Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / Week 3 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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Week 3 Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not talking about last week,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: but we're also probably not picking the rams anytime soon.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I'm here Greg Rosenthal with Cynthia Freeland, and yes, this
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: is the man Versus Model segment taking over the country
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: every week. The world we picked fan games.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Not just the country.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: That's it is, it is global. I have appreciated everyone
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: that has been listening to this and hopefully not taking
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: all of our advice. More on that late there, because
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: some of it's good, some of it's bad. Yeah, let's
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: talk about next week very quickly. I went to zero
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in three. That was a tough situation. Cynthia and I
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: were one together. Great, you weren't one and two. You're
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: three and three over on two and four. So I
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  Speaker 1: hate starting out the season like this, but I don't care.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I am confident. This week we are picking winners and
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: we're gonna make it up to our listeners. I'm gonna start.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go first this week. Now that I'm I'm
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: kind of on that.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: I like it. Listen, whatever gets you centered and grounded
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  Speaker 2: and ready to go, let's go.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I kind of need it, like we need a good week.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I cannot see the rest another one in two week.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I feel great about the Seattle Seahawks minus four and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: a half this week at home. I was really surprised
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: when I saw this number. The way the numbers have
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: been this season, I was like, Okay, this is gonna
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: be six and a half, this is gonna be seven.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: It might even be seven a half. I would have
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: considered it at seven and a half. Here's a few
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: reasons why Miami the thirtieth best pass blocking offensive line
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  Speaker 1: in the league according to PFF. Like they can't protect.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: They were not the same Miami Dolphins for the six
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: and a half quarters that tuatungue Iiloa was out there,
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  Speaker 1: and that really sticks in my mind. They're twenty ninth
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: in a rushing efficiency, So what are they good at offensively?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Really nothing to me. What about their defensive backs? Okay,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: they can at least have a good matchup. Jalen Ramsey
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: has not looked like the same Jalen r.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Traveling doesn't look good on him right He needs to
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: stay on the right.
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  Speaker 1: Side, and he's coming off of an injury. And speaking
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: of traveling, they're going all the way across the country
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  Speaker 1: to Seattle four and a half seems way too low.
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  Speaker 1: I love this. That's why I'm taking it first, because
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I know you could take it with me, but when
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: we joined forces last week it did not go well.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: All right, that is my first pick. I want to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: hear who you have first, Cynthia.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: I think there's a completely misspriced line for the Packers
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: when they face the Tennessee Titans. I loved the Malik
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Willis like I think my check cash every time I
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: worked there, whatever. I thought that was very funny. However,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the opportunity here for the run game to really just
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: exceed expectations. Whether it's Malik Willis or Jordan Love, I
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: don't care. Saw them last week against the Colts really
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: exploit the run. I don't think that it's a great
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: run defense. Is this not the same situation. But ultimately
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: in this matchup, you're going to be able to see
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: that run game persist.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: That surprises me. So I do care a lot. If
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love plays this game, I'd probably be on the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Packer side. I like the Titans in this game, not
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: enough to pick them in this spot, but I like
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the Titans. I picked them to w on game deview
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth, just because I like how their
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: defense is played so far. So your first pick is Packers.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Mine's gonna be an AFC South.
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  Speaker 2: Packers and I get three points though, Yeah, okay, not
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: just Packers straight up, I want I am taking my
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: three points and I'm keeping minute.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you gotta, you gotta lock it in early. Who
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: knows how it could change the Colts. I'm taking them
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: minus one point five this week against the Bears. I
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: really struggled with this this pick. I thought about the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Giants as a pick, but I'm going Colts over the Bears.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I just don't think that the Bears are that good
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  Speaker 1: of a team right now. I mean, some of their
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: offensive numbers through two weeks are historically low, and when
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I look at their defense, it's good. Is it great?
