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Transcript

Guess It's Just Football | Saturday Takes on ALCS, NHL & WNBA Finals · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your hand.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Not tonight. Not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Hold on. Let me pull you out. That fell apart
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: by its heart. But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: This will be the Saturday morning edition. October 17th. Thanks
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: for everybody who hung out for the college football show
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: last night. I'm on no sleep, as you know. Maybe I'm...
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: Not seeing things straight, but I think I'm not going
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: to have any additional plays in the other sports that
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: are going on today that I'm about to talk about
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: and give my opinions on anyway. I'll recap the football
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: plays that I have at the end of the show.
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: You can find what those are all over the place
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: on all the different social media that I have out there.
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: I'm going with shorter clips now on Twitter and on
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: Instagram and stuff. You can see it there, but the
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: full breakdown will always be in the larger show at
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: this point, you only get like a little brief preview
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: of what I'm talking about in the, in the clips
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: right now, rather than reiterating myself, you know, time and
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: time again, I always wanted to find a way to
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: like clip what I'm saying here and turn those into
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: those Instagram reels and stuff. So I'm trying to do
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: that now. So people can let me know like what
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: they think about that. Give me feedback, whatever. Let's get
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: into today, man. We're going to talk about hockey for
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: the most part here. There's a lot of hockey here.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: Let's bring it up. Turn that TV on. Let's go.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: Most of the hockey teams are in action today. I
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: think there are a couple teams on back-to-backs after yesterday.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: I think Colorado and Anaheim, I think, are the only
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: teams that are not playing today, if I'm not mistaken.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: They both played yesterday, but I think everybody else is playing,
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: including Pittsburgh and Boston, I believe.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: Let's just get into it, man. There's afternoon hockey with
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: New Jersey at Washington, 1 p.m. Eastern, NHL Network. Washington,
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: a slight favorite in this one. I think Washington is
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: the better team here, but I was kind of surprised
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: that they weren't favored by more than they are, actually.
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: Washington is coming off kind of a big win over Montreal,
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: so I don't really want to play Washington after that.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, everybody kind of knows Montreal went to the
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: conference finals last year or whatever, and Montreal, or excuse me,
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: Washington actually played The other Eastern Conference final team before that, Carolina.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: So they're coming off that. They did have two days
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: off after the win over Montreal. But sometimes when you
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: have a good win like that, having extra time off
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: won't actually help you. And you'll just be thinking about
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: that win. As far as New Jersey is concerned, New
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: Jersey's coming off just destroying the Rangers. So I don't
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: really want any part of New Jersey either here. As
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: I think they consider the Rangers to be a bigger
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: brother to them in the New York area, and they
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: just beat New York 7-1, man. I mean, this Ranger team,
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: I expect them to kind of fall back a little
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: bit after a hot start, especially with Shisterkin out for
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: the year. New Jersey really got to them in the
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: first game that really wasn't good for Garand, the Rangers'
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: second-string goalie there, who's now their first string. So I
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: don't really want either, I don't really want a part
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: of either team here, man. Devils also do have Colorado next,
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: but I don't think they're going to overlook Washington. I
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: think it's just a matter of Both teams might be
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: a little bit unfocused after the game they just played.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: It's still, I think kind of a big game for
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: both teams. The money seems to be indicating towards the
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: devils here. Washington has 70% of the tickets and only
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: 58% of the money. So they're a public side with
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: less of the money on them. Washington, like I said,
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: about a minus one 20 favorite. It looks like that
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: line has dropped a little bit. So the market read
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: says New Jersey. I don't really have a strong reason
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: to disagree with that. Um, So I guess I'll probably
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: agree with that. I think Washington beating Montreal probably just
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: is a little bit bigger than beating a Ranger team
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: without their stud goalie, you know what I mean? Even
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: though that was really still, I think, a very satisfying
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: win for New Jersey. So those are my thoughts there.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Carolina at Winnipeg. Carolina's a big road favorite in this one. Winnipeg,
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: my first instinct was to be like, well, Winnipeg's not
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: really as good as their record makes them look. They're 4-1-2.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: They're Losses mostly coming in overtime, including their last game
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: where we won on the show with Chicago. I thought
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: they caught Winnipeg in a good spot. Winnipeg coming off
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: a big win over Minnesota. And they had a big
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: game against Carolina on deck, which of course is the
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: game today. They should get up for this game against
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: Carolina coming off a loss to Chicago. Probably were looking
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: ahead to this game, you know what I mean? And
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: caught in a sandwich, like I said. They're not going
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: to overlook Carolina, the returning champs here. Carolina off to
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: another hot start here. Carolina coming off a nice win over,
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: who was it again? Washington, yeah, that's right. And now
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: they're starting a road trip. Usually starting a road trip
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: is a focus spot, though. This game is also in
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: the afternoon, by the way, 3.30 p.m.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: Starting a road trip, usually you do focus, but having
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: extra days off here for Carolina might actually hurt them
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: a little bit because when you're on a big win
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: streak like this, Six games in a row, six wins
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: in a row, you do not really want to have
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: an extra break here. You want to just continue your momentum,
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? So I think Winnipeg is
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: actually the better side to look at in this one.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: I don't think I really want to do it, but
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: they look like they should kind of be in bounce-back
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: mode after they lost in that sandwich spot at Chicago.
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: Carolina's coming off the bigger win. We have 87% of
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: the tickets on Carolina, 76% of the cash on there.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: I should say Carolina's coming off the bigger game, but yes,
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: it was a win. Winnipeg's was not. But yeah, Carolina's
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: got more of the public action on them and less
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: of the cash. They're in the minus 170s now, it
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: looks like, for the most part on the money line here.
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: So you'd be able to get Winnipeg at a pretty
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: good underdog price. I would say make a plus one
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: puck line on them or something like that to get
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: that price down a little bit. So take partially on
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: the plus one and a half, which you'll have to
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: pay a little bit more for. The other part of it,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: right on the money line, you know what I mean?
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: And balance that out. Or some books will just let
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: you bet. I think the plus one puck line, but
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: making your own, if you have a bunch of books available,
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: might be better because you can split that bet across
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: multiple books. Like make one of the two bets at
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: one place and the other of the two bets at
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: another place, you know? So yeah, I'll lean Winnipeg in
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: that one. Going over that more, that one actually feels
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: better to me than when I first looked at that game.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: I didn't really have that much of a thought on
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: that game at first. I think Winnipeg's a little bit
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: stronger than I initially thought, but I still don't want
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: to make it a play. Vancouver at Tampa Bay. Tampa
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: Bay just barely got by the Kraken in their last game.
