Latest / The Fourcast / Keir Starmer’s biggest headache: Donald Trump or Brexit?

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Keir Starmer’s biggest headache: Donald Trump or Brexit? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
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Donald Trump, back in the White House, is blasting out news like
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a fire hydrant. How does Keir Starmer, how does
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Europe deal with him and how should they deal particularly
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with these outpourings? To discuss this, I'm joined by
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two journalists who've dabbled in politics, Michael Gove,
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editor of The Spectator and a cabinet minister under 4
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Conservative prime ministers. Tom Baldwin, who worked for Ed
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Miliband when he was Labour leader and for the campaign for
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a second referendum on the EU parked for now, I think he's the
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biographer of Keir Starmer and also in the studio.
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I hope that's all right, Michael, an expert, the head of
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the Europe program at Chatham House, Amila van Rai, thank you
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all for joining us. And I think probably as we're
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talking about the bow wave from President Trump, let's start
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with you, Michael, as someone who's met him, as you've
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observed these first few interventions, probably many
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more to come from the White House.
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How much do you think Donald Trump genuinely knows when he
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says something? We've obviously just been
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hearing about Gaza, but we've also been hearing about tariffs,
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Greenland, much else besides, How much does he have a clear
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idea in his head about where he truly wants to go, any sort of
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strategy? What's your sense of him from
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meetings, from what you've seen? I think he does.
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There's an old trope about Donald Trump that you shouldn't
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take him literally, but you should take him seriously.
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I think that sometimes there'll be rhetorical excesses.
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Sometimes he can't help himself. Sometimes it will seem as
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though, you know, when past diplomats would have, you know,
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found themselves going through the UN, the WTO and the EU.
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It sounds as though he's on MDMA when he's speaking.
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But at the heart of it, there is a broad strategic view, and that
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broad strategic view is that America has been suckered for
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too long, that America is a Gulliver that has been tied down
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by those international institutes.
2:04
But that's a broadview. That's not that's not telling us
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that when he says something specific, there is definitely a
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plan behind it. There I think there is a plan.
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I think that some of the manifestations of that plan may
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backfire, but overall that plan is to have a a realist, a
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realpolitik view in which America having been held back by
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international law, having been held back by the institutions
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that it was paying for, as he sees it, NATO and the the UN in
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particular, now it is time for America to assert its own
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interests and in so doing, respond to a particular threat,
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as he perceives it, from China and its allies.
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I mean, the European leaders have had their first taste of
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Trump second time round. Do you get a sense how much of
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the headspace he's been occupying these 2 1/2 weeks?
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How much? How much they give credit to
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what he's saying? How much they credit him with a
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plan when he opens his mouth. I mean, he's probably taking up
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more headspace than he should. And that's because Europe, as we
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know, has got huge challenges in terms of Russia's war in Ukraine
3:17
on the border, in terms of competitiveness.
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These are really quite serious structural issues.
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And yet Europe is trying to figure out how to respond to
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Trump, who wants to invade Greenland.
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That's not a constructive or productive use of time, yet
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that's where we are. Tom, I'd like to ask you,
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because you wrote Keir Starmer's biography, how you think he's
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going to cope. We know his current plan in
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terms of how he deals with Donald Trump's utterances.
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Zip it. Basically pause, try and think
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if it's real. Try and think if there's
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something behind it that he's really getting at some other
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trade you can do. That seems to be.
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I mean, I'm told that's exactly the plan.
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Can you hold to it? Do you think the Keir Starmer
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that you've studied in got to know?
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I think one thing you're definitely going to get from
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Keir Starmer is an absence of posture.
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He's not going to be striking a position to please the crowd, to
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please his party, to please the press.
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He's going to look for that little space, that ambiguity,
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that nuance where you can find a consensus.
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Now, that won't always be elegant, but it's probably the
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best way to pursue the national interest.
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And he's a he's a very restrained guy.
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Must have been quite a difficult biography to write in some ways,
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but he must have little trip wires himself.
