Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 111 - 9/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 111 - 9/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 111 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
0:36
week and we are now just 24 hours away from the beginning of
0:41
the madness. That's right, NFL Week 1, the
0:44
opener here between the Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs
0:47
coming up for tomorrow. And then it's off to the races
0:50
with week one of the NFL. So we got a lot to talk about on
0:53
today's pod. I'm going to call today's pod.
0:55
Half of it is going to be a prep day, a research day, a homework
0:58
day in terms of specifically looking at the NFL, how to
1:01
attack the NFL, as well as week one NFL betting systems.
1:05
Because I have an overarching philosophy when it comes to
1:08
betting the NFL, going contrarian, looking for sharp
1:11
line moves, looking at low bets, higher dollars, bet discrepancy
1:14
plays, as well as leaning on my system matches.
1:16
But in particular, when it comes to week one, we have some
1:19
fantastic systems to lean on. So I'm going to give you those
1:22
systems. I'm also going to give you a
1:23
bunch of teams right now that are catching my eye in terms of
1:26
system matches, some that we can either play now or ask ourselves
1:31
the question, hey, should we bet it now because the lines going
1:33
to get worse? Or should we wait because it's a
1:35
three and maybe we can get the 3 1/2 with the hook or we should
1:38
grab the four now because it looks like it's going down to 3
1:40
1/2. So it's a big football NFL prep
1:43
day. And then we'll talk about some
1:45
system matches for tonight because we have MLB as well
1:49
tonight and I have a four pack of MLB sweats hoping to catch a
1:53
few plays on the diamond. But it's going to be a lot of
1:55
football NFL and then it's going to be a lot of Major League
1:58
Baseball. Now looking toward last night.
2:01
Unfortunately, our, our rough patch here, we're stuck in the
2:03
ditch. 1 and 4 - 3.3 units. We had a nice hit with the
2:07
Orioles. No sweat there.
2:08
Would they win 9? Nothing laid the -1 1/2.
2:11
They covered the, the run line there.
2:13
But then the Yankees. Oh my God, how many times have
2:17
has Clay Holmes personally hurt you?
2:20
Clay Holmes blew the save last night.
2:22
Yankees are up 4:00 to 1:00, then four to three gives up a
2:24
walk off Grand Slam. I honestly feel like that's
2:27
maybe the third or fourth time where I bet the Yankees and Clay
2:30
Holmes has screwed me. So Clay Holmes, you're, you're,
2:33
you're off the island. You've been voted off the
2:34
island. The Royals couldn't come
2:36
through. And that one was kind of a red
2:38
flag because the Orioles are sorry.
2:40
The Royals had a good sharp line move.
2:41
Then there's a lot of buy back that went the other way on
2:44
Cleveland. So the rules at one point got
2:46
down to like even money minus one O 5 and then late steam at
2:49
Cleveland and a couple. You guys reach out to me and
2:51
say, hey, what do you do here? I just stick with my original
2:54
bet because to me, if you better play, you want CLV.
2:58
If it goes the other way, dance with the one who brung you.
3:00
I'm not going to bet out of it. Not going to double down.
3:02
I'm just going to stick with my bet and probably got what I
3:04
deserve losing Kansas City. But really the coup de grace
3:07
last night, it wasn't just the Yankees blowing that lead for us
3:10
and costing us a win in baseball.
3:12
It was the WNBA because I have an announcement to make ready.
3:15
Here's my announcement. I am done betting.
3:18
WNBA last night was really the tipping point for me when we
3:22
were looking at the Washington Dallas under 175.
3:26
It landed 176 aces, sky over 164, lands 161.
3:32
So I take it over and it goes way under or not way under.
3:35
I mean, both these lines are closed.
3:37
Tells you how good the odds makers are.
3:38
I take A and over, it comes up short.
3:41
Take it under it flies over so WNBA it was fun while it lasted,
3:46
but with great NFL college football betting upon us NBA, I
3:50
am officially putting a fork in the WNBA again.
3:54
If you want to continue to play it, you guys have those rhythm
3:57
system matches we can lean on. You can continue to use your
3:59
market analysis, but I I don't know how many more times I can
4:02
bet WNBA and have my heart ripped out and danced the beat.