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: So Tampa Bay might be in a little bit more
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: of a refocused spot here. It looks like maybe they
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: overlooked Seattle. Seattle's not that good of a team, although
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: they do have a good record right now. Tampa Bay
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: barely got by that game. They were a pretty substantial favorite,
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I think, right? Yeah, Tampa Bay was a huge favorite
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: in that game. Looking at the stats, Tampa Bay... won
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: the statistics in the game except for the face-offs so
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: looks like maybe they should have won the game a
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: little bit more easily than they did could be maybe
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: a refocus spot for them but I would be worried
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: they might not totally pay attention to Vancouver because Vancouver
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: sucks and Tampa Bay does have Vegas and Colorado on
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: deck those are big games even though they're in the
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: other conference those are good teams so It is still
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: possible they have a look-ahead spot here, even though it
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: looks like they should refocus after their last game. Vancouver,
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a good performance against the Panthers, where
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: they almost were able to beat Florida. They went into
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: Florida and took them into overtime. So I think Vancouver
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: could be in a little bit of a hangover spot
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: after that. So you've got Tampa Bay coming off a
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: game where they almost lost as a big favorite up
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: against Vancouver, who is coming off a game where they–
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: almost won as a big underdog, so in a situation
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: like that, I usually do like to lean towards the favorite,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: but you can't play a price like this on Tampa Bay.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: They're almost minus 400 on the money line. I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: Vancouver's the worst team in the league, but this is ridiculous,
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: or maybe Calgary is, but this is ridiculous. I don't
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: think I've ever... even ever seen a hockey money line
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: this heavy before. And I don't even think Tampa Bay
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: is the best team. I think they're one of the
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: top teams, but this is crazy. Minus 390 something, basically.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: It's an unplayable price here, man. Tampa Bay has 95%
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: of the tickets on them and only 61% of the cash.
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: So the money is indicating against them. And obviously a
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: lot of that has to do with the price just
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: being outrageous here. It's a reasonably high total at six
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: and a half. I think one way to play this
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: would be maybe to just take Tampa over their team total.
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: If you think they're going to win, the money is
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: coming in towards the over here. And if you think
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Tampa is going to win, they should put up some scoring.
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: You would think they're a good offense too in Vancouver,
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: not exactly great on the defensive end. So that might
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: be the way to look at that is to take
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: Tampa's team total over. You probably need them to get
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: to four goals in that game though, at least, but
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: they could definitely do it. I mean, they did it
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: in their last game. So those are my thoughts there.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: Both teams coming off overtime games. Interesting. Okay. Then we
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: have the other end of that, Seattle and Florida, the
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: teams that I just talked about. Basically, this just kind
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: of flips the script here, where you have Seattle coming
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: off a good performance as a big underdog. They almost
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: beat Tampa Bay. Florida coming off a performance where they
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: almost lost at home to Vancouver. so again, I'm going
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: to say again, normally I'm going to look to that
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: team that was the favorite and almost lost, which is Florida,
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: because I feel like they refocused after something like that,
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: where Seattle might have used all their energy trying to
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: beat Tampa Bay, and now they just don't have a
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: whole lot left in the tank, so I'd be looking
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: towards Florida in this one, Florida, yeah, so I mean,
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: I already talked about what these teams just did, because
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: those are the last two games I just talked about,
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: so not a whole lot else to look at as
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: far as the schedule, unless you think maybe Seattle is
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: going to look past Florida, but I kind of don't
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: think that's the case because everybody still pretty much knows
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: Florida is still a good team, even though they didn't
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: make the playoffs last year. Uh, the money in this
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: one is also coming in on Seattle though, Florida public
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: 79% of the tickets on them. They're at least not
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: an outrageous price here. They're not in an outrageous price range,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: Florida minus one 80 something. So, um, either Florida getting
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: some disrespect in the market or Seattle's just getting way
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: more respect than Vancouver. I think that probably is part
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: of it. Even though I still don't think Seattle's that good.
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: The record is pretty good to start the season. It's 50, 50,
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: as far as the cash is concerned in this game.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: So the money is indicating towards Seattle. I would not
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: do that. I would be looking more towards Florida here.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: The money in this one's more indicating towards the under
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: than in the other game though. I think Tampa is
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: just more of an over style team than Florida is. Um,
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: By which I mean Florida is better defensively than Tampa is.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: At least I think that's still going to wind up
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: being the case this year. This totals around six or
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: six and a half here as well. But again, I mean,
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: it still could be a game where maybe you want
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: to look towards Florida to go over the team total
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: here again, man. If you think that the favorite is
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: the right side. I think the Tampa one is probably
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: a little bit more preferable, though. to go with the
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: team total over. And in this one, if you really
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: think it's going to be a low-scoring game, you maybe
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: could look at Seattle to go under their team total,
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: but that seems a little bit dangerous to me. There
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: could just be some garbage scoring. If Florida gets up
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: by a decent amount, they take their foot off the
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: gas a little bit. So that's kind of the issue there.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: And then I guess you have to kind of ask
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: yourself if there's any sort of look-ahead spot or anything
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: like that here. I think I talked about that with
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. Does Florida have any? I guess is the
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: other question. I mean, they play Ottawa next. They probably
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: consider that to be a game that has more meaning
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: than playing Seattle. So if you think that might be
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: a look ahead, I guess it's possible, but I don't know.
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: I think in those two games, I think the favorite
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: makes more sense than the underdog, even though the money
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: doesn't agree. But again, some of that is just the
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: price not being really great on the favorites there. The
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: Islanders are playing at Toronto. as we are in the
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: evening slate of games now, uh, Vancouver, Tampa Bay is
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: the last afternoon game at 4 PM Eastern, uh, Florida, uh,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: Seattle at 6 PM Eastern. And now all the rest
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: of these games later than that, we have a bunch
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: of 7 PM games here, Toronto coming off a close
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: game against the Sabres. I think Toronto was in a
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: return home spot. If I'm, if I'm remembering correctly, um,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: let me see if this would load faster, that would
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: be great. Um, Yeah, Toronto, they lost in overtime to Buffalo.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: That was in a return home spot. So they still
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: played pretty tough against a decent Buffalo team. Lost in overtime.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Normally I would talk about, you know, when a team
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: returns home from a road trip like Toronto did, they
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: can get caught in a distraction spot and have a
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: bad game. And if they do, a lot of times
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: they bounce back in the next game. But I'm not
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: so sure I would say that was a bad performance.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: They played Buffalo tough and almost won the game. So
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: there is the possibility that will actually hang them over
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: a little bit into this game. As far as the
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: Islanders are concerned, if this would load, again, this is like,
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know why this is loading so slow. The
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: Islanders are coming off a pretty decent performance as well.
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: They lost to a decent Ottawa team by one goal
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: here in a shootout. So both teams went to overtime
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: in their last game. Islanders in Ottawa went to a shootout.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: So both teams are kind of in negative spots here,
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: coming off of good performances, I would say. So this
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: game is definitely a stay away for me. The money
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: is all coming in on the Islanders, though, like the
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: actual money. The public is on Toronto. 79% of the
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: tickets there. 69% of the money on the Islanders, though.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: Toronto about a minus 130, something favored here. So the
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: actual money is saying Islanders here. I can see the
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: argument against both teams, like I said. So usually when
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: that's the case, I tend to think that the over
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: is more of the right way to look, and maybe
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: it is. It's six and a half. like when you
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: have two teams that are kind of in negative spots,
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: like fatigue spots, in this case, the defense can be
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: a little bit tired. I think the, uh, it takes
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: more effort to play defense and offense. Uh, so I think, uh,
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: even though that might sound a little bit weird. So
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: I think the fatigue aspect of it tends to affect
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: the defense more. So maybe an over makes some sense here.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: Money is saying the Islanders. So do what you want
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: with that. I don't really just, I don't really disagree
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: with it. I just don't have a strong agreement with
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: it either. Um, Normally I'd be saying, well, Toronto might
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: be in a bounce back spot after losing the return
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: home spot, but because that was a tough game and
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: they didn't actually play bad, I kind of back off
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: of that type of narrative in a game like that.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: All right, Buffalo, speaking of them, they're at Montreal. Buffalo's
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: still looking for revenge, man. Montreal knocked them out of
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: the playoffs last year. Buffalo just played in Montreal, which
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: is where they are today, too. Two games ago, and
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: Buffalo lost again. So maybe Montreal has Buffalo's number. Although
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: I think that was a pretty extended playoff series, though.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: It wasn't like a sweep or anything. But Buffalo still
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: probably wants that revenge, man, because you remember who ended
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: your season, and you put some weight into beating that
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: team today. And they were not able to do it
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: two games ago. They went into Montreal, and they only
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: lost in a shootout. So I thought Buffalo might be
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: in a little bit of a tricky spot after that.
