Latest / Pod Save America / Black Voters’ Views on Biden

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Black Voters’ Views on Biden · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Tommy Vitor.
0:21
Speaker 2: I'm Terrence Woodbury.
0:23
Speaker 1: We are very excited to have Terrence with us today.
0:25
Speaker 1: He's a Democratic strategist, pollster, does million-in-one focus groups, the
0:30
Speaker 1: founder of Hit Strategies, and he is someone who has
0:33
Speaker 1: a deep understanding of the 2024 electorate and what it
0:37
Speaker 1: will take for Biden to win, how we can reach
0:39
Speaker 1: these voters. So it's so great to have you.
0:41
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Glad to be here.
0:43
Speaker 1: We got a great show today. So we're going to
0:46
Speaker 1: talk about how Donald Trump just cannot stop dozing off
0:49
Speaker 1: during his criminal case in New York City. Meanwhile, sleepy
0:52
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is barnstorming Pennsylvania and selling his new economic strategy,
0:56
Speaker 1: which is taxing the rich. feels familiar. We're also going
0:59
Speaker 1: to dig into some recent polling, whether the industry itself
1:02
Speaker 1: is broken, what the impact of third party candidates like
1:05
Speaker 1: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West might be, and
1:08
Speaker 1: why President Biden seems to be struggling with young voters
1:11
Speaker 1: and voters of color and what he can do to
1:13
Speaker 1: fix it. So we have like six episodes to do.
1:15
Speaker 2: Let's do it. We've got time.
1:17
Speaker 1: Okay. We have the studio until 8 p.m. So it's
1:19
Speaker 1: 11 a.m. now. Real quick, just a selfish plug for me, Terrence.
1:22
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Speaker 1: We'd appreciate it. Again, that's vote.webbiawards.com. All right. Let's start
1:57
Speaker 1: with some of the highlights from Trump's time in court
2:00
Speaker 1: this week. Judge Merchan swore in seven jurors on Tuesday
2:05
Speaker 1: before adjourning until Thursday morning. It's an interesting kind of
2:08
Speaker 1: eclectic group. The jury foreperson lives in West Harlem. He's
2:11
Speaker 1: originally from Ireland. He says his media diet includes the
2:15
Speaker 1: New York Times and the Daily Mail, which is weird.
2:18
Speaker 1: He likes to watch Fox News and MSNBC. So I
2:21
Speaker 1: bet a lot of Our very probably polarized audience hears
2:24
Speaker 1: this and says, this guy doesn't exist in the real world.
2:26
Speaker 1: He's lying. You listen to real people all the time
2:29
Speaker 1: in focus groups. Did this media diet surprise you?
2:32
Speaker 3: This doesn't surprise me. People that do not consume politics
2:38
Speaker 3: endlessly the way many of us do, they just don't
2:40
Speaker 3: live on these partisan ideological lines the way we do.
2:45
Speaker 3: Many times they're not making decisions based on hardened ideological
2:48
Speaker 3: positions or I heard someone compare it to like, you know,
2:53
Speaker 3: if you don't watch hockey and you're picking an MVP,
2:56
Speaker 3: a most viable player in hockey, you're picking it based
3:00
Speaker 3: on factors that an actual hockey fan would not consider important.
3:04
Speaker 2: Like, I like their name. They sound familiar. You know,
3:07
Speaker 2: I like their mascot. You know what I mean?
3:09
Speaker 3: And that's a lot of what's happening with some of
3:11
Speaker 3: the less engaged folks. And so how are they going
3:16
Speaker 3: to find an impartial jury in Manhattan? They find guys
3:18
Speaker 3: like this that are you know, consuming MSNBC, Fox News,
3:23
Speaker 3: and Daily Beast.
3:24
Speaker 1: Right, right. I love there's a write-up by Just Security.
3:27
Speaker 1: There was one juror posted a lock him up meme
3:31
Speaker 1: on Facebook. He got excused. There's another who posted an
3:34
Speaker 1: AI video of Trump calling himself a dumb fuck. They
3:37
Speaker 1: got rid of that guy too. One juror called himself
3:39
Speaker 1: the repost king. So interesting, fun to watch all this.
3:42
Speaker 1: So we're all trying to figure out how this trial
3:44
Speaker 1: may or may not impact the electorate views of Trump.
3:47
Speaker 1: A new poll from AP NORC Center for Public Affairs
3:50
Speaker 1: Research shows that Americans are less convinced of Trump's guilt
3:53
Speaker 1: in this first criminal trial, the hush money trial, compared
3:56
Speaker 1: to the other cases. So while only one third of U.S.
3:59
Speaker 1: adults believe Trump committed a crime in the hush money case,
4:03
Speaker 1: almost half think he's guilty in the other three cases. However,
4:07
Speaker 1: half of Americans would see Trump as unfit for the
4:09
Speaker 1: White House if he is convicted of falsifying business records
4:13
Speaker 1: related to this hush money case. So the verdict really
4:15
Speaker 1: matters is the point here. Has anything in the polling
4:18
Speaker 1: or focus groups jumped out at you about how voters
4:21
Speaker 1: feel about this trial and what they might need to
4:24
Speaker 1: hear during it to influence their opinion when they actually vote?
4:28
Speaker 2: Well, I am.
4:28
Speaker 3: Relieved to hear that half of America would see these
4:31
Speaker 3: convictions as making Donald Trump unfit.
4:34
Speaker 2: I'm concerned more about the other half.
4:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish that was higher.
4:37
Speaker 2: Right, that's right.
4:39
Speaker 3: Look, I have seen Donald Trump... suggest that this is
4:45
Speaker 3: going to endear him to some voters, specifically to black
4:49
Speaker 3: voters that see him as a victim or being unjustly
4:53
Speaker 3: targeted by the criminal justice system. I have not seen
4:56
Speaker 3: any indication of that in any of our focus groups
4:57
Speaker 3: or polling. But what could benefit him, you know, when
5:01
Speaker 3: we're talking to some of these cynical voters that believe
5:04
Speaker 3: that the system is the.
5:05
Speaker 2: Problem, this... appears to be a distraction.
5:11
Speaker 3: It appears to be they want us focused on these
5:14
Speaker 3: meaningless crimes so that we're not focused on what really matters.
5:17
Speaker 2: What really matters, insert the blank, depending on who I'm
5:19
Speaker 2: talking to.
5:20
Speaker 3: And so there is some of that, that just endless
5:23
Speaker 3: coverage of Donald Trump and hush money allegations from years
5:28
Speaker 3: ago seem like a distraction from what people would rather
5:31
Speaker 3: be talking about. And so in that case, it does
5:35
Speaker 3: kind of validate the system is broken message and does...
5:38
Speaker 3: could appeal to some voters that believe that.
5:40
Speaker 1: He's also hammering like the system is rigged. This is
5:43
Speaker 1: a Biden prosecution. This is my opponents coming after me.
5:46
Speaker 1: Do you think, is your sense that people are receptive
5:49
Speaker 1: to that kind of messaging?
5:51
Speaker 2: No.
5:53
Speaker 3: The people that are receptive to Trump as a victim
5:57
Speaker 3: and Biden as a bully are the half of people
6:00
Speaker 3: that are already that are already kind of in bed
6:03
Speaker 3: with Trump. What concerns me about this 50%, this half
6:07
Speaker 3: of folks that don't think that this makes him unfit,
6:10
Speaker 3: is that he doesn't need 50% to win. He doesn't
6:14
Speaker 3: need half of America to vote for him to win.
6:17
Speaker 1: He needs 46%, 47%.
6:17
Speaker 3: And I think that he's well within those margins of
6:19
Speaker 3: folks that will discredit all of these trials. Now, I
6:22
Speaker 3: do think that the subsequent trials are going to have
6:24
Speaker 3: a different kind of impact, and we see that in
6:26
Speaker 3: the polling as well.
6:27
Speaker 4: Yeah.
6:28
Speaker 1: I was reading about this polling experiment that YouGov did.
6:31
Speaker 1: So in 2018, they did a survey and they asked everybody,
6:34
Speaker 1: the respondents, if it would be a crime for a
6:36
Speaker 1: candidate to pay someone to remain silent about an issue
6:39
Speaker 1: that might impact the election. Clearly, the context at the
6:42
Speaker 1: time was the hush money case. 56% of respondents said, yeah,
6:46
Speaker 1: that'd be a crime. 2023 comes along. YouGov does another poll.
6:49
Speaker 1: They ask the same question over again. This time, more
6:51
Speaker 1: than 70% of Americans said it would be a crime,
6:54
Speaker 1: including 73% of Republicans. What changed? Well, the first time
6:59
Speaker 1: the context was obvious. The second time Republicans who answered
7:02
Speaker 1: didn't realize that they are basically being asked about Trump.
7:05
Speaker 1: I think you can hear that experiment and view it
7:08
Speaker 1: two ways. You can say, OK, that's hopeful. Voters know
7:11
Speaker 1: right and wrong when it's based on the facts and
7:13
Speaker 1: the merits. Or you can find it to be depressing
7:16
Speaker 1: and say, OK, political polarization is driving every opinion about everything.
7:20
Speaker 1: Do you have a reaction when you when you hear
7:22
Speaker 1: that experiment outlined?
