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The Relief Rally: Navigating Jobs, Rates, and Geopolitical Tensions · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning, everyone!
• 0:01
  Welcome back to Spy Trader.
• 0:02
  It is exactly 6 am on a beautiful Saturday morning, April 4th, 2026, here on the Pacific coast.
• 0:09
  I am your host, Penny Pincher, and I am so glad you could join me for your early morning market brew.
• 0:17
  Even though the markets were closed yesterday for Good Friday, the financial world certainly didn't take a nap.
• 0:24
  We have a lot to unpack from a week that felt like a roller coaster ride at a theme park.
• 0:31
  First, let’s look at the scoreboard.
• 0:33
  It was a classic tale of two halves this week.
• 0:37
  After a really tough March where the S&P 500, or the SPY as we like to call it, dropped nearly 8 percent because of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, we finally saw some green on our screens.
• 0:51
  The market staged a massive twoday relief rally on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• 0:55
  In fact, the Nasdaq100, ticker QQQ, jumped a whopping 3.8 percent on Tuesday alone—its best day in nearly a year!
• 1:03
  All this excitement came from hopes of a ceasefire between the U.S.
• 1:07
  and Iran.
• 1:08
  However, the momentum hit a bit of a speed bump on Thursday.
• 1:13
  President Trump gave a televised address that didn’t quite give investors the clear timeline for deescalation they were looking for.
• 1:20
  As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the DIA, shed 142 points that day.
• 1:26
  But despite that lateweek chill, we ended the week in positive territory for the first time in over a month.
• 1:33
  The SPY was up about 3.4 percent, the QQQ rose 4.4 percent, and the Dow finished up around 3 percent.
• 1:41
  Now, looking at the sectors, we saw a sharp rotation.
• 1:44
  Technology, represented by the XLK ETF, and Communication Services, the XLC, were the stars of the show.
• 1:51
  Investors dove back into big names like NVIDIA and Microsoft after they were sold off during the March panic.
• 1:58
  On the flip side, Energy, or XLE, was the laggard, falling about 4 percent on Wednesday as oil prices dipped on those deescalation hopes.
• 2:07
  The big news that’s going to set the tone for Monday morning arrived yesterday while we were all enjoying the holiday: the March Jobs Report.
• 2:16
  And wow, it was a surprise.
• 2:18
  The U.S.
• 2:19
  economy added 178,000 jobs in March, which blew past the forecast of only 60,000.
• 2:24
  Our unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent.
• 2:27
  On the surface, that sounds great, right?
• 2:30
  But here’s the catch—or the Fed Dilemma as I like to call it.
• 2:34
  A strong economy means the Federal Reserve doesn't have a reason to rush out and cut interest rates.
• 2:41
  With Core PCE Inflation still sticky at 3.1 percent, it looks like interest rates might stay between 3.5 and 3.75 percent for the foreseeable future.
• 2:50
  This news might put some pressure on bond yields when trading resumes, which is something to watch if you hold bond ETFs like TLT.
• 2:59
  We also saw some interesting moves in individual stocks.
• 3:03
  Tesla, ticker TSLA, reported its firstquarter deliveries.
• 3:05
  While they were up yearoveryear, they actually fell compared to the previous quarter.
• 3:10
  This sent shares down over 5 percent as folks worry about cooling demand for electric vehicles.
• 3:16
  Nike also hit a rough patch, reporting a disappointing forecast due to a slowdown in China, which hit the consumer discretionary sector, or XLY, earlier in the week.
• 3:26
  So, what does this all mean for us as traders?
• 3:30
  Well, in my view, this recent rally feels more like a relief bounce than a sustainable bull market.
• 3:37
  The fundamental drivers—high inflation and geopolitical risk—remain unresolved.
• 3:40
  My best advice right now is to focus on quality and income while keeping some dry powder for when things get bumpy.
• 3:48
  For a defensive core, I’d suggest looking at the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, ticker XLV.
• 3:54
  Healthcare is great because companies like UnitedHealth or Johnson and Johnson offer steady earnings in a highrate environment.
• 4:01
  If you’re looking for income, check out the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, or BND.
• 4:06
  It’s a safer mix than longterm treasuries and lets you capture high current yields with less volatility.
• 4:13
  If you want to keep some growth in your portfolio, the Invesco QQQ Trust is still a solid choice, but don't throw all your money in at once.
• 4:23
  Use dollar cost averaging to build your position and focus on companies with massive cash flows like Alphabet to weather any potential earnings misses.
• 4:32
  Finally, we have to protect ourselves from the wildcards.
• 4:35
  If deescalation fails in the Middle East, oil prices will spike again, so gold is your friend.
• 4:42
  The SPDR Gold Shares, or GLD, remains a primary hedge against geopolitical shocks.
• 4:46
  And if you think inflation is going to persist, you might consider the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, or VNQ, specifically focusing on data centers or industrial logistics rather than office space.
• 4:58
  Looking ahead to next week, keep your eyes peeled for the CPI report and the FOMC minutes on April 8th and 9th.
• 5:06
  Those will be the definitive indicators of whether the Fed might pivot or stay the course.
• 5:12
  That’s all for this episode of Spy Trader!
• 5:15
  I’m Penny Pincher, wishing you a wonderful weekend.
• 5:18
  Stay smart, stay patient, and I'll see you on the next update!