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: But they were catching Toronto in a return home spot.
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: So both teams were in bad spots. And I said
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: over in that game was my opinion. And it definitely
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: went over. Although it did go to overtime. But even
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: without overtime, it went over. Overtime. Even without overtime, it
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: went over. It was a 5-4 game there. Now Buffalo
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: going back to Montreal again. They've had a jammed schedule here, though, man.
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: They're playing a fourth game in the last six days,
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: not all in different cities, really, but having to go
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: back to Montreal again. So they've gone Montreal-Toronto, now back
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: to Montreal here. So with travel between all these cities here,
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: not exactly the greatest spot for Buffalo travel-wise, but I
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: think at the very least they're going to try to
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: get up for this game because they want to get
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: some sort of revenge against the team that eliminated them.
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: Like I said, It's one of the only types of
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: revenge that really matters because a lot of times revenge
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: gets overstated. As far as Montreal is concerned, they just
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: lost in Washington a couple days ago. Montreal has more
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: rest here because they haven't played since Wednesday, so they
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: do definitely have a rest edge here. They just had
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: a tough game losing in Washington, though. That's a somewhat
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: big game, although maybe... I don't know if the teams
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: realize that Washington's good yet. I don't know. I mean,
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: I think they are based on how they get... priced
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: in the market uh so yeah i think it was
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: still kind of a big game for montreal the money
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: is coming in towards buffalo here 67 tickets around montreal
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: 50 50 on the cash montreal is like a minus
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: 140 or so favorite here so the money is saying
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: to take buffalo at that decent underdog price i mostly
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: agree like i said i think they have a little
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: bit more motivation here you could argue it's a little
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: bit of a zigzag spot after they lost that last
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: game in montreal i I would say one thing you
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: want to do is look at that game and see
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: was anything misleading about that final score here. I looked earlier,
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: and I just don't remember if I saw much. Well,
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: Montreal actually kind of dominated the game shots-wise. They had
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: way more shots than Buffalo, so they had way more
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: scoring opportunities. The physicality metrics were all pretty close, or
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: at least hits and face-offs, those were close. But it
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: wasn't really a misleading result. If anything, Montreal should have
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: probably won that game more easily, the way they shot
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: in that game. but still, I think Buffalo, I probably
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: slightly still lean to Buffalo here, but I really don't
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: like the rest situation for them. Plus the travel. So yeah,
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: that's definitely going to be a stay away as well,
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: even though they might really want to get this revenge
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: win finally, you know, and now it's sort of one
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: of those, you know, quick revenge angles where maybe Montreal
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: takes them a little bit more lightly after beating them again.
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Um, But still, they still
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: might show up for it. I guess the other question
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: you got to answer is, does Montreal have a look
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: ahead or anything here? If this would load. Yeah, I
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: don't know what's going on with the internet, man. Why
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: everything's going so slow here today. Seemed like my show
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: last night had some blips when I watched the clips here. Yeah,
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: why is this not loading? Things are not going well
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: here right now, man.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Ugh.
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: Ugh.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: Well, I'd apologize for this, but it's also not my fault, so... Like,
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: what do you want me to do? I need to
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: bring this shit up to... you know, do the show.
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: I can't bring anything up. Thanks a lot, Internet. Thank
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: you very much. Yeah, I don't know what to do, man.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: I don't even know if I can go to the
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: next game either. San Jose and Detroit? Oh, San Jose,
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: that page is loading. Sort of. Yeah, I don't know
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: what to tell you, man, unless maybe it's ESPN that's
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: all messed up right now. I don't know if I
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: want to really refresh this page because I'll lose the
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: page for me there. Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: going to try to start talking about San Jose and
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Detroit here. It's interesting to me that Detroit has the,
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: they're the Moneyline favorite here. Detroit is, because you're going
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: to look at the team's records and think, well, why
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: is Detroit favored here, right? Because why is the team
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: with the lesser record favorites? That would have me thinking
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: that maybe the public is going to be on San Jose,
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: and they kind of are, 62% of the tickets on them.
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: But it looks like the real money is also on
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: San Jose here at 92% of the cash. So the
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: market read is kind of saying to lean towards San
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: Jose here. Detroit has dropped from about minus 140 down
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: into the minus 130s range here. Is there a reason
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: for it? I don't know. Dude, if these pages don't load,
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to tell you. I don't want
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: to abandon the show, but this is getting ridiculous to me.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: What are we doing here? Why is nothing loading? Can
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: I load Google or something?
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Google's loading. It looks like it's a problem with ESPN, actually.
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: This is crazy, dude. So I don't know if I
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: can bring up a different site here. Hold on a minute.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: I'm going to bring up another window real quick. Let
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: me just see. This is just so ridiculous, dude. Whoops.
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: I did not want to bring up Chrome here. I
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: apologize for this, man, even though it's not really my fault.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: Like I said, ESPN's website, I don't know. They seem
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: to be having some issues here. Hold on. Or it
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: could be my window. I mean, I could close this
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: entire window and try to bring up a new window here.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to do it, but I might
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: have to. Things are just getting ridiculous here. No, yeah,
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: it looks like there's something going on with ESPN, dude.
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: So maybe I can bring up these schedules in a
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: different place here. Hold on. Yeah, I mean, I have NHL.com.
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: This isn't going to be as good of a look,
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: but I guess we could start using this just to
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: go through this, man, because I don't want to delay
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: the show, really, just because ESPN is a fucking piece
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: of shit. So I don't know what else to tell you.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: This is going to get clipped. This is going to
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: wind up being a clip. This is unbelievable, dude. Unbelievable. Anyway,
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: here's the NHL schedule. I'm going to do it this
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: way now. Oh, yes, I understand all your cookies that
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: you want to throw at me. um making me hungry
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: man uh all right anyway oh and this doesn't let
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: me uh click on each team so that's great so
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: i can't even really do it this way either can
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: i yes this is gonna be a bust too dude
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: i need to talk about the scheduling dynamics i don't
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: know what to tell you about the rest of these
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: games here i can go through all the market reads
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: here if you want but uh yeah i don't know
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: what else to tell you um ESPN is just not
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: loading right now, so let's just go through the rest
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: of the market reads, I guess. The next game is
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: Ottawa and Philadelphia. This game, Ottawa, public side, 73% of
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: tickets on them, 88% of the cash, though, so the
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: money sort of indicating their way, but Ottawa at about
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: minus 150-something is a favorite here. We know Philadelphia's still
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: a winless team here, so nobody's going to want Philly,
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: but at some point they're going to win a game, man.
