Latest / The Pluralist Podcast - with Orly Erez-Likhovski and Rabbi Josh Weinberg / Israel After the Vote: Who Won, What’s Next, and What Kind of Country Will Israel Be?
Transcript
- speaker-1: the Knesset based on the results of yesterday's elections the Knesset will be sworn in proportionally with each list getting its number that it you know rightfully won in the elections. However we still won't have a government by then and we won't have people you filling out we won't have a coalition and an opposition and people will not be appointed to ministerial positions as of yet. speaker-0: the good news is we don't have a scenario that the current government will continue as it is, okay? Because they have so it's important to frame the results as a defeat to the Netanyahu block. Okay, maybe maybe Netanyahu himself has a good result block speaker-1: showed party, yes, he did very well. speaker-0: has you know decreased dramatically today you know in the twenty two twenty twenty two elections they got sixty four mandates and with Gidon Sao they had sixty eight seats in the Knesset. Now they have fifty three. Maybe it will change to fifty five but that's a huge decrease in the number. So they they don't have a majority okay no matter what. So the scenarios are either some kind of a minority government with the Arab party supporting from the outside, a unity government like you said, or another round of elections. Center. speaker-1: And I'm Rabbi Josh Weinberg, Vice President for Israel and Reform Zionism at the URJ and Director of ARTZA. And here we are in person in Jerusalem the day after elections. are recording. Yes. speaker-0: A couple of hours before Josh is flying to sit with me here. speaker-1: Well, thank you for making time for me. And I'll just say we are recording on Wednesday, October 28th, the 17th of Cheshvan, the day after Israelis went to the polls. speaker-0: When we we still don't have final results. speaker-1: And we're going to get into all the analysis, but Orly, just like give me, like, how are you feeling? speaker-0: I'm exhausted both physically and mentally, I think, especially during the last few months leading to the elections with everything that we've put in our effort to you know bring about change and also after a v really, really exhausting election day which I spent from six o'clock in the morning as an observer in one of the ballots in the in an ultra orthodox neighborhood in Jerusalem. Wow. for six hours, which actually went surprisingly well. And there was no fraud and everybody was super professional and I was you know it was speaker-1: People waited their turn in line and they... speaker-0: The like people on the the c the committee, the s the the the ballots committee were really professional. I was actually very surprised for it to be a good experience and then I went to vote and then I spent some time just trying to convince voters to vote for a certain party and actually got very negative responses. So it wasn't a very pleasant experience for the end of the election day and then it was started pouring rain and we all get wet. It was like Seemed like yeah. And then of course we sat down to see the exit polls. But first tell me how your elections speaker-1: Yeah, so I flew here and of course I was here with the Jewish Agency Board of Governors meetings and that's very important and it's important that we have strong representation there but it worked out very well that I could be here to vote and it was an amazing cathartic moment. I mean we had been building up for so long and talking about it and really four years and how important and how fateful these elections are and yeah speaker-0: with a flying speaker-1: we think 60 to 70 thousand people And it really meant a great deal to see people taking the effort and paying the money and investing the resources to come here and vote and be here. It was, yeah, I have to say it was a big deal. I came to, I was in Tel Aviv and I came to Yerushalayim, I came to Jerusalem to my polling place and I was greeted there by none other than my Rabbi and his wife, Rabbi Levi Wyman Kelman and Paula who were standing outside my polling place pushing their party. may or may not also be my party. And it was just to get that hug and just people saying all the time, you uncle, you flew here, that's so wonderful and so wonderful to see you and thank you for helping us and thank you. That was huge. speaker-0: I think the energy during election day was was was good. we felt a lot of people, you know, coming in. The voting rate from the very early hours of the morning was like record high, breaking all previous records since nineteen seventeen speaker-1: Yeah, it was about 77.7 percent we think, which is high. And of course it was different in different areas and different sectors of society or different communities. But just, you know, going around Tel Aviv in the morning, the lines were around the corner from early in the morning, from 7 a.m. And people were, you know, it was just... Everyone was out and so lively and it was full of hope. Yeah. Okay. And so, I voted and was talking to people and, and I have to say that people kept coming up to me and telling me who they voted for. And just for our listeners who live in North America, it is totally common. I was spending the day with two other rabbinic colleagues who, you know, coming from North America and it just felt very odd to them that you can, that's totally normal to go up to someone and ask them who they voted for. That's not a thing in America. Yeah, it's very taboo. And here we grabbed a falafel afterwards and we were talking to people in line like, so did you vote it right? Who did you vote for? And they saw a kippah in my head. And so they said, well, you may not be happy with who I voted for. And they said, I voted for the Democrat team. And I said, no, that's wonderful. That's OK. Again, totally. speaker-0: a misconception when you talk about it speaker-1: Totally misconception, totally profiling and know who that stands for. And different people said, know, it was interesting to hear the calculation of how people decided for whom they're going to vote. speaker-0: Yeah we'll we'll we'll talk about speaker-1: And and then I to see I went to see the Mirgam the exit polls the exit polls that come at 10 p.m. right after the polls close and I was in a room full of young people who were really excited with the first exit polls and then a couple hours later it started to you know fill out a little bit and then we woke up this morning. speaker-0: Yeah, so I I think we should say first of all that we started to hear rumors in the evening, even before the exit polls, that the Likuds is going to be the largest party. And I think that was a huge, huge surprise for everybody because no poll before the elections actually