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Why Anthony Scaramucci Is Predicting Trump Will Lose with In the City · Merryn Talks Money

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
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Speaker 2: Hey listeners, Maren thumset web here. Hope you're enjoying your
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Speaker 2: spring break. As I mentioned on our last episode, I
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Speaker 2: Maren Talk's Money will be available on the twelfth of April.
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Speaker 2: In the meantime, I thought i'd introduce you to another
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Speaker 2: podcast here at Bloomberg. In This City is hosted by
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Speaker 2: my colleagues Francine Lacuid, David Merritt and alegra Stratton, and
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Speaker 1: There were some memorable characters in Donald Trump's administration during
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Speaker 1: his presidency, but the most memorable, arguably was probably Trump's
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Speaker 1: former communications director Anthony S. Kermucci. Now the Mooch, as
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Speaker 1: he's known, was in the role for eleven days and
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Speaker 1: if you dare say ten, he'll quickly correct you and
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Speaker 1: He's got a lot of thoughts about what might happen
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Speaker 1: to America and the world if Trump gets another go
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Speaker 1: in the White House.
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Speaker 3: Now.
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Speaker 1: I saw Anthony at an event at Bloomberg House in Davos,
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Speaker 1: and he was actually in a corner with fifteen people
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Speaker 1: laughing around him because he really brings some of these
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Speaker 1: stories alive. He's pretty dramatic, and in Davos everyone was
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Speaker 1: trying to figure out what a Trump two point zero
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Speaker 1: in the White House would mean and whether he would
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Speaker 1: get it. So I thought it made sense to get
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Speaker 1: someone who was alongside Trump during the campaign and with
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Speaker 1: him for a part of the ride in the White
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Speaker 1: House into our studio here in London. So this week
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Speaker 1: of conversation with Anthony Scaramucci about whether a Trump presidency
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Speaker 1: would be more right wing, how dangerous he would be,
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Speaker 1: or how beneficial he would be for financial services, and
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Speaker 1: why he's such a believer in bitcoin. Welcome to in
1:49
Speaker 1: the City from Bloomberg's offices in the heart of the
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Speaker 1: Square Mile. This is our weekly podcast about the stories
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Speaker 1: driving the conversations of policymakers, howard brokers and finine seers
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Speaker 1: in the power centers the world over.
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Speaker 4: I'm Francin Laqua and I'm David Merritt.
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Speaker 1: And like you're actually sitting this one out, Dave.
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Speaker 4: Yes, here in spirit, if not embody always.
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Speaker 1: Now I'm really excited, Dave about this week's interview with
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Speaker 1: Anthony Sciamucci, which we actually did with the friend of
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Speaker 1: the show, our opinion columnist Adrian Woolridge.
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Speaker 4: Yes, it just feels incredibly timely to speak to somebody
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Speaker 4: with such firsthand knowledge of Trump, how he operates, and
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Speaker 4: he had a ringside seat first time round, to think
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Speaker 4: about what might happen if he gets back in the
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Speaker 4: White House. It is when you mentioned it was on
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Speaker 4: everyone's mind that Davos Francine, I mean, I'm going to
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Speaker 4: be back in America next week. It is certainly on
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Speaker 4: everyone's mind that the elections not till November, but it's
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Speaker 4: going to be upon us for we know it.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, And Anthony Skiramucci has this unique inside because he
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Speaker 1: was really a Trump lover, right, he backed Trump, he
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Speaker 1: went to work for Trump, and now that he's like
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Speaker 1: one of the fiercest critics of Donald Trump.
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Speaker 4: That is the amazing thing, isn't it The swing of
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Speaker 4: opinion here from lover to hater and you know, we
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Speaker 4: are tracking closely, of course, across America a public opinion
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Speaker 4: about Donald Trump, who, as we all know, is very divisive.
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Speaker 4: We've got a pole that we're running every month. It's
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Speaker 4: in the seven what they call the Purple States, the
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Speaker 4: swing states. That did you see the one that was
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Speaker 4: out this week, Francine. This was a particularly interesting one
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Speaker 4: because it showed for the first time a bit of
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Speaker 4: a bump for Biden, attributed maybe to some of his
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Speaker 4: perceived success at the State of the Union address, but
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Speaker 4: he is narrowing the gap in those crucial states. Now
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Speaker 4: are people clutching at straws here to think? Is there
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Speaker 4: some hope for Biden because he's still behind in lots
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Speaker 4: of these places, or is this the start of a
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Speaker 4: new trend.
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Speaker 1: It's interesting because Anthony scom which he doesn't think Trump
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Speaker 1: will get in, although he's much better organized, so he's
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Speaker 1: a better campaigner, he says, And if he does get
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Speaker 1: in in the White House, he'll know what to do,
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Speaker 1: so he could be potentially more dangerous for US democracy,
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Speaker 1: Ascriamucci says, and for the rest of the world.
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Speaker 4: You know, but this is one of the things, isn't
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Speaker 4: it that we all remember, or maybe we've sort of
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Speaker 4: collectively forgotten a bit back in twenty sixteen. No one
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Speaker 4: thought Trump was going to win then, and you know,
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Speaker 4: sort of here we are again at this point where
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Speaker 4: the media commentators, even people who were at the ringside seat,
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Speaker 4: are saying, no, it's not possible, it's not going to happen.