4:05
So WNBA, you're voted off the island just like play Holmes in
4:09
the Yankees. But with that being said, as
4:11
always, whether you go one and four, four and one, I hope you
4:14
guys know by now the method should never change.
4:17
Sharp contrarian plays, data-driven plays, system
4:19
matches, flat bedding, not parlaying.
4:22
We're going to continue to stick to the model.
4:24
And this is with, you know, sports betting in general.
4:27
Every day is a challenge. If we go one and four yesterday,
4:30
which is what happened, it's a challenge to have a winning day
4:32
today. If we went four and one
4:34
yesterday, the challenge would be to produce another winning
4:36
day. But I first want to start off
4:38
with before we get to baseball, the NFL, because really it's the
4:42
calm before the storm. NFL officially kicks off
4:44
tomorrow. You mentioned that Baltimore,
4:46
Kansas City game. I'm still looking at maybe
4:48
playing Kansas City there because currently Kansas City is
4:50
a fade the trendy dog play. They open around -2 1/2 to up to
4:54
-3 Publix on Baltimore, yet lines going to Kansas City.
4:58
I'm looking at maybe a Kansas City money line play, but I'm
5:01
going to wait until tomorrow. Let's see how the market moves.
5:03
I want to make sure Kansas City stays contrarian.
5:06
That's where my head's at in terms of the opener.
5:09
But I really want to talk about macro betting systems, like
5:13
overall philosophies and what systems we're going to lean on.
5:16
And then I'm going to give you a bunch of system matches right
5:18
now that are flashing in green lights for us to play.
5:21
So I want to take a step back and give you my overall approach
5:24
to the NFL. Now, when it comes to bet in the
5:26
NFL, many of you have been with me for many, many years at this
5:30
point. My first year at Sports
5:31
Insights, my first job in the industry was 2011.
5:34
I remember the Bruins just won the Cup.
5:36
And that's really where my sports betting journey got my
5:39
foot in the door in the industry.
5:40
And it's all moved on from there.
5:43
And you probably maybe been following different pods betting
5:45
Hangouts my written my written work right now for visen.com.
5:51
So maybe this is a lot of rehashing of what we already
5:54
know and love again, but market moves, reverse line moves,
5:58
playing a lot of dogs, playing a lot of unders.
6:01
But I want to give you in particular the thought process
6:03
behind it and then give you the systems themselves.
6:05
So when it comes to betting NFL, to me, the first thing you got
6:09
to think about are dogs and unders because the NFL is the
6:12
most heavily bet sport by far. Nothing comes close.
6:15
We're up to nearly 40 states that have legalized.
6:17
So this every year becomes a even bigger participation from
6:21
the betting public who's probably never bet NFL before
6:24
and they're going to give it a shot for the first time.
6:26
So just by betting against the public, it's very simple.
6:29
That's my starting point. It's a huge public bias sport.
6:33
And what does the public want to do?
6:34
They want to bet favorites. They want to bet overs.
6:36
They want to bet overs because they want to root for points.
6:38
It's more fun to root for touchdowns versus you know, you
6:41
know, punts and you know, series that stall out and you got a any
6:46
results in no points. It's much more fun to root for
6:49
touchdowns. However, odds makers know this.
6:51
They'll shade these totals upward.
6:53
Creates opportunity to buy low and take unders.
6:56
Also with dogs, public loves to bet favorites because again, if
6:59
you're going to bet your hard earned money on a game, you're
7:01
going to lean on toward that. You want to bet on the better
7:03
team, the safer play, which would be the favorite They're
7:05
expected to win. But remember, when it comes to
7:08
ATS, we only care about who covers.
7:10
We don't care about who wins. So here is where it gets
7:14
interesting. Since 2016, a big sample size
7:18
here. Dogs in the NFL in the regular
7:20
season are 1056 and 987. So they've won 1056 or covered
7:28
1056 games. They've lost 987 against the
7:32
spread. That's 52%.
