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The Favorites - NFL Schedule 2022 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Welcome favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Chad Moment, chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: am gonna welcome in my BFF, my companion, my compadre,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: South Jersey's Finest, Philly's favorite son, professional Better signing hunter.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Chad. These are truly for me as a
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: professional better. He is the dog days of summer. Not
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: like normal people. My summer is really May to midway
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: through June and that's kind of over. So trying to
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: stay busy. Me and Chad, we don't do this show
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: that often. Uh so I summer, I'll trying to make
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: a quick story. Me and a couple of guys bought
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: row Home. So it's about ten rows, like ten A
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Holmes condos in a row home up in North Jersey.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Because our vision was, you know, we'll have six renters
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: and then four we'll rent out to our runners that
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: can live up in North Jersey. It's like New Jersey's
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: can go Ben p A and Bet in New York.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So we hired a guy you know to do fix
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: these places up. And again this is summer of I
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: think you've gotten three and a half done and came
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: to us in October of so again, I'm in the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: middle of football season doing this stuff with you chat
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and he goes, listen, I'm losing money now working for
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: you guys, because supplies have gone up so much because
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: everyone in America started doing fixing their asses up. Sorright.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: We sorry, buddy, you're fired. We got rid of hand.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: We'll do it ourselves. Blah blah blah. No one did
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: anything I would say for a good good year, honestly,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: because all of us we already had three three of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: them done. We're doing them out and then we were
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: letting the runners sleep in this kind of like kind
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: of the beat up condo has ever left there. So
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I've been trying to go up there and fix stuff up, Chad,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: now that we're in the off season and I'm not
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: meant to. These hands were not meant for hard work.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Uh learning stuff though learned you gotta turn the main
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: water off to the house before you start taking pipes out. Um.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get into the grossness of opening
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: up pipes. I've been in a building for over fifty years,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: but you can imagine it. So it's been it's been experienced,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: let's say, trying to fix up an old row home.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: But I'm then loving it. It's honestly fun work learning
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: to do this stuff because I have no handyman skill
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: in my body. You and me both, buddy, uh, Any
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: single time something easy had done in my house, lightbulb changing,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: you know, the dishwasher joor is a jar. I look
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: at my wife and I say, it feels like an
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: architect job. They're gonna say, this is why we had kids. Wow, No,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: it's why she went to grad school. This is why
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: you spent three years to get a graduate degree in architecture,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: because you married a man who wants nothing to do
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: with any of us. What you should do is hire Stacy,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: and then Stacy can hire a contractor who can go
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: up to North Jersey for you and fear it all out.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe you might take her up one and we have
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I would say four places left to do again, the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: guy did three and a half in fall. Of all
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: we've completed since then is about one and a half.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So let you know we struggling Simon, listen, you're in
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: the dog days of summer. You've got nothing to do
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: but renovate right now. Meanwhile, the NFL, as always never ends,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: sided schedule dominates the conversation days and days of programming.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: We got more to talk about. We got odds for
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: prime time games. We got Week one odds. We've got
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the Eagles bear a tilt in week fifteen. We got
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to talk about how I definitely went through the Bear
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: schedule and tried to pinpoint every game that felt like
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: a win it was not looking like a lot um.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: We got Sean Kerner put out of strength of schedule,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: we got a uh some win totals questions that people
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: have been asking us about before we do any of that.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Let's get to the main event right now. NFL Week one.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I've got thoughts on my favorite bets. You've got thoughts
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: on your favorite bets. You go, I go, you go,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I go, you go? First Week one favorite bet, Give
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: it to me right now, so we'll dive in again
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: on all these games. But early bets. When you're looking
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: at this stuff, do you want to think how how
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: our lines canna move through? My favorite bets were Week
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: one or a lot of dogs, which I think might
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: come down because other pros are gonna bet these numbers.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: There's some dogs that don't touch because I think the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: public's gonna come in so heavy on the other side,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: it's gonna keep giving me a better number once you
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: get closer to kickoff. So people, I gotta keep in
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: mind here week one. I've never seen anything like this before.
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  Speaker 1: We have ten home dogs Week one, ten home dogs
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  Speaker 1: Week one. Chat Like every pro I know is licking
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  Speaker 1: their lips. This is love home dogs. We love home dogs.