7:24
Speaker 3: Definitely the latter, you know, that this is, it's just
7:28
Speaker 3: indicative of how both political polarization and the Trump indoctrination,
7:33
Speaker 3: that anything associated with Trump is changing how people even
7:36
Speaker 3: view the realities of the world. That's what's changing the
7:39
Speaker 3: dynamics of our conversation. You know, it's not based on
7:43
Speaker 3: a truth or a fact that we all believe. It's
7:45
Speaker 3: based on what you believe about Donald Trump.
7:47
Speaker 5: Right. So frustrating.
7:49
Speaker 1: Um, Trump, okay, so he's trying to own the narrative.
7:52
Speaker 1: His first campaign event since his trial started was a
7:55
Speaker 1: visit to a bodega in Harlem that had been the
7:57
Speaker 1: site of a fatal stabbing in 2022. Very subtle. He
8:01
Speaker 1: seems to have a two-part message strategy here. Part one,
8:04
Speaker 1: attack Democrats as soft on crime. He especially likes to
8:07
Speaker 1: talk about his new category of migrant crime where he's
8:10
Speaker 1: demagoguing immigration. Part two is he wants to go after
8:14
Speaker 1: Alvin Bragg for prosecuting him and not focusing on crime
8:18
Speaker 1: in the city, violent crime in particular. A couple of
8:20
Speaker 1: days ago, the Wall Street Journal had a big story
8:22
Speaker 1: about how homicides in American cities are falling at the
8:25
Speaker 1: fastest rate in decades to basically pre-pandemic levels. I'm wondering
8:30
Speaker 1: how salient you think the crime message is with the
8:34
Speaker 1: general electorate and whether the fact that things are getting
8:37
Speaker 1: better is breaking through.
8:40
Speaker 3: You know, I missed this bodega visit, maybe because it
8:44
Speaker 3: was lost in the Chick-fil-A visit, but I am glad
8:46
Speaker 3: that he's making his way through, you know, um, local establishments.
8:51
Speaker 1: Burger King's next. Right, exactly.
8:52
Speaker 3: I hope he bought a few chopped cheeses at the
8:55
Speaker 3: bodega since he bought a few milkshakes at Chick-fil-A. The
8:59
Speaker 3: challenge with crime, look, we all know this. Perceptions of
9:03
Speaker 3: crime are very different than people's experiences of crime. Overwhelmingly, people,
9:08
Speaker 3: I think over 80% of people say they haven't experienced
9:10
Speaker 3: or witnessed crime, but still feel like it's getting worse.
9:15
Speaker 3: What we have found when it comes to issues of
9:18
Speaker 3: crime is that Democrats do much better on issues of
9:21
Speaker 3: public safety than we do on crime. It allows us
9:23
Speaker 3: to broaden the conversation to things that Democrats actually do
9:27
Speaker 3: thrive on, like preventing the root causes of crime, like
9:32
Speaker 3: leaning into addiction counseling, violence prevention, and alternative responses. And
9:39
Speaker 3: so I think that Democrats do have a winning message here.
9:42
Speaker 3: I think we have to lean into that message and
9:44
Speaker 3: begin to broaden the conversation. And of course, What we've
9:48
Speaker 3: seen the president do effectively, including in previous State of
9:51
Speaker 3: the Union addresses, is including in crime gun violence, which
9:54
Speaker 3: is a top issue of voters of color and of
9:58
Speaker 3: young voters and where Democrats have an overwhelming advantage on
10:02
Speaker 3: how we would handle guns.
10:03
Speaker 1: I think that's a really important point. We sometimes talk
10:05
Speaker 1: about crime in terms of just like sentencing or how
10:08
Speaker 1: many police on the streets. But yeah, obviously getting gun control,
10:12
Speaker 1: getting guns off our streets would help reduce violent crime.
10:15
Speaker 1: So while Trump's, again, snoozing away in court, Biden was
10:18
Speaker 1: in his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, to kick off his
10:21
Speaker 1: three-day campaign swing through Pennsylvania to talk about taxes and
10:24
Speaker 1: the economy. The swing marks the eighth time the Biden-Harris
10:27
Speaker 1: campaign has made it to Pennsylvania this year. Biden used
10:30
Speaker 1: his hometown to frame the election as a race between Trump,
10:33
Speaker 1: who's this out-of-touch Mar-a-Lago billionaire, and himself, Scranton Joe. Framing
10:38
Speaker 1: is very similar to anyone who paid attention in 2020
10:40
Speaker 1: to that race. During his speech, Biden said he wanted
10:44
Speaker 1: to keep a majority of the tax breaks that Trump
10:46
Speaker 1: had signed into law in 2017 in place in order
10:49
Speaker 1: to keep his promise not to raise taxes on people
10:51
Speaker 1: earning less than $ 400, 000. But he wants to raise $ 4. 9
10:55
Speaker 1: trillion in revenue over the next 10 years and place
10:58
Speaker 1: higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. He also got
11:01
Speaker 1: a few jokes off on stage. Let's listen.
11:03
Speaker 6: You know, I've already been delivering real results in a
11:06
Speaker 6: fiscally responsible way. But I know not everyone's feeling it.
11:11
Speaker 6: Just the other day, a defeated looking guy came up
11:13
Speaker 6: to me and asked if I could help. He was
11:17
Speaker 6: drowning in debt.
11:19
Speaker 2: I said, I'm sorry, Donald, but I can't help you.
11:25
Speaker 1: I like that petty shit. Keep it up. So Terrence,
11:28
Speaker 1: the numbers on the economy have been stubbornly bad for Biden.
11:31
Speaker 1: According to a recent CBS poll, 65% of voters rate
11:35
Speaker 1: the economy is good under the Trump presidency as compared
11:38
Speaker 1: to 38% who say it's good under Biden's presidency. What
11:41
Speaker 1: do you think explains Trump's strength there?
11:45
Speaker 2: So first, look, I also like that petty shit.
11:47
Speaker 3: I think that that that Joe Biden being able to
11:50
Speaker 3: get off some of these jabs does a couple of things. One,
11:52
Speaker 3: it continues to refute this idea that he's, you know,
11:57
Speaker 3: that he's losing his marbles. It shows that he's witty.
12:00
Speaker 2: He's quick. He's still he could swing. He could swing
12:02
Speaker 2: him as much as he could take him.
12:03
Speaker 3: But the other thing is that Trump can't help but
12:06
Speaker 3: to respond to this shit.
12:08
Speaker 2: Always.
12:08
Speaker 1: Takes the bait every time.
12:09
Speaker 3: That's exactly right. Leave the bait for him. Get him
12:11
Speaker 3: off the message. Keep him responding. Look, economy is the
12:16
Speaker 3: number one issue of every election cycle. But what we
12:19
Speaker 3: have seen is that what voters are saying when they
12:22
Speaker 3: choose economy as their top issue is different each time.
12:25
Speaker 3: In 2008, you would remember when they were saying economy,
12:29
Speaker 3: this is at the height.
12:30
Speaker 2: Of the recession.
12:31
Speaker 3: They were talking about jobs and foreclosure. In 2012, during
12:36
Speaker 3: the height of the Tea Party movement, they were talking
12:38
Speaker 3: about taxes and spending. Well, now when voters are saying economy,
12:41
Speaker 3: and once again, it is the number one issue across demographics,
12:44
Speaker 3: across geographics, but what they are really talking about is
12:48
Speaker 3: cost and price. Overwhelmingly, the economic anxiety that voters are
12:53
Speaker 3: expressing is about the cost of things, cost of healthcare,
12:57
Speaker 3: cost of education, cost of food, cost of gas. I
12:59
Speaker 3: had someone in focus groups talk to me about after
13:02
Speaker 3: her father died, his social security and VA benefits were
13:04
Speaker 3: taxed so much that the cost of dying is too
13:07
Speaker 3: damn high. And so, you know, we have, this is
13:12
Speaker 3: exactly why we are seeing indicators like lowest unemployment rate,
13:15
Speaker 3: record job creation. None of these things are changing them
13:18
Speaker 3: or moving the needle because the challenge is cost. I
13:22
Speaker 3: think that the Biden-Harris administration has a good track record
13:25
Speaker 3: on how they, on the efforts they're doing to reduce cost.
13:29
Speaker 3: things like reducing late fees from $ 33 to $ 8, reducing
13:33
Speaker 3: insulin costs, capping the cost of insulin, capping the cost
13:36
Speaker 3: of prescription drugs, and increasing Pell Grants to reduce the
13:41
Speaker 3: cost of education. But we have to continue to make
13:44
Speaker 3: the economic conversation a cost about cost and price and
13:48
Speaker 3: not just a conversation about jobs and wages.
13:50
Speaker 1: That's such a good point because people assume economy means
13:54
Speaker 1: the same thing to everybody. And no, of course it doesn't.
13:57
Speaker 1: It means different things at different points of time and
13:58
Speaker 1: different people. And you're right. I mean, some of the
14:00
Speaker 1: things you just laid out there that Biden has done
14:02
Speaker 1: for seniors in particular are like discreet and easy to describe,
14:07
Speaker 1: like capping the price of insulin. You feel that in
14:09
Speaker 1: your life. You see that in your pocketbook at the
14:11
Speaker 1: end of the month when you're paying bills. It's really
14:14
Speaker 1: well said. Over the years, a lot of Democrats have
14:18
Speaker 1: been attacked for being tax and spend liberals. We've lost elections.