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Speaker 4: So I'll be visiting the Washington Bureau next week and
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Speaker 4: I definitely get the sense from everybody there that you know,
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Speaker 4: November is going to be a upon us before we
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Speaker 4: know it, and this is a rematch. It's looking pretty
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Speaker 4: certain between Biden and Trump, so everyone is dusting themselves
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Speaker 4: off for that and acknowledging. You know, covering Trump administration
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Speaker 4: last time around was exhausting. You never knew what was
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Speaker 4: going to happen when you woke up every day. So
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Speaker 4: everyone is bracing for more of that. But you know,
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Speaker 4: we're Our coverage out of DC, of course, will be spectacular.
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Speaker 4: We've got our Washington newsletter, We've got a podcast every week,
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Speaker 4: We've got our daily news show. So check it all
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Speaker 4: out on bloomboag dot com.
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Speaker 1: Good plug, nice shameless plug, Dave. But we do we're
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Speaker 1: pretty on top of it. Here's our conversation with the
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Speaker 1: former White House Communications director Anthony Scaramucci. Adrian, how excited
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Speaker 1: are you by having Anthony scirmuch? I'm excited. I'm excittionally
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Speaker 1: excited because for the next hour.
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Speaker 3: We will get you everywhere with me.
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Speaker 1: Because for the next hour we'll listen to two stories
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Speaker 1: of what it was like working for eleven days with
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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, his prediction the US economy, and we'll talk
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Speaker 1: a little bit about the markets too. Thank you for
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Speaker 1: joining us.
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Speaker 3: It's it's awesome to be here.
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Speaker 1: Do you ever get tired of talking about your time
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Speaker 1: in the White House?
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Speaker 3: You know? I mean, if I'm asked about it, I'll
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Speaker 3: talk about it. You know. I like talking about it
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Speaker 3: with kids because it was such an epic fail and
5:43
Speaker 3: getting fired like that was a It was the appearance
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Speaker 3: of a catastrophe, and I think it's a good thing
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Speaker 3: to talk to kids about where you can have missteps
5:52
Speaker 3: in your life or a step on a land mine,
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Speaker 3: but you can survive it and what you need to
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Speaker 3: do to pull yourself back together. So I don't really
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Speaker 3: mind talking about it. I think the issue for me,
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Speaker 3: which I don't like because it's a really poor reflection
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Speaker 3: on me is why did I actually go work for
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Speaker 3: Trump in the first place. I think that is a
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Speaker 3: poor reflection on me, and it speaks to perhaps a
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Speaker 3: weakness and character. It speaks to ego, and it speaks
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Speaker 3: to pride, because ultimately that was a prideful decision. It's
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Speaker 3: a cautionary tale about putting your ego and your pride
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Speaker 3: into your decision making.
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Speaker 1: So you didn't do it to serve the country. You
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Speaker 1: wanted to be in the White House.
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Speaker 3: No, I certainly did it to serve the country. But
6:36
Speaker 3: you have to understand you have a round peg in
6:38
Speaker 3: a square hole. Okay. I worked as a wall streeter
6:42
Speaker 3: for thirty years. I went to a couple of good schools.
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Speaker 3: I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood. Now I
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Speaker 3: can serve the American president. But the American president's crazy,
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Speaker 3: and so people that had their pride out of the equation,
6:56
Speaker 3: like my very good friend Vinnie Viola. I don't know
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Speaker 3: if you would recognize that name, but he ran virt
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Speaker 3: to as the president of the merk He was named
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Speaker 3: by Donald Trump to be the Secretary of the Army.
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Speaker 3: For two hour meetings with Trump, he withdrew himself from
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Speaker 3: the position, and when I asked him why he did it,
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Speaker 3: he said, you know, after spending more time with mister Trump,
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Speaker 3: I realized I really couldn't work for him. He didn't
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Speaker 3: have the right executive management skills, highly insecure person, he's
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Speaker 3: not able to share credit. Or resulted with withdrawing myself
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Speaker 3: in the position. And he too, was an army veteran,
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Speaker 3: went to you know, West Point, served the country, wanted
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Speaker 3: to be the Secretary of the Army, but he felt
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Speaker 3: it was incongruous with Trump's personality. I wasn't brave enough
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Speaker 3: to make that statement. I was smart enough, but my
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Speaker 3: ego is in the way.
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Speaker 5: Do you think Trump has deteriorated over the years. Do
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Speaker 5: you think he'd be worse next time round than he
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Speaker 5: was last time?
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Speaker 3: Well, he'll be significantly worse, but not because he's deteriorated.
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Speaker 3: I think everybody deteriorates over time. He's to be seventy
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Speaker 3: eight years old, so he's a little slower. But that's
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Speaker 3: not the issue for Trump. The issue for Trump is
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Speaker 3: that he's now experienced, he's now been in the White House.
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Speaker 3: He's lost the White House. If he gets the job again,
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Speaker 3: he'll be very, very dangerous. In that job. And he's
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Speaker 3: also got some very experienced campaign people with him now
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Speaker 3: that believe in the expansion of unitary executive power, and
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Speaker 3: this is very, very dangerous for the society.
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Speaker 5: Can you say a little bit more about the sort
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Speaker 5: of people he's got around him, because it seems to
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Speaker 5: me that they're different from last time. Last time had
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Speaker 5: a lot of Republican establishment, a lot of moderates, a
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Speaker 5: lot of people who didn't quite know what they were
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Speaker 5: getting themselves in. For this time, it seems to be
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Speaker 5: true believers.
