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Last Updates Before 2024 Election · Project 2028

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome to Project 2028. Thank you so much for clicking on our podcast and for
• 0:14
  listening to this episode. Welcome to the special election day edition of our podcast. So in this
• 0:24
  episode, we are going to be doing things like our personal prediction, who we think would win,
• 0:27
  and updates on polling as there have been some changes in some of the most trusted polls. We're
• 0:34
  also going to talk about the different scenarios of election day when we would be able to see
• 0:41
  results, which is going to be not Tuesday, not tomorrow, most likely. They might be able to make
• 0:50
  a prediction, and usually they can, but with a close race like this, they probably won't be able
• 0:54
  to. We are also going to talk about how the younger generations have become more involved
• 1:00
  politically, along with the opposite side of that, how it's very hard for people in college to vote,
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  and possibly more. Now let's dive right in.
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  Okay, so I'm going to start off with my personal opinion. So if you go back to our maps from the
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  September 17th episode called Election Predictions and General Recap, on our Instagram you will see
• 1:34
  all our maps. So I'm going to reference mine. I pretty much agree with most of my map. I don't
• 1:44
  really know if there's anything I would necessarily change. I was pretty positive with my prediction
• 1:53
  when I made this map. The only thing is Nevada might go blue, and that would, I believe, actually
• 2:01
  change my results. If Nevada did go blue, yeah, I think it would. So that would be my difference.
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  So on my map I have Trump winning. Personally, I do think he is going to win. You ask anyone
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  around me for the past two, two and a half years, I've been kind of saying he has a higher chance
• 2:20
  of winning, especially against Joe. I didn't think there was even a chance, and now that we have
• 2:28
  Kamala running against him, I think there's a greater percentage that he loses. However, I
• 2:36
  still do believe he will be our next president. And then Luchana is going to talk about her map,
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  and then we'll talk about how our maps are a bit similar. So yeah, there aren't many differences
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  between our maps, except I have Wisconsin going blue. I think that Wisconsin will end up blue,
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  and I also have, I don't have any of the districts of Maine going red, which honestly I would change
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  that. I'd go back and change that district of Maine to be red, because I just think that's how
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  it's going to end up. And I also, I'm not sure about Nevada. I think Nevada is just going to be
• 3:21
  so tricky, kind of like Elle said, and also Pennsylvania. I think those are going to be...
• 3:26
  Yeah, sorry. I agree. I think those are going to be the two big deciding states in this election.
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  I definitely agree, and I also think that our election apps are very similar. There's pictures
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  of them on our Instagram, which you can check out. You will see we have two different states,
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  which all, we also have two different outcomes. Mine is Kamala, hers is Trump. So it just comes
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  down to these couple crucial states that will decide the election. Yeah, and same with Ryan's.
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  I think the biggest difference between Ryan's map and my map, because we both have Trump winning,
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  is he has it a lot closer, and he has Nevada going blue. I have, I think he also has Pennsylvania
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  going blue. So do I. But we all do. I have half of Maine, like two of the Maine districts going red.
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  He only has one of the Maine districts going red, and then that's like, I guess the biggest
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  difference in ours, that gives us that closer prediction. And Ryan will, he's not with us
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  right now, but he's coming, so I'm going to insert his opinion here. So now that they've kind of
• 4:41
  given their takes on some of the Electoral College stuff, only a day away. Right now,
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  it's around three, three o'clock, day before election night, just to kind of time stamp it,
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  because things, as I'll reference later, can change a lot in the final day, not like polling wise,
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  but just race the way it works. And I'll kind of talk about that later, how there can be some
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  stuff that could be pretty monumental happening in the next few hours and days of you listening
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  to this podcast. But first of all, I think we need to talk about my electoral election map.
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  I think I'm going to stick with, most certainly, I think the polling in the states that I've chosen
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  pretty stands up. I think the Rust Belt, if I had to change one thing in the Rust Belt,
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  so obviously the Rust Belt states are going to be more in the eastern, northeast kind of side of the
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  United States, if I had to change anything, I might flip my Pennsylvania to Trump right now.