you know, expected this So and and eventually that was the both the exit polls shows and what the results actually showed. We up to now we have eighty-five percent of the votes that was actually were actually counted, but we also have a huge amount of sort of double envelopes. I don't know how we describe it in English. People who vote not in their assigned polling station and therefore they they vote in two envelopes and it takes time to open it just to make sure that people didn't vote more than once. speaker-1: And that's particularly the case sometimes with soldiers who are on this. speaker-0: People who are hospitalized. and also we have like a sort of a very strange thing that anybody could come to any polling station and say, Well, I am I have an accessibility problem and therefore I decide to vote here, and they could vote basically wherever they want. So we have a record number of those double envelopes which are more than five hundred thousand. So that's a million and that's like over ten seats in the so speaker-1: Tetanedates, yeah. speaker-0: That is going to take time. We'll know this only by Thursday or Friday. But we see sort of the general picture. And I should say that the exit post showed basically 70-50 50 to the parties supporting Netanyahu and 70 to the anti-Netanyao parties, and that has changed over you know the the hours since yesterday and now after 85% of the votes being counted, we're standing at 5367. speaker-1: So we just remind everyone that of course what everyone knows already that the magic number is 61 and we're trying to make sure there's no party that receives more than 50 % of the vote and so everyone has to make a coalition. I'm sure everyone is well aware of that. And so as soon as the vote comes in everyone immediately takes out their calculator and starts doing arithmetic and see who can add up to what. speaker-0: But then it's a bit complicated, right? Because it seems and we've we've seen we've known it for quite a while now that not all votes are the same, are counted the same, right? you have the Iraq has huge campaign in the US with the upcoming election. Every vote speaker-1: Yes. speaker-0: And every voice and every vote should count. Unfortunately, we're seeing here that despite the fact that the opposition to Netanyahu has 67 votes, which is wow, that's a a huge majority, right? it it is much more problematic than this because 19 seats out of the 67 belong to the Arab parties, the two Arab parties, the joint list, and Dram and Sur Abbas's party. and there is many people, both in the co current coalition and the current opposition, that do not think that there should be a majority. Which is dependent on Arabia. speaker-1: And let's say a little bit about that, you know, the 11 seats that the joint list got, essentially let us remind our listeners that the joint list became the joint list because of the threshold. I remember listening to Ahmed Tibby, who's from the Ta'al party, who said there are three reasons why we're putting this joint list together. speaker-0: And that was in twenty fifteen. speaker-1: There's a 2015 yeah, but we're 2013 even when they got 15 seats and he said the threshold the threshold the threshold are the three reasons why we're doing that and they joined together and they had a fairly high turnout Yeah, surprisingly high speaker-0: Actually now it's the record number that the Arab parties have ever gotten in any election. So now they're it's it's nineteen seats. we should remind our listeners and viewers that we're talking about twenty percent of Israel's population, but they were always, always underrepresented in the Israel's parliament because the the voting rate was much lower than the general voting rate. And I think the most amazing thing that we saw at this elections is the unbelievable turnout of Palestinian citizens of Israel going to the ballots and voting. To change what we've seen the last four years. That speaker-1: Yeah. speaker-0: was the most astound outstanding thing. And I think especially we should mention the people who live in unrecognized villages in the Negev, which we had In Belgium been trying to help them for many many years because they don't have accessible ballots and despite the fact that their the polling stations are very far, they went out and voted in record numbers. We should say that usually they vote in the anoplanet villages around forty percent. Now we're talking about more than seventy percent. So they speaker-1: It's it's astounding. and they generally typically are associated with the Ram party. Right, with Mansour Abbas's party. Let it be known that they now assumed to have about seven seats and they made a deal where Joav Sargalovitch of course left Yesh Atid and joined the Ram party being, former very high officer in the police and really dealing with a lot of the violence in the Arab Israeli sector and you know some are asking if that gave like a almost like a kashrut certification to the Ram. party that could then join the coalition. This is foreshadowing for what we're going to talk about. speaker-0: Of course there is one person we should thank for the in incredible increase in the voting rate of the Palestinians of Israel, and this is of course Bengville. And and the fact that, everything that is happening with the crime and gang violence within the Arab communities that was definitely not treated by the this current government, and everything that you know the the racist and extremist government have been doing, it's it's really I think encouraging to see that, you know, Palestinian citizens of Israel who have been going through so much during this last year's did not give up, but actually said we are going to take responsibility, take the future in our hands and go out and vote. And that's I think no pollster actually expected such turnout. Yeah. Yeah. speaker-1: And they really are sitting in a position of power right so let's lay out what happens What is the you know what what happens from here? What are the rules say and just so that we're all on the same page of that? Or think you want to lay that out for us? Yeah speaker-0: Okay, so first of all we have the formal result of the elections are going to publish only next week on November fourth, an interesting date, right? the commemorating the speaker-1: The Gregorian date of Robin's assassination. speaker-0: So that's November 4th. Then there is a week during which the president of Israel, Herzog, is going to consult the representatives of the different parties to decide who is going to give the task. speaker-1: So he invites parties to come and sit with him and say, recommend Gaddi Aizenkot, or we recommend Benjamin Netanyahu to form the coalition. None of the above. speaker-0: So he has a week to do that. and then on November eleventh he's going