Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - War Cancelled⁉️ Why Banks Are About to Buy BIG! + Stock Market News 24 June 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - War Cancelled⁉️ Why Banks Are About to Buy BIG! + Stock Market News 24 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: You're joined by Winston who's looking a little aloof there in the corner.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: That's how he feels about the war in the Middle East and I'm going to walk you through why that whole war soap opera there does not matter one little bit to the market today, so you really understand it.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I'll also walk you through why Wall Street is underweight US stocks and what that actually means for you.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: And then, thirdly, how HIMSS has just responded to Novo no Disks accusations, which are pretty big.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And then a warning for smart investors I don't know we've only got smart investors in this room, so I think you'd appreciate that information you're going to get there, which usually only Wall Street insiders see, and then we'll do a big Q&A.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: We're going to do a big stock review as usual.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I shall share my screen with you if I can.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: There we are, so we're going to walk through this the Trump-US-Israel malarkey, why Wall Street's underweight stocks and what that means for you, how HIMSS is responding to Nomele Disc A bigly warning for smart investors and we do a big Q&A.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: If you think that's going to be useful for you, those five items, put a five in the chat, and I know that it's going to give you some value and you look like James Bond.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: That's probably one of the kind of things somebody said to me on one of these live streams.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: France is present.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I must have a pick a bone with the French viewers here.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I'll be getting French spam in the comments, which is really weird, really, really very weird.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: So too many French people here, clearly.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Now, okay, this is kind of hard to believe and to really understand.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I need to show you the screenshots because otherwise you won't really believe me that this is actually real.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: This is the president's truth account or ex-account or whatnot.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Won't really believe me that this is actually real.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: This is the president's truth account or X account or whatnot.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: And he's saying Israel was about to fly to Iran and attack it yet again.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: After Iran has fired some missiles in the other directions and Donald Trump writes Israel is not going to attack Iran.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: All planes will turn around and head home while doing a friendly plane wave to Iran, nobody be hurt, the ceasefire is in effect.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: So that was sort of a statement, as he told, of Israel or something.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And then, well, israel, do not drop those bombs.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: If you do, it's a major violation.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Bring your pilots home now, which is kind of weird, because it sort of implies that, well, maybe they didn't pick up the phone and this is now the way that the US president communicates with Israel A bit unusual.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: And what happened next?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Well, trump was heading for Marine One and he said this we basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the F they're doing.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So he's definitely very, very frustrated in Iran.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Israel did strike something in Iran and the tit-for-tat obviously continues, so there is no ceasefire Now.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: If you thought that that would be the end of the world, I'll explain that to you in a second too, why that isn't the end of the world at all.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: But Trump here says something I think is actually very smart, and I'm getting a lot of hate for that.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Whenever I agree with one politician or the other, everyone thinks I love everything they do.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It's not really how this works.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: But he says I don't want to see regime change in Iran.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Regime change brings chaos, which is true.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Look at Iraq, look at Libya, look at Egypt I mean, there are countless examples Afghanistan.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: You know there's always chaos, but this is what matters to the market.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: The numbers of oil and gas tankers traveling through the Gulf have been increasing the last three days, so nobody cares Because the oil and the gas is flowing.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: This is not really relevant for anybody.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Plus, I look like Andy Warhol must be the haircut today.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Matthew McConaughey, there's a lot of quite quite I mean quite quite nice comparisons today.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I quite like that.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: The Sicilians are here Now.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I am worried.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, even if oil production drops in the Gulf, this oil production goes to where it does not go to the US.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Very little of it goes to Europe.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Most of it goes to Asia.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So the stock market doesn't really care because the US stock market is very little Asia exposure.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: That's just the reality of the market.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Market does not care about this war any longer.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: But the following thing is big and, by the way, if you're thinking well, what are my stocks?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Am I therefore going to buy?