7:33
It's pretty much break even. Remember 52.38 is your break
7:37
even point, but with the juice the other way, betting favorites
7:40
48%, you're way down. You're a huge loser taking
7:43
favorites. But here's where it gets really
7:45
cool. If you isolate just week one of
7:49
the NFL regular season since 2016, dogs are 71 and 53 against
7:54
the spread 57% with an 11% ROI. So dogs overall are a smart bet
8:01
much more than favorites, but you see a 5% ATS increase in
8:06
terms of dogs performance overall versus what they do in
8:10
week 1. Now, because the public loves
8:12
favorites, it's the most popular sport here.
8:14
The NFL legalization is spreading just by betting and
8:18
leaning on a lot of dogs like I'll, I'll probably venture to
8:21
say 80% of my bets in the NFL are going to be dogs.
8:25
The only angle there to bet against the dog will be fading
8:28
trendy dogs, which I'll get to that in a second.
8:30
There's actually 2 on the board, one's Kansas City.
8:32
I'll give you another one here in a second, but the thing with
8:36
kind of playing dogs is that you don't actually want to play
8:38
every single dog because are we going to bet, you know, 15 games
8:42
in week 1 and take every dog? Well, I hope you end up
8:44
profitable, but the goal is to isolate specific situations
8:48
where dogs do very well. So here's where it gets even
8:51
better. Playing dogs in week one who
8:54
missed the playoffs the previous year.
8:56
Those teams since 2016 have gone 54 and 39 against the spread,
9:00
58% with a 12% ROI. Now, why is that important?
9:04
I think it's important to know whenever you talk a betting
9:06
system, you can overfit something and have a great
9:09
record, but it doesn't have a good theory, doesn't have a
9:11
good, you know, reason behind it.
9:13
It probably isn't going to be predictive or valuable.
9:16
What I like about this one is playing dogs who missed the
9:18
postseason the previous year. You got to think about the
9:20
public. By the way, my allergies are
9:23
killing me. I took a COVID test today and I
9:25
was negative but I feel like crap today so I don't know if
9:27
anyone else if I'm sniffling or it sounds bad through the
9:30
through the pod but I'm struggling pounding an
9:32
emergency. Anyway.
9:34
Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous year.
9:36
Why is that a good starting point?
9:37
Because the public remembers If you're a good or bad team from
9:40
last year, the public bias seeps in.
9:42
If you missed the playoffs, you're probably a bad team.
9:44
Public doesn't want to play you. But in in the kind of the the
9:48
opposite of that. You want to buy low on those
9:50
teams that don't make the postseason because they're
9:51
undervalued. Secondly, Rd. dogs in week 1,
9:56
public loves favorites, but the overvalue home field advantage.
9:58
Home field used to be pretty much always three points.
10:01
Now a lot of research shows it's like one or two points really.
10:05
Since COVID we've seen home field really get decreased.
10:08
But playing Rd. dogs in week 146 and 29 against the spread, 61
10:13
percent, 19% ROI since 2016. The best system match here in
10:19
week one are divisional dogs. Two teams from the same division
10:23
take the dog. Those teams are 30 and 14
10:25
against the spread 68 percent 31% ROI since 2016.
10:31
So with that in mind, here are the teams that are popping right
10:35
now. First one is the Carolina
10:37
Panthers. Carolina Panthers are on the
10:38
road at the New Orleans Saints here let me add this to before I
10:42
give you all these system matches, you don't just want to
10:44
blindly play systems. You want to apply the systems
10:47
with what the market is doing. So when when I'm looking at, I
10:52
kind of go the other way kind of because what I do is I look
10:54
first at the line movement, the bat splits and then combine that
10:57
with my system matches. You can go system matches,
11:00
market or market system matches. But whole point being is you
11:03
know, you really want to have the market moving toward the
11:07
team with the system match because you want to marry the
11:09
past with the present. The present is the market data
11:12
today, the past or the betting system matches over this big
11:15
sample size since 2016. So the Panthers, guys, I'm
11:19
looking at Panthers +4 New Orleans open as a 5 point home
11:23
favorite. Publix playing New Orleans,
11:26
they're getting around 60% of bets if the line is down, Saints
11:29
-5 to -4 so that is a good reverse line move.
11:33
Publix on Saints, Lions going to Carolina.
11:35
So the market is telling us smart money took Carolina.