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Speaker 1: Is that right?
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Speaker 3: I would say that that's right. A little bit of
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Speaker 3: a contrarian on this, because I really know the beast
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Speaker 3: of Donald Trump. He's such a name dropper, Adriana, it's
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Speaker 3: such a status state seeker that those people won't rise
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Speaker 3: in the cabinet. He's got them in the campaign now.
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Speaker 3: They're very discipline. I'll probably try to bring Manifort back
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Speaker 3: because Manafort has back channels at the foreign money. So
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Speaker 3: those people are loyalists to Trump, but also the idea
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Speaker 3: of massive expansion of executive power, and this is actually
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Speaker 3: a Dick Cheney concept. So this is like a Frankenstein
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Speaker 3: monster that was unleashed by Cheney in the early part
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Speaker 3: of the two thousands, perpetrated by him and George W. Bush.
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Speaker 3: And now it's become this Frankenstein golam of Donald Trump.
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Speaker 3: And so this is something that we have to stop immediately.
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Speaker 3: And then you have to ask yourself. Once Trumps stopped,
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Speaker 3: which I predict he will be stopped, what comes after
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Speaker 3: Donald Trump? Is there a worst monster coming? Or can
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Speaker 3: we renew the American experiment? Can we renew the American democracy?
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Speaker 1: What do you mean he'll be stopped? So you don't think,
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Speaker 1: first of all, how did he get the Republican nomination?
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Speaker 1: And you don't think he becomes president.
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Speaker 3: Well, he definitely doesn't become president. No, he doesn't have
9:56
Speaker 3: a he doesn't have the I have the look at
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Speaker 3: the data carefully. And you have to remember in the
10:02
Speaker 3: United States you have something called the Bradley effect. And
10:05
Speaker 3: so Mayor Tom Bradley, the first African American mayor in
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Speaker 3: our history, when he was running for real election, when
10:12
Speaker 3: the pollsters called they so you're voting for Mayor Bradley,
10:15
Speaker 3: people said yes. It was a nine point spread between
10:18
Speaker 3: the poll and the actual election. Bradley lost the election,
10:23
Speaker 3: and the people said they didn't want to appear racist
10:25
Speaker 3: to the person on the phone. They didn't want to
10:27
Speaker 3: vote for Bradley because I didn't think he was competent
10:29
Speaker 3: at his job, had nothing to do with his skin color.
10:32
Speaker 3: And so what's happening right now with Trump is that
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Speaker 3: there's more media exposure for him relative to Biden, and
10:39
Speaker 3: there's people that actually like what's going on at the border.
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Speaker 3: They're going to vote for Joe Biden, but they're telling
10:45
Speaker 3: people that they don't like what's going on at the border.
10:48
Speaker 3: And the other big issue for Donald Trump is that
10:50
Speaker 3: they're going to run the replay film of his full
10:53
Speaker 3: on insanity, the craziness of the insurrection, the insanity around
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Speaker 3: the COVID nineteen situation.
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Speaker 1: But how did you see what I'm saying I do?
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Speaker 1: But then how did he get the nomination?
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Speaker 3: You got the nomination because he's got an ardent support
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Speaker 3: base of twenty percent of the American population that feel
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Speaker 3: left out. And this is another problem with the United States,
11:17
Speaker 3: is another problem with the UK. Our political established and
11:21
Speaker 3: primarily baby boomers have failed these countries. Okay, specifically talking
11:27
Speaker 3: about the United States, the baby boomers are indulgent, they're selfish,
11:32
Speaker 3: they got passed up Aton from the greatest generation of
11:35
Speaker 3: a vanquished fascist fascism in Europe and architecture that rebuilt
11:42
Speaker 3: the world for peace and prosperity, led by the UK,
11:45
Speaker 3: the United States, and the family of liberal Western democracies.
11:51
Speaker 3: And so we've grown tired of it. That happens in history.
11:54
Speaker 3: If you study Barbara Tuckman's books The Guns of August
11:57
Speaker 3: as an example, we when we lose our time memory
12:00
Speaker 3: we're eighty years out from the D Day invasion now,
12:03
Speaker 3: and when we lose our wartime memory or living memory,
12:06
Speaker 3: we have a tendency to glorify war and we increase
12:11
Speaker 3: our propensity towards nationalism. So that's happening right now, and
12:16
Speaker 3: rather than going back to the principles that got us
12:20
Speaker 3: to where we are, our politicians become more tribal, that
12:24
Speaker 3: become more insular. It's also being helped by the former
12:28
Speaker 3: Soviet Union through their server farms. They're pushing a lot
12:32
Speaker 3: of this narrative into the Internet. It's a lot of
12:34
Speaker 3: garbage that's showing up on social media that references all
12:39
Speaker 3: of this, and Trump plays right into that.
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Speaker 5: Can I push you a bit on the Bradley effect
12:43
Speaker 5: because surely you could the opposite conclusion from the Bradley effect.
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Speaker 5: We have people in this country called shy conservatives. The
12:49
Speaker 5: number of people actually vote Conservative is generally bigger than
12:53
Speaker 5: the number of people who say they will, because people
12:55
Speaker 5: don't want to be associated with this slightly disreputable party
12:58
Speaker 5: in their mind. Isn't the same think true?