to assign someone with the task of trying to form a coalition government. speaker-1: You get the first try at... speaker-0: Very easy, very easy task as we'll talk soon. and then you have 28 days to do so. Okay, this person who got the task. The 28 days end on December 9th. and then he can ask for an extension of another 14 days, which brings us to December 23rd. we should remind our listeners that the this current government was inaugurated on December 29th. So it's it's it's been a while. and then speaker-1: 2022. speaker-0: And then if he can, if this person I'll say he because unfortunately we don't have any female leader, if he can't form a government then a different candidate could be assigned the task. speaker-1: So after 45 days, then the president could say, now, Mr. whatever head of other party, you have a chance to do this. And what happens if they can't do it? speaker-0: Then the other person has 28 days with no expens extension. And then if he can do it, then the the a majority of members of Knesset can come to the president and say, okay, we offer a different candidate. And then he has 21 days. I'm sorry, 14 days. And if he can't, then we're going to another round. speaker-1: No elections, which would then be appointed 90 days after that, is that correct? speaker-0: One option is I think the the anti Netanyahu bloc expected or wished for to have right sixty-one members of Knesset opposing Netanyahu, which is without the Arab parties, right? The next best thing, which I think Eisencott and his partners wished for is to have sixty-one members of Knesset, which are the Zionist Jewish parties against Netanyahu, plus Mansoo Abbas's party, who has declared his recognition of a Jewish state as said speaker-1: You have to say hello, Vichin. speaker-0: the pr in in the change government with with Bennett and Lapid, wishing for sixty-one with with Mansoor Abbas, but for now we're talking about fifty-five mandates including Mansoor Abbas. speaker-1: Ram 7 would give that block and let's just say who's in that block so that we understand, right? So we've got the Eisenkot in his party called Yeshar and they have projected 21 seats right now. with Nathalie Bennett and Yair Lapid. They have 12 seats. The Democrats, with Yair Golan and course Rabbi Gideot Kariv, they have 8 seats. And then there's a question, is Yisrael Beitenu, do we count them with Avigdor Lieberman as part of that? speaker-0: Include Israel Baytenu, right, which has now seven, despite the fact that Lieberman has said he's not going to both Lieberman and other factions in the party said they're not going to rely on Arab parties. Yes. but then as you just suggested before, there is an option of basically establishing a minority government, which is less than sixty-one, but still more than the other bloc. speaker-1: Right, how does that work? speaker-0: Well it's just a matter of, y because this government can fall if more, members of Knesset vote against it, right? In a no confidence vote. but as long as it does as long as more members of Knesset support it than oppose it, then you can make it happen. But obviously it's super, super fragile as instable and not going to last long. But I don't speaker-1: I think that would require a guarantee from the Arab parties to say that we will endorse you should it push come to shove and the coalition will fall apart. speaker-0: Yeah, so that's an option of an outside support for instance by the joint list. Yeah. which I think they may be willing to do. the head of the joint list, Yusuf Chabarin has declared that he's willing to do almost whatever it takes to to topple Netanyahu. I think the problem is more on the side of the Jewish Zionist Party. Sure. that both Isencott and Bennett and Lieberman, basically all parties other than the Democrats said they're not going to have a a government. which is which relies on the Arab vote. Specifically I think on the on the joint list on the joint list. And with another speaker-1: Which is different than Ram, specifically the join list, right. speaker-0: So with the numbers now I s I think this scenario of having a minority government has not you know very high chances. I should say that already yesterday, there has started sort of a campaign of a lot of people in the civil society demanding a Jewish Arab political partnership, which I I d I truly believe in. speaker-1: Yes, I received a petition from Yair Golan, the head of the Democratium, to say, now is the time, let's do this, this is what we need for the future. And there have been people calling for that kind of cooperation in the past. But let me ask you another question, because those parties, we mentioned Lieberman, Bennett, Eisencote, not only did they not, you know, did they swear to not join in a coalition with the Arab parties, they also said they wouldn't sit with Netanyahu. with the Khairyidim. speaker-0: Right. And and with it's the numbers go speaker-1: Now, let's, shall we suggest another scenario here? Sure. Yeah. There exists a scenario of the possibility of what we might call a unity government, in which Likud could take its 26, right, add Eisenkot, Lieberman, Yisrael Beitenu, and Naftali Bennett Lapid, the Biachad party, and form a centrist Zionist Jewish coalition. speaker-0: So yeah. I see a huge minus of speaker-1: we've seen that movie before. speaker-0: And I think, you know, the fact that the the anti Netanyahu block is called Anti Netanyahu is not like something accidental, right? That's the whole point. Because the main problem that I think we many of us share is that Netanyahu is the main problem, and that's why he should be removed. He is really the the reason for where we are now, whether it's you know the rising extremism, racism, our you know, security issues, our economy, the the status of Israel you know toward you know the international community and really in every aspect we see that he's just not fit fit to govern not to talk about the corruption I really think he's the problem and and I think you know one of the intentions that the anti-Nathaniel bloc declared is that the first thing they're gonna they're going to do if they have majority is a first a state commission of inquiry. Yep. And the second is speaker-1: which Netanyahu has been preventing for three years. speaker-0: for October seventh. And the second is passing a law to restrict right speaker-1: to impose term limits. speaker-0: because I think the idea is that nobody should stay in power for so long. and By we should say that if we have a majority in the Knesset, which we have, right? in any scenario there is an anti Netanyahu majority in the Knesset, there can be an option to pass such laws, right? And to do other to take other measures once the Knesset is inaugurated, which is going to be in two weeks, right? So this option