compared with what they thought in December. What they're
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  Speaker 6: saying now, the picture is just incredibly dramatic, and they
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  Speaker 6: say that as long as this is there, as long
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  Speaker 6: as this uncertainty and this constant what's it called there
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  Speaker 6: and back again kind of trade policy is going on,
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  Speaker 6: that this is something that will just hurt theonomy, almost
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  Speaker 6: irrespective of what the trade to a trade, what the
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  Speaker 6: tariffs are actually like, then just as uncertainty damages so much.
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  Speaker 3: Zoe. You're based in Frankfort, you know, based upon my
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  Speaker 3: travel through EUROPEBA was considered Frankfurt to obviously be the
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  Speaker 3: you know, the corporate hub of Germany and certainly much
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  Speaker 3: of Europe here. What are you hearing from the German
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  Speaker 3: executives that you speak to about what we're seeing over
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  Speaker 3: the last several months.
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  Speaker 6: So Germany is an interesting situation because we just had
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  Speaker 6: elections here in February and there then a coalition was
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  Speaker 6: formed quite quickly. And even before the coalition was formed,
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  Speaker 6: because the fringe parties on the left on the right
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  Speaker 6: one so much in parliament, they still in the lane duck,
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  Speaker 6: Parliament still passed an incredibly generous fiscal package and also
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  Speaker 6: this huge defense package. So the defence package, we know, it's
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  Speaker 6: tricky how this will trickle through for the economy, but
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  Speaker 6: the fiscal package is really massive, and so just generally
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  Speaker 6: gave he gave executives here in Germany a whole boost
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  Speaker 6: of confidence because Germany, as we know, red tape here
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  Speaker 6: is it takes everything, takes agent's red tape is very prevalent.
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  Speaker 6: And the lad during the entire shorts with the time
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  Speaker 6: that Schorts was chancellor, the economy barely grew. There was
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  Speaker 6: one quarter of contraction, one of growth. It just was
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  Speaker 6: really very very sad, and so the fact that the
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  Speaker 6: god that would be this huge fiscal package made everyone happy.
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  Speaker 6: This was February.
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  Speaker 3: Then we got the Liberation.
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  Speaker 6: Day from the US and that has made them more
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  Speaker 6: uncertain overall. Though given the uncertainty there where, this hurts investment,
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  Speaker 6: they hurts or that, but the fact that there was
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  Speaker 6: this huge fiscal commitment does make executives a lot more
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  Speaker 6: confident than they were.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Zoey, thanks a lot, really appreciated. Zoe snay
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  Speaker 2: Wise Bloomberg Western European Economy team leader. She heads up
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  Speaker 2: all the stuff over there in Frankfort. So she's in
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  Speaker 2: Frankfort and Paul and I are here in a Maryland room.
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  Speaker 2: financial advisors kind of coming together and discussing ideas and
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  Speaker 2: how to manage asset and wealth management for three days
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: of learning experiences and networking solutions as well. Really been
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  Speaker 2: a fascinating time so far. Keeping an eye on some
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  Speaker 2: of the equity moves. One is Meta and Constellation. Constellation
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  Speaker 2: Energy is up a little over half a percent, Metas
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  Speaker 2: down by five tens to one percent, but a Constellation
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  Speaker 2: Energy agree to sell power from an Illinois nuclear plant
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  Speaker 2: to Meta Platforms. Is a twenty year contract starting in
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  Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty seven. So Constellation's going to boost its
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  Speaker 2: own investment into the Clinton plans output and maybe we'll
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  Speaker 2: actually build another reactor at the site I did the
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  Speaker 2: energy and go, let's at a take angle now with
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  Speaker 2: man Deep saying Bloomberg intelligence in your technology analyst. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: Man Deep, why does Meta need this?