14:22
Speaker 1: Al Gore was accused of class warfare, right? And it
14:24
Speaker 1: sort of scared him off in an economic message at times.
14:27
Speaker 1: Biden is obviously leaning into this fight. He's talking about
14:30
Speaker 1: taxing billionaires more. Do you think that's smart and popular
14:33
Speaker 1: in this case?
14:35
Speaker 2: Yes, always, always.
14:36
Speaker 3: I think you made the joke at the top of
14:38
Speaker 3: the episode that taxing the rich is the latest and
14:42
Speaker 3: greatest new policy. I mean, this has been popular for
14:44
Speaker 3: a very long time. I think this is a part
14:47
Speaker 3: of what propelled Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in previous primaries.
14:52
Speaker 3: It is obviously very, very popular in the Democratic base.
14:57
Speaker 3: It is one that we should continue to lean into.
14:58
Speaker 3: I don't think that that is people's top priority unless
15:01
Speaker 3: we can connect it to how does taxing billionaires help
15:05
Speaker 3: make their lives better, help pay for the things that
15:08
Speaker 3: they need, help pay for the services that they need,
15:10
Speaker 3: help fix the roads.
15:12
Speaker 2: In their communities.
15:13
Speaker 1: There's a next....
15:16
Speaker 3: Iteration of that conversation that, yes, we tax the billionaires,
15:19
Speaker 3: but to do what?
15:20
Speaker 1: Right. That's a really good point. And also the context,
15:22
Speaker 1: I think, is Trump is going to these fundraising events
15:26
Speaker 1: at Mar-a-Lago and other places in Palm Beach, and he's
15:28
Speaker 1: raising money. He's raising like $ 900, 000 checks from a whole
15:32
Speaker 1: bunch of billionaires to fund his campaign. And clearly Biden
15:34
Speaker 1: is saying he's going to wake up in the morning
15:36
Speaker 1: thinking about those people who are funding his campaign and
15:39
Speaker 1: do favors for them. I'm focused on you. All right,
15:41
Speaker 1: so let's geek out on some polling for a bit.
15:43
Speaker 1: We talk a lot on the show about the accuracy
15:46
Speaker 1: of polling, what we can and cannot learn from polls.
15:49
Speaker 1: According to the Real Clear Politics average, Biden and Trump
15:52
Speaker 1: are neck and neck, with Biden polling at 45.4% and
15:56
Speaker 1: Trump polling at 45.6%. Trump is beating Biden by 0.2%
16:00
Speaker 1: in that average. Biden's standing seems to have improved on
16:05
Speaker 1: average since the State of the Union. Do you think
16:07
Speaker 1: that's accurate? And do you have any sense of why
16:10
Speaker 1: he's moving the numbers?
16:12
Speaker 2: I do think that's accurate. This is my favorite segment.
16:17
Speaker 3: We joke that after every election, we have to defend
16:20
Speaker 3: the credibility of this entire industry.
16:23
Speaker 2: Why does polling even exist?
16:24
Speaker 1: People get real mad. They remember that one poll that
16:26
Speaker 1: was wrong and they get big mad about it.
16:28
Speaker 2: That's right. That's right.
16:29
Speaker 3: Look, we have seen this uptick in Biden's support since
16:33
Speaker 3: the State of the Union. I think it is one
16:37
Speaker 3: thing that he did in the State of the Union
16:39
Speaker 3: was to undermine his greatest his greatest challenge. And that is,
16:43
Speaker 3: is he up to the job, right? Does he have
16:45
Speaker 3: the stamina? Does he have the strength? Does he have the, uh,
16:48
Speaker 3: the longevity to do the job? Um, and I think
16:50
Speaker 3: he addressed a lot of that, especially in the, um,
16:53
Speaker 3: in the, the sparring back and forth with the Republicans.
16:56
Speaker 2: That's right. That's right. They laid the bait and he
16:58
Speaker 2: didn't fall into the trap. He, he, he, he walked
17:00
Speaker 2: them into it.
17:01
Speaker 3: And so, um, I think that's a lot of what's
17:03
Speaker 3: contributing to the uptick in Biden's numbers. I would also
17:05
Speaker 3: argue that being ahead 0.2% means that he's not ahead.
17:10
Speaker 2: Right.
17:10
Speaker 1: We're going to lose that election.
17:11
Speaker 3: That is a tie. And that's a part of the
17:14
Speaker 3: challenge that we're seeing in polling. We're going to talk
17:15
Speaker 3: about what is polling here to do better. But that's
17:17
Speaker 3: a part of the challenge that we're seeing in polling is.
17:19
Speaker 2: The way it's being reported. You know, a change in
17:22
Speaker 2: one percent in either direction is a trend.
17:25
Speaker 1: Right.
17:25
Speaker 3: Right.
17:25
Speaker 2: But it's not indicative of who's going to win.
17:27
Speaker 1: Yeah. So if there's a listener out there who thinks
17:29
Speaker 1: polling is broken, I don't trust it. I don't know
17:31
Speaker 1: anyone's been polled. I've never been polled. What do you
17:34
Speaker 1: say to them? What are the real challenges for pollsters
17:37
Speaker 1: getting accurate data in the year of our Lord, 2024?
17:40
Speaker 3: Well, look, one of the biggest challenges right now is
17:43
Speaker 3: being able to reach the folks whose opinions we're measuring.
17:49
Speaker 3: At Hit Strategies, we've moved away from simply doing what
17:52
Speaker 3: used to be the gold standard of phone polling. We're
17:55
Speaker 3: doing a lot more online and text polling. That's because
17:57
Speaker 3: we prioritize the opinions of young people and people of color.
18:00
Speaker 2: That may not sit on the phone for 15 minutes.
18:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't have a landline.
18:04
Speaker 2: On a landline. That's exactly right.
18:06
Speaker 3: I've actually never had a landline in my life, and
18:07
Speaker 3: I think that's true of most people in my generation.
18:09
Speaker 1: I had one. That hurts. I did not have one.
18:12
Speaker 1: I definitely had one.
18:13
Speaker 3: So, I mean, that's something that we've got to do better.
18:14
Speaker 3: The other thing that we have to do better are
18:16
Speaker 3: sample sizes. Anytime I see a poll that includes 100
18:21
Speaker 3: black people, well, that means that if 10 or 20
18:24
Speaker 3: of them.
18:24
Speaker 2: Are a bit weird, then... your poll is off by
18:28
Speaker 2: 10 or 20 points. That's a lot. That's a lot.
18:30
Speaker 2: That's huge. That's exactly right.
18:33
Speaker 3: We don't do any poll of black voters that's less
18:35
Speaker 3: than 400 to correct for some of that, to mute
18:38
Speaker 3: some of that noise that can come from just 10
18:40
Speaker 3: or 20 people being weird.
18:54
Speaker 1: The three candidates that have a highest chance of swaying
18:56
Speaker 1: the election are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and
18:59
Speaker 1: Jill Stein from the Green Party. Kennedy is the most
19:02
Speaker 1: well-financed third-party candidate in history. He has enough signatures to
19:06
Speaker 1: be on the ballot in key states already, like Nevada,
19:09
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan. We were talking before we
19:12
Speaker 1: started recording, it seems like he'll probably get on every
19:15
Speaker 1: ballot by the end. Cornel West just announced his running mate.
19:19
Speaker 1: The Green Party is already on the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona.
19:22
Speaker 1: will probably get on the ballot in all of the
19:24
Speaker 1: swing states. So if you're the Biden campaign, which third
19:28
Speaker 1: party challenger worries you the most? And do you think
19:32
Speaker 1: any of them have a shot of beating Ross Perot's
19:36
Speaker 1: aggregate vote record where he got 8 million votes in 96?
19:39
Speaker 3: So what will concern me the most, if I was
19:43
Speaker 3: on the Biden campaign, what concerns me the most is
19:45
Speaker 3: not any of the individual candidates, it's the collection of
19:47
Speaker 3: all of them, Donald Trump did not get a majority
19:51
Speaker 3: of votes in 2016. He won with 46%. In 2020,
19:57
Speaker 3: he got 47%. In 2024, he does not seem to
20:01
Speaker 3: be making any effort to get to a majority, to
20:03
Speaker 3: reach across the aisle, to attract new voters. He is
20:06
Speaker 3: expecting this to be a base election. He's expecting his
20:08
Speaker 3: base to do better. then Biden's basing a part of
20:11
Speaker 3: how they're doing that is by juicing, uh, juicing these,
20:14
Speaker 3: these third party candidates, namely Kennedy. Look right now, Kennedy is, um, surging.
20:20
Speaker 2: In the polls.
20:21
Speaker 3: Uh, he's in, in double digits in some of the
20:23
Speaker 3: polls that we've seen. Kennedy is also going to be
20:24
Speaker 3: the best resource and will likely be on all 50 ballots.
20:28
Speaker 3: That does make him the greatest threat, um, of the three,
20:32
Speaker 3: but the collection of the three, the ability of, of, um,
20:36
Speaker 3: Joe Stein, Cornel West, and Kennedy together to get more
20:39
Speaker 3: than 5% or 6% of the vote, well, that's a
20:43
Speaker 3: threat that I know the Biden campaign and the DNC
20:46
Speaker 3: are leaning into. That said, Cornel West is not registering
20:51
Speaker 3: nearly as much in a lot of these polls. I
20:53
Speaker 3: think that's because he has a much lower name ID.