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  Speaker 1: This is too easy. They're really the public is so
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: heavy about what happened last year that Week one. They're
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: still thinking as if it's last year. It's like, there's
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: so much turnover, there's so many guys who are back
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: healthy compared to these teams last year. It's completely flipped.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And the bookmakers know that, and they kind of sucker
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: these people into these bets. Especially people are betting road
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: favorite week one. I mean, it's kind of crazy. So
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: my favorite bet right now for a week one that
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: just jumped out right away with the Texans. We have
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: the Sexans. People are viewing them as one of the
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: worst teams in all football going against the Colts team
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: that you know they added in Matt Ryan. They're exciting
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: coming into this season, just because we saw how great
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor was, We saw how good this Colts offense
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: could be when Carson Wentz was playing good. We expect
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan to be a step up from Carson Wentz
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  Speaker 1: last year. So I think the public is in on
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the Colts, which you know, I get. I think the
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: culture a good team. But are they seven a half?
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Are they eight? Are they eight and a half points
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  Speaker 1: better than the Texans Week one in a divisional game
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  Speaker 1: on the road. No, So the first bets I made
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: right when it came out was the Texans a plus
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  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Hit it again at plus eight.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: I took it again, a plus eight and a half.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: A certain books, it's that's one of those numbers that
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I love in a divisional matchup for an early week
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: where we joke all the time chat it's just the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: state of November. Okay, obviously this would be very I
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: do this very different folse late in the season early
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  Speaker 1: season like this, I mean, come on, that's way too
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: many points for any team to be catching on the road.
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  Speaker 1: Let it lit a Colts team that did not make
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  Speaker 1: the playoffs last year, like they don't have this moxie
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  Speaker 1: that they should be respected and backed with. So to me,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: if Feels are again free points, maybe two or three
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  Speaker 1: free points from the public here taking the Texans team,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: it's interesting, Uh, I couldn't agree more. Who love the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Texans in this spot. They were incredibly conderative last year,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: and I think the Colts are so inconsistent and they
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: really have not figured out a way to dominate bad
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: teams during the Frank reag era. Right, So that's number one.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Completely agree with your assessment on the Texans, especially at
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: such a big number. Number two. You said there were
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: ten home dogs. There's actually eleven. I'm looking at it
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: right now. The Ramps to open the week against the Bills.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: The Bills are one point favorites. The Falcons are three
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  Speaker 1: and a half point dogs to the Saints. The Panthers
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: are four point dogs to the Browns. The Bears are
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: six and a half point dogs to the Forts. The
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Alliance four point dogs to the Eagles, the Texans. We
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: mentioned um. The Jets are four point dogs to the Ravens.
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  Speaker 1: The Cardinals three point dogs of the the Chiefs. The Vikes
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  Speaker 1: one and a half to the Packer Cowboys, two and
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  Speaker 1: a half to the Bucks, and the Seahawks h four
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  Speaker 1: points to the Denver Broncos. There's one game that I'm
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: really surprised. Excuse me, you didn't take first Lions plus
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: four hosting the Eagles. This is a roar Lions roar spot,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: not a fly Eagles fly, a roar Lions roar spot.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It is a home game. Dan Campbell is gonna have
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: this team jacked and ready to go. We already know
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: this is a physical team. This is a team that
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: can control the line of scrimmage. That bodes well playing
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: against the defensive line at the Eagles that is in
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  Speaker 1: semi rebuild mode. We know this team is going to
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: be physical defensively. We've seen them beat competitive Jalen Hurts.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: We still don't know what we're getting, even with more weapons.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Um lines plus four, you know you too, well, yeah,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: that was gonna be one. That was my next one.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean lines, they're actually up to four and a
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  Speaker 1: half now, and FanDuel Um It's it's hard not to
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: want to take this line right now, and I did
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: take it, but I would say to people listening, maybe
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: you can keep waiting, because I do think this is
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: gonna keep because again, it opened up a three and
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Now it's with the four and alf On
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: FanDuel and we're in May. So that that that's already
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: showing you where the public is kind of deciding where
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: they're gonna put their money. So to me, I love
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: that lines number Chad just touched on it. Where we
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: have a team that's very physical, the Eagles. That's what
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: their key, the key for the ego success to the
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: upcoming season. Is there a physical team, good offensive line,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a strength in their d line. You know that that's
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: kind of the egos what they need to do to win.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what Detroit wants. Detroit wants to bully team.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: So to me, the same tones sent are both these teams. Honestly,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is gonna be where we look