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: And I don't remember exactly what the scheduling dynamics are
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: like in this game, but yeah, I mean, I'm not
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: going to like pay that much of a road price
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: on a team just because Philadelphia is winless. Like I'm,
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that Philly is the worst team in
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: the league or anything like that. Uh, if things start loading,
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: I'll start going back and talking about the rest of
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: these games, man, but it's not happening right now. So
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: I apologize. Um, New York Rangers at Columbus. We know
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: the Rangers just got annihilated in their last game by
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: the Devils, so they might be in a little bit
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: of a bounce back after that, but I believe Columbus
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: didn't play well in their last game either, if I'm
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: not mistaken. So I looked at this game, and it
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: looked like both teams are going to be in focused
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: spots here, and Columbus has the lesser record. Can we
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: actually load this page? No, we can't. Yeah, there's just
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: something going on with ESPN, man. Again, I apologize. You're
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: going to look at... The public's going to look at
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: this game and think, why is Columbus favorite here, right?
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: They're like a minus 130-something favorite here when the Rangers
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: have the better records. That had me kind of thinking
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: maybe Columbus would be the way to look in this
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: game if you think both teams are in bounce-back spots.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: But the money is definitely indicating on the Rangers. 52%
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: of the tickets on them, 82% of the cash on them.
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: But like I've been saying, I think the Rangers have
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: overperformed to start the season, and now they're without Shesterkin again. Yeah,
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that that's... really going to be the
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: right way to look here. To me, it looks kind
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: of too easy to take the better team as the
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: underdog with the Rangers. And with both teams in focused spots,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I think Columbus might be the way
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: I would lean in that one, but I don't have
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: that strong of an opinion on that one either. Dallas
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: is at Chicago. This was probably my strongest opinion on
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: the hockey board here. I like Chicago again, believe it
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: or not. I was strongly considering giving out Chicago for
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: a third game in a row. I think Dallas is
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: in a letdown spot, dude. Dallas is coming up those
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: back-to-back games against Colorado, and they won in Colorado in
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: their last game. I don't think they have a big
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: game up next, but I think just simply it's a
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: letdown spot for Dallas off a big win. Two big
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: games in a row, close games against Colorado. I think
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: they might be a little bit flat coming into this
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: game against Chicago. Chicago got us two wins in a
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: row here on the show against Winnipeg most recently, and
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: then I forget who they beat the game before that.
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Chicago's going to be a big underdog price
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: here as well. They got a little bit of momentum here,
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: playing a little bit better. Dallas is still a public
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: side here, even though you're having to lay a big
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: price with Dallas if you want Dallas. 85% of the
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: tickets on them and only 62% of the cash on them.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: They're about a minus 200 favorite here. But yeah, I
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: would lean to Chicago. You could probably get them on
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: the puck line here. Actually, you know what, just because
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: I'm interested, because I think every other website is at
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: least working. Let me see what the price is on
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: Chicago on the puck line here. I don't think I
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: want to add this play, but let me see, because
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: it's not a sandwich spot or anything. But yeah, I
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: think the best way to look on the hockey board
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: today is to take Chicago. I think I would make
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: it a split bet. You can get the plus one
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: and a half puck line at about minus 150 or so.
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: And then put the rest on the money line at
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: like plus 160 something, something like that. So that's what
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: I would do. I would make it into a plus
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: one puck line on the Chicago side and do it
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: that way. And Dallas, they do play a lot of
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: lower scoring games. I think Dallas kind of more of
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: a defensive oriented team, goaltending oriented team. So yeah, Chicago
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: might get you there with that as the big underdog.
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: That's the way I would look in that game. And
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: I think that's the best way to look on the
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: entire hockey board here today. Oh, this is actually loading again. Sweet,
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: so I can go back and finish what I was
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: talking about. I was first just going to see, does
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: Montreal have a look ahead here? I'm hoping to get
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: this show done, man, which I think I will. Montreal
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: only has San Jose next. I don't really think there's
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: a look ahead component to that. As far as Ottawa
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: and Philadelphia, or sorry, San Jose and Detroit. Sorry, I
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: did not look at the schedules for them here. San
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: Jose just beat the Predators in their last game. Not
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: really a huge deal there. So they might not be
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: unfocused coming into Detroit. At least Detroit has a lot
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: of history behind their name. Detroit just beat the Flyers,
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: also not a big deal there. So there's really not
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: a whole lot to look at in that game. So
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: like I said, I think I kind of lean Detroit
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: in that one just because I think it looks a
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: little bit weird that the team with the lesser record
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: is the favorite here. but again, as I already said,
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: it looks like the money is actually coming in on
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: San Jose in that one. Do what you want with that,
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: and then the money seems to be slightly tilted towards
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: Ottawa in the game against Philly that I started talking about,
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: but I might kind of lean against that here. Ottawa's
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: only coming off a game against the Islanders, though, so
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: that's not really that big of a deal. I guess
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: we do have to see, like, is there a look-ahead
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: component to any of this? Ottawa has Florida next, so
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: they might have a look-ahead to that. They might Overlook
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: this a single road trip game to Philly here. So yeah,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: I think I would leave Philly here I feel like
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: I've been leaning their way a lot and they still
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: haven't gotten the job done But at some point they're
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: going to and maybe it'll happen here, right? You know,
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: I mean Ottawa I think Ottawa will still have all
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: mark and net here because he does play most of
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: their games and they have rest and prior to playing
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: Florida here, and they're not on a back-to-back or anything,
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: but that still might be a look ahead to Florida,
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: so I would lean Philly in this game, even though
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: the market read looks kind of against it. You get
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: them as a pretty solid underdog price here. Philly lost
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: again in their last game to Detroit, as I was saying,
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: so that's what we got going on in that one.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: I guess for San Jose and Detroit, I guess I should.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: Make it clear if there are any look-ahead spots here
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: or anything for either team. I'm all messed up because
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: ESPN wasn't loading, man. San Jose's got Toronto next, so
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: not really that big of a deal, I wouldn't say.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Detroit is playing Seattle next. I don't really consider that
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: to be a big look-ahead either. So, yeah, I think
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: my thoughts stand on all those games. And as far
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: as Columbus, because I missed what they had done, yeah,
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: they got annihilated by the Panthers in their last game.
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: So Columbus uh is coming off an ugly loss and
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: so are the rangers as i already said columbus has
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: more days off though so i think that's another reason
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: to maybe lean towards columbus here is that they haven't
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: played since tuesday so they have a little bit more
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: time to fix things and they've lost a couple games
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: in a row so when you're losing having a break
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: i think is helpful So that's what I would say there.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: And for Dallas, they don't have a look ahead, unfortunately.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: It's only a letdown spot, in my opinion, for Dallas.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: So I do still like Chicago. Dallas is playing Boston next.
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to argue that's a look
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: ahead because of the Sagan thing, which is so old.
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: It's such old news at this point. I don't even
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: think it matters at all. Sagan, I think he's still
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: on Dallas. He used to be on Boston a long,
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: long time ago. I don't think it really matters. Um,
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: but Boston does have a good record and they surprised
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: me and won again yesterday. So, um, they're playing a
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: lot better than I thought they would at least. So
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: maybe Dallas will look ahead and overlook Chicago, but yeah,
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: I either way, I still think Chicago is the best
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: play on the hockey board today. Um, top lobster. What's up, man?