20:55
Speaker 3: But Cornel West, as voters get to know him, especially
20:59
Speaker 3: the voters, these double haters, I want to talk a
21:01
Speaker 3: little bit more about the double haters, this new term
21:03
Speaker 3: of voters that doesn't like Biden or Trump. Well, in fact,
21:08
Speaker 3: I think that these double haters are a little bit
21:09
Speaker 3: broader than that. They are just cynics that don't like Democrats, Republicans.
21:13
Speaker 3: They don't like politicians. They don't like vaccines. These are
21:16
Speaker 3: all the same folks. The double hater is the same
21:18
Speaker 3: as the vaccine hesitant. They don't like 5G.
21:21
Speaker 2: They don't trust any of this shit.
21:23
Speaker 3: Well, for that voter, who doesn't know Cornel West yet,
21:28
Speaker 3: he is going to speak a lot of their language.
21:31
Speaker 3: He's going to... criticize Joe Biden's position in Palestine. He's
21:38
Speaker 3: going to criticize the two-party system. He's going to adopt
21:42
Speaker 3: a lot of the Bernie Sanders populism. And this is
21:46
Speaker 3: how a voter can go from voting for Bernie Sanders
21:50
Speaker 3: in 2016 to voting for Donald Trump in 2016, is
21:53
Speaker 3: because they were voting against the system. And as soon
21:56
Speaker 3: as Cornel West begins to raise, if he is able
21:59
Speaker 3: to raise his name ID to get in front of
22:01
Speaker 3: these candidates, to get on college campuses where.
22:04
Speaker 2: He really knows his way around quite a bit. Yeah,
22:07
Speaker 2: he does.
22:08
Speaker 3: Then I do think that he can pose a different
22:10
Speaker 3: kind of threat. And I also think it's a little
22:12
Speaker 3: bit harder to disqualify him on some of his positions
22:15
Speaker 3: as it is with some of RFK's crazy shit.
22:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he has real political talent and he's a
22:20
Speaker 1: household name in a lot of households and someone who's
22:22
Speaker 1: been around a while and has a track record and
22:24
Speaker 1: is a compelling speaker. So yeah, I could see Cornel
22:27
Speaker 1: West being compelling. I mean, imagine Jill Stein- will draw
22:31
Speaker 1: from a lot of people who are primarily, I mean,
22:32
Speaker 1: she's a Green Party candidate, so primarily focused on climate
22:35
Speaker 1: change in particular. I think you're right. Cornel West will
22:37
Speaker 1: get a lot of double haters. Bobby Kennedy Jr. will
22:40
Speaker 1: probably get some double haters too, or just the kind of,
22:44
Speaker 1: I hate everybody, burn it down, burn down the system folks.
22:48
Speaker 1: And I don't know that people, I mean, he's got
22:50
Speaker 1: a famous name, but I don't know that people know
22:53
Speaker 1: much of anything about him. It seems like his voters
22:56
Speaker 1: are extremely low information at this point, right?
23:00
Speaker 3: I mean, that is often right of many third party voters, right?
23:04
Speaker 3: We talked about how a non-hockey fan is going to
23:07
Speaker 3: pick an MVP of the Hockey League, right? A lot
23:10
Speaker 3: of non-political fans, folks that aren't consuming this stuff every day,
23:14
Speaker 3: are making decisions not based on partisan and ideological factors.
23:19
Speaker 2: And if they don't like either of the... Look.
23:23
Speaker 3: For a lot of these cynics, the only thing less
23:24
Speaker 3: popular than Joe Biden or Donald Trump is the rematch
23:27
Speaker 3: of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And a part of
23:29
Speaker 3: why that's so unpopular is because it's indicative of a
23:31
Speaker 3: system that's broken. This all comes down to the broad
23:36
Speaker 3: narrative that the system doesn't work for people like them.
23:39
Speaker 3: And I think Kennedy, all of them, Kennedy, Stein, and
23:43
Speaker 3: West will all represent options for folks that are shopping.
23:46
Speaker 3: I don't think that many of them have.
23:52
Speaker 3: Count it, Joe Biden out. I don't think that they
23:55
Speaker 3: are never Biden voters, right? They're just shopping for a
23:58
Speaker 3: better alternative. And we have to show them that the
24:00
Speaker 3: best alternative is Joe Biden, as opposed to showing them
24:03
Speaker 3: what's wrong with some of the other alternatives that they're considering.
24:06
Speaker 1: Yeah. Ben Rose and I talked about this this week
24:09
Speaker 1: as well. I don't think voters realize how hawkish Robert F.
24:13
Speaker 1: Kennedy Jr. is on Israel in particular. I was going
24:16
Speaker 1: through some of the things he said When he's talked
24:19
Speaker 1: about the war, he says that Israel, quote, does not
24:21
Speaker 1: have any choice except to eradicate Hamas. And back in December,
24:25
Speaker 1: he denied that there was a siege on the civilian
24:27
Speaker 1: population in Gaza, even though the Israeli government had announced it.
24:30
Speaker 1: He said, quote, the Palestinian people are arguably the most
24:34
Speaker 1: pampered people by international aid organizations in the history of
24:37
Speaker 1: the world. That certainly cuts against my understanding of the
24:40
Speaker 1: treatment of the Palestinian people, especially since there was a
24:43
Speaker 1: blockade on Gaza put in place in what, 2006, 2007? Yeah.
24:46
Speaker 1: He opposes even a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. More broadly speaking,
24:51
Speaker 1: in 2023, he said he opposed Biden getting back into
24:54
Speaker 1: the Iran nuclear agreement and he kind of regurgitates Trump's
24:56
Speaker 1: lies about it. So, you know, if you have progressive friends,
24:59
Speaker 1: if you have leftist friends who are taking a look
25:01
Speaker 1: at Bobby Kennedy Jr. and they feel like he is
25:04
Speaker 1: saying the things they want to hear from sort of
25:07
Speaker 1: a leftist or more progressive candidate, maybe walk him, that person,
25:10
Speaker 1: through Kennedy's record on Gaza because I don't think they're
25:14
Speaker 1: going to like what they see.
25:15
Speaker 3: I think that's exactly right. Look, I think broadly, Democrats
25:20
Speaker 3: and progressives have to do a better job of messaging
25:23
Speaker 3: the Israel-Palestine conflict. A part of that is talking about
25:27
Speaker 3: what Democrats are doing better to avoid some of the
25:33
Speaker 3: violence and shit, carnage that's happening in Gaza.
25:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, civilian casualties.
25:40
Speaker 3: Efforts like opposing Israel's retaliation to Iran, opposing Israel's invasion
25:46
Speaker 3: of Rafah, putting sanctions on people that commit violence in
25:51
Speaker 3: the West Bank, that we are taking steps to reduce
25:55
Speaker 3: the violence. And the other part of that message is
25:58
Speaker 3: how much worse the alternatives are, how much worse it
26:01
Speaker 3: is for Donald Trump, who moved the American embassy to Jerusalem,
26:05
Speaker 3: effectively ending the two-state solution, and especially how much worse
26:09
Speaker 3: RFK would be. I think we do have to continue
26:12
Speaker 3: to make that contrast. Again, the contrast has to include
26:15
Speaker 3: what we're doing better and how much worse the alternatives are.
26:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's exactly right. There's a real policy
26:21
Speaker 1: problem that we got to fix. We got to get
26:22
Speaker 1: to a ceasefire, get the hostages released, got to end
26:25
Speaker 1: the war as soon as possible, President Biden does, but
26:27
Speaker 1: also tell a story about what Trump did while he
26:29
Speaker 1: was in office and all the political favors he did
26:31
Speaker 1: for Bibi Netanyahu, because you're right, he took a number
26:34
Speaker 1: of steps that made a two-state solution less likely during
26:37
Speaker 1: his four years in office. So let's talk about what
26:39
Speaker 1: Biden will need to do to win back young voters
26:42
Speaker 1: and voters of color. Both groups showed up for him
26:45
Speaker 1: in record-breaking numbers in 2020 and helped him win in
26:48
Speaker 1: key battleground states. But that support seems to have softened
26:52
Speaker 1: a bit. More black male voters say they plan to
26:55
Speaker 1: vote for Trump this year than did in 2020. According
26:58
Speaker 1: to the Wall Street Journal, they did a poll of
27:01
Speaker 1: seven swing states. 30% of black men said they would
27:04
Speaker 1: vote for Trump compared to 12% who did in 2020. So, Terrence,
27:08
Speaker 1: you guys do your own research. It's strategies and not
27:11
Speaker 1: in the Joe Rogan way, but like you actually do
27:14
Speaker 1: real research. You have found that the growing generation gap
27:17
Speaker 1: between black voters is something that's not being focused on enough.
27:21
Speaker 1: So 15 percent of black voters under 50 identify as Republican,
27:24
Speaker 1: while two percent of black voters over 50 identify as Republicans.
27:28
Speaker 1: So let's let's talk about voters of color first. There
27:31
Speaker 1: seems to be this consistent trend of black and Hispanic
27:34
Speaker 1: voters leaving the Democratic Party, especially men. Is that narrative accurate?
27:38
Speaker 1: And if so, why do you think it's happening?
27:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's two things happening here, right? There's a
27:44
Speaker 3: gender gap between women voters of color and men voters
27:48
Speaker 3: of color that has gotten a lot of attention. You know,
27:50
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of attention about men of color.