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: back at both one of these teams. This game will
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: maybe decide one of these teams get in the plays
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: one team missing the playoffs. Like both teams are expected
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: to finish second their division right now. Not the Lions,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't say that, but the Eagles are. And that's
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: this is a crucial way to start your season here.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles, I know, we haven't done much scheduled talk.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: They have a very favorable schedule. The Lions are right
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: there with them. The Lions got ranked most people have
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: them ranked number one for scheduled So to me, this
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: is the tone center for this Eagles team, this Campbell team,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: where we think we're getting great value week one year.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Because to me, I saw this line, I checked my system,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: made it a pick. Now this could move to maybe
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: minus went towards the Eagles when we get close for
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: the season. If I started like what I'm seeing from them,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: and I like their system. But I can see this
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: line moving more towards Detroit as more people are gonna
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: get like Detroit. I'm telling I'm telling you guys, Detroit
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: is going to be a darling too. A lot of
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: people coming to the season, the nerds, everyone, They look
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: at the numbers. This is a huge number team. All
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the numbers point to this team massively approving from last year.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: How unlucky they were last year was one thing. Again.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: They had seven games come down to five points or
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: less for them, Like, that's that's insane for them. Last year,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I think you only had what four wins to come
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: in second. So yeah, it's it is tough where I'm
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: looking at this matchup and obviously want the Eagles to
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: be the pick here, But just going by the numbers,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: you're getting three four points of value on the lines
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: right now, just because what I just talked about, they're
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: one of the worst teams last year and it's a
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: new year. Cordner Sean Croner, uh the four easiest schedules
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: in the NFL inwo and you can find this in
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app very easy to find. UH. Giants
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: have the easiest according to his model, Eagles second easiest,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Commander's third easiest, Lions fourth easiest. Um, okay, so you
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: like the Texans plus seven and a half plus eight
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half against the Colts. I like
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the Lions plus four plus four and a half in
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Week one against the Eagles. Give me another one easy
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: easy bet for Week one Ravens minus five and a
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: half minus five. I would take this up to seven,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: no problem. The Jets again, we're gonna talk a little
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: bit more about them coming down the show, So I
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: don't want to be just punching the crap out of them,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: but they're just not there. Yet people, I get the excitement.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I've seen the numbers. How they're one of the most
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: bet teams right now to go over their win total
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and to win their division. They're just not there yet.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: And historically the Ravens Week one it's free money again
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: you always this is for people like our loyal fans,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: listen to us year round every preseason game you take
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: the Ravens money line. I believe they're on a run
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: of like thirteen and o or fourteen and oh in
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: prices of games winning straight up week one. Historically, Hardball
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: his teams have dominated Week one. I don't even remember
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: if us for the year before, remember the beat Miami
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: like fifty to ten Week one and Lamar Jackson through
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: like five or six touchdowns. It's there's just something about
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: this Ravens team Week one. They always come really prepared.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Now I have a Ravens team coming back from a
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: down year, a bunch of guys getting healthy coming back.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: So that's that's that's built into this number because the
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Jets team are just so hyped up right now. Like,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: to me, this number should have been seven. That's a
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: fair number for this game. The fact that you're getting
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: under seven under six, two very key numbers. I'm taking
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: that Ravens number right now because you're not bet favorite
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: this early, but to me, that's such a key number
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of five and a half being under that six. I'm
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: grabbing it right now, this Ravens number. H I love that.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: I love that because I already feel like people act
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: as if the Jets are at win team because they
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: drafted the right athletes in the right spot at the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: right time, and they still got a quarterback named Zack
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Wilson who nobody really knows if he's any good. So
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: now every and things, the Jets can compete with the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Patriots for second place in the a f C East.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: It's idiotic. So much value on the Ravens, even though
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: it's on the road. Um, I love the team early.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you one more. I don't want
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: you get angry at me, but if you give me
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: a team who's quarterback is coming off an injury with
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: a new coach going on the road as more than
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: a field goal favorite against a division rival, I am
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: going to take the home dog division arrival. In this spot.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: We are an Atlanta Falcons podcast. Give me the Falcons