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We watched him when Elon Musk was showering abuse online on
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him, on his government, on much else to do with Britain.
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And it seemed to say the trip wire was when Elon Musk went for
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Jess Phillips. And I mean, I just wonder, could
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there be other trip wires there for him with with Donald Trump?
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He'll go too far on something and he'll just feel the pressure
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from within. And we could put the one side,
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the pressure from the party, which could be immense on some
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issues. You feel he's got to respond.
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There there will be moments where they have to disagree.
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I mean, he's already effectively disagreed about, you know, the
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plan to turn Gaza Strip into into the Riviera of the Middle
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East. You know, he said that
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Palestinians must be allowed to go home.
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He doesn't necessarily do it from by a position of shouting
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or, you know, doing a sort of Hugh Grant and love.
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Actually, he will make his case in the right way.
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I think he's probably done better than most other
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Democratic leaders in preparing for and dealing with Trump so
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far. It is difficult.
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But the way he dealt with Elon Musk was interesting because he
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was being attacked and he just wrote it out.
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There's no point getting interest back with Elon Musk.
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It's much easier to do it if you're defending somebody else.
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If you're defending coming to the aid of a of ministerial
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colleague, then, you know, bleating about how how unfair it
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is that you're being portrayed by Elon Musk in this horrible
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way. So I think you're finding the
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right vehicle and the right moment is very important for
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him. The first big round that
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Europe's had to contest with is the the threat of tariffs from
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President Trump. What's your sense of how they
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measured this? They've watched what happened to
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Canada. They've watched what happened to
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Mexico. Do they think with them it could
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similarly be transactional or could it be actually different?
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Nigel Farage was saying yesterday he he thinks Donald
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Trump has a different plan for Europe, which is basically to
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put a tariff all there for good. I think what Trump seemed so, so
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we know that Trump doesn't like the EU as a set of institutions.
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What I think we'll we'll see is countries who try to
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bilateralize their, I don't think that's a word, but go for
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the bilateral relationship. Here's a word now.
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There we go with Trump, rather than going through the EU,
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because they might try to hedge in their own national interest
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or how they see it in their own national interest, because they
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know that Trump doesn't like the EUI think with Trump the
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difficulty is you don't know where he's going to stop.
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So you might give him something, but he will go further and he'll
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come back. We're seeing this already with
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some of the Baltic states who announced that they would raise
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their defence spending to 5%, which is exactly what Trump has
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called for. the US doesn't spend 5% on defence.
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Doesn't matter. Trump has made the call.
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The Baltic states, who are tiny and on the border with Russia,
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have responded. Now, in terms of what this means
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for the EU, that's obviously a huge issue if Trump is picking
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off countries 1 by 1, um, because that undermines EU
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unity. And what we've also seen under
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Trump's first term, when, uh, Juncker was still commissioned
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president, is that actually he was to some extent somewhat able
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to, um, talk about to use trade diplomacy as an effective tool
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to stave off some of the worst consequences of potential
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tariffs. Some people think he played
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Donald Trump quite well. Yes.
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And he had a reputation as a man who couldn't always manage the
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stairs, Jean Claude Juncker. But he he seemed to on this one,
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people give him full marks. Yes, exactly.
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And of course Wanderlein hasn't had experience with Trump
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directly just yet, I think. No.
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Well, she did at the end of his second term.
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Didn't. Yes.
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Yeah, a slight slide over, but we know he doesn't like women.
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We know he doesn't like the EU, so she's going to have a harder
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ride on that front. I think what is quite clear, you
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know, the Commission has been preparing for months at this
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point, so they have a clear sense of what their offer will
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be and how they will retaliate if if things do escalate in that
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way. But I guess the question is,
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does Trump care? And I don't know that he does,
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ultimately. Michael, Donald Trump pretty
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much said in the run up to this election that tariffs were a
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religion. The most beautiful word in the
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English language. Exactly, and you were clearly in
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the room with him for quite a long time by the picked up some
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of his traits. Is it though, or is this
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actually a ploy the the the building developers shimmy is, I
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mean the the external Revenue Service, is that really going to
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replace the Internal Revenue Service?