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Speaker 3: If Trump?
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Speaker 5: A lot of people will say they're not going to
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Speaker 5: vote for Trump, who actually when they go into the
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Speaker 5: ballot box say they unleashed that in the Trump I.
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Speaker 3: Would say that was true in twenty sixteen, It was
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Speaker 3: not true in twenty twenty. I don't believe it's the
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Speaker 3: case in twenty twenty four. And so what you're saying
13:17
Speaker 3: was a twenty sixteen phenomenon. But in twenty twenty four,
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Speaker 3: he's a known entity. He is does he has very
13:26
Speaker 3: high negatives. Nobody's won the presidency with this high of
13:30
Speaker 3: a negative. He has not won a plurality of Americans.
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Speaker 3: He's never had a higher approval rating above fifty percent
13:38
Speaker 3: at any time that he was in the presidency. But
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Speaker 3: I'm telling you, the American people are going to choose
13:44
Speaker 3: older and mildly forget fall to fall on INCENTI.
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Speaker 5: So surely a lot depends on whether Biden makes mistakes.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and people go and vote.
13:53
Speaker 5: Actually is if Biden makes a few crucial mistakes.
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Speaker 2: You know, I love you.
13:58
Speaker 3: I mean I'm gonna push can I put it? I
14:00
Speaker 3: pushed back on you too, because I love you, guys, Okay,
14:02
Speaker 3: because you you know, this is like the Davos set.
14:05
Speaker 3: We were in Davos together, right, and so I've been
14:08
Speaker 3: going to Davos for seventeen years. Davos is always wrong.
14:13
Speaker 3: In two thousand and seven, they told us that the
14:15
Speaker 3: trees were going to grow to the sky and we
14:17
Speaker 3: had solved all of our monetary policy problems. In two
14:20
Speaker 3: thousand and nine, in January, they said that the world
14:24
Speaker 3: was going to open and we're all falling into the earth.
14:27
Speaker 3: We're going to go to the worst depression since the
14:30
Speaker 3: nineteen twenties. We had the greatest bull market run in history.
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Speaker 3: Twenty sixteen, Davos said Hillary Clinton's going to be president.
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Speaker 3: There's no reason to have the election twenty twenty With
14:40
Speaker 3: absolute certainty Trump was going to win the election. Now
14:43
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four, Trump is going to win the election.
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Speaker 3: He's just not going to win.
14:49
Speaker 1: But I do think they're not going to win.
14:51
Speaker 5: I'm sorry, especially on the econoce your enemy.
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Speaker 1: In Davos, Jamie Diamond JP Morgan went on a rival
14:59
Speaker 1: channel and he said, let's just take a step back.
15:02
Speaker 1: He's kind of right about NATO, he's kind of right
15:04
Speaker 1: about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Is this
15:07
Speaker 1: economy going to let Joe Biden down?
15:10
Speaker 3: So with all respect to Jamie, because I think he's
15:13
Speaker 3: one of the smartest people that I've ever met. He's
15:16
Speaker 3: certainly one of the smartest people in the financial services.
15:19
Speaker 3: I have an intellectual disagreement with him on the crypto currency,
15:22
Speaker 3: specifically bitcoin, but he's a lot smarter than me, so
15:25
Speaker 3: I'll see economic points to him. But Trump lost twenty
15:30
Speaker 3: one million jobs on his watch. He totally and completely
15:36
Speaker 3: mishandled the COVID nineteen situation. He has no executive management skills,
15:41
Speaker 3: and he disorganized the executive branch of the United States,
15:45
Speaker 3: which includes nineteen cabinet and sub cabinet level agencies and
15:50
Speaker 3: departments that were paralyzed by Donald Trump in his Twitter account.
15:55
Speaker 3: And so he is the wrong guy for that job.
15:59
Speaker 3: You want to say, because let's be objective on your podcast,
16:03
Speaker 3: that he has points to be made on deregulation, has
16:08
Speaker 3: points to be made on economic growth. He does have
16:11
Speaker 3: those points. He blew the tax reform. He did nothing
16:16
Speaker 3: to help the twenty percent of the people that put
16:19
Speaker 3: him back in the nomination, his ardent supporters, he has
16:23
Speaker 3: done nothing for He's an avatar for their anger. He
16:27
Speaker 3: represents an orange wrecking ball into the establishment to smash
16:31
Speaker 3: the establishment.
16:32
Speaker 1: Me that because if you think, even if he's done
16:35
Speaker 1: nothing for you, if you think that there's one person
16:37
Speaker 1: that fights for you, you're going to get him reelected.
16:40
Speaker 3: It's not. He's not fighting for them as much as
16:43
Speaker 3: he's striking a match to the establishment. So he's done
16:48
Speaker 3: nothing for them. Joe Biden, through his legislative accomplishments in
16:52
Speaker 3: the last three years, has done way more for those people.
16:55
Speaker 3: But he's a very poor messenger because he's rail the
17:00
Speaker 3: people that voted for Lyndon Johnson or Jack Kennedy, you know,
17:04
Speaker 3: their grandparents or their great grandparents of votered for Franklin Roosevelt.