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: fear Jamis, I don't fear Marcus Mariota. I like this
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: team to cover by a field goal in a close
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: game between you not very good teams in Atlanta. Go
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: walk me back, tell me I'm wrong, But I know
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: grosser than growths. I gave you professional grossness. No people
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: know I love doing around Robbins. This is one of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the teams Atlanta's round robin I threw in their money line. Um,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: gross disgusting. Might be the only game Atlanta wins the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: entire season. But Chad just touched on what a beautiful,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: beautiful spot for this Atlanta team hosting a division arrival
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: at home. No one knows what the hell offense Atlanta
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna be running. They got Mariota Mariota, So to me,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is a team that's gonna be terrible, but early
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: on they're gonna be able to sneak up on teams.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Just like last year, Denver terrible teams started three, Carolina
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: terrible team started three, and oh it's because they are
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: running different offenses. Teams weren't prepared for their type of
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: offensive styles. So I love that pick chat three and
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: a half too. That's such a key number. I took
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the number as well. But this is a money line
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: bet for me as well, because Atlanta, this game stinks
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: like no one's gonna betting their money line. Everyone's be
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on like you just had the fun, exciting
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Jamis Winston Saints team. So if you want to hold
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: out and I bet it, I get it. But I
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: honestly would take three and a half right now because
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: that is such a key number. Can I just say this,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: if I'm listening to this podcast for the first time,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: you listen to me versus you and think Millman might
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: be more of a professional, better than Simon Hunter, because
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: because my picks are so much grosser the Falcons and
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the Lions, I'm going with the Falcons and the Lions.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: You at least Ravens in there, who a lot of
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: people think is the best futures bet at like one.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: At this point, nobody's gonna be bet on my teams.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna bet on my teams to even the oath,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: to win their season, to go over their season win totals.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I am a I am in professional form right now
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: we're gonna dominate this year. I can't wait. Honestly, that
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: was my first thought. I saw, like, you just had
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: eleven underdogs week one. I was like, oh my god,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I have to wait all summer to bet this. It's
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be killing me because this we love it, all
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: these dogs, it's home dogs, it's it's the best. We
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: might win thirty thousand dollars in Week one together a team.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I know that's like what you're betting on sort of
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: one halftime, but for me, that's a big amount of money. Yeah,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: there's that's gonna be like my the week before my
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Sunday futures. I'm just gonna call my last minute futures.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not walking around with bags of cash. Um. All right.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: The other thing I want to mention I I talked
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: about not that we're done with this, but I mentioned
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Kerner's strength of schedule, um, because I do think it's
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: interesting to sort of share what he's excuse me, little
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: COVID cough lingering covid cough there, um, what he's looking at.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Because I mentioned the Giants, the Eagles, the Commanders, the Lions,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: the fifth team, there's the Bears and then six is Cowboys,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: seventh is Colts, eighth is Vikings, ninth is Packers ten Bucks.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: So in that top ten, there's a couple of teams Bucks, Packers, uh, Colts.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I think that a lot of people might consider to
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: be Super Bowl favorites. Um so I just think that's interesting.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Schedule go ahead. I was gonna say, I think people,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: if they know us, they know now like we're all
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: about you just not wasting your money and saving your money,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: and we're screaming all last year. Do not put a
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: single dollar on the Chiefs or the Buccaneers to make
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: it back to the super Bowl for the simple fact
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: that we told you how lucky you need to get
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: to make it to the super Bowl. There's no value
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: in teams that just went to the super Bowl to
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: make it back. You said super Bowl, and look at
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: what happened. I mean that the Ovous to Kansas City
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: was a quarter away from making it, but the Buccaneers
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: is just there's just so much that's go right for
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: a team to make it. So, like Chida said, those
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: teams there are the top ones. It just don't don't
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: put your money to those teams. You can, you can
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: still find good value at the very end of the
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: year with these certain teams, no surprise the hardest strength
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: of schedule, according to Kerner. Sean Kurner of Action Network,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: our lead predictive analyststy two Kans City Chiefs, no surprise
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: considering they got the Chargers, they got the Broncos, and
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: they got the Raiders thirty one. The Raiders also in
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: the top ten, the Broncos and then the Chargers. So
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: all four a f C West teams are in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: top ten of the of the hardest schedule in the NFL,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: according to Sean Kurner. And by the way, the Seahawks,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, and the Rams are all on the top
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: twelve just goes to show you how hard everyone thinks