27:52
Speaker 3: There has been erosion there. And this erosion is not
27:56
Speaker 3: just a Biden effect. This has been an erosion from
28:01
Speaker 3: Democrats more broadly.
28:02
Speaker 2: It's happening up and down the ballot.
28:03
Speaker 3: It has been happening since Barack Obama exit the political
28:07
Speaker 3: stage ever since 2012. We have seen 2% to 4%
28:12
Speaker 3: more men of color voting, supporting Republicans in every single election. Midterms,
28:18
Speaker 3: down ballot, it is a gradual increase. But the other
28:22
Speaker 3: thing that you're right, hasn't gotten enough attention is the
28:25
Speaker 3: generation gap between older voters of color and younger voters
28:28
Speaker 3: of color. While the gender gap between men of color
28:31
Speaker 3: and women of color is closer to 4% or 5%,
28:33
Speaker 3: a notable gap that could contribute to some differences in outcomes,
28:38
Speaker 3: the generation gap between younger voters of color and older
28:41
Speaker 3: voters of color is more than 25%.
28:42
Speaker 2: Wow.
28:44
Speaker 3: That is where this erosion amongst young people, I think,
28:48
Speaker 3: is where the greatest threat is. And I do think
28:50
Speaker 3: we have a lot more work to do there before November.
28:53
Speaker 1: I know you guys took a look at the state
28:54
Speaker 1: of Georgia, especially the 2022 elections and black turnout there.
28:58
Speaker 1: What did you guys find in Georgia?
29:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, you know, what was so interesting in Georgia
29:03
Speaker 3: is that in 2020, we saw that David Perdue had
29:07
Speaker 3: gone from 7% of black men's votes to 17% of.
29:09
Speaker 2: Black men's votes.
29:10
Speaker 1: David Perdue did?
29:11
Speaker 2: David Perdue, right?
29:13
Speaker 3: In the same election, Tom Tillis in North Carolina went
29:15
Speaker 3: from 5% of black men's votes to 10% of black
29:18
Speaker 3: men's votes. And so we see this, not just a
29:22
Speaker 3: marginal increase, they're doubling their support amongst black men. But
29:28
Speaker 3: that didn't happen in 2022, namely because of Stacey Abrams' campaign,
29:31
Speaker 3: who saw, you know, Stacey runs a very data-driven campaign.
29:35
Speaker 3: She saw the impact of that gender gap from her
29:38
Speaker 3: previous campaign, and they affect closed it, that black men
29:41
Speaker 3: supported Stacey at almost the same level as black women,
29:44
Speaker 3: but that that gap amongst younger black voters persisted. And
29:48
Speaker 3: we see that across the South. I mentioned Tom Tillis
29:51
Speaker 3: in North Carolina, but we also saw in Florida in 2022. Look,
29:55
Speaker 3: I worked for Andrew Gillum in Florida in 2018, where
29:59
Speaker 3: we lost that election by less than one point. Four
30:03
Speaker 3: years later, when DeSantis won the same race by almost
30:06
Speaker 3: 20 points, I was very curious to see what is
30:09
Speaker 3: the erosion, what's happening there. Man, Miami-Dade, 45% of Miami-Dade
30:14
Speaker 3: voted for Ron DeSantis. 45%, almost half. That's our strongest
30:21
Speaker 3: stronghold of Florida, is Miami-Dade. And so what we're seeing
30:25
Speaker 3: is that it's not because DeSantis is switching, is flipping
30:28
Speaker 3: the votes. in Miami-Dade, it's because of a lot of
30:31
Speaker 3: the Andrew Gillum voters just stayed home. And so that
30:34
Speaker 3: is what is contributing to a lot of the increase
30:36
Speaker 3: that we're seeing Republicans get is erosion. It's not increasing
30:40
Speaker 3: their margin, it's eroding our margin. And the other thing
30:43
Speaker 3: that we're seeing more than anything, contributing to increase support
30:48
Speaker 3: from black voters towards Republicans is that they're spending money trying.
30:52
Speaker 3: They are, for the first time, Republicans are investing heavily
30:56
Speaker 3: in targeting men of color and young voters of color,
31:00
Speaker 3: and they are seeing a return on some of those investments.
31:03
Speaker 1: Man, that's worrisome because a lot of people thought that
31:06
Speaker 1: this appeal to black men might be a Trump-specific phenomenon,
31:09
Speaker 1: but clearly what you found is that it's not. So
31:12
Speaker 1: you guys did a focus group in 2023 of men
31:15
Speaker 1: of color who supported Biden in 2020. And now we're
31:19
Speaker 1: considering voting third party in 2024. Let's take a listen
31:22
Speaker 1: to a clip from that.
31:24
Speaker 5: The numbers, I'm not going based off the numbers. I'm
31:26
Speaker 5: going based off what I feel like that person is
31:29
Speaker 5: going to bring to the table. Even though I know
31:32
Speaker 5: the math, Donald Trump's probably going to win. I'm still
31:34
Speaker 5: going to vote for who I feel like would bring
31:36
Speaker 5: something to the table.
31:37
Speaker 4: Anyone else in Howard's position saying I would still vote
31:39
Speaker 4: third party over Joe Biden if that third party person
31:44
Speaker 4: aligned with my policy positions?
31:46
Speaker 2: Better than Joe Biden does.
31:47
Speaker 4: Anyone else that would do that? Given the calculus we
31:51
Speaker 4: talked about, would President Trump possibly run it?
31:54
Speaker 2: So one, two, three, four, five, six episodes.
31:56
Speaker 4: So all of us are saying, who are on that
31:58
Speaker 4: side are saying that as well.
32:00
Speaker 1: So tell us who we're hearing from there and what
32:02
Speaker 1: your takeaways were from this group.
32:04
Speaker 2: Yes.
32:04
Speaker 3: Look, it's shocking to hear six out of seven men
32:07
Speaker 3: of color who previously voted for Joe Biden say that
32:10
Speaker 3: they would vote third party here, even when presented with
32:13
Speaker 3: the with the outcomes. that that could mean that Donald
32:17
Speaker 3: Trump wins. But what's important is who we're talking to here, right?
32:21
Speaker 3: This is a group that Hit Strategies recruited specifically of
32:25
Speaker 3: men of color that voted for Joe Biden in 2020
32:28
Speaker 3: and were undecided in the summer of 2023. The nature
32:32
Speaker 3: of them being undecided is what, you know, it doesn't
32:36
Speaker 3: surprise me that they're shopping for alternatives.
32:39
Speaker 2: A couple of things I see in that clip.
32:40
Speaker 3: One, they didn't name, many of them couldn't name the
32:43
Speaker 3: third party candidate that they were voting for.
32:44
Speaker 2: What they were really saying is not those two.
32:47
Speaker 3: The other is that this was in June of 2023,
32:49
Speaker 3: where many of them did not believe that this would
32:51
Speaker 3: be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And
32:53
Speaker 3: they certainly did not believe that America would nominate Donald
32:57
Speaker 3: Trump again. That has changed. He's now the presumptive nominee.
33:00
Speaker 3: He's now the existential threat that he was in 2020.
33:03
Speaker 3: or at least we can make him the existential threat
33:06
Speaker 3: that he was in 2020. I'm afraid that that's a
33:07
Speaker 3: lot of what we're seeing right now is that many
33:10
Speaker 3: black voters don't think that he is as much of
33:13
Speaker 3: a threat as he was back then. Um, especially because
33:17
Speaker 3: they survived it, you know, it didn't, it wasn't as
33:19
Speaker 3: bad as they expected. They survived it. We got to
33:20
Speaker 3: remind folks of just how bad it was. And then
33:23
Speaker 3: the last thing I think is important is that this
33:25
Speaker 3: is these, again, these were not never Biden voters. They were,
33:29
Speaker 3: they are voters that are shopping for alternatives. Um, The
33:33
Speaker 3: best way for Biden and for Democrats to prevent that erosion, again,
33:38
Speaker 3: it's not going to be by telling these men not
33:41
Speaker 3: to spoil for Biden. It won't be just by disqualifying
33:45
Speaker 3: the other third party candidates. It's going to be by
33:47
Speaker 3: telling them why Joe Biden is the best option.
33:49
Speaker 1: Right.
33:50
Speaker 3: Because what these men are saying is, regardless of the outcome,
33:52
Speaker 3: I'm going to vote for who I think is best
33:54
Speaker 3: for me. Even if that means Donald Trump wins, even
33:57
Speaker 3: if that means Joe Biden loses, I'm going to vote
34:00
Speaker 3: for who I think is best. How do we convince
34:02
Speaker 3: them That Joe Biden is the best option for them.
34:05
Speaker 3: I think that the way to do that is by
34:07
Speaker 3: talking about the progress that he's made over the last
34:09
Speaker 3: four years, by connecting them with that progress from the
34:12
Speaker 3: last four years before making promises over for the next
34:16
Speaker 3: four years.
34:17
Speaker 2: Right.
34:17
Speaker 1: And because you guys, you hit strategies, shared some more
34:19
Speaker 1: data with us where you found 52 percent of black
34:22
Speaker 1: voters say their lives have not improved since Biden became president.
34:25
Speaker 1: And 28% of those polled under the age of 50
34:28
Speaker 1: say their lives have gotten worse. So, yeah, of course,
34:30
Speaker 1: if you feel like things haven't gotten better for you
34:32
Speaker 1: since Donald Trump left office, why would you view him
34:35
Speaker 1: as a threat?
