Fear won the vote, and Netanyahu still lost his majority

Tel Aviv Diary Podcast · Oct 30, 2026 · 31m

Netanyahu’s coalition walked into this election with 68 seats and walked out with 53. The opposition holds the majority. Yet the night felt like a defeat, because the Likud voters who swore to pollsters they were done with him voted for him anyway.

Marc looks at why: a late fear campaign built on mushroom clouds over Tel Aviv, a base that gets its news almost entirely from Channel 14, and a party loyalty that works more like identity than politics. Gadi Eisenkot was embraced in development towns and the Carmel Market, and it still wasn’t enough.

The other surprise was Arab-Israeli turnout…