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the NFC West is going to be. The playoffs are
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: heating up, and you can make free game feel like
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• 22:37
  Speaker 1: there's one game on the board right now, and we
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: really got to talk about Week fift December in Chicago,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles are going to be visiting the Chicago Bears.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: You're an Eagles fan, I'm a Bears fan. I'm pretty
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: allergic to the cold. I think you and I need
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: to figure out who that listens to this podcast is
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: going to be benevolent and invite us into their suite
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: for the Bears Eagles in December in Chicago. I know
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: a guy in Chicago exactly Client. I can definitely reach
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: out to him and see if I can get to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: make that happen with us, Which would be hilarious to
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: go to Soldier Field with a game with you. We're
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: both our teams be six and ten, five and eleven
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: at this like they might be horrible this season, so
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I would love that chet going to Chicago with you.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: We gotta figure out an event. Maybe we'll do like
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: a live podcast the night before or getting out with fans. Uh.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: You know, we'll probably stay at my dad's with him
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: and his wife. You can have one of the bedrooms.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I can have one of the bedrooms. We can share
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: a bathroom. It'll be like a sitcom. That'd be amazing.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: How fun would that be. It would be great, especially
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: because I I don't know another time in my life
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: i'd ever go to Soldier Field for a game. You
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? You know, we can go to
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Gibson's the night before and have dinner, fancy steakhouse, pick
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: up some divorce days. That's where they all hang out.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: It's great for you. That's your speed. Man. You'd kill
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: it there. Oh my god, you'd walk in. All the
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: five to fifty five year old divorced women would think
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: you're so cute. Oh my god. We would have so
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: much fun. Now I've heard a viagra triangle. As long
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: as you don't take me there, we're good. That is
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: the literal center of the viagra triangle. That is one
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: of the three points. It is like, dude, that is
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: right there. Oh my god. Um. Anyways, we gotta figure
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: out a way to get to that one. We'll make
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: a whole event out of it if we can get so.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: I just need to be inside. I cannot. I cannot
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: do this outside. I'm sorry, So reach out to chat An.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: You fans have a box and you want me, and
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: you had to be your friends for four hours. You
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: know how to find us. We'll do whatever it takes. Yeah,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: we'll have you on the show with us too. Afterwards,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: come on the show. You can talk about how amazing
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: we were as guests, how we embarrassed ourselves, whatever it is.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I just need someone to invite us. That's all there
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: is to it. Um. A lot of talk about wind
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: totals after the schedule came out. Uh, did you make
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: any specific moves? Yeah, and just real quick, I'll go
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: I'll go with my I'll just tell you my top
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: five and my bottom fire for schedule because again me
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: and Sean, we're gonna a little different how we measured it.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: So actually have the worst schedule, even though they have
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: the shortest amount of distance traveled. I've already schedule as Pittsburgh.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh just has a really tough schedule this year. So
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: I have them as thirty second. I got thirty first,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: got the Chiefs, then I had the Patriots, then I
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: had the Bengals, and then I have Houston the Jets,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: which are pretty much on way I want to be.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: They're pretty much the same grade. So I really loved
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Houston coming into the year. But the schedule, gods did
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: not have no favors. They really don't have that favor
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: schedule or the flip side. My five best schedules, again
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not a homer. Number one is the Evils, they
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: have a really nice schedule. Number two the Lines, which
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: again me Chad made those bets and talked about it
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: before the schedule came out. I love the Lions coming
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: into it. You look at the line schedule. They have
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: no games against the team off of bye week, which
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: is insane for entire season. They have no games against
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: a team with longer arrest than them, So it means,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you know, if they play on a Sunday, the team
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: they played place on a Sunday, If there they played
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: a Thursday, the team they played or whatever isn't a
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: longer rest than them. So again, these little things work
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: out for these teams. That's why you know we're gonna
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: talk about lines over and the Eagles over and things
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: like that. Sorry, I'll go back to it, but Eagles one,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Lines too, Giants three, Bears four, and then I have
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: a coin flip between Washington and the Vikings in that
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: fifth spot. So to me, it makes sense. Okay, we
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: just talked about teams and bad divisions. We expect the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: NFC East to be bad, we expect the NFC North
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: to be bad. That makes sense why these teams would
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: have favorable schedules over under Buddy, Well, hold on, what's that,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Because it's interesting you and Kerner are basically aligned and
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: five easiest not the same order, but the five teams. Yeah,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: and uh, excuse me, five artist. Uh, he's got the