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The the the Trump loves tariffs, and his interest in politics was
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particularly provoked in the in the 1980s by what he believed
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was the taking of America's economy by Japan then, rather
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than China. He's got a very transactional,
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very mercantilist view of trade and of power overall, and
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tariffs for him serve 3 purposes.
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So there's the the negotiating tool, as we've seen with Mexico
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and Canada. So the tariff is a cudgel and
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indeed it was used towards Colombia in order to make sure
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that he could send Colombian migrants back there.
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Then there's the tariff as an economic tool.
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And what he wants to do is to effectively create a pro
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American trade bloc to rival what he sees as China's.
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And then the third one, exactly as you say, is as a revenue
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generator. In the past, in the 19th
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century, America levied most of the the money that it needed for
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a federal purposes from external tariffs rather than from income
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tax. And in Trump's utopia,
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reactionary utopia, that is the way to go.
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A. Lot of people watching the way
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he did dealt with Mexico and Mexico and Canada would think
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actually, no, it's it's, it isn't a real greed.
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It is simply a bargaining check. What's wrong?
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He sees them in different ways, so he will deploy them
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interchangeably for different purposes.
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And there's a piece in this week's Spectator, if you'll
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forgive the plug, by an economist called Oren Cass, who
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runs a think tank called American Compass, which is a pro
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tariff, pro Trump broadly think tank.
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And in it, Orencast outlines the way in which one of the reasons
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why Trump likes tariffs is that they can serve different
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purposes at different times. And also he loves the fact
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they're transgressive. You know, there's there's sort
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of taboo around them that that post war history has been
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apparently in the direction of freer trade.
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And now he's standing afought history and saying stop.
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What marks do you give Keir Starmer so far in the way he's
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been handling Trump? I think to be fair, Starmer's
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handled things very well. By all accounts, Keir Starmer's
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favorite Labour leader was Harold Wilson.
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Harold Wilson had all sorts of difficulties when he was Prime
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Minister dealing with the Vietnam War, LB JS demands and
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then subsequently Nixon Ford, and that was a period when it
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was a potentially Rocky, but Wilson, using the the guile and
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skill that was his hallmark, managed to navigate an effective
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route through that. I don't think Starham is
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directly modelling himself and Wilson in every regard, but I
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think he can certainly say at the moment that, like Wilson,
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he's managed to show an adroitness in the handling of
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the transatlantic relationship. That raises a question I'd like
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to ask you about, Tom. The degree to which you think
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Keir Starmer, who has made a virtue really of coming from
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outside politics and into politics later in life, the
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degree to which he knows his political history.
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This might seem like a slight digression, but you've been to
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his house, I think. Is it on the bookshelves?
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Are they're political books like a lot of US obsessives have?
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Or is it a different range of interests and good novels for
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the beach? He does read political books.
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I remember going to his house once and finding out how Wilson
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biography on his sofa. Not, not a newly written one by
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a minister in his cabinet. It was it was that one.
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OK, well, that's slightly different.
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But I mean, maybe it's just polite to read it.
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But, but I, I, I think he, he does know political history,
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also knows a lot about foreign policy through his previous
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incarnations, you know, so as a human rights lawyer, he
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travelled around the world. Yes, I think he may have.
12:36
Mentioned Heads of Government right as as as Director of
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Public Prosecutions. I think he's mentioned that job.
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Yeah, he, he, he, he dealt, he was actually part, you know,
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Euro just meetings and he, he, he represented Britain in
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Washington and meetings of Eric Holder than Justice secretary of
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the United States and then a shadow Brexit secretary.
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He travelled around Europe trying to get a better deal than
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the awful one that we got. Now, you know, that is
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considerable foreign policy experience.
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It's considerable understanding of the world.
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And what's interesting about it, I think is each one of those is
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located in what Churchill called the three spheres of influence
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that we have. Yeah, the Commonwealth, the
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United States and Europe. And he wants to stay close to
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all three. Because we're not actually.
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And, well, I want to ask about that exactly because when we
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were waiting for what seemed inevitable Keir Starmer to walk
13:29
into #10 not always inevitable, but inevitable, as we got closer
13:33
to the general election, there was quite a sort of trope going
13:36
around in maybe in think tanks, but certainly in journalism,
13:41
that Trump would force Keir Starmer into Europe's arms.
13:47
It doesn't look like that is happening at all, does he?
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Trump is clearly trying to drive a wedge between the UK and the
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EU and is doing so. I mean, we'll, we'll see whether
13:56
he'll be successful. We know, you know.
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Starmer was in Brussels earlier this week.
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All went very smoothly. They seem pleased to.
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See, seen very. I mean, I think the real thing
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is we can all talk and that's nice, but we have to put meat on
14:08
the bones so they have a. Clue.
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I mean, we're coming up for a renegotiation.
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Do they have a clue what he really wants in Europe?
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No, I think the the UK has made it very clear that they want to
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seek a reset in UK EU relations. Given the political context,
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that's probably a positive thing.
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Not probably that is a positive thing.
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But the the problem is that a the UK isn't clear about what
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it's offering and what would be different.
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And because of EU KS self-imposed red lines really,
14:37
which are not rejoining the single market and not rejoining
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the customs union, there's actually very little wiggle,
14:43
wiggle room for manoeuvre. So that makes this reset quite
14:47
difficult. I was.
14:50
Just wondering because Tom was active trying to get a second
14:54
referendum and you knew probably got to knew Nokia Starmer back
14:58
back then. How much do you think it pains
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him that he he's not tiptoeing towards Europe remotely?
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Really. I mean, he turns turning up for
15:06
a dinner, but he's not doing any of the big stuff that might have
15:09
been thought was up his straight back.
15:12
There. Well, let's come back.
15:14
I agree. Not yet.
15:15
I, I, I I think it could. Be a phase two to all of this.
15:18
Yeah, I mean, I think there's a certain amount of impatience
15:22
that they haven't got a win yet, and that's impatient stretching
15:24
across government into Downing St. and beyond that.
15:27
So far all we've got is some meetings and tending meetings is
15:31
great symbolically, but it's not done anything to improve the,
15:35
you know, the appalling circumstances that we were left
15:38
in after Brexit. Nothing to mitigate the damage
15:40
that that's done. And they need to get some wins
15:43
now. You know, in an ideal world, I
15:44
mean, this is a very, very challenging time, but it is
15:48
possible, I think, for Britain to end up with improved trading
15:52
relations with both Europe and America out of this.
15:55
But that requires a certain amount of ducking and diving
15:57
between the two of them, which I think they're ready to do.
16:00
A bigger and more important question for Keir Starmer, I
16:03
think, is this security issue where it's not about a
16:06
transactional, you know, what can we get out of them?
16:09
It's how do we actually protect the security of Europe from
16:13
threats from without and within. And that is also Trump is
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crucial to that too. Well, there's a the, the, yeah,
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there's a huge amount there. I want to come back to the media
16:22
on it in a second because what, what what does defence
16:25
cooperation really mean when it comes to the European Union?
16:27
But I wanted to ask you, Michael, you've written a piece
16:31
in this week's, is it called Spectator magazine?
16:34
Yeah, yes. And, and it's about Morgan
16:36
McSweeney. Yes.
16:38
Who's the chief of staff and was the campaign organiser for for
16:41
Keir Starmer and. And you get an impression from
16:44
your you've had conversations he's actually with him, with
16:50
Trump. You seem incredibly well
16:51
connected. He's very nervous of Europe
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still, by the sound of it, it's still the third rail.
16:58
He's nervous of quite a few things which the left
17:00
traditionally quite likes. But that, that's part of it,
17:03
isn't it? Do you think that will actually
17:05
govern Keir Starmer's relationship with Europe?
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I think it would be a factor. So Morgan Mcsweeney's analysis
17:13
and the analysis of those around him of the of the last election
17:17
and of Labour's future is that, and it's a contested analysis,
17:21
but one that he holds fast to, is that voters in the red Wall,
17:26
voters who had backed Boris and Brexit came home to Labour in
17:30
2024. And that reopening the Brexit
17:33
issue risks pushing them aside. Added to that, the biggest
17:37
threat to Labour at the moment is not the Conservatives, but
17:39
reform. And so Labour needs to be an
17:42
insurgent party on the side of working people, not on the side
17:46
of metropolitan elites as it were, as it might be seen.
17:49
So therefore sounds like you. Therefore, Europe is is doubly
17:54
bad and Europe is triply bad because migration is a
17:59
touchstone issue for many of these voters.
18:02
And one of the things that the the EU would most like to see as
18:05
part of any reset is a youth mobility agreement.
18:08
We actually have youth mobility agreements with Australia, New
18:11
Zealand and South Africa. It's not a return to free
18:13
movement, but it would be a relaxation of the current status
18:17
quo in migration terms with the EU.
18:19
And you could imagine Morgan, because we can well imagine how
18:22
in the hands of Nigel Farage that could be used against this
18:26
Labour government. I'm just going to say one thing
18:28
briefly on the Security question, which is a a potential
18:33
Achilles heel for Keir Starmer, of course, is the ceding of
18:36
sovereignty on the Chagos Islands.
18:37
But what is interesting so far is that lots of people who are
18:40
Trump adjacent have expressed anger about it.
18:43
But Trump himself? He hasn't said a dicky bird.
18:45
It's the dog that hasn't barred, and that's intriguing.
18:48
Yeah, might not have found it on the map.
18:50
Ameda, I did want to ask you realistically when people talk
18:55
about the defence cooperation in Europe, there seem to be a lot
18:59
of different versions of what that is.
19:00
And some people are less keen to only get their defence kit out
19:04
of Europe because they always want to have ties with America
19:06
and the rest of it. How realistic is is that over
19:09
trumpeted a bit? It's a, it's a grabby phrase.
19:13
It makes it sound, it sounds serious, but would it actually
19:16
amount to a row of beans even if there was an agreement along the
19:18
lines that that are being mapped out at at the moment if we
19:21
looked back a few years from now?
19:23
I think it could be a game changer if we're serious about
19:25
it and if we're going to do it properly and we have to be
19:27
serious about it because of the worsening external security
19:29
environment. And then add to that a US ally
19:34
who is still an ally. But there is bipartisan focus on
19:38
the Indian Pacific, which may mean in the kind of medium to
19:41
long term resources currently in Europe being reallocated
19:44
elsewhere in the world, that means that Europe as a whole has
19:49
to step up. And so this isn't about UK
19:51
defence or EU defence or anything in between.
19:53
It's about European defence and what that looks like so that,
19:58
you know, we can defend ourselves against Russia and and
20:00
any other kind of adversaries. I was trying to ask you, Tom, if
20:05
if, if you think Keir Starmer, it pains him not to be able to
20:10
embrace Europe, not to be able to do the project that you were
20:13
jointly engaged on, trying to get a second referendum ages
20:17
ago. But if if not doing that then
20:19
then getting closer than he now feels able to get the man you
20:24
describe in your book, his formative experiences, not being
20:27
very particularly emotive. The rest of it, maybe he just
20:31
compartmentalises it and moves on, but what's your sense of
20:34
where Europe does his heartbeat for it or it's he's moved on?
20:38
I think his Europeanism is based on 1945, not 1972, is based on
20:44
that blood bond of the ECHR coming together to say this must
20:48
never happen again. What you know, you know what,
20:50
what Hitler did to his own people, that's, you know, that
20:53
is the absolute core. And this, this human rights
20:55
framework, this, this and that matters to him more.
20:59
I think that sort of defense of a Liberal Democratic Europe than
21:03
a transaction, any deal on this or that, you know, you know,
21:06
when you get a veterinary agreement and so on.
21:09
What is key though is, you know, the government is now
21:12
prioritising growth above all other things.
21:15
If you're going to prioritise growth above all other things,
21:18
it's quite hard to say. Oh, but we can't do anything
21:20
about Europe. It's quite hard to say actually.
21:22
You can't have a grown up conversation about immigration
21:23
and what skills we need. So this is.
21:25
Your phase two point is it. So this, this comes back to the
21:27
MC Sweeney issue, I think, which is if you have a very, very
21:30
sharply edged political agenda, as Michael's written this week
21:35
about, you know, the red wall and white working class.
21:37
And you got a reader. I have.
21:40
I have read it. It's free.
21:43
Yeah. That creates contradictions in
21:48
what you're trying to do in government.
21:50
That creates tensions elsewhere in government.
21:53
And I think that the, the, the key to understanding Keir
21:56
Starmer is always to under recognise he sees the world as a
22:01
complex place rather than a simple place.
22:03
He doesn't like shallow, trite 3 word slogans.
22:08
He recognises there's trade-offs.
22:10
So yes, he wants to win those red wall seats.
22:13
He also wants to call into those blue wall seats.
22:15
Yes, he wants to, you know, deal with people's anxiety about
22:19
immigration, but he also wants to get the skills we need to
22:21
make our public services around work and our economy grow.
22:24
So there's trade-offs everywhere.
22:26
And I think I saw very narrow idea of mixed Sweeney's totally
22:30
in what to do. That's not that's not how it is.
22:32
It's more complicated than. I'm sure that three word slogan
22:35
jibe wasn't addressed to you, take back control and all that.
22:40
But do you think phase there could be a phase two?
22:43
Could you envisage Rachel Reeves panicking, no growth, trying to
22:46
reach over for dynamic alignment as it's called on certain
22:50
sectors of British industry at the tail end of this government
22:54
as it gets closer to a general election?
22:56
Or do you, do you think actually what we're looking at at the
22:58
moment, what Amit has been describing is probably the
23:00
settled scope of ambition? I I don't think that there will
23:03
be much change during this parliamentary term.
23:06
So you, as everyone has acknowledged the, the trade and
23:09
cooperation agreement has to come up for renegotiation.
23:11
There are certain issues that were parked and certain others
23:14
that are up for review. But I don't think there will be
23:17
much movement because again, for there to be significant
23:21
movement, then the self declared red lines, entry to the single
23:24
market or the customs union would have to be breached.
23:27
And Labour aren't going to do that because entry into the
23:31
single market of course comes with free movement.
23:35
There's another associated concern as well, I think for for
23:37
some in Labour and some in government actually more
23:40
precisely, which is that they can begin to see the glimmers of
23:44
Brexit benefits for them in particular areas, for example.
23:47
He's talked it up sometimes. Artificial.
23:49
Assignments. He's made it clear explicitly
23:52
that he believes that there are benefits in regulating
23:54
differently from the EU. Steve Reed has talked about the
23:57
benefits of regulating gene editing and agricultural
24:00
technology differently. Now, these are not massive game
24:04
changers in the economy yet. But I think it goes back to what
24:06
Tom was saying, which is that I think that Stormer's revealed
24:09
preference in government would be to see where he can accrue
24:13
small positional advantages in particular areas without having
24:17
to satisfy a particular ideological template.
24:20
Even though he may emotionally deeply regret the fact that
24:24
we're not in the European Union, I don't think he will allow that
24:27
emotion to cloud a day-to-day judgement about what pragmatic
24:31
wins he might be able to secure. What Tom said there, that's a
24:34
strategic vision for EU KS relationship with the EU going
24:37
forward that is not being articulated by the British
24:39
government. And I think that's.
24:41
That's why they should hire Tom Well.
24:43
But, but I think that's the issue with this whole reset
24:46
talk. But there's a, there's a
24:47
mismanagement of expectations there that the UK isn't being
24:50
clear about what it wants. There isn't a bigger strategic
24:52
vision for the relationship going forward and that then
24:55
doesn't help inform its priorities in those discussions
24:59
as to where does Britain feature on on the EU's agenda.
25:02
I mean, as I started off by saying, you know, there's a war
25:05
on the continent, there is competitiveness and economic
25:08
growth issues. They're embarking on a hugely
25:11
ambitious enlargement process while, you know, just just lost
25:16
one significant. With page 94.
25:19
Not quite page 94, but certainly not in the top three priorities
25:23
necessarily. And so certainly when it comes
25:24
to the TCA negotiations or or review, I should say in 2026,
25:29
there is 0 appetite to reopen that and go through every single
25:33
page. Nor is there capacity really
25:36
because of all these other issues that we're facing.
25:38
And so I think as ever, we just, you know, sitting here in in
25:42
London, we have to realise a what the E us interests are.
25:45
EU KS articulated this desire to want to be closer.
25:49
OK, fine. But then it has to come up with
25:50
a proposal and it has to also think about what's palatable for
25:54
the EU side, which at the moment I'm just not really seeing that
25:56
understanding, constantly knocking out this discussion of
25:59
youth mobility and tying that to freedom of movement, which it is
26:02
not. And I don't understand why we
26:04
would do that or why the government would do that.
26:07
It is just particularly unconstructive and unhelpful,
26:09
which is kind of taking away a little bit from all the positive
26:13
symbolic mood musings that we saw right after Starmer's
26:18
election. I I I'd like to finish if I can.
26:23
I'd just asking you all about bringing it all back to Trump
26:28
again and the degree to which he is influencing our politics,
26:32
maybe maybe even he is the template for political
26:36
leadership more and more so constantly in touch with his own
26:40
grass roots big gestures that aren't necessarily backed up.
26:48
Notwithstanding what you said earlier, Michael, by detailed
26:52
policy plans. Can you say right wing leaders
26:56
in Europe? Are they?
26:57
There's quite a few of them who presumably take notes every time
27:01
they watch watch him. I mean, there's right wing
27:04
leaders and there's Trump, who's a convicted criminal.
27:08
So I'm not sure I would subscribe to the idea that he's
27:12
the image of a political leader. It was.
27:15
Not the template, the technique. I was wondering if people are
27:19
watching. It is a new, you know, this is a
27:21
dawn of a new politics for all of us, is what I was wondering.
27:24
Yes, and that's certainly 1 of ruthlessly pursuing national
27:27
interest in a context of geopolitical fragmentation.
27:30
Umm, umm, you know, and, and he's very close to obviously
27:34
Georgia Maloney in, in Italy, uh, Viktor Orban in, in Hungary
27:37
who are uh, populist far right leaders.
27:41
Umm, and they're building those bridges.
27:43
Umm, I think it's too soon to tell whether this is the model
27:47
going forward. Tom Kate Starmer's trying to be
27:51
the Georgia Maloney of, of Britain in a sense, in that he
27:54
he wants to, he wants us to believe he's not anti European,
27:58
but he's also happy to engage with Trump, maybe China as well.
28:05
He he, he wants to walk all of these things.
28:06
But but he's also talked about himself as Keir Starmer as a the
28:10
last bulwark against populism. This government's got to work
28:13
or, you know, it's the last roll of the dice.
28:15
He's got to deliver things that make people think this system
28:19
works. And yet the thing that he's
28:22
worried about the right wing populism, he says might sort of
28:25
is is is at the gates. That is Trump.
28:28
I mean, he he he's hiding that sometimes, but that that's he's
28:33
trying to stop Britain going Trump and yet being nice to
28:36
Trump. How's that?
28:36
Is he going to pull that off? I was.
28:39
Talking to someone from Downing St. last night who said, do you
28:44
realize that, yeah, we may be the sort of last that's sort of
28:47
left of centre government left at this rate.