still exists. obviously it needs to have a corp close cooperation for of all the parties, the anti-Netanyao parties. but speaker-1: And just for information sake, that's considered a caretaker government, which is temporary, that Netanyahu would remain prime minister. In speaker-0: No, so we're not talking about the government. The government still the current government speaker-1: two weeks when that Knesset is sworn in, there has to be a prime minister. speaker-0: yeah, right. It's like a transitory government, yes. And but the Knesset is sort of independent to c you know to start legislating. obviously it depends on many things, including changing the speaker of the Knesset, who now is Fandalikud, Amir Okana. That's actually the first step that they need to do. And they started talking about this with possible candidates after well because speaker-1: say why that's so important because... speaker-0: he actually can decide on the schedule of the Knesset and what to bring in, you know, on the table. speaker-1: He's the gatekeeper of all legislation essentially. speaker-0: Okay. So so this is the first thing and I I I believe this is something they can do. I think they can cooperate it on this. I don't know how far they will go, to pass additional measures such as repealing dangerous legislation, the judicial coup legislation, that all of them declared they're going to do, all the opposition parties and the Arab parties said they're going to support. So it remains to be seen whether they're going to go forward with that. speaker-1: So I just want to be clear and lay this out because know we've gotten some questions about this and it can be quite confusing in that the Knesset based on the results of yesterday's elections the Knesset will be sworn in proportionally with each list getting its number that it you know rightfully won in the elections. However we still won't have a government by then and we won't have people you filling out we won't have a coalition and an opposition and people will not be appointed to ministerial positions as of yet. So there will be a new Knesset with new members sworn in, yet not a government. And I think some people get confused by those things. speaker-0: Confusing. I think we should say if we're talking about different scenarios, we don't the good news is we don't have a scenario that the current government will continue as it is, okay? Because they have so it's important to frame the results as first of all a defeat to the Netanyahu block. Okay, maybe maybe Netanyahu himself has a good result with num you know the number of block speaker-1: showed party, yes, he did very well. speaker-0: has you know decreased dramatically today you know in the twenty two twenty twenty two elections they got sixty four mandates and with Gidon Sao they had sixty eight seats in the Knesset. Now they have fifty three. Maybe it will change to fifty five but that's a huge decrease in the number. So they they don't have a majority okay no matter what. So the scenarios are either some kind of a minority government with the Arab party supporting from the outside, a unity government like you said, or another round of elections. speaker-1: I want to say, I want to pick up on the unity government for a second because I think those of us who were in the anti-Nathanael camp, that would be a hard pill to swallow, I think. And just to say, wait a second, not only are we bringing back Netanyahu, but we've gave him this huge cash-fruits certificate, this huge bill of approval by having those ostensibly center or liberal parties come into joint. I don't know if I would consider Lieberman to be liberal by any chance, except on religion and state issues. But the upside to that, which I could make a case for, is that it would be a clear statement to say we reject both the ultra-orthodox and the ultra-nationalist parties. so Shas Yadid-Torah and Otzma Yudit, the Jewish power party, and Smucrich's religious Zionist party. speaker-0: This is important to say we are pretty certain that Eisencoot, Bennett would not get into a c a unity government with Bank Virgin Smoltwich. So they would be left out. I think unfortunately speaker-1: Right. And they don't need them anymore for the numbers. speaker-0: But I do wanna say that in my view, I don't see a difference, if at all, between the liquid led by Netanyahu and Bang today. I think what we have seen is really speaker-1: And we've seen Likud why you think it stinks, right? So that's a deliberation that I think we need to discuss because who knows if the reaction, you know, it's a big gamble, right? We know what can happen with it. speaker-0: I do I do want to go back to what I mentioned before. That's why I think it's important at this stage to put a lot of public pressure on Isenko to say, listen, Arab votes should count as Jewish voice votes. And that's why a political partnership between Jewish parties and Arab parties is something that should be on the table. And we know it's you know there are different polls about what, you know, the voters of those parties believe in. I think it should be checked again. With I think with Ra'am there is definitely a support. speaker-1: Well, and we have precedent, right, because Ram was in the government, the change government from 21 to 22, even though, know, Naftali Bennett, who became prime minister then, campaigned on a promise that he would not include them. And we all know that Netanyahu had been courting Mansour Abbas for some weeks and months leading up to that election in 22. I'm sorry, in 21. And, you would have invited him. Then, of course, he did a complete 180 and said, absolutely not. You've invited Hamas. the Muslim Brotherhood into Europe, because it is an Islamic party. so, you know, one thing to think about is, you know, do we disclose that and say, Nathaniel, already had, you know, talks with the Arab parties and we're not doing anything, you we the liberal, the anti-Nathaniel camp is not doing anything different than he's doing. I think many of our listeners in North America have a hard time with this discussion. Of course. Let's just spell it out a little bit. speaker-0: Let's not count Jewish votes in America. speaker-1: Right, or they were able to make a collision, but not with the black people's you know, something like that. Is that the same thing? And how does that feel? I mean, that is a, could you imagine such a thing happening? speaker-0: Of course not. And people are have been giving those examples today saying how unbelievable speaker-1: That's right. speaker-0: it is. it's very tragic that we need a lot of courage from a political leader in Israel to actually include our parties in the coalition. By the way, this is what Ben did, right, in twenty twenty one with Monsur Abbas. That was a courageous step to back down from