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  Speaker 7: Well, if they're raising their capex, which they did in
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  Speaker 7: their last earnings, that capex is going towards, you know,
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  Speaker 7: getting more AI chips, and you know, if you are
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  Speaker 7: putting more AI chips, you need more power. So clearly
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  Speaker 7: that is where the shortage is right now. And look,
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  Speaker 7: if this is an AI supercycle that we all believe
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  Speaker 7: it is going to be the case, and I think
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  Speaker 7: you will see a power supercycle as well. And in
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  Speaker 7: this case, all the hyperscalers will be looking to procure
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  Speaker 7: power for their data centers. I mean, Meta serves over
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  Speaker 7: three billion monthly active users across their family of apps. Now, granted,
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  Speaker 7: those users right now are using more CPU compute, but
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  Speaker 7: if you're rolling out AI tools and LLM searches. You
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  Speaker 7: need more power for the AI chips, and I think
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  Speaker 7: that's the intent here.
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  Speaker 3: And Mandy, let's be honest here. I mean, all you
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  Speaker 3: tech guys, you Silicon Valley guys, you always think you're
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  Speaker 3: the smartest guys in the room. But let's be honest.
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  Speaker 3: You guys don't know anything about the oil and gas
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  Speaker 3: business and the nuclear business. Why is Meta? And I'm
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  Speaker 3: guessing some others are going to kind of get more
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  Speaker 3: deeply and strategically involved in the energy side of their business.
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  Speaker 3: Is this a trend here?
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  Speaker 7: I mean, just look at how far they have come
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  Speaker 7: in terms of you know, infrastructure, Like a company like Google.
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  Speaker 7: Not only are they designing their own data centers and
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  Speaker 7: you know, creating their own chips, and now they are
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  Speaker 7: you know, procuring power to they extend that. They want
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  Speaker 7: to make sure that these AI chips, which can have
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  Speaker 7: volatile power needs, are most optimized when it comes to
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  Speaker 7: the efficiency of their infrastructure. And that's why these hyperscalar
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  Speaker 7: companies really have got so many different aspects to their mode.
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  Speaker 7: So it's not just about the search algorithm or in
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  Speaker 7: the case of Meta, you know, their social media knowledge graph.
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  Speaker 7: It is about the entirety of how they run their infrastructure,
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  Speaker 7: and that is what is a long term mode, because
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  Speaker 7: nobody else can operate at the scale at which these
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  Speaker 7: hyperscalers are operating right now.
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  Speaker 2: This is a fun fact in the article by Will
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  Speaker 2: Raid from Bloomberg. So Meta first of all, has a
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  Speaker 2: global energy head.
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  Speaker 3: They have a global energy head. Okay, all right, so
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  Speaker 3: they do.
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  Speaker 2: They're really kind of ramping that out, and they were
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  Speaker 2: looking at proposals the announcing December. They were looking at
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  Speaker 2: proposals for as much as four gigawatts of new US
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  Speaker 2: reactors and received fifty proposals from a range of companies,
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  Speaker 2: including Constellation. To that point, I'm also wondering Mande the
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  Speaker 2: significance of when they're building data centers and hyperscalers for
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  Speaker 2: lllm's a large language model and that training versus and
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  Speaker 2: they have to build stuff for inference which could be
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: smaller and more co located, so closer to the cities,
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  Speaker 2: closer to our Paul and I have our phone. Does
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  Speaker 2: that tend to look different than in terms of their
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  Speaker 2: power needs?
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  Speaker 7: Absolutely, And I think so far the market was concentrated
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  Speaker 7: towards training. Every year you would have a ten times
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  Speaker 7: larger model, which was more intelligent and it could do
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  Speaker 7: more in terms of you know, answering your queries. But
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  Speaker 7: with inferencing, you're right, I mean, the traffic patterns may
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  Speaker 7: vary depending on the population, and so if you're serving
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  Speaker 7: traffic in New York, it's very different from serving traffic
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  Speaker 7: somewhere else that may not have the same concentration. And
• 14:41
  Speaker 7: with that, I think the challenge these companies have had
• 14:45
  Speaker 7: is the transmission lines can be upgraded. I mean you need,
• 14:49
  Speaker 7: you know, a pretty lengthy review process and the whole
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: thing may take years. So right now they are trying
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  Speaker 7: to procure power wherever they can to offset the increased consumption,
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  Speaker 7: and some of it may come at the expense of
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  Speaker 7: power usage for some other purpose. Then you know why
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  Speaker 7: data center is being prioritized here, and that is what
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  Speaker 7: will be interesting because with inferencing, the power needs can
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  Speaker 7: be variable. I mean, one trend we have seen is
• 15:21
  Speaker 7: with reasoning, you need more compute, so you know, the
• 15:25
  Speaker 7: model is thinking a lot more at the time you
• 15:28
  Speaker 7: are putting the prompt in, as opposed to training, where
• 15:31
  Speaker 7: all of the training is happening in background over a
• 15:34
  Speaker 7: period of a few weeks. So reasoning is per query,
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  Speaker 7: and depending on how complex your query is, the model
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  Speaker 7: is doing more work and that's why it may need
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  Speaker 7: more power.
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  Speaker 3: Another data point from this Bloomberg News article, Meta is
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  Speaker 3: contracting for more power after the company's total electricity consumption
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  Speaker 3: nearly tripled from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty three. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: I guess they need some more energy. Mandy position the
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  Speaker 3: CAPEX numbers for Meta and for these other tech companies,
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  Speaker 3: they need to take those CAPEX numbers up even more.
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  Speaker 3: They're going to get deeper into the energy space.
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  Speaker 7: I mean, all signs are the CAPEX numbers may continue
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  Speaker 7: to go up, but right now, the biggest component of
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  Speaker 7: the CAPEX is still the spend on the GPU chips. Obviously,
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  Speaker 7: the power needs will take some portion of the CAPEX,
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  Speaker 7: but it's still not as big as the chips. And
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  Speaker 7: think of it this way. If you're getting you know,
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  Speaker 7: twenty thousand in Nvidia chips, the cost of keeping them
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  Speaker 7: idle or not being able to utilize them one hundred
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  Speaker 7: percent is way higher than anything you are spending in
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  Speaker 7: terms of you know, the energy deal that they had,
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  Speaker 7: So clearly they are focusing on utilizing the chips that
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  Speaker 7: they have already procured and that's why they are proactive
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  Speaker 7: with you know, these power deals.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Mandy, thanks a lot, really appreciate and man
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: deep saying joining us when we're intelligence senior Technology and.
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  Speaker 2: two thousand people are here. They talk about ideas, they
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: exchange thoughts about the markets and wealth management and private
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: wealth and alternatives.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: It's a pretty exciting.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: Dynamic place to be and joining us is one of
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: our favorites. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and head
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: of client portfolio Management at FREEDERA to Hermes.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: Phil, always good to see you, Alex.
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me back.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: It's a thrill.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: You've been coming to these for a long time, right,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: So what's the different vibe here this year?
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: Is there?
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: One?
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: The vibe is very optimistic. Really, there is more of
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: an emphasis on technology today and AI than there ever
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: has been. But that probably it's not surprising given the
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: evolution of the business. I've always found these conferences to
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: be very cutting edge in terms of what are the
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: key issues that are going to be driving us in
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: the months and years forward, and so far I haven't
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: been disappointed here today.
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: Phil, I'm just looking at the S and P five hundred.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: We've almost completely round trip peaked to trough back up
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: to peak here. What do you make of that? I mean,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: that was a short period of time, you saw big
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: moves in the marketplace. What do you do looking forward
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: for the next six months? Oh more to go?