17:08
Speaker 3: Many of those people that are aligned with Trump now
17:10
Speaker 3: because the Democrats seeded those people. The establishment. Democrats said
17:15
Speaker 3: we're going to focus on transgender bathrooms pronoun usage DEI
17:20
Speaker 3: that's going to be our champion. In this generation. The
17:24
Speaker 3: white lower middle class and the working class have been
17:28
Speaker 3: leftist enfranchised by both parties. Like or dislike Donald Trump.
17:33
Speaker 3: He saw that he went into those communities. I win
17:36
Speaker 3: into those communities with them seventy one campaign stops with
17:39
Speaker 3: him on the Trump plane. I saw the blight in
17:42
Speaker 3: those communities. I grew up with those people. And again,
17:45
Speaker 3: this doesn't reflect well on me, but this is my
17:48
Speaker 3: cognitive bias because I've hung out in the salons of
17:51
Speaker 3: the wealthy, and I hung out at Davos, and I
17:54
Speaker 3: went to work at Goldman and I went to Harvard
17:56
Speaker 3: Law School. These people don't think like the blue collar
17:59
Speaker 3: people like grew up with. And so when I arrived
18:02
Speaker 3: on the Trump campaign in twenty sixteen and I was
18:05
Speaker 3: in New Mexico and somebody, a blue collar worker looked
18:09
Speaker 3: at me and said, oh, you think you're in New Mexico.
18:12
Speaker 3: New New Mexico. That would be Mexico because that's where
18:15
Speaker 3: the factory that I was working in my dad was
18:18
Speaker 3: working and moved to. So this is no longer New Mexico.
18:22
Speaker 3: And those people who Trump is a nothing for they'll
18:27
Speaker 3: vote for him anyway, because he wants to wreck the establishment.
18:29
Speaker 3: He wants to destroy the system, and they don't like
18:33
Speaker 3: the system because the system hasn't worked for them.
18:35
Speaker 5: How did the liberal astablishment get things so wrong? How
18:38
Speaker 5: did it create so much I think just often justified
18:41
Speaker 5: animosity against it.
18:42
Speaker 3: So complacency. They got very complacent. They took for granted
18:47
Speaker 3: the votes. Hillary Clinton looked at Wisconsin and said those
18:50
Speaker 3: are primarily union workers and blue collar people. She did
18:53
Speaker 3: not show up in Wisconsin. Trump went seven times to
18:56
Speaker 3: Wisconsin after the Republican convention. So his men messaging he's
19:00
Speaker 3: a look, he sucked as president, let's just be honest,
19:04
Speaker 3: and he sucks for the world order, and he sucks
19:07
Speaker 3: for peace and global prosperity. But he's a wonderful communicator
19:11
Speaker 3: and he's got tireless energy, and he resonates with a
19:15
Speaker 3: very large group of people that feel left out of
19:18
Speaker 3: the system.
19:19
Speaker 5: Do you think the liberal astablishment has learned anything from
19:22
Speaker 5: what happened in twenty sixteen?
19:24
Speaker 3: Joe Biden has Joe Biden put legislation in place for reshoring.
19:31
Speaker 3: He put the Chips Act in place, He passed an
19:34
Speaker 3: infrastructure built.
19:35
Speaker 1: I don't want to talk a bit about the UK.
19:36
Speaker 1: But if Donald Trump goes bankrupt, does that make a
19:40
Speaker 1: difference to the American psyche and the run up to
19:42
Speaker 1: the election.
19:43
Speaker 3: So not to his core base. They'll vote from no
19:46
Speaker 3: matter what bankrupt in jail. He could be campaigning with
19:51
Speaker 3: an orange suit on a zoom call from a jail cell.
19:55
Speaker 3: They're still going to vote for him. Okay, they've decided
19:58
Speaker 3: they're in that cult. They've decided he can do absolutely
20:01
Speaker 3: no wrong. But the people that matter are the independence,
20:06
Speaker 3: the suburban women are going to drive the selection of
20:09
Speaker 3: it again. You know, if you've got two movies that
20:12
Speaker 3: are playing in the United States in twenty twenty four,
20:14
Speaker 3: Weekend at Bernie's and One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest,
20:19
Speaker 3: I'm going weekend at Bernie's. I'll take one guy who's
20:22
Speaker 3: got one foot on a banana peel the other one
20:25
Speaker 3: in the casket over a guy that needs a lobotomy,
20:27
Speaker 3: that's certifiably crazy, that wants to demolish the post World
20:32
Speaker 3: War two architecture, wants to destroy the institutions of the
20:36
Speaker 3: American democracy.
20:38
Speaker 5: You've painted a pretty depressing picture of the choice that
20:43
Speaker 5: America faces in the next selection.
20:45
Speaker 3: I'm painting an accurate picture.
20:48
Speaker 5: Suppressing it's contradictory things. But how did you get into
20:51
Speaker 5: this position as a country is the most important country.
20:53
Speaker 2: In the world.
20:55
Speaker 3: So the answer to that, there's a couple of things
20:58
Speaker 3: that happened. One of them is Citizens United. One of
21:01
Speaker 3: them is Ross Perot. Ross Perot actually caused this. He
21:05
Speaker 3: didn't realize it at the time, but he scared the
21:08
Speaker 3: daylights out of the oligarchic duopoly known as the Demo Publicans. Okay,
21:14
Speaker 3: so they had a duopoly going quite strongly. Pero entered
21:18
Speaker 3: the race, got nineteen point nine percent of the vote.