his promises and bring an Arab party into the coalition. I'm speaker-1: And we do have historical precedent for this as well. Let's go back to the 90s for a second, when the Oslo peace agreements and negotiations were on the table. What did Rabin do? speaker-0: Well yeah, he had he had an Arab he both said an Arab minister and he w he relied on the support of the Arab parties weren't speaker-1: Right, in order to have a fragile majority. speaker-0: part of his coalition of supporting from outside. Of course he was criticized for it quite a lot. but yeah. speaker-1: such a fateful decision for the future of country was in fact dependent on ten members of Knesset from the Arab parties. so, you know, people don't, my understanding is that people are a little bit hesitant to return to that model even though it was necessary. speaker-0: I think I I wanna say another thing that's you know pretty pretty pretty depressing. You know, it's we we speaker-1: I'll brace myself. speaker-0: We talked I think before about what are these elections about, right? And we try to say, well, this election should be about October seventh and the lack of State Commission of Inquiry. We said it should be about the fact that ultra Orthodox are not going to the army, about, you know, many, many different things. But eventually, it boiled down to whether you are in favor of having some kind of partnership with Palestinians or whether you promote hatred toward Palestinians and Arabs in general and I Really sad to say that World drove and Netanyahu used it as he always does. He used hate as a tactic, which unfortunately proved very effective. Yeah. He told his voters you have to choose between Yamin or Palestine between being right wing and voting for me, or between surrendering to a Palestinian state, as if you know anybody's now going to create a Palestinian state, and fortunately it's not around the corner. This was the choice he gave his voters, and they bought it. And I saw it with interactions of people who voted for Netanyahu, like I said when I was volunteering yesterday, people are har were driven by hate of Arabs, of Palestinian citizens of Israel and Palestinians in general, and that was what made them vote for Netanyahu. speaker-1: I really want to get into this a bit more because I think this is at the crux of the matter when you people have been texting and calling me from abroad and saying But how could how could people continue to vote for Netanyahu? after everything, forget about the fact that he's still on trial for three counts of corruption, bribery, broken promise, all that stuff, which is still in the background, after his green lighting the most detrimental and devastating legislative agenda with the judicial overhaul, and after the colossal failure of intelligence and preparedness, and not only that, the total breaking of the, what we call in Hebrew, the conceptia of his of arrogant posturing of to say, don't tell me what to do when we know all the warnings that have come out. I'm thinking about just families who are so hurt by this yet people, yet he's got, you know, 26, 27. speaker-0: And we should say that on different cities both next to the Gaza envelope, okay, like Stirot and up north, like Rachmot. speaker-1: We're traditionally called strongholds, right? speaker-0: Likud strongholds, like the numbers haven't changed at all. and that's of course shocking. I think that a lot of people who voted for Netanyahu said two things. First of all, they said, you know, let's not look back, look ahead, and he's the only leader who can protect us in this, you know, very precarious situation. We don't see anybody who can replace him because he has his experience, and Isenko does not have his experience. And the other thing. speaker-1: Despite being chief of staff of the Army and you know all those things, but yeah, okay. speaker-0: Yeah. And the other thing is I think living in like parallel realities saying it's he's not to blame, it's only the army, or if it's not the army then it's Ben de la and Lapid who had a government the year before and if not him they didn't wake him. It's like speaker-1: Which is the story that he spun so well, And you think people just totally bought into that? speaker-0: who are watching channel fourteen which is our Fox News are exposed to a completely different speaker-1: Further to the right than factually. speaker-0: but they essentially showing a different reality than most people right speaker-1: I you could see that clearly with the different exit pulls. know the channel 11, 12 and 13 were relatively close to one another. know one seat here, one seat there and then all of us in channel 14. It's like they're living in a different world. From the final, I mean, once they... speaker-0: there was a huge failure of the of all posters of all the other channels. Sure. So that was actually but but I think that's what d drives people and as I said before especially marking you as different from the other side that you hate, right? Whether it's the Palestinians or the people who are left wing, anybody who's not like you, we hate them. We're going to be with our leader and to stay on who we are. And it means that a lot of secular people and liberal people, you know, on like on religion state issues or people who were enraged about the Kharidim voted for Netanyahu despite the fact that he didn't do anything, right? speaker-1: Well, that's the other thing, and I want to come back to Netanyahu in a second, but I think that's the other thing that when we say what are these elections about, many people that I've spoken with, many Israelis are like, no, this is about one thing and one thing only. Everybody has one thing or sometimes we have more than one only thing that it can be, and it's about the Khairideen. And I think, know, with our, as the Reform Movement, our hyper-focus on our issues of religion and state and the, you know, monopoly of the haridim and the disproportional budgets that go to them, is this about the haridim and their place in society and the willingness by so many in the center to acquiesce to their, you know, perpetual self-aggrandizement and refusal to serve? I mean, is that... speaker-0: We thought it's gonna be about this and I think the opposition government tried for it to be about this, but it wasn't about the Kharadim at all. At at all. we should mention that the Kharedi parties got less less votes. At least a speaker-1: You decreased a little bit, right? speaker-0: little bit and we should remember that we have more and more voters for our Kharedim because of the you know, growing up they speaker-1: High birth rates. Exactly. speaker-0: should have gone up and instead they went down. So that speaker-1: That's actually that's fascinating. That's a really important point. And should we say that there was a third Haredi party that did not even come close to passing? I think they got like 6,000 votes or something like that. speaker-0: How do you speaker-1: by the way, of those 6,000, most of them were from Tel Aviv. A few from speaker-0: Yeah, I'm sure there were also speaker-1: Beit Shemesh here and there, but mostly protest votes for them. speaker-0: And we should also mention that the fact that the Likud has remained rather large came at the expense of Ben Vil Smotrich, who expected more votes and and did not. They were, they're not small. It's too much. So so I think it was not eventually about the Khalidim. I think eventually it was about very personally about who you want to lead the country, Netanyahu or Isencot. And despite the fact that all the polls show that more Israelis say that Isencot. is more fit to be a government at you know at the you know it's the money time you know people said speaker-1: So with integrity is one with military experience is someone Like a son that sadly yeah, right speaker-0: People went especially the right wing people, preferred the Netanyahu and then the other thing, like I said, which is the anti the racist rhetoric of Netanyahu that unfortunately a lot of his voters basically bought. I think it's that's a very very that's very bad news for Israel. speaker-1: Do you think that President Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu played a factor in this at all? I think it's minuscule, right? speaker-0: I I don't I don't think it has. and I think one more thing we should mention is that when we look at the maps and which cities support us which, you know, whether the opposition or the coalition, it's really interesting to see that there is a y a huge polarization. I mean it's not news, right? That Israeli society is polarized, but of course Tel Aviv speaker-1: And coming from America, where on election night we see states that become blue or states that become red, it's also here, right? You were pointing out... speaker-0: It's yeah, it's exactly the same. So we see Tel Aviv with seventy-five percent voting for the opposition. Yeah. And Jerusalem with sixty-seven percent voting for the coalition. So it's like two different countries in speaker-1: Despite there being a high Arab population vote in Jerusalem, and I don't want to get into East Jerusalem Palestinians. speaker-0: I tell a story that yesterday after I finished my shift at the ob as the observer on ballot, I took a cab back home. And of course my driver was from East Jerusalem. And of course he he's not he can't vote. Not voting. so we had you know a lot of discussion. He said actually that f some of his family members did gain citizenship and voted. but he said you know it's like what's the point? because he seems that nobody, you know, takes them into account. speaker-1: expressing his disillusionment with the press. speaker-0: obviously a huge problem in Israel but we're seeing of course Haifa with a majority for the opposition and up north as we said Girachmuna which and it's the rotin of Fakim which are more to the to the to the coalition so it's it's very interesting speaker-1: Yeah, I started off thinking we're so deeply impacted by October 7th and even you know some of the keep it seem and and I and I this is a curious thing just as a side detail that I saw in some of the keep it seem like Barry and not halos a Shockingly low for turnout. I don't know if that's what people haven't moved back yet. Yeah, that's because speaker-0: some of them have not relocated back. you know, maybe it is also sort of I don't know, some kind of fear and I don't know. I think it's I think it's because some of them have not moved back and are still evacuated. I I think we are in now in a in a period of a lot of uncertainty. and I think a lot of people in the liberal camp are in a state of shock, despair, anger and frustration. And I think we should need you know we should give this feeling some place because we've worked so hard to get speaker-1: absolutely. speaker-0: But we should a lot of people think okay but let's frame it as it should be which is 5367 so it's maybe you know it's very difficult to create an alternative but Netanyahu his block has lost okay and it's important to remind ourselves that what we have seen the last four years will not continue. Okay, so if we're looking for some good news, that's good news. So we've seen large number of Israelis saying we don't want the same, and that's important. speaker-1: That is immensely important and I think there can really be some silver linings here in that the other The third or fourth only thing that this election is about is the story of the Israeli Arabs or the Palestinian Israeli citizens who came out, did, as Netanyahu accused them of doing, coming out in droves and saying, no, we are invested, we care, we want to be represented. What do you think the impact of that is going to be? mean, can this sort of political representation translate into sort of a reversing of their feeling disenfranchisement? and further involving them in the politics and the decision making and eventually policy of the state. speaker-0: So again I th I I'm afraid the scenario of actually having them as part of a next government is not I'm not sure it's plausible. I I wish it would. I think we should put a lot of pressure, you know, including the reform women talking about how of course equal citizenship means you you know, count them as you count other citizens. so I think we should not, you know, give up and say, you know, this scenario of having a Jewish Arab partnership in politics is not going to happen. We should talk about it, we should bring it to the surface and not accept the narrative of Netanyahu saying we have one group of citizens and another group of citizens. I think we should exactly speaker-1: subgroup of yeah speaker-0: I think we should talk about this, but I'm not sure it's gonna happen and I wonder what this the impact of this will be, right? Because they came and voted because they wanted to make a difference. speaker-1: want you to tell us right now what the impact is going to be. speaker-0: So I think so I I I I'm not sure if, you know, they're taking the synop an optimistic message because if they're not, you know counted as as Jewish voters then why why bother vote? and we've seen this, right, in previous elections that the voting rate was very low, including in the last elections, because that was the feeling that maybe in the municipal elections we'll go and vote because it could make a difference. On national elections it's not going to make a difference. So so so I don't know, but I I I I think it's important to say we're not giving up on this. You know, I think we sh push for this scenario and talk about this and reject what Netanyahu has been trying to do unfortunately by the way many media outlets have adopted right we've seen over and over the last few months in the polls always three blocks Netanyahu bloc the anti-Netanyao blocks and the Arab parties as if they're not part of the anti-Netanyao blocks and I actually interviewed in my Hebrew podcast one of the polls and I told him listen you are not only reflecting the reality you are creating it when you're actually putting them in a different you know slot because I think speaker-1: that's a critically important point, I think. And that's sort of what I was trying to get to earlier, that Israelis sort of take that for granted, that it's those three different blocks. And I think that, you you said it's 67 to 53 right now, and we need to insert that into the lexicon or the sort of common frame of mind here. that, that's what it has to be. yet. We still have what I might call in fancy Yiddish a plunter, okay, in that we have Lieberman and Bennett who will not do it. And that is going to eventually, I mean, I'm not a prophet, but that could prevent a coalition from being formed. speaker-0: We we should remind our listeners that in the change government, okay, it was not long ago, it was twenty twenty-one, the Jewish parties had fifty-eight mandates. Okay, they did not have a majority. So with Raam, with Manasura Bas's party, they had sixty-two. Right. But they relied on him for majority. So we have a precedent, right? and speaker-1: That's right, yeah. And here some people say, well, that's Ram and that's a little bit different because of two factors. One, the Jovsegolevich factor, which kind of gives it more legitimacy. And two, that he has come out and said that he recognizes the Jewish state and the nation state of the Jewish people. And I think we, as the Reform Movement, you know, don't agree with Ram on lots of issues like LGBTQ rights and you know those women women right you know of course like you know so like he became our best friend very quickly same with Lieberman and we may agree with him on you know pushing back against the Haredi monopoly but not necessarily on security or know speaker-0: I think it's true that d the politicians promised this thing. We know that promises in politics are breaking broken. And I think the deeper thing is whether what message are you you know, conveying to the public, and how can we change this, you know, narrative of treating Palestinian citizens of Israel differently. and so, you know, w we'll we'll have to wait and see, we'll have to work on it to put public pressure on it and it's gonna take some time. I mean that's for sure. speaker-1: as we're thinking about sort of the implications and the ramifications for this, let's talk about a very real scenario that the president of the country, Herzog, could go to Netanyahu and say, are the largest party, vakasha, please give us, know, give your attempt at forming a coalition. And if Netanyahu remains prime minister, For now, I think he's going to his 119th year as prime minister. I'm kidding, you Seems like that, yeah. Right, right. He has been prime minister for longer than any other prime minister, know, spanning three decades. And people who are now out of the army don't remember any other prime minister. What are the implications for that, both here in Israel and for Jewish communities abroad? Let's talk about it. speaker-0: Let's take a step back. I don't remember if we said at the beginning of the episode. The president gives the task to the person who has the most chances and speaker-1: Endorsements, yeah. speaker-0: most n no, not even according to his discretion, the most chances of forming a government. Okay? So it does not matter who is the head of the largest party. That is something speaker-1: Fair, that's a good point. Thank you. speaker-0: that matters on our on a mental thing how it's being perceived psychologically but it does not matter for the president okay so I don't believe Herzog is going to ask Netanyahu. I think could either ask N Isenco to or to you know bring both of them and say listen why don't you try unity government? And if we're talking about the unity government, by the way I I I I hate this phrase. I mean it's okay, never mind. speaker-1: Yeah, it just means people from, right and left together. And by the way, the other parties that might be inclined to that we mentioned earlier, know, Lieberman, Bennett, Eisenkotz, they're not exactly left wing. let it be said. mean, speaker-0: to left. speaker-1: Lieberman, think is more right wing than Netanyahu on certain issues. speaker-0: on yeah on security issues but I think that if we have such a government it's not going to be the same government. Okay? So I'm not say I I think it's I'm I'm I think it's a terrible scenario. I wish it would not happen, but we should be fair in saying that I think that the government where we have a moderate moderate factors and we have Bang Vin Smotric outside is a different government. I think that over the years we've had Netanyahu doing some bad things and leading bad governments but he had moderate factor speaker-1: right. It's a barack at one point and like, yeah. speaker-0: I remember even Kahlon who was in his government and locked some crazy initiatives even to weaken the Supreme Court. So speaker-1: Right. speaker-0: I'm definitely not a fan of the scenario, but I think it's different. Okay? So I think it's not going to be as bad. I don't know whether it's going to improve Israel's, status among speaker-1: We could chalk that up to it being the lesser of evils. speaker-0: Yeah. Yes, yes. It's hard it's hard for me to say. speaker-1: TARGET. speaker-0: I think because we we despite the fact that we knew the numbers don't add up, right? This one said they're not sitting with Arabs, this one said we're not sitting with Khaladim, this one said we're not sitting with Nathaniel and nothing adds up, we really hoped for, you know, higher numbers for the opposition. And that's speaker-1: of course. speaker-0: why it's very hard. you know, we should say it very frankly, it's very hard. it was very hard to work wake this morning and to see the numbers. I should say that in the morning the numbers were even, you know More devastating. Now we are you know now instead of 7050 we are at 6753. Yeah. So it's it's you know it's a shock, you know, and I think a lot of Israelis are exhausted not only after the elections, but after four years of of struggles for our democracy, for the hostages, for ending the war, you know, with so many partners outside of Israel, it's it's exhausting. so I think we should take some time to sort of breathe. speaker-1: Take a breath here. Yeah. Well, I'll just say that I am also worried about the view from abroad, and that there so many people who were really invested in saying, like, no, look, we do think change is possible, and we want Israel to see it another day and to, you know, open up with... different parties being represented that have shared values of us. And I think that this is a gut punch for many people to say, wait a second, how can this be as we said earlier, but also that people, I'm worried that people are gonna walk away from Israel totally to see, look, we told you and this is getting to be more of a dictatorship. Even though we think that there were free and fair elections. speaker-0: And we should say one of our concerns was that for the integrity of the elections and we should say that as the facts that we know now, the elections went really okay. You know, there were maybe attempts, you know, during election day, but they were blocked. Yes. And speaker-1: Including one potential guy who wanted to stab the head of the journalist party. Aside from that, you know. speaker-0: But no but but the votes that were cast, like we don't know of any like great fraud or violence preventing voters from coming to the ballot the speaker-1: Right. speaker-0: polling stations, which we really feared, especially in Arab cities. So thank God that went as it is and Arabs could vote and exercise the right to vote. Now we need it. speaker-1: No, there is something to be said for the fact that these elections went off without a hitch and we may be disappointed with the results, but they were free and fair elections. When we look at other countries in this neighborhood, you know, we don't always see that. speaker-0: I should say about, the fear of actually peeping, pull p push pulling back I think that we should obviously we are going to continue the work that we have done and in this or that scenario I think our voice is more important than maybe in a different scenario that we wanted to happen. I think we should remind ourselves and our listeners that so many Israelis voted for a different Israel and want a different future. and you know we are we will really continue to fight for you know the values that we believe in, of course, our faith in Those values just strengthened and not weakened. we know we have a lot of work to do, I would say, not only on the short term, but on the long term, talking about education, democratic values, and human rights and liberal Judaism, and this is something we which is on our work plan for next year because we know that there are deep currents that needed to be treated. Whether you know we spoke about hatred and racism, we need to tackle them on many, many fronts because you know there's like a huge, huge challenge ahead. speaker-1: I people voted on those exact issues. Yeah. So let's sum up, I think. It has been a roller coaster over the last 48 hours, and let's not get into despair just yet. So what I think we want to sum up and say is that, OK, there is a strong possibility of building an anti-Netanyahu bloc, which would include the joint list and Ram as the two Arab parties that would have Netanyahu be pushed out. including all the members of his bloc, the ultra-orthodox and the ultra-nationalists. I think from our point of view that would be sort of the sunny scenario and a scenario that we're advocating for. There's another scenario with the unity government and we're hoping to avoid going back to... speaker-0: By the way, there was a scenario that was spoken about before the elections, not no much since yesterday, that some kind of a deal of a unity government will include Netanyahu stepping off, right, and having a parole, but since speaker-1: and having his trial canceled. speaker-0: He he got, such results I I don't think he will, even speaker-1: there's no way that he would take that. Maybe in exchange for a rotation, in which after two and a half years he would then bow out gracefully, if anyone can imagine that. And of course we know how he sort of throws a stick in the spokes of a rotational agreement. speaker-0: I wanna I wanna thank you, Josh. Coming to Israel to be here in this days, I think it's really meaningful and we also shared some time in the olive harvest in the West Bank last speaker-1: Yeah speaker-0: which seems like a million years ago, but it's speaker-1: Long time ago and it didn't make any headlines because it was very quiet that day. speaker-0: Really it was amazing and I think having so many Israelis and just coming from abroad is really heartwarming. And I I would I should also say that having such support and as you say interest and so many people have been invested from outside of Israel in our elections is really meaningful. and I wanna, thank everybody who have re helped us and gave warm words and supported us and you know, d to do the good fight because you we're not backing up. We're speaker-1: And I think that, you know, your encouragement that all is not lost yet and there is still what to do and I was feeling really hopeful and I see this not as devastating but as a setback and we are, you know, flying in to join you in the work that you're doing day in and day out and that is really critical and that you must find a way, you know, take a day or two, you know, but then let's get right back out there. speaker-0: And looking forward to your elections on your side of the ocean. speaker-1: Yes, I will be flying back and voting next week. I love voting. I love voting. I do it every week. Thank you very much. I'm in. in. in. hopefully the next time we talk, we'll hear some better news. Yes. speaker-0: Conversations like this are exactly why we started this podcast. This podcast exists because we believe Israel can be better for all who live here and for all who care about it from afar, before or after the elections. But that takes honest conversation and it takes partnership. And if these conversations are important to you, please share this episode and help us keep the conversation growing. speaker-1: To stay up to date, subscribe on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you want to help us grow, make an engaging post on social media, or leave a five-star review, maybe something along the lines of, until I listened to the Pluralist podcast, I really just took it for granted that there were three different blocks. There was the opposition, the coalition, and the AeroVotes. And how wrong that is, and we need to really try and reframe the conversation as opposition and coalition, or the internet, y'all block. And you don't have to use that verbatim. But we've loved it if you would share this episode with someone who should be part of this conversation. And you know what? We have a lot of work to do, and so we need help and resources. you why don't you sponsor an episode like this of the Pluralist Podcast and we will be here back for you next week and many weeks after that as we continue in this work. speaker-0: Bye bye. Noam Zuckerman: you