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  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're really built to stop the run.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I think Matt Eberflus built a defense to be one
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: of the best pass defenses in the entire NFL. They're
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: great in the secondary, their linebackers cover, but they are
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  Speaker 1: a little soft on the edges. They're a little soft
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  Speaker 1: up the middle. And you play a Colts team that
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: has Anthony Richards and that has Jonathan Taylor, that's been
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  Speaker 1: outstanding on the ground, like EPA for playt gen stats,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: all that stuff has the Colts as basically the second
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  Speaker 1: or third best rushing team in the league against a
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  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre run defense. And then I just think about
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: sometimes logic and maybe this is where I go off
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  Speaker 1: of the model and go up. But I look at
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the Colts team and sometimes I just can't see them
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  Speaker 1: as an OH and three team. These two teams look
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: like one and two type of teams to me, and
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  Speaker 1: the Colts a little bit of extra juice, you know,
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  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra motivation to avoid that zher
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  Speaker 1: to three start. I just think the way that seasons
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: play out, I see them winning this game. I see
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Taylor and Richardson maybe getting more rushing attempts that he
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: has the last few weeks in getting a win.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Against the Bears. I mean, if you said Taylor in
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  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter like that, like you don't play him
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quart I don't know. I didn't understand that.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: But I'm going exactly the opposite we are going, which
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  Speaker 2: actually means we're guaranteed to get one of them. One
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: of us will be reading your fighter and this one
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  Speaker 2: I'm going with the Bears. I'm taking the points. I
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: think the interesting part here is when I look at
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  Speaker 2: you talk about defenses and you talk about vulnerability points
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: in the defense, I'm pretty sure that the Bears offensive
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: situation with Shane Waldron is going to say, hey, this
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  Speaker 2: run defense. No DeForest Buckner too lot has been on
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: the injury report. When you're running against this team, there
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: are so many options. This is a like if I'm
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: playing in DFS leagues, I am like buying lots of
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: shares of DeAndre Swift because I think he's probably under
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: price given that he hasn't really performed very much earlier.
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  Speaker 2: Like this is a situation where I know there a
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: line is not a source of strength yet. I know
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: third down is an issue still, but I think this
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: is like the Caleb believes this is his first passing touchdown.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: You we're gonna deny the man opportunity for his first
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: passing touchdown. That's too many injuries.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: He can get a passing touchdown. I don't think you
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: can get a win. My final one feel better about
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: this one. The cult was kind of my third pick.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Saints minus two point five.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Love it.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I really find this time of year fascinating for picking game,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: because to me, it's kind of the ultimate to the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: first two weeks of data tell you more, or to
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the historical data tell you more. And I know because
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: we talked about it already on game debut. You picked
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the Eagles straight up in this game, and yet to me,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the two weeks matter more. If you have an offense
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: as good as the Saints have been the last two weeks,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: it means at the end of the season they are
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: going to be a high tier offense. And if you
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: want to look at the history this falcon, I mean
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: this Eagles team has been a little bit of a
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: mess for a while. On defense, they have really not
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: had answers going back to last year. They were terrible
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: all last year. Vic Fangio doesn't seem like they've really
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: figured out. And when I see like the strengths of
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: this Saints offense, which to me is going to be
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: leaning against this Eagles defense on the edges in the
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: running game, I think that translates very well to what
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: their vulnerabilities have been. And so you're at home. The
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Saints are majoring in outside zone. The Eagles are flunking
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  Speaker 1: right now in terms of their defense. I love the
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  Speaker 1: Saints minus two point five this week.
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  Speaker 2: But if I just told you that it kind of
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: neither one matters yet because it's not enough data for
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: one season. But also last season doesn't matter either, So
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: like what if the answer is neither anyway?
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: But then why does your model? I'm just curious because
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: we have the time here, yeah it's a podcast. Why
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  Speaker 1: does your model have the Eagles winning this game outright?
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  Speaker 1: When I know there must have been some inputs before
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the season that the Saints team wasn't going to be
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: that great. But at this point, like they've shown a lot.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Well, they've shown their production has been good, but they
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: haven't shown a lot in terms of variabilities and plays.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: They've just like run outside zone. Eighty percent of their
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: plays have been a run or play action. Like they've
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: run a lot of outside zone. So they're not showing
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: me a lot of different plays. That is a limiting factor.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: So if something goes wrong, we don't really have any
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: data points to suggest that if they get into a
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: decent hole, that digging themselves out would be something that
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: would be easy to do, right or you know, we
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: don't know. There's a lot of We do.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Have like ten plus years of pretty tricky data on
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr. That's great, well buzzing now, so I'm not
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: aligating this.