21:21
Speaker 3: Freaked them out. So they strengthened their duopoly by going
21:26
Speaker 3: into the state and local governments and tightening the restrictions
21:30
Speaker 3: on having a third party enter a race. You know,
21:33
Speaker 3: you've got to get thousands and thousands of petitions, you
21:36
Speaker 3: have to follow this uh weird labyrinith of laws and
21:39
Speaker 3: procedures to get on the ballot. And they did all
21:42
Speaker 3: of this to strengthen the duopoly. They then ceded to
21:46
Speaker 3: each other's jerry mandering. And so for your UK listeners,
21:51
Speaker 3: that basically means these local governments, the state and local
21:55
Speaker 3: and the governors can look at the map and they
21:58
Speaker 3: can reconfigure the Congress district. So when I was growing
22:01
Speaker 3: up as a kid, these districts look like geometric shapes
22:05
Speaker 3: that you could recognize from ninth grade geometry. They now
22:08
Speaker 3: look like jigsaw puzzles pursuant to whose house is ware
22:13
Speaker 3: and they try to carve out they try to carve
22:15
Speaker 3: out their enemies. So the US actually needs a constitutional
22:20
Speaker 3: amendment on that. And so you're asking, so I want
22:22
Speaker 3: to keep going because I want to explain this to
22:24
Speaker 3: the people you have citizens United There was a very
22:28
Speaker 3: famous case in the United States called Plessy versus Ferguson.
22:31
Speaker 3: This case had to do with racial segregation. The court
22:35
Speaker 3: ruled that you could have separate but equal facilities in
22:38
Speaker 3: the United States, and this doomed any potential for the
22:43
Speaker 3: integration of the races in the America. This was an
22:47
Speaker 3: unmitigated disaster for the country. It was reversed by Brown
22:51
Speaker 3: versus the Board of Education. This has been a disaster
22:55
Speaker 3: for the United States. And so Justice Scalia wrote the opinion.
22:58
Speaker 3: What did he say, if you have unlimited amounts of money,
23:01
Speaker 3: it's your first Amendment right to use that money in
23:04
Speaker 3: the political process. You can set up a pack and
23:07
Speaker 3: you can spend unlimited amounts of money, and they accidentally
23:11
Speaker 3: created a separate but equal democracy. And so now go
23:15
Speaker 3: look at the legislative accomplishments of that Congress, which is
23:18
Speaker 3: primarily a failed system now because they get nothing done.
23:22
Speaker 3: But when they do get something done, it's corporate welfare,
23:25
Speaker 3: it's skleptocracy. It's a big pharma, big food. Put fertilizer
23:32
Speaker 3: in the cheerios. No problem. I'm going to get re
23:35
Speaker 3: elected if we do that. And you have this caribdis
23:38
Speaker 3: of nonsense is taking place inside the United States as
23:42
Speaker 3: a result of all this money flowing into the system.
23:45
Speaker 3: So that core case has to be reversed or there
23:48
Speaker 3: needs to be a constitutional amendment to make the democracy
23:52
Speaker 3: farer again, because it's a two tiered system now. So
23:55
Speaker 3: that's how we got there. Fourteen percent approval rating for
23:58
Speaker 3: the Congress at a ninety four percent reelection rate for
24:04
Speaker 3: an incumbent. So what other group of people could have
24:07
Speaker 3: a one out of five consumer rating and not care
24:11
Speaker 3: about it. It's these people because they rig the system
24:15
Speaker 3: and the politicians are picking the voters through jerry mandering
24:18
Speaker 3: as opposed to the voters picking the politician. The United
24:21
Speaker 3: States is being victimized right now by not having the
24:25
Speaker 3: DNA to understand fascism. Everybody here in Europe understands it
24:30
Speaker 3: because they have legacy from their families. The Americans missed it,
24:35
Speaker 3: so we have no memory of fascism, a result of
24:39
Speaker 3: which we glorify at least a group of US do
24:42
Speaker 3: people like Donald Trump. Here in Europe, they look at
24:45
Speaker 3: it and say, well, wait a minute, my grandfather died
24:47
Speaker 3: because of this, or my uncle died, and they worry
24:51
Speaker 3: about fascists.
24:52
Speaker 5: The rights in Europe is gathering strength.
24:56
Speaker 3: So the right in Europe is gathering strength because the
24:59
Speaker 3: war time memories are fading and a result of which
25:04
Speaker 3: the educational system is not pressing the people hard enough
25:08
Speaker 3: to understand the horror of what that represents. And so
25:12
Speaker 3: we don't have that in the US, and so we
25:14
Speaker 3: need that Bitcoin.
25:17
Speaker 1: You were an early adopter.
25:18
Speaker 3: I wish that. You're very flattering. I wish I was
25:20
Speaker 3: an early adopter. I actually am an early adopter for
25:23
Speaker 3: an old man who grew up in traditional finance, so
25:27
Speaker 3: I was four years I had a black rock. But
25:29
Speaker 3: I'm not an early adopter.
25:30
Speaker 1: The early adopter for a pre long time.