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Steelers at fourth hardest, You've got him as second hardest.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: But generally the five are the same. Yeah. The only
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: one on The biggest different I saw was he had
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the Raiders having a much harder schedule than I did,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: which again I think that's because of the division their division. Yes,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: so it all makes sense. But yeah, it always feels
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: good when I'm on the same side as a guy
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: like Sewan, who I know is putting in the time
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: where I put in the time, But a lot of
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: my numbers it's like it's gonna be keep getting updated.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: So it's nice to see that at least I'm on
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: the same track as a lot of other guys. Yeah
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: you are, you totally are, all right, give me some
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: uh uh wind totals that you've adjusted since the schedule
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: and no shocker here. I love the under for the Jets.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Um again. I want our fans. We'll talk about it
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: just real quick, because we're such good, loyal lovers of
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: our fans. I gotta keep reach out that man and
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: literally says he needs to know. Would you bet the
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Jets plus five fifty to finish top two in their
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: division in the a f C East. No, no, no, no, no, no, no,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: no no. I just would not do it at all. Miami.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Say what you want about them, I still think they
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: are step above. And with the Patriots, I know there
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: are step above. Okay, we watched the Jets last year.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, just get embarrassed by Belichick. So to me,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: it's too tough. With the Bills, the Patriots in Miami,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: all those teams are just so good. I just can't
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: see the Jets doing it. And that's why I've been
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: on there under. In that division, it's gonna be really
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: hard to come by wins. Like say, I'm just being
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: nice to them, and I gave them two wins, right,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: they still went from they still one from the Patriots
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: they were doing for their division. I could not find
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: four more wins for them for the rest of the season,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: and the numbers check out put into my system. I
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: had them at four point seven wins for the year.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: So the fact that it's been been up to five
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: and a half to six at some books, I really
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: do love that under for this Jets team, and I'm
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: again I love their future prospects. But this year eight
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: fade fade there. They're too young. Jets are number one
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: in both tickets and money, Jets over five and a half,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: FanDuel Bet, MGM points Bet, Caesar's and DraftKings. Remember who
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: at Caesar's there are three more bets on the Jets
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to hit the over than on any other team. This
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: according to Darren Revel in a story in the Action
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Network app. I remember at this point last year you
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: said the exact same thing about the Vikings. I believe
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: it was all the money and bets were on the
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: over of the Vikings, and what happened we talked about.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: They went just under by half a game. So the
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: books know that they know in these numbers get inflated.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: The fact you're gonna plus number right now in the
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Jets just shows the hype that's happening right now and fandals.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: So yeah, five and a half is plus one third
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: at bet MGM. The next most bet on teams are
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the Lions six and a half over and the Steeler
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. The Steelers total is interesting to me. Look,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin just doesn't have losing seasons. It's a fine
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: line between you know, drinking wine and squashing grades. And
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: this is the Mitch Robisky breakout year. So I don't
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: mind Stealers over seven and a half, even in spite
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: of their challenging schedule. I loved it coming in because
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: because the schedule that you just talked about, I can't
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: do it. I just cannot do in that division. And
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: I was banking a little bit on Watson gets suspended.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: The more I read it, does it sound like that
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: guy is gonna get, you know, in real trouble. So
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: that means we have a full, full and healthy Brown's team,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: a full and healthy uh Ravens team, and we know
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: what the Bengals are. Last year, Pittsburgh was not I
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: don't want to say they were lucky, but they were
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: catching this Ravens team banged up. They're catching this Brown's
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: team all banged up. It's you just can't kind of
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: predict that kind of stuff. So just like at the numbers,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: I would take their under it. But that actually makes
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: me a little nervous. You said Detroit is being one
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: of the most bet on over teams, because that was
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: my next favorite bet I loved Detroit of five and
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: a half. I love him at six. I love him
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: at six and a half over uh seven, that would
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: give me pause. But if you can still get six
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: and a half, I would take that number right now,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: if you're so inclined, just because their schedule lines up
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: very nice. The Vikings have an entire new team. Okay,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: they they're they're switching their defensive style. The Zummers gone right,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: So they have a new offensive coordinator, they have a
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: new DC. We've seen what's gonna happen with the Bears.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: The Bears are kind of in this fluctuation of rebuild.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: We don't really know what they're going to be because