34:36
Speaker 2: That's right. That's right.
34:37
Speaker 3: Look, again, I am laser focused on this third of
34:41
Speaker 3: the black electorate that is, you know, the cynical voters,
34:44
Speaker 3: the double haters, the folks that don't believe the system
34:47
Speaker 3: works for them. For folks like that, man, the hope
34:51
Speaker 3: is such a fragile thing. you know, that when we
34:53
Speaker 3: inspire them, when we, and you, you worked for a
34:55
Speaker 3: guy that did a lot of, a lot of this
34:57
Speaker 3: hope work, a lot of this convincing folks that they
35:00
Speaker 3: can change their system, that they could change their system. Well,
35:03
Speaker 3: once we do that and convince them that if they vote,
35:05
Speaker 3: things will get better for them and they don't feel
35:08
Speaker 3: that material difference in their lives, it creates this hope deficit.
35:13
Speaker 3: And that is what Donald Trump is, is betting on.
35:16
Speaker 3: That's who he's talking to. And he says, what the
35:18
Speaker 3: hell do you have to lose? It's folks that have
35:21
Speaker 3: felt that erosion of hope, that tried one way that,
35:24
Speaker 3: you know, this is from a focus group of a
35:27
Speaker 3: voter who said to me, my hood didn't get any
35:29
Speaker 3: better under Obama.
35:30
Speaker 2: It didn't get any worse under Trump. So what does
35:32
Speaker 2: Biden have to do with me?
35:34
Speaker 3: That's the cynicism that Republicans and Trump are trying to
35:37
Speaker 3: lean into. And that's what we have to combat with
35:39
Speaker 3: the progress that has actually improved their lives.
35:41
Speaker 1: And it's understandable cynicism, right? Because presidents have a lot
35:44
Speaker 1: of power, but they don't have unlimited power. Sometimes there's
35:46
Speaker 1: broader economic forces that impact your ability to improve the
35:50
Speaker 1: lives of the people you're working for. Sometimes Congress blocks
35:52
Speaker 1: you from passing things. Sometimes you do a bad job.
35:54
Speaker 1: That's right. I was in the White House for four years.
35:57
Speaker 1: I saw us do a little of both. So context
35:59
Speaker 1: to remember there. Real quick, before we go to break,
36:01
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36:04
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36:07
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36:36
Speaker 1: That's crooked.com slash insiders. So let's talk about young voters.
36:52
Speaker 1: So we've seen this trend of young voters hesitating to
36:55
Speaker 1: come out and support for Biden. One reason is clearly
36:58
Speaker 1: the stance, the war in Gaza. Only 12 percent of
37:01
Speaker 1: adults under 30 say they think Biden is striking the
37:03
Speaker 1: right balance in the Israel Hamas war, while 36 percent
37:07
Speaker 1: say Biden is favoring Israel too much, according to the
37:09
Speaker 1: Pew Research Center. We've seen a bunch of voters, significant
37:13
Speaker 1: numbers in key states vote uncommitted, particularly in Michigan as
37:17
Speaker 1: a protest vote. I recently watched a focus group on
37:21
Speaker 1: uncommitted Democratic primary voters in Michigan for Sarah Longwell's The
37:25
Speaker 1: Focus Group podcast. And it was clear that Gaza was
37:28
Speaker 1: a driver for many of them for their uncommitted vote,
37:31
Speaker 1: but it wasn't all of it. There was this broader
37:32
Speaker 1: frustration with Biden and the Democratic Party, kind of like
37:35
Speaker 1: what you were just talking about. So big picture, I mean,
37:37
Speaker 1: what I'm struggling to figure out is whether young voters
37:40
Speaker 1: are actually more Republican and agree with the Republican Party
37:44
Speaker 1: on policy or whether they just don't want to identify
37:47
Speaker 1: with Democrats right now, don't want to identify with Biden
37:49
Speaker 1: or any political party at the moment, sort of like
37:52
Speaker 1: a not pox on both their houses, like let's burn
37:54
Speaker 1: down the whole city kind of feeling. What is your
37:56
Speaker 1: sense of what's driving this sort of change in sentiment
38:00
Speaker 1: with young voters?
38:02
Speaker 3: So there is a bit of this hasten the revolution
38:05
Speaker 3: that we all remember from 2016, right? Post Bernie, the
38:09
Speaker 3: Bernie movement, that there was this feeling amongst young people
38:13
Speaker 3: that the only way to change the system was to
38:16
Speaker 3: hasten the revolution, was to burn down the two-party system.
38:20
Speaker 3: As dramatic as that sounds, that is a lot of
38:23
Speaker 3: what's driving this, right? Young people do believe that the
38:26
Speaker 3: system isn't working, that this message of defend democracy, that's
38:30
Speaker 3: not going to work. for young people that have had
38:34
Speaker 3: mixed results from democracy. This is a part of why
38:37
Speaker 3: HIT has been recommending shifting from defending democracy to fixing democracy.
38:43
Speaker 1: For the messaging.
38:43
Speaker 3: For the messaging, yeah. Democracy is one of the top
38:46
Speaker 3: three issues that we spent on in 2022 was economy, abortion,
38:49
Speaker 3: and democracy. I expect democracy to be a top three
38:52
Speaker 3: issue that Democrats spend on again. So I'm not saying
38:55
Speaker 3: that we stop talking about democracy. I'm saying that as
38:58
Speaker 3: long as we're talking about defending democracy to a group
39:00
Speaker 3: of people that don't want to defend a system that
39:02
Speaker 3: doesn't work for them, then we can't mobilize them. But
39:05
Speaker 3: if we switch it, make this slight pivot from defending
39:08
Speaker 3: democracy to fixing democracy, it allows us to, one, acknowledge that.
39:13
Speaker 2: It's not working for everybody the way it's supposed to.
39:15
Speaker 3: And two, it allows us to include a bunch of
39:17
Speaker 3: disparate policies that we already agree with, getting big money
39:21
Speaker 3: out of politics, automatic voter registration, election holiday. in order
39:26
Speaker 3: to make democracy work better for everyone. And a part
39:31
Speaker 3: of that is going to be including more options than
39:35
Speaker 3: the two-party system, even if that only happens down ballot.
39:38
Speaker 1: Yeah. So this is more of a vibe, it's not
39:40
Speaker 1: a data question, so I'm a bit curious of your take.
39:43
Speaker 1: And maybe this comes from the fact that I spend
39:45
Speaker 1: too much time on Twitter, I consume too much sports media,
39:48
Speaker 1: but I feel like There's like a cohort of young
39:49
Speaker 1: men that think it's cool to be for Trump. Like
39:51
Speaker 1: you see Trump at like ultimate fighting events, right? And
39:53
Speaker 1: like friends with Dana White. There's sort of like that
39:55
Speaker 1: group of people. He seems to have become counterculture. He's
39:59
Speaker 1: the one they think will burn the system down for them.
40:02
Speaker 1: And that is very new for me because like when
40:04
Speaker 1: I was younger, being a Republican wasn't cool. Maybe being
40:08
Speaker 1: for Reagan was cool in the early 80s, but I
40:09
Speaker 1: don't remember that time. But like being for Bush wasn't cool.
40:12
Speaker 1: McCain was respected, but it wasn't like cool to be
40:14
Speaker 1: young and a pro-McCain person. Maybe I'm overgeneralizing from my
40:19
Speaker 1: time as working for Obama and on those campaigns and
40:23
Speaker 1: his ability to kind of tap into the youth cultural zeitgeist.
40:27
Speaker 1: But do you pick up sort of this kind of
40:29
Speaker 1: sentiment in the focus groups you're doing?
40:31
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
40:32
Speaker 3: Look, there is a cultural phenomenon of Trump that he's
40:35
Speaker 3: just existed in popular culture, hip hop culture for a.
40:40
Speaker 2: Very long time.
40:41
Speaker 3: And I do think that he does represent the counterculture,
40:45
Speaker 3: you know, The problem is the system, and I am
40:47
Speaker 3: your champion against the system. I think a lot of
40:50
Speaker 3: young people agree that the problem is the system, and
40:52
Speaker 3: some of them agree that he's the best person to
40:54
Speaker 3: challenge it. But there's also these other personality traits that
41:01
Speaker 3: are appealing to some of these young men, and that's
41:03
Speaker 3: this hyper-masculinity, this patriotism and spirituality. Some of these are
41:11
Speaker 3: traits and values that Democrats have largely ceded. that Democrats
41:16
Speaker 3: have to reclaim in order to maintain the coalition of
41:20
Speaker 3: men and of young people and of people of color.
41:23
Speaker 3: Masculinity is very important to men of color. Machismo is
41:27
Speaker 3: very important to Latino voters. My father is the head
41:30
Speaker 3: of his household, whether Democrats like it or not, right?
41:33
Speaker 3: He believes that. And so it's not all masculinity is toxic.
41:38
Speaker 3: We do have to reclaim... some of these values. And
41:42
Speaker 3: I think doing so is going to help us reclaim
41:44
Speaker 3: our coalition.
41:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a very, very good point. Okay, this is
41:47
Speaker 1: a little bit wonky, but stick with the audience. So
41:49
Speaker 1: we're seeing more and more polls that use a different
41:51
Speaker 1: type of survey method called online opt-in web panels. These
41:54
Speaker 1: are surveys. They're not randomized. You basically opt into taking
41:57
Speaker 1: them usually because you get some sort of incentive, maybe cash.