25:33
Speaker 3: I have, yeah, and I took a lot of bullets
25:35
Speaker 3: and was involved in the FDx fiasco which cost me
25:40
Speaker 3: a lot. But I believe long term in the technical
25:46
Speaker 3: properties of bitcoin, and I believe that the network effect
25:50
Speaker 3: bitcoin will be incredibly valuable, and bitcoin will emerge as
25:54
Speaker 3: a digital store of value. And it may not be
25:57
Speaker 3: for my generation, it will certainly be for my children
26:00
Speaker 3: that are thirty years younger than me. And you know,
26:04
Speaker 3: and the good news is people like Larry Fink, who
26:06
Speaker 3: when I first met with him, he hated bitcoin, but
26:11
Speaker 3: now he's been orange pilled by the bitcoiners and he
26:13
Speaker 3: has the largest, most successful ETF in his history in
26:18
Speaker 3: black Rock's history as a result of waiting into the
26:22
Speaker 3: pool with us. So so you know, bitcoin is here
26:24
Speaker 3: to stay, and you know it will trade in my opinion,
26:29
Speaker 3: to the market capitalization of gold over the next decade.
26:33
Speaker 1: I was going to ask about gold because there's something
26:34
Speaker 1: funny in the markets, right Gold up? Bitcoin? Op that's
26:37
Speaker 1: a little bit counterintuitive, Like what's going on in markets?
26:41
Speaker 3: I don't I don't think so. I think what's going
26:43
Speaker 3: on in marc is is that there's been a massive
26:46
Speaker 3: production and massive proliferation of fiat currency. What's going on
26:51
Speaker 3: in Marcus is a massive debt laden society now and
26:55
Speaker 3: people are trying to figure out, well, is that sustainable.
26:58
Speaker 3: It may be sustainable for the next decade, but it
27:00
Speaker 3: is sustainable for a century. Doesn't seem like it would
27:04
Speaker 3: be a result of which where can I put my money?
27:07
Speaker 3: Where I can store value and I can protect the money.
27:10
Speaker 3: So both of those places one is five thousand year
27:14
Speaker 3: old history of storing value in and the other one
27:17
Speaker 3: is a newer technology, and so I think that there's
27:22
Speaker 3: a marketplace for both of those things. And so it
27:25
Speaker 3: doesn't not make sense to me. You know that three
27:29
Speaker 3: four five percent in each of those while we're going
27:31
Speaker 3: through this. But remember you're operating in the United States
27:35
Speaker 3: now with six percent of the GDP is going to
27:40
Speaker 3: deficit spending. So you have to just think about how
27:43
Speaker 3: remarkable that is. And you have to look at the
27:45
Speaker 3: scale of the percentage of the national debt to the
27:48
Speaker 3: overall GDP of the country. It's now through World War
27:52
Speaker 3: two levels, but right now we're not fighting World War two,
27:55
Speaker 3: and so you have to ask yourself, what are we doing?
27:57
Speaker 3: What are we doing? We're over promising and we're under delivering.
28:02
Speaker 3: And just for all your viewers and listeners, listen up.
28:06
Speaker 3: Deficit spending is unfunded tax liability. Okay, someone's gonna pay it. Okay,
28:12
Speaker 3: maybe it won't be you, but it'll be your grandchildren.
28:15
Speaker 3: And how will they pay it. Well, they'll depreciate the
28:18
Speaker 3: Fiat currency, they'll monetize the debt. They'll pay back the
28:22
Speaker 3: debt with dollars that are worth less than the ones
28:24
Speaker 3: that they borrowed, and that will crush living standards for
28:28
Speaker 3: the lower and middle class. And these are the people
28:31
Speaker 3: that will show up at a Bernie Sanders rally where
28:33
Speaker 3: Donald Trump rally because they're upset about it. They don't
28:35
Speaker 3: like the fact that you're stealing their time and energy.
28:39
Speaker 5: Come, how come this deficit spending is not an issue
28:42
Speaker 5: in the election. It's pretty extraordinary.
28:46
Speaker 3: Well, it's a it's not an issue because the people
28:49
Speaker 3: that vote are older, and the people that vote that
28:52
Speaker 3: are older they want those benefits. Donald Trump's not stupid,
28:56
Speaker 3: Joe Biden, and both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have said,
28:59
Speaker 3: even though the absolute wrong thing to do, they're not
29:02
Speaker 3: going to correct the issues related to entitlement obligations in
29:07
Speaker 3: the United States. Older voters like that they want those benefits,
29:11
Speaker 3: and so therefore it's not an issue. But will it
29:13
Speaker 3: be an issue down the road if there's a fiscal
29:17
Speaker 3: or a debt crisis for the United States. Now that
29:19
Speaker 3: the best thing that the United States has going for
29:21
Speaker 3: it are the other countries also the US because of
29:25
Speaker 3: the predictability of the laws, the legal system, the flow
29:29
Speaker 3: of capital, the mantle of financial services leadership, the fact
29:32
Speaker 3: that we have the largest military, and the fact that
29:35
Speaker 3: the most important commodity, oil is priced in US dollars
29:40
Speaker 3: makes the dollar the global reserve currency. And so for
29:43
Speaker 3: all of those reasons, the US should be able to
29:46
Speaker 3: maintain its leadership if it gets the right political leaders
29:50
Speaker 3: gets the right policies. But this generation of leaders has
29:55
Speaker 3: failed the country. We all know that. The other question is, well,
29:58
Speaker 3: the next generation where our children do better than us?
30:01
Speaker 3: And I hope so, otherwise there'll be a big crisis.
30:03
Speaker 5: Can you see a next generation? Can you identify some
30:06
Speaker 5: people who might be the leaders of the future.