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Obviously you're going to be thinking about that.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: We're going to run through some of those.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: My answer is the same every single day of the year.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: There's a simple set of rules that Wall Street's been using for 50 plus years.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: You can learn those rules in about 15 minutes.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: For 50 plus years.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: You can learn those rules in about 15 minutes, and you will then never, ever, ever, have to ask me or anybody else what about this stock?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: What about HIMSS today?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: What about Uber?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: What about the Tesla rally?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Should I buy it?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Should I sell it?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: You know those natural questions that you have, which are good because it shows you have an inquisitive nature and you're wondering, like what the heck to do.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: But you can actually get an answer to that, a very simple answer, and I give you that answer um, courtesy of winston there in the corner.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: He really is looking a bit.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Uh, his tummy was a bit upset today.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I think that's why he's looking like that.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Um, you can get access to that for free at felix friends at all slash, get free, and literally all you got to do is you got to click on the link that I put into the live chat.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: You don't even need to type, and then you just leave this video and you watch something better, which is what that is.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So I'd love it if our concurrent viewers are dropping from about 2,500 to, you know, say, two, and all of you went over there and learned that.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I would be very, very, very happy.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So go and check that out.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Klaus Kinski what does Klaus Kinski look like?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know what he looks like, so again, I'll just take it as a compliment.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: You see, I'm generously minded.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: This here is bigly information, and this actually comes credit where credit's due.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Fundstrat put this out.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Now, of course it is just Bank of America.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a silly thing, isn't it?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Exclusive use of Fundstrat clients only.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Well, it's from Bank of America's Global Fund Manager survey.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It's probably for Bank of America clients only.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: But anyway, we just spread the word here.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So it was out there on social media.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: So it is fair use at this point.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: But an interesting thing on this chart is that fund managers you know the Muppets who lose you money most of the time, those guys in their silly pinstriped suits those guys are currently massively underweight.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: The US, the United States, the biggest stock market in the world, the most important economy in the world, the place where all innovation happens.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: They're short essentially, or underweight, at least the US.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So what do you think is going to happen in the second half of the year when the same num-nod fund managers realize that the US stock market is actually outperforming everywhere else and that the US is getting very, very big tax cuts, which will benefit very large US stocks the most, and therefore those stocks are going to go up significantly more.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: What do you think those numbnuts are going to do?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Well, they're going to chase, aren't they?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: And they're going to move the money back into the US.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, it's just one of those.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It just makes no sense.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Honestly, fund managers by and large throw them off a cliff.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: The world would be a better place, not literally, obviously, right, I need to put that disclaimer there for the kind of people who need a disclaimer.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Coffee you just ordered might be hot.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It might burn you if you pour it over yourself.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, really, I'm talking to you Americans.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: You know, it's true.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: It's just the lawyers have taken over your country.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: That's who I would.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I would be deporting lawyers, just like, basically, law school bus to the border.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Send them all to Mexico.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: That's what I say.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Now, we've offended all the lawyers, so that's always a good idea, isn't it Now great to make lots of money?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Absolutely this year is the response.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: This is item number three, and then we're going to look at the big warning for for smart investors here, and I'm disappointed in you because the view count just keeps going up.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I told you all to leave and go to felix.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Friends at rock slash, get free to watch something better than this, but apparently nobody pays paying attention to me.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So this is the complaint from Novo, and they said that HIMSS has failed to adhere to the law, that they are disseminating deceptive marketing that puts patient safety at risk, engage in illegal sham compounding that jeopardizes the health of Americans, and that the ingredients in the knockoff drugs sold by these people are made by foreign suppliers in China, and that US patients should not be exposed to knockoff drugs made with unsafe and illicit foreign ingredients.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Made with unsafe and illicit foreign ingredients.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: That's pretty tough stuff.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: That's pretty tough stuff.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know if legal read through that, because if this isn't true, then that's a lawsuit waiting to happen.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Any lawyers on the chat here?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: There must be some right.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: We have to have our morning shot of Gackt's, absolutely.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I just had mine.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I just had mine, which is the most important thing, of course.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Now here is Andrew, ceo and founder of HIMSS, and he says we're disappointed in you.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: He says the NorwunderDIS commercial team has increasingly pressured us to control clinical standards and steer patients to be govey, regardless of whether it was clinically best for patients.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: We refuse to be strong-armed.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: We shall fight them on the beaches.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: We shall something like that.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: We take our role in protecting the ability of our providers and patients to control treatment decisions extremely seriously.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: We will not compromise the integrity of our platforms to appease a third party or anybody else.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: We continue to offer access to angel treatments.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Blah, blah, blah.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Pretty strong answer.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: He's obviously pissed, right.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: You'd be too, if somebody called you a sham compounder.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: So that's that.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Now what's the stock doing on that news?