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: they of course have a new coaching staff as well.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: The Lions still have the same coaching staff to stay
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: mo see the stay in DC it's just all there
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: for this Lions team to really take a step up.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: So as long as you're getting under seven still, I
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: love this number for this Lions team. It's even more
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: so now the schedules out. It's just it's just all
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: shaping up to be a good year Cliff Lines team
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: to bounce back, and to me, I have them great
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: out nine nine wins, so getting an extra two and
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: a half of games that that's a big discrepancy. That's
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: why I'm people are gonna say I'm like losing my
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: mind with a Lions team. It's just the numbers play out,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: like the numbers really love the Lions. I personally, I
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: don't want to be doing this, but I have to
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: follow and trust my system. That's saying this team is very,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: very under value just because of people's perception of this team.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do it. They're making me do it.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do this. I don't want to
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: be the guy that loves the Lions, you know. I
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: don't want to be the guy that's like their motivation is,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: let's play well early in the years so we can
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: get flexed into a prime time game in weeks five
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: to fifteen. I don't want to be that guy, but
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to be that guy. Now, do you have,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: speaking of prime time games, like where before we go,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: do you have any favorite prime time games? Because I know,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, what a dream here for the Buffalo Bill
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: is Opening night? They got a Thanksgiving game, they got
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: uh man, I'm looking at I think I have five
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: prime time games pulled up right here versus six. That's
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: a that I think it's five. Well, look, the Bears
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: have a few prime time games. I'm super excited about,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: super excited to ruin my night. Um, but I do
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: think that what the NFL didn't this year putting the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Bills in the Rams on prime time and Thursday night,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: it's beautiful. Love it. Yeah, And I don't know if
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: he's ever had man Mitch has ever had the experience.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: He's never won a Super Bowl, but as a former
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl winning fan of a team, having the open
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: night game is seriously the best. It's like, even though
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: it's again the Rams game, you get to watch your
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: team with everyone else and then you're done for the weekend.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: You get the gamble about fantasy. It's just a really
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: nice way to start Week one if you're a Diard fan.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: But looking at this year schedule, Chad, we got three
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: games on Thanksgiving standard, We've got three games on Christmas
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: this year, which is NBA fans and NBA holes must
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: be piste. We've got three Lending games and we have
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: a Munich game in a game in Germany and up
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: on it because I was like, I need to learn
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: more about Germany and why they love football. Still apparently
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: they have one of the biggest Seahawk fan bases in
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the world is in Germany. So the Seahawk you're playing
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers in Germany, it counts as the home game
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: for the Seahawks. Interesting, very interesting that we have a
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: game in Germany nowadays, so again, three games in London,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: one game in Germany, another game in Mexico City. The
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: it's crazy right now to travel all these different teams.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we're gonna touch talk about all season, but
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: it's crazy. It's all over the world now. I believe
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: they call it Mountion, Munichi, Munich Mountion. I've been there.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: I've been there. I had a beer the size of
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's head. You were Do you ever go in
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: the Autobahn. I don't think I did. No I would.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not afraid of driving fast. Um, Simon, I think
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: we covered it all. We really dug into the NFL.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: I feel really good about it. I'm super excited to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: be the professional better on this podcast, Um, and reframe
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: my legacy. I think it's bullshit. I'm not getting enough
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: credit for knowing how to bet. Everyone thinks I'm just
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: a guy just you know. Moving the conversation along here,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Simon gets to come in. Dude, I've been doing this
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: for so long. I am a professional. Better numbers move
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: when I make the fucking bet, I already know lions, lions,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: You're probably not gonna get like plus four anymore. It's
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: probably gonna go down to three and a half. You'll
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: be lucky to get the hook on the falcons after
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: this podcast comes out. Whatever. That's how they call you,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Chad Number, the mover of numbers. So it makes sense
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: right now that you're saying these things and you're worried
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: about the line movement. You know what they call me? Moneymaker?
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: You two old. You're just an old man moneymaker from now,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: please refer to me. That's a poker player from two
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: thousand four and his name is Chris h. I'm stealing
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: it alright. For Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Chad Melman. This has been the favorites from the Volume
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network. Download us from Apple, podcast, Spotify, wherever you
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: get your podcast. Rate reviews, subscribe, give us five stars,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: I love you,