30:10
Speaker 3: No, I can't see it off the top of my head,
30:12
Speaker 3: but I predict that they're going to be better than us.
30:15
Speaker 3: I predict that there'll be more data dependent they'll be
30:19
Speaker 3: a little bit more technocratic than we were, and I
30:23
Speaker 3: think that they'll tighten the belt where necessary. And by
30:26
Speaker 3: the way, I mean you talk about depressing, let's talk
30:29
Speaker 3: about something optimistic. Every one of these problems is fixable.
30:33
Speaker 3: As Jack Kennedy once said, we made the problems. Man.
30:38
Speaker 3: He said man. Could have said man and woman when
30:40
Speaker 3: it was nineteen sixties. So he said man, and he
30:43
Speaker 3: said man can fix the problems. Okay, so maybe men
30:45
Speaker 3: and women can fix the problems. But we can fix
30:48
Speaker 3: the problems. But there's nobody in the West that has
30:51
Speaker 3: a ten or fifteen year plan to fix the problem.
30:55
Speaker 3: You know, you could fix the deficit, no problem, and
30:57
Speaker 3: take twenty five years to do it to bipartisan commitment.
31:01
Speaker 3: But if you could explain to the American people, look, this
31:04
Speaker 3: is what we need to do. It's not left, it's
31:06
Speaker 3: not right. It's about right or wrong. This is the
31:09
Speaker 3: policies that we need to put in place. If we
31:11
Speaker 3: do this for twenty five years, we can bring the
31:14
Speaker 3: deficit down and we sustain the economic and therefore the
31:19
Speaker 3: national security of our country if we do this. But
31:23
Speaker 3: the current political leadership doesn't want to do so.
31:25
Speaker 1: This is a G seven problem. The UK has a
31:27
Speaker 1: similar problem, right.
31:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, well I'm speaking in an American centric gue because
31:32
Speaker 3: I'm an American, but yes, the UK has this problem.
31:35
Speaker 3: The French have this problem, the Germans have the problem. Yeah,
31:39
Speaker 3: this is a problem. This is a cultural problem because
31:44
Speaker 3: politicians need to get re elected to serve themselves more
31:49
Speaker 3: than they want to serve the people that they're supposedly serving. Okay,
31:53
Speaker 3: if this was about public service as opposed to personal power,
31:57
Speaker 3: we would never be making the decisions the way we're the.
32:00
Speaker 1: And then SCAMOCHI, thank you so much for joining us.
32:03
Speaker 3: Okay, nice to be here. Thank you guys.
32:06
Speaker 1: So it was a really fun conversation and it was
32:07
Speaker 1: a good insight into Donald Trump's psychology as a man
32:11
Speaker 1: who was president. My main takeaway is that Scaramucci does
32:14
Speaker 1: not think he'll be president again because he thinks the
32:16
Speaker 1: poles are off. So he says, when pollsters call your
32:19
Speaker 1: house in America, a lot of people say they'll vote
32:22
Speaker 1: for Trump because it sounds patriotic, but actually they'll vote
32:26
Speaker 1: for Biden, even if they're a bit.
32:27
Speaker 4: Of shame with the sort of secret Biden Biden lovers
32:32
Speaker 4: lovers really working in the.
32:34
Speaker 1: Back I haven't heard that before. Yeah, you know, Brexit,
32:36
Speaker 1: we had like the secret Brexit years, which is why
32:38
Speaker 1: the polls are off. So it's an interesting dynamic that
32:41
Speaker 1: he thinks it's this way around.
32:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, a lot more polls for us to chew
32:44
Speaker 4: over over the coming months, not least the Bloomberg one
32:47
Speaker 4: that we're running every month, but I think talking of
32:49
Speaker 4: shameless plugs that we had at the beginning, another one.
32:51
Speaker 4: I'm coming here because we are going to be starting
32:54
Speaker 4: to make a bonus show that's going to be hitting
32:57
Speaker 4: your feeds every week, and it is tackle This subject
33:01
Speaker 4: is this is the year of elections all around the world.
33:03
Speaker 4: It's also the year that geo politics is really crashing
33:07
Speaker 4: into boardrooms as well, and business people are trying to
33:09
Speaker 4: work out how to navigate all of the political turmoil
33:12
Speaker 4: that we're going to see all around this year. So
33:14
Speaker 4: our new podcast is called voter Nomics.
33:18
Speaker 1: Voteronomics.
33:19
Speaker 4: Voter Nomics you heard it here first and listen every
33:25
Speaker 4: week coming soon, and we're going to be tapping into
33:27
Speaker 4: the biggest brains in the newsroom here on geopolitics and economics,
33:32
Speaker 4: including Stephanie Flanders, who runs Bloomberg Economics, and government all
33:36
Speaker 4: around the world.
33:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, Allegra, Adrian Woolridge and yourself. It'll be fun.
33:42
Speaker 4: Absolutely can't wait.
33:46
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's in the City from Bloomberg.
33:48
Speaker 1: This episode was hosted by me Francin Laqua with David
33:51
Speaker 1: Merriage and featuring opinion calumnist Adrian Woolridge. It was produced
33:55
Speaker 1: by Samrosari, additional editing by Rishie bou Jaykle. Brendan Newman
33:58
Speaker 1: is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts
34:02
Speaker 1: and Special thanks to Anthony's Garamucci. Please subscribe, review rate
34:06
Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts.