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NFL Week 13 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:16
Speaker 1: is our Week thirteen NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
0:20
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
0:23
Speaker 1: off of a two and three week in our contest.
0:27
Speaker 1: We reviewed that extensively in our Sunday Night recap episode
0:30
Speaker 1: since we had contest plays on the Chargers on Sunday
0:33
Speaker 1: Night Football for posterity. We lost. It was an excruciating
0:39
Speaker 1: way to end the week. We had Chargers plus three
0:42
Speaker 1: and a half ninety seven seconds in a Zay Flowers
0:45
Speaker 1: touchdown run when he should have gone down away from
0:48
Speaker 1: covering a lot of lines we liked have already moved
0:52
Speaker 1: since Sunday when we did our Sunday episode, which is
0:55
Speaker 1: why you need to listen to that Sunday show if
0:58
Speaker 1: you want to get the best the number. On today's show,
1:01
Speaker 1: we will not only get to our Simon says in
1:03
Speaker 1: our exact decision. What we will get to our Simon
1:06
Speaker 1: Says and our exec decision. On Thursday. We will finalize
1:11
Speaker 1: our big Balls better the Week, our Foxhoul, our Survivor,
1:13
Speaker 1: our money Line parlay, and don't forget me and Simon
1:19
Speaker 1: go and live this Sunday. That's right Live show this Sunday,
1:25
Speaker 1: December third, The Shepherd in the Knucklehead, Hoboken, New Jersey.
1:29
Speaker 1: Free to get in, free drinks, free chance to bet
1:33
Speaker 1: with or give me and Simon big big hugs. You
1:38
Speaker 1: must rsvp check out the link in the description page
1:42
Speaker 1: or the description here on this YouTube page and in
1:45
Speaker 1: the podcast episode page. Can also go to eventwright dot
1:48
Speaker 1: com search the Favorites podcast for more info and to RSVP.
1:53
Speaker 1: This episode, we'll look at the entire board. We'll begin
1:55
Speaker 1: narrowing down the five picks we'll enter in the Favorites
1:58
Speaker 1: Podcast one hundred one thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
2:01
Speaker 1: contests still open for sign up, awarding weekly and season
2:04
Speaker 1: long prizes Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. All right, time
2:09
Speaker 1: to get serious, because the dust has settled in the contest.
2:13
Speaker 1: Everyone's two lowest scores have been dropped. That was always
2:17
Speaker 1: the deal. After Thanksgiving games, two lowest scores get dropped.
2:22
Speaker 1: Simon and I are now in three hundred and sixth place.
2:27
Speaker 1: We had been at about one ninety I think before
2:30
Speaker 1: the drop. We are eight wins behind the number one spot.
2:33
Speaker 1: We fell out of the top one percent out of
2:35
Speaker 1: eleven thousand, eight hundred entries. We are still top three percent. Listen,
2:41
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we know what our
2:43
Speaker 1: favorite coach, Mike Tomlin would say about that's so.
2:47
Speaker 2: Bit we set responsibility for that. We will not go gently.
2:51
Speaker 2: We're gonna unleash hell here in December. We're gonna go
2:54
Speaker 2: into tag mode because we have to, because that's what's required.
2:57
Speaker 1: Let's bring in my co host, my bff MO, my companion,
3:01
Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunter. Simon, Hello, listen to me.
3:10
Speaker 1: Listen to me. Here's the problem. We are underdog players
3:14
Speaker 1: and we've been like just fighting, fighting, scratching Klin in
3:18
Speaker 1: the past few weeks. I want to give you a stat.
3:20
Speaker 1: The past week, favorites went twelve and three per Evan Abrams.
3:25
Speaker 1: This has only been done four times in the Wildcard era.
3:29
Speaker 1: You know, we're fighting the trends by being underdog players
3:32
Speaker 1: right now.
3:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, But at the same time, we've we've tried to adjust.
3:36
Speaker 2: Right even last week, I was throwing favorites out of
3:38
Speaker 2: where It's like, do we like these favorites? We want
3:40
Speaker 2: to take these guys and I'm with you, like I
3:43
Speaker 2: always feel way better taking a dog with the points,
3:45
Speaker 2: and like this week, I I love all dogs. I
3:49
Speaker 2: think there might be one or two favorites I like,
3:51
Speaker 2: and I think people know. When we talked Sunday night,
3:53
Speaker 2: it was just there's a lot of really ugly dogs
3:56
Speaker 2: this week. And historically after Thanksgiving week, all the public
4:00
Speaker 2: getting fat off all these favorites. Usually it's a bad, bad,
4:05
Speaker 2: bad week for them a week after last week. So
4:09
Speaker 2: stay the course, Chad. We won't change. We will keep
4:11
Speaker 2: doing We got us here. We will go with dogs
4:14
Speaker 2: this week as well.
4:15
Speaker 1: We got to be us. We've been doing this a
4:17
Speaker 1: long time together, you and I. It's like a marriage.
4:21
Speaker 1: We will talk about the changes we're going to make
4:23
Speaker 1: in our relationship. We will acknowledge the potentiality of those changes,
4:28
Speaker 1: and then we're going to fall back into our old
4:30
Speaker 1: habits and love each other for it. As a reminder,
4:33
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.
4:36
Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
4:38
Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every
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Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets
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Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.
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4:58
Speaker 1: Bet three six five must be twenty one or older
5:00
Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or
5:04
Speaker 1: eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight
5:08
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.
5:11
Speaker 1: Conditioners restrictions apply as a reminder. Contest roundup Week twelve
5:16
Speaker 1: saw one hundred and three entries finish five and oh
5:20
Speaker 1: in the contest. Congrats to our first place winner, a
5:24
Speaker 1: J J zero one one. Enjoy the cash. The Producer's
5:29
Speaker 1: Cup of War goes to Ray Finkel seventy seven for
5:32
Speaker 1: finishing dead fucking last and the Week twelve contest going
5:35
Speaker 1: on to five, missing the tiebreaker by one hundred and
5:38
Speaker 1: ninety yards. Ray Finkel, email Matt Mitchell at podcast at
5:42
Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize. Thanks
5:45
Speaker 1: for playing. Week thirteen in our contest is live. The
5:49
Speaker 1: tiebreaker total passing yards on Monday Night Football good luck.
5:54
Speaker 1: Everybody all right? In our futures, We've talked about a
5:58
Speaker 1: lot of them. Most of them are get at this point.
6:01
Speaker 1: The couple that are alive. Tyreek Hill to lead the
6:03
Speaker 1: league in receiving yards. We had that at nine to one.
6:05
Speaker 1: He's now all alone in first by two hundred yards.
6:08
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen is second. The most irrelevant season of big
6:11
Speaker 1: numbers in wide receiver history. I think he's got ninety
6:14
Speaker 1: seven catches and nearly twelve hundred receiving yards. Nobody would know.
6:20
Speaker 1: Jalen Carter, we had at Rookie of the Year, defensive
6:22
Speaker 1: Rookie of the year seven to one. He had a
6:25
Speaker 1: black field goal on Sunday. He's still the odds on favorite.
6:27
Speaker 1: Before we get to the week thirteen lines, small bit
6:30
Speaker 1: of housekeeping on our Sunday recap show, I incorrectly said
6:34
Speaker 1: Tennessee was our survivor pick I forgot we switched to Minnesota.
6:41
Speaker 1: But I was corrected by our producer after the show.
6:44
Speaker 1: I was also corrected by a very surly listener named Bill,
6:49
Speaker 1: who admonished me with a message, you either made a
6:52
Speaker 1: mistake or just decided to chalk it up as a win.
6:55
Speaker 1: Show Some integrity and own it on your podcast? Really
7:00
Speaker 1: as poor. Meanwhile, I also really received a very lovely
7:04
Speaker 1: message from a listener named Dan Rancus who just pointed
7:07
Speaker 1: out the air and was not an actual dick about it.
7:11
Speaker 1: It's like we're the most transparent fucking podcast about betting
7:15
Speaker 1: there is. We literally list everything in the app. We
7:17
Speaker 1: talk about every game that we bet, We talk about
7:20
Speaker 1: the wins and the losses. I mentioned the record and
7:23
Speaker 1: every Tuesday show. Why are you so mad and thinking
7:26
Speaker 1: we wouldn't have the integrity? I just made a mistake.
7:29
Speaker 1: I read my notes wrong. Let's move on.
7:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, no fear of people. I put it on Twitter.
7:35
Speaker 2: I went fifty to fifty. I did two contests on
7:38
Speaker 2: Dobbs to contest on will Levis. Luckily the two that
7:41
Speaker 2: were on will Levis came through. So yeah, it stinks
7:45
Speaker 2: we lost the Dobbs ones, but still live. Still live
7:48
Speaker 2: in two big money contests, so we're not We're not
7:51
Speaker 2: totally dead yet. I did switch on the show to
7:54
Speaker 2: Minnesota at the very end. Dan, sorry to everyone that
7:57
Speaker 2: followed it. Yeah, that was that was one that should
7:59
Speaker 2: they should have wont on They could have won, but
8:01
Speaker 2: they didn't.
8:03
Speaker 1: All Right, we're wrapping up November. We are on to
8:05
Speaker 1: week thirteen.
8:08
Speaker 3: Super Bowl. Greens that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker
8:13
Speaker 3: and fade, and the autumn shadows and hopes that were
8:17
Speaker 3: high in the heat of September, and will and die
8:20
Speaker 3: in the chill of November.
8:23
Speaker 1: Seattle at Dallas Thursday Night football. Dallas is an eight
8:28
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Look, the Seahawks have been
8:33
Speaker 1: truly awful since that Ravens game. Yeah, really a lot
8:36
Speaker 1: of problems scoring points. Gino. I'm assuming he'll be a
8:40
Speaker 1: little bit healthier with the ten days off since the
8:42
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Day game. I can see why the number is
8:45
Speaker 1: what it is, especially with what's up.
8:50
Speaker 2: Right.
8:50
Speaker 1: You're right, Yeah, you better correct me because otherwise Bill
8:53
Speaker 1: is going to drop in him out of God, Bill,
8:56
Speaker 1: I am so. I can see why the number is
8:59
Speaker 1: what it is. With Dallas blowing out in Seattle getting
9:02
Speaker 1: blown out. Normally we'd want to fade the team that
9:05
Speaker 1: just did the blowing out. Yeah, but this Seattle Seattle
9:08
Speaker 1: team shows no signs of life and Dallas is in
9:10
Speaker 1: a spot that they love. Big favorites at home, Dack
9:15
Speaker 1: thirty eleven and one against the spread. As a favorite
9:18
Speaker 1: of six points for more.
9:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then we talked coming to the season, I
9:24
Speaker 2: thought of all the teams that could have a step
9:27
Speaker 2: back because of the quarterback position, we said it was Gino,
9:30
Speaker 2: just because the second half of last year, when teams
9:33
Speaker 2: seemed like they kind of figured it out Gino, they
9:35
Speaker 2: started struggling to the CEA Yhawks. And this year, you know,
9:39
Speaker 2: some games he'll play well. I mean they've had some
9:41
Speaker 2: big wins. They had that big win against Detroit I
9:43
Speaker 2: think that went no overtime. Early in the season, you know,
9:46
Speaker 2: Gino was kind of getting away with it. Her're like,
9:48
Speaker 2: you know what, maybe he maybe can overcome these teams
9:50
Speaker 2: scheming against him. And like you just said, he's really
9:53
Speaker 2: come back down to earth. I mean last week they
9:56
Speaker 2: were never in it against the forty nine ers. I
9:58
Speaker 2: mean they had to pick six and they still love
10:00
Speaker 2: by double digits. They're just they're being outclassed. And that's
10:06
Speaker 2: kind of life when you have a guy who's good.
10:09
Speaker 2: Gino's good, but he's not that upper echelon, Like he's
10:13
Speaker 2: not a top twelve guy, and you're playing these really
10:17
Speaker 2: good teams and these really good defenses. You kind of
10:19
Speaker 2: need that and Dallas is a really good defense. So
10:23
Speaker 2: if this wasn't a Thursday, Chad, you know I feel
10:26
Speaker 2: about Thursdays. Thursdays, I usually like the home team, especially Chalky.
10:31
Speaker 2: I want to go Seahawks year and maybe I'll just wait.
10:33
Speaker 2: This could get the ten. I'm seeing a lot of
10:35
Speaker 2: books show nine and a half right now in the
10:36
Speaker 2: Seahawks this. If this gets the ten, I would come
10:38
Speaker 2: on the Seahawks. But at eight and a half the
10:41
Speaker 2: book Chad's looking at, I probably would go Dallas here.
10:43
Speaker 2: If you want that number, I totally get it. But
10:45
Speaker 2: for me, I have no bet on this game. Probably
10:48
Speaker 2: just do another primetime under. I mean I can't stop
10:49
Speaker 2: hitting these primetime undershad so Yeah, if you're looking for
10:53
Speaker 2: the easy, lazy bet, bet on the Dallas defense, go
10:56
Speaker 2: with the primetime under. I guess.
10:59
Speaker 1: By the way, the three six five is at nine
11:01
Speaker 1: right now, and the total on this game is forty
11:04
Speaker 1: six and a half. Yeah, I mean the problem is
11:08
Speaker 1: Dallas could run up the score. We saw what they
11:10
Speaker 1: did against Washington and we're going to talk about the
11:12
Speaker 1: Commanders later in the show. It's a tricky one, a
11:15
Speaker 1: real tricky one. Yeah, kind of a pass all the
11:18
Speaker 1: way around. It's gonna be a good night to you know,
11:22
Speaker 1: watch a movie with your significant other and tell them
11:24
Speaker 1: how much you love them instead of it because you're watching.
11:26
Speaker 1: You're doing that instead of washing football. All right, let's
11:29
Speaker 1: talk about these fucking Chargers. Chargers on the road at
11:34
Speaker 1: New England right now. The number for this game with
11:39
Speaker 1: the Chargers on the freaking road, I can't believe we're
11:42
Speaker 1: even talking about this. They are six point favorites at
11:45
Speaker 1: New England. I feel like, as much as we can
11:48
Speaker 1: in the Internet age, we swore a blood oath we
11:51
Speaker 1: would not bet on the Patriots anymore, like it doesn't matter,
11:55
Speaker 1: which almost doesn't. We're gonna stick to that because you
11:58
Speaker 1: believe in my quarterback. There are three levels of bad
12:01
Speaker 1: quarterbacks when you're betting, and Mac Jones has reached the
12:04
Speaker 1: level of Zach Wilson, who has now been benched. You
12:07
Speaker 1: don't bet on Mac Jones no matter what the number,
12:09
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter because if your quarterback can't execute, they
12:12
Speaker 1: can't score any points at all. I don't believe Bailey
12:15
Speaker 1: Zappi is any better Bailey Zappi on Sunday Night, though
12:20
Speaker 1: as a better you were leaning Patriots five and a half.
12:24
Speaker 1: You could argue Brandon Stalely is into your touchdown road favorite,
12:27
Speaker 1: no match for Bill Belichick. Yeah, that was when Bill
12:30
Speaker 1: Belichick actually had players on his team. And I can
12:34
Speaker 1: give you some stay Ats favorite stats if you'd like,
12:38
Speaker 1: but I want to hear what we have to say.
12:39
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if this is an Evan stat,
12:41
Speaker 2: but there's only two games this year. A team is
12:43
Speaker 2: lost and they've held their opponent to ten points or less.
12:46
Speaker 2: And it's the Patriots and back to back weeks they
12:48
Speaker 2: have back to back weeks, why held the team they
12:50
Speaker 2: played against to ten points or less and they've lost
12:53
Speaker 2: both those games. I think that perfectly summarizes this Patriots
12:56
Speaker 2: team and what they are this season. And you nailed it.
12:59
Speaker 2: Mac Jones clearly broken. If you go back and watch
13:02
Speaker 2: those interceptions, all ribal like doesn't even look like he
13:07
Speaker 2: played in college like he looks like yeah, like looks
13:11
Speaker 2: like a total total mismatch for him. So totally get it.
13:14
Speaker 2: I got to take the six. I don't care if
13:17
Speaker 2: it's the worst team in football. I can't back the
13:19
Speaker 2: Chargers getting more than six. This is a broken team.
13:23
Speaker 2: Their offense is terrible, it's all just terrible for the Chargers.
13:27
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I gave my word. We would never
13:29
Speaker 2: put these guys in the same thing. We're a Carolina like,
13:31
Speaker 2: no matter what, I'm fading Carolina. Maybe that changes now
13:34
Speaker 2: they fired Frank, but the Patriots have made zero moves.
13:38
Speaker 2: I don't care if they make a QB change. That
13:40
Speaker 2: doesn't really do anything for me at this point with
13:42
Speaker 2: this team. So I don't feel comfortable making this one
13:44
Speaker 2: of my five biggest bets of the week, so I'll
13:46
Speaker 2: pass on it.
13:47
Speaker 1: And I promise we're not putting the Patriots. Yeah, we're
13:51
Speaker 1: not going to put him in the five, but betting
13:53
Speaker 1: dogs in low total games the NFL underdogs in games
13:57
Speaker 1: with total below forty two sixty percent against the spread
14:02
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, including thirty six, twenty five and two
14:06
Speaker 1: this season, So similarly, this week, it's a low light
14:11
Speaker 1: real of patheticness. Cleveland, Arizona, Carolina, the Jets, New England, Cincinnati.
14:20
Speaker 1: There is one team on that list that I feel
14:23
Speaker 1: might end up in our five, and it's not the
14:25
Speaker 1: New England Patriots, So we will move on. Detroit at
14:28
Speaker 1: New Orleans. Right now, New Orleans is a four point
14:33
Speaker 1: underdog at home. I can't recall. Can you remind me?
14:38
Speaker 1: On Sunday night? Did you say you liked New Orleans?
14:42
Speaker 1: Was it a bad dream that I had. I took
14:44
Speaker 1: a lot of melatonin on Sunday night. Just go sleep.
14:46
Speaker 1: What did we say?
14:48
Speaker 2: No, I told you to grab the minus three and
14:50
Speaker 2: a half in the lock. That's just a case. The
14:52
Speaker 2: line went way up and as it moved as which
14:55
Speaker 2: I thought, I thought this would be six by now. Honestly,
14:57
Speaker 2: like I mean, one of my worst calls, Derek Carr
15:02
Speaker 2: in the red zone. It's just a total shit show.
15:06
Speaker 2: This guy is just horrible. Once he gets in the
15:08
Speaker 2: red zone between the twenties, he looks like what I
15:11
Speaker 2: believe he is, which is a good quarterback that can
15:13
Speaker 2: move the ball and make good reads. But once he
15:16
Speaker 2: gets in that red zone, he just gets so flustered
15:18
Speaker 2: and he's so bad. Detroit's the complete opposite. Like they
15:21
Speaker 2: get to the red zone, it's like, we know exactly
15:23
Speaker 2: what we want to do here. We're gonna run it
15:25
Speaker 2: down your throat for two plays and if that doesn't work,
15:27
Speaker 2: I'll throw it to my tight end or Armine Saint Brown.
15:29
Speaker 2: It's like it's just all working for Detroit, and I know,
15:33
Speaker 2: like I said last week, my big thing for them
15:36
Speaker 2: is they're coming off such a bad loss. That's why
15:38
Speaker 2: I like them here where it's like you had a
15:41
Speaker 2: bad loss, you got to sit on it for whatever
15:43
Speaker 2: it is, ten to eleven days. Because they played on Thursday,
15:46
Speaker 2: you expect. I mean, if this is going to be
15:48
Speaker 2: the team we talk about it's gonna win their division,
15:50
Speaker 2: be a playoff team, that they should come out and
15:53
Speaker 2: just absolutely destroy this same team. You're fired up all
15:55
Speaker 2: week and you take out all that frustration on this team.
15:58
Speaker 2: It's a chalky pick right now now. As confident I
16:00
Speaker 2: was someday and night with it because I really did
16:02
Speaker 2: think it would be six by now on Tuesday. So interesting,
16:05
Speaker 2: it hasn't moved as much as these other games, but
16:07
Speaker 2: I still like Detroit. I'd probably still take them a
16:09
Speaker 2: minus four. That's that's good value for them.
16:13
Speaker 1: Hello Detroit, I'm gonna give you some analysis that is
16:21
Speaker 1: going to make you feel better. So you know, yesterday
16:23
Speaker 1: I was doing my research. Everyone likes to talk about
16:26
Speaker 1: the Saints d as if they've been something special. So
16:29
Speaker 1: it's really their coverage defense that has been good. And
16:34
Speaker 1: then this past week they were freaking terrible against Desmond Ritter.
16:39
Speaker 1: You know what they're missing Marshawn Lattimore, who is now
16:42
Speaker 1: on IR The Saints pass rush great according to Pro
16:45
Speaker 1: Football Focus, bottom of the league, and they are middle
16:47
Speaker 1: of the road against the run, and they're playing one
16:50
Speaker 1: of the better run teams in the league. I could
16:52
Speaker 1: easily see Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson decide and we're
16:55
Speaker 1: going to run it down the Saints throat because they
16:57
Speaker 1: can't really defend against the run, and on thecasional times
17:01
Speaker 1: they need to go play action and throw it over
17:03
Speaker 1: the middle to Laporta or to a mom ross Saint Brown.
17:06
Speaker 1: It's not very good coverage. That is missing their best
17:10
Speaker 1: defensive back. I kind of don't mind the Lions here,
17:13
Speaker 1: especially at four. Yeah, Arizona, pitt My kids want to
17:18
Speaker 1: have a good course. The Cardinals rush defense is so bad,
17:21
Speaker 1: worse than the NFL across all the stats that matter.
17:24
Speaker 1: Here's what makes me nervous about backing Pittsburgh. Kyler's ability
17:28
Speaker 1: to scramble basically makes every time he goes out of
17:30
Speaker 1: the pocket a first down. So betting on Pittsburgh here
17:33
Speaker 1: it makes me a little antsy.
17:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, but lucky for Pittsburgh. They see Lamar twice a year,
17:37
Speaker 2: so they know exactly what to do against the style quarterback.
17:40
Speaker 2: And this number is huge. Why is this not three
17:44
Speaker 2: and a half four? I feel like they would have
17:46
Speaker 2: got the same amount of money on both sides if
17:47
Speaker 2: they'd kept it down there, but they obviously jacked it up.
17:50
Speaker 2: I think it was six. I mean, you talked her,
17:53
Speaker 2: maybe it was five and a half, but I got
17:54
Speaker 2: up to six. Now it's come back down, So the
17:56
Speaker 2: pros think it's good. They think the number where it
17:58
Speaker 2: should be. Like Pittsburgh, I liked the number. I like
18:02
Speaker 2: that fact they have two running backs that both could
18:05
Speaker 2: do really well against this Cardinals team. And we talked
18:08
Speaker 2: last week a little bit about the change they made
18:10
Speaker 2: at OC. They didn't get the points last week, but
18:12
Speaker 2: they got the yards like they had over four hundred yards.
18:15
Speaker 2: And I know that doesn't sound like a big deal,
18:17
Speaker 2: but it is to me in the sense that that
18:18
Speaker 2: gives belief to Kenny and a lot of the other
18:21
Speaker 2: guys in the offense they can do it, and that
18:23
Speaker 2: they weren't the problem and they needed a change because
18:25
Speaker 2: since he's not a terrible defense, I mean that defense
18:27
Speaker 2: was playing hard yeah, yeah, and they were still moving
18:31
Speaker 2: the ball. They're much better than Arizona's defense. So I'm
18:35
Speaker 2: trying to best I cannot the react to it, but
18:38
Speaker 2: we might be getting value your chat because the books
18:41
Speaker 2: maybe they haven't caught up to this new style of
18:43
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offense. So you could technically be finding value here
18:48
Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh. Again, no bets on it yet, but definitely
18:50
Speaker 2: a line to keep your eye on.
18:51
Speaker 1: Here's what makes me nervous about that number. The Steelers
18:54
Speaker 1: going to want to run the ball. They know the
18:55
Speaker 1: same thing that we knew that the Rams knew. That
18:58
Speaker 1: lends itself to longer drives, that lends itself to lower
19:02
Speaker 1: scoring for a team that is already low scoring, and
19:05
Speaker 1: that means the back door is always open with a
19:08
Speaker 1: team that can be sort of unpredictable because of what
19:12
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray can do.
19:13
Speaker 2: No, it's totally fair. Yeah, that actually does scare me
19:15
Speaker 2: off the court Pittsburgh a little bit thinking about that.
19:18
Speaker 1: I'm crossing it off. Then this next game, however, Atlanta
19:22
Speaker 1: at New York Jets. Right now, this number is Jets
19:28
Speaker 1: plus two and a half at home. Listen. It makes
19:31
Speaker 1: me sick to say it I think the Jets are
19:33
Speaker 1: the side here.
19:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's a fear of what do we beten
19:37
Speaker 2: into here chat, We've been into a team that simply
19:40
Speaker 2: quit because that's a quitting game. Last week, you got
19:43
Speaker 2: embarrassed in a standalone game at home. That was so
19:47
Speaker 2: embarrassing as a Jets backer last week. So yeah, the
19:51
Speaker 2: values on the Jets. I mean, Desmond Ritter guy is
19:54
Speaker 2: an incredible athlete. He's a bad quarterback, and last week
19:58
Speaker 2: it should be a highly real for him for the
20:00
Speaker 2: rest of his life. He had to throw off his
20:02
Speaker 2: back foot to Robinson for a touchdown that was like
20:05
Speaker 2: one of the best passes I've ever seen. Like the
20:07
Speaker 2: guy had a blitzer in his face, threw off his
20:10
Speaker 2: back foot before Bejhon even broke into the route like open,
20:14
Speaker 2: and it was right on target in the bread basket downfield.
20:17
Speaker 2: And it's like, Okay, this guy is just an incredible athlete,
20:19
Speaker 2: that's what he is. But he's just not a quarterback.
20:21
Speaker 2: So give us a three. I've seen a couple of
20:24
Speaker 2: books pop three and then they've gone back to two
20:25
Speaker 2: and a half. Give us the Jets of three and
20:28
Speaker 2: Jets of three and a half in contest, would he'd
20:29
Speaker 2: be even better. But I hate the Jets. Man. I
20:32
Speaker 2: know our fans too. They're not going to back us here.
20:34
Speaker 2: They're not gonna to bet this team right now. The
20:36
Speaker 2: current number two and a half no play, but three
20:39
Speaker 2: three and a half. Yes, I like the Jets.
20:41
Speaker 1: I think it'll get to three. All of the money
20:43
Speaker 1: is coming in on the Falcons right now, so I
20:46
Speaker 1: think it's going to move. And like you said, that's
20:47
Speaker 1: why I.
20:47
Speaker 2: Don't get why I came down. It's like, who, what
20:49
Speaker 2: asshole professional came and was like, yeah, I'm taking the
20:51
Speaker 2: Jets here. It's like, dude, just wait.
20:53
Speaker 1: I look at it differently, like they just came off
20:55
Speaker 1: a stretch where they played justin Herbert, Josh Allen and
20:59
Speaker 1: two in three of the past four weeks. They're going
21:02
Speaker 1: to look at how bad Desmond Ritter is and they're
21:05
Speaker 1: gonna think to myself themselves, what a fucking relief. The
21:08
Speaker 1: total in this game is thirty four totals of thirty
21:10
Speaker 1: seven or less twenty two four and one to the under.
21:14
Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty thirty eight or less thirty two to
21:16
Speaker 1: eleven and one to the under. I think there's some
21:18
Speaker 1: factors here that might might go our way Indianapolis visiting Tennessee.
21:24
Speaker 1: Tennessee's a two point underdog. Indianapolis right now seventh in
21:28
Speaker 1: the AFC in the playoff race, so they are in
21:31
Speaker 1: just ahead of Houston, just ahead of Denver, who are
21:33
Speaker 1: playing each other this week. I feel like, normally this
21:36
Speaker 1: is a smash Mike Rabel spot, Don't forget, Don't forget
21:43
Speaker 1: Rabel twenty five and twenty seven straight up as a dog,
21:47
Speaker 1: one of the most profitable coaches the past twenty years.
21:50
Speaker 1: As a dog is a home dog twelve eight and
21:53
Speaker 1: one No. Twelve to eight, straight up and against the spread.
21:58
Speaker 1: So like, I think, I like the Titans here.
22:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta do it home divisional dog Vrabel. I
22:06
Speaker 2: mean that too is long gone.
22:10
Speaker 1: What is it right now? Why are my numbers not updated?
22:12
Speaker 1: You're right, it's now down to one.
22:15
Speaker 2: It's because I'm moving the numbers, baby. No, But really,
22:17
Speaker 2: I like that was one of the bigger bets I've
22:19
Speaker 2: made since I've gotten back in Jersey, Like got off
22:21
Speaker 2: the airplane, went right to the book, made a couple
22:24
Speaker 2: of big bets and one of them was Tennessee. Just
22:28
Speaker 2: loved the spot, Like you're getting Minshew Outdoors. This Colt team,
22:35
Speaker 2: I don't know how they're not way up there in
22:37
Speaker 2: the luck rank. I feel like they're one of the
22:38
Speaker 2: luckier teams this season. They just have had a lot
22:40
Speaker 2: of things bounced their way. Tennessee is the opposite in
22:44
Speaker 2: the sense that you know, they've had the grill Levis
22:48
Speaker 2: growing pains. But like you'll see these flashes every now
22:51
Speaker 2: and then, like that game last week where it's like
22:53
Speaker 2: he's in the pocket and he makes these throws that
22:56
Speaker 2: are like really nice on target and pushing the ball downfield,
23:00
Speaker 2: and then the next play will be like, you know,
23:03
Speaker 2: third and two and he can't do a little dump
23:05
Speaker 2: off to a guy on the backfield. It's it's definitely experienced,
23:09
Speaker 2: betten this guy Will Levis check. I'll play you that much.
23:11
Speaker 1: But yeah, he can freaking sling the ball.
23:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's just I don't know if he's an idiot
23:18
Speaker 2: or he just uh, there's just like little things he
23:21
Speaker 2: does where it's like, Okay, I see now why he
23:24
Speaker 2: was a second round pick, because like everyone else, after
23:28
Speaker 2: that first game, it's like, this kid's got crazy arm talent.
23:30
Speaker 2: How did he not go in the first round? And
23:32
Speaker 2: now we're a couple of weeks in here, it's like, Okay,
23:35
Speaker 2: this guy makes sense the second round he's got obviously
23:38
Speaker 2: he's got some weaknesses, but yeah, in this matchup here,
23:43
Speaker 2: such a good number. You know, this was gonna be
23:46
Speaker 2: one of my favorite teaser games. Sadly it's come down,
23:48
Speaker 2: like we just talked about it, Sat plus one of
23:50
Speaker 2: a lot of books. If the flips me and Chat
23:53
Speaker 2: tries to stay away from those. We don't like the
23:55
Speaker 2: dogs that flip the Favorites. That's not been good to
23:57
Speaker 2: us so well. It did work out last week with
24:00
Speaker 2: the Rams, but usually it's not the best spot to
24:03
Speaker 2: be in. But looking at this one, yeah, if you
24:06
Speaker 2: can get the one and a half, we can get
24:07
Speaker 2: plus one and a half in our contest. We'll wind
24:10
Speaker 2: up on Tennessee for sure on Sunday.
24:12
Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
24:15
Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube right now,
24:19
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a light and subscribe to
24:21
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. All right, very interesting game
24:25
Speaker 1: here Miami at Washington, Washington right now. Updated line plus
24:33
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Look, this is when you talked
24:37
Speaker 1: about Sunday night when it was nine, now it's at
24:39
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I do feel like, if you
24:41
Speaker 1: like Washington, this is going to get to ten. Their
24:44
Speaker 1: defense is truly awful, especially since they got rid of
24:47
Speaker 1: Chase Young and Montes Sweat. They had that dead cat
24:49
Speaker 1: bounce against the Patriots and then they've just been dreadful.
24:53
Speaker 1: But the Dolphins do not dominate on the road the
24:55
Speaker 1: way they have at home against bad teams. And we've
24:58
Speaker 1: seen the early pro money on Washington teams who lose
25:02
Speaker 1: by seventeen or more playing a team that won by
25:06
Speaker 1: seventeen or more the previous week sixty percent against the
25:09
Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years. That includes Seattle, Washington, Cleveland.
25:15
Speaker 2: Diamond says, take the Washington Commanders, we do what.
25:27
Speaker 1: Wow.
25:28
Speaker 2: I will not be letting this get to ten. I refuse.
25:31
Speaker 2: I will smash whatever book hangs at ten on this.
25:35
Speaker 2: I just nailed it. It's yes Commander's defense. They are
25:39
Speaker 2: bad now since they've moved all these players offensively, I
25:43
Speaker 2: could see them being able to stay in this one.
25:45
Speaker 2: So looking at this matchup, the splits between two at
25:51
Speaker 2: home on the road, they're not that egregious, but they
25:53
Speaker 2: are a difference like it is a big deal. If
25:56
Speaker 2: you mix in some of this north Northeast weather, like
25:59
Speaker 2: if it's a little cold, a little wet, that also
26:02
Speaker 2: is gonna favor this this Washington team where everything Miami
26:05
Speaker 2: does is based on speed and deception, Like they just
26:08
Speaker 2: they make you put your head on a swivel and
26:10
Speaker 2: making guys move with the line and then just bring
26:12
Speaker 2: you down the field. They're a team that they don't
26:16
Speaker 2: want to be playing this this Northeast foot but they
26:18
Speaker 2: don't want to be in these cold, drag it out,
26:20
Speaker 2: sloppy kind of games. And Washington could pull teams into
26:23
Speaker 2: the mudd here, like they got two really good running backs.
26:27
Speaker 2: You know, there's there's a little things that pop up
26:29
Speaker 2: here where you want to take Washington. Then you mix
26:31
Speaker 2: in this is the December game. It's like, man, we
26:34
Speaker 2: got to do This is such a big number for
26:36
Speaker 2: a washingt team that is bad. Are they really a
26:38
Speaker 2: ten point nine points worse than Miami? No, that is
26:42
Speaker 2: such an overreaction about the public and movement of this line.
26:45
Speaker 2: So I mean, I'm not saying I got three points
26:48
Speaker 2: of value on this line, but yeah, like I make
26:49
Speaker 2: this six and a half, it's nine and a half.
26:52
Speaker 2: That's a lot of value right now for Washington. So
26:55
Speaker 2: Jack del Rio is not the problem to me. But
26:57
Speaker 2: I kept saying that he's a dinosaur. The head coach
27:00
Speaker 2: is a dinosaur. It could, but it's in the ass
27:03
Speaker 2: like it did in that Dallas game. Like what was it,
27:05
Speaker 2: fourth and two and they're on Dallas is forty and
27:09
Speaker 2: Ron Rivera punted and the game was just over. That's
27:12
Speaker 2: what I mean, Like, the guy is just a dinosaur.