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Fear index has dropped to 18, by the way, because there is no ceasefire.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: It's a funny old world we live in, isn't it?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Himss pre-market, it's sort of a rebound for ants.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: We're up from 42 to.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: We're up 36 cents from yesterday.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: So the market not particularly impressed by this tit for tat.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So what's the warning for you guys out there?
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Information Bartholomew for a cat name.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I thought about that actually.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I think Bartholomew would be a great name for a golden retriever.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: That's really what Winston's lobbying for.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: There's an Andy Winston.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: There is Winston.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: He looks a bit out of the weather, doesn't he?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: He just played with him.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: He was actually quite all right.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I think he's a little out of the weather.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: He probably ate something.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: He eats things like pig poop and all sorts of stuff.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: He upsets his stomach sometimes, not pig monkeys and that sort of thing.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: We have all sorts of things here.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: This is from our lobbies at Goldman and Sachs.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: There's even no.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: And in there, goldman Sachs, there's even no.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: And in there, goldman Sachs, they've tightened the belts, they got rid of the and They've sold them, deported them.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: And they're saying that pension funds are modeled to sell 19 billion of US stocks for the month end, which is quite a lot.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: It's quite a lot.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So it's one of the biggest month and sales of stocks.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Now why the heck would pension funds sell a winning market?
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Because pension funds are a terrible way to invest unless there's a huge, huge, huge tax advantage.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So again, I draw my pie.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: What am I about to say?
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Pension funds in the sort of classical sense have, say, a 40% bond allocation and a 60% stock allocation.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: It's probably a little bit more complicated than that, but let's keep it simple for our sakes.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I can't even spell buy, right?
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: So I wrote bunny with one N.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So I probably better keep it simple.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: End.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So I probably better keep it simple.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Now the stock market has recovered quite a bit.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So they probably now own, say, 65% of their portfolio in stocks and only 35% of their portfolio in bonds.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So what do they therefore have to do?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: They sell the stocks and they buy some bonds.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: So every time the market goes up, these Muppets sell, therefore ensuring maximum underperformance.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It's like saying, oh, my stock's up 20%, let's sell it.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: You're like, why?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Because it's up 20%.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, but what if it goes up to 200%?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: You know case in point?
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I'll give you one here.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Hello, albert.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Here is Albert.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: He's somebody who does not like to sell early, don't you, albert?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: He's a real maximized profit sort of a guy.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: So if I open the chart for you, say, on one of the things I wish I hadn't sold, no-transcript, it had actually gone up 140%, and then my stop kicked in here at 80%, and right now it is up about 270% or so.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So the pension funds would have sold that down here.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Idiotic, isn't it?
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: But it keeps everybody poor and that probably makes somebody happy.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know, not me, not Albert.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: So here is the warning number two.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: So the warning there is simply that there will be a 19 billion stock sell-off at the end of this month.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: It's programmed in, can't do anything about it.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And then, albert, don't press the enter button.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Bad things happen when you do that.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: And then secondly, as Albert very astutely just pointed out, that the buyback window is closing, the door is closing, and what does it mean?
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: 70% of the S&P 500 stocks are now on blackout.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: By the end of this week it'll be a rather more bigly 85% Maybe Albert's sitting on the pen, handy Albert.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: So by the end of this week it'll be 85% of companies are no longer buying their own stocks, and that's because they're not permitted to, because the next earning season is upon us, isn't that right, albert?
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think he understands more of this than I do, don't you think?
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I think so Slightly concerning, I think all portfolio management will be handed over to Albert from now on.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: So that means we were getting about $6 billion a day or so in buybacks, and that's vanishing, basically.