11:38
Now the Panthers are only getting around 40% of spread
11:41
bets, but 80% of spread dollars. That's one of the biggest low
11:45
bets, higher dollars discrepancy on the board and the Panthers
11:48
would match Rd. dog, divisional dog dog who missed the playoffs
11:51
the previous year. So boom, we've now identified
11:54
Carolina as a sharp bet. Next one, look at the Raiders.
11:59
Raiders are on the road at the LA Chargers.
12:02
Chargers open this game around a 3 1/2 point.
12:04
Favorite Publix playing Chargers.
12:07
They love Harbaugh, get the lines down to three.
12:09
Now this one, I would wait on it because if you like Vegas, you
12:12
can probably shop around and get a 3 1/2 because some shops are
12:15
juiced up toward the Chargers. But I'm looking at Raiders 3
12:18
1/2. They're only getting around 42%
12:20
of spread bets, yet the line moved in their favor.
12:23
They are a road dog, divisional dog dog who missed the playoffs
12:26
the previous season. Next one that really caught my
12:29
eye. And boy, this is a hazmat dog
12:31
because it looks terrible, yet it's popping for system matches.
12:35
Talk about the Indianapolis Colts culture at home against
12:38
the Houston Texans. We open this game kind of a
12:41
short price. You know, this was, you know,
12:44
basically Houston -1 1/2 - 1 - 2 on the road.
12:49
Now it's up to Houston -2 1/2 - 3.
12:52
So we've reached the key number here with CJ Stroud in Houston.
12:56
The angle here, though, there really isn't an element of smart
12:59
money. There's no reverse line move.
13:01
But this is a pure contrarian play.
13:04
The Colts are only getting 17% of spread bets.
13:08
They are the number one contrarian play of the week,
13:11
more than 80%. Eighty 3% of spread bets to be
13:14
exact around Houston. So I'm looking at the Colts with
13:18
the key number of plus 3. They're the number one
13:20
contrarian play and they would match as a divisional dog.
13:24
Not a road dog, but a divisional dog and a dog who missed the
13:27
playoffs the previous year. Two more for you and then I'll
13:30
give you my favorites that are Poppin Titans.
13:33
Anyone want to sweat the Titans? Titans on the road at Chicago,
13:37
the open getting plus 4 1/2 Publix all over the Bears.
13:40
Bears are currently getting upwards of 65% of bets, yet the
13:45
lines moving toward Tennessee plus 4 1/2 down to four and some
13:48
shops are juiced up like it may get down to 3 1/2.
13:51
So if you like Tennessee, you actually may want to play this
13:54
one sooner rather than later. The plus 4 because pay attention
13:57
to the juice. Tennessee's plus 4 -. 115 tells
14:00
us. Again, it may get down to 3 1/2,
14:03
but you can bet against Chicago, who's on Hard Knocks and Caleb
14:06
Williams and the Doones and a lot of buzz over the offseason.
14:09
But Tennessee is contrarian. The lines moving in their favor
14:13
and they would match as a road dog and then the other system I
14:17
have here, I didn't mention it, but when you have two teams who
14:19
both missed the playoffs the previous year, the dog is 62%
14:23
against the spread since 2016. So Rd. dog week one dogs, dog
14:27
who missed the postseason all matching with Tennessee.
14:30
Next one for you, Washington Commanders.
14:33
Commanders are on the road at Tampa Bay.
14:35
Tampa Bay open, this game around -4 this line is now down to
14:39
Tampa Bay -3 1/2 or even -3 Now that's normal because 60% of
14:45
bets are going Bucks. But Lions going to Washington.
14:48
And if you look at the system matches here, you'd be a week
14:50
one dog with the Commanders, Week 1 Rd. dog, Week one dog who
14:53
missed the playoffs the previous year.
14:56
So that would match on Washington.
14:58
So overall, we're going to look at dogs unders a lot.
15:03
Really what I love our primetime dogs and primetime unders, they
15:05
get even better. But in particular, week one
15:08
dogs, that's really the spot where they bark the loudest.
15:11
And we just identified Panthers, Raiders, Colts, Titans, and
15:14
Commanders as some of our top system matches here.
15:17
Now, will every dog cover this week?
15:21
I would love that. That's what I'm rooting for, but
15:23
not the trendy dogs. So I just mentioned Kansas City.