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: Thank you, sir. Thanks for hanging out. Got a lot
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: going on here with the layout. Yeah, you should see
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: what I was doing at the beginning of the show,
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: by the way, when I turned my television set off here.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: I should make it look like a TV, actually. I
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: don't know if that would fit, but I'd have to
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: get another overlay done. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Yes, sir.
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: New layout. You liking it? Hell yeah. But yeah, you'll
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: see what I do. I'll switch the TV off at
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: the end of the show, and you'll see. I had
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: that going on at the beginning of the show. I
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: think it's A little bit of a cool effect that
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: I'm doing here. Anyway, St. Louis at Nashville as we
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: get through the rest of the hockey here. Nashville just
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: lost to the Sharks in their last game as I
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: already talked about. They're staying at home. They haven't won
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: a game on the homestand yet, so usually when that's
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: the case, the home team will be a bit motivated
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: because you don't want to lose every game on your homestand, obviously.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: St.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: Louis is coming in off a pretty good performance against
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: the Wild in their last game, so this to me
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: looks like this game is probably Nashville or pass in
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: this one.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: St.
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: Louis, that was a big game. against minnesota the only
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: thing is it wasn't really as close as maybe it
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: seemed like st louis put in kind of a garbage
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: time goal right at the end they were actually losing
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: five to two pretty late in the game they got
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: a shorthanded goal somehow which is usually a fluke and
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: then in the final seconds of the game basically they
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: put in another goal but it was obviously way too
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: little too late minnesota did uh outplay them as far
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: as the shots and whatever but still you know you
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: can make the argument it was kind of a close
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: game at st louis played against a good a divisional
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: opponent in Minnesota. I believe Nashville is also in their division, though.
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: But still, I would lean Nashville here. I think they're
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: going to have more motivation, better spot for them staying
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: at home.
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: St.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: Louis coming up, a big game against the Wilds. I
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: think Nashville is the right side in this one. Although
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: the money, again, doesn't really seem to agree. 71% of
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: the tickets and 95% of the cash on St.
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: Louis.
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: Nashville is... It looks like it's basically a pick-em price here,
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: so that to me makes it actually seem a little
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: bit too easy maybe to take St. Louis as well,
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: just because I think Nashville just kind of has this
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: air around them that they're not that good of a team.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: Both teams are sitting at 500, though, if you exclude
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: the overtime losses, where Nashville has had a lot of
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: overtime games. Nationals on my good side now for once, though,
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: because they won a game for us on the show
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: earlier this year. So there you go. My Boston Bruins
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: staying in the L.A. area for another game. They're on
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: a back to back, though, and I was pretty shocked
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: that the Bruins won last night, to be honest. And
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: the Bruins went with their backup goalie in that game,
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: DPH row, and they still won that game. I'm surprised,
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: but if you dig into it, the Bruins didn't actually
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: play that well in this game necessarily. Anaheim out-hit them
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: by quite a bit, and usually the Bruins play a
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: pretty physical style, so that's not a good sign for
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: the Bruins that they got out-hit by the Ducks. Ducks
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: also out-shot them, but I think part of that reason
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: was because the Ducks were behind later in the game,
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: but maybe not, though, because the Bruins kind of pulled
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: away late in the game. Anaheim actually had a 2-0
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: lead in this game, and then the Bruins scored... multiple
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: times on the power play in fact three power plays
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: so good for the Bruins scoring on the power play
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: because that was one of their main issues last year
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: is their power play was total ass and they couldn't
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: score on the power play at least that's not happening
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: this year but it also means this is a little
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: bit of a misleading result when you know they all
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: their goals just happen to happen when they had the
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: man advantage you know what I mean and obviously you
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: could see that when the teams were uh, playing, you know,
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: the five on five game, Anaheim was winning the game.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: So that's not a great sign for the Bruins. Although
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: the Bruins dominated the face-offs in the game though. So
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: that was one thing that did legitimately go the Bruins
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: way here and the Bruins up.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Scored another goal late to extend the lead, but yeah. Um,
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: I'm going to be leaning towards LA here. I mean,
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: the Bruins are on a back-to-back. I know it's not
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: that much travel to go from Anaheim to LA, but
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: the Bruins have already had a surprisingly successful road trip
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: out here in California, winning both games out here so far.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: The Kings have not won a game yet. So that's
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: the other thing that we're looking at here. You've got
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: to look at this and be thinking, why are the
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: Kings favored here, right? Like the Bruins or whatever they
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: are right now, 6-2 or whatever. Anaheim has no wins
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: on the season. How could Anaheim possibly, or excuse me, L.A.,
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: excuse me. I keep thinking L.A. and Anaheim are the same. No, L.A.,
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: the Kings, they don't have a win yet on the season.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: Minus 130-something is the price on them, though. So you've
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: got to think that the public is, they're only going
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: to be on the Bruins here, and they are, 76%
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: of tickets on them. Only 56% of the cash. So, yeah,
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: the public is, again, thinking what I was about to say. Like,
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: how could the Kings possibly be a favorite here, right?
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: Against a Bruins team that has a really good record
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: so far. Kings don't even have a win yet. Why
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: would you play the Kings as a favorite? That's why
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: I think they're the right side here, though, man. And
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: they have a major rest advantage here. They haven't played
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: since Tuesday where they lost again to Edmonton. But look
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: at the Kings' schedule so far, man. The worst team
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: they've played so far is San Jose. That was an
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: overtime loss. Their other losses are at Colorado, at home
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: against Florida by one, overtime loss at Vegas, and then
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: losing to Edmonton. None of those teams are bad. They've
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: had one of the more difficult schedules so far in
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: the league, and the oddsmakers are telling you to not
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: really buy into what these records are saying right now.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: The oddsmakers are pretty much telling you that These teams
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: are around even, basically. Of course, with the rest edge,
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: the line is going to be a little bit more
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: skewed to LA than it would be otherwise, because the
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers know about the rest edge, obviously. So they will
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: skew the line a little bit towards LA for that reason.
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: But still, not many people want them. And the oddsmakers
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: know that, so they can't really skew the line too much,
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: knowing that the public is going to be taking the Bruins.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: They can't give the public, you know, like an even
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: bigger underdog price, really. But yeah. You know what I'm
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: saying here. I like LA in this game. That's the
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: way I'd play it. I think it's one of the
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: better plays on the board, actually. You know me. Give
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: me a winless team as a favorite, man. I think
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: the rest advantages is huge for LA in that game, too, though.
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: But it will be Swayman back in net for the Bruins, remember, though,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: because they used DiPietro yesterday. So Bruins will have the
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: better goalie back in net for that one. But yeah,
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: I like LA in that one. That one almost made
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: the cut for me as well. Chicago and LA, I
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: think of the two best NHL place today. Chicago on
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: like a puck line at home and then LA just
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: on the money line. All right, Edmonton at Utah. These
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: two teams just played and Utah went into Edmonton and
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: beat them 4-2. Now it's one of those road reversal,
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: revenge type of angles if you want to call it that,
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: the zigzag, whatever, where you want to look into that
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: first matchup and see was there anything misleading about it.