42:01
Speaker 1: Some pollsters like these panels because you can get a
42:03
Speaker 1: big sample for a relatively low cost and you can
42:06
Speaker 1: do them very quickly. Critics of online opt-in surveys say
42:10
Speaker 1: they're not statistically sound. You're more likely to get crappy
42:13
Speaker 1: data because someone's just going to pocket your cash and
42:15
Speaker 1: say whatever, and they don't care if it's accurate. To
42:17
Speaker 1: test the accuracy of these kinds of surveys, an organization
42:21
Speaker 1: called Split Ticket recently did two youth polls. One was
42:25
Speaker 1: done with more traditional means. The other was an opt-in
42:29
Speaker 1: online web panel that I just mentioned. So the results
42:31
Speaker 1: were super different. So the traditional poll had more traditional poll.
42:35
Speaker 1: It was still like sort of text-based, but it was
42:36
Speaker 1: more traditional. They had Biden beating Trump 35 to 25
42:41
Speaker 1: with a big chunk of the vote going to RFK Jr.
42:43
Speaker 1: and undecided. The online opt-in poll had Trump narrowly beating
42:46
Speaker 1: Biden 34 to 32, so completely flipped. What do you
42:51
Speaker 1: make of that split and the accuracy of these opt-in polls,
42:56
Speaker 1: but the fact that we're seeing them more and more?
42:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, look, this is why Hit Strategies uses a mixed methodology.
43:02
Speaker 3: Most of our polls include three ways of collecting data,
43:06
Speaker 3: online panels, text, and live phone calls. And that is
43:11
Speaker 3: to try and mute some of the noise that we see,
43:14
Speaker 3: the variance that we see across each.
43:18
Speaker 2: Platform.
43:19
Speaker 3: The other thing I would say is that the online
43:21
Speaker 3: panels serve, they're faster, they serve a purpose. They are
43:25
Speaker 3: not going to help us get to the most accurate
43:27
Speaker 3: horse race. because we can't validate each of those respondents
43:31
Speaker 3: to a voter file. And so a lot of the
43:34
Speaker 3: variance that we see, even in some of the most
43:38
Speaker 3: traditional polls, is the difference between a likely voter, a
43:42
Speaker 3: registered voter, and an unregistered voter. Well, on a panel,
43:45
Speaker 3: you can't verify any of that the way that we
43:48
Speaker 3: do in text and in phone polls. And so when
43:51
Speaker 3: we can look at vote history over time, not from
43:54
Speaker 3: self-reported vote history, but look at the actual voter files,
43:58
Speaker 3: it allows us to make some, getting into the weeds here,
44:00
Speaker 3: but to weigh some of those quotas to make sure
44:02
Speaker 3: that this is the most reflective of the most likely electorate.
44:06
Speaker 3: And we've seen that change the outcome of a horse
44:08
Speaker 3: race by 20 points.
44:10
Speaker 2: That's right.
44:11
Speaker 1: So be wary of these things is all I would say.
44:14
Speaker 1: So let's close out by talking about what the Biden
44:17
Speaker 1: campaign needs to do to win and win back black
44:20
Speaker 1: and young voters in particular. Biden has been on the
44:23
Speaker 1: road a lot. He recently went to Arizona and Nevada
44:25
Speaker 1: to reach Latino voters. Last week, he did an interview
44:28
Speaker 1: with Univision, one of the largest Spanish language news networks
44:31
Speaker 1: in the country. He's done rallies in every swing state.
44:34
Speaker 1: He's talked about key issues like organized labor, border policy,
44:38
Speaker 1: and abortion. This week, he is in Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh.
44:42
Speaker 1: He's got one more stop in Philly tomorrow to talk
44:44
Speaker 1: about tax cuts again. And he just unveiled this new
44:46
Speaker 1: student loan forgiveness plan that could help about 30 million
44:49
Speaker 1: borrowers erase their college loans.
44:51
Speaker 2: Let's go.
44:52
Speaker 1: I wrote down 30 billion. I was like, damn, that's
44:54
Speaker 1: a lot of borrowers. Um, let's start with young voters.
44:57
Speaker 1: What message do you think, like, what are they looking
44:59
Speaker 1: to hear? What wins them back? Is it like policy stuff?
45:02
Speaker 1: Is it vibe stuff? Is it age? Like, what are
45:05
Speaker 1: you hearing from voters that they want to hear?
45:07
Speaker 2: Uh, the vibes, the vibes suck, man. The vibes are bad.
45:10
Speaker 2: It's a bad vibes election.
45:12
Speaker 3: Um, look, uh, I get this question from democratic operatives
45:17
Speaker 3: every single day. What is the message that we need
45:19
Speaker 3: to win? And there's two things wrong with the question.
45:22
Speaker 3: One is that it implies that there is a message.
45:24
Speaker 1: A thing, yeah.
45:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, right.
45:26
Speaker 3: As opposed to thinking about which message works and which
45:29
Speaker 3: message doesn't, we only think about which.
45:32
Speaker 2: Message works for particular groups of voters, right?
45:35
Speaker 3: Talking about young people, the message that is going to
45:38
Speaker 3: be most effective is one is going to be a
45:40
Speaker 3: message about progress. What have we actually gotten done? And look,
45:45
Speaker 3: I want to be clear here. The way to deliver
45:48
Speaker 3: this progress is not just telling them how much we've
45:51
Speaker 3: gotten done. It is giving them.
45:53
Speaker 2: Access to it.
45:54
Speaker 3: It's their ability to access student loan forgiveness, to access
45:59
Speaker 3: the infrastructure jobs, to access $ 35 insulin.
46:02
Speaker 2: We call it click here messaging.
46:03
Speaker 3: When we needed their votes, we put in the palm
46:06
Speaker 3: of their hand, click here to find your ballot, to
46:09
Speaker 3: request your ballot. Click here to find your polling place.
46:12
Speaker 3: Click here to make a plan to vote. Hell, click
46:14
Speaker 3: here and we'll come pick you up to vote. When
46:17
Speaker 3: we needed something for them, we knew exactly how to
46:19
Speaker 3: get them to do it. Well, now they need something
46:21
Speaker 3: from us and they need to be able to click
46:23
Speaker 3: here to access student loan forgiveness and click here to
46:26
Speaker 3: see a list of pharmacies with $ 35 insulin or click
46:30
Speaker 3: here to see thousands of jobs created by the infrastructure
46:33
Speaker 3: bill because the absence of that, Tommy, means that... We
46:37
Speaker 3: are only telling them about how much we've done and
46:41
Speaker 3: it validates their cynicism that this is a government that's
46:44
Speaker 3: working for everybody but them. Everybody else got tax credits
46:47
Speaker 3: and I didn't. Everybody else got student loan forgiveness, but
46:50
Speaker 3: I still got debt.
46:50
Speaker 1: Trump sent me a check during the pandemic.
46:53
Speaker 2: Maybe two.
46:53
Speaker 1: That's right. You also did a focus group on student
46:56
Speaker 1: debt relief in particular, right? What did you hear in
46:59
Speaker 1: that group?
47:01
Speaker 3: The frustration that young people have around student loan debt,
47:04
Speaker 3: it's pissing me off because because we know that this
47:09
Speaker 3: president has forgiven more student loan debt than every previous
47:12
Speaker 3: president combined. They are very critical of him and the
47:17
Speaker 3: progress that's been made. And I think student loan forgiveness
47:21
Speaker 3: is indicative of the problem in connecting that progress and
47:26
Speaker 3: the opportunities that we have to solve it. One, look,
47:29
Speaker 3: I have tried to. I've been on studentaid.gov. I've been
47:32
Speaker 3: on the White House website. I can't find out. how
47:35
Speaker 3: to apply for student loan forgiveness.
47:37
Speaker 1: This is a messaging problem.
47:38
Speaker 2: I do this for a living.
47:40
Speaker 3: I can't figure it out. We can't expect the cynics to.
47:42
Speaker 3: But the other is that it's a messenger problem. The
47:46
Speaker 3: best messenger for all of this progress are people that
47:50
Speaker 3: have their shared experience, that live their same walk of life.
47:54
Speaker 3: And so to the extent that this campaign and the
47:58
Speaker 3: administration can continue to put those people forward, that Joe
48:02
Speaker 3: Biden can continue to sit on the couches of people
48:04
Speaker 3: who's student loans he just paid off or can be
48:06
Speaker 3: introduced at these rallies by people who's, you know, like,
48:11
Speaker 3: and we see the Trump campaign doing that, centering the
48:14
Speaker 3: voters that they want to win, even the Proud Boys and.
48:18
Speaker 1: The white supremacists, right? Yeah, the most cynical ways.
48:20
Speaker 2: Saluting them before every rally, you know.
48:23
Speaker 3: We have an opportunity to start showcasing the people whose
48:26
Speaker 3: lives are getting better and who look like the audience,
48:29
Speaker 3: the voters that we're trying to go win.
48:30
Speaker 1: Does it matter if you tell a voter who's frustrated that,
48:35
Speaker 1: there was all these, there was big expectations about student
48:37
Speaker 1: debt relief that the reason it didn't go through is
48:40
Speaker 1: that the Republican Supreme Court struck it down because of
48:43
Speaker 1: a bunch of lawsuits from Republicans. Does that context make
48:45
Speaker 1: a difference or are they just like, nah, I'm pissed?