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: I mean remember our full year target for the S
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: and P this year sixty five hundred. We've got a
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: seven thousand next year. So yes, we've had a really
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: nice bounce off of that support level. I think we're
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: up about twenty three percent of the S and P
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: five hundred. But again not surprising to us because that
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: waterfall decline was largely a function of the uncertainty relating
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: to the tariff situation, and to some degree, how is
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: the tax legislation going to work. We're starting to get
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: some early resolution of exactly, at least directionally, how that's
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: going to play out, and the market at that point
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: should begin to think about, Okay, what are the underlying fundamentals,
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: not the chaos associated with what caused the decline back
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: in early April.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: All right, let's pretend that we can put aside the kaas.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Then for a second, does that mean that tech continues
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: to lead or do we get the broadening out?
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: Well, yes, they can both be true.
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: So so our feeling going into the collapse was that
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: Bill Rally did need to broaden out. We were de
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: emphasizing sort of the technology and the Mag seven names
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: because we felt that they were ahead of themselves. So
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: the area of focus for us was the forgotten four
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: ninety three, the value names, the international names, the smaller
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: cap names. But as the market you came down twenty
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: one percent, the Max seven names were down forty five
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: five percent. So as we started to put additional money
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: to work, we increased our equity allocation to a five
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: percent overweight near the bottom that incremental ad for US
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: was in domestic large cap growth. So we recognized that
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: forty five percent down was actually an attractive point to
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: start to put some money back to work.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: You know, with a little bit of hindsight, As we
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: think back to that sell off in April, a couple
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: of things kind of come to mind. Number One, we
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: had people during the sell off telling us, you know,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: people aren't panicking out there. That's number one. And number two,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: retail is buying. What is that? What are those two
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: things to kind of tell you that kind of I
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: guess in hindsight I was said, boy, I should have
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: been buying there because the retail aganis are buying. I
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: don't think I really saw one panic selling.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, we've done some work looking at the
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: performance of the market literally over.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: The last half a century, okay.
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: And over that period of time there have been ten
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: massive declines twenty percent or more twenty thirty, forty to fifty,
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: and in every instance that was a great buying opernity
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: that over the long cycle, the ingenuity and hard work
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: of the American people stocks up into the right. So
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: if you look at those big declines down and think
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: you understand what the underlying fundamentals are that to us
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: was a reasonably and an attractive buying point.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: So how do you look in I will talk about
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: this before, but how do you look at it the
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: next six to eight months?
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: As you manage the.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Uncertainty, you just be really strategic. You have your buying
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: list and you think of it that way and you
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: kind of ignore the actual headlines.
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: Well, we take a longer term perspective that we're looking
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: at six to twelve to eighteen to twenty four months,
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: and as we look at that perspective, the noise and
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: the nonsense and the chaos associated with the day to
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: day we sort of screen out.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: But some of those things could be structural.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: They could be and if they were structural, we would
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: change our view. But we've got a view that for example,
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: our GDP forecast for next year is two point seven percent.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: All right, that doesn't sound like much, but consensus has
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: one three. The highest estimate on the street other than
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: us is two percent. So we think that things are
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: going to work out over the course of the next
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: eighteen months, and if we're right, we want to be
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: buyers of stocks in that environment.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: Do we still have earnings risk. I know earning testaments
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: have come down, but do we still have earnings risk?
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Do you take out there because we still have tariffs
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: that are going to be gradually rolling into the economy,
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: there's always earnings risk.
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: But we just got through the first quarter and revenues
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: ro up about five percent, earnings roup about twelve percent.
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are better than expected. Uh, you know, we've
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: sort of adjusted our full year numbers based upon the
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: implementation of tariffs, but that trajectory is still positive.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: All right, Phil, Really great to chat with you. Good
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: to see you in person.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: It's so weird but you just not ask me how
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: fill Orlando was chief equity.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: Thank you very much for having me on.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: I bet a chief ecuty market strategist and head of
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: client portfolio Management at Betra Hermes, joining us on the market.
• 22:53
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