28:51
So trying to hold this line now, it's really important in those
28:55
circumstances that you don't become infected by the virus.
29:02
And I think sometimes when people are trying to get a very
29:05
clear message out about Keir Starmer, you see sort of almost
29:09
of ersatz populist lines being given about, you know, civil
29:11
service city in a tepid bar for magic he hated.
29:15
He knows what's wrong, right? That's not him and I think what
29:19
you his argument is that Morgan right, I don't I don't know who
29:22
you're right. The the way to be not only the
29:28
antithesis to populism, but also the antidote is to restore
29:34
people's faith that the system can deliver for them and improve
29:38
their lives and bring real change.
29:40
Now that is harder as Michael knows than than sometimes it's
29:45
looks in opposition and they're beginning to I think finally
29:49
beginning to sort of hit some metal with their with with the
29:53
shovels now, meanwhile, but but you know, it's taken a while.
29:56
I mean, there is there's quite a lot of envy towards how Trump's
30:00
approached his first few days in power in down St.
30:03
You know, they're saying, well, why don't we have all those
30:06
announcements ready? They didn't have 100 day plan
30:08
and that is one of the problems. They, they had a series of
30:13
rather unpopular announcements and a lot of office politics
30:18
rather than real politics. And so I think they've learnt
30:21
from that. It's very recoverable, but they
30:23
have wasted a lot of time and they're looking across the
30:25
Atlantic and that you don't have to be a populist to get your
30:28
announcements out early to show you're delivering change.
30:30
You just have to be a good government.
30:32
It's been said, Michael, that one of the people in Britain who
30:35
will be sitting drumming his fingers on the table looking at
30:40
the way Trump is doing things, looking at the way maybe his
30:44
party, your party, the Tory party, is looking for a force
30:47
that can take on Farage, will be Boris Johnson.
30:50
And that he'll be sitting there thinking at some point, sort of
30:53
5 minutes to midnight before the next general election, the Tory
30:55
party will come to him and beg forgiveness and hand in the
31:00
leadership as the only way to take on Farage.
31:04
Could you envisage that? It's not unthinkable, is it?
31:06
It's not unthinkable, no. So yes, I mean, you know, Boris
31:09
has been compared to since an artist, friends have compared to
31:12
him. Friends of his, that is, have
31:14
compared to de Gaulle as well. It would seem implausible at the
31:18
moment, but then Trump's own return after having backed the
31:23
the capital rioters and fermented, you know, and incited
31:28
rebellion against his own vice president.
31:30
Four years later, he's in the White House.
31:32
So Boris will think in, in, in at a time like this, anything is
31:35
possible. There's one thing, though, apart
31:38
from all of the other issues that have been well aired, that
31:41
stands in in Boris's way when it comes to thinking about a a
31:44
return. And that is the increased
31:46
salience of migration. Last week, Priti Patel, the
31:50
shadow foreign secretary, was being hauled over the calls for
31:53
the Conservative record on migration.
31:55
I was part of that government. I'm as guilty as anyone or as
32:00
proud as anyone of, of, of our records, so I'm not trying to
32:03
distance myself. But the the position of many
32:08
potential Conservative voters, particularly those who've gone
32:11
over to reform, is that the last Conservative government signally
32:14
let them down on migration. And Boris is very heavily
32:17
associated with that. But if there is one person who
32:20
is capable of transcending the detail by sheer force of
32:23
personality, it's Boris. And forgetting it maybe along
32:27
the way. As he has said before this the
32:29
blessed sponge of amnesia can make the slate of memory clean,
32:34
and he's probably hoping that will happen with Aspects.
32:37
And his record if he is watching the chances of hiring you as his
32:41
campaign manager. I think that I I'd be more than
32:45
happy to write his biography, but I think that I probably
32:47
shouldn't be writing his campaign plan.
32:50
Thank you all three so much for your time and that discussion.
32:53
Very grateful. That's it for this edition of
32:56
the Forecast. Until next time, goodbye.