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: But the other thing is that You have to say,
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: will Utah actually overlook the Oilers now? Because they might
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: be thinking, oh, if we can go into Edmonton and
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: beat them there, we can beat them at home too,
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? So maybe Utah will have
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a letdown component to that, and
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: the Oilers will have some things to fix after losing
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: that previous game, whereas Utah has nothing to fix because
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: they played well and they won, right? I'd be leaning
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: towards Edmonton in the zigzag scenario here. And looking at
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: the stats in this game, Edmonton won the face-off battle.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: They were the more physical team. They won the hits
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: and the shots were even. So this game was a
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: little bit misleading as far as the fact that Utah
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: won 4-2. Utah had two power play goals to open
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: the game, and then they had an empty netter at
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: the end. So in the actual 5-on-5 game, the Oilers
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: actually outscored them in the game, actual 5-on-5 play. So
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: The Oilers were debatably actually the better team in that game.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: I think both teams are still going to get up
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: for this. I mean, Utah's not going to overlook Edmonton
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: really anytime they play them, but I think Edmonton has
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: the adjustments to make here. Coming off that loss to Utah,
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: flip the script, road reversal, zigzag, road reversal, revenge, whatever
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: you want to call it. Edmonton will be the team
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: that actually has things to fix, whereas Utah doesn't. I'd
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: lean Edmonton in this one. Money seems to agree, and
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: you're getting them as an underdog here. So, oddsmakers, they
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: like Utah. They're telling you this Utah team is pretty
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: legit at about minus 130, something minus 140 as a
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: favorite price here. It's not that often you're going to
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: get Edmonton as a big underdog like this because the
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers do consider Edmonton to be one of the better
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: teams in the league, too. Yeah, getting Edmonton as an
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: underdog like this in a spot like this, I think
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: that's the right approach. 68% of the tickets... 91% of
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: the cash on Edmonton, so the actual money looks like
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: it is agreeing with the Edmonton side there. You can
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: get them at plus money. I will point out, though,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: that Utah is a better defensive team than Edmonton, though,
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: so a lot of times they do look more towards
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: the defense. team but in that specific scenario i do
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: not uh even though yeah i i keep bashing edmonton's
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: defense and i will continue to do so because they're
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: not good uh but their offense is really good so
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: It balances out, kind of. Not enough for them to
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: win a Stanley Cup, though. I don't think you can
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: win it with the lack of deep... The amount of...
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: What's the word I'm looking for? With the severe lack
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: of defense that they have. And their goaltending isn't that
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: good either. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: Last game on the hockey schedule is Pittsburgh at Vegas.
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: As I mentioned, Pittsburgh is on a back-to-back. They played
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: Colorado yesterday. Pittsburgh got out to a 2-0 lead, and
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: then they completely fell apart. Lost 5-2. Was there anything
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: misleading about this? Well, I mean, the game was already
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: out of reach later in the game. It wasn't an
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: empty net goal either. The shots were pretty close in
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: the game, and so were the hits. Colorado won the
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: face-off battle here. So, yeah, I mean, I would say
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: it was actually a little bit misleading. I mean, statistically,
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: the game was a little bit closer than it looked.
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: But will Pittsburgh be able to handle a back-to-back going
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: from Colorado to Vegas and having to get up for
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: these two huge games against two teams that are a
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: lot better than they are. I don't know, man. Pittsburgh
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: might wind up kind of fatigued by the end of this,
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: especially on the back-to-back. We will see. Pittsburgh will switch
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: goalies in this one, I'm assuming, but I don't like
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: either of their goalies, so I don't really think that
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: downgrades them that much. They have us. Silovs and Murashov.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: They've been alternating between the two of them anyway, though.
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: It'll be Murashov in this game. I don't think that
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: really matters that much, although you might point out, well,
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's 0-3 with Murashov in net. That is true, although
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: one of them was a shootout loss and another one
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: of them was a one-goal loss, so he hasn't really
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: been that bad. Vegas is coming up an easy win
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: over the Flames, but they have rest and they're staying
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: at home. Then the question would be, will they have
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: a look ahead? Maybe, because they play Tampa Bay next,
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: and Tampa is a good team, so maybe Vegas does
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: look ahead to that and overlooks Pittsburgh a little bit.
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: I don't want to play Pittsburgh on the back-to-back, though,
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: but Vegas is a heavily public side. 93% of the tickets,
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: 95% of the cash on them at about minus 200-something.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: The line has dropped on them from an opener of
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: minus 233 down into the minus 215 range, basically. So
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: some money is indicating towards Pittsburgh here. I don't want
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: to do it on the back-to-back with two. After they
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: played a strong opponent yesterday, now they have to do
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: it again. No thanks from me on Pittsburgh. I don't
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: want Vegas either. I think the price is ridiculous on
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: Vegas too. So do what you want with that. Vegas,
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: the rest edge is going to be built into the
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: number two though. That's part of the reason why Vegas
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: is as heavily favored as they are. Although they still
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: are the significantly better team here. I don't know what
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: else to say about that game. I don't really even
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: have an opinion on that game. I don't like the game.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: I have not talked about the MLB game yet. I
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: do not agree with the Indians in that game at all, though.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: I'm going to talk about that game after the WNBA.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about it because we don't want to end
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: on the WNBA, even though I am going to talk
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: about college football briefly. But again, go watch my college
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: football show. from last night to get all that. The
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: WNBA playoffs started. I think they actually pushed the playoffs
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: back because you remember I was talking about how Atlanta's
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: home arena already had concerts scheduled in the arena for
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: days that the... finals are supposed to be happening so
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: I think the WNBA actually pushed these games back because
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: it looks like the home games for Atlanta will actually
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: be played in their arena now even though it looked
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: like they were going to play at a different arena
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: but that looks like that's not true now so I
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: don't know I mean it's been a week since these
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: teams have played so both teams coming off a bunch
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: of rest here Atlanta kind of got an easier task
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: because they got to avoid Minnesota because Minnesota got eliminated
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: by the Liberty. So Atlanta was able to dispatch of
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: the Liberty. Atlanta wasn't necessarily dominant in that series. They
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: beat the Liberty, the number eight seed. Golden State definitely
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: more impressive with their win over the Aces. That's how
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: the Golden State Valkyries got here. But it looks like
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: the public is coming in on Golden State here, man.
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: Although I think Golden State is the better team. This
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: game won't be a night game, though. It's in the afternoon, 3.30 p.m. Eastern,
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: NBC and Peacock. I think they might have a little
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: bit more of a home advantage if it was a
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: night game. But still, Atlanta does have to travel to
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: the Pacific Coast here, although they've had a week to
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: get out there. So they may have gone out there
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: early enough to adjust to the time zone. So I
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: don't really think the body clock thing is going to
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: be an issue here, especially because it's an afternoon game. But...
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: Golden State, I think they're the better team, but they're
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: not really laying that many points here. Neither team is
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: really that experienced. Golden State is a really fresh team,
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: a young team. They've had this really quick rise in
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: the league. They were an expansion team a couple years ago,
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: I think. They started putting money into the team, and
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: already now they're in the finals. So I think experience-wise,
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: I think Atlanta may have the edge there, even though
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: I think they don't have that much experience playing at
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: this level, this deep into the playoffs. But they do
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: have some playoff experience on this team, more so than
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: Golden State does. Based on that, maybe Atlanta is the
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: way to look here, although Golden State is definitely difficult
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: to beat at home. They run kind of a weird
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: offensive scheme where if you don't see it that often,
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: you get kind of thrown off by what they do
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: on offense. Atlanta, of course, I don't really want them
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: to win because I don't like Angel Reese, but that
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: doesn't have anything to do with how we're handicapping this year.