27:14
Speaker 2: We're old Ron. When I've gone for it there, it's like, dude,
27:16
Speaker 2: you're a thirteen point underdog, Like you're not punting when
27:20
Speaker 2: it's fourth and two and you're in Dallas' territory in
27:22
Speaker 2: such a close game early on there. So yeah, I'll
27:26
Speaker 2: give it one more week to Ron before he's on
27:28
Speaker 2: my banded list. I wait for his ass to get fired.
27:31
Speaker 2: But got a bag Washington here in this spot, all.
27:34
Speaker 1: Right, Well this is it. By the way, home dogs
27:38
Speaker 1: are seven or more twenty one, nine and one against
27:41
Speaker 1: the spread since the start of last year. It's interesting,
27:46
Speaker 1: like we're going through these games right now Washington and Tennessee.
27:49
Speaker 1: So far those are like games that we probably feel
27:52
Speaker 1: good about. The Jets might end up on our list
27:57
Speaker 1: by virtue of not having many other ones. A couple
28:00
Speaker 1: more games that could get on there. Denver ed Houston
28:06
Speaker 1: Houston's three and a half. I think the cat is
28:10
Speaker 1: out of the bag on the Texans. This line exploded.
28:13
Speaker 1: It was a two and a half Sunday night, three
28:15
Speaker 1: and a half by Monday morning. Love the Broncos. They've
28:19
Speaker 1: been getting a lot of luck. As a Texans backer,
28:23
Speaker 1: I liked it at two and a half. I don't
28:24
Speaker 1: like it at three and a half. These guys that
28:26
Speaker 1: are eight and nine in the playoff race, just behind Indye.
28:32
Speaker 1: So I know you've got a strong feeling about Denver here.
28:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take Denver here with the movement on the line.
28:40
Speaker 2: Too much movement to me, Houston, They're good, but you
28:44
Speaker 2: keep seeing these every other week. You keep seeing these
28:46
Speaker 2: little things right where it's like this is a young
28:49
Speaker 2: immature team with a young immature quarterback and a young
28:53
Speaker 2: immature head coach, and they do little things that they
28:56
Speaker 2: helped keep these teams in these close games where it's like,
28:59
Speaker 2: you know, the mental errors and stuff they do. CG
29:03
Speaker 2: is so good. It's overcome a lot of that this season,
29:05
Speaker 2: like his big playability, his ability to move in the
29:08
Speaker 2: pocket and get outside and put the ball downfield. It's
29:11
Speaker 2: been so impressive, but it's it's Cgs a favorite. It's
29:16
Speaker 2: just it's not profitable about him as a favorite. And
29:18
Speaker 2: the fact this line's moved so much. I'm honestly shocked
29:22
Speaker 2: by it because I feel like Denver's played well for
29:25
Speaker 2: multiple weeks yere and it's not like it's not been
29:28
Speaker 2: public games like these have been games on primetime TV
29:32
Speaker 2: and even that Vikings game where they're kicking all those
29:36
Speaker 2: field goals. You know, I shouldn't have baught so much
29:40
Speaker 2: into their red zone struggles. It's just like teams have
29:43
Speaker 2: those kind of games where it's just like it's not
29:44
Speaker 2: clicking in the red zone. Of course, the next week
29:47
Speaker 2: they just dominated Cleveland's incredible defense in the red zone.
29:51
Speaker 2: It's like, that's just how football is. It's so weak
29:53
Speaker 2: the week. So Denver catching three and a half in Houston,
29:59
Speaker 2: what am I supposed to do? How do I not
30:00
Speaker 2: take this number? So this is the classic the number
30:03
Speaker 2: de side where we me and Chad go if this
30:04
Speaker 2: is two and a half, we probably would have been
30:06
Speaker 2: happy to take Houston, Like guy would have been pretty
30:08
Speaker 2: good value on them at home. It shifted though now
30:11
Speaker 2: it's up to three and a half. I'll take the
30:12
Speaker 2: value on Denver here and I hope it keeps going up,
30:15
Speaker 2: Like get us to four and a half. This is
30:17
Speaker 2: a no brainer play in the contest three and a half.
30:20
Speaker 2: Maybe I give a little, Paul, it's just because I'm
30:21
Speaker 2: a little scared of CJ.
30:23
Speaker 1: I'm a little scared of CJ. I'm even more scared
30:25
Speaker 1: of Russell Wilson after the first fifteen players. And look,
30:28
Speaker 1: we've talked about Russell Wilson. I think he's obviously played
30:31
Speaker 1: much better. But I have a lot of I put,
30:41
Speaker 1: I can pause. I'm not sure I'm the buyer on
30:45
Speaker 1: Denver three and a half in the contest contest, it's
30:48
Speaker 1: getting so it's it's nut crunch time right in the
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Speaker 1: Slash favorites fifty to get fifty percent off. Okay, new
32:06
Speaker 1: coach in Carolina. Caroline is at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
32:10
Speaker 1: right now looks like they are five and a half
32:13
Speaker 1: point favorites. Such an interesting team. Baker gets like this
32:19
Speaker 1: close for those listening, I'm holding my fingers very close together.
32:23
Speaker 1: It's weird how often he's right there, only to not
32:26
Speaker 1: be able to close it. Four one score losses this year,
32:30
Speaker 1: by the way, two of those losses that were not
32:32
Speaker 1: one scores by two touchdowns to the Eagles and the Niners,
32:35
Speaker 1: the best teams in the NFC. They were in at
32:38
Speaker 1: the entire game like fluky fluky ways to not cover.
32:44
Speaker 1: Carolina has got a new coach, This team's in disarray.
32:47
Speaker 1: Their best pick is going to the Bears, who need
32:48
Speaker 1: to draft a quarterback. We can talk about that next week.
32:52
Speaker 1: What do you think I'll pass?
32:54
Speaker 2: I got nothing on it, don't even care about it.
32:57
Speaker 2: I'm not even to research this game this week.
32:59
Speaker 1: I'll just quote TV game.
33:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally pass on it. I have no feel for
33:03
Speaker 2: this Panthers team. And I don't know if a coaching
33:05
Speaker 2: change is gonna make the difference. It just it all
33:07
Speaker 2: starts at the top. If you have shitty ownership, it
33:10
Speaker 2: just trickles down. And right now Carolina has one of
33:12
Speaker 2: the worst owners in all football. So a billionaire guy
33:16
Speaker 2: comes in, a guy who's been successful his whole life,
33:18
Speaker 2: and he thinks he knows what's what, and he doesn't
33:21
Speaker 2: know ball he doesn't know how to evaluate players, doesn't
33:24
Speaker 2: know to hire a coaches. I mean, someone puts some
33:27
Speaker 2: crazy stat He's got two coaches, he's paying well over
33:30
Speaker 2: twenty million to each, and they fired both of them
33:32
Speaker 2: after a cup of coffee. It's just it's a train
33:34
Speaker 2: wreck in Carolina. Yeah, Bears, Bears fans, you can shoot
33:38
Speaker 2: on your gym all you want. He made the perfect
33:41
Speaker 2: trade at that draft and just set you guys up
33:45
Speaker 2: for the future in so many ways. I mean, it's
33:47
Speaker 2: just I can't get over it. I can't be about
33:49
Speaker 2: to say this. I might end up on Bucks in
33:50
Speaker 2: our survival pool. That's just that's how bad I think
33:53
Speaker 2: this Panthers team is.
33:54
Speaker 1: Listen, if we're gonna have bucks in the survivor pool,
33:56
Speaker 1: can you make sure to email Bill and also just
33:59
Speaker 1: be very very clear about where we're going to land,
34:02
Speaker 1: because we don't want to make any mistakes on that.
34:04
Speaker 2: God damn you, Bill.
34:05
Speaker 1: We talked about the marquee matchup of the week, San
34:08
Speaker 1: Francisco at Philadelphia. Philadelphia bet three sixty five is still
34:13
Speaker 1: a two and a half, but a lot of places
34:15
Speaker 1: are at three. What a swing like? When we were
34:18
Speaker 1: going on air on Sunday night, before the Bill's Eagles
34:22
Speaker 1: game had ended. This line was San Francisco plus two
34:25
Speaker 1: and a half. In the middle of the show, it
34:27
Speaker 1: went down to plus one. I tried to bet it
34:30
Speaker 1: at plus one, and the odds changed as I was
34:34
Speaker 1: making the bet to San Francisco minus one. Now it's
34:37
Speaker 1: two and a half. And that is We've talked about this.
34:40
Speaker 1: We just taped a Green Dye Daily segment. That's wise
34:44
Speaker 1: guy money. That's moving it and like it is crazy
34:50
Speaker 1: how much love there is for this Niners team. But
34:55
Speaker 1: they are really freaking good.
35:00
Speaker 3: Yeah.