15:27
We'll see how that plays out. I'll have my official play.
15:29
Best bet on tomorrow's pod, which most likely at this point
15:34
will be Kansas City money line because Publix Baltimore.
15:36
Yet lines going to Kansas City -2 1/2 to -3 they're contrarian
15:41
with a low bets higher dollars bet split.
15:43
But also there's one other game that caught my eye.
15:46
Dallas and Cleveland. The the Dallas Cowboys America's
15:49
team on the road at the Browns. Notice a really sharp move
15:53
toward Cleveland. This game opened Dallas very
15:56
short, like 1 or 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
15:59
We flipped all the way to Cleveland.
16:01
Now -2 1/2 and Cleveland's just up like they may even go to -3
16:05
Why is that important? Because public is on Cowboys.
16:08
Cowboys are getting nearly 70% of bets, yet the line isn't
16:12
going toward Dallas. The line's going toward
16:14
Cleveland. So why the odds makers?
16:16
You know, why are they continuing to move this line
16:18
toward Cleveland when majority of bets are on Dallas?
16:21
Now think of it this way. Why the odds makers giving you a
16:24
+ 2, two and a half, even a three here?
16:26
Maybe on Cleveland or on Dallas, I should say.
16:29
That's a trendy dog. Ravens are a trendy dog.
16:32
Dallas is a trendy dog. I'm looking at Cleveland
16:34
possibly on the money line. That's also a really good
16:37
contrarian play. That's the most heavily bet 425
16:39
game in that late game window. So don't expect to, you know,
16:44
you know, be an NFL betting expert on the, you know, day
16:47
before the Thursday kickoff. But these are the things we're
16:50
going to talk about all season long on the pod.
16:52
This is the blueprint that's treated me pretty decently in my
16:56
in my sports betting media career sharp contrarian line
17:00
movement system matches. That's really my angle with
17:04
mostly leaning dogs and unders, except fading trendy dogs.
17:07
So I'll give you some of these bets officially.
17:09
Let's give it a couple more days.
17:11
Again, there are a couple teams that we talked about where the
17:12
line might be getting worse or falling.
17:15
Maybe you want to grab those now or maybe you just want to sit
17:17
and wait it out. A great kind of piece of advice
17:21
that one of my mentors told me back in the day was bet
17:24
favorites early and bet dogs late.
17:26
So as a contrarian, better betting a lot of dogs.
17:28
Typically, I wait until later in the year or sorry, later in the
17:31
week to place my bet unless I feel like, hey, I better grab
17:35
that hook now before it falls. I better grab that, you know, 7
17:38
before it gets down to 6 1/2, that sort of thing.
17:41
But that is a crash course in an NFL betting week 1.
17:46
Now over to some sweats for tonight because Major League
17:49
Baseball has been a bit of a disappointment here recently.
17:53
I feel like we're getting into the, you know, crazy volatile
17:56
part of the final, you know, finale of the regular season.
17:59
But I ain't quitting. I'm like, I'm like the I'm like
18:02
Leo DiCaprio and Wolf of Wall Street.
18:04
I ain't going nowhere. So few bets here for tonight.
18:07
I got four of them. See if we can get three or more
18:10
Baltimore Orioles at home against the White Sox Now.
18:14
Pitch a match up here for tonight.
18:15
White Sox come in obviously terrible.
18:18
Looking to set the all time record for losses.
18:21
We had a great opportunity last night going with Baltimore on
18:24
the run line -1 1/2 cut that price in half.
18:27
They came through for us. So I'm going to do the same
18:29
thing tonight, guys. I'm going to go Baltimore.
18:31
I got him at -1 1/2 at -180. Now, first thing you notice here
18:36
is a big move toward Baltimore. Baltimore open this game around
18:40
a -, 300 favorite. They're all the way up to -370
18:44
Some shops even going closer to -400 so big movement in favor of
18:48
Baltimore. Now pitching match up here
18:51
hopefully favors the OS. They're going to go with Albert
18:54
Suarez. He's seven and four, 3.14 ERA.
18:58
Jonathan Cannon goes for the White Sox, he's 2 and 94.7 O
19:02
ERA. But if you look at the month of
19:04
August, Suarez is really good. 1.97 ERA and six starts, Canon
19:09
6.31 ERA and five starts. And I'm really bank.
19:14
Same thing as last is kind of the wash, rinse, repeat.
19:17
Baltimore's offense, hitting two 52208 homers, 7 O six runs
19:22
scored versus the White Sox, hitting two 19109 homers, 423
19:27
runs scored. So again, I think with the White
19:29
Sox, if you want to bet them down the stretch, these money
19:31
line prices are outrageous, but it gives us an opportunity to go
19:35
run line. So I'm going to Baltimore -1
19:38
1/2. I got them at -180 And oh by the
19:41
way, our friends at Juice Reel Robo Jackson, the hardest
19:44
working AI bought, he has a best bet on Baltimore -1 1/2.
19:49
Next bet for you, Houston at Cincinnati.
19:53
Now pitching match up here for tonight we have Spencer
19:56
Araghetti, the righty going for Houston.
19:58
He's seven and eleven 4.63 ERA. He'll be opposed by the ready
20:02
Nick Martinez, who's six and six with a 3.78 ERA.
20:06
What have we seen across the market here?
20:08
Good sharp move toward Houston. Houston open this game as low as
20:12
a -. 125 -, 130 Rd. favorite Houston is now up to -145 even
20:18
-150 at some shop. So good steam in favor of the
20:21
Strohs. Now if you look at a couple
20:25
angles here for Houston, one would be a favorite off a loss
20:28
versus opponent off a win 60% three percent ROI this year.
20:32
Rd. favorite with steam against a team who missed the playoffs
20:35
the previous year, 69 percent 14% ROI.
20:39
Rd. fave with steam Rd. fave off a loss.
20:41
I got a lot of matches on Houston tonight.
20:43
Also, you look at the starting pitchers.
20:45
Irigetti 4.63 ERA on the year, not great but he was really good
20:49
in August. 5 starts 1.95 ERA and Nick Martinez has been worse at
20:54
home than on the road. At home 4.62 ERA, on the road
20:58
2.74. I'll bank on the bats hopefully
21:01
of Houston getting to Martinez tonight during 260 versus 233
21:05
for Cincinnati and Houston would match in the league.
21:08
Favorite non division favorite favorite low total.
21:12
Actually not not favorite low total.
21:13
This total is a nine, so that wouldn't match.
21:16
But home Rd. splits favor Houston.
21:17
They're 36 and 34 on the road since he's losing at home, 34
21:21
and 39, but a good sharp steam move.
21:24
I'm going to take a shot here on the Stroh's.
21:26
I got Houston at -145 Next step for you, New York Mets against
21:32
the Boston Red Sox. My Red Sox are struggling right
21:35
now. They're sinking like a stone.
21:37
I'm a Sox fan, but I'm going to go Mets tonight.
21:39
Good sharp move on the Mets. We open this game Red Sox as a
21:43
slight favorite. Red Sox were, you know -110 -,
21:46
115. We've now flipped all the way to
21:49
Mets -110 -, 115. So a dog to fave line move in
21:54
favor of the Mets. Now, what I like about that line
21:56
move is the tickets are down the middle. 5050 public does not
21:59
know what to do here yet. You're seeing this line flip
22:02
toward the Mets. So it tells me smart money's on
22:05
New York. Pitch a match up here.
22:08
Tanner Hawk is 8:00 and 9:00 on the year 3.12 ERA, but in August
22:12
he had an area of nearly 4 1/2, so he's kind of struggled down
22:15
the stretch. Tyler Meagle, he is three and
22:19
five with a 4.82 ERA. He's coming off a good start
22:22
against the White Sox. I don't know how much that says
22:24
because White Sox are terrible, but he has been better at home
22:27
than on the road. At home, 3.97 ERA.
22:30
On the road 6.38 favorite low total Mets now -110 -, 115 Total
22:36
of 8 or even 7 1/2 interleague favorite system match of the
22:40
Mets and last 10. It's hard to deny it, but the
22:44
Mets are 8 and two playing good ball, hitting 246 with a 2.35
22:48
team ERA. Red Sox three and seven hitting
22:51
only $1.94 three .31 ERA. So Mets are playing great.
22:56
Red Sox are struggling. 5050 BET split but a dog to fave line
23:00
move in favor of the Mets. Shop around guys.
23:02
I'm going to go Mets here even though I'm a Sox fan.
23:04
I'm rooting for New York tonight.
23:06
I got the Mets at -110 last bite of the night in Major League
23:11
Baseball. Let's go and make some beer.
23:14
Saint Louis Cardinals at the Milwaukee Brew Crew now pitch
23:18
match up for tonight. We have Sonny Gray on the bump
23:20
for Saint Louis. He is 12 and 9 with a 3.96 ERA.
23:24
Meanwhile, Colin Ray, I don't, I can't remember.
23:27
It took me like two or three years.
23:28
I kept pronouncing his name Colin Rhea until I heard the
23:31
broadcast and oh, Ray Rea makes sense.
23:33
Anyway, he is 12 and 4 or 12:00 and 9:12 and 4:00.
23:37
I can't even read my own chicken scratch.
23:38
Anyway, he has a 3.7 OERA in the year.
23:42
What have we seen across the market?
23:43
Well, good line move in favor of Milwaukee.
23:47
The Milwaukee Brew Crew open this game.
23:49
Actually as a dog, you know you had some shops that open -120
23:54
Cardinals. Now we've flipped all the way to
23:56
-120 Milwaukee. So a dog to fave line move away
24:00
from Saint Louis toward Milwaukee.
24:03
Milwaukee has a great bet split here.
24:04
They're only getting 68% of spread bets, but 84% of spread.
24:09
Sorry money line dollars here. I am getting into the football
24:12
mindset, always mentioning spread, but a good low bets,
24:15
high dollars bet split with Milwaukee.
24:17
Now if you look at a couple things here that would favorite
24:20
Milwaukee, one would be a favorite off a loss opponent off
24:23
a win. Saint Louis won yesterday,
24:25
Milwaukee's favorite tonight, 60%.
24:28
Nearly a 3% ROI with that system.
24:30
Home Rd. splits. St.
24:31
Louis is 34 and 37 on the road. Milwaukee is 41 and 26 at home.
24:37
Sonny Gray had a 4 1/2 ERA and six August starts and he's been
24:42
really bad on the road. 5.62 ERA on the road, 2.63 at home.
24:47
Meanwhile, Colin Ray, the Milwaukee Brew Crew, are 6 and
24:50
one in his last seven starts. Milwaukee has had Saint Louis's
24:54
number. They lost last night, but
24:55
they're still 8 and four against Saint Louis.
24:58
This would be a favorite low total told this one fell 8 down
25:01
to 7 1/2. So correlative betting in favor
25:03
of Milwaukee and I'm going to bank on the offense hopefully of
25:06
Milwaukee showing up tonight. They're hitting 252 on the year.
25:09
They've hit 156 homers. They've scored 681 runs versus
25:14
Saint Louis, hitting 241, hitting 145 bombs, 582 runs
25:19
scored. But really this dog to fave line
25:21
move is what jumped out to me. Good bet, split some good system
25:25
matches. I'm going to back Milwaukee.
25:27
Let's drink some beer tonight, some Miller Lite.
25:29
What do you say? Miller Lite's disgusting.
25:31
I'll only drink Miller Lite Bud Light, you know, at a baseball
25:34
game or a hockey game or whatever.
25:36
But if I'm going to enjoy a beer, give me like a good IPA.
25:40
But that about does it. Our 4 pack of baseball sweats
25:42
tonight, can we get 3? That's the goal.
25:44
Milwaukee, the New York Mets, Houston Astros and the Baltimore
25:48
Orioles. So that about does it for
25:51
episode 111 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
25:54
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
25:57
where I ask a favor of you. Could you please do me a big
26:00
favor and give this podcast a five star review?
26:03
If you enjoy the pod, if you want to help me grow the pod, if
26:06
you want to help us rise up the charts, it'll only take you 2
26:08
seconds to give it five stars, but really mean a lot to me.
26:12
Also, if you want to recommend the pod to a friend or click
26:15
that follow button, if there's an option to follow, click that
26:18
because you'll be alerted as soon as the pod drops each day
26:21
and hopefully you can play it before a line moves too much for
26:24
you. Secondly, if you enjoy this pod,
26:27
you enjoy the data-driven breakdowns, you want to support
26:30
the team, let me know you appreciate the hard work that I
26:32
put in each day hosting this pod.