48:47
Speaker 3: No, I don't think that that makes as much of
48:49
Speaker 3: a difference as after the Supreme Court struck it down,
48:52
Speaker 3: Joe Biden said, fuck it, watch this. You know, like that,
48:56
Speaker 3: that's exactly right. That's the shit that shows he's fighting
49:00
Speaker 3: for us. You know, he's willing to do what it takes.
49:03
Speaker 3: You know, there's, That's the other appeal of Trump is
49:06
Speaker 3: that regardless of what the system says, regardless of what
49:09
Speaker 3: systems try to stop him, he's gonna do what he
49:11
Speaker 3: thinks is in his voter's best interest. And Joe Biden
49:14
Speaker 3: defying the Supreme Court and finding other ways to get
49:17
Speaker 3: this done reflects that.
49:18
Speaker 2: It reflects his willingness and his ability to fight for us.
49:21
Speaker 1: That's great.
49:21
Speaker 2: Yeah.
49:22
Speaker 1: That's always the message, right? I'm fighting for you. Here's
49:24
Speaker 1: the obstacle. Here's what I'll do about it. You also
49:26
Speaker 1: had some interesting recommendations for how to persuade black voters
49:30
Speaker 1: based on a ton of surveys and research and focus groups.
49:32
Speaker 1: Can you sort of walk us through some of those
49:34
Speaker 1: key messages and how to convince people?
49:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, you know, we've covered a lot of this.
49:40
Speaker 3: I think there's three things that we got to do
49:42
Speaker 3: to win. And this is probably true of most incumbents.
49:45
Speaker 3: You have to talk about the progress you've made. You
49:47
Speaker 3: got to talk about the threat of your opponent. You
49:49
Speaker 3: got to talk about your promise for the future, right?
49:52
Speaker 3: I don't know that we're going to get a lot
49:54
Speaker 3: of the third one. I don't know that they're going
49:55
Speaker 3: to believe a lot of the promise for the future
49:57
Speaker 3: if we don't demonstrate the progress that's been made. And
50:01
Speaker 3: so we got to keep connecting them to that progress.
50:04
Speaker 3: The most important thing we could do with the message
50:06
Speaker 3: is to continue to change the messenger. We're spending a
50:08
Speaker 3: lot of money talking about the progress, and more and
50:11
Speaker 3: more I'm seeing the campaign put out validating voices. But again,
50:18
Speaker 3: for the cynic who doesn't trust politicians and doesn't trust
50:22
Speaker 3: pastors and doesn't trust athletes, even the ones they like,
50:25
Speaker 3: they like Barack Obama and they like LeBron James, if
50:28
Speaker 3: they both showed up in their community and said, if
50:29
Speaker 3: you vote this time, we're going to get rid of
50:32
Speaker 3: these student loans, they're not going to believe that either.
50:34
Speaker 3: They know that there's a system that's bigger than that.
50:37
Speaker 3: including the Supreme Court. And so continuing to change those
50:41
Speaker 3: messengers and putting forth people that look like the audiences
50:44
Speaker 3: that we're trying to talk to is going to be
50:46
Speaker 3: the best way to break through.
50:47
Speaker 1: We were talking earlier about needing to make the voter
50:51
Speaker 1: the hero of the story. Can you talk about that,
50:53
Speaker 1: what that means, and how to make voters feel powerful
50:56
Speaker 1: and why that matters?
50:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right.
50:57
Speaker 3: And so pollsters are often looking for proxies to determine
51:03
Speaker 3: who's going to actually vote. That proxy that most people
51:05
Speaker 3: are familiar with is voter enthusiasm. How enthusiastic are you
51:08
Speaker 3: about the upcoming election?
51:10
Speaker 2: Well, not a lot of.
51:11
Speaker 3: People are enthusiastic about this election, especially voters of color.
51:14
Speaker 3: I had a black man tell me in Philadelphia that
51:16
Speaker 3: voting for him was like taking out the trash. He
51:20
Speaker 3: didn't always want to do it. But if you didn't
51:21
Speaker 3: do it, shit starts to stink around here.
51:24
Speaker 1: That's a good metaphor.
51:25
Speaker 2: You know, that's a guy that's going to vote.
51:26
Speaker 1: I like that guy.
51:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, that guy's going to vote. He might not do
51:29
Speaker 2: it enthusiastically.
51:29
Speaker 1: Expectations are in the right place with that dude.
51:32
Speaker 2: Just get the trash out. That's it, you know.
51:35
Speaker 3: Well, for folks like that, right, we got to, the
51:38
Speaker 3: proxy that hit strategies has found that's most applicable to
51:42
Speaker 3: who's going to vote is.
51:43
Speaker 2: Perceptions of power.
51:44
Speaker 3: We ask the question, regardless of how often you vote,
51:46
Speaker 3: how much power, do you believe your vote has to
51:48
Speaker 3: make a difference? The higher they rate those perceptions of power,
51:51
Speaker 3: the less likely they are to waste that vote. And
51:55
Speaker 3: so the messaging that's most effective are messages that make
51:59
Speaker 3: the voter feel powerful. And the way to do that
52:01
Speaker 3: is to make them the hero of the story because
52:04
Speaker 3: of our votes. Our votes are making our lives better.
52:09
Speaker 3: That requires taking the cape off of politicians, taking the
52:12
Speaker 3: cape off of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. But it's
52:15
Speaker 3: not just them. It's every politician and making the hero
52:18
Speaker 3: of the story the voters and their ability to stand
52:20
Speaker 3: together and make the change that they want.
52:22
Speaker 1: That's such a good point. And I feel like Stacey
52:24
Speaker 1: Abrams really effectively did this in Georgia, even though she
52:27
Speaker 1: wasn't able to win, you know, the race and become governor. But,
52:31
Speaker 1: you know, in 2020, you could look directly at Georgia
52:34
Speaker 1: voters and say, you elected Joe Biden president, you got
52:37
Speaker 1: him a Senate that allowed him to do X, Y,
52:40
Speaker 1: and Z, you know, named Katonji Brown Jackson to the
52:42
Speaker 1: Supreme Court, passed bigger sort of stimulus checks, right? It
52:45
Speaker 1: sort of making the voter, the hero of the story. It's, it,
52:48
Speaker 1: it makes so much sense, but we don't do that
52:51
Speaker 1: in our political debates enough because it's, well, Trump's a
52:54
Speaker 1: cult of personality.
52:55
Speaker 2: That's right.
52:56
Speaker 1: Right. And we just focus on, you know, it's like
52:58
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's age verse, uh, you know, make America great
53:02
Speaker 1: again or whatever. And we're never talking about sort of
53:04
Speaker 1: what the voters can do to like make their own
53:05
Speaker 1: lives better. It's about what these politicians do for you,
53:08
Speaker 1: which you, to your point, people are cynical about and
53:10
Speaker 1: they don't believe it's going to happen.
53:11
Speaker 2: That's exactly right.
53:12
Speaker 3: And, you know, we, uh, one of the organizations that, um,
53:16
Speaker 3: that pot safe has been supporting his new Georgia project.
53:19
Speaker 2: And they did a thank you campaign.
53:21
Speaker 3: To black voters in Georgia of voters from around the country,
53:25
Speaker 3: thanking black voters in Georgia for tax credits and thanking
53:28
Speaker 3: black voters in Georgia for, um, for the, for the
53:31
Speaker 3: two senators that they sent, um, that, that, that allowed,
53:35
Speaker 3: you know, the infrastructure infrastructure reduction act. And it, again, it's, it's,
53:40
Speaker 3: it is empowering the voters and showing them that because
53:43
Speaker 3: of you, this mother in Philadelphia, And this student in
53:47
Speaker 3: Milwaukee and this single parent in Arizona, all of their
53:50
Speaker 3: lives are better because of your votes here in Georgia.
53:53
Speaker 2: It is so empowering. And it leads to the outcome
53:57
Speaker 2: that we want.
53:57
Speaker 1: That's so smart. You got to close the loop. You
53:58
Speaker 1: can't just show up on election day and say, vote.
54:00
Speaker 1: You got to say, six months after election day, here's
54:02
Speaker 1: what your vote did. That's right. Terrence, thank you so
54:04
Speaker 1: much for doing the show, for being here, for the
54:07
Speaker 1: work you're doing. How can folks find you if they
54:09
Speaker 1: want to? harass you more or learn more.
54:12
Speaker 3: You know, Hit Strategies puts out a lot of data.
54:14
Speaker 3: We believe in data for public good. And so we're
54:16
Speaker 3: giving a lot of it away. Please follow us on Twitter, HitStrat, H-I-T-S-T-R-A-T,
54:23
Speaker 3: or go to our website, www.hitstrat.com.
54:26
Speaker 6: Excellent.
54:27
Speaker 1: Well, everyone should give him a follow and thank you again.
54:30
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me. I'll come back anytime.
54:33
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54:36
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54:39
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54:42
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Speaker 1: a review. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
54:56
Speaker 1: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
54:59
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55:02
Speaker 1: Wakim is our senior producer. Reid Cherlin is our executive producer.
55:06
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55:09
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55:12
Speaker 1: Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Writing support by Hallie Kiefer. Madeline
55:16
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55:18
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55:22
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