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: Looking at the market read for this, I'm pretty sure
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: that the money is coming in on Bucs. Atlanta here
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: let's see if this will reload here I don't know
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: what what is going on here shout out to wager
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: talk that's the site that I'm using here it looks
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: like there's something wrong with the I might have to
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: like maximize the window or something to get back up
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: here yeah there's something going on with the window right
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: now but there we go Golden State has 56% of
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: the tickets on them 72% of the cash on Atlanta
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: So the money is coming in on Atlanta here. It
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: is a really low total, 154.5 or something. I think
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: if you're going to play this game, I actually think
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: the under is probably the best way to play it
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: because you're talking about offenses that might come in super cold.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: These teams haven't played for a week. So that'll help
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: the defenses, and both teams play well defensively. So this
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: might be a struggle, like a defensive struggle for a
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: lot of the game. A first half under probably makes
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: a lot of sense here too, although you'll probably be
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: seeing a number of The books know that, too, though,
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: so probably the number on the first half is probably
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: going to be skewed more towards the lower side for
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: that reason. But, yeah, first half under I wouldn't disagree
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: with in this game. I think, yeah, some form of
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: under is probably the best way to play this game because, again,
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: the offenses with so much time off might be totally
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: out of rhythm. The defenses should just be pretty much
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: ready to go, and they're both good defenses. And it's
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: the finals, so usually you're going to see intense defenses. Yeah,
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: the under makes the most sense to me in this game.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Atlanta is getting the money. I'm not really
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: going to disagree with Atlanta here. But what I will
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: also say, though, is that Golden State won all three
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: regular season matchups between these two teams. But two of
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: them were close. Golden State won the first game at
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: home by 11. They won the second game at home
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: by only three, two days later. But that was a
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: little bit of a zigzag, right? So Golden State may
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: have kind of overlooked Atlanta after they beat them by
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: double digits. So maybe that's what went on in that game.
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: And then Golden State won in Atlanta by five. So
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: it does look like Golden State does have a little
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: bit of a matchup advantage here. And then Atlanta seemingly
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: couldn't really figure them out. And Atlanta, the best performance
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: they had was in that quick zigzag scenario. That's not
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: necessarily a great thing for Atlanta. So I don't love
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: Atlanta here, even though the money is all coming in
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: that way. So do what you want with that. But
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: I would prefer the under in this game. 88% of
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: tickets on the over, 54% of the cash on the over.
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: So Money seemingly agreeing with the under, and the total
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: hasn't really dropped. It's still sitting there at 154.5, which, yes,
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: is really low for a WNBA total, but it's low
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: for a reason, as I always say. Unless you think
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: maybe it's an overreaction, because the books obviously, they also
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: know what I just told you, that in these game
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: ones with a ton of rest, they tend to be
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: slow starting, so the under's... these games tend to be
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: a bit lower scoring for that reason. So the odds makers,
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: I think have shaded the line a little bit lower
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: for that reason, but still, I think the under makes
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: the most sense there. Yes, sir. Tower gang NPC. What's up, man.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: I'm never going to be free, man. Uh, yes. Thank you. Yes, sir.
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: All right. MLB, uh, is the last thing I'm going
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: to talk about here. Uh, before I just do the
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: final college football market read, um, Looking at this game, yes.
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: So as Dirty Sock pointed out, it got rained out yesterday.
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: The game today is going to be the same pitching matchup, though.
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: So I talked about yesterday's game. Tampa Bay had listed
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: Nick Martinez as the starter. He's going to pitch today.
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: And Cleveland wound up announcing Armstrong as their opener yesterday.
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: Like I said, Cleveland was going to go with a
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: bullpen game yesterday. And even with an extra day, they're
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: still going with a bullpen game here today. So... That
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: hasn't pushed their rotation back enough that they're going to move.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: Messick is still not ready to pitch again, you know
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: what I mean? So they're not going to move him up. No,
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: Williams pitched in game two. He pitched like two days ago. What? Yeah, no.
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: He literally pitched two days ago and made a complete start. Yeah,
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: there was no way Williams was going to pitch in
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: this game. Absolutely not. I think Tampa Bay has the
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: advantage here. I mean, they're down 2-1. They have an
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: actual starter on the mound here Martinez has had a
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: decent season the advanced analytics guys will say what they
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: want to about him because oh yeah he pitches to
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: contact but I mean he's done this for his whole
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: career and he's had a pretty decent career 3.1 ERA
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: this year 1.09 whip he was good on the road 2.38
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: road ERA this year. That's good. Didn't really pitch that
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: well against the Yankees, as I pointed out yesterday in
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: that divisional series, but I'm not going to put that
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: much weight into that. Also, we know that's a hitter-friendly stadium.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: The Yankees have a better offense, even without Judge. Their
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: offense is still, I would say, better than Cleveland's, even
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: though I know Cleveland has been hitting better recently, but
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: I still don't trust this Cleveland offense that much. And
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: Cleveland didn't hit well in the last game. Cleveland also
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: does not hit Martinez well. 58 at-bats against him, 224 average,
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: 636 OPS, 11-3 strikeout walk ratio. So I think Martinez
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: should set up to pitch pretty well here. Even if
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: he was getting ready to pitch yesterday and whatever, will
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: his schedule get thrown off a little bit by the
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: fact that he has to go through the warm-up process
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: again and get ready for this game?
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's a veteran pitcher, so I don't think
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: it should affect him too much here. And like I said,
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's got a bullpen game going here. Armstrong is their opener.
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: He has bad numbers, dude. He's a bullpen arm, not
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: good numbers here on the season, but it doesn't really
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: matter because he's only going to pitch like one inning.
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: He's been clean, though, in the playoffs. He's gone five
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: and a third innings, and he hasn't allowed a run.
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: He only has one hit allowed and no walks, five strikeouts.
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: So he's pitched well in the playoffs. I'll give him that.
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: The one hit did come in this series against Tampa Bay.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: a few days ago. Armstrong is typically not good against
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, though, so I'm not convinced that he's going
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: to be that good as an opener. But then what
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: Cleveland does after that is anybody's guess, really. I liked
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: Tampa more yesterday than I liked them today because Cleveland
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: was going to be in a scenario where they used
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: their best bullpen arms the previous day. They used all
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: of them. They used, like, Gattis and Smith, their closer
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: and whatever. But because they didn't actually wind up having
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: to play yesterday, those guys got yesterday off, so now
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: they're going to be available again today. So Cleveland... has
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen again today, whereas yesterday I was saying
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think they were going to have the bullpen
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: edge yesterday because of the rest scenario where they used
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: all their good relievers the game before that. So I
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: think the rain out does help Cleveland a little bit
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: here as far as they get to rest those relievers again.
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay's bullpen is still all right, though, and obviously
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: their bullpen will come in here rested as well. I
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: think the best move here is actually to play Tampa
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: first five. I think that's what I would do because
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's bullpen is the better one here now that they're
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: rested again. Martinez, I think, should have the upper hand
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: over whatever the hell Cleveland is doing with this bullpen
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: thing here. So, yeah, I think Tampa Bay has the
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: edge in the first five here, and maybe they don't
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: really have the edge for the remainder of the game.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: They do look public, though, even though they're losing the
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: series right now. 77% of tickets, 83% of the cash
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: on Tampa Bay. I don't really love playing a team.
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: It's that public, but, um, Tim Bay is a slight favorite.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: So the odds makers are telling you Tampa Bay has
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: the upper hand in this matchup. Uh, they're on the
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: road and their favorites. That's what the odds makers are
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: telling you. Um, yeah, again, I'd leave Tampa first five.
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: You probably have to pay a little bit more of
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: a price for them in the first five, but there's
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: still probably a reasonable money line price on it. That
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: I think that's the way I would play that if
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: I was going to play it. Um, Yesterday, I think
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: I was just saying straight up, just Tampa Bay, full game,
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: but I think first five makes more sense now that
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: the bullpen arms are going to return for Cleveland here potentially. Also,
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: some money indicating towards the under. I don't really agree
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: with that. 73% of tickets on the over, 61% of
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. So the money kind of
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: indicating on the under six and a half here. Really
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: no leeway there with that six and a half. The
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: under does get helped a little bit by the rain
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: out yesterday. Like now the offenses might be cooled off
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: a little bit. The bullpens had a chance to rest.
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: So that does help the case for the under here. Yeah,
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know. I would not want to
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: be sitting on an under in a game where one
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: team's going with a bullpen game though. So that is
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: not what I want to be doing. Yeah, I mean,
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: those are my thoughts on it. Yeah, I think Tampa
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: first five is my opinion in that game. All right.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: And now let's look at the final market read here.
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: So I have only college football today, but you heard
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: my strongest leans there in hockey. Blackhawks and Kings don't
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: really love the WNBA. I think the under is the
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: best approach there in this baseball game. I think Tampa
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: first five. But we have all college football today. We're
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: on Florida plus 11.5, Tennessee plus 8, Vandy minus 6,
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: Nevada plus 14.5, and Oregon. I know nobody's going to
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: like this one. Oregon minus 6.5. Those are my five players.
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: Let's hope I'm picking these right, man, because I had
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: some other fairly strong opinions in college as well. I
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: do still like Auburn plus the points. I like Boston
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: College a decent amount. San Diego State. was somewhere in
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: the mix there for me in my mind. They got
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: to get over the mumps though. So those are some
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: of the other, uh, stronger opinions I had on the, uh,
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: college board there you can go watch my show long
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: show I think there are probably a few other ones
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: in there there were a bit stronger than the rest
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: you can go see what I thought about those you
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: can see my shortened clips that I've been posting which
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: don't give the full analysis anymore trying to drive people
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: to the show here you know but go check all
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: that stuff out let's look at the market read real
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: quick let's see what we're what we're doing with these
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: football games here the ones that I actually have plays
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: on here the Florida Texas game Not looking good. Texas
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: is getting all the money here, and you can get 12.5
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: now with Florida. I still like that side, though. Do
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: whatever you want with that info, but that market read
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: looks bad. The Tennessee one looks right. Alabama's public with
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: less of the money on them. You should be able
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: to at least get 7.5 on that, no problem, because
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: it's right here. Oregon is definitely— that market read is agreeing
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: with me for sure, Oregon— has the money there. I
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: would not lay more than 7 with Oregon, but hopefully
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: you can get a 6.5 somewhere. I would pay a
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: little bit of juice for the 6.5 too to keep
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: it under that 7, but I wouldn't be opposed to
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: laying the 7 either with Oregon there if that's all
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: you can really do. I still think it's a really
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: cheap number because of the quarterback switch and their quarterback
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: in this game getting zero respect. I don't know how
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: much experience he has, although he is a senior at least.
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: Vandy only has a little bit of the market read
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: here with the money on them. That market read is
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: really difficult to figure out on that one, so I
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: don't know if I would say the markets really agree
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: with me on that or not. Nevada, I'm pretty sure
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: there's a pretty strong agreement with me here. Yes, there is.
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: So that's what you got there, and that's a huge
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: underdog with a really low total. And I think the
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: spot's good. That's what we got, man. That's going to
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: do it. So you got all the college football plays,
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: my only plays for the day. Turning that TV off there.
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: I told you, you'd like that effect there, turning the
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: TV off. Like and subscribe, man, to the channel here.
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Twitter and Instagram, as you can
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: see here, for the short clips. We're posting them pretty
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: much everywhere now on YouTube as well as shorts. Like,
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here. You get notified when I
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: go live. I'll go live with the NFL show tonight.
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: Going to see if Clint, Clint was in the chat
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: last night late for his San Diego State teams analysis.
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: He's a San Diego guy. He likes San Diego State
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: as well. Yeah, I'm going to see if he wants
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: to do a bald episode to preview the NBA season.
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I'll do like a solo preview.
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: If Clint isn't going to come on, I'll still do
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: a solo preview of it. But the NBA starts on Tuesday, man.
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: So got to get around to that. I'm probably not
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: going to have too much to say, but at least
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: I kind of know the personnel shifts and whatever whereas
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: for college basketball i'm going to be totally out of
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: my element um even though i had a good college
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: basketball season last year that's the in-season stuff scheduling dynamics
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: i'm really good at so not really the pre-season stuff
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: but be on the lookout for all that stuff listen
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: on audio apple spotify spreaker we had a little bit
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: of an another friday spike this week not as dramatic
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: as the others so let's get these numbers going man
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: you know hopefully the visuals are going to draw more
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: people in here maybe I need to look better because
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: I look like shit I literally just rolled out of
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: bed and threw a Bruins hat on can you tell
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: and I'm on no sleep because I was up on
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: you know to do the college football show last night
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: and getting all the stuff set up you know getting
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: everything uploaded and whatever so takes takes a whole while
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: man getting the audio up and getting all the videos
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: up and whatever yeah a lot of stuff going on
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: what else Loser cast every Tuesday night. Covered in uke
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: is my ukulele channel on YouTube, so you can check
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: that out. Patreon.com slash learn to toad if you want
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: to throw me some support over there. And I believe
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: that is it. Yeah. Florida, 12 and a half. Yeah,
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: there you go. At slightly reduced juice. I don't like
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: that the market is disagreeing with me on that. I
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: really don't. Like, I don't. I think my handicap is
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: correct with the situation on that one, so I don't know.
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: We will see. I'm kind of surprised that it seems
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: like a lot of the professionals like Texas there. Might
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: be sort of a thing where Texas can't overlook anybody
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: because they're trying to make the playoffs and they have
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: a difficult schedule. They need to make sure to win
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: these games that they're supposed to win. But they can
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: win without covering in that game, right? Their defense can
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: get them the win here while they still don't cover
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: that big number. So, yes, thank you, sir. That's going
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: to do it. I appreciate it. Peace, everybody.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: Let somebody answer.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: To lose this round alone. Hold on, not tonight, not
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: now Hold on, hold on Let me.
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: don't get the crown Hold on Hold.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: On, stay with me now Hold on, hold on You're
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: still here now guitar solo