26:35
Well, guess what, If you enjoyed data-driven betting, I wrote a
26:37
book about data-driven betting. It's called the Everything Guide
26:41
to Sports betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
26:44
the everything Guide to sports betting, pick up a copy for you
26:47
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
26:49
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:51
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
26:54
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
26:58
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
27:01
management strategy. It's all included in the
27:03
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
27:05
So buy a copy for you or a buddy or a colleague or a friend and
27:09
when I see at the book, I'll sign my book for you and I'll
27:11
buy you a beer. Of course, if you haven't done
27:14
it yet, now is the time to sign up for a 7 day free trial of
27:18
both Rhythm and Juice Reel. Rhythm is fantastic when it
27:22
comes to their AI backed models and predictions.
27:25
Football season is upon us. We're going to be leaning on
27:26
Rhythm a ton. Rhythm helped us catch that BC
27:29
play the other night where they have a spread of 15.
27:32
We were getting 16 1/2 boom. That's how Rhythm can help us
27:35
and get ready. We're going to talk a lot of
27:37
Rhythm props as well for NFL and then also Juice Reel.
27:41
Juice Reel is great for their Robo Jackson best bet picks each
27:44
day. If you want to tell those
27:46
they're the sharpest bets in the app that the AI algorithm
27:49
isolates each day at noon and releases, but also arbitrage
27:53
opportunities. Sharp must just system matches,
27:56
breakdowns on all the games, exact dollar amounts wagered
28:00
from people who are on the app. I really like that feature as
28:02
well. And you can sync your sports
28:04
books to Juice Reel and get a running report card based on
28:07
your performance. But Rhythm and Juice Reel help
28:10
me win. I want them to help you win.
28:12
So go sign up for Rhythm and Juice Reel.
28:13
But you got to do it in this particular way.
28:16
Click the description tab in this pod, whether you're
28:19
listening on Spotify or iTunes, and then they'll be links for
28:21
Juice Reel and Rhythm. Click those.
28:23
I want to make sure they know that I sent you in their
28:25
direction, but that about does it.
28:27
Another pod here in the books, guys.
28:29
Let's look for a bounce back night here tonight.
28:31
I'm officially done with WNBAI. Don't know how many times I can
28:34
bang my head against the wall and then continue to do it.
28:38
No more banging my head. Let's get some baseball winners
28:40
here for tonight. But as always, whether I see you
28:43
at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the
28:46
Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
28:49
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
28:51
casino R.E.M. GM Springfield and my neck of
28:54
the woods in Massachusetts. Not in the desert, where the
28:56
true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
28:59
runners, where the lowest use possible is found, the South
29:01
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
29:05
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket,
29:07
however it may be, you're going to definitely not show me that
29:10
Yankees ticket. Clay Holmes, you stink.
29:13
No WNBA, you can show me the Orioles -1 that that was our
29:16
only winner last night. First one's on me, next one's on
29:19
you. We'll post about the book
29:20
Sweatshop contrarian plays all night long.
29:23
So remember some parting words, some words of encouragement.
29:26
Sports betting is hard. Remember that.
29:28
You have a bad night. You know, don't get too down on
29:30
yourself when you have a great night.
29:31
Don't get too cocky. Bad night, you're never as bad
29:34
as you think. Good night, you're never as good
29:35
as you as you think. You're always somewhere in the
29:37
middle. But if we can find that sweet
29:39
spot that with our head and not our heart monitor the market, go
29:43
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
29:46
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
29:50
to be successful sports betters long term.
29:52
So have a great Wednesday night, everybody.
29:54
The calm before the storm. We got Baltimore, Kansas City
29:58
NFL returning tomorrow. We have a Friday game, Green
30:02
Bay, Philly and then of course, college football, NFL on Sunday.
30:05
We have a Monday night NFL game. Get ready guys.
30:08
We're going to have a good year here hopefully.
30:10
But have a fantastic night everyone.
30:12
Good luck and I'll see you tomorrow for episode 112 of the
30:16
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
30:20
Have a great night everybody. Good luck.