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  Speaker 2: So the comps like so it's like real estate, right,
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Like if I'm going to go buy a house, the
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: price is based on the price per square foot, right,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: That's the thing you look for, doppelgangers, lookalikes, things that
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: you can say, this is what compares to this. So
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: in historical data, when defense is configured like this, with
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: data like this, have faced offenses that look like this,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: configured like this, that's what's happening. So it's not necessarily
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: like only this year's data. It's also lookalikes that are
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: relevant lookalikes from the past. So just say, you know, like,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: that's how the model does it.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: I look alike under the same team is the twenty nineteen.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: They just got some magic to me.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: No, I don't know. I like the Saints. Let's get
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: your third pick, my third pick, listen. I loved what
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I saw from parts of this Raiders offense. I thought
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: it was a lot of fun to watch Brock powers
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Davante Adams was essentially horizontal. I am still unclear if
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: he's subject to the same laws of gravity as the
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: rest of us. It is unclear, but I think this
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: is a really nice plus spot for them in a
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: game against the Panthers that are struggling, they're making some changes.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I think they're going to win by at least five
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: and a half points. That to me feels like an opportunity.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: It is their home opener. Gardner Minshew has some really
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: interesting data, a little bit of like very vegasy data right,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Like there's some Boomer bust situation run down the field
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: very well he's been throwing down to. But I mean again,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: seventeen being horizontal and brock Bauers just lighting things up.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I even think this could be a plus spot for
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Jacoby Meyers, a guy who saw the end zone quite
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: a bit last season. So I just think this is
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: a really good opportunity for them. Especially there's no Derek
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Brown on that defense for the Panthers. I haven't seen
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of spark there. Maybe Andy Dalton will actually
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: make the offense have to do even more because if
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: he scores a bit right, then the score could get
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: the score overall could get jacked up a little bit.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: But I think this will be a situation where Max
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: Crosby against those tackles just feels like a bad idea.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: So get the ball out quickly. Andy Dalton, stay with
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: your kind of your history of being a quick passer.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: But Dold could play well.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: I feel like it's a anti Dalton take at all.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: It's just a pro Vegas take.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: If Bryce Young was a starter. I suspect this line
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: would be a couple points bigger in Vegas.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: In I wonder, what can we call them Vegas? It's
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Cynthia Calmy would have.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Be are pretty similar to Vegas. The model computes it all,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: and I'm with you. If I had to pick a
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: side on this, it's not what was one of my
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: favorite ones, just because it's so much uncertainty.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Becau Jeff Saturday has won a game in this league.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I mean that they pick the Raiders if I had to.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to wrap up the show just with
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: a little something that I just wanted to point out
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: about last week. I'm embarrassed I went to one three.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I failed. But if you do watch this on our
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: YouTube show, you can see the little extra picks I
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: make which I throw out at the end, and I
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: actually have a note card I want our producer to
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: throw up there and you can see I circled about
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: five more picks and I set them on the show
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: New Orleans, Vikings, Bucks, Steelers, and Jags. I went four
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: and one on those picks. So that's two weeks in
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: a row. That little extra box.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: What's in the box this week?
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: That I made something like eight and two, So those
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: are just a little extra ones.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: I want to know the box beforehand.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, I know Giants I told you before, and I'm botho.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I like Giants a lot plus six point Frae. That
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: one I really debated. I almost wanted to put that
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: in my top three. I just think the Browns are
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: not good enough to be favored by that much at
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: this point. I like the Ravens minus one, kind of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: going off the whole. Can't imagine the Raves getting to
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Owen three. I think they're a.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Little more math than that. But I do like the
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: next Craig stat and.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Then the Bengals minus seven. I just think they're offense.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: T Higgins coming back against the worst defense in the
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: league of bad secondary I think they could win that
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: game by ten. I think it could be like thirty
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: three to twenty one. Washington puts up some points but.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I like, like, I like what you're like, what you're saying.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: What if you want to hear more I do of Cynthia? No, no, no,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: got enough of me. It's been along Oh NFL Tube channel.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You can check out Cynthia's weekly preview every week, right,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: so please game show Cynthia Freeland the Numbers game and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: uh yeah, it's been awesome all week. Appreciate you checking
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: out Man versus Model. Week three, we will be.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Back as winners. You back as winners, that's true.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And Week four, but on Sunday Night, Patrick clayban Nick
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: shook an eye wrapping up all the week three games
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: and yeah, I can brag about how smart these picks were.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Then football is back