35:00
Speaker 2: No, they're really good. And they're healthy and that's probably
35:02
Speaker 2: the difference here. They're healthy. The Eagles aren't healthy. But
35:07
Speaker 2: at what point does this move too much? Chat is
35:09
Speaker 2: talking about this line has moved five and a half
35:12
Speaker 2: points now, like five and a half points. Yeah. So
35:17
Speaker 2: that's the only thing that's scares me because deep down
35:20
Speaker 2: I'm getting Hurts at home plus three. It's a no
35:23
Speaker 2: brainer pick. It's like getting Mahomes the under the three, right.
35:26
Speaker 2: It's like, even though it didn't work the previous week
35:30
Speaker 2: against the Eagles, if I got catches the ball, that's
35:33
Speaker 2: a nice bet on Mahomes and same thing goes here
35:34
Speaker 2: with Hurts, where it's like it might not win this week.
35:38
Speaker 2: But if you've been betting Hurts at home, especially on
35:41
Speaker 2: the money line, he's only had one loss in two
35:44
Speaker 2: years at home, It's it's crazy, But that's just that,
35:48
Speaker 2: that's fact, Like, that's what the number is. So it's
35:51
Speaker 2: the team that even if we're down twenty four to
35:54
Speaker 2: ten in the fourth quarter, you still feel like you
35:58
Speaker 2: have a chance to cover with this number. This Eagles team,
36:00
Speaker 2: they just never give up. They never die. So yeah,
36:04
Speaker 2: I'm I bet it. I've taken I've already bet this
36:07
Speaker 2: again for a little amounts. If this ends up three
36:11
Speaker 2: three and a half, man, that's gonna be hard for
36:15
Speaker 2: me to pass on, especially where Lane Johnson could play
36:17
Speaker 2: like it's just he basically has an injury where if
36:20
Speaker 2: he wakes up and his lower bodies locked up, that's
36:22
Speaker 2: why he sat out right. If he can't move right,
36:26
Speaker 2: he's not gonna play like he's committed to that. He
36:28
Speaker 2: says he doesn't want to risk hurting Hurts because he's hurt.
36:31
Speaker 2: If he wakes up and he's feeling good and Lane
36:34
Speaker 2: Johnson can play, I guarantee you this number it sounds
36:37
Speaker 2: crazy to say if I guarantee this number would drop just
36:39
Speaker 2: because he's that important to the Eagles and all the
36:41
Speaker 2: trends with him in the lineup and out of the
36:43
Speaker 2: lineup are a big deal. So yeah, if you want
36:46
Speaker 2: to grab the value right now and grab the Eagles
36:50
Speaker 2: plus three, I'm on it with you. But the pro's
36:53
Speaker 2: note man, like, this is very telling that this has
36:56
Speaker 2: moved so much, especially such at high profile game, aim
37:00
Speaker 2: that this will be pretty crazy, pretty crazy it's moved
37:04
Speaker 2: this much. So again, I'm not going crazy on it.
37:07
Speaker 2: I need to talk to people, figure out who's betting this,
37:10
Speaker 2: groups are betting this, why they're moving it while they're
37:12
Speaker 2: so all in on this forty nine Ers team. But
37:13
Speaker 2: I kind of I feel like I kind of know
37:15
Speaker 2: where It's like they're the healthier team. This is a
37:19
Speaker 2: spot they've had marked on their calendar for over a year.
37:22
Speaker 2: Like we saw how the Eagles played against the Chiefs.
37:25
Speaker 2: Like you're pissed off when a team knocks you out
37:27
Speaker 2: from the previous year. That's just these are growing men
37:29
Speaker 2: who remember that kind of stuff. It's got to be
37:31
Speaker 2: the same for the Chiefs, I mean for the forty
37:33
Speaker 2: nine ers, Like, think of all the shit they talked
37:35
Speaker 2: the whole offseason. Man if our coach, if our QB
37:38
Speaker 2: didn't get hurt, like you know, we would have won
37:40
Speaker 2: that game. They got lucky, all all those things like
37:44
Speaker 2: that's that's real. Like those fore Niners players really believe
37:46
Speaker 2: they're the better team, and this to them. I think
37:49
Speaker 2: Chattery talked about it. It's like approving spot of if
37:52
Speaker 2: they win this, what they have the Ravens left chat
37:55
Speaker 2: is one last tough game.
37:57
Speaker 1: Their last hard game, their remaining schedule. Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens
38:04
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, Commanders Rams at home, like this is
38:10
Speaker 1: a game that puts them in potential to contend for
38:14
Speaker 1: the number one seed and potentially gets Christian McCaffrey or
38:18
Speaker 1: brought Party the MVP.
38:20
Speaker 2: So I mean, this is everything. I guess is this
38:23
Speaker 2: is as close as you can get to a true
38:25
Speaker 2: playoff game here in December. So yeah, I can't wait.
38:29
Speaker 2: We'll be at the bar watch with all the people,
38:31
Speaker 2: and we will if this gets the three three and
38:35
Speaker 2: a half contest. How do we not have this one
38:39
Speaker 2: in there? There's just such a big line.
38:40
Speaker 1: Dude, it's so hard, like this Niners team seven homegrown
38:46
Speaker 1: All pros on their team. These are guys they drafted,
38:51
Speaker 1: developed became all pros, right, And you and I are
38:55
Speaker 1: going to dive deeper into this tomorrow we'll do the
38:58
Speaker 1: YouTube exclusive Favorites Film Room. We're going to talk about Deebo,
39:02
Speaker 1: Samuel and a little bit about Trent Williams. And we
39:05
Speaker 1: talked about this on Sunday night. The difference in this
39:09
Speaker 1: Niners team between when those two guys were out before
39:12
Speaker 1: the bye and they lost three in a row, and
39:14
Speaker 1: then they got healthy and they've been back since. They
39:18
Speaker 1: are a dominant, dominant team. And I think this line
39:21
Speaker 1: would have opened at three given how the Eagles have played.
39:25
Speaker 1: If those guys have been healthy all season, right, it
39:27
Speaker 1: wouldn't have sort of moved in that direction. But the
39:33
Speaker 1: Eagles are one of those teams, and they are, you know,
39:37
Speaker 1: according to our luck rankings, one of the luckier teams
39:40
Speaker 1: this year. But I think that diminishes their mindset, their
39:45
Speaker 1: coaching staff and how they put themselves in positions to
39:49
Speaker 1: win and they take advantage of the opportunity. Right, look
39:53
Speaker 1: at a bad team like the Bears that had that
39:56
Speaker 1: forced four turnovers last night against the Vikings, scored three
40:00
Speaker 1: points off the turnovers and barely won the game. And
40:05
Speaker 1: a team like the Eagles that also gets lucky but
40:09
Speaker 1: then takes advantage. That's just understanding your position and playing
40:15
Speaker 1: championship football. So it's really hard not to bet on
40:18
Speaker 1: the Niners, I mean, on the Eagles as three point
40:21
Speaker 1: home underdogs.
40:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just the classic case of Eagles are so
40:26
Speaker 2: good people are looking for reasons to make them bad.
40:30
Speaker 2: Like we already talked about, they're the best team ATS
40:33
Speaker 2: this year. So we have a team that went to
40:35
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl last year, lost and somehow has the
40:38
Speaker 2: best ATS record on football. That does not happen people,
40:41
Speaker 2: you go through the history, rarely does that happen. You
40:44
Speaker 2: need to be really mentally tough to have that kind
40:46
Speaker 2: of thing, because not only do you have a target
40:49
Speaker 2: on your back, the book has a target on you.
40:51
Speaker 2: Like the books know the public is going to be
40:54
Speaker 2: heavy on this team.
40:54
Speaker 1: Every line is going to be inflated, yes.
40:57
Speaker 2: And somehow, as lucky as they've been, they keep covering.
41:00
Speaker 2: And it's the Hurts factor. I mean, just take that
41:04
Speaker 2: overtime game. Nothing against Josh Allen, He's incredible, played an
41:08
Speaker 2: incredible game, but in the biggest moment, him and Gabe
41:12
Speaker 2: Davis weren't on the same page. Gave Davis went one
41:14
Speaker 2: way wide open, Josh Allen threw the ball the other way.
41:17
Speaker 2: The ball lands in the end zone on the grass,
41:19
Speaker 2: Hurts gets the ball back. What's he do? He drives
41:21
Speaker 2: the field and scores a touchdown? Like was he lucky
41:24
Speaker 2: or is that a guy that's a difference maker, a
41:26
Speaker 2: game changer. So that's the toughest part with egos, where
41:28
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, they're getting lucky, but like you just said, Chad,
41:31
Speaker 2: they're taking advantage of that luck and turning into wins.
41:34
Speaker 2: So it again, as a professional, this number scares a
41:38
Speaker 2: shit out of me because this is truly the classic
41:41
Speaker 2: case of the pros no and the public. They're idiots,
41:45
Speaker 2: they don't get it. Like the public. Everyone's I'm assuming's
41:47
Speaker 2: going to be on this Eagles team. But early in
41:50
Speaker 2: the week here, all the money, all the bets for
41:52
Speaker 2: the most part right now are on the forty nine ers.
41:54
Speaker 2: So again, it's early in the week, but it's definitely
41:56
Speaker 2: interesting that the professionals have taken a major stand here
41:59
Speaker 2: and will You're getting some sharp calls for sure on
42:02
Speaker 2: this game.
42:03
Speaker 1: Yeah. Actually, I can't wait to hear them. I'm so excited.
42:07
Speaker 1: We are going to be as everyone knows, we're going
42:09
Speaker 1: to be doing the live show on Sunday Shepherd and
42:13
Speaker 1: the Knucklehead in New Jersey. But the doors open before
42:17
Speaker 1: the four pm games. They open around three forty five.
42:19
Speaker 1: Simon and I will be there. Will definitely be sweat
42:21
Speaker 1: in some afternoon games for the contest and otherwise, and
42:25
Speaker 1: this will be This will not be the corner TV game.
42:28
Speaker 1: This game will be front and center. Here's an interesting
42:32
Speaker 1: stat from Evan that leans in favor of the Eagles.
42:36
Speaker 1: Teams that open as underdogs and close as favorites historically
42:40
Speaker 1: struggled to cover fifty two eighty seven against the spread
42:45
Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen twenty two and forty against the spread
42:48
Speaker 1: the last two seasons. So and this numbers move. This
42:51
Speaker 1: isn't like plus one to minus one. This is a huge,
42:56
Speaker 1: huge swing.
42:57
Speaker 2: Interesting people, you gotta get the last show. This might
43:00
Speaker 2: be me and Chad's last live show because I'm gonna
43:03
Speaker 2: be drinking during an Eagles game. I think the live
43:06
Speaker 2: show is the door's open. I think it's a four
43:09
Speaker 2: or five hour experience, So I'm not much of a drinker.
43:12
Speaker 2: But I'm gona tell you I'm gonna be drinking because
43:13
Speaker 2: I'm going to be nervous. I'm already nervous about this game.
43:16
Speaker 2: So yeah, if you want to come watch me sweat
43:18
Speaker 2: an Eagles game, it doesn't get much better than this,
43:20
Speaker 2: Like this is this is a tough as it gets
43:23
Speaker 2: is an Eagles fan this week?
43:24
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm so excited. We get to watch
43:26
Speaker 1: this with people in like a fun environment hopefully all right,
43:31
Speaker 1: Cleveland at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams right now
43:37
Speaker 1: are four point favorites, No down to three and a half.
43:41
Speaker 1: I'm going to say this is my executive decision right
43:43
Speaker 1: now on Cleveland.
43:45
Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible are next to.
43:52
Speaker 2: Executive decision. Wow, Wow, break it down, baby, why Cleveland?
43:59
Speaker 2: Look number one, Garret's banged up, you know that, right?
44:01
Speaker 1: I know he's got hit U in his arm. I
44:03
Speaker 1: feel like.
44:04
Speaker 2: You couldn't even lift his arm.
44:06
Speaker 1: The it'll play. Don't worry about its miles scare. We've
44:09
Speaker 1: got a couple things working in our favor Rams way,
44:11
Speaker 1: and look, the numbers already moved. The wise guys have
44:13
Speaker 1: taken the four So if you want to get it.
44:15
Speaker 1: Get the three and a half. A. We've got the
44:17
Speaker 1: stats about blowouts, right, teams losing by seventeen playing against
44:22
Speaker 1: a team that won by more than seventeen sixty percent
44:25
Speaker 1: against the spread. That includes you got blown.
44:27
Speaker 2: Out last week? What's that Cleveland got blown out?
44:30
Speaker 1: What do they end up losing like twenty nine to
44:32
Speaker 1: twelve or something like that?
44:33
Speaker 2: Wow? Fuck, guess you're right.
44:35
Speaker 1: So and so that includes two games that we like,
44:39
Speaker 1: Washington and now Cleveland. Look, this is a defensive playmakers
44:42
Speaker 1: beyond Miles Garrett. I've been a fan of this defense
44:45
Speaker 1: all year. Uh, it's good against the run, it's good
44:48
Speaker 1: against the pass, it's good as a pass rushing team.
44:51
Speaker 1: The Rams offensive line has struggled consistently against teams like this.
44:56
Speaker 1: To me, this is a spot I don't think we
44:58
Speaker 1: can be over sort of inflating the value of the
45:02
Speaker 1: Rams from their win against a really bad team like
45:05
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. And this is when lines get bet up
45:08
Speaker 1: too much. And I think that's what happened with this game.
45:10
Speaker 1: And now we're starting to see some buyback on the Rams.
45:13
Speaker 1: At four. I think, like, I know, you still got
45:15
Speaker 1: some work to do. I think you're going to dig
45:17
Speaker 1: into this and think, oh, yeah, Cleveland's right side here.
45:20
Speaker 2: Yeah. My only fear is they're clearly a different team
45:23
Speaker 2: defensively on the road than they are at home. And
45:26
Speaker 2: you're giving me a stafford. It looks relatively healthy. And
45:32
Speaker 2: if you know, Cooper cups in the game with Puka
45:34
Speaker 2: and they got Williams in the backfield, that's a pretty
45:37
Speaker 2: potent offense. And if this does turn into a shootout,
45:40
Speaker 2: which sounds crazy, but I mean, I can just hit
45:43
Speaker 2: you real quick with Cleveland on the road here, all right,
45:47
Speaker 2: So let's start early. Pittsburgh, you know whatever. That was
45:51
Speaker 2: September eighteenth. They lost. They had twenty two points, but
45:55
Speaker 2: they gave up twenty six to Pittsburgh. Okay, not a
45:58
Speaker 2: big deal, early the season whatever them. Their next road
46:01
Speaker 2: game is a couple weeks later is against the Colts.
46:04
Speaker 2: They won thirty nine to thirty eight on the road,
46:07
Speaker 2: So they gave up thirty eight points to the Colts. Okay,
46:10
Speaker 2: fluky game. Those things happen the next week down the
46:13
Speaker 2: road again in Seattle. We all remember this game. They
46:15
Speaker 2: lost twenty four to twenty. That crazy giving up twenty points.
46:19
Speaker 2: Then then the following week they go to Baltimore and
46:21
Speaker 2: they gave up thirty one to that Ravens offense. So
46:25
Speaker 2: and then we have them here in Denver where they
46:26
Speaker 2: gave up twenty nine. Clearly, it's different them on the
46:30
Speaker 2: road than compared to at home, and these are splits
46:32
Speaker 2: I'm looking for that, like as we get into the
46:34
Speaker 2: season later in the season, these are things I'm looking
46:36
Speaker 2: for because that's real data, Like that's who these guys
46:39
Speaker 2: are this season, where incredibly dominant, destroyed teams at home,
46:44
Speaker 2: not as good on the road. It's clearly something here.
46:47
Speaker 2: So to me, that would be my only pause. But
46:50
Speaker 2: I'm with Chad in the sense that, like I mean,
46:53
Speaker 2: this is a little inflated because we don't really know
46:57
Speaker 2: what the health is of Garrett and we don't know exactly.
47:00
Speaker 2: I think it will be the rookie, the kid at
47:02
Speaker 2: quarterback again, but it could be to PJ. Walker, like
47:05
Speaker 2: they haven't really said yet who's going to be the
47:07
Speaker 2: starter or so I'll support you, chat on with you
47:10
Speaker 2: on it. It's just a little scarier where this team
47:13
Speaker 2: is just a different team on the road defensively. That's
47:16
Speaker 2: my only pause here.
47:18
Speaker 1: Well, we'll get more data by Sunday. We'll have a
47:21
Speaker 1: decision one way or the other. Simon, can you name
47:25
Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
47:28
Speaker 2: Game Time?
47:29
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
47:31
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48:00
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48:19
Speaker 1: The under has now cashed in fifteen straight Sunday Night
48:24
Speaker 1: Monday Night football games, dating back to last year. Regular
48:27
Speaker 1: season Sunday Night Monday Night Football unders thirty two and
48:32
Speaker 1: three in their last thirty five games. Kansas City at
48:35
Speaker 1: green Bay, green Bay six and a half point underdog.
48:38
Speaker 1: You mentioned this immediately on Sunday. You liked when green
48:43
Speaker 1: Bay was at seven, it moved to six and a half. Wise,
48:46
Speaker 1: guys are on the Packers.
48:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, nothing's changed for me. Do it again, mahmes, Let's
48:55
Speaker 2: see you do it again. Do back to back weeks
48:57
Speaker 2: of thirty points. And I'm happy to pay to lose
48:59
Speaker 2: this bat. But uh, green Bay here, not that they've
49:04
Speaker 2: figured it out with Jordan Love, but it feels like
49:06
Speaker 2: he's much more comfortable in this offense. He's last couple
49:09
Speaker 2: of weeks. I mean, he played really well against Chargers,
49:11
Speaker 2: played really good well against Detroit. Now he's going to
49:14
Speaker 2: face a real defense. So great test for him here
49:18
Speaker 2: at home. But just too big of a number. That's like,
49:21
Speaker 2: that's my biggest issue here. Where it's like this three
49:23
Speaker 2: and a half. I could probably be talked into the
49:26
Speaker 2: Chiefs here, but at six and a half, seven, what
49:30
Speaker 2: do you? What are we doing here? Gotta gotta take
49:32
Speaker 2: green Bay at that number, way way too big, especially
49:36
Speaker 2: for how well green Bay's played these last couple of weeks.
49:39
Speaker 2: So my fear here was this was gonna be one
49:41
Speaker 2: of the more public dogs of the week. I'm looking
49:44
Speaker 2: the action app right now. The bets and the money
49:46
Speaker 2: are on the Chiefs, So right now we're looking pretty
49:49
Speaker 2: good people. But if this flips, this becomes a public dog,
49:52
Speaker 2: I could I could probably be talking getting out of it,
49:54
Speaker 2: because that's what happened last week with the Raiders. The
49:56
Speaker 2: Raiders end up becoming a public dog. That's that's death
49:59
Speaker 2: for you. So this one here, it's too big of
50:03
Speaker 2: a number. We will spend more time on Thursday. But yeah,
50:07
Speaker 2: like I have guys texting all the time. You listen
50:10
Speaker 2: to our show, these other professionals, and you know, they're
50:14
Speaker 2: of course giving me shit about a couple of picks.
50:16
Speaker 2: But the multiple guys have said, when are you talking
50:19
Speaker 2: about Green Bay? We talked about it. People, don't worry.
50:21
Speaker 2: We're gonna get to it. It's a Sunday night game.
50:24
Speaker 2: We like green Bay. We gave it out on Sunday night.
50:27
Speaker 2: Nothing changed here. It's still six and a half. That's
50:29
Speaker 2: such a key number. I got no problem taking this,
50:33
Speaker 2: putting this one in our contest, and don't be shocked
50:35
Speaker 2: this ends up being in one of our big balls
50:36
Speaker 2: bets on Thursday.
50:38
Speaker 1: Oh goodness, you mean it's not going to be Cincinnati
50:44
Speaker 1: at Jacksonville. Jacksonville is an eight and a half point
50:48
Speaker 1: favorite right now. The total in this game is thirty eight.
50:51
Speaker 1: And I'll say that for a very specific reason. Obviously
50:54
Speaker 1: we just mentioned all the unders in primetime games. Also
50:59
Speaker 1: to member that stat that Evan gave about unders thirty eight,
51:06
Speaker 1: some like thirty two to eleven and one against the spread.
51:10
Speaker 1: So the last five games. Ever, if you could put
51:13
Speaker 1: in the chat what the timeframe is for that I forgot.
51:15
Speaker 1: But look, this is not the game that Joe that
51:20
Speaker 1: that ESPN expected. They thought they were getting Joe Burrow
51:24
Speaker 1: and Trevor Lawrence. When Joe leed it out, when Joe.
51:28
Speaker 2: Burrow was that it's weird. They didn't flex it out.
51:30
Speaker 2: They could have flexed it out and they didn't.
51:32
Speaker 1: Can you flex I don't know if you can flex
51:33
Speaker 1: out a Monday night game?
51:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, the game of a new contract. I'm almost positive.
51:37
Speaker 2: I could be wrong with this, but I'm almost positive
51:41
Speaker 2: they gave you has been a new contract where they
51:43
Speaker 2: can start flexing like the Sunday night flex. They gave
51:46
Speaker 2: the Monday night the same deal where they could, they
51:48
Speaker 2: could flex out guys to give them a better product
51:51
Speaker 2: quote unquote, but they didn't use it here. They could
51:54
Speaker 2: have moved this game out. They kept it in, which
51:55
Speaker 2: is interesting they.
51:56
Speaker 1: Didn't do it Joe Burrow. Before the injury, the Cincinnati
51:59
Speaker 1: Bengals were one point favorites. Now they are eight and
52:02
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs. Is nine and a half points
52:06
Speaker 1: too much of a swing? Is Joe Burrow worth ten
52:09
Speaker 1: points to the spread versus Jake Browning? Are we getting
52:14
Speaker 1: an ugly loss Cincinnati team against a semi lucky win
52:20
Speaker 1: that looks less impressive forty eight hours later in the Jaguars.
52:25
Speaker 1: I'm asking all this to say, in addition to the
52:30
Speaker 1: trends that favor an underdog in these low total games,
52:36
Speaker 1: is there an edge for Cincy that we're missing?
52:40
Speaker 2: No, I mean, you're probably right, You're probably getting a
52:43
Speaker 2: lot more value right now in this line, like it's
52:46
Speaker 2: bumped up to three points. Probably, But yeah, I got
52:50
Speaker 2: no read on it. Like I just I got no
52:52
Speaker 2: feel for this kid on Cincy. And last week they
52:59
Speaker 2: were like thowing the lucky teams in football, Like they
53:01
Speaker 2: had this this tip pass that Chase took all the
53:04
Speaker 2: way down to like the five yard line to tip.
53:09
Speaker 1: The only reason they were in that game was because
53:11
Speaker 1: he caught two tip passes.
53:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was just it was wonky and they still lost.
53:18
Speaker 2: Like It's just that's the fear here where it's like
53:21
Speaker 2: the football guys are giving them the bounces that we
53:23
Speaker 2: already talked about. Pittsburgh had four hundred yards of offense,
53:25
Speaker 2: but they only put up sixteen points. Like it was
53:27
Speaker 2: all there for Sincy to pull the upset off last
53:29
Speaker 2: week and they couldn't do it. It's the same fear here
53:32
Speaker 2: where the Jaguars didn't play their best game, like they
53:35
Speaker 2: had a lot of things fortunately go their way. This
53:38
Speaker 2: is usually a spot where they kill these teams, like
53:41
Speaker 2: at home in a primetime game. But Chad just said,
53:45
Speaker 2: it's like this, this moves so much the I don't
53:47
Speaker 2: know if this is gonna be one of our five,
53:48
Speaker 2: but as a professional, I gotta do it. I guess
53:52
Speaker 2: I gotta take Cincy. But I hate this one. It's
53:53
Speaker 2: another game where it's like I'm happy just to take
53:55
Speaker 2: the under and not watch a second of this game.
53:57
Speaker 1: And yeah, we will definitely be on the under. Evan
53:59
Speaker 1: gave me the stat again from earlier totals thirty seven
54:03
Speaker 1: or less twenty two four and one to the under.
54:05
Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty thirty eight or less thirty two eleven
54:08
Speaker 1: and one to the under. So right now this numbers
54:10
Speaker 1: at thirty eight. Plus you got the overriding factor that
54:13
Speaker 1: it's a Monday night football game. From those prime time
54:16
Speaker 1: hunters have been cashing.
54:18
Speaker 2: So thirteen to one to the under primetime Monday game.
54:21
Speaker 1: If we can uh put the thirty eight in the contest,
54:24
Speaker 1: that'd be great. Maybe we can call that three six five,
54:26
Speaker 1: have them change the rules in the past in the
54:29
Speaker 1: last you know, six weeks of the season. Right now, Uh.
54:36
Speaker 2: Bay is down to six as we're doing the show live.
54:39
Speaker 1: People betting it.
54:40
Speaker 2: People made it, Simon says, God damn it.
54:43
Speaker 1: Number is moving. Well, if you've made it, Simon says, then,
54:47
Speaker 1: uh yeah, I guess that would have made more sense.
54:51
Speaker 1: Uh games we're talking about that will dig deeper on Tennessee, Washington, Denver.
54:58
Speaker 1: You should have made Tennessee assignment, says.
55:03
Speaker 2: Love them all, brother, it's I'm trying to pick a
55:05
Speaker 2: favorite child here. It's tough.
55:06
Speaker 1: Love them all. Love them all like your kids. It's
55:08
Speaker 1: not true people love their kids differently. Denver plus three
55:11
Speaker 1: and a half, Cleveland plus four, we're going to talk
55:15
Speaker 1: more about that one. Green Bay plus six. Now sincey
55:19
Speaker 1: eight and a half, this is the Jets plus two
55:20
Speaker 1: and a half, we're going to talk more about Detroit too.
55:24
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have to find a favorite somewhere,
55:27
Speaker 1: and it just might be it might be the Detroit
55:29
Speaker 1: Lions or the No I think I talked you out
55:32
Speaker 1: of the Steelers.
55:33
Speaker 2: Okay, I did.
55:35
Speaker 1: I think I did? All right, let's see. As a reminder,
55:39
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