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  It's been a slight 0.1 point advantage for Trump, which is nothing for all intents and
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  purposes for the past week or so, since we've seen kind of a polling change. And if you look at the
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  past two elections that have had Trump as a candidate, he's made strides of anywhere from
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  last year or last election cycle, it was around three points. And in 2020, it was around two and
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  a half points in the models, just weeks coming before the election. So Trump has this little
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  knack for pulling it out right at the end of the election. It's quite impressive. And it's shot up
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  his chances of victory to nearly 54% and 56%, respectively, in the election models as they have
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  been ran today. So if I had to reverse anything, I would swing Pennsylvania, I might swing some of
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  the Midwestern states back to them, kind of on the left side of the Rust Belt. And then I think
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  this, I'll stay with my Sun Belt with North Carolina, Georgia, and project a Trump win.
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  But that kind of brings me relatively quickly, which is polling that he asked to talk about.
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  And we think he is best fit to talk about because of his knowledge about the topic.
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  So he will get into that in a minute. We're going to do a bit of transition into polling,
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  mainly federal, but some House and Senate stuff too.
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  And this is kind of going to bring us back to just the day before polling, the last polls we're
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  getting were kind of published this weekend. So let's get into it. House, Senate, let's go.
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  Right now, nationally, he leads by 0.9 points nationally, which is well within the margin of
• 7:29
  error nationally. And in every swing state is within the margin of error. So you could very
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  well see, and I think a lot of people could be expecting, a victory decisively on election night
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  for one candidate. Now it's very possible that there isn't one and that it's very close like
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  it was in 2020. But also, and hopefully they've corrected, but nobody really knows until the
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  election is over. The polls are systemically underrepresented Trump voters in the past two
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  elections leading, I mean, Joe Biden was up by nine-ish points at some point in the 2020
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  campaign and Hillary Clinton had a 80% chance of winning on election night.
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  So the polls are pretty good systemically under polling and under representing Trump voters.
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  However, they may have fixed that, but I think that's certainly one of the points.
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  They've done some studies on it and it's getting better, but it's certainly not fixed.
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  So I think that could be represented in the polls. Obviously, the Republicans have a much
• 8:23
  higher chance of winning in a specific scenario where they lose the electoral college, or they
• 8:30
  win the electoral college, but lose the popular vote. Democrats only have one or two scenarios
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  out of every few thousand where they win the electoral college, but lose the popular vote
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  just because of demographics. But then if you look, and I'll update us later kind of on the Senate
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  and the way the house is looking, that it flips nearly. But if you're looking at the presidential
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  race, it is extremely close, extremely tight. You could see a decisive victory on election night
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  for either candidate, or possibly more likely, it could take days, weeks, and a lot of lawsuits
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  for this to only get fixed. Certainly one of the closest elections that we've seen polling wise
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  in the past few decades, certainly since I've been alive, and it is leading up into a really
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  good election night. Hopefully you're listening to this before, if you're listening to this after,
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  you might have some more insight. But that is certainly where it's going. I kind of want to
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  segue a bit to the Senate and House models. First, we'll start with the Senate,
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  just with precedence. And the Republicans, this is kind of an anomaly. They're projected to win
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  at 92% of the time. That's due to just the fact that Republican seats, for every Republican seat
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  that's up, there's nearly two or three Democratic seats. So Democrats would have to pull off some
• 9:43
  pretty incredible odds there just to regain their own seats and then flip seats in places where
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  it's pretty hard, like Texas flipping Ted Cruz's seat, where it is possible. But it's certainly
• 9:56
  on the harder side of victories. There's been record amounts of money spent in the Senate races
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  by both the Democrats and Republicans, but not necessarily in the most useful ways, as it's kind
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  of uncompetitive. It would be quite the shock to see any Democratic or non-Republican win.
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  Obviously the Democrats and Republicans could split, obviously, and the presidential election
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  could decide. But that's also another slow chance contingency scenario. Finally, kind of to pivot
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  a bit to the House, more interesting, more fun to watch on election night specifically. There's
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  just more seats. It's more chaos. And it is extremely likely. If you look at the graph,
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  it's identical almost on both sides for the standard distribution of outcomes,
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  which shows just an incredibly, incredibly close race. Right now it's out of a thousand simulations,
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  538 Republicans winning, 506 of them, and the Democrats winning 494. Obviously every single
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  seat's up for election this year. They need 218 to have a majority. And it is going to be extremely
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  close, possibly, and more likely because of the fact that there are so many more seats. It is
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  going to be closer than the presidential election. However, we are seeing, this is getting into the
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  intricacies, but there's a bit less split tick of voting these days than there was most certainly
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  20 or 30 years ago. But there is still a bit, which could lead to a split Senate or a split
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  presidency between Congress, which would be certainly an interesting dynamic.
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  The Republicans, if I do some quick math, my head here, 90%, 20, yeah, okay. They have around
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  21% chance of getting a full sweep of all three of the major governing and enforcement bodies,
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  the presidency and then all of Congress. Whereas Democrats do just basically, Congress have around
• 11:54
  a 2% chance because it would be so slim to get all three, including the Congress. So it's always
• 12:01
  possible with some systemic polling error. That would be quite amazing, but it would be quite
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  shocking for the pollsters, but it would be certainly within not a one in a million balance.
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  But that's kind of going to wrap up at least my part of the polling. I think Luchana is going
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  to talk about her. She did talk about it. So hopefully that kind of brings you some insights,
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  just on election night, kind of about what we're seeing, what the pollsters are seeing,
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  and kind of what the demographics are looking like for the voters and in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt
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  states that are for contention in this election. So thanks for listening to my part and then we'll
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  get back to something else. Hi, y'all. This is Luchana just adding on one last thing. So this
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  isn't, I don't think this is really relevant to the outcomes, which is something that I thought
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  was kind of interesting. So there is Professor Alan Lichman, who has predicted nine out of the
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  last 10 elections correctly. And he thinks that Kamala is going to win. He's been interviewed
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  about that recently, nine hours ago, as of the time we're recording that. And he says, no,
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  I still stand by that. I still think she's going to win. I'm just sure about it. And he's been
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  very correct in the past, but the Gallup poll, which is not always, which predicts like the
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  popular vote, not the electoral college, popular vote. I knew this before Ryan yelled at me about
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  it. I'm mentioning that, but the Gallup poll, the Gallup poll is predicting a Trump win. So it's
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  kind of interesting that these two very accurate sources, while the Gallup poll again predicts the
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  popular vote, they're kind of having contradicting opinions. I think it's going to be really
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  interesting to see which one ends up being correct. Thank you very much. And to add a bit on to
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  Luchana's point, like we talked about earlier, national popular vote polls, they're kind of
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  antithetical to election. Obviously they can show sentiment and all that. But that's kind of beside
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  the point. Something I did also want to talk about the ads to her thing is there's another guy kind
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  of competing right now, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, who no longer works here, a guy named Adam Silver.
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  He's a gambler, sports better, basically a statistical little wizard. And he has founded
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  quite a few polling places. And he, right now, he, since Biden dropped out of the race,
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  he has predicted a Trump win that's based off a bit of different methodology. Obviously,
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  Lichman uses the 13 keys to the White House, which is a set of 13 true or false questions.
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  And Silver uses a bit more different methodology, you could say, based on percentages,
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  national demographics and stuff like that. But both of them are kind of going to be competing
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  in a horse race in this election for credence. And they've been doing a bit of online sparring
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  about each other's models, but it's been quite fun to watch. So that's going to kind of finish
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  up this episode. Oh, oh, hasn't it? So Kamala Harris is up in the Ann Salter polls. Ryan does
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  not enjoy the way she chooses to pick her sample base that she uses for her poll predictions.
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  However, I thought it would be important to kind of mention obviously Kamala. Yeah. Yeah. Obviously,
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  like personal bias in some senses are super dangerous and we see it a lot. But it's just
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  another kind of poll to add into what has been changing. Yeah. No, just to add to that, obviously,
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  the more polls, the better. I some of that polling sampling and cells are does bad, but it's pretty,
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  it's close to the national average. So it doesn't look like there's anything too systemic
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  between her stuff and the stuff it just sometimes that kind of stuff has a hard time predicting,
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  as I said, the national electoral vote, because that's based on a multitude of factors, demographics
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  from the states, split ticket voting. But I digress. All of them, they're correct. And that'll
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  finish up the polling segment. So yeah. Okay, the next thing we're going to discuss is the
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  different scenarios for when we get the results. So there are a couple opinions on this. I read
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  some articles saying that they think we're going to get them the night of people's reasoning for
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  this is kind of like, oh, well, with COVID, almost all of the ballots were like mail in ballots.
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  So with fewer of those, it's going to take less time to count. I've also heard people saying,
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  no, it's going to take even longer. Like, we're not going to know what the results for a really
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  long time. Which one do you think is more likely? Yeah, I think we're going to see them like the
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  complete results around Saturday or Sunday of this week. I think that we will obviously get some
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  states like California, like Illinois night of, because those are super predictable, always go
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  blue states. Texas is another one. We won't really see a flip in, bless you. We won't really see a
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  flip in who has control of the state. If they're very historically one tipping way. But other than
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  that, I think, especially with some states like Georgia, where you need to count every single
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  ballot, that's definitely going to push us back. This is the first time we've had this in an
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  election. That's definitely my main kind of thought when I think about my personal prediction is
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  Sunday. I remember last year we got the results on a Saturday. This year I'm pushing that to Sunday
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  because of that additional restriction in Georgia. And also, I think there's still going to be a very
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  significant number of mail in ballots this year. I think last year people realized how easy it was.
• 17:56
  So they're kind of going to do it again this year. Yeah, I really agree with that. I also think that
• 18:03
  some of the closer to call states, they're going to have to count more ballots. Yeah, they're going
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  to be more ballots counted in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, ones we mentioned already
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  in earlier this episode, as well as Michigan. Just because those are harder to call states.
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  I also think there's going to be a lot of difficulties, especially we've seen in the
• 18:26
  past week, ballot boxes being set on fire. Those people don't have to re-vote. We have to make sure
• 18:31
  that their vote gets actually counted. We have to make sure there have been just ballots,
• 18:39
  like boxes of ballots just left on the streets. Those have to be made sure that it's not voting
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  twice. I think we've had a lot of issues in the past week and definitely we're going to see them
• 18:49
  on election day itself that is going to have to delay the results. Oh, I definitely agree with
• 18:58
  Elle there. My other thought was, Elle, do you think there's going to be a higher voting turnout
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  this time? Or like a higher voter turnout? Because I think I've seen a lot of people that are like,
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  well, I don't care either way. I don't like either candidate. But I've also seen a lot of people that
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  are like, no, this is my first time voting because I'm really passionate about this election. So
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  I'm just curious to see what you think or if those are going to kind of cancel out and it'll end up
• 19:23
  the same. Yeah. So I think that we will see a higher turnout of voters. I think since 2020,
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  we have a new, like the four year group of people who weren't able to vote in that election. It
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  seems like they are a lot more passionate about their opinions and they are more eager to vote
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  than we've seen in past generations. I also think that it has been made very clear how important
• 19:53
  this election is, how our country could really go into very different directions. And I think
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  people really want to do their part to ensure that their candidate has a better chance of winning.
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  This is definitely for both sides. We've seen a lot more liberal teens kind of, and we'll touch
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  on this later, kind of talk about this subject more publicly and openly. But I think that's more
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  because again, we'll touch on this later. I think it's a little harder to put on social media and
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  stuff like that conservative opinions just because of the way social media is wired.
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  I'd also like to say it depends what social media you're on. Oh, for sure. Because like,
• 20:35
  if you go on Twitter, Twitter's very conservative, but then like TikTok is going to be more liberal
• 20:45
  than Facebook. Yeah, and it definitely comes to like looking at generations. Like the younger
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  generation is more on TikTok, Snapchat, which I don't really know if you consider that social
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  media, but that's another thing. And then middle ages, Instagram. Instagram mostly. Yeah, threads.
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  Instagram stays pretty moderate, I feel like. I'd say it's been leaning more democratic recently,
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  but I definitely see my fair share of both. I think the tradwives have really taken over Instagram.
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  Yes, for sure. And then obviously Twitter or X and Facebook are more older, which makes them lean
• 21:25
  more conservative just because of how the generations play out. And if you're curious
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  about learning more about the generational demographics, you should listen to one of our
• 21:33
  most recent episodes. The one just before this, where we discuss what groups of voters are leaning
• 21:41
  which way. Yeah. So we just kind of discussed this in our last segment. We also discussed this in our
• 21:51
  demographics episode, but the younger generations have really been turning up to talk about what
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  they believe in online, in person, starting Instagram channels and newsletters and talking
• 22:03
  to their friends, starting podcasts, just to get the word out there, encourage people to vote.
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  And I think the most common idea is these are old people deciding the future of young people. And
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  I think that's something that a lot of people are really upset about, especially the most important
• 22:21
  issue in the election for young women is abortion, which hasn't really been an issue that was on the
• 22:27
  ballot before in the same sense it is now. So I think that's really going to affect how many
• 22:32
  young people show up to vote. But one of the things that's really hard about this is,
• 22:37
  pardon me, people in college. So freshmen in college, if they're going to a school in a
• 22:45
  different state, which lots of them are, they can't vote from that state in most of these states.
• 22:52
  They can't vote from that state unless they've been a resident for over three months. So unless
• 22:57
  they move in before August 5th, then they can't cast their ballots as a resident of that state.
• 23:04
  Which would be hard considering most colleges start mid to late August. And we see here,
• 23:10
  where we live, college starts in mid September. Yeah, and I mean, as great as it is to vote and
• 23:18
  as important as it is, it's very unrealistic to expect people to be there a month early so that
• 23:23
  they can be a resident of that state to vote. Like that's just absolutely unrealistic. And then it's
• 23:29
  really just hard and a long process to get those absentee ballots from your states. And it's,
• 23:35
  as much as these college students care, it's kind of a tedious process to go through with
• 23:39
  when you're trying to move in and get settled. So I just think that one of the most important
• 23:45
  things is when you're trying to encourage this young generation to be political and vocal and
• 23:53
  be activists and serve their community, you have to make sure that their voices are heard. And by
• 23:59
  having all these rules that really hinder their ability to vote, you're not doing that. And it's
• 24:05
  just gonna, I think that's gonna kind of affect how they view like politics. Yeah, I couldn't have
• 24:11
  said that better myself. It was a great kind of explanation about college voters. I'm gonna
• 24:18
  backtrack a little to the younger generation. So obviously, as people who are 14, 15, we are
• 24:29
  obviously unable to vote next year, or not next year, next election, we will be able to vote.
• 24:34
  And I think something that people aren't really realizing is what is happening in the government
• 24:40
  now, what is being voted on, what is being passed directly affects not only our lives for the next
• 24:46
  four years, our lives until we're dead, and our lives until our kids are dead, so on and so forth.
• 24:52
  These are really important issues, especially every election, but especially this one,
• 24:56
  when it comes to policy things, migration, abortion, education, any, any, and really all
• 25:04
  of the big players in this election. So when you don't have the mindset that what is being
• 25:12
  decided on now affects you, you don't care about it. I know from our personal listening base,
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  it's a lot of people in the 30 plus category, which obviously there are some younger people
• 25:26
  listening, which we thank you. But I know like very few of our friends are listening, because
• 25:31
  they just don't realize it affects them. Ryan, he's obviously still not here with us, but he was
• 25:39
  telling me this story today, how people were asking him about it in lunch today. And he said
• 25:42
  it was the only time all year that people have said anything political to him, because they're
• 25:48
  just now caring because the elections tomorrow, and we don't have school tomorrow. Like that's a
• 25:54
  people are excited that we don't have school, but they don't understand the reason why. In our
• 25:57
  school, I actually just sent an email about 15 minutes ago, saying like how it's important to
• 26:02
  know what's happening. But people don't read those emails. Like these are not like topics that are
• 26:08
  being discussed. Like they're not sharing this information in classes. Like this would be a
• 26:16
  really good thing to talk about our history classes. Especially as learning about history
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  is one of the main ways we can figure out how we want to vote, because you're trying to,
• 26:27
  obviously, prevent the bad things that you don't like from happening again, and you want to go back
• 26:32
  and, I guess, read new the things that happened that you liked. Yeah, and then if we move to
• 26:42
  like TikTok, we are obviously seeing people going on live. We see this on Instagram too, kind of
• 26:49
  debating people on the spot. Those are really entertaining. They get a lot of people kind of
• 26:55
  interested because it's obviously like they are talking about statistics and policy, but they're
• 27:00
  making it more fun. Yeah, definitely. Just a debate setting in general is considered more fun
• 27:06
  to listen to, to watch. And then if we move over to YouTube, we're seeing those same debaters. There
• 27:12
  are a couple that are more prevalent than others debating some of the biggest, I guess, conservatives.
• 27:20
  And we also are seeing this on the flip side where conservative teens are debating,
• 27:27
  or teens, younger generation, are debating some of the more well-known conservatives. Yeah,
• 27:34
  me and Lutrona, one of the biggest people we're seeing of this is the Jubilee YouTube channel,
• 27:39
  which has a lot of other stuff. Ryan? Sorry, y'all. Ryan was laughing at us, but obviously,
• 27:47
  don't get your information from there, but it's definitely a good source of entertainment when it
• 27:50
  comes to something a little more lighthearted about the election while still trying to kind of
• 27:55
  learn a slight bit more on why people are choosing to vote for the candidate they're choosing to vote
• 28:00
  for. Okay, we're kind of going to go on a little bit of a tangent now. So obviously, we talked
• 28:06
  about the different scenarios, the different things that we're going to see when it comes to
• 28:10
  the election, but now we're going to talk about the overall kind of atmosphere, how people are
• 28:15
  going to react when states start coming out, and when the results obviously get announced. Okay,
• 28:23
  I think this is, pardon me, this is one of the most intense elections we're going to see.
• 28:30
  I think that there will be a lot of very strong feelings. No matter who wins, I think last year,
• 28:38
  obviously, we saw with January 6th, like people were upset enough to riot, and I think we're
• 28:44
  definitely going to see some of that this year. I don't know if it's going to be on the same scale.
• 28:48
  I think especially on January 6th of this year, there will be some protections to make sure that
• 28:55
  something like that does not happen, but I do think that there will be a little bit of chaos
• 29:00
  in some areas. I think there's just going to be some very high emotions. I think on social media,
• 29:06
  we're going to see a lot of like arguing and upsets, and I know I just think it's going to be
• 29:12
  very, very intense, and I think either way, it's not going to be perfect. I think people will
• 29:20
  be very upset no matter who wins, but I hope that we can learn from last year and put some
• 29:26
  better protections in place for those very important days, make sure like all the important
• 29:31
  people in the election are protected when the results are announced for a little bit after,
• 29:36
  and then especially again on January 6th. What do you think, Elle?
• 29:40
  Yeah, I'm actually going to ask you a question. So we've obviously seen upwards of two assassination
• 29:48
  attempts on former President Trump. Do you think we will see another one? Do you think it depends
• 29:56
  on if he wins or not? Do you think there's a chance that something could happen on election day?
• 30:03
  Do you think that Kamala could receive a threat at her life, something like that?
• 30:09
  I guess my question is, do you think it will get that intense, that lethal, or do you think it'll
• 30:15
  be a little more, not light-hearted, light-spirited, but less aggressive in the sense of setting
• 30:22
  something on fire, kind of things we saw during the BLM protests?
• 30:27
  Yeah, I think that's a really great question. I'm sure it's something that all the security guards
• 30:36
  are taking into account, but I think that all of the scenarios you mentioned with like assassination
• 30:44
  attempts both on the day of or after the election and depending on who wins for both candidates are
• 30:50
  very possible. I think that the security teams have learned a lot from this summer of violence
• 31:00
  against former President Trump, and I think that they're going to try very hard to protect the
• 31:06
  candidates, but I definitely think it's a real possibility, especially if, especially I think for
• 31:12
  me it would be after they announce the election. I think that there's a chance that it could get
• 31:18
  heated, so I definitely think that you're right, Elda, that definitely seems like a possibility.
• 31:32
  All right, and that'll wrap up Project 2028, and that'll be kind of it for today. Make sure to vote,
• 31:39
  and I'm going to pass it over to Luciana to have a little speech about the social media.
• 31:44
  Yeah, just thank you so much for listening to this special edition episode. These are some of the most
• 31:49
  important episodes because they are coming out at a time when they are most important, right after
• 31:55
  either something big is about to happen or after it's already happened. Okay, and if you enjoyed
• 32:02
  this episode, our Instagram is at project2028.podcast. Please follow us, like our stuff,
• 32:10
  get informed about new updates, new episodes, anything important going on in the world. If you
• 32:16
  didn't like this episode, we're not on Instagram, and also if you have feedback, if you have topics
• 32:22
  you'd like to hear discussed, if you have questions for us, whatever it may be, anything you want to
• 32:26
  ask your hosts, please, please, please email us at project2028.pod at gmail.com. Thank you so,
• 32:35
  so much. Please go out and vote and have an amazing evening. Wait, before you go, I just
• 32:41
  wanted to tell you that this is the last episode of this season, and the new season will be kicking
• 32:47
  off starting with election results and everything to know about who will be the next president of
• 32:52
  the United States.